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000
FXUS63 KLBF 250545
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAIN CONCERN WITH FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE WINDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. STILL HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SEVERAL PLACES AND JUST
UNDER AT SEVERAL OTHERS SO WILL CONTINUE NPW THROUGH 00Z. TONIGHT
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. STILL DEEP MOISTURE
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE WITH CLOUDS STUBBORN TO BURN OFF. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALONG THE DRY LINE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE WITH
HIGHER GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH CENTRAL TO AROUND 90
SOUTHWEST. SIMILAR PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WOULD AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN THE AM WITH A
QUICKER BURN OFF AND DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE THEN PROCEEDING NORTHEAST OVER
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS...THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INSTABILITY BUILT UP BY DIURNAL HEATING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS IT VEERS OFF TO THE EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DIFFLUENT THICKNESS FIELDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY INTO AN MCS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY...WHEN STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S CREATE
FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
A WARM FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO RUN NEAR I80...THEN WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...LLJ
WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A WARM FRONT AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME
POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

STRATUS WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER THE TSTMS
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REAIN AT LEAST
MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
MID MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR


000
FXUS63 KLBF 242342
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
642 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAIN CONCERN WITH FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE WINDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. STILL HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SEVERAL PLACES AND JUST
UNDER AT SEVERAL OTHERS SO WILL CONTINUE NPW THROUGH 00Z. TONIGHT
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. STILL DEEP MOISTURE
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE WITH CLOUDS STUBBORN TO BURN OFF. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALONG THE DRY LINE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE WITH
HIGHER GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH CENTRAL TO AROUND 90
SOUTHWEST. SIMILAR PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WOULD AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN THE AM WITH A
QUICKER BURN OFF AND DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE THEN PROCEEDING NORTHEAST OVER
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS...THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INSTABILITY BUILT UP BY DIURNAL HEATING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS IT VEERS OFF TO THE EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DIFFLUENT THICKNESS FIELDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY INTO AN MCS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY...WHEN STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S CREATE
FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
A WARM FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO RUN NEAR I80...THEN WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...LLJ
WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A WARM FRONT AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME
POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

TSTMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB THROUGH THE
EVENING...POSSIBLE AFFECTING THE KLBF TAF SITE. STRATUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATER...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA. MVRF AND LOCAL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO
20 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-
038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR


000
FXUS63 KLBF 242038
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAIN CONCERN WITH FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE WINDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. STILL HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SEVERAL PLACES AND JUST
UNDER AT SEVERAL OTHERS SO WILL CONTINUE NPW THROUGH 00Z. TONIGHT
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. STILL DEEP MOISTURE
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE WITH CLOUDS STUBBORN TO BURN OFF. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALONG THE DRY LINE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE WITH
HIGHER GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH CENTRAL TO AROUND 90
SOUTHWEST. SIMILAR PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WOULD AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN THE AM WITH A
QUICKER BURN OFF AND DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE THEN PROCEEDING NORTHEAST OVER
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS...THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INSTABILITY BUILT UP BY DIURNAL HEATING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS IT VEERS OFF TO THE EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DIFFLUENT THICKNESS FIELDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY INTO AN MCS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY...WHEN STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S CREATE
FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
A WARM FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO RUN NEAR I80...THEN WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...LLJ
WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A WARM FRONT AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME
POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA AT KLBF SITE SO
HAVE INCLUDED IN TEMPO. CEILINGS LIFT INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN FALL THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-
038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER


000
FXUS63 KLBF 241741
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AT 08Z...ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. FROM THE LOW IN
COLORADO...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HAD SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT
INDICATED IN THE WSR-88 RADAR WIND PROFILERS. THE DODGE CITY
SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY EVENING WOULD INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
AN INCH OR HIGHER RIDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE TAKEN A JUMP IN THE LAST HOUR. ADDED 3 DEGREES F ACROSS THE
BOARD FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS CONTINUE STRONG OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY. ECHOES
MOVING THROUGH THE MC COOK AREA LOOK ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS EXPANDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS WE BEGAN TO MIX.
SEVERAL SITES NOW ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SO PUT OUT A SHORT FUSED
ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. CUT BACK ON HIGHS SLIGHTLY AND INCREASED WINDS SOME.
TOOK THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL GIVE A
FOCUS FOR MOIST AIR LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR (SB-CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 3000J/KG)... CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP (0-6KM AGL) BULK SHEAR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL NOT BE REAL STRONG (ON THE ORDER OF 35-45KT). STILL...SINCE THE
STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT 10-15KT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FAVORS
ROTATION...THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. IT
APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE GREATEST RISK IS HEAVY RAIN WITH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WANING IN WAKE OF EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN ADDITIONAL TSTM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...THIS DUE TO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT STORMS
LIKELY HAVING AN IMPACT ON BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE GEM
REGIONAL MODEL WAS PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
HAVE A FAIRLY DEFINED WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM IS
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM REGIONAL IS FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
FEEL THE GEM REGIONAL FARTHER SOUTH SCENARIO IS BEST...AS THE FRONT
LIKELY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH SOME BY THE FRIDAY NIGHT COMPLEX. IF
CONVECTION IS LESS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE FRONT MAY END UP SOMEWHAT
FARTHER NORTH. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40 KTS OR
GREATER DUE TO BACKED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST UPPER
LEVEL LOW AROUND PEAK HEATING/EARLY EVENING...WILL GIVE THE NEEDED
LIFT TO GET TSTMS GOING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ADEQUATE TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DETERMINE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. IF SFC BASED STORMS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE NEAR
THE FRONT...THEN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AS A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY EVENING.

CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE NEARLY DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL BE...BUT EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE EACH DAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT AGAIN EACH DAYS STORMS WILL
DICTATE WHERE THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE NEXT DAY WILL BE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WARM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA AT KLBF SITE SO
HAVE INCLUDED IN TEMPO. CEILINGS LIFT INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN FALL THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-
038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER


000
FXUS63 KLBF 241518 AAB
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1018 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AT 08Z...ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. FROM THE LOW IN
COLORADO...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HAD SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT
INDICATED IN THE WSR-88 RADAR WIND PROFILERS. THE DODGE CITY
SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY EVENING WOULD INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
AN INCH OR HIGHER RIDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

WINDS EXPANDED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS WE BEGAN TO MIX.
SEVERAL SITES NOW ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA SO PUT OUT A SHORT FUSED
ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. CUT BACK ON HIGHS SLIGHTLY AND INCREASED WINDS SOME.
TOOK THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL GIVE A
FOCUS FOR MOIST AIR LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR (SB-CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 3000J/KG)... CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP (0-6KM AGL) BULK SHEAR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL NOT BE REAL STRONG (ON THE ORDER OF 35-45KT). STILL...SINCE THE
STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT 10-15KT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FAVORS
ROTATION...THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. IT
APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE GREATEST RISK IS HEAVY RAIN WITH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WANING IN WAKE OF EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN ADDITIONAL TSTM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...THIS DUE TO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT STORMS
LIKELY HAVING AN IMPACT ON BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE GEM
REGIONAL MODEL WAS PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
HAVE A FAIRLY DEFINED WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM IS
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM REGIONAL IS FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
FEEL THE GEM REGIONAL FARTHER SOUTH SCENARIO IS BEST...AS THE FRONT
LIKELY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH SOME BY THE FRIDAY NIGHT COMPLEX. IF
CONVECTION IS LESS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE FRONT MAY END UP SOMEWHAT
FARTHER NORTH. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40 KTS OR
GREATER DUE TO BACKED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST UPPER
LEVEL LOW AROUND PEAK HEATING/EARLY EVENING...WILL GIVE THE NEEDED
LIFT TO GET TSTMS GOING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ADEQUATE TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DETERMINE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. IF SFC BASED STORMS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE NEAR
THE FRONT...THEN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AS A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY EVENING.

CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE NEARLY DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL BE...BUT EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE EACH DAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT AGAIN EACH DAYS STORMS WILL
DICTATE WHERE THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE NEXT DAY WILL BE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WARM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IS LIKELY
TO BRING THE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 1000-2000 FEET AGL...FIRST AT
LBF AND WEST AROUND 13Z AND THEN VTN AND WEST AROUND 15Z. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH CEILINGS MAY GO ABOVE 2000
FEET AGL. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BRING HIGHER CEILINGS TO
IML...OGA AND LBF FROM 00-03Z THEN BBW AND POSSIBLY TIF 03-06Z. HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AND WIND NEAR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AND MAY GUST OVER 45KT.

LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-
038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER


000
FXUS63 KLBF 241454 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
954 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AT 08Z...ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. FROM THE LOW IN
COLORADO...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HAD SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT
INDICATED IN THE WSR-88 RADAR WIND PROFILERS. THE DODGE CITY
SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY EVENING WOULD INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
AN INCH OR HIGHER RIDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. CUT BACK ON HIGHS SLIGHTLY AND INCREASED WINDS SOME.
TOOK THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL GIVE A
FOCUS FOR MOIST AIR LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR (SB-CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 3000J/KG)... CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP (0-6KM AGL) BULK SHEAR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL NOT BE REAL STRONG (ON THE ORDER OF 35-45KT). STILL...SINCE THE
STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT 10-15KT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FAVORS
ROTATION...THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. IT
APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE GREATEST RISK IS HEAVY RAIN WITH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WANING IN WAKE OF EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN ADDITIONAL TSTM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...THIS DUE TO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT STORMS
LIKELY HAVING AN IMPACT ON BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE GEM
REGIONAL MODEL WAS PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
HAVE A FAIRLY DEFINED WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM IS
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM REGIONAL IS FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
FEEL THE GEM REGIONAL FARTHER SOUTH SCENARIO IS BEST...AS THE FRONT
LIKELY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH SOME BY THE FRIDAY NIGHT COMPLEX. IF
CONVECTION IS LESS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE FRONT MAY END UP SOMEWHAT
FARTHER NORTH. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40 KTS OR
GREATER DUE TO BACKED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST UPPER
LEVEL LOW AROUND PEAK HEATING/EARLY EVENING...WILL GIVE THE NEEDED
LIFT TO GET TSTMS GOING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ADEQUATE TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DETERMINE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. IF SFC BASED STORMS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE NEAR
THE FRONT...THEN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AS A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY EVENING.

CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE NEARLY DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL BE...BUT EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE EACH DAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT AGAIN EACH DAYS STORMS WILL
DICTATE WHERE THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE NEXT DAY WILL BE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WARM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IS LIKELY
TO BRING THE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 1000-2000 FEET AGL...FIRST AT
LBF AND WEST AROUND 13Z AND THEN VTN AND WEST AROUND 15Z. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH CEILINGS MAY GO ABOVE 2000
FEET AGL. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BRING HIGHER CEILINGS TO
IML...OGA AND LBF FROM 00-03Z THEN BBW AND POSSIBLY TIF 03-06Z. HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AND WIND NEAR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AND MAY GUST OVER 45KT.

LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER


000
FXUS63 KLBF 241133
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AT 08Z...ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. FROM THE LOW IN
COLORADO...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HAD SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT
INDICATED IN THE WSR-88 RADAR WIND PROFILERS. THE DODGE CITY
SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY EVENING WOULD INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
AN INCH OR HIGHER RIDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL GIVE A
FOCUS FOR MOIST AIR LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR (SB-CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 3000J/KG)... CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP (0-6KM AGL) BULK SHEAR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL NOT BE REAL STRONG (ON THE ORDER OF 35-45KT). STILL...SINCE THE
STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT 10-15KT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FAVORS
ROTATION...THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. IT
APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE GREATEST RISK IS HEAVY RAIN WITH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WANING IN WAKE OF EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN ADDITIONAL TSTM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...THIS DUE TO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT STORMS
LIKELY HAVING AN IMPACT ON BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE GEM
REGIONAL MODEL WAS PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
HAVE A FAIRLY DEFINED WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM IS
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM REGIONAL IS FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
FEEL THE GEM REGIONAL FARTHER SOUTH SCENARIO IS BEST...AS THE FRONT
LIKELY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH SOME BY THE FRIDAY NIGHT COMPLEX. IF
CONVECTION IS LESS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE FRONT MAY END UP SOMEWHAT
FARTHER NORTH. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40 KTS OR
GREATER DUE TO BACKED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST UPPER
LEVEL LOW AROUND PEAK HEATING/EARLY EVENING...WILL GIVE THE NEEDED
LIFT TO GET TSTMS GOING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ADEQUATE TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DETERMINE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. IF SFC BASED STORMS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE NEAR
THE FRONT...THEN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AS A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY EVENING.

CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE NEARLY DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL BE...BUT EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE EACH DAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT AGAIN EACH DAYS STORMS WILL
DICTATE WHERE THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE NEXT DAY WILL BE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WARM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

STRATUS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND IS LIKELY
TO BRING THE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS OF 1000-2000 FEET AGL...FIRST AT
LBF AND WEST AROUND 13Z AND THEN VTN AND WEST AROUND 15Z. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH CEILINGS MAY GO ABOVE 2000
FEET AGL. THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BRING HIGHER CEILINGS TO
IML...OGA AND LBF FROM 00-03Z THEN BBW AND POSSIBLY TIF 03-06Z. HAIL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...AND WIND NEAR THE STORMS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AND MAY GUST OVER 45KT.

LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE STORMS CLEAR THE AREA...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER


000
FXUS63 KLBF 240837
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
337 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

AT 08Z...ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN
NORTHWEST COLORADO AND OVER CENTRAL WYOMING. FROM THE LOW IN
COLORADO...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S HAD SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON A LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50KT
INDICATED IN THE WSR-88 RADAR WIND PROFILERS. THE DODGE CITY
SOUNDING FROM YESTERDAY EVENING WOULD INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER OF
AN INCH OR HIGHER RIDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL GIVE A
FOCUS FOR MOIST AIR LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR (SB-CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 3000J/KG)... CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP (0-6KM AGL) BULK SHEAR OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL NOT BE REAL STRONG (ON THE ORDER OF 35-45KT). STILL...SINCE THE
STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AT 10-15KT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FAVORS
ROTATION...THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. IT
APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE GREATEST RISK IS HEAVY RAIN WITH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE EVENING AND PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE IN TERMS OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE WANING IN WAKE OF EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN ADDITIONAL TSTM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME IT IS UNCLEAR WHERE THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...THIS DUE TO EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT STORMS
LIKELY HAVING AN IMPACT ON BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE GEM
REGIONAL MODEL WAS PREFERRED OVER THE NAM...AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS
HAVE A FAIRLY DEFINED WARM FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NAM IS
FOCUSED MORE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH THE FRONT...WHILE
THE GEM REGIONAL IS FARTHER SOUTH...MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
FEEL THE GEM REGIONAL FARTHER SOUTH SCENARIO IS BEST...AS THE FRONT
LIKELY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH SOME BY THE FRIDAY NIGHT COMPLEX. IF
CONVECTION IS LESS FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE FRONT MAY END UP SOMEWHAT
FARTHER NORTH. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40 KTS OR
GREATER DUE TO BACKED EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
GFS INDICATES A SUBTLE WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST COAST UPPER
LEVEL LOW AROUND PEAK HEATING/EARLY EVENING...WILL GIVE THE NEEDED
LIFT TO GET TSTMS GOING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SO THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ADEQUATE TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT A TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. AGAIN...LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DETERMINE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. IF SFC BASED STORMS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE NEAR
THE FRONT...THEN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AS A HEALTHY SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY EVENING.

CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE NEARLY DAILY SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN
WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL BE...BUT EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE EACH DAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT AGAIN EACH DAYS STORMS WILL
DICTATE WHERE THE BEST FOCUS FOR THE NEXT DAY WILL BE.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WARM PERIOD EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S AND 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S WEST TO 60S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AT BOTH THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 800 AGL IN THE SOUTHWEST TO 1500 FT AGL IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THEY WILL THEN LIFT TO 3000 TO 5000 FT AGL BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AFTER 02Z
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THEY WILL
OCCUR AT THE LBF TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
AREA. WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE
KLBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER


000
FXUS63 KLBF 240534
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND
ITS EXPECTED ONSET IN THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM
SOLN THIS EVENING HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF STRATUS TO THE
EAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AS SERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE BREEZY AND WILL ONLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE DECENT MIXING AND THE
ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD MORNING AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST TONIGHT FROM WESTERN
KANSAS ANS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. SKIES TO BECOME
OVERCAST MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK. REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...DELAYED
ONSET OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL AFTER 06Z FOR AREAS WEST OF
VTN THROUGH BBW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE FROM COLORADO WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON FRIDAY...PASSING DISTURBANCE TO BRING CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS 40-50 PERCENT
EAST OF HWY 83. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST.
GFS AND NAM INDICATED A MOSTLY SATURATED LAYER FROM SFC THROUGH
800MB. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES TOWARD THE
COOLEST MET GUIDANCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH HIGHS FROM
66 TO 69. FAR WEST TIER OF COUNTIES FCST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S
AS CEILINGS LIFT AND PARTIAL LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING. ANOTHER MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR A LINE FROM KBFF-KSNY-KITR. AREAS
75 MILES EAST AND WEST OF THIS LINE ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SWRN NEBR. RICH THETA-E ADVECTION INDICATED BY
NAM AND GFS INTO THIS REGION ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 50S W/BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20KTS. THIS
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE END OF THE WEEK IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTS...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS IN THE PLAINS REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...PUTTING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL SETUP LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN EASTERN CO AND THE NE PANHANDLE.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS...HOWEVER THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MOST OF
THESE WAVES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE
INSTABILITY BUILT UP BY DIURNAL HEATING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING. THE
PRESENCE OF A 30-40KT LLJ WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS IT VEERS OFF TO THE EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE SEVERE
THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG HEATING...WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA BUT STILL COOLER IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. THE
HEATING WILL MAKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2K J/KG...AND COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES EAST.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE GFS EJECTING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z EC DIGGING A TROUGH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AT BOTH THE KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS
WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 800 AGL IN THE SOUTHWEST TO 1500 FT AGL IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THEY WILL THEN LIFT TO 3000 TO 5000 FT AGL BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AFTER 02Z
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THEY WILL
OCCUR AT THE LBF TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
AREA. WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...INCREASING TO
20 TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY. SOME WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING AT THE
KLBF TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER


000
FXUS63 KLBF 240251
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
951 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST AND
ITS EXPECTED ONSET IN THE CENTRAL CWA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM
SOLN THIS EVENING HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF STRATUS TO THE
EAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AS SERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE BREEZY AND WILL ONLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S REMAIN ON TRACK WITH THE DECENT MIXING AND THE
ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD MORNING AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST TONIGHT FROM WESTERN
KANSAS ANS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. SKIES TO BECOME
OVERCAST MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK. REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...DELAYED
ONSET OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL AFTER 06Z FOR AREAS WEST OF
VTN THROUGH BBW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE FROM COLORADO WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON FRIDAY...PASSING DISTURBANCE TO BRING CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS 40-50 PERCENT
EAST OF HWY 83. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST.
GFS AND NAM INDICATED A MOSTLY SATURATED LAYER FROM SFC THROUGH
800MB. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES TOWARD THE
COOLEST MET GUIDANCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH HIGHS FROM
66 TO 69. FAR WEST TIER OF COUNTIES FCST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S
AS CEILINGS LIFT AND PARTIAL LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING. ANOTHER MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR A LINE FROM KBFF-KSNY-KITR. AREAS
75 MILES EAST AND WEST OF THIS LINE ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SWRN NEBR. RICH THETA-E ADVECTION INDICATED BY
NAM AND GFS INTO THIS REGION ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 50S W/BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20KTS. THIS
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE END OF THE WEEK IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTS...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS IN THE PLAINS REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...PUTTING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL SETUP LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN EASTERN CO AND THE NE PANHANDLE.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS...HOWEVER THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MOST OF
THESE WAVES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE
INSTABILITY BUILT UP BY DIURNAL HEATING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING. THE
PRESENCE OF A 30-40KT LLJ WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS IT VEERS OFF TO THE EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE SEVERE
THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG HEATING...WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA BUT STILL COOLER IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. THE
HEATING WILL MAKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2K J/KG...AND COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES EAST.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE GFS EJECTING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z EC DIGGING A TROUGH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LEADING TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT...AND FROM 20 TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST
OVERNIGHT WITH BROKEN CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MAY IMPACT THE KLBF TERMINAL AFTER 08Z. CIGS AT TEH
KLBF TERMINAL WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 4000 FT AGL WITH THE LOWEST
CIGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z FRIDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM 1500 TO 3000 AGL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CLB


000
FXUS63 KLBF 232314
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
614 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST TONIGHT FROM WESTERN
KANSAS ANS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. SKIES TO BECOME
OVERCAST MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK. REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...DELAYED
ONSET OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL AFTER 06Z FOR AREAS WEST OF
VTN THROUGH BBW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE FROM COLORADO WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON FRIDAY...PASSING DISTURBANCE TO BRING CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS 40-50 PERCENT
EAST OF HWY 83. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST.
GFS AND NAM INDICATED A MOSTLY SATURATED LAYER FROM SFC THROUGH
800MB. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES TOWARD THE
COOLEST MET GUIDANCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH HIGHS FROM
66 TO 69. FAR WEST TIER OF COUNTIES FCST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S
AS CEILINGS LIFT AND PARTIAL LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING. ANOTHER MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR A LINE FROM KBFF-KSNY-KITR. AREAS
75 MILES EAST AND WEST OF THIS LINE ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SWRN NEBR. RICH THETA-E ADVECTION INDICATED BY
NAM AND GFS INTO THIS REGION ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 50S W/BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20KTS. THIS
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE END OF THE WEEK IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTS...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS IN THE PLAINS REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...PUTTING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL SETUP LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN EASTERN CO AND THE NE PANHANDLE.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS...HOWEVER THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MOST OF
THESE WAVES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE
INSTABILITY BUILT UP BY DIURNAL HEATING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING. THE
PRESENCE OF A 30-40KT LLJ WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS IT VEERS OFF TO THE EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE SEVERE
THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG HEATING...WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA BUT STILL COOLER IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. THE
HEATING WILL MAKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2K J/KG...AND COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES EAST.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE GFS EJECTING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z EC DIGGING A TROUGH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK GOING FORWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LEADING TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT...AND FROM 20 TO 30 KTS ON FRIDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST
OVERNIGHT WITH BROKEN CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MAY IMPACT THE KLBF TERMINAL AFTER 08Z. CIGS AT TEH
KLBF TERMINAL WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 4000 FT AGL WITH THE LOWEST
CIGS BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z FRIDAY. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM 1500 TO 3000 AGL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CLB


000
FXUS63 KLBF 232004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWEST TONIGHT FROM WESTERN
KANSAS ANS EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. SKIES TO BECOME
OVERCAST MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK. REGARDING RAIN CHANCES...DELAYED
ONSET OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS UNTIL AFTER 06Z FOR AREAS WEST OF
VTN THROUGH BBW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE FROM COLORADO WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON FRIDAY...PASSING DISTURBANCE TO BRING CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST POPS 40-50 PERCENT
EAST OF HWY 83. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST.
GFS AND NAM INDICATED A MOSTLY SATURATED LAYER FROM SFC THROUGH
800MB. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES TOWARD THE
COOLEST MET GUIDANCE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WITH HIGHS FROM
66 TO 69. FAR WEST TIER OF COUNTIES FCST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S
AS CEILINGS LIFT AND PARTIAL LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING. ANOTHER MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY NEAR A LINE FROM KBFF-KSNY-KITR. AREAS
75 MILES EAST AND WEST OF THIS LINE ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF SWRN NEBR. RICH THETA-E ADVECTION INDICATED BY
NAM AND GFS INTO THIS REGION ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 50S W/BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20KTS. THIS
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE END OF THE WEEK IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTS...WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS IN THE PLAINS REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...PUTTING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL SETUP LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN EASTERN CO AND THE NE PANHANDLE.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS...HOWEVER THE PRIMARY AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH MOST OF
THESE WAVES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MAIN LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE
INSTABILITY BUILT UP BY DIURNAL HEATING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING. THE
PRESENCE OF A 30-40KT LLJ WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AS IT VEERS OFF TO THE EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE SEVERE
THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG HEATING...WITH HIGHS PUSHING THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA BUT STILL COOLER IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. THE
HEATING WILL MAKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2K J/KG...AND COUPLED WITH 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
IT MOVES EAST.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
ON THEIR HANDLING OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE GFS EJECTING A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z EC DIGGING A TROUGH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK GOING FORWARD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY )
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION... THE
RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF. CONTINUED STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS TO
SLOWLY LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15G25KT
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG


000
FXUS63 KLBF 231144
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
644 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AT 08Z...THE MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WERE CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE
FORCED ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

CLOUDINESS WILL PROBABLY BE PERSISTENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING...AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF WYOMING AND
INTO MONTANA...A WARM FRONT RE-FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WARM
ADVECTION WILL THEN LIFT AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND BRING SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW WILL BE MODEST...WITH H5 SPEEDS
AROUND 35 KTS. APPEARS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO POSSIBLE SFC BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP
EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN NEB PANHANDLE BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR. AS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVES NORTHEAST AROUND
PEAK HEATING...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE.
THESE WOULD MOST LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN NEB
PANHANDLE. A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST
THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST OR WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT INSTABILITY. SOME CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP
EAST DURING THE EVENING AIDED BY A SOUTHERLY LLJ...AND THE GFS HINTS
AT THIS...BUT UNCERTAIN OF THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY
LOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL EXPECTING A ROUND OF TSTMS.
BOTH THE 23/00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING LIFT...THE ONLY
NEGATIVE FOR CONVECTION IS A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
INITIATION ON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL NEB...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
NEB. OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST FROM ANY PRIOR CONVECTION.
IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP...ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE
AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE STORMS.

WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN. BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN...AS PREVIOUS BOUTS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ETC.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A FAIRLY WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE RATHER MUGGY AS WELL
WITH THE INCREASED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO AT LEAST THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH 80S POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEB. CLOUDS AND PRECIP COULD HAVE AN IMPACT AT
TIMES HOWEVER...BUT OVERALL PRETTY DECENT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

PATCHY FOG IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR RATHER
QUICKLY SINCE THERE ARE NO LOW OR MIDDLE CLOUDS ABOVE IT. THE
STRATUS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WILL BE SLOW
CLEARING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET WILL NOT BE
MUCH HELP CLEARING IT OUT.

AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS A WARM FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION...
THE RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER


000
FXUS63 KLBF 230848
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AT 08Z...THE MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST
WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE STRATUS CLOUDS WERE CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE
FORCED ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

CLOUDINESS WILL PROBABLY BE PERSISTENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

THIS EVENING...AS THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF WYOMING AND
INTO MONTANA...A WARM FRONT RE-FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. WARM
ADVECTION WILL THEN LIFT AIR UP OVER THE FRONT AND BRING SHOWERS TO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW WILL BE MODEST...WITH H5 SPEEDS
AROUND 35 KTS. APPEARS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TO POSSIBLE SFC BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP
EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN NEB PANHANDLE BY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR. AS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVES NORTHEAST AROUND
PEAK HEATING...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE.
THESE WOULD MOST LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN NEB
PANHANDLE. A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST
THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWEST OR WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT INSTABILITY. SOME CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP
EAST DURING THE EVENING AIDED BY A SOUTHERLY LLJ...AND THE GFS HINTS
AT THIS...BUT UNCERTAIN OF THIS SCENARIO...AND WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY
LOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL EXPECTING A ROUND OF TSTMS.
BOTH THE 23/00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING LIFT...THE ONLY
NEGATIVE FOR CONVECTION IS A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
INITIATION ON. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL NEB...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
NEB. OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARIES MAY EXIST FROM ANY PRIOR CONVECTION.
IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP...ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE
AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE STORMS.

WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL REMAIN. BUT TIMING AND
LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN...AS PREVIOUS BOUTS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON BOUNDARY PLACEMENT ETC.

TEMPERATURE WISE...A FAIRLY WARM PERIOD EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE RATHER MUGGY AS WELL
WITH THE INCREASED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT
INTO AT LEAST THE 70S EACH DAY...WITH 80S POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEB. CLOUDS AND PRECIP COULD HAVE AN IMPACT AT
TIMES HOWEVER...BUT OVERALL PRETTY DECENT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PUSHING LOW CLOUDINESS INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE
KLBF TERMINAL...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 3000 TO 5000 FT
AGL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. FOR NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE KVTN TERMINAL...CIGS OF 1000 TO 3000 FT
AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING THURSDAY. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB


000
FXUS63 KLBF 230534
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1234 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AS OBSERVED FROM 22.12Z SOUNDINGS WERE FROM 3-6C ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...RIDGING ALOFT WAS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR AS A STRONG UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTRALIZED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COULD SEE MOISTURE ADVECTING IN...AS WELL AS MOISTURE POOLING
AROUND THE FRONT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS. SO BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 40S...DESPITE SUGGESTIONS
FROM MODEL GUIDANCE TO HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S /WHICH
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SKIES CLEAR RATHER THAN STAY CLOUDY DUE TO THE
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS IN PLACE.

WILL GET RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE MID LEVELS. BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850-700MB
DON/T REALLY START TO WARM UNTIL AFTER 24.00Z SO EXPECTING ANOTHER
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH SHOULD GET AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. ONGOING FORECAST HAD MID TO UPPER
60S FOR HIGHS AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE END OF THE WEEK IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTS...WITH
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS RIGHT UP THE PLAINS REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...PUTTING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE NOSE OF
THE 20 TO 30 KT LLJ WHICH WILL VEER OFF INTO CENTRAL NE BY THE
MORNING HOURS.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY
INITIATE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC CAPE BUILDS TO AOA 1000 J/KG BENEATH 30 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A STOUT CAP IN
PLACE WHICH COULD KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED UNTIL THE LLJ CRANKS UP
OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR MORE ROBUST
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SUCH AS THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SFC CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN NE BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. STORMS WOULD
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40+ KTS AND VEERS OFF TO THE EAST.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WEST COAST LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA AS THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES SO
HAVE LEFT POP GRIDS WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW END POPS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PUSHING LOW CLOUDINESS INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE
KLBF TERMINAL...CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 FT AGL THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 3000 TO 5000 FT
AGL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY EVENING. FOR NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE KVTN TERMINAL...CIGS OF 1000 TO 3000 FT
AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING THURSDAY. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER


000
FXUS63 KLBF 222344
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
644 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AS OBSERVED FROM 22.12Z SOUNDINGS WERE FROM 3-6C ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...RIDGING ALOFT WAS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR AS A STRONG UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTRALIZED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COULD SEE MOISTURE ADVECTING IN...AS WELL AS MOISTURE POOLING
AROUND THE FRONT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS. SO BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 40S...DESPITE SUGGESTIONS
FROM MODEL GUIDANCE TO HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S /WHICH
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SKIES CLEAR RATHER THAN STAY CLOUDY DUE TO THE
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS IN PLACE.

WILL GET RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE MID LEVELS. BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850-700MB
DON/T REALLY START TO WARM UNTIL AFTER 24.00Z SO EXPECTING ANOTHER
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH SHOULD GET AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. ONGOING FORECAST HAD MID TO UPPER
60S FOR HIGHS AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE END OF THE WEEK IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTS...WITH
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS RIGHT UP THE PLAINS REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...PUTTING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE NOSE OF
THE 20 TO 30 KT LLJ WHICH WILL VEER OFF INTO CENTRAL NE BY THE
MORNING HOURS.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY
INITIATE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC CAPE BUILDS TO AOA 1000 J/KG BENEATH 30 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A STOUT CAP IN
PLACE WHICH COULD KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED UNTIL THE LLJ CRANKS UP
OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR MORE ROBUST
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SUCH AS THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SFC CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN NE BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. STORMS WOULD
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40+ KTS AND VEERS OFF TO THE EAST.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WEST COAST LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA AS THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES SO
HAVE LEFT POP GRIDS WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW END POPS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION EAST OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS PUSHING LOW CLOUDINESS INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...CIGS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 1500 FT AGL OVERNIGHT...LIFTING TO 3000 FT BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. BROKEN CIGS AON 5000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...OVERCAST CIGS AON 1500 FT AGL ARE
LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 3000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AON
25000 FT EXPECTED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CLB


000
FXUS63 KLBF 222025
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AS OBSERVED FROM 22.12Z SOUNDINGS WERE FROM 3-6C ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...RIDGING ALOFT WAS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR AS A STRONG UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTRALIZED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR
TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA...COULD SEE MOISTURE ADVECTING IN...AS WELL AS MOISTURE POOLING
AROUND THE FRONT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS. SO BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 40S...DESPITE SUGGESTIONS
FROM MODEL GUIDANCE TO HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S /WHICH
WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF SKIES CLEAR RATHER THAN STAY CLOUDY DUE TO THE
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS IN PLACE.

WILL GET RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ON THURSDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE MID LEVELS. BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850-700MB
DON/T REALLY START TO WARM UNTIL AFTER 24.00Z SO EXPECTING ANOTHER
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH SHOULD GET AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. ONGOING FORECAST HAD MID TO UPPER
60S FOR HIGHS AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE END OF THE WEEK IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTS...WITH
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS RIGHT UP THE PLAINS REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...PUTTING WESTERN NEBRASKA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. AN INVERTED LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE NOSE OF
THE 20 TO 30 KT LLJ WHICH WILL VEER OFF INTO CENTRAL NE BY THE
MORNING HOURS.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS MAY
INITIATE FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SFC CAPE BUILDS TO AOA 1000 J/KG BENEATH 30 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A STOUT CAP IN
PLACE WHICH COULD KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED UNTIL THE LLJ CRANKS UP
OVERNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR MORE ROBUST
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SUCH AS THE
POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT. MODEST
LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SFC CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
2000-3000 J/KG WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN NE BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. STORMS WOULD
LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40+ KTS AND VEERS OFF TO THE EAST.

STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. WEST COAST LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO EJECT SHORTWAVES OVER THE AREA AS THE RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND THE FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. MODELS
ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES SO
HAVE LEFT POP GRIDS WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW END POPS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY IS PLAGUED BY CLOUD COVER WITH PASSAGE
OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SHOULD GET STRATUS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRATUS MOVING OUT OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z...BUT WITH INVERSION SET UP...KEPT
THE STRATUS IN THROUGH MID MORNING AT KVTN AND KLBF. WINDS WILL
SWITCH OVER TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD GET SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH BY LATE MORNING. SHOULD THE STRATUS NOT DEVELOP AS
ANTICIPATED...FORECAST WILL IMPROVE GREATLY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS


000
FXUS63 KLBF 221804
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
104 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS THE MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AS OF 14Z...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER WAS STARTING
TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A NARROW BAND FROM APPROXIMATELY KOGA TO
KCDR THAT MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER...BUT EXPECTING THIS AREA TO
MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE BY THE NOON HOUR. GOING FURTHER EAST...THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...OR AT LEAST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS A THICKER LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN.
THE SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN AREA AND INTENSITY BY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES NOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NRN NEB. THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD END BY NOON. THERE IS ONE MORE IMPULSE ACROSS ERN SD
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH BEFORE THE SFC LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WHILE OVERCAST
SKIES KEEP THE NORTH IN THE 50S.

TONIGHT...AN INVERTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL SHARPEN UP ACROSS
THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD BELT OF
EASTERLIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA WHICH COULD TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS WRN NEB. PRESUMABLY...DRY
AIR COULD MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB CLEARING SKIES THERE. GIVEN THE POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...THE RAP
MODEL MIGHT BE THE BEST HANDLE FOR TONIGHTS SKY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER COOL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO PERHAPS 70 IN A FEW LOCALS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEB AND THE PANHANDLE...WHICH COULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN FURTHER. A
SOUTHERLY LLJ CRACKS UP TO AROUND 45 KTS...ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FLOW DOESN/T APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG...BUT ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A LEEWARD
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE ESTABLISHED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/KS...AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY
HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO INCREASED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY IS PLAGUED BY CLOUD COVER WITH PASSAGE
OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SHOULD GET STRATUS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE STRATUS MOVING OUT OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z...BUT WITH INVERSION SET UP...KEPT
THE STRATUS IN THROUGH MID MORNING AT KVTN AND KLBF. WINDS WILL
SWITCH OVER TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND COULD GET SOME
GUSTS TO 20 MPH BY LATE MORNING. SHOULD THE STRATUS NOT DEVELOP AS
ANTICIPATED...FORECAST WILL IMPROVE GREATLY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS


000
FXUS63 KLBF 221450 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
950 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TRENDS IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS THE MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AS OF 14Z...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE CLOUD COVER WAS STARTING
TO BREAK UP THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A NARROW BAND FROM APPROXIMATELY KOGA TO
KCDR THAT MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER...BUT EXPECTING THIS AREA TO
MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE BY THE NOON HOUR. GOING FURTHER EAST...THE
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...OR AT LEAST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS A THICKER LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN.
THE SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN AREA AND INTENSITY BY LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE STRONGER ECHOES NOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NRN NEB. THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD END BY NOON. THERE IS ONE MORE IMPULSE ACROSS ERN SD
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH BEFORE THE SFC LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WHILE OVERCAST
SKIES KEEP THE NORTH IN THE 50S.

TONIGHT...AN INVERTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL SHARPEN UP ACROSS
THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD BELT OF
EASTERLIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA WHICH COULD TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS WRN NEB. PRESUMABLY...DRY
AIR COULD MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB CLEARING SKIES THERE. GIVEN THE POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...THE RAP
MODEL MIGHT BE THE BEST HANDLE FOR TONIGHTS SKY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER COOL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO PERHAPS 70 IN A FEW LOCALS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEB AND THE PANHANDLE...WHICH COULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN FURTHER. A
SOUTHERLY LLJ CRACKS UP TO AROUND 45 KTS...ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FLOW DOESN/T APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG...BUT ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A LEEWARD
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE ESTABLISHED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/KS...AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY
HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO INCREASED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

IFR ACROSS NRN NEB SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS MORNING WHILE THE
MVFR ALONG I-80 IMPROVES TO VFR. TONIGHT...UPSLOPE EASTERLIES
DEVELOP AND MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KLBF TERMINAL. MEANWHILE...THE RAP MODEL
SUGGESTS CLEARING ACROSS NERN NEB AND THE KVTN TERMINAL.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC


000
FXUS63 KLBF 221125 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NRN NEB. THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD END BY NOON. THERE IS ONE MORE IMPULSE ACROSS ERN SD
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH BEFORE THE SFC LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WHILE OVERCAST
SKIES KEEP THE NORTH IN THE 50S.

TONIGHT...AN INVERTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL SHARPEN UP ACROSS
THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD BELT OF
EASTERLIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA WHICH COULD TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS WRN NEB. PRESUMABLY...DRY
AIR COULD MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB CLEARING SKIES THERE. GIVEN THE POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...THE RAP
MODEL MIGHT BE THE BEST HANDLE FOR TONIGHTS SKY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER COOL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO PERHAPS 70 IN A FEW LOCALS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEB AND THE PANHANDLE...WHICH COULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN FURTHER. A
SOUTHERLY LLJ CRACKS UP TO AROUND 45 KTS...ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FLOW DOESN/T APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG...BUT ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A LEEWARD
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE ESTABLISHED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/KS...AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY
HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO INCREASED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

IFR ACROSS NRN NEB SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS MORNING WHILE THE
MVFR ALONG I-80 IMPROVES TO VFR. TONIGHT...UPSLOPE EASTERLIES
DEVELOP AND MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN NEB
PERHAPS AFFECTING THE KLBF TERMAINAL. MEANWHILE...THE RAP MODEL
SUGGESTS CLEARING ACROSS NERN NEB AND THE KVTN TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC


000
FXUS63 KLBF 220848
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NRN NEB. THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD END BY NOON. THERE IS ONE MORE IMPULSE ACROSS ERN SD
WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH BEFORE THE SFC LOW DRIFTS EAST INTO THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WHILE OVERCAST
SKIES KEEP THE NORTH IN THE 50S.

TONIGHT...AN INVERTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL SHARPEN UP ACROSS
THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET UP A BROAD BELT OF
EASTERLIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA WHICH COULD TRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PRODUCE UPSLOPE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS WRN NEB. PRESUMABLY...DRY
AIR COULD MOVE INTO NCNTL NEB CLEARING SKIES THERE. GIVEN THE POOR
MODEL PERFORMANCE OF THE NAM IN THESE TYPES OF SITUATIONS...THE RAP
MODEL MIGHT BE THE BEST HANDLE FOR TONIGHTS SKY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING CONDITIONS RATHER COOL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO PERHAPS 70 IN A FEW LOCALS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEB AND THE PANHANDLE...WHICH COULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN FURTHER. A
SOUTHERLY LLJ CRACKS UP TO AROUND 45 KTS...ADVECTING MORE MOISTURE
AND BETTER CHANCES FOR STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...PROVIDING A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FLOW DOESN/T APPEAR OVERLY
STRONG...BUT ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A LEEWARD
TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE ESTABLISHED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NEB/KS...AND COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW. OF
COURSE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD COULD BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY
HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY
OF STRATUS CLOUDS DUE TO INCREASED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

OR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 1500
TO 2500 FT AGL ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL
LIFT TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL MVFR AND IFR CIGS RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1500 FT AGL ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL RISE TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT BOTH
TERMINALS...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT THE KVTN TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR INCLUSION IN THE 06Z FCST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB


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