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000
FXUS63 KLBF 292045
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE SHOWN A
DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF
LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES AS AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE CWA...ALBEIT MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE FROPA SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH NO NET MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT A SIMILAR DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE TOMORROW. MIXING UP TO 700MB WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S..AND DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN TODAY WITH 700MB WINDS ONLY AROUND 25 KTS. EVEN USING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD NOT GET STRONG ENOUGH WINDS
TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY REEVALUATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE HEAT BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ON THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE WARMS FROM AROUND 12 TO 20
DEGREES CELCIUS RESPECTIVELY FOR A WARM START TO THE WEEK. FEW
CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP FIRE RELATED CONCERNS GOING
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM THROUGH FASTER SO LOW POPS AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WHERE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEB WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TAKE A SHARP DIVE THAT WILL RESULT IN
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION THAT TRANSITIONS OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO COOL WHERE THE EASTERN EXTENT FOR SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD SHIFT FURTHER EAST GOING
FORWARD.

FRIDAY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH CLEARING AND HIGHS INTO THE 60S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...KECK












000
FXUS63 KLBF 292045
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE SHOWN A
DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF
LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES AS AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE CWA...ALBEIT MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE FROPA SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH NO NET MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT A SIMILAR DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE TOMORROW. MIXING UP TO 700MB WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S..AND DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN TODAY WITH 700MB WINDS ONLY AROUND 25 KTS. EVEN USING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD NOT GET STRONG ENOUGH WINDS
TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY REEVALUATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE HEAT BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ON THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE WARMS FROM AROUND 12 TO 20
DEGREES CELCIUS RESPECTIVELY FOR A WARM START TO THE WEEK. FEW
CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP FIRE RELATED CONCERNS GOING
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM THROUGH FASTER SO LOW POPS AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WHERE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEB WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TAKE A SHARP DIVE THAT WILL RESULT IN
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION THAT TRANSITIONS OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO COOL WHERE THE EASTERN EXTENT FOR SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD SHIFT FURTHER EAST GOING
FORWARD.

FRIDAY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH CLEARING AND HIGHS INTO THE 60S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...KECK











000
FXUS63 KLBF 292045
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN PARTS OF THE
CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. HOWEVER THE WINDS HAVE SHOWN A
DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF
LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES AS AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY. A WEAK PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE CWA...ALBEIT MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE FROPA SEEN SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH NO NET MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT A SIMILAR DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE TOMORROW. MIXING UP TO 700MB WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S..AND DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT
DURING PEAK HEATING. EVEN WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER THAN TODAY WITH 700MB WINDS ONLY AROUND 25 KTS. EVEN USING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD NOT GET STRONG ENOUGH WINDS
TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY REEVALUATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE HEAT BUILDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ON THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE WARMS FROM AROUND 12 TO 20
DEGREES CELCIUS RESPECTIVELY FOR A WARM START TO THE WEEK. FEW
CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR WILL KEEP FIRE RELATED CONCERNS GOING
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL. THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE MOVED
THE SYSTEM THROUGH FASTER SO LOW POPS AT BEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...WHERE INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEB WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES TAKE A SHARP DIVE THAT WILL RESULT IN
A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION THAT TRANSITIONS OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE H850 TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO COOL WHERE THE EASTERN EXTENT FOR SNOW DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD SHIFT FURTHER EAST GOING
FORWARD.

FRIDAY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH CLEARING AND HIGHS INTO THE 60S SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...KECK












000
FXUS63 KLBF 291718
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC











000
FXUS63 KLBF 291718
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC










000
FXUS63 KLBF 291718
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC











000
FXUS63 KLBF 291718
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONTINUE FOR TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TO OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC










000
FXUS63 KLBF 291115 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL COLD WILL SWEEP THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME 32028G40KT THIS
MORNING AND SUBSIDE TO 32018G30KT AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN. THE AREA
MOST IMPACTED WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KIEN TO KLBF
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EASTWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 291115 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL COLD WILL SWEEP THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME 32028G40KT THIS
MORNING AND SUBSIDE TO 32018G30KT AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN. THE AREA
MOST IMPACTED WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KIEN TO KLBF
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EASTWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291115 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL COLD WILL SWEEP THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME 32028G40KT THIS
MORNING AND SUBSIDE TO 32018G30KT AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN. THE AREA
MOST IMPACTED WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KIEN TO KLBF
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EASTWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 291115 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL COLD WILL SWEEP THROUGH PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME 32028G40KT THIS
MORNING AND SUBSIDE TO 32018G30KT AROUND 21Z THIS AFTN. THE AREA
MOST IMPACTED WILL GENERALLY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KIEN TO KLBF
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS EASTWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290840
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CDC









