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000
FXUS63 KLBF 071130
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE AK PANHANDLE NWD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
RIDGE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA FROM THE NW
TERRITORIES...EWD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. ACROSS THE
LOWER 48...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...A FAIRLY
ZONAL PATTERN EXISTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LP OF MICHIGAN...SWD INTO
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...THEN NWD ALONG THE ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
NEBRASKA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD
DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 54
AT NORTH PLATTE AND THEDFORD TO 60 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MINOR THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST AND NWRN CWA IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOR TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL TODAY HOWEVER AS WE RECYCLE
COOLER AIR WEST OF THE EXITING HIGH. BOTH THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR NORTH PLATTE AND THIS
AGREES WELL WITH THE INHERITED FCST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST BECOMING ANCHORED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT
ACROSS NRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOW
FAR THIS CONVECTION MAKES IT EAST TONIGHT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...FEEL AT THIS POINT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...WHERE
SOME INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THEM AS FAR EAST AS VALENTINE BY 12Z
WED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST...TO MID
50S IN THE WEST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG WITH
STRONGER SRLY WINDS. WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY AS H5 WINDS TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL LEAVE IN A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NW CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RECYCLED COOL AIR FROM SFC HIGH OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS CHILLY BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 12C TO 15C RANGE. MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SOME ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE KEEPING HIGHS BELOW 70. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUDS
SO DID TREND TEMPS DOWN...BUT NOT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MODELS TRACK A STRONG WAVE FROM EASTERN
CO NORTHEAST ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME COMMON
MINOR N/S FLUCTUATIONS HAVE PERSISTED. FOLLOWING THE CONSISTENCE
WITH THE MODELS HAVE GONE LIKELY WITH POPS WITH A BLENDING
TIMING. QPF AMOUNTS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS PWATS ONLY 1.25 TO
1.50 WHICH IS LOW FOR JULY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...MORE LIKE MID TO LATE MAY.

BY FRIDAY THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST...SETTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH 90S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SW FLOW
STILL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THEN THE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW A DRY WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES. SEASONAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MODELS DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN FLOW PUSHES THEM ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE BLENDED MODEL LOW POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 7000 FT AGL AT THE
KVTN TERMINAL...TO 10000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 071130
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE AK PANHANDLE NWD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
RIDGE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA FROM THE NW
TERRITORIES...EWD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. ACROSS THE
LOWER 48...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...A FAIRLY
ZONAL PATTERN EXISTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LP OF MICHIGAN...SWD INTO
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...THEN NWD ALONG THE ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
NEBRASKA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD
DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 54
AT NORTH PLATTE AND THEDFORD TO 60 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MINOR THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST AND NWRN CWA IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOR TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL TODAY HOWEVER AS WE RECYCLE
COOLER AIR WEST OF THE EXITING HIGH. BOTH THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR NORTH PLATTE AND THIS
AGREES WELL WITH THE INHERITED FCST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST BECOMING ANCHORED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT
ACROSS NRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOW
FAR THIS CONVECTION MAKES IT EAST TONIGHT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...FEEL AT THIS POINT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...WHERE
SOME INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THEM AS FAR EAST AS VALENTINE BY 12Z
WED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST...TO MID
50S IN THE WEST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG WITH
STRONGER SRLY WINDS. WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY AS H5 WINDS TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL LEAVE IN A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NW CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RECYCLED COOL AIR FROM SFC HIGH OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS CHILLY BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 12C TO 15C RANGE. MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SOME ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE KEEPING HIGHS BELOW 70. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUDS
SO DID TREND TEMPS DOWN...BUT NOT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MODELS TRACK A STRONG WAVE FROM EASTERN
CO NORTHEAST ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME COMMON
MINOR N/S FLUCTUATIONS HAVE PERSISTED. FOLLOWING THE CONSISTENCE
WITH THE MODELS HAVE GONE LIKELY WITH POPS WITH A BLENDING
TIMING. QPF AMOUNTS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS PWATS ONLY 1.25 TO
1.50 WHICH IS LOW FOR JULY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...MORE LIKE MID TO LATE MAY.

BY FRIDAY THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST...SETTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH 90S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SW FLOW
STILL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THEN THE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW A DRY WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES. SEASONAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MODELS DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN FLOW PUSHES THEM ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE BLENDED MODEL LOW POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. BY
00Z WEDNESDAY...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 7000 FT AGL AT THE
KVTN TERMINAL...TO 10000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 070854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE AK PANHANDLE NWD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
RIDGE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA FROM THE NW
TERRITORIES...EWD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. ACROSS THE
LOWER 48...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...A FAIRLY
ZONAL PATTERN EXISTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LP OF MICHIGAN...SWD INTO
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...THEN NWD ALONG THE ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
NEBRASKA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD
DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 54
AT NORTH PLATTE AND THEDFORD TO 60 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MINOR THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST AND NWRN CWA IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOR TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL TODAY HOWEVER AS WE RECYCLE
COOLER AIR WEST OF THE EXITING HIGH. BOTH THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR NORTH PLATTE AND THIS
AGREES WELL WITH THE INHERITED FCST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST BECOMING ANCHORED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT
ACROSS NRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOW
FAR THIS CONVECTION MAKES IT EAST TONIGHT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...FEEL AT THIS POINT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...WHERE
SOME INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THEM AS FAR EAST AS VALENTINE BY 12Z
WED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST...TO MID
50S IN THE WEST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG WITH
STRONGER SRLY WINDS. WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY AS H5 WINDS TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL LEAVE IN A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NW CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RECYCLED COOL AIR FROM SFC HIGH OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS CHILLY BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 12C TO 15C RANGE. MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SOME ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE KEEPING HIGHS BELOW 70. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUDS
SO DID TREND TEMPS DOWN...BUT NOT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MODELS TRACK A STRONG WAVE FROM EASTERN
CO NORTHEAST ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME COMMON
MINOR N/S FLUCTUATIONS HAVE PERSISTED. FOLLOWING THE CONSISTENCE
WITH THE MODELS HAVE GONE LIKELY WITH POPS WITH A BLENDING
TIMING. QPF AMOUNTS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS PWATS ONLY 1.25 TO
1.50 WHICH IS LOW FOR JULY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...MORE LIKE MID TO LATE MAY.

BY FRIDAY THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST...SETTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH 90S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SW FLOW
STILL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THEN THE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW A DRY WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES. SEASONAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MODELS DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN FLOW PUSHES THEM ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE BLENDED MODEL LOW POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. SOME SMOKE WILL LINGER
FROM WILD FIRES BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL INHIBIT VISIBILITY
BELOW VFR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 070854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE AK PANHANDLE NWD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
RIDGE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA FROM THE NW
TERRITORIES...EWD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. ACROSS THE
LOWER 48...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...A FAIRLY
ZONAL PATTERN EXISTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LP OF MICHIGAN...SWD INTO
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...THEN NWD ALONG THE ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
NEBRASKA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD
DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 54
AT NORTH PLATTE AND THEDFORD TO 60 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MINOR THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST AND NWRN CWA IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOR TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL TODAY HOWEVER AS WE RECYCLE
COOLER AIR WEST OF THE EXITING HIGH. BOTH THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR NORTH PLATTE AND THIS
AGREES WELL WITH THE INHERITED FCST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST BECOMING ANCHORED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT
ACROSS NRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOW
FAR THIS CONVECTION MAKES IT EAST TONIGHT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...FEEL AT THIS POINT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...WHERE
SOME INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THEM AS FAR EAST AS VALENTINE BY 12Z
WED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST...TO MID
50S IN THE WEST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG WITH
STRONGER SRLY WINDS. WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY AS H5 WINDS TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL LEAVE IN A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NW CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RECYCLED COOL AIR FROM SFC HIGH OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS CHILLY BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 12C TO 15C RANGE. MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SOME ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE KEEPING HIGHS BELOW 70. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUDS
SO DID TREND TEMPS DOWN...BUT NOT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MODELS TRACK A STRONG WAVE FROM EASTERN
CO NORTHEAST ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME COMMON
MINOR N/S FLUCTUATIONS HAVE PERSISTED. FOLLOWING THE CONSISTENCE
WITH THE MODELS HAVE GONE LIKELY WITH POPS WITH A BLENDING
TIMING. QPF AMOUNTS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS PWATS ONLY 1.25 TO
1.50 WHICH IS LOW FOR JULY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...MORE LIKE MID TO LATE MAY.

BY FRIDAY THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST...SETTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH 90S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SW FLOW
STILL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THEN THE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW A DRY WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES. SEASONAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MODELS DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN FLOW PUSHES THEM ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE BLENDED MODEL LOW POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. SOME SMOKE WILL LINGER
FROM WILD FIRES BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL INHIBIT VISIBILITY
BELOW VFR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 070854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE AK PANHANDLE NWD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
RIDGE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA FROM THE NW
TERRITORIES...EWD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. ACROSS THE
LOWER 48...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...A FAIRLY
ZONAL PATTERN EXISTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LP OF MICHIGAN...SWD INTO
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...THEN NWD ALONG THE ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
NEBRASKA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD
DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 54
AT NORTH PLATTE AND THEDFORD TO 60 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MINOR THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST AND NWRN CWA IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOR TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL TODAY HOWEVER AS WE RECYCLE
COOLER AIR WEST OF THE EXITING HIGH. BOTH THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR NORTH PLATTE AND THIS
AGREES WELL WITH THE INHERITED FCST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST BECOMING ANCHORED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT
ACROSS NRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOW
FAR THIS CONVECTION MAKES IT EAST TONIGHT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...FEEL AT THIS POINT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...WHERE
SOME INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THEM AS FAR EAST AS VALENTINE BY 12Z
WED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST...TO MID
50S IN THE WEST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG WITH
STRONGER SRLY WINDS. WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY AS H5 WINDS TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL LEAVE IN A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NW CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RECYCLED COOL AIR FROM SFC HIGH OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS CHILLY BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 12C TO 15C RANGE. MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SOME ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE KEEPING HIGHS BELOW 70. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUDS
SO DID TREND TEMPS DOWN...BUT NOT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MODELS TRACK A STRONG WAVE FROM EASTERN
CO NORTHEAST ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME COMMON
MINOR N/S FLUCTUATIONS HAVE PERSISTED. FOLLOWING THE CONSISTENCE
WITH THE MODELS HAVE GONE LIKELY WITH POPS WITH A BLENDING
TIMING. QPF AMOUNTS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS PWATS ONLY 1.25 TO
1.50 WHICH IS LOW FOR JULY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...MORE LIKE MID TO LATE MAY.

BY FRIDAY THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST...SETTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH 90S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SW FLOW
STILL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THEN THE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW A DRY WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES. SEASONAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MODELS DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN FLOW PUSHES THEM ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE BLENDED MODEL LOW POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. SOME SMOKE WILL LINGER
FROM WILD FIRES BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL INHIBIT VISIBILITY
BELOW VFR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 070854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE AK PANHANDLE NWD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
RIDGE...LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA FROM THE NW
TERRITORIES...EWD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. ACROSS THE
LOWER 48...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS...A FAIRLY
ZONAL PATTERN EXISTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LP OF MICHIGAN...SWD INTO
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...THEN NWD ALONG THE ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SET
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDED FROM NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
NEBRASKA. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD
DRIFTED INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 54
AT NORTH PLATTE AND THEDFORD TO 60 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A MINOR THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
WEST AND NWRN CWA IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. FOR TODAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL TODAY HOWEVER AS WE RECYCLE
COOLER AIR WEST OF THE EXITING HIGH. BOTH THE MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE HAVE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR NORTH PLATTE AND THIS
AGREES WELL WITH THE INHERITED FCST. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST BECOMING ANCHORED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WILL LIFT
ACROSS NRN COLORADO AND SRN WYOMING. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING INVOF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOW
FAR THIS CONVECTION MAKES IT EAST TONIGHT IS STILL A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ORIENTED ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...FEEL AT THIS POINT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NWRN SANDHILLS...WHERE
SOME INCREASED ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...PUSHING THEM AS FAR EAST AS VALENTINE BY 12Z
WED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST...TO MID
50S IN THE WEST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG WITH
STRONGER SRLY WINDS. WITH RESPECT TO SMOKE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TDY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY AS H5 WINDS TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL LEAVE IN A
MENTION OF SMOKE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NW CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RECYCLED COOL AIR FROM SFC HIGH OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THINGS CHILLY BENEATH THE
CLOUDS AND 850 MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 12C TO 15C RANGE. MOS
GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH SOME ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE KEEPING HIGHS BELOW 70. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUDS
SO DID TREND TEMPS DOWN...BUT NOT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MODELS TRACK A STRONG WAVE FROM EASTERN
CO NORTHEAST ACROSS NW KANSAS AND SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. MODELS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME COMMON
MINOR N/S FLUCTUATIONS HAVE PERSISTED. FOLLOWING THE CONSISTENCE
WITH THE MODELS HAVE GONE LIKELY WITH POPS WITH A BLENDING
TIMING. QPF AMOUNTS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS PWATS ONLY 1.25 TO
1.50 WHICH IS LOW FOR JULY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...MORE LIKE MID TO LATE MAY.

BY FRIDAY THE SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK TO THE WEST...SETTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND WITH 90S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SW FLOW
STILL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO BRING A CHANCE FOR STORMS. THEN THE ACTIVITY
SHIFTS NORTH WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW A DRY WEEKEND.

NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE ROCKIES. SEASONAL TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MODELS DEVELOP STORMS OVER THE
ROCKIES THEN FLOW PUSHES THEM ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE/IF STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND WILL CONTINUE THE BLENDED MODEL LOW POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. SOME SMOKE WILL LINGER
FROM WILD FIRES BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL INHIBIT VISIBILITY
BELOW VFR. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 070535
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
EAST INTO HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE STATE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED AT SURFACE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO 70S...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME SUNDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO TRANSPORTED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA WITH HAZY CONDITIONS REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY STILL NEED A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH AS MOST UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW
50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S IF MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ERODES. THE HAZY CONDITIONS FROM
CANADIAN SMOKE MAY STICK AROUND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT AIR PARCEL IN TRAJECTORIES THAT WOULD PUSH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALMING WINDS TONIGHT MAY TRAP SOME OF THE
SMOKE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY IN LOCAL VALLEYS.

SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS 850MB HOVER AROUND 12C-14C.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER AS THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE IS BLOCKED BY THE COLD FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
MODELS KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR WELL...NOT AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE GEM...GFS...NAM...SREF AND
ECM. THE GFS AND SREF COVER THE FCST AREA WITH QPF WHILE THE NAM AND
ECM JUST SOUTH...THE GEM SHOWS NEARLY NONE AT ALL.

AT THE 500 AND 300 MB HEIGHT LEVELS THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT 850-500MB FOR RAINFALL. BUT
THE FORCING MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA RESULTING IN JUST
MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW 850-300MB RH INCREASING 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES...THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT MODEL SUITE. THIS PRODUCES RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED WHICH SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ONLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

HIGHS RISE JUST INTO THE 70S WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COOL AIR IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PIN WHEEL EAST INTO SRN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD EJECT EAST
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD FLUSH HOT AIR FROM
THE DESERT BUT THIS AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS KS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NCNTL KS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SWRN NEB
WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THUS...THE
REALM OF RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES IS LARGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LIFTS AND PARTIALLY SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY.
THE RESULT IS A SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY
AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 100S SUNDAY
SOUTH AND WEST. BIAS CORRECTION LOWERS THE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES AND
REMOVES THE 100S. THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SHOW H700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 10C TO 15C WHICH MEANS HIGHS COULD BE ABOUT 5F HIGHER
OR LOWER THAN MEDIAN FORECAST IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE DRY AIR SURGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE DRYLINE
POSITIONED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME DEGREE
OF THE WARMER GFS MIGHT VERIFY...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS
ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS WEEK. MOST OF MODELS HOWEVER KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR ACROSS COLORADO BENEATH THE H500MB RIDGE CENTER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
FCST AREA. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A 60KT 300MB JET LIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BULK SHEAR. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S WOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
AND THE CAP IS MODEST WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 12C.
STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING AND THE CAP STRENGTH. AFTER FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND RAIN CHANCES VANISH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. SOME SMOKE WILL LINGER FROM
WILD FIRES BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL INHIBIT VISIBILITY BELOW VFR.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10KTS
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 070535
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
EAST INTO HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE STATE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED AT SURFACE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO 70S...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME SUNDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO TRANSPORTED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA WITH HAZY CONDITIONS REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY STILL NEED A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH AS MOST UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW
50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S IF MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ERODES. THE HAZY CONDITIONS FROM
CANADIAN SMOKE MAY STICK AROUND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT AIR PARCEL IN TRAJECTORIES THAT WOULD PUSH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALMING WINDS TONIGHT MAY TRAP SOME OF THE
SMOKE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY IN LOCAL VALLEYS.

SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS 850MB HOVER AROUND 12C-14C.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER AS THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE IS BLOCKED BY THE COLD FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
MODELS KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR WELL...NOT AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE GEM...GFS...NAM...SREF AND
ECM. THE GFS AND SREF COVER THE FCST AREA WITH QPF WHILE THE NAM AND
ECM JUST SOUTH...THE GEM SHOWS NEARLY NONE AT ALL.

AT THE 500 AND 300 MB HEIGHT LEVELS THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT 850-500MB FOR RAINFALL. BUT
THE FORCING MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA RESULTING IN JUST
MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW 850-300MB RH INCREASING 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES...THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT MODEL SUITE. THIS PRODUCES RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED WHICH SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ONLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

HIGHS RISE JUST INTO THE 70S WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COOL AIR IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PIN WHEEL EAST INTO SRN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD EJECT EAST
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD FLUSH HOT AIR FROM
THE DESERT BUT THIS AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS KS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NCNTL KS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SWRN NEB
WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THUS...THE
REALM OF RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES IS LARGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LIFTS AND PARTIALLY SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY.
THE RESULT IS A SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY
AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 100S SUNDAY
SOUTH AND WEST. BIAS CORRECTION LOWERS THE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES AND
REMOVES THE 100S. THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SHOW H700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 10C TO 15C WHICH MEANS HIGHS COULD BE ABOUT 5F HIGHER
OR LOWER THAN MEDIAN FORECAST IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE DRY AIR SURGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE DRYLINE
POSITIONED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME DEGREE
OF THE WARMER GFS MIGHT VERIFY...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS
ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS WEEK. MOST OF MODELS HOWEVER KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR ACROSS COLORADO BENEATH THE H500MB RIDGE CENTER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
FCST AREA. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A 60KT 300MB JET LIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BULK SHEAR. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S WOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
AND THE CAP IS MODEST WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 12C.
STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING AND THE CAP STRENGTH. AFTER FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND RAIN CHANCES VANISH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. SOME SMOKE WILL LINGER FROM
WILD FIRES BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL INHIBIT VISIBILITY BELOW VFR.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10KTS
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 070535
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
EAST INTO HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE STATE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED AT SURFACE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO 70S...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME SUNDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO TRANSPORTED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA WITH HAZY CONDITIONS REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY STILL NEED A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH AS MOST UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW
50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S IF MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ERODES. THE HAZY CONDITIONS FROM
CANADIAN SMOKE MAY STICK AROUND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT AIR PARCEL IN TRAJECTORIES THAT WOULD PUSH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALMING WINDS TONIGHT MAY TRAP SOME OF THE
SMOKE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY IN LOCAL VALLEYS.

SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS 850MB HOVER AROUND 12C-14C.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER AS THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE IS BLOCKED BY THE COLD FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
MODELS KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR WELL...NOT AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE GEM...GFS...NAM...SREF AND
ECM. THE GFS AND SREF COVER THE FCST AREA WITH QPF WHILE THE NAM AND
ECM JUST SOUTH...THE GEM SHOWS NEARLY NONE AT ALL.

AT THE 500 AND 300 MB HEIGHT LEVELS THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT 850-500MB FOR RAINFALL. BUT
THE FORCING MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA RESULTING IN JUST
MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW 850-300MB RH INCREASING 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES...THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT MODEL SUITE. THIS PRODUCES RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED WHICH SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ONLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

HIGHS RISE JUST INTO THE 70S WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COOL AIR IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PIN WHEEL EAST INTO SRN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD EJECT EAST
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD FLUSH HOT AIR FROM
THE DESERT BUT THIS AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS KS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NCNTL KS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SWRN NEB
WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THUS...THE
REALM OF RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES IS LARGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LIFTS AND PARTIALLY SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY.
THE RESULT IS A SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY
AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 100S SUNDAY
SOUTH AND WEST. BIAS CORRECTION LOWERS THE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES AND
REMOVES THE 100S. THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SHOW H700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 10C TO 15C WHICH MEANS HIGHS COULD BE ABOUT 5F HIGHER
OR LOWER THAN MEDIAN FORECAST IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE DRY AIR SURGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE DRYLINE
POSITIONED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME DEGREE
OF THE WARMER GFS MIGHT VERIFY...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS
ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS WEEK. MOST OF MODELS HOWEVER KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR ACROSS COLORADO BENEATH THE H500MB RIDGE CENTER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
FCST AREA. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A 60KT 300MB JET LIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BULK SHEAR. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S WOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
AND THE CAP IS MODEST WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 12C.
STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING AND THE CAP STRENGTH. AFTER FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND RAIN CHANCES VANISH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT. SOME SMOKE WILL LINGER FROM
WILD FIRES BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL INHIBIT VISIBILITY BELOW VFR.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10KTS
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 062349 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
649 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
EAST INTO HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE STATE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED AT SURFACE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO 70S...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME SUNDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO TRANSPORTED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA WITH HAZY CONDITIONS REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY STILL NEED A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH AS MOST UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW
50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S IF MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ERODES. THE HAZY CONDITIONS FROM
CANADIAN SMOKE MAY STICK AROUND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT AIR PARCEL IN TRAJECTORIES THAT WOULD PUSH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALMING WINDS TONIGHT MAY TRAP SOME OF THE
SMOKE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY IN LOCAL VALLEYS.

SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS 850MB HOVER AROUND 12C-14C.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER AS THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE IS BLOCKED BY THE COLD FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
MODELS KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR WELL...NOT AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE GEM...GFS...NAM...SREF AND
ECM. THE GFS AND SREF COVER THE FCST AREA WITH QPF WHILE THE NAM AND
ECM JUST SOUTH...THE GEM SHOWS NEARLY NONE AT ALL.

AT THE 500 AND 300 MB HEIGHT LEVELS THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT 850-500MB FOR RAINFALL. BUT
THE FORCING MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA RESULTING IN JUST
MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW 850-300MB RH INCREASING 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES...THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT MODEL SUITE. THIS PRODUCES RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED WHICH SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ONLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

HIGHS RISE JUST INTO THE 70S WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COOL AIR IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PIN WHEEL EAST INTO SRN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD EJECT EAST
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD FLUSH HOT AIR FROM
THE DESERT BUT THIS AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS KS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NCNTL KS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SWRN NEB
WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THUS...THE
REALM OF RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES IS LARGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LIFTS AND PARTIALLY SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY.
THE RESULT IS A SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY
AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 100S SUNDAY
SOUTH AND WEST. BIAS CORRECTION LOWERS THE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES AND
REMOVES THE 100S. THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SHOW H700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 10C TO 15C WHICH MEANS HIGHS COULD BE ABOUT 5F HIGHER
OR LOWER THAN MEDIAN FORECAST IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE DRY AIR SURGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE DRYLINE
POSITIONED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME DEGREE
OF THE WARMER GFS MIGHT VERIFY...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS
ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS WEEK. MOST OF MODELS HOWEVER KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR ACROSS COLORADO BENEATH THE H500MB RIDGE CENTER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
FCST AREA. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A 60KT 300MB JET LIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BULK SHEAR. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S WOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
AND THE CAP IS MODEST WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 12C.
STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING AND THE CAP STRENGTH. AFTER FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND RAIN CHANCES VANISH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED THIS EVENING BUT STILL MAY
APPROACH MVFR CATEGORIES. AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME OF THIS SMOKE
MAY BE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVE NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 062349 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
649 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
EAST INTO HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE STATE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED AT SURFACE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO 70S...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME SUNDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO TRANSPORTED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA WITH HAZY CONDITIONS REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY STILL NEED A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH AS MOST UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW
50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S IF MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ERODES. THE HAZY CONDITIONS FROM
CANADIAN SMOKE MAY STICK AROUND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT AIR PARCEL IN TRAJECTORIES THAT WOULD PUSH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALMING WINDS TONIGHT MAY TRAP SOME OF THE
SMOKE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY IN LOCAL VALLEYS.

SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS 850MB HOVER AROUND 12C-14C.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER AS THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE IS BLOCKED BY THE COLD FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
MODELS KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR WELL...NOT AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE GEM...GFS...NAM...SREF AND
ECM. THE GFS AND SREF COVER THE FCST AREA WITH QPF WHILE THE NAM AND
ECM JUST SOUTH...THE GEM SHOWS NEARLY NONE AT ALL.

AT THE 500 AND 300 MB HEIGHT LEVELS THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT 850-500MB FOR RAINFALL. BUT
THE FORCING MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA RESULTING IN JUST
MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW 850-300MB RH INCREASING 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES...THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT MODEL SUITE. THIS PRODUCES RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED WHICH SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ONLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

HIGHS RISE JUST INTO THE 70S WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COOL AIR IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PIN WHEEL EAST INTO SRN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD EJECT EAST
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD FLUSH HOT AIR FROM
THE DESERT BUT THIS AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS KS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NCNTL KS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SWRN NEB
WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THUS...THE
REALM OF RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES IS LARGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LIFTS AND PARTIALLY SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY.
THE RESULT IS A SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY
AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 100S SUNDAY
SOUTH AND WEST. BIAS CORRECTION LOWERS THE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES AND
REMOVES THE 100S. THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SHOW H700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 10C TO 15C WHICH MEANS HIGHS COULD BE ABOUT 5F HIGHER
OR LOWER THAN MEDIAN FORECAST IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE DRY AIR SURGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE DRYLINE
POSITIONED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME DEGREE
OF THE WARMER GFS MIGHT VERIFY...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS
ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS WEEK. MOST OF MODELS HOWEVER KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR ACROSS COLORADO BENEATH THE H500MB RIDGE CENTER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
FCST AREA. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A 60KT 300MB JET LIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BULK SHEAR. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S WOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
AND THE CAP IS MODEST WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 12C.
STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING AND THE CAP STRENGTH. AFTER FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND RAIN CHANCES VANISH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED THIS EVENING BUT STILL MAY
APPROACH MVFR CATEGORIES. AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME OF THIS SMOKE
MAY BE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVE NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 062349 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
649 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
EAST INTO HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE STATE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED AT SURFACE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO 70S...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME SUNDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO TRANSPORTED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA WITH HAZY CONDITIONS REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY STILL NEED A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH AS MOST UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW
50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S IF MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ERODES. THE HAZY CONDITIONS FROM
CANADIAN SMOKE MAY STICK AROUND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT AIR PARCEL IN TRAJECTORIES THAT WOULD PUSH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALMING WINDS TONIGHT MAY TRAP SOME OF THE
SMOKE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY IN LOCAL VALLEYS.

SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS 850MB HOVER AROUND 12C-14C.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER AS THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE IS BLOCKED BY THE COLD FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
MODELS KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR WELL...NOT AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE GEM...GFS...NAM...SREF AND
ECM. THE GFS AND SREF COVER THE FCST AREA WITH QPF WHILE THE NAM AND
ECM JUST SOUTH...THE GEM SHOWS NEARLY NONE AT ALL.

AT THE 500 AND 300 MB HEIGHT LEVELS THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT 850-500MB FOR RAINFALL. BUT
THE FORCING MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA RESULTING IN JUST
MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW 850-300MB RH INCREASING 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES...THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT MODEL SUITE. THIS PRODUCES RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED WHICH SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ONLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

HIGHS RISE JUST INTO THE 70S WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COOL AIR IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PIN WHEEL EAST INTO SRN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD EJECT EAST
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD FLUSH HOT AIR FROM
THE DESERT BUT THIS AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS KS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NCNTL KS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SWRN NEB
WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THUS...THE
REALM OF RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES IS LARGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LIFTS AND PARTIALLY SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY.
THE RESULT IS A SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY
AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 100S SUNDAY
SOUTH AND WEST. BIAS CORRECTION LOWERS THE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES AND
REMOVES THE 100S. THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SHOW H700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 10C TO 15C WHICH MEANS HIGHS COULD BE ABOUT 5F HIGHER
OR LOWER THAN MEDIAN FORECAST IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE DRY AIR SURGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE DRYLINE
POSITIONED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME DEGREE
OF THE WARMER GFS MIGHT VERIFY...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS
ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS WEEK. MOST OF MODELS HOWEVER KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR ACROSS COLORADO BENEATH THE H500MB RIDGE CENTER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
FCST AREA. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A 60KT 300MB JET LIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BULK SHEAR. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S WOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
AND THE CAP IS MODEST WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 12C.
STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING AND THE CAP STRENGTH. AFTER FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND RAIN CHANCES VANISH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED THIS EVENING BUT STILL MAY
APPROACH MVFR CATEGORIES. AS THE WINDS DECOUPLE SOME OF THIS SMOKE
MAY BE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVE NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 062013
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
313 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
EAST INTO HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE STATE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED AT SURFACE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO 70S...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME SUNDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO TRANSPORTED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA WITH HAZY CONDITIONS REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY STILL NEED A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH AS MOST UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW
50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S IF MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ERODES. THE HAZY CONDITIONS FROM
CANADIAN SMOKE MAY STICK AROUND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT AIR PARCEL IN TRAJECTORIES THAT WOULD PUSH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALMING WINDS TONIGHT MAY TRAP SOME OF THE
SMOKE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY IN LOCAL VALLEYS.

SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS 850MB HOVER AROUND 12C-14C.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER AS THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE IS BLOCKED BY THE COLD FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
MODELS KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR WELL...NOT AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE GEM...GFS...NAM...SREF AND
ECM. THE GFS AND SREF COVER THE FCST AREA WITH QPF WHILE THE NAM AND
ECM JUST SOUTH...THE GEM SHOWS NEARLY NONE AT ALL.

AT THE 500 AND 300 MB HEIGHT LEVELS THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT 850-500MB FOR RAINFALL. BUT
THE FORCING MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA RESULTING IN JUST
MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW 850-300MB RH INCREASING 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES...THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT MODEL SUITE. THIS PRODUCES RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED WHICH SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ONLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

HIGHS RISE JUST INTO THE 70S WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COOL AIR IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PIN WHEEL EAST INTO SRN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD EJECT EAST
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD FLUSH HOT AIR FROM
THE DESERT BUT THIS AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS KS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NCNTL KS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SWRN NEB
WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THUS...THE
REALM OF RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES IS LARGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LIFTS AND PARTIALLY SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY.
THE RESULT IS A SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY
AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 100S SUNDAY
SOUTH AND WEST. BIAS CORRECTION LOWERS THE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES AND
REMOVES THE 100S. THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SHOW H700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 10C TO 15C WHICH MEANS HIGHS COULD BE ABOUT 5F HIGHER
OR LOWER THAN MEDIAN FORECAST IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE DRY AIR SURGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE DRYLINE
POSITIONED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME DEGREE
OF THE WARMER GFS MIGHT VERIFY...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS
ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS WEEK. MOST OF MODELS HOWEVER KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR ACROSS COLORADO BENEATH THE H500MB RIDGE CENTER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
FCST AREA. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A 60KT 300MB JET LIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BULK SHEAR. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S WOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
AND THE CAP IS MODEST WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 12C.
STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING AND THE CAP STRENGTH. AFTER FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND RAIN CHANCES VANISH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE STUCH AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO REDUCED VISBILITY AS NORTHERLY
WINDS TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD STAY AOA 3SM...BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER VISBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT VISBY WILL IMPROVE TO
P6SM BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT NO
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TO ADDRESS THE SITUATION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 062013
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
313 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS DOMINATED BY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER MUCH OF CANADA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING
EAST INTO HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE STATE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED AT SURFACE. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO 70S...20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
TIME SUNDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO TRANSPORTED SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES INTO THE AREA WITH HAZY CONDITIONS REPORTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST MAY STILL NEED A FEW ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE WITH AS MOST UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER IS DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW
50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS DROP INTO THE UPPER
40S IF MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ERODES. THE HAZY CONDITIONS FROM
CANADIAN SMOKE MAY STICK AROUND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT AIR PARCEL IN TRAJECTORIES THAT WOULD PUSH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SMOKE EAST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE DECOUPLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CALMING WINDS TONIGHT MAY TRAP SOME OF THE
SMOKE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...PRIMARILY IN LOCAL VALLEYS.

SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL ON TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS 850MB HOVER AROUND 12C-14C.
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MEAGER AS THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE IS BLOCKED BY THE COLD FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
MODELS KEEP OUR CWA DRY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET
OF RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR WELL...NOT AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE GEM...GFS...NAM...SREF AND
ECM. THE GFS AND SREF COVER THE FCST AREA WITH QPF WHILE THE NAM AND
ECM JUST SOUTH...THE GEM SHOWS NEARLY NONE AT ALL.

AT THE 500 AND 300 MB HEIGHT LEVELS THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND THE MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT 850-500MB FOR RAINFALL. BUT
THE FORCING MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TOP OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA RESULTING IN JUST
MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES.

GIVEN THAT ALL MODELS SHOW 850-300MB RH INCREASING 80 PERCENT OR
HIGHER AT TIMES...THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS AND
CURRENT MODEL SUITE. THIS PRODUCES RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED WHICH SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT ONLY
OCCUR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEB...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

HIGHS RISE JUST INTO THE 70S WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE COOL AIR IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS FALL INTO
THE 50S. EXPECTED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PIN WHEEL EAST INTO SRN
NEVADA THURSDAY AFTN AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES SHOULD EJECT EAST
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE LONG WAVE TROF SHOULD FLUSH HOT AIR FROM
THE DESERT BUT THIS AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS KS SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NCNTL KS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SERN COLORADO. THE NAM SHOWS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SWRN NEB
WEDS NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THUS...THE
REALM OF RAINFALL POSSIBILITIES IS LARGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. LIFTS AND PARTIALLY SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY.
THE RESULT IS A SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY
AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY. THE MEX GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 100S SUNDAY
SOUTH AND WEST. BIAS CORRECTION LOWERS THE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES AND
REMOVES THE 100S. THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SHOW H700MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 10C TO 15C WHICH MEANS HIGHS COULD BE ABOUT 5F HIGHER
OR LOWER THAN MEDIAN FORECAST IN PLACE.

GIVEN THE DRY AIR SURGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE DRYLINE
POSITIONED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SOME DEGREE
OF THE WARMER GFS MIGHT VERIFY...ESPECIALLY IF LITTLE RAIN FALLS
ACROSS SWRN NEB THIS WEEK. MOST OF MODELS HOWEVER KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR ACROSS COLORADO BENEATH THE H500MB RIDGE CENTER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
FCST AREA. THE GFS AND ECM SHOW A 60KT 300MB JET LIFTING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BULK SHEAR. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S WOULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
AND THE CAP IS MODEST WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 12C.
STORM COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING AND THE CAP STRENGTH. AFTER FRIDAY...DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND RAIN CHANCES VANISH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE STUCH AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO REDUCED VISBILITY AS NORTHERLY
WINDS TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD STAY AOA 3SM...BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER VISBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT VISBY WILL IMPROVE TO
P6SM BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT NO
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TO ADDRESS THE SITUATION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 061736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE STUCH AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO REDUCED VISBILITY AS NORTHERLY
WINDS TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD STAY AOA 3SM...BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER VISBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT VISBY WILL IMPROVE TO
P6SM BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT NO
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TO ADDRESS THE SITUATION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 061736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE STUCH AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO REDUCED VISBILITY AS NORTHERLY
WINDS TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD STAY AOA 3SM...BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER VISBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT VISBY WILL IMPROVE TO
P6SM BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT NO
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TO ADDRESS THE SITUATION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KLBF 061736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE STUCH AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO REDUCED VISBILITY AS NORTHERLY
WINDS TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD STAY AOA 3SM...BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER VISBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT VISBY WILL IMPROVE TO
P6SM BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT NO
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TO ADDRESS THE SITUATION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 061736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE STUCH AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO REDUCED VISBILITY AS NORTHERLY
WINDS TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD STAY AOA 3SM...BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER VISBYS
ARE POSSIBLE. UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST THAT VISBY WILL IMPROVE TO
P6SM BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THAT NO
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TO ADDRESS THE SITUATION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KLBF 061206
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
706 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TODAY FROM MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED THROUGH NOONTIME AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST...THEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON DRIER WEATHER AND FEWER CLOUDS
BEYOND 07/00Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 061206
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
706 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TODAY FROM MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES BY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED THROUGH NOONTIME AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST...THEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON DRIER WEATHER AND FEWER CLOUDS
BEYOND 07/00Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 060858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NIGHT DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 060858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NIGHT DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 060858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
AS UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE EAST BY NOONTIME CDT. AT 08Z THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEB WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MONTANA WAS RIDGING SOUTH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BY NOON THE H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH INCREASED RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
60S TODAY AND RISE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND RIDGES SOUTHWEST TO OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL
BACK WEST TO ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOR QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MID WEEK FORECAST DOMINATED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND
A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 70S...WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. RAIN CHANCES NOT ALL THAT
GREAT HOWEVER BY TUESDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE.
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...THEN ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH E/NE. NOT GREAT DYNAMICS OVER THE CWA AND STORMS WILL
BE ON THE DEMISE AS THEY MOVE THIS WAY...THUS LOW POPS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL CAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STILL SEEING AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES LIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
RISE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE SPEED OF THE
REBUILDING RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGHS
LIKELY WARM INTO THE 80S WITH MANY SEEING 90S OVER THE WEEKEND.
IF RIDGE IS STRONG ENOUGH MID AND UPPER 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NIGHT DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 060537 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP WATCH AND PUSH OUT THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NIGHT
DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER











000
FXUS63 KLBF 060537 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP WATCH AND PUSH OUT THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NIGHT
DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 060506 AAD
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP WATCH AND PUSH OUT THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTOPRMS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NIGHT
DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 060506 AAD
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP WATCH AND PUSH OUT THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTOPRMS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NIGHT
DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 060506 AAD
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP WATCH AND PUSH OUT THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTOPRMS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NIGHT
DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 060506 AAD
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP WATCH AND PUSH OUT THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THUNDERSTOPRMS AND RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NIGHT
DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 060012 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
712 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS WITH FROPA AT KLBF AND KVTN. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
RAINSHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 060012 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
712 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS WITH FROPA AT KLBF AND KVTN. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
RAINSHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 052212 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
512 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON LOCAL AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DECREASES TO THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. EXPECTING MOST TSRA ACTIVITY TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER OVC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 052212 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
512 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. UPDATED
WINDS...SKY...AND PRECIP QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON LOCAL AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DECREASES TO THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. EXPECTING MOST TSRA ACTIVITY TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER OVC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KLBF 052000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON LOCAL AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DECREASES TO THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. EXPECTING MOST TSRA ACTIVITY TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER OVC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 052000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES IMPACTING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INCLUDE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE TOP OF
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EJECTING INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THE
CANADIAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF MID AFTERNOON. SO FAR MOST
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND POST-FRONTAL AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
CAPPED TO CONVECTION DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF A WARM EML FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS
BROUGHT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMEST READINGS ARE IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE DEEPER MIXING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED WITH SOME SPOTS APPROACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS. POINTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST SIT IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S BUT HAVE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL WILL LIMIT MOST
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ADVERTISING THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2.
FURTHER SOUTH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADING THE TOP
OF A THETA-E RICH BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO HIGH CAPE
VALUES. BEST CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM BACK
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERE THREAT SHIFTS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS THE NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN
THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SITS IN THE DIVERGENT
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE CANADIAN LOW. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAST
24 TO 36 HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME IS EVIDENT BY A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND ANOMALOUS HIGH
DEWPOINTS/PWATS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NEAR THE SD/NEBRASKA BORDER.

SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW KICKS EAST...WHICH WILL BRING
A GRADUAL END TO PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SPILLS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70S EXPECTED. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH COOL
AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING
AND BEGIN RETURNING MOISTURE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS. THE WRN U.S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE VANISHES TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL MIGRATE WEST. THIS ALLOWS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST TO FEED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MOVING THRU ERN WY TUESDAY.
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKE LIFT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OFF OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SUSTAINING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND ALLOWING IT TO ADVANCE EAST A BIT BUT STILL FAVORING
NRN AND WRN NEB.

HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MIGRATING
WEST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AND UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ASHORE AND SENDS HOT DESERT AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE GEF...GFS AND GEM MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS HAS NO REAL BEARING ON
THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO KEEPS HEIGHTS LOW. THE ECM IS VERY FAST
BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY SUNDAY.

A DRY LINE SHOULD FORM AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS UP AND DOWN THE CNTL
AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE DESERT AIR APPEARS TO PLACE THE DRY LINE
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE GEF MODEL WOULD APPEAR TO KEEP THE DRY LINE
WEST OF 83. DISTURBANCES SHOULD COME OFF THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME CHANCE OF RAIN. THEREAFTER...RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH AS TEMPERATURES AT H700MB RISE INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON LOCAL AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DECREASES TO THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. EXPECTING MOST TSRA ACTIVITY TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER OVC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 051735
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON LOCAL AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DECREASES TO THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. EXPECTING MOST TSRA ACTIVITY TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER OVC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 051735
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE PASSAGE
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON LOCAL AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DECREASES TO THE
SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTH AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. EXPECTING MOST TSRA ACTIVITY TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER OVC MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KLBF 051126
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AT TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH 05/05Z
TONIGHT. BEYOND MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS WILL BE LOWER WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AOB 5K FEET BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 051126
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AT TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH 05/05Z
TONIGHT. BEYOND MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS WILL BE LOWER WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AOB 5K FEET BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 051126
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AT TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH 05/05Z
TONIGHT. BEYOND MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS WILL BE LOWER WITH CEILINGS LOWERING AOB 5K FEET BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 050850
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE WEST OF
VALENTINE...TERMINAL KVTN...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL JET AT
800MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 30 KTS....AND SPREAD EAST FROM
THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK






000
FXUS63 KLBF 050850
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE WEST OF
VALENTINE...TERMINAL KVTN...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL JET AT
800MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 30 KTS....AND SPREAD EAST FROM
THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 050850
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE WEST OF
VALENTINE...TERMINAL KVTN...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL JET AT
800MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 30 KTS....AND SPREAD EAST FROM
THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK






000
FXUS63 KLBF 050850
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THUNDERSTORMS AND COVERAGE AS FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. EARLY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CONTINUED WITH
CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CHERRY COUNTY ATTM. THE THREE
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW A MAXIMUM OF 3.1 INCHES WITH SOME HAIL
CONTAMINATION LIKELY OVER THE SANDHILLS WHERE THE RAIN IS A GOOD
THING.

THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...OR AFTER 4 PM
CDT...THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE AND THE
H85 JETSTREAK STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTH
EAST.

THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 92. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL THEN EXIT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND COVERAGE THAT WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT GENERALLY EXTENDS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92...FROM ARTHUR EAST TO SARGENT AND A NARROW AREA OF ENHANCED
RISK NORTH OF A LINE FROM SPARKS TO MIDWAY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
MAIN FORCING ARRIVES AROUND 7 PM THAT WILL ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE 90S NORTH TO
AROUND 100 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THAT WILL TAPER OFF AND END FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO
THE 70S. THE NAM/NMM/ARW PRODUCING SOME QPF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA
WITHIN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER THE EC/GFS/GEM SUPPORT THE
SUBSIDENCE TO WIN OUT AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GUT FEELING IS THE
CAA/SUBSIDENCE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO OVER COME...YET CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT WITH THE WAVE. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS LOW HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONLY SOME
PASSING CLOUDS LINGERING MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
USHERING IN DRIER AIR. THIS SETS UP FOR A CHILLY SUMMER
NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT. DEW PTS FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAY
EVEN SEE AN UPPER 40S IN THE NW ZONES. THIS DRY AIR WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES DUE TO THE HIGH
PRESSURE...THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LIKELY. RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S SO NO RECORDS
EXPECTED BUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM THEM.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE UPPER/MID MISS RVR
VALLEY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RECYCLING SOME OF THE
COOL AIR INITIALLY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULT IN WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL
DRIFT EAST WITH THE STILL GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. LOW POPS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES AS THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK A LOW DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL AND
WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW THUS SOME
VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WILL SEE
AT LEAST A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

BY THE WEEKEND MODELS IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF QUICKLY LIFTS AND WEAKENS THE LOW TOWARDS THE PACIFIC
NW WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE THE
00Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS FAVORS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
RESULTING WEATHER FOR THE HIGH PLAINS IS NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT
TOO. THE EC FAVORS A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT SIMPLE AND RUN A MIDDLE OF THE GROUND
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE WEST OF
VALENTINE...TERMINAL KVTN...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL JET AT
800MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 30 KTS....AND SPREAD EAST FROM
THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...KECK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 050525
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST UP INTO ALASKA AND A
STATIONARY LOW WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. JUST DOWNSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND FLATTENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
HAS SLOWLY BROKEN DOWN AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE PROGRESSING NORTHWEST CANADIAN LOW. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 5F TO 10F HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
FRIDAY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. AS OF 20Z A CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THETA-E POOLS IN A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...AN AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HI-RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY IN REGARDS TO THEIR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SPATIAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION
STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CLOSE
TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A QUICKLY ERODING CAP PER LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THAT STORM
BASES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 750MB DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FEEDING INTO THE WAA STREAM PROVIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST
AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT
100F AS VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FAVORING
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC WARM SECTOR HAS OPENED UP SENDING THE INVERTED
TROF INTO SD WHICH ANGLES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST NEB. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NEB
BUT AREAS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 MAY JUST SEE SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OR RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET JUST
DOESNT SEEM TO FAVOR DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SWRN NEB AND SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW A DONUT HOLE IN THE QPF TOTALS THROUGH 84 HOURS
FEATURING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SD AND KS.

SPC IS EXAMINING THE LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NCNTL NEB
AS A FORCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS JET STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO
VEER OFF EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT 03Z BUT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH
INTO SCNTL NEB BY 06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING OFF TO THE EAST BUT THE NAM IS OPENING UP
A DRY WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES.

THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB. THE NAM WAS THE HEAVY HITTER IN THIS REGARD.

A FRESH BATCH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO MEXICO AND THEN VANISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN U.S.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSIT THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE SUPPORT ALOFT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS A
BIT LIMITED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. POPS ARE 20
TO 40 PERCENT AS THE GFS...GEF AND ECM SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE QPF
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE HIGHS AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ON THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY...A HEAT WAVE COULD
BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNALLY CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. H700 MB TEMPERATURES
PEAK TOMORROW AT AROUND 15C...THEN FALL TO 5C TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
RISE BACK TO 15C BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE H500MB FIELDS...850 MB WINDS
AND 500MB AGL DEW POINTS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE WEST OF
VALENTINE...TERMINAL KVTN...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL JET AT
800MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 30 KTS....AND SPREAD EAST FROM
THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...KECK









000
FXUS63 KLBF 050525
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST UP INTO ALASKA AND A
STATIONARY LOW WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. JUST DOWNSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND FLATTENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
HAS SLOWLY BROKEN DOWN AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE PROGRESSING NORTHWEST CANADIAN LOW. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 5F TO 10F HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
FRIDAY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. AS OF 20Z A CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THETA-E POOLS IN A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...AN AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HI-RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY IN REGARDS TO THEIR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SPATIAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION
STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CLOSE
TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A QUICKLY ERODING CAP PER LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THAT STORM
BASES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 750MB DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FEEDING INTO THE WAA STREAM PROVIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST
AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT
100F AS VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FAVORING
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC WARM SECTOR HAS OPENED UP SENDING THE INVERTED
TROF INTO SD WHICH ANGLES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST NEB. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NEB
BUT AREAS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 MAY JUST SEE SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OR RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET JUST
DOESNT SEEM TO FAVOR DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SWRN NEB AND SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW A DONUT HOLE IN THE QPF TOTALS THROUGH 84 HOURS
FEATURING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SD AND KS.

SPC IS EXAMINING THE LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NCNTL NEB
AS A FORCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS JET STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO
VEER OFF EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT 03Z BUT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH
INTO SCNTL NEB BY 06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING OFF TO THE EAST BUT THE NAM IS OPENING UP
A DRY WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES.

THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB. THE NAM WAS THE HEAVY HITTER IN THIS REGARD.

A FRESH BATCH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO MEXICO AND THEN VANISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN U.S.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSIT THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE SUPPORT ALOFT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS A
BIT LIMITED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. POPS ARE 20
TO 40 PERCENT AS THE GFS...GEF AND ECM SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE QPF
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE HIGHS AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ON THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY...A HEAT WAVE COULD
BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNALLY CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. H700 MB TEMPERATURES
PEAK TOMORROW AT AROUND 15C...THEN FALL TO 5C TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
RISE BACK TO 15C BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE H500MB FIELDS...850 MB WINDS
AND 500MB AGL DEW POINTS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO THE WEST OF
VALENTINE...TERMINAL KVTN...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL JET AT
800MB WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 30 KTS....AND SPREAD EAST FROM
THE PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...KECK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 050003 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
703 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST UP INTO ALASKA AND A
STATIONARY LOW WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. JUST DOWNSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND FLATTENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
HAS SLOWLY BROKEN DOWN AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE PROGRESSING NORTHWEST CANADIAN LOW. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 5F TO 10F HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
FRIDAY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. AS OF 20Z A CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THETA-E POOLS IN A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...AN AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HI-RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY IN REGARDS TO THEIR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SPATIAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION
STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CLOSE
TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A QUICKLY ERODING CAP PER LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THAT STORM
BASES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 750MB DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FEEDING INTO THE WAA STREAM PROVIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST
AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT
100F AS VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FAVORING
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC WARM SECTOR HAS OPENED UP SENDING THE INVERTED
TROF INTO SD WHICH ANGLES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST NEB. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NEB
BUT AREAS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 MAY JUST SEE SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OR RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET JUST
DOESNT SEEM TO FAVOR DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SWRN NEB AND SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW A DONUT HOLE IN THE QPF TOTALS THROUGH 84 HOURS
FEATURING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SD AND KS.

SPC IS EXAMINING THE LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NCNTL NEB
AS A FORCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS JET STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO
VEER OFF EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT 03Z BUT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH
INTO SCNTL NEB BY 06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING OFF TO THE EAST BUT THE NAM IS OPENING UP
A DRY WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES.

THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB. THE NAM WAS THE HEAVY HITTER IN THIS REGARD.

A FRESH BATCH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO MEXICO AND THEN VANISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN U.S.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSIT THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE SUPPORT ALOFT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS A
BIT LIMITED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. POPS ARE 20
TO 40 PERCENT AS THE GFS...GEF AND ECM SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE QPF
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE HIGHS AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ON THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY...A HEAT WAVE COULD
BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNALLY CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. H700 MB TEMPERATURES
PEAK TOMORROW AT AROUND 15C...THEN FALL TO 5C TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
RISE BACK TO 15C BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE H500MB FIELDS...850 MB WINDS
AND 500MB AGL DEW POINTS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 30KT-40KT LOW LEVEL
JET TO PICK UP OVER NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS JET MAY HELP TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SANDHILLS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT KVTN AND KLBF. LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
SURFACE WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 050003 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
703 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST UP INTO ALASKA AND A
STATIONARY LOW WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. JUST DOWNSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND FLATTENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
HAS SLOWLY BROKEN DOWN AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE PROGRESSING NORTHWEST CANADIAN LOW. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 5F TO 10F HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
FRIDAY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. AS OF 20Z A CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THETA-E POOLS IN A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...AN AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HI-RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY IN REGARDS TO THEIR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SPATIAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION
STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CLOSE
TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A QUICKLY ERODING CAP PER LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THAT STORM
BASES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 750MB DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FEEDING INTO THE WAA STREAM PROVIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST
AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT
100F AS VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FAVORING
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC WARM SECTOR HAS OPENED UP SENDING THE INVERTED
TROF INTO SD WHICH ANGLES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST NEB. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NEB
BUT AREAS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 MAY JUST SEE SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OR RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET JUST
DOESNT SEEM TO FAVOR DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SWRN NEB AND SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW A DONUT HOLE IN THE QPF TOTALS THROUGH 84 HOURS
FEATURING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SD AND KS.

SPC IS EXAMINING THE LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NCNTL NEB
AS A FORCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS JET STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO
VEER OFF EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT 03Z BUT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH
INTO SCNTL NEB BY 06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING OFF TO THE EAST BUT THE NAM IS OPENING UP
A DRY WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES.

THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB. THE NAM WAS THE HEAVY HITTER IN THIS REGARD.

A FRESH BATCH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO MEXICO AND THEN VANISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN U.S.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSIT THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE SUPPORT ALOFT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS A
BIT LIMITED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. POPS ARE 20
TO 40 PERCENT AS THE GFS...GEF AND ECM SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE QPF
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE HIGHS AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ON THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY...A HEAT WAVE COULD
BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNALLY CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. H700 MB TEMPERATURES
PEAK TOMORROW AT AROUND 15C...THEN FALL TO 5C TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
RISE BACK TO 15C BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE H500MB FIELDS...850 MB WINDS
AND 500MB AGL DEW POINTS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 30KT-40KT LOW LEVEL
JET TO PICK UP OVER NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS JET MAY HELP TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SANDHILLS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT KVTN AND KLBF. LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
SURFACE WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 050003 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
703 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST UP INTO ALASKA AND A
STATIONARY LOW WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. JUST DOWNSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND FLATTENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
HAS SLOWLY BROKEN DOWN AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE PROGRESSING NORTHWEST CANADIAN LOW. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 5F TO 10F HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
FRIDAY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. AS OF 20Z A CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THETA-E POOLS IN A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...AN AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HI-RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY IN REGARDS TO THEIR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SPATIAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION
STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CLOSE
TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A QUICKLY ERODING CAP PER LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THAT STORM
BASES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 750MB DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FEEDING INTO THE WAA STREAM PROVIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST
AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT
100F AS VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FAVORING
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC WARM SECTOR HAS OPENED UP SENDING THE INVERTED
TROF INTO SD WHICH ANGLES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST NEB. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NEB
BUT AREAS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 MAY JUST SEE SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OR RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET JUST
DOESNT SEEM TO FAVOR DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SWRN NEB AND SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW A DONUT HOLE IN THE QPF TOTALS THROUGH 84 HOURS
FEATURING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SD AND KS.

SPC IS EXAMINING THE LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NCNTL NEB
AS A FORCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS JET STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO
VEER OFF EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT 03Z BUT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH
INTO SCNTL NEB BY 06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING OFF TO THE EAST BUT THE NAM IS OPENING UP
A DRY WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES.

THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB. THE NAM WAS THE HEAVY HITTER IN THIS REGARD.

A FRESH BATCH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO MEXICO AND THEN VANISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN U.S.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSIT THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE SUPPORT ALOFT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS A
BIT LIMITED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. POPS ARE 20
TO 40 PERCENT AS THE GFS...GEF AND ECM SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE QPF
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE HIGHS AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ON THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY...A HEAT WAVE COULD
BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNALLY CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. H700 MB TEMPERATURES
PEAK TOMORROW AT AROUND 15C...THEN FALL TO 5C TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
RISE BACK TO 15C BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE H500MB FIELDS...850 MB WINDS
AND 500MB AGL DEW POINTS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 30KT-40KT LOW LEVEL
JET TO PICK UP OVER NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS JET MAY HELP TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SANDHILLS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT KVTN AND KLBF. LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
SURFACE WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 050003 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
703 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST UP INTO ALASKA AND A
STATIONARY LOW WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. JUST DOWNSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND FLATTENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
HAS SLOWLY BROKEN DOWN AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE PROGRESSING NORTHWEST CANADIAN LOW. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 5F TO 10F HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
FRIDAY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. AS OF 20Z A CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THETA-E POOLS IN A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...AN AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HI-RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY IN REGARDS TO THEIR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SPATIAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION
STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CLOSE
TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A QUICKLY ERODING CAP PER LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THAT STORM
BASES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 750MB DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FEEDING INTO THE WAA STREAM PROVIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST
AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT
100F AS VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FAVORING
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC WARM SECTOR HAS OPENED UP SENDING THE INVERTED
TROF INTO SD WHICH ANGLES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST NEB. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NEB
BUT AREAS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 MAY JUST SEE SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OR RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET JUST
DOESNT SEEM TO FAVOR DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SWRN NEB AND SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW A DONUT HOLE IN THE QPF TOTALS THROUGH 84 HOURS
FEATURING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SD AND KS.

SPC IS EXAMINING THE LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NCNTL NEB
AS A FORCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS JET STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO
VEER OFF EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT 03Z BUT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH
INTO SCNTL NEB BY 06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING OFF TO THE EAST BUT THE NAM IS OPENING UP
A DRY WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES.

THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB. THE NAM WAS THE HEAVY HITTER IN THIS REGARD.

A FRESH BATCH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO MEXICO AND THEN VANISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN U.S.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSIT THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE SUPPORT ALOFT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS A
BIT LIMITED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. POPS ARE 20
TO 40 PERCENT AS THE GFS...GEF AND ECM SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE QPF
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE HIGHS AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ON THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY...A HEAT WAVE COULD
BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNALLY CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. H700 MB TEMPERATURES
PEAK TOMORROW AT AROUND 15C...THEN FALL TO 5C TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
RISE BACK TO 15C BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE H500MB FIELDS...850 MB WINDS
AND 500MB AGL DEW POINTS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE DECREASING IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 30KT-40KT LOW LEVEL
JET TO PICK UP OVER NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS JET MAY HELP TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE SANDHILLS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BUT WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE HAVE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT KVTN AND KLBF. LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
SURFACE WINDS UP THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 042059
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST UP INTO ALASKA AND A
STATIONARY LOW WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. JUST DOWNSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND FLATTENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
HAS SLOWLY BROKEN DOWN AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE PROGRESSING NORTHWEST CANADIAN LOW. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 5F TO 10F HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
FRIDAY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. AS OF 20Z A CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THETA-E POOLS IN A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...AN AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HI-RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY IN REGARDS TO THEIR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SPATIAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION
STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CLOSE
TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A QUICKLY ERODING CAP PER LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THAT STORM
BASES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 750MB DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FEEDING INTO THE WAA STREAM PROVIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST
AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT
100F AS VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FAVORING
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC WARM SECTOR HAS OPENED UP SENDING THE INVERTED
TROF INTO SD WHICH ANGLES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST NEB. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NEB
BUT AREAS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 MAY JUST SEE SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OR RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET JUST
DOESNT SEEM TO FAVOR DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SWRN NEB AND SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW A DONUT HOLE IN THE QPF TOTALS THROUGH 84 HOURS
FEATURING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SD AND KS.

SPC IS EXAMINING THE LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NCNTL NEB
AS A FORCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS JET STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO
VEER OFF EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT 03Z BUT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH
INTO SCNTL NEB BY 06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING OFF TO THE EAST BUT THE NAM IS OPENING UP
A DRY WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES.

THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB. THE NAM WAS THE HEAVY HITTER IN THIS REGARD.

A FRESH BATCH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO MEXICO AND THEN VANISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN U.S.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSIT THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE SUPPORT ALOFT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS A
BIT LIMITED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. POPS ARE 20
TO 40 PERCENT AS THE GFS...GEF AND ECM SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE QPF
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE HIGHS AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ON THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY...A HEAT WAVE COULD
BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNALLY CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. H700 MB TEMPERATURES
PEAK TOMORROW AT AROUND 15C...THEN FALL TO 5C TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
RISE BACK TO 15C BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE H500MB FIELDS...850 MB WINDS
AND 500MB AGL DEW POINTS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN TO
HIGHLIGHT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE TIMING OF
TSRA NEAR THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFRR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 042059
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST UP INTO ALASKA AND A
STATIONARY LOW WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. JUST DOWNSTREAM
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND FLATTENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA
HAS SLOWLY BROKEN DOWN AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS HAVE
MOVED THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE PROGRESSING NORTHWEST CANADIAN LOW. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING 5F TO 10F HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
FRIDAY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. AS OF 20Z A CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THETA-E POOLS IN A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH...AN AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. HI-RES MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
DAY IN REGARDS TO THEIR CONVECTIVE TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER...SPATIAL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION
STILL REMAIN IN QUESTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATING CLOSE
TO 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A QUICKLY ERODING CAP PER LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS TRACK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS THREAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THAT STORM
BASES WILL LIKELY BE AOA 750MB DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH STORMS
BECOMING ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT...ESSENTIALLY FEEDING INTO THE WAA STREAM PROVIDED BY A
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER WESTERN KANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA DROPS SOUTHEAST
AND DRIVES A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD LATER SUNDAY AND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
HOT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT
100F AS VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AIR IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FAVORING
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SFC WARM SECTOR HAS OPENED UP SENDING THE INVERTED
TROF INTO SD WHICH ANGLES SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST NEB. THERE IS
STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN NEB
BUT AREAS SOUTH OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 MAY JUST SEE SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OR RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET JUST
DOESNT SEEM TO FAVOR DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS SWRN NEB AND SEVERAL
MODELS SHOW A DONUT HOLE IN THE QPF TOTALS THROUGH 84 HOURS
FEATURING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SD AND KS.

SPC IS EXAMINING THE LOW LEVEL JET SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NCNTL NEB
AS A FORCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS JET STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO
VEER OFF EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT 03Z BUT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTH
INTO SCNTL NEB BY 06Z. IT IS POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERING OFF TO THE EAST BUT THE NAM IS OPENING UP
A DRY WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES.

THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM DOES PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB. THE NAM WAS THE HEAVY HITTER IN THIS REGARD.

A FRESH BATCH OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FCST AREA
MONDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO MEXICO AND THEN VANISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL MIGRATE WEST INTO THE
MIDSOUTH BY NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN U.S.

A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSIT THE CNTL AND SRN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE SUPPORT ALOFT. MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS A
BIT LIMITED WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. POPS ARE 20
TO 40 PERCENT AS THE GFS...GEF AND ECM SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE QPF
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE HIGHS AROUND 80 WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
FORMS ON THE CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. BY SATURDAY...A HEAT WAVE COULD
BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS FOR NOCTURNALLY CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. H700 MB TEMPERATURES
PEAK TOMORROW AT AROUND 15C...THEN FALL TO 5C TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
RISE BACK TO 15C BY NEXT SATURDAY. THE H500MB FIELDS...850 MB WINDS
AND 500MB AGL DEW POINTS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE KEPT MENTION OF VCTS AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN TO
HIGHLIGHT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE TIMING OF
TSRA NEAR THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFRR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MARTIN







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