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000
FXUS63 KLBF 190442
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1142 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

INFRA-RED GOES IMAGERY WAS SHOWING PATCHES OF FOG IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. WITH CLEAR SKY LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND...THERE IS NO
COMPELLING REASON TO EXPECT IT NOT TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS.
THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...
DECOUPLING IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY SHOULD KEEP IT EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SO...WE HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS OF FOG/MIST ARE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
INCLUDING THE AREAS BOUNDED BY BBW-OGA-MCK-LXN-BBW. WITH LIGHT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND...THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT FOG/MIST WILL
NOT CONTINUE FORMING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHICH
INCLUDES THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST OF LBF...THROUGH LBF TO OGA AND
EXTENDS TO IML. AS A RESULT...WE WILL INCLUDE 1SM BRFG IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST FOR LBF AFTER 10Z. FOG/MIST IS LIKELY TO LIFT
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY
OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 190350
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1050 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

INFRA-RED GOES IMAGERY WAS SHOWING PATCHES OF FOG IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY. WITH CLEAR SKY LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND...THERE IS NO
COMPELLING REASON TO EXPECT IT NOT TO CONTINUE IN THE VALLEYS.
THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...
DECOUPLING IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY SHOULD KEEP IT EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SO...WE HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 1049 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

STRATUS IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AS WIND
DIMINISHES AND THE SKY CLEARS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING VISIBILITY. THE VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1SM OR
LESS TO 4SM IN PATCHY FOG/MIST. FOG WILL LIFT RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 182324
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTRUMENT OR
LOW INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THE
MARGINAL CEILINGS NOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
LOWER THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION BECOMES
180-200 VERSUS THE 130-160 DIRECTION OVER THE AREA NOW. AROUND THAT
TIME...THE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES. HOWEVER...ALONG THE EDGES OF THE STRATUS...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS FAIRLY HIGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WE ARE
THINKING THAT...BY ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z...VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AFTER FLIRTING BRIEFLY WITH VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 182324
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTRUMENT OR
LOW INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS AND/OR FOG.
CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS ARE THAT THE
MARGINAL CEILINGS NOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
LOWER THROUGH ABOUT 09Z WHEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION BECOMES
180-200 VERSUS THE 130-160 DIRECTION OVER THE AREA NOW. AROUND THAT
TIME...THE STRATUS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO ERODE ON THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN EDGES. HOWEVER...ALONG THE EDGES OF THE STRATUS...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS FAIRLY HIGH AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. WE ARE
THINKING THAT...BY ABOUT 13Z OR 14Z...VISUAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AFTER FLIRTING BRIEFLY WITH VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 182008
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AT H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES WITH FAST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TROUGH ALONG
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEAST OVER IDAHO
AND MONTANA AS SEEN IN IR AND RADAR. REMAINS OF ODILLE UNDER THE
ROCKIES RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH ASSOCIATED
RADAR RETURNS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN H850 MB WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...H850 MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS...AS WARMER AND DRIER AT
THAT LEVEL RUSH INTO THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT THE STRATUS DECK
TO HANG TOUGH AND EVEN EXPAND THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 MPH RANGE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK WARM UP...WITH AREAS FROM AROUND ONEILL...SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTH PLATTE NEARING 90 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...AND HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT A FAIRLY STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OR HINDER DEVELOPMENT
ALTOGETHER UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND
FOR THE FORECAST. MID TERM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN ENERGY WITH
SYSTEM IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MID LEVEL FORCING OVER
NEBRASKA FAIRLY WEAK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HAVE RETAINED CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOW 80S ON SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN AND COOLS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DRY FOR NOW. CLOSED
CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM MEANDERS WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. BLOCKING PATTERN DOWNSTREAM WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA MOST OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN
SPOTS. AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION.




&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 181804
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
104 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN
SPOTS. AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KLBF 181804
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
104 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN AREA OF STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR AND LOCAL IFR WILL PERSIST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN
SPOTS. AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR







000
FXUS63 KLBF 181200
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
700 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBF SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER 15Z. STRTUS
AND FOG HAS ALSO MOVED INTO KVTN PRIOR TO 12Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. A RETURN TO IFR IS POSSIBLE BY 03Z
19TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 181200
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
700 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBF SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR AFTER 15Z. STRTUS
AND FOG HAS ALSO MOVED INTO KVTN PRIOR TO 12Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. A RETURN TO IFR IS POSSIBLE BY 03Z
19TH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 180856
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ONCE AGAIN...THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW INSTRUMENT
THRESHOLDS. CONSENSUS AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS THAT
INSTRUMENT OR LOW INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG AND SOUTH-WEST OF A
VTN-ANW-BBW LINE. THOUGH IT MAKES LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY...THE OTHER QUESTION IS...FOG OR STRATUS? CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND SPEED WILL BE 5-10KT AND THAT WOULD
FAVOR LOW STRATUS VERSUS FOG. THEREFORE...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT CEILING AT OR BELOW 500 FEET AGL WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FOR
MHN...OGA AND LBF AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT INSTRUMENT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR VTN...TIF AND BBW. FOR THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...WE WILL INCLUDE CEILING BELOW 500 FEET AND VISIBILITY
2-3SM FOR LBF AND CEILING JUST ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY
3-5SM FOR VTN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD INDICATE SCATTERING BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

THOUGH THIS IS BEYOND THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WINDOW...INSTRUMENT
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 180856
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALBERTA CANADA INTO
NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING FROM NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEBR AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA REPORTING MAINLY LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
AT THE KBBW ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WHILE LOW
VISIBILITY OF 1/4-1/2SM AT KBBW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD RANGE FROM 3-5 SM OR
HIGHER. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 15Z.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A NEARLY
SATURATED H9-H85 LAYER PRESENT WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO EXIT MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE BY 18Z...WHILE
POTENTIALLY PERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE NAM AND
06Z RAP MODEL. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS WITH MUCH
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE. USING 00Z SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...BLENDED WITH
THE 00Z MET GUIDANCE TO REFLECT COOLER HIGHS. WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS ACROSS WRN TIER OF COUNTIES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
ATTAINABLE. MID 70S FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SERN
ZONES. ALSO INCREASED PERCENT SKY COVER TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 25C. THIS
WILL CAUSE LINGERING STRATUS THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AND DISPERSE AFTER 06Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER
THAN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS RANGING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
THERE WILL BE A STRONG INVERSION WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST LATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FRIDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLE WARM DAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW
S DAKOTA ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO WYOMING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
SHOULD MIX OUT ANY BL MOISTURE FOG/STRATUS. 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE
20S C AND MOS GUIDANCE WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S.
SHOULD SEE SOME A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
SO KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE. COLD FRONT WILL WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE ADDED CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MILD OVERNIGHT.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING EAST
IN THE MORNING. SOME SUN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPS REBOUND TO
AROUND 80 ON SATURDAY.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS TO SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...HOWEVER
MODELS GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE CWA.

NEXT WEEK THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING A RETURN OF MORE MOISTURE. A DISTURBANCE SHOULD RIDE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH 850 TEMPS ON THE
RISE...CLOUDS /ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE/ LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM JUMPING UP TO MUCH. GUIDANCE SUGGEST SEASONAL MID
70S...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ONCE AGAIN...THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW INSTRUMENT
THRESHOLDS. CONSENSUS AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS THAT
INSTRUMENT OR LOW INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG AND SOUTH-WEST OF A
VTN-ANW-BBW LINE. THOUGH IT MAKES LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY...THE OTHER QUESTION IS...FOG OR STRATUS? CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND SPEED WILL BE 5-10KT AND THAT WOULD
FAVOR LOW STRATUS VERSUS FOG. THEREFORE...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT CEILING AT OR BELOW 500 FEET AGL WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FOR
MHN...OGA AND LBF AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT INSTRUMENT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR VTN...TIF AND BBW. FOR THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...WE WILL INCLUDE CEILING BELOW 500 FEET AND VISIBILITY
2-3SM FOR LBF AND CEILING JUST ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY
3-5SM FOR VTN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD INDICATE SCATTERING BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

THOUGH THIS IS BEYOND THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WINDOW...INSTRUMENT
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER






000
FXUS63 KLBF 180444
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN
CANADA. ACROSS THE CONUS...BROAD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE A
RIDGE EXTENDED NWD INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE WERE LOCATED OVER SERN AZ WITH A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDING
NEWD INTO NEW MEXICO...SRN COLORADO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SWRN
KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
LINCOLN...HAYES...FRONTIER...CUSTER AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KEITH
COUNTY. THIS FOG BURNED OFF AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
PLACE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INTO
NWRN KS...WHERE IT EXTENDED EAST INTO SWRN MO. NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 79 AT AINSWORTH TO 88 AT THEDFORD AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WARM FRONT AT H850 MB WILL LIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER IS A BIT MORE THICK TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. WITH THE THICKER
LAYER...ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE/BURN OFF
THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THESE AREAS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED
WINDS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE FOG THREAT...HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PER H850-H900 RH FIELD...MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS IN THE EASTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL LINGER SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...DRIER...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...HIGHS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 80S...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...TO
ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL
ARRIVE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH WITH TDYS RUNS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...DECIDED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LED TO A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTH PLATTE BEING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR POPS...DECIDED TO SCALE THESE BACK
SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
STRONGEST IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS...TRACK THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SRN KS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ITS ONLY IMPACTS MAY BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE AS A POSSIBLE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EMERGING ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS MODEL SCENARIO IS IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODEL RUNS...WHICH BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SIMPLY PUT...WITH THE LARGE
MODEL CHANGE NOTED THIS MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 5
THROUGH 7 IS LOW. ON THIS NOTION...WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS AND POPS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ONCE AGAIN...THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW INSTRUMENT THRESHOLDS.
CONSENSUS AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS THAT INSTRUMENT OR
LOW INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN A LARGE PART
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG AND SOUTH-WEST OF A VTN-ANW-BBW LINE.
THOUGH IT MAKES LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FLIGHT CATEGORY...THE OTHER
QUESTION IS...FOG OR STRATUS? CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND
SPEED WILL BE 5-10KT AND THAT WOULD FAVOR LOW STRATUS VERSUS FOG.
THEREFORE...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CEILING AT OR BELOW 500 FEET
AGL WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FOR MHN...OGA AND LBF AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR VTN...TIF AND
BBW. FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...WE WILL INCLUDE CEILING BELOW 500
FEET AND VISIBILITY 2-3SM FOR LBF AND CEILING JUST ABOVE 1000 FEET
AGL AND VISIBILITY 3-5SM FOR VTN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SCATTER OUT. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE MODELS AND
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY WOULD INDICATE SCATTERING BETWEEN 16Z AND
18Z.

THOUGH THIS IS BEYOND THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WINDOW...INSTRUMENT
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 180444
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN
CANADA. ACROSS THE CONUS...BROAD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE A
RIDGE EXTENDED NWD INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE WERE LOCATED OVER SERN AZ WITH A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDING
NEWD INTO NEW MEXICO...SRN COLORADO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SWRN
KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
LINCOLN...HAYES...FRONTIER...CUSTER AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KEITH
COUNTY. THIS FOG BURNED OFF AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
PLACE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INTO
NWRN KS...WHERE IT EXTENDED EAST INTO SWRN MO. NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 79 AT AINSWORTH TO 88 AT THEDFORD AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WARM FRONT AT H850 MB WILL LIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER IS A BIT MORE THICK TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. WITH THE THICKER
LAYER...ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE/BURN OFF
THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THESE AREAS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED
WINDS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE FOG THREAT...HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PER H850-H900 RH FIELD...MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS IN THE EASTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL LINGER SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...DRIER...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...HIGHS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 80S...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...TO
ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL
ARRIVE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH WITH TDYS RUNS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...DECIDED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LED TO A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTH PLATTE BEING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR POPS...DECIDED TO SCALE THESE BACK
SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
STRONGEST IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS...TRACK THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SRN KS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ITS ONLY IMPACTS MAY BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE AS A POSSIBLE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EMERGING ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS MODEL SCENARIO IS IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODEL RUNS...WHICH BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SIMPLY PUT...WITH THE LARGE
MODEL CHANGE NOTED THIS MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 5
THROUGH 7 IS LOW. ON THIS NOTION...WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS AND POPS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ONCE AGAIN...THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW INSTRUMENT THRESHOLDS.
CONSENSUS AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS THAT INSTRUMENT OR
LOW INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN A LARGE PART
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG AND SOUTH-WEST OF A VTN-ANW-BBW LINE.
THOUGH IT MAKES LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FLIGHT CATEGORY...THE OTHER
QUESTION IS...FOG OR STRATUS? CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND
SPEED WILL BE 5-10KT AND THAT WOULD FAVOR LOW STRATUS VERSUS FOG.
THEREFORE...OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CEILING AT OR BELOW 500 FEET
AGL WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z FOR MHN...OGA AND LBF AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR VTN...TIF AND
BBW. FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...WE WILL INCLUDE CEILING BELOW 500
FEET AND VISIBILITY 2-3SM FOR LBF AND CEILING JUST ABOVE 1000 FEET
AGL AND VISIBILITY 3-5SM FOR VTN. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
SCATTER OUT. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM SHORT RANGE MODELS AND
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY WOULD INDICATE SCATTERING BETWEEN 16Z AND
18Z.

THOUGH THIS IS BEYOND THE 24 HOUR FORECAST WINDOW...INSTRUMENT
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 172326
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN
CANADA. ACROSS THE CONUS...BROAD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE A
RIDGE EXTENDED NWD INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE WERE LOCATED OVER SERN AZ WITH A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDING
NEWD INTO NEW MEXICO...SRN COLORADO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SWRN
KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
LINCOLN...HAYES...FRONTIER...CUSTER AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KEITH
COUNTY. THIS FOG BURNED OFF AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
PLACE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INTO
NWRN KS...WHERE IT EXTENDED EAST INTO SWRN MO. NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 79 AT AINSWORTH TO 88 AT THEDFORD AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WARM FRONT AT H850 MB WILL LIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER IS A BIT MORE THICK TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. WITH THE THICKER
LAYER...ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE/BURN OFF
THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THESE AREAS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED
WINDS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE FOG THREAT...HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PER H850-H900 RH FIELD...MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS IN THE EASTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL LINGER SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...DRIER...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...HIGHS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 80S...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...TO
ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL
ARRIVE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH WITH TDYS RUNS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...DECIDED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LED TO A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTH PLATTE BEING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR POPS...DECIDED TO SCALE THESE BACK
SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
STRONGEST IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS...TRACK THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SRN KS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ITS ONLY IMPACTS MAY BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE AS A POSSIBLE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EMERGING ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS MODEL SCENARIO IS IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODEL RUNS...WHICH BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SIMPLY PUT...WITH THE LARGE
MODEL CHANGE NOTED THIS MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 5
THROUGH 7 IS LOW. ON THIS NOTION...WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS AND POPS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ONCE AGAIN...THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW INSTRUMENT THRESHOLDS.
CONSENSUS AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS THAT INSTRUMENT OR
LIMITED INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN A LARGE
PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG SOUTH AND WEST OF A VTN-ANW-BBW LINE.
THOUGH IT MAKES LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FLIGHT CATEGORY...THE OTHER
QUESTION IS...FOG OR STRATUS? CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND
SPEED WILL BE HIGHER THAN 5KT AND THAT WOULD FAVOR LOW STRATUS WITH
CEILINGS 500 FEET AGL OR LOWER. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LIMITED INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z FOR MHN...OGA
AND LBF AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FOR  VTN...TIF AND BBW. FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...WE WILL
INCLUDE CEILING BELOW 500 FEET AND VISIBILITY AROUND 3SM FOR LBF AND
CEILING JUST ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY 3-5SM FOR VTN. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM
SHORT RANGE MODELS WOULD INDICATE SCATTERING BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 172326
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN
CANADA. ACROSS THE CONUS...BROAD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE A
RIDGE EXTENDED NWD INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE WERE LOCATED OVER SERN AZ WITH A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDING
NEWD INTO NEW MEXICO...SRN COLORADO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SWRN
KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
LINCOLN...HAYES...FRONTIER...CUSTER AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KEITH
COUNTY. THIS FOG BURNED OFF AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
PLACE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INTO
NWRN KS...WHERE IT EXTENDED EAST INTO SWRN MO. NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 79 AT AINSWORTH TO 88 AT THEDFORD AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WARM FRONT AT H850 MB WILL LIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER IS A BIT MORE THICK TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. WITH THE THICKER
LAYER...ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE/BURN OFF
THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THESE AREAS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED
WINDS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE FOG THREAT...HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PER H850-H900 RH FIELD...MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS IN THE EASTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL LINGER SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...DRIER...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...HIGHS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 80S...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...TO
ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL
ARRIVE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH WITH TDYS RUNS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...DECIDED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LED TO A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTH PLATTE BEING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR POPS...DECIDED TO SCALE THESE BACK
SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
STRONGEST IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS...TRACK THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SRN KS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ITS ONLY IMPACTS MAY BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE AS A POSSIBLE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EMERGING ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS MODEL SCENARIO IS IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODEL RUNS...WHICH BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SIMPLY PUT...WITH THE LARGE
MODEL CHANGE NOTED THIS MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 5
THROUGH 7 IS LOW. ON THIS NOTION...WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS AND POPS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ONCE AGAIN...THE FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW INSTRUMENT THRESHOLDS.
CONSENSUS AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODEL OUTPUT IS THAT INSTRUMENT OR
LIMITED INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN A LARGE
PART OF WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG SOUTH AND WEST OF A VTN-ANW-BBW LINE.
THOUGH IT MAKES LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FLIGHT CATEGORY...THE OTHER
QUESTION IS...FOG OR STRATUS? CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND
SPEED WILL BE HIGHER THAN 5KT AND THAT WOULD FAVOR LOW STRATUS WITH
CEILINGS 500 FEET AGL OR LOWER. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LIMITED INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 08Z FOR MHN...OGA
AND LBF AND CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT INSTRUMENT CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FOR  VTN...TIF AND BBW. FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...WE WILL
INCLUDE CEILING BELOW 500 FEET AND VISIBILITY AROUND 3SM FOR LBF AND
CEILING JUST ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY 3-5SM FOR VTN. THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM
SHORT RANGE MODELS WOULD INDICATE SCATTERING BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 172021
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN
CANADA. ACROSS THE CONUS...BROAD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE A
RIDGE EXTENDED NWD INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE WERE LOCATED OVER SERN AZ WITH A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDING
NEWD INTO NEW MEXICO...SRN COLORADO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SWRN
KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
LINCOLN...HAYES...FRONTIER...CUSTER AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KEITH
COUNTY. THIS FOG BURNED OFF AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
PLACE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INTO
NWRN KS...WHERE IT EXTENDED EAST INTO SWRN MO. NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 79 AT AINSWORTH TO 88 AT THEDFORD AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WARM FRONT AT H850 MB WILL LIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER IS A BIT MORE THICK TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. WITH THE THICKER
LAYER...ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE/BURN OFF
THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THESE AREAS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED
WINDS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE FOG THREAT...HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PER H850-H900 RH FIELD...MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS IN THE EASTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL LINGER SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...DRIER...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...HIGHS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 80S...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...TO
ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL
ARRIVE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH WITH TDYS RUNS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...DECIDED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LED TO A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTH PLATTE BEING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR POPS...DECIDED TO SCALE THESE BACK
SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
STRONGEST IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS...TRACK THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SRN KS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ITS ONLY IMPACTS MAY BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE AS A POSSIBLE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EMERGING ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS MODEL SCENARIO IS IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODEL RUNS...WHICH BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SIMPLY PUT...WITH THE LARGE
MODEL CHANGE NOTED THIS MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 5
THROUGH 7 IS LOW. ON THIS NOTION...WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS AND POPS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR AND
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING...WITH ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LIFR WILL DEVELOP AT KLBF AND SURROUNDING AREA BY 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...TAYLOR







000
FXUS63 KLBF 172021
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SWD INTO EASTERN
CANADA. ACROSS THE CONUS...BROAD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE A
RIDGE EXTENDED NWD INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE WERE LOCATED OVER SERN AZ WITH A LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDING
NEWD INTO NEW MEXICO...SRN COLORADO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...SWRN
KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...DENSE FOG DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
LINCOLN...HAYES...FRONTIER...CUSTER AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF KEITH
COUNTY. THIS FOG BURNED OFF AROUND 11 AM THIS MORNING. IN ITS
PLACE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INTO
NWRN KS...WHERE IT EXTENDED EAST INTO SWRN MO. NORTH AND EAST OF
THIS FEATURE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 79 AT AINSWORTH TO 88 AT THEDFORD AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WARM FRONT AT H850 MB WILL LIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER WYOMING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH...WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS REDEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. THE SATURATED LAYER IS A BIT MORE THICK TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. WITH THE THICKER
LAYER...ANTICIPATING THE STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE/BURN OFF
THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THESE AREAS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED
WINDS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE FOG THREAT...HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PER H850-H900 RH FIELD...MAY ALLOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HRS IN THE EASTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL LINGER SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...DRIER...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...HIGHS
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK PLAUSIBLE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 80S...ESPECIALLY OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...TO
ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL
ARRIVE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH WITH TDYS RUNS. WITH THIS IN
MIND...DECIDED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LED TO A DRY FORECAST
FRIDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NORTH PLATTE BEING AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR POPS...DECIDED TO SCALE THESE BACK
SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
STRONGEST IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH
IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE...THE LATEST MODEL SOLNS...TRACK THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SRN KS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ITS ONLY IMPACTS MAY BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH MAY
LIMIT HIGH TEMPS SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER
MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL INCREASE AS A POSSIBLE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EMERGING ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS MODEL SCENARIO IS IN
STARK CONTRAST TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MODEL RUNS...WHICH BUILDS A
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SIMPLY PUT...WITH THE LARGE
MODEL CHANGE NOTED THIS MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DAYS 5
THROUGH 7 IS LOW. ON THIS NOTION...WILL KEEP TEMPS AT OR NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS AND POPS RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR AND
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING...WITH ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LIFR WILL DEVELOP AT KLBF AND SURROUNDING AREA BY 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KLBF 171818
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
118 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
REPORTING LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT THE KLBF
ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS CONTINUED FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOW VISIBILITY 1/4-1/2SM AT KLBF
AND KBBW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. CURRENTLY THE DENSE
FOG IS VERY LOCALIZED AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT INDICATE A CONCERN
YET. HOWEVER...IF FOG BECOMES DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO ALBERTA
CANADA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST INFLUENCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM IDAHO AND OREGON INTO
COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS OF 55 TO
60 GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST H85 TEMPS OF 27C IN FAR SWRN
NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 90 FAR SWRN ZONES WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S MUCH OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...HIGH SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 80.

A WARM FRONT WILL ROUGHLY EXTEND THROUGH A MCCOOK THROUGH EMPORIA
KS LINE TONIGHT. 0-3KM CAPES AS HIGH AS 1200 J/KG WILL BE
AVAILABLE AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO LBF AND BBW. CONTINUED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 03Z FOR MUCH OF
THE SERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...A SATURATED LOW LEVEL (1000-850MB)
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY LAYER H8-H6. SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEBR
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS CLOUDS...FOG AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO START THE DAY. VERY MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH UPSLOPE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE WEST. QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
MORNING SHOULD BE CLOUDY THEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERN ZONES LIKELY WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON...OR LATER
SO TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 70S. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PANHANDLE AND FAR
SW NEB TO CLEAR AND WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...MAYBE 90. MODELS
VARY FOR THE 83 CORRIDOR CLEARING. THE NAM KEEPS CLOUDS IN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH 2M TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...MEANWHILE
MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 80S. FORECAST TRENDS TEMPS DOWN AS MOS
DOES KEEP SKIES OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
DOWN AS LOW OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BL MOISTURE DECENT AND WILL
HELP HOLD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AFTER A WARM
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KS...POSSIBLE SEEING SOME MOISTURE INTO SRN NEB. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

TO START OFF NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW...WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A WESTERN RIDGE INTO SW CANADA.
A CLOSED LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL CA ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
WILL BRING A SLGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THE LOW
IS NOT IN THE MEAN FLOW AND MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING IT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SO PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED. FOR NOW CONTINUED
WITH A MODEL BLEND ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR AND
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING...WITH ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LIFR WILL DEVELOP AT KLBF AND SURROUNDING AREA BY 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR





000
FXUS63 KLBF 171818
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
118 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
REPORTING LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT THE KLBF
ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS CONTINUED FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOW VISIBILITY 1/4-1/2SM AT KLBF
AND KBBW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. CURRENTLY THE DENSE
FOG IS VERY LOCALIZED AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT INDICATE A CONCERN
YET. HOWEVER...IF FOG BECOMES DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO ALBERTA
CANADA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST INFLUENCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM IDAHO AND OREGON INTO
COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS OF 55 TO
60 GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST H85 TEMPS OF 27C IN FAR SWRN
NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 90 FAR SWRN ZONES WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S MUCH OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...HIGH SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 80.

A WARM FRONT WILL ROUGHLY EXTEND THROUGH A MCCOOK THROUGH EMPORIA
KS LINE TONIGHT. 0-3KM CAPES AS HIGH AS 1200 J/KG WILL BE
AVAILABLE AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO LBF AND BBW. CONTINUED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 03Z FOR MUCH OF
THE SERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...A SATURATED LOW LEVEL (1000-850MB)
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY LAYER H8-H6. SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEBR
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS CLOUDS...FOG AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO START THE DAY. VERY MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH UPSLOPE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE WEST. QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
MORNING SHOULD BE CLOUDY THEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERN ZONES LIKELY WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON...OR LATER
SO TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 70S. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PANHANDLE AND FAR
SW NEB TO CLEAR AND WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...MAYBE 90. MODELS
VARY FOR THE 83 CORRIDOR CLEARING. THE NAM KEEPS CLOUDS IN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH 2M TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...MEANWHILE
MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 80S. FORECAST TRENDS TEMPS DOWN AS MOS
DOES KEEP SKIES OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
DOWN AS LOW OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BL MOISTURE DECENT AND WILL
HELP HOLD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AFTER A WARM
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KS...POSSIBLE SEEING SOME MOISTURE INTO SRN NEB. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

TO START OFF NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW...WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A WESTERN RIDGE INTO SW CANADA.
A CLOSED LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL CA ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
WILL BRING A SLGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THE LOW
IS NOT IN THE MEAN FLOW AND MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING IT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SO PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED. FOR NOW CONTINUED
WITH A MODEL BLEND ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR AND
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR IS EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND POSSIBLE
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS OCCURRING...WITH ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LIFR WILL DEVELOP AT KLBF AND SURROUNDING AREA BY 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT...AND AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17Z THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KLBF 171147
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
REPORTING LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT THE KLBF
ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS CONTINUED FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOW VISIBILITY 1/4-1/2SM AT KLBF
AND KBBW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. CURRENTLY THE DENSE
FOG IS VERY LOCALIZED AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT INDICATE A CONCERN
YET. HOWEVER...IF FOG BECOMES DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO ALBERTA
CANADA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST INFLUENCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM IDAHO AND OREGON INTO
COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS OF 55 TO
60 GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST H85 TEMPS OF 27C IN FAR SWRN
NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 90 FAR SWRN ZONES WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S MUCH OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...HIGH SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 80.

A WARM FRONT WILL ROUGHLY EXTEND THROUGH A MCCOOK THROUGH EMPORIA
KS LINE TONIGHT. 0-3KM CAPES AS HIGH AS 1200 J/KG WILL BE
AVAILABLE AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO LBF AND BBW. CONTINUED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 03Z FOR MUCH OF
THE SERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...A SATURATED LOW LEVEL (1000-850MB)
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY LAYER H8-H6. SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEBR
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS CLOUDS...FOG AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO START THE DAY. VERY MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH UPSLOPE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE WEST. QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
MORNING SHOULD BE CLOUDY THEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERN ZONES LIKELY WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON...OR LATER
SO TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 70S. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PANHANDLE AND FAR
SW NEB TO CLEAR AND WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...MAYBE 90. MODELS
VARY FOR THE 83 CORRIDOR CLEARING. THE NAM KEEPS CLOUDS IN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH 2M TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...MEANWHILE
MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 80S. FORECAST TRENDS TEMPS DOWN AS MOS
DOES KEEP SKIES OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
DOWN AS LOW OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BL MOISTURE DECENT AND WILL
HELP HOLD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AFTER A WARM
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KS...POSSIBLE SEEING SOME MOISTURE INTO SRN NEB. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

TO START OFF NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW...WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A WESTERN RIDGE INTO SW CANADA.
A CLOSED LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL CA ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
WILL BRING A SLGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THE LOW
IS NOT IN THE MEAN FLOW AND MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING IT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SO PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED. FOR NOW CONTINUED
WITH A MODEL BLEND ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TONIGHT UNTIL SOMETIME
AFTER 08Z. THEN...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
EVENING LBF SOUNDING SHOWS A UNIFORMLY MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. USING THE EQUIVALENT DEWPOINT...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
FOG FOR THE LBF AREA WITH TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW 52F. ALSO...THE
HOURLY REFRESH CYCLE SHOWS LOW VISIBILITY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
SWATH FROM BUB...THROUGH LBF AND OGA...TO IML. BECAUSE OF THE RIVER
AND WETLANDS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THOSE AREAS WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY...ABOUT 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY...THAT THE VISIBILITY AT
LBF COULD DECREASE TO 1/2SM OR LESS. STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE
EVENING MODEL RUN SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. FOR LBF THEN...WE WILL USE
1SM BCFG WITH A FIELD THRESHOLD TEMPO 1/2SM FG VV002. BOTH
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE HOURLY REFRESH MODELS INDICATE THE
FOG LIFTING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE OR BY 14Z. ONE FACTOR LIMITING OUR
CONFIDENCE IS THE WIND. IF IT DOES NOT DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KLBF WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BETWEEN
14Z-15Z TO VFR. A RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z/18TH. PATCHY FOG AT KVTN SHOULD QUICKLY END WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ038-057-059-070-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 171147
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
647 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
REPORTING LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT THE KLBF
ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS CONTINUED FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOW VISIBILITY 1/4-1/2SM AT KLBF
AND KBBW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. CURRENTLY THE DENSE
FOG IS VERY LOCALIZED AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT INDICATE A CONCERN
YET. HOWEVER...IF FOG BECOMES DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO ALBERTA
CANADA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST INFLUENCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM IDAHO AND OREGON INTO
COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS OF 55 TO
60 GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST H85 TEMPS OF 27C IN FAR SWRN
NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 90 FAR SWRN ZONES WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S MUCH OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...HIGH SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 80.

A WARM FRONT WILL ROUGHLY EXTEND THROUGH A MCCOOK THROUGH EMPORIA
KS LINE TONIGHT. 0-3KM CAPES AS HIGH AS 1200 J/KG WILL BE
AVAILABLE AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO LBF AND BBW. CONTINUED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 03Z FOR MUCH OF
THE SERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...A SATURATED LOW LEVEL (1000-850MB)
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY LAYER H8-H6. SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEBR
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS CLOUDS...FOG AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO START THE DAY. VERY MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH UPSLOPE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE WEST. QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
MORNING SHOULD BE CLOUDY THEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERN ZONES LIKELY WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON...OR LATER
SO TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 70S. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PANHANDLE AND FAR
SW NEB TO CLEAR AND WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...MAYBE 90. MODELS
VARY FOR THE 83 CORRIDOR CLEARING. THE NAM KEEPS CLOUDS IN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH 2M TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...MEANWHILE
MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 80S. FORECAST TRENDS TEMPS DOWN AS MOS
DOES KEEP SKIES OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
DOWN AS LOW OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BL MOISTURE DECENT AND WILL
HELP HOLD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AFTER A WARM
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KS...POSSIBLE SEEING SOME MOISTURE INTO SRN NEB. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

TO START OFF NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW...WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A WESTERN RIDGE INTO SW CANADA.
A CLOSED LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL CA ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
WILL BRING A SLGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THE LOW
IS NOT IN THE MEAN FLOW AND MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING IT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SO PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED. FOR NOW CONTINUED
WITH A MODEL BLEND ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TONIGHT UNTIL SOMETIME
AFTER 08Z. THEN...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
EVENING LBF SOUNDING SHOWS A UNIFORMLY MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. USING THE EQUIVALENT DEWPOINT...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
FOG FOR THE LBF AREA WITH TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW 52F. ALSO...THE
HOURLY REFRESH CYCLE SHOWS LOW VISIBILITY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
SWATH FROM BUB...THROUGH LBF AND OGA...TO IML. BECAUSE OF THE RIVER
AND WETLANDS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THOSE AREAS WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY...ABOUT 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY...THAT THE VISIBILITY AT
LBF COULD DECREASE TO 1/2SM OR LESS. STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE
EVENING MODEL RUN SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. FOR LBF THEN...WE WILL USE
1SM BCFG WITH A FIELD THRESHOLD TEMPO 1/2SM FG VV002. BOTH
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE HOURLY REFRESH MODELS INDICATE THE
FOG LIFTING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE OR BY 14Z. ONE FACTOR LIMITING OUR
CONFIDENCE IS THE WIND. IF IT DOES NOT DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KLBF WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY BETWEEN
14Z-15Z TO VFR. A RETURN TO AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z/18TH. PATCHY FOG AT KVTN SHOULD QUICKLY END WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ038-057-059-070-071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 170903
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
403 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
REPORTING LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT THE KLBF
ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS CONTINUED FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOW VISIBILITY 1/4-1/2SM AT KLBF
AND KBBW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. CURRENTLY THE DENSE
FOG IS VERY LOCALIZED AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT INDICATE A CONCERN
YET. HOWEVER...IF FOG BECOMES DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO ALBERTA
CANADA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST INFLUENCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM IDAHO AND OREGON INTO
COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS OF 55 TO
60 GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST H85 TEMPS OF 27C IN FAR SWRN
NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 90 FAR SWRN ZONES WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S MUCH OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...HIGH SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 80.

A WARM FRONT WILL ROUGHLY EXTEND THROUGH A MCCOOK THROUGH EMPORIA
KS LINE TONIGHT. 0-3KM CAPES AS HIGH AS 1200 J/KG WILL BE
AVAILABLE AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO LBF AND BBW. CONTINUED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 03Z FOR MUCH OF
THE SERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...A SATURATED LOW LEVEL (1000-850MB)
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY LAYER H8-H6. SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEBR
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS CLOUDS...FOG AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO START THE DAY. VERY MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH UPSLOPE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE WEST. QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
MORNING SHOULD BE CLOUDY THEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERN ZONES LIKELY WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON...OR LATER
SO TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 70S. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PANHANDLE AND FAR
SW NEB TO CLEAR AND WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...MAYBE 90. MODELS
VARY FOR THE 83 CORRIDOR CLEARING. THE NAM KEEPS CLOUDS IN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH 2M TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...MEANWHILE
MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 80S. FORECAST TRENDS TEMPS DOWN AS MOS
DOES KEEP SKIES OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
DOWN AS LOW OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BL MOISTURE DECENT AND WILL
HELP HOLD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AFTER A WARM
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KS...POSSIBLE SEEING SOME MOISTURE INTO SRN NEB. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

TO START OFF NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW...WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A WESTERN RIDGE INTO SW CANADA.
A CLOSED LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL CA ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
WILL BRING A SLGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THE LOW
IS NOT IN THE MEAN FLOW AND MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING IT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SO PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED. FOR NOW CONTINUED
WITH A MODEL BLEND ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TONIGHT UNTIL SOMETIME
AFTER 08Z. THEN...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
EVENING LBF SOUNDING SHOWS A UNIFORMLY MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. USING THE EQUIVALENT DEWPOINT...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
FOG FOR THE LBF AREA WITH TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW 52F. ALSO...THE
HOURLY REFRESH CYCLE SHOWS LOW VISIBILITY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
SWATH FROM BUB...THROUGH LBF AND OGA...TO IML. BECAUSE OF THE RIVER
AND WETLANDS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THOSE AREAS WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY...ABOUT 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY...THAT THE VISIBILITY AT
LBF COULD DECREASE TO 1/2SM OR LESS. STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE
EVENING MODEL RUN SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. FOR LBF THEN...WE WILL USE
1SM BCFG WITH A FIELD THRESHOLD TEMPO 1/2SM FG VV002. BOTH
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE HOURLY REFRESH MODELS INDICATE THE
FOG LIFTING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE OR BY 14Z. ONE FACTOR LIMITING OUR
CONFIDENCE IS THE WIND. IF IT DOES NOT DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS LOWER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 170903
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
403 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
REPORTING LIGHT FOG 3-5SM WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG AT THE KLBF
ASOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS CONTINUED FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOW VISIBILITY 1/4-1/2SM AT KLBF
AND KBBW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z. CURRENTLY THE DENSE
FOG IS VERY LOCALIZED AND AREA WEBCAMS DO NOT INDICATE A CONCERN
YET. HOWEVER...IF FOG BECOMES DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO ALBERTA
CANADA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST INFLUENCING WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM IDAHO AND OREGON INTO
COLORADO TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP A LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS OF 55 TO
60 GOING TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED
INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST H85 TEMPS OF 27C IN FAR SWRN
NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 90 FAR SWRN ZONES WITH MID AND
UPPER 80S MUCH OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...HIGH SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 80.

A WARM FRONT WILL ROUGHLY EXTEND THROUGH A MCCOOK THROUGH EMPORIA
KS LINE TONIGHT. 0-3KM CAPES AS HIGH AS 1200 J/KG WILL BE
AVAILABLE AND EXTEND NORTHWEST INTO LBF AND BBW. CONTINUED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 03Z FOR MUCH OF
THE SERN ZONES. IN ADDITION...A SATURATED LOW LEVEL (1000-850MB)
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A DRY LAYER H8-H6. SOUNDINGS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEBR
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS CLOUDS...FOG AND SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO START THE DAY. VERY MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH UPSLOPE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE WEST. QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
MORNING SHOULD BE CLOUDY THEN CLEARING FROM THE WEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERN ZONES LIKELY WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON...OR LATER
SO TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE 70S. HIGHER CONFIDENCE PANHANDLE AND FAR
SW NEB TO CLEAR AND WARM WELL INTO THE 80S...MAYBE 90. MODELS
VARY FOR THE 83 CORRIDOR CLEARING. THE NAM KEEPS CLOUDS IN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH 2M TEMPS CLOSER TO 70...MEANWHILE
MOS GUIDANCE IS IN THE 80S. FORECAST TRENDS TEMPS DOWN AS MOS
DOES KEEP SKIES OVERCAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY
DOWN AS LOW OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...BL MOISTURE DECENT AND WILL
HELP HOLD TEMPS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. AFTER A WARM
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

OVER THE WEEKEND REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL TRACK ACROSS
KS...POSSIBLE SEEING SOME MOISTURE INTO SRN NEB. CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THE FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA. TEMPS COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

TO START OFF NEXT WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW...WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A WESTERN RIDGE INTO SW CANADA.
A CLOSED LOW LIFTS FROM CENTRAL CA ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
WILL BRING A SLGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE WESTERN ZONES. THE LOW
IS NOT IN THE MEAN FLOW AND MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING IT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SO PRECIP MAY BE DELAYED. FOR NOW CONTINUED
WITH A MODEL BLEND ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TONIGHT UNTIL SOMETIME
AFTER 08Z. THEN...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
EVENING LBF SOUNDING SHOWS A UNIFORMLY MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. USING THE EQUIVALENT DEWPOINT...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
FOG FOR THE LBF AREA WITH TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW 52F. ALSO...THE
HOURLY REFRESH CYCLE SHOWS LOW VISIBILITY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
SWATH FROM BUB...THROUGH LBF AND OGA...TO IML. BECAUSE OF THE RIVER
AND WETLANDS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THOSE AREAS WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY...ABOUT 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY...THAT THE VISIBILITY AT
LBF COULD DECREASE TO 1/2SM OR LESS. STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE
EVENING MODEL RUN SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. FOR LBF THEN...WE WILL USE
1SM BCFG WITH A FIELD THRESHOLD TEMPO 1/2SM FG VV002. BOTH
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE HOURLY REFRESH MODELS INDICATE THE
FOG LIFTING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE OR BY 14Z. ONE FACTOR LIMITING OUR
CONFIDENCE IS THE WIND. IF IT DOES NOT DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS LOWER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 170438
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. FURTHER WEST...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE MIDWEST...TO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM UTAH...NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEST OF THE
RIDGE...A TROUGH WAS PRESENT OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO SRN TX...WHILE TS
ODILE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. CLOUD
COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE SRN HALF
OF AZ AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LOW CLOUDS...WHICH WERE LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HAD
PUSHED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM CDT...THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ON THEIR WESTERN FLANK AND
WERE LOCATED OVER CUSTER...GARFIELD...WHEELER AND SOUTHERN HOLT
COUNTIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA/NRN
MO CURRENTLY. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES. AS OF 2 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 66 AT BROKEN BOW UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...TO 79 AT IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE BOUNDAY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM THE CURRENT RAPID REFRESH
MODELS INDICATES FOG WILL BE A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THAT
THINKING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRAWS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SOME CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH...BUT A CLOSE INSPECTION OF BUFKIT DATA
INDICATES THAT SATURATED LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW...EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 300 FEET AGL. WITH THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH STRATUS...BUT SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL NOSE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM MODEL INDICATING H850 MB TEMPS NEARING 27C BY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF THIS WARMER AIR WILL EASILY MIX TO THE
SURFACE...SO WILL BOOST HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WILL LEAD TO SERLY AND EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SERLY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS. THIS
UPSLOPING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS...THE MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. A 700 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CALCULATED
LI`S FROM THE 800MB LEVEL RANGE FROM -4 TO -6C OVERNIGHT SO PLENTY
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
INHERITED FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRAS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHIFT THIS ACTIVITY EAST THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WITH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED IN THE EAST INVOF A
WARM FRONT...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF MIDDLE 70S. FURTHER
WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...SOME HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN SD WILL DEEPEN RESULTING IN
INCREASED SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING
EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO NEAR 90. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO STRIP THESE
FROM THE FORECAST...BASED ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND THE DEGREE OF CAPPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. I DID GO AHEAD AND LINGER POPS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND WRN KS BY
TUESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRAS IN THE FAR SWRN
CWA. HIGHS SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TONIGHT UNTIL SOMETIME
AFTER 08Z. THEN...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
EVENING LBF SOUNDING SHOWS A UNIFORMLY MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. USING THE EQUIVALENT DEWPOINT...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
FOG FOR THE LBF AREA WITH TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW 52F. ALSO...THE
HOURLY REFRESH CYCLE SHOWS LOW VISIBILITY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
SWATH FROM BUB...THROUGH LBF AND OGA...TO IML. BECAUSE OF THE RIVER
AND WETLANDS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THOSE AREAS WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY...ABOUT 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY...THAT THE VISIBILITY AT
LBF COULD DECREASE TO 1/2SM OR LESS. STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE
EVENING MODEL RUN SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. FOR LBF THEN...WE WILL USE
1SM BCFG WITH A FIELD THRESHOLD TEMPO 1/2SM FG VV002. BOTH
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE HOURLY REFRESH MODELS INDICATE THE
FOG LIFTING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE OR BY 14Z. ONE FACTOR LIMITING OUR
CONFIDENCE IS THE WIND. IF IT DOES NOT DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS LOWER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 170438
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. FURTHER WEST...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE MIDWEST...TO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM UTAH...NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEST OF THE
RIDGE...A TROUGH WAS PRESENT OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO SRN TX...WHILE TS
ODILE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. CLOUD
COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE SRN HALF
OF AZ AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LOW CLOUDS...WHICH WERE LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HAD
PUSHED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM CDT...THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ON THEIR WESTERN FLANK AND
WERE LOCATED OVER CUSTER...GARFIELD...WHEELER AND SOUTHERN HOLT
COUNTIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA/NRN
MO CURRENTLY. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES. AS OF 2 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 66 AT BROKEN BOW UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...TO 79 AT IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE BOUNDAY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM THE CURRENT RAPID REFRESH
MODELS INDICATES FOG WILL BE A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THAT
THINKING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRAWS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SOME CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH...BUT A CLOSE INSPECTION OF BUFKIT DATA
INDICATES THAT SATURATED LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW...EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 300 FEET AGL. WITH THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH STRATUS...BUT SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL NOSE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM MODEL INDICATING H850 MB TEMPS NEARING 27C BY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF THIS WARMER AIR WILL EASILY MIX TO THE
SURFACE...SO WILL BOOST HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WILL LEAD TO SERLY AND EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SERLY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS. THIS
UPSLOPING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS...THE MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. A 700 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CALCULATED
LI`S FROM THE 800MB LEVEL RANGE FROM -4 TO -6C OVERNIGHT SO PLENTY
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
INHERITED FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRAS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHIFT THIS ACTIVITY EAST THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WITH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED IN THE EAST INVOF A
WARM FRONT...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF MIDDLE 70S. FURTHER
WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...SOME HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN SD WILL DEEPEN RESULTING IN
INCREASED SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING
EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO NEAR 90. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO STRIP THESE
FROM THE FORECAST...BASED ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND THE DEGREE OF CAPPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. I DID GO AHEAD AND LINGER POPS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND WRN KS BY
TUESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRAS IN THE FAR SWRN
CWA. HIGHS SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TONIGHT UNTIL SOMETIME
AFTER 08Z. THEN...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
EVENING LBF SOUNDING SHOWS A UNIFORMLY MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. USING THE EQUIVALENT DEWPOINT...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
FOG FOR THE LBF AREA WITH TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW 52F. ALSO...THE
HOURLY REFRESH CYCLE SHOWS LOW VISIBILITY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
SWATH FROM BUB...THROUGH LBF AND OGA...TO IML. BECAUSE OF THE RIVER
AND WETLANDS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THOSE AREAS WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 1SM. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY...ABOUT 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY...THAT THE VISIBILITY AT
LBF COULD DECREASE TO 1/2SM OR LESS. STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE
EVENING MODEL RUN SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. FOR LBF THEN...WE WILL USE
1SM BCFG WITH A FIELD THRESHOLD TEMPO 1/2SM FG VV002. BOTH
CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE HOURLY REFRESH MODELS INDICATE THE
FOG LIFTING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE OR BY 14Z. ONE FACTOR LIMITING OUR
CONFIDENCE IS THE WIND. IF IT DOES NOT DROP TO LESS THAN 5KT...THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG IS LOWER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 170258
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
958 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. FURTHER WEST...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE MIDWEST...TO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM UTAH...NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEST OF THE
RIDGE...A TROUGH WAS PRESENT OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO SRN TX...WHILE TS
ODILE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. CLOUD
COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE SRN HALF
OF AZ AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LOW CLOUDS...WHICH WERE LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HAD
PUSHED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM CDT...THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ON THEIR WESTERN FLANK AND
WERE LOCATED OVER CUSTER...GARFIELD...WHEELER AND SOUTHERN HOLT
COUNTIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA/NRN
MO CURRENTLY. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES. AS OF 2 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 66 AT BROKEN BOW UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...TO 79 AT IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE BOUNDAY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM THE CURRENT RAPID REFRESH
MODELS INDICATES FOG WILL BE A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THAT
THINKING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRAWS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SOME CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH...BUT A CLOSE INSPECTION OF BUFKIT DATA
INDICATES THAT SATURATED LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW...EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 300 FEET AGL. WITH THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH STRATUS...BUT SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL NOSE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM MODEL INDICATING H850 MB TEMPS NEARING 27C BY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF THIS WARMER AIR WILL EASILY MIX TO THE
SURFACE...SO WILL BOOST HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WILL LEAD TO SERLY AND EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SERLY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS. THIS
UPSLOPING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS...THE MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. A 700 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CALCULATED
LI`S FROM THE 800MB LEVEL RANGE FROM -4 TO -6C OVERNIGHT SO PLENTY
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
INHERITED FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRAS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHIFT THIS ACTIVITY EAST THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WITH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED IN THE EAST INVOF A
WARM FRONT...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF MIDDLE 70S. FURTHER
WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...SOME HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN SD WILL DEEPEN RESULTING IN
INCREASED SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING
EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO NEAR 90. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO STRIP THESE
FROM THE FORECAST...BASED ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND THE DEGREE OF CAPPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. I DID GO AHEAD AND LINGER POPS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND WRN KS BY
TUESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRAS IN THE FAR SWRN
CWA. HIGHS SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
UPDATED AT 955 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TONIGHT UNTIL SOMETIME
AFTER 08Z. THEN...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE
EVENING LBF SOUNDING SHOWS A UNIFORMLY MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. USING THE EQUIVALENT DEWPOINT...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
FOG FOR THE LBF AREA WITH TEMPERATURE GOING BELOW 52F. ALSO...THE
HOURLY REFRESH CYCLE SHOWS LOW VISIBILITY IN A RELATIVELY NARROW
SWATH FROM BUB...THROUGH LBF AND OGA...TO IML. BECAUSE OF THE RIVER
AND WETLANDS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...THOSE AREAS WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM. AS A RESULT...WE WILL INCLUDE
1SM WITH BCFG IN THE LBF TERMINAL FORECAST 10-14Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 162325
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. FURTHER WEST...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE MIDWEST...TO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM UTAH...NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEST OF THE
RIDGE...A TROUGH WAS PRESENT OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO SRN TX...WHILE TS
ODILE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. CLOUD
COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE SRN HALF
OF AZ AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LOW CLOUDS...WHICH WERE LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HAD
PUSHED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM CDT...THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ON THEIR WESTERN FLANK AND
WERE LOCATED OVER CUSTER...GARFIELD...WHEELER AND SOUTHERN HOLT
COUNTIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA/NRN
MO CURRENTLY. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES. AS OF 2 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 66 AT BROKEN BOW UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...TO 79 AT IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRAWS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SOME CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH...BUT A CLOSE INSPECTION OF BUFKIT DATA
INDICATES THAT SATURATED LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW...EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 300 FEET AGL. WITH THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH STRATUS...BUT SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL NOSE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM MODEL INDICATING H850 MB TEMPS NEARING 27C BY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF THIS WARMER AIR WILL EASILY MIX TO THE
SURFACE...SO WILL BOOST HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WILL LEAD TO SERLY AND EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SERLY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS. THIS
UPSLOPING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS...THE MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. A 700 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CALCULATED
LI`S FROM THE 800MB LEVEL RANGE FROM -4 TO -6C OVERNIGHT SO PLENTY
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
INHERITED FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRAS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHIFT THIS ACTIVITY EAST THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WITH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED IN THE EAST INVOF A
WARM FRONT...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF MIDDLE 70S. FURTHER
WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...SOME HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN SD WILL DEEPEN RESULTING IN
INCREASED SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING
EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO NEAR 90. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO STRIP THESE
FROM THE FORECAST...BASED ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND THE DEGREE OF CAPPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. I DID GO AHEAD AND LINGER POPS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND WRN KS BY
TUESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRAS IN THE FAR SWRN
CWA. HIGHS SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT UNTIL SOMETIME
AFTER 08Z. THEN...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AND ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS... PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY...BECAUSE OF THE RIVER AND
WETLANDS...WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL INCLUDE 2SM WITH BCFG IN THE LBF TERMINAL
FORECAST 10-14Z. AFTER THAT...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 162005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. FURTHER WEST...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE MIDWEST...TO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM UTAH...NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEST OF THE
RIDGE...A TROUGH WAS PRESENT OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO SRN TX...WHILE TS
ODILE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. CLOUD
COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE SRN HALF
OF AZ AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LOW CLOUDS...WHICH WERE LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HAD
PUSHED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM CDT...THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ON THEIR WESTERN FLANK AND
WERE LOCATED OVER CUSTER...GARFIELD...WHEELER AND SOUTHERN HOLT
COUNTIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA/NRN
MO CURRENTLY. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES. AS OF 2 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 66 AT BROKEN BOW UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...TO 79 AT IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRAWS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SOME CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH...BUT A CLOSE INSPECTION OF BUFKIT DATA
INDICATES THAT SATURATED LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW...EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 300 FEET AGL. WITH THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH STRATUS...BUT SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL NOSE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM MODEL INDICATING H850 MB TEMPS NEARING 27C BY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF THIS WARMER AIR WILL EASILY MIX TO THE
SURFACE...SO WILL BOOST HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WILL LEAD TO SERLY AND EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SERLY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS. THIS
UPSLOPING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS...THE MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. A 700 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CALCULATED
LI`S FROM THE 800MB LEVEL RANGE FROM -4 TO -6C OVERNIGHT SO PLENTY
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
INHERITED FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRAS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHIFT THIS ACTIVITY EAST THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WITH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED IN THE EAST INVOF A
WARM FRONT...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF MIDDLE 70S. FURTHER
WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...SOME HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN SD WILL DEEPEN RESULTING IN
INCREASED SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING
EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO NEAR 90. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO STRIP THESE
FROM THE FORECAST...BASED ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND THE DEGREE OF CAPPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. I DID GO AHEAD AND LINGER POPS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND WRN KS BY
TUESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRAS IN THE FAR SWRN
CWA. HIGHS SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TONIGHT. MOST SHORT TERM MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY
SOMEWHAT FROM THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF THE
12Z BUFKIT PROFILE DATA AT KLBF INDICATES A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 200 FEET AGL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FEEL THAT THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT
THINKING IT WILL BE THAT WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
HAZE/MIST AND WILL BRING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM FOR A TIME
TUESDAY MORNING AT THE KLBF TAF SITE. AGAIN THE SATURATED LAYER IS
VERY SHALLOW...AND STATUS/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KLBF 162005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING HAD A CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. FURTHER WEST...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE MIDWEST...TO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. RIDGING
EXTENDED FROM UTAH...NWD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEST OF THE
RIDGE...A TROUGH WAS PRESENT OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO SRN TX...WHILE TS
ODILE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. CLOUD
COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH ODILE HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE SRN HALF
OF AZ AND NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...LOW CLOUDS...WHICH WERE LOCATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HAD
PUSHED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
AS OF 3 PM CDT...THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ON THEIR WESTERN FLANK AND
WERE LOCATED OVER CUSTER...GARFIELD...WHEELER AND SOUTHERN HOLT
COUNTIES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA/NRN
MO CURRENTLY. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS PRESENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN WYOMING...THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...SRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES. AS OF 2 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 66 AT BROKEN BOW UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES...TO 79 AT IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW DRAWS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SOME CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT
AS THE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH...BUT A CLOSE INSPECTION OF BUFKIT DATA
INDICATES THAT SATURATED LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW...EXTENDING FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 300 FEET AGL. WITH THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH STRATUS...BUT SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WARM AIR ALOFT WILL NOSE INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY...WITH NAM MODEL INDICATING H850 MB TEMPS NEARING 27C BY
AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF THIS WARMER AIR WILL EASILY MIX TO THE
SURFACE...SO WILL BOOST HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEGREES INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WILL LEAD TO SERLY AND EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE SERLY AND EASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS. THIS
UPSLOPING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS...THE MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. A 700 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CALCULATED
LI`S FROM THE 800MB LEVEL RANGE FROM -4 TO -6C OVERNIGHT SO PLENTY
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
INHERITED FCST CONTINUES TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRAS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SHIFT THIS ACTIVITY EAST THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS. ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WITH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED IN THE EAST INVOF A
WARM FRONT...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF MIDDLE 70S. FURTHER
WEST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...SOME HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN SD WILL DEEPEN RESULTING IN
INCREASED SRLY WINDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT MIXING
EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO AROUND 60 FORECAST. ON FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NRN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S TO NEAR 90. INHERITED
FORECAST HAD SOME MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO STRIP THESE
FROM THE FORECAST...BASED ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND THE DEGREE OF CAPPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE THE
DAKOTAS...FORCING THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY. INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. I DID GO AHEAD AND LINGER POPS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COOLER...BUT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL SET IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE SWRN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PCPN OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND WRN KS BY
TUESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRAS IN THE FAR SWRN
CWA. HIGHS SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TONIGHT. MOST SHORT TERM MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY
SOMEWHAT FROM THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF THE
12Z BUFKIT PROFILE DATA AT KLBF INDICATES A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 200 FEET AGL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FEEL THAT THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT
THINKING IT WILL BE THAT WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
HAZE/MIST AND WILL BRING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM FOR A TIME
TUESDAY MORNING AT THE KLBF TAF SITE. AGAIN THE SATURATED LAYER IS
VERY SHALLOW...AND STATUS/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...TAYLOR









000
FXUS63 KLBF 161811
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
111 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
IS BRINGING LOW 50S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN CO AND UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 IN THE NEBR PNHDL. NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS IS NEAR
SAINT FRANCIS KS. SOME BROKEN MID CLOUDINESS NEAR 15K FEET FROM ERN
WY INTO WRN/SWRN NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
INFLUENCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WRN NEBR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST
H85 TEMPS OF 22C IN FAR SWRN NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FAR SWRN ZONES AND THE ERN PNHDL WITH UPPER 70S MUCH OF WRN
SANDHILLS. FURTHER EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.

THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE OGA...IML...LBF AREAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME MID LEVELS CLOUDINESS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z INTO WRN
NEBR. LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PROGGED BY THE MID-RANGE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. UNDER A WAA
REGIME...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT OF NEGATIVE LI/S /-3 TO -6C/
STRETCHING FROM FRONTIER COUNTY WELL INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR TO PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MILD CONCERN
OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED STORMS COVERED WELL...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
IMPLEMENTED. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WARMER AIR SURGES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR WEST BOTH DAYS...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS OUR EAST AS MORNING STRATUS AND A GREATER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A UPPER 70 READING OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY. PERIODIC STRATUS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH TO WARM LOWS EACH NIGHT CWA WIDE...SUCH THAT LOWS
IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE 50S BY
WORK WEEKS END.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE OUTER
PERIODS IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST
OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.  THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY.  SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING IS THE OFF AND ON AGAIN INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.  THE GFS REMAINS FIXED ON THIS
INTERACTION MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH.  WITH
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT...BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TONIGHT. MOST SHORT TERM MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY
SOMEWHAT FROM THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF THE
12Z BUFKIT PROFILE DATA AT KLBF INDICATES A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 200 FEET AGL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FEEL THAT THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT
THINKING IT WILL BE THAT WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
HAZE/MIST AND WILL BRING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM FOR A TIME
TUESDAY MORNING AT THE KLBF TAF SITE. AGAIN THE SATURATED LAYER IS
VERY SHALLOW...AND STATUS/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR





000
FXUS63 KLBF 161811
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
111 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
IS BRINGING LOW 50S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN CO AND UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 IN THE NEBR PNHDL. NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS IS NEAR
SAINT FRANCIS KS. SOME BROKEN MID CLOUDINESS NEAR 15K FEET FROM ERN
WY INTO WRN/SWRN NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
INFLUENCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WRN NEBR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST
H85 TEMPS OF 22C IN FAR SWRN NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FAR SWRN ZONES AND THE ERN PNHDL WITH UPPER 70S MUCH OF WRN
SANDHILLS. FURTHER EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.

THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE OGA...IML...LBF AREAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME MID LEVELS CLOUDINESS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z INTO WRN
NEBR. LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PROGGED BY THE MID-RANGE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. UNDER A WAA
REGIME...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT OF NEGATIVE LI/S /-3 TO -6C/
STRETCHING FROM FRONTIER COUNTY WELL INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR TO PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MILD CONCERN
OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED STORMS COVERED WELL...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
IMPLEMENTED. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WARMER AIR SURGES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR WEST BOTH DAYS...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS OUR EAST AS MORNING STRATUS AND A GREATER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A UPPER 70 READING OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY. PERIODIC STRATUS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH TO WARM LOWS EACH NIGHT CWA WIDE...SUCH THAT LOWS
IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE 50S BY
WORK WEEKS END.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE OUTER
PERIODS IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST
OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.  THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY.  SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING IS THE OFF AND ON AGAIN INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.  THE GFS REMAINS FIXED ON THIS
INTERACTION MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH.  WITH
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT...BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG TONIGHT. MOST SHORT TERM MODEL SIMULATIONS HAVE BACKED AWAY
SOMEWHAT FROM THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF THE
12Z BUFKIT PROFILE DATA AT KLBF INDICATES A VERY SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 200 FEET AGL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FEEL THAT THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT
THINKING IT WILL BE THAT WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
HAZE/MIST AND WILL BRING THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM FOR A TIME
TUESDAY MORNING AT THE KLBF TAF SITE. AGAIN THE SATURATED LAYER IS
VERY SHALLOW...AND STATUS/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR






000
FXUS63 KLBF 161126
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
IS BRINGING LOW 50S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN CO AND UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 IN THE NEBR PNHDL. NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS IS NEAR
SAINT FRANCIS KS. SOME BROKEN MID CLOUDINESS NEAR 15K FEET FROM ERN
WY INTO WRN/SWRN NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
INFLUENCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WRN NEBR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST
H85 TEMPS OF 22C IN FAR SWRN NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FAR SWRN ZONES AND THE ERN PNHDL WITH UPPER 70S MUCH OF WRN
SANDHILLS. FURTHER EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.

THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE OGA...IML...LBF AREAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME MID LEVELS CLOUDINESS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z INTO WRN
NEBR. LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PROGGED BY THE MID-RANGE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. UNDER A WAA
REGIME...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT OF NEGATIVE LI/S /-3 TO -6C/
STRETCHING FROM FRONTIER COUNTY WELL INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR TO PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MILD CONCERN
OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED STORMS COVERED WELL...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
IMPLEMENTED. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WARMER AIR SURGES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR WEST BOTH DAYS...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS OUR EAST AS MORNING STRATUS AND A GREATER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A UPPER 70 READING OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY. PERIODIC STRATUS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH TO WARM LOWS EACH NIGHT CWA WIDE...SUCH THAT LOWS
IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE 50S BY
WORK WEEKS END.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE OUTER
PERIODS IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST
OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.  THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY.  SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING IS THE OFF AND ON AGAIN INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.  THE GFS REMAINS FIXED ON THIS
INTERACTION MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH.  WITH
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT...BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR HE SURFACE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT TO THE KLBF TERMINAL. HAVE INTRODUCED
2SM BR SCT005 AFTER 10Z. VISIBILITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
LOWER AND WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING EXCEPTED AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG











000
FXUS63 KLBF 161126
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
IS BRINGING LOW 50S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN CO AND UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 IN THE NEBR PNHDL. NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS IS NEAR
SAINT FRANCIS KS. SOME BROKEN MID CLOUDINESS NEAR 15K FEET FROM ERN
WY INTO WRN/SWRN NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
INFLUENCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WRN NEBR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST
H85 TEMPS OF 22C IN FAR SWRN NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FAR SWRN ZONES AND THE ERN PNHDL WITH UPPER 70S MUCH OF WRN
SANDHILLS. FURTHER EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.

THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE OGA...IML...LBF AREAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME MID LEVELS CLOUDINESS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z INTO WRN
NEBR. LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PROGGED BY THE MID-RANGE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. UNDER A WAA
REGIME...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT OF NEGATIVE LI/S /-3 TO -6C/
STRETCHING FROM FRONTIER COUNTY WELL INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR TO PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MILD CONCERN
OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED STORMS COVERED WELL...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
IMPLEMENTED. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WARMER AIR SURGES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR WEST BOTH DAYS...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS OUR EAST AS MORNING STRATUS AND A GREATER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A UPPER 70 READING OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY. PERIODIC STRATUS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH TO WARM LOWS EACH NIGHT CWA WIDE...SUCH THAT LOWS
IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE 50S BY
WORK WEEKS END.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE OUTER
PERIODS IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST
OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.  THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY.  SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING IS THE OFF AND ON AGAIN INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.  THE GFS REMAINS FIXED ON THIS
INTERACTION MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH.  WITH
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT...BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO MOST OF TONIGHT. INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR HE SURFACE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT TO THE KLBF TERMINAL. HAVE INTRODUCED
2SM BR SCT005 AFTER 10Z. VISIBILITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
LOWER AND WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIFR CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING EXCEPTED AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG










000
FXUS63 KLBF 160830
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
IS BRINGING LOW 50S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN CO AND UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 IN THE NEBR PNHDL. NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS IS NEAR
SAINT FRANCIS KS. SOME BROKEN MID CLOUDINESS NEAR 15K FEET FROM ERN
WY INTO WRN/SWRN NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
INFLUENCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WRN NEBR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST
H85 TEMPS OF 22C IN FAR SWRN NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FAR SWRN ZONES AND THE ERN PNHDL WITH UPPER 70S MUCH OF WRN
SANDHILLS. FURTHER EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.

THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE OGA...IML...LBF AREAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME MID LEVELS CLOUDINESS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z INTO WRN
NEBR. LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PROGGED BY THE MID-RANGE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. UNDER A WAA
REGIME...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT OF NEGATIVE LI/S /-3 TO -6C/
STRETCHING FROM FRONTIER COUNTY WELL INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR TO PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MILD CONCERN
OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED STORMS COVERED WELL...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
IMPLEMENTED. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WARMER AIR SURGES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR WEST BOTH DAYS...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS OUR EAST AS MORNING STRATUS AND A GREATER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A UPPER 70 READING OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY. PERIODIC STRATUS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH TO WARM LOWS EACH NIGHT CWA WIDE...SUCH THAT LOWS
IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE 50S BY
WORK WEEKS END.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE OUTER
PERIODS IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST
OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.  THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY.  SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING IS THE OFF AND ON AGAIN INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.  THE GFS REMAINS FIXED ON THIS
INTERACTION MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH.  WITH
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT...BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE STRATUS IN
KANSAS HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE SIGN OF ADVANCING NORTHWARD...AND
CEILINGS HAVE YET TO DROP BELOW 3000 FEET OR MVFR CONDITIONS. HAVE
UNWOUND THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUD IMPACT AT KLBF AND HAVE COMPLETELY
REMOVED AT KVTN. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT NOW APPEARS THAT
THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KLBF
TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KLBF 160830
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
IS BRINGING LOW 50S DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS ERN CO AND UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 IN THE NEBR PNHDL. NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRATUS IS NEAR
SAINT FRANCIS KS. SOME BROKEN MID CLOUDINESS NEAR 15K FEET FROM ERN
WY INTO WRN/SWRN NEBR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A FALL LIKE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY CONTRASTED BY AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
INFLUENCING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BEYOND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WRN NEBR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE TRANSPORTED INTO WRN NEBR...WITH THE WARMEST
H85 TEMPS OF 22C IN FAR SWRN NEBR. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S
FAR SWRN ZONES AND THE ERN PNHDL WITH UPPER 70S MUCH OF WRN
SANDHILLS. FURTHER EAST...AT ONL AND BUB...COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.

THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE OGA...IML...LBF AREAS. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME MID LEVELS CLOUDINESS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z INTO WRN
NEBR. LOWS FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL PROGGED BY THE MID-RANGE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. UNDER A WAA
REGIME...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT OF NEGATIVE LI/S /-3 TO -6C/
STRETCHING FROM FRONTIER COUNTY WELL INTO THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS. A
STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE THREAT AREA INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR TO PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE
CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MILD CONCERN
OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED STORMS COVERED WELL...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
IMPLEMENTED. TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WARMER AIR SURGES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL ARE LIKELY
ACROSS OUR WEST BOTH DAYS...BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
ACROSS OUR EAST AS MORNING STRATUS AND A GREATER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND IS EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
80S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS
OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...A COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A UPPER 70 READING OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY. PERIODIC STRATUS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK WITH INCREASING THERMAL ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH TO WARM LOWS EACH NIGHT CWA WIDE...SUCH THAT LOWS
IN THE 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE 50S BY
WORK WEEKS END.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE OUTER
PERIODS IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.  A
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPRESS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST
OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.  THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY.  SOMEWHAT
INTERESTING IS THE OFF AND ON AGAIN INTERACTION OF THIS FRONT WITH
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE.  THE GFS REMAINS FIXED ON THIS
INTERACTION MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...THE ECMWF HAS ONCE
AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST. WILL NEED TO WATCH.  WITH
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED...HIGHS AND LOWS WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT...BUT
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE STRATUS IN
KANSAS HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE SIGN OF ADVANCING NORTHWARD...AND
CEILINGS HAVE YET TO DROP BELOW 3000 FEET OR MVFR CONDITIONS. HAVE
UNWOUND THE STRATUS/LOW CLOUD IMPACT AT KLBF AND HAVE COMPLETELY
REMOVED AT KVTN. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT NOW APPEARS THAT
THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KLBF
TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR









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