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000
FXUS63 KLBF 262345
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WAS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THIS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN REGION OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS BAND MAY WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIFT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW PRODUCTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING...AND EXPECT
AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15:1 TO 20:1 OR SO THUS FAR...AND EXPECT
THOSE RATIOS TO BE CLOSER TO 20:1 INTO THIS EVENING. SO AS THE
SECOND BAND OF SNOW LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA  WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THIS EVENING...EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL NOT INCREASE ANY THIS EVENING...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SLOWLY DECREASING. SO FORTUNATELY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL NOT
BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...AND
NO PLANS TO CHANGE HEADLINES.

DRIER AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SHOWN TO
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IS SOLID AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....WHICH ALL POINT
TO RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE TO START THE DAY
SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ATOP THE REGION.  BY SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DRAG A ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.  AT THIS POINT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...LESS FURTHER SOUTH.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AND UNDER A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOWS.  THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A 1050MB HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE FROM THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
CUTS OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURE WOULD THEN MODERATE SOME...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD LOOK TO COME MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EVEN WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUSLY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHTS ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.
APPROPRIATE WIND CHILLS HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS EVENING...ENDING IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THROUGH 08Z
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WITH VISBYS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3SM ARE LIKELY.
CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 1200 TO 2500 FT AGL THROUGH THIS TIME. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS AT 25000 FT AGL
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS OF 1500 FT AGL THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 10000 FT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ007>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 262345
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WAS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THIS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN REGION OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS BAND MAY WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIFT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW PRODUCTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING...AND EXPECT
AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15:1 TO 20:1 OR SO THUS FAR...AND EXPECT
THOSE RATIOS TO BE CLOSER TO 20:1 INTO THIS EVENING. SO AS THE
SECOND BAND OF SNOW LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA  WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THIS EVENING...EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL NOT INCREASE ANY THIS EVENING...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SLOWLY DECREASING. SO FORTUNATELY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL NOT
BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...AND
NO PLANS TO CHANGE HEADLINES.

DRIER AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SHOWN TO
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IS SOLID AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....WHICH ALL POINT
TO RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE TO START THE DAY
SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ATOP THE REGION.  BY SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DRAG A ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.  AT THIS POINT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...LESS FURTHER SOUTH.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AND UNDER A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOWS.  THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A 1050MB HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE FROM THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
CUTS OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURE WOULD THEN MODERATE SOME...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD LOOK TO COME MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EVEN WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUSLY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHTS ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.
APPROPRIATE WIND CHILLS HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS EVENING...ENDING IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THROUGH 08Z
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WITH VISBYS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3SM ARE LIKELY.
CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 1200 TO 2500 FT AGL THROUGH THIS TIME. SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED CIGS AT 25000 FT AGL
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS OF 1500 FT AGL THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AROUND 10000 FT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ007>010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 262130
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WAS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THIS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN REGION OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS BAND MAY WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIFT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW PRODUCTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING...AND EXPECT
AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15:1 TO 20:1 OR SO THUS FAR...AND EXPECT
THOSE RATIOS TO BE CLOSER TO 20:1 INTO THIS EVENING. SO AS THE
SECOND BAND OF SNOW LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA  WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THIS EVENING...EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL NOT INCREASE ANY THIS EVENING...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SLOWLY DECREASING. SO FORTUNATELY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL NOT
BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...AND
NO PLANS TO CHANGE HEADLINES.

DRIER AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SHOWN TO
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IS SOLID AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....WHICH ALL POINT
TO RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE TO START THE DAY
SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ATOP THE REGION.  BY SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DRAG A ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.  AT THIS POINT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...LESS FURTHER SOUTH.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AND UNDER A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOWS.  THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A 1050MB HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE FROM THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
CUTS OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURE WOULD THEN MODERATE SOME...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD LOOK TO COME MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EVEN WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUSLY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHTS ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.
APPROPRIATE WIND CHILLS HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KSNY TO KTIF TO
KANW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. WEST OF THIS
LINE...LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR









000
FXUS63 KLBF 262130
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WAS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THIS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN REGION OF
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM ONEILL TO NORTH PLATTE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS BAND MAY WEAKEN SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIFT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP SNOW PRODUCTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING...AND EXPECT
AT LEAST LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS HAVE BEEN ABOUT 15:1 TO 20:1 OR SO THUS FAR...AND EXPECT
THOSE RATIOS TO BE CLOSER TO 20:1 INTO THIS EVENING. SO AS THE
SECOND BAND OF SNOW LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA  WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THIS EVENING...EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING. AS A RESULT WINDS
WILL NOT INCREASE ANY THIS EVENING...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
SLOWLY DECREASING. SO FORTUNATELY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL NOT
BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...AND
NO PLANS TO CHANGE HEADLINES.

DRIER AIR WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURDAY...AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SHOWN TO
ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS REMAIN IS SOLID AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK....WHICH ALL POINT
TO RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS.  WEAK SUBSIDENCE TO START THE DAY
SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
ATOP THE REGION.  BY SUNDAY EVENING HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DRAG A ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  LIGHT SNOW IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.  AT THIS POINT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST A COUPLE INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...LESS FURTHER SOUTH.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AND UNDER A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SUBZERO LOWS.  THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A 1050MB HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  DOUBLE DIGIT SUB ZERO
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE FROM THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH
CUTS OFF A LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SW FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
TEMPERATURE WOULD THEN MODERATE SOME...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
SEASONAL NORMS.

THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD LOOK TO COME MONDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT EVEN WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DANGEROUSLY COLD APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
AND FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHTS ON MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY.
APPROPRIATE WIND CHILLS HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KSNY TO KTIF TO
KANW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. WEST OF THIS
LINE...LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261730
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KSNY TO KTIF TO
KANW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. WEST OF THIS
LINE...LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...TAYLOR







000
FXUS63 KLBF 261730
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A KSNY TO KTIF TO
KANW THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. WEST OF THIS
LINE...LITTLE SNOW IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE
IN ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010-025>029-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...TAYLOR








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261318 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
718 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR/MVFR ALONG HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF VALENTINE AND HIGHWAY 2 WEST OF
THEDFORD MAY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST SNOW LIFTS
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THIS AREA. MVFR FROM KIML-
KANW/KONL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS NM LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA PRODUCING SNOW. IFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z-06Z THIS EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB INCLUDING KLBF WITH
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 09Z. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 TONIGHT AS SNOW CONTINUES IN THIS AREA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ009-
010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ027>029-038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261318 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
718 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN THIS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR/MVFR ALONG HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF VALENTINE AND HIGHWAY 2 WEST OF
THEDFORD MAY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST SNOW LIFTS
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THIS AREA. MVFR FROM KIML-
KANW/KONL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS NM LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA PRODUCING SNOW. IFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z-06Z THIS EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB INCLUDING KLBF WITH
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 09Z. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 TONIGHT AS SNOW CONTINUES IN THIS AREA.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ009-
010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ027>029-038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 261127 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR/MVFR ALONG HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF VALENTINE AND HIGHWAY 2 WEST OF
THEDFORD MAY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST SNOW LIFTS
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THIS AREA. MVFR FROM KIML-
KANW/KONL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS NM LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA PRODUCING SNOW. IFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z-06Z THIS EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB INCLUDING KLBF WITH
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 09Z. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 TONIGHT AS SNOW CONTINUES IN THIS AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-
069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ027>029-038.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ009-
010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 261127 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
527 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

IFR/MVFR ALONG HIGHWAY 20 WEST OF VALENTINE AND HIGHWAY 2 WEST OF
THEDFORD MAY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING AS THE LAST SNOW LIFTS
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THIS AREA. MVFR FROM KIML-
KANW/KONL IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE ACROSS NM LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA PRODUCING SNOW. IFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z-06Z THIS EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB INCLUDING KLBF WITH
AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 09Z. MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 TONIGHT AS SNOW CONTINUES IN THIS AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-
069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ027>029-038.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ009-
010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 261005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
405 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SECOND WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 10Z. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FT AGL...HOWEVER...THEY MAY
DROP AS LOW AS 800 FT AGL WITH ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...AND WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. VISBYS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3SM WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER SOME MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 1SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 900 FT
AGL. A SECONDARY SHOT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1.5SM WITH CIGS AS
LOW AS 1000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 3SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 1200 FT AGL.
ON FRIDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS OF 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-
069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ027>029-038.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ009-
010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB










000
FXUS63 KLBF 261005
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
405 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATELLITE AND THE RUC INDICATE A CLOSED H500 MB LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM NRN
COLO INTO WY WHICH WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. A NEW
DEFORMATION BAND WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND THIS DISTURBANCE
IS FCST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KIML-KOGA-
KTIF-KONL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE BEST SNOWFALL...4 TO 6
INCHES...WOULD LIFT FROM HAYES CENTER TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH BURWELL AND ONEILL. ROCK AND HOLT COUNTY HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 06Z
TONIGHT.

THE MODEL QPF IS MOST TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER NORTH PLATTE AND MODEL
QPF SPREAD INCREASES EAST AND WEST OF THAT POINT. WE ARE EXPECTING
AROUND 0.25 TO 0.33 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS DISTURBANCE. THE GFS WAS
THE FIRST MODEL TWO DAYS AGO TO INDICATE A SEMI CLOSED H700MB LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE OTHER MODELS CARRIED
THIS DISTURBANCE EAST MOSTLY THROUGH KS AND SCNTL/ERN NEB. NOW ALL
THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT LIFTING THIS LOW THROUGH THE FCST AREA.
THERE IS SOME WOBBLING GOING ON WHICH IS NORMAL. THE RAP IS A BIT
EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BUT GIVEN THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS
YESTERDAY FAVORING THE CNTL PANHANDLE VS THE RAP WITH THE CHEYENNE
DIVIDE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS WINS THE FCST. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND A 15 TO 1 RATIO...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW APPEARS
LIKELY. THE 06Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE AMOUNTS FROM
KIML-KLBF-KBUB-KONL BUT SHOWS 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM KBBW-KBUB-KONL.
THIS IS A TREND IN THE MODELS FOR SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AND THE NAM
ACTUALLY HAS A CLOSED H700MB LOW OVER KGRI AT 03Z THIS EVENING WHILE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS SHOWS THIS LOW AS AN OPEN WAVE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES AND A CLOSED H700MB LOW WERE TO TRAVERSE THE FCST
AREA...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW WOULD INCREASE.

FOR NOW THE FCST IS FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 2 INCHES OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW A 700MB DRY INTRUSION. THIS DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE FCST AREA 12Z-15Z THIS MORNING AND A CHECK OF
THE NEDOR WEBSITE INDICATES ROADS IN CUSTER COUNTY ARE COMPLETELY
COVERED WITH ICE...UNTREATED AND NO TRAVEL IS ADVISED SO THE
ADVISORY WILL BEGIN EARLIER IN THIS AREA. WITH QUICKLY CHANGING
AND DETERIORATING CONDITIONS...WILL ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY TO THE NORTHEAST AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR WILL WORK EAST TO HIGHWAY 83 AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD DEALS WITH TEMPERATURES
AS A COLDER AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THEN WITH
AN INTRUDING ARCTIC COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH BRINGS AN
AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THAT IS COLDER YET ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WHICH LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WHICH DOES PROVIDE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH
KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE ON ITS WAY EAST OF THE REGION
WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL PASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SO
LOOKING FOR DECREASING WINDS...BUT AS IT WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP WINDS FROM
GOING CALM. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO COULD GET FAIRLY
COLD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOW COVER. MODIFIED
THE PRIOR FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.

WEAK RIDGING BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH
THE AIRMASS REMAINING COLD WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT -1C TO -6C
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. LOOKING FOR THE
ARCTIC FRONT MENTIONED EARLIER TO START PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHERE SOME DIFFERENCES LIE
THOUGH...MAINLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER TO MOVE THINGS THROUGH AND TOOK A SLOWER
APPROACH WHICH IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE SYSTEM IN
QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...MOVING TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THE WILL DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC
COAST AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PART OF THE
ORIGINAL SYSTEM WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND WILL
MOVE DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR -15C BY 18Z
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT SO
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH A GENERAL LACK OF
MOISTURE NOT EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS TO BE SIGNIFICANT. THE BEST LIFT
IS SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SO WILL KEEP THE TREND FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE
WESTERN HALF ON MONDAY...THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...QPF AMOUNTS DON/T LOOK TO BE TOO MUCH
SO AT MOST EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.

THE BIG PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL COME WITH THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS AREN/T QUITE AS COLD AS PRIOR RUNS WERE BUT
STILL DROP 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -20C OR COLDER FOR TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ITS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN...AS THE 26.00 RUN FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE NOW IS ONLY
GIVING A SPREAD OF 10 DEGREES FOR HIGHS RATHER THAN 30 AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE COLDEST PERIODS OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN GOING THROUGH THE WEEK IN HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COLD
AIR WILL BE SO ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD...AND BELOW NORMAL...HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL WILL REMAIN IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME AND HAVE JUST KEPT THE TEMPERATURE TREND GOING
DOWNWARD IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SECOND WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 10Z. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FT AGL...HOWEVER...THEY MAY
DROP AS LOW AS 800 FT AGL WITH ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...AND WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. VISBYS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3SM WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER SOME MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 1SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 900 FT
AGL. A SECONDARY SHOT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1.5SM WITH CIGS AS
LOW AS 1000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 3SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 1200 FT AGL.
ON FRIDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS OF 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ025-026-036-037-057>059-
069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NEZ027>029-038.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ006-
007.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ009-
010.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR NEZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB









000
FXUS63 KLBF 260535
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SANDHILLS IN AREA AND TEMPORALLY. SATELLITE
PICS INDICATE A NICE AREA OF STRATUS WITH LITTLE OR NO MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOTED. TIME HTS TAKEN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM IMPERIAL...TO NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE TO ONEILL...CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DECENT DRY LAYER AON 700 MB WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF
FZDZ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ASSESS THIS WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HRS...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER
SOUTH TO COVER FREEZING DRIZZLE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ON TWO DISTINCT
BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOW.  PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE
ADVISORY FOR YOUR AREA OF CONCERN.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES REVEAL A FAVORABLE PROFILE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.  THE NAM...GFS...RAP...AND OTHERS ALL AGREE
IN SUFFICIENT LIFT OPERATING ON A SATURATED DGZ TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE NONETHELESS FOR A MESOSCALE BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW GENERALLY FAVORING GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXCEPT UNDER THE HEAVIER BAND WHERE A GENERAL 3-5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE UPDATED FORECAST FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS...THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.  WILL NEED TO WATCH THE END
TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA HOWEVER
AS DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY FILL SOUTH EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHUTTING DOWN
THE SNOW MACHINE.  THIS NW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES FRIDAY AT
18Z.

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN NOTED ON NEDOT WEBCAMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS /GENERALLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS/...AND AFTER ANALYSIS OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE
REGION...FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE A PATCHY FZDZ MENTION GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WHERE A PIECE
OF ENERGY /PV ANOMALY/ FROM A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SPREADING SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  ANALYSIS OF THE PV15 FIELD SUGGEST
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
ANOMALY...WHICH YIELDS BETTER CONFIDENCE.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FIRST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  FORCING
AND QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE
SLR/S WILL YIELD SOME ACCUMULATIONS.  HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A OGALLALA TO BURWELL
LINE.   THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF A NORTH
PLATTE TO BURWELL LINE.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO 2-4 INCHES
THERE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...IT/S BEST TO LET THE TRAVELING PUBLIC KNOW OF THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WITH AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING
AS MANIFEST IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE IN THE 280-295K LAYER
AND IN A CROSS-SECTION OF AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION.
SATURATION DEFICITS ARE 5-15MB BUT MIXING RATIO IS 1-2G/KG...SO
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE REAL HIGH. SINCE A LARGE PART OF THE
SATURATED LAYER IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
20/1 FROM THE NAM. HOWEVER...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE
WHICH WOULD GIVE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCH
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-OGA LINE WITH THE MAXIMUM ALONG AN ONL-BBW
AXIS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 1-2G/KG MIXING RATIO.
THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURATED LAYER AT -12C IN THE
LIFT AND ACCRETION LAYERS AND THUS WE WOULD EXPECT A LOWER SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO MORE ON THE ORDER OF 17-19/1. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO BE BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY EVENING AND THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN THE EVENING WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES. WIND WILL DECREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH BY 06Z.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS AN ARCTIC FRONT PIVOTING THROUGH
NEBRASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 280-290K LAYER PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD
MOTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 1-1.5G/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.20-0.25 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL AREA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER (900-650MB) AND BEYOND.
AGAIN THIS WOULD POINT TO A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...SO SNOWFALL
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AS WELL.
WITH THE SOURCE OF THE AIR MASS BEING ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...VERY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 IN THE
SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE AND 10-15 IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
ZERO. ANY WIND AT ALL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SECOND WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 10Z. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FT AGL...HOWEVER...THEY MAY
DROP AS LOW AS 800 FT AGL WITH ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...AND WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. VISBYS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3SM WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER SOME MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 1SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 900 FT
AGL. A SECONDARY SHOT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1.5SM WITH CIGS AS
LOW AS 1000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 3SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 1200 FT AGL.
ON FRIDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS OF 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ025>029-036>038-
057>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 260535
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SANDHILLS IN AREA AND TEMPORALLY. SATELLITE
PICS INDICATE A NICE AREA OF STRATUS WITH LITTLE OR NO MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOTED. TIME HTS TAKEN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM IMPERIAL...TO NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE TO ONEILL...CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DECENT DRY LAYER AON 700 MB WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF
FZDZ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ASSESS THIS WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HRS...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER
SOUTH TO COVER FREEZING DRIZZLE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ON TWO DISTINCT
BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOW.  PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE
ADVISORY FOR YOUR AREA OF CONCERN.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES REVEAL A FAVORABLE PROFILE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.  THE NAM...GFS...RAP...AND OTHERS ALL AGREE
IN SUFFICIENT LIFT OPERATING ON A SATURATED DGZ TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE NONETHELESS FOR A MESOSCALE BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW GENERALLY FAVORING GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXCEPT UNDER THE HEAVIER BAND WHERE A GENERAL 3-5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE UPDATED FORECAST FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS...THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.  WILL NEED TO WATCH THE END
TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA HOWEVER
AS DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY FILL SOUTH EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHUTTING DOWN
THE SNOW MACHINE.  THIS NW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES FRIDAY AT
18Z.

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN NOTED ON NEDOT WEBCAMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS /GENERALLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS/...AND AFTER ANALYSIS OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE
REGION...FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE A PATCHY FZDZ MENTION GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WHERE A PIECE
OF ENERGY /PV ANOMALY/ FROM A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SPREADING SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  ANALYSIS OF THE PV15 FIELD SUGGEST
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
ANOMALY...WHICH YIELDS BETTER CONFIDENCE.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FIRST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  FORCING
AND QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE
SLR/S WILL YIELD SOME ACCUMULATIONS.  HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A OGALLALA TO BURWELL
LINE.   THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF A NORTH
PLATTE TO BURWELL LINE.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO 2-4 INCHES
THERE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...IT/S BEST TO LET THE TRAVELING PUBLIC KNOW OF THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WITH AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING
AS MANIFEST IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE IN THE 280-295K LAYER
AND IN A CROSS-SECTION OF AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION.
SATURATION DEFICITS ARE 5-15MB BUT MIXING RATIO IS 1-2G/KG...SO
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE REAL HIGH. SINCE A LARGE PART OF THE
SATURATED LAYER IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
20/1 FROM THE NAM. HOWEVER...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE
WHICH WOULD GIVE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCH
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-OGA LINE WITH THE MAXIMUM ALONG AN ONL-BBW
AXIS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 1-2G/KG MIXING RATIO.
THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURATED LAYER AT -12C IN THE
LIFT AND ACCRETION LAYERS AND THUS WE WOULD EXPECT A LOWER SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO MORE ON THE ORDER OF 17-19/1. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO BE BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY EVENING AND THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN THE EVENING WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES. WIND WILL DECREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH BY 06Z.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS AN ARCTIC FRONT PIVOTING THROUGH
NEBRASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 280-290K LAYER PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD
MOTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 1-1.5G/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.20-0.25 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL AREA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER (900-650MB) AND BEYOND.
AGAIN THIS WOULD POINT TO A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...SO SNOWFALL
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AS WELL.
WITH THE SOURCE OF THE AIR MASS BEING ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...VERY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 IN THE
SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE AND 10-15 IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
ZERO. ANY WIND AT ALL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND A SECOND WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 10Z. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 1200 FT AGL...HOWEVER...THEY MAY
DROP AS LOW AS 800 FT AGL WITH ANY DRIZZLE OR FOG. LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY...AND WILL PERSIST OFF AND ON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. VISBYS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3SM WITH
SNOW...HOWEVER SOME MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 1SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 900 FT
AGL. A SECONDARY SHOT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1.5SM WITH CIGS AS
LOW AS 1000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 3SM AND CIGS AS LOW AS 1200 FT AGL.
ON FRIDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS OF 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL ARE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ025>029-036>038-
057>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB









000
FXUS63 KLBF 252338
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
538 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SANDHILLS IN AREA AND TEMPORALLY. SATELLITE
PICS INDICATE A NICE AREA OF STRATUS WITH LITTLE OR NO MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOTED. TIME HTS TAKEN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM IMPERIAL...TO NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE TO ONEILL...CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DECENT DRY LAYER AON 700 MB WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF
FZDZ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ASSESS THIS WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HRS...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER
SOUTH TO COVER FREEZING DRIZZLE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ON TWO DISTINCT
BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOW.  PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE
ADVISORY FOR YOUR AREA OF CONCERN.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES REVEAL A FAVORABLE PROFILE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.  THE NAM...GFS...RAP...AND OTHERS ALL AGREE
IN SUFFICIENT LIFT OPERATING ON A SATURATED DGZ TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE NONETHELESS FOR A MESOSCALE BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW GENERALLY FAVORING GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXCEPT UNDER THE HEAVIER BAND WHERE A GENERAL 3-5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE UPDATED FORECAST FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS...THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.  WILL NEED TO WATCH THE END
TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA HOWEVER
AS DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY FILL SOUTH EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHUTTING DOWN
THE SNOW MACHINE.  THIS NW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES FRIDAY AT
18Z.

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN NOTED ON NEDOT WEBCAMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS /GENERALLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS/...AND AFTER ANALYSIS OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE
REGION...FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE A PATCHY FZDZ MENTION GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WHERE A PIECE
OF ENERGY /PV ANOMALY/ FROM A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SPREADING SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  ANALYSIS OF THE PV15 FIELD SUGGEST
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
ANOMALY...WHICH YIELDS BETTER CONFIDENCE.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FIRST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  FORCING
AND QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE
SLR/S WILL YIELD SOME ACCUMULATIONS.  HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A OGALLALA TO BURWELL
LINE.   THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF A NORTH
PLATTE TO BURWELL LINE.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO 2-4 INCHES
THERE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...IT/S BEST TO LET THE TRAVELING PUBLIC KNOW OF THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WITH AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING
AS MANIFEST IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE IN THE 280-295K LAYER
AND IN A CROSS-SECTION OF AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION.
SATURATION DEFICITS ARE 5-15MB BUT MIXING RATIO IS 1-2G/KG...SO
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE REAL HIGH. SINCE A LARGE PART OF THE
SATURATED LAYER IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
20/1 FROM THE NAM. HOWEVER...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE
WHICH WOULD GIVE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCH
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-OGA LINE WITH THE MAXIMUM ALONG AN ONL-BBW
AXIS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 1-2G/KG MIXING RATIO.
THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURATED LAYER AT -12C IN THE
LIFT AND ACCRETION LAYERS AND THUS WE WOULD EXPECT A LOWER SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO MORE ON THE ORDER OF 17-19/1. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO BE BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY EVENING AND THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN THE EVENING WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES. WIND WILL DECREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH BY 06Z.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS AN ARCTIC FRONT PIVOTING THROUGH
NEBRASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 280-290K LAYER PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD
MOTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 1-1.5G/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.20-0.25 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL AREA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER (900-650MB) AND BEYOND.
AGAIN THIS WOULD POINT TO A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...SO SNOWFALL
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AS WELL.
WITH THE SOURCE OF THE AIR MASS BEING ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...VERY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 IN THE
SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE AND 10-15 IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
ZERO. ANY WIND AT ALL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT
THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FIRST
WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE KVTN TERMINAL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH THE SECOND IMPACTING THE KLBF TERMINAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY CIGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 700 TO 1000 FT WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1SM THROUGH LATE
EVENING THURSDAY. VISBYS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
AROUND 1500 FT EXPECTED. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 2SM.
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO END OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. VISBYS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT FALLS...WILL RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 3 MILES WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ025>029-036>038-
057>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 252338
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
538 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SANDHILLS IN AREA AND TEMPORALLY. SATELLITE
PICS INDICATE A NICE AREA OF STRATUS WITH LITTLE OR NO MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOTED. TIME HTS TAKEN ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM IMPERIAL...TO NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE TO ONEILL...CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A DECENT DRY LAYER AON 700 MB WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF
FZDZ INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL ASSESS THIS WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HRS...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER
SOUTH TO COVER FREEZING DRIZZLE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ON TWO DISTINCT
BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOW.  PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE
ADVISORY FOR YOUR AREA OF CONCERN.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES REVEAL A FAVORABLE PROFILE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.  THE NAM...GFS...RAP...AND OTHERS ALL AGREE
IN SUFFICIENT LIFT OPERATING ON A SATURATED DGZ TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE NONETHELESS FOR A MESOSCALE BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW GENERALLY FAVORING GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXCEPT UNDER THE HEAVIER BAND WHERE A GENERAL 3-5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE UPDATED FORECAST FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS...THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.  WILL NEED TO WATCH THE END
TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA HOWEVER
AS DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY FILL SOUTH EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHUTTING DOWN
THE SNOW MACHINE.  THIS NW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES FRIDAY AT
18Z.

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN NOTED ON NEDOT WEBCAMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS /GENERALLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS/...AND AFTER ANALYSIS OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE
REGION...FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE A PATCHY FZDZ MENTION GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WHERE A PIECE
OF ENERGY /PV ANOMALY/ FROM A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SPREADING SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  ANALYSIS OF THE PV15 FIELD SUGGEST
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
ANOMALY...WHICH YIELDS BETTER CONFIDENCE.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FIRST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  FORCING
AND QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE
SLR/S WILL YIELD SOME ACCUMULATIONS.  HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A OGALLALA TO BURWELL
LINE.   THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF A NORTH
PLATTE TO BURWELL LINE.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO 2-4 INCHES
THERE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...IT/S BEST TO LET THE TRAVELING PUBLIC KNOW OF THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WITH AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING
AS MANIFEST IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE IN THE 280-295K LAYER
AND IN A CROSS-SECTION OF AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION.
SATURATION DEFICITS ARE 5-15MB BUT MIXING RATIO IS 1-2G/KG...SO
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE REAL HIGH. SINCE A LARGE PART OF THE
SATURATED LAYER IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
20/1 FROM THE NAM. HOWEVER...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE
WHICH WOULD GIVE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCH
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-OGA LINE WITH THE MAXIMUM ALONG AN ONL-BBW
AXIS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 1-2G/KG MIXING RATIO.
THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURATED LAYER AT -12C IN THE
LIFT AND ACCRETION LAYERS AND THUS WE WOULD EXPECT A LOWER SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO MORE ON THE ORDER OF 17-19/1. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO BE BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY EVENING AND THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN THE EVENING WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES. WIND WILL DECREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH BY 06Z.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS AN ARCTIC FRONT PIVOTING THROUGH
NEBRASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 280-290K LAYER PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD
MOTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 1-1.5G/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.20-0.25 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL AREA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER (900-650MB) AND BEYOND.
AGAIN THIS WOULD POINT TO A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...SO SNOWFALL
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AS WELL.
WITH THE SOURCE OF THE AIR MASS BEING ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...VERY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 IN THE
SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE AND 10-15 IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
ZERO. ANY WIND AT ALL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT
THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FIRST
WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE KVTN TERMINAL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH THE SECOND IMPACTING THE KLBF TERMINAL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING FRIDAY CIGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 700 TO 1000 FT WITH VISBYS AS LOW AS 1SM THROUGH LATE
EVENING THURSDAY. VISBYS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
AROUND 1500 FT EXPECTED. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH VISBYS DOWN TO 2SM.
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO END OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. VISBYS WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT FALLS...WILL RANGE FROM
1.5 TO 3 MILES WITH CIGS AROUND 1000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ025>029-036>038-
057>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 252114
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
314 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ON TWO DISTINCT
BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOW.  PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE
ADVISORY FOR YOUR AREA OF CONCERN.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES REVEAL A FAVORABLE PROFILE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.  THE NAM...GFS...RAP...AND OTHERS ALL AGREE
IN SUFFICIENT LIFT OPERATING ON A SATURATED DGZ TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE NONETHELESS FOR A MESOSCALE BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW GENERALLY FAVORING GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXCEPT UNDER THE HEAVIER BAND WHERE A GENERAL 3-5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE UPDATED FORECAST FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS...THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.  WILL NEED TO WATCH THE END
TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA HOWEVER
AS DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY FILL SOUTH EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHUTTING DOWN
THE SNOW MACHINE.  THIS NW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES FRIDAY AT
18Z.

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN NOTED ON NEDOT WEBCAMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS /GENERALLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS/...AND AFTER ANALYSIS OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE
REGION...FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE A PATCHY FZDZ MENTION GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WHERE A PIECE
OF ENERGY /PV ANOMALY/ FROM A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SPREADING SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  ANALYSIS OF THE PV15 FIELD SUGGEST
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
ANOMALY...WHICH YIELDS BETTER CONFIDENCE.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FIRST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  FORCING
AND QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE
SLR/S WILL YIELD SOME ACCUMULATIONS.  HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A OGALLALA TO BURWELL
LINE.   THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF A NORTH
PLATTE TO BURWELL LINE.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO 2-4 INCHES
THERE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...IT/S BEST TO LET THE TRAVELING PUBLIC KNOW OF THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WITH AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING
AS MANIFEST IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE IN THE 280-295K LAYER
AND IN A CROSS-SECTION OF AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION.
SATURATION DEFICITS ARE 5-15MB BUT MIXING RATIO IS 1-2G/KG...SO
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE REAL HIGH. SINCE A LARGE PART OF THE
SATURATED LAYER IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
20/1 FROM THE NAM. HOWEVER...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE
WHICH WOULD GIVE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCH
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-OGA LINE WITH THE MAXIMUM ALONG AN ONL-BBW
AXIS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 1-2G/KG MIXING RATIO.
THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURATED LAYER AT -12C IN THE
LIFT AND ACCRETION LAYERS AND THUS WE WOULD EXPECT A LOWER SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO MORE ON THE ORDER OF 17-19/1. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO BE BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY EVENING AND THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN THE EVENING WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES. WIND WILL DECREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH BY 06Z.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS AN ARCTIC FRONT PIVOTING THROUGH
NEBRASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 280-290K LAYER PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD
MOTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 1-1.5G/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.20-0.25 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL AREA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER (900-650MB) AND BEYOND.
AGAIN THIS WOULD POINT TO A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...SO SNOWFALL
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AS WELL.
WITH THE SOURCE OF THE AIR MASS BEING ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...VERY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 IN THE
SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE AND 10-15 IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
ZERO. ANY WIND AT ALL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST AS THE MODELS DEVELOP TWO SEPARATE
BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD...EACH OF
WHICH WILL BRING SNOW...LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW...SNOW AND FZFG IS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. KVTN HAS LOWERED BELOW
1SM AS FZFG IMPACTS THE SITE...THE PERIOD OF FOG SHOULD BE BRIEF
HOWEVER...AS SNOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY IMPACT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY...THE SECOND BAND
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE 12-15Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS KLBF AND KBBW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON /RIGHT AT OR JUST BEFORE 18Z/. SNOW...REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWERED CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN. A
PERIOD OF FZDZ MAY BE A CONCERN AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ALL IN ALL FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ025>029-036>038-
057>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 252114
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
314 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ON TWO DISTINCT
BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SNOW.  PLEASE SEE THE APPROPRIATE
ADVISORY FOR YOUR AREA OF CONCERN.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES REVEAL A FAVORABLE PROFILE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.  THE NAM...GFS...RAP...AND OTHERS ALL AGREE
IN SUFFICIENT LIFT OPERATING ON A SATURATED DGZ TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.  MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE NONETHELESS FOR A MESOSCALE BAND
OF MODERATE SNOW GENERALLY FAVORING GARDEN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...EXCEPT UNDER THE HEAVIER BAND WHERE A GENERAL 3-5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THE UPDATED FORECAST FALLS IN LINE WITH THE
PREVIOUS...THUS NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.  WILL NEED TO WATCH THE END
TIME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA HOWEVER
AS DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY FILL SOUTH EARLY ON FRIDAY...SHUTTING DOWN
THE SNOW MACHINE.  THIS NW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES FRIDAY AT
18Z.

FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN NOTED ON NEDOT WEBCAMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS /GENERALLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
STRATUS/...AND AFTER ANALYSIS OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE
REGION...FELT IT WAS BEST TO INCLUDE A PATCHY FZDZ MENTION GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS.

FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WHERE A PIECE
OF ENERGY /PV ANOMALY/ FROM A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH ROTATES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SPREADING SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  ANALYSIS OF THE PV15 FIELD SUGGEST
THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE
ANOMALY...WHICH YIELDS BETTER CONFIDENCE.  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FIRST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  FORCING
AND QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT FAVORABLE
SLR/S WILL YIELD SOME ACCUMULATIONS.  HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A OGALLALA TO BURWELL
LINE.   THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL FAVOR THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS...WHICH IS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND EAST OF A NORTH
PLATTE TO BURWELL LINE.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY AMOUNT TO 2-4 INCHES
THERE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE 1-3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...IT/S BEST TO LET THE TRAVELING PUBLIC KNOW OF THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WITH AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES INTO LATE FRIDAY EVENING
AS MANIFEST IN THE LOCAL PRESSURE DERIVATIVE IN THE 280-295K LAYER
AND IN A CROSS-SECTION OF AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION.
SATURATION DEFICITS ARE 5-15MB BUT MIXING RATIO IS 1-2G/KG...SO
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL NOT BE REAL HIGH. SINCE A LARGE PART OF THE
SATURATED LAYER IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIO WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
20/1 FROM THE NAM. HOWEVER...WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE
WHICH WOULD GIVE STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 INCH
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ANW-OGA LINE WITH THE MAXIMUM ALONG AN ONL-BBW
AXIS. THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 1-2G/KG MIXING RATIO.
THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURATED LAYER AT -12C IN THE
LIFT AND ACCRETION LAYERS AND THUS WE WOULD EXPECT A LOWER SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO MORE ON THE ORDER OF 17-19/1. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO BE BEFORE 00Z FRIDAY EVENING AND THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN THE EVENING WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES. WIND WILL DECREASE TO 10
TO 20 MPH BY 06Z.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS AN ARCTIC FRONT PIVOTING THROUGH
NEBRASKA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 280-290K LAYER PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD
MOTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE AIR IS NEARLY
SATURATED WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY OF 1-1.5G/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF 0.20-0.25 INCH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL AREA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER (900-650MB) AND BEYOND.
AGAIN THIS WOULD POINT TO A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...SO SNOWFALL
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE AS WELL.
WITH THE SOURCE OF THE AIR MASS BEING ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...VERY COLD WEATHER IS LIKELY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 IN THE
SANDHILLS AND THE PANHANDLE AND 10-15 IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
ZERO. ANY WIND AT ALL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST AS THE MODELS DEVELOP TWO SEPARATE
BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD...EACH OF
WHICH WILL BRING SNOW...LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW...SNOW AND FZFG IS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. KVTN HAS LOWERED BELOW
1SM AS FZFG IMPACTS THE SITE...THE PERIOD OF FOG SHOULD BE BRIEF
HOWEVER...AS SNOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY IMPACT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY...THE SECOND BAND
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE 12-15Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS KLBF AND KBBW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON /RIGHT AT OR JUST BEFORE 18Z/. SNOW...REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWERED CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN. A
PERIOD OF FZDZ MAY BE A CONCERN AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ALL IN ALL FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ025>029-036>038-
057>059-069>071.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251749
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1149 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. LIFT IS DEEP BUT JUST 5 MICROBARS SUPPORTING THE MODERATE
SNOW FORECAST TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG PINE RIDGE. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS MODEST IN THE NAM. FARTHER
EAST THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A 700MB DRY SLOT NEAR VALENTINE WHICH
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT SNOWFALL. THE FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY INTRUSION. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS MARGINAL ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT
GIVEN IT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER NIGHTFALL THE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO STAND WITH NO CHANGES.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE TRENDED NORTH SOMEWHAT FAVORING SHERIDAN
COUNTY AND THE FORECAST CENTROID OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS NORTHWEST OF
THE HPC FORECAST.

MEANWHILE THE RAP13 AND THE 06Z NAM ARE TAKING THE
BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE WRN CHEYENNE DIVIDE AND TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS SOUND. THIS METEOROLOGICAL
WOBBLING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY. THE LATEST RADAR AND OBS ACROSS
WRN SD INDICATE SNOW IS NOW UNDERWAY...ABOUT 5 HOURS SOONER THAN
FORECAST WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS
FORCING ACROSS NW NEB THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z WHICH LIFTS EAST INTO
ERN SD BY 06Z. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS DISTURBANCE VERY QUICKLY AND
RAPIDLY SETS UP A CLOSED H700MB LOW NEAR CHEYENNE. THERE IS WOBBLING
IN THE MODELS BUT THIS IS NORMAL AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH
THE CNTL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS STORM IS BEING FUELED BY A HIGH
QUALITY SUBTROPICAL RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF HAWAII SUGGESTING THERE
COULD BE ROOM FOR SURPRISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SOMEWHERE. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER HAZARDS MAP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES.

THE LATEST WIND FORECAST INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS ABOUT 5 MPH LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 00Z ECM WAS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING 25 MPH WIND
SPEEDS. BLOWING SNOW IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH AND WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WITH ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH IDAHO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED EAST AND BE OVER ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WOULD BE MOVING INTO MONTANA.

ON FRIDAY MORNING SNOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD BE WINDING
DOWN AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT MOVES EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA DIMINISHING FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ALSO ON THE WAYSIDE BY 18Z AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO ADVECT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE AREAS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY AND AS WINDS GO DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 18Z CONTINUES TO LOOK APPROPRIATE.

LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT 12Z...THE COLUMN ISN/T COMPLETELY
SATURATED AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FROM
750MB TO 600MB. SATURATION IS SEEN THOUGH BELOW 750MB BUT THE DRY
LAYER LOOKS TOO DEEP TO PROVIDE A SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS. THERE IS
INDICATION THAT LIFT IN THIS LAYER INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AS NO ICE WOULD BE INTRODUCED INTO THAT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES AFTER 12Z AND WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON
THIS HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND HAVE ONLY
SNOW.

THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ELONGATED AS A 120KT-130KT JET SHEARS IT INTO
SEVERAL PIECES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
OCCURRING....WITH THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP THROUGH KANSAS
AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES TOGETHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS LIFT INCREASES DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KANSAS
AND THE EASTERN PART OF NEBRASKA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE 8-12
UBAR/S OF OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS /16:1 TO 19:1/. SO...DESPITE QPF AMOUNTS NOT BEING
SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT /0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES/ COULD GET
UP TO 3 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH CLOUDS
AND SNOW DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM MUCH. PRIOR FORECAST HAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH STILL LOOK GOOD AND ONLY
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE.

AS THE MONTANA SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO DRY
THINGS OUT OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BY 12Z...BUT IF SKIES DO
CLEAR...WITH A GOOD SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD DROP
TO NEAR 0F. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO ALL OF THE SNOW AND ALSO DIMINISH THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER BUT NOT BY MUCH...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE 20S.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO BRING SOME VERY COLD AIR DOWN INTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING AN AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
AROUND -20C INTO THE AREA /COMPARED TO THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT
KLBF OF 2C/. HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD BE QUITE COLD...ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LARGE DEGREE OF
SPREAD...WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 9 FOR TUESDAY/S HIGHS...WITH A
RANGE FROM 0F TO 42F OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BELIEVE THE COLDER ROUTE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THE AGREEMENT IN A
COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN AND WITH DEEP SNOWPACK TO HELP REDUCE
TEMPERATURE RISES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST AS THE MODELS DEVELOP TWO SEPARATE
BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD...EACH OF
WHICH WILL BRING SNOW...LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW...SNOW AND FZFG IS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. KVTN HAS LOWERED BELOW
1SM AS FZFG IMPACTS THE SITE...THE PERIOD OF FOG SHOULD BE BRIEF
HOWEVER...AS SNOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY IMPACT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY...THE SECOND BAND
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE 12-15Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS KLBF AND KBBW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON /RIGHT AT OR JUST BEFORE 18Z/. SNOW...REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWERED CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN. A
PERIOD OF FZDZ MAY BE A CONCERN AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ALL IN ALL FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 251749
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1149 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. LIFT IS DEEP BUT JUST 5 MICROBARS SUPPORTING THE MODERATE
SNOW FORECAST TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG PINE RIDGE. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS MODEST IN THE NAM. FARTHER
EAST THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A 700MB DRY SLOT NEAR VALENTINE WHICH
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT SNOWFALL. THE FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY INTRUSION. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS MARGINAL ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT
GIVEN IT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER NIGHTFALL THE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO STAND WITH NO CHANGES.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE TRENDED NORTH SOMEWHAT FAVORING SHERIDAN
COUNTY AND THE FORECAST CENTROID OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS NORTHWEST OF
THE HPC FORECAST.

MEANWHILE THE RAP13 AND THE 06Z NAM ARE TAKING THE
BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE WRN CHEYENNE DIVIDE AND TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS SOUND. THIS METEOROLOGICAL
WOBBLING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY. THE LATEST RADAR AND OBS ACROSS
WRN SD INDICATE SNOW IS NOW UNDERWAY...ABOUT 5 HOURS SOONER THAN
FORECAST WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS
FORCING ACROSS NW NEB THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z WHICH LIFTS EAST INTO
ERN SD BY 06Z. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS DISTURBANCE VERY QUICKLY AND
RAPIDLY SETS UP A CLOSED H700MB LOW NEAR CHEYENNE. THERE IS WOBBLING
IN THE MODELS BUT THIS IS NORMAL AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH
THE CNTL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS STORM IS BEING FUELED BY A HIGH
QUALITY SUBTROPICAL RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF HAWAII SUGGESTING THERE
COULD BE ROOM FOR SURPRISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SOMEWHERE. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER HAZARDS MAP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES.

THE LATEST WIND FORECAST INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS ABOUT 5 MPH LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 00Z ECM WAS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING 25 MPH WIND
SPEEDS. BLOWING SNOW IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH AND WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WITH ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH IDAHO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED EAST AND BE OVER ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WOULD BE MOVING INTO MONTANA.

ON FRIDAY MORNING SNOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD BE WINDING
DOWN AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT MOVES EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA DIMINISHING FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ALSO ON THE WAYSIDE BY 18Z AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO ADVECT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE AREAS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY AND AS WINDS GO DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 18Z CONTINUES TO LOOK APPROPRIATE.

LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT 12Z...THE COLUMN ISN/T COMPLETELY
SATURATED AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FROM
750MB TO 600MB. SATURATION IS SEEN THOUGH BELOW 750MB BUT THE DRY
LAYER LOOKS TOO DEEP TO PROVIDE A SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS. THERE IS
INDICATION THAT LIFT IN THIS LAYER INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AS NO ICE WOULD BE INTRODUCED INTO THAT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES AFTER 12Z AND WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON
THIS HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND HAVE ONLY
SNOW.

THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ELONGATED AS A 120KT-130KT JET SHEARS IT INTO
SEVERAL PIECES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
OCCURRING....WITH THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP THROUGH KANSAS
AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES TOGETHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS LIFT INCREASES DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KANSAS
AND THE EASTERN PART OF NEBRASKA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE 8-12
UBAR/S OF OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS /16:1 TO 19:1/. SO...DESPITE QPF AMOUNTS NOT BEING
SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT /0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES/ COULD GET
UP TO 3 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH CLOUDS
AND SNOW DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM MUCH. PRIOR FORECAST HAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH STILL LOOK GOOD AND ONLY
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE.

AS THE MONTANA SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO DRY
THINGS OUT OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BY 12Z...BUT IF SKIES DO
CLEAR...WITH A GOOD SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD DROP
TO NEAR 0F. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO ALL OF THE SNOW AND ALSO DIMINISH THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER BUT NOT BY MUCH...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE 20S.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO BRING SOME VERY COLD AIR DOWN INTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING AN AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
AROUND -20C INTO THE AREA /COMPARED TO THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT
KLBF OF 2C/. HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD BE QUITE COLD...ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LARGE DEGREE OF
SPREAD...WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 9 FOR TUESDAY/S HIGHS...WITH A
RANGE FROM 0F TO 42F OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BELIEVE THE COLDER ROUTE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THE AGREEMENT IN A
COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN AND WITH DEEP SNOWPACK TO HELP REDUCE
TEMPERATURE RISES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST AS THE MODELS DEVELOP TWO SEPARATE
BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD...EACH OF
WHICH WILL BRING SNOW...LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW...SNOW AND FZFG IS
SPREADING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. KVTN HAS LOWERED BELOW
1SM AS FZFG IMPACTS THE SITE...THE PERIOD OF FOG SHOULD BE BRIEF
HOWEVER...AS SNOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY IMPACT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY...THE SECOND BAND
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE 12-15Z
TIME FRAME...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS KLBF AND KBBW BY
EARLY AFTERNOON /RIGHT AT OR JUST BEFORE 18Z/. SNOW...REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWERED CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN. A
PERIOD OF FZDZ MAY BE A CONCERN AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ALL IN ALL FORECAST
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 251126 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
526 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. LIFT IS DEEP BUT JUST 5 MICROBARS SUPPORTING THE MODERATE
SNOW FORECAST TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG PINE RIDGE. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS MODEST IN THE NAM. FARTHER
EAST THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A 700MB DRY SLOT NEAR VALENTINE WHICH
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT SNOWFALL. THE FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY INTRUSION. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS MARGINAL ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT
GIVEN IT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER NIGHTFALL THE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO STAND WITH NO CHANGES.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE TRENDED NORTH SOMEWHAT FAVORING SHERIDAN
COUNTY AND THE FORECAST CENTROID OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS NORTHWEST OF
THE HPC FORECAST.

MEANWHILE THE RAP13 AND THE 06Z NAM ARE TAKING THE
BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE WRN CHEYENNE DIVIDE AND TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS SOUND. THIS METEOROLOGICAL
WOBBLING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY. THE LATEST RADAR AND OBS ACROSS
WRN SD INDICATE SNOW IS NOW UNDERWAY...ABOUT 5 HOURS SOONER THAN
FORECAST WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS
FORCING ACROSS NW NEB THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z WHICH LIFTS EAST INTO
ERN SD BY 06Z. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS DISTURBANCE VERY QUICKLY AND
RAPIDLY SETS UP A CLOSED H700MB LOW NEAR CHEYENNE. THERE IS WOBBLING
IN THE MODELS BUT THIS IS NORMAL AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH
THE CNTL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS STORM IS BEING FUELED BY A HIGH
QUALITY SUBTROPICAL RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF HAWAII SUGGESTING THERE
COULD BE ROOM FOR SURPRISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SOMEWHERE. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER HAZARDS MAP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES.

THE LATEST WIND FORECAST INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS ABOUT 5 MPH LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 00Z ECM WAS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING 25 MPH WIND
SPEEDS. BLOWING SNOW IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH AND WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WITH ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH IDAHO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED EAST AND BE OVER ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WOULD BE MOVING INTO MONTANA.

ON FRIDAY MORNING SNOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD BE WINDING
DOWN AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT MOVES EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA DIMINISHING FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ALSO ON THE WAYSIDE BY 18Z AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO ADVECT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE AREAS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY AND AS WINDS GO DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 18Z CONTINUES TO LOOK APPROPRIATE.

LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT 12Z...THE COLUMN ISN/T COMPLETELY
SATURATED AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FROM
750MB TO 600MB. SATURATION IS SEEN THOUGH BELOW 750MB BUT THE DRY
LAYER LOOKS TOO DEEP TO PROVIDE A SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS. THERE IS
INDICATION THAT LIFT IN THIS LAYER INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AS NO ICE WOULD BE INTRODUCED INTO THAT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES AFTER 12Z AND WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON
THIS HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND HAVE ONLY
SNOW.

THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ELONGATED AS A 120KT-130KT JET SHEARS IT INTO
SEVERAL PIECES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
OCCURRING....WITH THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP THROUGH KANSAS
AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES TOGETHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS LIFT INCREASES DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KANSAS
AND THE EASTERN PART OF NEBRASKA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE 8-12
UBAR/S OF OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS /16:1 TO 19:1/. SO...DESPITE QPF AMOUNTS NOT BEING
SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT /0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES/ COULD GET
UP TO 3 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH CLOUDS
AND SNOW DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM MUCH. PRIOR FORECAST HAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH STILL LOOK GOOD AND ONLY
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE.

AS THE MONTANA SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO DRY
THINGS OUT OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BY 12Z...BUT IF SKIES DO
CLEAR...WITH A GOOD SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD DROP
TO NEAR 0F. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO ALL OF THE SNOW AND ALSO DIMINISH THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER BUT NOT BY MUCH...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE 20S.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO BRING SOME VERY COLD AIR DOWN INTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING AN AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
AROUND -20C INTO THE AREA /COMPARED TO THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT
KLBF OF 2C/. HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD BE QUITE COLD...ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LARGE DEGREE OF
SPREAD...WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 9 FOR TUESDAY/S HIGHS...WITH A
RANGE FROM 0F TO 42F OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BELIEVE THE COLDER ROUTE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THE AGREEMENT IN A
COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN AND WITH DEEP SNOWPACK TO HELP REDUCE
TEMPERATURE RISES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR
KVTN-KOGA TODAY. THE SAME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CREEP SOUTH TO
NEAR KIML-KLBF-KONL BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR WILL
BECOME MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU SRN SD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO NOON
CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 251126 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
526 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. LIFT IS DEEP BUT JUST 5 MICROBARS SUPPORTING THE MODERATE
SNOW FORECAST TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG PINE RIDGE. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS MODEST IN THE NAM. FARTHER
EAST THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A 700MB DRY SLOT NEAR VALENTINE WHICH
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT SNOWFALL. THE FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY INTRUSION. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS MARGINAL ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT
GIVEN IT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER NIGHTFALL THE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO STAND WITH NO CHANGES.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE TRENDED NORTH SOMEWHAT FAVORING SHERIDAN
COUNTY AND THE FORECAST CENTROID OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS NORTHWEST OF
THE HPC FORECAST.

MEANWHILE THE RAP13 AND THE 06Z NAM ARE TAKING THE
BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE WRN CHEYENNE DIVIDE AND TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS SOUND. THIS METEOROLOGICAL
WOBBLING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY. THE LATEST RADAR AND OBS ACROSS
WRN SD INDICATE SNOW IS NOW UNDERWAY...ABOUT 5 HOURS SOONER THAN
FORECAST WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS
FORCING ACROSS NW NEB THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z WHICH LIFTS EAST INTO
ERN SD BY 06Z. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS DISTURBANCE VERY QUICKLY AND
RAPIDLY SETS UP A CLOSED H700MB LOW NEAR CHEYENNE. THERE IS WOBBLING
IN THE MODELS BUT THIS IS NORMAL AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH
THE CNTL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS STORM IS BEING FUELED BY A HIGH
QUALITY SUBTROPICAL RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF HAWAII SUGGESTING THERE
COULD BE ROOM FOR SURPRISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SOMEWHERE. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER HAZARDS MAP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES.

THE LATEST WIND FORECAST INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS ABOUT 5 MPH LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 00Z ECM WAS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING 25 MPH WIND
SPEEDS. BLOWING SNOW IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH AND WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WITH ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH IDAHO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED EAST AND BE OVER ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WOULD BE MOVING INTO MONTANA.

ON FRIDAY MORNING SNOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD BE WINDING
DOWN AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT MOVES EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA DIMINISHING FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ALSO ON THE WAYSIDE BY 18Z AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO ADVECT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE AREAS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY AND AS WINDS GO DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 18Z CONTINUES TO LOOK APPROPRIATE.

LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT 12Z...THE COLUMN ISN/T COMPLETELY
SATURATED AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FROM
750MB TO 600MB. SATURATION IS SEEN THOUGH BELOW 750MB BUT THE DRY
LAYER LOOKS TOO DEEP TO PROVIDE A SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS. THERE IS
INDICATION THAT LIFT IN THIS LAYER INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AS NO ICE WOULD BE INTRODUCED INTO THAT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES AFTER 12Z AND WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON
THIS HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND HAVE ONLY
SNOW.

THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ELONGATED AS A 120KT-130KT JET SHEARS IT INTO
SEVERAL PIECES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
OCCURRING....WITH THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP THROUGH KANSAS
AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES TOGETHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS LIFT INCREASES DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KANSAS
AND THE EASTERN PART OF NEBRASKA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE 8-12
UBAR/S OF OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS /16:1 TO 19:1/. SO...DESPITE QPF AMOUNTS NOT BEING
SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT /0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES/ COULD GET
UP TO 3 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH CLOUDS
AND SNOW DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM MUCH. PRIOR FORECAST HAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH STILL LOOK GOOD AND ONLY
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE.

AS THE MONTANA SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO DRY
THINGS OUT OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BY 12Z...BUT IF SKIES DO
CLEAR...WITH A GOOD SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD DROP
TO NEAR 0F. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO ALL OF THE SNOW AND ALSO DIMINISH THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER BUT NOT BY MUCH...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE 20S.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO BRING SOME VERY COLD AIR DOWN INTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING AN AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
AROUND -20C INTO THE AREA /COMPARED TO THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT
KLBF OF 2C/. HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD BE QUITE COLD...ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LARGE DEGREE OF
SPREAD...WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 9 FOR TUESDAY/S HIGHS...WITH A
RANGE FROM 0F TO 42F OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BELIEVE THE COLDER ROUTE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THE AGREEMENT IN A
COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN AND WITH DEEP SNOWPACK TO HELP REDUCE
TEMPERATURE RISES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

IFR IN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR
KVTN-KOGA TODAY. THE SAME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CREEP SOUTH TO
NEAR KIML-KLBF-KONL BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR WILL
BECOME MVFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU SRN SD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO NOON
CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 251004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. LIFT IS DEEP BUT JUST 5 MICROBARS SUPPORTING THE MODERATE
SNOW FORECAST TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG PINE RIDGE. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS MODEST IN THE NAM. FARTHER
EAST THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A 700MB DRY SLOT NEAR VALENTINE WHICH
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT SNOWFALL. THE FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY INTRUSION. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS MARGINAL ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT
GIVEN IT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER NIGHTFALL THE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO STAND WITH NO CHANGES.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE TRENDED NORTH SOMEWHAT FAVORING SHERIDAN
COUNTY AND THE FORECAST CENTROID OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS NORTHWEST OF
THE HPC FORECAST.

MEANWHILE THE RAP13 AND THE 06Z NAM ARE TAKING THE
BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE WRN CHEYENNE DIVIDE AND TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS SOUND. THIS METEOROLOGICAL
WOBBLING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY. THE LATEST RADAR AND OBS ACROSS
WRN SD INDICATE SNOW IS NOW UNDERWAY...ABOUT 5 HOURS SOONER THAN
FORECAST WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS
FORCING ACROSS NW NEB THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z WHICH LIFTS EAST INTO
ERN SD BY 06Z. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS DISTURBANCE VERY QUICKLY AND
RAPIDLY SETS UP A CLOSED H700MB LOW NEAR CHEYENNE. THERE IS WOBBLING
IN THE MODELS BUT THIS IS NORMAL AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH
THE CNTL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS STORM IS BEING FUELED BY A HIGH
QUALITY SUBTROPICAL RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF HAWAII SUGGESTING THERE
COULD BE ROOM FOR SURPRISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SOMEWHERE. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER HAZARDS MAP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES.

THE LATEST WIND FORECAST INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS ABOUT 5 MPH LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 00Z ECM WAS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING 25 MPH WIND
SPEEDS. BLOWING SNOW IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH AND WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WITH ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH IDAHO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED EAST AND BE OVER ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WOULD BE MOVING INTO MONTANA.

ON FRIDAY MORNING SNOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD BE WINDING
DOWN AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT MOVES EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA DIMINISHING FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ALSO ON THE WAYSIDE BY 18Z AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO ADVECT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE AREAS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY AND AS WINDS GO DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 18Z CONTINUES TO LOOK APPROPRIATE.

LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT 12Z...THE COLUMN ISN/T COMPLETELY
SATURATED AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FROM
750MB TO 600MB. SATURATION IS SEEN THOUGH BELOW 750MB BUT THE DRY
LAYER LOOKS TOO DEEP TO PROVIDE A SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS. THERE IS
INDICATION THAT LIFT IN THIS LAYER INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AS NO ICE WOULD BE INTRODUCED INTO THAT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES AFTER 12Z AND WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON
THIS HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND HAVE ONLY
SNOW.

THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ELONGATED AS A 120KT-130KT JET SHEARS IT INTO
SEVERAL PIECES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
OCCURRING....WITH THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP THROUGH KANSAS
AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES TOGETHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS LIFT INCREASES DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KANSAS
AND THE EASTERN PART OF NEBRASKA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE 8-12
UBAR/S OF OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS /16:1 TO 19:1/. SO...DESPITE QPF AMOUNTS NOT BEING
SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT /0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES/ COULD GET
UP TO 3 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH CLOUDS
AND SNOW DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM MUCH. PRIOR FORECAST HAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH STILL LOOK GOOD AND ONLY
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE.

AS THE MONTANA SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO DRY
THINGS OUT OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BY 12Z...BUT IF SKIES DO
CLEAR...WITH A GOOD SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD DROP
TO NEAR 0F. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO ALL OF THE SNOW AND ALSO DIMINISH THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER BUT NOT BY MUCH...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE 20S.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO BRING SOME VERY COLD AIR DOWN INTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING AN AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
AROUND -20C INTO THE AREA /COMPARED TO THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT
KLBF OF 2C/. HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD BE QUITE COLD...ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LARGE DEGREE OF
SPREAD...WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 9 FOR TUESDAY/S HIGHS...WITH A
RANGE FROM 0F TO 42F OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BELIEVE THE COLDER ROUTE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THE AGREEMENT IN A
COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN AND WITH DEEP SNOWPACK TO HELP REDUCE
TEMPERATURE RISES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS RANGING FROM
15000 TO 20000 FT AGL THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 800 TO 1500 FT AGL
BY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AND
IT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB 30 GROUP ATTM. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5000
TO 10000 FT AGL THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 1500 FT AGL
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z
WITH CIGS AROUND 1200 FT AGL AND VISBYS AS LOW AS 2 SM.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO NOON
CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB









000
FXUS63 KLBF 251004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK GOOD FOR SNOW ACROSS SHERIDAN
COUNTY. LIFT IS DEEP BUT JUST 5 MICROBARS SUPPORTING THE MODERATE
SNOW FORECAST TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG PINE RIDGE. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS MODEST IN THE NAM. FARTHER
EAST THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A 700MB DRY SLOT NEAR VALENTINE WHICH
WOULD GREATLY LIMIT SNOWFALL. THE FORECAST SHOWS A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY INTRUSION. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST
IS MARGINAL ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT
GIVEN IT WILL MOSTLY OCCUR AFTER NIGHTFALL THE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO STAND WITH NO CHANGES.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE TRENDED NORTH SOMEWHAT FAVORING SHERIDAN
COUNTY AND THE FORECAST CENTROID OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS NORTHWEST OF
THE HPC FORECAST.

MEANWHILE THE RAP13 AND THE 06Z NAM ARE TAKING THE
BETTER FOCUS ACROSS THE WRN CHEYENNE DIVIDE AND TOWARD THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS SOUND. THIS METEOROLOGICAL
WOBBLING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY. THE LATEST RADAR AND OBS ACROSS
WRN SD INDICATE SNOW IS NOW UNDERWAY...ABOUT 5 HOURS SOONER THAN
FORECAST WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS
FORCING ACROSS NW NEB THIS EVENING AROUND 03Z WHICH LIFTS EAST INTO
ERN SD BY 06Z. THE RAP WEAKENS THIS DISTURBANCE VERY QUICKLY AND
RAPIDLY SETS UP A CLOSED H700MB LOW NEAR CHEYENNE. THERE IS WOBBLING
IN THE MODELS BUT THIS IS NORMAL AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH
THE CNTL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THIS STORM IS BEING FUELED BY A HIGH
QUALITY SUBTROPICAL RIVER OF MOISTURE OFF OF HAWAII SUGGESTING THERE
COULD BE ROOM FOR SURPRISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SOMEWHERE. THE
NATIONAL WEATHER HAZARDS MAP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINTER STORM
WARNINGS ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES.

THE LATEST WIND FORECAST INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH. THIS IS ABOUT 5 MPH LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE 00Z ECM WAS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING 25 MPH WIND
SPEEDS. BLOWING SNOW IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH AND WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY WITH ITS BASE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH IDAHO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED EAST AND BE OVER ARIZONA.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WOULD BE MOVING INTO MONTANA.

ON FRIDAY MORNING SNOW OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SHOULD BE WINDING
DOWN AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT MOVES EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE AMOUNT OF LIFT ACROSS THIS AREA DIMINISHING FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE ALSO ON THE WAYSIDE BY 18Z AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO ADVECT INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE AREAS IN THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY AND AS WINDS GO DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY...ENDING THE ADVISORY AT 18Z CONTINUES TO LOOK APPROPRIATE.

LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AT 12Z...THE COLUMN ISN/T COMPLETELY
SATURATED AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...FROM
750MB TO 600MB. SATURATION IS SEEN THOUGH BELOW 750MB BUT THE DRY
LAYER LOOKS TOO DEEP TO PROVIDE A SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS. THERE IS
INDICATION THAT LIFT IN THIS LAYER INCREASES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
AS NO ICE WOULD BE INTRODUCED INTO THAT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE
MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES AFTER 12Z AND WITH LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON
THIS HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND HAVE ONLY
SNOW.

THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ELONGATED AS A 120KT-130KT JET SHEARS IT INTO
SEVERAL PIECES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
OCCURRING....WITH THE FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING UP THROUGH KANSAS
AND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PHASES TOGETHER WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF MONTANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS LIFT INCREASES DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH KANSAS
AND THE EASTERN PART OF NEBRASKA. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE 8-12
UBAR/S OF OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS /16:1 TO 19:1/. SO...DESPITE QPF AMOUNTS NOT BEING
SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT /0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES/ COULD GET
UP TO 3 INCHES IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND WITH CLOUDS
AND SNOW DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM MUCH. PRIOR FORECAST HAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WHICH STILL LOOK GOOD AND ONLY
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE.

AS THE MONTANA SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL START TO DRY
THINGS OUT OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. NOT ENTIRELY
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BY 12Z...BUT IF SKIES DO
CLEAR...WITH A GOOD SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND TEMPERATURES COULD DROP
TO NEAR 0F. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO ALL OF THE SNOW AND ALSO DIMINISH THE WINDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER BUT NOT BY MUCH...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE 20S.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO BRING SOME VERY COLD AIR DOWN INTO
THE PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHED BY THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING AN AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN
AROUND -20C INTO THE AREA /COMPARED TO THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT
KLBF OF 2C/. HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD BE QUITE COLD...ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THAT BEING SAID...DESPITE THE AGREEMENT IN THE
MODELS...THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LARGE DEGREE OF
SPREAD...WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF 9 FOR TUESDAY/S HIGHS...WITH A
RANGE FROM 0F TO 42F OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BELIEVE THE COLDER ROUTE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THE AGREEMENT IN A
COLD AIRMASS MOVING IN AND WITH DEEP SNOWPACK TO HELP REDUCE
TEMPERATURE RISES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS RANGING FROM
15000 TO 20000 FT AGL THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 800 TO 1500 FT AGL
BY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AND
IT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB 30 GROUP ATTM. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5000
TO 10000 FT AGL THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 1500 FT AGL
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z
WITH CIGS AROUND 1200 FT AGL AND VISBYS AS LOW AS 2 SM.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO NOON
CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 250534
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1134 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM POISED TO
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEGINNING EARLY
AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS. 18Z WATER VAPOR AND PV15 ANALYSIS REVEALS
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH OF INTEREST IS
DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE PAC NW COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...REVEALING PATCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BREAKDOWN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. AS A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER BL WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS OF GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND ON CHRISTMAS...FORCING STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW ATOP
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA MIDDAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CENTERED NEAR H7 WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR QPF...FALLING ALL AS
SNOW AS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED DGZ...SO OVERALL
IT APPEARS THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE START OF
THE SNOW...AND EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES...INCLUDING OUR WESTERN SANDHILLS FROM
DEUEL COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY FROM 18Z
THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD AS -8C
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

ONGOING WINTER STORM IMPACTING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE MAIN LOW
AND PUSH ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCING SNOWFALL. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE IS
DECENT WITH PWATS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 50 PERCENTILE..ABOUT A
THIRD OF AN INCH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY AS THE
18Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS INCREASED THE LIFT IN THE DGZ FROM 25.00Z TO
25.06Z AND RESULTS IN MORE QPF THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN EARLIER. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. FOR NOW LOOKING AT 2 TO 4
INCHES...BUT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO UP THIS BY A COUPLE OF INCHES
WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO MOVE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOW SNOW ARE LIKELY.
THOSE TRAVELERS ACROSS THIS AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL NEED TO KEEP UPDATED TO THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GEM...OPEN
THE LOW AND LIFT IT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GEM IS SLOW TO EJECT
THE LOW AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS A TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A LITTLE EARLY FOR HEADLINES DUE TO CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE AND
ANOTHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW
PACK MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN BUT SOME SUN WILL HELP.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED SUNDAY TO DIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY.
ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS ARE BRINGING BITTER COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C...AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO. SOME OF THE RAW DATA
SUGGEST HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS RANGING FROM
15000 TO 20000 FT AGL THROUGH 21Z THURSDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AFTER 21Z THURSDAY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 800 TO 1500 FT AGL
BY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AND
IT WILL BE HANDLED WITH A PROB 30 GROUP ATTM. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5000
TO 10000 FT AGL THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 1500 FT AGL
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z
WITH CIGS AROUND 1200 FT AGL AND VISBYS AS LOW AS 2 SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 242338
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
538 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM POISED TO
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEGINNING EARLY
AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS. 18Z WATER VAPOR AND PV15 ANALYSIS REVEALS
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH OF INTEREST IS
DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE PAC NW COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...REVEALING PATCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BREAKDOWN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. AS A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER BL WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS OF GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND ON CHRISTMAS...FORCING STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW ATOP
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA MIDDAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CENTERED NEAR H7 WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR QPF...FALLING ALL AS
SNOW AS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED DGZ...SO OVERALL
IT APPEARS THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE START OF
THE SNOW...AND EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES...INCLUDING OUR WESTERN SANDHILLS FROM
DEUEL COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY FROM 18Z
THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD AS -8C
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

ONGOING WINTER STORM IMPACTING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE MAIN LOW
AND PUSH ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCING SNOWFALL. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE IS
DECENT WITH PWATS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 50 PERCENTILE..ABOUT A
THIRD OF AN INCH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY AS THE
18Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS INCREASED THE LIFT IN THE DGZ FROM 25.00Z TO
25.06Z AND RESULTS IN MORE QPF THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN EARLIER. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. FOR NOW LOOKING AT 2 TO 4
INCHES...BUT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO UP THIS BY A COUPLE OF INCHES
WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO MOVE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOW SNOW ARE LIKELY.
THOSE TRAVELERS ACROSS THIS AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL NEED TO KEEP UPDATED TO THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GEM...OPEN
THE LOW AND LIFT IT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GEM IS SLOW TO EJECT
THE LOW AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS A TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A LITTLE EARLY FOR HEADLINES DUE TO CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE AND
ANOTHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW
PACK MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN BUT SOME SUN WILL HELP.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED SUNDAY TO DIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY.
ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS ARE BRINGING BITTER COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C...AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO. SOME OF THE RAW DATA
SUGGEST HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE CHRISTMAS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND 20000 FT AGL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. BY 21Z
THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL WITH
CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON CHRISTMAS DAY...FALLING TO AROUND 1500 FT AGL
BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z...WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 242338
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
538 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM POISED TO
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEGINNING EARLY
AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS. 18Z WATER VAPOR AND PV15 ANALYSIS REVEALS
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH OF INTEREST IS
DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE PAC NW COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...REVEALING PATCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BREAKDOWN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. AS A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER BL WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS OF GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND ON CHRISTMAS...FORCING STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW ATOP
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA MIDDAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CENTERED NEAR H7 WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR QPF...FALLING ALL AS
SNOW AS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED DGZ...SO OVERALL
IT APPEARS THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE START OF
THE SNOW...AND EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES...INCLUDING OUR WESTERN SANDHILLS FROM
DEUEL COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY FROM 18Z
THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD AS -8C
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

ONGOING WINTER STORM IMPACTING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE MAIN LOW
AND PUSH ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCING SNOWFALL. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE IS
DECENT WITH PWATS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 50 PERCENTILE..ABOUT A
THIRD OF AN INCH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY AS THE
18Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS INCREASED THE LIFT IN THE DGZ FROM 25.00Z TO
25.06Z AND RESULTS IN MORE QPF THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN EARLIER. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. FOR NOW LOOKING AT 2 TO 4
INCHES...BUT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO UP THIS BY A COUPLE OF INCHES
WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO MOVE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOW SNOW ARE LIKELY.
THOSE TRAVELERS ACROSS THIS AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL NEED TO KEEP UPDATED TO THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GEM...OPEN
THE LOW AND LIFT IT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GEM IS SLOW TO EJECT
THE LOW AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS A TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A LITTLE EARLY FOR HEADLINES DUE TO CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE AND
ANOTHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW
PACK MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN BUT SOME SUN WILL HELP.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED SUNDAY TO DIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY.
ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS ARE BRINGING BITTER COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C...AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO. SOME OF THE RAW DATA
SUGGEST HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OUT IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE CHRISTMAS MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
AFTERNOON. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND 20000 FT AGL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW. BY 21Z
THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL WITH
CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT HIGH
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 20000 FT AGL. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER ON CHRISTMAS DAY...FALLING TO AROUND 1500 FT AGL
BY MID AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z...WITH
VISBYS AS LOW AS 2SM.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 242150
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM POISED TO
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEGINNING EARLY
AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS. 18Z WATER VAPOR AND PV15 ANALYSIS REVEALS
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH OF INTEREST IS
DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE PAC NW COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...REVEALING PATCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BREAKDOWN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. AS A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER BL WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS OF GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND ON CHRISTMAS...FORCING STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW ATOP
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA MIDDAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CENTERED NEAR H7 WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR QPF...FALLING ALL AS
SNOW AS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED DGZ...SO OVERALL
IT APPEARS THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE START OF
THE SNOW...AND EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES...INCLUDING OUR WESTERN SANDHILLS FROM
DEUEL COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY FROM 18Z
THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD AS -8C
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

ONGOING WINTER STORM IMPACTING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE MAIN LOW
AND PUSH ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCING SNOWFALL. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE IS
DECENT WITH PWATS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 50 PERCENTILE..ABOUT A
THIRD OF AN INCH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY AS THE
18Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS INCREASED THE LIFT IN THE DGZ FROM 25.00Z TO
25.06Z AND RESULTS IN MORE QPF THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN EARLIER. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. FOR NOW LOOKING AT 2 TO 4
INCHES...BUT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO UP THIS BY A COUPLE OF INCHES
WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO MOVE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOW SNOW ARE LIKELY.
THOSE TRAVELERS ACROSS THIS AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL NEED TO KEEP UPDATED TO THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GEM...OPEN
THE LOW AND LIFT IT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GEM IS SLOW TO EJECT
THE LOW AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS A TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A LITTLE EARLY FOR HEADLINES DUE TO CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE AND
ANOTHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW
PACK MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN BUT SOME SUN WILL HELP.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED SUNDAY TO DIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY.
ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS ARE BRINGING BITTER COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C...AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO. SOME OF THE RAW DATA
SUGGEST HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AS THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THEREFORE VFR IS FORECAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER NOTE
THAT SNOW WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
FROM 12-18Z ON THURSDAY...WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS /WEST TO EAST/ BEYOND THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 242150
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON THE IMPENDING WINTER STORM POISED TO
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BEGINNING EARLY
AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS. 18Z WATER VAPOR AND PV15 ANALYSIS REVEALS
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH OF INTEREST IS
DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE PAC NW COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...REVEALING PATCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY ABOVE 0C ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BREAKDOWN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. AS A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOWER BL WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY
WARMER LOWS OF GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND ON CHRISTMAS...FORCING STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW ATOP
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA MIDDAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING CENTERED NEAR H7 WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR QPF...FALLING ALL AS
SNOW AS PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED DGZ...SO OVERALL
IT APPEARS THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE START OF
THE SNOW...AND EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA ZONES...INCLUDING OUR WESTERN SANDHILLS FROM
DEUEL COUNTY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CHERRY COUNTY FROM 18Z
THURSDAY TO 18Z FRIDAY.

HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MODIFIED BY THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST...TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD AS -8C
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

ONGOING WINTER STORM IMPACTING NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE MAIN LOW
AND PUSH ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCING SNOWFALL. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LIFTING THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE IS
DECENT WITH PWATS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 50 PERCENTILE..ABOUT A
THIRD OF AN INCH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY AS THE
18Z RUN OF THE NAM HAS INCREASED THE LIFT IN THE DGZ FROM 25.00Z TO
25.06Z AND RESULTS IN MORE QPF THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN EARLIER. THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF...HOWEVER
THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. FOR NOW LOOKING AT 2 TO 4
INCHES...BUT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO UP THIS BY A COUPLE OF INCHES
WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO MOVE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOW SNOW ARE LIKELY.
THOSE TRAVELERS ACROSS THIS AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL NEED TO KEEP UPDATED TO THE CHANGING CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GEM...OPEN
THE LOW AND LIFT IT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GEM IS SLOW TO EJECT
THE LOW AND IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IS A TRACK
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. A LITTLE EARLY FOR HEADLINES DUE TO CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE AND
ANOTHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW
PACK MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN BUT SOME SUN WILL HELP.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED SUNDAY TO DIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON TIMING...HIGHS COULD BE EARLY IN THE DAY.
ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME SNOW TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS ARE BRINGING BITTER COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -20C...AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO. SOME OF THE RAW DATA
SUGGEST HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AS THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THEREFORE VFR IS FORECAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER NOTE
THAT SNOW WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
FROM 12-18Z ON THURSDAY...WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS /WEST TO EAST/ BEYOND THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-005-022>024-035-056-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS






000
FXUS63 KLBF 241713
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1113 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL MIGRATE EAST
TODAY AND REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB/NERN COLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
MODELS DEVELOP A THERMAL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. H850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 700MB AND BELOW. THE BANK OF STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND EXIT THE FCST AREA 21Z-
00Z.

GIVEN THE SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE STRATUS HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 30S. THIS A MARK DOWN FROM THE GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTED NEAR 40 IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 8C AT 850MB AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...700MB-500MB...WILL BUILD INTO NRN AND WRN NEB 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TO TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN WITH THE RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ON LAND FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS LEADS TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT LATER THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...BUT
AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IF THERE
IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 40S OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY STILL OVER
THE PACIFIC...OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THE
MODELS PUSH THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
POINT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST AND WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY.
THERE IS GOOD INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG ALMOST
STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO THE ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING AND ARE A
BIT WEAKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY MOVING UP ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS OF
LATE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SO THE FORECAST WILL SIDE ON THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM MODELS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION ISN/T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEING
PORTRAYED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT WON/T NEED EXTREMELY
STRONG LIFT TO ATTAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AS THE PV
ANOMALY MOVES BY...WHICH IS STRONGEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY DROP BELOW 0C PRIOR TO
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE NO CONCERNS
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND HAVE ONLY SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A
SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND THE TIMING FOR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY DROP THE SNOW SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING SOME INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF MONTANA FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
LIFT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT IS NOT BEING SEEN THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SO NOT ANTICIPATING REAL HEIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
FROM THIS SNOW AND THE FORECAST HAS USED A RANGE OF 11:1 TO 14:1.
THIS GIVES GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET AT THIS POINT...THERE WERE
ENOUGH SIGNALS TO POINT TO THE NEED FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SO DID TREND UPWARD IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE
PV ANOMALIES FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR
SATURDAY AND ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...WHICH IS INDICATING TO BE IN THE -3C TO -8C AT
850MB WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THEN LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS BEING PULLED SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AIR MASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. IF THIS PANS OUT...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...AS SOME OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER HIGHS AROUND
0F. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY BE WELL TOO WARM IF THIS COLDER AIR DOES
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AS THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THEREFORE VFR IS FORECAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER NOTE
THAT SNOW WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
FROM 12-18Z ON THURSDAY...WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS /WEST TO EAST/ BEYOND THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 241713
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1113 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL MIGRATE EAST
TODAY AND REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB/NERN COLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
MODELS DEVELOP A THERMAL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. H850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 700MB AND BELOW. THE BANK OF STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND EXIT THE FCST AREA 21Z-
00Z.

GIVEN THE SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE STRATUS HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 30S. THIS A MARK DOWN FROM THE GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTED NEAR 40 IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 8C AT 850MB AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...700MB-500MB...WILL BUILD INTO NRN AND WRN NEB 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TO TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN WITH THE RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ON LAND FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS LEADS TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT LATER THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...BUT
AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IF THERE
IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 40S OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY STILL OVER
THE PACIFIC...OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THE
MODELS PUSH THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
POINT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST AND WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY.
THERE IS GOOD INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG ALMOST
STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO THE ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING AND ARE A
BIT WEAKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY MOVING UP ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS OF
LATE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SO THE FORECAST WILL SIDE ON THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM MODELS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION ISN/T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEING
PORTRAYED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT WON/T NEED EXTREMELY
STRONG LIFT TO ATTAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AS THE PV
ANOMALY MOVES BY...WHICH IS STRONGEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY DROP BELOW 0C PRIOR TO
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE NO CONCERNS
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND HAVE ONLY SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A
SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND THE TIMING FOR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY DROP THE SNOW SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING SOME INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF MONTANA FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
LIFT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT IS NOT BEING SEEN THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SO NOT ANTICIPATING REAL HEIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
FROM THIS SNOW AND THE FORECAST HAS USED A RANGE OF 11:1 TO 14:1.
THIS GIVES GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET AT THIS POINT...THERE WERE
ENOUGH SIGNALS TO POINT TO THE NEED FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SO DID TREND UPWARD IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE
PV ANOMALIES FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR
SATURDAY AND ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...WHICH IS INDICATING TO BE IN THE -3C TO -8C AT
850MB WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THEN LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS BEING PULLED SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AIR MASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. IF THIS PANS OUT...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...AS SOME OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER HIGHS AROUND
0F. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY BE WELL TOO WARM IF THIS COLDER AIR DOES
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AS THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. THEREFORE VFR IS FORECAST
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER NOTE
THAT SNOW WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
FROM 12-18Z ON THURSDAY...WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS /WEST TO EAST/ BEYOND THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS











000
FXUS63 KLBF 241126 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
526 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL MIGRATE EAST
TODAY AND REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB/NERN COLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
MODELS DEVELOP A THERMAL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. H850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 700MB AND BELOW. THE BANK OF STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND EXIT THE FCST AREA 21Z-
00Z.

GIVEN THE SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE STRATUS HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 30S. THIS A MARK DOWN FROM THE GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTED NEAR 40 IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 8C AT 850MB AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...700MB-500MB...WILL BUILD INTO NRN AND WRN NEB 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TO TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN WITH THE RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ON LAND FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS LEADS TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT LATER THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...BUT
AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IF THERE
IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 40S OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY STILL OVER
THE PACIFIC...OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THE
MODELS PUSH THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
POINT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST AND WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY.
THERE IS GOOD INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG ALMOST
STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO THE ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING AND ARE A
BIT WEAKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY MOVING UP ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS OF
LATE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SO THE FORECAST WILL SIDE ON THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM MODELS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION ISN/T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEING
PORTRAYED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT WON/T NEED EXTREMELY
STRONG LIFT TO ATTAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AS THE PV
ANOMALY MOVES BY...WHICH IS STRONGEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY DROP BELOW 0C PRIOR TO
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE NO CONCERNS
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND HAVE ONLY SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A
SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND THE TIMING FOR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY DROP THE SNOW SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING SOME INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF MONTANA FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
LIFT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT IS NOT BEING SEEN THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SO NOT ANTICIPATING REAL HEIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
FROM THIS SNOW AND THE FORECAST HAS USED A RANGE OF 11:1 TO 14:1.
THIS GIVES GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET AT THIS POINT...THERE WERE
ENOUGH SIGNALS TO POINT TO THE NEED FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SO DID TREND UPWARD IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE
PV ANOMALIES FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR
SATURDAY AND ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...WHICH IS INDICATING TO BE IN THE -3C TO -8C AT
850MB WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THEN LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS BEING PULLED SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AIR MASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. IF THIS PANS OUT...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...AS SOME OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER HIGHS AROUND
0F. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY BE WELL TOO WARM IF THIS COLDER AIR DOES
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SATELLITE TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST THE AREA OF IFR CIGS NEAR KONL WILL
EXIT THE FCST AREA 22Z-01Z. THE FASTER TIME REPRESENTS EROSION
FROM SFC HEATING WHILE THE SLOWER TIME ASSUMES A STEADY STATE AND
NO DECAY. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS THEREAFTER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 241010 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
410 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL MIGRATE EAST
TODAY AND REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB/NERN COLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
MODELS DEVELOP A THERMAL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. H850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 700MB AND BELOW. THE BANK OF STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND EXIT THE FCST AREA 21Z-
00Z.

GIVEN THE SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE STRATUS HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 30S. THIS A MARK DOWN FROM THE GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTED NEAR 40 IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 8C AT 850MB AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...700MB-500MB...WILL BUILD INTO NRN AND WRN NEB 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TO TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN WITH THE RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ON LAND FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS LEADS TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT LATER THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...BUT
AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IF THERE
IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 40S OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY STILL OVER
THE PACIFIC...OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THE
MODELS PUSH THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
POINT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST AND WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY.
THERE IS GOOD INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG ALMOST
STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO THE ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING AND ARE A
BIT WEAKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY MOVING UP ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS OF
LATE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SO THE FORECAST WILL SIDE ON THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM MODELS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION ISN/T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEING
PORTRAYED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT WON/T NEED EXTREMELY
STRONG LIFT TO ATTAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AS THE PV
ANOMALY MOVES BY...WHICH IS STRONGEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY DROP BELOW 0C PRIOR TO
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE NO CONCERNS
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND HAVE ONLY SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A
SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND THE TIMING FOR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY DROP THE SNOW SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING SOME INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF MONTANA FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
LIFT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT IS NOT BEING SEEN THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SO NOT ANTICIPATING REAL HEIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
FROM THIS SNOW AND THE FORECAST HAS USED A RANGE OF 11:1 TO 14:1.
THIS GIVES GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET AT THIS POINT...THERE WERE
ENOUGH SIGNALS TO POINT TO THE NEED FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SO DID TREND UPWARD IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE
PV ANOMALIES FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR
SATURDAY AND ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...WHICH IS INDICATING TO BE IN THE -3C TO -8C AT
850MB WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THEN LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS BEING PULLED SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AIR MASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. IF THIS PANS OUT...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...AS SOME OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER HIGHS AROUND
0F. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY BE WELL TOO WARM IF THIS COLDER AIR DOES
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CEILINGS OF 1000-1500 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE WEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIND HAS ALREADY DECREASED TTO 12KT OR LOWER
MANY AREAS WITH A FEW SITES LIKE VTN AND LBF LESS THAN 10KT. THERE
IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THE TREND TO CHANGE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER











000
FXUS63 KLBF 241010 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
410 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL MIGRATE EAST
TODAY AND REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB/NERN COLO BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE
MODELS DEVELOP A THERMAL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. H850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 700MB AND BELOW. THE BANK OF STRATUS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND EXIT THE FCST AREA 21Z-
00Z.

GIVEN THE SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE STRATUS HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 30S. THIS A MARK DOWN FROM THE GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTED NEAR 40 IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 8C AT 850MB AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...700MB-500MB...WILL BUILD INTO NRN AND WRN NEB 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TO TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN WITH THE RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ON LAND FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS LEADS TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT LATER THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...BUT
AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IF THERE
IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 40S OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY STILL OVER
THE PACIFIC...OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THE
MODELS PUSH THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
POINT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST AND WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY.
THERE IS GOOD INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG ALMOST
STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO THE ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING AND ARE A
BIT WEAKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY MOVING UP ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS OF
LATE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SO THE FORECAST WILL SIDE ON THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM MODELS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION ISN/T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEING
PORTRAYED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT WON/T NEED EXTREMELY
STRONG LIFT TO ATTAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AS THE PV
ANOMALY MOVES BY...WHICH IS STRONGEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY DROP BELOW 0C PRIOR TO
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE NO CONCERNS
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND HAVE ONLY SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A
SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND THE TIMING FOR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY DROP THE SNOW SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING SOME INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF MONTANA FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
LIFT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT IS NOT BEING SEEN THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SO NOT ANTICIPATING REAL HEIGHT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
FROM THIS SNOW AND THE FORECAST HAS USED A RANGE OF 11:1 TO 14:1.
THIS GIVES GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES
AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET AT THIS POINT...THERE WERE
ENOUGH SIGNALS TO POINT TO THE NEED FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SO DID TREND UPWARD IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE
PV ANOMALIES FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR
SATURDAY AND ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...WHICH IS INDICATING TO BE IN THE -3C TO -8C AT
850MB WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THEN LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS BEING PULLED SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AIR MASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. IF THIS PANS OUT...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...AS SOME OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER HIGHS AROUND
0F. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY BE WELL TOO WARM IF THIS COLDER AIR DOES
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CEILINGS OF 1000-1500 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE WEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIND HAS ALREADY DECREASED TTO 12KT OR LOWER
MANY AREAS WITH A FEW SITES LIKE VTN AND LBF LESS THAN 10KT. THERE
IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THE TREND TO CHANGE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER












000
FXUS63 KLBF 241008
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL
MIGRATE EAST TODAY AND REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB/NERN COLO BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE MODELS DEVELOP A THERMAL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW.
H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 700MB AND BELOW. THE BANK OF STRATUS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND EXIT THE FCST
AREA 21Z-00Z.

GIVEN THE SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE STRATUS HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 30S. THIS A MARK DOWN FROM THE GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTED NEAR 40 IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 8C AT 850MB AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...700MB-500MB...WILL BUILD INTO NRN AND WRN NEB 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TO TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN WITH THE RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ON LAND FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS LEADS TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT LATER THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...BUT
AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IF THERE
IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 40S OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY STILL OVER
THE PACIFIC...OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THE
MODELS PUSH THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
POINT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST AND WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY.
THERE IS GOOD INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG ALMOST
STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO THE ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING AND ARE A
BIT WEAKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY MOVING UP ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS OF
LATE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SO THE FORECAST WILL SIDE ON THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM MODELS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION ISN/T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEING
PORTRAYED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT WON/T NEED EXTREMELY
STRONG LIFT TO ATTAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AS THE PV
ANOMALY MOVES BY...WHICH IS STRONGEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY DROP BELOW 0C PRIOR TO
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE NO CONCERNS
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND HAVE ONLY SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND THE TIMING FOR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY DROP THE SNOW SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING SOME INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF MONTANA FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST LIFT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT IS NOT BEING SEEN THROUGH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO NOT ANTICIPATING REAL HEIGHT SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THIS SNOW AND THE FORECAST HAS USED A RANGE OF
11:1 TO 14:1. THIS GIVES GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET AT THIS POINT...THERE WERE
ENOUGH SIGNALS TO POINT TO THE NEED FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SO DID TREND UPWARD IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE
PV ANOMALIES FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR
SATURDAY AND ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...WHICH IS INDICATING TO BE IN THE -3C TO -8C AT
850MB WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THEN LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS BEING PULLED SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AIR MASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. IF THIS PANS OUT...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...AS SOME OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER HIGHS AROUND
0F. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY BE WELL TOO WARM IF THIS COLDER AIR DOES
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CEILINGS OF 1000-1500 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE WEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIND HAS ALREADY DECREASED TTO 12KT OR LOWER
MANY AREAS WITH A FEW SITES LIKE VTN AND LBF LESS THAN 10KT. THERE
IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THE TREND TO CHANGE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER










000
FXUS63 KLBF 241008
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL
MIGRATE EAST TODAY AND REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB/NERN COLO BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THE MODELS DEVELOP A THERMAL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW.
H850MB TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 700MB AND BELOW. THE BANK OF STRATUS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND EXIT THE FCST
AREA 21Z-00Z.

GIVEN THE SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE STRATUS HIGHS TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 30S. THIS A MARK DOWN FROM THE GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTED NEAR 40 IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT...THE THERMAL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 8C AT 850MB AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...700MB-500MB...WILL BUILD INTO NRN AND WRN NEB 06Z-12Z
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT LOWS TO TEENS AND 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE WITH SNOW
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN WITH THE RETURN OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.

MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING ON LAND FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THIS LEADS TO LOWERED
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT LATER THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY...BUT
AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. IF THERE
IS ENOUGH SUNSHINE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE MID 40S OR EVEN A BIT HIGHER IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IS CURRENTLY STILL OVER
THE PACIFIC...OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST. THE
MODELS PUSH THIS SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
POINT...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST AND WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY.
THERE IS GOOD INDICATION THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG ALMOST
STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO THE ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EJECTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MAIN LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING AND ARE A
BIT WEAKER WITH THE PV ANOMALY MOVING UP ACROSS NEBRASKA. AS OF
LATE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA SO THE FORECAST WILL SIDE ON THE SLOWER ECMWF/GEM MODELS.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION ISN/T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEING
PORTRAYED BY THE MODELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 125
PERCENT OF NORMAL HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT WON/T NEED EXTREMELY
STRONG LIFT TO ATTAIN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A DECENT FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IN THE MODELS AS THE PV
ANOMALY MOVES BY...WHICH IS STRONGEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY DROP BELOW 0C PRIOR TO
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...SO AT THIS TIME HAVE NO CONCERNS
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE AND HAVE ONLY SNOW IN THE FORECAST. A SECOND WAVE OF ENERGY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND THE TIMING FOR SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY DROP THE SNOW SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THE ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING SOME INTERACTION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF MONTANA FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST LIFT THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT IS NOT BEING SEEN THROUGH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO NOT ANTICIPATING REAL HEIGHT SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS FROM THIS SNOW AND THE FORECAST HAS USED A RANGE OF
11:1 TO 14:1. THIS GIVES GENERAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DETAILS OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET AT THIS POINT...THERE WERE
ENOUGH SIGNALS TO POINT TO THE NEED FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SO DID TREND UPWARD IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSING OF THE
PV ANOMALIES FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOOKING FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR
SATURDAY AND ALONG WITH THIS WILL BE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
THE COLDER AIR...WHICH IS INDICATING TO BE IN THE -3C TO -8C AT
850MB WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

THEN LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS BEING PULLED SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AIR MASS IS SUGGESTIVE OF 850MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE -20C TO -30C RANGE. IF THIS PANS OUT...WILL BE LOOKING FOR
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON...AS SOME OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE WOULD GIVE AREAS WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER HIGHS AROUND
0F. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED DOWNWARD IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES...BUT MAY BE WELL TOO WARM IF THIS COLDER AIR DOES
MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CEILINGS OF 1000-1500 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE WEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIND HAS ALREADY DECREASED TTO 12KT OR LOWER
MANY AREAS WITH A FEW SITES LIKE VTN AND LBF LESS THAN 10KT. THERE
IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THE TREND TO CHANGE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER









000
FXUS63 KLBF 240515
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AT H5 CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LARGE AREA OF SNOW FROM
WISCONSIN TO NORTHEAST COLORADO. BUILDING BERMUDA RIDGE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM EAST TEXAS TO FLORIDA.
STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE FROM BUILDING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF
CANADA. CLOSED GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVING INTO VANCOUVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WITH SNOW COVER IN THE SANDHILLS...CLEARING SKY AND DECREASING
WIND...WE WILL LOWER THE EXPECTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST...WHICH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  BANDED SNOW
STRUCTURES THAT CURRENTLY ARE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO  DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  EXTENSIONS
OF OUR CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...AM NOT ANTICIPATING A EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE HEADLINES
EITHER...AS NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER CONTINUE TO
CREATE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.  THE HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z
THIS EVENING.

TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING WILL NOSE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CALMER CONDITIONS.  SNOW
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  WHERE
A FRESH SNOWPACK LIES /NW NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS/...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TANK.  WILL UNDERCUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THIS AREA....WHICH SUGGESTS
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS.  ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH CLOUDINESS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  ON
WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY...YIELDING
CALMER CONDITIONS.  A CRAIG COLORADO HIGH TAKES UP
RESIDENCE...PROVIDING FOR A GENERAL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MID 30S RETURNING TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  ONCE
AGAIN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.  OTHERWISE WITH SINKING AIR IN
PLACE...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.  A
POTENTIAL CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT THE NAM KEEPS THE BL SATURATED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH STRATUS KEEPING BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS IN CHECK...ATTM...FAVORING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE GFS
IS SUGGESTING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. WILL
USE A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS THROUGH THE MID TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF
FOR THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS 850MB
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DIVERGE FROM THERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM BUT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND 20 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE
TO THE CLEARING. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF START OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FROM 12Z
9C TO -5C BY 23Z. H5 WAVE IS OPEN AND POSITIVELY TILTED. STRONG
250MB JET 120KT+ FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EAST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND 850MB LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL EJECT SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM CHAPPELL TO
ONEILL. FAST MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE GONE WITH HPCQPF AND A 13:1
RATIO. GIVES ABOUT 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE. SURFACE LO OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS DEEPENS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY AND IF ANYTHING SHOULD LIMIT NORTHEAST PROGRESSION
COULD PUT OUT MORE SNOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM AND
COULD SEE AREAS OF BLOWING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A FALLING THROUGH THE DAY PATTERN. 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -12C THROUGH FRIDAY MIDNIGHT AND THEN WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH COLDER
GUIDANCE OVER SNOW COVERED AREA AND CLEARING SKIES. NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR. HAVE GONE FAIRLY DRY WITH THE FRONT FOR NOW AND TEMPERATURES
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MONDAY AND TEENS ON
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE COLDER. JUST TRENDING DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CEILINGS OF 1000-1500 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE WEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE MISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIND HAS ALREADY DECREASED TTO 12KT OR LOWER
MANY AREAS WITH A FEW SITES LIKE VTN AND LBF LESS THAN 10KT. THERE
IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THE TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 240515
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AT H5 CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LARGE AREA OF SNOW FROM
WISCONSIN TO NORTHEAST COLORADO. BUILDING BERMUDA RIDGE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM EAST TEXAS TO FLORIDA.
STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGE FROM BUILDING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF
CANADA. CLOSED GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVING INTO VANCOUVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WITH SNOW COVER IN THE SANDHILLS...CLEARING SKY AND DECREASING
WIND...WE WILL LOWER THE EXPECTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST...WHICH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  BANDED SNOW
STRUCTURES THAT CURRENTLY ARE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO  DECREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  EXTENSIONS
OF OUR CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...AM NOT ANTICIPATING A EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE HEADLINES
EITHER...AS NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER CONTINUE TO
CREATE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.  THE HEADLINES WILL EXPIRE AT 00Z
THIS EVENING.

TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING WILL NOSE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND CALMER CONDITIONS.  SNOW
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  WHERE
A FRESH SNOWPACK LIES /NW NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS/...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO TANK.  WILL UNDERCUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THIS AREA....WHICH SUGGESTS
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS.  ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH CLOUDINESS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.  ON
WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SIGNIFICANTLY...YIELDING
CALMER CONDITIONS.  A CRAIG COLORADO HIGH TAKES UP
RESIDENCE...PROVIDING FOR A GENERAL WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WIND FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF MID 30S RETURNING TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.  ONCE
AGAIN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.  OTHERWISE WITH SINKING AIR IN
PLACE...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.  A
POTENTIAL CONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT THE NAM KEEPS THE BL SATURATED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH STRATUS KEEPING BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS IN CHECK...ATTM...FAVORING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE GFS
IS SUGGESTING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. WILL
USE A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS THROUGH THE MID TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF
FOR THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS 850MB
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN DIVERGE FROM THERE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM BUT SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND 20 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST DUE
TO THE CLEARING. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE MORNING. HAVE HELD OFF START OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FROM 12Z
9C TO -5C BY 23Z. H5 WAVE IS OPEN AND POSITIVELY TILTED. STRONG
250MB JET 120KT+ FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EAST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND 850MB LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG BERMUDA HIGH WILL EJECT SYSTEM
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM CHAPPELL TO
ONEILL. FAST MOVING SYSTEM. HAVE GONE WITH HPCQPF AND A 13:1
RATIO. GIVES ABOUT 3 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LINE. SURFACE LO OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS DEEPENS QUICKLY THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY AND IF ANYTHING SHOULD LIMIT NORTHEAST PROGRESSION
COULD PUT OUT MORE SNOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM AND
COULD SEE AREAS OF BLOWING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SNOW ENDS FRIDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH A FALLING THROUGH THE DAY PATTERN. 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -12C THROUGH FRIDAY MIDNIGHT AND THEN WE GET ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW AND
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE GONE WITH COLDER
GUIDANCE OVER SNOW COVERED AREA AND CLEARING SKIES. NEXT COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR. HAVE GONE FAIRLY DRY WITH THE FRONT FOR NOW AND TEMPERATURES
ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S MONDAY AND TEENS ON
TUESDAY BUT COULD BE COLDER. JUST TRENDING DOWN FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

CEILINGS OF 1000-1500 FEET AGL WILL CONTINUE ERODING FROM THE WEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE MISSIPPI VALLEY AND
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WIND HAS ALREADY DECREASED TTO 12KT OR LOWER
MANY AREAS WITH A FEW SITES LIKE VTN AND LBF LESS THAN 10KT. THERE
IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THE TREND TO CHANGE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER








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