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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
FAIRLY LOW MINIMUMS TONIGHT AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELIEVE THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON
TRACK WITH HAVING LOWS DROPPING BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL MODIFICATIONS TO THE LOWS...BUT EXPECTING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND PINE RIDGE WHERE LOW
TO MID 30S ARE LOOKING PROBABLE. ALSO...RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
FAVORABLE COLD LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 40
DEGREES TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ABUNDANT DRY AIR THROUGH THE LAYER AND WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE TRAJECTORY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL
SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. THE 24.12Z
NAM AND THE 24.00Z ECMWF SHOW THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH STICKING AROUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND ALSO SLIGHTLY SHUNTING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 24.00Z GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND WARMS THINGS UP A BIT MORE. ALSO...DESPITE THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND THE WARM AIR ALOFT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING QUITE MINIMAL...TO ONLY 850MB.  THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE MORE APPARENT LOOKING AT STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH VARY IN HIGHS FROM 75 TO 82 DEGREES AT KLBF. NOT
QUITE BUYING THE REAL COOLER NUMBERS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPACT OF TEMPERATURES COOLING FROM THE HIGH SO NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...HIGHS WILL STILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
COOLDOWN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY...

CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY. HAVE EXPANDED LOWER 80 HIGHS
ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND MIX DOWN H85 TEMPS AROUND
20C TO THE SURFACE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NWRN FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT AND WRN WY. THIS
WILL DRIVE A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. A WEAK FGEN BAND MAINLY LOCATED IN
THE H8 THROUGH H6 LAYER WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED IN THIS LAYER...AND FAIRLY DRY ABOVE AND BELOW...COVERAGE
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. FAVOR THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ON LOCATION...WHICH FAVORS UP TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF FA THROUGH 18Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE AFTN. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 KEPT VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS TIMING OF FRONT AND CAA REMAINS SIMILAR. H85 TEMPS OF
4C-9C ON TUESDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR HIGHS. A BRIEF WARMUP WEDNESDAY
WILL H85 TEMPS OF 10C-16C AND HIGHS 65-70.

CONFIDENT IS BELOW AVERAGE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
/DAY6/AND FRIDAY /DAY7/. THE GFS IS THE COOLER MODEL AND THE
ECMWF WARMER. THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST EVENINGS RUNS. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN
JUXTAPOSITION TO AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INDICATES SOME COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY FORECAST FROM UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER/MID 60S
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM MID 50S EAST TO NEAR 60 WEST.
ALTHOUGH A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED...DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 242036
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
FAIRLY LOW MINIMUMS TONIGHT AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL NUMBERS AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER MONTANA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE...AS CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BELIEVE THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON
TRACK WITH HAVING LOWS DROPPING BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MADE ONLY
MINIMAL MODIFICATIONS TO THE LOWS...BUT EXPECTING THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES UP OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND PINE RIDGE WHERE LOW
TO MID 30S ARE LOOKING PROBABLE. ALSO...RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER
FAVORABLE COLD LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW 40
DEGREES TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ABUNDANT DRY AIR THROUGH THE LAYER AND WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE TRAJECTORY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL
SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON SATURDAY. THE 24.12Z
NAM AND THE 24.00Z ECMWF SHOW THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH STICKING AROUND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND ALSO SLIGHTLY SHUNTING SOME OF THE WARMER AIR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 24.00Z GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND WARMS THINGS UP A BIT MORE. ALSO...DESPITE THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE AND THE WARM AIR ALOFT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING QUITE MINIMAL...TO ONLY 850MB.  THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE MORE APPARENT LOOKING AT STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE...WHICH VARY IN HIGHS FROM 75 TO 82 DEGREES AT KLBF. NOT
QUITE BUYING THE REAL COOLER NUMBERS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPACT OF TEMPERATURES COOLING FROM THE HIGH SO NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...HIGHS WILL STILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHARP
COOLDOWN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY...

CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MILD SUNDAY. HAVE EXPANDED LOWER 80 HIGHS
ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND MIX DOWN H85 TEMPS AROUND
20C TO THE SURFACE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NWRN FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL PRECEDE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT AND WRN WY. THIS
WILL DRIVE A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. A WEAK FGEN BAND MAINLY LOCATED IN
THE H8 THROUGH H6 LAYER WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY
LOCATED IN THIS LAYER...AND FAIRLY DRY ABOVE AND BELOW...COVERAGE
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. FAVOR THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ON LOCATION...WHICH FAVORS UP TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE SERN
HALF OF FA THROUGH 18Z...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE AFTN. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 KEPT VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS TIMING OF FRONT AND CAA REMAINS SIMILAR. H85 TEMPS OF
4C-9C ON TUESDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR HIGHS. A BRIEF WARMUP WEDNESDAY
WILL H85 TEMPS OF 10C-16C AND HIGHS 65-70.


CONFIDENT IS BELOW AVERAGE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
/DAY6/AND FRIDAY /DAY7/. THE GFS IS THE COOLER MODEL AND THE
ECMWF WARMER. THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST EVENINGS RUNS. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN
JUXTAPOSITION TO AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INDICATES SOME COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY FORECAST FROM UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER/MID 60S
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY FROM MID 50S EAST TO NEAR 60 WEST.
ALTHOUGH A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED...DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEBRASKA. BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY...DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE OCCURRING BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY BELOW 10KTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THE HIGH THEN DRIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY SO LOOKING FOR
WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 241727
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA EWD INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA...AND NORTHERN MANITOBA. A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED SE FROM THE MANITOBA DISTURBANCE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS INDICATED A NICE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GAVE A BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND HAS INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WERE NOTED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. VISBYS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE A MINOR ONE COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD FOG FROM 24 HRS AGO
THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS PRESENT ATTM. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 40 AT VALENTINE TO
55 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR
TODAY...THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO HIGHS TDY AS THE MAV NUMBERS ARE WARMER THAN THE MET
NUMBERS. DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET
GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD COVER TDY. THIS SEEMED TO
AGREE BETTER WITH FCST SOUNDING HIGHS WHICH RANGED FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH...TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...RIDGING
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...FORCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S FOR NORTH PLATTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN...WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL MIXING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY...WHERE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WARMER LOWER 80S ARE FORECASTED...AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MIX WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

A WARM SIGNAL IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS 2 TO 4
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR. MODELS AGREE
THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH
WESTERLY WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. TYPICALLY THIS IS A WARM SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE AIR
ALOFT /3000 TO 7000 FEET AGL/ IS WARM AND EASILY MIXED TO THE
SURFACE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DECENT FGEN BAND ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IS LIMITED...EXPECTING THAT AT LEAST
A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED 30 POPS...AS
THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO BE GIVEN THE DECENT LIFT BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THE REST OF THE
WEEKS WEATHER. NOW THE GFS IS THE WARMER MODEL AND THE ECMWF COLDER.
THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF THE WARMER SOLUTION.
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF IS A MUCH STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING BEHIND A POTENT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME COLD AIR TO
DIVE ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEEKS END. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEBRASKA. BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY...DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE OCCURRING BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT SO EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY BELOW 10KTS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THE HIGH THEN DRIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY SO LOOKING FOR
WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING WINDS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 241120
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA EWD INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA...AND NORTHERN MANITOBA. A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED SE FROM THE MANITOBA DISTURBANCE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS INDICATED A NICE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GAVE A BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND HAS INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WERE NOTED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. VISBYS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE A MINOR ONE COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD FOG FROM 24 HRS AGO
THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS PRESENT ATTM. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 40 AT VALENTINE TO
55 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR
TODAY...THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO HIGHS TDY AS THE MAV NUMBERS ARE WARMER THAN THE MET
NUMBERS. DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET
GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD COVER TDY. THIS SEEMED TO
AGREE BETTER WITH FCST SOUNDING HIGHS WHICH RANGED FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH...TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...RIDGING
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...FORCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S FOR NORTH PLATTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN...WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL MIXING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY...WHERE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WARMER LOWER 80S ARE FORECASTED...AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MIX WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

