000
FXUS63 KLBF 192327
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. H5 RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. H5 WAVE UNDERNEATH
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA TONIGHT TO SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESIDES. H85 WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MONDAY...WITH SPEEDS AT THE SFC NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOW EXIT OF UPPER LOW FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RAINSHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME WHAT
COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER. HYDROLOGY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AND WILL HAVE TO WATCHED. LOWS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTHWEST. SHARP RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND
80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR VTN AROUND 06Z AND ONL-BBW-LBF BY 11Z.
AFTER 15Z...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIP INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NEAR VTN...ANW AND ONL AS THE STORM SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ISSUED SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KEITH AND SOUTHERN GARDEN
COUNTIES AS UPPER LOW KEEPS A NARROW BAND OF RAIN OVER THE
COUNTIES WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING SLOWLY EAST. SECONDARY ROADS ARE
MUDDY AND SOME HAVE WATER CROSSING THE ROAD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...POWER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 192035
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. H5 RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. H5 WAVE UNDERNEATH
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM NEBRASKA TONIGHT TO SOUTH
DAKOTA MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA MONDAY. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT RESIDES. H85 WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE CONSIDERABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MONDAY...WITH SPEEDS AT THE SFC NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOW EXIT OF UPPER LOW FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RAINSHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME WHAT
COOLER WITH CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER. HYDROLOGY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AND WILL HAVE TO WATCHED. LOWS IN THE 40S
AND HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTHWEST. SHARP RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND
80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF
MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AREAS RECEIVING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE SFC
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ISSUED SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR KEITH AND SOUTHERN GARDEN
COUNTIES AS UPPER LOW KEEPS A NARROW BAND OF RAIN OVER THE
COUNTIES WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST
NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING SLOWLY EAST. SECONDARY ROADS ARE
MUDDY AND SOME HAVE WATER CROSSING THE ROAD.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
HYDROLOGY...POWER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 191801
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
101 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A RESISTANT
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO FOCUS OVER KEITH AND
ARTHUR COUNTIES...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. RADAR
ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR...WITH
OBSERVATIONS VERIFYING THIS. HAVE HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS OF
WATER BEGINNING TO POND...AND WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN COLO WILL SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. SIMILARLY THE COLD POOL FCST
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FCST TODAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW STORMS
WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO MID 70S EAST. TEMPS IN
THE EAST REALLY DEPEND ON THE ABILITY OF A WARM SECTOR TO OPEN UP.
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD WARM UP
A BIT MORE IN THE EAST AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. OVERALL.. THE RUC LOOKED LIKE THE BEST FIT FOR THE JOB AS
IT SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THE H700 LOW IN ALL MODELS SHOULD DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE H500 MB COLD POOL LAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS NEB. THIS WILL LIFT SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS NORTH THROUGH ERN
NEB. THIS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT MUCH
MORE AS THE BETTER FOCUS IS ACROSS THE NORTH...PRESUMABLY. THERE ARE
QUITE A RANGE OF MODEL RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THIS EVENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS LESSER QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THAT THE BEST
FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ON MONDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
STACKED AND CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...AS THE DRIER AIR PUSHES EAST...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER THE MAY SUN. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TOMORROW...REMAINING
IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SOME
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH DAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF
MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AREAS RECEIVING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE SFC
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
000
FXUS63 KLBF 191753
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1253 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN COLO WILL SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. SIMILARLY THE COLD POOL FCST
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FCST TODAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW STORMS
WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO MID 70S EAST. TEMPS IN
THE EAST REALLY DEPEND ON THE ABILITY OF A WARM SECTOR TO OPEN UP.
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD WARM UP
A BIT MORE IN THE EAST AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. OVERALL.. THE RUC LOOKED LIKE THE BEST FIT FOR THE JOB AS
IT SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THE H700 LOW IN ALL MODELS SHOULD DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE H500 MB COLD POOL LAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS NEB. THIS WILL LIFT SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS NORTH THROUGH ERN
NEB. THIS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT MUCH
MORE AS THE BETTER FOCUS IS ACROSS THE NORTH...PRESUMABLY. THERE ARE
QUITE A RANGE OF MODEL RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THIS EVENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS LESSER QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THAT THE BEST
FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ON MONDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
STACKED AND CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...AS THE DRIER AIR PUSHES EAST...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER THE MAY SUN. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TOMORROW...REMAINING
IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SOME
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH DAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS OF
MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN AREAS RECEIVING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE SFC
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
000
FXUS63 KLBF 191123 AAA
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN COLO WILL SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. SIMILARLY THE COLD POOL FCST
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FCST TODAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW STORMS
WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO MID 70S EAST. TEMPS IN
THE EAST REALLY DEPEND ON THE ABILITY OF A WARM SECTOR TO OPEN UP.
