Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KLBF 011137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS
AT KVTN EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THIS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE
BASED ON SATELLITE AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. HAVE LEFT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONSISTENCY BUT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CIGS AND BR IS WANING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH FROM
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CHANCES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION...SO NO MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 011137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS
AT KVTN EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THIS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE
BASED ON SATELLITE AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. HAVE LEFT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONSISTENCY BUT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CIGS AND BR IS WANING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH FROM
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CHANCES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION...SO NO MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 010843
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK







000
FXUS63 KLBF 010843
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 010644
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
144 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPINGS THROUGH
THE 50S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
SEEN IN THE FAR EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OTHERWISE CLEARING
ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KECK
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK








000
FXUS63 KLBF 010644
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
144 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPINGS THROUGH
THE 50S IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
SEEN IN THE FAR EASTERN NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OTHERWISE CLEARING
ACROSS THE WEST. AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING THROUGH DAYBREAK IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KECK
SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK









000
FXUS63 KLBF 010523
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR LOWER
STRATUS POSSIBLY IMPACTING KVTN AFTER 09Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING. THEN AN
ADDITIONAL ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS BACK TO KVTN
AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS/KECK










000
FXUS63 KLBF 312334
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
01/06Z. THE SKY WILL CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF OVERNIGHT...WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FARTHER NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS...INCLUDING KVTN. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS/DS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 312054
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING AND THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED A MVFR CEILING AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS...BUT THAT
MAY BE TOO HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE CATEGORY SHOULD BE
DROPPED TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 312054
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
354 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AT 20Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH SPANNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PV ANOMALY
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING. THERE WAS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE COLD FRONT
HAD PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AND WAS FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND UP INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. DENSE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS...AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY JUMP UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY OVER WYOMING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
AREA EASTWARD AND SO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID EVENING.
CAPE VALUES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE QUITE MARGINAL...WITH MU CAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO IF
CONVECTION CAN GET A HOLD OF SOME OF THE INSTABILITY...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO GET SOME MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GOING ON. ALSO...THERE IS
DECENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...40-50 KTS SO THINKING THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF STRONGER STORMS /MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE/ BUT DON/T ANTICIPATE MUCH CHANCES FOR LONG-LASTING
SUPER-CELLULAR STORMS DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND AS WINDS DIE DOWN...LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS A
COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