A WARM SIGNAL IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS 2 TO 4
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR. MODELS AGREE
THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH
WESTERLY WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. TYPICALLY THIS IS A WARM SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE AIR
ALOFT /3000 TO 7000 FEET AGL/ IS WARM AND EASILY MIXED TO THE
SURFACE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DECENT FGEN BAND ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IS LIMITED...EXPECTING THAT AT LEAST
A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED 30 POPS...AS
THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO BE GIVEN THE DECENT LIFT BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THE REST OF THE
WEEKS WEATHER. NOW THE GFS IS THE WARMER MODEL AND THE ECMWF COLDER.
THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF THE WARMER SOLUTION.
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF IS A MUCH STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING BEHIND A POTENT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME COLD AIR TO
DIVE ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEEKS END. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
AON 20000 FT AGL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AON
20000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT
UNDER 10 KTS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
















000
FXUS63 KLBF 240851
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING CONTINUED TO SHOW
AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EXTENDED FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA EWD INTO
NORTHERN ALBERTA...AND NORTHERN MANITOBA. A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDED SE FROM THE MANITOBA DISTURBANCE INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. ACROSS THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
WV IMAGERY OVERNIGHT HAS INDICATED A NICE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EWD TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THIS ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO ABUNDANT
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...EWD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS GAVE A BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...AND HAS INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES WERE NOTED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. VISBYS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR
AND NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH FIELDS...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR
PATCHY FOG IN THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL
BE A MINOR ONE COMPARED TO THE WIDESPREAD FOG FROM 24 HRS AGO
THANKS TO THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDINESS PRESENT ATTM. UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 40 AT VALENTINE TO
55 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. FOR
TODAY...THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SPREAD WITH
RESPECT TO HIGHS TDY AS THE MAV NUMBERS ARE WARMER THAN THE MET
NUMBERS. DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET
GUIDANCE BASED ON EXPECTED HIGH CLOUD COVER TDY. THIS SEEMED TO
AGREE BETTER WITH FCST SOUNDING HIGHS WHICH RANGED FROM THE UPPER
70S IN THE NORTH...TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...RIDGING
WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...FORCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDINESS NORTH OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE
WEST...TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EAST. WITH LIGHT WESTERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S FOR NORTH PLATTE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN...WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL MIXING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY...WHERE
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WARMER LOWER 80S ARE FORECASTED...AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO MIX WARM
AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

A WARM SIGNAL IS SEEN FOR SUNDAY...AND HAVE WARMED HIGHS 2 TO 4
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE HWY 83 CORRIDOR. MODELS AGREE
THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH
WESTERLY WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. TYPICALLY THIS IS A WARM SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE AIR
ALOFT /3000 TO 7000 FEET AGL/ IS WARM AND EASILY MIXED TO THE
SURFACE.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A DECENT FGEN BAND ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IS LIMITED...EXPECTING THAT AT LEAST
A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED 30 POPS...AS
THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD PLACE TO BE GIVEN THE DECENT LIFT BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN THE REST OF THE
WEEKS WEATHER. NOW THE GFS IS THE WARMER MODEL AND THE ECMWF COLDER.
THIS WAS OPPOSITE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF THE WARMER SOLUTION.
THE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF IS A MUCH STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING BEHIND A POTENT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS ALLOWS FOR SOME COLD AIR TO
DIVE ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEEKS END. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST SEEM
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15KTS OR LESS. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KLBF 240524
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND BEYOND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...THEN IF ANY RECORD HIGHS WILL FALL
TOMORROW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND PUSHING
HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE HELPED MIX OUT THE LL MOISTURE FROM THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER STILL HAVE AN AREA FROM KMCK TO KBBW AND TO THE
EAST WHERE DEW PTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. WE ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FOG FORECAST.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE RICH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE ZONES...AM EXPECTING SOME FOG TO REDEVELOP.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT...NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WITH KBBW STILL SEEING A DEW PT IN
THE 50S...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS IN THE 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FOG WHERE DEW PTS STILL AROUND 50 OR
ABOVE. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE SW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
DRYING TO OCCUR AND KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DENSE...THUS WILL HAVE ONLY PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

TOMORROW A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE /CIRRUS/ IS PUSHED NORTH RESULTING WITH SUNNY SKIES.
THUS TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
DELAY IF ANY FOG LINGERS IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK MIXING. GFS IS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS MIXING TOMORROW AND AS A RESULT HAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. LATELY WE HAVE MIXED WELL AND MODELS HAVE BEEN COOL ON
HIGHS...THUS FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH SW NEB
INTO THE MID 80S. RECORDS FOR TOMORROW ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SO WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY WHICH LIMITS VERTICAL MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY RISE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF EAST INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF STRATUS FORMING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT. A LOW PRESS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD LIFT
THIS FRONT AND THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE
STRONG THERMAL FORCING AND WEST WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD
OCCUR BUT THE GUIDANCE IS LAGGING HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MANY
AREAS. COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN
AND THE MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHER THAN THE STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. A CHECK ON CIRRUS IN THE MODELS INDICATES THESE CLOUDS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS THE JET AFFECTS THAT
AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED OVER NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AND WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15KTS OR LESS. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE
OVER NIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 232347 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND BEYOND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...THEN IF ANY RECORD HIGHS WILL FALL
TOMORROW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND PUSHING
HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE HELPED MIX OUT THE LL MOISTURE FROM THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER STILL HAVE AN AREA FROM KMCK TO KBBW AND TO THE
EAST WHERE DEW PTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. WE ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FOG FORECAST.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE RICH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE ZONES...AM EXPECTING SOME FOG TO REDEVELOP.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT...NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WITH KBBW STILL SEEING A DEW PT IN
THE 50S...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS IN THE 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FOG WHERE DEW PTS STILL AROUND 50 OR
ABOVE. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE SW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
DRYING TO OCCUR AND KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DENSE...THUS WILL HAVE ONLY PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

TOMORROW A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE /CIRRUS/ IS PUSHED NORTH RESULTING WITH SUNNY SKIES.
THUS TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
DELAY IF ANY FOG LINGERS IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK MIXING. GFS IS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS MIXING TOMORROW AND AS A RESULT HAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. LATELY WE HAVE MIXED WELL AND MODELS HAVE BEEN COOL ON
HIGHS...THUS FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH SW NEB
INTO THE MID 80S. RECORDS FOR TOMORROW ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SO WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY WHICH LIMITS VERTICAL MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY RISE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF EAST INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF STRATUS FORMING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT. A LOW PRESS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD LIFT
THIS FRONT AND THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE
STRONG THERMAL FORCING AND WEST WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD
OCCUR BUT THE GUIDANCE IS LAGGING HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MANY
AREAS. COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN
AND THE MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHER THAN THE STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. A CHECK ON CIRRUS IN THE MODELS INDICATES THESE CLOUDS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS THE JET AFFECTS THAT
AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

STRATUS AND FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. SOME COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY AGAIN OVER NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT
KLBF SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 232018
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT AND A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND BEYOND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...THEN IF ANY RECORD HIGHS WILL FALL
TOMORROW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND PUSHING
HEIGHTS UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE HELPED MIX OUT THE LL MOISTURE FROM THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER STILL HAVE AN AREA FROM KMCK TO KBBW AND TO THE
EAST WHERE DEW PTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S. WE ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY FOG FORECAST.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE RICH
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE ZONES...AM EXPECTING SOME FOG TO REDEVELOP.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT WITH THE SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT...NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG...HOWEVER WITH KBBW STILL SEEING A DEW PT IN
THE 50S...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS IN THE 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR FOG WHERE DEW PTS STILL AROUND 50 OR
ABOVE. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THE SW WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
DRYING TO OCCUR AND KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD
DENSE...THUS WILL HAVE ONLY PATCHY FOG WORDING IN THE FORECAST...BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

TOMORROW A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE /CIRRUS/ IS PUSHED NORTH RESULTING WITH SUNNY SKIES.
THUS TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY CLIMB IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE A
DELAY IF ANY FOG LINGERS IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY QUICK MIXING. GFS IS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS MIXING TOMORROW AND AS A RESULT HAS THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES. LATELY WE HAVE MIXED WELL AND MODELS HAVE BEEN COOL ON
HIGHS...THUS FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH SW NEB
INTO THE MID 80S. RECORDS FOR TOMORROW ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SO WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS SATURDAY WHICH LIMITS VERTICAL MIXING ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGHS
SATURDAY RISE FROM NEAR 70 NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER READINGS IN THE SOUTH WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTN.

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF EAST INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
MODELS SHOW A BAND OF STRATUS FORMING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT. A LOW PRESS SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD LIFT
THIS FRONT AND THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE FCST AREA DURING THE MORNING
WITH LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SD DURING THE AFTN. GIVEN THE
STRONG THERMAL FORCING AND WEST WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD
OCCUR BUT THE GUIDANCE IS LAGGING HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S IN MANY
AREAS. COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTN
AND THE MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK WITH THIS FEATURE.

OTHER THAN THE STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. A CHECK ON CIRRUS IN THE MODELS INDICATES THESE CLOUDS
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS THE JET AFFECTS THAT
AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 20S IN MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GOOD MIXING TODAY
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL NOT GET TRAPPED IN
THE BL. ALL MOS GUIDANCE AND MODELS SUPPORT ONLY SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 231632
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING
PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE
VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN
FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW. BASED ON ROAD
CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR LOCATIONS
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA
TO 44 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS FINALLY LIFTING...WITH VIS SAT...SFC OBS AND WEB CAMERAS
SHOWING IMPROVING VISIBILITIES/CONDITIONS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED FOR ALL AND SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM
SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING.
DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE
FCST...TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE
TO FOG AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY.
WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME.

MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GOOD MIXING TODAY
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL NOT GET TRAPPED IN
THE BL. ALL MOS GUIDANCE AND MODELS SUPPORT ONLY SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 231131
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.

MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY THEREAFTER. VISBYS WITH FOG...WILL BE
VARIABLE...RANGING FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 230854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS
NOTED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY
UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND
ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN
BOW. BASED ON ROAD CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA TO
44 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY
LATE MORNING. DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE FCST...TRENDED HIGHS
TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE TO FOG AND EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS
TIME.

MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AREAS OF FOG WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND GENERALLY EAST
OF A NORTH PLATTE KLBF TO VALENTINE KVTN. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN KLBF
TAF SITE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM KBBW TO KONL. LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ010-
027>029-038-059-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KLBF 230539
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT SPREADS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT WILL BE OCCURRING IN
AREAS OF DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW LYING RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AREAS OF FOG WERE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND GENERALLY EAST
OF A NORTH PLATTE KLBF TO VALENTINE KVTN. HAVE INCLUDED FOG IN KLBF
TAF SITE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM KBBW TO KONL. LIGHT WINDS OVER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 230418 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1118 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT SPREADS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT WILL BE OCCURRING IN
AREAS OF DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW LYING RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 230418 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1118 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. DEW POINT SPREADS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. FOG IS NOT WIDESPREAD BUT WILL BE OCCURRING IN
AREAS OF DRAINAGE WINDS AND LOW LYING RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 222359 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 222359 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
FEW SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 222008
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALL MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
23/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM CDT...DEW POINTS IN THE
PANHANDLE REGISTERED IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
NEGATIVE MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING SHOULD DRIVE DEW POINTS INTO THE
30S AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83. HOWEVER...WITH CLEARING SKIES
LIGHTENING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND RECENT RAINFALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OR STRATUS ARISES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER.
OVERALL...WITH THE BEST PARAMETERS LYING OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA
AND LOW CONFIDENCE...LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURE WISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK EXCEPT DROPPED THE FAR
NORTHWEST A DEGREE OR TWO.

THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FARTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW 70S WHERE MORE OF A NORTHWEST REGIME AT 500HPA EXISTS COMPARED
TO ZONAL...AND DUE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING IN HIGHER
DEW POINTS. NONETHELESS...OVERALL SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
LIMITED ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA FRIDAY SETTING UP
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE SFC-700 MB LEVELS. THIS SUPPORTS DEEP MIXING
TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S COULD BE
ACHIEVED FRIDAY AS H700 MB TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS C. THERE IS A WEAK FRONT PRESSING INTO NRN NEB DURING THE
AFTN ENHANCING MIXING POTENTIAL. THE GRIDDED GFS MOS SHOWED A HIGH
OF 87F AT MOOREFIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WITH
84F AT NORTH PLATTE.

THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ROOM FOR SOME MARK UP. THE NAM GUIDANCE
SHOWED 80 AT NORTH PLATTE FRIDAY BUT THAT MODEL AND THE GFS BUFFER
SOUNDINGS SHOWED MIXING HEIGHTS OF JUST 800 MB WHICH FLIES IN THE
FACE OF THE SOUTH WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHT OF 750 MB ACHIEVED TUESDAY
FOR A HIGH OF 78 AT NORTH PLATTE.

THE MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN A
WEAK BATCH OF PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. THIS AIR
UNDERCUTS THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE. THE BEST GUESS ON MIXING AND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IS AN 800 MB MIXING HEIGHT FOR HIGHS IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTN SUPPORTING THE LOWER MIXING HEIGHT.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY CLEAR DAY AND NIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FRIDAY AFTN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE
ACTUALLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WINDS SUNDAY ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MIXING TO 750 MB AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80. THE GFS...ECM AND GEM SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB AND LOWER 70S FOR
HIGHS. SUNDAY COULD BE A WARM DAY...POSSIBLY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT...NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SPLITTING ENERGY
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND THE ROCKIES. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
SIMILAR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S MONDAY COULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS AND THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS. AS OF 12 PM CDT...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HWY 83 HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...DS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 221722
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS. AS OF 12 PM CDT...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HWY 83 HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...DS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 221722
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS. AS OF 12 PM CDT...AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HWY 83 HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND REMNANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...DS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 221110
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
610 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

EXCEPT FOR WHEN RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA CEILINGS WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 8000 FEET. IN THE BAND OF RAIN...CEILINGS OF 3000-4000 FEET
ARE LIKELY. VISIBILITY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3SM MOST AREAS THOUGH
SOME 2SM IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AFTER 00Z...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BECOME UNLIMITED.
WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL
BE LESS THAN 15KT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 220749
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MANITOBA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. IT ALSO SHOWED A PLUME OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH NEBRASKA TODAY...FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
300-308K LAYER LIFTS THE MOIST AIR INTO A LAYER OF FOLDED THETA-E
(306-315K). THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT...RAIN SHOULD HAVE NO
PROBLEM REACHING THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20MM...THE PRECIPITATION WINDOW WILL BE ONLY
ABOUT THREE HOURS THUS LIMITING TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO 0.20
INCH OR LESS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS WHERE THE HIGHEST UPWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED. IN THE
SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE
EVEN 0.10 INCH. WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING THROUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE WILL CAUSE CLEARING SKY THIS
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HOWEVER SUNDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UP UNTIL THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AS A
THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEEP MIXING TRANSPORTS
WARM AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE POSSIBLE
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM...WITH MID
40S POSSIBLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...NOTE A FEW LOWER 50S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH WILL PULL A HYBRID CANADIAN/PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE LONG
RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE WAFFLING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME.  THE COLD
FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS FALLING FROM THE LOWER
40S MONDAY MORNING BACK BELOW 32F TUESDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT AS WAS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SUGGESTED TO BE LIGHT.
ATTM...THE BEST SHOT AT QPF SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. FROPA EXPECTED AT KVTN KLBF
AROUND 22/15Z. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TRW AT KVTN WITH EVENT
LOOKING MORE LIKE SHOWERS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND FROPA AT KVTN. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 220512
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1212 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOCUS AS WE SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WITH THE
PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...AS DEW
PT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WILL HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FOG AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON FOG...HOWEVER DID SEE SOME
ACROSS WESTERN KS LAST NIGHT WHICH CREPT INTO FAR SW NEB THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO NW NEB...A BAND/BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT AROUND 100 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE POSITIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER...SO LOCALLY COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME. ALSO SEEING NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPENDING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RICH
BL MOISTURE KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...HOWEVER SOME CLEARING AND
BETTER MIXING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH FOLLOWS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CNTL
CANADA WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND MID
SINGLE DIGITS C.

TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW 700MB WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND DEEP
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA DRAWS WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE
BEST GUESS ON HIGHS FRIDAY IS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE MEX INDICATE MID 80S AND THIS COULD VERY WELL VERIFY IF
DEEP MIXING TO 700MB IS ACHIEVED DURING THE BRIEF PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE FALL. THERE IS THE HINT OF SOME MORNING STRATUS IN
THE NAM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS CUSTOMARY OF WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS
AND WINDS ARE WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING
SWEPT EAST BY AFTN AND HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY 21Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 10C SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 800 TO 750MB.

A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LEAD WAVE FOR A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACCORDING TO HPC AND THE ECM...1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

COOL WEATHER TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT NOTE THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS TIME
OF YEAR OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. FROPA EXPECTED AT KVTN KLBF
AROUND 22/15Z. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TRW AT KVTN WITH EVENT
LOOKING MORE LIKE SHOWERS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND FROPA AT KVTN. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 220512
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1212 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOCUS AS WE SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WITH THE
PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...AS DEW
PT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WILL HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FOG AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON FOG...HOWEVER DID SEE SOME
ACROSS WESTERN KS LAST NIGHT WHICH CREPT INTO FAR SW NEB THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO NW NEB...A BAND/BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT AROUND 100 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE POSITIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER...SO LOCALLY COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME. ALSO SEEING NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPENDING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RICH
BL MOISTURE KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...HOWEVER SOME CLEARING AND
BETTER MIXING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH FOLLOWS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CNTL
CANADA WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND MID
SINGLE DIGITS C.

TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW 700MB WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND DEEP
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA DRAWS WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE
BEST GUESS ON HIGHS FRIDAY IS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE MEX INDICATE MID 80S AND THIS COULD VERY WELL VERIFY IF
DEEP MIXING TO 700MB IS ACHIEVED DURING THE BRIEF PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE FALL. THERE IS THE HINT OF SOME MORNING STRATUS IN
THE NAM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS CUSTOMARY OF WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS
AND WINDS ARE WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING
SWEPT EAST BY AFTN AND HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY 21Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 10C SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 800 TO 750MB.

A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LEAD WAVE FOR A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACCORDING TO HPC AND THE ECM...1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

COOL WEATHER TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT NOTE THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS TIME
OF YEAR OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA AND
MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. FROPA EXPECTED AT KVTN KLBF
AROUND 22/15Z. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF TRW AT KVTN WITH EVENT
LOOKING MORE LIKE SHOWERS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND FROPA AT KVTN. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...SPRINGER








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