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000
FXUS63 KLBF 300423 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. STRONG
RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WEST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WEST. 500
MB LOW ROTATING ACROSS UTAH WITH A DECENT PLUM OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. NW FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY COOL
CANADIAN SFC HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 AT 3 PM
CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EYES ON THE SHORT WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MORNING
LBF SOUNDING HAD PWATS OF 1.11 /115 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND EXPECT
THIS TO INCREASE TO NEARLY AN INCH AN HALF ACROSS SW NEB OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE TO
THE SE. MUCH OF N CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO GET MISSED...HOWEVER SW
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NW NEB SHOULD SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
WAVE. MOISTURE IS GOOD HOWEVER LIFT IS MARGINAL. THERE ARE NEGATIVE
LI/S...AND POSITIVE CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR AUGUST SO SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOWER STORM MOTION AND THE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY. THIS MORNING LOCALLY A HALF INCH FELL
WITH SOME OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO THE SW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
FAR TO THE EAST THE STRONGER STORMS WILL MAKE IT. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NOT TO FAR FROM NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LINGER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW ACROSS SW NEB. COOLEST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SW WHERE SUN WILL BE LAST TO SHINE...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 80. LOWER 80S AND MAYBE MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH...HOWEVER STILL SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO...WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AGAIN. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE ACROSS NEBRASKA AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO REAL SIGNAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED
PRECIPITATION. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
HOWEVER...AS SUBTLE WAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...AS THESE WAVES ARE HARD TO
IDENTIFY THIS FAR OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. NO OTHER TSTM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVER THE PAST DAY THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELEASES FROM LAKE
MCCONAUGHY OF AROUND 400 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWN STREAM FROM LAKE MAC...HOWEVER THE RIVER WILL
REMAIN WELL IN ITS BANK. A RVS IS ISSUED FOR AN ELEVATED NORTH
PLATTE RIVER LEVEL AT NORTH PLATTE...HOWEVER NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 300423 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. STRONG
RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WEST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WEST. 500
MB LOW ROTATING ACROSS UTAH WITH A DECENT PLUM OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. NW FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY COOL
CANADIAN SFC HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 AT 3 PM
CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EYES ON THE SHORT WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MORNING
LBF SOUNDING HAD PWATS OF 1.11 /115 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND EXPECT
THIS TO INCREASE TO NEARLY AN INCH AN HALF ACROSS SW NEB OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE TO
THE SE. MUCH OF N CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO GET MISSED...HOWEVER SW
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NW NEB SHOULD SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
WAVE. MOISTURE IS GOOD HOWEVER LIFT IS MARGINAL. THERE ARE NEGATIVE
LI/S...AND POSITIVE CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR AUGUST SO SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOWER STORM MOTION AND THE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY. THIS MORNING LOCALLY A HALF INCH FELL
WITH SOME OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO THE SW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
FAR TO THE EAST THE STRONGER STORMS WILL MAKE IT. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NOT TO FAR FROM NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LINGER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW ACROSS SW NEB. COOLEST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SW WHERE SUN WILL BE LAST TO SHINE...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 80. LOWER 80S AND MAYBE MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH...HOWEVER STILL SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO...WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AGAIN. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE ACROSS NEBRASKA AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO REAL SIGNAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED
PRECIPITATION. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
HOWEVER...AS SUBTLE WAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...AS THESE WAVES ARE HARD TO
IDENTIFY THIS FAR OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB. NO OTHER TSTM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVER THE PAST DAY THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELEASES FROM LAKE
MCCONAUGHY OF AROUND 400 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWN STREAM FROM LAKE MAC...HOWEVER THE RIVER WILL
REMAIN WELL IN ITS BANK. A RVS IS ISSUED FOR AN ELEVATED NORTH
PLATTE RIVER LEVEL AT NORTH PLATTE...HOWEVER NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292327 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. STRONG
RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WEST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WEST. 500
MB LOW ROTATING ACROSS UTAH WITH A DECENT PLUM OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. NW FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY COOL
CANADIAN SFC HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 AT 3 PM
CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EYES ON THE SHORT WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MORNING
LBF SOUNDING HAD PWATS OF 1.11 /115 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND EXPECT
