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000
FXUS63 KLBF 212351 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
651 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOCUS AS WE SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WITH THE
PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...AS DEW
PT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WILL HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FOG AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON FOG...HOWEVER DID SEE SOME
ACROSS WESTERN KS LAST NIGHT WHICH CREPT INTO FAR SW NEB THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO NW NEB...A BAND/BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT AROUND 100 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE POSITIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER...SO LOCALLY COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME. ALSO SEEING NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPENDING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RICH
BL MOISTURE KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...HOWEVER SOME CLEARING AND
BETTER MIXING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH FOLLOWS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CNTL
CANADA WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND MID
SINGLE DIGITS C.

TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW 700MB WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND DEEP
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA DRAWS WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE
BEST GUESS ON HIGHS FRIDAY IS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE MEX INDICATE MID 80S AND THIS COULD VERY WELL VERIFY IF
DEEP MIXING TO 700MB IS ACHIEVED DURING THE BRIEF PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE FALL. THERE IS THE HINT OF SOME MORNING STRATUS IN
THE NAM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS CUSTOMARY OF WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS
AND WINDS ARE WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING
SWEPT EAST BY AFTN AND HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY 21Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 10C SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 800 TO 750MB.

A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LEAD WAVE FOR A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACCORDING TO HPC AND THE ECM...1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

COOL WEATHER TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT NOTE THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS TIME
OF YEAR OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 212028
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
CNTL CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WARM AIR INTO THE CNTL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY PRODUCING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
BE THE FORECAST FOCUS AS WE SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER WITH THE
PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY HAVE BROUGHT AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE...AS DEW
PT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
WILL HAVE A BRIEF CHANCE FOR FOG AS TEMPS COOL OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON FOG...HOWEVER DID SEE SOME
ACROSS WESTERN KS LAST NIGHT WHICH CREPT INTO FAR SW NEB THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND
EXPECT ANY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. MEANWHILE AS THE FRONT ARRIVES INTO NW NEB...A BAND/BROKEN BAND
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT AROUND 100 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDEX VALUES ARE POSITIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER
OVERNIGHT. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER...SO LOCALLY COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW WITH SFC BASED CAPE
INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME. ALSO SEEING NEG LIFTED INDEX VALUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER.
SHEAR IS WEAK SO NOT EXPENDING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RICH
BL MOISTURE KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS...UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...HOWEVER SOME CLEARING AND
BETTER MIXING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS SW SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH HIGHS
CLOSE TO 70 WHICH FOLLOWS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CNTL
CANADA WILL CIRCULATE WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS LIMITING VERTICAL MIXING TO
AROUND 800MB. H850-700MB TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS AND MID
SINGLE DIGITS C.

TEMPERATURES AT AND BELOW 700MB WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND DEEP
WESTERLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CANADA DRAWS WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. THE
BEST GUESS ON HIGHS FRIDAY IS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE MEX INDICATE MID 80S AND THIS COULD VERY WELL VERIFY IF
DEEP MIXING TO 700MB IS ACHIEVED DURING THE BRIEF PEAK HEATING
PERIOD OF LATE FALL. THERE IS THE HINT OF SOME MORNING STRATUS IN
THE NAM EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS CUSTOMARY OF WEAK PACIFIC FRONTS
AND WINDS ARE WEAK AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE NAM SHOWS THIS MOISTURE BEING
SWEPT EAST BY AFTN AND HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT BY 21Z.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. H700MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 10C SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS
IN THE 80S. A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE
CNTL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WHICH PRESUMABLY WOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 800 TO 750MB.

A STRONG HYBRID PACIFIC CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY A LEAD WAVE FOR A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT ACCORDING TO HPC AND THE ECM...1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS.

COOL WEATHER TAKES OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. TUESDAY MORNING WOULD BE THE COLDEST
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OVERHEAD. THE FORECAST IS FOR LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BUT NOTE THAT HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS TIME
OF YEAR OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TODAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT /LESS THAN
10KTS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT AT TERMINAL SIGHTS STILL
SEEING SOME UNCERTAINTY...THUS WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
SHRA...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVR/IFR CIGS. THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 211807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH CROSSES THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT AND PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TODAY WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT /LESS THAN
10KTS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPACT AT TERMINAL SIGHTS STILL
SEEING SOME UNCERTAINTY...THUS WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
SHRA...ALTHOUGH MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVR/IFR CIGS. THE BETTER
CHANCES ARE EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 211122
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE 5000 FEET OR HIGHER. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE...WIND WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT LATE THIS MORNING AS IT
INCREASES TO 15KT OR GREATER. BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE 170-190 AT 15-18G22-28KT. OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY...YOU CAN
EXPECT CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO BE UNLIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 211122
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE 5000 FEET OR HIGHER. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE...WIND WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT LATE THIS MORNING AS IT
INCREASES TO 15KT OR GREATER. BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE 170-190 AT 15-18G22-28KT. OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY...YOU CAN
EXPECT CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO BE UNLIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 211122
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE 5000 FEET OR HIGHER. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z IN NORTH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

MEANWHILE...WIND WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT LATE THIS MORNING AS IT
INCREASES TO 15KT OR GREATER. BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS...IT IS EXPECTED
TO BE 170-190 AT 15-18G22-28KT. OTHERWISE...FOR TODAY...YOU CAN
EXPECT CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO BE UNLIMITED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 210854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40KTS AT 850MB EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 10KTS FROM THE SOUTH OVER NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE KVTN VICINITY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
SCT030 AT KLBF. BREEZY MID MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO
20KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER MOST OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER












000
FXUS63 KLBF 210854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT...IT IS
LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40KTS AT 850MB EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 10KTS FROM THE SOUTH OVER NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE KVTN VICINITY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
SCT030 AT KLBF. BREEZY MID MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO
20KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER MOST OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER













000
FXUS63 KLBF 210852
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER TONIGHT...
IT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40KTS AT 850MB EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 10KTS FROM THE SOUTH OVER NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE KVTN VICINITY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
SCT030 AT KLBF. BREEZY MID MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA TUESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 210852
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP AT 0630Z SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. AIRCRAFT WIND REPORTS SHOW THE TRAJECTORY
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN ALBERTA AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LOW-LEVEL RADAR WIND
PROFILERS SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE 20-25MM IS INDICATED. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE
07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH DEEPENS...THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WIND APPROACHING 20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY.

AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER TONIGHT...
IT IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 305-310K
(800-650MB) LAYER FIRST IN THE PANHANDLE AROUND 09Z AND THEN TOWARD
12Z IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION BY
09Z AT LEAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY IS LOWER IN THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND OTHER PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 12Z OR LATER. BLENDING THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GEMREG...THE
NAM12...THE GFS40 AND THE ECMWF SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION ONLY IN THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS. STILL...THE FORCING COULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 06Z NORTH.
WITH 875MB BASED LIFTED INDICES OF LESS THAN 0C...ANYTHING THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THEN WITH
ANOMALOUS WARM UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS
THEY HAVE MOVED TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS ALL OF
THE LONGER TERM MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
OVER ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THEN ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE WEST. AT 12Z THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR IN THE
LOW LEVELS /BELOW 800MB/ THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IS INCREASING...WITH
OMEGA SIGNAL OF 5-10 UBAR/S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SO WOULD
EXPECT SHOWERS AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ALOFT CAN/T DISCOUNT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO WILL THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE
STRONGEST OMEGA SIGNAL IS SEEN IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN IT
SUBSIDES EARLY AFTERNOON THEN STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WAS SEEING REDUCED SIGNALS FOR
THUNDER DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH PICK BACK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOME INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
POINT...WITH A SIGNAL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND SLIGHT NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES IN THE MORNING FELT LIKE
THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST.
AGAIN...THE FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA/INSTABILITY ALL INCREASES ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
VICINITY AS WELL WOULD EXPECT AN UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY MOSTLY OCCUR WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
OR JUST IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
PUSH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING A RAPID END TO ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCES BEYOND
MIDNIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
THINK ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT THE RAIN WILL HAVE PUSHED OUT
SOONER.

LOOKING FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WHICH WILL INDUCE THE GOOD STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE.
UNDER THE RIDGE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH CLOSER TO SUMMER LIKE WARMTH EXPECTED FOR THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THURSDAY/S HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AS THE WARM AIR IS STARTING TO PUSH IN...BUT BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C OVER
NEBRASKA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP HIGH AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE DON/T SEE ANYTHING PROHIBITING THIS FROM HAPPENING.
ALSO...JUST AS A SIDE NOTE...LOOKED AT ANOMALIES FROM THE NAEFS
WHICH SHOWED 500MB TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEING OF A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS IT
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
TROUGH SOLUTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE ABLE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
THE INCREASED LIFT MOVING IN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA. EITHER WAY...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE RAIN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHAT SOLUTION PLAYS OUT. ALSO...THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40KTS AT 850MB EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 10KTS FROM THE SOUTH OVER NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE KVTN VICINITY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
SCT030 AT KLBF. BREEZY MID MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA TUESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 210523
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 20.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST AND BEGIN THE BREAKDOWN PROCESS AS
A TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEEPENING A LEE SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ADVECT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY PASS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TO FAVORABLE PERIODS OF STRATUS...FIRST AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY...THEN ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEBATED THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS OUR SW AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER
ALOFT...BUT NAM VISIBILITY PARAMETERS AND SREF PROBS ARE
SUGGESTING THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ANTICIPATED
FOR HIGHS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON /GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH/...BUT THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT BAY AS MINIMUM RH FALLS
INTO 30-40% DURING PEAK HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PERSISTENT STRETCH OF MILD DAYS AHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA JUST
AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. H85 ALSO SSW AT 40-45KTS. MODELS
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UP TO 40 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF BASSETT
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE. LITTLE OR NO POPS WEST OF THIS LINE WHICH IS
BEHIND H7 TROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESIDING.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S NCTRL TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST 70. A FURTHER WARMUP TO THE MID 70S THURSDAY WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE HIGHS MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH H85 TEMPS FROM 16C NORTHEAST TO
NEAR 20C SOUTHWEST.

CONTINUED MILD INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR DAY 4 /FRIDAY/
AND DAY 5 /SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN
TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40KTS AT 850MB EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 10KTS FROM THE SOUTH OVER NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE KVTN VICINITY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
SCT030 AT KLBF. BREEZY MID MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 210523
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 20.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST AND BEGIN THE BREAKDOWN PROCESS AS
A TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEEPENING A LEE SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ADVECT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY PASS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TO FAVORABLE PERIODS OF STRATUS...FIRST AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY...THEN ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEBATED THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS OUR SW AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER
ALOFT...BUT NAM VISIBILITY PARAMETERS AND SREF PROBS ARE
SUGGESTING THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ANTICIPATED
FOR HIGHS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON /GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH/...BUT THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT BAY AS MINIMUM RH FALLS
INTO 30-40% DURING PEAK HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PERSISTENT STRETCH OF MILD DAYS AHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA JUST
AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. H85 ALSO SSW AT 40-45KTS. MODELS
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UP TO 40 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF BASSETT
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE. LITTLE OR NO POPS WEST OF THIS LINE WHICH IS
BEHIND H7 TROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESIDING.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S NCTRL TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST 70. A FURTHER WARMUP TO THE MID 70S THURSDAY WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE HIGHS MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH H85 TEMPS FROM 16C NORTHEAST TO
NEAR 20C SOUTHWEST.

CONTINUED MILD INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR DAY 4 /FRIDAY/
AND DAY 5 /SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN
TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40KTS AT 850MB EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 10KTS FROM THE SOUTH OVER NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE KVTN VICINITY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SIGNAL IS NOT STRONG AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
SCT030 AT KLBF. BREEZY MID MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS. VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER MOST OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 202345 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 20.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST AND BEGIN THE BREAKDOWN PROCESS AS
A TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEEPENING A LEE SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ADVECT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY PASS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TO FAVORABLE PERIODS OF STRATUS...FIRST AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY...THEN ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEBATED THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS OUR SW AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER
ALOFT...BUT NAM VISIBILITY PARAMETERS AND SREF PROBS ARE
SUGGESTING THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ANTICIPATED
FOR HIGHS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON /GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH/...BUT THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT BAY AS MINIMUM RH FALLS
INTO 30-40% DURING PEAK HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PERSISTENT STRETCH OF MILD DAYS AHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA JUST
AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. H85 ALSO SSW AT 40-45KTS. MODELS
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UP TO 40 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF BASSETT
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE. LITTLE OR NO POPS WEST OF THIS LINE WHICH IS
BEHIND H7 TROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESIDING.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S NCTRL TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST 70. A FURTHER WARMUP TO THE MID 70S THURSDAY WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE HIGHS MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH H85 TEMPS FROM 16C NORTHEAST TO
NEAR 20C SOUTHWEST.

