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000
FXUS63 KLBF 171142
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DARKENING IN THE IMAGE INDICATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH A BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FOR TODAY...RETURN FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WEAK BOUNDARY AS INDICATED BY THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 290-300K LAYER. WITH CONDENSATION
DEFICITS OF 45MB OR LOWER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A CROSS-SECTION OF THETA-E...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION INDICATES SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE 290-305K LAYER UNTIL AROUND 18Z. THEREFORE...
SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE...THOUGH THE COVERAGE
IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GET
ABOVE 0C IN THE 15-18Z PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR A
MIX.

AS THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE AND SOME SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

STARTING ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS WHILE THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALOFT NOW OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN MOVE ONLAND. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE THE SECOND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST
SLIGHTLY...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. SEVERAL SURFACE LOS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE ONE WITH THE
MOST IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE THE ONE OVER EASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LOOKING FOR A RATHER BREEZY AND WARM DAY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER ON FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MIXING OVER THE WESTERN AREAS UP TO
700-600MB AND TO 800MB OVER THE EASTERN HALF. WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE WEST. DID WARM TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO GO WARMER YET AS THE FORECAST REMAINS BELOW
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGHS FROM THE SOUNDINGS. AS FOR THE
WINDS...GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO BE 20 TO 25KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER TOP OUT BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME NO FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED AS ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTH TO KEEP VERY DRY AIR FROM TAKING
OVER...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW IS ONLY DROPPING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T DROP TOO
FAR DUE WINDS STAYING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A
QUESTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AIR
BEING LIFTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND JUST DON/T THINK THERE IS ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AS THE LAYER
BELOW 600MB IS VERY DRY. DIDN/T WANT TO ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THOUGH AS THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT
LIES. 17.00Z MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL NOT BE
LOCALLY. BECAUSE OF THIS...REDUCED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
ISOLATED AND ONCOMING SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY BECOMING FAIRLY ZONAL. THEN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN A
BIT MORE AGAIN. THE MODELS AREN/T HANDLING THIS SYSTEM REAL WELL
AS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FROM ANY MODEL HAVE WAFFLED WITH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR INSTANCE...THE 17.00
RUNS ARE NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
IMPACTS THE MOISTURE FLOW NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG DRY LINE WITH BOTH HAVING LESSER IMPACT
WITH THE CURRENT RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK BUT THE TRAJECTORY RIGHT NOW WOULD
BRING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
COULD PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE DRY SLOT...LEADING TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WEST OF MRR-OGA-IML. CEILINGS
WILL LIFT ABOVE THE VISUAL THRESHOLDS BY 17Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 170845
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

THE 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DARKENING IN THE IMAGE INDICATED POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA... NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH A BOUNDARY OR WEAK FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FOR TODAY...RETURN FLOW FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WILL GENERATE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WEAK BOUNDARY AS INDICATED BY THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 290-300K LAYER. WITH CONDENSATION
DEFICITS OF 45MB OR LOWER...SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. A CROSS-SECTION OF THETA-E...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION INDICATES SOME
INSTABILITY IN THE 290-305K LAYER UNTIL AROUND 18Z. THEREFORE...
SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS WOULD BE APPROPRIATE...THOUGH THE COVERAGE
IS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GET
ABOVE 0C IN THE 15-18Z PERIOD...THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR A
MIX.

AS THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE AND SOME SUNSHINE CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

STARTING ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
THE PLAINS WHILE THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALOFT NOW OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN MOVE ONLAND. THE NORTHERN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHILE THE SECOND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST
SLIGHTLY...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. SEVERAL SURFACE LOS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE ONE WITH THE
MOST IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE THE ONE OVER EASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
EXTEND ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO NEW MEXICO. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY AND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS LOOKING FOR A RATHER BREEZY AND WARM DAY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER ON FRIDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO AROUND 20C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MIXING OVER THE WESTERN AREAS UP TO
700-600MB AND TO 800MB OVER THE EASTERN HALF. WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...THIS WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE WEST. DID WARM TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO GO WARMER YET AS THE FORECAST REMAINS BELOW
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGHS FROM THE SOUNDINGS. AS FOR THE
WINDS...GRADIENT WINDS LOOK TO BE 20 TO 25KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER TOP OUT BETWEEN 30
AND 40 KTS. AT THIS TIME NO FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED AS ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS BROUGHT NORTH TO KEEP VERY DRY AIR FROM TAKING
OVER...SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY NOW IS ONLY DROPPING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE.

THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
ALTHOUGH COOLER AIR MOVES IN THE TEMPERATURES SHOULDN/T DROP TOO
FAR DUE WINDS STAYING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE IS A
QUESTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AIR
BEING LIFTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE
IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND JUST DON/T THINK THERE IS ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF RAIN UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS QUESTIONABLE AS THE LAYER
BELOW 600MB IS VERY DRY. DIDN/T WANT TO ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THOUGH AS THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT
LIES. 17.00Z MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL NOT BE
LOCALLY. BECAUSE OF THIS...REDUCED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
ISOLATED AND ONCOMING SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
BRIEFLY BECOMING FAIRLY ZONAL. THEN A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN A
BIT MORE AGAIN. THE MODELS AREN/T HANDLING THIS SYSTEM REAL WELL
AS THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FROM ANY MODEL HAVE WAFFLED WITH THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR INSTANCE...THE 17.00
RUNS ARE NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH
IMPACTS THE MOISTURE FLOW NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG DRY LINE WITH BOTH HAVING LESSER IMPACT
WITH THE CURRENT RUNS. THAT BEING SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE MID WEEK BUT THE TRAJECTORY RIGHT NOW WOULD
BRING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
COULD PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE DRY SLOT...LEADING TO LOWER RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CEILINGS IN MVFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORIES AFTER 17/12Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
20S. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL OCCUR AT TAF SITES AND HAVE LEFT TAFS DRY
FOR NOW.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 170539
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS NO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
TRANSITIONS INTO A LATE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOISTURE IS ELEVATED AND LIFT
IS MARGINAL. BEST LAPSE RATES TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMP
THROUGH THE COLUMN IS BELOW ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BEST LIFT AREA...NW CWA. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP HOLDING TOGETHER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES
DECREASE...HOWEVER THERE IS A POCKET OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K/295K
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY...IN LIQUID
FORM...INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. TEMPS REBOUND
TOMORROW ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND EXIT EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELOW H850
MB...WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT AND MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. 998MB LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER SWRN SD
BY FRIDAY EVENING DRAWING THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A
CHECK WITH THE MODELS INDICATED LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH CLOUDS AS
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS.

THE MODELS DID SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD BE CARRIED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. K INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE
25C OR LESS BUT THE NAM INDICATED 750MB CAPE UP TO 300 J/KG. POPS
ARE ISOLATED FRIDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR PINE RIDGE.

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FCST AREA SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A GOOD PORTION OF ANY
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN
BY THE MODELS THAN MORE CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...K INDICES REMAIN 25 TO 30C ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND TSTM CHANCES ARE ISOLATED.

FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH. THESE WINDS ARE PART OF A VERY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WHICH IS
TIMED TO MOVE OFF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS...WARM LOWS IN
THE 40S SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES AT H850 FALL ABOUT 7C
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD COVER THE FCST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH AND LIFT INTO KS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
COULD ENERGIZE THE PACIFIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTL NEB SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS
BELIEVED THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND SKIES WOULD CLEAR BY AFTN ALL AREAS.

A DEEP UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...WILL MIGRATE
SOUTH AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DO SEVERAL THINGS. IT WILL FLUSH VERY WARM AIR OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL OPEN THE GULF AND BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND IT WILL DEEPEN A SFC
LOW TO AROUND 985 MB OR LOWER BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
PRODUCING BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 35 KT AND ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

THERE ARE WRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECM WOULD LIKE TO GENERATE
TSTMS LATE TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS
BELIEVED THE BEST FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECM STORMS COULD FIRE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE FCST WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON DETAILS AS
INDICATED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 4 THROUGH 8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

CEILINGS IN MVFR CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORIES AFTER 17/12Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING
OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
20S. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES MID MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL OCCUR AT TAF SITES AND HAVE LEFT TAFS DRY
FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 170014
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
714 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS NO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
TRANSITIONS INTO A LATE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOISTURE IS ELEVATED AND LIFT
IS MARGINAL. BEST LAPSE RATES TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMP
THROUGH THE COLUMN IS BELOW ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BEST LIFT AREA...NW CWA. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP HOLDING TOGETHER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES
DECREASE...HOWEVER THERE IS A POCKET OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K/295K
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY...IN LIQUID
FORM...INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. TEMPS REBOUND
TOMORROW ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND EXIT EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELOW H850
MB...WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT AND MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. 998MB LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER SWRN SD
BY FRIDAY EVENING DRAWING THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A
CHECK WITH THE MODELS INDICATED LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH CLOUDS AS
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS.

THE MODELS DID SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD BE CARRIED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. K INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE
25C OR LESS BUT THE NAM INDICATED 750MB CAPE UP TO 300 J/KG. POPS
ARE ISOLATED FRIDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR PINE RIDGE.

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FCST AREA SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A GOOD PORTION OF ANY
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN
BY THE MODELS THAN MORE CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...K INDICES REMAIN 25 TO 30C ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND TSTM CHANCES ARE ISOLATED.

FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH. THESE WINDS ARE PART OF A VERY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WHICH IS
TIMED TO MOVE OFF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS...WARM LOWS IN
THE 40S SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES AT H850 FALL ABOUT 7C
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD COVER THE FCST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH AND LIFT INTO KS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
COULD ENERGIZE THE PACIFIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTL NEB SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS
BELIEVED THIS DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND SKIES WOULD CLEAR BY AFTN ALL AREAS.

A DEEP UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...WILL MIGRATE
SOUTH AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DO SEVERAL THINGS. IT WILL FLUSH VERY WARM AIR OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL OPEN THE GULF AND BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND IT WILL DEEPEN A SFC
LOW TO AROUND 985 MB OR LOWER BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
PRODUCING BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 35 KT AND ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

THERE ARE WRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECM WOULD LIKE TO GENERATE
TSTMS LATE TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS
BELIEVED THE BEST FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECM STORMS COULD FIRE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE FCST WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON DETAILS AS
INDICATED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 4 THROUGH 8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CEILINGS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH. SOME MINOR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT FOG.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE
WEST WITH SNOW OR MIXED SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE FAR WEST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 162015
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MILD WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS NO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST
CONCERNS RAIN CHANCES WITH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
AND TEMPERATURES AND TSTM CHANCES NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
TRANSITIONS INTO A LATE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOISTURE IS ELEVATED AND LIFT
IS MARGINAL. BEST LAPSE RATES TO OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMP
THROUGH THE COLUMN IS BELOW ZERO. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
BEST LIFT AREA...NW CWA. BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP HOLDING TOGETHER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES
DECREASE...HOWEVER THERE IS A POCKET OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 290K/295K
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY ISOLD/SCT ACTIVITY...IN LIQUID
FORM...INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. TEMPS REBOUND
TOMORROW ONLY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAILING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THURSDAY AND EXIT EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BELOW H850
MB...WAS INDICATED IN THE MODELS TO SUPPORT AND MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WARM UP FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. 998MB LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER SWRN SD
BY FRIDAY EVENING DRAWING THE WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. A
CHECK WITH THE MODELS INDICATED LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH CLOUDS AS
HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS.

THE MODELS DID SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE FRIDAY AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT DEVELOPS...WOULD BE CARRIED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. K INDICES DURING THIS TIME ARE
25C OR LESS BUT THE NAM INDICATED 750MB CAPE UP TO 300 J/KG. POPS
ARE ISOLATED FRIDAY NIGHT EXCEPT NEAR PINE RIDGE.

A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FCST AREA SATURDAY. THIS
FRONT WOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE A GOOD PORTION OF ANY
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE FCST AREA. IF THE FRONT IS WEAKER THAN SHOWN
BY THE MODELS THAN MORE CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP. AS IT STANDS
NOW...K INDICES REMAIN 25 TO 30C ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND TSTM CHANCES ARE ISOLATED.

FRIDAY WILL BE A WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25
MPH. THESE WINDS ARE PART OF A VERY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WHICH IS
TIMED TO MOVE OFF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. THUS...IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS...WARM LOWS IN
THE 40S SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S. TEMPERATURES AT H850 FALL ABOUT 7C
AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD COVER THE FCST AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH AND LIFT INTO KS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
COULD ENERGIZE THE PACIFIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTL NEB SATURDAY
NIGHT AND PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT IS
BELIEVED THIS DISTURABANCE WILL EXIT THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND SKIES WOULD CLEAR BY AFTN ALL AREAS.

A DEEP UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ALUETIANS...WILL MIGRATE
SOUTH AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DO SEVERAL THINGS. IT WILL FLUSH VERY WARM AIR OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL OPEN THE GULF AND BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FCST
AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AND IT WILL DEEPEN A SFC
LOW TO AROUND 985 MB OR LOWER BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE
PRODUCING BULK SHEAR VALUES OVER 35 KT AND ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

THERE ARE WRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AS THE ECM WOULD LIKE TO GENERATE
TSTMS LATE TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FCST AREA AND
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS
BELIEVED THE BEST FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECM STORMS COULD FIRE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT THE FCST WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON DETAILS AS
INDICATED IN THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR DAY 4 THROUGH 8.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

COMPLEX WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME ISOLD/SCT RAIN SHOWERS DRIFTING SE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING TO SEE
DRY AIR INFLUENCE AND RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OF THIS AREA OF PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO GOING TO SEE SOME MVFR LOCALLY IFR
CIGS...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NEB...INCLUDING KVTN...INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR
OVERNIGHT IS DIMINISHING AS THE LATEST NAM MODEL DOES HOLD THE
LOWER MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE SECOND WAVE...HOWEVER IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...WELL WEST OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 161807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NORTH OF VALENTINE. THAT SYSTEM
HAD ORIGINATED IN SOUTHWEST CANADA OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW. FROM THE SURFACE LOW...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST UTAH. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WAS
INDICATED WITH A WAVE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE FRONT
EXTENDING TO SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. MUCH COLDER AIR WAS NORTH
OF THAT SECOND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AS THE ALBERTA STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ON THROUGH NEBRASKA. A LOOK AT THE 295K AND 300K
THETA SURFACES SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS AND SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT (LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE EXCEEDING 10UB/S). WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF SATURATION IN THE NORTH...THAT IS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH
THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
SHIFTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE MOISTURE AND LEVEL OF
SATURATION IS NOT REAL FAVORABLE. ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS CAN BE
DISCERNED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE SECOND FRONT COMES INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THAT SHOULD LOSE ITS IMPETUS LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE THE TERMS BEGIN TO BALANCE.

IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
PRETTY WINDY WITH 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WIND GUSTING TO 35 LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND
BEGINS DECREASING. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE
RADIATION INVERSION WILL SET UP BEFORE LATE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REMNANT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NEBRASKA TO START THIS
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE DAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST BRINGING SUBSIDENT AIR INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH GOOD SUN THE SURFACE SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SMALL POOL OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN 800MB AND 650MB AND WITH THE
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE IN
THE MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...OR NOT COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO BE HIGH SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST SO ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS SNOW...BUT AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WARM...IT WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALSO TO CONSIDER...SOME
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD
HIGHLY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST EDGE MAY JUST CLIP THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO DID ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD SO IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR AND BEGINS AS SNOW...IT SHOULD SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN BY 12Z.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN...WARMING
THE AIR AND KEEPING IT DRY. THEN ON SATURDAY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TWO
SYSTEMS CROSSING THE COUNTRY...THE FIRST BEING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE SECOND BEING AN TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE SPECIFICS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE...BUT THEY ALL ARE INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE LINKING UP. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL
TO VALENTINE...BUT JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A DIFFERENT OUTCOME. SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY.
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT
BEING QUITE LIMITED SO JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA.

WARM AND DRY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHERE FOCUS THEN MOVES TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER NICELY...BRINGING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ON A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS SOLUTION COULD LEAD TO THE FIRST SEVERE EVENT OF
THE SEASON FOR THE LOCAL AREA AT MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

COMPLEX WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME ISOLD/SCT RAIN SHOWERS DRIFTING SE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL/CENTRAL NEB THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BEGINNING TO SEE
DRY AIR INFLUENCE AND RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OF THIS AREA OF PRECIP LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO GOING TO SEE SOME MVFR LOCALLY IFR
CIGS...MAINLY ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL NEB...INCLUDING KVTN...INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR
OVERNIGHT IS DIMINISHING AS THE LATEST NAM MODEL DOES HOLD THE
LOWER MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AT THIS TIME EXPECT AS A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...MIXING WILL BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE SECOND WAVE...HOWEVER IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...WELL WEST OF THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 161123
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NORTH OF VALENTINE. THAT SYSTEM
HAD ORIGINATED IN SOUTHWEST CANADA OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW. FROM THE SURFACE LOW...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST UTAH. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WAS
INDICATED WITH A WAVE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE FRONT
EXTENDING TO SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. MUCH COLDER AIR WAS NORTH
OF THAT SECOND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AS THE ALBERTA STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ON THROUGH NEBRASKA. A LOOK AT THE 295K AND 300K
THETA SURFACES SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS AND SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT (LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE EXCEEDING 10UB/S). WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF SATURATION IN THE NORTH...THAT IS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH
THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
SHIFTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE MOISTURE AND LEVEL OF
SATURATION IS NOT REAL FAVORABLE. ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS CAN BE
DISCERNED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE SECOND FRONT COMES INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THAT SHOULD LOSE ITS IMPETUS LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE THE TERMS BEGIN TO BALANCE.

IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
PRETTY WINDY WITH 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WIND GUSTING TO 35 LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND
BEGINS DECREASING. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE
RADIATION INVERSION WILL SET UP BEFORE LATE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REMNANT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NEBRASKA TO START THIS
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE DAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST BRINGING SUBSIDENT AIR INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH GOOD SUN THE SURFACE SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SMALL POOL OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN 800MB AND 650MB AND WITH THE
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE IN
THE MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...OR NOT COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO BE HIGH SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST SO ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS SNOW...BUT AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WARM...IT WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALSO TO CONSIDER...SOME
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD
HIGHLY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST EDGE MAY JUST CLIP THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO DID ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD SO IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR AND BEGINS AS SNOW...IT SHOULD SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN BY 12Z.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN...WARMING
THE AIR AND KEEPING IT DRY. THEN ON SATURDAY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TWO
SYSTEMS CROSSING THE COUNTRY...THE FIRST BEING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE SECOND BEING AN TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE SPECIFICS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE...BUT THEY ALL ARE INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE LINKING UP. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL
TO VALENTINE...BUT JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A DIFFERENT OUTCOME. SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY.
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT
BEING QUITE LIMITED SO JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA.

WARM AND DRY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHERE FOCUS THEN MOVES TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER NICELY...BRINGING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ON A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS SOLUTION COULD LEAD TO THE FIRST SEVERE EVENT OF
THE SEASON FOR THE LOCAL AREA AT MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHOWERS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA-NEBRASKA BORDER WILL BRING
SOME 2000-3000 FEET CEILINGS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE VISUAL THRESHOLDS.

WIND IS A LITTLE MORE OF AN ISSUE WITH 340-020 AT 20-25G28-34KT
EXPECTED MOST OF TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 160851
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER NORTH OF VALENTINE. THAT SYSTEM
HAD ORIGINATED IN SOUTHWEST CANADA OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW. FROM THE SURFACE LOW...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST UTAH. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WAS
INDICATED WITH A WAVE IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE FRONT
EXTENDING TO SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA. MUCH COLDER AIR WAS NORTH
OF THAT SECOND FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

AS THE ALBERTA STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
THE FRONT WILL PUSH ON THROUGH NEBRASKA. A LOOK AT THE 295K AND 300K
THETA SURFACES SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS AND SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT (LOCAL
PRESSURE DERIVATIVE EXCEEDING 10UB/S). WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND DEGREE OF SATURATION IN THE NORTH...THAT IS THE AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES ON THROUGH
THIS MORNING...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS ALSO
SHIFTS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE THE MOISTURE AND LEVEL OF
SATURATION IS NOT REAL FAVORABLE. ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS CAN BE
DISCERNED IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE SECOND FRONT COMES INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THAT SHOULD LOSE ITS IMPETUS LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN THE THE TERMS BEGIN TO BALANCE.

IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IT WILL BE
PRETTY WINDY WITH 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WIND GUSTING TO 35 LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND WIND
BEGINS DECREASING. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE
RADIATION INVERSION WILL SET UP BEFORE LATE EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REMNANT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER NEBRASKA TO START THIS
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY IN THE DAY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST BRINGING SUBSIDENT AIR INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH GOOD SUN THE SURFACE SHOULD WARM EFFICIENTLY AND
WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SMALL POOL OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN 800MB AND 650MB AND WITH THE
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE IN
THE MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. DON/T EXPECT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY...OR NOT COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO BE HIGH SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST SO ANY PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AS SNOW...BUT AS TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WARM...IT WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. ALSO TO CONSIDER...SOME
OF THE MODELS KEEP THE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WHICH COULD
HIGHLY INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE KEPT HIGHS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

AN ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA THURSDAY
EVENING AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST EDGE MAY JUST CLIP THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SO DID ADD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
DEW POINTS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD SO IF
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR AND BEGINS AS SNOW...IT SHOULD SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN BY 12Z.

FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN...WARMING
THE AIR AND KEEPING IT DRY. THEN ON SATURDAY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TWO
SYSTEMS CROSSING THE COUNTRY...THE FIRST BEING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH THE SECOND BEING AN TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE SPECIFICS IN THE SURFACE FEATURES AND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE...BUT THEY ALL ARE INDICATING LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE LINKING UP. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...DO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SOMETIME ON SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL
TO VALENTINE...BUT JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FEATURES OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A DIFFERENT OUTCOME. SO WILL WATCH CLOSELY.
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW IT
BEING QUITE LIMITED SO JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA.

WARM AND DRY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WHERE FOCUS THEN MOVES TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
RANGE MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER NICELY...BRINGING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ON A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK AS THIS SOLUTION COULD LEAD TO THE FIRST SEVERE EVENT OF
THE SEASON FOR THE LOCAL AREA AT MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT VFR CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT OVERCAST CIGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS MAY DROP DOWN TO 2000 FT AGL WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP
TO 3 TO 5 SM IN ANY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15
TO 25 KTS. SOME GUSTS MAY ECLIPSE 30 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB









000
FXUS63 KLBF 160444
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1144 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO TX...RESULTING IN A CHILLY MID APRIL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
HAS HELPED TO BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE CWA...MOST OBS REPORTING
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. A SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE CAN/N CENTRAL
MONTANA BORDER...WITH ONE TAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SW...AND A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MT AND S DAKOTA...WITH
THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY MORNING. MOISTURE
LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA WHERE LOWEST COND PRES DEF LOCATED IN THE 295K SURFACE.
850 MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE OPTED
FOR ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH CLOUDS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
MODELS PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF AND AGREE AMOUNTS NOT OVER A TENTH OF AN
INCH. ALSO GOING TO SEE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BECOME GUSTY.

SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER A
BRIEF RISE OF TEMPS IN THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH. A
CHILLY MID APRIL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...50S SOUTH. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. ONE CONCERN
IS IF TEMPS HOLD IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPLITTING AND FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS MONTANA
AND THE DAKOTAS AND TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEBR FROM
WEAK INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH....BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH. REGARDING HIGH
THURSDAY...TRENDED UP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES TO NEAR 55 SWRN NEBR
AND NEAR 45 AT ONL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO KANSAS AND NEBR BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...AND DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS
EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOP...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF
FA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS RAISE TO THE 60S FRIDAY. MAINLY
60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT
ALSO LOOK LIKE ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL END AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT VFR CONDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT OVERCAST CIGS RANGING FROM 5000 TO 10000 FT AGL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS MAY DROP DOWN TO 2000 FT AGL WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP
TO 3 TO 5 SM IN ANY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15
TO 25 KTS. SOME GUSTS MAY ECLIPSE 30 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 152331
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO TX...RESULTING IN A CHILLY MID APRIL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
HAS HELPED TO BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE CWA...MOST OBS REPORTING
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. A SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE CAN/N CENTRAL
MONTANA BORDER...WITH ONE TAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SW...AND A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MT AND S DAKOTA...WITH
THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY MORNING. MOISTURE
LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA WHERE LOWEST COND PRES DEF LOCATED IN THE 295K SURFACE.
850 MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE OPTED
FOR ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH CLOUDS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
MODELS PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF AND AGREE AMOUNTS NOT OVER A TENTH OF AN
INCH. ALSO GOING TO SEE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BECOME GUSTY.

SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER A
BRIEF RISE OF TEMPS IN THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH. A
CHILLY MID APRIL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...50S SOUTH. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. ONE CONCERN
IS IF TEMPS HOLD IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPLITTING AND FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS MONTANA
AND THE DAKOTAS AND TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEBR FROM
WEAK INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH....BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH. REGARDING HIGH
THURSDAY...TRENDED UP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES TO NEAR 55 SWRN NEBR
AND NEAR 45 AT ONL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP 5 TO 15 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO KANSAS AND NEBR BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...AND DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS
EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOP...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF
FA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS RAISE TO THE 60S FRIDAY. MAINLY
60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT
ALSO LOOK LIKE ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL END AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL BE
AROUND 20000 FT AGL. AFTER MID MORNING...LOWER CLOUDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 KTS TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSBLE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LOW CLOUDINESS AROUND
5000 FT AGL WILL SET IN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP FURTHER
TO AROUND 2500 FT AGL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. VISBYS MAY
DROP AS LOW AS 4SM WITH CIGS DROPPING FURTHER TO AROUND 1500 FT
AGL. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END AROUND 18Z WITH BROKEN
CIGS AROUND 5000 FT AGL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 152048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO TX...RESULTING IN A CHILLY MID APRIL DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE SOME DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
HAS HELPED TO BRING SOME WARMTH TO THE CWA...MOST OBS REPORTING
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. A SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE CAN/N CENTRAL
MONTANA BORDER...WITH ONE TAILING COLD FRONT TO THE SW...AND A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR IN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS MT AND S DAKOTA...WITH
THE FIRST COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY MORNING. MOISTURE
LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA WHERE LOWEST COND PRES DEF LOCATED IN THE 295K SURFACE.
850 MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 0C INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND HAVE OPTED
FOR ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH CLOUDS TO HELP HOLD TEMPS IN THE MID 30S.
MODELS PRODUCE A LITTLE QPF AND AGREE AMOUNTS NOT OVER A TENTH OF AN
INCH. ALSO GOING TO SEE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
BECOME GUSTY.

SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER A
BRIEF RISE OF TEMPS IN THE MORNING...THEY SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL FOR THE AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTH. A
CHILLY MID APRIL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...50S SOUTH. LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. ONE CONCERN
IS IF TEMPS HOLD IN THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH...THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPLITTING AND FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS MONTANA
AND THE DAKOTAS AND TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINTAINED MAINLY ACROSS NRN NEBR FROM
WEAK INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH....BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH. REGARDING HIGH
THURSDAY...TRENDED UP ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES TO NEAR 55 SWRN NEBR
AND NEAR 45 AT ONL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP 5 TO 15 MPH.


FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO KANSAS AND NEBR BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...AND DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS
EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY
DEVELOP...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF
FA. REGARDING TEMPERATURES...HIGHS RAISE TO THE 60S FRIDAY. MAINLY
60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. IT
ALSO LOOK LIKE ANY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL END AFTER
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD
VFR WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND S/SSW WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO
25 KTS BEFORE SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET WINDS DECOUPLE UNTIL COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS. NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE LOWERING
CIGS AND MAY SEE MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DID NOT BRING PRECIP INTO KVTN
YET...AND KEPT CIGS VFR...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FURTHER SOUTH ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS...WHICH
INCLUDES THE KLBF TAF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK









000
FXUS63 KLBF 151728
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT 07Z. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
IDAHO TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. THEN...
THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPS (INDICATED WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE
DERIVATIVE ON THE 295K AND 300K SURFACES). THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND LIFTS INTO A MORE UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE 700MB
(300K)...BUT FRONTOLYSIS AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE JET CUT THE LIFT
OFF QUICKLY. AS A RESULT...ONLY NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS A SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECASTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SPLITTING AND FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HAVE SCALED
BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTH...AS THE BEST
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH THE SOUTHERN ENERGY REMAINS TO
OUR SOUTH. AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ENERGY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MIGHT NOT
BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND MOVES IT INTO THE THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...AND EMERGES THE
ENERGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS
DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MOST AREAS WILL BE VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD
VFR WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND S/SSW WINDS GUSTING AT TIMES TO
25 KTS BEFORE SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET WINDS DECOUPLE UNTIL COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS. NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL SEE LOWERING
CIGS AND MAY SEE MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND DID NOT BRING PRECIP INTO KVTN
YET...AND KEPT CIGS VFR...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FURTHER SOUTH ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS...WHICH
INCLUDES THE KLBF TAF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 151121
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT 07Z. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
IDAHO TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. THEN...
THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPS (INDICATED WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE
DERIVATIVE ON THE 295K AND 300K SURFACES). THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND LIFTS INTO A MORE UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE 700MB
(300K)...BUT FRONTOLYSIS AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE JET CUT THE LIFT
OFF QUICKLY. AS A RESULT...ONLY NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS A SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECASTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SPLITTING AND FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HAVE SCALED
BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTH...AS THE BEST
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH THE SOUTHERN ENERGY REMAINS TO
OUR SOUTH. AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ENERGY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MIGHT NOT
BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND MOVES IT INTO THE THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...AND EMERGES THE
ENERGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS
DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM
INTO THE AREA. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
STATE...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF -RASN OUT
OF THE KVTN TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 150901
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WAS THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT 07Z. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THEN ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
IDAHO TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. THEN...
THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SYSTEM
RELATIVE UPWARD MOTION DEVELOPS (INDICATED WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE
DERIVATIVE ON THE 295K AND 300K SURFACES). THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED AND LIFTS INTO A MORE UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE 700MB
(300K)...BUT FRONTOLYSIS AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE JET CUT THE LIFT
OFF QUICKLY. AS A RESULT...ONLY NORTHERN NEBRASKA HAS A SHOT AT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECASTED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR OUR AREA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SPLITTING AND FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. HAVE SCALED
BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTH...AS THE BEST
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH THE SOUTHERN ENERGY REMAINS TO
OUR SOUTH. AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN ENERGY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT TO
LOW END CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND JUST NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE
RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND MIGHT NOT
BE QUITE WARM ENOUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND MOVES IT INTO THE THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER...AND EMERGES THE
ENERGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS
DRAW SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S DEW POINTS EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL SEE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOP...AND WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVES INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON 20000
FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KLBF 150441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
PLAINS DOWN INTO TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND STRONG RIDGING OVER
BOTH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A COLD AIRMASS CONTINUED TO BE IN PLACE
LOCALLY AS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE READING FROM -1C TO -5C
ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA AS OF 20Z. EVEN WITH MAXIMUM WARMING...THIS
COLD AIRMASS ONLY HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THIS COLD AIR ALOFT LED TO WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN AREA OF HIGH 700MB MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THIS LAYER DID ALLOW FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CUMULUS FIELD WHICH SPANNED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
PROHIBITED THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE IN MANY AREAS. WHERE
THE SNOW DID REACH THE GROUND...DID SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 MILES. ALSO...DUE TO THE DRY AIR...THE WET
BULB TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS COMPLETELY BELOW 0C...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS AND WILL FALL IS SNOW REGARDLESS OF
TEMPERATURES BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RIDGING TO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE COLD. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
WOULD SUGGEST LOWS DOWN IN THIS RANGE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MELTING IS EXPECTED OF THE SNOW FROM YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE WILL
REMAIN SOME SNOW COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT. SO MADE AN
ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT SNOWCOVER...FORECASTING COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ALOFT /850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO THE 8C TO 12C RANGE BY 00Z/. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...SO
LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S. COULD ARGUE THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD NEAR 70...BUT WITH SOME
QUESTION AS TO THE IMPACT STILL OF SNOW COVER AND A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL OUTPUT AT THIS TIME HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY. BUT...THINKING THE WARMER SIDE IS THE WAY TO GO SO TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS REGION. INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO NRN
SHERIDAN/NW CHERRY COUNTY AFTER 06Z JUST BEHIND H7 NRN PLAINS
THROUGH. LOWS NOT AS COLD IN THE MID 30S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THE REMAINING FA PRIOR TO 18Z. WILL REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS
FCST HIGHS WITH MID 50S SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST. ALSO
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND CONFINED TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MATURE ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND FAR SERN NEBR.
PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...SNOW OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LOWER
40S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. INSTEAD INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES...FAVORING A SLOWER TIMING WITH BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
OTHERWISE...A DAILY WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY AND ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH MUCH MILDER AIR RETURNING
TO THE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FRIDAY...60S
SATURDAY...NEAR 70 SUNDAY AND LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY. DRY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVES INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON 20000
FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 142329
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
629 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
PLAINS DOWN INTO TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND STRONG RIDGING OVER
BOTH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A COLD AIRMASS CONTINUED TO BE IN PLACE
LOCALLY AS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE READING FROM -1C TO -5C
ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA AS OF 20Z. EVEN WITH MAXIMUM WARMING...THIS
COLD AIRMASS ONLY HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THIS COLD AIR ALOFT LED TO WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN AREA OF HIGH 700MB MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THIS LAYER DID ALLOW FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CUMULUS FIELD WHICH SPANNED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
PROHIBITED THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE IN MANY AREAS. WHERE
THE SNOW DID REACH THE GROUND...DID SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 MILES. ALSO...DUE TO THE DRY AIR...THE WET
BULB TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS COMPLETELY BELOW 0C...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS AND WILL FALL IS SNOW REGARDLESS OF
TEMPERATURES BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RIDGING TO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE COLD. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
WOULD SUGGEST LOWS DOWN IN THIS RANGE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MELTING IS EXPECTED OF THE SNOW FROM YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE WILL
REMAIN SOME SNOW COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT. SO MADE AN
ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT SNOWCOVER...FORECASTING COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ALOFT /850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO THE 8C TO 12C RANGE BY 00Z/. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...SO
LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S. COULD ARGUE THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD NEAR 70...BUT WITH SOME
QUESTION AS TO THE IMPACT STILL OF SNOW COVER AND A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL OUTPUT AT THIS TIME HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY. BUT...THINKING THE WARMER SIDE IS THE WAY TO GO SO TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS REGION. INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO NRN
SHERIDAN/NW CHERRY COUNTY AFTER 06Z JUST BEHIND H7 NRN PLAINS
THROUGH. LOWS NOT AS COLD IN THE MID 30S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THE REMAINING FA PRIOR TO 18Z. WILL REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS
FCST HIGHS WITH MID 50S SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST. ALSO
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND CONFINED TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MATURE ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND FAR SERN NEBR.
PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...SNOW OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LOWER
40S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. INSTEAD INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES...FAVORING A SLOWER TIMING WITH BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
OTHERWISE...A DAILY WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY AND ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH MUCH MILDER AIR RETURNING
TO THE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FRIDAY...60S
SATURDAY...NEAR 70 SUNDAY AND LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY. DRY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AT THE
KVTN TERMINAL. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT UNDER 6 KTS.
ON TUESDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KTS. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KTS AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER 19Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 142041
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE
PLAINS DOWN INTO TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND STRONG RIDGING OVER
BOTH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. A COLD AIRMASS CONTINUED TO BE IN PLACE
LOCALLY AS TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WERE READING FROM -1C TO -5C
ACCORDING TO LAPS DATA AS OF 20Z. EVEN WITH MAXIMUM WARMING...THIS
COLD AIRMASS ONLY HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THIS COLD AIR ALOFT LED TO WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN AREA OF HIGH 700MB MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE INSTABILITY IN THIS LAYER DID ALLOW FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CUMULUS FIELD WHICH SPANNED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
PROHIBITED THE SNOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE IN MANY AREAS. WHERE
THE SNOW DID REACH THE GROUND...DID SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 MILES. ALSO...DUE TO THE DRY AIR...THE WET
BULB TEMPERATURE TRACE WAS COMPLETELY BELOW 0C...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS AND WILL FALL IS SNOW REGARDLESS OF
TEMPERATURES BEING WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RIDGING TO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE COLD. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
WOULD SUGGEST LOWS DOWN IN THIS RANGE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH FURTHER
MELTING IS EXPECTED OF THE SNOW FROM YESTERDAY...FEEL THERE WILL
REMAIN SOME SNOW COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT LOWS TONIGHT. SO MADE AN
ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT SNOWCOVER...FORECASTING COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS.

THEN FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ALOFT /850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO THE 8C TO 12C RANGE BY 00Z/. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS...SO
LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S. COULD ARGUE THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD NEAR 70...BUT WITH SOME
QUESTION AS TO THE IMPACT STILL OF SNOW COVER AND A LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL OUTPUT AT THIS TIME HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY. BUT...THINKING THE WARMER SIDE IS THE WAY TO GO SO TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING AND THE
BLACK HILLS REGION. INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO NRN
SHERIDAN/NW CHERRY COUNTY AFTER 06Z JUST BEHIND H7 NRN PLAINS
THROUGH. LOWS NOT AS COLD IN THE MID 30S. THEN ON WEDNESDAY...A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THE REMAINING FA PRIOR TO 18Z. WILL REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS
FCST HIGHS WITH MID 50S SOUTHEAST TO THE MID 40S NORTHWEST. ALSO
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND CONFINED TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MATURE ACROSS COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND FAR SERN NEBR.
PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...SNOW OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BACK TO RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS THURSDAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LOWER
40S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WHILE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. INSTEAD INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
ZONES...FAVORING A SLOWER TIMING WITH BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
OTHERWISE...A DAILY WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
SUNDAY AND ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH MUCH MILDER AIR RETURNING
TO THE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 FRIDAY...60S
SATURDAY...NEAR 70 SUNDAY AND LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY. DRY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. FROM LATEST OBSERVATIONS...LITTLE SNOW
IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE SHOWERS...SO VISIBILITY REMAINS
VFR. WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO GET CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FOR A VERY BRIEF TIME WITH LOWERED
VISIBILITIES. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY LOWERED CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECASTS AS THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACT OCCURRING AT
THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND PICK
UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 141739
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND...
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY. LAPSE RATES FROM
850-700MB ARE STEEP AND MOIST BUT THE 850MB-SFC LAYER IS VERY DRY
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. WHILE TEMPERATURE RISE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S THIS AFTN...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WITH BE
CLOSE TO THE GROUND AND THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW FOR THE PTYPE. SO
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

NO MEASURABLE QPF WAS INDICATED IN THE RAP SOLN BUT THE HRRR
ACTUALLY SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH SEVERAL STREAKS OF 0.01
QPF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES H700MB AROUND -18C AT KVTN
WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR MID APRIL.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL DRAW ANOTHER WEAK PIECE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
WRN HALF DEVELOPS SOUTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WARM AIR QUICKLY SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS RISING TO 8C TO 12C BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE RAISED LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET KEEPS ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM...NEARING 13C.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS THROUGH QUICKLY AS AN
OPEN WAVE...WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CROSSING THROUGH
NORTHERN KANSAS. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHEST POPS /NEAR 40 PERCENT/
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW OR WET SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF AT THIS
POINT. CHILLY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY...AS MORE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH
ADVERTISING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
TROUGH DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT SOME TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE
NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...AND THEN PERHAPS SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE PLAINS...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...AS THE
MODELS SEEM TO BE JUST STARTING TO LATCH ONTO THIS SCENARIO. IF THIS
CONTINUES TO BE SHOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...THEN SOME THUNDER
MENTION WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. FROM LATEST OBSERVATIONS...LITTLE SNOW
IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE SHOWERS...SO VISIBILITY REMAINS
VFR. WOULD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH THESE SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO GET CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FOR A VERY BRIEF TIME WITH LOWERED
VISIBILITIES. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY LOWERED CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECASTS AS THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACT OCCURRING AT
THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND PICK
UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS










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