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000
FXUS63 KLBF 221959
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
259 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AT 19Z A BAND OF PRECIP CONTINUES ALONG A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FURTHER EAST
WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...ADVECTING
MOISTURE UPSLOPE TO THE WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEPLY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTRN COLORADO WHERE DEEP SFC BASED
DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTH OUT OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS....PUSHING PWATS TO OVER TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. VERY STRONG QG ASCENT AND A WEAK EML
SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ROBUST AND SUSTAINED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SUPPLIES AMPLE WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRIMARY AREA
OF CONVECTION SURGING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE THE MID LEVELS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
STRENGTHEN TO WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
UPSLOPE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THROUGH 9Z
TONIGHT. OVERALL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
1" OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVERY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 1630Z
UPDATE FROM SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
40 KTS WILL SUPPORT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATING MCS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER DARK AS COLD POOLS
MERGE. A SMALL WINDOW FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE FAVORABLE AREA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID RANGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN
PARTICULAR SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES/CLOSED SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...EMERGING ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER NERN
COLORADO SAT AFTERNOON AND WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...ATTM AM EXPECTING THIS TO TAKE PLACE EITHER IN SWRN
NEBRASKA OR NERN COLORADO...AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF EXITING
PCPN FROM TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN NEBRASKA. PCPN WILL RIDE NORTHEAST...NORTH OF AN
EXITING COLD FRONT...INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...MUCH DRIER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S COMPARED TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH A NICE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN KS/SRN NEBR BY 06Z MONDAY. DECENT MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RIDE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FROM
COLORADO INTO SWRN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ENHANCED MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY NIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PUSH WEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LAYER PWATS
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES MONDAY EVE...WHICH MAY LEAD HEAVY RAIN
AND INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL. WITH STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS...LIKELY POPS MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEEM ON
TRACK. PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS
A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES...FINALLY MIGRATES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...LEADING TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDS
ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS ARE
INDICATIVE OF THIS SOLN MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER IN PUSHING THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT VS WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD ONTO POPS WEDNESDAY AND NOT ELIMINATE THEM FROM THE
FCST UNTIL WEDS NIGHT. WARMER AND DRIER CONDS WILL SET IN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO THE MID 80S
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MAKE FOR A
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND WILL NOT DROP
CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AT EITHER KLBF OR KVTN. HOWEVER LATER TODAY
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL..HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING KLBF WHERE GR IS MENTIONED IN THE
TAF.

AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
THE FOG FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW DENSE OR WIDESPREAD THE FOG MAY BE.
HOWEVER LOW CIGS INTO IFR CATEGORY OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 221959
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
259 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AT 19Z A BAND OF PRECIP CONTINUES ALONG A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FURTHER EAST
WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...ADVECTING
MOISTURE UPSLOPE TO THE WEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEPLY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTRN COLORADO WHERE DEEP SFC BASED
DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTH OUT OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS....PUSHING PWATS TO OVER TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. VERY STRONG QG ASCENT AND A WEAK EML
SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD BY EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ROBUST AND SUSTAINED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SUPPLIES AMPLE WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRIMARY AREA
OF CONVECTION SURGING NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS WHERE THE MID LEVELS DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
STRENGTHEN TO WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
UPSLOPE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THROUGH 9Z
TONIGHT. OVERALL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
1" OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVERY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 1630Z
UPDATE FROM SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
40 KTS WILL SUPPORT AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A NORTHEASTWARD
PROPAGATING MCS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER DARK AS COLD POOLS
MERGE. A SMALL WINDOW FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE FAVORABLE AREA LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT IN NORTHERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID RANGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IN
PARTICULAR SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES/CLOSED SYSTEMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...EMERGING ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER NERN
COLORADO SAT AFTERNOON AND WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. AS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...ATTM AM EXPECTING THIS TO TAKE PLACE EITHER IN SWRN
NEBRASKA OR NERN COLORADO...AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF EXITING
PCPN FROM TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN NEBRASKA. PCPN WILL RIDE NORTHEAST...NORTH OF AN
EXITING COLD FRONT...INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...MUCH DRIER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S COMPARED TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH A NICE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN KS/SRN NEBR BY 06Z MONDAY. DECENT MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RIDE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FROM
COLORADO INTO SWRN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ON THE HEELS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND ENHANCED MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY NIGHT...SO THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PUSH WEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LAYER PWATS
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES MONDAY EVE...WHICH MAY LEAD HEAVY RAIN
AND INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL. WITH STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS...LIKELY POPS MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEEM ON
TRACK. PCPN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS
A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES...FINALLY MIGRATES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...LEADING TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDS
ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS ARE
INDICATIVE OF THIS SOLN MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER IN PUSHING THE FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT VS WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL HOLD ONTO POPS WEDNESDAY AND NOT ELIMINATE THEM FROM THE
FCST UNTIL WEDS NIGHT. WARMER AND DRIER CONDS WILL SET IN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO THE MID 80S
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80S FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MAKE FOR A
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND WILL NOT DROP
CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AT EITHER KLBF OR KVTN. HOWEVER LATER TODAY
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL..HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING KLBF WHERE GR IS MENTIONED IN THE
TAF.

AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
THE FOG FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW DENSE OR WIDESPREAD THE FOG MAY BE.
HOWEVER LOW CIGS INTO IFR CATEGORY OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 221732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 CDT CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 AND I-76 CORRIDORS. THIS BAND
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE NORTH AS MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO
A PV MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ADEQUATE HEATING AND BUILD
UP OF SFC INSTABILITY LATER TO FUEL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TWO AREAS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PUSHING PWATS TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF A
SFC WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN ROBUST AND SUSTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND SUPPLIES AMPLE WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP TO WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPSLOPE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS THROUGH 9Z TONIGHT. OVERALL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 1" OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITHIN AREAS OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVERY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SMALL WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE TORNADO THREAT DOES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THOUGH AS STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A HIGH DEGREE
OF PRECIP LOADING GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH NAM HAVING A BETTER
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION.
STRONG WAVE IN BOTTOM OF TROUGH TO THE WEST ENTERING FOUR CORNERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.
THIS LOW TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LIFTING A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN KLNX RADAR. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PWATS LAST NIGHT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 150% TO 175% OF NORMAL
AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. HAVE INTRODUCED MODERATE RAIN AND
UPPED QPF FIELDS. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COOLING
THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL KICK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 80S. BEST DYNAMICS
BETWEEN 23/00Z AND 23/03Z OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SBCAPES 3 TO 4 THOUSAND J/K. ONGOING THREAT OVER NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN DEFORMATION ZONE AS MAIN
ENERGY WITH UPPER LOW AND UPGLIDE PRODUCE FAVORABLE LIFT. MODELS
HAVE SYSTEM EXITING NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ONTO THE PLAIN BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY THE STRONG DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING AS THE PWATS DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE SO CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWN POPS.

BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY AS MORE SUN WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE DISTURBANCE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
A DIFFERENT STORY AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN STILL IN QUESTION...SO LOWER POPS FOR NOW
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASING FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
REBUILDING ACROSS THE PAC COAST. THE EC HOWEVER NOW HAS A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. THIS CREATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECTED. THE GFS WOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER...HOWEVER THE EC
WOULD FAVOR COOLER AND LOW POPS. THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PAST FEW
RUNS AS THE GFS WAS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THUS HIGH UNCERTAIN FROM
MID WEEK ON...SO STAY TUNED TO LIKELY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MAKE FOR A
COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND WILL NOT DROP
CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AT EITHER KLBF OR KVTN. HOWEVER LATER TODAY
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE
SANDHILLS REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL..HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING KLBF WHERE GR IS MENTIONED IN THE
TAF.

AS THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
THE FOG FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW DENSE OR WIDESPREAD THE FOG MAY BE.
HOWEVER LOW CIGS INTO IFR CATEGORY OR LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 221539 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1038 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 CDT CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 AND I-76 CORRIDORS. THIS BAND
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE NORTH AS MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO
A PV MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ADEQUATE HEATING AND BUILD
UP OF SFC INSTABILITY LATER TO FUEL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TWO AREAS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PUSHING PWATS TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF A
SFC WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN ROBUST AND SUSTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND SUPPLIES AMPLE WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP TO WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPSLOPE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS THROUGH 9Z TONIGHT. OVERALL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 1" OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITHIN AREAS OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVERY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SMALL WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE TORNADO THREAT DOES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THOUGH AS STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A HIGH DEGREE
OF PRECIP LOADING GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH NAM HAVING A BETTER
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION.
STRONG WAVE IN BOTTOM OF TROUGH TO THE WEST ENTERING FOUR CORNERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.
THIS LOW TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LIFTING A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN KLNX RADAR. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PWATS LAST NIGHT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 150% TO 175% OF NORMAL
AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. HAVE INTRODUCED MODERATE RAIN AND
UPPED QPF FIELDS. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COOLING
THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL KICK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 80S. BEST DYNAMICS
BETWEEN 23/00Z AND 23/03Z OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SBCAPES 3 TO 4 THOUSAND J/K. ONGOING THREAT OVER NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN DEFORMATION ZONE AS MAIN
ENERGY WITH UPPER LOW AND UPGLIDE PRODUCE FAVORABLE LIFT. MODELS
HAVE SYSTEM EXITING NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ONTO THE PLAIN BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY THE STRONG DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING AS THE PWATS DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE SO CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWN POPS.

BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY AS MORE SUN WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE DISTURBANCE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
A DIFFERENT STORY AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN STILL IN QUESTION...SO LOWER POPS FOR NOW
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASING FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
REBUILDING ACROSS THE PAC COAST. THE EC HOWEVER NOW HAS A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. THIS CREATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECTED. THE GFS WOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER...HOWEVER THE EC
WOULD FAVOR COOLER AND LOW POPS. THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PAST FEW
RUNS AS THE GFS WAS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THUS HIGH UNCERTAIN FROM
MID WEEK ON...SO STAY TUNED TO LIKELY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS NRN NEB AT 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NERN COLO WAS SHOWING LIGHTNING. THIS
HAS DIMINISHED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN NEB
LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC










000
FXUS63 KLBF 221539 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1038 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 CDT CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 AND I-76 CORRIDORS. THIS BAND
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE NORTH AS MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO
A PV MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ADEQUATE HEATING AND BUILD
UP OF SFC INSTABILITY LATER TO FUEL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TWO AREAS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PUSHING PWATS TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF A
SFC WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN ROBUST AND SUSTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND SUPPLIES AMPLE WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP TO WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPSLOPE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS THROUGH 9Z TONIGHT. OVERALL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 1" OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITHIN AREAS OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVERY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SMALL WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE TORNADO THREAT DOES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THOUGH AS STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A HIGH DEGREE
OF PRECIP LOADING GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH NAM HAVING A BETTER
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION.
STRONG WAVE IN BOTTOM OF TROUGH TO THE WEST ENTERING FOUR CORNERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.
THIS LOW TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LIFTING A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN KLNX RADAR. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PWATS LAST NIGHT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 150% TO 175% OF NORMAL
AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. HAVE INTRODUCED MODERATE RAIN AND
UPPED QPF FIELDS. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COOLING
THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL KICK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 80S. BEST DYNAMICS
BETWEEN 23/00Z AND 23/03Z OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SBCAPES 3 TO 4 THOUSAND J/K. ONGOING THREAT OVER NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN DEFORMATION ZONE AS MAIN
ENERGY WITH UPPER LOW AND UPGLIDE PRODUCE FAVORABLE LIFT. MODELS
HAVE SYSTEM EXITING NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ONTO THE PLAIN BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY THE STRONG DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING AS THE PWATS DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE SO CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWN POPS.

BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY AS MORE SUN WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE DISTURBANCE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
A DIFFERENT STORY AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN STILL IN QUESTION...SO LOWER POPS FOR NOW
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASING FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
REBUILDING ACROSS THE PAC COAST. THE EC HOWEVER NOW HAS A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. THIS CREATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECTED. THE GFS WOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER...HOWEVER THE EC
WOULD FAVOR COOLER AND LOW POPS. THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PAST FEW
RUNS AS THE GFS WAS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THUS HIGH UNCERTAIN FROM
MID WEEK ON...SO STAY TUNED TO LIKELY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS NRN NEB AT 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NERN COLO WAS SHOWING LIGHTNING. THIS
HAS DIMINISHED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN NEB
LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC











000
FXUS63 KLBF 221524
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 CDT CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 AND I-76 CORRIDORS. THIS BAND
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE NORTH AS MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO
A PV MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ADEQUATE HEATING AND BUILD
UP OF SFC INSTABILITY LATER TO FUEL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TWO AREAS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PUSHING PWATS TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF A
SFC WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN ROBUST AND SUSTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND SUPPLIES AMPLE WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP TO WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPSLOPE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS THROUGH 9Z TONIGHT. OVERALL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
NUMEROUS REP ROTS OF 1" OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITHIN AREAS OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVERY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SMALL WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE TORNADO THREAT DOES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THOUGH AS STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A HIGH DEGREE
OF PRECIP LOADING GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH NAM HAVING A BETTER
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION.
STRONG WAVE IN BOTTOM OF TROUGH TO THE WEST ENTERING FOUR CORNERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.
THIS LOW TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LIFTING A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN KLNX RADAR. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PWATS LAST NIGHT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 150% TO 175% OF NORMAL
AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. HAVE INTRODUCED MODERATE RAIN AND
UPPED QPF FIELDS. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COOLING
THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL KICK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 80S. BEST DYNAMICS
BETWEEN 23/00Z AND 23/03Z OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SBCAPES 3 TO 4 THOUSAND J/K. ONGOING THREAT OVER NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN DEFORMATION ZONE AS MAIN
ENERGY WITH UPPER LOW AND UPGLIDE PRODUCE FAVORABLE LIFT. MODELS
HAVE SYSTEM EXITING NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ONTO THE PLAIN BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY THE STRONG DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING AS THE PWATS DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE SO CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWN POPS.

BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY AS MORE SUN WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE DISTURBANCE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
A DIFFERENT STORY AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN STILL IN QUESTION...SO LOWER POPS FOR NOW
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASING FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
REBUILDING ACROSS THE PAC COAST. THE EC HOWEVER NOW HAS A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. THIS CREATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECTED. THE GFS WOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER...HOWEVER THE EC
WOULD FAVOR COOLER AND LOW POPS. THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PAST FEW
RUNS AS THE GFS WAS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THUS HIGH UNCERTAIN FROM
MID WEEK ON...SO STAY TUNED TO LIKELY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS NRN NEB AT 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NERN COLO WAS SHOWING LIGHTNING. THIS
HAS DIMINISHED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN NEB
LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 221524
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 CDT CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 AND I-76 CORRIDORS. THIS BAND
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE NORTH AS MID LEVEL WAA CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO
A PV MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ADEQUATE HEATING AND BUILD
UP OF SFC INSTABILITY LATER TO FUEL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TWO AREAS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...PUSHING PWATS TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST OF A
SFC WARM FRONT NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN ROBUST AND SUSTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND SUPPLIES AMPLE WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
AREA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS
WHERE A DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP TO WEST SIDE OF THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPSLOPE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS THROUGH 9Z TONIGHT. OVERALL...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
NUMEROUS REP ROTS OF 1" OF RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
WITHIN AREAS OF SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVERY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN IN CONCERT WITH
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SMALL WINDOW FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER AND SOUTH OF I-80. THE TORNADO THREAT DOES
REMAIN UNCERTAIN THOUGH AS STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE A HIGH DEGREE
OF PRECIP LOADING GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH NAM HAVING A BETTER
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION.
STRONG WAVE IN BOTTOM OF TROUGH TO THE WEST ENTERING FOUR CORNERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.
THIS LOW TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LIFTING A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN KLNX RADAR. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PWATS LAST NIGHT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 150% TO 175% OF NORMAL
AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. HAVE INTRODUCED MODERATE RAIN AND
UPPED QPF FIELDS. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COOLING
THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL KICK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 80S. BEST DYNAMICS
BETWEEN 23/00Z AND 23/03Z OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SBCAPES 3 TO 4 THOUSAND J/K. ONGOING THREAT OVER NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN DEFORMATION ZONE AS MAIN
ENERGY WITH UPPER LOW AND UPGLIDE PRODUCE FAVORABLE LIFT. MODELS
HAVE SYSTEM EXITING NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ONTO THE PLAIN BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY THE STRONG DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING AS THE PWATS DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE SO CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWN POPS.

BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY AS MORE SUN WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE DISTURBANCE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
A DIFFERENT STORY AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN STILL IN QUESTION...SO LOWER POPS FOR NOW
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASING FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
REBUILDING ACROSS THE PAC COAST. THE EC HOWEVER NOW HAS A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. THIS CREATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECTED. THE GFS WOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER...HOWEVER THE EC
WOULD FAVOR COOLER AND LOW POPS. THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PAST FEW
RUNS AS THE GFS WAS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THUS HIGH UNCERTAIN FROM
MID WEEK ON...SO STAY TUNED TO LIKELY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS NRN NEB AT 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NERN COLO WAS SHOWING LIGHTNING. THIS
HAS DIMINISHED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN NEB
LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 220902
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH NAM HAVING A BETTER
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION.
STRONG WAVE IN BOTTOM OF TROUGH TO THE WEST ENTERING FOUR CORNERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.
THIS LOW TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LIFTING A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN KLNX RADAR. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PWATS LAST NIGHT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 150% TO 175% OF NORMAL
AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. HAVE INTRODUCED MODERATE RAIN AND
UPPED QPF FIELDS. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COOLING
THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL KICK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 80S. BEST DYNAMICS
BETWEEN 23/00Z AND 23/03Z OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SBCAPES 3 TO 4 THOUSAND J/K. ONGOING THREAT OVER NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN DEFORMATION ZONE AS MAIN
ENERGY WITH UPPER LOW AND UPGLIDE PRODUCE FAVORABLE LIFT. MODELS
HAVE SYSTEM EXITING NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ONTO THE PLAIN BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY THE STRONG DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING AS THE PWATS DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE SO CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWN POPS.

BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY AS MORE SUN WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE DISTURBANCE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
A DIFFERENT STORY AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN STILL IN QUESTION...SO LOWER POPS FOR NOW
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASING FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
REBUILDING ACROSS THE PAC COAST. THE EC HOWEVER NOW HAS A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. THIS CREATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECTED. THE GFS WOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER...HOWEVER THE EC
WOULD FAVOR COOLER AND LOW POPS. THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PAST FEW
RUNS AS THE GFS WAS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THUS HIGH UNCERTAIN FROM
MID WEEK ON...SO STAY TUNED TO LIKELY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS NRN NEB AT 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NERN COLO WAS SHOWING LIGHTNING. THIS
HAS DIMINISHED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN NEB
LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 220902
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
402 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH NAM HAVING A BETTER
HANDLE ON ONGOING PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION.
STRONG WAVE IN BOTTOM OF TROUGH TO THE WEST ENTERING FOUR CORNERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE TO EJECT ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS TODAY.
THIS LOW TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LIFTING A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN KLNX RADAR. LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WAVE
TO THE SOUTHWEST EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS CONVECTION NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
PWATS LAST NIGHT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 150% TO 175% OF NORMAL
AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. HAVE INTRODUCED MODERATE RAIN AND
UPPED QPF FIELDS. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850MB
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 20C THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND COOLING
THROUGH THE EVENING. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND BULK SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL KICK IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 80S. BEST DYNAMICS
BETWEEN 23/00Z AND 23/03Z OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SBCAPES 3 TO 4 THOUSAND J/K. ONGOING THREAT OVER NIGHT AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. EASTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN DEFORMATION ZONE AS MAIN
ENERGY WITH UPPER LOW AND UPGLIDE PRODUCE FAVORABLE LIFT. MODELS
HAVE SYSTEM EXITING NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING ON
SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ONTO THE PLAIN BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY THE STRONG DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER A SECOND WEAKER WAVE WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING AS THE PWATS DROP
CLOSER TO SEASONAL. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE SO CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWN POPS.

BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY AS MORE SUN WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE DISTURBANCE TRACK TO THE NORTH AND IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
A DIFFERENT STORY AS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WAVE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
TROUGH. MOISTURE RETURN STILL IN QUESTION...SO LOWER POPS FOR NOW
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASING FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY MODELS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE
REBUILDING ACROSS THE PAC COAST. THE EC HOWEVER NOW HAS A LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. THE GFS DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. THIS CREATE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WHAT ONE
WOULD EXPECTED. THE GFS WOULD BE DRIER AND WARMER...HOWEVER THE EC
WOULD FAVOR COOLER AND LOW POPS. THIS IS A SHIFT FROM THE PAST FEW
RUNS AS THE GFS WAS THE COOLER SOLUTION. THUS HIGH UNCERTAIN FROM
MID WEEK ON...SO STAY TUNED TO LIKELY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS NRN NEB AT 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NERN COLO WAS SHOWING LIGHTNING. THIS
HAS DIMINISHED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN NEB
LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 220423 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ACTIVE FRIDAY EXPECTED...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED
FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CAL
SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL TURN WINDS EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY LATE TONIGHT...AND A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.

FRIDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAWS NEAR. ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECK...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIFT
INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
LOOKS DECENT...AND A SCATTERING OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT...AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND 4 PM CDT OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. WHILE LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PRECIPITATION
LOADING MAY FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD COVER OCCURS
THAN FORECASTED. BUT...WITH A WARM TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...DON/T
THINK WILL HAVE MUCH PROBLEM REACHING INTO THE 80S. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BUSY ACROSS THE CWA AS A CLOSED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 00Z SATURDAY A LEE SIDE
SFC LOW WILL BE SITUATED IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AND MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM NORTHEASTERN CO AND
NORTHWESTERN KS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 TO 40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER PEAKS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES TOWARD
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS A THE LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTES A STRONG WAA
REGIME AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL SURGE
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PUSH PWATS UPWARDS OF TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. MODEL BLENDED QPF PAINTS A SWATH OF 1"+ OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ...GENERALLY EAST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH LINE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KTS WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. THE LATEST
NAM RUN CHANGED TUNE AND FAVORED THE EASTERN PANHANDLE FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS AN OUTLIER AND
CONTRADICTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FOLLOWING THE VEERING LLJ THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE REMOVED POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 83 FOR SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND
THROUGH AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALOFT.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS AND EC ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND MONDAY. EC DIGS A TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF A LOW AS IT BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THE TROUGH EASTERLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE POOR CONSENSUS MAKES
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS DIFFICULT...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS NRN NEB AT 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NERN COLO WAS SHOWING LIGHTNING. THIS
HAS DIMINISHED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN NEB
LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 220423 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ACTIVE FRIDAY EXPECTED...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED
FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CAL
SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL TURN WINDS EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY LATE TONIGHT...AND A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.

FRIDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAWS NEAR. ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECK...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIFT
INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
LOOKS DECENT...AND A SCATTERING OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT...AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND 4 PM CDT OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. WHILE LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PRECIPITATION
LOADING MAY FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD COVER OCCURS
THAN FORECASTED. BUT...WITH A WARM TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...DON/T
THINK WILL HAVE MUCH PROBLEM REACHING INTO THE 80S. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BUSY ACROSS THE CWA AS A CLOSED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 00Z SATURDAY A LEE SIDE
SFC LOW WILL BE SITUATED IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AND MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM NORTHEASTERN CO AND
NORTHWESTERN KS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 TO 40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER PEAKS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES TOWARD
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS A THE LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTES A STRONG WAA
REGIME AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL SURGE
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PUSH PWATS UPWARDS OF TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. MODEL BLENDED QPF PAINTS A SWATH OF 1"+ OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ...GENERALLY EAST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH LINE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KTS WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. THE LATEST
NAM RUN CHANGED TUNE AND FAVORED THE EASTERN PANHANDLE FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS AN OUTLIER AND
CONTRADICTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FOLLOWING THE VEERING LLJ THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE REMOVED POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 83 FOR SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND
THROUGH AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALOFT.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS AND EC ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND MONDAY. EC DIGS A TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF A LOW AS IT BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THE TROUGH EASTERLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE POOR CONSENSUS MAKES
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS DIFFICULT...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THROUGH 18Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN NEB AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FCST AREA. STORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS NRN NEB AT 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NERN COLO WAS SHOWING LIGHTNING. THIS
HAS DIMINISHED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN NEB
LATER TONIGHT AND PERHAPS PERSIST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 212336 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
636 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ACTIVE FRIDAY EXPECTED...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED
FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CAL
SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL TURN WINDS EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY LATE TONIGHT...AND A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.

FRIDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAWS NEAR. ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECK...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIFT
INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
LOOKS DECENT...AND A SCATTERING OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT...AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND 4 PM CDT OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. WHILE LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PRECIPITATION
LOADING MAY FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD COVER OCCURS
THAN FORECASTED. BUT...WITH A WARM TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...DON/T
THINK WILL HAVE MUCH PROBLEM REACHING INTO THE 80S. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BUSY ACROSS THE CWA AS A CLOSED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 00Z SATURDAY A LEE SIDE
SFC LOW WILL BE SITUATED IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AND MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM NORTHEASTERN CO AND
NORTHWESTERN KS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 TO 40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER PEAKS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES TOWARD
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS A THE LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTES A STRONG WAA
REGIME AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL SURGE
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PUSH PWATS UPWARDS OF TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. MODEL BLENDED QPF PAINTS A SWATH OF 1"+ OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ...GENERALLY EAST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH LINE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KTS WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. THE LATEST
NAM RUN CHANGED TUNE AND FAVORED THE EASTERN PANHANDLE FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS AN OUTLIER AND
CONTRADICTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FOLLOWING THE VEERING LLJ THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE REMOVED POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 83 FOR SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND
THROUGH AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALOFT.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS AND EC ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND MONDAY. EC DIGS A TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF A LOW AS IT BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THE TROUGH EASTERLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE POOR CONSENSUS MAKES
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS DIFFICULT...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SRN CALIFORNIA
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
AN AREA OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN NEB BY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE VFR WOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY IF NO TSTMS
FORM. OTHERWISE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION DEVELOPS ACROSS
SWRN NEB FROM 21Z ONWARD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 212003
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ACTIVE FRIDAY EXPECTED...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED
FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CAL
SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL TURN WINDS EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY LATE TONIGHT...AND A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.

FRIDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAWS NEAR. ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECK...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIFT
INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
LOOKS DECENT...AND A SCATTERING OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT...AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND 4 PM CDT OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. WHILE LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PRECIPITATION
LOADING MAY FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD COVER OCCURS
THAN FORECASTED. BUT...WITH A WARM TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...DON/T
THINK WILL HAVE MUCH PROBLEM REACHING INTO THE 80S. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BUSY ACROSS THE CWA AS A CLOSED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 00Z SATURDAY A LEE SIDE
SFC LOW WILL BE SITUATED IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AND MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM NORTHEASTERN CO AND
NORTHWESTERN KS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 TO 40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER PEAKS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES TOWARD
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS A THE LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTES A STRONG WAA
REGIME AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL SURGE
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PUSH PWATS UPWARDS OF TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. MODEL BLENDED QPF PAINTS A SWATH OF 1"+ OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ...GENERALLY EAST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH LINE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KTS WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. THE LATEST
NAM RUN CHANGED TUNE AND FAVORED THE EASTERN PANHANDLE FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS AN OUTLIER AND
CONTRADICTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FOLLOWING THE VEERING LLJ THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE REMOVED POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 83 FOR SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND
THROUGH AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALOFT.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS AND EC ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND MONDAY. EC DIGS A TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF A LOW AS IT BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THE TROUGH EASTERLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE POOR CONSENSUS MAKES
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS DIFFICULT...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME VARIABLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 212003
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ACTIVE FRIDAY EXPECTED...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE DAY EXPECTED
FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN CAL
SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL TURN WINDS EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY LATE TONIGHT...AND A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE.

FRIDAY...EXPECT AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRAWS NEAR. ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DECK...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND LIFT
INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
LOOKS DECENT...AND A SCATTERING OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. INCREASING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT...AND SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INITIATE AROUND 4 PM CDT OR SO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. WHILE LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND PRECIPITATION
LOADING MAY FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY IF MORE CLOUD COVER OCCURS
THAN FORECASTED. BUT...WITH A WARM TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...DON/T
THINK WILL HAVE MUCH PROBLEM REACHING INTO THE 80S. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE BUSY ACROSS THE CWA AS A CLOSED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT 00Z SATURDAY A LEE SIDE
SFC LOW WILL BE SITUATED IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AND MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM NORTHEASTERN CO AND
NORTHWESTERN KS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 TO 40
KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER PEAKS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS
AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES TOWARD
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS A THE LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTES A STRONG WAA
REGIME AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL SURGE
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE TOP OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PUSH PWATS UPWARDS OF TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. MODEL BLENDED QPF PAINTS A SWATH OF 1"+ OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ...GENERALLY EAST OF A NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH LINE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION.
FORTUNATELY STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KTS WHICH
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. THE LATEST
NAM RUN CHANGED TUNE AND FAVORED THE EASTERN PANHANDLE FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS AN OUTLIER AND
CONTRADICTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FOLLOWING THE VEERING LLJ THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE REMOVED POPS
GENERALLY WEST OF HWY 83 FOR SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AND
THROUGH AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALOFT.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS AND EC ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND MONDAY. EC DIGS A TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF A LOW AS IT BUILDS A RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE THE TROUGH EASTERLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE POOR CONSENSUS MAKES
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS DIFFICULT...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME VARIABLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 211722
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR
THE FORECAST. UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH
CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN THE RING OF FIRE BETWEEN
FEATURES. ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DISTURBANCE ON
SATELLITE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWERS TO END. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HIGHS TODAY AROUND 90 OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. TONIGHT SLIGHT
CHANCES RETAINED FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
NO MAJOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE...HOWEVER DIFFERENCE DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WITH RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP THE PACIFIC MONSOON FLOW WITH POPS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME CONCERNS ON
TEMPS AS CLOUDS COULD HOLD STRONG WITH NO BREAKS AND KEEP TEMPS
LOWER.

SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SW. WILL ALSO SEE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN
LOW.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FROM RECENT
TRENDS...BRINGING WARMER AIR QUICKLY BACK TO THE REGION. THE GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT FORECAST AND THE
GFS...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE WARMER EC SOLUTION GETS ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME VARIABLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 211722
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR
THE FORECAST. UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH
CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN THE RING OF FIRE BETWEEN
FEATURES. ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DISTURBANCE ON
SATELLITE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWERS TO END. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HIGHS TODAY AROUND 90 OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. TONIGHT SLIGHT
CHANCES RETAINED FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
NO MAJOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE...HOWEVER DIFFERENCE DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WITH RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP THE PACIFIC MONSOON FLOW WITH POPS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME CONCERNS ON
TEMPS AS CLOUDS COULD HOLD STRONG WITH NO BREAKS AND KEEP TEMPS
LOWER.

SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SW. WILL ALSO SEE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN
LOW.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FROM RECENT
TRENDS...BRINGING WARMER AIR QUICKLY BACK TO THE REGION. THE GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT FORECAST AND THE
GFS...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE WARMER EC SOLUTION GETS ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
AND BECOME VARIABLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 211132
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR
THE FORECAST. UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH
CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN THE RING OF FIRE BETWEEN
FEATURES. ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DISTURBANCE ON
SATELLITE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWERS TO END. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HIGHS TODAY AROUND 90 OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. TONIGHT SLIGHT
CHANCES RETAINED FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
NO MAJOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE...HOWEVER DIFFERENCE DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WITH RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP THE PACIFIC MONSOON FLOW WITH POPS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME CONCERNS ON
TEMPS AS CLOUDS COULD HOLD STRONG WITH NO BREAKS AND KEEP TEMPS
LOWER.

SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SW. WILL ALSO SEE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN
LOW.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FROM RECENT
TRENDS...BRINGING WARMER AIR QUICKLY BACK TO THE REGION. THE GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT FORECAST AND THE
GFS...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE WARMER EC SOLUTION GETS ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER KOGA ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF KLBF. NORTHWEST WIND WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO NORTHEAST TODAY BUT WILL STAY GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 211132
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
632 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR
THE FORECAST. UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH
CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN THE RING OF FIRE BETWEEN
FEATURES. ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DISTURBANCE ON
SATELLITE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWERS TO END. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HIGHS TODAY AROUND 90 OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. TONIGHT SLIGHT
CHANCES RETAINED FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
NO MAJOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE...HOWEVER DIFFERENCE DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WITH RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP THE PACIFIC MONSOON FLOW WITH POPS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME CONCERNS ON
TEMPS AS CLOUDS COULD HOLD STRONG WITH NO BREAKS AND KEEP TEMPS
LOWER.

SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SW. WILL ALSO SEE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN
LOW.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FROM RECENT
TRENDS...BRINGING WARMER AIR QUICKLY BACK TO THE REGION. THE GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT FORECAST AND THE
GFS...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE WARMER EC SOLUTION GETS ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER KOGA ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF KLBF. NORTHWEST WIND WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO NORTHEAST TODAY BUT WILL STAY GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 210857
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR
THE FORECAST. UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH
CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN THE RING OF FIRE BETWEEN
FEATURES. ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DISTURBANCE ON
SATELLITE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWERS TO END. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HIGHS TODAY AROUND 90 OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. TONIGHT SLIGHT
CHANCES RETAINED FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
NO MAJOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE...HOWEVER DIFFERENCE DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WITH RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP THE PACIFIC MONSOON FLOW WITH POPS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME CONCERNS ON
TEMPS AS CLOUDS COULD HOLD STRONG WITH NO BREAKS AND KEEP TEMPS
LOWER.

SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SW. WILL ALSO SEE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN
LOW.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FROM RECENT
TRENDS...BRINGING WARMER AIR QUICKLY BACK TO THE REGION. THE GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT FORECAST AND THE
GFS...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE WARMER EC SOLUTION GETS ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING
CONVECTION COULD LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT EXITING BY 12Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY CAUSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN EXCEPT
THE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO POPS ARE ISOLATED LATE THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND
ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






000
FXUS63 KLBF 210857
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN NEAR TERM AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR
THE FORECAST. UPPER HIGH PARKED OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WITH
CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TROUGH THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. WESTERN NEBRASKA CONTINUES IN THE RING OF FIRE BETWEEN
FEATURES. ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING LOOKS TO LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE DISTURBANCE ON
SATELLITE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWERS TO END. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND WEAK WAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST. HIGHS TODAY AROUND 90 OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. TONIGHT SLIGHT
CHANCES RETAINED FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
NO MAJOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S OVER NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE...HOWEVER DIFFERENCE DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WITH RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A TROUGH DEEPEN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP THE PACIFIC MONSOON FLOW WITH POPS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME CONCERNS ON
TEMPS AS CLOUDS COULD HOLD STRONG WITH NO BREAKS AND KEEP TEMPS
LOWER.

SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PUSH ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GENERALLY
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE SW. WILL ALSO SEE LOW CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN
LOW.

MODELS THEN DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED FROM RECENT
TRENDS...BRINGING WARMER AIR QUICKLY BACK TO THE REGION. THE GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT FORECAST AND THE
GFS...AND WAIT TO SEE IF THE WARMER EC SOLUTION GETS ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING
CONVECTION COULD LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT EXITING BY 12Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY CAUSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN EXCEPT
THE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO POPS ARE ISOLATED LATE THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND
ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 210432 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN LOTS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR SLOWLY...AND ARE
NOW ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD FEEL IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT AND PRIMARY FORCING REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL LOWER POPS A BIT. AS
MENTIONED...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED CIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN SD TO WESTERN KS...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND COULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. YET ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO LOTS OF AREAS TO WATCH...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE
SCENARIO MATERIALIZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
OVERALL SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUITE WEATHER DAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA  AS THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. KEPT THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS SEEM TO
FAVOR STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HELD OFF HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY 00Z SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 150 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED WHEN NEXT TROF IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG LIFT AS MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN OMEGA
VALUES AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
CREATING A FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN PLACE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING
CONVECTION COULD LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT EXITING BY 12Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY CAUSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN EXCEPT
THE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO POPS ARE ISOLATED LATE THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND
ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 210432 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN LOTS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR SLOWLY...AND ARE
NOW ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD FEEL IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT AND PRIMARY FORCING REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL LOWER POPS A BIT. AS
MENTIONED...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED CIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN SD TO WESTERN KS...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND COULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. YET ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO LOTS OF AREAS TO WATCH...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE
SCENARIO MATERIALIZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
OVERALL SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUITE WEATHER DAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA  AS THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. KEPT THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS SEEM TO
FAVOR STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HELD OFF HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY 00Z SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 150 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED WHEN NEXT TROF IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG LIFT AS MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN OMEGA
VALUES AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
CREATING A FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN PLACE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

INDICATIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST THE ONGOING
CONVECTION COULD LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT EXITING BY 12Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WOULD LIKELY CAUSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN EXCEPT
THE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SO POPS ARE ISOLATED LATE THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND
ALONG OR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 202325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN LOTS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR SLOWLY...AND ARE
NOW ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD FEEL IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT AND PRIMARY FORCING REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL LOWER POPS A BIT. AS
MENTIONED...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED CIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN SD TO WESTERN KS...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND COULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. YET ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO LOTS OF AREAS TO WATCH...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE
SCENARIO MATERIALIZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
OVERALL SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUITE WEATHER DAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA  AS THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. KEPT THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS SEEM TO
FAVOR STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HELD OFF HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY 00Z SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 150 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED WHEN NEXT TROF IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG LIFT AS MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN OMEGA
VALUES AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
CREATING A FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN PLACE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR KSNY-KOGA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 03Z
OR SOONER WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TSTM ACTIVITY FROM KBBW-KGLD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS LASTING UNTIL 06Z OR
LATER BUT REMAIN ISOLATED. THE STORMS SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
A KGLD-KBBW-KONL LINE MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...CDC


















000
FXUS63 KLBF 202325 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN LOTS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR SLOWLY...AND ARE
NOW ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD FEEL IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT AND PRIMARY FORCING REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL LOWER POPS A BIT. AS
MENTIONED...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED CIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN SD TO WESTERN KS...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND COULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. YET ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO LOTS OF AREAS TO WATCH...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE
SCENARIO MATERIALIZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
OVERALL SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUITE WEATHER DAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA  AS THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. KEPT THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS SEEM TO
FAVOR STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HELD OFF HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY 00Z SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 150 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED WHEN NEXT TROF IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG LIFT AS MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN OMEGA
VALUES AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
CREATING A FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN PLACE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR KSNY-KOGA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 03Z
OR SOONER WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TSTM ACTIVITY FROM KBBW-KGLD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...PERHAPS LASTING UNTIL 06Z OR
LATER BUT REMAIN ISOLATED. THE STORMS SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
A KGLD-KBBW-KONL LINE MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS EAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...CDC

















000
FXUS63 KLBF 202057
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN LOTS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR SLOWLY...AND ARE
NOW ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD FEEL IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT AND PRIMARY FORCING REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL LOWER POPS A BIT. AS
MENTIONED...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED CIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN SD TO WESTERN KS...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND COULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. YET ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO LOTS OF AREAS TO WATCH...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE
SCENARIO MATERIALIZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
OVERALL SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUITE WEATHER DAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA  AS THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. KEPT THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS SEEM TO
FAVOR STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HELD OFF HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY 00Z SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 150 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED WHEN NEXT TROF IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG LIFT AS MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN OMEGA
VALUES AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
CREATING A FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN PLACE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COULD MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL TAF FORECASTS...AS COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KLBF 202057
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST TONIGHT. THERE HAVE BEEN LOTS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HANGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR SLOWLY...AND ARE
NOW ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD FEEL IN TERMS OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT AND PRIMARY FORCING REMAINS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
AREA. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL LOWER POPS A BIT. AS
MENTIONED...INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH LITTLE SURFACE BASED CIN
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN SD TO WESTERN KS...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT THOUGH THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND COULD ALSO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. YET ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING...AS HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO
INDICATE STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. SO LOTS OF AREAS TO WATCH...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE
SCENARIO MATERIALIZING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
OVERALL SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUITE WEATHER DAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN THIS WEEKEND WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA  AS THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER DUE TO LACK
OF MOISTURE. KEPT THE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS SEEM TO
FAVOR STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. HELD OFF HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BY 00Z SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 150 PERCENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PUSHING THE RIDGE EASTWARD BRINGING
COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH IT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED WHEN NEXT TROF IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG LIFT AS MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN OMEGA
VALUES AND AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
CREATING A FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE IN PLACE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COULD MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL TAF FORECASTS...AS COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...TAYLOR









000
FXUS63 KLBF 201820
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
120 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND BUILDUPS THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THEM THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90. UPPER WAVE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
LATEST RUNS. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TROUGH...DRY LINE PUSHES EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE. BEST DYNAMICS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AINSWORTH
TO ONEILL WHERE MUCAPES AROUND 3000J/KG. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KTS
AND FAVORABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALMOST NO CAP IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VELOCITY SIGNATURES ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TONIGHT
50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AUGUST DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISS RVR VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGHER COVER TO
BE ACROSS N CENTRAL. CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST CAPE VALUES NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME
SUPPORT ONTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PERIODIC POPS WITH DECENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COULD MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL TAF FORECASTS...AS COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR







000
FXUS63 KLBF 201820
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
120 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND BUILDUPS THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THEM THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90. UPPER WAVE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
LATEST RUNS. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TROUGH...DRY LINE PUSHES EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE. BEST DYNAMICS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AINSWORTH
TO ONEILL WHERE MUCAPES AROUND 3000J/KG. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KTS
AND FAVORABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALMOST NO CAP IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VELOCITY SIGNATURES ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TONIGHT
50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AUGUST DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISS RVR VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGHER COVER TO
BE ACROSS N CENTRAL. CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST CAPE VALUES NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME
SUPPORT ONTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PERIODIC POPS WITH DECENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND COULD MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WILL NOT INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL TAF FORECASTS...AS COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KLBF 201206 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
706 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND BUILDUPS THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THEM THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90. UPPER WAVE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
LATEST RUNS. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TROUGH...DRY LINE PUSHES EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE. BEST DYNAMICS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AINSWORTH
TO ONEILL WHERE MUCAPES AROUND 3000J/KG. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KTS
AND FAVORABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALMOST NO CAP IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VELOCITY SIGNATURES ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TONIGHT
50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AUGUST DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISS RVR VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGHER COVER TO
BE ACROSS N CENTRAL. CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST CAPE VALUES NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME
SUPPORT ONTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PERIODIC POPS WITH DECENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME BETTER CONFIDENCE IS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 201206 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
706 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS AND BUILDUPS THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THEM THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90. UPPER WAVE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
LATEST RUNS. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TROUGH...DRY LINE PUSHES EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE. BEST DYNAMICS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AINSWORTH
TO ONEILL WHERE MUCAPES AROUND 3000J/KG. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KTS
AND FAVORABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALMOST NO CAP IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VELOCITY SIGNATURES ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TONIGHT
50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AUGUST DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISS RVR VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGHER COVER TO
BE ACROSS N CENTRAL. CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST CAPE VALUES NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME
SUPPORT ONTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PERIODIC POPS WITH DECENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME BETTER CONFIDENCE IS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT KLBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 201148 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
648 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THEM THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90. UPPER WAVE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
LATEST RUNS. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TROUGH...DRY LINE PUSHES EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE. BEST DYNAMICS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AINSWORTH
TO ONEILL WHERE MUCAPES AROUND 3000J/KG. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KTS
AND FAVORABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALMOST NO CAP IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VELOCITY SIGNATURES ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TONIGHT
50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AUGUST DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISS RVR VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGHER COVER TO
BE ACROSS N CENTRAL. CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST CAPE VALUES NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME
SUPPORT ONTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PERIODIC POPS WITH DECENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME BETTER CONFIDENCE IS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 201148 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
648 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THEM THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90. UPPER WAVE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
LATEST RUNS. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TROUGH...DRY LINE PUSHES EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE. BEST DYNAMICS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AINSWORTH
TO ONEILL WHERE MUCAPES AROUND 3000J/KG. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KTS
AND FAVORABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALMOST NO CAP IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VELOCITY SIGNATURES ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TONIGHT
50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AUGUST DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISS RVR VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGHER COVER TO
BE ACROSS N CENTRAL. CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST CAPE VALUES NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME
SUPPORT ONTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PERIODIC POPS WITH DECENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME BETTER CONFIDENCE IS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 200845
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THEM THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90. UPPER WAVE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
LATEST RUNS. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TROUGH...DRY LINE PUSHES EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE. BEST DYNAMICS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AINSWORTH
TO ONEILL WHERE MUCAPES AROUND 3000J/KG. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KTS
AND FAVORABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALMOST NO CAP IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VELOCITY SIGNATURES ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TONIGHT
50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AUGUST DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISS RVR VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGHER COVER TO
BE ACROSS N CENTRAL. CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST CAPE VALUES NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME
SUPPORT ONTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PERIODIC POPS WITH DECENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM  CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLBF AFTER 23Z/21ST AND INCLUDED IN A PROB30 FOR 5SM TSRA BKN070CB.
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN EAST OF KVTN TERMINAL AND DID NOT
INCLUDE THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 200845
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THEM THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WILL LIFT NORTH AS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 90. UPPER WAVE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
LATEST RUNS. AS THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TROUGH...DRY LINE PUSHES EAST EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG
THIS FEATURE. BEST DYNAMICS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM AINSWORTH
TO ONEILL WHERE MUCAPES AROUND 3000J/KG. BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KTS
AND FAVORABLE TURNING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALMOST NO CAP IN THIS VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VELOCITY SIGNATURES ALONG THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST AND LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOWS TONIGHT
50S WEST AND 60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AUGUST DAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISS RVR VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S. A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL...GENERALLY EXPECT THE HIGHER COVER TO
BE ACROSS N CENTRAL. CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. FURTHER WEST CAPE VALUES NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AND WILL KEEP POPS LOWER.

FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW DIGS ACROSS THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE DOES SHIFT EAST...LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SEND SOME
SUPPORT ONTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EASTWARD. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE 70S. BOTH DAYS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

NEXT WEEK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROMOTE
PERIODIC POPS WITH DECENT MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM  CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLBF AFTER 23Z/21ST AND INCLUDED IN A PROB30 FOR 5SM TSRA BKN070CB.
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN EAST OF KVTN TERMINAL AND DID NOT
INCLUDE THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 200602 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
102 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SWRN
NEBR INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THIS EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
SCOTTSBLUFF THROUGH FORT MORGAN AND LAST CHANCE COLORADO. THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE THIS TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE INTO WRN NEBR THIS EVENING. RECENT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT NOW IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DRIFT EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...WITH QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF TOWERING
CUMULUS FROM CHEYENNE DOWN THROUGH THE DENVER METRO. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KTS THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY
HELP SUPPORT STORMS AS THEY TRACK EAST. NOT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AND DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT...NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
HOW FAR EAST STORMS WILL MAKE IT. LATER TONIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM MODEL IS THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE NMM...ARW AND GEM REGIONAL HOLD THE TROUGH BACK
FROM ROUGHLY AINSWORTH TO IMPERIAL. DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP APPEARS SIMILAR TO
THE SUNDAY SEVERE EVENT...AND AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
GENERATE A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS INDICATE PROBABILITY/
COVERAGE OF 20-30 PERCENT IN THE SANDHILLS AND 30-40 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. SURFACE
BASED CAPE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS PRETTY HIGH AT
3500-4000J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) AROUND 30KT. WITH STORM MOTION
240-260 AT 15-25KT...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
110-200. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
FRIDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A COOL FRONT COMES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND THE PATTERN IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM  CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLBF AFTER 23Z/21ST AND INCLUDED IN A PROB30 FOR 5SM TSRA BKN070CB.
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN EAST OF KVTN TERMINAL AND DID NOT
INCLUDE THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 200602 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
102 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SWRN
NEBR INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THIS EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
SCOTTSBLUFF THROUGH FORT MORGAN AND LAST CHANCE COLORADO. THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE THIS TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE INTO WRN NEBR THIS EVENING. RECENT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT NOW IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DRIFT EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...WITH QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF TOWERING
CUMULUS FROM CHEYENNE DOWN THROUGH THE DENVER METRO. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KTS THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY
HELP SUPPORT STORMS AS THEY TRACK EAST. NOT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AND DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT...NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
HOW FAR EAST STORMS WILL MAKE IT. LATER TONIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM MODEL IS THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE NMM...ARW AND GEM REGIONAL HOLD THE TROUGH BACK
FROM ROUGHLY AINSWORTH TO IMPERIAL. DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP APPEARS SIMILAR TO
THE SUNDAY SEVERE EVENT...AND AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
GENERATE A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS INDICATE PROBABILITY/
COVERAGE OF 20-30 PERCENT IN THE SANDHILLS AND 30-40 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. SURFACE
BASED CAPE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS PRETTY HIGH AT
3500-4000J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) AROUND 30KT. WITH STORM MOTION
240-260 AT 15-25KT...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
110-200. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
FRIDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A COOL FRONT COMES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND THE PATTERN IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM  CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
KLBF AFTER 23Z/21ST AND INCLUDED IN A PROB30 FOR 5SM TSRA BKN070CB.
EXPECT TSRA TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN EAST OF KVTN TERMINAL AND DID NOT
INCLUDE THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...POWER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 192221 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
521 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SWRN
NEBR INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THIS EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
SCOTTSBLUFF THROUGH FORT MORGAN AND LAST CHANCE COLORADO. THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE THIS TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE INTO WRN NEBR THIS EVENING. RECENT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT NOW IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DRIFT EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...WITH QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF TOWERING
CUMULUS FROM CHEYENNE DOWN THROUGH THE DENVER METRO. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KTS THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY
HELP SUPPORT STORMS AS THEY TRACK EAST. NOT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AND DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT...NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
HOW FAR EAST STORMS WILL MAKE IT. LATER TONIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM MODEL IS THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE NMM...ARW AND GEM REGIONAL HOLD THE TROUGH BACK
FROM ROUGHLY AINSWORTH TO IMPERIAL. DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP APPEARS SIMILAR TO
THE SUNDAY SEVERE EVENT...AND AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
GENERATE A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS INDICATE PROBABILITY/
COVERAGE OF 20-30 PERCENT IN THE SANDHILLS AND 30-40 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. SURFACE
BASED CAPE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS PRETTY HIGH AT
3500-4000J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) AROUND 30KT. WITH STORM MOTION
240-260 AT 15-25KT...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
110-200. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
FRIDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A COOL FRONT COMES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND THE PATTERN IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE...NO MENTION IS WARRANTED IN
THE OFFICIAL TAF FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KLBF 192221 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
521 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SWRN
NEBR INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THIS EVENING PROGRESSES. LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
SCOTTSBLUFF THROUGH FORT MORGAN AND LAST CHANCE COLORADO. THE
LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATE THIS TO PUSH NORTHEAST AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE INTO WRN NEBR THIS EVENING. RECENT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT NOW IN SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE AREA...WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DRIFT EAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...WITH QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF TOWERING
CUMULUS FROM CHEYENNE DOWN THROUGH THE DENVER METRO. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KTS THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY
HELP SUPPORT STORMS AS THEY TRACK EAST. NOT EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE
WIDESPREAD...AND DUE TO THE RIDGING ALOFT...NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON
HOW FAR EAST STORMS WILL MAKE IT. LATER TONIGHT...DECENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM MODEL IS THE FARTHEST EAST WITH THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE NMM...ARW AND GEM REGIONAL HOLD THE TROUGH BACK
FROM ROUGHLY AINSWORTH TO IMPERIAL. DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SYNOPTIC SET UP APPEARS SIMILAR TO
THE SUNDAY SEVERE EVENT...AND AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
GENERATE A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS INDICATE PROBABILITY/
COVERAGE OF 20-30 PERCENT IN THE SANDHILLS AND 30-40 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. SURFACE
BASED CAPE IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS PRETTY HIGH AT
3500-4000J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) AROUND 30KT. WITH STORM MOTION
240-260 AT 15-25KT...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
110-200. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH WE
WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
FRIDAY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

FINALLY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A COOL FRONT COMES ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND THE PATTERN IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...AND SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE...NO MENTION IS WARRANTED IN
THE OFFICIAL TAF FORECAST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...TAYLOR









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