Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLBF 031123 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
523 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW BAND
ACROSS NRN NEB WILL EXIT THIS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
UNDERCUTS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE LEAVING A GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW
ABOVE 850 MB.

THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST EXCEPT TO SAY THE
MODELS CAME IN A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A
WOBBLE IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND DECENT
MID AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD APPEAR
LIKELY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR...RAP...MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG SUGGESTS
GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE GUSTS. SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK.

WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. A CHECK ON THE
HIGHWAY CAMS INDICATES THE ROAD SURFACES HAVE NOT YET CROSSED THE
FREEZING MARK AND ONLY THE CHAPPELL CAMERA APPEARED TO BE COLLECTING
ICE ON THE LENS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
SIGNS OF ICING WHICH WOULD WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z THE ICING
THREAT SHOULD END.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE
WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE THE RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WIND CHILL READING ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES
WILL BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MINUS 20 THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THIS ELEMENT OF THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE GOING IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY
DOWNSLOPING WARMING WESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY.  THUS...BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY ANTICIPATED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS SUPREME.  HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE FORECAST WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DANGEROUSLY COLD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS TEN OR COLDER UNTIL
NOON.  THEREAFTER...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT A SHARP TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST TO BAJA WILL SPLIT AND PROGRESS EAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAVE A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT ALLOW THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.  AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS...THE PATTERN WOULD THEN FAVOR A MORE
DIRECT PATH FROM THE PACIFIC...RATHER THAN THE ARCTIC WHICH HAS BEEN
OBSERVED LATELY.  AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH...LEAVING BEHIND A GREATER SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND.  THE
DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA TO PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S BY THURSDAY...WITH
50S ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.  THE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THIS AIRMASS HAS A
GREATER PACIFIC INFLUENCE...THUS TEMPERATURES ONLY ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SLIGHTLY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE GFS HAS CAME IN
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES
NEARING MINUS 5 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...WILL SEE IN THE COMING DAYS.  OTHERWISE THE WAVE ARRIVES
WILL LITTLE FANFARE...MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE TROPOSPHERE ARE
RATHER LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.  BEYOND
SATURDAY...A DOWNSLOPING REGIME REIGNS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER WARMUP.  THE MODELS ADVERTISE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EAST
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD RESPOND BY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR/LOCAL LIFR IN SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FOG CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING AND THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR 15Z-18Z.
VFR/MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 18Z ONWARD.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 34025G40KT THIS MORNING AND DECREASE
DURING THE AFTN.

MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH
TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE SNOW IS MORE LIKELY.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 031123 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
523 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW BAND
ACROSS NRN NEB WILL EXIT THIS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
UNDERCUTS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE LEAVING A GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW
ABOVE 850 MB.

THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST EXCEPT TO SAY THE
MODELS CAME IN A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A
WOBBLE IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND DECENT
MID AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD APPEAR
LIKELY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR...RAP...MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG SUGGESTS
GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE GUSTS. SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK.

WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. A CHECK ON THE
HIGHWAY CAMS INDICATES THE ROAD SURFACES HAVE NOT YET CROSSED THE
FREEZING MARK AND ONLY THE CHAPPELL CAMERA APPEARED TO BE COLLECTING
ICE ON THE LENS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
SIGNS OF ICING WHICH WOULD WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z THE ICING
THREAT SHOULD END.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE
WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE THE RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WIND CHILL READING ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES
WILL BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MINUS 20 THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THIS ELEMENT OF THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE GOING IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY
DOWNSLOPING WARMING WESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY.  THUS...BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY ANTICIPATED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS SUPREME.  HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE FORECAST WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DANGEROUSLY COLD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS TEN OR COLDER UNTIL
NOON.  THEREAFTER...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT A SHARP TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST TO BAJA WILL SPLIT AND PROGRESS EAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAVE A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT ALLOW THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.  AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS...THE PATTERN WOULD THEN FAVOR A MORE
DIRECT PATH FROM THE PACIFIC...RATHER THAN THE ARCTIC WHICH HAS BEEN
OBSERVED LATELY.  AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH...LEAVING BEHIND A GREATER SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND.  THE
DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA TO PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S BY THURSDAY...WITH
50S ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.  THE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THIS AIRMASS HAS A
GREATER PACIFIC INFLUENCE...THUS TEMPERATURES ONLY ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SLIGHTLY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE GFS HAS CAME IN
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES
NEARING MINUS 5 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...WILL SEE IN THE COMING DAYS.  OTHERWISE THE WAVE ARRIVES
WILL LITTLE FANFARE...MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE TROPOSPHERE ARE
RATHER LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.  BEYOND
SATURDAY...A DOWNSLOPING REGIME REIGNS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER WARMUP.  THE MODELS ADVERTISE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EAST
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD RESPOND BY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

IFR/LOCAL LIFR IN SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND FOG CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING AND THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR 15Z-18Z.
VFR/MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 18Z ONWARD.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 34025G40KT THIS MORNING AND DECREASE
DURING THE AFTN.

MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. LOWEST FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH
TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER WHERE SNOW IS MORE LIKELY.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 030906
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW BAND
ACROSS NRN NEB WILL EXIT THIS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
UNDERCUTS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE LEAVING A GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW
ABOVE 850 MB.

THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST EXCEPT TO SAY THE
MODELS CAME IN A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A
WOBBLE IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND DECENT
MID AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD APPEAR
LIKELY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR...RAP...MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG SUGGESTS
GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE GUSTS. SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK.

WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. A CHECK ON THE
HIGHWAY CAMS INDICATES THE ROAD SURFACES HAVE NOT YET CROSSED THE
FREEZING MARK AND ONLY THE CHAPPELL CAMERA APPEARED TO BE COLLECTING
ICE ON THE LENS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
SIGNS OF ICING WHICH WOULD WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z THE ICING
THREAT SHOULD END.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE
WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE THE RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WIND CHILL READING ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES
WILL BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MINUS 20 THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THIS ELEMENT OF THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE GOING IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY
DOWNSLOPING WARMING WESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY.  THUS...BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY ANTICIPATED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS SUPREME.  HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE FORECAST WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DANGEROUSLY COLD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS TEN OR COLDER UNTIL
NOON.  THEREAFTER...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT A SHARP TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST TO BAJA WILL SPLIT AND PROGRESS EAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAVE A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT ALLOW THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.  AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS...THE PATTERN WOULD THEN FAVOR A MORE
DIRECT PATH FROM THE PACIFIC...RATHER THAN THE ARCTIC WHICH HAS BEEN
OBSERVED LATELY.  AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH...LEAVING BEHIND A GREATER SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND.  THE
DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA TO PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S BY THURSDAY...WITH
50S ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.  THE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THIS AIRMASS HAS A
GREATER PACIFIC INFLUENCE...THUS TEMPERATURES ONLY ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SLIGHTLY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE GFS HAS CAME IN
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES
NEARING MINUS 5 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...WILL SEE IN THE COMING DAYS.  OTHERWISE THE WAVE ARRIVES
WILL LITTLE FANFARE...MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE TROPOSPHERE ARE
RATHER LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.  BEYOND
SATURDAY...A DOWNSLOPING REGIME REIGNS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER WARMUP.  THE MODELS ADVERTISE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EAST
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD RESPOND BY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. RADAR-INDICATED
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT MAKEST ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR SNOW MOST AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE
NORTH AROUND 10Z AND THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 030906
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAP AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW BAND
ACROSS NRN NEB WILL EXIT THIS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WOULD LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
UNDERCUTS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE LEAVING A GROWTH ZONE FOR SNOW
ABOVE 850 MB.

THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST EXCEPT TO SAY THE
MODELS CAME IN A BIT DRIER ACROSS THE NORTH BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A
WOBBLE IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE ROBUST MOISTURE AND DECENT
MID AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WOULD APPEAR
LIKELY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE HRRR...RAP...MOSGUIDE AND NAMDNG SUGGESTS
GUSTS TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE GUSTS. SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK.

WIDESPREAD FOG HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SFC LOW
PRESSURE IS CAUSING THE WINDS TO BACK WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. A CHECK ON THE
HIGHWAY CAMS INDICATES THE ROAD SURFACES HAVE NOT YET CROSSED THE
FREEZING MARK AND ONLY THE CHAPPELL CAMERA APPEARED TO BE COLLECTING
ICE ON THE LENS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
SIGNS OF ICING WHICH WOULD WARRANT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

