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000
FXUS63 KLBF 051139
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
639 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED NWD
FROM NEW MEXICO INTO FAR NORTHERN CANADA. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A
CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER INDIANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEST OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NOTED FROM EASTERN MONTANA...SWD INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...3 AM READINGS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S UNDERNEATH THE HIGH IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RIDGING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...WILL TRANSITION EAST. WARMER H85 AIR WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. BY 21Z...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM 17C IN THE NE..TO 22C IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH PLATTE SETTLED AROUND
80 FOR A HIGH WITH THE MAV AND MET FCSTING 82 AND 80 RESPECTIVELY.
INHERITED FCST HAD 81 FOR A HIGH AND FELT IT RIGHT ON TRACK ATTM.
LATE IN THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE...WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
LEND A BOOST TO TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...BUT IN
THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST AS A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST THROUGH CA AND INTO AZ AND NV. A VERY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 80S.
DEEP MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORT FORECASTED HIGHS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
EVENING...AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE NE/KS BORDER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY NOTED FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE H850MB FRONT AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

MODELS TONIGHT AGREE THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR TSTMS. APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CARRY TSTM ACTIVITY NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SHEAR QUICKLY DECREASES
NORTH INTO OUR AREA HOWEVER...SO ANY SEVERE /MOSTLY HAIL THREAT/
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

MODELS DIVERGE SOME SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. IT COMES ACROSS IN
PIECES. WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE OR DECREASE
POPS WHEN IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE
RESIDES AS THE DISTURBANCES/PIECES MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH THE KLBF AND
KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING AT
10 KTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS THIS EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE...NORTH PLATTE...MAINSTREAM
PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT.
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND MAINSTEM PLATTE RIVER...RIVER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY. ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT
LEWELLEN...THE RIVER LEVEL WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY AT 7.5 TO
7.8 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS JUST ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE
OF 7.5 FEET. ELSEWHERE...THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH
AT ATKINSON. THE STAGE THIS EVENING WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ACTION
STAGE AND RIVER LEVELS CONTINUED TO FALL AT THIS LOCATION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BUTTLER
HYDROLOGY...BUTTLER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 050901
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED NWD
FROM NEW MEXICO INTO FAR NORTHERN CANADA. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A
CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER INDIANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEST OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NOTED FROM EASTERN MONTANA...SWD INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...3 AM READINGS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S UNDERNEATH THE HIGH IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RIDGING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...WILL TRANSITION EAST. WARMER H85 AIR WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. BY 21Z...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM 17C IN THE NE..TO 22C IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH PLATTE SETTLED AROUND
80 FOR A HIGH WITH THE MAV AND MET FCSTING 82 AND 80 RESPECTIVELY.
INHERITED FCST HAD 81 FOR A HIGH AND FELT IT RIGHT ON TRACK ATTM.
LATE IN THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE...WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
LEND A BOOST TO TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...BUT IN
THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST AS A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST THROUGH CA AND INTO AZ AND NV. A VERY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 80S.
DEEP MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORT FORECASTED HIGHS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
EVENING...AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE NE/KS BORDER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY NOTED FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE H850MB FRONT AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

MODELS TONIGHT AGREE THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR TSTMS. APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CARRY TSTM ACTIVITY NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SHEAR QUICKLY DECREASES
NORTH INTO OUR AREA HOWEVER...SO ANY SEVERE /MOSTLY HAIL THREAT/
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

MODELS DIVERGE SOME SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. IT COMES ACROSS IN
PIECES. WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE OR DECREASE
POPS WHEN IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE
RESIDES AS THE DISTURBANCES/PIECES MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWEST. VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE...NORTH PLATTE...MAINSTREAM
PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT.
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND MAINSTEM PLATTE RIVER...RIVER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY. ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT
LEWELLEN...THE RIVER LEVEL WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY AT 7.5 TO
7.8 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS JUST ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE
OF 7.5 FEET. ELSEWHERE...THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH
AT ATKINSON. THE STAGE THIS EVENING WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ACTION
STAGE AND RIVER LEVELS CONTINUED TO FALL AT THIS LOCATION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...BUTTLER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 050901
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED NWD
FROM NEW MEXICO INTO FAR NORTHERN CANADA. EAST OF THE RIDGE...A
CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER INDIANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEST OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NOTED FROM EASTERN MONTANA...SWD INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...3 AM READINGS
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S UNDERNEATH THE HIGH IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...TO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS...PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RIDGING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...WILL TRANSITION EAST. WARMER H85 AIR WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. BY 21Z...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FORM 17C IN THE NE..TO 22C IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH PLATTE SETTLED AROUND
80 FOR A HIGH WITH THE MAV AND MET FCSTING 82 AND 80 RESPECTIVELY.
INHERITED FCST HAD 81 FOR A HIGH AND FELT IT RIGHT ON TRACK ATTM.
LATE IN THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE...WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH...WILL
LEND A BOOST TO TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY...BUT IN
THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST AS A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY
MIGRATES EAST THROUGH CA AND INTO AZ AND NV. A VERY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 80S.
DEEP MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORT FORECASTED HIGHS.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY
EVENING...AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE NE/KS BORDER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY NOTED FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE H850MB FRONT AS A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

MODELS TONIGHT AGREE THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT LIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...BUT AS MENTIONED REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON IMPRESSIVE JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR TSTMS. APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CARRY TSTM ACTIVITY NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SHEAR QUICKLY DECREASES
NORTH INTO OUR AREA HOWEVER...SO ANY SEVERE /MOSTLY HAIL THREAT/
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT.

MODELS DIVERGE SOME SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. IT COMES ACROSS IN
PIECES. WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS INTO
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE OR DECREASE
POPS WHEN IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE
RESIDES AS THE DISTURBANCES/PIECES MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWEST. VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE...NORTH PLATTE...MAINSTREAM
PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT.
ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND MAINSTEM PLATTE RIVER...RIVER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE ACTION STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY. ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT
LEWELLEN...THE RIVER LEVEL WAS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY AT 7.5 TO
7.8 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS JUST ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE
OF 7.5 FEET. ELSEWHERE...THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH
AT ATKINSON. THE STAGE THIS EVENING WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ACTION
STAGE AND RIVER LEVELS CONTINUED TO FALL AT THIS LOCATION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...BUTTLER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 050456 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WAA FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
WARMING...WITH HIGHS TAPPING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON THURSDAY.  THE OPPORTUNITY OF A FROST OR FREEZE IS LOW OVERNIGHT
AS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA HELPS KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE
TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION. TD/S
ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 22-
32% RANGE.

THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF
THE MET...MAV AND CONSALL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE WAS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY AFTN...ABOUT 30 MILES FARTHER
SOUTH...PLACING THE FRONT ALONG THE KS BORDER. THIS COULD BE THE
RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FIRING ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING. MULTI-MODEL SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS SWRN NEB AND ENHANCED ACROSS NWRN KS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THE MODELS WILL TREND NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS SWRN NEB. SFC
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AND THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH INTO KS BUT STILL INCLUDES SWRN NEB WHERE POOLING APPEARS
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE 700MB CAP LATE SATURDAY AFTN. 30 TO 40 POPS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SWRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 80S. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS MIXES TO 750MB WHILE THE COOLER NAM PREFERS
725MB. LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. THERE IS STILL AN CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY FRIDAY AFTN WHICH COULD
SPREAD EAST FRIDAY EVENING NORTH OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS AND EXIT TUESDAY. SPAGHETTI
PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS USING THIS MORNINGS MODEL
DATA INDICATE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF
NEBRASKA SUNDAY BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY WELL SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARD
THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS...CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS DROPPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. H500MB TEMPERATURES IN ALL MODELS ARE -15C OR
COLDER.

COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWEST. VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL LARGER
RIVERS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING BANKFULL.  THE HIGH FLOWS ARE A
COMBINATION OF THE RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THE BEGINNING
ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN AND
LISCO ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  THE
LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS THE NORTH PLATTE AT LEWELLEN TO CLIMB ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.  THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IS STILL BEHAVING...BUT
RISING.  RVS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ROSCOE...SOUTH PLATTE
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE AND THE PLATTE CHANNEL NEAR BRADY.  THIS COMING
WEEKEND WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE
EYE AS RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





000
FXUS63 KLBF 042325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WAA FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
WARMING...WITH HIGHS TAPPING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON THURSDAY.  THE OPPORTUNITY OF A FROST OR FREEZE IS LOW OVERNIGHT
AS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA HELPS KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE
TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION. TD/S
ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 22-
32% RANGE.

THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF
THE MET...MAV AND CONSALL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE WAS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY AFTN...ABOUT 30 MILES FARTHER
SOUTH...PLACING THE FRONT ALONG THE KS BORDER. THIS COULD BE THE
RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FIRING ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING. MULTI-MODEL SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS SWRN NEB AND ENHANCED ACROSS NWRN KS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THE MODELS WILL TREND NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS SWRN NEB. SFC
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AND THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH INTO KS BUT STILL INCLUDES SWRN NEB WHERE POOLING APPEARS
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE 700MB CAP LATE SATURDAY AFTN. 30 TO 40 POPS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SWRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 80S. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS MIXES TO 750MB WHILE THE COOLER NAM PREFERS
725MB. LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. THERE IS STILL AN CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY FRIDAY AFTN WHICH COULD
SPREAD EAST FRIDAY EVENING NORTH OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS AND EXIT TUESDAY. SPAGHETTI
PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS USING THIS MORNINGS MODEL
DATA INDICATE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF
NEBRASKA SUNDAY BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY WELL SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARD
THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS...CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS DROPPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. H500MB TEMPERATURES IN ALL MODELS ARE -15C OR
COLDER.

COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWEST. VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL LARGER
RIVERS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING BANKFULL.  THE HIGH FLOWS ARE A
COMBINATION OF THE RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THE BEGINNING
ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN AND
LISCO ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  THE
LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS THE NORTH PLATTE AT LEWELLEN TO CLIMB ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.  THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IS STILL BEHAVING...BUT
RISING.  RVS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ROSCOE...SOUTH PLATTE
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE AND THE PLATTE CHANNEL NEAR BRADY.  THIS COMING
WEEKEND WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE
EYE AS RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





000
FXUS63 KLBF 042325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WAA FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
WARMING...WITH HIGHS TAPPING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON THURSDAY.  THE OPPORTUNITY OF A FROST OR FREEZE IS LOW OVERNIGHT
AS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA HELPS KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE
TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION. TD/S
ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 22-
32% RANGE.

THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF
THE MET...MAV AND CONSALL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE WAS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY AFTN...ABOUT 30 MILES FARTHER
SOUTH...PLACING THE FRONT ALONG THE KS BORDER. THIS COULD BE THE
RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FIRING ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING. MULTI-MODEL SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS SWRN NEB AND ENHANCED ACROSS NWRN KS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THE MODELS WILL TREND NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS SWRN NEB. SFC
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AND THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH INTO KS BUT STILL INCLUDES SWRN NEB WHERE POOLING APPEARS
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE 700MB CAP LATE SATURDAY AFTN. 30 TO 40 POPS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SWRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 80S. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS MIXES TO 750MB WHILE THE COOLER NAM PREFERS
725MB. LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. THERE IS STILL AN CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY FRIDAY AFTN WHICH COULD
SPREAD EAST FRIDAY EVENING NORTH OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS AND EXIT TUESDAY. SPAGHETTI
PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS USING THIS MORNINGS MODEL
DATA INDICATE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF
NEBRASKA SUNDAY BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY WELL SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARD
THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS...CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS DROPPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. H500MB TEMPERATURES IN ALL MODELS ARE -15C OR
COLDER.

COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHWEST. VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL LARGER
RIVERS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING BANKFULL.  THE HIGH FLOWS ARE A
COMBINATION OF THE RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THE BEGINNING
ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN AND
LISCO ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  THE
LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS THE NORTH PLATTE AT LEWELLEN TO CLIMB ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.  THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IS STILL BEHAVING...BUT
RISING.  RVS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ROSCOE...SOUTH PLATTE
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE AND THE PLATTE CHANNEL NEAR BRADY.  THIS COMING
WEEKEND WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE
EYE AS RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





000
FXUS63 KLBF 041956
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WAA FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
WARMING...WITH HIGHS TAPPING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON THURSDAY.  THE OPPORTUNITY OF A FROST OR FREEZE IS LOW OVERNIGHT
AS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA HELPS KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE
TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION. TD/S
ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 22-
32% RANGE.

THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF
THE MET...MAV AND CONSALL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE WAS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY AFTN...ABOUT 30 MILES FARTHER
SOUTH...PLACING THE FRONT ALONG THE KS BORDER. THIS COULD BE THE
RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FIRING ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING. MULTI-MODEL SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS SWRN NEB AND ENHANCED ACROSS NWRN KS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THE MODELS WILL TREND NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS SWRN NEB. SFC
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AND THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH INTO KS BUT STILL INCLUDES SWRN NEB WHERE POOLING APPEARS
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE 700MB CAP LATE SATURDAY AFTN. 30 TO 40 POPS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SWRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 80S. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS MIXES TO 750MB WHILE THE COOLER NAM PREFERS
725MB. LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. THERE IS STILL AN CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY FRIDAY AFTN WHICH COULD
SPREAD EAST FRIDAY EVENING NORTH OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS AND EXIT TUESDAY. SPAGHETTI
PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS USING THIS MORNINGS MODEL
DATA INDICATE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF
NEBRASKA SUNDAY BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY WELL SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARD
THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS...CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS DROPPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. H500MB TEMPERATURES IN ALL MODELS ARE -15C OR
COLDER.

COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS. VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL LARGER
RIVERS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING BANKFULL.  THE HIGH FLOWS ARE A
COMBINATION OF THE RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THE BEGINNING
ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN AND
LISCO ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  THE
LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS THE NORTH PLATTE AT LEWELLEN TO CLIMB ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.  THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IS STILL BEHAVING...BUT
RISING.  RVS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ROSCOE...SOUTH PLATTE
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE AND THE PLATTE CHANNEL NEAR BRADY.  THIS COMING
WEEKEND WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE
EYE AS RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





000
FXUS63 KLBF 041726
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER LEVELS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST.
IN BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORNING FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT AND NO FOG IS EXPECTED. ANY FOG THAT
COULD DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED...HOWEVER WITH MOST
SITES HAVING A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGREES T/TD SPREAD...FOG LOOKS
UNLIKELY.

RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM UP.
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS
C...WITH GUIDANCE FOLLOW WHICH PUTS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S. A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE HIGHS AROUND
70.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT...WELL AT LEAST SEEMS
MILD COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK.
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED...THIS IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTWERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AND MID 80S AT MOST
LOCALS FRIDAY.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A
LIMITING FACTOR HERE IS THE LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING NORTHWARD...H850MB
DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 4C TO 6C RANGE...AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WEAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE POPS DUE TO THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED BY THIS TIME...WITH SOME POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. H850MB DEW POINTS PROJECTED TO BE 10C TO
12C NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STEEP ACR0SS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL CREATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS...AND
AGREE WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS/GEFS IS SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
ACROSS KANSAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONGER
TSTMS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH JUST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS OUR IMMEDIATE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK...AND INDICATES THE WARM FRONT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINING IN OUR AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS. VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL
NEAR OR AT BANK FULL. THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS
CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY
AS A RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE EYE AS RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY
SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 041118
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
618 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER LEVELS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INBETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORNING FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT AND NO FOG IS EXPECTED. ANY FOG THAT
COULD DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED...HOWEVER WITH MOST
SITES HAVING A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGREES T/TD SPREAD...FOG LOOKS
UNLIKELY.

RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM UP.
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS
C...WITH GUIDANCE FOLLOW WHICH PUTS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S. A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE HIGHS AROUND
70.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT...WELL AT LEAST SEEMS
MILD COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK.
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED...THIS IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTWERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AND MID 80S AT MOST
LOCALS FRIDAY.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A
LIMITING FACTOR HERE IS THE LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING NORTHWARD...H850MB
DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 4C TO 6C RANGE...AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WEAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE POPS DUE TO THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED BY THIS TIME...WITH SOME POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. H850MB DEW POINTS PROJECTED TO BE 10C TO
12C NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STEEP ACR0SS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL CREATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS...AND
AGREE WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS/GEFS IS SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
ACROSS KANSAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONGER
TSTMS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH JUST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS OUR IMMEDIATE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK...AND INDICATES THE WARM FRONT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINING IN OUR AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME NORTHERLY NEAR 10
KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL
NEAR OR AT BANK FULL. THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS
CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY
AS A RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE EYE AS RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY
SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 041118
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
618 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER LEVELS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST.
INBETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA AND WINDS ARE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORNING FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT AND NO FOG IS EXPECTED. ANY FOG THAT
COULD DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED...HOWEVER WITH MOST
SITES HAVING A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGREES T/TD SPREAD...FOG LOOKS
UNLIKELY.

RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM UP.
850 MB TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS
C...WITH GUIDANCE FOLLOW WHICH PUTS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S. A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE HIGHS AROUND
70.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT...WELL AT LEAST SEEMS
MILD COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK.
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED...THIS IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTWERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AND MID 80S AT MOST
LOCALS FRIDAY.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A
LIMITING FACTOR HERE IS THE LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING NORTHWARD...H850MB
DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 4C TO 6C RANGE...AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WEAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE POPS DUE TO THE LIMITED
MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
MOISTURE WILL HAVE INCREASED BY THIS TIME...WITH SOME POOLING OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. H850MB DEW POINTS PROJECTED TO BE 10C TO
12C NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STEEP ACR0SS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR WILL CREATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS...AND
AGREE WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS/GEFS IS SOUTH WITH THE TRACK
ACROSS KANSAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONGER
TSTMS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH JUST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS OUR IMMEDIATE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK...AND INDICATES THE WARM FRONT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS REMAINING IN OUR AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT
NORTHWEST/VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME NORTHERLY NEAR 10
KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL
NEAR OR AT BANK FULL. THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS
CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY
AS A RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS COMING WEEKEND WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE EYE AS RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY
SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 040850
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER LEVELS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST. INBETWEEN BOTH
SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AND WINDS ARE
LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORNING FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT AND NO FOG IS EXPECTED. ANY FOG THAT COULD
DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED...HOWEVER WITH MOST SITES HAVING
A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGREES T/TD SPREAD...FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY.

RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM UP. 850
MB TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS C...WITH
GUIDANCE FOLLOW WHICH PUTS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE HIGHS AROUND 70.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT...WELL AT LEAST SEEMS
MILD COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK. WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED...THIS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTWERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CETRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMEPRATURES. THURSDAY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AND MID 80S AT MOST LOCALS FRIDAY.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LIMITING FACTOR HERE IS THE
LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF RETURNING NORTHWARD...H850MB DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 4C
TO 6C RANGE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WEAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE
WILL HAVE INCREASED BY THIS TIME...WITH SOME POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. H850MB DEW POINTS PROJECTED TO BE 10C TO 12C
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STEEP ACR0SS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR WILL CREATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS...AND AGREE WITH
SPC HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS/GEFS IS SOUTH WITH THE TRACK ACROSS
KANSAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONGER TSTMS SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH JUST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS OUR
IMMEDIATE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE TRACK...AND INDICATES THE WARM FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS REMAINING IN OUR AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND HAVE REMOVED IT FROM KLBF TAF. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL NEAR
OR AT BANK FULL. THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS CURRENTLY JUST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY AS A RISE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COMING WEEKEND
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE EYE AS
RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 040850
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER LEVELS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE WEST WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST. INBETWEEN BOTH
SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AND WINDS ARE
LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MORNING FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER MODELS ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT AND NO FOG IS EXPECTED. ANY FOG THAT COULD
DEVELOP WILL BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED...HOWEVER WITH MOST SITES HAVING
A GOOD 3 TO 5 DEGREES T/TD SPREAD...FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY.

RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE CONTINUED WARM UP. 850
MB TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN NEB TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER TEENS C...WITH
GUIDANCE FOLLOW WHICH PUTS HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A LITTLE
COOLER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...WHERE HIGHS AROUND 70.

TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND MILD NIGHT...WELL AT LEAST SEEMS
MILD COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST WEEK. WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EXPECTED...THIS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTWERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE CETRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH A THERMAL RIDGE AND VERY WARM TEMEPRATURES. THURSDAY
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...AND MID 80S AT MOST LOCALS FRIDAY.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST TOWARD OUR
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LIMITING FACTOR HERE IS THE
LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF RETURNING NORTHWARD...H850MB DEW POINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 4C
TO 6C RANGE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WEAK. WILL MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT
INCREASE POPS DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THAT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE
WILL HAVE INCREASED BY THIS TIME...WITH SOME POOLING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. H850MB DEW POINTS PROJECTED TO BE 10C TO 12C
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE STEEP ACR0SS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 70S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR WILL CREATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS...AND AGREE WITH
SPC HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SUPERCELL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS/GEFS IS SOUTH WITH THE TRACK ACROSS
KANSAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY KEEP THE THREAT OF STRONGER TSTMS SOUTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH JUST SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS OUR
IMMEDIATE AREA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE TRACK...AND INDICATES THE WARM FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS REMAINING IN OUR AREA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION. STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND HAVE REMOVED IT FROM KLBF TAF. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL NEAR
OR AT BANK FULL. THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS CURRENTLY JUST
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY AS A RISE ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COMING WEEKEND
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE EYE AS
RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 040457 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1157 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY.  A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LATEST NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KLBF EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED
BL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS/SNOW MELT.  NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE NAM AT THIS POINT...THUS NO FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.  OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.  H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO WARM SOME 2C OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S CWA
WIDE.  SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE
SNOW REMAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT COLD PRONE EARLY VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND QUICKLY RETREAT EAST THURSDAY. WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 30KT TO 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL OPERATE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH UPPER
80S FRIDAY. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY
WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO 13C-15C
AT 750MB...THE APPROXIMATE MIXING HEIGHT SHOWN BY THE GFS20 MODEL.
THE NAM MIXES TO 725MB WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING AS WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INCREASE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTN TSTMS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG 700MB
CAP...10C...WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
FCST AREA AND UNDERCUT THE THERMAL RIDGE BELOW 700MB. SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH STRONG EAST WINDS.

THE MODELS THEN RESPOND BY BLOWING UP A MCS ACROSS NERN COLO
SATURDAY AFTN. THIS WOULD BE CARRIED NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. A 850MB WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH PART WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. BY THIS TIME THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND THE 850MB FRONT
COULD BE AN EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SWRN NEB FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE BACKING SATURDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...THE GFS AND ECM MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD BE AN
EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE TSTMS.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA SUNDAY. IF THE H850MB FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS THEN ADDITIONAL MOSTLY
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A WARM SECTOR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THE GFS
INDICATES ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EITHER DEEP SOUTHERLY...GFS...OR
BACKED...ECM...WHICH SUPPORTS PULSE SEVERE HAIL.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE BEST RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. LATER FCSTS MAY
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH AND HAVE REMOVED IT FROM KLBF TAF. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING CONVECTIVE RAINS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.  THE RECENT RAINS LARGELY HAVE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
NEAR OR AT BANKFULL...ANY ADDITIONAL WATER WILL IMPACT THOSE LEVELS
FURTHER.  THE RIVER GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON
CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED AND IS
NOW DROPPING.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND IF NOT LATER.  ALL OTHER RIVERS GAUGES SHOWN READINGS BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





000
FXUS63 KLBF 040015 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY.  A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LATEST NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KLBF EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED
BL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS/SNOW MELT.  NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE NAM AT THIS POINT...THUS NO FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.  OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.  H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO WARM SOME 2C OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S CWA
WIDE.  SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE
SNOW REMAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT COLD PRONE EARLY VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND QUICKLY RETREAT EAST THURSDAY. WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 30KT TO 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL OPERATE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH UPPER
80S FRIDAY. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY
WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO 13C-15C
AT 750MB...THE APPROXIMATE MIXING HEIGHT SHOWN BY THE GFS20 MODEL.
THE NAM MIXES TO 725MB WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING AS WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INCREASE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTN TSTMS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG 700MB
CAP...10C...WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
FCST AREA AND UNDERCUT THE THERMAL RIDGE BELOW 700MB. SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH STRONG EAST WINDS.

THE MODELS THEN RESPOND BY BLOWING UP A MCS ACROSS NERN COLO
SATURDAY AFTN. THIS WOULD BE CARRIED NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. A 850MB WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH PART WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. BY THIS TIME THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND THE 850MB FRONT
COULD BE AN EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SWRN NEB FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE BACKING SATURDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...THE GFS AND ECM MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD BE AN
EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE TSTMS.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA SUNDAY. IF THE H850MB FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS THEN ADDITIONAL MOSTLY
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A WARM SECTOR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THE GFS
INDICATES ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EITHER DEEP SOUTHERLY...GFS...OR
BACKED...ECM...WHICH SUPPORTS PULSE SEVERE HAIL.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE BEST RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. LATER FCSTS MAY
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVER NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING CONVECTIVE RAINS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.  THE RECENT RAINS LARGELY HAVE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
NEAR OR AT BANKFULL...ANY ADDITIONAL WATER WILL IMPACT THOSE LEVELS
FURTHER.  THE RIVER GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON
CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED AND IS
NOW DROPPING.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND IF NOT LATER.  ALL OTHER RIVERS GAUGES SHOWN READINGS BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





000
FXUS63 KLBF 040015 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY.  A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LATEST NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KLBF EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED
BL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS/SNOW MELT.  NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE NAM AT THIS POINT...THUS NO FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.  OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.  H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO WARM SOME 2C OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S CWA
WIDE.  SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE
SNOW REMAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT COLD PRONE EARLY VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND QUICKLY RETREAT EAST THURSDAY. WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 30KT TO 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL OPERATE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH UPPER
80S FRIDAY. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY
WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO 13C-15C
AT 750MB...THE APPROXIMATE MIXING HEIGHT SHOWN BY THE GFS20 MODEL.
THE NAM MIXES TO 725MB WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING AS WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INCREASE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTN TSTMS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG 700MB
CAP...10C...WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
FCST AREA AND UNDERCUT THE THERMAL RIDGE BELOW 700MB. SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH STRONG EAST WINDS.

THE MODELS THEN RESPOND BY BLOWING UP A MCS ACROSS NERN COLO
SATURDAY AFTN. THIS WOULD BE CARRIED NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. A 850MB WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH PART WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. BY THIS TIME THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND THE 850MB FRONT
COULD BE AN EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SWRN NEB FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE BACKING SATURDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...THE GFS AND ECM MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD BE AN
EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE TSTMS.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA SUNDAY. IF THE H850MB FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS THEN ADDITIONAL MOSTLY
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A WARM SECTOR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THE GFS
INDICATES ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EITHER DEEP SOUTHERLY...GFS...OR
BACKED...ECM...WHICH SUPPORTS PULSE SEVERE HAIL.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE BEST RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. LATER FCSTS MAY
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016
LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVER NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING CONVECTIVE RAINS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.  THE RECENT RAINS LARGELY HAVE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
NEAR OR AT BANKFULL...ANY ADDITIONAL WATER WILL IMPACT THOSE LEVELS
FURTHER.  THE RIVER GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON
CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED AND IS
NOW DROPPING.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND IF NOT LATER.  ALL OTHER RIVERS GAUGES SHOWN READINGS BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





000
FXUS63 KLBF 032027
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WARMING TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY.  A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.  NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LATEST NAM SUGGESTS SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KLBF EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS AN ARTIFACT OF THE CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED
BL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS/SNOW MELT.  NOT TOTALLY BUYING
INTO THE NAM AT THIS POINT...THUS NO FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR.  OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A AMPLIFIED RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.  H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO WARM SOME 2C OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THUS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S CWA
WIDE.  SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE WEST.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S WHERE
SNOW REMAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT COLD PRONE EARLY VEGETATION MAY BE
IMPACTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND QUICKLY RETREAT EAST THURSDAY. WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 30KT TO 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL OPERATE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WITH UPPER
80S FRIDAY. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY
WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO 13C-15C
AT 750MB...THE APPROXIMATE MIXING HEIGHT SHOWN BY THE GFS20 MODEL.
THE NAM MIXES TO 725MB WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
WARMEST GUIDANCE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING AS WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES INCREASE.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTN TSTMS ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RELATIVELY STRONG 700MB
CAP...10C...WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE
FCST AREA AND UNDERCUT THE THERMAL RIDGE BELOW 700MB. SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH STRONG EAST WINDS.

THE MODELS THEN RESPOND BY BLOWING UP A MCS ACROSS NERN COLO
SATURDAY AFTN. THIS WOULD BE CARRIED NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. A 850MB WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH PART WAY THROUGH
THE FCST AREA. BY THIS TIME THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND THE 850MB FRONT
COULD BE AN EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SWRN NEB FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL BE BACKING SATURDAY NIGHT SUGGESTING A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
SEVERE WEATHER WINDOW SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH...THE GFS AND ECM MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD BE AN
EXCELLENT FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE TSTMS.

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEBRASKA SUNDAY. IF THE H850MB FRONT REMAINS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS THEN ADDITIONAL MOSTLY
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL AT THIS POINT. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A WARM SECTOR IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. THE GFS
INDICATES ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EITHER DEEP SOUTHERLY...GFS...OR
BACKED...ECM...WHICH SUPPORTS PULSE SEVERE HAIL.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE BEST RAIN CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COLD BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED. LATER FCSTS MAY
LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES THESE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING WHERE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED BY FOG WOULD BE KLBF...BUT AT THAT...ONLY THE LATEST
NAM12 MODEL HINTS AT LOWERED CEILINGS. FOR THE FORECAST WILL
INCLUDE 4SM BR AT KLBF AFTER 1000Z WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT DROP LOWER
UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING CONVECTIVE RAINS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL FOR
THE WEEKEND.  THE RECENT RAINS LARGELY HAVE AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
NEAR OR AT BANKFULL...ANY ADDITIONAL WATER WILL IMPACT THOSE LEVELS
FURTHER.  THE RIVER GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON
CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED AND IS
NOW DROPPING.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT LEWELLEN IS NOW ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND IF NOT LATER.  ALL OTHER RIVERS GAUGES SHOWN READINGS BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS





000
FXUS63 KLBF 031710
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING WHERE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED BY FOG WOULD BE KLBF...BUT AT THAT...ONLY THE LATEST
NAM12 MODEL HINTS AT LOWERED CEILINGS. FOR THE FORECAST WILL
INCLUDE 4SM BR AT KLBF AFTER 1000Z WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT DROP LOWER
UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 031121
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND RECENT SNOW MELT LOCATIONS TO SEE VSBY DOWN TO
AROUND A MILE...OR LESS. SO FAR VSBY HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND
EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE STABLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TO A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY WHICH TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 031121
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND RECENT SNOW MELT LOCATIONS TO SEE VSBY DOWN TO
AROUND A MILE...OR LESS. SO FAR VSBY HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AND
EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE STABLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES TO A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS TO GO ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
DURING THE DAY WHICH TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 030852
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THR4OUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. VFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY  THE SHOWER. WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 030852
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH RADAR ECHOES DIMINISHING ACROSS THE CWA. CLEARING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSING SATURATION AND SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT BY 12Z WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIP
REMAINING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE AND RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. SO FAR
REPORTS FROM KIEN...KANW...AND KLBF OF REDUCED VISBY AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG...WHICH SHOULD
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AND BL BEGINS TO MIX.

AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO EXPAND ONTO THE PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMUP IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER TODAY WILL STILL
BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WEAK TROUGH BROUGHT A REINFORCING COOL POCKET
OF AIR. THE WARMER AIR IS NOTICED TONIGHT AS LOWS GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 40S EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTER PORTION OF THE NATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A PLUME OF WARM AIR
ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS 18 TO 22C/ WILL BE IN CONTROL. HAVE BOOSTED
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO OR NEAR 80 DEGREES.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE AN END TO THE FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MIGRATES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND...AS THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. AS FAR
AS EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AGREE WITH WPC THAT A WIDESPREAD .50
TO 1.00 INCH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.
AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS
IMMEDIATE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THR4OUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. VFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL ACCOMPANY  THE SHOWER. WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER RECENT
RAINFALL IS STILL IMPACTING AREA RIVERS AND LOW AREAS. THE RIVER
GAUGE ON THE ELKHORN RIVER NEAR ATKINSON CONTINUES TO SHOW MINOR
FLOODING...ALTHOUGH IT HAS CRESTED. ELSEWHERE RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...BUT ALL OTHER RIVER GAUGES SHOW READINGS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THIS COMING WEEKEND WE BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH
MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS SEEING STANDING WATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 030457 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1157 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FGEN...WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BEGIN OT IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS
FAIRLY STRONG...BUT SUB CLOUD MOISTURE IS LACKING...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.  IT/LL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE
FOR QPF...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE
WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE THREAT OF QPF SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.  THERE STILL IS A HINT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER WORDING...ALBEIT ISOLATED
AT BEST. AFTER THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS
WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/
WHERE WEAK CAA...THE POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES LATE...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...BUT AT
THAT...THE FORECAST LOWS ONLY SUGGEST 34F AT THE COOLEST.  WILL
MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY...WITH WAA FROM THE WEST.  H85 T/S WILL WARM SOME 3-5C FROM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH H85
TEMPS 11C- 17C...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG RANGE...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SWRN U.S FRIDAY TO THE
PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 80 FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THR4OUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. VFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL ACCIOMPANY THE SHOWER. WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SHOULD NOT CREATE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS JUST BELOW 8
FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD AT
THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE. THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 030014
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
714 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FGEN...WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BEGIN OT IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS
FAIRLY STRONG...BUT SUB CLOUD MOISTURE IS LACKING...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.  IT/LL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE
FOR QPF...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE
WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE THREAT OF QPF SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.  THERE STILL IS A HINT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER WORDING...ALBEIT ISOLATED
AT BEST. AFTER THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS
WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/
WHERE WEAK CAA...THE POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES LATE...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...BUT AT
THAT...THE FORECAST LOWS ONLY SUGGEST 34F AT THE COOLEST.  WILL
MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY...WITH WAA FROM THE WEST.  H85 T/S WILL WARM SOME 3-5C FROM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH H85
TEMPS 11C- 17C...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG RANGE...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SWRN U.S FRIDAY TO THE
PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 80 FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AREAS OF RAINSHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAINSHOWERS BRIEFLY DROPPING
VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR CATEGORIES. AFTER THE SHOWERS CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN MVFR CATEGORIES ALONG WITH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS.
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SHOULD NOT CREATE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS JUST BELOW 8
FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD AT
THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE. THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 021938
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FGEN...WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BEGIN OT IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS
FAIRLY STRONG...BUT SUB CLOUD MOISTURE IS LACKING...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.  IT/LL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE
FOR QPF...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE
WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE THREAT OF QPF SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.  THERE STILL IS A HINT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER WORDING...ALBEIT ISOLATED
AT BEST. AFTER THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS
WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/
WHERE WEAK CAA...THE POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES LATE...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...BUT AT
THAT...THE FORECAST LOWS ONLY SUGGEST 34F AT THE COOLEST.  WILL
MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY...WITH WAA FROM THE WEST.  H85 T/S WILL WARM SOME 3-5C FROM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH H85
TEMPS 11C- 17C...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG RANGE...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SWRN U.S FRIDAY TO THE
PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 80 FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 FOR BOTH KVTN AND
KLBF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE SKC THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. COULD LOCALLY SEE MVFR VSBY FROM
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH TIMING SHOULD BE BRIEF.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SHOULD NOT CREATE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS JUST BELOW 8
FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD AT
THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE. THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 021938
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
238 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MIDLEVEL FGEN...WHICH IS
SHOWN TO BEGIN OT IMPACT OUR NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FGEN IS
FAIRLY STRONG...BUT SUB CLOUD MOISTURE IS LACKING...AT LEAST
INITIALLY.  IT/LL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO GET SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE
FOR QPF...THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE
WAVE IS PROGRESSIVE...SO THE THREAT OF QPF SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA.  THERE STILL IS A HINT
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THUNDER WORDING...ALBEIT ISOLATED
AT BEST. AFTER THE LOSS OF INSOLATION...SHOWERS OF RAIN SHOULD
PREVAIL.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PRODUCT OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SUB FREEZING LOWS
WILL BE NW OF THE SNOW PACK /NORTHERN GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTY/
WHERE WEAK CAA...THE POSSIBILITY OF CLEARING SKIES LATE...AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL PROVIDE FOR A SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT...BUT AT
THAT...THE FORECAST LOWS ONLY SUGGEST 34F AT THE COOLEST.  WILL
MONITOR.

UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE ON
TUESDAY...WITH WAA FROM THE WEST.  H85 T/S WILL WARM SOME 3-5C FROM
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  A LACK OF
APPRECIABLE OMEGA AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AMPLIFIED NRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH H85
TEMPS 11C- 17C...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY WITH SOUTH
WINDS RETURNING AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

LONG RANGE...

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED
DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SWRN U.S FRIDAY TO THE
PLAINS REGION BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR 80 FRIDAY...THEN COOLER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING
STILL IN QUESTION AND WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 FOR BOTH KVTN AND
KLBF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE SKC THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. COULD LOCALLY SEE MVFR VSBY FROM
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH TIMING SHOULD BE BRIEF.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SHOULD NOT CREATE
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM WHAT IS ALREADY THERE. THE UPPER SECTION
OF THE ELKHORN RIVER CONTINUES TO SEE MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS.
THE GAUGE AT ATKINSON HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS JUST BELOW 8
FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 7.5 FEET. OTHER AREA RIVERS ARE
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH NO GAUGES ARE FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD AT
THIS TIME. MANY AREA FIELDS AND LOW LYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PONDING...AND GROUND WATER LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE. THIS WEEK IS
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG





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