CONTINUED MILD INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR DAY 4 /FRIDAY/
AND DAY 5 /SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN
TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH WINDS UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH A LOW LEVEL 30KT JET AROUND
850MB. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 202032
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 20.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST AND BEGIN THE BREAKDOWN PROCESS AS
A TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEEPENING A LEE SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ADVECT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY PASS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TO FAVORABLE PERIODS OF STRATUS...FIRST AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY...THEN ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEBATED THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS OUR SW AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER
ALOFT...BUT NAM VISIBILITY PARAMETERS AND SREF PROBS ARE
SUGGESTING THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ANTICIPATED
FOR HIGHS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON /GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH/...BUT THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT BAY AS MINIMUM RH FALLS
INTO 30-40% DURING PEAK HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PERSISTENT STRETCH OF MILD DAYS AHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA JUST
AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. H85 ALSO SSW AT 40-45KTS. MODELS
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UP TO 40 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF BASSETT
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE. LITTLE OR NO POPS WEST OF THIS LINE WHICH IS
BEHIND H7 TROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESIDING.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S NCTRL TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST 70. A FURTHER WARMUP TO THE MID 70S THURSDAY WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE HIGHS MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH H85 TEMPS FROM 16C NORTHEAST TO
NEAR 20C SOUTHWEST.

CONTINUED MILD INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR DAY 4 /FRIDAY/
AND DAY 5 /SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN
TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE INCREASING BL MOISTURE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER
09Z TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING THE KLBF
TERMINAL IS NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST YET...BUT WILL BE WATCHED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 201716
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1216 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT OR BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
IOWA TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS
MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE MANIFEST IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE MISSOURI BOUNDARY HAD
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT THAN THE ONE ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IS SCATTERED CIRRUS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL. CLOUDINESS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT
GET INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTCOMES ARE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THEY DO AGREE WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND BE OVER OREGON/NEVADA. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMING
DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND UP
INTO NEBRASKA. THEREFORE...THE PROCESS OF INCREASING THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
50S...OR AT LEAST UPPER 40S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY. 850MB WINDS ARE
25-40 KTS SO ASSUMING MIXING OCCURS TO AT LEAST THAT LEVEL SHOULD
GET GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM OVER
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING NO WORRIES
CURRENTLY WITH FOG SO ONLY ANTICIPATING STRATUS. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST BUT HOW LONG THE CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THEM AROUND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY IN SOME PLACES. IF
THIS SCENARIO WOULD OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD CERTAINLY BE
IMPACTED. THE NAM/S STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO START
CATCHING ON WITH THIS TREND AND DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY SIGNIFICANTLY. REALLY DON/T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR IF THIS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO LOW WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID GO DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN ANY RAIN WILL MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DRY INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANCE OF GETTING A
SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE WITH
THAT BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG
OMEGA SIGNAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THESE
REASONS...KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED...THEN AS THE INSTABILITY BUILDS SHOULD GET
MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SO CAN/T DISCOUNT SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ALSO A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS THE
THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS HIGHS UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. JUST FEEL THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE FULL
SUNSHINE TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS
WELL...THINK HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WILL GET.
SO ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.

THEN MOVING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER YET...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES
TO 21C ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS RATHER THAN THE END OF OCTOBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T GO TERRIBLY WARM YET...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE INCREASING BL MOISTURE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER
09Z TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING THE KLBF
TERMINAL IS NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST YET...BUT WILL BE WATCHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY WAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF
35 TO 40. FOR TODAY...PROJECTED DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHICH IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. WIND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WILL NOT
REACH CRITICAL VALUES EITHER. SO...WE DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 201716
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1216 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT OR BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
IOWA TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS
MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE MANIFEST IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE MISSOURI BOUNDARY HAD
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT THAN THE ONE ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IS SCATTERED CIRRUS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL. CLOUDINESS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT
GET INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTCOMES ARE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THEY DO AGREE WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND BE OVER OREGON/NEVADA. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMING
DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND UP
INTO NEBRASKA. THEREFORE...THE PROCESS OF INCREASING THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
50S...OR AT LEAST UPPER 40S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY. 850MB WINDS ARE
25-40 KTS SO ASSUMING MIXING OCCURS TO AT LEAST THAT LEVEL SHOULD
GET GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM OVER
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING NO WORRIES
CURRENTLY WITH FOG SO ONLY ANTICIPATING STRATUS. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST BUT HOW LONG THE CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THEM AROUND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY IN SOME PLACES. IF
THIS SCENARIO WOULD OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD CERTAINLY BE
IMPACTED. THE NAM/S STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO START
CATCHING ON WITH THIS TREND AND DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY SIGNIFICANTLY. REALLY DON/T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR IF THIS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO LOW WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID GO DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN ANY RAIN WILL MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DRY INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANCE OF GETTING A
SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE WITH
THAT BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG
OMEGA SIGNAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THESE
REASONS...KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED...THEN AS THE INSTABILITY BUILDS SHOULD GET
MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SO CAN/T DISCOUNT SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ALSO A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS THE
THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS HIGHS UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. JUST FEEL THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE FULL
SUNSHINE TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS
WELL...THINK HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WILL GET.
SO ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.

THEN MOVING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER YET...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES
TO 21C ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS RATHER THAN THE END OF OCTOBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T GO TERRIBLY WARM YET...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE 18Z FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE INCREASING BL MOISTURE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AFTER
09Z TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS IMPACTING THE KLBF
TERMINAL IS NOT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST YET...BUT WILL BE WATCHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY WAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF
35 TO 40. FOR TODAY...PROJECTED DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHICH IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. WIND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WILL NOT
REACH CRITICAL VALUES EITHER. SO...WE DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 201404 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT OR BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
IOWA TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS
MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE MANIFEST IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE MISSOURI BOUNDARY HAD
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT THAN THE ONE ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IS SCATTERED CIRRUS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL. CLOUDINESS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT
GET INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTCOMES ARE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THEY DO AGREE WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND BE OVER OREGON/NEVADA. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMING
DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND UP
INTO NEBRASKA. THEREFORE...THE PROCESS OF INCREASING THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
50S...OR AT LEAST UPPER 40S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY. 850MB WINDS ARE
25-40 KTS SO ASSUMING MIXING OCCURS TO AT LEAST THAT LEVEL SHOULD
GET GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM OVER
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING NO WORRIES
CURRENTLY WITH FOG SO ONLY ANTICIPATING STRATUS. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST BUT HOW LONG THE CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THEM AROUND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY IN SOME PLACES. IF
THIS SCENARIO WOULD OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD CERTAINLY BE
IMPACTED. THE NAM/S STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO START
CATCHING ON WITH THIS TREND AND DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY SIGNIFICANTLY. REALLY DON/T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR IF THIS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO LOW WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID GO DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN ANY RAIN WILL MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DRY INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANCE OF GETTING A
SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE WITH
THAT BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG
OMEGA SIGNAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THESE
REASONS...KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED...THEN AS THE INSTABILITY BUILDS SHOULD GET
MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SO CAN/T DISCOUNT SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ALSO A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS THE
THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS HIGHS UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. JUST FEEL THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE FULL
SUNSHINE TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS
WELL...THINK HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WILL GET.
SO ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.

THEN MOVING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER YET...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES
TO 21C ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS RATHER THAN THE END OF OCTOBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T GO TERRIBLY WARM YET...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...BUT
CEILING WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. UNTIL THEN...CEILING
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY WAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF
35 TO 40. FOR TODAY...PROJECTED DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHICH IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. WIND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WILL NOT
REACH CRITICAL VALUES EITHER. SO...WE DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 201404 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT OR BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
IOWA TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS
MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE MANIFEST IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE MISSOURI BOUNDARY HAD
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT THAN THE ONE ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IS SCATTERED CIRRUS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL. CLOUDINESS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT
GET INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTCOMES ARE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THEY DO AGREE WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND BE OVER OREGON/NEVADA. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMING
DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND UP
INTO NEBRASKA. THEREFORE...THE PROCESS OF INCREASING THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
50S...OR AT LEAST UPPER 40S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY. 850MB WINDS ARE
25-40 KTS SO ASSUMING MIXING OCCURS TO AT LEAST THAT LEVEL SHOULD
GET GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM OVER
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING NO WORRIES
CURRENTLY WITH FOG SO ONLY ANTICIPATING STRATUS. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST BUT HOW LONG THE CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THEM AROUND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY IN SOME PLACES. IF
THIS SCENARIO WOULD OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD CERTAINLY BE
IMPACTED. THE NAM/S STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO START
CATCHING ON WITH THIS TREND AND DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY SIGNIFICANTLY. REALLY DON/T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR IF THIS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO LOW WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID GO DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN ANY RAIN WILL MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DRY INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANCE OF GETTING A
SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE WITH
THAT BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A STRONG
OMEGA SIGNAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THESE
REASONS...KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED...THEN AS THE INSTABILITY BUILDS SHOULD GET
MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SO CAN/T DISCOUNT SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ALSO A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS THE
THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS HIGHS UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. JUST FEEL THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE FULL
SUNSHINE TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS
WELL...THINK HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WILL GET.
SO ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.

THEN MOVING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER YET...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES
TO 21C ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS RATHER THAN THE END OF OCTOBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T GO TERRIBLY WARM YET...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...BUT
CEILING WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. UNTIL THEN...CEILING
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY WAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF
35 TO 40. FOR TODAY...PROJECTED DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHICH IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. WIND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WILL NOT
REACH CRITICAL VALUES EITHER. SO...WE DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER











000
FXUS63 KLBF 201119
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT OR BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
IOWA TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS
MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE MANIFEST IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE MISSOURI BOUNDARY HAD
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT THAN THE ONE ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IS SCATTERED CIRRUS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL. CLOUDINESS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT
GET INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTCOMES ARE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THEY DO AGREE WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND BE OVER OREGON/NEVADA. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMING
DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND UP
INTO NEBRASKA. THEREFORE...THE PROCESS OF INCREASING THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
50S...OR AT LEAST UPPER 40S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY. 850MB WINDS ARE
25-40 KTS SO ASSUMING MIXING OCCURS TO AT LEAST THAT LEVEL SHOULD
GET GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM OVER
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING NO WORRIES
CURRENTLY WIND FOG SO ONLY ANTICIPATING STRATUS. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST BUT HOW LONG THE CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THEM AROUND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY IN SOME PLACES. IF
THIS SCENARIO WOULD OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD CERTAINLY BE
IMPACTED. THE NAM/S STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO START
CATCHING ON WIH THIS TREND AND DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY SIGNIFICANTLY. REALLY DON`T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR IF THIS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO LOW WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID GO DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN ANY RAIN WILL MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DRY INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANCE OF GETTING A
SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. `AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE
WITH THAT BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG OMEGA SIGNAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THESE REASONS...KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED...THEN
AS THE INSTABILITY BUILDS SHOULD GET MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IN AFTERNOON.AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY SO CAN/T DISCOUNT SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ALSO A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS THE
THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS HIGHS UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. JUST FEEL THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE FULL
SUNSHINE TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS
WELL THINK HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WILL GET.
SO ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.

THEN MOVING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER YET...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES
TO 21C ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS RATHER THAN THE END OF OCTOBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T GO TERRIBLY WARM YET...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...BUT
CEILING WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. UNTIL THEN...CEILING
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY WAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF
35 TO 40. FOR TODAY...PROJECTED DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHICH IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. WIND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WILL NOT
REACH CRITICAL VALUES EITHER. SO...WE DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 201119
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
619 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT OR BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
IOWA TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS
MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE MANIFEST IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE MISSOURI BOUNDARY HAD
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT THAN THE ONE ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IS SCATTERED CIRRUS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL. CLOUDINESS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT
GET INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTCOMES ARE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THEY DO AGREE WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND BE OVER OREGON/NEVADA. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMING
DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND UP
INTO NEBRASKA. THEREFORE...THE PROCESS OF INCREASING THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
50S...OR AT LEAST UPPER 40S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY. 850MB WINDS ARE
25-40 KTS SO ASSUMING MIXING OCCURS TO AT LEAST THAT LEVEL SHOULD
GET GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM OVER
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING NO WORRIES
CURRENTLY WIND FOG SO ONLY ANTICIPATING STRATUS. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST BUT HOW LONG THE CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THEM AROUND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY IN SOME PLACES. IF
THIS SCENARIO WOULD OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD CERTAINLY BE
IMPACTED. THE NAM/S STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO START
CATCHING ON WIH THIS TREND AND DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY SIGNIFICANTLY. REALLY DON`T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR IF THIS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO LOW WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID GO DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN ANY RAIN WILL MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DRY INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANCE OF GETTING A
SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. `AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE
WITH THAT BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG OMEGA SIGNAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THESE REASONS...KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED...THEN
AS THE INSTABILITY BUILDS SHOULD GET MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IN AFTERNOON.AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY SO CAN/T DISCOUNT SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ALSO A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS THE
THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS HIGHS UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. JUST FEEL THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE FULL
SUNSHINE TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS
WELL THINK HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WILL GET.
SO ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.

THEN MOVING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER YET...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES
TO 21C ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS RATHER THAN THE END OF OCTOBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T GO TERRIBLY WARM YET...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...BUT
CEILING WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. UNTIL THEN...CEILING
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY WAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF
35 TO 40. FOR TODAY...PROJECTED DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHICH IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. WIND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WILL NOT
REACH CRITICAL VALUES EITHER. SO...WE DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 200857
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT OR BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
IOWA TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS
MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE MANIFEST IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE MISSOURI BOUNDARY HAD
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT THAN THE ONE ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IS SCATTERED CIRRUS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL. CLOUDINESS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT
GET INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTCOMES ARE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THEY DO AGREE WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND BE OVER OREGON/NEVADA. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMING
DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND UP
INTO NEBRASKA. THEREFORE...THE PROCESS OF INCREASING THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
50S...OR AT LEAST UPPER 40S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY. 850MB WINDS ARE
25-40 KTS SO ASSUMING MIXING OCCURS TO AT LEAST THAT LEVEL SHOULD
GET GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM OVER
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING NO WORRIES
CURRENTLY WIND FOG SO ONLY ANTICIPATING STRATUS. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST BUT HOW LONG THE CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THEM AROUND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY IN SOME PLACES. IF
THIS SCENARIO WOULD OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD CERTAINLY BE
IMPACTED. THE NAM/S STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO START
CATCHING ON WIH THIS TREND AND DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY SIGNIFICANTLY. REALLY DON`T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR IF THIS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO LOW WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID GO DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN ANY RAIN WILL MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DRY INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANCE OF GETTING A
SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. `AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE
WITH THAT BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG OMEGA SIGNAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THESE REASONS...KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED...THEN
AS THE INSTABILITY BUILDS SHOULD GET MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IN AFTERNOON.AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY SO CAN/T DISCOUNT SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ALSO A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS THE
THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS HIGHS UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. JUST FEEL THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE FULL
SUNSHINE TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS
WELL THINK HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WILL GET.
SO ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.

THEN MOVING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER YET...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES
TO 21C ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS RATHER THAN THE END OF OCTOBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T GO TERRIBLY WARM YET...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 10 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY WAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF
35 TO 40. FOR TODAY...PROJECTED DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHICH IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. WIND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WILL NOT
REACH CRITICAL VALUES EITHER. SO...WE DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 200857
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A FRONT OR BOUNDARY DRAPED THROUGH WISCONSIN AND
IOWA TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS
MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE MANIFEST IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE MISSOURI BOUNDARY HAD
STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT THAN THE ONE ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FOR TODAY...THE ONLY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED IS SCATTERED CIRRUS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE AS WELL. CLOUDINESS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH TONIGHT THOUGH SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
COME INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF IT BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL NOT
GET INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE GENERAL
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND THAT TIME
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL OUTCOMES ARE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AND ITS
PROGRESSION EASTWARD. THEY DO AGREE WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST
WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE AND BE OVER OREGON/NEVADA. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALSO PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BE PULLED INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMING
DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND UP
INTO NEBRASKA. THEREFORE...THE PROCESS OF INCREASING THE MOISTURE
LOCALLY WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
50S...OR AT LEAST UPPER 40S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP
THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY. 850MB WINDS ARE
25-40 KTS SO ASSUMING MIXING OCCURS TO AT LEAST THAT LEVEL SHOULD
GET GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING FROM OVER
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS AND PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING NO WORRIES
CURRENTLY WIND FOG SO ONLY ANTICIPATING STRATUS. DID INCREASE
CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST BUT HOW LONG THE CLOUDS WILL STICK
AROUND IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE MODELS WANT TO KEEP THEM AROUND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY IN SOME PLACES. IF
THIS SCENARIO WOULD OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD CERTAINLY BE
IMPACTED. THE NAM/S STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO START
CATCHING ON WIH THIS TREND AND DID LOWER THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY SIGNIFICANTLY. REALLY DON`T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR IF THIS
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO DIDN/T WANT TO GO TOO LOW WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES...BUT DID GO DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN ANY RAIN WILL MOVE IN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS DRY INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...WANTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANCE OF GETTING A
SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. `AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE
WITH THAT BOUNDARY BEING THE FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE AND
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING A
STRONG OMEGA SIGNAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
SHOWING ANY DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FOR THESE REASONS...KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED...THEN
AS THE INSTABILITY BUILDS SHOULD GET MORE OF A CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IN AFTERNOON.AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY SO CAN/T DISCOUNT SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY ARE ALSO A BIT PROBLEMATIC AS THE
THOUGHTS ARE IT WILL BE QUITE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS HIGHS UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. JUST FEEL THAT THERE NEEDS TO BE FULL
SUNSHINE TO REACH THOSE NUMBERS AND WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS
WELL THINK HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES WILL BE AS HIGH AS IT WILL GET.
SO ESSENTIALLY DISREGARDED THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS AT THIS POINT.

THEN MOVING ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER YET...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES
TO 21C ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE
MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS RATHER THAN THE END OF OCTOBER.
THE CURRENT FORECAST DOESN/T GO TERRIBLY WARM YET...BUT HAVE
TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 10 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY WAS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS OF
35 TO 40. FOR TODAY...PROJECTED DEWPOINTS OF 40-45 AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-30
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WHICH IS ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THRESHOLDS. WIND...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WILL NOT
REACH CRITICAL VALUES EITHER. SO...WE DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER











000
FXUS63 KLBF 200443
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIODS. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLENTY OF MILD AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 15C. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT WARMUP WILL BE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/STRATUS THROUGH
THE DAY. HELD BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD
OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF ANW
THROUGH IML. LIKELY POPS ACTUALLY EAST OF STOCKVILLE THOUGH BBW
AND ONL IN THE AFTN. STILL LIKELY POPS EAST OF BUB THROUGH ONL
WEED EVENING WITH POPS REMOVED WEST OF VTN THROUGH IML. DESPITE
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF FA ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL SYSTEM QPFS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF FA.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S FOR DAY 5 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 6
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY LARGE SO CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 10 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 200443
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1143 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIODS. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLENTY OF MILD AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 15C. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT WARMUP WILL BE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/STRATUS THROUGH
THE DAY. HELD BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD
OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF ANW
THROUGH IML. LIKELY POPS ACTUALLY EAST OF STOCKVILLE THOUGH BBW
AND ONL IN THE AFTN. STILL LIKELY POPS EAST OF BUB THROUGH ONL
WEED EVENING WITH POPS REMOVED WEST OF VTN THROUGH IML. DESPITE
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF FA ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL SYSTEM QPFS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF FA.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S FOR DAY 5 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 6
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY LARGE SO CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 10 KTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10 KTS MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 192320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIODS. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLENTY OF MILD AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 15C. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT WARMUP WILL BE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/STRATUS THROUGH
THE DAY. HELD BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD
OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF ANW
THROUGH IML. LIKELY POPS ACTUALLY EAST OF STOCKVILLE THOUGH BBW
AND ONL IN THE AFTN. STILL LIKELY POPS EAST OF BUB THROUGH ONL
WEED EVENING WITH POPS REMOVED WEST OF VTN THROUGH IML. DESPITE
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF FA ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL SYSTEM QPFS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF FA.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S FOR DAY 5 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 6
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY LARGE SO CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AT 10 TO 20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 192320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIODS. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLENTY OF MILD AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 15C. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT WARMUP WILL BE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/STRATUS THROUGH
THE DAY. HELD BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD
OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF ANW
THROUGH IML. LIKELY POPS ACTUALLY EAST OF STOCKVILLE THOUGH BBW
AND ONL IN THE AFTN. STILL LIKELY POPS EAST OF BUB THROUGH ONL
WEED EVENING WITH POPS REMOVED WEST OF VTN THROUGH IML. DESPITE
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF FA ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL SYSTEM QPFS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF FA.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S FOR DAY 5 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 6
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY LARGE SO CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AT 10 TO 20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 192320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIODS. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLENTY OF MILD AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 15C. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT WARMUP WILL BE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/STRATUS THROUGH
THE DAY. HELD BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD
OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF ANW
THROUGH IML. LIKELY POPS ACTUALLY EAST OF STOCKVILLE THOUGH BBW
AND ONL IN THE AFTN. STILL LIKELY POPS EAST OF BUB THROUGH ONL
WEED EVENING WITH POPS REMOVED WEST OF VTN THROUGH IML. DESPITE
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF FA ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL SYSTEM QPFS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF FA.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S FOR DAY 5 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 6
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY LARGE SO CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AT 10 TO 20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 192320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIODS. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLENTY OF MILD AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 15C. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT WARMUP WILL BE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/STRATUS THROUGH
THE DAY. HELD BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD
OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF ANW
THROUGH IML. LIKELY POPS ACTUALLY EAST OF STOCKVILLE THOUGH BBW
AND ONL IN THE AFTN. STILL LIKELY POPS EAST OF BUB THROUGH ONL
WEED EVENING WITH POPS REMOVED WEST OF VTN THROUGH IML. DESPITE
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF FA ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL SYSTEM QPFS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF FA.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S FOR DAY 5 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 6
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY LARGE SO CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE
AT 10 TO 20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 192032
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIODS. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLENTY OF MILD AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 15C. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT WARMUP WILL BE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/STRATUS THROUGH
THE DAY. HELD BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD
OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF ANW
THROUGH IML. LIKELY POPS ACTUALLY EAST OF STOCKVILLE THOUGH BBW
AND ONL IN THE AFTN. STILL LIKELY POPS EAST OF BUB THROUGH ONL
WEED EVENING WITH POPS REMOVED WEST OF VTN THROUGH IML. DESPITE
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF FA ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL SYSTEM QPFS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF FA.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S FOR DAY 5 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 6
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY LARGE SO CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF CYCLE FOR ALL WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS. A WEAK WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SWITCH TO
NORTHERLY...BUT AT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 8KTS
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 192032
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

OVERALL MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIODS. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PLENTY OF MILD AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 15C. WHAT IS MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT WARMUP WILL BE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/STRATUS THROUGH
THE DAY. HELD BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO COOLER MET
GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD
OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF ANW
THROUGH IML. LIKELY POPS ACTUALLY EAST OF STOCKVILLE THOUGH BBW
AND ONL IN THE AFTN. STILL LIKELY POPS EAST OF BUB THROUGH ONL
WEED EVENING WITH POPS REMOVED WEST OF VTN THROUGH IML. DESPITE
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF FA ON WEDNESDAY...FEEL SYSTEM QPFS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF FA.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S FOR DAY 5 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 6
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH BY SUNDAY
SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. MODEL
DIFFERENCES HOWEVER ARE FAIRLY LARGE SO CONFIDENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF CYCLE FOR ALL WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS. A WEAK WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SWITCH TO
NORTHERLY...BUT AT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 8KTS
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 191741
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS BETRAYED GENERAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS DISCERNIBLE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS IT WAS MINIMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO TO NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IS LIKELY TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE OR NO
INFLUENCE ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES. WIND WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT THIS
EVENING...THUS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THERE IS
SOME DISCONTINUITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST...AND THUS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING
IMPACTING THE PLAINS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

BEGINNING ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE PLAINS AND AS A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING AT 12Z DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES C FROM WHAT WILL BE SEEN ON SUNDAY. NO CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SO SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND
850-800MB. THIS WOULD PUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE
ALOFT...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD
CAUSE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. THAT BEING SAID...NOT LOOKING FOR WINDS TO
COMPLETELY DROP OFF TO CALM SO THE POTENTIAL COULD BE COLDER IF
WINDS DO IN FACT GO CALM.

A LITTLE WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS
IF FOG OR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH
INTO NEBRASKA IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WITH THE WINDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A STRATUS
DECK. IF THESE CLOUDS DO DEVELOP...IT COULD IMPACT TUESDAY MORNING
LOWS...AND IF THEY ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP COULD THEN IMPACT
TUESDAY/S HIGHS. BELIEVE THIS IS THE REASONING FOR THE 10 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE MET AND MAV
PRODUCTS AS THEY VARY FROM 70 TO 80 F AT KLBF FOR TUESDAY. IF
THERE IS NO CLOUDS OR IF THEY BREAK UP QUICKLY /WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW THEM STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON/ TUESDAY SHOULD BE
QUITE WARM AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN BRINGING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /NEARING 20C OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/ AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN...GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY /PENDING THE CLOUD COVER ISSUE/ SO SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE
TO MIX TO THE 850MB LEVEL AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS OF 30 TO
40KTS AT THAT LEVEL...IT WILL BE QUITE A WINDY DAY.

A FEW OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP A BIT WITH THE ONSET UP
RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM REMAINS DRY
UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS AS IT IS SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HOWEVER HAVE THE FRONT FROM ABOUT KIML TO KTIF TO KICR BY
12Z. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO OVER AN INCH IN PLACES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WILL BE LOOKING TO
BUILD SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MEAGER THOUGH...WITH LESS
THAN 700 J/KG AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY MINIMAL CAPE THINKING
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. THE MAIN PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH HASN/T
CHANGED...BUT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF THE RAIN. THE
RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY AS
IS IN THE FORECAST.

THEN MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE ON WEDNESDAY WILL DIG SOUTH INTO
EASTERN TEXAS THEN MAY SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
IN THE MEANTIME...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JUST HOW WARM IT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WHICH AT THIS POINT
VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY THOUGH...LOOKING
AT HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF CYCLE FOR ALL WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TERMINALS. A WEAK WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SWITCH TO
NORTHERLY...BUT AT THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 8KTS
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 191106
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
606 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS BETRAYED GENERAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS DISCERNIBLE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS IT WAS MINIMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO TO NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IS LIKELY TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE OR NO
INFLUENCE ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES. WIND WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT THIS
EVENING...THUS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THERE IS
SOME DISCONTINUITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST...AND THUS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING
IMPACTING THE PLAINS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

BEGINNING ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE PLAINS AND AS A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING AT 12Z DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES C FROM WHAT WILL BE SEEN ON SUNDAY. NO CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SO SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND
850-800MB. THIS WOULD PUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE
ALOFT...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD
CAUSE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. THAT BEING SAID...NOT LOOKING FOR WINDS TO
COMPLETELY DROP OFF TO CALM SO THE POTENTIAL COULD BE COLDER IF
WINDS DO IN FACT GO CALM.

A LITTLE WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS
IF FOG OR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH
INTO NEBRASKA IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WITH THE WINDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A STRATUS
DECK. IF THESE CLOUDS DO DEVELOP...IT COULD IMPACT TUESDAY MORNING
LOWS...AND IF THEY ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP COULD THEN IMPACT
TUESDAY/S HIGHS. BELIEVE THIS IS THE REASONING FOR THE 10 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE MET AND MAV
PRODUCTS AS THEY VARY FROM 70 TO 80 F AT KLBF FOR TUESDAY. IF
THERE IS NO CLOUDS OR IF THEY BREAK UP QUICKLY /WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW THEM STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON/ TUESDAY SHOULD BE
QUITE WARM AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN BRINGING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /NEARING 20C OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/ AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN...GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY /PENDING THE CLOUD COVER ISSUE/ SO SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE
TO MIX TO THE 850MB LEVEL AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS OF 30 TO
40KTS AT THAT LEVEL...IT WILL BE QUITE A WINDY DAY.

A FEW OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP A BIT WITH THE ONSET UP
RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM REMAINS DRY
UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS AS IT IS SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HOWEVER HAVE THE FRONT FROM ABOUT KIML TO KTIF TO KICR BY
12Z. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO OVER AN INCH IN PLACES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WILL BE LOOKING TO
BUILD SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MEAGER THOUGH...WITH LESS
THAN 700 J/KG AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY MINIMAL CAPE THINKING
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. THE MAIN PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH HASN/T
CHANGED...BUT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF THE RAIN. THE
RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY AS
IS IN THE FORECAST.

THEN MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE ON WEDNESDAY WILL DIG SOUTH INTO
EASTERN TEXAS THEN MAY SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
IN THE MEANTIME...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JUST HOW WARM IT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WHICH AT THIS POINT
VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY THOUGH...LOOKING
AT HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH WIND LESS THAN 10KT TODAY AND LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 190848
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS BETRAYED GENERAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS DISCERNIBLE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS IT WAS MINIMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO TO NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IS LIKELY TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE OR NO
INFLUENCE ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES. WIND WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT THIS
EVENING...THUS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THERE IS
SOME DISCONTINUITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST...AND THUS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING
IMPACTING THE PLAINS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

BEGINNING ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE PLAINS AND AS A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING AT 12Z DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES C FROM WHAT WILL BE SEEN ON SUNDAY. NO CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SO SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND
850-800MB. THIS WOULD PUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE
ALOFT...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD
CAUSE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. THAT BEING SAID...NOT LOOKING FOR WINDS TO
COMPLETELY DROP OFF TO CALM SO THE POTENTIAL COULD BE COLDER IF
WINDS DO IN FACT GO CALM.

A LITTLE WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS
IF FOG OR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH
INTO NEBRASKA IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WITH THE WINDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A STRATUS
DECK. IF THESE CLOUDS DO DEVELOP...IT COULD IMPACT TUESDAY MORNING
LOWS...AND IF THEY ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP COULD THEN IMPACT
TUESDAY/S HIGHS. BELIEVE THIS IS THE REASONING FOR THE 10 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE MET AND MAV
PRODUCTS AS THEY VARY FROM 70 TO 80 F AT KLBF FOR TUESDAY. IF
THERE IS NO CLOUDS OR IF THEY BREAK UP QUICKLY /WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW THEM STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON/ TUESDAY SHOULD BE
QUITE WARM AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN BRINGING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /NEARING 20C OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/ AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN...GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY /PENDING THE CLOUD COVER ISSUE/ SO SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE
TO MIX TO THE 850MB LEVEL AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS OF 30 TO
40KTS AT THAT LEVEL...IT WILL BE QUITE A WINDY DAY.

A FEW OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP A BIT WITH THE ONSET UP
RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM REMAINS DRY
UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS AS IT IS SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HOWEVER HAVE THE FRONT FROM ABOUT KIML TO KTIF TO KICR BY
12Z. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO OVER AN INCH IN PLACES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WILL BE LOOKING TO
BUILD SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MEAGER THOUGH...WITH LESS
THAN 700 J/KG AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY MINIMAL CAPE THINKING
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. THE MAIN PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH HASN/T
CHANGED...BUT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF THE RAIN. THE
RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY AS
IS IN THE FORECAST.

THEN MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE ON WEDNESDAY WILL DIG SOUTH INTO
EASTERN TEXAS THEN MAY SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
IN THE MEANTIME...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JUST HOW WARM IT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WHICH AT THIS POINT
VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY THOUGH...LOOKING
AT HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 10 KTS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB










000
FXUS63 KLBF 190848
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS BETRAYED GENERAL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS DISCERNIBLE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BUT THE
TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS IT WAS MINIMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION FROM NORTHERN
IDAHO TO NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IS LIKELY TO SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE OR NO
INFLUENCE ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES. WIND WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT THIS
EVENING...THUS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...THEN WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THERE IS
SOME DISCONTINUITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST...AND THUS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING
IMPACTING THE PLAINS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

BEGINNING ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE PLAINS AND AS A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING AT 12Z DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES C FROM WHAT WILL BE SEEN ON SUNDAY. NO CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SO SUNNY
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND
850-800MB. THIS WOULD PUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE
ALOFT...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD
CAUSE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. THAT BEING SAID...NOT LOOKING FOR WINDS TO
COMPLETELY DROP OFF TO CALM SO THE POTENTIAL COULD BE COLDER IF
WINDS DO IN FACT GO CALM.

A LITTLE WRENCH IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS
IF FOG OR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH
INTO NEBRASKA IN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WITH THE WINDS
THAT ARE EXPECTED WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF A STRATUS
DECK. IF THESE CLOUDS DO DEVELOP...IT COULD IMPACT TUESDAY MORNING
LOWS...AND IF THEY ARE SLOW TO BREAK UP COULD THEN IMPACT
TUESDAY/S HIGHS. BELIEVE THIS IS THE REASONING FOR THE 10 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE MET AND MAV
PRODUCTS AS THEY VARY FROM 70 TO 80 F AT KLBF FOR TUESDAY. IF
THERE IS NO CLOUDS OR IF THEY BREAK UP QUICKLY /WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW THEM STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON/ TUESDAY SHOULD BE
QUITE WARM AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN BRINGING THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /NEARING 20C OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/ AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AGAIN...GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY /PENDING THE CLOUD COVER ISSUE/ SO SHOULD EASILY BE ABLE
TO MIX TO THE 850MB LEVEL AND WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS OF 30 TO
40KTS AT THAT LEVEL...IT WILL BE QUITE A WINDY DAY.

A FEW OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SPED UP A BIT WITH THE ONSET UP
RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM REMAINS DRY
UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS AS IT IS SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HOWEVER HAVE THE FRONT FROM ABOUT KIML TO KTIF TO KICR BY
12Z. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN PASSES ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN QUICKLY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE
TO OVER AN INCH IN PLACES...WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WILL BE LOOKING TO
BUILD SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE MEAGER THOUGH...WITH LESS
THAN 700 J/KG AND SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY MINIMAL CAPE THINKING
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. THE MAIN PERIOD
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WHICH HASN/T
CHANGED...BUT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR THE BEGINNING AND ENDING OF THE RAIN. THE
RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY AS
IS IN THE FORECAST.

THEN MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH HERE ON WEDNESDAY WILL DIG SOUTH INTO
EASTERN TEXAS THEN MAY SLOWLY TRAVEL EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
IN THE MEANTIME...RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JUST HOW WARM IT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE WHICH AT THIS POINT
VARIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY THOUGH...LOOKING
AT HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 10 KTS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB











000
FXUS63 KLBF 190446
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1146 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID
AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS A TROUGH SETTLES EAST OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA WITH NO SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA.  A WEAK WAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...THIS WILL HELP FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA.  BESIDES A WIND SHIFT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH
LITTLE FAN-FARE AS ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  GOOD BL MIXING IS EXPECTED...SO SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THAT OF TODAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY AS MIXING PULLS DOWN H85
TEMPERATURES OF 15-17C SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS  A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS SHOWN BY THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS IS SOME 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER /OR MORE/ THAN OBSERVED READINGS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS
FROM NEAR 72 EAST TO 75-77 ACROSS THE WEST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE AND MODEL 2M TEMPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AND A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A
RESULT...POPS REMOVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMOVED IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. SO WHILE TIMING OF POPS HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...POPS CONTINUE AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER. CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE MID/UPPER 60S. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE 70S FOR DAY 6 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 7
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 10 KTS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 190446
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1146 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID
AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS A TROUGH SETTLES EAST OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA WITH NO SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA.  A WEAK WAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...THIS WILL HELP FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA.  BESIDES A WIND SHIFT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH
LITTLE FAN-FARE AS ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  GOOD BL MIXING IS EXPECTED...SO SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THAT OF TODAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY AS MIXING PULLS DOWN H85
TEMPERATURES OF 15-17C SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS  A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS SHOWN BY THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS IS SOME 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER /OR MORE/ THAN OBSERVED READINGS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS
FROM NEAR 72 EAST TO 75-77 ACROSS THE WEST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE AND MODEL 2M TEMPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AND A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A
RESULT...POPS REMOVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMOVED IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. SO WHILE TIMING OF POPS HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...POPS CONTINUE AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER. CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE MID/UPPER 60S. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE 70S FOR DAY 6 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 7
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 10 KTS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 190446
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1146 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID
AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS A TROUGH SETTLES EAST OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA WITH NO SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA.  A WEAK WAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...THIS WILL HELP FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA.  BESIDES A WIND SHIFT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH
LITTLE FAN-FARE AS ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  GOOD BL MIXING IS EXPECTED...SO SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THAT OF TODAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY AS MIXING PULLS DOWN H85
TEMPERATURES OF 15-17C SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS  A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS SHOWN BY THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS IS SOME 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER /OR MORE/ THAN OBSERVED READINGS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS
FROM NEAR 72 EAST TO 75-77 ACROSS THE WEST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE AND MODEL 2M TEMPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AND A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A
RESULT...POPS REMOVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMOVED IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. SO WHILE TIMING OF POPS HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...POPS CONTINUE AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER. CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE MID/UPPER 60S. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE 70S FOR DAY 6 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 7
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 10 KTS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 190446
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1146 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE 19.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID
AGREEMENT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS A TROUGH SETTLES EAST OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND A TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE PACIFIC WEST COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGH PLAINS OF NEBRASKA WITH NO SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA.  A WEAK WAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...THIS WILL HELP FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA.  BESIDES A WIND SHIFT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH
LITTLE FAN-FARE AS ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THUS DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.  GOOD BL MIXING IS EXPECTED...SO SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THAT OF TODAY.
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY AS MIXING PULLS DOWN H85
TEMPERATURES OF 15-17C SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS  A GREATER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS SHOWN BY THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS IS SOME 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
WARMER /OR MORE/ THAN OBSERVED READINGS SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPS
FROM NEAR 72 EAST TO 75-77 ACROSS THE WEST. GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
FROM MOS GUIDANCE AND MODEL 2M TEMPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BE SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AND A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
INDICATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS IN AN AREA JUST AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A
RESULT...POPS REMOVED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
REMOVED IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. SO WHILE TIMING OF POPS HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...POPS CONTINUE AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT
FOR WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SUPPORT MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS...WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW PWAT
VALUES INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH FOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER. CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE MID/UPPER 60S. A
FURTHER WARMUP INTO THE 70S FOR DAY 6 /FRIDAY/ AND DAY 7
/SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 10 KTS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB








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