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD WARM UP
A BIT MORE IN THE EAST AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. OVERALL.. THE RUC LOOKED LIKE THE BEST FIT FOR THE JOB AS
IT SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THE H700 LOW IN ALL MODELS SHOULD DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE H500 MB COLD POOL LAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS NEB. THIS WILL LIFT SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS NORTH THROUGH ERN
NEB. THIS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT MUCH
MORE AS THE BETTER FOCUS IS ACROSS THE NORTH...PRESUMABLY. THERE ARE
QUITE A RANGE OF MODEL RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THIS EVENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS LESSER QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THAT THE BEST
FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ON MONDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
STACKED AND CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...AS THE DRIER AIR PUSHES EAST...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER THE MAY SUN. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TOMORROW...REMAINING
IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SOME
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH DAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING THE START AND STOP TIMES OF THE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING NEGATIVE
SKILL WITH THIS FEATURE SO ALL FORECASTS WILL BE BASED ON ONGOING RADAR
DATA AND ASSUME A STEADY STATE. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
INTRUDE UPON NRN NEB ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. BEST APPROACH
IS TO USE OBSERVATIONS SINCE HIGH CLOUDS ARE BLOCKING THE VIEW OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING NO SKILL WITH THAT EITHER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...CDC
000
FXUS63 KLBF 190853
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN COLO WILL SPARK
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. SIMILARLY THE COLD POOL FCST
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FCST TODAY COULD PRODUCE A FEW STORMS
WITH MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WEST OF HIGHWAY 183.
IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S WEST TO MID 70S EAST. TEMPS IN
THE EAST REALLY DEPEND ON THE ABILITY OF A WARM SECTOR TO OPEN UP.
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPS COULD WARM UP
A BIT MORE IN THE EAST AND THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER. OVERALL.. THE RUC LOOKED LIKE THE BEST FIT FOR THE JOB AS
IT SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THE H700 LOW IN ALL MODELS SHOULD DEEPEN ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE H500 MB COLD POOL LAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS NEB. THIS WILL LIFT SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS NORTH THROUGH ERN
NEB. THIS SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT MUCH
MORE AS THE BETTER FOCUS IS ACROSS THE NORTH...PRESUMABLY. THERE ARE
QUITE A RANGE OF MODEL RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THIS EVENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS LESSER QPF AMOUNTS GIVEN THAT THE BEST
FORCING IS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ON MONDAY MORNING...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
STACKED AND CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...AS THE DRIER AIR PUSHES EAST...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
UNDER THE MAY SUN. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TOMORROW...REMAINING
IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SOME
HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MID LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE
DIMINISHING EACH DAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AGAIN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE STORM IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAD MOVED OUT OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS WILL BRING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG AND SOME MARGINAL CEILINGS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTER 15Z AS A FRONT GOES
THROUGH NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...SPRINGER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 190251
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
951 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AT H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND RIDGING INTO GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH INVERTED
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND DRY LINE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE BEHIND THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE DECREASED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND TO CLEAR A LARGE PART OF THE TORNADO WATCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INITIAL ROUND OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THROUGH CENTRAL AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BACKED
SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING JUST OFF THE SFC EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE TIME FRAME FROM 600 PM CDT TO 900 PM CDT LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLE BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL
LIKELY MERGE EARLY THIS EVENING INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE COMPLEX.
AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE
WILL BE THE RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY...AND THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT.
BASICALLY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND BEYOND. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DICTATE
THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FEATURE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS IT MAY BE IN
OR VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...SO HIGHER POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MODELS HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH HANDLING OF H5 LOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ALL IN ALL WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WIDE
SPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR
HYDROLOGY. SEVERE WEATHER FOCUS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
SUNDAY EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO BROKEN BOW. NAM FASTEST
AND DRIEST MODEL AND OUTLIER FROM EC AND GFS. HAVE TRENDED MORE
TOWARDS THE EC AND GFS SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS HAVE WARMED SOME IN
THE EXTENDED WITH +6C AT 850MB BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
RISK OF WIND GREATER THAN 35G45KT IN AND NEAR THE STORMS ALONG WITH
HAIL OF ONE INCH DIAMETER OR GREATER. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AFTER 08Z. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 23-05Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS WILL BRING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG AND SOME MARGINAL CEILINGS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 182321
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AT H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND RIDGING INTO GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH INVERTED
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND DRY LINE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INITIAL ROUND OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THROUGH CENTRAL AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BACKED
SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING JUST OFF THE SFC EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE TIME FRAME FROM 600 PM CDT TO 900 PM CDT LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLE BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL
LIKELY MERGE EARLY THIS EVENING INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE COMPLEX.
AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE
WILL BE THE RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY...AND THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT.
BASICALLY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND BEYOND. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DICTATE
THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FEATURE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS IT MAY BE IN
OR VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...SO HIGHER POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MODELS HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH HANDLING OF H5 LOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ALL IN ALL WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WIDE
SPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR
HYDROLOGY. SEVERE WEATHER FOCUS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
SUNDAY EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO BROKEN BOW. NAM FASTEST
AND DRIEST MODEL AND OUTLIER FROM EC AND GFS. HAVE TRENDED MORE
TOWARDS THE EC AND GFS SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS HAVE WARMED SOME IN
THE EXTENDED WITH +6C AT 850MB BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
RISK OF WIND GREATER THAN 35G45KT IN AND NEAR THE STORMS ALONG WITH
HAIL OF ONE INCH DIAMETER OR GREATER. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
THE STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AFTER 08Z. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 23-05Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS WILL BRING AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG AND SOME MARGINAL CEILINGS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTER 15Z...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 181935
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
IN EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW CENTER THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND WARM FRONT EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN KS. SFC LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NEAR GOODLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WILL
ARC NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FROM THE LOW CENTER.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AROUND IMPERIAL AND HAYES CENTER
AROUND 400 PM CDT ON THE NOSE OF VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/DRY LINE WHICH WILL BE PUNCHING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
STORMS LIKELY TO BECOME SUPERCELLS QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLE SHEARED
ATMOSPHERE. BACKED SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING JUST OFF THE
SFC EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TIME FRAME FROM 600 PM CDT TO 900 PM
CDT LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLE BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL
LIKELY MERGE EARLY THIS EVENING INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE COMPLEX.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AT H5 UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND RIDGING INTO GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH INVERTED
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND DRY LINE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013 TSTMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INITIAL ROUND OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THROUGH CENTRAL AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BACKED
SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING JUST OFF THE SFC EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE TIME FRAME FROM 600 PM CDT TO 900 PM CDT LOOKS TO BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLE BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL
LIKELY MERGE EARLY THIS EVENING INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE COMPLEX.
AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE
WILL BE THE RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONTINUED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY...AND THIS IS NOT A
SURPRISE DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT.
BASICALLY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND BEYOND. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DICTATE
THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FEATURE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS IT MAY BE IN
OR VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...SO HIGHER POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE LOCATED IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MODELS HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH HANDLING OF H5 LOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT STILL ALL IN ALL WITH SUTTLE DIFFERENCES WIDE
SPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CONCERNS FOR
HYDROLOGY. SEVERE WEATHER FOCUS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON
SUNDAY EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO BROKEN BOW. NAM FASTEST
AND DRIEST MODEL AND OUTLIER FROM EC AND GFS. HAVE TRENDED MORE
TOWARDS THE EC AND GFS SLOWER SOLUTION. MODELS HAVE WARMED SOME IN
THE EXTENDED WITH +6C AT 850MB BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN A
GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS.
TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST...BUT VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR
ANY STORM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...TAYLOR
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
000
FXUS63 KLBF 181816
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
116 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
IN EASTERN COLORADO...WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW CENTER THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND WARM FRONT EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHERN KS. SFC LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NEAR GOODLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT WILL
ARC NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FROM THE LOW CENTER.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AROUND IMPERIAL AND HAYES CENTER
AROUND 400 PM CDT ON THE NOSE OF VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/DRY LINE WHICH WILL BE PUNCHING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
STORMS LIKELY TO BECOME SUPERCELLS QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLE SHEARED
ATMOSPHERE. BACKED SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING JUST OFF THE
SFC EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TIME FRAME FROM 600 PM CDT TO 900 PM
CDT LOOKS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLE BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER...IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL
LIKELY MERGE EARLY THIS EVENING INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY ADVANCE
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE COMPLEX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE RAP13 SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE STRATUS LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WAS ALSO THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE STRATUS SHOULD BUILD THROUGH THE FCST AREA ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AM AND THEN MIX OUT LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE ONGOING TSTMS AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE. THEREAFTER THE RUC PUSHES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND SHARPENS UP
THE DRY LINE ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE WHILE
MAINTAINING A STRONG CAP WHICH SHOULD BREAK AROUND 22Z ON THE
DRYLINE. SPC PROVIDED USEFUL INSIGHT INTO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
EVENT SUGGESTING LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES EAST
TOWARD HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED TOWARD SUNSET OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS...ROUGHLY
01Z-04Z.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF AND WRAPPING UP OVER SIOUX FALLS AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOLER CONDITIONS AND A
BROAD SCALE AREA OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW. LOOKING CLOSER AT SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA IN
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE-RICH AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS OF
LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS.
TSTMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST...BUT VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR
ANY STORM.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
000
FXUS63 KLBF 181538
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1038 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST HAND SFC ANALYSIS HAS A 1004 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE EAST OF LA JUNTA COLORADO...WITH A DRY LINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND
WARM FRONT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KS. SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT
NORTH TO NEAR GOODLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT
ARCING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INITIATE AROUND IMPERIAL AND HAYES CENTER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ON NOSE OF VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRY LINE WHICH WILL BE
PUNCHING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS LIKELY TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO A VERY TO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLE SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. BACKED WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLE BASEBALL
SIZE OR LARGER...IS EXPECTED. STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE EARLY THIS
EVENING INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY ADVANCE NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE COMPLEX.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE RAP13 SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE STRATUS LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WAS ALSO THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE STRATUS SHOULD BUILD THROUGH THE FCST AREA ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AM AND THEN MIX OUT LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE ONGOING TSTMS AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE. THEREAFTER THE RUC PUSHES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND SHARPENS UP
THE DRY LINE ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE WHILE
MAINTAINING A STRONG CAP WHICH SHOULD BREAK AROUND 22Z ON THE
DRYLINE. SPC PROVIDED USEFUL INSIGHT INTO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
EVENT SUGGESTING LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES EAST
TOWARD HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED TOWARD SUNSET OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS...ROUGHLY
01Z-04Z.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF AND WRAPPING UP OVER SIOUX FALLS AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOLER CONDITIONS AND A
BROAD SCALE AREA OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW. LOOKING CLOSER AT SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA IN
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE-RICH AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD ERODE WITH VFR DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. SEVERE
STORMS COULD BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN NEB VCNTY KIML AROUND
20Z-22Z. STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. VFR COULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 03Z IN THE NEB PANHANDLE TO 09Z IN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...CDC
000
FXUS63 KLBF 181119 AAA
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE RAP13 SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE STRATUS LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WAS ALSO THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE STRATUS SHOULD BUILD THROUGH THE FCST AREA ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AM AND THEN MIX OUT LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE ONGOING TSTMS AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE. THEREAFTER THE RUC PUSHES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND SHARPENS UP
THE DRY LINE ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE WHILE
MAINTAINING A STRONG CAP WHICH SHOULD BREAK AROUND 22Z ON THE
DRYLINE. SPC PROVIDED USEFUL INSIGHT INTO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
EVENT SUGGESTING LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES EAST
TOWARD HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED TOWARD SUNSET OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS...ROUGHLY
01Z-04Z.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF AND WRAPPING UP OVER SIOUX FALLS AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOLER CONDITIONS AND A
BROAD SCALE AREA OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW. LOOKING CLOSER AT SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA IN
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE-RICH AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD ERODE WITH VFR DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17Z-19Z. SEVERE
STORMS COULD BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN NEB VCNTY KIML AROUND
20Z-22Z. STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. VFR COULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
AROUND 03Z IN THE NEB PANHANDLE TO 09Z IN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FCST AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...CDC
000
FXUS63 KLBF 180805
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE RAP13 SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE STRATUS LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WAS ALSO THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE STRATUS SHOULD BUILD THROUGH THE FCST AREA ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS AM AND THEN MIX OUT LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE ONGOING TSTMS AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNRISE. THEREAFTER THE RUC PUSHES
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND SHARPENS UP
THE DRY LINE ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE WHILE
MAINTAINING A STRONG CAP WHICH SHOULD BREAK AROUND 22Z ON THE
DRYLINE. SPC PROVIDED USEFUL INSIGHT INTO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
EVENT SUGGESTING LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRY LINE. THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES EAST
TOWARD HIGHWAY 83 THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK AND INCREASE IN SPEED TOWARD SUNSET OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS...ROUGHLY
01Z-04Z.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE FCST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE TROUGH CLOSING OFF AND WRAPPING UP OVER SIOUX FALLS AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COOLER CONDITIONS AND A
BROAD SCALE AREA OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW. LOOKING CLOSER AT SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA IN
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE-RICH AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
HIGHS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG HIGHWAYS 83 AND 61 OVERNIGHT.
THESE CIGS SHOULD ERODE TO VFR BY ROUGHLY 17Z-19Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
21Z-23Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL COMMENCE
IN THE SOUTH AND SPREAD NORTH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...CDC
000
FXUS63 KLBF 180527 AAA
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AT H5 SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS AREA IS ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...ALSO A SFC FOCUS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SFC BASED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
WELL MIX FAIRLY DRY BOY LAYER COULD ALSO YIELD A DAMAGING WIND
GUST OR TWO. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
EVENING...WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO STATUS DEVELOPING DUE TO AN
INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE.
THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE A PLAYER IN SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.
THE AREA WHERE STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FARTHER WEST STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE DURING THE LATE MORNING...LEADING TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW ACROSS WESTERN KS. STORMS
SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS. THESE INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO A
LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL THREAT. AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER STORMS MERGE INTO A LINEAR
FASHION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
NEAR TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. WITH COOL FRONT INVERTED TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ALREADY HAVE T+ MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S FOR HIGHS. MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY THE COOLEST DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL TO +3C HIGHS IN THE 50S. WITH BLOCKING PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM AND UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA A MIXTURE OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CARRIED SATURDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS EXPECTED. AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG HIGHWAYS 83 AND 61 OVERNIGHT.
THESE CIGS SHOULD ERODE TO VFR BY ROUGHLY 17Z-19Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
21Z-23Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL COMMENCE
IN THE SOUTH AND SPREAD NORTH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC
000
FXUS63 KLBF 172345
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AT H5 SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS AREA IS ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...ALSO A SFC FOCUS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SFC BASED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
WELL MIX FAIRLY DRY BOY LAYER COULD ALSO YIELD A DAMAGING WIND
GUST OR TWO. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
EVENING...WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO STATUS DEVELOPING DUE TO AN
INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE.
THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE A PLAYER IN SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.
THE AREA WHERE STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FARTHER WEST STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE DURING THE LATE MORNING...LEADING TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW ACROSS WESTERN KS. STORMS
SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS. THESE INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO A
LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL THREAT. AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER STORMS MERGE INTO A LINEAR
FASHION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
NEAR TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. WITH COOL FRONT INVERTED TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ALREADY HAVE T+ MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S FOR HIGHS. MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY THE COOLEST DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL TO +3C HIGHS IN THE 50S. WITH BLOCKING PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM AND UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA A MIXTURE OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CARRIED SATURDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS EXPECTED. AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL MOVE THROUGH VTN
AND NORTH OF TIF FROM 0030-0200Z...ANW ABOUT 0200Z AND ONL
0330-0400Z. AFTER THAT...THE WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN UNTIL STORMS
BEGIN TO REDEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z.
ALSO...STRATUS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND 09Z. THOSE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
TO LBF-OGA BY 11Z AND TIF-AIA BY 12Z. THE STATUS AND FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 15Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 172058
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AT H5 SIMILAR PATTERN TO YESTERDAY WITH TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS AREA IS ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...ALSO A SFC FOCUS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THAT AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SFC BASED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
WELL MIX FAIRLY DRY BOY LAYER COULD ALSO YIELD A DAMAGING WIND
GUST OR TWO. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
EVENING...WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO STATUS DEVELOPING DUE TO AN
INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE.
THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE A PLAYER IN SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.
THE AREA WHERE STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FARTHER WEST STRATUS SHOULD
ERODE DURING THE LATE MORNING...LEADING TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...WITH SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF AN INTENSIFYING SFC LOW ACROSS WESTERN KS. STORMS
SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS. THESE INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO A
LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL THREAT. AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER STORMS MERGE INTO A LINEAR
FASHION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
NEAR TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND LONG TERM MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. WITH COOL FRONT INVERTED TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA ALREADY HAVE T+ MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S FOR HIGHS. MAY SEE THE SUN ON WEDNESDAY THE COOLEST DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES COOL TO +3C HIGHS IN THE 50S. WITH BLOCKING PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM AND UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA A MIXTURE OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CARRIED SATURDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY. BENEFICIAL RAINS EXPECTED. AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...TAYLOR
000
FXUS63 KLBF 172022
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
322 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING A SHARP WARMUP TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TODAY. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT...EVEN IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL HELP KEEP
DEWPOINTS SUSTAINED IN THE UPPER 40S EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER
50S CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TO RESULT IN
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S...WITH NEAR 90 WESTERN COUNTIES.
SKIES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE INDICATED
BY THE MODELS IN AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING 20
TO 30 POPS TO NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCAPES 0-3KM INCREASE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON REACHING 2000-3000
J/KG. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH OSHKOSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORM MOTION IS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 20KT THIS EVENING...THEREFORE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR
EAST AS A BUTTE THROUGH THEDFORD THIS EVENING. AND DESPITE A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FURTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED STORM ARE POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTRODUCED
MENTION TO THIS AREA. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SO KEPT MENTION FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. IN
ADDITION...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE... ADEQUATE MIXING
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL SO DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE SEVERE STORM
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL TRANSITION EAST CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE-SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES PRIOR TO THIS TIME PERIOD WILL STAY IN THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CLOSER...MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND A DRYLINE
GOING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO NEBRASKA. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST...BRINGING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WAS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FORECAST AND HAVE NEAR 60 TO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT
DAY TO SEE HOW EFFICIENTLY THIS MOISTURE IS BEING BROUGHT
NORTHWARD. EVEN WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...HUMIDITY
WILL BE AT LEVELS MUCH OF THIS AREA HASN/T EXPERIENCED FOR A
WHILE. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP TO CREATE STRONG INSTABILITY OF 2K-
4K J/KG ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOOKING TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS SO CONTINUE TO LOOK AT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR FIRST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT OF THE YEAR
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS A QUESTION TO
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STAY CAPPED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...IT WILL
BE EJECTING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BRING ENOUGH LIFT
INTO THE AREA TO TRIGGER STORMS. FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING THIS
DIRECTION...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING AFTER 21Z AND INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO
THE EAST...SO BELIEVE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL END BY
THIS POINT LOCALLY. AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ISN/T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE ORIENTATION AND FOCUS IS
AN EXTRA POSITIVE POINT TO GETTING CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
TORNADOS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SATURDAY AS MANY PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A VALID
THREAT TO PAY ATTENTION TO.
ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WILL BE STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. THE NAM IS INDICATING A GOOD LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DON/T SCOUR OUT
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS.
DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE STRATUS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE QUICKLY SO DIDN/T
LOWER HIGHS BY TOO MUCH.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY...OR WILL SLOWLY ROTATE
AROUND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME-FRAME. CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD BE THAT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH DON/T ANTICIPATE A LOT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR ALOFT /NEAR 5C AT 850MB/ WILL KEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS STEEP TO KEEP AT LEAST MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER MANY OF THESE DAYS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT LOWER /AND BELOW NORMAL/ AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS DOWN
COOLER AIR. SO...HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A NARROW...BUT STRONG RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DID START TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BIT...AND IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PATTERN WOULD
EXPECT THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
000
FXUS63 KLBF 171128
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING A SHARP WARMUP TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TODAY. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT...EVEN IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL HELP KEEP
DEWPOINTS SUSTAINED IN THE UPPER 40S EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER
50S CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TO RESULT IN
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S...WITH NEAR 90 WESTERN COUNTIES.
SKIES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE INDICATED
BY THE MODELS IN AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING 20
TO 30 POPS TO NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCAPES 0-3KM INCREASE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON REACHING 2000-3000
J/KG. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH OSHKOSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORM MOTION IS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 20KT THIS EVENING...THEREFORE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR
EAST AS A BUTTE THROUGH THEDFORD THIS EVENING. AND DESPITE A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FURTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED STORM ARE POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTRODUCED
MENTION TO THIS AREA. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SO KEPT MENTION FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. IN
ADDITION...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE... ADEQUATE MIXING
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL SO DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE SEVERE STORM
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL TRANSITION EAST CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE-SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES PRIOR TO THIS TIME PERIOD WILL STAY IN THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CLOSER...MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND A DRYLINE
GOING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO NEBRASKA. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST...BRINGING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WAS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FORECAST AND HAVE NEAR 60 TO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT
DAY TO SEE HOW EFFICIENTLY THIS MOISTURE IS BEING BROUGHT
NORTHWARD. EVEN WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...HUMIDITY
WILL BE AT LEVELS MUCH OF THIS AREA HASN/T EXPERIENCED FOR A
WHILE. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP TO CREATE STRONG INSTABILITY OF 2K-
4K J/KG ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOOKING TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS SO CONTINUE TO LOOK AT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR FIRST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT OF THE YEAR
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS A QUESTION TO
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STAY CAPPED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...IT WILL
BE EJECTING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BRING ENOUGH LIFT
INTO THE AREA TO TRIGGER STORMS. FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING THIS
DIRECTION...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING AFTER 21Z AND INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO
THE EAST...SO BELIEVE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL END BY
THIS POINT LOCALLY. AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ISN/T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE ORIENTATION AND FOCUS IS
AN EXTRA POSITIVE POINT TO GETTING CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
TORNADOS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SATURDAY AS MANY PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A VALID
THREAT TO PAY ATTENTION TO.
ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WILL BE STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. THE NAM IS INDICATING A GOOD LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DON/T SCOUR OUT
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS.
DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE STRATUS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE QUICKLY SO DIDN/T
LOWER HIGHS BY TOO MUCH.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY...OR WILL SLOWLY ROTATE
AROUND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME-FRAME. CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD BE THAT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH DON/T ANTICIPATE A LOT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR ALOFT /NEAR 5C AT 850MB/ WILL KEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS STEEP TO KEEP AT LEAST MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER MANY OF THESE DAYS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT LOWER /AND BELOW NORMAL/ AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS DOWN
COOLER AIR. SO...HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A NARROW...BUT STRONG RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DID START TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BIT...AND IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PATTERN WOULD
EXPECT THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LIFR CEILINGS AT KVTN SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE LATE MORNING TO
14G22KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT 10-15KT.
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SO HAVE INCLUDED AN IFR CEILING OF OVC005 FOR KLBF AFTER
10Z/18TH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG
000
FXUS63 KLBF 171025
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
525 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING A SHARP WARMUP TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TODAY. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT...EVEN IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL HELP KEEP
DEWPOINTS SUSTAINED IN THE UPPER 40S EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER
50S CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TO RESULT IN
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S...WITH NEAR 90 WESTERN COUNTIES.
SKIES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE INDICATED
BY THE MODELS IN AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING 20
TO 30 POPS TO NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCAPES 0-3KM INCREASE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON REACHING 2000-3000
J/KG. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH OSHKOSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORM MOTION IS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 20KT THIS EVENING...THEREFORE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR
EAST AS A BUTTE THROUGH THEDFORD THIS EVENING. AND DESPITE A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FURTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED STORM ARE POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTRODUCED
MENTION TO THIS AREA. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SO KEPT MENTION FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. IN
ADDITION...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE... ADEQUATE MIXING
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL SO DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE SEVERE STORM
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL TRANSITION EAST CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE-SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES PRIOR TO THIS TIME PERIOD WILL STAY IN THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CLOSER...MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND A DRYLINE
GOING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO NEBRASKA. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST...BRINGING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WAS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FORECAST AND HAVE NEAR 60 TO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT
DAY TO SEE HOW EFFICIENTLY THIS MOISTURE IS BEING BROUGHT
NORTHWARD. EVEN WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...HUMIDITY
WILL BE AT LEVELS MUCH OF THIS AREA HASN/T EXPERIENCED FOR A
WHILE. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP TO CREATE STRONG INSTABILITY OF 2K-
4K J/KG ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOOKING TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS SO CONTINUE TO LOOK AT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR FIRST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT OF THE YEAR
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS A QUESTION TO
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STAY CAPPED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...IT WILL
BE EJECTING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BRING ENOUGH LIFT
INTO THE AREA TO TRIGGER STORMS. FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING THIS
DIRECTION...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING AFTER 21Z AND INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO
THE EAST...SO BELIEVE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL END BY
THIS POINT LOCALLY. AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ISN/T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE ORIENTATION AND FOCUS IS
AN EXTRA POSITIVE POINT TO GETTING CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
TORNADOS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SATURDAY AS MANY PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A VALID
THREAT TO PAY ATTENTION TO.
ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WILL BE STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. THE NAM IS INDICATING A GOOD LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DON/T SCOUR OUT
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS.
DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE STRATUS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE QUICKLY SO DIDN/T
LOWER HIGHS BY TOO MUCH.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY...OR WILL SLOWLY ROTATE
AROUND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME-FRAME. CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD BE THAT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH DON/T ANTICIPATE A LOT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR ALOFT /NEAR 5C AT 850MB/ WILL KEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS STEEP TO KEEP AT LEAST MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER MANY OF THESE DAYS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT LOWER /AND BELOW NORMAL/ AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS DOWN
COOLER AIR. SO...HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A NARROW...BUT STRONG RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DID START TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BIT...AND IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PATTERN WOULD
EXPECT THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED
AT 524 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT IN
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH THE STORMS IN EXTREME NORTHERN NEBRASKA...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A STORM COULD AFFECT VTN FRIDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z
AND POSSIBLY GET TO MULLEN. THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 30
PERCENT THAT ANY ONE SITE WILL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS...SO NO MENTION
OF THUNDER IS INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR VTN OR LBF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG
000
FXUS63 KLBF 170857
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING A SHARP WARMUP TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION TODAY. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT...EVEN IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL HELP KEEP
DEWPOINTS SUSTAINED IN THE UPPER 40S EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER
50S CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TO RESULT IN
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S...WITH NEAR 90 WESTERN COUNTIES.
SKIES LOOK TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE INDICATED
BY THE MODELS IN AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING 20
TO 30 POPS TO NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MUCAPES 0-3KM INCREASE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON REACHING 2000-3000
J/KG. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED TODAY...EXCEPT FOR AREAS
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH OSHKOSH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORM MOTION IS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 20KT THIS EVENING...THEREFORE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR
EAST AS A BUTTE THROUGH THEDFORD THIS EVENING. AND DESPITE A
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE FURTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED STORM ARE POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTRODUCED
MENTION TO THIS AREA. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SO KEPT MENTION FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE GOING THERE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. IN
ADDITION...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE... ADEQUATE MIXING
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL SO DID NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE SEVERE STORM
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL TRANSITION EAST CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEVELOP ON THE LEE-SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES PRIOR TO THIS TIME PERIOD WILL STAY IN THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GETS CLOSER...MODELS
ARE INDICATING A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND A DRYLINE
GOING SOUTH INTO TEXAS. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO NEBRASKA. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE VERY ROBUST...BRINGING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WAS A BIT
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FORECAST AND HAVE NEAR 60 TO THE MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT
DAY TO SEE HOW EFFICIENTLY THIS MOISTURE IS BEING BROUGHT
NORTHWARD. EVEN WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...HUMIDITY
WILL BE AT LEVELS MUCH OF THIS AREA HASN/T EXPERIENCED FOR A
WHILE. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP TO CREATE STRONG INSTABILITY OF 2K-
4K J/KG ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LOOKING TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS SO CONTINUE TO LOOK AT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR FIRST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT OF THE YEAR
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS A QUESTION TO
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THOUGHTS ARE THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STAY CAPPED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER...IT WILL
BE EJECTING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BRING ENOUGH LIFT
INTO THE AREA TO TRIGGER STORMS. FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING THIS
DIRECTION...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING AFTER 21Z AND INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO
THE EAST...SO BELIEVE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL END BY
THIS POINT LOCALLY. AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ISN/T PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE ORIENTATION AND FOCUS IS
AN EXTRA POSITIVE POINT TO GETTING CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
TORNADOS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SATURDAY AS MANY PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST THIS IS A VALID
THREAT TO PAY ATTENTION TO.
ONE CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WILL BE STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL. THE NAM IS INDICATING A GOOD LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DON/T SCOUR OUT
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY
THE CHANCES FOR STORMS.
DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE STRATUS
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME WITH SUN...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE QUICKLY SO DIDN/T
LOWER HIGHS BY TOO MUCH.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY...OR WILL SLOWLY ROTATE
AROUND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
TIME-FRAME. CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD BE THAT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH DON/T ANTICIPATE A LOT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR ALOFT /NEAR 5C AT 850MB/ WILL KEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE MID LEVELS STEEP TO KEEP AT LEAST MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER MANY OF THESE DAYS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE A BIT LOWER /AND BELOW NORMAL/ AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS DOWN
COOLER AIR. SO...HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING A NARROW...BUT STRONG RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DID START TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
BIT...AND IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PATTERN WOULD
EXPECT THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE ENDING BY 07Z AT ONL. IN THE
MEANTIME...WIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
VRB22-28G32-40KT AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT...THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z FRIDAY
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS VTN-TIF-LBF AND EAST WILL BE
AFTER 00Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
000
FXUS63 KLBF 170249
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
949 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
AT H5 CLOSED CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST CONUS AND TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. STRONG WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER NEBRASKA.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT IN THE
NORTHERN SANDHILLS. IN THE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 2...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED AND THE FORCING HAS
MOVED NORTH. THEREFORE...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
LIKELY AND WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION...CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
EASTWARD...AT LEAST UNTIL IT REACHES THE AREAS COOLED THIS EVENING
BY EARLIER CONVECTION. SOMEWHERE EAST OF MERRIMAN-OGALLALA AND
WEST OF AINSWORTH-BROKEN BOW...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DISSIPATE. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE STORMS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME SEVERE BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALSO...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS A COMPACT MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES EAST OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP...AND LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES GREATER THAN 1000
J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 30KTS OR SO. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT SHIFT EAST WITH THE MID
LEVEL WAVE. OTHERWISE HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A WARM DAY. HIGHS APPROACHING 90
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. A WARM FRONT
WILL SET UP ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSAGE...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
ANY STORM THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ONCE AGAIN BE ON
THE STRONG SIDE...IF NOT SEVERE...AS SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR IS
AVAILABLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN MODELS HAVING
MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER PATTERN. EC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN LONG TERM WITH GFS THE OUTLIER. RIDGE SHARPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WITH NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING
NORTH JUST TO THE WEST OF FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AND TROUGH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA DRY LINE
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...STATIONARY BOUNDARY WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WARM SECTOR IS CAPPED FRIDAY EVENING
WITH WEAKER CAP NORTH NEAR BOUNDARY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE BEST DAY FOR SEVERE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH GOOD SETUP. BULK SHEAR NUMBERS LOOK GOOD TO GET SOME
SUPER CELLS. INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. 700MB
WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDE SPREAD ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HIGHS IN THE 80S
SATURDAY COOLING TO THE 70S SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. MAY HAVE TO
TREND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...BUT THEY SHOULD BE ENDING BY 07Z AT ONL. IN THE
MEANTIME...WIND IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORMS WILL BE
VRB22-28G32-40KT AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE. AFTER THAT...THE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW UNTIL AFTER 21Z FRIDAY
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS VTN-TIF-LBF AND EAST WILL BE
AFTER 00Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
| 
