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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...THE FIRST IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE SECOND WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PUT NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY...AS MOST OF THE
DAY SAW SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SUNSHINE...GOOD SURFACE WARMING...AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MIXED VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. RED FLAG WARNING IS VERIFYING NICELY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS MOST
PLACES HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...FREQUENT WINDS TO OR ABOVE 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AGAIN TO AROUND
750-700MB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO PROMOTE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...TO NEAR 80 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
VERY DRY AGAIN SO LITTLE IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH PERHAPS
ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MORE
DETAILS ARE IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...

A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION GOING INTO
THE EXTENDED THAT MAY LEAD TO THE WEATHER PATTERN SLOWING. THE GFS
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO GOOD THAT MAY BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN
POPS IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE...THEN TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
BY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND MUCH WARMER AIR NORTH...
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR LINGERING FIRE
CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE 80S THEN BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS LOOKING BETTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAT COULD RESULT IN NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY THAT
COULD CREATE IMPACTS FOR VEGETATION BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT AT 6 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER THIS EVENING...SO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LESSENED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

FOR FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT DEWPOINTS WON/T
GET AS LOW. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS /TO 750MB/ FROM THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS IN ALL LEVELS OF THE MIXED
LAYER STAY AT 10KTS OR LESS. IF AREAS ARE ABLE TO MIX HIGHER...TO
700MB OR ABOVE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXIST /UP TO 25KTS/.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER DANGER BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID 80S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME WINDS DON/T LOOK TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS SPEEDS OF 15 TO
20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION...ROBERG










000
FXUS63 KLBF 242112
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
412 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN PV
ANOMALIES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH...THE FIRST IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE SECOND WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS PUT NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TODAY...AS MOST OF THE
DAY SAW SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE SUNSHINE...GOOD SURFACE WARMING...AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH MIXED VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. RED FLAG WARNING IS VERIFYING NICELY ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS MOST
PLACES HAVE CAUSED RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...FREQUENT WINDS TO OR ABOVE 25 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

WEAK SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT. WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THEREFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING AGAIN TO AROUND
750-700MB ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO PROMOTE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...TO NEAR 80 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
VERY DRY AGAIN SO LITTLE IS EXPECTED FOR CLOUD COVER...WITH PERHAPS
ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MORE
DETAILS ARE IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...

A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION GOING INTO
THE EXTENDED THAT MAY LEAD TO THE WEATHER PATTERN SLOWING. THE GFS
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO GOOD THAT MAY BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN
POPS IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE...THEN TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS
BY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND MUCH WARMER AIR NORTH...
ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR LINGERING FIRE
CONCERNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE 80S THEN BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST HOWEVER
INSTABILITY IS LOOKING BETTER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAT COULD RESULT IN NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY THAT
COULD CREATE IMPACTS FOR VEGETATION BY THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER THIS EVENING...SO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LESSENED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

FOR FRIDAY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT DEWPOINTS WON/T
GET AS LOW. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS /TO 750MB/ FROM THE LATEST MODELS
SHOW MINIMUM VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES
WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS IN ALL LEVELS OF THE MIXED
LAYER STAY AT 10KTS OR LESS. IF AREAS ARE ABLE TO MIX HIGHER...TO
700MB OR ABOVE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXIST /UP TO 25KTS/.
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER DANGER BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER. PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE MID 80S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME WINDS DON/T LOOK TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS SPEEDS OF 15 TO
20KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT
/6PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...KECK
AVIATION....BROOKS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 241700
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1200 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS. BASED ON RAPID
CITYS UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL...LOWERED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE WINDS
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING ALSO. HOWEVER...WINDS
MAY DROP OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATED OTHER FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA INCLUDING HAINES...MIXING
HEIGHT...TRANSPORT WINDS...AND VENTILATION RATE/SMOKE DISPERSAL.
PUBLIC FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
LIGHTNING WAS AROUND 05Z. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
CLEARED FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BIG WINNERS TONIGHT WERE GARFIELD
AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY BUT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS. FULL SUN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTH...WITH A NEARLY STACKED H5/H7
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED INVOF NORTHEAST COLORADO OR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 00Z MONDAY 28TH APRIL. GEFS ALSO CLUSTERING A AN H5
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SAME AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GEFS
ALL INDICATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW /NEAR 983MB/ IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH UNMODIFIED
RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SPELLS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS. THE
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT...THAT WILL
IMPACT SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TONIGHTS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THIS DRY SLOT WOULD IMPACT PART OR ALL OF
THE NWS NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THEREFORE AM
HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK IN FUTURE RUNS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO WARM HIGHS AND CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED FROM THIS
LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES COULD
BE QUITE INTERESTING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST 24/00Z ECMWF DUMBBELLS
A SECOND UPPER LOW WESTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY MERGING
THE TWO SYSTEM TOGETHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SENDING A LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS. GARFIELD...WHEELER
AND SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT IN FIRE ZONE 209 BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THAT ZONE WAS TRACE AMOUNTS OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA SAW A HUNDREDTH OR LESS OF
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS YESTERDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP BUT FUELS ARE STILL FAVORABLE. LOOKING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BORDER IN WYOMING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GUSTY TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MINIMUM RH WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAY FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE DAY 1 STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW RH BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 241442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
942 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

UPDATED FORECAST FOR MAINLY FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS. BASED ON RAPID
CITYS UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL...LOWERED
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. THE WINDS
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING ALSO. HOWEVER...WINDS
MAY DROP OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATED OTHER FIRE WEATHER
ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA INCLUDING HAINES...MIXING
HEIGHT...TRANSPORT WINDS...AND VENTILATION RATE/SMOKE DISPERSAL.
PUBLIC FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
LIGHTNING WAS AROUND 05Z. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
CLEARED FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BIG WINNERS TONIGHT WERE GARFIELD
AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY BUT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS. FULL SUN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTH...WITH A NEARLY STACKED H5/H7
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED INVOF NORTHEAST COLORADO OR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 00Z MONDAY 28TH APRIL. GEFS ALSO CLUSTERING A AN H5
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SAME AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GEFS
ALL INDICATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW /NEAR 983MB/ IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH UNMODIFIED
RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SPELLS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS. THE
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT...THAT WILL
IMPACT SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TONIGHTS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THIS DRY SLOT WOULD IMPACT PART OR ALL OF
THE NWS NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THEREFORE AM
HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK IN FUTURE RUNS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO WARM HIGHS AND CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED FROM THIS
LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES COULD
BE QUITE INTERESTING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST 24/00Z ECMWF DUMBBELLS
A SECOND UPPER LOW WESTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY MERGING
THE TWO SYSTEM TOGETHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SENDING A LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KOGA P6SM SKC. SKIES WILL
CLEAR WEST OF A LINE FROM KONL TO KBBW THROUGH NOON CDT. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS. GARFIELD...WHEELER
AND SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT IN FIRE ZONE 209 BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THAT ZONE WAS TRACE AMOUNTS OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA SAW A HUNDREDTH OR LESS OF
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS YESTERDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP BUT FUELS ARE STILL FAVORABLE. LOOKING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BORDER IN WYOMING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GUSTY TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MINIMUM RH WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAY FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE DAY 1 STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW RH BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 241127
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
LIGHTNING WAS AROUND 05Z. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
CLEARED FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BIG WINNERS TONIGHT WERE GARFIELD
AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY BUT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS. FULL SUN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTH...WITH A NEARLY STACKED H5/H7
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED INVOF NORTHEAST COLORADO OR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 00Z MONDAY 28TH APRIL. GEFS ALSO CLUSTERING A AN H5
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SAME AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GEFS
ALL INDICATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW /NEAR 983MB/ IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH UNMODIFIED
RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SPELLS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS. THE
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT...THAT WILL
IMPACT SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TONIGHTS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THIS DRY SLOT WOULD IMPACT PART OR ALL OF
THE NWS NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THEREFORE AM
HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK IN FUTURE RUNS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO WARM HIGHS AND CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED FROM THIS
LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES COULD
BE QUITE INTERESTING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST 24/00Z ECMWF DUMBBELLS
A SECOND UPPER LOW WESTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY MERGING
THE TWO SYSTEM TOGETHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SENDING A LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING WEST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KOGA P6SM SKC. SKIES WILL
CLEAR WEST OF A LINE FROM KONL TO KBBW THROUGH NOON CDT. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS. GARFIELD...WHEELER
AND SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT IN FIRE ZONE 209 BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THAT ZONE WAS TRACE AMOUNTS OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA SAW A HUNDREDTH OR LESS OF
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS YESTERDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP BUT FUELS ARE STILL FAVORABLE. LOOKING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BORDER IN WYOMING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GUSTY TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MINIMUM RH WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAY FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE DAY 1 STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW RH BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 240826
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
LIGHTNING WAS AROUND 05Z. FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE
CLEARED FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. BIG WINNERS TONIGHT WERE GARFIELD
AND WHEELER COUNTIES WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS WITH FIRE WEATHER...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR TERM.
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F DEGREES COOLER TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AGAIN TODAY
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS HAVE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY BUT CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
THIS. FULL SUN EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS. TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. FRIDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY AND WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 24/00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE STORM NORTH...WITH A NEARLY STACKED H5/H7
CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED INVOF NORTHEAST COLORADO OR WESTERN
NEBRASKA AT 00Z MONDAY 28TH APRIL. GEFS ALSO CLUSTERING A AN H5
CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SAME AREA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE GEFS
ALL INDICATE A VERY DEEP SURFACE LOW /NEAR 983MB/ IN THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM...WITH UNMODIFIED
RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
SPELLS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS. THE
CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS WILL BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT...THAT WILL
IMPACT SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TONIGHTS NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THIS DRY SLOT WOULD IMPACT PART OR ALL OF
THE NWS NORTH PLATTE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT
BEING SAMPLED BY UPPER AIR OBSERVING NETWORK. THEREFORE AM
HESITANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK IN FUTURE RUNS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO WARM HIGHS AND CUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED FROM THIS
LARGE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM. HOW THIS WHOLE SYSTEM EVOLVES COULD
BE QUITE INTERESTING. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST 24/00Z ECMWF DUMBBELLS
A SECOND UPPER LOW WESTWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA...EVENTUALLY MERGING
THE TWO SYSTEM TOGETHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SENDING A LARGE
SHIELD OF RAIN WEST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS WILL ALL PAN
OUT...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AT KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z AT THE TERMINALS TO
31015G25KT THROUGH 23Z...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. MID
CLOUDINESS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...TO BECOME SKC AFTER
12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WINDS. GARFIELD...WHEELER
AND SOUTHERN HOLT COUNTIES RECEIVED LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER NIGHT IN FIRE ZONE 209 BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THAT ZONE WAS TRACE AMOUNTS OR A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AT BEST. THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA SAW A HUNDREDTH OR LESS OF
PRECIPITATION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS YESTERDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP BUT FUELS ARE STILL FAVORABLE. LOOKING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE BORDER IN WYOMING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
GUSTY TROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER. MINIMUM RH WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND MAY FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE DAY 1 STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A
CONCERN AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH LOW RH BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE
LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 240550 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1250 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW SUNDAY. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PRODUCE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVELY LARGE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY IN CANADA. THERE ARE
TWO MAIN PV ANOMALIES AMONGST THE TROUGH...THE FIRST HAD MOVED OUT
OF COLORADO AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SECOND
WAS SEEN OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
HAD PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND AT 20Z WAS
ROUGHLY FROM K9V9 TO KBBW TO KMCK...THEN EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. HAVE BEEN SEEING CUMULUS ALONG THE FRONT IN KANSAS AND A
FEW CUMULUS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. JUST NOT GETTING ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT AT THE TIME TO BE GETTING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP YET AS RADAR IS STILL QUIET ALONG THE FRONT. FURTHER TO THE
WEST OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...VERY NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE TEENS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS THAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY 00Z. THERE IS GOOD
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA...SO WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES. THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. BY 06Z...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES END SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE THE HIGHEST. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR SO OF SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED...SO WILL NOT PUT ANY WIND HEADLINES OUT AT THIS TIME.

FOR THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FIRE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING DESPITE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND DEEP MIXING...COULD GET SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL COALESCE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN PULLING A LATE SEASON ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA FRIDAY BUT DROP INTO NERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 990 MB OR PERHAPS DEEPER WILL SET UP ACROSS NERN COLO/ERN
WY/ERN MT SATURDAY POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GEM...NAM...ECM AND GFS ALL
SHOW 80S FOR HIGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FALLING TO 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 60S NORTHEAST WHICH IS COOLER THAN ALL OF THE
MODEL FORECAST.

THE NAM AND THE ECM INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND LIGHT QPF SATURDAY AFTN SO ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLO.
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE WEATHER FRIDAY IS VERY TRANQUIL. WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CNTL
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NEARLY NEUTRAL WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO AROUND 985 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A VERY DEEP 4 CORNERS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS KS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR GETTING DRAWN INTO
THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD SEND THE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO ERN NEB. HOWEVER THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY...COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG CAPE...A WEAK CAP
AND 45 KT OF BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SPC DAY 5 SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS NCNTL NEB.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH. H850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KTS MONDAY AFTN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY INTO MISSOURI.

THE RAIN CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WRAP AROUND RAIN OR SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RAIN COULD EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A 3 WAY
BLEND OF THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SUGGESTED AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
COVERING ALL OF THE FCST AREA BUT SOME MODELS WERE WETTER OR DRIER
IN THE SOUTHWEST VS THE NORTHEAST SO AMOUNTS WILL VARY. THE HPC FCST
PREDICTS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 1 INCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL.

THE ECM STALLS THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTH WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BUT A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE
GEM...GFS AND ECM INDICATED 70S AS THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR 60S SO AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM AN ARCTIC
HIGH ACROSS CANADA WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40 TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY AT KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14Z AT THE TERMINALS TO
31015G25KT THROUGH 23Z...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. MID
CLOUDINESS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD...TO BECOME SKC AFTER
12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEES DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 700MB. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 15 PERCENT. WHAT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE
THE WINDS. THE GFS DOES HAVE WINDS OF 30KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHILE THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH SPEEDS OF 20KTS. WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BELIEVE THE FASTER WIND SPEEDS WILL HAPPEN...BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF MODELS GET ON BOARD WITH HIGHER WINDS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES. FOR FRIDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOW AGAIN...BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SO FIRE DANGER IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED. THEN LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND...A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...SO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 240008
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
708 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW SUNDAY. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PRODUCE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVELY LARGE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY IN CANADA. THERE ARE
TWO MAIN PV ANOMALIES AMONGST THE TROUGH...THE FIRST HAD MOVED OUT
OF COLORADO AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SECOND
WAS SEEN OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
HAD PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND AT 20Z WAS
ROUGHLY FROM K9V9 TO KBBW TO KMCK...THEN EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. HAVE BEEN SEEING CUMULUS ALONG THE FRONT IN KANSAS AND A
FEW CUMULUS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. JUST NOT GETTING ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT AT THE TIME TO BE GETTING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP YET AS RADAR IS STILL QUIET ALONG THE FRONT. FURTHER TO THE
WEST OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...VERY NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE TEENS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS THAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY 00Z. THERE IS GOOD
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA...SO WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES. THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. BY 06Z...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES END SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE THE HIGHEST. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR SO OF SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED...SO WILL NOT PUT ANY WIND HEADLINES OUT AT THIS TIME.

FOR THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FIRE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING DESPITE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND DEEP MIXING...COULD GET SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL COALESCE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN PULLING A LATE SEASON ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA FRIDAY BUT DROP INTO NERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 990 MB OR PERHAPS DEEPER WILL SET UP ACROSS NERN COLO/ERN
WY/ERN MT SATURDAY POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GEM...NAM...ECM AND GFS ALL
SHOW 80S FOR HIGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FALLING TO 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 60S NORTHEAST WHICH IS COOLER THAN ALL OF THE
MODEL FORECAST.

THE NAM AND THE ECM INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND LIGHT QPF SATURDAY AFTN SO ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLO.
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE WEATHER FRIDAY IS VERY TRANQUIL. WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CNTL
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NEARLY NEUTRAL WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO AROUND 985 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A VERY DEEP 4 CORNERS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS KS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR GETTING DRAWN INTO
THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD SEND THE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO ERN NEB. HOWEVER THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY...COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG CAPE...A WEAK CAP
AND 45 KT OF BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SPC DAY 5 SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS NCNTL NEB.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH. H850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KTS MONDAY AFTN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY INTO MISSOURI.

THE RAIN CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WRAP AROUND RAIN OR SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RAIN COULD EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A 3 WAY
BLEND OF THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SUGGESTED AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
COVERING ALL OF THE FCST AREA BUT SOME MODELS WERE WETTER OR DRIER
IN THE SOUTHWEST VS THE NORTHEAST SO AMOUNTS WILL VARY. THE HPC FCST
PREDICTS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 1 INCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL.

THE ECM STALLS THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTH WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BUT A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE
GEM...GFS AND ECM INDICATED 70S AS THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR 60S SO AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM AN ARCTIC
HIGH ACROSS CANADA WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40 TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS TO KLBF AND KVTN THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
UNLIKELY HOWEVER. SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS
NEAR 33015G25KT TO DIMINISH LATE EVENING...THEN INCREASE BY
15Z/24TH TO 31017G26KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEES DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 700MB. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 15 PERCENT. WHAT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE
THE WINDS. THE GFS DOES HAVE WINDS OF 30KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHILE THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH SPEEDS OF 20KTS. WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BELIEVE THE FASTER WIND SPEEDS WILL HAPPEN...BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF MODELS GET ON BOARD WITH HIGHER WINDS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES. FOR FRIDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOW AGAIN...BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SO FIRE DANGER IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED. THEN LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND...A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...SO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 232044
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
344 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW SUNDAY. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PRODUCE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXTENSIVELY LARGE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY IN CANADA. THERE ARE
TWO MAIN PV ANOMALIES AMONGST THE TROUGH...THE FIRST HAD MOVED OUT
OF COLORADO AND INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE SECOND
WAS SEEN OVER ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
HAD PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA AND AT 20Z WAS
ROUGHLY FROM K9V9 TO KBBW TO KMCK...THEN EXTENDING INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. HAVE BEEN SEEING CUMULUS ALONG THE FRONT IN KANSAS AND A
FEW CUMULUS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. JUST NOT GETTING ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT AT THE TIME TO BE GETTING PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP YET AS RADAR IS STILL QUIET ALONG THE FRONT. FURTHER TO THE
WEST OVER THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...VERY NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IN THE TEENS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING INCREASING
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND AS THAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY 00Z. THERE IS GOOD
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA...SO WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...BUT
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY PUSHES EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES. THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. BY 06Z...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES END SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE WILL BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SOME
STRONG WINDS...PRIMARILY TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE PRESSURE RISES
WILL BE THE HIGHEST. COULD SEE AN HOUR OR SO OF SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BUT BELIEVE THIS WILL BE FAIRLY
SHORT LIVED...SO WILL NOT PUT ANY WIND HEADLINES OUT AT THIS TIME.

FOR THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FIRE
CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD WARMING DESPITE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE LAST FEW
DAYS. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 700MB...HIGHS ARE LOOKING TO BE FROM
THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S. IN ADDITION...WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND DEEP MIXING...COULD GET SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL COALESCE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN PULLING A LATE SEASON ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA FRIDAY BUT DROP INTO NERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
AROUND 990 MB OR PERHAPS DEEPER WILL SET UP ACROSS NERN COLO/ERN
WY/ERN MT SATURDAY POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THE GEM...NAM...ECM AND GFS ALL
SHOW 80S FOR HIGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FALLING TO 60S AND
70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 60S NORTHEAST WHICH IS COOLER THAN ALL OF THE
MODEL FORECAST.

THE NAM AND THE ECM INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND LIGHT QPF SATURDAY AFTN SO ISOLATED POPS ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEB. A CORRIDOR OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLO.
THE WINDS BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE WEATHER FRIDAY IS VERY TRANQUIL. WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CNTL
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION IS NEARLY NEUTRAL WHICH SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO AROUND 985 MB ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A VERY DEEP 4 CORNERS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS KS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR GETTING DRAWN INTO
THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD SEND THE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO ERN NEB. HOWEVER THIS PROCESS...A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY...COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SFC BASED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG CAPE...A WEAK CAP
AND 45 KT OF BULK SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SPC DAY 5 SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS NCNTL NEB.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST MONDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 MPH. H850MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KTS MONDAY AFTN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
STRONG WINDS COULD CONTINUE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
SLOWLY INTO MISSOURI.

THE RAIN CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND WRAP AROUND RAIN OR SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RAIN COULD EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A 3 WAY
BLEND OF THE GEM...GFS AND ECM SUGGESTED AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
COVERING ALL OF THE FCST AREA BUT SOME MODELS WERE WETTER OR DRIER
IN THE SOUTHWEST VS THE NORTHEAST SO AMOUNTS WILL VARY. THE HPC FCST
PREDICTS 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 1 INCH IN THE
NORTHEAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS OPERATIONAL MODEL.

THE ECM STALLS THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. THIS
PLACES THE FCST AREA IN NORTH WINDS AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S BUT A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE
GEM...GFS AND ECM INDICATED 70S AS THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR 60S SO AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE
WILL BE WATCHING THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH FROM AN ARCTIC
HIGH ACROSS CANADA WHICH COULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40 TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WIND CONCERNS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KLBF TO KANW...WHILE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT EAST OF THIS LINE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GET A
REPRIEVE AFTER 06Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS MIXING THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO
RETURN. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LOCALLY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. UNLESS A LOCATION SEES
A PASSING SHOWER OR STORMS TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE
LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEES DEEP MIXING
TO AROUND 700MB. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DOWN AROUND 15 PERCENT. WHAT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE
THE WINDS. THE GFS DOES HAVE WINDS OF 30KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHILE THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH SPEEDS OF 20KTS. WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BELIEVE THE FASTER WIND SPEEDS WILL HAPPEN...BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF MODELS GET ON BOARD WITH HIGHER WINDS BEFORE
ISSUING ANY FIRE HEADLINES. FOR FRIDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE
LOW AGAIN...BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED SO FIRE DANGER IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED. THEN LOOKING TO THE WEEKEND...A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...SO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 231729
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1229 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

WIND CONCERNS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM KIML TO KLBF TO KANW...WHILE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT EAST OF THIS LINE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GET A
REPRIEVE AFTER 06Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS MIXING THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO
RETURN. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LOCALLY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BUT...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STAY EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. UNLESS A LOCATION SEES
A PASSING SHOWER OR STORMS TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CLOSELY WATCHING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS /FIRE ZONE 204/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT...NOW
LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO /WEST OF KHEQ/ NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA /NEAR KPHP/.
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
700MB AND BELIEVE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS A BIT
DRIER THAN HAD BEEN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. USING A MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINT...SOME PLACES COULD SEE VALUES DOWN NEAR 20F OR EVEN THE
LOW TEENS. THE FORECAST DOESN/T GO THIS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS IF BY CHANCE A SHORT
FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 231507
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1007 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL. BY 20Z CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF KLBF FROM 20Z
THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
RANGING FROM 12000 TO 15000 FT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

CLOSELY WATCHING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS /FIRE ZONE 204/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT...NOW
LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO /WEST OF KHEQ/ NORTH THROUGH
THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA /NEAR KPHP/.
DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO
700MB AND BELIEVE WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS A BIT
DRIER THAN HAD BEEN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. USING A MIXED LAYER
DEWPOINT...SOME PLACES COULD SEE VALUES DOWN NEAR 20F OR EVEN THE
LOW TEENS. THE FORECAST DOESN/T GO THIS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT
WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS IF BY CHANCE A SHORT
FUSED RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 231133
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL THROUGH 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AON 20000 FT AGL. BY 20Z CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF KLBF FROM 20Z
THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS
RANGING FROM 12000 TO 15000 FT AGL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED THEREAFTER. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 230901
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
401 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...NWD INTO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. OFF TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SSE OF THIS
FEATURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z TONIGHT HAS
A NICE SHORTWAVE OVER NRN UTAH AND SERN IDAHO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NWRN COLORADO AND SRN
WYOMING. FURTHER EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS THANKS TO A 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT EAST OF A LINE FROM AINSWORTH TO
OGALLALA THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN MT...WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE
GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...3 AM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 53 AT BROKEN BOW TO
60 AT IMPERIAL AND THEDFORD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
OTHER CONCERNS CENTER ON WINDS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...ALONG
WITH THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS
MORNING...THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID MORNING AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS PRESENT ACROSS
THE FAR NERN CWA. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST TO A LINE FROM
VALENTINE...TO NORTH PLATTE TO HAYES CENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET THIS MORNING...WE COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FCST
WINDS ARE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PLAN ON NO HEADLINES
ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE H85 JET
MIGRATES FROM THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS CAPPING ERODES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE INVOF OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM
BASSETT TO NORTH PLATTE TO EAST OF HAYES CENTER. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH...WILL PUSH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD FROM CENTRAL KS TDY. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND STRONG
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A SAFE BET ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAIL AND WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AS DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL. WITH THE POSITION OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM ONEILL...TO BROKEN BOW...TO MAYWOOD. POPS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY WEST OF THIS LINE...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE...TO SUTHERLAND...TO GRANT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE FORCED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH RESPECT TO FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE BEHIND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE TWENTIES IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
PERCENT. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THANKS TO DECENT 3
HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB FROM 21Z TO 00Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...EXPECTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE JUST
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA SO NO FIRE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA...IN WELL MIXED AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE. 500M WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE TIME OF LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND HAVE THE ONCOMING SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
BEFORE ISSUING ANY TYPE OF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGE AXIS
CROSSES THE AREA AND WINDS DECOUPLE. NOT EXPECTING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT...BUT FAVORED LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 30S.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY IN ERNEST FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ADVECTING H85 TEMPERATURES OF 20C INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE 70S. STILL SOME
CONCERN REGARDING WILDFIRE POTENTIAL...BUT IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN CHECK...AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE
30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE NAM MODEL
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND THE MODEL DEVELOPS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL CAPE AS A
RESULT. THE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP. THEREFORE THESE MODELS
ARE INDICATING LESS IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL ADD AN ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IN THE NAM.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 23/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND HAVE THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THOUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/WESTERN
ARIZONA AT 18Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...BOTH MODELS RAPIDLY DEEPEN
A SURFACE LOW /NEAR 988MB/ DOWNSTREAM IN FAVORED CYCLOGENESIS REGION
OF EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS...ECMWF AND THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
BRING A POTENT/DYNAMIC NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A CLOSED H5 AND H7 CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE A DEEP 985MB SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH MONDAY.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD MOISTURE. IT WILL
OF COURSE HINGE ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A SHARP WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON/NEAR.
WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES JUST
YET...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BOTH THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN OR
VERY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH A
STRONG SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT. THE
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WOULD FAVOR THE DRY SLOT AIMING MORE AT SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEBRASKA. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA...AS A PERSISTENT
SHIELD OF RAIN COULD LINGER FOR MANY HOURS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCE IS RATHER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF KLBF EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT TS MENTION AT KLBF
UNTIL MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL LOCATION/TIMING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






000
FXUS63 KLBF 230502
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1202 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATE INCLUDED FRESHENING UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LATE
TONIGHT...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE LATEST RAP HAS
400-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE NORTHEAST LATE. WILL WAIT FOR
LATEST NAM BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM  CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. A GOOD FETCH OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DEW POINTS INCREASED INTO THE 40S IN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...CLOUD BASES WERE
AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED AREAS
OVER THE PANHANDLE HAD BUILT UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH...WITH 100-200 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THE ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE IF THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ACROSS THE AREA...DON/T THINK THE LLJ WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TONIGHT...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY 18Z LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY FROM KMCK TO KONL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
06Z TO 15Z...BUT WITH IT BEING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
NOT SUBSIDENT AIR...AND ALSO IT BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DON/T
KNOW IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.

THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
DEW POINTS RISING UP AROUND 50 OR HIGHER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL DEPEND WHAT AREAS SEE RAINFALL. DID PUSH CHANCES EAST
SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK THE STORMS MAY SKIRT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEREVER STORMS DO FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC. WILL BE
WATCHING THESE CHANCES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL UPPER PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS MT THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY...BUT AS
THE NEXT ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD IT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WED NIGHT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS SWD INTO
WEST TX. BY WED NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE LBF CWA
AND WILL TREND THE PRECIP CHCS EWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DRY
WHICH THE CURRENT GFCST HAS HANDLED WELL.

UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TRANSITORY
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS REMAINING. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP IN TO THE TEENS IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DESPITE
THE AREA NEING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPS WILL REACH ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS.

NEXT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODEL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EVOLVES. THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM THE 22.00Z RUN...MOVING THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN...LOCATED OVER NRN NEB INTO
SRM SD. THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE WITH
THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME AS ALL
MODELS DO...THE LEAD UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BOTH AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SEVERE...RESTS HEAVILY WITH THE
POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT. GFS POSITIONS THE WARM FRONT IN
KS...FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR TO THE 22.12Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN MODEL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO CUT OFF
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REDEVELOP IT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN SOME FASHION...BUT AGAIN TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
UNSETTLED...COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP...INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
COLDER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE APR 23 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS AT THE TAF
SITES AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
CHANCE IS RATHER LOW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF KLBF EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITHOUT TS MENTION AT KLBF
UNTIL MODELS COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL LOCATION/TIMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HEIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 PERCENT WITH WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25
MPH. THEN ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
DEW POINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S WILL EQUATE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. BOTH DAYS ARE
LOOKING TO HAVE NEAR HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT MAY STAY
JUST UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 230124
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
824 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATE INCLUDED FRESHENING UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. LATE
TONIGHT...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR ACTIVITY INCREASING IN THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE LATEST RAP HAS
400-700 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE NORTHEAST LATE. WILL WAIT FOR
LATEST NAM BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO PRECIP FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM  CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. A GOOD FETCH OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DEW POINTS INCREASED INTO THE 40S IN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...CLOUD BASES WERE
AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED AREAS
OVER THE PANHANDLE HAD BUILT UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH...WITH 100-200 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THE ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE IF THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ACROSS THE AREA...DON/T THINK THE LLJ WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TONIGHT...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY 18Z LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY FROM KMCK TO KONL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
06Z TO 15Z...BUT WITH IT BEING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
NOT SUBSIDENT AIR...AND ALSO IT BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DON/T
KNOW IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.

THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
DEW POINTS RISING UP AROUND 50 OR HIGHER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL DEPEND WHAT AREAS SEE RAINFALL. DID PUSH CHANCES EAST
SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK THE STORMS MAY SKIRT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEREVER STORMS DO FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC. WILL BE
WATCHING THESE CHANCES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL UPPER PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS MT THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY...BUT AS
THE NEXT ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD IT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WED NIGHT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS SWD INTO
WEST TX. BY WED NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE LBF CWA
AND WILL TREND THE PRECIP CHCS EWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DRY
WHICH THE CURRENT GFCST HAS HANDLED WELL.

UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TRANSITORY
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS REMAINING. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP IN TO THE TEENS IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DESPITE
THE AREA NEING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPS WILL REACH ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS.

NEXT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODEL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EVOLVES. THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM THE 22.00Z RUN...MOVING THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN...LOCATED OVER NRN NEB INTO
SRM SD. THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE WITH
THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME AS ALL
MODELS DO...THE LEAD UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BOTH AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SEVERE...RESTS HEAVILY WITH THE
POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT. GFS POSITIONS THE WARM FRONT IN
KS...FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR TO THE 22.12Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN MODEL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO CUT OFF
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REDEVELOP IT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN SOME FASHION...BUT AGAIN TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
UNSETTLED...COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP...INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
COLDER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LATEST TAF ISSUANCE HIGHLIGHTS WINDS PRIMARILY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT
BELIEVE LIKELIHOOD OF A TS NEAR A TERMINAL IS VERY LOW.
TOMORROW....A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP OUT
OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF KLBF AND KVTN BY
THE TIME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AT KLBF TO FAVOR A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE TERMINAL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE
LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE NEW MODEL DATA THIS EVENING FOR FRONT
TIMING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HEIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 PERCENT WITH WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25
MPH. THEN ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
DEW POINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S WILL EQUATE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. BOTH DAYS ARE
LOOKING TO HAVE NEAR HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT MAY STAY
JUST UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 222342
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM  CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. A GOOD FETCH OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DEW POINTS INCREASED INTO THE 40S IN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...CLOUD BASES WERE
AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED AREAS
OVER THE PANHANDLE HAD BUILT UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH...WITH 100-200 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THE ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE IF THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ACROSS THE AREA...DON/T THINK THE LLJ WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TONIGHT...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY 18Z LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY FROM KMCK TO KONL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
06Z TO 15Z...BUT WITH IT BEING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
NOT SUBSIDENT AIR...AND ALSO IT BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DON/T
KNOW IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.

THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
DEW POINTS RISING UP AROUND 50 OR HIGHER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL DEPEND WHAT AREAS SEE RAINFALL. DID PUSH CHANCES EAST
SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK THE STORMS MAY SKIRT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEREVER STORMS DO FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC. WILL BE
WATCHING THESE CHANCES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL UPPER PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS MT THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY...BUT AS
THE NEXT ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD IT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WED NIGHT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS SWD INTO
WEST TX. BY WED NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE LBF CWA
AND WILL TREND THE PRECIP CHCS EWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DRY
WHICH THE CURRENT GFCST HAS HANDLED WELL.

UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TRANSITORY
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS REMAINING. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP IN TO THE TEENS IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DESPITE
THE AREA NEING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPS WILL REACH ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS.

NEXT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODEL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EVOLVES. THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FROM THE 22.00Z RUN...MOVING THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN...LOCATED OVER NRN NEB INTO
SRM SD. THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE WITH
THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME AS ALL
MODELS DO...THE LEAD UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BOTH AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SEVERE...RESTS HEAVILY WITH THE
POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT. GFS POSITIONS THE WARM FRONT IN
KS...FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR TO THE 22.12Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN MODEL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO CUT OFF
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REDEVELOP IT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN SOME FASHION...BUT AGAIN TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
UNSETTLED...COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP...INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
COLDER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

LATEST TAF ISSUANCE HIGHLIGHTS WINDS PRIMARILY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS...SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT
BELIEVE LIKELIHOOD OF A TS NEAR A TERMINAL IS VERY LOW.
TOMORROW....A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP OUT
OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF KLBF AND KVTN BY
THE TIME SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH AT KLBF TO FAVOR A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE TERMINAL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE
LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE NEW MODEL DATA THIS EVENING FOR FRONT
TIMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HEIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 PERCENT WITH WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25
MPH. THEN ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
DEW POINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S WILL EQUATE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. BOTH DAYS ARE
LOOKING TO HAVE NEAR HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT MAY STAY
JUST UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 222133
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
433 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM  CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. A GOOD FETCH OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DEWPOINTS INCREASED INTO THE 40S IN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...CLOUD BASES WERE
AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED AREAS
OVER THE PANHANDLE HAD BUILT UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH...WITH 100-200 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THE ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE IF THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ACROSS THE AREA...DON/T THINK THE LLJ WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TONIGHT...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY 18Z LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY FROM KMCK TO KONL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
06Z TO 15Z...BUT WITH IT BEING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
NOT SUBSIDENT AIR...AND ALSO IT BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DON/T
KNOW IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.

THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING UP AROUND 50 OR HIGHER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL DEPEND WHAT AREAS SEE RAINFALL. DID PUSH CHANCES EAST
SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK THE STORMS MAY SKIRT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEREVER STORMS DO FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC. WILL BE
WATCHING THESE CHANCES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL UPPER PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS MT THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY...BUT AS
THE NEXT ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD IT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WED NIGHT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS SWD INTO
WEST TX. BY WED NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE LBF CWA
AND WILL TREND THE PRECIP CHCS EWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DRY
WHICH THE CURRENT GFCST HAS HANDLED WELL.

UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TRANSITORY
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS REMAINING. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP IN TO THE TEENS IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DESPITE
THE AREA NEING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPS WILL REACH ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS.

NEXT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODEL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EVOLVES. THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFEENCES FROM THE 22.00Z RUN...MOVING THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN...LOCATED OVER NRN NEB INTO
SRM SD. THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE WITH
THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME AS ALL
MODELS DO...THE LEAD UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BOTH AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SEVERE...RESTS HEAVILY WITH THE
POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT. GFS PSITIONS THE WARM FRONT IN
KS...FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR TO THE 22.12Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN MODEL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSIBILITY IN
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO CUT OFF
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REDEVELOP IT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN SOME FASHION...BUT AGAIN TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
UNSETTLED...COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP...INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
COLDER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL STAY
BETWEEN 15KT AND 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
THE STATE DON/T EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCTS AT KLBF AS
THERE COULD BE A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR
/KVTN TO KLBF/ BY 18Z TUESDAY SO WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE WINDS TURN
TO THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH IS JUST OUT OF THE TIME FRAME OF THIS FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 433 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL HEIGHTEN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AS DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 25 PERCENT WITH WINDS BLOWING AT 15 TO 25
MPH. THEN ON THURSDAY...DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA AS
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S WILL EQUATE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...BUT
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW STRONG THEY WILL GET. BOTH DAYS ARE
LOOKING TO HAVE NEAR HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT MAY STAY
JUST UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHING THIS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...BROOKS
FIRE WEATHER...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 222102
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM  CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AT 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...RIDGING OVER THE
PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. A GOOD FETCH OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SEEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS BROUGHT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRETY
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH FREQUENT SPEEDS OF 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE DEWPOINTS INCREASED INTO THE 40S IN PARTS
OF THE PANHANDLE. EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR...CLOUD BASES WERE
AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED AREAS
OVER THE PANHANDLE HAD BUILT UP TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE. WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME INSTABILITY...EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND WILL SLOWLY MAKE
AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SOME INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL BE QUITE WEAK THOUGH...WITH 100-200 J/KG. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. THE ONE THING TO
WATCH WILL BE IF THE INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR ACROSS THE AREA...DON/T THINK THE LLJ WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE DRY AIR AND DON/T EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STAYS TIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING
TONIGHT...SO LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHICH WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL STAY STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH BY 18Z LOOKS TO BE
ROUGHLY FROM KMCK TO KONL. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN
WINDS APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PERIOD OF THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
06Z TO 15Z...BUT WITH IT BEING IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
NOT SUBSIDENT AIR...AND ALSO IT BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...DON/T
KNOW IF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE.

THEN IN THE AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING UP AROUND 50 OR HIGHER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT WILL DEPEND WHAT AREAS SEE RAINFALL. DID PUSH CHANCES EAST
SLIGHTLY...BUT THINK THE STORMS MAY SKIRT THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHEREVER STORMS DO FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
TO EVEN SEVERE AS STRONGER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
STRONG DEEP LEVEL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DYNAMIC. WILL BE
WATCHING THESE CHANCES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INITIAL UPPER PV ANOMALY ROTATING ACROSS MT THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONT
LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY...BUT AS
THE NEXT ANOMALY MOVES THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES
EWD IT WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS NEBRASKA WED NIGHT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WRN KS SWD INTO
WEST TX. BY WED NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF THE LBF CWA
AND WILL TREND THE PRECIP CHCS EWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN DRY
WHICH THE CURRENT GFCST HAS HANDLED WELL.

UPPER LOW THEN MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS TRANSITORY
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS REMAINING. THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER DAY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW CRITERIA THOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP IN TO THE TEENS IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DESPITE
THE AREA NEING IN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPS WILL REACH ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS UNDER FULL SUN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS.

NEXT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER CA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD MODEL HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS TO HOW THIS NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER EVOLVES. THE 22.12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFEENCES FROM THE 22.00Z RUN...MOVING THE WARM FRONT
MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST RUN...LOCATED OVER NRN NEB INTO
SRM SD. THE POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE WITH
THE SYSTEM EVOLVING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME AS ALL
MODELS DO...THE LEAD UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INITIALLY AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD LOWER LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BOTH AMOUNT AND TYPE OF SEVERE...RESTS HEAVILY WITH THE
POSITION OF THIS WARM FRONT. GFS PSITIONS THE WARM FRONT IN
KS...FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND SIMILAR TO THE 22.12Z RUN OF
THE CANADIAN MODEL. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DISTINCT POSIBILITY IN
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO
BE IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO CUT OFF
THE UPPER LOW FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND REDEVELOP IT ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN SOME FASHION...BUT AGAIN TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
UNSETTLED...COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP...INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH THE POSITION DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
COLDER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL STAY
BETWEEN 15KT AND 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
THE STATE DON/T EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCTS AT KLBF AS
THERE COULD BE A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR
/KVTN TO KLBF/ BY 18Z TUESDAY SO WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE WINDS TURN
TO THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH IS JUST OUT OF THE TIME FRAME OF THIS FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 221752
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1252 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST OF WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NRN
CALIFORNIA. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
EXTENDED NWD INTO NRN ALBERTA. FURTHER EAST...A TANDEM OF
SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER ONTARIO AND THE SECOND
OVER THE OZARKS. CURRENT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NICE PLUME OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES
ATTM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SWD INTO NRN KS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE WESTERN CWA.
SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER 50S NOTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 34
AT BROKEN BOW TO 48 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK
EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO
AND WYOMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH A NICE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12C IN
THE NORTHEAST...TO 24C IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
AS VERY FAVORABLE MIXING WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THIS LED TO FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
EAST...TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST. WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...FIRE DANGER WILL
BE EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
MODEL SOLNS INDICATE A MEAGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KS INTO
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NAM DEW POINTS
REACH THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FELT THIS WAS A
STRETCH GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MIXING TDY AND LIMITED DEW POINTS TO
THE MID 30S. EVEN WITH A DRIER FORECAST...MINIMUM RH`S BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS STILL TOO
HIGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
WILL EXTEND FROM WASHINGTON...TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECENT...THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ISOLATED AT BEST. ATTM...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST GIVEN TIMING OF EXPECTED
INITIATION AND THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY STORMS. WITH THIS
SETUP...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST.
THOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DECREASE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THERMODYNAMICS WEAKEN...IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE
50+KT LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A FOCUS WILL BE THE SFC COLD
FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL IN
QUESTION...WHICH CAUSES CONCERNS ABOUT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME WITH NW ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S...STILL WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC LOW OVER S DAKOTA IN THE MORNING AND COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING NEAR THE BORDER.
BETTER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEAT...AS
CAP WEAKENS. GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM
STILL IS ONE OF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH AREAS ALONG ANW TO IML
TO BE INITIATION. BETTER MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH AND IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER KS/OK/TX FIRST SOME OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE CUT OFF WITH MORE ISOLD THAN SCT ACTIVITY.
EITHER WAY WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT AND SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

BEHIND THE FRONT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AGAIN
MOISTURE MAY BE TO MEAGER TO DEVELOP ANY ACTIVITY WITHIN THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX. AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST WITH
CLEARING SPREADING EAST.

THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
10C. FORECAST FOLLOWS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY TO HELP MIX. FRONT IS A PACIFIC FRONT WITH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S...MAYBE STILL 70 IN THE FAR SW.

FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ITS
WAKE SOME COLDER AIR IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN SOUTH. HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT FROM THE SW CONUS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A COOLER TREND AS COLD CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO
SPREAD SOUTH...EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND FAVORS SOME SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH
NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE LOW
WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHTER QPF AMOUNT EVENT. ALSO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR LOWS AND COLUMN WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS 0 TO -5C. CLIMATOLOGICALLY
LOOKING...THIS WILL BE ONLY A FEW DAYS FROM MAY...WHICH IS
UNCOMMON BUT NO RARE. EVEN LAST YEAR WE RECORDED SNOW OVER THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECTATION IS THAT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL STAY
BETWEEN 15KT AND 20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
THE STATE DON/T EXPECT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DID CONTINUE THE MENTION OF VCTS AT KLBF AS
THERE COULD BE A STRAY STORM OR TWO MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR
/KVTN TO KLBF/ BY 18Z TUESDAY SO WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE WINDS TURN
TO THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH IS JUST OUT OF THE TIME FRAME OF THIS FORECAST. AT
THIS TIME STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 221132
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST OF WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NRN
CALIFORNIA. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
EXTENDED NWD INTO NRN ALBERTA. FURTHER EAST...A TANDEM OF
SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER ONTARIO AND THE SECOND
OVER THE OZARKS. CURRENT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NICE PLUME OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES
ATTM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SWD INTO NRN KS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE WESTERN CWA.
SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER 50S NOTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 34
AT BROKEN BOW TO 48 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK
EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO
AND WYOMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH A NICE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12C IN
THE NORTHEAST...TO 24C IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
AS VERY FAVORABLE MIXING WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THIS LED TO FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
EAST...TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST. WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...FIRE DANGER WILL
BE EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
MODEL SOLNS INDICATE A MEAGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KS INTO
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NAM DEW POINTS
REACH THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FELT THIS WAS A
STRETCH GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MIXING TDY AND LIMITED DEW POINTS TO
THE MID 30S. EVEN WITH A DRIER FORECAST...MINIMUM RH`S BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS STILL TOO
HIGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
WILL EXTEND FROM WASHINGTON...TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECENT...THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ISOLATED AT BEST. ATTM...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST GIVEN TIMING OF EXPECTED
INITIATION AND THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY STORMS. WITH THIS
SETUP...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST.
THOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DECREASE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THERMODYNAMICS WEAKEN...IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE
50+KT LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A FOCUS WILL BE THE SFC COLD
FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL IN
QUESTION...WHICH CAUSES CONCERNS ABOUT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME WITH NW ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S...STILL WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC LOW OVER S DAKOTA IN THE MORNING AND COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING NEAR THE BORDER.
BETTER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEAT...AS
CAP WEAKENS. GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM
STILL IS ONE OF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH AREAS ALONG ANW TO IML
TO BE INITIATION. BETTER MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH AND IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER KS/OK/TX FIRST SOME OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE CUT OFF WITH MORE ISOLD THAN SCT ACTIVITY.
EITHER WAY WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT AND SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

BEHIND THE FRONT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AGAIN
MOISTURE MAY BE TO MEAGER TO DEVELOP ANY ACTIVITY WITHIN THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX. AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST WITH
CLEARING SPREADING EAST.

THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
10C. FORECAST FOLLOWS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY TO HELP MIX. FRONT IS A PACIFIC FRONT WITH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S...MAYBE STILL 70 IN THE FAR SW.

FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ITS
WAKE SOME COLDER AIR IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN SOUTH. HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT FROM THE SW CONUS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A COOLER TREND AS COLD CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO
SPREAD SOUTH...EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND FAVORS SOME SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH
NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE LOW
WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHTER QPF AMOUNT EVENT. ALSO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR LOWS AND COLUMN WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS 0 TO -5C. CLIMATOLOGICALLY
LOOKING...THIS WILL BE ONLY A FEW DAYS FROM MAY...WHICH IS
UNCOMMON BUT NO RARE. EVEN LAST YEAR WE RECORDED SNOW OVER THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
02Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 02Z. GIVEN THE
SPOTTY COVERAGE EXPECTED...DECIDED TO HANDLE IT WITH A VCTS AND
CIGS AROUND 10000 FT AGL. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END
AFTER 07Z WITH BROKEN CIGS AON 12000 FT AGL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOR
THE KVTN TERMINAL...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN UP
THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN CIGS AON 12000 FT AGL EXPECTED AFTER 01Z
WEDNESDAY. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AND WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KTS. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 220906
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
406 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST OF WASHINGTON...OREGON AND NRN
CALIFORNIA. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
EXTENDED NWD INTO NRN ALBERTA. FURTHER EAST...A TANDEM OF
SHORTWAVES WERE NOTED...THE FIRST OVER ONTARIO AND THE SECOND
OVER THE OZARKS. CURRENT WV IMAGERY INDICATES A NICE PLUME OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES
ATTM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS SWD INTO NRN KS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
THE EASTERN CWA AND SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE WESTERN CWA.
SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOWER 50S NOTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
COLORADO. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 34
AT BROKEN BOW TO 48 AT IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. FOR TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK
EAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO
AND WYOMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH A NICE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12C IN
THE NORTHEAST...TO 24C IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.
FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
AS VERY FAVORABLE MIXING WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. THIS LED TO FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE
EAST...TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST. WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...FIRE DANGER WILL
BE EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
MODEL SOLNS INDICATE A MEAGER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KS INTO
THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NAM DEW POINTS
REACH THE LOWER 40S IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. FELT THIS WAS A
STRETCH GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MIXING TDY AND LIMITED DEW POINTS TO
THE MID 30S. EVEN WITH A DRIER FORECAST...MINIMUM RH`S BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS STILL TOO
HIGH FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
WILL EXTEND FROM WASHINGTON...TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO INCREASED
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECENT...THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ISOLATED AT BEST. ATTM...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG
STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST GIVEN TIMING OF EXPECTED
INITIATION AND THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF ANY STORMS. WITH THIS
SETUP...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST.
THOUGH THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DECREASE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THERMODYNAMICS WEAKEN...IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE
50+KT LOW LEVEL JET AND DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.
WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE OF A FOCUS WILL BE THE SFC COLD
FRONT WORKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TIMING OF THE FRONT STILL IN
QUESTION...WHICH CAUSES CONCERNS ABOUT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME WITH NW ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S...STILL WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC LOW OVER S DAKOTA IN THE MORNING AND COULD
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING NEAR THE BORDER.
BETTER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEAT...AS
CAP WEAKENS. GOOD SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM
STILL IS ONE OF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WITH AREAS ALONG ANW TO IML
TO BE INITIATION. BETTER MOISTURE IS TO THE SOUTH AND IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER KS/OK/TX FIRST SOME OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE CUT OFF WITH MORE ISOLD THAN SCT ACTIVITY.
EITHER WAY WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT AND SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

BEHIND THE FRONT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AGAIN
MOISTURE MAY BE TO MEAGER TO DEVELOP ANY ACTIVITY WITHIN THE MID
LEVEL VORT MAX. AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST WITH
CLEARING SPREADING EAST.

THURSDAY WITH COOLER AIR OVERHEAD AND 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND
10C. FORECAST FOLLOWS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY TO HELP MIX. FRONT IS A PACIFIC FRONT WITH THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 60S...MAYBE STILL 70 IN THE FAR SW.

FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ITS
WAKE SOME COLDER AIR IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BE DRAWN SOUTH. HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
LIFT FROM THE SW CONUS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH A COOLER TREND AS COLD CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES TO
SPREAD SOUTH...EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND FAVORS SOME SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH
NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE LOW
WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHTER QPF AMOUNT EVENT. ALSO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
30S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND FOR LOWS AND COLUMN WOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS 850 MB TEMPS 0 TO -5C. CLIMATOLOGICALLY
LOOKING...THIS WILL BE ONLY A FEW DAYS FROM MAY...WHICH IS
UNCOMMON BUT NO RARE. EVEN LAST YEAR WE RECORDED SNOW OVER THE
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY AT KVTN AND KLBF
TERMINALS. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 17020G30KT BY 18Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AFTER 02Z TO BE 15015G25KT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE MAY MOVE NEAR
THE KLBF TERMINAL TOWARD 03Z AND INTRODUCED VCTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 220532
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1232 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN MOISTURE NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF THE CNTL ROCKIES
WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FIRING OFF A SECOND ROUND
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTN AND EVENING.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND PULL
DOWN COLD AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS AND
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

FOR TONIGHT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RECOVER. OVERNIGHT SURFACE WINDS VEER
TO SOUTHEAST...WHILE A SOUTHERLY H85 JET STREAK CRANKS UP TO 40 TO
50 KNOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...IN AREAS GENERALLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AS THE JET
STREAK DEVELOPS. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD BE AOB 10 KFT WITH LITTLE
IMPACTS SEEN OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MIXING
THAT WILL ALSO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP AND RANGING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S AT DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST ONTO THE WESTERN PLAINS WHILE
AT THE SURFACE THE DRYLINE DEVELOPS SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
H85 SOUTHERLY JET STREAK SUSTAINS TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTH...YET THE
DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER DURING THE DAY. LOW POPS
INCLUDED FOR THE FAR WEST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE HIGH BASED WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
DO SUGGEST THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
DRYLINE DEVELOPS SOUTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS TO RETAIN LOW POPS BUT CUT
BACK THE EASTERN EXTENT. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S NORTH CENTRAL TO MID 80S FAR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST ONE OR 2 CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING ACROSS WRN NEB TUESDAY EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KT IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE SRN MOST
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA.

THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM...ECM AND GFS SHOW THE STRONG PACIFIC
FRONT CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GEM IS
STILL BACK NEAR HIGHWAY 83 WHICH IS VERY SLOW LIKE IT SHOWED
YESTERDAY.

AT 18Z...NEAR NOONTIME WEDNESDAY...THE NAM SHOWS THE FRONT CLEAR OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHILE THE ECM...GFS AND GEM ARE FARTHER WEST. ONCE THIS
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END. THE
BEST CHANCE...AROUND 40 PERCENT...FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD APPEAR
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT AT 18Z SHOWN BY THE SLOWER MODELS SEVERE
WEATHER COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 MPH OR GREATER IN THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTN AND THERE COULD
EVEN BE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DEVELOPING GIVEN THE VERY LOW DEW POINT
AIR BEING ADVECTED IN OFF THE HIGH PLAINS.

ALL OR MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHECK ON THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
APPEARS QUITE MARGINAL WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND THE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN OFF BELOW
15 IN MOST AREAS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM. STILL THERE COULD
BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOCAL AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEDNESDAY
WHICH WOULD PRESENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

ALL OF THIS WEATHER CLEARS OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING THE FCST
AREA IN A BELT OF COOL DRY PACIFIC AIR FOR SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. SOME SOLNS SUCH AS THE GEM AND GFS SHOW STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING THURSDAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH BUT THE ECM AND NAM BACK THESE
WINDS DOWN TO 15 TO 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK HAS FORMED SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BEAUFORT COAST. IN TIME
THIS HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO AND GET PULLED SOUTH
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW WILL FORM ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. ALL MODELS DEVELOP RAIN AND UPSLOPE WINDS THIS WEEKEND WHICH
COULD LAST INTO MONDAY. A BLEND OF THE MORNING RUNS OF THE
GFS...ECM...GEM AND DGEX SUGGESTED 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE HPC FORECAST ISSUED LAST NIGHT. SO RAIN
IS QUITE POSSIBLE AS THIS UPPER LOW AND THE ARCTIC HIGH INTERACT
WITH GULF MOISTURE. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH BLOWS UP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ROBBING
THE NRN STATES OF RAINFALL.

HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY SLIDE TO THE 40S BY MONDAY. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING GIVEN THE H700MB FRONT IS LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH DURING THIS TIME IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY AT KVTN AND KLBF
TERMINALS. SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST BY MORNING. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 17020G30KT BY 18Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AFTER 02Z TO BE 15015G25KT.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE PANHANDLE MAY MOVE NEAR THE
KLBF TERMINAL TOWARD 03Z AND INTRODUCED VCTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...ROBERG








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