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000
FXUS63 KLBF 011151
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 08Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR MCK. A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBR AS NARROW BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EXTREME NW KS. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NCTRL NEBR TO THE LOWER 60S ERN PNHDL. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NCTRL NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE NAM AND HRRR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ON
EXTREME SWRN NEBR. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE AN MCV EXITING DUNDY COUNTY.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO AREAS EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW
BY 18Z. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -TSRA TODAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY SATURATED FROM H7 TO H3...AND MUCH
DRIER H7 TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE IN SOME AREAS AND COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID MORNING WHILE THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THEN CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL WASH
OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS
NEAR 29C ERN PNHDLE SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. AREAS
EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW TO REACH THE UPPER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHC FOR -TSRA ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED FAVORED AREAS OF ANY
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE FA. THE RAP13 AND HRRR STILL INDICATE
LATE AFTN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST WHICH MAY LINGER THIS EVENING.
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM
NEAR 60 WESTERN SANDHILLS TO AROUND 65 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH VERY WARM TO HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/CAPPING INVERSION/ TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...AS BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THE FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS TONIGHT ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE INCHING TOWARD THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN AND NOW BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A FULL DAY LATER THAN IT
WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND IS STICKING TO A MONDAY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
TREND IS FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY TO NEAR 90...AND FOR SUNDAY
WILL WARM HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S.

A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS PRESSURE LOWERS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE 30 MPH GUSTS BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE. SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ALSO...AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY LABOR DAY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE JUST EXITED THE KLBF TERMINAL AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE KVTN TERMINAL THIS MORNING. SKIES
SCT080 BKN120 TO BECOME SCT200 BY 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING TO BECOME 15010KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 011151
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 08Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR MCK. A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBR AS NARROW BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EXTREME NW KS. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NCTRL NEBR TO THE LOWER 60S ERN PNHDL. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NCTRL NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE NAM AND HRRR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ON
EXTREME SWRN NEBR. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE AN MCV EXITING DUNDY COUNTY.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO AREAS EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW
BY 18Z. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -TSRA TODAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY SATURATED FROM H7 TO H3...AND MUCH
DRIER H7 TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE IN SOME AREAS AND COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID MORNING WHILE THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THEN CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL WASH
OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS
NEAR 29C ERN PNHDLE SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. AREAS
EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW TO REACH THE UPPER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHC FOR -TSRA ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED FAVORED AREAS OF ANY
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE FA. THE RAP13 AND HRRR STILL INDICATE
LATE AFTN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST WHICH MAY LINGER THIS EVENING.
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM
NEAR 60 WESTERN SANDHILLS TO AROUND 65 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH VERY WARM TO HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/CAPPING INVERSION/ TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...AS BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THE FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS TONIGHT ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE INCHING TOWARD THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN AND NOW BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A FULL DAY LATER THAN IT
WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND IS STICKING TO A MONDAY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
TREND IS FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY TO NEAR 90...AND FOR SUNDAY
WILL WARM HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S.

A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS PRESSURE LOWERS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE 30 MPH GUSTS BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE. SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ALSO...AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY LABOR DAY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

RAIN SHOWERS HAVE JUST EXITED THE KLBF TERMINAL AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE KVTN TERMINAL THIS MORNING. SKIES
SCT080 BKN120 TO BECOME SCT200 BY 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING TO BECOME 15010KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 010853
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 08Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR MCK. A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBR AS NARROW BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EXTREME NW KS. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NCTRL NEBR TO THE LOWER 60S ERN PNHDL. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NCTRL NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE NAM AND HRRR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ON
EXTREME SWRN NEBR. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE AN MCV EXITING DUNDY COUNTY.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO AREAS EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW
BY 18Z. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -TSRA TODAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY SATURATED FROM H7 TO H3...AND MUCH
DRIER H7 TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE IN SOME AREAS AND COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID MORNING WHILE THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THEN CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL WASH
OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS
NEAR 29C ERN PNHDLE SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. AREAS
EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW TO REACH THE UPPER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHC FOR -TSRA ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED FAVORED AREAS OF ANY
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE FA. THE RAP13 AND HRRR STILL INDICATE
LATE AFTN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST WHICH MAY LINGER THIS EVENING.
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM
NEAR 60 WESTERN SANDHILLS TO AROUND 65 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH VERY WARM TO HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/CAPPING INVERSION/ TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...AS BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THE FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS TONIGHT ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE INCHING TOWARD THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN AND NOW BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A FULL DAY LATER THAN IT
WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND IS STICKING TO A MONDAY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
TREND IS FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY TO NEAR 90...AND FOR SUNDAY
WILL WARM HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S.