FOR MONDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING WOULD BRING THE SHORTWAVE
FROM WYOMING INTO NEBRASKA AFTER 18Z...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIFT LOOKS SUFFICIENT...WITH A UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
PUSHING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...PUTTING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION TO SUPPORT STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT. CAPE ISN/T SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE IS SOME THERE...AND WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN WAS EXPERIENCED SUNDAY...BUT WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 16C-18C.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FOR MONDAY EVENING...20 TO 30 POPS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTHEAST
FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY DROPS SOUTHEAST. ENDED POPS AFTER 06Z WITH SKIES TO BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA...LOWS
WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 ONL TO NEAR 88 AT IML.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EXPANSIVE
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS RANGE FROM 25
TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.
UPPER FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO MONTANA AND THE PAC
NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS HUDSON BAY CANADA...THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE PACIFIC NW ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AGREED UPON BY THE
ECMWF...GEM...12Z GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE. THIS WILL BRING A COOLDOWN
THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NCTRL TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH...FOLLOWED
BY LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. POST FRONTAL CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT SOUTH AND EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OTHERWISE SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL WITH A BROAD FLAT
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY TO
THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING AND THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED A MVFR CEILING AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS...BUT THAT
MAY BE TOO HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE CATEGORY SHOULD BE
DROPPED TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 311824
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
124 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HAVE BEEN SEEING CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP SLIGHTLY BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BEHIND FROM FORECAST
HOURLY TEMPERATURES DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. STARTING TO SEE A BIT OF
TOWERING AND CUMULONIMBUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REALLY ISN/T MUCH
FOR INSTABILITY THOUGH SO THINKING STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CHANCES YET
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOT ANTICIPATING A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE PV ANOMALY IS STILL OUT OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
CLOSER. THERE IS A LOT OF SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT SO IF A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED CAN/T DISCOUNT GETTING
A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING AND THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED A MVFR CEILING AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS...BUT THAT
MAY BE TOO HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE CATEGORY SHOULD BE
DROPPED TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 311824
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
124 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HAVE BEEN SEEING CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP SLIGHTLY BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BEHIND FROM FORECAST
HOURLY TEMPERATURES DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. STARTING TO SEE A BIT OF
TOWERING AND CUMULONIMBUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AND WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REALLY ISN/T MUCH
FOR INSTABILITY THOUGH SO THINKING STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CHANCES YET
TODAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND JUST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY NOT ANTICIPATING A HIGH THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE PV ANOMALY IS STILL OUT OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND SO
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
CLOSER. THERE IS A LOT OF SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT SO IF A FEW
STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED CAN/T DISCOUNT GETTING
A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS TIMING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
A STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING AND THROUGH MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED A MVFR CEILING AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS...BUT THAT
MAY BE TOO HIGH AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF THE CATEGORY SHOULD BE
DROPPED TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BROOKS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 311436 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 311436 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING.
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS PROMPTED
AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OUT
OF WYOMING. SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DETERMINED BY LOCATION
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAD BEEN MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESSION THIS
MORNING WITH THE HELP OF OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY. ONE
CONCERN IN THE LOCAL AREA IS THE INCREASING CLOUDS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND SHOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. THIS MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY TO HELP FUEL
STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 311152
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 311152
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
652 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONVECTION EVOLVING SIMILAR THIS MORNING SO FAR TO THE WAY HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AS NEXT CLUSTER EMERGES
FROM ERN WY AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSRA ARE FORMING IN THE WAA ZONE AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND
MORE IMPRESSIVE PV ANOMALY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY SERVE TO STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING AND DISRUPT SFC
BASED CONVECTION HERE IN WRN AND NC NEB...AND MAY PUSH THIS
FURTHER EAST. IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GOOD
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE CAPE ALOFT TO PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH.
THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO KLBF TAF SITE THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT IN NC NEBRASKA THIS EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR KVTN FOR TSRA THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF
ACTUAL COVERAGE OF STORMS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 310839
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 310839
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MESSY SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL
WEAKER PV ANOMALIES MOVE OUT OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THESE
UPPER PV ANOMALIES HAVE HELPED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
A DECENT LLJ WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LEE SFC TROUGH...HAVE
DEVELOPED WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND NOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. IR SAT PICS INDICATING CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ACROSS NEB CURRENTLY...THOUGH COOLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NW KS AS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES EAST THERE WHERE BETTER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY MOVING
ACROSS SRN ID AND HELPING TO GENERATE MORE TSRA ACROSS SRN WY. AS
THE NRN MOST PV ANOMALY ACROSS SD CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD TODAY...THE
MEAN SFC TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE FCST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO COINCIDE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AND ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN POOLED IN THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND A REDEVLOPMENT OF
THE LLJ MAINLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE ERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SANDHILLS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DEVELOPING FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAIN UNCERTAIN IN WRN NEB DUE TO LIMITED EXPECTED INSOLATION DUE
TO EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD THE CLOUDS BREAK AHEAD OF
THE SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON...A QUICKLY DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TSRA AND WITH GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STOCKVILLE TO BROKEN BOW TO AINSWORTH...SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT
SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK. TSRA SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AFTER 02Z OR SO...MAINLY
FURTHER EAST OF THE FCST AREA AND HAVE LIMITED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN MOST AREA.

HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE HELD DOWN THE GREATEST IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL USHER ANOTHER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE TO THE 30-40 KT RANGE WHEN STORM INITIATION IS
ANTICIPATED...A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE EVENING AND EARLY
ON TUESDAY...AND FOR THIS WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...INDICATING THAT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LARGELY BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FORECAST WAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION PROGGED BY THE 31.00Z NAM.

ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO
WASHINGTON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE THURSDAY AS NO MAJOR ATMOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS ARE PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER PATTERN BACKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PAC NW TROUGH ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER TOWARD CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND BE FORCED EAST WITH A COLD FRONT.  WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE...ANY DISTURBANCE WOULD OPERATE ON
THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR STORMS.  WILL LEAVE THE CR
ALLBLEND PROCEDURE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW...WHICH INDICATES SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...POST
FRONTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO RETURN FLOW
AND SOLID WAA INTO MIDWEEK.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY...BUT WARM SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...SUCH THAT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRONG LATE WEEK COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SEEM
PLAUSIBLE AT THIS POINT IN TIME. CONCERNING LOWS...UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK WIND.  LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH LOW 60S
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...BUT COOL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LATE WEEK
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 310540
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JWS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 310540
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND
EVIDENT ON RADAR. MOST OF THE TSRA IS EAST OF THE KVTN AREA BUT
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. FURTHER SOUTH TSRA MAY STAY
NORTH OF KLBF BUT UNCERTAINTY HAS PROMPTED A VCTS GROUP THERE AS
SHRA LAGGING AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WITH LLJ IN PLACE. SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WOULD PASS THE AREA BY 09-10Z OR SO BUT
A SECOND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPPING SEWD FROM WRN SD MAY INTERACT
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS.

LATER TODAY...TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL BE CRUCIAL
IN UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR KVTN AREA PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING AND THEREFORE BELIEVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
TSRA WILL BE IN THE KLBF TAF SITE AREA...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON
COVERAGE AREA THIS FAR WEST IS LACKING BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JWS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 302309
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
609 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WITH A SURFACE FRONT STALLED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND AN UPPER SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
NEBRASKA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA IS LIMITED...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE SOME THIS EVENING
WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT APPEARS
THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND TS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
IN THE FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CEILING
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 302309
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
609 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WITH A SURFACE FRONT STALLED ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING AND AN UPPER SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
NEBRASKA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA IS LIMITED...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE SOME THIS EVENING
WITH THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT APPEARS
THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND TS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED
IN THE FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...CEILING
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE UNLIMITED THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 302046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TS RA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN












000
FXUS63 KLBF 302046
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
346 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 20Z THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WAS PROGRESSIVE WITH
A DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

CLOSER TO THE SANDHILLS REGION SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS. SKIES OVER
THE CWA WERE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. HOWEVER H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. A LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO THIS EVENING...LEADING
TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WY AND THE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY MAKE IT OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AND
TRACK EAST INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SFC LOW AND NOSE OF
THE LLJ.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AS THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO A CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF A COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF A LBF TO ANW LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN A
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ML
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS.
STOUT EML WILL LIKELY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT CAPPED TO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION UNTIL AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA
BETWEEN 21-00Z. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8 C/KM STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE UPON INITIATION
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. STORM UPDRAFTS
WILL LIKELY MERGE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE CWA.

WEST OF THE COLD FRONT STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MID TO LATE
MORNING IN THE PANHANDLE AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY SINCE
ALL CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY EVENING ALONG WITH SURFACE BASED
STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...ELEVATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EARLY EVENING CAPES FROM 1500-2500
J/KG AVBL ABOVE 700MB. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS HIGH AS 45-55
KTS...THIS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.

ON MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN NW AS A FAIRLY STRONG PV
ANOMALY THROUGH NERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS BY LATE AFTN. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY
SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TOO FAST AND
FAVOR THE SLOW NAM MODEL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO WRN
NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...RUNNING 20
TO 30 POPS NORTHEAST FROM HAY SPRINGS THROUGH BROKEN BOW.

TUESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PAC NW. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AS H8 TEMPS WARM ABOVE 25C SW
AND SERN PNHDL. HIGHS NEAR 80 NCTRL TO NEAR 85 SOUTHWEST.


TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30C AND HIGHS RESPOND REACHING NEAR 90. UPPER
FLOW ALSO BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ALBERTA...SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE PAC NW. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL EXPAND INTO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND ALSO THE WEST COAST
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE THE FAST
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z THU...WHILE THE GFS SLOWEST
MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO
SLOWER AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S NW TO THE MID 80S
SOUTHWEST...WITH 70S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TS RA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...MARTIN











000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MARTIN







000
FXUS63 KLBF 301736
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE PANHANDLE AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE AND LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT
WARRANT ANY MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...SWITCHING THE
WIND DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...MARTIN








000
FXUS63 KLBF 301137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE TERMINAL FCST INVOLVES PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
IN THE KLBF AREA THIS MORNING. VSBY AROUND THE KLBF TAF SITE IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE WITH SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG SEEN IN OUTLYING AREA CURRENTLY...BUT
AS OF YET NOT AT THE SENSOR LOCATION. THREAT OF FOG SHOULD
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THOUGH AFTER 15Z AS FULL SUNSHINE TAKES
OVER. IN ADDITION...SCT CLOUDS NEAR THE KVTN SITE THIS MORNING ARE
BELOW LOCAL ALTERNATE MINIMUMS...AND PATCHY FOG IS ALSO AN ISSUE
FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE SD BORDER. SHORT RANGE MODELS EVENTUALLY
MOVE THE CLOUDS EWD DURING THE MORNING HOURS SO AGAIN BY NOON
THESE CONCERNS SHOULD BE OVER.

WEAK AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE
KLBF SITE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION
WITHIN 24 HRS...AS NAM/GEM DEVELOP WEAK CONVECTION BUT HIRES
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 301137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE TERMINAL FCST INVOLVES PATCHY SHALLOW FOG
IN THE KLBF AREA THIS MORNING. VSBY AROUND THE KLBF TAF SITE IS HIGHLY
VARIABLE WITH SHALLOW AND PATCHY FOG SEEN IN OUTLYING AREA CURRENTLY...BUT
AS OF YET NOT AT THE SENSOR LOCATION. THREAT OF FOG SHOULD
DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THOUGH AFTER 15Z AS FULL SUNSHINE TAKES
OVER. IN ADDITION...SCT CLOUDS NEAR THE KVTN SITE THIS MORNING ARE
BELOW LOCAL ALTERNATE MINIMUMS...AND PATCHY FOG IS ALSO AN ISSUE
FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE SD BORDER. SHORT RANGE MODELS EVENTUALLY
MOVE THE CLOUDS EWD DURING THE MORNING HOURS SO AGAIN BY NOON
THESE CONCERNS SHOULD BE OVER.

WEAK AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE
KLBF SITE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION
WITHIN 24 HRS...AS NAM/GEM DEVELOP WEAK CONVECTION BUT HIRES
MODELS ARE GENERALLY DRY TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 300828
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED FROM VTN-LBF AND EAST LEFT A MOIST COOL
NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE COOL MOIST AIR...CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW PATCHES OF FG/BR. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WOULD BE ONL-BBW WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS THIS PAST
EVENING. THE RAPID REFRESH SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 3SM ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN-ANW-BUB LINE WITH LESS THAN
1SM POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS ACTUALLY EAST OF
THAT LINE AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT DISLOCATION
OF THAT AS INPUT AND THAT WOULD SKEW THE OUTPUT. THE TIMING OF THE
FG/BR WILL BE 10-14Z. SINCE VTN DID NOT HAVE ANY RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE BR (OR FG) IN ITS TERMINAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. THE INFLUENCE OF WETLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF LBF
WILL ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AND WE WILL
INCLUDE 2SM WITH BCFG AT LBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER/JWS










000
FXUS63 KLBF 300828
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SW NEB THROUGH SUNRISE WHILE STRATUS CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ERN SD. RAP LOW LEVEL RH PROGS WOULD SUGGEST THE
STRATUS WILL SAG TO NEAR THE NIOBRARA VALLEY BY 12-15Z OR SO AND THE
HRRR HAS LOW CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR
THAT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD MENTION OF FOG ALSO IN THE NERN ZONES AS A
RESULT OF PREVIOUS 24 HR RAINFALL AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WOULD ALSO
BE ALONG THE FRINGE OF LOWER CLOUDS WHICH IS A TYPICAL EVOLUTION
ANYWAY. SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AS IT WAS...MORE PATCHY TWD
THE SWRN PORTION OF THE AREA...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. ON THE LARGER SCALE...A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE NRN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY.
NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A LEAD PV
ANOMALY MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM WRN SD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE OF SRLY WINDS AND
DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE ERN EDGE OF
THE THERMAL RIDGE /WHICH WILL BE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY/
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL EXIST. THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT RETREATS DURING THE DAY...BUT DEEP LAYER
LIFT DOES NOT LOOK EVIDENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD CREEP A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING THERMAL RIDGE...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN PANHANDLE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LEAD PV ANOMALY /WHICH IS BEST DEFINED INITIALLY
BY 30.00Z GFS/ WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE POSITION.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH IS WEAK INITIALLY BUT WILL LIKELY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA WHICH WILL MOVE EWD SAT EVE...THOUGH
LOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS SUGGESTED BY WRN FCST SOUNDINGS.
HIGH PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPS THROUGH SAT EVE WHICH WILL ADVECT
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
SHOULD MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSRA INTO
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE EVE AND EARLY MORNING. NAM/GEM
AND GFS SUPPORT THIS THOUGH HIRES CAMS ARE NOT SO EAGER TO DEVELOP
PRECIP. GRIDS WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION...PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

12Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48 TO START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT THE PATTERN DOES SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR EAST OF A KLBF TO KANW LINE WHERE THERMAL
ADVECTION IS SHOWN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. THE GFS...NAM...AND EC ALL SHOW CONVECTION FIRING IN
THIS AREA...SO GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF NOT ONLY THE FINER
DETAILS BUT ALSO THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...FELT THAT CONFIDENCE
WAS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE LIKELY/S INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS OUR FAR
EAST /EAST OF A MAYWOOD TO NAPER LINE/...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS
/40-50%/ FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE KANW TO KLBF LINE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...SO STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY REMOVED OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 06Z MONDAY. SFC TD/S ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS OUR EAST AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEP
LOWER TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH PROMOTE SB POTENTIAL ENERGY
IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE ANTICIPATED. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE MODELS PEGGING UPWARDS OF 40-50KTS 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
CONGEAL ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
BAND WHICH WOULD PROMOTE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND INTO THE
EVENING.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE
TIMING OF THE EXITING TROUGH...MOST NOTABLY...THE EC RETAINS A PIECE
OF ENERGY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE EC GENERATES LIGHT QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  THE GFS IN COMPARISON IS DRY AND LACKS
MUCH OF THE EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THIS ADDITIONAL TROPOSPHERIC
PERTURBATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND SCALED BACK
POPS MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
MENTION GOING.

BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY...THE CR ALLBLEND PROCEDURE PROJECTED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND THERE ARE NO ARGUMENTS
HERE AS AN OVERALL LACK OF OMEGA WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE
CONUS.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO BE BACKING
OFF THIS SOLUTION A BIT...FOCUSING THE BEST POTENTIAL WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA.  WILL KEEP THE PROCEDURE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.

NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VIOLENT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO COME MID-WEEK...AS HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.  OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW TO MID 80S SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR MOST DAYS.  LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S SEEM TO BE THE NORM
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED FROM VTN-LBF AND EAST LEFT A MOIST COOL
NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE COOL MOIST AIR...CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW PATCHES OF FG/BR. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WOULD BE ONL-BBW WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS THIS PAST
EVENING. THE RAPID REFRESH SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 3SM ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN-ANW-BUB LINE WITH LESS THAN
1SM POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS ACTUALLY EAST OF
THAT LINE AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT DISLOCATION
OF THAT AS INPUT AND THAT WOULD SKEW THE OUTPUT. THE TIMING OF THE
FG/BR WILL BE 10-14Z. SINCE VTN DID NOT HAVE ANY RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE BR (OR FG) IN ITS TERMINAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. THE INFLUENCE OF WETLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF LBF
WILL ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AND WE WILL
INCLUDE 2SM WITH BCFG AT LBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER/JWS











000
FXUS63 KLBF 300525
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT...COMPACT PV ANOMALY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO A DAY OR TWO AGO. SHEAR
IS LIMITED AT BEST IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
03-04Z. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST BL...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN FOR OUR EAST AND IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.

TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF KINEMATIC
FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.  AFTER PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE
50S SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT. AREAS EAST OF ONEILL THROUGH STOCKVILLE WILL HAVE A 40 TO
50 POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO WRN NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM EASTERN WY INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED FROM EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MAINTAINING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 80S TUESDAY TO THE  MID/UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SETTLE A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH POPS
APPROPRIATELY ADDED IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGHS FRIDAY TO COOL TO THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE STORMS THAT OCCURRED FROM VTN-LBF AND EAST LEFT A MOIST COOL
NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THE COOL MOIST AIR...CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW PATCHES OF FG/BR. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WOULD BE ONL-BBW WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEFT SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS THIS PAST
EVENING. THE RAPID REFRESH SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 3SM ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN-ANW-BUB LINE WITH LESS THAN
1SM POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS ACTUALLY EAST OF
THAT LINE AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MAY HAVE A SLIGHT DISLOCATION
OF THAT AS INPUT AND THAT WOULD SKEW THE OUTPUT. THE TIMING OF THE
FG/BR WILL BE 10-14Z. SINCE VTN DID NOT HAVE ANY RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING...WE WILL NOT INCLUDE BR (OR FG) IN ITS TERMINAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. THE INFLUENCE OF WETLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF LBF
WILL ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AND WE WILL
INCLUDE 2SM WITH BCFG AT LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER/JWS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 292320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT...COMPACT PV ANOMALY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO A DAY OR TWO AGO. SHEAR
IS LIMITED AT BEST IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
03-04Z. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST BL...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN FOR OUR EAST AND IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.

TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF KINEMATIC
FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.  AFTER PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE
50S SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT. AREAS EAST OF ONEILL THROUGH STOCKVILLE WILL HAVE A 40 TO
50 POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO WRN NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM EASTERN WY INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED FROM EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MAINTAINING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 80S TUESDAY TO THE  MID/UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SETTLE A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH POPS
APPROPRIATELY ADDED IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGHS FRIDAY TO COOL TO THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DISSIPATE BY
06Z TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
LEFT FROM THE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FG/BR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 292320
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT...COMPACT PV ANOMALY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO A DAY OR TWO AGO. SHEAR
IS LIMITED AT BEST IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
03-04Z. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST BL...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN FOR OUR EAST AND IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.

TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF KINEMATIC
FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.  AFTER PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE
50S SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT. AREAS EAST OF ONEILL THROUGH STOCKVILLE WILL HAVE A 40 TO
50 POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO WRN NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM EASTERN WY INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED FROM EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MAINTAINING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 80S TUESDAY TO THE  MID/UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SETTLE A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH POPS
APPROPRIATELY ADDED IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGHS FRIDAY TO COOL TO THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DISSIPATE BY
06Z TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER
LEFT FROM THE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FG/BR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 291938
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
OVERNIGHT...COMPACT PV ANOMALY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXIT NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO A DAY OR TWO AGO. SHEAR
IS LIMITED AT BEST IN A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS WOULD BE ANTICIPATED AT BEST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE COOLING...STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY
03-04Z. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST BL...FOG MAY BE A CONCERN FOR OUR EAST AND IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AROUND THE DAWN HOURS.

TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF KINEMATIC
FORCING AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...STORMS AND/OR SHOWERS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.  AFTER PLEASANTLY COOL LOWS IN THE
50S SATURDAY MORNING...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. COVERAGE SHOULD MOSTLY BE ISOLATED AND
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT NEAR 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE LOWERED POPS MOST AREAS TO 20 TO 40
PERCENT. AREAS EAST OF ONEILL THROUGH STOCKVILLE WILL HAVE A 40 TO
50 POP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

ON MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL
WORK INTO WRN NEBR AS DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
WEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION FROM EASTERN WY INTO WRN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED FROM EASTERN MT INTO EASTERN WYOMING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND MAINTAINING
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS APPROPRIATE.

UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL WARM FROM THE MID 80S TUESDAY TO THE  MID/UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN WESTERN
KANSAS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL SETTLE A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH POPS
APPROPRIATELY ADDED IN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGHS FRIDAY TO COOL TO THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A TSRA MENTION AT KLBF THIS EVENING. AT KVTN...DEBATED
WHETHER TO GO WITH VCTS OR ACTUAL TSRA...BUT EVENTUALLY SIDED WITH
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH INDICATES STORMS AFTER 00Z. ERRATIC WIND
AND MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KONL WHEN IMPACTED BY A STORM. FOG MAY BE A CONCERN TOMORROW
MORNING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AT BOTH KVTN
AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 291802
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA AND ALASKA WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS
PRESENT. CLOSED LOWS WERE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY...THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AS WELL AS OFF THE COAST OF NRN ALASKA. ACROSS THE
CONUS...HIGH PRESSURE WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA...AS
WELL AS THE FAR SERN CONUS. CLOSER TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS...SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. UPSTREAM OF
THIS FEATURE...A NICE SHORTWAVE WAS PRESENT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
MT. RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...HAS A NICE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KS INTO
FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING WITH ALL ACTIVITY OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED OVERNIGHT
WEST OF A LINE FROM ATKINSON TO BROKEN BOW WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 54 AT OGALLALA TO 65 AT BROKEN BOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS A MINIMAL
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS MORNING IN THE
EASTERN CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FURTHER WEST...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLOUD UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER
SRN MT APPROACHES THE NEBR PANHANDLE. WITH HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DECIDED TO KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM
AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THIS IS EVIDENT IN PWATS OF 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH
VS. THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH PWATS OF A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. WE WILL BE
IN A VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS WELL...SO STORMS WILL BE OF
THE PULSE TYPE WITH SHORT DURATION EXPECTED. WITH COOLING THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY BY 03Z.
AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WITH
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A LITTLE RIDGING OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD
AID IN LITTLE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND A FEW LOWER 90S. FORECAST IS ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE...GOING WITH THE LOWER GUIDANCE OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW...CONSIDERING MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
INCHES THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE GROUND WILL STILL BE DAMP.

MEANWHILE EYES BEGIN TO FOCUS ON THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC
NW. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY ON SUNDAY...AS
A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 2K TO 4K J/KG AND 40 TO 55 KTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE CONCERN IS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED AT PEAK
HEAT. GENERAL MODEL BLEND IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO SEE DEVELOPMENT. STEEP LAPSES
RATE POST FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS.

ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MODELS IN AGREEMENT
ENDING PRECIP BY MIDNIGHT...AND FORECAST HAS GONE DRY OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST FOLLOWS COOL GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPS TRENDING COOLER.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW POPS CONTINUED. THEN ZONAL FLOW WILL SLOWLY BECOME
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE PLUM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WITH MUCH OF THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE ON
A SLOW CLIMB. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A TROUGH WILL
DIG IN ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THIS SET UP
WILL LIKELY BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ATTM...THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A TSRA MENTION AT KLBF THIS EVENING. AT KVTN...DEBATED
WHETHER TO GO WITH VCTS OR ACTUAL TSRA...BUT EVENTUALLY SIDED WITH
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH INDICATES STORMS AFTER 00Z. ERRATIC WIND
AND MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
OTHERWISE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KONL WHEN IMPACTED BY A STORM. FOG MAY BE A CONCERN TOMORROW
MORNING...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AT BOTH KVTN
AND KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS










    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities