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000
FXUS63 KLBF 010023 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
723 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE MODELS OF A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WINTER
PATTERN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
LATER THIS WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ALASKA AND DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA AND THE U.S. THIS SIGNALS COOLER WEATHER
TO WRN AND NCNTL NEB AND PERHAPS THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON IN
SOME AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP WIND ADVISORY. MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST WITH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS
SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS NOW LOCATED IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES...THIS COMBINED
WITH DRIER AIR THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. 0 TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES
WILL BE QUITE STEEP AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD YIELD A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL RESIDE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO
HAVE LEFT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE H7 TROF IS NEARLY UPRIGHT
AND ALMOST CLOSED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SRN NEB. THE NAM 750MB CAPE IS
LESS THAN 500 J/KG BUT GREATER THAN 0 SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTMS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF PRODUCES 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
IN THIS AREA AND POPS ARE SET AT THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS
FORECAST...A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THE RISK OF A
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL
CONTINUE TO HAUNT THE FORECAST.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INVADES THE FCST AREA THURSDAY WITH 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY. A SECOND STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER WELL BELOW
FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AND DESPITE STRONG
WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN THE NAM MODEL...MET AND MAV GUIDANCE THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WOULD FALL TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY WITH COOL AIR
CONTINUING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMER AIR INVADES THE FCST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING AS H850MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C. STILL...THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS LOW TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PRODUCE FROST IN SOME AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY. THE
FORECAST IS DRY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEWLY FORMED HUDSON
BAY LOW WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER BY SHUNTING THE COLDER AIR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT...VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 010023 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
723 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE MODELS OF A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WINTER
PATTERN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
LATER THIS WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ALASKA AND DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA AND THE U.S. THIS SIGNALS COOLER WEATHER
TO WRN AND NCNTL NEB AND PERHAPS THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON IN
SOME AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP WIND ADVISORY. MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST WITH WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS
SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS NOW LOCATED IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES...THIS COMBINED
WITH DRIER AIR THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. 0 TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES
WILL BE QUITE STEEP AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD YIELD A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL RESIDE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO
HAVE LEFT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE H7 TROF IS NEARLY UPRIGHT
AND ALMOST CLOSED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SRN NEB. THE NAM 750MB CAPE IS
LESS THAN 500 J/KG BUT GREATER THAN 0 SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTMS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF PRODUCES 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
IN THIS AREA AND POPS ARE SET AT THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS
FORECAST...A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THE RISK OF A
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL
CONTINUE TO HAUNT THE FORECAST.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INVADES THE FCST AREA THURSDAY WITH 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY. A SECOND STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER WELL BELOW
FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AND DESPITE STRONG
WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN THE NAM MODEL...MET AND MAV GUIDANCE THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WOULD FALL TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY WITH COOL AIR
CONTINUING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMER AIR INVADES THE FCST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING AS H850MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C. STILL...THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS LOW TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PRODUCE FROST IN SOME AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY. THE
FORECAST IS DRY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEWLY FORMED HUDSON
BAY LOW WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER BY SHUNTING THE COLDER AIR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT...VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 302345 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE MODELS OF A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WINTER
PATTERN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
LATER THIS WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ALASKA AND DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA AND THE U.S. THIS SIGNALS COOLER WEATHER
TO WRN AND NCNTL NEB AND PERHAPS THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON IN
SOME AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS
SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS NOW LOCATED IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES...THIS COMBINED
WITH DRIER AIR THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. 0 TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES
WILL BE QUITE STEEP AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD YIELD A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL RESIDE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO
HAVE LEFT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE H7 TROF IS NEARLY UPRIGHT
AND ALMOST CLOSED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SRN NEB. THE NAM 750MB CAPE IS
LESS THAN 500 J/KG BUT GREATER THAN 0 SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTMS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF PRODUCES 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
IN THIS AREA AND POPS ARE SET AT THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS
FORECAST...A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THE RISK OF A
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL
CONTINUE TO HAUNT THE FORECAST.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INVADES THE FCST AREA THURSDAY WITH 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY. A SECOND STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER WELL BELOW
FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AND DESPITE STRONG
WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN THE NAM MODEL...MET AND MAV GUIDANCE THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WOULD FALL TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY WITH COOL AIR
CONTINUING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMER AIR INVADES THE FCST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING AS H850MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C. STILL...THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS LOW TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PRODUCE FROST IN SOME AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY. THE
FORECAST IS DRY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEWLY FORMED HUDSON
BAY LOW WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER BY SHUNTING THE COLDER AIR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRONG WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OVER NIGHT...VISUAL FLIGHT RULES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 302028
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE MODELS OF A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WINTER
PATTERN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
LATER THIS WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ALASKA AND DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA AND THE U.S. THIS SIGNALS COOLER WEATHER
TO WRN AND NCNTL NEB AND PERHAPS THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON IN
SOME AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS
SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS NOW LOCATED IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES...THIS COMBINED
WITH DRIER AIR THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. 0 TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES
WILL BE QUITE STEEP AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD YIELD A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL RESIDE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO
HAVE LEFT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE H7 TROF IS NEARLY UPRIGHT
AND ALMOST CLOSED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SRN NEB. THE NAM 750MB CAPE IS
LESS THAN 500 J/KG BUT GREATER THAN 0 SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTMS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF PRODUCES 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
IN THIS AREA AND POPS ARE SET AT THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS
FORECAST...A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THE RISK OF A
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL
CONTINUE TO HAUNT THE FORECAST.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INVADES THE FCST AREA THURSDAY WITH 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY. A SECOND STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER WELL BELOW
FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AND DESPITE STRONG
WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN THE NAM MODEL...MET AND MAV GUIDANCE THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WOULD FALL TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY WITH COOL AIR
CONTINUING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMER AIR INVADES THE FCST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING AS H850MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C. STILL...THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS LOW TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PRODUCE FROST IN SOME AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY. THE
FORECAST IS DRY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEWLY FORMED HUDSON
BAY LOW WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER BY SHUNTING THE COLDER AIR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH. THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...GOMEZ







000
FXUS63 KLBF 302028
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE MODELS OF A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WINTER
PATTERN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
LATER THIS WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH ALASKA AND DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS OF CANADA AND THE U.S. THIS SIGNALS COOLER WEATHER
TO WRN AND NCNTL NEB AND PERHAPS THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON IN
SOME AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS
SITUATED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IS NOW LOCATED IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES...THIS COMBINED
WITH DRIER AIR THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE
TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER. 0 TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES
WILL BE QUITE STEEP AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD YIELD A
FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL RESIDE.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO
HAVE LEFT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN APPEARS LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE H7 TROF IS NEARLY UPRIGHT
AND ALMOST CLOSED AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SRN NEB. THE NAM 750MB CAPE IS
LESS THAN 500 J/KG BUT GREATER THAN 0 SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTMS
DURING THE EVENING. THIS INSTABILITY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL BLENDED QPF PRODUCES 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN
IN THIS AREA AND POPS ARE SET AT THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS
FORECAST...A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM THE RISK OF A
LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL
CONTINUE TO HAUNT THE FORECAST.

PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE INVADES THE FCST AREA THURSDAY WITH 850-700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY. A SECOND STRONGER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES IN THIS LAYER WELL BELOW
FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR IS VERY DRY AND DESPITE STRONG
WINDS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE IS REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN THE NAM MODEL...MET AND MAV GUIDANCE THAT LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WOULD FALL TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WITH PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY WITH COOL AIR
CONTINUING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMER AIR INVADES THE FCST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. THIS
WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE FREEZE CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING AS H850MB
TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 10C. STILL...THE BEST GUESS ON LOWS IS LOW TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PRODUCE FROST IN SOME AREAS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY. THE
FORECAST IS DRY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEWLY FORMED HUDSON
BAY LOW WILL MODULATE THE WEATHER BY SHUNTING THE COLDER AIR NORTH
AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH. THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...GOMEZ








000
FXUS63 KLBF 301739
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS ACROSS THE
REGION. CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL ALSO
DIMINISH AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTH. THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...GOMEZ









000
FXUS63 KLBF 301210
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
710 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 10000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...EXPECT GIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL TODAY...LOWERING TO 12000
FT AGL TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 301210
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
710 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 10000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...EXPECT GIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL TODAY...LOWERING TO 12000
FT AGL TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 301145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 10000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...EXPECT GIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL TODAY...LOWERING TO 12000
FT AGL TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 301145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO 25 KTS AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 10000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...EXPECT GIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL TODAY...LOWERING TO 12000
FT AGL TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300835
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 300835
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA WITH CLOSED
LOWS OVER THE ALEUTIANS...NORTHERN ALASKA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HUDSON BAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48...RIDGING WAS
PRESENT FROM EASTERN TX NORTH INTO SRN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WERE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL COLORADO AND
SWRN MONTANA. AS OF 3 AM CDT...WV IMAGERY HAS THE CENTRAL COLORADO
WAVE...NOW OVER SERN WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND BROKEN
BOW....TO NORTH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY. OTHER SHOWERS WERE LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTH NORTHWEST. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT
OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL TO 65 AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE THE THREAT FOR
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SWRN SD...THEN NORTH CENTRAL SD BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH...STRONG WESTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
PINE RIDGE AND VALENTINE ARE INDICATING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER APPG 45 TO 55 MPH THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING TO 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A WIND
ADVISORY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...EAST TO CHERRY AND KEYA PAHA
COUNTIES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE DECENT MIXING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL START THE ADVISORY AT 8 AM CDT
AND KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7 PM CDT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE A SECOND FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY. WRAP AROUND PCPN
WILL BE A THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHRAS AND TSRAS RE DEVELOP
UNDERNEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTH...WESTERLY WINDS WILL FORCE THE DRYLINE INTO
CENTRAL...THEN EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. ATTM
BASED ON THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLNS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT BEING CONFINED TO EASTERN BOYD...EASTERN HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES. ATTM...THE MAIN SEVERE MODE WILL BE WINDS AND
HAIL...AS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
GREATEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UNDER THE COLD
POOL IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
EAST. DECENT SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
DISTURBANCE...WHICH WILL LIFT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SRN
MANITOBA. DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION IS ON COOL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MID-WEEK...BUT THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING SPLIT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY.  THE PATTERN
WILL FAVOR THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.  WITH FORMIDABLE
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEL GENERATED QPF RAMP UP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL
GENERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR GREATER OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE HEAVIEST
QPF OCCURRING GENERALLY DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS.  A FAIR BIT OF COOLING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL...THUS A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS POSSIBLE.  BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE
FOR THUNDER THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND
POINTS SOUTH.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS WELL...FORCING AN
ADDITIONAL TROUGH AND STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE WEEK.   THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING...BUT BOTH SHOW SUB 0C H85 TEMPS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
LOWER TO MID 30S SFC LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING.  A SIDE NOTE...THE ECMX MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
26 AND 29 FAHRENHEIT AT NORTH PLATTE AND VALENTINE RESPECTIVELY
SATURDAY MORNING.  FROST WILL BE A CONCERN.

BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...RISING HEIGHTS AND WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  A WEAK FRONT MAY COOL HIGHS SUNDAY A
FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WITH THAT...HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL /IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S/ WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS WIDESPREAD KINEMATIC FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ004>006-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...POWER











000
FXUS63 KLBF 300547
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300547
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
MVFR CATEGORIES AND CEILINGS ALSO. MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG IN OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BUT CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 300317 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1017 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300317 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1017 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST UPDATE TO DROP TORNADO WATCH. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 292342 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292342 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MAIN ACTIVITY TO THE
WEST OF VALENTINE KVTN TO NORTH PLATTE KLBF LINE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES OVER NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUSTAINED AT 25KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 292035
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE LONG LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KVTN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA HAS LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292035
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A VERY INTENSE PV ANOMALY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...RIDGING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
A WARM FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KTIF AND KONL. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CLOUDY
SKIES...FOG AND RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES RISES MINIMAL WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE 50S AND 60S.
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SAW STRONG MIXING TO NEAR
750MB...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE BEING MIXED TO THE
SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S.

A SECOND PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WILL
LIFT THROUGH WRN NEB TONIGHT SETTING OFF A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BAY LATER THIS WEEK AND BECOME THE BASIS
OF A DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WARMER AIR ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS. A
PORTION OF THIS COLD AIR WITH AFFECT WRN AND NCNTL NEB THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BUT WARMER AIR RETURNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL HEAD NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DEEP LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WITH
THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...GOOD VORTICITY THROUGH THE LAYER AS WELL AS
IN THE LOW LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED
/LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA HAD 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35KTS...THE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE STORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY EASILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS LOCALLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL FROM STORMS...WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHWARD STORMS
SHOULD SPIN SO CAN/T DISCOUNT THE THREAT FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT.

COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER SO A FAIRLY FULL LINE OF
STORMS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH THEN IS EXPECTED TO SWING TO THE
NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH HOW THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
WILL PROGRESS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WHERE THE LINE OF STORMS
AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WILL APPROACH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL SO DO
BELIEVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
UNDER STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...EVEN WITH A BIT OF TRAINING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THROUGH THE DAY DON/T THINK FLOODING WILL
BE OF CONCERN AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED AND BE STACKED AND
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY CLOSER TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND INTO THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST AS AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW AS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. THE WIND
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT MORE. AT THIS TIME...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH 30KT SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO 45KTS...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

AREAS THAT END UP IN THE DRY SLOT WILL SEE WARMER AIR BEING PULLED
INTO THE SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD AGAIN
SEE A LARGE RANGE...FROM THE LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT
WILL RAIN MUCH OF THE DAY...TO THE UPPER 70S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SUNSHINE AND WARMER AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO SRN CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FCST AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FORMIDABLE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND RESULTANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN EDGES OF THE FCST AREA MAINLY AFFECTING
WY...COLO AND KS. IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AT H700MB AND THIS
IS VERY TYPICAL OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH ARE VERY EFFICIENT
AT DRIVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE FCST AREA WHICH LIMITS RAIN CHANCES.

H850MB TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY MORNING
BUT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOWN BY THE MODELS...NO FROST
IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST
TO UPPER 40S EAST. HIGHS NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
NORTHWEST AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 60S AND 70S ELSEWHERE.
60S ARE EXPECTED ALL AREAS THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHOT OF WARM AIR
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS HIGH IS TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR OFF THE ROCKIES. MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE LONG LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KVTN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA HAS LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
PRECIPITATION TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO DID SOME FINE TUNING ON
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY RAINFALL SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DELAYED THE ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

ALSO KEPT FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE THE FOG/STRATUS FROM LIFTING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH AM STARTING TO SEE SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS. THINK
THE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES SO DID DROP HIGHS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS TODAY.

STILL EVALUATING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME...NORTHEAST COLORADO LOOKS TO BE THE HOT-BED OF WHERE
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM BUT ANY DEVIANCE FROM CURRENT MODELS
COULD ADJUST THAT LOCATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AROUND 18Z...SO EXPECTING THINGS TO GET GOING EARLY IN
THE DAY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL
ENCOMPASS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA STILL UNCERTAIN IF STORMS CAN/WILL
BECOME SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE LONG LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KVTN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA HAS LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 291807
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
PRECIPITATION TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO DID SOME FINE TUNING ON
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY RAINFALL SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DELAYED THE ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

ALSO KEPT FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE THE FOG/STRATUS FROM LIFTING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH AM STARTING TO SEE SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS. THINK
THE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES SO DID DROP HIGHS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS TODAY.

STILL EVALUATING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME...NORTHEAST COLORADO LOOKS TO BE THE HOT-BED OF WHERE
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM BUT ANY DEVIANCE FROM CURRENT MODELS
COULD ADJUST THAT LOCATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AROUND 18Z...SO EXPECTING THINGS TO GET GOING EARLY IN
THE DAY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL
ENCOMPASS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA STILL UNCERTAIN IF STORMS CAN/WILL
BECOME SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE LONG LINE OF STORMS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SWING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOWER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED RAIN IN THE KVTN
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS AT TIMES. ALSO...FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA HAS LIFTED...BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK
AROUND FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 291531
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1031 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
PRECIPITATION TRENDS BY INCREASING CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALSO DID SOME FINE TUNING ON
PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY RAINFALL SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. DELAYED THE ONSET OF HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

ALSO KEPT FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOW TO MOVE NORTH AND
OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE THE FOG/STRATUS FROM LIFTING TOO QUICKLY THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH AM STARTING TO SEE SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS. THINK
THE FOG WILL LIFT...BUT STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES SO DID DROP HIGHS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS TODAY.

STILL EVALUATING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT
THIS TIME...NORTHEAST COLORADO LOOKS TO BE THE HOT-BED OF WHERE
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM BUT ANY DEVIANCE FROM CURRENT MODELS
COULD ADJUST THAT LOCATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CAP
BREAKING AROUND 18Z...SO EXPECTING THINGS TO GET GOING EARLY IN
THE DAY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL
ENCOMPASS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA STILL UNCERTAIN IF STORMS CAN/WILL
BECOME SEVERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOG AND STRATUS TO IMPACT KVTN THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE STORM
SYSTEM GAINING STRENGTH TO THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR
KVTN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
STILL THINKING BKN/OVC SKIES. PRECIP SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH FIRST SIGNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...GUSTING TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR
FILLING IN BEHIND AND BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP IN TOMORROW
MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK









000
FXUS63 KLBF 291204
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOG AND STRATUS TO IMPACT KVTN THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE STORM
SYSTEM GAINING STRENGTH TO THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR
KVTN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
STILL THINKING BKN/OVC SKIES. PRECIP SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH FIRST SIGNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...GUSTING TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR
FILLING IN BEHIND AND BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP IN TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KLBF 291204
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN AREA OF FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS THIS
MORNING WITH KVTN AND KANW REPORTING LOW VISBY. KANW ALSO
REPORTING DZ. MEANWHILE SHOWERS/THUNDER CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. FORECAST UPDATE SCALED POPS WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
AND ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL INTO NW
NEB...EAST OF THE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FOG AND STRATUS TO IMPACT KVTN THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE STORM
SYSTEM GAINING STRENGTH TO THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR
KVTN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
STILL THINKING BKN/OVC SKIES. PRECIP SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH FIRST SIGNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...GUSTING TO 25 KTS
TO 30 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR
FILLING IN BEHIND AND BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP IN TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290854
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH A SECONDARY LOW TAKING
SHAPE OVER SE IDAHO. MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LOW...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM
A LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWEST...CROSSING FROM NE NEB
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NE COLORADO.
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS SPREADING SLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COMPLEX FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE ROCKIES/REDEVELOPS OVER NE COLORADO THEN LIFTS
NORTHWARD.

THIS MORNING STRATUS WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESS...AND SHOULD
EVEN RETREAT TO THE NW LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE MID CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
ROTATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS MAY LIMIT THE HEATING ACROSS NW
NEB...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPERIENCE ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY...AND FORECAST HOLDS TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...WHICH IS BELOW
GUIDANCE. AHEAD OF THE STALLING COLD FRONT...WILL BE INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY /GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH/ FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHOWERS...NW NEB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON THE LOW OVER NE COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT TO
THE N. INSTABILITY INCREASE AS SFC WARMS TO AROUND 80...WITH MU
CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG. SHEARS IS DECENT AT 30 TO 40 KTS...AND CAP
WEAKENS. STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NE COLORADO/NW KANSAS THEN LIFT TO THE N INTO SW NEB.
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAINSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING AS THE SFC COOLS OFF. IMPRESSIVE PWATS AT 2SD OR GREATER
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS DO MOVE AT A
DECENT PACE...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME TRAINING. MODELS FOCUS HIGHEST
QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WHICH IS LOOKS GOOD AS THIS IS
CLOSEST TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL
LIKELY DRY SLOT MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO IMPACT THAT AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASING TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT ANTICIPATING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...WITH 500 METER
SPEEDS OF 22 TO 28 KTS SUPPORTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 25 MPH OR SO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A NORTHERN TRACK...WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. WILL NOT INCREASE OR DECREASE POPS
AT THIS POINT WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
POP FORECAST. ONE CERTAINTY IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD COOL BACK
INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONGER SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE 60S FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290536
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290536
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WERE
OVER THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED OVER THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS LOOKS TO
BUILD INTO KVTN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH VLIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF
VALENTINE UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290406 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN LATER TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED
VCSH FOR KVTN TAF SITE OVER NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE.
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 290406 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTED WEATHER TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
WITH MORE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN LATER TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED
VCSH FOR KVTN TAF SITE OVER NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE.
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 290003 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
703 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN LATER TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED
VCSH FOR KVTN TAF SITE OVER NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE.
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 290003 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
703 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AREA OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ALONG BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS SHOULD GO AWAY WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THEN BEGIN ANEW AS A WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AND THEN LATER TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE CONTINUED
VCSH FOR KVTN TAF SITE OVER NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE.
VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282023
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KVTN TERMINAL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR MID MORNING MONDAY. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TREND THE WIND FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MESO-
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT /AROUND 06Z/ BUT ARE CURRENTLY
KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CHANGED
SHOWERS TO VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST PULLS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
FOR THE TAF SITES SO NO THUNDER IS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282023
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A CLOSED LOW ROTATING OVER NEVADA. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SEEN IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING ACROSS
MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. BROAD RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN OVER IOWA. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA...THE WARM AIR ALOFT
HAS BEEN FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SEEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHICH
EXTENDED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...THROUGH EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WAS
OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF WYOMING
AS A COOLER AIRMASS PUSHED SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOCATIONS UNDER THE STRATUS SAW LITTLE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY AS MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
UPPER 50S. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. IN ADDITION...GOOD MIXING AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF
A CUMULUS FIELD OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SWIRLY ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS AFTN
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.
A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EAST. COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SYSTEM REMAINS OFF TO THE
WEST...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE OF MID LEVEL
ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN SYSTEM AND MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM THIS ENERGY...ALONG
WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE
ISN/T HIGH YET THAT ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP...BUT DIDN/T WANT TO
LEAVE A DRY FORECAST AS THE SET-UP LOOKS FAVORABLE SO ADDED IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
STARTS TO MIGRATE EAST OVERNIGHT AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT
INCREASING AS MORE ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE UPPER
JET PUSHES INTO AREAS TO THE WEST EXPECT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE BY 12Z OVER THE PANHANDLE.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO OPEN UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND START TO TAKE ON
A NEGATIVE TILT AND CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
00Z TUESDAY THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ONGOING...PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA /OR THE
WESTERN PORTIONS ANYWAY/ INTO THE RIGHT EXIT REGION AND IN THE
FAVORED AREA FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT. ANTICIPATING STORMS TO DEVELOP
AROUND EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AS EVERYTHING
BEGINS TO COME TOGETHER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
WITH MU CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MIXING
TO NEAR 750MB...GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE AREA OF
30-35 KTS AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL SEE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW 80S.
THE WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER...IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
TRENDING TOWARD THE DEEP GFS SOLN AND HAVE CONVERGED ON THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WRN NEB MONDAY EVENING AND SPLIT OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST THROUGH NCNTL NEB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUS A FULL
MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF AND POPS WHICH PRODUCES AROUND AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE WEST AND AS LITTLE AS 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...NEAR THE
TRACK OF THE H7 LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY. WE ARE
MISSING A TRIPLE PT AND A HOT PROD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. LINEAR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS AND HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM AND NOW THE ARF/NMM SOLNS ACROSS WRN NEB. THE MODELS SUGGEST
STRONG OR SEVERE WEATHER COULD LAST UNTIL 03Z-06Z MONDAY NIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN NEB TUESDAY AFTN AS
THE PV ANOMALY FORCES 45 TO 55 KT H700MB WINDS DOWNWARD TOWARD THE
SURFACE. THE GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH 40+ MPH SFC WINDS BUT THE
OTHER MODELS WERE CLOSER TO 30 MPH AND KEPT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND
THE TRACK OF THE H700MB LOW TUESDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS NRN
NEB. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SIMILAR BOTH DAYS WITH 60S IN THE
NORTHWEST AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECM. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRIDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A LIGHT FREEZE
AND THE MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SRN CANADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DRAWING WARM AIR OFF THE ROCKIES INTO THE FCST AREA. HIGHS IN THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KVTN TERMINAL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR MID MORNING MONDAY. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TREND THE WIND FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MESO-
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT /AROUND 06Z/ BUT ARE CURRENTLY
KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CHANGED
SHOWERS TO VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST PULLS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
FOR THE TAF SITES SO NO THUNDER IS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281729
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WEST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. A CUT-OFF
CLOSED LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS NE NEB/SE S DAKOTA/SW MIN/NW IA. LOW
LEVEL JET HAS KICK UP WITH THE NOSE VEERING INTO NE NEB. THE
COMBINATION OF THE JET AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CREATING ENOUGH LIFT
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...SO FAR ISOLATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA WITH A FEW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WHILE SOME CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N CENTRAL...NEAR
THE SHOWERS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AS OF 3 PM CDT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TODAY/S FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE /SHERIDAN COUNTY/ DUE
TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND OVER EASTERN HOLT COUNTY AS A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM KICR TO KVTN TO KIBM AT 17Z.
NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER...HOWEVER A
THICK STRATUS DECK HAS TAKEN RESIDENCE IN AREAS NORTH OF THE
FRONT...FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING...THROUGH THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND UP ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORT TERM MODELS
ARE KEEPING THIS STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY SO CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY. LATEST READINGS
WERE STILL IN THE MID 50S SO HIGHS MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO REACH NEW
FORECAST HIGHS OF MID 60S. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDS WILL STILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S...WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD
STILL REACH INTO THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING EYES WILL FOCUS ON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE CWA...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUING THE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE
EAST. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SPRINKLES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST. MODELS ARE TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
DRIFTING IT TO THE NE...AND MORNING MIXING WILL DIMINISH THE
NOCTURNAL JET SO EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT LIVED IN THE CWA.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASE LL
MOISTURE. A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY MORNING FOG CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER THE SHORT DURATION AND LOCALIZED NATURE WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.

THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD SUN...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
GET ABOVE 80. THE ONLY COOL SPOT WILL BE FAR NW ZONES...MAINLY NRN
SHERIDAN COUNTY...WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WESTERN STORM
SYSTEM....WILL HELP TO HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

TONIGHT THE SW SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INITIAL
WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAYBE
SOME THUNDER...TO WESTERN NEB. DRY AIR WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME
INITIALLY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG PV ANOMALY/UPPER LEVEL JUST STREAK DIGGING TROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SFC LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT..SO A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND BROAD SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
IN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ALL MODEL SOLNS NOW SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED H5 LOW AS A STRONG PV
MAX EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST AND DEEPEST MODEL...HOWEVER THE TREND OF THE
OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL CHOICE...QUICK SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING IN THE
DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60+ KT H5 JET STREAK. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. NOT
TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT.
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BOTH LACKING IN THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
WEST OF HWY 61 WHERE HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING. TRENDED DOWN POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BUT CONTINUE MENTION THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD POOL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS WELL. 1.5 PVU SFC DROPS BELOW 400MB ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA IN CONCERT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM THE MID LEVELS.
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AT CDR AND VTN ADVERTISES SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DESPITE A FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WINDY CONDITIONS..SO THE GRIDS WERE TRENDED
TOWARD A EC/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND FOR NOW. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...SENDING
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS AND SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE CWA. LATEST EC
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE
MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAS CALLED
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY...THEN WARMING
BACK UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ALLBLENDS CURRENTLY
GIVES LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH
BKN TO OVC SKIES LIKELY BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KVTN TERMINAL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY UNTIL NEAR MID MORNING MONDAY. HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO TREND THE WIND FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MESO-
SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT /AROUND 06Z/ BUT ARE CURRENTLY
KEEPING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CHANGED
SHOWERS TO VCSH RATHER THAN PREVAILING RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST PULLS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
FOR THE TAF SITES SO NO THUNDER IS INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 281155
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
655 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WEST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. A CUT-OFF
CLOSED LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS NE NEB/SE S DAKOTA/SW MIN/NW IA. LOW
LEVEL JET HAS KICK UP WITH THE NOSE VEERING INTO NE NEB. THE
COMBINATION OF THE JET AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CREATING ENOUGH LIFT
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...SO FAR ISOLATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA WITH A FEW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WHILE SOME CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N CENTRAL...NEAR
THE SHOWERS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AS OF 3 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING EYES WILL FOCUS ON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE CWA...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUING THE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE
EAST. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SPRINKLES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST. MODELS ARE TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
DRIFTING IT TO THE NE...AND MORNING MIXING WILL DIMINISH THE
NOCTURNAL JET SO EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT LIVED IN THE CWA.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASE LL
MOISTURE. A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY MORNING FOG CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER THE SHORT DURATION AND LOCALIZED NATURE WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.

THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD SUN...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
GET ABOVE 80. THE ONLY COOL SPOT WILL BE FAR NW ZONES...MAINLY NRN
SHERIDAN COUNTY...WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WESTERN STORM
SYSTEM....WILL HELP TO HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

TONIGHT THE SW SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INITIAL
WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAYBE
SOME THUNDER...TO WESTERN NEB. DRY AIR WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME
INITIALLY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG PV ANOMALY/UPPER LEVEL JUST STREAK DIGGING TROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SFC LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT..SO A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND BROAD SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
IN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ALL MODEL SOLNS NOW SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED H5 LOW AS A STRONG PV
MAX EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST AND DEEPEST MODEL...HOWEVER THE TREND OF THE
OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL CHOICE...QUICK SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING IN THE
DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60+ KT H5 JET STREAK. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. NOT
TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT.
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BOTH LACKING IN THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
WEST OF HWY 61 WHERE HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING. TRENDED DOWN POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BUT CONTINUE MENTION THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD POOL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS WELL. 1.5 PVU SFC DROPS BELOW 400MB ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA IN CONCERT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM THE MID LEVELS.
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AT CDR AND VTN ADVERTISES SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DESPITE A FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WINDY CONDITIONS..SO THE GRIDS WERE TRENDED
TOWARD A EC/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND FOR NOW. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...SENDING
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS AND SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE CWA. LATEST EC
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE
MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAS CALLED
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY...THEN WARMING
BACK UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ALLBLENDS CURRENTLY
GIVES LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DRIFTING TOWARDS SRN MINNESOTA HAS SPARKED
A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF KONL...AND EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO
THE EAST. MEANWHILE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED BL MOISTURE
TO THE POINT OF DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOW LYING AND RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE WITH A TEMPO OF 4SM BR FOR KLBF.

AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 281155
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
655 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WEST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. A CUT-OFF
CLOSED LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS NE NEB/SE S DAKOTA/SW MIN/NW IA. LOW
LEVEL JET HAS KICK UP WITH THE NOSE VEERING INTO NE NEB. THE
COMBINATION OF THE JET AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CREATING ENOUGH LIFT
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...SO FAR ISOLATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA WITH A FEW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WHILE SOME CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N CENTRAL...NEAR
THE SHOWERS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AS OF 3 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING EYES WILL FOCUS ON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE CWA...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUING THE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE
EAST. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SPRINKLES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST. MODELS ARE TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
DRIFTING IT TO THE NE...AND MORNING MIXING WILL DIMINISH THE
NOCTURNAL JET SO EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT LIVED IN THE CWA.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASE LL
MOISTURE. A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY MORNING FOG CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER THE SHORT DURATION AND LOCALIZED NATURE WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.

THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD SUN...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
GET ABOVE 80. THE ONLY COOL SPOT WILL BE FAR NW ZONES...MAINLY NRN
SHERIDAN COUNTY...WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WESTERN STORM
SYSTEM....WILL HELP TO HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

TONIGHT THE SW SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INITIAL
WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAYBE
SOME THUNDER...TO WESTERN NEB. DRY AIR WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME
INITIALLY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG PV ANOMALY/UPPER LEVEL JUST STREAK DIGGING TROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SFC LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT..SO A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND BROAD SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
IN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ALL MODEL SOLNS NOW SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED H5 LOW AS A STRONG PV
MAX EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST AND DEEPEST MODEL...HOWEVER THE TREND OF THE
OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL CHOICE...QUICK SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING IN THE
DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60+ KT H5 JET STREAK. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. NOT
TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT.
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BOTH LACKING IN THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
WEST OF HWY 61 WHERE HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING. TRENDED DOWN POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BUT CONTINUE MENTION THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD POOL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS WELL. 1.5 PVU SFC DROPS BELOW 400MB ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA IN CONCERT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM THE MID LEVELS.
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AT CDR AND VTN ADVERTISES SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DESPITE A FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WINDY CONDITIONS..SO THE GRIDS WERE TRENDED
TOWARD A EC/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND FOR NOW. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...SENDING
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS AND SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE CWA. LATEST EC
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE
MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAS CALLED
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY...THEN WARMING
BACK UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ALLBLENDS CURRENTLY
GIVES LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DRIFTING TOWARDS SRN MINNESOTA HAS SPARKED
A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF KONL...AND EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO
THE EAST. MEANWHILE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED BL MOISTURE
TO THE POINT OF DEVELOPING SOME PATCHY FOG BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOW LYING AND RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST IS
CONSERVATIVE WITH A TEMPO OF 4SM BR FOR KLBF.

AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MASEK






000
FXUS63 KLBF 280834
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WEST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. A CUT-OFF
CLOSED LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS NE NEB/SE S DAKOTA/SW MIN/NW IA. LOW
LEVEL JET HAS KICK UP WITH THE NOSE VEERING INTO NE NEB. THE
COMBINATION OF THE JET AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CREATING ENOUGH LIFT
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...SO FAR ISOLATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA WITH A FEW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WHILE SOME CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N CENTRAL...NEAR
THE SHOWERS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AS OF 3 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING EYES WILL FOCUS ON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE CWA...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUING THE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE
EAST. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SPRINKLES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST. MODELS ARE TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
DRIFTING IT TO THE NE...AND MORNING MIXING WILL DIMINISH THE
NOCTURNAL JET SO EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT LIVED IN THE CWA.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASE LL
MOISTURE. A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY MORNING FOG CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER THE SHORT DURATION AND LOCALIZED NATURE WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.

THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD SUN...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
GET ABOVE 80. THE ONLY COOL SPOT WILL BE FAR NW ZONES...MAINLY NRN
SHERIDAN COUNTY...WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WESTERN STORM
SYSTEM....WILL HELP TO HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

TONIGHT THE SW SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INITIAL
WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAYBE
SOME THUNDER...TO WESTERN NEB. DRY AIR WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME
INITIALLY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG PV ANOMALY/UPPER LEVEL JUST STREAK DIGGING TROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SFC LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT..SO A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND BROAD SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
IN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ALL MODEL SOLNS NOW SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED H5 LOW AS A STRONG PV
MAX EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST AND DEEPEST MODEL...HOWEVER THE TREND OF THE
OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL CHOICE...QUICK SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING IN THE
DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60+ KT H5 JET STREAK. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. NOT
TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT.
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BOTH LACKING IN THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
WEST OF HWY 61 WHERE HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING. TRENDED DOWN POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BUT CONTINUE MENTION THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD POOL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS WELL. 1.5 PVU SFC DROPS BELOW 400MB ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA IN CONCERT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM THE MID LEVELS.
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AT CDR AND VTN ADVERTISES SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DESPITE A FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WINDY CONDITIONS..SO THE GRIDS WERE TRENDED
TOWARD A EC/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND FOR NOW. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...SENDING
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS AND SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE CWA. LATEST EC
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE
MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAS CALLED
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY...THEN WARMING
BACK UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ALLBLENDS CURRENTLY
GIVES LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE BETWEEN KBBW
AND KONL. MIFG OR BR IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY BETWEEN 2912Z AND 2914Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 280834
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WEST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. A CUT-OFF
CLOSED LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS NE NEB/SE S DAKOTA/SW MIN/NW IA. LOW
LEVEL JET HAS KICK UP WITH THE NOSE VEERING INTO NE NEB. THE
COMBINATION OF THE JET AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CREATING ENOUGH LIFT
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...SO FAR ISOLATED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA WITH A FEW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE...WHILE SOME CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS N CENTRAL...NEAR
THE SHOWERS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AS OF 3 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING EYES WILL FOCUS ON SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. SO FAR ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE CWA...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS CONTINUING THE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE
EAST. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SPRINKLES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST. MODELS ARE TAKING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
DRIFTING IT TO THE NE...AND MORNING MIXING WILL DIMINISH THE
NOCTURNAL JET SO EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT LIVED IN THE CWA.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEY...SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASE LL
MOISTURE. A BRIEF HOUR OR TWO OF PATCHY MORNING FOG CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER THE SHORT DURATION AND LOCALIZED NATURE WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.

THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD SUN...TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
GET ABOVE 80. THE ONLY COOL SPOT WILL BE FAR NW ZONES...MAINLY NRN
SHERIDAN COUNTY...WHERE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WESTERN STORM
SYSTEM....WILL HELP TO HOLD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

TONIGHT THE SW SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. INITIAL
WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW WILL EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAYBE
SOME THUNDER...TO WESTERN NEB. DRY AIR WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME
INITIALLY AND DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY - TUESDAY NIGHT

DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
A STRONG PV ANOMALY/UPPER LEVEL JUST STREAK DIGGING TROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SFC LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT..SO A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE AND BROAD SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
IN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT FROM THE PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS
LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

ALL MODEL SOLNS NOW SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED H5 LOW AS A STRONG PV
MAX EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST AND DEEPEST MODEL...HOWEVER THE TREND OF THE
OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE GFS. REGARDLESS OF THE
MODEL CHOICE...QUICK SFC LOW INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY EVENING IN THE
DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60+ KT H5 JET STREAK. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. NOT
TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT.
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BOTH LACKING IN THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SHORT LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AS FOR POPS...HAVE BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY
WEST OF HWY 61 WHERE HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS PWATS INCREASE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...AS WELL AS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRY AIR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING. TRENDED DOWN POPS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BUT CONTINUE MENTION THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/COLD POOL SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE CWA AS WELL. 1.5 PVU SFC DROPS BELOW 400MB ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA IN CONCERT WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD ALSO HELP MIX DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM THE MID LEVELS.
LATEST MAV GUIDANCE AT CDR AND VTN ADVERTISES SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
TO 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE
NAM IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DESPITE A FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WINDY CONDITIONS..SO THE GRIDS WERE TRENDED
TOWARD A EC/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND FOR NOW. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY

LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...SENDING
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS AND SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE CWA. LATEST EC
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE
MORE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN TRENDS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAS CALLED
FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S BY FRIDAY...THEN WARMING
BACK UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS UNDERNEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ALLBLENDS CURRENTLY
GIVES LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE BETWEEN KBBW
AND KONL. MIFG OR BR IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY BETWEEN 2912Z AND 2914Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 280530
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE
STREAMED NORTHWARD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHERE LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED FROM ARIZONA INTO
MONTANA. STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPUN OVER WESTERN IOWA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE SOARED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AS WARM AIR STREAMS NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WERE COMMON FOR MUCH OF
THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOCAL AREAS RANGING
FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WAS OBSERVED FROM THE VICINITY OF THE IOWA
UPPER LOW DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS LED TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND
THEREFORE HAVE OBSERVED DECENT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CA/NV THIS AFTN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EAST. COOLER WEATHER
PREVAILS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY OR MAY EVEN
MEANDER WESTWARD SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...WHICH WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...IT IS PROJECTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THIS SAME AREA WHICH COULD BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TIME-FRAME LOOKS TO BE 09Z TO 15Z CURRENTLY. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE ISN/T REAL HIGH THOUGH IN
PLACEMENT AND AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY.

ALSO LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS HIGHLIGHTING A STRONG INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER
EAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE RAP KEEPS MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS IT KEEPS THE POTENTIAL BETTER OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THESE DIFFERENCES MAINLY RELY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL PASS ON POTENTIAL TO ONCOMING
SHIFT.

LOOKING THEN INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE THOUGHT THAT ANY FOG AND/OR
CLOUD COVER THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND WITH
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECM AND NAM ARE THE SLOWEST SOLNS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THUS
RAIN CHANCES ARE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE FASTER AND STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLNS ARE A BETTER FCST BUT GIVEN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVERALL...THE NAM/ECM APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST FIT.

A SOLID PV ANOMALY WILL BE APPROACHING THE FCST AREA MONDAY AFTN AND
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
INTO THE EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT AND PWS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM/ECM SOLN PRODUCES 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
WEST DOWN TO 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST. POPS ARE LIMITED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THIS FORECAST AS MODEL TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST.

SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE
GFS/GEM MODELS SUGGEST 30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST COOLS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED AMPLE SHEAR WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN AS SOUTHERLY
H500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 60 KT. THIS IS TRUE BUT COUPLED WITH THE
STRONG LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS...20 TO 30 KT...THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR APPEARS WEAK NEAR 20 TO 30 KT AND THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
NARROW CAPE. THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER IN ALL SOLNS SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY.

THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY. THE H500MB
COLD POOL CENTERED OVER SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NEB WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE 500M AGL
WINDS IN THE GFS...ECM AND GEM INCREASE TO OVER 30 KT ACROSS NRN NEB
DURING THE AFTN WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY. THE 12Z ECM HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE DEEPER GFS/GEM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOLN. THE
STRONG WINDS DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PV ANOMALY AND H700MB
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KT SHOWN IN THESE MODELS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SECOND COLD FRONT SENDS H850MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 0C
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO JUST THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROST SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS HIGH MOVES OFF
VERY QUICKLY AND WARM AIR RETURNS TO THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE HIGHS RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE BETWEEN KBBW
AND KONL. MIFG OR BR IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY BETWEEN 2912Z AND 2914Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 280530
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE
STREAMED NORTHWARD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHERE LOTS
OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED FROM ARIZONA INTO
MONTANA. STRONG RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE A CUTOFF UPPER LOW SPUN OVER WESTERN IOWA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE SOARED TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS AS WARM AIR STREAMS NORTH UNDER THE RIDGE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WERE COMMON FOR MUCH OF
THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOCAL AREAS RANGING
FROM 80 TO 85 DEGREES.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT WAS OBSERVED FROM THE VICINITY OF THE IOWA
UPPER LOW DOWN INTO TEXAS. THIS LED TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...AND
THEREFORE HAVE OBSERVED DECENT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS CA/NV THIS AFTN WILL LIFT THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT
WILL SWEEP THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS WRN NEB WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EAST. COOLER WEATHER
PREVAILS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THE UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WILL STAY FAIRLY STATIONARY OR MAY EVEN
MEANDER WESTWARD SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK IMPULSE
OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW...WHICH WOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...IT IS PROJECTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE VEERING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THIS SAME AREA WHICH COULD BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO
DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TIME-FRAME LOOKS TO BE 09Z TO 15Z CURRENTLY. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT IN A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE SOMEWHERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE ISN/T REAL HIGH THOUGH IN
PLACEMENT AND AS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY.

ALSO LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS HIGHLIGHTING A STRONG INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER
EAST. THAT BEING SAID...THE RAP KEEPS MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...AS IT KEEPS THE POTENTIAL BETTER OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THESE DIFFERENCES MAINLY RELY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE...HAVE NOT ADDED FOG INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL PASS ON POTENTIAL TO ONCOMING
SHIFT.

LOOKING THEN INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE THOUGHT THAT ANY FOG AND/OR
CLOUD COVER THAT MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND WITH
DEEP MIXING EXPECTED...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECM AND NAM ARE THE SLOWEST SOLNS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THUS
RAIN CHANCES ARE DELAYED UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE FASTER AND STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLNS ARE A BETTER FCST BUT GIVEN
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVERALL...THE NAM/ECM APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST FIT.

A SOLID PV ANOMALY WILL BE APPROACHING THE FCST AREA MONDAY AFTN AND
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
INTO THE EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT AND PWS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61. THE NAM/ECM SOLN PRODUCES 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
WEST DOWN TO 1/4 INCH IN THE EAST. POPS ARE LIMITED TO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR THIS FORECAST AS MODEL TIMING IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE FORECAST.

SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY INCREASE TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE
GFS/GEM MODELS SUGGEST 30 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST COOLS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER LOW.

SPC SUGGESTED AMPLE SHEAR WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN AS SOUTHERLY
H500MB WINDS INCREASE TO 60 KT. THIS IS TRUE BUT COUPLED WITH THE
STRONG LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS...20 TO 30 KT...THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR APPEARS WEAK NEAR 20 TO 30 KT AND THE NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
NARROW CAPE. THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER IN ALL SOLNS SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MONDAY.

THE PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY. THE H500MB
COLD POOL CENTERED OVER SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
ACROSS NRN NEB WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE 500M AGL
WINDS IN THE GFS...ECM AND GEM INCREASE TO OVER 30 KT ACROSS NRN NEB
DURING THE AFTN WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY. THE 12Z ECM HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE DEEPER GFS/GEM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOLN. THE
STRONG WINDS DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PV ANOMALY AND H700MB
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 KT SHOWN IN THESE MODELS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH SUGGEST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. THE SECOND COLD FRONT SENDS H850MB TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 0C
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO JUST THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT FROST SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS HIGH MOVES OFF
VERY QUICKLY AND WARM AIR RETURNS TO THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE HIGHS RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE BETWEEN KBBW
AND KONL. MIFG OR BR IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY BETWEEN 2912Z AND 2914Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS/CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER







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