000
FXUS63 KLBF 290840
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290840
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290840
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE HRRR...RAP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
STRONG WINDS ACROSS WRN SD WILL MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND
THEN WEAKEN IN THE AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTN AND FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON
SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTH WIND CIRCULATION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE
THREAT OF LARGE RANGE FIRE SPREAD.  THE UPPER LEVEL PATTER FAVORS
THE FURTHER EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER BY LATE TUESDAY THE INITIAL
BREAKDOWN OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A TROUGH ADVANCES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE TROUGH CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW...AND ADVANCES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER.  IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...THE TYPICAL THERMAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WITH
20C OR GREATER /AT H85/ SHOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HEART
OF THE SANDHILLS.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS POINT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...AS THE MODELS ARE KEYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  SO DESPITE WARM DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...FIRE HEADLINES ARE NOT CERTAIN
/WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE WIND FORECAST PANS OUT/.  WEDNESDAY IS
INTERESTING.  THE MODELS ARE FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.  HOWEVER
THE MODEL TREND OF THIS FRONT HAS SLOWED WITH RECENT RUNS.  WOULD
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE ALLOWING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO BE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING FOR PEAK HEATING.  IN
ADDITION...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FURTHER AND RH PLUMMET...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWITCH. AS A SIDE NOTE...PRESSURE RISES WITH THE
FRONT WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF RFW WIND CRITERIA.   SO FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND GO AHEAD AND PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE
CAN RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL...BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE WOULD ARRIVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE CR_INT BLEND PRODUCED AN AREA OF POPS
/THUNDER/ ACROSS OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.  WOULD POSSIBLY
BE CONCERNED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  SPLIT TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR
LATE WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN AREA OF
WIDESPREAD QPF WITHIN THE REGION.  HOWEVER WHERE THE BEST
INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY SINCE
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS POOR.  AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEEK /IN PROXIMITY WITH THE
BETTER JET SUPPORT & MOISTURE/...WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP
INHERITED/CR_INT FORECAST POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS.
BEYOND LATE WEEK...A BROAD TRANSITORY RIDGE WOULD THEN BE EXPECTED.
SO AFTER A BRIEF COOLDOWN...TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM AND THE
TROPOSPHERE WOULD DRY FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

KEITH COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS A LARGE FIRE ENTERING
NORTHERN KEITH COUNTY THIS MORNING. THIS FIRE BEGAN SHORTLY BEFORE
11 PM CDT BETWEEN ARTHUR AND TRYON NEAR THE ARTHUR MCPHERSON COUNTY
LINE. THE HRRR MODEL WIND GUST PRODUCT INDICATES SPORADIC GUSTS TO
45 MPH THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR BENDING AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 30 TO 35 MPH BY 10 AM
MDT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS NCNTL NEB FROM 10 AM CDT THROUGH 3 PM MDT TODAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS ARE DRIVING THE RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...THE NIOBRARA VALLEY AND LOUP
RIVER BASINS.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER SHOULD CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AND THE LOESS PLAINS
MIGHT NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING GIVEN THIS AREA WOULD
BE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY.

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WOULD HAVE THE LOWEST HUMIDITY WHILE WEDNESDAY
SHOWS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...CDC









000
FXUS63 KLBF 290453
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290453
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290453
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290453
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1153 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SOME SCATTERED CIGS RANGING FROM 12000 TO 20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290448
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290448
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1148 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH 3 AM CDT (2 AM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STILL
REMAIN LOW ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY LIGHTNING WHICH HAS
OCCURRED WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS ON RADAR RECENTLY. THIS COUPLED
WITH A COLD FROPA AND SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WARRANT
EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WILL EXAMINE THE SITUATION
AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND EITHER LET THE WARNING END OR
EXTEND IT FURTHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290210
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
910 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290210
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
910 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

JUST EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE PANHANDLE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT). RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEGUN TO
RECOVER TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 204 OVER THE LAST
HOUR. HOWEVER...AM REAL CONCERNED ABOUT THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
FEATURE. THE LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL WELL UP TO
45 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING PLOTS OVER THE PAST 15 TO 30 MINS...SHOW SOME LIGHTNING
OVER MORRILL COUNTY. WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH BASED NATURE OF STORMS
TONIGHT...PER THE 00Z LBF RAOB SOUNDING...DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL. NEW ZONES WILL BE RELEASED SHORTLY AS WELL AND THE
PUBLIC FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 282331
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282331
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 05Z TO 09Z TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS
AROUND 10000 FT AGL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST BY MID EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KTS
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282050
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WITH VCTS ENTERED FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL BETWEEN 05Z TO
09Z. OTHERWISE FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...KECK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 282050
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLE JUST WEST OF
HWY 83. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID EVENING
FOR FIRE ZONE 204 IN THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 PERCENT WITH
THE RED FLAG WARNING. HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH MAY SPARK OFF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT AND QPF.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN GUSTY WINDS
AS H85 WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING GIVEN THE DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
SLIM.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS PRESSURE RISES
CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT REMAINS QUITE WARM AND WILL BE WELL MIXED BY DEEP
UNIDIRCTIONAL WINDS...SO STILL EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARDS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST. ON TUESDAY THE FIRE DANGER WILL
BE CRITICAL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OCCURS
IN THE WEST...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR HEADLINES WHICH COULD CHANGE GOING FORWARD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST BY NOONTIME WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIMIT GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT TO IMPERIAL. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE HIGH BASED AGAIN AND LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TO REACH THE GROUND.

AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES A DISTURBANCE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAT COULD BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL INTO THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AFTER THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DECREASES FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST
FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WITH VCTS ENTERED FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL BETWEEN 05Z TO
09Z. OTHERWISE FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...KECK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 281739
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.

WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WITH VCTS ENTERED FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL BETWEEN 05Z TO
09Z. OTHERWISE FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281739
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.

WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WITH VCTS ENTERED FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL BETWEEN 05Z TO
09Z. OTHERWISE FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281739
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.

WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WITH VCTS ENTERED FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL BETWEEN 05Z TO
09Z. OTHERWISE FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...KECK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281120 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.

WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS IDAHO WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND
NCNTL NEB TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY FROM KIML-KVTN AND EAST BETWEEN
03Z-09Z. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 45KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281120 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.

WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS IDAHO WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND
NCNTL NEB TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY FROM KIML-KVTN AND EAST BETWEEN
03Z-09Z. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 45KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281120 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.

WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS IDAHO WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND
NCNTL NEB TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY FROM KIML-KVTN AND EAST BETWEEN
03Z-09Z. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 45KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281120 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.

WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS IDAHO WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN AND
NCNTL NEB TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY FROM KIML-KVTN AND EAST BETWEEN
03Z-09Z. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 45KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 280908
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS ACROSS ERN OR/WA
AT 06Z AND THE MODELS BRING THAT FRONT THROUGH THE FCST LATE
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A SURGE OF VERY WARM DRY MOVES INTO WRN
NEB WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 4-7C SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSE
TO 80F.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH K INDICES 30 TO 35C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH BASED
TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AROUND 60KT AT
500MB. THERE IS ALSO A 1.5 PV PRESSURE ANOMALY NEAR 450MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.

LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE UPCOMING PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SPREADS
ACROSS THE MODELS BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
THEY START HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF SPECIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE PASSED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING TO HELP TRANSPORT
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL
MIXED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AS 850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 45-50KTS. NOT TERRIBLY
CONFIDENT ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE YET BUT DID CONTINUE WITH
THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR HIGHER WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HAVE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BE CLOSER
TO THE PRIMARY PV ANOMALY PASSING ACROSS MINNESOTA. AGAIN...THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...FURTHER
WEAKENING THE WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES OUT FOR AN EXPECTED COOL
NIGHT DESPITE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT.

WARM AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ON MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 11C AND 16C. ONE CONCERN WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS THAT AS THE MODELS MOVE THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO HAVE A BIT
OF A QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX TO BRING
DOWN THE MUCH WARMER AIR. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST PLACES. AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO HELP DROP
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
TAKES OVER AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 19-20C OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DON/T LOOK OVERLY
STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP MIX TO AT LEAST
750MB...BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE
40S. THEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE MODELS ARE PULLING DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT ROBUST...THE
ECMWF BRINGS 50-55 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP INTO NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH LOWER MOISTURE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS DON/T HAVE GOOD
TIMING CURRENTLY FOR THESE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...AS IT MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY PEAK
HEATING SUGGESTING INITIATION EAST OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AGAIN...BEYOND THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE MODELS WANT TO
KEEP THE PATTERN QUITE ACTIVE AND ATTEMPTING TO BREAK DOWN THE WEST
COAST RIDGE. NOT REAL CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL IN FACT OCCUR...AND
ALSO...THE MODELS ARE THEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH TIMING THESE
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE SYSTEMS DO
LOOK QUITE POTENT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURE
TREND GOING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL
EVERY FEW DAYS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND WITH THE STRONGER
SYSTEMS MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SNOW IN SOME AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER DON/T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE ANY CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
IEN-OGA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
AN ONL-IML LINE. ONLY ONE MODEL OF TWO SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF.

WIND WILL CONTINUE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING THOUGH...WIND WILL TURN MORE TO 160-190 AT
12-14G19-22KT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A CHECK ON THE 06Z RAP SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THE ERN
PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT ONE ZONE. HUMIDITY
IS LOW ACROSS THE FRENCHMAN BASIN ALSO BUT THE WIND CRITERIA IS
ABSENT. THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS WOULD MORE LIKELY AFFECT THE NRN
HALF OF THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH MARGINAL BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FARTHER SOUTH.

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC









000
FXUS63 KLBF 280431
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
IEN-OGA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
AN ONL-IML LINE. ONLY ONE MODEL OF TWO SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF.

WIND WILL CONTINUE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING THOUGH...WIND WILL TURN MORE TO 160-190 AT
12-14G19-22KT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 280431
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
IEN-OGA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
AN ONL-IML LINE. ONLY ONE MODEL OF TWO SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF.

WIND WILL CONTINUE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING THOUGH...WIND WILL TURN MORE TO 160-190 AT
12-14G19-22KT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 280431
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
IEN-OGA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
AN ONL-IML LINE. ONLY ONE MODEL OF TWO SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF.

WIND WILL CONTINUE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING THOUGH...WIND WILL TURN MORE TO 160-190 AT
12-14G19-22KT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 280431
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1131 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z...CONVERGENCE ALONG
A SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
IEN-OGA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
AN ONL-IML LINE. ONLY ONE MODEL OF TWO SHOWS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
INSPIRE CONFIDENCE IN INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF.

WIND WILL CONTINUE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5KT OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE MORNING THOUGH...WIND WILL TURN MORE TO 160-190 AT
12-14G19-22KT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 272312
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
612 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET AND A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKY AFTER 02Z.

WIND 340-020 AT 12KT WILL BECOME VRB06KT AFTER 02Z...THEN WIND
WILL BECOME 180-220 AT 12-14G18-22KT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 272312
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
612 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET AND A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKY AFTER 02Z.

WIND 340-020 AT 12KT WILL BECOME VRB06KT AFTER 02Z...THEN WIND
WILL BECOME 180-220 AT 12-14G18-22KT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 272312
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
612 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET AND A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKY AFTER 02Z.

WIND 340-020 AT 12KT WILL BECOME VRB06KT AFTER 02Z...THEN WIND
WILL BECOME 180-220 AT 12-14G18-22KT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 272312
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
612 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET AND A FEW VERY LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKY AFTER 02Z.

WIND 340-020 AT 12KT WILL BECOME VRB06KT AFTER 02Z...THEN WIND
WILL BECOME 180-220 AT 12-14G18-22KT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 272028
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCT VFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
EXPECTING VFR/MVFR STRATUS. CIGS GENERALLY IN THE OVC015 TO OVC035
RANGE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXPECTING BKN TO SCT CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB. BEHIND THE FRONT AN ABRUPT
CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
DUE TO DECOUPLING OF THE BL. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICKUP OUT OF
THE SW.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 272028
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCT VFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
EXPECTING VFR/MVFR STRATUS. CIGS GENERALLY IN THE OVC015 TO OVC035
RANGE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXPECTING BKN TO SCT CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB. BEHIND THE FRONT AN ABRUPT
CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
DUE TO DECOUPLING OF THE BL. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICKUP OUT OF
THE SW.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 272028
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AT H5 STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH WAVE MOVING INTO
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA SNOW AND RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND WILL STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY WARM SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. EAST OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST LIFT HAS
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST. CLEARING IN
THE WEST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. A FEW UPPER 20S
ACROSS FAR N CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLED TO WARM BENEATH THE
STRATUS AND COLD AIR. SOME CONCERN AREAS NEAR ONL MAY FALL INTO THE
MID 20S IF MORE CLEARING THAN EXPECTED OCCURS. BUT SHOULD SEE SOME
WAA OVERNIGHT AND TEMPS MAY FALL QUICKLY TO 30 THEN HOLD MOSTLY
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW WITH THE NEXT SURGE OF WARM AIR...TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING
AGAIN. GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOMEONE HIT 80. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET
EAST OF 183 WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS N CENTRAL. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD
GUST TO 20 MAYBE 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MODELS FACE SOME TIMING ISSUES IN MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY.
OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING SO HAVE LEFT
RAINSHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND BREEZY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S AS COOLER
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND FRONT MOVES IN AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE. CLEARING SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS IN THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCT VFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
EXPECTING VFR/MVFR STRATUS. CIGS GENERALLY IN THE OVC015 TO OVC035
RANGE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXPECTING BKN TO SCT CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB. BEHIND THE FRONT AN ABRUPT
CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
DUE TO DECOUPLING OF THE BL. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICKUP OUT OF
THE SW.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TOMORROW TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...AND DEW PTS
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. RH VALUES LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT...AND COULD LOCALLY SEE VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A HOUR OR 2
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
20 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
CREATE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 204. FURTHER EAST TEMPS
COOLER WITH A LITTLE BETTER SFC MOISTURE AND RH VALUES MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 20 PERCENT.

COOLER FOR SUNDAY THEN WARMING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES LIKELY TO APPROACH
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER WINDS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND OR
LESS THAN 15 MPH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 271747
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM NICELY BEHIND A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLE HAS ALREADY
REACHED INTO THE 50S...WITH 30S AND A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
AREAS ALONG THE 83 CORRIDOR TO SEE LATE HIGHS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS STILL LOOKING FOR 60S ALONG AND
WEST OF 83...WITH A NARROW BAND OF 50S ALONG THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ONLY 40S TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. ALSO GOING TO SEE
A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCT VFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
EXPECTING VFR/MVFR STRATUS. CIGS GENERALLY IN THE OVC015 TO OVC035
RANGE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXPECTING BKN TO SCT CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB. BEHIND THE FRONT AN ABRUPT
CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
DUE TO DECOUPLING OF THE BL. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICKUP OUT OF
THE SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271747
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM NICELY BEHIND A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLE HAS ALREADY
REACHED INTO THE 50S...WITH 30S AND A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
AREAS ALONG THE 83 CORRIDOR TO SEE LATE HIGHS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS STILL LOOKING FOR 60S ALONG AND
WEST OF 83...WITH A NARROW BAND OF 50S ALONG THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ONLY 40S TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. ALSO GOING TO SEE
A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCT VFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
EXPECTING VFR/MVFR STRATUS. CIGS GENERALLY IN THE OVC015 TO OVC035
RANGE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXPECTING BKN TO SCT CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB. BEHIND THE FRONT AN ABRUPT
CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
DUE TO DECOUPLING OF THE BL. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICKUP OUT OF
THE SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 271747
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM NICELY BEHIND A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLE HAS ALREADY
REACHED INTO THE 50S...WITH 30S AND A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
AREAS ALONG THE 83 CORRIDOR TO SEE LATE HIGHS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS STILL LOOKING FOR 60S ALONG AND
WEST OF 83...WITH A NARROW BAND OF 50S ALONG THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ONLY 40S TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. ALSO GOING TO SEE
A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCT VFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
EXPECTING VFR/MVFR STRATUS. CIGS GENERALLY IN THE OVC015 TO OVC035
RANGE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXPECTING BKN TO SCT CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB. BEHIND THE FRONT AN ABRUPT
CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
DUE TO DECOUPLING OF THE BL. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICKUP OUT OF
THE SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 271747
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM NICELY BEHIND A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE EASTERN PANHANDLE HAS ALREADY
REACHED INTO THE 50S...WITH 30S AND A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
AREAS ALONG THE 83 CORRIDOR TO SEE LATE HIGHS AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS STILL LOOKING FOR 60S ALONG AND
WEST OF 83...WITH A NARROW BAND OF 50S ALONG THE FRONTAL
POSITION AND ONLY 40S TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. ALSO GOING TO SEE
A FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WARM FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SCT VFR CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT
EXPECTING VFR/MVFR STRATUS. CIGS GENERALLY IN THE OVC015 TO OVC035
RANGE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST...EXPECTING BKN TO SCT CIGS TO
DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB. BEHIND THE FRONT AN ABRUPT
CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
DUE TO DECOUPLING OF THE BL. TOMORROW MORNING WINDS PICKUP OUT OF
THE SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271127 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WRN NEB WILL MOVE EAST A BIT THIS MORNING TO NEAR HIGHWAY 83 AND
LIFT TO VFR 18Z-19Z WITH VFR ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

LATE TONIGHT...THE SREF AND THE NAM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...PERHAPS BETWEEN KANW-KONL
AND KBBW WHERE A PACIFIC FRONT WILL WASHOUT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 271127 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST THE MVFR CIGS ACROSS
WRN NEB WILL MOVE EAST A BIT THIS MORNING TO NEAR HIGHWAY 83 AND
LIFT TO VFR 18Z-19Z WITH VFR ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

LATE TONIGHT...THE SREF AND THE NAM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...PERHAPS BETWEEN KANW-KONL
AND KBBW WHERE A PACIFIC FRONT WILL WASHOUT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 270818
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 270818
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 270818
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ARE VERY
LIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 0.01 INCHES OR LESS PER HOUR. THE RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND
WASHOUT AROUND BROKEN BOW AND AINSWORTH THIS EVENING. THE MODELS
THEN SUGGEST PATCHY FOG WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WITH 40S AND 50S EAST
OF THE FRONT. THE 60S MIGHT BE OVERDONE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
HANGING OVER THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S
REFLECT THE VERY WARM AIR MOVING INTO WRN NEB. TEMPERATURES IN ERN
WY THIS MORNING ARE IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS TWO ROBUST PV ANOMALIES MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER REMAINS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN AS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACES
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LEFT POPS OUT FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES WERE INTRODUCED. THE LIFT IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL TOO
DRY ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB. MOISTURE PROFILE IS A LITTLE BETTER
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF
WILL BE REALIZED. BEHIND THE FRONT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PROMOTE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE PUSHES EAST TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER
THRESHOLDS. NEXT PV MAX TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AND SENDS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA. THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRAW SURFACE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES KEEP
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY AIR ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED DAILY
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PRESENTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WHENEVER WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 270441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 270441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 270441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 270441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. UPPER
HIGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES. TROUGH THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM
THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH ALABAMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

AT 20Z THURSDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW DOWN INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AN INVERTED COLD FRONT EXTENDED NORTH FROM THE LOW
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT HAD PUSHED SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED COLD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE AIRMASS WAS WELL COLDER AND CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
WERE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WAS LIGHT...BUT WITH
THE COLDER AIR...HAD FALLEN AS SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP 850MB TEMPERATURES AT A RANGE FROM -5C OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR 3C OVER THE PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH A GOOD
FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL DEVELOPING. ALSO...MOISTURE IN THIS GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW SO WITH THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONTOGENESIS SIGNAL WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK TO
THE EAST. THE TREND FOR PRECIPITATION DOES THE SAME AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THE FORECAST IS DRY. FORECAST UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE AS RAIN OR SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
SNOW BUT AS THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE FORECAST WITH A
MIX AT THIS TIME...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DESPITE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE TONIGHT...CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL SEE LOWS DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING POINT DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN
ON FRIDAY...THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO ONLY MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR EAST
AS A LINE FROM NEAR AINSWORTH TO NEAR BRADY. EAST OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. ONE THING TO MENTION IS THAT IF CLOUD COVER
STAYS IN PLACE AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE TOO HIGH SO UPCOMING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MONITOR AND LOWER IF
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER NIGHT LOWS. SOME WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE
LIMITED AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ONEIL IN
THE 60S ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME LOW 80S AROUND KIML. SATURDAY NIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. SUNDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MOIST AIR LIFTING UP OVER A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW TO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 09Z. CEILINGS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL WITH
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE STILL
COULD FAVOR RAIN...SNOW OR A MIX IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF
LBF...TIF AND VTN BUT IT LOOKS TO FAVOR SNOW IN THE WEST NEAR OGA.
THE NEWEST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT RN/SN
IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO LBF AND VTN TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND WE WILL KEEP
CEILING AND VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET AND 3SM AT THOSE SITES.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA NORTH AND
WEST OF AN ANW-BBW-LXN LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT WORKS
EASTWARD...THE WIND IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BECOME 300-340 AT
12-16G22-26KT ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-LBF LINE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE WEEKEND BRINGS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AGAIN WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICTS EACH DAY. THE WINDS MOST DAYS
DON/T CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG WHICH COULD HELP KEEP FIRE
DANGER AT BAY...AND AT ELEVATED LEVELS RATHER THAN CRITICAL. THAT
BEING SAID...IF ON ANY OF THESE DAYS HIGHER WINDS END UP
OCCURRING...FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME CRITICAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER








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