A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS PRESSURE LOWERS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE 30 MPH GUSTS BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE. SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ALSO...AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY LABOR DAY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND SHOULD REACH LBF AFTER 08Z AND VTN AFTER 10Z. THERE
IS SOME DOUBT THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO VTN SO WE ARE INCLUDING
ONLY VCTS 12-14Z THERE. FOR LBF...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
THEY WILL GET THERE NEAR 08Z AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY
CONDITION OF 3SM TSRA 10-12Z. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ANW...ONL AND BBW BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS BUT HAIL...IF ANY WILL BE SMALL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 010853
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 08Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR MCK. A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEBR AS NARROW BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED SOUTH INTO EXTREME NW KS. TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NCTRL NEBR TO THE LOWER 60S ERN PNHDL. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NCTRL NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE NAM AND HRRR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ON
EXTREME SWRN NEBR. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE AN MCV EXITING DUNDY COUNTY.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO AREAS EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW
BY 18Z. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -TSRA TODAY.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY SATURATED FROM H7 TO H3...AND MUCH
DRIER H7 TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE IN SOME AREAS AND COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID MORNING WHILE THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...THEN CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING WILL WASH
OUT BY AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS
NEAR 29C ERN PNHDLE SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WEST. AREAS
EAST OF ANW THROUGH BBW TO REACH THE UPPER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...KEPT A SLIGHT CHC FOR -TSRA ACROSS THE EAST THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED FAVORED AREAS OF ANY
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE FA. THE RAP13 AND HRRR STILL INDICATE
LATE AFTN REDEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST WHICH MAY LINGER THIS EVENING.
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM
NEAR 60 WESTERN SANDHILLS TO AROUND 65 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
DURING THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH VERY WARM TO HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/CAPPING INVERSION/ TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...AS BETTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERALL THE FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK...AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS TONIGHT ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE INCHING TOWARD THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN AND NOW BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A FULL DAY LATER THAN IT
WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND IS STICKING TO A MONDAY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
TREND IS FOR A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY TO NEAR 90...AND FOR SUNDAY
WILL WARM HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE MID 80S.

A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS PRESSURE LOWERS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE 30 MPH GUSTS BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST
OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE. SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO HAVE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ALSO...AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BY LABOR DAY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SETTLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND SHOULD REACH LBF AFTER 08Z AND VTN AFTER 10Z. THERE
IS SOME DOUBT THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO VTN SO WE ARE INCLUDING
ONLY VCTS 12-14Z THERE. FOR LBF...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
THEY WILL GET THERE NEAR 08Z AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY
CONDITION OF 3SM TSRA 10-12Z. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ANW...ONL AND BBW BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS BUT HAIL...IF ANY WILL BE SMALL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 010441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS AND
RADAR ALL INDICATE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR LIFTING UP
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INCREASED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND SHOULD REACH LBF AFTER 08Z AND VTN AFTER 10Z. THERE
IS SOME DOUBT THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO VTN SO WE ARE INCLUDING
ONLY VCTS 12-14Z THERE. FOR LBF...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
THEY WILL GET THERE NEAR 08Z AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY
CONDITION OF 3SM TSRA 10-12Z. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ANW...ONL AND BBW BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS BUT HAIL...IF ANY WILL BE SMALL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 010441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS AND
RADAR ALL INDICATE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR LIFTING UP
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INCREASED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND SHOULD REACH LBF AFTER 08Z AND VTN AFTER 10Z. THERE
IS SOME DOUBT THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO VTN SO WE ARE INCLUDING
ONLY VCTS 12-14Z THERE. FOR LBF...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
THEY WILL GET THERE NEAR 08Z AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY
CONDITION OF 3SM TSRA 10-12Z. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ANW...ONL AND BBW BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS BUT HAIL...IF ANY WILL BE SMALL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 010441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS AND
RADAR ALL INDICATE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR LIFTING UP
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INCREASED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND SHOULD REACH LBF AFTER 08Z AND VTN AFTER 10Z. THERE
IS SOME DOUBT THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO VTN SO WE ARE INCLUDING
ONLY VCTS 12-14Z THERE. FOR LBF...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
THEY WILL GET THERE NEAR 08Z AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY
CONDITION OF 3SM TSRA 10-12Z. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ANW...ONL AND BBW BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS BUT HAIL...IF ANY WILL BE SMALL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 010441
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1141 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS AND
RADAR ALL INDICATE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR LIFTING UP
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INCREASED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND SHOULD REACH LBF AFTER 08Z AND VTN AFTER 10Z. THERE
IS SOME DOUBT THAT THEY WILL MAKE IT TO VTN SO WE ARE INCLUDING
ONLY VCTS 12-14Z THERE. FOR LBF...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
THEY WILL GET THERE NEAR 08Z AND WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPORARY
CONDITION OF 3SM TSRA 10-12Z. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
ANW...ONL AND BBW BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS BUT HAIL...IF ANY WILL BE SMALL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 010022
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
722 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS AND
RADAR ALL INDICATE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR LIFTING UP
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INCREASED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-TIF-OGA LINE. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BUT...BECAUSE THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND GO THROUGH LBF
03-09Z AND POSSIBLY REACHING BBW 11-14Z IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER
THAT LONG. OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
LIKELY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 010022
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
722 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS AND
RADAR ALL INDICATE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR LIFTING UP
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INCREASED THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-TIF-OGA LINE. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BUT...BECAUSE THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND GO THROUGH LBF
03-09Z AND POSSIBLY REACHING BBW 11-14Z IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER
THAT LONG. OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
LIKELY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 312340
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-TIF-OGA LINE. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BUT...BECAUSE THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND GO THROUGH LBF
03-09Z AND POSSIBLY REACHING BBW 11-14Z IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER
THAT LONG. OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 312340
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-TIF-OGA LINE. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT BUT...BECAUSE THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND GO THROUGH LBF
03-09Z AND POSSIBLY REACHING BBW 11-14Z IF IT CAN HOLD TOGETHER
THAT LONG. OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 311947
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
247 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM
CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE AND
SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF
STORMS HAVE JUST CARRIED VCTS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 311947
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
247 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM
CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE AND
SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF
STORMS HAVE JUST CARRIED VCTS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 311947
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
247 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM
CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE AND
SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF
STORMS HAVE JUST CARRIED VCTS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 311947
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
247 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

H5 HAND ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER SERN
ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SEWD INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS BROKEN OFF FROM THE MAIN
PACIFIC TROUGH...WAS LIFTING ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH 100
METER FALLS NOTED AT GLASGOW MT THIS MORNING. A 50 KT JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MT INTO ND AND FAR SRN MANITOBA THIS
MORNING. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A WELL ESTABLISHED RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN CANADA. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOWER 48...A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EXTENDED
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
OZARKS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. STRONG SHORTWAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGH WERE LOCATED OVER SWRN ARK AND FAR SRN TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SWRN NEBRASKA
AROUND IMPERIAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA JUST WEST OF ONEILL.
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST AND CLEAR SKIES IN THE
EAST...2 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 83 VALENTINE TO 92 AT
IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR ANW
THROUGH IMPERIAL TONIGHT. WEAK RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY CONTINUE
FROM WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH THE SIDNEY AREA. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST EMERGING ONTO THE DENVER FRONT RANGE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE TO 20-30 PERCENT
THIS EVENING FROM SWRN NEBR INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NCTRL
NEBR ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE HWY 83 EAST TO NEAR ONEILL AND BURWELL AS
LOW LEVEL JET INFLUENCE DIMINISHES.

THE SURFACE FRONT WASHES OUT TUESDAY WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF NORTH PLATTE THORUGH AINSWORTH. WITH FRONT
WASHING OUT...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 90S WEST TO UPPER
80S CENTRAL AND EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE MID RANGE...ALONG WITH ANY MINUTE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...INHERITED FCST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SRN AND EASTERN CWA. THIS WAS CONTINGENT ON A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE WASHED THIS BOUNDARY
OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA WILL PASS THROUGH THE
EASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING...EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO CUT POPS OUT OF THE FCST
AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DID GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE EASTERN ZONES TUES EVE AS FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL WAA DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MID EVENING.
SHIFTING TO WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...INTO ALBERTA WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE PATTERN TO RE-AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
RISING H5 HTS WEDS INTO THURSDAY. A NICE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS APPROACHING 30C IN THE PANHANDLE
BOTH WEDS AND THUS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF READINGS APPG 100 DEGREES IN
THE FAR WEST. SFC DEW POINTS WILL FALL OFF INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S AS THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS FAR ERN
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM RH/S OF 15 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS BOTH DAYS. ATTM THE
ONLY ASPECT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CWA IF A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THESE AREAS. WILL BE MENTIONING THE
FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR WEDS AND THUS IN THE AFTERNOON RELEASE OF THE
HWO.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S. WINDS ON FRIDAY EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL AS
LOW PRESSURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...DEEPENS OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER EXTREME TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DAY APPEARS LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN...ALBEIT...FURTHER EAST THAN WEDS AND THURSDAYS THREAT.
WILL BE MENTIONING THIS AS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. ON SATURDAY
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
PAC NW...ENTERING MONTANA AND IDAHO. THIS WILL FORCE THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE FURTHER EAST WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA. HIGHS COULD ECLIPSE THE LOWER 90S IN THE EAST AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED IN THE EAST...FIRE DANGER
WOULD BE A CONCERN...HOWEVER...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S IN THESE AREAS...SO MIN RH WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...FORCING THE PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...ALBEIT NOT THE 90S WE ARE EXPECTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. ALONG WITH A
DECENT THREAT FOR PCPN...MUCH COOLER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S SUNDAY...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY. WITH RESPECT TO PCPN
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED. THE LATEST GFS SOLN CONTINUES TO INDICATE
INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DID NOT FEEL ANY REASON TO CUT POPS FROM THE INHERITED
FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM
CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE AND
SPREADING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF
STORMS HAVE JUST CARRIED VCTS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 311145 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM IN PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME ONGOING SHOWERS VIRGA
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION. FRONT JUST INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ONLY 1MB WITH 4MB CHANGE OVER MONTANA. FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH. COOLER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD INSOLATION AND
FAIRLY STRONG WAA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90. FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT WILL
GIVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE RETAINED MOSTLY SCHC POPS ALONG THE STALLED
OUT FRONT THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THUS LOWER
POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA MIDWEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK
ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. .

CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SLIM UNTIL LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT AND
HAS IT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT DELAYING THE PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING . THE
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE ECMWF HOLDING BACK THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A RATHER
DIFFICULT FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FEEL THE
BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN FROM NEAR 90 FRIDAY TO
80S SATURDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. BASES ARE AOA BKN060. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 3SM. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE AND SPREADING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS HAVE
JUST CARRIED VCTS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 311145 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM IN PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME ONGOING SHOWERS VIRGA
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION. FRONT JUST INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ONLY 1MB WITH 4MB CHANGE OVER MONTANA. FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH. COOLER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD INSOLATION AND
FAIRLY STRONG WAA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90. FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT WILL
GIVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE RETAINED MOSTLY SCHC POPS ALONG THE STALLED
OUT FRONT THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THUS LOWER
POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA MIDWEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK
ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. .

CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SLIM UNTIL LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT AND
HAS IT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT DELAYING THE PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING . THE
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE ECMWF HOLDING BACK THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A RATHER
DIFFICULT FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FEEL THE
BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN FROM NEAR 90 FRIDAY TO
80S SATURDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. BASES ARE AOA BKN060. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 3SM. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE AND SPREADING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS HAVE
JUST CARRIED VCTS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 311145 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM IN PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME ONGOING SHOWERS VIRGA
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION. FRONT JUST INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ONLY 1MB WITH 4MB CHANGE OVER MONTANA. FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH. COOLER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD INSOLATION AND
FAIRLY STRONG WAA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90. FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT WILL
GIVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE RETAINED MOSTLY SCHC POPS ALONG THE STALLED
OUT FRONT THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THUS LOWER
POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA MIDWEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK
ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. .

CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SLIM UNTIL LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT AND
HAS IT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT DELAYING THE PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING . THE
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE ECMWF HOLDING BACK THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A RATHER
DIFFICULT FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FEEL THE
BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN FROM NEAR 90 FRIDAY TO
80S SATURDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. BASES ARE AOA BKN060. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 3SM. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE AND SPREADING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS HAVE
JUST CARRIED VCTS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 311145 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM IN PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME ONGOING SHOWERS VIRGA
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION. FRONT JUST INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ONLY 1MB WITH 4MB CHANGE OVER MONTANA. FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH. COOLER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD INSOLATION AND
FAIRLY STRONG WAA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90. FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT WILL
GIVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE RETAINED MOSTLY SCHC POPS ALONG THE STALLED
OUT FRONT THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THUS LOWER
POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA MIDWEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK
ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. .

CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SLIM UNTIL LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT AND
HAS IT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT DELAYING THE PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING . THE
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE ECMWF HOLDING BACK THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A RATHER
DIFFICULT FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FEEL THE
BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN FROM NEAR 90 FRIDAY TO
80S SATURDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. BASES ARE AOA BKN060. THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY ABOVE 3SM. A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
STALL OUT ALONG A LINE FROM KOGA TO KANW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE LINE AND SPREADING
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS HAVE
JUST CARRIED VCTS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 310845
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM IN PUSHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME ONGOING SHOWERS VIRGA
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND NAM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM SOLUTION. FRONT JUST INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA ONLY 1MB WITH 4MB CHANGE OVER MONTANA. FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG A LINE FROM
OGALLALA TO AINSWORTH. COOLER OVER NORTHWEST ZONES TODAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. GOOD INSOLATION AND
FAIRLY STRONG WAA OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90. FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING AROUND
THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT WILL
GIVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS EARLY
THIS EVENING BUT HAVE RETAINED MOSTLY SCHC POPS ALONG THE STALLED
OUT FRONT THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THUS LOWER
POPS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA MIDWEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK
ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. .

CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE SLIM UNTIL LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN BETTER
UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY /30 PERCENT/
DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FRONT AND
HAS IT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT DELAYING THE PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING . THE
DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE ECMWF HOLDING BACK THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LONGER THAN THE GFS. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE
GFS AND A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A RATHER
DIFFICULT FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND. FEEL THE
BEST APPROACH AT THIS POINT IS TO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND HIGHS DOWN FROM NEAR 90 FRIDAY TO
80S SATURDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN COLO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z MONDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE SANDHILLS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 310425 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN COLO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z MONDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE SANDHILLS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 310425 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN COLO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SWRN NEB AROUND 21Z MONDAY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SWRN NEB AND THE SANDHILLS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
ARIZONA TO WYOMING SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.

ASOS HAS IDENTIFIED A THIN SMOKE LAYER ACROSS WRN NEB FROM KVTN
TO KIML. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY PERHAPS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
ARIZONA TO WYOMING SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.

ASOS HAS IDENTIFIED A THIN SMOKE LAYER ACROSS WRN NEB FROM KVTN
TO KIML. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY PERHAPS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 302328 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
ARIZONA TO WYOMING SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.

ASOS HAS IDENTIFIED A THIN SMOKE LAYER ACROSS WRN NEB FROM KVTN
TO KIML. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY PERHAPS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 302051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 302051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN





000
FXUS63 KLBF 302051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 302051
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAS ONLY CHANGED SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OVER SERN ALASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA TO
NORTHWESTERN OREGON. HT FALLS OF 50 TO 60 METERS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
TROUGH WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN OREGON INTO WESTERN MT THIS MORNING.
MID LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED AS
WELL WITH ONLY A 50 KT JET STREAK NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
SRN WASHINGTON STATE. EAST OF THIS TROUGH...RIDGING CONTINUED NORTH
OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ERN COLORADO. THIS RIDGE EXTENDED INTO
NORTHERN CANADA...WITH LITTLE OR NO HT CHANGES NOTED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A WEAK WAVE WAS PRESENT OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW NOTED ALONG THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT OVER NWRN ND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE...INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW OF THE LOW INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MT. SKIES THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH SOME LIMITED HIGH CLOUDS NOTED OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN
ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...A VEIL OF HAZE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE WILD
FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGED FROM 87
AT ONEILL TO 96 AT VALENTINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ANOTHER MILD NIGHT EXPECTED THANKS TO HIGH HAZE/SMOKE...FROM
CANADIAN/PAC NW FIRES. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS LL JET KICKS IN AND
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS SOMEWHAT MIXED. LOCALLY IN THE VALLEYS...WINDS
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...HOWEVER MOST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO
15 TO 20 MPH.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP
EXPECTED. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST INTO N CENTRAL WILL BE WARMER...AND
COULD SEE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S.
MEANWHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WAVE WILL NOSE INTO SW NEB LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH THE WAVE AND BRINGS ACTIVITY IN BY
MID AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED LOW POPS ACROSS FAR SW TO
ACCOUNT...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN THE MID RANGE...THE SMALL THREAT
FOR PCPN...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE LIKE A WIND
SHIFT LINE GIVEN THE LITTLE OR NO TEMP CHANGE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND TRACK
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LEWELLEN TO EWING. THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL
WAA OVERNIGHT. THIS FAVORABLE MID LEVEL WAA TRACKS FROM FAR SWRN
NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL NEBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ON TUESDAY
MORNING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT...ELIMINATING ANY
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO NERN COLORADO. MID LEVEL WAA WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NERN COLORADO...LIFTING NE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE OVER SWRN CANADA. INCREASING HTS
ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS...WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FCST FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EAST ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC
NW...LIFTING EAST AS AN OPEN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST
RETAINED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES INTO THE ROCKIES.
ATTM...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHEN A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
HOT WITH UPPER 80S AND 90S EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
80S FOR SATURDAY...WITH 70S NEXT SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN





000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN





000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN





000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS...WITH HIGH CIRRUS/HAZE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED NEAR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR
SUNSET AT KLBF...BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 20KTS AT KVTN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW
MORNING...REACHING KVTN AROUND 11Z....AND KLBF AROUND 15Z. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEAR KVTN AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES...FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WERE THE FORCING WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK/MOLDAN




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301130 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH VFR
CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 301130 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH VFR
CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 301130 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH VFR
CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 301130 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH VFR
CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 300858
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WITH SMALL DEWPOINT SPREADS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS JUST TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA HAVE
RETAINED SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. FAIRLY STRONG LLJ KEEPING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS UP SO IT COULD BE HARD TO FORM. SURFACE
TROUGH LYING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW TO MID 90S
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN CAPPED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS COOL FRONT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AT TIME HEIGHTS WOULD EXPECT HIGH
BASED STORMS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR OVER NIGHT LOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES WILL CREATE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS TRENDING
A BIT FASTER...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ONEILL
TO BROKEN BOW TO MCCOOK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
MONDAY EVENING AND BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF TSTMS. CAPPING
ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL KEEP STORMS ISOLATED SO
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S. BY LABOR DAY WEEKEND...A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE A BIT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE A DIFFERENT ON THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING. THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THOUGH LATE SATURDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE WEEKEND LOOKING
DECENT...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAY BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE 70S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT
THAT IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD SO WON/T SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON
THAT DAY OR LABOR DAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300508 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...POWER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 300508 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...POWER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 300508 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...POWER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 292325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 292325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SPARSE AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG
MAY FORM IN THE PLATTE VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 292048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 292048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 292048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 292048
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WAS PRESENT FROM
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...SWD TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA THIS MORNING.
DECENT HT FALLS OF 50 TO 100 METERS WERE NOTED FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA. JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A NICE 70 TO 90 KT
H5 JET EXTENDED FROM NRN CA INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS TROUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NW TERRITORIES OF
CANADA. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN ILLINOIS...WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH TO EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...HOWEVER...A VEIL OF HAZE AND SMOKE ALOFT WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 3 PM CDT HOUR...RANGED
FROM 85 AT ONEILL TO 92 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERN IS MAINLY TEMPS AND FOG. SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES CAUSING
HAZY SKIES...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS TO ONLY HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
THUS OVERNIGHT HAVE BLENDED GUIDANCE TO SIDED ON THE WARM SIDE WHICH
DROPS TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 50S. THERE IS A NOCTURNAL LL
JET THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND NOSES INTO S CENTRAL S
DAKOTA. EXPECT THE JET TO KEEP LOWS THERE THE MILDEST. AS FOR THE
FOG...LIMITED MIXING TODAY IN THE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF N
CENTRAL...WHERE FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...EVEN THOUGH THE SHREF PLUMS SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST. PART OF THE REASONING WAS THE
SHREF PLUMS YESTERDAY WERE NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR WHAT RESULTED
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

TOMORROW THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH THE
THERMAL RIDGE TO BE ACROSS NW NEB. THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE TAKES THE NW TO TRIPLE DIGITS...HOWEVER THE HAZE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AND PREVENT THEM FROM TORCHING OUT. ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE WEST. DRY LINE PUSHES DEW
PTS INTO THE 40S AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ALSO GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE NOT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

IN THE MID RANGE...A FROPA...AND
LIMITED PCPN CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERNS. ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...INTO FAR NWRN ND BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS FARILY
IMPRESSIVE ATTM...HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS ARE INDICATIVE
OF VERY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA...SO ANY
CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOPS...WILL BE PRETTY ELEVATED. WITH THIS
IN MIND...WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. ALSO...WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY SLOWER NOW...HAVE CONFINED POPS TO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND TAKEN THEM OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...STALLING THIS ACROSS SWRN
TO NERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ON
MONDAY...FELT MOISTURE...AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WAS LACKING
CONSIDERABLY INVOF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SUNDAYS...AS THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY PEAK
HEATING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN NRN NEBRASKA...TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SWRN...CENTRAL AND NERN NEBRASKA MONDAY EVENING.
AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO SRN NEBRASKA AND NRN KS...INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SB CAPES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT...WILL REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG A NARROW
CORRIDOR IN THE EASTERN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR IS
ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS MONDAY EVENING...SO SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. INHERITED FCST HAD A STRIP OF 20 POPS
ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY WILL BE CONTINUED. FOR TUESDAY...THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THIS WILL FORCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUES
AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LIFT...WILL BRING PCPN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE TUES.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCLUDING THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLNS...TREND TOWARD BUILDING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH A TROUGH
NOTED ALONG THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...USUALLY
CONDUCIVE TO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 50S NEXT WEEK...AND WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PCPN...WENT WITH A DRY FCST. I DID HOWEVER
BEGIN TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST...SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS H5 TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MASEK




000
FXUS63 KLBF 291810
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
110 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 291810
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
110 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN THIS MORNING. WILL
CARRY THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE RETAINED PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND GOOD
INSOLATION OVER THE WEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TOWARDS SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
RADIATING OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHOULD KEEP
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY AT BAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY LOWERING PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION. AS
A RESULT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. INDICATIONS
ARE THAT 30 MPH GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH 25 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED TSTMS...BUT CAPPING ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN AND WILL NOT GO
BEYOND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED A SERIES OF SHORTAVES ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THESE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MAINTAINING
NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION...AND WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING EXPECT A CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR WITH SOME HIGH HAZE/CIRRUS DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SKIES CLEAR...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME
HIGH HAZE/SMOKE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NW FIRES.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND EXPECT A REDEVELOPMENT
OF FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW INTO N CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
INCLUDED AT KLBF...HOWEVER EXPECT FOG TO BE SE OF THE KVTN
TERMINAL. TOMORROW A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK




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