ONCE THE ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE FCST AREA AROUND 15Z THE ICING
THREAT SHOULD END.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE
WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE THE RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND
LINGERING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WIND CHILL READING ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES
WILL BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE MINUS 20 THRESHOLD FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. LATER FORECASTS CAN REFINE THIS ELEMENT OF THE
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE GOING IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLACED BY
DOWNSLOPING WARMING WESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY.  THUS...BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD DAY ANTICIPATED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REIGNS SUPREME.  HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE FORECAST WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES DANGEROUSLY COLD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS TEN OR COLDER UNTIL
NOON.  THEREAFTER...THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THAT A SHARP TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
CANADA SOUTHWEST TO BAJA WILL SPLIT AND PROGRESS EAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAVE A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BUT ALLOW THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.  AS THE UPPER LEVELS BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED OVER THE PLAINS...THE PATTERN WOULD THEN FAVOR A MORE
DIRECT PATH FROM THE PACIFIC...RATHER THAN THE ARCTIC WHICH HAS BEEN
OBSERVED LATELY.  AT THE SURFACE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH...LEAVING BEHIND A GREATER SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND.  THE
DOWNSLOPING TRAJECTORY WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND
THE ASSOCIATED WAA TO PROMOTE RISING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.  MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S BY THURSDAY...WITH
50S ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY.  THE MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THIS AIRMASS HAS A
GREATER PACIFIC INFLUENCE...THUS TEMPERATURES ONLY ARE FORECAST TO
COOL SLIGHTLY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE GFS HAS CAME IN
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH COOLER H85 TEMPERATURES
NEARING MINUS 5 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  WE MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS...WILL SEE IN THE COMING DAYS.  OTHERWISE THE WAVE ARRIVES
WILL LITTLE FANFARE...MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE TROPOSPHERE ARE
RATHER LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.  BEYOND
SATURDAY...A DOWNSLOPING REGIME REIGNS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER WARMUP.  THE MODELS ADVERTISE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EAST
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGHS SHOULD RESPOND BY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. RADAR-INDICATED
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT MAKEST ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR SNOW MOST AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE
NORTH AROUND 10Z AND THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 030533
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1133 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. RADAR-INDICATED
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT MAKEST ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR SNOW MOST AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE
NORTH AROUND 10Z AND THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER STAGE AT LEWELLEN HAD DECREASED TO 7.6 FEET
AT 8 PM MST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ICE JAM AT LEWELLEN HAD
BROKEN. ARCTIC AIR COMING INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ICE JAMS TO FORM
AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WARNING IN FORCE UNTIL
THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THE JAM IS BROKEN UP. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD END THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 030533
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1133 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. RADAR-INDICATED
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT MAKEST ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR SNOW MOST AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE
NORTH AROUND 10Z AND THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER STAGE AT LEWELLEN HAD DECREASED TO 7.6 FEET
AT 8 PM MST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ICE JAM AT LEWELLEN HAD
BROKEN. ARCTIC AIR COMING INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ICE JAMS TO FORM
AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WARNING IN FORCE UNTIL
THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THE JAM IS BROKEN UP. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD END THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 030533
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1133 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. RADAR-INDICATED
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT MAKEST ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR SNOW MOST AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE
NORTH AROUND 10Z AND THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER STAGE AT LEWELLEN HAD DECREASED TO 7.6 FEET
AT 8 PM MST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ICE JAM AT LEWELLEN HAD
BROKEN. ARCTIC AIR COMING INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ICE JAMS TO FORM
AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WARNING IN FORCE UNTIL
THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THE JAM IS BROKEN UP. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD END THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 030533
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1133 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. RADAR-INDICATED
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT MAKEST ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN AND THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD
FAVOR SNOW MOST AREAS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER 06Z.
WIND WILL SHIFT TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE
NORTH AROUND 10Z AND THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER STAGE AT LEWELLEN HAD DECREASED TO 7.6 FEET
AT 8 PM MST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ICE JAM AT LEWELLEN HAD
BROKEN. ARCTIC AIR COMING INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ICE JAMS TO FORM
AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WARNING IN FORCE UNTIL
THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THE JAM IS BROKEN UP. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD END THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 030318
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
918 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LXN-LBF-OGA LINE...STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND SPREADING
EAST TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. IN THE NORTH...SNOW IS THE
MOST LIKELY FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ONL-MHN-AIA LINE AND FREEZING
RAIN LIKELY FROM ONL-MHN-AIA TO BBW-OGA.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL 06Z. WIND WILL SHIFT
TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE NORTH AROUND 10Z AND
THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER STAGE AT LEWELLEN HAD DECREASED TO 7.6 FEET
AT 8 PM MST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ICE JAM AT LEWELLEN HAD
BROKEN. ARCTIC AIR COMING INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ICE JAMS TO FORM
AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WARNING IN FORCE UNTIL
THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THE JAM IS BROKEN UP. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD END THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 030318
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
918 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LXN-LBF-OGA LINE...STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND SPREADING
EAST TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. IN THE NORTH...SNOW IS THE
MOST LIKELY FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ONL-MHN-AIA LINE AND FREEZING
RAIN LIKELY FROM ONL-MHN-AIA TO BBW-OGA.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL 06Z. WIND WILL SHIFT
TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE NORTH AROUND 10Z AND
THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER STAGE AT LEWELLEN HAD DECREASED TO 7.6 FEET
AT 8 PM MST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ICE JAM AT LEWELLEN HAD
BROKEN. ARCTIC AIR COMING INTO NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COLDER AIR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ICE JAMS TO FORM
AGAIN. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WARNING IN FORCE UNTIL
THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THE JAM IS BROKEN UP. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD END THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 022353
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LXN-LBF-OGA LINE...STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND SPREADING
EAST TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. IN THE NORTH...SNOW IS THE
MOST LIKELY FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ONL-MHN-AIA LINE AND FREEZING
RAIN LIKELY FROM ONL-MHN-AIA TO BBW-OGA.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL 06Z. WIND WILL SHIFT
TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE NORTH AROUND 10Z AND
THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 022353
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LXN-LBF-OGA LINE...STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND SPREADING
EAST TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. IN THE NORTH...SNOW IS THE
MOST LIKELY FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ONL-MHN-AIA LINE AND FREEZING
RAIN LIKELY FROM ONL-MHN-AIA TO BBW-OGA.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL 06Z. WIND WILL SHIFT
TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE NORTH AROUND 10Z AND
THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 022353
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LXN-LBF-OGA LINE...STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BY 06Z AND SPREADING
EAST TO THE REST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. IN THE NORTH...SNOW IS THE
MOST LIKELY FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF AN ONL-MHN-AIA LINE AND FREEZING
RAIN LIKELY FROM ONL-MHN-AIA TO BBW-OGA.

WIND WILL BE 180-210 AT 15-20G23-29KT UNTIL 06Z. WIND WILL SHIFT
TO 330-360 AT 15-25G30-36KT BEGINNING IN THE NORTH AROUND 10Z AND
THE REST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA BEGINNING 14Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 022202
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIKELY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REDUCE VISBY FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...AND THE KVTN TERMINAL. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 022202
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIKELY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REDUCE VISBY FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...AND THE KVTN TERMINAL. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 022202
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
A CENTER OVER THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY TO THE OHIO RVR VALLEY. A COLD
FRONT IS QUICKLY DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HAVING JUST
PUSHED INTO MT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE STRONG HIGH TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 45 MPH. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR SRN CAL...WITH A SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR
AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WARM MOIST SURGE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN INCREASING STRATUS
AND A WARM /ABOVE FREEZING/ LAYER NEAR 800 MB. MEANWHILE WE HAVE THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. THE WARM TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
NEB. LIFT IS MARGINAL...HOWEVER ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 775-825MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS WILL DELAY COOLING SO
INITIALLY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...HOWEVER AS TEMPS FALL TO
AND BELOW FREEZING A CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. COULD ALSO SEE A TOTAL FREEZING OF THE DROPS
INTO SLEET. THIS WARM LAYER WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES. LIFT IS BETTER WITH THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEB. ONCE THE
FRONT ARRIVES TEMPS QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECT A CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. WILL ALSO SEE AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 STILL LOOK GOOD ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND COULD MAYBE SEE AROUND 4 INCHES IN NRN SHERIDAN
AIDED BY CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND OF THE PINE RIDGE AND WINTER WX ADV
CONTINUES. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FROM THE FREEZING
PRECIP...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AND GENERALLY TRACE TO VERY LIGHT
GLAZING AND WILL NOT EXTEND THE ADV FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...AND EVEN A GLAZE WILL CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK WAVE MAY CAUSE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH TEMPS LIKELY
NOT TO WARM MUCH...IF AT ALL. CLOUDS CONTINUE AND COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MODELS HAVE MADE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR WITH
NEAR TERM SYSTEM AND THIS CARRIES INTO MID TERM SOLUTIONS. LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS CARRY SOME TIMING AND TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. WILL
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR MID TERM SOLUTIONS. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOW AS A WAVE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO AS
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME ON THE OVER NIGHT LOWS WITH DIMINISHING COLD AIR MOVING IN
AND WINDS STAYING UP WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EVEN THOUGH
SKIES ARE CLEARING. COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHWEST WITH NEW
SNOW COVER. TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 BELOW NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY.
COOL RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW CAA. MAY
NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER NORTH AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH
CRITERIA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WARMING AFTER WEDNESDAY AS WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AIR WITH WARMER PACIFIC AIR. MODELS
DIFFERING WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY SUNDAY TIME PERIOD
BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A WARMER SOLUTION WITH UPWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIKELY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REDUCE VISBY FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...AND THE KVTN TERMINAL. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 021820
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM WRN AND NCTRL
CO INTO FAR SERN WY AND THE SW PNHDL OF NEBR. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM 29 AT IML TO 17 AT ONL AND ANW. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR
AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -2C AT IML AND -5C AT ONL.
MIXING DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AND
REACH 20 TO 30 MPH NCTRL AND 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SRN WY AND WRN CO BY 06Z TUESDAY AND
ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN BY 12Z. A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN WY INTO FAR NRN NEBR AND SRN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. PRECEDING THIS UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC
BAND...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ON THE 280K SFC ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 83. THIS WILL LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH
WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
03Z TO 09Z. WHILE QPFS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...THIS COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA BY 06Z TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS
AND QPFS. CORRESPONDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FCST
ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA AND BOYD
COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY...THESE
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 06Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTY TO AROUND
25 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WEST OF AN OSHKOSH THROUGH VALENTINE LINE TOWARD 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK HITTER.  THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND APPEARS DRY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ARRIVES ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AID IN FORCING A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MID RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN AT ODDS ON THE TIMING OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SANDHILLS BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING.  STRONG CAA IS SHOWN TO FILL BEHIND THE PASSING
BOUNDARY...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
READINGS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS.  WITH THE STRONG WIND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SANDHILLS AND
POINT NORTH. THE STRONG WIND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.  THE GENERAL
TREND OF THE FORECAST IS NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
THE MODELS STILL POINT TO AN AREA OF UPGLIDE TARGETING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH 18Z OR SO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES SPREADS EAST.  THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 150KT
ULJ EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE PASSING JET WOULD HELP PROMOTE
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL 15Z OR
SO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
BANDING BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRONTOLYTIC IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
GREATER FOCUS SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND 12Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO EXPECTED.  FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE
MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS HERE WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY END LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST...WILL EXPIRE OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT 18Z.  NOTE HOWEVER THAT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITY LOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THIS
AREA...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY ATOP THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.  HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND AIDING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIKELY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REDUCE VISBY FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...AND THE KVTN TERMINAL. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THE STAGE AT 07Z WAS AT 8.08
FEET WHICH IS ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 AT LEWELLEN TODAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY
AT LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN
BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING
INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 021820
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM WRN AND NCTRL
CO INTO FAR SERN WY AND THE SW PNHDL OF NEBR. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM 29 AT IML TO 17 AT ONL AND ANW. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR
AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -2C AT IML AND -5C AT ONL.
MIXING DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AND
REACH 20 TO 30 MPH NCTRL AND 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SRN WY AND WRN CO BY 06Z TUESDAY AND
ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN BY 12Z. A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN WY INTO FAR NRN NEBR AND SRN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. PRECEDING THIS UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC
BAND...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ON THE 280K SFC ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 83. THIS WILL LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH
WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
03Z TO 09Z. WHILE QPFS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...THIS COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA BY 06Z TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS
AND QPFS. CORRESPONDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FCST
ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA AND BOYD
COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY...THESE
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 06Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTY TO AROUND
25 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WEST OF AN OSHKOSH THROUGH VALENTINE LINE TOWARD 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK HITTER.  THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND APPEARS DRY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ARRIVES ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AID IN FORCING A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MID RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN AT ODDS ON THE TIMING OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SANDHILLS BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING.  STRONG CAA IS SHOWN TO FILL BEHIND THE PASSING
BOUNDARY...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
READINGS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS.  WITH THE STRONG WIND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SANDHILLS AND
POINT NORTH. THE STRONG WIND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.  THE GENERAL
TREND OF THE FORECAST IS NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
THE MODELS STILL POINT TO AN AREA OF UPGLIDE TARGETING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH 18Z OR SO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES SPREADS EAST.  THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 150KT
ULJ EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE PASSING JET WOULD HELP PROMOTE
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL 15Z OR
SO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
BANDING BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRONTOLYTIC IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
GREATER FOCUS SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND 12Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO EXPECTED.  FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE
MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS HERE WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY END LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST...WILL EXPIRE OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT 18Z.  NOTE HOWEVER THAT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITY LOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THIS
AREA...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY ATOP THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.  HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND AIDING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIKELY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REDUCE VISBY FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...AND THE KVTN TERMINAL. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THE STAGE AT 07Z WAS AT 8.08
FEET WHICH IS ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 AT LEWELLEN TODAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY
AT LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN
BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING
INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 021820
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM WRN AND NCTRL
CO INTO FAR SERN WY AND THE SW PNHDL OF NEBR. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM 29 AT IML TO 17 AT ONL AND ANW. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR
AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -2C AT IML AND -5C AT ONL.
MIXING DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AND
REACH 20 TO 30 MPH NCTRL AND 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SRN WY AND WRN CO BY 06Z TUESDAY AND
ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN BY 12Z. A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN WY INTO FAR NRN NEBR AND SRN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. PRECEDING THIS UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC
BAND...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ON THE 280K SFC ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 83. THIS WILL LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH
WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
03Z TO 09Z. WHILE QPFS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...THIS COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA BY 06Z TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS
AND QPFS. CORRESPONDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FCST
ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA AND BOYD
COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY...THESE
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 06Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTY TO AROUND
25 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WEST OF AN OSHKOSH THROUGH VALENTINE LINE TOWARD 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK HITTER.  THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND APPEARS DRY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ARRIVES ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AID IN FORCING A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MID RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN AT ODDS ON THE TIMING OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SANDHILLS BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING.  STRONG CAA IS SHOWN TO FILL BEHIND THE PASSING
BOUNDARY...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
READINGS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS.  WITH THE STRONG WIND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SANDHILLS AND
POINT NORTH. THE STRONG WIND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.  THE GENERAL
TREND OF THE FORECAST IS NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
THE MODELS STILL POINT TO AN AREA OF UPGLIDE TARGETING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH 18Z OR SO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES SPREADS EAST.  THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 150KT
ULJ EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE PASSING JET WOULD HELP PROMOTE
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL 15Z OR
SO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
BANDING BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRONTOLYTIC IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
GREATER FOCUS SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND 12Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO EXPECTED.  FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE
MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS HERE WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY END LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST...WILL EXPIRE OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT 18Z.  NOTE HOWEVER THAT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITY LOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THIS
AREA...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY ATOP THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.  HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND AIDING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIKELY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REDUCE VISBY FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...AND THE KVTN TERMINAL. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THE STAGE AT 07Z WAS AT 8.08
FEET WHICH IS ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 AT LEWELLEN TODAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY
AT LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN
BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING
INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 021820
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM WRN AND NCTRL
CO INTO FAR SERN WY AND THE SW PNHDL OF NEBR. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM 29 AT IML TO 17 AT ONL AND ANW. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR
AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -2C AT IML AND -5C AT ONL.
MIXING DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AND
REACH 20 TO 30 MPH NCTRL AND 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SRN WY AND WRN CO BY 06Z TUESDAY AND
ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN BY 12Z. A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN WY INTO FAR NRN NEBR AND SRN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. PRECEDING THIS UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC
BAND...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ON THE 280K SFC ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 83. THIS WILL LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH
WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
03Z TO 09Z. WHILE QPFS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...THIS COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA BY 06Z TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS
AND QPFS. CORRESPONDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FCST
ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA AND BOYD
COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY...THESE
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 06Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTY TO AROUND
25 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WEST OF AN OSHKOSH THROUGH VALENTINE LINE TOWARD 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK HITTER.  THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND APPEARS DRY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ARRIVES ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AID IN FORCING A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MID RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN AT ODDS ON THE TIMING OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SANDHILLS BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING.  STRONG CAA IS SHOWN TO FILL BEHIND THE PASSING
BOUNDARY...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
READINGS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS.  WITH THE STRONG WIND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SANDHILLS AND
POINT NORTH. THE STRONG WIND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.  THE GENERAL
TREND OF THE FORECAST IS NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
THE MODELS STILL POINT TO AN AREA OF UPGLIDE TARGETING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH 18Z OR SO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES SPREADS EAST.  THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 150KT
ULJ EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE PASSING JET WOULD HELP PROMOTE
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL 15Z OR
SO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
BANDING BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRONTOLYTIC IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
GREATER FOCUS SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND 12Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO EXPECTED.  FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE
MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS HERE WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY END LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST...WILL EXPIRE OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT 18Z.  NOTE HOWEVER THAT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITY LOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THIS
AREA...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY ATOP THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.  HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND AIDING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL LOWER THIS EVENING TO
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY LIKELY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL REDUCE VISBY FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEB...AND THE KVTN TERMINAL. SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECT TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THE STAGE AT 07Z WAS AT 8.08
FEET WHICH IS ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 AT LEWELLEN TODAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY
AT LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN
BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING
INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 021223
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM WRN AND NCTRL
CO INTO FAR SERN WY AND THE SW PNHDL OF NEBR. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM 29 AT IML TO 17 AT ONL AND ANW. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR
AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -2C AT IML AND -5C AT ONL.
MIXING DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AND
REACH 20 TO 30 MPH NCTRL AND 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SRN WY AND WRN CO BY 06Z TUESDAY AND
ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN BY 12Z. A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN WY INTO FAR NRN NEBR AND SRN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. PRECEDING THIS UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC
BAND...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ON THE 280K SFC ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 83. THIS WILL LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH
WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
03Z TO 09Z. WHILE QPFS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...THIS COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA BY 06Z TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS
AND QPFS. CORRESPONDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FCST
ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA AND BOYD
COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY...THESE
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 06Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTY TO AROUND
25 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WEST OF AN OSHKOSH THROUGH VALENTINE LINE TOWARD 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK HITTER.  THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND APPEARS DRY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ARRIVES ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AID IN FORCING A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MID RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN AT ODDS ON THE TIMING OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SANDHILLS BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING.  STRONG CAA IS SHOWN TO FILL BEHIND THE PASSING
BOUNDARY...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
READINGS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS.  WITH THE STRONG WIND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SANDHILLS AND
POINT NORTH. THE STRONG WIND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.  THE GENERAL
TREND OF THE FORECAST IS NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
THE MODELS STILL POINT TO AN AREA OF UPGLIDE TARGETING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH 18Z OR SO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES SPREADS EAST.  THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 150KT
ULJ EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE PASSING JET WOULD HELP PROMOTE
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL 15Z OR
SO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
BANDING BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRONTOLYTIC IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
GREATER FOCUS SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND 12Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO EXPECTED.  FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE
MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS HERE WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY END LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST...WILL EXPIRE OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT 18Z.  NOTE HOWEVER THAT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITY LOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THIS
AREA...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY ATOP THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.  HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND AIDING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A WINTER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO  WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT BRINGING IFR
CEILINGS AND A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 03Z AT KLBF AND
KVTN. AFTER 06Z...A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KVTN WITH
VSBYS FALLING AS LOW AS 3/4SM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THE STAGE AT 07Z WAS AT 8.08
FEET WHICH IS ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 AT LEWELLEN TODAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY
AT LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN
BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING
INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 021223
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM WRN AND NCTRL
CO INTO FAR SERN WY AND THE SW PNHDL OF NEBR. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM 29 AT IML TO 17 AT ONL AND ANW. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR
AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -2C AT IML AND -5C AT ONL.
MIXING DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AND
REACH 20 TO 30 MPH NCTRL AND 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SRN WY AND WRN CO BY 06Z TUESDAY AND
ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN BY 12Z. A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN WY INTO FAR NRN NEBR AND SRN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. PRECEDING THIS UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC
BAND...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ON THE 280K SFC ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 83. THIS WILL LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH
WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
03Z TO 09Z. WHILE QPFS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...THIS COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA BY 06Z TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS
AND QPFS. CORRESPONDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FCST
ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA AND BOYD
COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY...THESE
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 06Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTY TO AROUND
25 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WEST OF AN OSHKOSH THROUGH VALENTINE LINE TOWARD 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK HITTER.  THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND APPEARS DRY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ARRIVES ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AID IN FORCING A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MID RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN AT ODDS ON THE TIMING OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SANDHILLS BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING.  STRONG CAA IS SHOWN TO FILL BEHIND THE PASSING
BOUNDARY...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
READINGS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS.  WITH THE STRONG WIND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SANDHILLS AND
POINT NORTH. THE STRONG WIND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.  THE GENERAL
TREND OF THE FORECAST IS NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
THE MODELS STILL POINT TO AN AREA OF UPGLIDE TARGETING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH 18Z OR SO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES SPREADS EAST.  THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 150KT
ULJ EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE PASSING JET WOULD HELP PROMOTE
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL 15Z OR
SO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
BANDING BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRONTOLYTIC IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
GREATER FOCUS SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND 12Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO EXPECTED.  FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE
MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS HERE WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY END LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST...WILL EXPIRE OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT 18Z.  NOTE HOWEVER THAT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITY LOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THIS
AREA...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY ATOP THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.  HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND AIDING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A WINTER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO  WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT BRINGING IFR
CEILINGS AND A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 03Z AT KLBF AND
KVTN. AFTER 06Z...A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KVTN WITH
VSBYS FALLING AS LOW AS 3/4SM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THE STAGE AT 07Z WAS AT 8.08
FEET WHICH IS ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 AT LEWELLEN TODAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY
AT LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN
BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING
INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 020956
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM WRN AND NCTRL
CO INTO FAR SERN WY AND THE SW PNHDL OF NEBR. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM 29 AT IML TO 17 AT ONL AND ANW. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR
AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -2C AT IML AND -5C AT ONL.
MIXING DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AND
REACH 20 TO 30 MPH NCTRL AND 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SRN WY AND WRN CO BY 06Z TUESDAY AND
ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN BY 12Z. A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN WY INTO FAR NRN NEBR AND SRN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. PRECEDING THIS UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC
BAND...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ON THE 280K SFC ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 83. THIS WILL LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH
WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
03Z TO 09Z. WHILE QPFS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...THIS COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA BY 06Z TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS
AND QPFS. CORRESPONDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FCST
ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA AND BOYD
COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY...THESE
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 06Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTY TO AROUND
25 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WEST OF AN OSHKOSH THROUGH VALENTINE LINE TOWARD 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK HITTER.  THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND APPEARS DRY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ARRIVES ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AID IN FORCING A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MID RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN AT ODDS ON THE TIMING OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SANDHILLS BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING.  STRONG CAA IS SHOWN TO FILL BEHIND THE PASSING
BOUNDARY...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
READINGS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS.  WITH THE STRONG WIND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SANDHILLS AND
POINT NORTH. THE STRONG WIND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.  THE GENERAL
TREND OF THE FORECAST IS NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
THE MODELS STILL POINT TO AN AREA OF UPGLIDE TARGETING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH 18Z OR SO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES SPREADS EAST.  THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 150KT
ULJ EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE PASSING JET WOULD HELP PROMOTE
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL 15Z OR
SO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
BANDING BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRONTOLYTIC IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
GREATER FOCUS SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND 12Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO EXPECTED.  FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE
MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS HERE WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY END LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST...WILL EXPIRE OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT 18Z.  NOTE HOWEVER THAT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITY LOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THIS
AREA...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY ATOP THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.  HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND AIDING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 6000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT THEY WILL BE LOCALIZED WITH VISIBILITY
ABOVE 5SM.

WIND IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 12KT UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY WITH DIRECTION COMING AROUND TO 130-160. AFTER 16Z...WIND
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 160-190 AT 15-20G25-30KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THE STAGE AT 07Z WAS AT 8.08
FEET WHICH IS ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 AT LEWELLEN TODAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY
AT LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN
BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING
INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 020456
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1056 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 6000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT THEY WILL BE LOCALIZED WITH VISIBILITY
ABOVE 5SM.

WIND IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 12KT UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY WITH DIRECTION COMING AROUND TO 130-160. AFTER 16Z...WIND
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 160-190 AT 15-20G25-30KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...THE STAGE AT LEWELLEN ROSE TO 8.0
FEET...BUT IT HAS STABILIZED. THE CAUSE OF THIS RISE IS NOT
CLEAR...BUT IT COULD HAVE RESULTED FROM THE BREAKUP OF ANOTHER
JAM IN A TRIBUTARY OR UPSTREAM OF THE JAM WHICH WOULD RELEASE MORE
WATER INTO THE RIVER. IT WAS NOT DUE TO ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...IF THERE ARE ANY OTHER JAMS UPSTREAM OR ON
TRIBUTARIES...A BREAKUP OF A JAM COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES AT
THE LEWELLEN GAGE. WITHOUT SUCH A SCENARIO... ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
NOT LIKELY. WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF A
BREAKUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 020456
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1056 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 6000 FEET IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT THEY WILL BE LOCALIZED WITH VISIBILITY
ABOVE 5SM.

WIND IS LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 12KT UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY WITH DIRECTION COMING AROUND TO 130-160. AFTER 16Z...WIND
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 160-190 AT 15-20G25-30KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...THE STAGE AT LEWELLEN ROSE TO 8.0
FEET...BUT IT HAS STABILIZED. THE CAUSE OF THIS RISE IS NOT
CLEAR...BUT IT COULD HAVE RESULTED FROM THE BREAKUP OF ANOTHER
JAM IN A TRIBUTARY OR UPSTREAM OF THE JAM WHICH WOULD RELEASE MORE
WATER INTO THE RIVER. IT WAS NOT DUE TO ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...IF THERE ARE ANY OTHER JAMS UPSTREAM OR ON
TRIBUTARIES...A BREAKUP OF A JAM COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES AT
THE LEWELLEN GAGE. WITHOUT SUCH A SCENARIO... ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
NOT LIKELY. WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF A
BREAKUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 020302
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
902 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UNLIMITED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT
08-10Z...CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10KT FROM 140-160 AND INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING (15-17Z) TO 17-20G27-30KT FROM 170-190.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...THE STAGE AT LEWELLEN ROSE TO 8.0
FEET...BUT IT HAS STABILIZED. THE CAUSE OF THIS RISE IS NOT
CLEAR...BUT IT COULD HAVE RESULTED FROM THE BREAKUP OF ANOTHER
JAM IN A TRIBUTARY OR UPSTREAM OF THE JAM WHICH WOULD RELEASE MORE
WATER INTO THE RIVER. IT WAS NOT DUE TO ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...IF THERE ARE ANY OTHER JAMS UPSTREAM OR ON
TRIBUTARIES...A BREAKUP OF A JAM COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES AT
THE LEWELLEN GAGE. WITHOUT SUCH A SCENARIO... ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
NOT LIKELY. WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF A
BREAKUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 020302
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
902 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UNLIMITED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT
08-10Z...CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10KT FROM 140-160 AND INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING (15-17Z) TO 17-20G27-30KT FROM 170-190.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...THE STAGE AT LEWELLEN ROSE TO 8.0
FEET...BUT IT HAS STABILIZED. THE CAUSE OF THIS RISE IS NOT
CLEAR...BUT IT COULD HAVE RESULTED FROM THE BREAKUP OF ANOTHER
JAM IN A TRIBUTARY OR UPSTREAM OF THE JAM WHICH WOULD RELEASE MORE
WATER INTO THE RIVER. IT WAS NOT DUE TO ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...IF THERE ARE ANY OTHER JAMS UPSTREAM OR ON
TRIBUTARIES...A BREAKUP OF A JAM COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES AT
THE LEWELLEN GAGE. WITHOUT SUCH A SCENARIO... ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
NOT LIKELY. WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF A
BREAKUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 020302
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
902 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UNLIMITED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT
08-10Z...CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10KT FROM 140-160 AND INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING (15-17Z) TO 17-20G27-30KT FROM 170-190.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...THE STAGE AT LEWELLEN ROSE TO 8.0
FEET...BUT IT HAS STABILIZED. THE CAUSE OF THIS RISE IS NOT
CLEAR...BUT IT COULD HAVE RESULTED FROM THE BREAKUP OF ANOTHER
JAM IN A TRIBUTARY OR UPSTREAM OF THE JAM WHICH WOULD RELEASE MORE
WATER INTO THE RIVER. IT WAS NOT DUE TO ANY PRECIPITATION. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...IF THERE ARE ANY OTHER JAMS UPSTREAM OR ON
TRIBUTARIES...A BREAKUP OF A JAM COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES AT
THE LEWELLEN GAGE. WITHOUT SUCH A SCENARIO... ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
NOT LIKELY. WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF A
BREAKUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 012315
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
515 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UNLIMITED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT
08-10Z...CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10KT FROM 140-160 AND INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING (15-17Z) TO 17-20G27-30KT FROM 170-190.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER GAUGE NEAR LEWELLEN WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP RESULTING IN ICE JAMMING.
WHILE THE SUN SHINES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. ONE
MORE REAL GOOD COLD SNAP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THEN
TEMPS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND. WHILE NO PROBLEMS ANYWHERE
ELSE...UNTIL AFTER THIS NEXT COLD WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ICE JAMS. WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE ICE JAM
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THIS WARM SPELL. DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE
NATURE OF ICE JAMMING...FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 012315
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
515 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UNLIMITED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT
08-10Z...CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10KT FROM 140-160 AND INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING (15-17Z) TO 17-20G27-30KT FROM 170-190.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER GAUGE NEAR LEWELLEN WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP RESULTING IN ICE JAMMING.
WHILE THE SUN SHINES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. ONE
MORE REAL GOOD COLD SNAP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THEN
TEMPS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND. WHILE NO PROBLEMS ANYWHERE
ELSE...UNTIL AFTER THIS NEXT COLD WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ICE JAMS. WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE ICE JAM
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THIS WARM SPELL. DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE
NATURE OF ICE JAMMING...FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 012315
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
515 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UNLIMITED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT
08-10Z...CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10KT FROM 140-160 AND INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING (15-17Z) TO 17-20G27-30KT FROM 170-190.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER GAUGE NEAR LEWELLEN WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP RESULTING IN ICE JAMMING.
WHILE THE SUN SHINES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. ONE
MORE REAL GOOD COLD SNAP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THEN
TEMPS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND. WHILE NO PROBLEMS ANYWHERE
ELSE...UNTIL AFTER THIS NEXT COLD WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ICE JAMS. WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE ICE JAM
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THIS WARM SPELL. DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE
NATURE OF ICE JAMMING...FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 012315
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
515 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UNLIMITED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT
08-10Z...CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET AGL IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. WIND
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10KT FROM 140-160 AND INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING (15-17Z) TO 17-20G27-30KT FROM 170-190.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER GAUGE NEAR LEWELLEN WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP RESULTING IN ICE JAMMING.
WHILE THE SUN SHINES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. ONE
MORE REAL GOOD COLD SNAP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THEN
TEMPS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND. WHILE NO PROBLEMS ANYWHERE
ELSE...UNTIL AFTER THIS NEXT COLD WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ICE JAMS. WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE ICE JAM
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THIS WARM SPELL. DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE
NATURE OF ICE JAMMING...FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 012135
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
KLBF AFTER 02/10Z...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY CREATE MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISBY. WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHER CONCERN FOR KLBF AND
KVTN AS GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER GAUGE NEAR LEWELLEN WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP RESULTING IN ICE JAMMING.
WHILE THE SUN SHINES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. ONE
MORE REAL GOOD COLD SNAP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THEN
TEMPS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND. WHILE NO PROBLEMS ANYWHERE
ELSE...UNTIL AFTER THIS NEXT COLD WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ICE JAMS. WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE ICE JAM
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THIS WARM SPELL. DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE
NATURE OF ICE JAMMING...FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 012135
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
KLBF AFTER 02/10Z...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY CREATE MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISBY. WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHER CONCERN FOR KLBF AND
KVTN AS GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER GAUGE NEAR LEWELLEN WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP RESULTING IN ICE JAMMING.
WHILE THE SUN SHINES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. ONE
MORE REAL GOOD COLD SNAP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THEN
TEMPS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND. WHILE NO PROBLEMS ANYWHERE
ELSE...UNTIL AFTER THIS NEXT COLD WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ICE JAMS. WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE ICE JAM
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THIS WARM SPELL. DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE
NATURE OF ICE JAMMING...FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 012135
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
KLBF AFTER 02/10Z...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY CREATE MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISBY. WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHER CONCERN FOR KLBF AND
KVTN AS GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER GAUGE NEAR LEWELLEN WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP RESULTING IN ICE JAMMING.
WHILE THE SUN SHINES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. ONE
MORE REAL GOOD COLD SNAP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THEN
TEMPS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND. WHILE NO PROBLEMS ANYWHERE
ELSE...UNTIL AFTER THIS NEXT COLD WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ICE JAMS. WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE ICE JAM
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THIS WARM SPELL. DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE
NATURE OF ICE JAMMING...FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 012135
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERAL PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA/CAL/ADJACENT PACIFIC OCEAN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO
THE EAST. SUBTLE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL/SLIGHTLY SW FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST LOW DIGS TOWARDS SRN CAL.
THIS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 850 MB
TEMPS RISE OVER THE 18/24 HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING NEAR 0Z ACROSS
FAR SW NEB FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FLOW BECOME MORE SW OVERHEAD
WITH AN INCREASE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS INCREASE OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING STRATUS...SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE
SW LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. THE FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOWING
HIGH SATURATION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000M...AND LIFT IS MARGINAL
AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS AND MENTION LIGHT SNOW AS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE. BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WAVE WILL BE NE OF THE AREA HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW AND CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. S/SW WINDS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH. THIS WILL AID
IN MIXING THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND FAVORED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN MID TERM SOLUTIONS AND HAVE GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH WARMING TRENDS AND DRY
FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA. MONDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GOOD PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER NIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER
POPS OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. INDICATIONS THAT ARCTIC HIGH WILL
PUSH QUICKLY SOUTH. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HAVE USED A NON
DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THEN
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS NORTHWEST AND 20S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW ENDS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN KEEPS SNOW OVER THE EAST. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND AROUND ZERO
SOUTH. COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH AN
INCH OR LESS OVER THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND CHILLS IN
LATER FORECASTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLY
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
20S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MORNING COULD AGAIN SEE WIND CHILLS IN
ADVISORY CATEGORIES AS LOWS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST SOUTHWEST. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH
WITH SNOW COVER BUT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH.
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
KLBF AFTER 02/10Z...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY CREATE MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISBY. WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHER CONCERN FOR KLBF AND
KVTN AS GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER GAUGE NEAR LEWELLEN WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
YESTERDAY...THANKS TO THE RECENT COLD SNAP RESULTING IN ICE JAMMING.
WHILE THE SUN SHINES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. ONE
MORE REAL GOOD COLD SNAP MID WEEK WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING THEN
TEMPS WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND. WHILE NO PROBLEMS ANYWHERE
ELSE...UNTIL AFTER THIS NEXT COLD WAVE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RIVERS FOR ICE JAMS. WITH HIGHS INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...THE ICE JAM
SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THIS WARM SPELL. DUE TO THE UNPREDICTABLE
NATURE OF ICE JAMMING...FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 011729
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...MIDWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PINE RIDGE REPORTING 3SM -SN OVC035...CEILINGS ACROSS
WRN NEBR ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AT 8K-10K FEET AGL...WITH FLURRIES
UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HOLDING FROM 15 TO 20 ABOVE BENEATH THE CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IMPACTING WESTERN NEBRASKA THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL LOOSE ITS TIGHT GRIP. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
MODERATE TO -4C AT IML AND -9C AT ONL. MIXING DOWN THESE
TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 35 AT ONL...36 AT IML AND BBW TO 32
AT GORDON. THESE HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND. IF FACT THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
AND WERE USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY..WITH THE NCTRL BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING...WITH SWRN NEBR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH NCTRL AND 5 TO
10 MPH SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA INTO SRN
CALIF. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF 125KT WINDS AT H3
WILL EXTEND FROM SRN CALIF...ACROSS UTAH...NRN CO...AND NEBRASKA.
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WAA AT H7 WILL ADVANCE
FROM ERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS
SUPPORTED ACROSS SWRN NEBR BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...00Z GEM AND 03Z SREF. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NCTRL TO THE UPPER TEEN TO NEAR 20 SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS
CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SW TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AMERICAN PRAIRIES...REACHING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE AT
ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THEREAFTER.  THE 01.00Z ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPRISE AT THIS POINT AS THE 00Z NAM IS ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.  REGARDLESS...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY MIDDAY.  DESPITE THE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE QPF FIELDS AS ALL
SEEM TO TARGET THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO BE SOLID AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF AND ARCS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY.  AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/S/...DPVA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WORK ON UPGLIDE TARGETING THE
285-300K SURFACES.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.  AS OF NOW...A
CONSENSUS OF QPF WOULD SUGGEST UPWARDS OF A TENTH TO POSSIBLY TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  IT IS IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO A PASSING 150KT ULJ WOULD
PROMOTE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES.  USING THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST QPF...WOULD ONE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS /NW NEB./   FOR NOW...WILL UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW CHANCES
IN THE HWO...BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SNOW CHANCES ARE LESS
CERTAIN...SO WILL PREDOMINATELY KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR LESS FOR
NOW.  ONE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.  THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES WILL BE STRONG...WITH H8 TEMPS SHOWN TO BE IN EXCESS OF
5C AT KLBF MONDAY EVENING.  THE NAM IS LEADING THE CHARGE WITH THE
ZR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER IT IS SUSPECT AS IT IS DEEMED TOO COLD AT THE
SURFACE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LL WAA AND MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP ABOVE
0C INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA.  SO
FOR NOW...NO ZR WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THESE AREAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD MID-WEEK...BUT THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RISING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
KLBF AFTER 02/10Z...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY CREATE MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISBY. WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHER CONCERN FOR KLBF AND
KVTN AS GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 07Z RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM CONTINUED ON THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WITH
THE STAGE REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A
COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS
AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR 35 AT LEWELLEN TODAY AND 40 FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY AT
LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR. SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN BREAKING UP
THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG











000
FXUS63 KLBF 011729
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...MIDWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PINE RIDGE REPORTING 3SM -SN OVC035...CEILINGS ACROSS
WRN NEBR ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AT 8K-10K FEET AGL...WITH FLURRIES
UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HOLDING FROM 15 TO 20 ABOVE BENEATH THE CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IMPACTING WESTERN NEBRASKA THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL LOOSE ITS TIGHT GRIP. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
MODERATE TO -4C AT IML AND -9C AT ONL. MIXING DOWN THESE
TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 35 AT ONL...36 AT IML AND BBW TO 32
AT GORDON. THESE HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND. IF FACT THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
AND WERE USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY..WITH THE NCTRL BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING...WITH SWRN NEBR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH NCTRL AND 5 TO
10 MPH SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA INTO SRN
CALIF. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF 125KT WINDS AT H3
WILL EXTEND FROM SRN CALIF...ACROSS UTAH...NRN CO...AND NEBRASKA.
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WAA AT H7 WILL ADVANCE
FROM ERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS
SUPPORTED ACROSS SWRN NEBR BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...00Z GEM AND 03Z SREF. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NCTRL TO THE UPPER TEEN TO NEAR 20 SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS
CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SW TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AMERICAN PRAIRIES...REACHING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE AT
ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THEREAFTER.  THE 01.00Z ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPRISE AT THIS POINT AS THE 00Z NAM IS ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.  REGARDLESS...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY MIDDAY.  DESPITE THE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE QPF FIELDS AS ALL
SEEM TO TARGET THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO BE SOLID AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF AND ARCS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY.  AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/S/...DPVA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WORK ON UPGLIDE TARGETING THE
285-300K SURFACES.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.  AS OF NOW...A
CONSENSUS OF QPF WOULD SUGGEST UPWARDS OF A TENTH TO POSSIBLY TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  IT IS IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO A PASSING 150KT ULJ WOULD
PROMOTE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES.  USING THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST QPF...WOULD ONE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS /NW NEB./   FOR NOW...WILL UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW CHANCES
IN THE HWO...BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SNOW CHANCES ARE LESS
CERTAIN...SO WILL PREDOMINATELY KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR LESS FOR
NOW.  ONE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.  THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES WILL BE STRONG...WITH H8 TEMPS SHOWN TO BE IN EXCESS OF
5C AT KLBF MONDAY EVENING.  THE NAM IS LEADING THE CHARGE WITH THE
ZR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER IT IS SUSPECT AS IT IS DEEMED TOO COLD AT THE
SURFACE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LL WAA AND MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP ABOVE
0C INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA.  SO
FOR NOW...NO ZR WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THESE AREAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD MID-WEEK...BUT THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RISING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
KLBF AFTER 02/10Z...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY CREATE MVFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISBY. WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHER CONCERN FOR KLBF AND
KVTN AS GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 07Z RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM CONTINUED ON THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WITH
THE STAGE REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A
COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS
AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR 35 AT LEWELLEN TODAY AND 40 FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY AT
LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR. SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN BREAKING UP
THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG










000
FXUS63 KLBF 011217
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
617 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...MIDWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PINE RIDGE REPORTING 3SM -SN OVC035...CEILINGS ACROSS
WRN NEBR ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AT 8K-10K FEET AGL...WITH FLURRIES
UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HOLDING FROM 15 TO 20 ABOVE BENEATH THE CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IMPACTING WESTERN NEBRASKA THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL LOOSE ITS TIGHT GRIP. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
MODERATE TO -4C AT IML AND -9C AT ONL. MIXING DOWN THESE
TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 35 AT ONL...36 AT IML AND BBW TO 32
AT GORDON. THESE HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND. IF FACT THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
AND WERE USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY..WITH THE NCTRL BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING...WITH SWRN NEBR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH NCTRL AND 5 TO
10 MPH SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA INTO SRN
CALIF. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF 125KT WINDS AT H3
WILL EXTEND FROM SRN CALIF...ACROSS UTAH...NRN CO...AND NEBRASKA.
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WAA AT H7 WILL ADVANCE
FROM ERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS
SUPPORTED ACROSS SWRN NEBR BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...00Z GEM AND 03Z SREF. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NCTRL TO THE UPPER TEEN TO NEAR 20 SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS
CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SW TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AMERICAN PRAIRIES...REACHING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE AT
ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THEREAFTER.  THE 01.00Z ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPRISE AT THIS POINT AS THE 00Z NAM IS ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.  REGARDLESS...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY MIDDAY.  DESPITE THE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE QPF FIELDS AS ALL
SEEM TO TARGET THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO BE SOLID AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF AND ARCS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY.  AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/S/...DPVA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WORK ON UPGLIDE TARGETING THE
285-300K SURFACES.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.  AS OF NOW...A
CONSENSUS OF QPF WOULD SUGGEST UPWARDS OF A TENTH TO POSSIBLY TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  IT IS IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO A PASSING 150KT ULJ WOULD
PROMOTE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES.  USING THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST QPF...WOULD ONE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS /NW NEB./   FOR NOW...WILL UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW CHANCES
IN THE HWO...BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SNOW CHANCES ARE LESS
CERTAIN...SO WILL PREDOMINATELY KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR LESS FOR
NOW.  ONE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.  THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES WILL BE STRONG...WITH H8 TEMPS SHOWN TO BE IN EXCESS OF
5C AT KLBF MONDAY EVENING.  THE NAM IS LEADING THE CHARGE WITH THE
ZR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER IT IS SUSPECT AS IT IS DEEMED TOO COLD AT THE
SURFACE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LL WAA AND MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP ABOVE
0C INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA.  SO
FOR NOW...NO ZR WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THESE AREAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD MID-WEEK...BUT THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RISING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 07Z RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM CONTINUED ON THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WITH
THE STAGE REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A
COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS
AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR 35 AT LEWELLEN TODAY AND 40 FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY AT
LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR. SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN BREAKING UP
THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 011217
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
617 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...MIDWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PINE RIDGE REPORTING 3SM -SN OVC035...CEILINGS ACROSS
WRN NEBR ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AT 8K-10K FEET AGL...WITH FLURRIES
UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HOLDING FROM 15 TO 20 ABOVE BENEATH THE CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IMPACTING WESTERN NEBRASKA THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL LOOSE ITS TIGHT GRIP. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
MODERATE TO -4C AT IML AND -9C AT ONL. MIXING DOWN THESE
TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 35 AT ONL...36 AT IML AND BBW TO 32
AT GORDON. THESE HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND. IF FACT THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
AND WERE USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY..WITH THE NCTRL BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING...WITH SWRN NEBR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH NCTRL AND 5 TO
10 MPH SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA INTO SRN
CALIF. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF 125KT WINDS AT H3
WILL EXTEND FROM SRN CALIF...ACROSS UTAH...NRN CO...AND NEBRASKA.
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WAA AT H7 WILL ADVANCE
FROM ERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS
SUPPORTED ACROSS SWRN NEBR BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...00Z GEM AND 03Z SREF. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NCTRL TO THE UPPER TEEN TO NEAR 20 SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS
CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SW TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AMERICAN PRAIRIES...REACHING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE AT
ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THEREAFTER.  THE 01.00Z ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPRISE AT THIS POINT AS THE 00Z NAM IS ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.  REGARDLESS...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY MIDDAY.  DESPITE THE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE QPF FIELDS AS ALL
SEEM TO TARGET THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO BE SOLID AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF AND ARCS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY.  AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/S/...DPVA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WORK ON UPGLIDE TARGETING THE
285-300K SURFACES.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.  AS OF NOW...A
CONSENSUS OF QPF WOULD SUGGEST UPWARDS OF A TENTH TO POSSIBLY TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  IT IS IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO A PASSING 150KT ULJ WOULD
PROMOTE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES.  USING THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST QPF...WOULD ONE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS /NW NEB./   FOR NOW...WILL UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW CHANCES
IN THE HWO...BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SNOW CHANCES ARE LESS
CERTAIN...SO WILL PREDOMINATELY KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR LESS FOR
NOW.  ONE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.  THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES WILL BE STRONG...WITH H8 TEMPS SHOWN TO BE IN EXCESS OF
5C AT KLBF MONDAY EVENING.  THE NAM IS LEADING THE CHARGE WITH THE
ZR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER IT IS SUSPECT AS IT IS DEEMED TOO COLD AT THE
SURFACE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LL WAA AND MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP ABOVE
0C INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA.  SO
FOR NOW...NO ZR WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THESE AREAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD MID-WEEK...BUT THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RISING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 07Z RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM CONTINUED ON THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WITH
THE STAGE REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A
COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS
AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR 35 AT LEWELLEN TODAY AND 40 FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY AT
LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR. SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN BREAKING UP
THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG










000
FXUS63 KLBF 011217
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
617 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...MIDWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PINE RIDGE REPORTING 3SM -SN OVC035...CEILINGS ACROSS
WRN NEBR ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AT 8K-10K FEET AGL...WITH FLURRIES
UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HOLDING FROM 15 TO 20 ABOVE BENEATH THE CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IMPACTING WESTERN NEBRASKA THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL LOOSE ITS TIGHT GRIP. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
MODERATE TO -4C AT IML AND -9C AT ONL. MIXING DOWN THESE
TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 35 AT ONL...36 AT IML AND BBW TO 32
AT GORDON. THESE HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND. IF FACT THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
AND WERE USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY..WITH THE NCTRL BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING...WITH SWRN NEBR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH NCTRL AND 5 TO
10 MPH SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA INTO SRN
CALIF. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF 125KT WINDS AT H3
WILL EXTEND FROM SRN CALIF...ACROSS UTAH...NRN CO...AND NEBRASKA.
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WAA AT H7 WILL ADVANCE
FROM ERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS
SUPPORTED ACROSS SWRN NEBR BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...00Z GEM AND 03Z SREF. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NCTRL TO THE UPPER TEEN TO NEAR 20 SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS
CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SW TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AMERICAN PRAIRIES...REACHING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE AT
ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THEREAFTER.  THE 01.00Z ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPRISE AT THIS POINT AS THE 00Z NAM IS ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.  REGARDLESS...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY MIDDAY.  DESPITE THE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE QPF FIELDS AS ALL
SEEM TO TARGET THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO BE SOLID AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF AND ARCS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY.  AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/S/...DPVA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WORK ON UPGLIDE TARGETING THE
285-300K SURFACES.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.  AS OF NOW...A
CONSENSUS OF QPF WOULD SUGGEST UPWARDS OF A TENTH TO POSSIBLY TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  IT IS IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO A PASSING 150KT ULJ WOULD
PROMOTE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES.  USING THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST QPF...WOULD ONE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS /NW NEB./   FOR NOW...WILL UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW CHANCES
IN THE HWO...BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SNOW CHANCES ARE LESS
CERTAIN...SO WILL PREDOMINATELY KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR LESS FOR
NOW.  ONE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.  THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES WILL BE STRONG...WITH H8 TEMPS SHOWN TO BE IN EXCESS OF
5C AT KLBF MONDAY EVENING.  THE NAM IS LEADING THE CHARGE WITH THE
ZR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER IT IS SUSPECT AS IT IS DEEMED TOO COLD AT THE
SURFACE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LL WAA AND MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP ABOVE
0C INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA.  SO
FOR NOW...NO ZR WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THESE AREAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD MID-WEEK...BUT THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RISING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 07Z RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM CONTINUED ON THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WITH
THE STAGE REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A
COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS
AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR 35 AT LEWELLEN TODAY AND 40 FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY AT
LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR. SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN BREAKING UP
THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 011217
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
617 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...MIDWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PINE RIDGE REPORTING 3SM -SN OVC035...CEILINGS ACROSS
WRN NEBR ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AT 8K-10K FEET AGL...WITH FLURRIES
UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HOLDING FROM 15 TO 20 ABOVE BENEATH THE CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IMPACTING WESTERN NEBRASKA THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL LOOSE ITS TIGHT GRIP. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
MODERATE TO -4C AT IML AND -9C AT ONL. MIXING DOWN THESE
TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 35 AT ONL...36 AT IML AND BBW TO 32
AT GORDON. THESE HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND. IF FACT THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
AND WERE USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY..WITH THE NCTRL BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING...WITH SWRN NEBR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH NCTRL AND 5 TO
10 MPH SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA INTO SRN
CALIF. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF 125KT WINDS AT H3
WILL EXTEND FROM SRN CALIF...ACROSS UTAH...NRN CO...AND NEBRASKA.
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WAA AT H7 WILL ADVANCE
FROM ERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS
SUPPORTED ACROSS SWRN NEBR BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...00Z GEM AND 03Z SREF. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NCTRL TO THE UPPER TEEN TO NEAR 20 SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS
CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SW TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AMERICAN PRAIRIES...REACHING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE AT
ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THEREAFTER.  THE 01.00Z ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPRISE AT THIS POINT AS THE 00Z NAM IS ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.  REGARDLESS...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY MIDDAY.  DESPITE THE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE QPF FIELDS AS ALL
SEEM TO TARGET THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO BE SOLID AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF AND ARCS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY.  AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/S/...DPVA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WORK ON UPGLIDE TARGETING THE
285-300K SURFACES.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.  AS OF NOW...A
CONSENSUS OF QPF WOULD SUGGEST UPWARDS OF A TENTH TO POSSIBLY TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  IT IS IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO A PASSING 150KT ULJ WOULD
PROMOTE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES.  USING THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST QPF...WOULD ONE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS /NW NEB./   FOR NOW...WILL UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW CHANCES
IN THE HWO...BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SNOW CHANCES ARE LESS
CERTAIN...SO WILL PREDOMINATELY KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR LESS FOR
NOW.  ONE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.  THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES WILL BE STRONG...WITH H8 TEMPS SHOWN TO BE IN EXCESS OF
5C AT KLBF MONDAY EVENING.  THE NAM IS LEADING THE CHARGE WITH THE
ZR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER IT IS SUSPECT AS IT IS DEEMED TOO COLD AT THE
SURFACE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LL WAA AND MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP ABOVE
0C INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA.  SO
FOR NOW...NO ZR WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THESE AREAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD MID-WEEK...BUT THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RISING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 07Z RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM CONTINUED ON THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WITH
THE STAGE REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A
COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS
AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR 35 AT LEWELLEN TODAY AND 40 FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY AT
LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR. SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN BREAKING UP
THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG










000
FXUS63 KLBF 010947
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...MIDWEST...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PINE RIDGE REPORTING 3SM -SN OVC035...CEILINGS ACROSS
WRN NEBR ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AT 8K-10K FEET AGL...WITH FLURRIES
UNLIKELY.

TEMPERATURES HOLDING FROM 15 TO 20 ABOVE BENEATH THE CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR TODAY...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IMPACTING WESTERN NEBRASKA THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL LOOSE ITS TIGHT GRIP. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL
MODERATE TO -4C AT IML AND -9C AT ONL. MIXING DOWN THESE
TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 35 AT ONL...36 AT IML AND BBW TO 32
AT GORDON. THESE HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND. IF FACT THE LATEST RAP13 AND HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
AND WERE USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECAST HIGHS. EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY..WITH THE NCTRL BECOMING MOSTLY
SUNNY BY LATE MORNING...WITH SWRN NEBR BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 15 MPH NCTRL AND 5 TO
10 MPH SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA INTO SRN
CALIF. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF 125KT WINDS AT H3
WILL EXTEND FROM SRN CALIF...ACROSS UTAH...NRN CO...AND NEBRASKA.
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WAA AT H7 WILL ADVANCE
FROM ERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS
SUPPORTED ACROSS SWRN NEBR BY THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z
NAM...00Z GEM AND 03Z SREF. LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS NCTRL TO THE UPPER TEEN TO NEAR 20 SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS
CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SW TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFIES...A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND ADJACENT AMERICAN PRAIRIES...REACHING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE AT
ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THEREAFTER.  THE 01.00Z ECMWF
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPRISE AT THIS POINT AS THE 00Z NAM IS ON THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE.  REGARDLESS...THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR EARLY
HIGHS TUESDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A
NON-DIURNAL TREND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT
SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY MIDDAY.  DESPITE THE TIMING ISSUES WITH
THE FRONT...THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE QPF FIELDS AS ALL
SEEM TO TARGET THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS SHOWN TO BE SOLID AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE GULF AND ARCS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY.  AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/S/...DPVA
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WORK ON UPGLIDE TARGETING THE
285-300K SURFACES.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED.  AS OF NOW...A
CONSENSUS OF QPF WOULD SUGGEST UPWARDS OF A TENTH TO POSSIBLY TWO
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.  IT IS IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO A PASSING 150KT ULJ WOULD
PROMOTE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW RATES.  USING THE
HIGHER END OF THE FORECAST QPF...WOULD ONE EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OCCURS /NW NEB./   FOR NOW...WILL UP
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW CHANCES
IN THE HWO...BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES.  FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SNOW CHANCES ARE LESS
CERTAIN...SO WILL PREDOMINATELY KEEP POPS AT CHANCE OR LESS FOR
NOW.  ONE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN.  THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVES WILL BE STRONG...WITH H8 TEMPS SHOWN TO BE IN EXCESS OF
5C AT KLBF MONDAY EVENING.  THE NAM IS LEADING THE CHARGE WITH THE
ZR POTENTIAL...HOWEVER IT IS SUSPECT AS IT IS DEEMED TOO COLD AT THE
SURFACE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LL WAA AND MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP ABOVE
0C INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA.  SO
FOR NOW...NO ZR WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  WILL GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW IN THESE AREAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING...THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD MID-WEEK...BUT THE LONG RANGE
SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE THAT A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  RISING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS THEY COME
ACROSS...CEILINGS OF 2000-3000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY AT OR
ABOVE 5SM ARE LIKELY...THOUGH VERY LOCALIZED.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 07Z RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM CONTINUED ON THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY WITH
THE STAGE REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A
COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS
AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NEAR 35 AT LEWELLEN TODAY AND 40 FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY AT
LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR. SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN BREAKING UP
THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 010511
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS THEY COME
ACROSS...CEILINGS OF 2000-3000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY AT OR
ABOVE 5SM ARE LIKELY...THOUGH VERY LOCALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EVENING RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM ON THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY PUSHING THE STAGE ABOVE
THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF
THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 40 MONDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST FROIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT COULD
AID IN BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. OTHER ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 010511
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS THEY COME
ACROSS...CEILINGS OF 2000-3000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY AT OR
ABOVE 5SM ARE LIKELY...THOUGH VERY LOCALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EVENING RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM ON THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY PUSHING THE STAGE ABOVE
THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF
THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 40 MONDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST FROIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT COULD
AID IN BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. OTHER ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 010511
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS THEY COME
ACROSS...CEILINGS OF 2000-3000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY AT OR
ABOVE 5SM ARE LIKELY...THOUGH VERY LOCALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EVENING RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM ON THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY PUSHING THE STAGE ABOVE
THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF
THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 40 MONDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST FROIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT COULD
AID IN BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. OTHER ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282328
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
528 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CLOUDS COMING INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL
BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE
2000-3000 FEET AGL WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY WITH
THE SHOWERS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 5SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282328
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
528 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CLOUDS COMING INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL
BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE
2000-3000 FEET AGL WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY WITH
THE SHOWERS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 5SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282328
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
528 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CLOUDS COMING INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL
BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE
2000-3000 FEET AGL WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY WITH
THE SHOWERS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 5SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282328
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
528 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CLOUDS COMING INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT WILL
BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE
2000-3000 FEET AGL WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITY WITH
THE SHOWERS IS NOT LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 5SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282133
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING
KLBF...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FAR SW MAY LINGER CLOSE TO BKN025. GENERALLY
VFR THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWERING/REDEVELOPING STRATUS TOWARDS
MORNING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH 18Z SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF KVTN...HOWEVER KLBF COULD SEE SOME SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282133
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING
KLBF...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FAR SW MAY LINGER CLOSE TO BKN025. GENERALLY
VFR THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWERING/REDEVELOPING STRATUS TOWARDS
MORNING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH 18Z SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF KVTN...HOWEVER KLBF COULD SEE SOME SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281752
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1152 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S AND WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALSO EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

STRATUS EXTENDS FROM ALL OF SWRN NEBR NARROWING NORTHWARD INTO VTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT REPORTED BY ANY ASOS OR AWOS...FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN AREAS OF THE STRATUS AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE NORTH PLATTE
WFO THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 15 ABOVE
BENEATH THE STRATUS TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN AREAS OF CLEAR
SKIES. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO HOLD A GRIP ON THE
PLAINS...MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THESE ENTIRE REGIONS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY...THIS AIRMASS AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -9C TO -11C. MIXING
DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 30 AT VTN...ANW AND ONL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA. THESE HIGHS
NEAR A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NCTRL TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTH TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A DISTURBANCE
LOCATED IN ERN AND SERN CO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS AND SWRN
NEBR BY 18Z TODAY. THIS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR 20 TO 30 POPS
MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INTO EARLY
AFTN ACROSS SERN ZONES. ALSO THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS FROM SWRN
NEBR INTO THE CNTRL SANDHILLS ATTM HAS CONTAINED A FEW FLURRIES. SO
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE LOW POP AREAS
IN SWRN NEBR.

FOR TONIGHT...WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY SPLIT
FLOW. SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS CALIF
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO BRING A LEAD DISTURBANCE LOCATED
FROM SWRN CO/NCTRL NEW MEXICO EAST NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS/FAR
SOUTHERN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL
SHUNT H7-H5 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS EAST OF OUR FA...THUS
LIMITING POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA. ANY
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF /A FEW HOURS OR LESS/ AT ANY LOCATION
WITH ONLY UP TO A LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR.
LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS GOING IN THE EXTENDED
REMAIN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  SPLIT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST/GREAT
BASIN.  AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY...A
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME WEAK UPGLIDE IN THE
290-300K SURFACE IS SHOWN WITH COND PRES DEFS APPROACHING 10MB OR
LESS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FIRST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FOCUS SPREADING
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  QPF
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THAT.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY.  HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN
THE 30S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S MONDAY MORNING.
NOTE THAT FORECAST LOWS WERE INCREASED TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED IN THESE AREAS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TEENS
FORECAST FOR LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR AND
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND.  IN ADDITION...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  DEEP UPGLIDE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL LIFT
WILL COMBINE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCE BY THE
ARCTIC INVASION...WITH HIGHS AND LOW FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO.  BEYOND MID-WEEK...A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HELP AID
TEMPERATURE IN RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING
KLBF...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FAR SW MAY LINGER CLOSE TO BKN025. GENERALLY
VFR THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWERING/REDEVELOPING STRATUS TOWARDS
MORNING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH 18Z SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF KVTN...HOWEVER KLBF COULD SEE SOME SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KLBF 281752
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1152 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S AND WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALSO EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

STRATUS EXTENDS FROM ALL OF SWRN NEBR NARROWING NORTHWARD INTO VTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT REPORTED BY ANY ASOS OR AWOS...FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN AREAS OF THE STRATUS AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE NORTH PLATTE
WFO THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 15 ABOVE
BENEATH THE STRATUS TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN AREAS OF CLEAR
SKIES. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO HOLD A GRIP ON THE
PLAINS...MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THESE ENTIRE REGIONS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY...THIS AIRMASS AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -9C TO -11C. MIXING
DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 30 AT VTN...ANW AND ONL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA. THESE HIGHS
NEAR A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NCTRL TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTH TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A DISTURBANCE
LOCATED IN ERN AND SERN CO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS AND SWRN
NEBR BY 18Z TODAY. THIS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR 20 TO 30 POPS
MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INTO EARLY
AFTN ACROSS SERN ZONES. ALSO THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS FROM SWRN
NEBR INTO THE CNTRL SANDHILLS ATTM HAS CONTAINED A FEW FLURRIES. SO
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE LOW POP AREAS
IN SWRN NEBR.

FOR TONIGHT...WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY SPLIT
FLOW. SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS CALIF
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO BRING A LEAD DISTURBANCE LOCATED
FROM SWRN CO/NCTRL NEW MEXICO EAST NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS/FAR
SOUTHERN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL
SHUNT H7-H5 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS EAST OF OUR FA...THUS
LIMITING POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA. ANY
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF /A FEW HOURS OR LESS/ AT ANY LOCATION
WITH ONLY UP TO A LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR.
LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS GOING IN THE EXTENDED
REMAIN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  SPLIT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST/GREAT
BASIN.  AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY...A
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME WEAK UPGLIDE IN THE
290-300K SURFACE IS SHOWN WITH COND PRES DEFS APPROACHING 10MB OR
LESS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FIRST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FOCUS SPREADING
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  QPF
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THAT.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY.  HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN
THE 30S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S MONDAY MORNING.
NOTE THAT FORECAST LOWS WERE INCREASED TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED IN THESE AREAS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TEENS
FORECAST FOR LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR AND
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND.  IN ADDITION...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  DEEP UPGLIDE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL LIFT
WILL COMBINE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCE BY THE
ARCTIC INVASION...WITH HIGHS AND LOW FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO.  BEYOND MID-WEEK...A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HELP AID
TEMPERATURE IN RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING
KLBF...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FAR SW MAY LINGER CLOSE TO BKN025. GENERALLY
VFR THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWERING/REDEVELOPING STRATUS TOWARDS
MORNING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH 18Z SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF KVTN...HOWEVER KLBF COULD SEE SOME SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281752
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1152 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S AND WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALSO EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

STRATUS EXTENDS FROM ALL OF SWRN NEBR NARROWING NORTHWARD INTO VTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT REPORTED BY ANY ASOS OR AWOS...FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN AREAS OF THE STRATUS AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE NORTH PLATTE
WFO THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 15 ABOVE
BENEATH THE STRATUS TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN AREAS OF CLEAR
SKIES. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO HOLD A GRIP ON THE
PLAINS...MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THESE ENTIRE REGIONS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY...THIS AIRMASS AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -9C TO -11C. MIXING
DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 30 AT VTN...ANW AND ONL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA. THESE HIGHS
NEAR A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NCTRL TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTH TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A DISTURBANCE
LOCATED IN ERN AND SERN CO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS AND SWRN
NEBR BY 18Z TODAY. THIS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR 20 TO 30 POPS
MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INTO EARLY
AFTN ACROSS SERN ZONES. ALSO THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS FROM SWRN
NEBR INTO THE CNTRL SANDHILLS ATTM HAS CONTAINED A FEW FLURRIES. SO
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE LOW POP AREAS
IN SWRN NEBR.

FOR TONIGHT...WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY SPLIT
FLOW. SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS CALIF
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO BRING A LEAD DISTURBANCE LOCATED
FROM SWRN CO/NCTRL NEW MEXICO EAST NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS/FAR
SOUTHERN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL
SHUNT H7-H5 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS EAST OF OUR FA...THUS
LIMITING POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA. ANY
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF /A FEW HOURS OR LESS/ AT ANY LOCATION
WITH ONLY UP TO A LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR.
LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS GOING IN THE EXTENDED
REMAIN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  SPLIT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST/GREAT
BASIN.  AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY...A
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME WEAK UPGLIDE IN THE
290-300K SURFACE IS SHOWN WITH COND PRES DEFS APPROACHING 10MB OR
LESS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FIRST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FOCUS SPREADING
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  QPF
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THAT.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY.  HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN
THE 30S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S MONDAY MORNING.
NOTE THAT FORECAST LOWS WERE INCREASED TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED IN THESE AREAS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TEENS
FORECAST FOR LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR AND
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND.  IN ADDITION...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  DEEP UPGLIDE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL LIFT
WILL COMBINE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCE BY THE
ARCTIC INVASION...WITH HIGHS AND LOW FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO.  BEYOND MID-WEEK...A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HELP AID
TEMPERATURE IN RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING
KLBF...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FAR SW MAY LINGER CLOSE TO BKN025. GENERALLY
VFR THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWERING/REDEVELOPING STRATUS TOWARDS
MORNING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH 18Z SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF KVTN...HOWEVER KLBF COULD SEE SOME SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KLBF 281752
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1152 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S AND WAS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALSO EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES.

STRATUS EXTENDS FROM ALL OF SWRN NEBR NARROWING NORTHWARD INTO VTN.
ALTHOUGH NOT REPORTED BY ANY ASOS OR AWOS...FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN AREAS OF THE STRATUS AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT THE NORTH PLATTE
WFO THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HOLDING AROUND 15 ABOVE
BENEATH THE STRATUS TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN AREAS OF CLEAR
SKIES. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 5-15 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EFFECTS OF COLD
AIRMASS ON TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO HOLD A GRIP ON THE
PLAINS...MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING ACROSS THESE ENTIRE REGIONS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY...THIS AIRMASS AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -9C TO -11C. MIXING
DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS NEAR 30 AT VTN...ANW AND ONL
TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA. THESE HIGHS
NEAR A 50/50 MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND. EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NCTRL TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTH TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. A DISTURBANCE
LOCATED IN ERN AND SERN CO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WRN KS AND SWRN
NEBR BY 18Z TODAY. THIS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR 20 TO 30 POPS
MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR THIS MORNING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE INTO EARLY
AFTN ACROSS SERN ZONES. ALSO THE CURRENT AREA OF STRATUS FROM SWRN
NEBR INTO THE CNTRL SANDHILLS ATTM HAS CONTAINED A FEW FLURRIES. SO
A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE LOW POP AREAS
IN SWRN NEBR.

FOR TONIGHT...WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY SPLIT
FLOW. SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS CALIF
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO BRING A LEAD DISTURBANCE LOCATED
FROM SWRN CO/NCTRL NEW MEXICO EAST NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS/FAR
SOUTHERN NEBR OVERNIGHT. A NRN STREAM TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST WILL
SHUNT H7-H5 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS EAST OF OUR FA...THUS
LIMITING POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF FA. ANY
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE BRIEF /A FEW HOURS OR LESS/ AT ANY LOCATION
WITH ONLY UP TO A LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SWRN NEBR.
LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS GOING IN THE EXTENDED
REMAIN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  SPLIT UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST/GREAT
BASIN.  AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY...A
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWN TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY ON MONDAY.  AT THIS TIME WEAK UPGLIDE IN THE
290-300K SURFACE IS SHOWN WITH COND PRES DEFS APPROACHING 10MB OR
LESS...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FIRST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FOCUS SPREADING
NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  QPF
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THAT.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
MODERATE SLIGHTLY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS ON MONDAY.  HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE IN
THE 30S...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S MONDAY MORNING.
NOTE THAT FORECAST LOWS WERE INCREASED TUESDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE DELAYED IN THESE AREAS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TEENS
FORECAST FOR LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST...LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR AND
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND.  IN ADDITION...IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  DEEP UPGLIDE AND STRONG MID-LEVEL LIFT
WILL COMBINE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES MID WEEK WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCE BY THE
ARCTIC INVASION...WITH HIGHS AND LOW FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW
CLIMO.  BEYOND MID-WEEK...A SLOW MODERATING TREND IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST AS HEIGHTS RISE AND UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS
EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL HELP AID
TEMPERATURE IN RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INCLUDING
KLBF...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FAR SW MAY LINGER CLOSE TO BKN025. GENERALLY
VFR THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWERING/REDEVELOPING STRATUS TOWARDS
MORNING IS EXPECTED AGAIN...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW THROUGH 18Z SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF KVTN...HOWEVER KLBF COULD SEE SOME SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MASEK







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities