Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLBF 141129
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A MILD PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN
FA. AN AREA OF RECENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA HAS JUST
EXITED THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BEHIND THE
PACIFIC FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO NWRN WY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH MUCH MILDER AIR TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR 1C IN THE FAR NERN ZONES TO
NEAR 7C IN THE FAR SWRN ZONES. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FCST...EXCEPT UPPER 50S FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AND ADDED
A MENTION. PREVAILING WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS CONFINED
TO NCTRL NEBR WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS FCST LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S. PREVAILING
WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH THE PACIFIC AIR IN
PLACE. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND THE BETTER
LIFT WILL STAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE LONGWAVE WILL DAMPEN AND
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. EXPECT A VERY WARM
DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 15C TO 20C RANGE. LITTLE SNOW COVER BY THEN...AND NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM DAY.
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH 70 DEGREES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...BUT STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS. BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS
BY 18Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z/15TH. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER
00Z/15TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 140954
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A MILD PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN
FA. AN AREA OF RECENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA HAS JUST
EXITED THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BEHIND THE
PACIFIC FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO NWRN WY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH MUCH MILDER AIR TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR 1C IN THE FAR NERN ZONES TO
NEAR 7C IN THE FAR SWRN ZONES. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FCST...EXCEPT UPPER 50S FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AND ADDED
A MENTION. PREVAILING WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS CONFINED
TO NCTRL NEBR WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS FCST LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S. PREVAILING
WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH THE PACIFIC AIR IN
PLACE. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND THE BETTER
LIFT WILL STAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE LONGWAVE WILL DAMPEN AND
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. EXPECT A VERY WARM
DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 15C TO 20C RANGE. LITTLE SNOW COVER BY THEN...AND NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM DAY.
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH 70 DEGREES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...BUT STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WIND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR WITH FLIGHT
OPERATIONS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IN THE 1500-3000 FOOT AGL LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME 290-320 AT 35-45KT. THE STRUCTURE
OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THAT WIND FROM TRANSFERRING TO THE SURFACE IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WIND IN THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WILL BE 270-290 AT 12-16KT. THAT WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH THE WIND IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
LAYER 35-45KT.

CEILING WEST OF ANW-BBW WILL BE ABOVE THE VISUAL THRESHOLDS AND THE
REST OF CENTRAL AND THOSE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
BY 09Z. IN THE WEST...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 140954
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A MILD PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN
FA. AN AREA OF RECENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA HAS JUST
EXITED THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BEHIND THE
PACIFIC FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO NWRN WY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN SD AND THE NEBR PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH MUCH MILDER AIR TO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR 1C IN THE FAR NERN ZONES TO
NEAR 7C IN THE FAR SWRN ZONES. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED UP A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FCST...EXCEPT UPPER 50S FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AND ADDED
A MENTION. PREVAILING WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS CONFINED
TO NCTRL NEBR WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
REMAIN NEAR PREVIOUS FCST LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S. PREVAILING
WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH THE PACIFIC AIR IN
PLACE. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND THE BETTER
LIFT WILL STAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE LONGWAVE WILL DAMPEN AND
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. EXPECT A VERY WARM
DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 15C TO 20C RANGE. LITTLE SNOW COVER BY THEN...AND NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM DAY.
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE 60S AT ALL LOCATIONS...WITH 70 DEGREES
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...BUT STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WIND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR WITH FLIGHT
OPERATIONS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IN THE 1500-3000 FOOT AGL LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME 290-320 AT 35-45KT. THE STRUCTURE
OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THAT WIND FROM TRANSFERRING TO THE SURFACE IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WIND IN THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WILL BE 270-290 AT 12-16KT. THAT WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH THE WIND IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
LAYER 35-45KT.

CEILING WEST OF ANW-BBW WILL BE ABOVE THE VISUAL THRESHOLDS AND THE
REST OF CENTRAL AND THOSE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
BY 09Z. IN THE WEST...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 140512
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1112 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS HAD INDICATED. WE HAVE ISSUED AN
UPDATE TO REFLECT IT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONG WIND WILL
NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SANDHILLS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACCORDING TO RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEAVE AT
LEAST A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SHOWERS. ALSO...THERE
IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT COULD PRODUCE A FLASH OR SO OF
LIGHTNING BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGION-WIDE AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2
AS MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN
TO BEGIN WITH...SO INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F
AND RASN GE 35F EARLY SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH
SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ
LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE
WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WIND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR WITH FLIGHT
OPERATIONS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IN THE 1500-3000 FOOT AGL LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME 290-320 AT 35-45KT. THE STRUCTURE
OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THAT WIND FROM TRANSFERRING TO THE SURFACE IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WIND IN THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WILL BE 270-290 AT 12-16KT. THAT WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH THE WIND IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
LAYER 35-45KT.

CEILING WEST OF ANW-BBW WILL BE ABOVE THE VISUAL THRESHOLDS AND THE
REST OF CENTRAL AND THOSE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
BY 09Z. IN THE WEST...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 140512
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1112 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS HAD INDICATED. WE HAVE ISSUED AN
UPDATE TO REFLECT IT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONG WIND WILL
NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SANDHILLS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACCORDING TO RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEAVE AT
LEAST A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SHOWERS. ALSO...THERE
IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT COULD PRODUCE A FLASH OR SO OF
LIGHTNING BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGION-WIDE AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2
AS MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN
TO BEGIN WITH...SO INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F
AND RASN GE 35F EARLY SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH
SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ
LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE
WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WIND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR WITH FLIGHT
OPERATIONS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. WIND IN THE 1500-3000 FOOT AGL LEVEL
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME 290-320 AT 35-45KT. THE STRUCTURE
OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THAT WIND FROM TRANSFERRING TO THE SURFACE IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WIND IN THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...WILL BE 270-290 AT 12-16KT. THAT WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH THE WIND IN THE 1500-2000 FOOT
LAYER 35-45KT.

CEILING WEST OF ANW-BBW WILL BE ABOVE THE VISUAL THRESHOLDS AND THE
REST OF CENTRAL AND THOSE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
BY 09Z. IN THE WEST...CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 140211
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
811 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS HAD INDICATED. WE HAVE ISSUED AN
UPDATE TO REFLECT IT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONG WIND WILL
NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SANDHILLS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACCORDING TO RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEAVE AT
LEAST A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SHOWERS. ALSO...THERE
IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT COULD PRODUCE A FLASH OR SO OF
LIGHTNING BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGION-WIDE AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2
AS MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN
TO BEGIN WITH...SO INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F
AND RASN GE 35F EARLY SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH
SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ
LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE
WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

INCREASING CEILING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST VISUAL
METEOROLOGICAL IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 03Z AND IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 05Z. WIND ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 32040KT AT
1500-2000 FEET AGL. IN THE NORTH...WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND...AFTER SUBTRACTING FOR FRICTION...WILL BECOME 280-300
AT 14-18KT AND POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 22KT. IN THE SOUTHWEST...
PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THE SURFACE WIND
WILL PROBABLY BE 10KT OR LESS FROM 280-300 WITH 33040KT JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE...WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 140104
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACCORDING TO RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEAVE AT
LEAST A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SHOWERS. ALSO...THERE
IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT COULD PRODUCE A FLASH OR SO OF
LIGHTNING BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGION-WIDE AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2
AS MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN
TO BEGIN WITH...SO INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F
AND RASN GE 35F EARLY SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH
SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ
LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE
WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

INCREASING CEILING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST VISUAL
METEOROLOGICAL IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 03Z AND IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 05Z. WIND ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 32040KT AT
1500-2000 FEET AGL. IN THE NORTH...WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND...AFTER SUBTRACTING FOR FRICTION...WILL BECOME 280-300
AT 14-18KT AND POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 22KT. IN THE SOUTHWEST...
PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THE SURFACE WIND
WILL PROBABLY BE 10KT OR LESS FROM 280-300 WITH 33040KT JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE...WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 140104
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACCORDING TO RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEAVE AT
LEAST A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SHOWERS. ALSO...THERE
IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT COULD PRODUCE A FLASH OR SO OF
LIGHTNING BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGION-WIDE AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2
AS MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN
TO BEGIN WITH...SO INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F
AND RASN GE 35F EARLY SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH
SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ
LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE
WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

INCREASING CEILING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST VISUAL
METEOROLOGICAL IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 03Z AND IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 05Z. WIND ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 32040KT AT
1500-2000 FEET AGL. IN THE NORTH...WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND...AFTER SUBTRACTING FOR FRICTION...WILL BECOME 280-300
AT 14-18KT AND POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 22KT. IN THE SOUTHWEST...
PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THE SURFACE WIND
WILL PROBABLY BE 10KT OR LESS FROM 280-300 WITH 33040KT JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE...WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 140104
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACCORDING TO RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS...SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS THIS EVENING.
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEAVE AT
LEAST A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE SHOWERS. ALSO...THERE
IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT COULD PRODUCE A FLASH OR SO OF
LIGHTNING BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW. RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
SMALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGION-WIDE AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2
AS MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN
TO BEGIN WITH...SO INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F
AND RASN GE 35F EARLY SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH
SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ
LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE
WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

INCREASING CEILING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST VISUAL
METEOROLOGICAL IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 03Z AND IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 05Z. WIND ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 32040KT AT
1500-2000 FEET AGL. IN THE NORTH...WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND...AFTER SUBTRACTING FOR FRICTION...WILL BECOME 280-300
AT 14-18KT AND POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 22KT. IN THE SOUTHWEST...
PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THE SURFACE WIND
WILL PROBABLY BE 10KT OR LESS FROM 280-300 WITH 33040KT JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE...WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 132327
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGION-WIDE AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2
AS MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN
TO BEGIN WITH...SO INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F
AND RASN GE 35F EARLY SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH
SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ
LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE
WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

INCREASING CEILING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST VISUAL
METEOROLOGICAL IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 03Z AND IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 05Z. WIND ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 32040KT AT
1500-2000 FEET AGL. IN THE NORTH...WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND...AFTER SUBTRACTING FOR FRICTION...WILL BECOME 280-300
AT 14-18KT AND POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 22KT. IN THE SOUTHWEST...
PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THE SURFACE WIND
WILL PROBABLY BE 10KT OR LESS FROM 280-300 WITH 33040KT JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE...WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 132327
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREA-WIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGION-WIDE AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2
AS MID AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN
TO BEGIN WITH...SO INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F
AND RASN GE 35F EARLY SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW
AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH
SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ
LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR.
OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE
WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

INCREASING CEILING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST VISUAL
METEOROLOGICAL IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 03Z AND IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 05Z. WIND ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME 32040KT AT
1500-2000 FEET AGL. IN THE NORTH...WIND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND...AFTER SUBTRACTING FOR FRICTION...WILL BECOME 280-300
AT 14-18KT AND POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 22KT. IN THE SOUTHWEST...
PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THE SURFACE WIND
WILL PROBABLY BE 10KT OR LESS FROM 280-300 WITH 33040KT JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE LAYER. THEREFORE...WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN THE FORECAST FOR LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 132139
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING IS THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO...WITH CLOUD COVER... TEMPERATURES...
PRECIPITATION... AND WIND BEING ESPECIALLY INTER RELATED TONIGHT.
RATHER COMPLEX SITUATION WITH A SURFACE FRONT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...QUICK MOVING AND RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND THE 250HPA JET IN THE VICINITY. LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG
AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS
MORNING...WITH MIST/DRIZZLE ENDING BY 18Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE SURPASSED 30 KTS FAR NORTH...INCLUDING KVTN.

CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
SURFACE. AS OF 21Z...THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS JUST WEST OF NEB
HWY 61 WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING. MAINTAINED COVER
OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE.
INCREASED CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE.

WIND...SPEEDS SHOULD STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE FROPA
AND SHORTWAVE DRAGGING SOME 850HPA WINDS TOWARD THE SURFACE.
ECM...NAM...AND GFS INDICATING 850HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KTS...BUT WITH
A SFC INVERSION IN PLACE AREAWIDE AND PERSISTENT CLOUDS
EAST...NOT EXPECTING THE FULL FORCE. TRANSITION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AROUND 06Z.

TEMPS...LOOKING AT A NON DIURNAL TREND WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE AT 850HPA WITH TEMPS
RISING FROM -7C AT 18Z SAT TO 2C BY 12Z SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OCCUR EARLY WITH 20S CENTRAL NEB AND NEAR 30 ALONG/WEST OF
HWY 83. EARLY CLOUD BREAKS...MILDER 850HPA TEMPS...AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER...AND UPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR
SO DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED REASONS. DID TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY IN BOYD
COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.

PRECIP...FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS GOOD REGIONWIDE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AT 280K AND 290 IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. HOWEVER...THE BEST
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 2 AS MID AND LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMP
PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RAIN TO BEGIN WITH...SO
INTRODUCED -RA FOR AREAS WITH SFC TEMPS GE 37F AND RASN GE 35F EARLY
SAT EVENING. TRANSITIONED ALL PRECIP TO SNOW AFTER 06Z AS THE WARM
WEDGE DISAPPEARS. NAM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DECENT LIFT COLOCATED WITH
SATURATION NORTH OF KONL...ALONG WITH SOME FOLDED THETA E. INCREASED
QPF AS A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN HOLT
AND BOYD COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE DGZ LIES WELL ABOVE THE BEST
LIFT...WITH WILL CUT DOWN ON SLR. OVERALL...ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY
STAY UNDER ONE INCH AS THE WINDOW FOR BEST FORCING IS RATHER
SHORT...GENERALLY 03-09Z.

OTHER CONCERNS...SREF IS SHOWING A WEAK SIGNAL OF FOG ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 83. ALTHOUGH A
NON ZERO CHANCE OF FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BREEZY WINDS AND THE TIMING
OF MID/LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LOWER MY CONFIDENCE. LEFT MENTION OUT OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
ADDITION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

00Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.  THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
EXTENDED WILL BE TEMPERATURES...MORE SPECIFICALLY HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES GET MID-WEEK.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES.  THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXIT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS FIXED THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN TOP DOWN
SATURATION OCCURS WHILE OMEGA IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE ARE LARGELY
ABOVE 0C...SO THE PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE RAIN...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY /EVENING/...WILL GO WITH A RAIN AND/OR SNOW MIX. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY
SCOURS OUT AND OMEGA WANES WITH THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN...WITH SNOW CHANCES HOLDING OUT UNTIL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE.  ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH 24 HOURS LATER...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF
LIGHT QPF TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER THE BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN IS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST FOR NOW AND MONITOR. ALL IN ALL...PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED ARE SLIGHT AT BEST...WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF EXPECTED
WHERE PRECIP OCCURS.

A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THIS COMING WEEK...MAINLY DUE
TO STRONG WAA AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE WEST. H85
TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THURSDAY WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S ARE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW DURING THE THURSDAY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE FACT
WE EXPERIENCED IN SOME CASES NEAR RECORD SNOWFALL A LITTLE OVER A
WEEK AND A HALF AGO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS LARGE RANGE FIRE
GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THE MELTING SNOWPACK PLAYS
OUT...FUELS ARE CURED AND IT WOULDN/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO
PROMOTE LARGE FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
THE HEAVY SNOWS /ZONES 204 AND 208/.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND POINTS
WEST. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KVTN...KANW...AND KONL...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING...AS SPEEDS REMAIN AOA 12
KTS. LOW CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNIVELY
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SNIVELY





000
FXUS63 KLBF 131726
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT...EASTERN WY INTO NCTRL CO. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. WITH MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR RECIRCULATED INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES CONTRASTING FROM
15 AT ONEILL TO 29 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
REPORTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING
THIS MORNING. A CALL THE THE OGALLALA SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING SLICK STREET WHERE UNTREATED.
A CURRENT LACK OF ANY MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO NUDGE EAST TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF AN AINSWORTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE. IN
ADDITION...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR IS RECIRCULATED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO JUST
EAST OF HWY 61. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGHS HELD TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WERE KEPT
VERY NEAR PREVIOUS HIGHS AS MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FCST
HIGHS. SINCE THE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY PUSHED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE
OF COLORADO...MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN IDAHO WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MT AND NERN WY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW EASTWARD IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NEBR/SD BORDER...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM BRING A
PIECE OF THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORECAST IS FOR CHANCE POPS OF
30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A VALENTINE THROUGH AINSWORTH AND
ONEILL LINE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...EVEN FOR COUNTIES FURTHEST EAST SUCH AS
BOYD...HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING FROM THE SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT WITHIN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR TO THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE DISLODGED AND REPLACED WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN HIGHS SATURDAY IN PLACES LIKE ONEILL AND EWING.

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AREA
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME
WET SNOW MIXING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND
WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 OR 30 POP.

AS MENTIONED A VERY MILD WEEK IN STORE...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY
TO BE THURSDAY. EXPECT A PLUME OF VERY MILD AIR ALOFT TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. H850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 20C MAY SUPPORT HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT AND FORECAST MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS MENTIONED THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...SO THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE THING WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THIS FRONT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
INDICATES H850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND
APPEARS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT WE EXPERIENCED
LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND POINTS
WEST. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KVTN...KANW...AND KONL...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING...AS SPEEDS REMAIN AOA 12
KTS. LOW CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SNIVELY





000
FXUS63 KLBF 131726
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT...EASTERN WY INTO NCTRL CO. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. WITH MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR RECIRCULATED INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES CONTRASTING FROM
15 AT ONEILL TO 29 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
REPORTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING
THIS MORNING. A CALL THE THE OGALLALA SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING SLICK STREET WHERE UNTREATED.
A CURRENT LACK OF ANY MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO NUDGE EAST TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF AN AINSWORTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE. IN
ADDITION...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR IS RECIRCULATED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO JUST
EAST OF HWY 61. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGHS HELD TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WERE KEPT
VERY NEAR PREVIOUS HIGHS AS MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FCST
HIGHS. SINCE THE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY PUSHED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE
OF COLORADO...MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN IDAHO WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MT AND NERN WY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW EASTWARD IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NEBR/SD BORDER...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM BRING A
PIECE OF THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORECAST IS FOR CHANCE POPS OF
30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A VALENTINE THROUGH AINSWORTH AND
ONEILL LINE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...EVEN FOR COUNTIES FURTHEST EAST SUCH AS
BOYD...HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING FROM THE SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT WITHIN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR TO THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE DISLODGED AND REPLACED WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN HIGHS SATURDAY IN PLACES LIKE ONEILL AND EWING.

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AREA
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME
WET SNOW MIXING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND
WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 OR 30 POP.

AS MENTIONED A VERY MILD WEEK IN STORE...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY
TO BE THURSDAY. EXPECT A PLUME OF VERY MILD AIR ALOFT TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. H850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 20C MAY SUPPORT HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT AND FORECAST MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS MENTIONED THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...SO THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE THING WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THIS FRONT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
INDICATES H850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND
APPEARS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT WE EXPERIENCED
LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND POINTS
WEST. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KVTN...KANW...AND KONL...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING...AS SPEEDS REMAIN AOA 12
KTS. LOW CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SNIVELY





000
FXUS63 KLBF 131726
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT...EASTERN WY INTO NCTRL CO. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. WITH MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR RECIRCULATED INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES CONTRASTING FROM
15 AT ONEILL TO 29 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
REPORTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING
THIS MORNING. A CALL THE THE OGALLALA SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING SLICK STREET WHERE UNTREATED.
A CURRENT LACK OF ANY MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO NUDGE EAST TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF AN AINSWORTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE. IN
ADDITION...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR IS RECIRCULATED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO JUST
EAST OF HWY 61. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGHS HELD TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WERE KEPT
VERY NEAR PREVIOUS HIGHS AS MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FCST
HIGHS. SINCE THE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY PUSHED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE
OF COLORADO...MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN IDAHO WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MT AND NERN WY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW EASTWARD IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NEBR/SD BORDER...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM BRING A
PIECE OF THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORECAST IS FOR CHANCE POPS OF
30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A VALENTINE THROUGH AINSWORTH AND
ONEILL LINE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...EVEN FOR COUNTIES FURTHEST EAST SUCH AS
BOYD...HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING FROM THE SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT WITHIN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR TO THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE DISLODGED AND REPLACED WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN HIGHS SATURDAY IN PLACES LIKE ONEILL AND EWING.

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AREA
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME
WET SNOW MIXING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND
WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 OR 30 POP.

AS MENTIONED A VERY MILD WEEK IN STORE...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY
TO BE THURSDAY. EXPECT A PLUME OF VERY MILD AIR ALOFT TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. H850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 20C MAY SUPPORT HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT AND FORECAST MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS MENTIONED THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...SO THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE THING WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THIS FRONT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
INDICATES H850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND
APPEARS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT WE EXPERIENCED
LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KLBF TO KVTN AND POINTS
WEST. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING KVTN...KANW...AND KONL...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING...AS SPEEDS REMAIN AOA 12
KTS. LOW CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SNIVELY




000
FXUS63 KLBF 131254
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
654 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT...EASTERN WY INTO NCTRL CO. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. WITH MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR RECIRCULATED INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES CONTRASTING FROM
15 AT ONEILL TO 29 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
REPORTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING
THIS MORNING. A CALL THE THE OGALLALA SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING SLICK STREET WHERE UNTREATED.
A CURRENT LACK OF ANY MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO NUDGE EAST TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF AN AINSWORTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE. IN
ADDITION...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR IS RECIRCULATED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO JUST
EAST OF HWY 61. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGHS HELD TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WERE KEPT
VERY NEAR PREVIOUS HIGHS AS MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FCST
HIGHS. SINCE THE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY PUSHED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE
OF COLORADO...MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN IDAHO WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MT AND NERN WY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW EASTWARD IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NEBR/SD BORDER...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM BRING A
PIECE OF THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORECAST IS FOR CHANCE POPS OF
30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A VALENTINE THROUGH AINSWORTH AND
ONEILL LINE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...EVEN FOR COUNTIES FURTHEST EAST SUCH AS
BOYD...HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING FROM THE SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT WITHIN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR TO THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE DISLODGED AND REPLACED WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN HIGHS SATURDAY IN PLACES LIKE ONEILL AND EWING.

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AREA
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME
WET SNOW MIXING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND
WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 OR 30 POP.

AS MENTIONED A VERY MILD WEEK IN STORE...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY
TO BE THURSDAY. EXPECT A PLUME OF VERY MILD AIR ALOFT TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. H850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 20C MAY SUPPORT HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT AND FORECAST MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS MENTIONED THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...SO THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE THING WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THIS FRONT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
INDICATES H850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND
APPEARS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT WE EXPERIENCED
LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
MAINLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INCLUDING OGA
AND TIF. IN ADDITION..IFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVF
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INCLUDING
VTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 131254
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
654 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT...EASTERN WY INTO NCTRL CO. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. WITH MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR RECIRCULATED INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES CONTRASTING FROM
15 AT ONEILL TO 29 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
REPORTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING
THIS MORNING. A CALL THE THE OGALLALA SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING SLICK STREET WHERE UNTREATED.
A CURRENT LACK OF ANY MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO NUDGE EAST TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF AN AINSWORTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE. IN
ADDITION...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR IS RECIRCULATED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO JUST
EAST OF HWY 61. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGHS HELD TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WERE KEPT
VERY NEAR PREVIOUS HIGHS AS MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FCST
HIGHS. SINCE THE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY PUSHED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE
OF COLORADO...MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN IDAHO WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MT AND NERN WY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW EASTWARD IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NEBR/SD BORDER...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM BRING A
PIECE OF THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORECAST IS FOR CHANCE POPS OF
30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A VALENTINE THROUGH AINSWORTH AND
ONEILL LINE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...EVEN FOR COUNTIES FURTHEST EAST SUCH AS
BOYD...HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING FROM THE SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT WITHIN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR TO THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE DISLODGED AND REPLACED WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN HIGHS SATURDAY IN PLACES LIKE ONEILL AND EWING.

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AREA
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME
WET SNOW MIXING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND
WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 OR 30 POP.

AS MENTIONED A VERY MILD WEEK IN STORE...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY
TO BE THURSDAY. EXPECT A PLUME OF VERY MILD AIR ALOFT TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. H850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 20C MAY SUPPORT HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT AND FORECAST MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS MENTIONED THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...SO THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE THING WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THIS FRONT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
INDICATES H850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND
APPEARS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT WE EXPERIENCED
LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
MAINLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INCLUDING OGA
AND TIF. IN ADDITION..IFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVF
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INCLUDING
VTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG




000
FXUS63 KLBF 131254
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
654 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT...EASTERN WY INTO NCTRL CO. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. WITH MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR RECIRCULATED INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES CONTRASTING FROM
15 AT ONEILL TO 29 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
REPORTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING
THIS MORNING. A CALL THE THE OGALLALA SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING SLICK STREET WHERE UNTREATED.
A CURRENT LACK OF ANY MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO NUDGE EAST TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF AN AINSWORTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE. IN
ADDITION...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR IS RECIRCULATED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO JUST
EAST OF HWY 61. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGHS HELD TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WERE KEPT
VERY NEAR PREVIOUS HIGHS AS MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FCST
HIGHS. SINCE THE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY PUSHED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE
OF COLORADO...MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN IDAHO WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MT AND NERN WY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW EASTWARD IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NEBR/SD BORDER...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM BRING A
PIECE OF THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORECAST IS FOR CHANCE POPS OF
30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A VALENTINE THROUGH AINSWORTH AND
ONEILL LINE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...EVEN FOR COUNTIES FURTHEST EAST SUCH AS
BOYD...HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING FROM THE SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT WITHIN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR TO THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE DISLODGED AND REPLACED WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN HIGHS SATURDAY IN PLACES LIKE ONEILL AND EWING.

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AREA
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME
WET SNOW MIXING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND
WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 OR 30 POP.

AS MENTIONED A VERY MILD WEEK IN STORE...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY
TO BE THURSDAY. EXPECT A PLUME OF VERY MILD AIR ALOFT TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. H850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 20C MAY SUPPORT HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT AND FORECAST MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS MENTIONED THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...SO THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE THING WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THIS FRONT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
INDICATES H850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND
APPEARS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT WE EXPERIENCED
LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
MAINLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS INCLUDING OGA
AND TIF. IN ADDITION..IFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVF
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT MAY
BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INCLUDING
VTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 130956
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO IOWA WITH
LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MT...EASTERN WY INTO NCTRL CO. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. WITH MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR RECIRCULATED INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES CONTRASTING FROM
15 AT ONEILL TO 29 AT OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SOME FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
REPORTED FROM THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUING
THIS MORNING. A CALL THE THE OGALLALA SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT
WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING SLICK STREET WHERE UNTREATED.
A CURRENT LACK OF ANY MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FA ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO NUDGE EAST TO
KEEP THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF AN AINSWORTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW LINE. IN
ADDITION...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COLD AS MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR IS RECIRCULATED INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE TO JUST
EAST OF HWY 61. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES. FURTHER
EAST...HIGHS HELD TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS WERE KEPT
VERY NEAR PREVIOUS HIGHS AS MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FCST
HIGHS. SINCE THE STRATUS IS CURRENTLY PUSHED UP TO THE FRONT RANGE
OF COLORADO...MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN IDAHO WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN MT AND NERN WY BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW EASTWARD IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LIKELY POPS TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE NEBR/SD BORDER...MODELS SUCH AS THE 06Z NAM BRING A
PIECE OF THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCTRL NEBR. THIS SCENARIO COULD
RESULT IN BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. FORECAST IS FOR CHANCE POPS OF
30-40 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A VALENTINE THROUGH AINSWORTH AND
ONEILL LINE. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS A
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
ACTUALLY RISE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...EVEN FOR COUNTIES FURTHEST EAST SUCH AS
BOYD...HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT THIS EVENING FROM THE SERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT WITHIN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL ACTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR TO THE AREA...AS THE ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE DISLODGED AND REPLACED WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN HIGHS SATURDAY IN PLACES LIKE ONEILL AND EWING.

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF QUICK
MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. AREA
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME
WET SNOW MIXING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT AND
WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 OR 30 POP.

AS MENTIONED A VERY MILD WEEK IN STORE...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY
TO BE THURSDAY. EXPECT A PLUME OF VERY MILD AIR ALOFT TO ADVECT
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. H850MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C TO 20C MAY SUPPORT HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS POINT AND FORECAST MID 60S...WHICH IS STILL WAY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS MENTIONED THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT IS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...SO THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BEHIND THE FRONT. ONE THING WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WITH THIS FRONT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF
INDICATES H850MB WINDS OVER 50 KTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND
APPEARS TO BE A SIMILAR SET UP TO THE HIGH WIND EVENT WE EXPERIENCED
LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE IFR/LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS SWRN NEB SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH WRN NEB
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING WITH LIFR POSSIBLE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 130515 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WAS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING...TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A PLUME OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INDICATED FROM THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS IN THE 280-285K LAYER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LIFT IS
WEAK AND NOT IN A THICK LAYER IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE LIFT EXTENDS TO NEAR 500MB
IN THE 290-305K LAYER AND INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THUS FAVORING LIGHT SNOW. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES IN THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHWEST BUT THE LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MID TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE MIDTERM...THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT MID LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOME WEAK LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SRN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NRN NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
WERE RETAINED ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAY SPRINGS TO EWING. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. AFTER MAINLY DRY CONDS ON
SUNDAY...A JET STREAK AND SECONDARY MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THESE LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH FAR SWRN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET STREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED GIVEN THE EXITING SYSTEM
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF/S MINIMAL. ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...FORCING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR PCPN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. ATTM...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET.
HOWEVER...WEAK LIFT IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH MONDAY EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL
RAIN...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY FURTHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VERY WARM AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THIS
MORNING AND ARE HINTING AT 60S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
TREND TEMPS HIGHER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECM AND MEX GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS
FOR TEMPS AFTER MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK BEGIN TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO INCREASING HIGHS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
FWIW...H85 TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PEAK OUT AT AROUND 16 TO 18C
ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA PER THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. IF THIS
VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE HIGHS NEXT THURSDAY APPROACHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE IFR/LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS SWRN NEB SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH WRN NEB
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING WITH LIFR POSSIBLE ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 122334 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
534 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WAS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING...TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A PLUME OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INDICATED FROM THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS IN THE 280-285K LAYER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LIFT IS
WEAK AND NOT IN A THICK LAYER IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE LIFT EXTENDS TO NEAR 500MB
IN THE 290-305K LAYER AND INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THUS FAVORING LIGHT SNOW. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES IN THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHWEST BUT THE LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MID TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE MIDTERM...THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT MID LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOME WEAK LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SRN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NRN NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
WERE RETAINED ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAY SPRINGS TO EWING. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. AFTER MAINLY DRY CONDS ON
SUNDAY...A JET STREAK AND SECONDARY MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THESE LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH FAR SWRN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET STREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED GIVEN THE EXITING SYSTEM
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF/S MINIMAL. ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...FORCING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR PCPN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. ATTM...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET.
HOWEVER...WEAK LIFT IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH MONDAY EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL
RAIN...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY FURTHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VERY WARM AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THIS
MORNING AND ARE HINTING AT 60S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
TREND TEMPS HIGHER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECM AND MEX GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS
FOR TEMPS AFTER MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK BEGIN TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO INCREASING HIGHS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
FWIW...H85 TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PEAK OUT AT AROUND 16 TO 18C
ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA PER THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. IF THIS
VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE HIGHS NEXT THURSDAY APPROACHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CIGS ACROSS NCNTL NEB SHOULD FILL IN AND BECOME IFR IN LIGHT-
FZDZSN AS UPSLOPE WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE RAP MODEL APPEARED TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PCPN.

MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. LIGHT -FZDZSN IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SHARPENS UP ACROSS WRN NEB. THE GFS LOOKED
THE BEST IN THIS REGARD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 122334 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
534 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WAS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING...TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A PLUME OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INDICATED FROM THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS IN THE 280-285K LAYER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LIFT IS
WEAK AND NOT IN A THICK LAYER IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE LIFT EXTENDS TO NEAR 500MB
IN THE 290-305K LAYER AND INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THUS FAVORING LIGHT SNOW. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES IN THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHWEST BUT THE LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MID TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE MIDTERM...THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT MID LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOME WEAK LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SRN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NRN NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
WERE RETAINED ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAY SPRINGS TO EWING. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. AFTER MAINLY DRY CONDS ON
SUNDAY...A JET STREAK AND SECONDARY MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THESE LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH FAR SWRN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET STREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED GIVEN THE EXITING SYSTEM
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF/S MINIMAL. ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...FORCING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR PCPN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. ATTM...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET.
HOWEVER...WEAK LIFT IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH MONDAY EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL
RAIN...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY FURTHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VERY WARM AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THIS
MORNING AND ARE HINTING AT 60S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
TREND TEMPS HIGHER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECM AND MEX GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS
FOR TEMPS AFTER MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK BEGIN TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO INCREASING HIGHS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
FWIW...H85 TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PEAK OUT AT AROUND 16 TO 18C
ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA PER THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. IF THIS
VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE HIGHS NEXT THURSDAY APPROACHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CIGS ACROSS NCNTL NEB SHOULD FILL IN AND BECOME IFR IN LIGHT-
FZDZSN AS UPSLOPE WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE RAP MODEL APPEARED TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PCPN.

MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. LIGHT -FZDZSN IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SHARPENS UP ACROSS WRN NEB. THE GFS LOOKED
THE BEST IN THIS REGARD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 122334 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
534 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WAS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING...TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A PLUME OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INDICATED FROM THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS IN THE 280-285K LAYER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LIFT IS
WEAK AND NOT IN A THICK LAYER IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE LIFT EXTENDS TO NEAR 500MB
IN THE 290-305K LAYER AND INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THUS FAVORING LIGHT SNOW. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES IN THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHWEST BUT THE LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MID TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE MIDTERM...THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT MID LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOME WEAK LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SRN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NRN NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
WERE RETAINED ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAY SPRINGS TO EWING. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. AFTER MAINLY DRY CONDS ON
SUNDAY...A JET STREAK AND SECONDARY MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THESE LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH FAR SWRN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET STREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED GIVEN THE EXITING SYSTEM
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF/S MINIMAL. ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...FORCING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR PCPN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. ATTM...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET.
HOWEVER...WEAK LIFT IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH MONDAY EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL
RAIN...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY FURTHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VERY WARM AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THIS
MORNING AND ARE HINTING AT 60S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
TREND TEMPS HIGHER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECM AND MEX GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS
FOR TEMPS AFTER MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK BEGIN TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO INCREASING HIGHS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
FWIW...H85 TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PEAK OUT AT AROUND 16 TO 18C
ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA PER THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. IF THIS
VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE HIGHS NEXT THURSDAY APPROACHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CIGS ACROSS NCNTL NEB SHOULD FILL IN AND BECOME IFR IN LIGHT-
FZDZSN AS UPSLOPE WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE RAP MODEL APPEARED TO
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PCPN.

MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. LIGHT -FZDZSN IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT SHARPENS UP ACROSS WRN NEB. THE GFS LOOKED
THE BEST IN THIS REGARD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 122130
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE WAS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING...TO
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A PLUME OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INDICATED FROM THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS IN THE 280-285K LAYER BY EARLY THIS
EVENING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE LIFT IS
WEAK AND NOT IN A THICK LAYER IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE LIFT EXTENDS TO NEAR 500MB
IN THE 290-305K LAYER AND INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THUS FAVORING LIGHT SNOW. BY
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHES IN THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHWEST BUT THE LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MID TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IN THE MIDTERM...THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENT MID LEVEL WAA WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOME WEAK LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SRN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NRN NEBRASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
WERE RETAINED ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAY SPRINGS TO EWING. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. AFTER MAINLY DRY CONDS ON
SUNDAY...A JET STREAK AND SECONDARY MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO NERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.
THESE LOCATIONS...ALONG WITH FAR SWRN NEBRASKA WILL BE IN THE
FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET STREAK SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED GIVEN THE EXITING SYSTEM
SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF/S MINIMAL. ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...FORCING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A FAVORABLE
SET UP FOR PCPN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. ATTM...THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET.
HOWEVER...WEAK LIFT IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH MONDAY EVENING TO SUPPORT ALL
RAIN...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S.

LONG RANGE...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO
THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY FURTHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH VERY WARM AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER THIS
MORNING AND ARE HINTING AT 60S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
TREND TEMPS HIGHER IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT AS WARM AS THE
OPERATIONAL ECM AND MEX GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS
FOR TEMPS AFTER MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK BEGIN TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL TAKE A MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO INCREASING HIGHS WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.
FWIW...H85 TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON PEAK OUT AT AROUND 16 TO 18C
ACROSS FAR SWRN NEBRASKA PER THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLNS. IF THIS
VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE HIGHS NEXT THURSDAY APPROACHING THE 70
DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

AS WIND SWINGS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE PROBABILITY OF CEILING
BELOW 1000 FEET WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CEILINGS...THERE IS A RISK OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LOW LEVEL ICING AFTER 03Z WEST OF AN ANW-BBW LINE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN-LBF LINE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 121715
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA. AT 08Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NEAR PINE RIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NCTRL KS. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FRONT. NO INDICATION YET OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS BOTH SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 26 TO 32 ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH COLDER TEENS
REPORTED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS EFFECTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS TODAY. NEAR
38 IN THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
LOWER 20S IN BOYD AND NERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

FOR TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BEGIN DEVELOPING DUE TO
A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FROM ALOFT. THE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...ADVANCING FURTHER EAST TO NEAR
VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW BY LATE TONIGHT. WHERE SOME SATURATION
DOES EXIST UP INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER...A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE AN AREA IN BETWEEN WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW MAY BOTH OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SINCE ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN IMPACT TRAVEL...WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND.  SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSITION DAY AS
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS...ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL FACILITATE A CONTINUED MENTION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION BELOW THE DGZ WHERE THERE/S WEAK OMEGA. WHERE
SUFFICIENT SATURATION IS SHOWN IS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST. THE MODELS ONLY SUGGEST A FEW
HUNDRETHS AT MOST QPF...AND WITH VERY WEAK LIFT SEEN...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS AT BEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A FAST MOVING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
BORDER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...SO ONLY A FEW TENTHS ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 0C FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.  HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE
FORECAST.  SUNDAY EVENING...THE MODELS DEPICT A FAST MOVING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS POINT...FORCING IS TOO
WEAK WITHIN THE CWA FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT THE 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE PROJECTED QPF. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY AS AT THIS POINT WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT THE MODELS LARGELY DISAGREE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
BEST FORCING...WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

AS WIND SWINGS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...THE PROBABILITY OF CEILING
BELOW 1000 FEET WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CEILINGS...THERE IS A RISK OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LOW LEVEL ICING AFTER 03Z WEST OF AN ANW-BBW LINE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN-LBF LINE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 121327
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
727 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA. AT 08Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NEAR PINE RIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NCTRL KS. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FRONT. NO INDICATION YET OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS BOTH SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 26 TO 32 ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH COLDER TEENS
REPORTED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS EFFECTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS TODAY. NEAR
38 IN THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
LOWER 20S IN BOYD AND NERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

FOR TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BEGIN DEVELOPING DUE TO
A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FROM ALOFT. THE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...ADVANCING FURTHER EAST TO NEAR
VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW BY LATE TONIGHT. WHERE SOME SATURATION
DOES EXIST UP INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER...A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE AN AREA IN BETWEEN WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW MAY BOTH OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SINCE ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN IMPACT TRAVEL...WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND.  SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSITION DAY AS
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS...ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL FACILITATE A CONTINUED MENTION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION BELOW THE DGZ WHERE THERE/S WEAK OMEGA. WHERE
SUFFICIENT SATURATION IS SHOWN IS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST. THE MODELS ONLY SUGGEST A FEW
HUNDRETHS AT MOST QPF...AND WITH VERY WEAK LIFT SEEN...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS AT BEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A FAST MOVING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
BORDER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...SO ONLY A FEW TENTHS ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 0C FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.  HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE
FORECAST.  SUNDAY EVENING...THE MODELS DEPICT A FAST MOVING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS POINT...FORCING IS TOO
WEAK WITHIN THE CWA FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT THE 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE PROJECTED QPF. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY AS AT THIS POINT WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT THE MODELS LARGELY DISAGREE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
BEST FORCING...WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

CURRENT IFR CEILINGS WITH VSBY BTWN 1 AND 3SM AT KVTN FCST TO
IMPROVE TO P6SM OVC009 AFTER 15Z...THEN MVFR AFTER 17Z. AFTER
06Z/13TH A TEMPO ADDED FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT KLBF MVFR CEILING FCST
TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AFTER 03Z WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR PATCHY FZDZ. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE AND
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 121327
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
727 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA. AT 08Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NEAR PINE RIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NCTRL KS. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FRONT. NO INDICATION YET OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS BOTH SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 26 TO 32 ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH COLDER TEENS
REPORTED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS EFFECTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS TODAY. NEAR
38 IN THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
LOWER 20S IN BOYD AND NERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

FOR TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BEGIN DEVELOPING DUE TO
A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FROM ALOFT. THE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...ADVANCING FURTHER EAST TO NEAR
VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW BY LATE TONIGHT. WHERE SOME SATURATION
DOES EXIST UP INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER...A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE AN AREA IN BETWEEN WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW MAY BOTH OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SINCE ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN IMPACT TRAVEL...WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND.  SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSITION DAY AS
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS...ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL FACILITATE A CONTINUED MENTION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION BELOW THE DGZ WHERE THERE/S WEAK OMEGA. WHERE
SUFFICIENT SATURATION IS SHOWN IS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST. THE MODELS ONLY SUGGEST A FEW
HUNDRETHS AT MOST QPF...AND WITH VERY WEAK LIFT SEEN...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS AT BEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A FAST MOVING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
BORDER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...SO ONLY A FEW TENTHS ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 0C FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.  HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE
FORECAST.  SUNDAY EVENING...THE MODELS DEPICT A FAST MOVING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS POINT...FORCING IS TOO
WEAK WITHIN THE CWA FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT THE 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE PROJECTED QPF. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY AS AT THIS POINT WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT THE MODELS LARGELY DISAGREE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
BEST FORCING...WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

CURRENT IFR CEILINGS WITH VSBY BTWN 1 AND 3SM AT KVTN FCST TO
IMPROVE TO P6SM OVC009 AFTER 15Z...THEN MVFR AFTER 17Z. AFTER
06Z/13TH A TEMPO ADDED FOR LIGHT SNOW. AT KLBF MVFR CEILING FCST
TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...IFR CEILINGS AFTER 03Z WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR PATCHY FZDZ. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE AND
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 120920
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA. AT 08Z...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM NEAR PINE RIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NCTRL KS. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE FRONT. NO INDICATION YET OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS BOTH SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 26 TO 32 ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH COLDER TEENS
REPORTED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS EFFECTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS TODAY. NEAR
38 IN THE SWRN TIER OF COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
LOWER 20S IN BOYD AND NERN HOLT COUNTY WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE DAY FROM THIS MORNINGS LOWS.

FOR TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS ALREADY IN PLACE...CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO BEGIN DEVELOPING DUE TO
A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED FROM ALOFT. THE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY WEST OF A LINE
FROM GORDON THROUGH NORTH PLATTE...ADVANCING FURTHER EAST TO NEAR
VALENTINE THROUGH BROKEN BOW BY LATE TONIGHT. WHERE SOME SATURATION
DOES EXIST UP INTO THE DENDRITIC LAYER...A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE AN AREA IN BETWEEN WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW MAY BOTH OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SINCE ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN IMPACT TRAVEL...WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

12Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND.  SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TRANSITION DAY AS
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER...OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS...ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL FACILITATE A CONTINUED MENTION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION BELOW THE DGZ WHERE THERE/S WEAK OMEGA. WHERE
SUFFICIENT SATURATION IS SHOWN IS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST. THE MODELS ONLY SUGGEST A FEW
HUNDRETHS AT MOST QPF...AND WITH VERY WEAK LIFT SEEN...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS AT BEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A FAST MOVING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE
BORDER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...SO ONLY A FEW TENTHS ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS H85 T/S ARE SHOWN TO
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 0C FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.  HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE
FORECAST.  SUNDAY EVENING...THE MODELS DEPICT A FAST MOVING MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
OF COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS POINT...FORCING IS TOO
WEAK WITHIN THE CWA FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT THE 00Z MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY EAST WITH THE PROJECTED QPF. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY AS AT THIS POINT WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH DEEPENS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...BUT THE MODELS LARGELY DISAGREE IN THE LOCATION OF THE
BEST FORCING...WILL KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND FOG SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH AND
WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR 18Z FRIDAY. A PATCH OF
VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB AS INDICATED BY THE
NAM AND RAP WHICH VARY WITH THE LOCATION BETWEEN KANW AND KLBF.
THE FORECAST USES THE NAM FOR THIS FEATURE WHICH KEEPS KLBF IN
MVFR ALL DAY.

CIGS SHOULD LOWER FRIDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH WRN NEB. THE FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 120520 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1120 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SURFACE DATA AT 19Z SHOWED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THE EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING ON THE PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG IN MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MID TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A H750 WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG A MERRIMAN TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. LIFT WILL INCREASE INVOF...AND EAST OF
THE ELEVATED FRONT OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT...SNOW WILL BE
THE MAIN PTYPE...WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT...FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING PTYPE
MENTION AS FZDZ FOR NOW AS THERE IS A DECENT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER WHICH EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE SFC TO 800MB. ON
SATURDAY...THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN CWA...H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
FACILITATE AT LEAST A FZDZ MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE H750 FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND ELEVATED
LIFT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...CLEARING THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. QPF/S WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS COLORADO
INTO KANSAS. LOW POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST IN THE FAR SWRN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BEST LIFT...WHICH RESIDES OVER NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN
THE EAST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND FOG SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH AND
WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR 18Z FRIDAY. A PATCH OF
VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB AS INDICATED BY THE
NAM AND RAP WHICH VARY WITH THE LOCATION BETWEEN KANW AND KLBF.
THE FORECAST USES THE NAM FOR THIS FEATURE WHICH KEEPS KLBF IN
MVFR ALL DAY.

CIGS SHOULD LOWER FRIDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH WRN NEB. THE FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 120520 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1120 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SURFACE DATA AT 19Z SHOWED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THE EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING ON THE PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG IN MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MID TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A H750 WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG A MERRIMAN TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. LIFT WILL INCREASE INVOF...AND EAST OF
THE ELEVATED FRONT OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT...SNOW WILL BE
THE MAIN PTYPE...WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT...FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING PTYPE
MENTION AS FZDZ FOR NOW AS THERE IS A DECENT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER WHICH EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE SFC TO 800MB. ON
SATURDAY...THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN CWA...H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
FACILITATE AT LEAST A FZDZ MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE H750 FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND ELEVATED
LIFT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...CLEARING THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. QPF/S WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS COLORADO
INTO KANSAS. LOW POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST IN THE FAR SWRN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BEST LIFT...WHICH RESIDES OVER NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN
THE EAST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR/IFR/LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND FOG SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTH AND
WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE TO IFR/MVFR 18Z FRIDAY. A PATCH OF
VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN ACROSS NCNTL NEB AS INDICATED BY THE
NAM AND RAP WHICH VARY WITH THE LOCATION BETWEEN KANW AND KLBF.
THE FORECAST USES THE NAM FOR THIS FEATURE WHICH KEEPS KLBF IN
MVFR ALL DAY.

CIGS SHOULD LOWER FRIDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH WRN NEB. THE FRONT MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 112338 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
538 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SURFACE DATA AT 19Z SHOWED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THE EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING ON THE PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG IN MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MID TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A H750 WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG A MERRIMAN TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. LIFT WILL INCREASE INVOF...AND EAST OF
THE ELEVATED FRONT OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT...SNOW WILL BE
THE MAIN PTYPE...WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT...FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING PTYPE
MENTION AS FZDZ FOR NOW AS THERE IS A DECENT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER WHICH EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE SFC TO 800MB. ON
SATURDAY...THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN CWA...H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
FACILITATE AT LEAST A FZDZ MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE H750 FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND ELEVATED
LIFT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...CLEARING THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. QPF/S WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS COLORADO
INTO KANSAS. LOW POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST IN THE FAR SWRN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BEST LIFT...WHICH RESIDES OVER NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN
THE EAST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KANW-KTIF-KOGA WILL BE THE GENESIS FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS...FLURRIES AND PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE RAP
MODEL SHOWS LIFR/FOG FORMING ALONG HIGHWAY 61 AGAIN. LAST NIGHT
THE MODEL WAS TOO FAR WEST WITH THE FOG. THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
IN REGARD TO THE LOCATIONS OF THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

WHERE EVER THE FOG FORMS IT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 112338 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
538 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SURFACE DATA AT 19Z SHOWED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THE EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING ON THE PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG IN MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MID TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A H750 WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG A MERRIMAN TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. LIFT WILL INCREASE INVOF...AND EAST OF
THE ELEVATED FRONT OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT...SNOW WILL BE
THE MAIN PTYPE...WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT...FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING PTYPE
MENTION AS FZDZ FOR NOW AS THERE IS A DECENT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER WHICH EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE SFC TO 800MB. ON
SATURDAY...THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN CWA...H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
FACILITATE AT LEAST A FZDZ MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE H750 FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND ELEVATED
LIFT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...CLEARING THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. QPF/S WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS COLORADO
INTO KANSAS. LOW POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST IN THE FAR SWRN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BEST LIFT...WHICH RESIDES OVER NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN
THE EAST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KANW-KTIF-KOGA WILL BE THE GENESIS FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS...FLURRIES AND PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE RAP
MODEL SHOWS LIFR/FOG FORMING ALONG HIGHWAY 61 AGAIN. LAST NIGHT
THE MODEL WAS TOO FAR WEST WITH THE FOG. THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
IN REGARD TO THE LOCATIONS OF THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

WHERE EVER THE FOG FORMS IT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC





000
FXUS63 KLBF 112338 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
538 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SURFACE DATA AT 19Z SHOWED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THE EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING ON THE PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG IN MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MID TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A H750 WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG A MERRIMAN TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. LIFT WILL INCREASE INVOF...AND EAST OF
THE ELEVATED FRONT OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT...SNOW WILL BE
THE MAIN PTYPE...WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT...FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING PTYPE
MENTION AS FZDZ FOR NOW AS THERE IS A DECENT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER WHICH EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE SFC TO 800MB. ON
SATURDAY...THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN CWA...H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
FACILITATE AT LEAST A FZDZ MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE H750 FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND ELEVATED
LIFT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...CLEARING THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. QPF/S WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS COLORADO
INTO KANSAS. LOW POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST IN THE FAR SWRN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BEST LIFT...WHICH RESIDES OVER NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN
THE EAST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KANW-KTIF-KOGA WILL BE THE GENESIS FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS...FLURRIES AND PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE RAP
MODEL SHOWS LIFR/FOG FORMING ALONG HIGHWAY 61 AGAIN. LAST NIGHT
THE MODEL WAS TOO FAR WEST WITH THE FOG. THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN
IN REGARD TO THE LOCATIONS OF THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

WHERE EVER THE FOG FORMS IT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTN TO MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...CDC




000
FXUS63 KLBF 112109
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SURFACE DATA AT 19Z SHOWED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THE EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING ON THE PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG IN MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MID TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A H750 WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG A MERRIMAN TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. LIFT WILL INCREASE INVOF...AND EAST OF
THE ELEVATED FRONT OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT...SNOW WILL BE
THE MAIN PTYPE...WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT...FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING PTYPE
MENTION AS FZDZ FOR NOW AS THERE IS A DECENT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER WHICH EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE SFC TO 800MB. ON
SATURDAY...THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN CWA...H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
FACILITATE AT LEAST A FZDZ MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE H750 FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND ELEVATED
LIFT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...CLEARING THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. QPF/S WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS COLORADO
INTO KANSAS. LOW POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST IN THE FAR SWRN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BEST LIFT...WHICH RESIDES OVER NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN
THE EAST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CEILINGS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BELOW 500 FEET AGL
WILL LIFT TO 800 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WILL
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...SPRINGER




000
FXUS63 KLBF 112109
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SURFACE DATA AT 19Z SHOWED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THE EDGE OF CLOUDINESS WAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY ALONG THE NEBRASKA-SOUTH
DAKOTA STATE LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. WEAK LIFT IN THE SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL PRODUCE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL
BACK THROUGH WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BRINGING MODERATE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WITH THE FRONT
STALLING ON THE PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...CLOUDS WILL
PROBABLY HANG IN MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MID TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE MID RANGE
PERIOD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A H750 WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EAST OF THE PANHANDLE...BECOMING ORIENTED ALONG A MERRIMAN TO NORTH
PLATTE LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. LIFT WILL INCREASE INVOF...AND EAST OF
THE ELEVATED FRONT OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT...SNOW WILL BE
THE MAIN PTYPE...WHILE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT...FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING PTYPE
MENTION AS FZDZ FOR NOW AS THERE IS A DECENT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE
MOIST LAYER WHICH EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY FROM THE SFC TO 800MB. ON
SATURDAY...THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
00Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PANHANDLE AND FAR
WESTERN CWA...H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL
FACILITATE AT LEAST A FZDZ MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE H750 FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AND ELEVATED
LIFT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. BY SATURDAY EVENING...A FAST MOVING MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...CLEARING THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME...IT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. QPF/S WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING WILL RESIDE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.

LONG RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS COLORADO
INTO KANSAS. LOW POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FORECAST IN THE FAR SWRN
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE BEST LIFT...WHICH RESIDES OVER NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN
THE EAST. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CEILINGS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BELOW 500 FEET AGL
WILL LIFT TO 800 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WILL
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 111903
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
101 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE
AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTANT CLOUDINESS IS KEEPING THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND THE EFFECTS THIS
HAS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE TO 45
TO 50 DEGREES. THE MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS LINGERING.

FURTHER EAST...HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AFFECTED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20-30 POP
ACROSS BOYD COUNTY AND FAR NRN HOLT COUNTY MAINLY BETWEEN 10
AM AND 3 PM ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING
PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
MENTION YET...AND IF IT WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
FRONT STALLS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND THE PANHANDLE
AS A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS EAST ATOP THE
FRONT.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE INITIALLY REVEAL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE THERMAL
PROFILES FOR ALL SNOW...BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.  THE FOCUS OF THE DRIZZLE WILL
SPREAD EAST TOWARD DAWN AND ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS SW NEB AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS
OF ONLY THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY IS INDICATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUT DOWN QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.  WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  WARMING TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE LIKELY AS
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA SPREADS EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 SOUTH OF I80 BY TUESDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MID-WEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COOL AIR BUILDS.  FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE BLENDED EXTENDED PROCEDURE...WHICH SUGGEST THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CEILINGS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BELOW 500 FEET AGL
WILL LIFT TO 800 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WILL
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 111901
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
101 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE
AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTANT CLOUDINESS IS KEEPING THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER AFTERNOON TEMTERATURES
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND THE EFFECTS THIS
HAS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE TO 45
TO 50 DEGREES. THE MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS LINGERING.

FURTHER EAST...HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AFFECTED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20-30 POP
ACROSS BOYD COUNTY AND FAR NRN HOLT COUNTY MAINLY BETWEEN 10
AM AND 3 PM ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING
PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
MENTION YET...AND IF IT WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
FRONT STALLS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND THE PANHANDLE
AS A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS EAST ATOP THE
FRONT.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE INITIALLY REVEAL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE THERMAL
PROFILES FOR ALL SNOW...BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.  THE FOCUS OF THE DRIZZLE WILL
SPREAD EAST TOWARD DAWN AND ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS SW NEB AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS
OF ONLY THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY IS INDICATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUT DOWN QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.  WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  WARMING TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE LIKELY AS
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA SPREADS EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 SOUTH OF I80 BY TUESDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MID-WEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COOL AIR BUILDS.  FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE BLENDED EXTENDED PROCEDURE...WHICH SUGGEST THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CEILINGS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BELOW 500 FEET AGL
WILL LIFT TO 800 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WILL
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 111901
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
101 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE
AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTANT CLOUDINESS IS KEEPING THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN. WE
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT LOWER AFTERNOON TEMTERATURES
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND THE EFFECTS THIS
HAS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE TO 45
TO 50 DEGREES. THE MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS LINGERING.

FURTHER EAST...HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AFFECTED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20-30 POP
ACROSS BOYD COUNTY AND FAR NRN HOLT COUNTY MAINLY BETWEEN 10
AM AND 3 PM ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING
PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
MENTION YET...AND IF IT WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
FRONT STALLS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND THE PANHANDLE
AS A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS EAST ATOP THE
FRONT.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE INITIALLY REVEAL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE THERMAL
PROFILES FOR ALL SNOW...BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.  THE FOCUS OF THE DRIZZLE WILL
SPREAD EAST TOWARD DAWN AND ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS SW NEB AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS
OF ONLY THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY IS INDICATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUT DOWN QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.  WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  WARMING TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE LIKELY AS
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA SPREADS EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 SOUTH OF I80 BY TUESDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MID-WEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COOL AIR BUILDS.  FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE BLENDED EXTENDED PROCEDURE...WHICH SUGGEST THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CEILINGS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BELOW 500 FEET AGL
WILL LIFT TO 800 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WILL
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 111814
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE
AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND THE EFFECTS THIS
HAS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE TO 45
TO 50 DEGREES. THE MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS LINGERING.

FURTHER EAST...HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AFFECTED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20-30 POP
ACROSS BOYD COUNTY AND FAR NRN HOLT COUNTY MAINLY BETWEEN 10
AM AND 3 PM ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING
PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
MENTION YET...AND IF IT WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
FRONT STALLS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND THE PANHANDLE
AS A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS EAST ATOP THE
FRONT.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE INITIALLY REVEAL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE THERMAL
PROFILES FOR ALL SNOW...BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.  THE FOCUS OF THE DRIZZLE WILL
SPREAD EAST TOWARD DAWN AND ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS SW NEB AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS
OF ONLY THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY IS INDICATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUT DOWN QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.  WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  WARMING TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE LIKELY AS
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA SPREADS EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 SOUTH OF I80 BY TUESDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MID-WEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COOL AIR BUILDS.  FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE BLENDED EXTENDED PROCEDURE...WHICH SUGGEST THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CEILINGS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BELOW 500 FEET AGL
WILL LIFT TO 800 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WILL
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 111814
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE
AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND THE EFFECTS THIS
HAS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE TO 45
TO 50 DEGREES. THE MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS LINGERING.

FURTHER EAST...HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AFFECTED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20-30 POP
ACROSS BOYD COUNTY AND FAR NRN HOLT COUNTY MAINLY BETWEEN 10
AM AND 3 PM ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING
PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
MENTION YET...AND IF IT WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
FRONT STALLS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND THE PANHANDLE
AS A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS EAST ATOP THE
FRONT.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE INITIALLY REVEAL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE THERMAL
PROFILES FOR ALL SNOW...BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.  THE FOCUS OF THE DRIZZLE WILL
SPREAD EAST TOWARD DAWN AND ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS SW NEB AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS
OF ONLY THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY IS INDICATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUT DOWN QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.  WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  WARMING TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE LIKELY AS
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA SPREADS EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 SOUTH OF I80 BY TUESDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MID-WEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COOL AIR BUILDS.  FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE BLENDED EXTENDED PROCEDURE...WHICH SUGGEST THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CEILINGS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BELOW 500 FEET AGL
WILL LIFT TO 800 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WILL
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER





000
FXUS63 KLBF 111814
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT FOG INDICATED AT THEDFORD AND PINE RIDGE
AS OF 08Z. TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND THE EFFECTS THIS
HAS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL VEER SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO RISE TO 45
TO 50 DEGREES. THE MORNING STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS LINGERING.

FURTHER EAST...HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AFFECTED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PERSISTENT STRATUS. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20-30 POP
ACROSS BOYD COUNTY AND FAR NRN HOLT COUNTY MAINLY BETWEEN 10
AM AND 3 PM ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.

FOR TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH STRATUS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE COULD
BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUNDING
PROFILES FAVOR SOME CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
MENTION YET...AND IF IT WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FA. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 20S CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25 NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...TO NEAR 40 OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
FRONT STALLS FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB AND THE PANHANDLE
AS A WEAK AREA OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS EAST ATOP THE
FRONT.  PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PANHANDLE INITIALLY REVEAL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE THERMAL
PROFILES FOR ALL SNOW...BUT INTO THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS FAVOR MORE
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SNOW.  THE FOCUS OF THE DRIZZLE WILL
SPREAD EAST TOWARD DAWN AND ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...WITH HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS SW NEB AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGHS
OF ONLY THE MID 20S.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER ARRIVES OVER NORTHERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE BEST LIFT GENERALLY IS INDICATED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUT DOWN QPF ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.  WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST...BUT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF CHANCES
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  WARMING TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE LIKELY AS
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WAA SPREADS EAST FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN WEST.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 SOUTH OF I80 BY TUESDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK AS RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA.  ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES MID-WEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COOL AIR BUILDS.  FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE BLENDED EXTENDED PROCEDURE...WHICH SUGGEST THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED BEYOND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

CEILINGS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BELOW 500 FEET AGL
WILL LIFT TO 800 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN AGAIN
AFTER SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL WILL
SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities