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000
FXUS63 KLBF 251115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES  ON
THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE ARE TWO THAT APPEAR TO BE OF MOST INTEREST
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. ONE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE OTHER IS A
FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE
WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
THE OTHER ARE OF INTEREST IS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE SYSTEM IN WYOMING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING...875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL DECREASE TO -3C TO
-4C. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO DAYS...THE DEEP
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY...SO IF THERE IS ANY LARGE HAIL...IT
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO
SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS.  THUS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...THEREAFTER TRENDING WARM AND DRY.

THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH  ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWING AND SOUTH...WHICH BREEDS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE POP FORECAST
LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE SAME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC UPSLOPE WILL HELP
PROMOTE QPF...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BETTER CONTRIBUTION
OF OMEGA FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
SO FOR THE FORECAST...WITH UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE POP FORECAST
LARGELY ALONE SUNDAY...BUT TRENDED BACK CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND ON MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND A RESULTANT LACK OF OMEGA LENDS A DRY
FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.

THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND LATE WEEKEND
AND ON MONDAY AT A MINIMUM WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COOL
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THERMAL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WARM THE BL THEREAFTER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING BY WARMING 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR SO
DAILY.  HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL BE PUSHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING. BY 15Z...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH A VTN-BBW-LXN LINE. CEILINGS NORTH AND EAST OF
THAT LINE ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WHILE...SOUTH
AND WEST OF THAT LINE...CEILINGS WILL BE 2000-3000 FEET AGL.

THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WEST TO INCLUDE MRR...MHN AND OGA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 251115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES  ON
THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE ARE TWO THAT APPEAR TO BE OF MOST INTEREST
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. ONE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE OTHER IS A
FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE
WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
THE OTHER ARE OF INTEREST IS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE SYSTEM IN WYOMING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING...875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL DECREASE TO -3C TO
-4C. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO DAYS...THE DEEP
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY...SO IF THERE IS ANY LARGE HAIL...IT
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO
SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS.  THUS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...THEREAFTER TRENDING WARM AND DRY.

THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH  ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWING AND SOUTH...WHICH BREEDS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE POP FORECAST
LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE SAME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC UPSLOPE WILL HELP
PROMOTE QPF...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BETTER CONTRIBUTION
OF OMEGA FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
SO FOR THE FORECAST...WITH UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE POP FORECAST
LARGELY ALONE SUNDAY...BUT TRENDED BACK CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND ON MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND A RESULTANT LACK OF OMEGA LENDS A DRY
FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.

THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND LATE WEEKEND
AND ON MONDAY AT A MINIMUM WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COOL
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THERMAL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WARM THE BL THEREAFTER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING BY WARMING 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR SO
DAILY.  HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL BE PUSHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING. BY 15Z...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH A VTN-BBW-LXN LINE. CEILINGS NORTH AND EAST OF
THAT LINE ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WHILE...SOUTH
AND WEST OF THAT LINE...CEILINGS WILL BE 2000-3000 FEET AGL.

THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WEST TO INCLUDE MRR...MHN AND OGA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251115
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES  ON
THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE ARE TWO THAT APPEAR TO BE OF MOST INTEREST
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. ONE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE OTHER IS A
FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE
WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
THE OTHER ARE OF INTEREST IS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE SYSTEM IN WYOMING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING...875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL DECREASE TO -3C TO
-4C. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO DAYS...THE DEEP
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY...SO IF THERE IS ANY LARGE HAIL...IT
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO
SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS.  THUS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...THEREAFTER TRENDING WARM AND DRY.

THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH  ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWING AND SOUTH...WHICH BREEDS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE POP FORECAST
LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE SAME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC UPSLOPE WILL HELP
PROMOTE QPF...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BETTER CONTRIBUTION
OF OMEGA FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
SO FOR THE FORECAST...WITH UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE POP FORECAST
LARGELY ALONE SUNDAY...BUT TRENDED BACK CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND ON MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND A RESULTANT LACK OF OMEGA LENDS A DRY
FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.

THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND LATE WEEKEND
AND ON MONDAY AT A MINIMUM WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COOL
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THERMAL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WARM THE BL THEREAFTER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING BY WARMING 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR SO
DAILY.  HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL BE PUSHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING. BY 15Z...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH A VTN-BBW-LXN LINE. CEILINGS NORTH AND EAST OF
THAT LINE ARE LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WHILE...SOUTH
AND WEST OF THAT LINE...CEILINGS WILL BE 2000-3000 FEET AGL.

THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WEST TO INCLUDE MRR...MHN AND OGA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 250825
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES  ON
THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE ARE TWO THAT APPEAR TO BE OF MOST INTEREST
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. ONE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE OTHER IS A
FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE
WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
THE OTHER ARE OF INTEREST IS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE SYSTEM IN WYOMING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING...875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL DECREASE TO -3C TO
-4C. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO DAYS...THE DEEP
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY...SO IF THERE IS ANY LARGE HAIL...IT
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO
SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS.  THUS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...THEREAFTER TRENDING WARM AND DRY.

THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH  ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWING AND SOUTH...WHICH BREEDS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE POP FORECAST
LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE SAME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC UPSLOPE WILL HELP
PROMOTE QPF...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BETTER CONTRIBUTION
OF OMEGA FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
SO FOR THE FORECAST...WITH UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE POP FORECAST
LARGELY ALONE SUNDAY...BUT TRENDED BACK CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND ON MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND A RESULTANT LACK OF OMEGA LENDS A DRY
FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.

THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND LATE WEEKEND
AND ON MONDAY AT A MINIMUM WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COOL
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THERMAL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WARM THE BL THEREAFTER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING BY WARMING 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR SO
DAILY.  HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL BE PUSHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB BY LATE MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10000
FT AGL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MID
LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY 10Z SATURDAY. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL BY SAT AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISBY
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB









000
FXUS63 KLBF 250825
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES  ON
THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE ARE TWO THAT APPEAR TO BE OF MOST INTEREST
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. ONE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE OTHER IS A
FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE
WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
THE OTHER ARE OF INTEREST IS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE SYSTEM IN WYOMING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING...875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL DECREASE TO -3C TO
-4C. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO DAYS...THE DEEP
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY...SO IF THERE IS ANY LARGE HAIL...IT
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO
SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS.  THUS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...THEREAFTER TRENDING WARM AND DRY.

THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH  ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWING AND SOUTH...WHICH BREEDS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE POP FORECAST
LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE SAME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC UPSLOPE WILL HELP
PROMOTE QPF...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BETTER CONTRIBUTION
OF OMEGA FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
SO FOR THE FORECAST...WITH UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE POP FORECAST
LARGELY ALONE SUNDAY...BUT TRENDED BACK CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND ON MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND A RESULTANT LACK OF OMEGA LENDS A DRY
FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.

THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND LATE WEEKEND
AND ON MONDAY AT A MINIMUM WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COOL
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THERMAL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WARM THE BL THEREAFTER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING BY WARMING 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR SO
DAILY.  HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL BE PUSHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB BY LATE MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10000
FT AGL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MID
LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY 10Z SATURDAY. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL BY SAT AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISBY
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB










000
FXUS63 KLBF 250825
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES  ON
THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE ARE TWO THAT APPEAR TO BE OF MOST INTEREST
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. ONE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE OTHER IS A
FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE
WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
THE OTHER ARE OF INTEREST IS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE SYSTEM IN WYOMING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING...875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL DECREASE TO -3C TO
-4C. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO DAYS...THE DEEP
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY...SO IF THERE IS ANY LARGE HAIL...IT
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO
SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS.  THUS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...THEREAFTER TRENDING WARM AND DRY.

THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH  ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWING AND SOUTH...WHICH BREEDS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE POP FORECAST
LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE SAME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC UPSLOPE WILL HELP
PROMOTE QPF...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BETTER CONTRIBUTION
OF OMEGA FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
SO FOR THE FORECAST...WITH UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE POP FORECAST
LARGELY ALONE SUNDAY...BUT TRENDED BACK CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND ON MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND A RESULTANT LACK OF OMEGA LENDS A DRY
FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.

THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND LATE WEEKEND
AND ON MONDAY AT A MINIMUM WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COOL
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THERMAL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WARM THE BL THEREAFTER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING BY WARMING 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR SO
DAILY.  HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL BE PUSHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB BY LATE MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10000
FT AGL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MID
LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY 10Z SATURDAY. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL BY SAT AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISBY
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB









000
FXUS63 KLBF 250825
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A NUMBER OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES  ON
THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE ARE TWO THAT APPEAR TO BE OF MOST INTEREST
FOR THE FORECAST TODAY. ONE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE OTHER IS A
FRONT AND INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THE
WYOMING SYSTEM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
WYOMING-MONTANA BORDER AND ANOTHER NORTH OF RIVERTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
THE OTHER ARE OF INTEREST IS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GRADIENT IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE SYSTEM IN WYOMING
MAKES ITS WAY INTO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING...875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES WILL DECREASE TO -3C TO
-4C. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO DAYS...THE DEEP
0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS WILL BE THE AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY...SO IF THERE IS ANY LARGE HAIL...IT
WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED. STILL...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE BREAKDOWN OF AN TRANSITORY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST.  THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO
SPREAD ATOP THE PLAINS.  THUS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...THEREAFTER TRENDING WARM AND DRY.

THE GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED OCCUR ON
SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH  ADVANCES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWING AND SOUTH...WHICH BREEDS UNCERTAINTY INTO THE POP FORECAST
LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS THE SAME
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC UPSLOPE WILL HELP
PROMOTE QPF...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A BETTER CONTRIBUTION
OF OMEGA FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
SO FOR THE FORECAST...WITH UNCERTAINTY...LEFT THE POP FORECAST
LARGELY ALONE SUNDAY...BUT TRENDED BACK CHANCES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND ON MONDAY.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND A RESULTANT LACK OF OMEGA LENDS A DRY
FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.

THE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND LATE WEEKEND
AND ON MONDAY AT A MINIMUM WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COOL
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THERMAL ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WARM THE BL THEREAFTER...WITH
TEMPERATURES RESPONDING BY WARMING 5 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR SO
DAILY.  HIGHS BY LATE WEEK WILL BE PUSHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB BY LATE MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10000
FT AGL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MID
LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY 10Z SATURDAY. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL BY SAT AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISBY
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB










000
FXUS63 KLBF 250437
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1137 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB BY LATE MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10000
FT AGL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MID
LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY 10Z SATURDAY. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL BY SAT AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISBY
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 250437
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1137 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...BROKEN MID LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB BY LATE MORNING WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 10000
FT AGL EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MID
LEVEL CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR LEVELS BY 10Z SATURDAY. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL BY SAT AFTERNOON. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISBY
EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 242326
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS WILL SET IN AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
TOWARD 11Z SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BURN OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 15000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL.
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS BURNING OFF AT THE KVTN TERMINAL IS MUCH
LESS...AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT 2500 FT AGL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 242326
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS WILL SET IN AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
TOWARD 11Z SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BURN OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 15000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL.
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS BURNING OFF AT THE KVTN TERMINAL IS MUCH
LESS...AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT 2500 FT AGL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 242326
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS WILL SET IN AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
TOWARD 11Z SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BURN OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 15000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL.
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS BURNING OFF AT THE KVTN TERMINAL IS MUCH
LESS...AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT 2500 FT AGL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 242326
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STORMS SHOULD IMPACT THE KLBF
AND KVTN TERMINALS FROM 02Z THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS WILL SET IN AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
TOWARD 11Z SATURDAY. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO BURN OFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 15000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL.
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS BURNING OFF AT THE KVTN TERMINAL IS MUCH
LESS...AND HAVE KEPT CIGS AT 2500 FT AGL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 242046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA...OTHERWISE FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS SHIFTED TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND DRIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.

STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN NEB THEN IMPACT
TO TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AT THE
TERMINALS...AND MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS. TOMORROW MORNING THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK












000
FXUS63 KLBF 242046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA...OTHERWISE FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS SHIFTED TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND DRIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.

STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN NEB THEN IMPACT
TO TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AT THE
TERMINALS...AND MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS. TOMORROW MORNING THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK











000
FXUS63 KLBF 242046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA...OTHERWISE FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS SHIFTED TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND DRIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.

STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN NEB THEN IMPACT
TO TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AT THE
TERMINALS...AND MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS. TOMORROW MORNING THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK












000
FXUS63 KLBF 242046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY...WITH A TROUGH
CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THIS SETS UP AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SFC TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ONE IS ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL S DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
TO THE WEST. A SECOND LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SW KS...WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTH INTO EASTERN TX. ALSO SEEING A WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. CLOSER TO HOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ABOUT 2 PM WITH MORE CELLS DEVELOPING SINCE THEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SO FAR LIFT IS GOOD BUT SHEAR IS MARGINAL. SO FAR
UPDRAFTS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LACK OF SHEAR THE STORMS ARE NOT ROTATING MUCH AND COLLAPSE ON
THEMSELVES. VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW NEB HAS
RESULTED IN A GOOD INVERTED V SOUNDING...THUS COULD SEE SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS. LOCALLY LARGE HAIL MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER
WITH IT FALLING PRIMARILY THROUGH THE RAIN SHAFT...RAIN WILL ASSIST
IN MELTING AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET LARGE HAIL TO THE GROUND. STORM
MOTION IS LIMITED SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND IS MOST LIKELY.

TOMORROW WILL SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT EAST WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. STILL MILD ACROSS SW NEB WITH HIGHS AROUND 70.
BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO N CENTRAL AND KEEPS HIGHS CLOSER TO
60. A BOUNDARY SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHS
PLAINS WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61 AND CHC POPS EAST
TO NEAR HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WEST OF HWY 61 SUNDAY WITH
CHC POPS EAST TO HWY 83. SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN DRY IN THE EAST. AS
NRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN
TO CHANCE AND REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES IN. CONFIDENT IS
LOW HOWEVER THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT AVBL. DRY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS
HIGHS TO LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO
THE 60S MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S
THURSDAY THEN SOME LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA...OTHERWISE FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS SHIFTED TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND DRIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.

STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN NEB THEN IMPACT
TO TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AT THE
TERMINALS...AND MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS. TOMORROW MORNING THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MASEK











000
FXUS63 KLBF 241811
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE WAS ALSO
A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT INDICATING A DRY LINE ALONG THE WYOMING
NEBRASKA BORDER INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANOTHER FRONT WAS
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EARLIER UPDATE FOR A RISE OF TEMPERATURES. SUNNY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES HAS PUSH TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE 70S. STILL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BENEATH THE THINNING LOWER/MID CLOUDS. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH 70 OR ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS AROUND THE PLAINS...THE
BIG CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE TIMING...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
LIKELY TO BE 1000-2000J/KG...SO STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT
REALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A SUFFICIENT OFFSET BETWEEN THE
UPDRAFT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHAFT. THUS LARGE HAIL IS NOT LIKELY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DRY AIR IN THE SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER
COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND
OUTFLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS TURN SOUTH ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
A FEW  THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO ISOLATED. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CARRIES MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS FARTHER EAST...HAMPERING MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND SHOWERS/RAIN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR TO THE
EAST...AND AREAS FROM AROUND ONE ILL SOUTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINKING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
ALONG HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE...AND LESS THAN THAT
OR PERHAPS NOTHING EAST OF THIS LINE.

ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK WITH A WARNING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA...OTHERWISE FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS SHIFTED TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND DRIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.


STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN NEB THEN IMPACT
TO TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AT THE
TERMINALS...AND MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS. TOMORROW MORNING THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK









000
FXUS63 KLBF 241811
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE WAS ALSO
A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT INDICATING A DRY LINE ALONG THE WYOMING
NEBRASKA BORDER INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANOTHER FRONT WAS
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EARLIER UPDATE FOR A RISE OF TEMPERATURES. SUNNY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES HAS PUSH TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE 70S. STILL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S BENEATH THE THINNING LOWER/MID CLOUDS. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REACH 70 OR ABOVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS AROUND THE PLAINS...THE
BIG CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE TIMING...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
LIKELY TO BE 1000-2000J/KG...SO STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT
REALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A SUFFICIENT OFFSET BETWEEN THE
UPDRAFT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHAFT. THUS LARGE HAIL IS NOT LIKELY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DRY AIR IN THE SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER
COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND
OUTFLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS TURN SOUTH ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
A FEW  THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO ISOLATED. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CARRIES MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS FARTHER EAST...HAMPERING MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND SHOWERS/RAIN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR TO THE
EAST...AND AREAS FROM AROUND ONE ILL SOUTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINKING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
ALONG HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE...AND LESS THAN THAT
OR PERHAPS NOTHING EAST OF THIS LINE.

ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK WITH A WARNING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SW
NEBRASKA...OTHERWISE FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
CONFIDENCE HAS SHIFTED TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND DRIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.


STILL EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN NEB THEN IMPACT
TO TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z. VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO BE
REDUCE IN THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AT THE
TERMINALS...AND MONITOR FOR AMENDMENTS. TOMORROW MORNING THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 241123
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE WAS ALSO
A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT INDICATING A DRY LINE ALONG THE WYOMING
NEBRASKA BORDER INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANOTHER FRONT WAS
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS AROUND THE PLAINS...THE
BIG CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE TIMING...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
LIKELY TO BE 1000-2000J/KG...SO STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT
REALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A SUFFICIENT OFFSET BETWEEN THE
UPDRAFT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHAFT. THUS LARGE HAIL IS NOT LIKELY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DRY AIR IN THE SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER
COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND
OUTFLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS TURN SOUTH ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
A FEW  THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO ISOLATED. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CARRIES MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS FARTHER EAST...HAMPERING MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND SHOWERS/RAIN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR TO THE
EAST...AND AREAS FROM AROUND ONE ILL SOUTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINKING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
ALONG HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE...AND LESS THAN THAT
OR PERHAPS NOTHING EAST OF THIS LINE.

ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK WITH A WARNING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH MORE OF THE AREA
AFFECTED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER A
LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EARLY AS 20Z ALONG AND WEST OF
AN IEN-IML LINE AND REACHING VTN-MHN BY 21Z AND ONL-BBW-LBF BY
23Z. HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
WIND VRB15-20G25-30KT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT DOWNBURSTS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 241123
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE WAS ALSO
A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT INDICATING A DRY LINE ALONG THE WYOMING
NEBRASKA BORDER INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANOTHER FRONT WAS
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS AROUND THE PLAINS...THE
BIG CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE TIMING...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
LIKELY TO BE 1000-2000J/KG...SO STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT
REALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A SUFFICIENT OFFSET BETWEEN THE
UPDRAFT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHAFT. THUS LARGE HAIL IS NOT LIKELY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DRY AIR IN THE SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER
COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND
OUTFLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS TURN SOUTH ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
A FEW  THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO ISOLATED. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CARRIES MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS FARTHER EAST...HAMPERING MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND SHOWERS/RAIN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR TO THE
EAST...AND AREAS FROM AROUND ONE ILL SOUTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINKING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
ALONG HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE...AND LESS THAN THAT
OR PERHAPS NOTHING EAST OF THIS LINE.

ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK WITH A WARNING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH MORE OF THE AREA
AFFECTED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER A
LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EARLY AS 20Z ALONG AND WEST OF
AN IEN-IML LINE AND REACHING VTN-MHN BY 21Z AND ONL-BBW-LBF BY
23Z. HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
WIND VRB15-20G25-30KT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT DOWNBURSTS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 241123
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE WAS ALSO
A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT INDICATING A DRY LINE ALONG THE WYOMING
NEBRASKA BORDER INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANOTHER FRONT WAS
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS AROUND THE PLAINS...THE
BIG CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE TIMING...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
LIKELY TO BE 1000-2000J/KG...SO STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT
REALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A SUFFICIENT OFFSET BETWEEN THE
UPDRAFT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHAFT. THUS LARGE HAIL IS NOT LIKELY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DRY AIR IN THE SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER
COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND
OUTFLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS TURN SOUTH ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
A FEW  THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO ISOLATED. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CARRIES MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS FARTHER EAST...HAMPERING MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND SHOWERS/RAIN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR TO THE
EAST...AND AREAS FROM AROUND ONE ILL SOUTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINKING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
ALONG HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE...AND LESS THAN THAT
OR PERHAPS NOTHING EAST OF THIS LINE.

ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK WITH A WARNING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH MORE OF THE AREA
AFFECTED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER A
LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EARLY AS 20Z ALONG AND WEST OF
AN IEN-IML LINE AND REACHING VTN-MHN BY 21Z AND ONL-BBW-LBF BY
23Z. HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY
WIND VRB15-20G25-30KT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT DOWNBURSTS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 240853
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE WAS ALSO
A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT INDICATING A DRY LINE ALONG THE WYOMING
NEBRASKA BORDER INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANOTHER FRONT WAS
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS AROUND THE PLAINS...THE
BIG CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE TIMING...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
LIKELY TO BE 1000-2000J/KG...SO STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT
REALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A SUFFICIENT OFFSET BETWEEN THE
UPDRAFT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHAFT. THUS LARGE HAIL IS NOT LIKELY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DRY AIR IN THE SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER
COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND
OUTFLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS TURN SOUTH ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
A FEW  THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO ISOLATED. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CARRIES MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS FARTHER EAST...HAMPERING MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND SHOWERS/RAIN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR TO THE
EAST...AND AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL SOUTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINKING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
ALONG HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE...AND LESS THAN THAT
OR PERHAPS NOTHING EAST OF THIS LINE.

ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK WITH A WARNING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT BOTH THE
KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 700 TO 1500 FT AGL.
LOOK FOR CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KLBF 240853
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A QUASI- STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE WAS ALSO
A SHARP DEWPOINT GRADIENT INDICATING A DRY LINE ALONG THE WYOMING
NEBRASKA BORDER INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. ANOTHER FRONT WAS
STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

WITH SEVERAL POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS AROUND THE PLAINS...THE
BIG CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE TIMING...
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY IS
LIKELY TO BE 1000-2000J/KG...SO STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY IN THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT
REALLY STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE A SUFFICIENT OFFSET BETWEEN THE
UPDRAFT AND THE PRECIPITATION SHAFT. THUS LARGE HAIL IS NOT LIKELY.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...DRY AIR IN THE SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER
COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND
OUTFLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONG CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO. WINDS TURN SOUTH ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECTING A CLOUDY
DAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
A FEW  THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WILL
KEEP THE THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO ISOLATED. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT CARRIES MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS FARTHER EAST...HAMPERING MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION. WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
MODELS INDICATE A DISTURBANCE ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER.
THIS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND SHOWERS/RAIN LOOKING QUITE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING VERY FAR TO THE
EAST...AND AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL SOUTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THINKING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
ALONG HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE...AND LESS THAN THAT
OR PERHAPS NOTHING EAST OF THIS LINE.

ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY...BUT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK WITH A WARNING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 70S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT BOTH THE
KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 700 TO 1500 FT AGL.
LOOK FOR CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 240456
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.

MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT BOTH THE
KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 700 TO 1500 FT AGL.
LOOK FOR CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 240456
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.

MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT BOTH THE
KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 700 TO 1500 FT AGL.
LOOK FOR CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 10000 TO 20000 FT AGL. FOR FRIDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 232327
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.

MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF STORMS...WILL HANDLE THE MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH A
VCTS GROUP THIS EVENING. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 700 TO 1000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL CLIMB TO MVFR AFTER MID MORNING
FRIDAY WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT THE KVTN TERMINAL WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 232327
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.

MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF STORMS...WILL HANDLE THE MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH A
VCTS GROUP THIS EVENING. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 700 TO 1000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL CLIMB TO MVFR AFTER MID MORNING
FRIDAY WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT THE KVTN TERMINAL WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 232327
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.

MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF STORMS...WILL HANDLE THE MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH A
VCTS GROUP THIS EVENING. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 700 TO 1000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL CLIMB TO MVFR AFTER MID MORNING
FRIDAY WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT THE KVTN TERMINAL WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 232327
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.

MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF STORMS...WILL HANDLE THE MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS WITH A
VCTS GROUP THIS EVENING. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...LOW CLOUDINESS
WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 700 TO 1000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL CLIMB TO MVFR AFTER MID MORNING
FRIDAY WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT THE KVTN TERMINAL WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL.
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 232021
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.

MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MORNING STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AND ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MID
AFTERNOON. NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE..AND DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WILL MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TSRA AMENDMENTS
MADE TO THE TAF IF NECESSARY.

STRATUS CLOUDS AND LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF. FURTHER NORTH...NEAR KVTN...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH THE POTENTIAL LOW CIGS FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED BKN030 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AT KVTN...HOWEVER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN














000
FXUS63 KLBF 232021
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG PV MAX SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS PATTERN WERE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL DEEPENING
OF A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WERE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTH...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE BEST CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS STORM INTENSITY...MLCAPE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL NEAR 1000 J/KG BY LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE ALSO
IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A STORM OR TWO REACHING STRONG TO
SEVERE LIMITS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
WEST OF HWY 61. THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED IS IN QUESTION DUE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH WHERE FASTER FLOW ALOFT AND
BETTER SHEAR PROFILES RESIDE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
EJECT EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL NEB...BUT BUFKIT DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THICK LOW STRATUS
IN OUR ZONES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY VISBY FIELDS IN RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR AND NAM. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY FOG
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE.

MODELS PAINT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THEIR PLACEMENT. EXPECTING
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF
A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE MUCH BETTER ENVIRONMENT WILL BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS FCST THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH TO BECOME CLOSED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED EVENT...AND
WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT...LIFT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND
UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT. WILL LIMIT HIGHEST POPS TO 40 TO
50 PERCENT EVENING AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN ZONES...WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WITH ONLY
ISOLATED EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL LESSEN POPS TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND WEST WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR
SOUTHWEST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AMPLIFIED SRLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHS PLAINS WITH CHC POPS WEST OF HWY 83...AND NO WX ACROSS THE
EAST. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE NORTH WILL LITTLE OR NOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATED CLOSED
LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE
TO KEEP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY WITH CHC POPS EAST TO VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW. AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...POPS LESSEN AND
REMAIN ONLY ACROSS THE WEST. DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COOLEST DAY LOOK TO BE SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUDINESS/SHOWERS LIMITS HIGHS TO
LOWER MID 50S WEST TO NEAR 60 EAST. HIGHS THEN WARM INTO THE 60S
MONDAY/TUESDAY...LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MORNING STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AND ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MID
AFTERNOON. NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE..AND DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WILL MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TSRA AMENDMENTS
MADE TO THE TAF IF NECESSARY.

STRATUS CLOUDS AND LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF. FURTHER NORTH...NEAR KVTN...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH THE POTENTIAL LOW CIGS FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED BKN030 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AT KVTN...HOWEVER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN















000
FXUS63 KLBF 231743
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO
LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BLENDED MICRO-WAVE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED 25MM INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 16-20MM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E
RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG
SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. THE SCENARIO THAT THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE CREATING INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LEAD WAVE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TO
SOME DEGREE STRENGTH. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EVENT...AND WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECENT INTO THE
AREA...LIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW /H500MB TEMPS NEAR -23C/ PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THAT REGION AS THIS OCCURS. TONIGHT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY AS THE LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL RESIDE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE QUICKLY...AND SO DO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MEAN IS A BIT NORTH WITH THE
CLOSED SYSTEM...MORE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. IT ALSO INDICATES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR
ANY NORTHWARD TREND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD DRY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MORNING STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AND ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MID
AFTERNOON. NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE..AND DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WILL MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TSRA AMENDMENTS
MADE TO THE TAF IF NECESSARY.

STRATUS CLOUDS AND LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF. FURTHER NORTH...NEAR KVTN...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH THE POTENTIAL LOW CIGS FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED BKN030 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AT KVTN...HOWEVER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KLBF 231743
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO
LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BLENDED MICRO-WAVE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED 25MM INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 16-20MM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E
RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG
SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. THE SCENARIO THAT THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE CREATING INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LEAD WAVE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TO
SOME DEGREE STRENGTH. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EVENT...AND WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECENT INTO THE
AREA...LIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW /H500MB TEMPS NEAR -23C/ PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THAT REGION AS THIS OCCURS. TONIGHT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY AS THE LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL RESIDE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE QUICKLY...AND SO DO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MEAN IS A BIT NORTH WITH THE
CLOSED SYSTEM...MORE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. IT ALSO INDICATES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR
ANY NORTHWARD TREND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD DRY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MORNING STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AND ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MID
AFTERNOON. NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE..AND DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WILL MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TSRA AMENDMENTS
MADE TO THE TAF IF NECESSARY.

STRATUS CLOUDS AND LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF. FURTHER NORTH...NEAR KVTN...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH THE POTENTIAL LOW CIGS FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED BKN030 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AT KVTN...HOWEVER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 231743
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO
LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BLENDED MICRO-WAVE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED 25MM INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 16-20MM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E
RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG
SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. THE SCENARIO THAT THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE CREATING INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LEAD WAVE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TO
SOME DEGREE STRENGTH. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EVENT...AND WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECENT INTO THE
AREA...LIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW /H500MB TEMPS NEAR -23C/ PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THAT REGION AS THIS OCCURS. TONIGHT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY AS THE LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL RESIDE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE QUICKLY...AND SO DO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MEAN IS A BIT NORTH WITH THE
CLOSED SYSTEM...MORE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. IT ALSO INDICATES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR
ANY NORTHWARD TREND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD DRY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MORNING STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AND ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MID
AFTERNOON. NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE..AND DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WILL MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TSRA AMENDMENTS
MADE TO THE TAF IF NECESSARY.

STRATUS CLOUDS AND LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF. FURTHER NORTH...NEAR KVTN...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH THE POTENTIAL LOW CIGS FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED BKN030 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AT KVTN...HOWEVER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN









000
FXUS63 KLBF 231743
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO
LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BLENDED MICRO-WAVE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED 25MM INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 16-20MM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E
RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG
SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. THE SCENARIO THAT THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE CREATING INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LEAD WAVE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TO
SOME DEGREE STRENGTH. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EVENT...AND WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECENT INTO THE
AREA...LIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW /H500MB TEMPS NEAR -23C/ PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THAT REGION AS THIS OCCURS. TONIGHT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY AS THE LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL RESIDE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE QUICKLY...AND SO DO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MEAN IS A BIT NORTH WITH THE
CLOSED SYSTEM...MORE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. IT ALSO INDICATES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR
ANY NORTHWARD TREND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD DRY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MORNING STRATUS DECK FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT AND ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING VFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MID
AFTERNOON. NEXT AVIATION CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR TSRA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE..AND DOES NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
TRENDS WILL MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TSRA AMENDMENTS
MADE TO THE TAF IF NECESSARY.

STRATUS CLOUDS AND LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF. FURTHER NORTH...NEAR KVTN...MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS WITH THE POTENTIAL LOW CIGS FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. INCLUDED BKN030 GROUP TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS AT KVTN...HOWEVER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 231116
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
616 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO
LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BLENDED MICRO-WAVE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED 25MM INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 16-20MM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E
RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG
SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. THE SCENARIO THAT THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE CREATING INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LEAD WAVE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TO
SOME DEGREE STRENGTH. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EVENT...AND WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECENT INTO THE
AREA...LIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW /H500MB TEMPS NEAR -23C/ PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THAT REGION AS THIS OCCURS. TONIGHT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY AS THE LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL RESIDE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE QUICKLY...AND SO DO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MEAN IS A BIT NORTH WITH THE
CLOSED SYSTEM...MORE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. IT ALSO INDICATES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR
ANY NORTHWARD TREND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD DRY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH
CEILINGS OF 1000-2000 FEET AGL. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST BUT 3-6
HOURS BEFORE THEY SCATTER OUT. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING. HOWEVER...
WITH 20-40 PERCENT COVERAGE...THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
ANY ONE SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN A TERMINAL FORECAST.

SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...
BECOMING 150-180 AT 12-16G24-28KT AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 231116
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
616 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO
LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BLENDED MICRO-WAVE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED 25MM INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 16-20MM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E
RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG
SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. THE SCENARIO THAT THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE CREATING INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LEAD WAVE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TO
SOME DEGREE STRENGTH. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EVENT...AND WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECENT INTO THE
AREA...LIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW /H500MB TEMPS NEAR -23C/ PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THAT REGION AS THIS OCCURS. TONIGHT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY AS THE LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL RESIDE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE QUICKLY...AND SO DO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MEAN IS A BIT NORTH WITH THE
CLOSED SYSTEM...MORE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. IT ALSO INDICATES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR
ANY NORTHWARD TREND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD DRY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH
CEILINGS OF 1000-2000 FEET AGL. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST BUT 3-6
HOURS BEFORE THEY SCATTER OUT. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING. HOWEVER...
WITH 20-40 PERCENT COVERAGE...THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT
ANY ONE SITE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN A TERMINAL FORECAST.

SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...
BECOMING 150-180 AT 12-16G24-28KT AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 230858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO
LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BLENDED MICRO-WAVE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED 25MM INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 16-20MM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E
RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG
SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. THE SCENARIO THAT THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE CREATING INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LEAD WAVE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TO
SOME DEGREE STRENGTH. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EVENT...AND WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECENT INTO THE
AREA...LIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW /H500MB TEMPS NEAR -23C/ PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THAT REGION AS THIS OCCURS. TONIGHT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY AS THE LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL RESIDE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE QUICKLY...AND SO DO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MEAN IS A BIT NORTH WITH THE
CLOSED SYSTEM...MORE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. IT ALSO INDICATES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR
ANY NORTHWARD TREND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD DRY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CIGS WILL FALL
TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THURSDAY
MORNING...WHILE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AT THE
KVTN TERMINAL. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY IMPACT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS DURING THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE...WILL POST A PROB30
GROUP FOR EACH TERMINAL THURSDAY EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB






000
FXUS63 KLBF 230858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA INDICATED LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO NORTH OF DENVER AND IN NORTHERN WYOMING NORTH OF RIVERTON.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM THE COLORADO
LOW AND A DRY LINE COULD BE SEEN FROM THE LOW THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BLENDED MICRO-WAVE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED 25MM INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND 16-20MM IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION. PROJECTION OF THE 0-2KM THETA-E SHOWS A THETA-E
RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN BIG
SPRINGS NEBRASKA AND STERLING COLORADO. THE SCENARIO THAT THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE CREATING INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...
IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS LEAD WAVE IN TERMS OF TIMING AND TO
SOME DEGREE STRENGTH. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A RATHER DISORGANIZED
EVENT...AND WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DECENT INTO THE
AREA...LIFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND UNFOCUSED. THIS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST A SHOWERY AND UNORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE LIKELY RANGE DUE TO
QUESTIONS ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT...SO
THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A STRONG
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW /H500MB TEMPS NEAR -23C/ PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP IN THAT REGION AS THIS OCCURS. TONIGHT THE GFS
ENSEMBLE...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INITIALLY AS THE LOW IS DROPPING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT
WILL RESIDE SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT DECREASE QUICKLY...AND SO DO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE SREF MEAN IS A BIT NORTH WITH THE
CLOSED SYSTEM...MORE ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. IT ALSO INDICATES A
NEGATIVE TILT AND PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY. THIS SEEMS TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER...BUT WILL
DEFINITELY WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS FOR
ANY NORTHWARD TREND. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD DRY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHERN
TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CIGS WILL FALL
TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THURSDAY
MORNING...WHILE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AT THE
KVTN TERMINAL. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY IMPACT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS DURING THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE...WILL POST A PROB30
GROUP FOR EACH TERMINAL THURSDAY EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB





000
FXUS63 KLBF 230442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE TOP OF ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.

CLOSER TO THE CWA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF A DRY
AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. AS OF 20Z AN AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TONIGHT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN NORTHWEST KS WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST...AND
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
AS MUCH AS 5C SPREAD IN THE 0.5 KM DEWPOINT FIELDS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE HANDLING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK THIS EVENING. A MODEL BLEND FALLS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST SREF SOLUTION WHICH STILL SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF A
STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HWY 83. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF CO WILL MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SPRINKLES IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPANDING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY HINDER SFC TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING IN BL AND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
TEMPERATURES STILL MAKE IT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST OF OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TRIMMED BACK AND SLOWED DOWN THE INHERITED POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST QPF WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL IN THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST CO WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AN UPPER LONG WAVE LOCATED FROM SRN CALIF INTO WRN UTAH THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND HAVE HELD HIGHEST POPS THROUGH FRIDAY TO
40 PERCENT. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MORNING STRATUS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...A FEW
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CLOSE THE SYSTEM OVER ACROSS
NEBR/KS. DID INCREASE POP THEN TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. ON
SATURDAY...WRN NEBR WILL BECOME IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HEIGHT
CLOSES OFF A LOW EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
IS SOUTHEAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW EAST ACROSS OKLA
WHILE THE ECMWF EAST ACROSS NRN TX. THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT
WHICH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. POPS LOWER CONSIDERABLY AS
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TO OUR SOUTH AND WRN NEBR REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LOOK TO RANGE AROUND 60 WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CIGS WILL FALL
TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THURSDAY
MORNING...WHILE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AT THE
KVTN TERMINAL. IN ADDITION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY EVENING AND MAY IMPACT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS DURING THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE...WILL POST A PROB30
GROUP FOR EACH TERMINAL THURSDAY EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 222315
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE TOP OF ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.

CLOSER TO THE CWA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF A DRY
AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. AS OF 20Z AN AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TONIGHT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN NORTHWEST KS WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST...AND
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
AS MUCH AS 5C SPREAD IN THE 0.5 KM DEWPOINT FIELDS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE HANDLING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK THIS EVENING. A MODEL BLEND FALLS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST SREF SOLUTION WHICH STILL SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF A
STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HWY 83. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF CO WILL MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SPRINKLES IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPANDING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY HINDER SFC TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING IN BL AND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
TEMPERATURES STILL MAKE IT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST OF OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TRIMMED BACK AND SLOWED DOWN THE INHERITED POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST QPF WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL IN THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST CO WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AN UPPER LONG WAVE LOCATED FROM SRN CALIF INTO WRN UTAH THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND HAVE HELD HIGHEST POPS THROUGH FRIDAY TO
40 PERCENT. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MORNING STRATUS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...A FEW
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CLOSE THE SYSTEM OVER ACROSS
NEBR/KS. DID INCREASE POP THEN TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. ON
SATURDAY...WRN NEBR WILL BECOME IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HEIGHT
CLOSES OFF A LOW EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
IS SOUTHEAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW EAST ACROSS OKLA
WHILE THE ECMWF EAST ACROSS NRN TX. THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT
WHICH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. POPS LOWER CONSIDERABLY AS
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TO OUR SOUTH AND WRN NEBR REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LOOK TO RANGE AROUND 60 WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
BY 12Z THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS
OF 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD OVER AT THE KVTN TERMINAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS OF 5000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 222315
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE TOP OF ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.

CLOSER TO THE CWA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF A DRY
AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. AS OF 20Z AN AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TONIGHT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN NORTHWEST KS WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST...AND
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
AS MUCH AS 5C SPREAD IN THE 0.5 KM DEWPOINT FIELDS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE HANDLING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK THIS EVENING. A MODEL BLEND FALLS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST SREF SOLUTION WHICH STILL SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF A
STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HWY 83. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF CO WILL MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SPRINKLES IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPANDING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY HINDER SFC TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING IN BL AND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
TEMPERATURES STILL MAKE IT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST OF OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TRIMMED BACK AND SLOWED DOWN THE INHERITED POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST QPF WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL IN THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST CO WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AN UPPER LONG WAVE LOCATED FROM SRN CALIF INTO WRN UTAH THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND HAVE HELD HIGHEST POPS THROUGH FRIDAY TO
40 PERCENT. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MORNING STRATUS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...A FEW
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CLOSE THE SYSTEM OVER ACROSS
NEBR/KS. DID INCREASE POP THEN TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. ON
SATURDAY...WRN NEBR WILL BECOME IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HEIGHT
CLOSES OFF A LOW EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
IS SOUTHEAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW EAST ACROSS OKLA
WHILE THE ECMWF EAST ACROSS NRN TX. THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT
WHICH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. POPS LOWER CONSIDERABLY AS
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TO OUR SOUTH AND WRN NEBR REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LOOK TO RANGE AROUND 60 WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
BY 12Z THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS
OF 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD OVER AT THE KVTN TERMINAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS OF 5000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 222315
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE TOP OF ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.

CLOSER TO THE CWA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF A DRY
AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. AS OF 20Z AN AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TONIGHT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN NORTHWEST KS WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST...AND
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
AS MUCH AS 5C SPREAD IN THE 0.5 KM DEWPOINT FIELDS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE HANDLING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK THIS EVENING. A MODEL BLEND FALLS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST SREF SOLUTION WHICH STILL SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF A
STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HWY 83. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF CO WILL MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SPRINKLES IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPANDING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY HINDER SFC TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING IN BL AND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
TEMPERATURES STILL MAKE IT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST OF OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TRIMMED BACK AND SLOWED DOWN THE INHERITED POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST QPF WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL IN THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST CO WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AN UPPER LONG WAVE LOCATED FROM SRN CALIF INTO WRN UTAH THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND HAVE HELD HIGHEST POPS THROUGH FRIDAY TO
40 PERCENT. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MORNING STRATUS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...A FEW
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CLOSE THE SYSTEM OVER ACROSS
NEBR/KS. DID INCREASE POP THEN TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. ON
SATURDAY...WRN NEBR WILL BECOME IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HEIGHT
CLOSES OFF A LOW EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
IS SOUTHEAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW EAST ACROSS OKLA
WHILE THE ECMWF EAST ACROSS NRN TX. THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT
WHICH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. POPS LOWER CONSIDERABLY AS
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TO OUR SOUTH AND WRN NEBR REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LOOK TO RANGE AROUND 60 WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
BY 12Z THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS
OF 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD OVER AT THE KVTN TERMINAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS OF 5000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 222315
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE TOP OF ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.

CLOSER TO THE CWA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF A DRY
AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. AS OF 20Z AN AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TONIGHT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN NORTHWEST KS WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST...AND
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
AS MUCH AS 5C SPREAD IN THE 0.5 KM DEWPOINT FIELDS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE HANDLING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK THIS EVENING. A MODEL BLEND FALLS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST SREF SOLUTION WHICH STILL SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF A
STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HWY 83. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF CO WILL MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SPRINKLES IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPANDING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY HINDER SFC TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING IN BL AND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
TEMPERATURES STILL MAKE IT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST OF OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TRIMMED BACK AND SLOWED DOWN THE INHERITED POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST QPF WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL IN THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST CO WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AN UPPER LONG WAVE LOCATED FROM SRN CALIF INTO WRN UTAH THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND HAVE HELD HIGHEST POPS THROUGH FRIDAY TO
40 PERCENT. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MORNING STRATUS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...A FEW
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CLOSE THE SYSTEM OVER ACROSS
NEBR/KS. DID INCREASE POP THEN TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. ON
SATURDAY...WRN NEBR WILL BECOME IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HEIGHT
CLOSES OFF A LOW EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
IS SOUTHEAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW EAST ACROSS OKLA
WHILE THE ECMWF EAST ACROSS NRN TX. THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT
WHICH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. POPS LOWER CONSIDERABLY AS
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TO OUR SOUTH AND WRN NEBR REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LOOK TO RANGE AROUND 60 WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
BY 12Z THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS
OF 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD OVER AT THE KVTN TERMINAL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS OF 5000 FT AGL POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KTS THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 222012
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
312 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. FURTHER
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
OVER THE TOP OF ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.

CLOSER TO THE CWA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF A DRY
AIR MASS AND DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. AS OF 20Z AN AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO
15 MPH TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. TONIGHT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED IN NORTHWEST KS WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST...AND
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE
HIGH PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
AS MUCH AS 5C SPREAD IN THE 0.5 KM DEWPOINT FIELDS OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE HANDLING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION GENERATED OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK THIS EVENING. A MODEL BLEND FALLS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST SREF SOLUTION WHICH STILL SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITY OF A
STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF HWY 83. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF CO WILL MAY
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SPRINKLES IN THIS VICINITY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER EXPANDING CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY HINDER SFC TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING IN BL AND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
TEMPERATURES STILL MAKE IT TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EAST OF OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. TRIMMED BACK AND SLOWED DOWN THE INHERITED POPS FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP MOST QPF WEST OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL IN THE PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST CO WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY RESIDES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

AN UPPER LONG WAVE LOCATED FROM SRN CALIF INTO WRN UTAH THURSDAY
EVENING WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WEAK LEAD DISTURBANCE. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS REMAIN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND HAVE HELD HIGHEST POPS THROUGH FRIDAY TO
40 PERCENT. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH MORNING STRATUS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF. AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...A FEW
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CLOSE THE SYSTEM OVER ACROSS
NEBR/KS. DID INCREASE POP THEN TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. ON
SATURDAY...WRN NEBR WILL BECOME IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN H5 HEIGHT
CLOSES OFF A LOW EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE ECMWF
IS SOUTHEAST. THE GFS ENSEMBLE TRACK THE LOW EAST ACROSS OKLA
WHILE THE ECMWF EAST ACROSS NRN TX. THE HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT
WHICH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. POPS LOWER CONSIDERABLY AS
CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST TO OUR SOUTH AND WRN NEBR REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LOOK TO RANGE AROUND 60 WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BY
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS
THE CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST AND
SOUTH OF KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 221727
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA TO THE
MISSOURI BASIN DRIFTS EAST TODAY SETTING UP A COOL SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW FROM KANSAS. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WRN NEB WHICH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
MODEL SUGGESTS A NARROW MIDLEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL DEVELOP NEAR
VALENTINE TONIGHT WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...LESS SO BY
THE OTHER MODELS. THE OBVIOUS CULPRIT IS 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE FORECAST IS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO NEAR FREEZING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A SUNRISE SURPRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPING WITH THE ONSET OF MIXING AFTER SUNRISE. A SLIGHT DELAY
OF 3 HOURS IN THE MOISTURE RETURN WOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
HEATING AND MIXING TO PRECLUDE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...IF
THE MODELS ARE TOO SLOW THEN CLOUDS COULD FORM BEFORE SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM
THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND HAVE PUT THE BREAKS
ON THE POPS. WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE MOST PART.
LIFT IS MARGINAL AND NOT ORGANIZED IN ANY ONE AREA...SO THINKING A
MORE SHOWERY TYPE RAIN WILL OCCUR. ACTUALLY KIND OF HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACTLY WHERE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WOULD LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THEN LATER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
COLORADO...AS CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE LEADING TO A
SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY THE
ACTUAL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE REAL ORGANIZED...AND CAN/T JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS AT ANY
ONE LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS RATHER INTERESTING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY
LOOKING TO BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. TRIED TO LIMIT POPS TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS REASON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE MODELS DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE IT
SHOULD CLOSE OFF. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ON THIS OCCURRING...AND BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DIG THE SYSTEM SOUTH INTO TEXAS LEAVING US WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
FARTHER NORTH...AND HAVE A CLOSED H700MB LOW CENTER IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO THEY HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS...NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. OVERALL THIS STRONG CLOSED SYSTEM IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE TONIGHT...AND WON/T GET CARRIED AWAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES JUST YET. ALSO TONIGHT/S SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT
SLOWER...SO THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS
THE CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST AND
SOUTH OF KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 221727
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1227 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA TO THE
MISSOURI BASIN DRIFTS EAST TODAY SETTING UP A COOL SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW FROM KANSAS. THE RAP MODEL INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WRN NEB WHICH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
MODEL SUGGESTS A NARROW MIDLEVEL CLOUD SHIELD WILL DEVELOP NEAR
VALENTINE TONIGHT WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...LESS SO BY
THE OTHER MODELS. THE OBVIOUS CULPRIT IS 700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE FORECAST IS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S TO NEAR FREEZING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A SUNRISE SURPRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPING WITH THE ONSET OF MIXING AFTER SUNRISE. A SLIGHT DELAY
OF 3 HOURS IN THE MOISTURE RETURN WOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
HEATING AND MIXING TO PRECLUDE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...IF
THE MODELS ARE TOO SLOW THEN CLOUDS COULD FORM BEFORE SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM
THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS
FEATURE COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...AND HAVE PUT THE BREAKS
ON THE POPS. WILL LEAVE IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE MOST PART.
LIFT IS MARGINAL AND NOT ORGANIZED IN ANY ONE AREA...SO THINKING A
MORE SHOWERY TYPE RAIN WILL OCCUR. ACTUALLY KIND OF HARD TO PIN DOWN
EXACTLY WHERE...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WOULD LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THEN LATER IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
COLORADO...AS CONDITIONS BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE LEADING TO A
SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY THE
ACTUAL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. THESE
STORMS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT DO EXPECT AT
LEAST SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...DOESN/T
APPEAR TO BE REAL ORGANIZED...AND CAN/T JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS AT ANY
ONE LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS RATHER INTERESTING.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. SATURDAY
LOOKING TO BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. TRIED TO LIMIT POPS TO JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS REASON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THE MODELS DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE IT
SHOULD CLOSE OFF. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ON THIS OCCURRING...AND BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DIG THE SYSTEM SOUTH INTO TEXAS LEAVING US WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE OTHER HAND ARE
FARTHER NORTH...AND HAVE A CLOSED H700MB LOW CENTER IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO THEY HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS...NORTH AND WEST ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. OVERALL THIS STRONG CLOSED SYSTEM IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT
IN THE MODELS/ENSEMBLE TONIGHT...AND WON/T GET CARRIED AWAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES JUST YET. ALSO TONIGHT/S SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT
SLOWER...SO THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS
THE CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER TOMORROW MORNING...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST AND
SOUTH OF KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN








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