THIS TO INCREASE TO NEARLY AN INCH AN HALF ACROSS SW NEB OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE TO
THE SE. MUCH OF N CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO GET MISSED...HOWEVER SW
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NW NEB SHOULD SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
WAVE. MOISTURE IS GOOD HOWEVER LIFT IS MARGINAL. THERE ARE NEGATIVE
LI/S...AND POSITIVE CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR AUGUST SO SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOWER STORM MOTION AND THE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY. THIS MORNING LOCALLY A HALF INCH FELL
WITH SOME OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO THE SW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
FAR TO THE EAST THE STRONGER STORMS WILL MAKE IT. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NOT TO FAR FROM NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LINGER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW ACROSS SW NEB. COOLEST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SW WHERE SUN WILL BE LAST TO SHINE...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 80. LOWER 80S AND MAYBE MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH...HOWEVER STILL SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO...WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AGAIN. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE ACROSS NEBRASKA AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO REAL SIGNAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED
PRECIPITATION. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
HOWEVER...AS SUBTLE WAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...AS THESE WAVES ARE HARD TO
IDENTIFY THIS FAR OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

IFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEB SHOULD MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. NO OTHER TSTM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVER THE PAST DAY THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELEASES FROM LAKE
MCCONAUGHY OF AROUND 400 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWN STREAM FROM LAKE MAC...HOWEVER THE RIVER WILL
REMAIN WELL IN ITS BANK. A RVS IS ISSUED FOR AN ELEVATED NORTH
PLATTE RIVER LEVEL AT NORTH PLATTE...HOWEVER NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292327 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. STRONG
RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WEST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WEST. 500
MB LOW ROTATING ACROSS UTAH WITH A DECENT PLUM OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. NW FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY COOL
CANADIAN SFC HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 AT 3 PM
CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EYES ON THE SHORT WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MORNING
LBF SOUNDING HAD PWATS OF 1.11 /115 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND EXPECT
THIS TO INCREASE TO NEARLY AN INCH AN HALF ACROSS SW NEB OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE TO
THE SE. MUCH OF N CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO GET MISSED...HOWEVER SW
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NW NEB SHOULD SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
WAVE. MOISTURE IS GOOD HOWEVER LIFT IS MARGINAL. THERE ARE NEGATIVE
LI/S...AND POSITIVE CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR AUGUST SO SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOWER STORM MOTION AND THE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY. THIS MORNING LOCALLY A HALF INCH FELL
WITH SOME OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO THE SW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
FAR TO THE EAST THE STRONGER STORMS WILL MAKE IT. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NOT TO FAR FROM NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LINGER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW ACROSS SW NEB. COOLEST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SW WHERE SUN WILL BE LAST TO SHINE...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 80. LOWER 80S AND MAYBE MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH...HOWEVER STILL SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO...WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AGAIN. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE ACROSS NEBRASKA AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO REAL SIGNAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED
PRECIPITATION. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
HOWEVER...AS SUBTLE WAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...AS THESE WAVES ARE HARD TO
IDENTIFY THIS FAR OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

IFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS WRN NEB SHOULD MOVE MOSTLY SOUTH
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. NO OTHER TSTM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVER THE PAST DAY THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELEASES FROM LAKE
MCCONAUGHY OF AROUND 400 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWN STREAM FROM LAKE MAC...HOWEVER THE RIVER WILL
REMAIN WELL IN ITS BANK. A RVS IS ISSUED FOR AN ELEVATED NORTH
PLATTE RIVER LEVEL AT NORTH PLATTE...HOWEVER NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 292049
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. STRONG
RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WEST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WEST. 500
MB LOW ROTATING ACROSS UTAH WITH A DECENT PLUM OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. NW FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY COOL
CANADIAN SFC HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 AT 3 PM
CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EYES ON THE SHORT WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MORNING
LBF SOUNDING HAD PWATS OF 1.11 /115 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND EXPECT
THIS TO INCREASE TO NEARLY AN INCH AN HALF ACROSS SW NEB OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE TO
THE SE. MUCH OF N CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO GET MISSED...HOWEVER SW
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NW NEB SHOULD SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
WAVE. MOISTURE IS GOOD HOWEVER LIFT IS MARGINAL. THERE ARE NEGATIVE
LI/S...AND POSITIVE CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR AUGUST SO SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOWER STORM MOTION AND THE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY. THIS MORNING LOCALLY A HALF INCH FELL
WITH SOME OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO THE SW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
FAR TO THE EAST THE STRONGER STORMS WILL MAKE IT. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NOT TO FAR FROM NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LINGER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW ACROSS SW NEB. COOLEST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SW WHERE SUN WILL BE LAST TO SHINE...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 80. LOWER 80S AND MAYBE MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH...HOWEVER STILL SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO...WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AGAIN. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE ACROSS NEBRASKA AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO REAL SIGNAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED
PRECIPITATION. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
HOWEVER...AS SUBTLE WAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...AS THESE WAVES ARE HARD TO
IDENTIFY THIS FAR OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS HOWEVER. RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF KVTN...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 30/00Z. FARTHER SOUTH...A
MORE DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF
KLBF...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE PRIMARILY FROM 06/08Z THROUGH 06/12Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVER THE PAST DAY THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELEASES FROM LAKE
MCCONAUGHY OF AROUND 400 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWN STREAM FROM LAKE MAC...HOWEVER THE RIVER WILL
REMAIN WELL IN ITS BANK. A RVS IS ISSUED FOR AN ELEVATED NORTH
PLATTE RIVER LEVEL AT NORTH PLATTE...HOWEVER NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...DS/MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KLBF 292049
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY. STRONG
RIDGE IS ACROSS THE WEST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WEST. 500
MB LOW ROTATING ACROSS UTAH WITH A DECENT PLUM OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. NW FLOW HAS BROUGHT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. STILL INFLUENCED BY COOL
CANADIAN SFC HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 AT 3 PM
CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EYES ON THE SHORT WAVE RIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MORNING
LBF SOUNDING HAD PWATS OF 1.11 /115 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AND EXPECT
THIS TO INCREASE TO NEARLY AN INCH AN HALF ACROSS SW NEB OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE TO
THE SE. MUCH OF N CENTRAL IS EXPECTED TO GET MISSED...HOWEVER SW
NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NW NEB SHOULD SEE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE
WAVE. MOISTURE IS GOOD HOWEVER LIFT IS MARGINAL. THERE ARE NEGATIVE
LI/S...AND POSITIVE CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY FOR AUGUST SO SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOWER STORM MOTION AND THE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY. THIS MORNING LOCALLY A HALF INCH FELL
WITH SOME OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO THE SW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW
FAR TO THE EAST THE STRONGER STORMS WILL MAKE IT. THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL KEEP LOWS NOT TO FAR FROM NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LINGER ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR TOMORROW ACROSS SW NEB. COOLEST
CONDITIONS ACROSS SW WHERE SUN WILL BE LAST TO SHINE...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 80. LOWER 80S AND MAYBE MID 80S ACROSS THE
NORTH...HOWEVER STILL SEEING THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO...WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND NORTH AND EAST AGAIN. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE ACROSS NEBRASKA AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS NO REAL SIGNAL FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEEDED
PRECIPITATION. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
HOWEVER...AS SUBTLE WAVES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...AS THESE WAVES ARE HARD TO
IDENTIFY THIS FAR OUT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
COULD BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS HOWEVER. RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF KVTN...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 30/00Z. FARTHER SOUTH...A
MORE DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF
KLBF...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE PRIMARILY FROM 06/08Z THROUGH 06/12Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVER THE PAST DAY THERE HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELEASES FROM LAKE
MCCONAUGHY OF AROUND 400 CFS. THIS WILL CAUSE A RISE IN THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER DOWN STREAM FROM LAKE MAC...HOWEVER THE RIVER WILL
REMAIN WELL IN ITS BANK. A RVS IS ISSUED FOR AN ELEVATED NORTH
PLATTE RIVER LEVEL AT NORTH PLATTE...HOWEVER NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...DS/MASEK
HYDROLOGY...MASEK





000
FXUS63 KLBF 291721
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS ALONG A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO ORD. WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
MONTANA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE SEEN ROUNDING THE
WESTERLY RIDGE IN WATER VAPOR. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE
COOL AIR TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED. TRAJECTORY OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WOULD
CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN
REMAIN FAIRLY ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS SEEMED SLIGHTLY
OVER DONE WITH QPF AND PRECIPITATION WHILE NAM HAS HAD A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT FOR THE LAST
TWO DAYS. HAVE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IN CWA. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CARRIED
SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING RETURNS
AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF THIS FLOW STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE RIDGE INTO COLORADO AND FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COULD
COME A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGHTS CONTINUE THAT THE
MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE PATHS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED THE SOUTHERLY TREND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIPITATION LOCALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PLAY A BIG PART IN HOW WARM THOSE AREAS GET. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SO ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE COOLER HIGHS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 700MB THAT
GETS PULLED ACROSS THE AREA BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
LOOKING TO BE QUITE STEEP AND ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL LIFT...THERE
IS SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AS THE NAM HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON
THIS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE HESITANT WITH ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM
AND ARW ARE JUST STARTING TO RUN OUT INTO THIS PERIOD AND BOTH DO
DEVELOP SOME SHORT LIVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AS
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND JUST DON/T KNOW IF THERE IS ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOPE THE MODELS START COMING TO MORE
OF A CONSENSUS TO DETERMINE IF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT
IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
WILL STAY THE SAME...IT WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE
ISN/T A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS ON
THIS OCCURRING...AND IF IT DOES...THE PATH OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCH UP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
COOLING MOST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SO FOR SUNDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
WITH THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A FOCUS ACROSS WYOMING
AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...FOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PUTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS HOWEVER. RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF KVTN...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 30/00Z. FARTHER SOUTH...A
MORE DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF
KLBF...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE PRIMARILY FROM 06/08Z THROUGH 06/12Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...DS/MASEK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291721
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS ALONG A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO ORD. WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
MONTANA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE SEEN ROUNDING THE
WESTERLY RIDGE IN WATER VAPOR. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE
COOL AIR TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED. TRAJECTORY OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WOULD
CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN
REMAIN FAIRLY ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS SEEMED SLIGHTLY
OVER DONE WITH QPF AND PRECIPITATION WHILE NAM HAS HAD A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT FOR THE LAST
TWO DAYS. HAVE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IN CWA. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CARRIED
SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING RETURNS
AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF THIS FLOW STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE RIDGE INTO COLORADO AND FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COULD
COME A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGHTS CONTINUE THAT THE
MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE PATHS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED THE SOUTHERLY TREND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIPITATION LOCALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PLAY A BIG PART IN HOW WARM THOSE AREAS GET. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SO ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE COOLER HIGHS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 700MB THAT
GETS PULLED ACROSS THE AREA BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
LOOKING TO BE QUITE STEEP AND ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL LIFT...THERE
IS SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AS THE NAM HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON
THIS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE HESITANT WITH ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM
AND ARW ARE JUST STARTING TO RUN OUT INTO THIS PERIOD AND BOTH DO
DEVELOP SOME SHORT LIVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AS
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND JUST DON/T KNOW IF THERE IS ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOPE THE MODELS START COMING TO MORE
OF A CONSENSUS TO DETERMINE IF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT
IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
WILL STAY THE SAME...IT WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE
ISN/T A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS ON
THIS OCCURRING...AND IF IT DOES...THE PATH OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCH UP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
COOLING MOST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SO FOR SUNDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
WITH THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A FOCUS ACROSS WYOMING
AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...FOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PUTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS HOWEVER. RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST OF KVTN...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 30/00Z. FARTHER SOUTH...A
MORE DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF
KLBF...BUT THE CHANCE IS THERE PRIMARILY FROM 06/08Z THROUGH 06/12Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...DS/MASEK









000
FXUS63 KLBF 291157 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
657 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS ALONG A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO ORD. WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
MONTANA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE SEEN ROUNDING THE
WESTERLY RIDGE IN WATER VAPOR. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE
COOL AIR TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED. TRAJECTORY OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WOULD
CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN
REMAIN FAIRLY ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS SEEMED SLIGHTLY
OVER DONE WITH QPF AND PRECIPITATION WHILE NAM HAS HAD A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT FOR THE LAST
TWO DAYS. HAVE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IN CWA. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CARRIED
SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING RETURNS
AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF THIS FLOW STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE RIDGE INTO COLORADO AND FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COULD
COME A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGHTS CONTINUE THAT THE
MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE PATHS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED THE SOUTHERLY TREND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIPITATION LOCALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PLAY A BIG PART IN HOW WARM THOSE AREAS GET. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SO ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE COOLER HIGHS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 700MB THAT
GETS PULLED ACROSS THE AREA BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
LOOKING TO BE QUITE STEEP AND ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL LIFT...THERE
IS SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AS THE NAM HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON
THIS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE HESITANT WITH ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM
AND ARW ARE JUST STARTING TO RUN OUT INTO THIS PERIOD AND BOTH DO
DEVELOP SOME SHORT LIVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AS
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND JUST DON/T KNOW IF THERE IS ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOPE THE MODELS START COMING TO MORE
OF A CONSENSUS TO DETERMINE IF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT
IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
WILL STAY THE SAME...IT WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE
ISN/T A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS ON
THIS OCCURRING...AND IF IT DOES...THE PATH OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCH UP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
COOLING MOST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SO FOR SUNDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
WITH THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A FOCUS ACROSS WYOMING
AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...FOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PUTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE FROM KTIF TO KBBW AND WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH. VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY.
THERE IS SOME VALLEY FOG WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN
RISES. VISIBILITIES AROUND 5SM BR CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 291157 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
657 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS ALONG A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO ORD. WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
MONTANA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE SEEN ROUNDING THE
WESTERLY RIDGE IN WATER VAPOR. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE
COOL AIR TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED. TRAJECTORY OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WOULD
CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN
REMAIN FAIRLY ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS SEEMED SLIGHTLY
OVER DONE WITH QPF AND PRECIPITATION WHILE NAM HAS HAD A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT FOR THE LAST
TWO DAYS. HAVE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IN CWA. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CARRIED
SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING RETURNS
AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF THIS FLOW STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE RIDGE INTO COLORADO AND FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COULD
COME A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGHTS CONTINUE THAT THE
MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE PATHS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED THE SOUTHERLY TREND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIPITATION LOCALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PLAY A BIG PART IN HOW WARM THOSE AREAS GET. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SO ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE COOLER HIGHS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 700MB THAT
GETS PULLED ACROSS THE AREA BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
LOOKING TO BE QUITE STEEP AND ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL LIFT...THERE
IS SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AS THE NAM HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON
THIS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE HESITANT WITH ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM
AND ARW ARE JUST STARTING TO RUN OUT INTO THIS PERIOD AND BOTH DO
DEVELOP SOME SHORT LIVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AS
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND JUST DON/T KNOW IF THERE IS ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOPE THE MODELS START COMING TO MORE
OF A CONSENSUS TO DETERMINE IF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT
IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
WILL STAY THE SAME...IT WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE
ISN/T A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS ON
THIS OCCURRING...AND IF IT DOES...THE PATH OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCH UP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
COOLING MOST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SO FOR SUNDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
WITH THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A FOCUS ACROSS WYOMING
AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...FOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PUTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE FROM KTIF TO KBBW AND WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH. VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY.
THERE IS SOME VALLEY FOG WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN
RISES. VISIBILITIES AROUND 5SM BR CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290830
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS ALONG A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO ORD. WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
MONTANA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE SEEN ROUNDING THE
WESTERLY RIDGE IN WATER VAPOR. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE
COOL AIR TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED. TRAJECTORY OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WOULD
CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN
REMAIN FAIRLY ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS SEEMED SLIGHTLY
OVER DONE WITH QPF AND PRECIPITATION WHILE NAM HAS HAD A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT FOR THE LAST
TWO DAYS. HAVE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IN CWA. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CARRIED
SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING RETURNS
AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF THIS FLOW STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE RIDGE INTO COLORADO AND FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COULD
COME A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGHTS CONTINUE THAT THE
MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE PATHS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED THE SOUTHERLY TREND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIPITATION LOCALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PLAY A BIG PART IN HOW WARM THOSE AREAS GET. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SO ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE COOLER HIGHS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 700MB THAT
GETS PULLED ACROSS THE AREA BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
LOOKING TO BE QUITE STEEP AND ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL LIFT...THERE
IS SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AS THE NAM HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON
THIS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE HESITANT WITH ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM
AND ARW ARE JUST STARTING TO RUN OUT INTO THIS PERIOD AND BOTH DO
DEVELOP SOME SHORT LIVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AS
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND JUST DON/T KNOW IF THERE IS ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOPE THE MODELS START COMING TO MORE
OF A CONSENSUS TO DETERMINE IF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT
IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
WILL STAY THE SAME...IT WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE
ISN/T A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS ON
THIS OCCURRING...AND IF IT DOES...THE PATH OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCH UP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
COOLING MOST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SO FOR SUNDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
WITH THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A FOCUS ACROSS WYOMING
AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...FOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PUTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEOPARDY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC










000
FXUS63 KLBF 290830
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS ALONG A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO ORD. WILL CARRY THIS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLIER THAN USUAL TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
MONTANA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE SEEN ROUNDING THE
WESTERLY RIDGE IN WATER VAPOR. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN IN THE
COOL AIR TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED. TRAJECTORY OF ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WOULD
CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN
REMAIN FAIRLY ANCHORED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS SEEMED SLIGHTLY
OVER DONE WITH QPF AND PRECIPITATION WHILE NAM HAS HAD A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT FOR THE LAST
TWO DAYS. HAVE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST IN CWA. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER THIS MORNING BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CARRIED
SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING RETURNS
AS THE TEMPERATURES COOL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SIGNALS OF THIS FLOW STARTING TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT OVER THE RIDGE INTO COLORADO AND FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD BE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE COULD
COME A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGHTS CONTINUE THAT THE
MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE PATHS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED THE SOUTHERLY TREND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR PRECIPITATION LOCALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PLAY A BIG PART IN HOW WARM THOSE AREAS GET. THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SO ONLY THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE COOLER HIGHS...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.

THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 700MB THAT
GETS PULLED ACROSS THE AREA BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
LOOKING TO BE QUITE STEEP AND ASIDE FROM THE DIURNAL LIFT...THERE
IS SOME DECENT OMEGA IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AS THE NAM HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON
THIS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE HESITANT WITH ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NMM
AND ARW ARE JUST STARTING TO RUN OUT INTO THIS PERIOD AND BOTH DO
DEVELOP SOME SHORT LIVED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HOLD OFF AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AS
MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND JUST DON/T KNOW IF THERE IS ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. WILL HOPE THE MODELS START COMING TO MORE
OF A CONSENSUS TO DETERMINE IF RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED OR NOT
IN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL PATTERN
WILL STAY THE SAME...IT WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO PASS
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA. AGAIN...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS THERE
ISN/T A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE MODELS ON
THIS OCCURRING...AND IF IT DOES...THE PATH OF THE BETTER MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCH UP BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE PLAINS ALOFT. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT
COOLING MOST NIGHTS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS...WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISING UP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SO FOR SUNDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
WITH THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL HAVE A FOCUS ACROSS WYOMING
AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...FOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE FORECAST WHICH PUTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEOPARDY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC









000
FXUS63 KLBF 290712 AAC
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
212 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND ADD THUNDER.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEPARODY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290712 AAC
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
212 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXPAND AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND ADD THUNDER.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEPARODY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290417 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1117 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEPARODY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290417 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1117 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF
CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN
KS...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA- KTIF-KBBW...FROM 09Z-15Z. STILL
EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA AND THIS FCST IS IN JEPARODY AS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KAIA-KOGA-KIML TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER ERN COLO...ERN WY AND WRN KS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282333
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DEVELOPS A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN NEB...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA-
KTIF-KBBW. STILL EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED NEAR KTIF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282333
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DEVELOPS A BKN-0VC040-070 DECK OF CLOUDS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN NEB...WHICH LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS. LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME...FROM ROUGHLY KAIA-
KTIF-KBBW. STILL EXPECT VFR IN THE RAIN AREA...BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED NEAR KTIF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281921
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
221 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281921
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
221 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AS A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ATOP THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEEP TROUGH REMAINS FIXED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WITH ORIGINS FROM CANADA HAS SETTLED OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST...PROVIDING FOR LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS ANOTHER DAY OF SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.  THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A PRODUCT OF
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE /WHICH IS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT/
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...A STEADY TAP
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE DIRECTED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BIT OF THE
MOISTURE THEN BEING ALLOWED EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES INDICATE THE PERIODIC
INFLUENCE OF THIS MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AND AT
TIMES SUGGEST QPF.  THE FIRST CHANCE ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND/OR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHEN MODEST UPGLIDE TARGETS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODESTLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.  DESPITE THE PERIODIC INFLUENCE OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE THOUGH...THE OVERALL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
PROFILE IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE QPF...THUS
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED WORDING FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT MAINLY SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN IF REALIZED.  THE BETTER
SHOT OF QPF WILL BE FOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE IN ADVANCE OF A
SOLID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STILL THOUGH THE MODELS ARE FAVORING SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE AND
LIFT...SO STORMS/SHOWERS WITHIN THE CWA MAY BE SCATTERED/CHANCE AT
BEST.  IF A STORM WERE TO FIRE...HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1.40" WEST OF KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACH 8-9K FEET BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.  STORM MOTIONS OF 15-20KTS
HOWEVER WOULD PRECLUDE ANY REAL FLOOD THREAT...WITH TOTAL QPF OF A
HALF INCH OR LESS ANTICIPATED UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF CELLS

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE PROVIDING A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. WITH
ONLY MODERATE CONVECTIVE ENERGY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED AS ANOTHER
CANADIAN FRONT COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281724
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...DS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281724
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 29/06Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PICK UP TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 12
KTS...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281502
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 281502
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

JUST A COUPLE MINOR REVISIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST...ACCOUNTED FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NORTHERN
SANDHILLS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. ALSO PUSHED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PANHANDLE AFTER 29/00Z WITH THE LATEST NAM
RUN AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHER VARIABLES
REMAIN ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS/DS
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281159 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281159 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KVTN
AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 280821
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER












000
FXUS63 KLBF 280821
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE AGAIN INTERACTING WITH IT EARLY
THIS MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY AS THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO
CONTINUES TO SPREAD CLOUD SHIELD TO THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WITH SOME UPPER 70S OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL
PROVIDE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS EVENING AS WELL AS SOME
RETURNING MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND KEITH...PERKINS AND CHASE
COUNTIES AND FOCUS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
WYOMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRY TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. NO
STRONG WAVES MOVING THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. LOWS TONIGHT 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN TERMS OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING ANCHORED FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION WITH SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE
TROUGH...AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE. THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL AREA IN
PLACEMENT FOR GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LEVELS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THESE AREAS INDICATED AT 700MB BY THE NAM AND THE
GFS AND WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WITH THE FRONT AT 850MB-700MB ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTY THROUGH KHGI. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPARK THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY.
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING SO WILL STICK TO THE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY SEVERAL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PASSING OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO THESE SYSTEMS AS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING 60 TO 65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO HAVE STARTED SHIFTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. IS CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE GEM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT BRINGS SOME
PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS HIGHWAY 83. AT THIS TIME...WITH THIS
BEING THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS OCCURRING WILL KEEP WITH THE
CONSENSUS SOLUTION HAVING THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BACKTRACKING A BIT...THE NAM IS DOING SOMETHING
SIMILAR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SHORTWAVE DOWN THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF THIS WOULD OCCUR...COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS IS THE ONLY
MODEL PRODUCING THIS SHORTWAVE THIS FAR WEST SO AT THIS POINT WILL
IGNORE IT BUT WILL KEEP IT IN MIND IN COMING FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MAIN AIRMASS BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SO LOOKING AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BUILDING
EAST SLIGHTLY SO LOOKING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER













000
FXUS63 KLBF 280606 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 280606 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN080 AFTER 12Z. &&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 272342
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN070 AFTER 12Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 272342
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCT-BKN070 AFTER 12Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 271930
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
229 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH
PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN
EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON
MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH BC NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND
UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR
FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH
BY THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING THE HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.
WITH THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS
OR SO 6KM BULK SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.  CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF
STORMS FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS











000
FXUS63 KLBF 271929
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
229 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE
SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A
BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BC NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND UPPER 50S FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH BY
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC
DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.  WITH THAT BEING
SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS OR SO 6KM BULK
SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF STORMS
FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 271929
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
229 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE HIGH PLAINS SITS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE OUT WEST WILL AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST THEN EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  AT THE
SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
DAKOTAS...PROVIDING FOR A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN A
BLENDED PRODUCT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BC NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.  THIS BLEND YIELDS LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S FOR OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...AND UPPER 50S FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE CANADIAN HIGH...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT ABOUT
5 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A FEW UPPER 70S WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST AND WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTH BY
THE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THEN EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF NOTICEABLE SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
HIGH PLAINS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHIC
DRIVEN AND FOCUSED WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA.  WITH THAT BEING
SAID...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 40 KTS OR SO 6KM BULK
SHEAR...A STRONG STORM OR TWO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IF STORMS
FORM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BEFORE 00Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN...
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TAPPING THAT MOISTURE SOURCE AND BRINGING IT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY
FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. WITH SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BELOW 1000J/KG...THE UPDRAFT IS LIKELY TO BE
OVERCOME BY THE HORIZONTAL SHEAR MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN A
STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY UNTIL A FRONT
COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 271745
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 271745
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW SPRINKLES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD BASES REMAIN ABOVE 9K FEET. OTHERWISE
NORTHERLY WIND TO WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 271141 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A STORM TO THE SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MOVES TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 271141 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A STORM TO THE SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MOVES TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO 20MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 270816
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
316 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES FROM KCYS TO SOUTH OF KDDC TO KMCI. STORMS
FIRING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING AS SEEN
IN IR. SURFACE HIGH FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
COOL AIR ADVECTION ALL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
KEEPING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL SEND A TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND REORIENT THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH ENERGY ROUNDING THIS RIDGE STAYING WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES TRANSLATE TO
AROUND 80 NORTH TO AROUND 90 SOUTH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MIGHT NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION OF SEEING A HIGH 70 NORTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTHWEST
WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH AND DRY. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND
WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PLAGUED BY A STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WEST TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION RETREATING
BACK WEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA MIDWEEK. THIS AMPLIFIED
FLOW WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...THEN UP ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS PLACED JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY CENTERED
OVER THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MOST DAYS...BUT DO EXPECT LIGHT RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE LOOKING TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THAT COOLER AIR
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING 5-10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...EXPECTING
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA /NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST/ THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...IT WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST SO WHILE IT MAY BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD NOT HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT EASTWARD SO THE
WARMER AIR MASS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST. ALSO...WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST IT
APPEARS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN AN AREA VOID OF HAVING ANY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH. TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES WILL PROGRESS OVER THE RIDGE...BUT THESE SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
THEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH...THE MAIN TRACK WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THAT WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR FROM BEING PULLED TOO FAR
WEST AND STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO...MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVES
WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT A WEAK IMPULSE OF ENERGY COULD TRACK AS FAR WEST AS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE 27.00Z MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT
OCCURRING WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THESE PERIODS.

ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LAST
FEW FORECAST RUNS TO DEVELOP A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS DOWN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN
THIS AREA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA LOOKS TO SIT UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO INCREASE THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACKS
THROUGH THE DAY AND FOCUSES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THEN TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO VEER
BACK TO THE EAST AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD GET SOME
ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL CONTINUE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HRS. FEW-SCT250 OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ALSO MAY BE
FEW-SCT100 AFTER 15Z. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY MAINLY BELOW
12KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 34014G22KT FROM 17Z-24Z AT KVTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...ROBERG










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