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000
FXUS63 KLBF 292345
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 292345
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
545 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 12G18KT
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG










000
FXUS63 KLBF 292054
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 292054
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH A SWATH OF DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEING PUSHED NORTH AHEAD OF IT INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. LOCALLY...CLEAR SKIES WERE SEEN ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT REMAINED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WILL
HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING ALOFT
TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
INCREASING BY 4-7 DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS
NEBRASKA...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. THE AIR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY SO EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GET THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO DECOUPLE EASILY AND THUS EXPECTING STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE AIR SETTLES. SO DID GO A BIT
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH STAYED A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE WHICH SEEM TOO COLD WITH LOWS
NEARING 10F FOR SOME AREAS.

ON FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST MIGRATING
ONSHORE...EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO START PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS SO WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED...SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THINKING THE CIRRUS WILL BE FAIRLY THIN
INITIALLY...THEN THICKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO NOT ANTICIPATING
THEM TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. WENT A BIT
WARMER FOR HIGHS AS HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCUR DECENT MIXING...LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
THIS WOULD PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN 50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A FRONT COMING INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
BEGIN PICKING UP MOISTURE APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80. IN THAT AREA...THE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC
LIFT GAINS ENHANCEMENT FROM FRONTOGENESIS AND MARGINAL STABILITY TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT. ALTHOUGH SATURATED AIR IS LIFTED INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 3000 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 0C. BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0C...THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...WE THINK THAT PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DO OCCUR...IT WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES. ALSO...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT
BECOMES MANIFEST WITH ENHANCEMENT ALOFT IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF THE JET STREAK LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO VERY EARLY SUNDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW MONDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOIST
AIR LIFTING UP OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN KANSAS WILL BRING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LIFT IN
THE 290-300K LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND
WEAK INSTABILITY. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
LIFT AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 291732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THE CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST WARMING THOSE AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MIXING TO 850MB CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL
INCREASING THE ONGOING FORECAST OF NEAR 40 TO MID 40S STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291732
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES. THE CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST WARMING THOSE AREAS...TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MIXING TO 850MB CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL
INCREASING THE ONGOING FORECAST OF NEAR 40 TO MID 40S STILL LOOKS
GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
DOES HAVE A TREND SHOWING CHANGING WIND CONDITIONS AS THE CURRENT
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH NEAR MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEAR SUNSET THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
12KTS LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 291129 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BEFORE
COMPLETELY ERODING AROUND 18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC







000
FXUS63 KLBF 291129 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EAST THIS MORNING AND THEN MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BEFORE
COMPLETELY ERODING AROUND 18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS
THEREAFTER THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC








000
FXUS63 KLBF 291000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG






000
FXUS63 KLBF 291000
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SFC OBS INDICATE CEILINGS ARE RISING ACROSS
NCNTL NEB. THE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW WEAKENING THIS MORNING 15Z-18Z. THUS WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FROM 18Z ONWARD.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO RAP MODEL WHICH GENERALLY WORKS WELL IN CLEAR
SKY CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SLOWLY EAST WITH SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FROM 03Z ONWARD AND SPREADING SLOWLY
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE COLDEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAP
MODEL INDICATES NORTH WINDS AT JUST 10 TO 15 MPH BY 3 PM THIS AFTN
AS PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WRN NEB.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY. MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RIDGING...WITH H850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
2C TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START SUNNY...BUT SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY AS SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THE MILD AIR IN PLACE AND EXPECTED SUN...WILL RAISE HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

STILL LOOKS INTERESTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
LARGE PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE...WITH SOME MODEL RUNS
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...AND OTHERS WEAKER
AND MORE SHEARED. THE LATEST 29/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SUPPORTS A
WEAKER...FASTER AND MORE SHEARED SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THE NAM BEING THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND
SLOWEST OF ALL. HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE
SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN QUESTION. A SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED
SCENARIO WOULD PULL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE A FASTER MORE SHEARED SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO SHUNT MUCH
OF THE SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE EAST. THE SLOWER MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM WOULD FAVOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW...WHILE THE GFS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF WOULD NOT. DUE TO THE WOBBLING OF THE
MODELS IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHERN STREAM...WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT POP FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW
CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WITH A DECREASE TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER WEST.
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND EXPECT
THAT MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE SOME UNTIL THE FEATURE IS
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN IT/S WAKE
SUNDAY. UPPER FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY...WITH PACIFIC
AIR SPREADING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 290521
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE DEEP TROUGH OUT EAST JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT DIPPING DOWN
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WAS TIGHTENED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ONGOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP TO
700MB FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS...THE DEEP MIXING BROUGHT GUSTS UP TO 43KTS TO THE SURFACE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED FOR ALL
AREAS. THE DEEP MIXING ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED IN PLACES. WAS ALSO SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. HOWEVER WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
ANYTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE VERY DRY
WITH CEILINGS AT 6-9K FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -2C TO -7C BY 18Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STAY HIGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
NOT BEGIN TO RELAX UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF AT ALL
THESE MAY BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS MAY DROP OFF
EARLIER. SEEING SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING IN
AGAIN. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 0C. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRENDED LOWS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL JET STILL
DEVELOPS DURING THE PERIOD...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SFC TEMPS BY SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN SANDHILLS. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE CA/MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK MID
LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULT IN A MEAGER WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/NAM/EC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED MUCH DRIER ACROSS
NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THE 00Z SOLUTIONS OF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BLANKETED MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER STREAMS AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN STREAM PV MAX...ROBUST IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS NOW PROGGED TO BE QUICKER AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHEARS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS AND EC BOTH DROPPED
THEIR LAYER PWAT VALUES FOR LBF BY ALMOST HALF AN INCH ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY QPF. THE RESULT IS A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY CUT OUT
POPS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS WITHIN THE
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERATING QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AT A PREMIUM AND ANY SNOWFALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE AS H85 TEMPS COOL TO -10C TO -16C ACROSS THE
CWA....KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVERTS BACK
TO THE FAMILIAR WEST COAST RIDGE AND STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG











000
FXUS63 KLBF 290521
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE DEEP TROUGH OUT EAST JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT DIPPING DOWN
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WAS TIGHTENED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ONGOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP TO
700MB FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS...THE DEEP MIXING BROUGHT GUSTS UP TO 43KTS TO THE SURFACE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED FOR ALL
AREAS. THE DEEP MIXING ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED IN PLACES. WAS ALSO SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. HOWEVER WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
ANYTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE VERY DRY
WITH CEILINGS AT 6-9K FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -2C TO -7C BY 18Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STAY HIGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
NOT BEGIN TO RELAX UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF AT ALL
THESE MAY BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS MAY DROP OFF
EARLIER. SEEING SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING IN
AGAIN. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 0C. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRENDED LOWS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL JET STILL
DEVELOPS DURING THE PERIOD...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SFC TEMPS BY SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN SANDHILLS. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE CA/MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK MID
LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULT IN A MEAGER WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/NAM/EC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED MUCH DRIER ACROSS
NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THE 00Z SOLUTIONS OF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BLANKETED MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER STREAMS AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN STREAM PV MAX...ROBUST IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS NOW PROGGED TO BE QUICKER AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHEARS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS AND EC BOTH DROPPED
THEIR LAYER PWAT VALUES FOR LBF BY ALMOST HALF AN INCH ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY QPF. THE RESULT IS A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY CUT OUT
POPS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS WITHIN THE
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERATING QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AT A PREMIUM AND ANY SNOWFALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE AS H85 TEMPS COOL TO -10C TO -16C ACROSS THE
CWA....KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVERTS BACK
TO THE FAMILIAR WEST COAST RIDGE AND STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST PRIOR TO 12Z...THEN DIMINISH
THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR STRATUS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING AT
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG












000
FXUS63 KLBF 282317
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
517 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE DEEP TROUGH OUT EAST JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT DIPPING DOWN
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WAS TIGHTENED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ONGOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP TO
700MB FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS...THE DEEP MIXING BROUGHT GUSTS UP TO 43KTS TO THE SURFACE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED FOR ALL
AREAS. THE DEEP MIXING ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED IN PLACES. WAS ALSO SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. HOWEVER WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
ANYTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE VERY DRY
WITH CEILINGS AT 6-9K FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -2C TO -7C BY 18Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STAY HIGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
NOT BEGIN TO RELAX UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF AT ALL
THESE MAY BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS MAY DROP OFF
EARLIER. SEEING SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING IN
AGAIN. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 0C. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRENDED LOWS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL JET STILL
DEVELOPS DURING THE PERIOD...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SFC TEMPS BY SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN SANDHILLS. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE CA/MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK MID
LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULT IN A MEAGER WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/NAM/EC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED MUCH DRIER ACROSS
NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THE 00Z SOLUTIONS OF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BLANKETED MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER STREAMS AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN STREAM PV MAX...ROBUST IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS NOW PROGGED TO BE QUICKER AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHEARS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS AND EC BOTH DROPPED
THEIR LAYER PWAT VALUES FOR LBF BY ALMOST HALF AN INCH ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY QPF. THE RESULT IS A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY CUT OUT
POPS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS WITHIN THE
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERATING QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AT A PREMIUM AND ANY SNOWFALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE AS H85 TEMPS COOL TO -10C TO -16C ACROSS THE
CWA....KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVERTS BACK
TO THE FAMILIAR WEST COAST RIDGE AND STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH
DECREASING WINDS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO THINKING A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 282317
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
517 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE DEEP TROUGH OUT EAST JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT DIPPING DOWN
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WAS TIGHTENED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ONGOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP TO
700MB FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS...THE DEEP MIXING BROUGHT GUSTS UP TO 43KTS TO THE SURFACE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED FOR ALL
AREAS. THE DEEP MIXING ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED IN PLACES. WAS ALSO SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. HOWEVER WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
ANYTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE VERY DRY
WITH CEILINGS AT 6-9K FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -2C TO -7C BY 18Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STAY HIGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
NOT BEGIN TO RELAX UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF AT ALL
THESE MAY BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS MAY DROP OFF
EARLIER. SEEING SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING IN
AGAIN. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 0C. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRENDED LOWS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL JET STILL
DEVELOPS DURING THE PERIOD...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SFC TEMPS BY SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN SANDHILLS. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE CA/MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK MID
LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULT IN A MEAGER WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/NAM/EC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED MUCH DRIER ACROSS
NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THE 00Z SOLUTIONS OF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BLANKETED MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER STREAMS AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN STREAM PV MAX...ROBUST IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS NOW PROGGED TO BE QUICKER AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHEARS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS AND EC BOTH DROPPED
THEIR LAYER PWAT VALUES FOR LBF BY ALMOST HALF AN INCH ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY QPF. THE RESULT IS A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY CUT OUT
POPS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS WITHIN THE
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERATING QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AT A PREMIUM AND ANY SNOWFALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE AS H85 TEMPS COOL TO -10C TO -16C ACROSS THE
CWA....KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVERTS BACK
TO THE FAMILIAR WEST COAST RIDGE AND STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH
DECREASING WINDS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO THINKING A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 282109
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE DEEP TROUGH OUT EAST JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT DIPPING DOWN
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WAS TIGHTENED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ONGOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP TO
700MB FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS...THE DEEP MIXING BROUGHT GUSTS UP TO 43KTS TO THE SURFACE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED FOR ALL
AREAS. THE DEEP MIXING ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED IN PLACES. WAS ALSO SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. HOWEVER WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
ANYTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE VERY DRY
WITH CEILINGS AT 6-9K FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -2C TO -7C BY 18Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STAY HIGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
NOT BEGIN TO RELAX UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF AT ALL
THESE MAY BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS MAY DROP OFF
EARLIER. SEEING SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING IN
AGAIN. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 0C. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRENDED LOWS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL JET STILL
DEVELOPS DURING THE PERIOD...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SFC TEMPS BY SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN SANDHILLS. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE CA/MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK MID
LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULT IN A MEAGER WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/NAM/EC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED MUCH DRIER ACROSS
NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THE 00Z SOLUTIONS OF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BLANKETED MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER STREAMS AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN STREAM PV MAX...ROBUST IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS NOW PROGGED TO BE QUICKER AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHEARS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS AND EC BOTH DROPPED
THEIR LAYER PWAT VALUES FOR LBF BY ALMOST HALF AN INCH ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY QPF. THE RESULT IS A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY CUT OUT
POPS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS WITHIN THE
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERATING QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AT A PREMIUM AND ANY SNOWFALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE AS H85 TEMPS COOL TO -10C TO -16C ACROSS THE
CWA....KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVERTS BACK
TO THE FAMILIAR WEST COAST RIDGE AND STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH
DECREASING WINDS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO THINKING A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 282109
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
309 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE DEEP TROUGH OUT EAST JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE COLD FRONT DIPPING DOWN
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WAS TIGHTENED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ONGOING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP TO
700MB FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS...THE DEEP MIXING BROUGHT GUSTS UP TO 43KTS TO THE SURFACE
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED FOR ALL
AREAS. THE DEEP MIXING ALSO ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED IN PLACES. WAS ALSO SEEING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. HOWEVER WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
ANYTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE LOW LEVELS WERE VERY DRY
WITH CEILINGS AT 6-9K FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...BEING PUSHED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -2C TO -7C BY 18Z
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL STAY HIGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
NOT BEGIN TO RELAX UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE WINDS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING TOO FAR DESPITE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
KEPT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT IF WINDS DROP OFF AT ALL
THESE MAY BE TOO WARM AND MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS MAY DROP OFF
EARLIER. SEEING SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING IN
AGAIN. THIS INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH...WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW 0C. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE
30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

TRENDED LOWS A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH A SFC HIGH SLIDING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS A LOW LEVEL JET STILL
DEVELOPS DURING THE PERIOD...HOWEVER AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS TO BE
MORE TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS
TO THE SFC TEMPS BY SUNRISE ACROSS WESTERN SANDHILLS. SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF NEAR THE CA/MEXICAN BORDER. WEAK MID
LEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULT IN A MEAGER WARM UP FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

12Z GFS/NAM/EC AND ENSEMBLES HAVE ALL TRENDED MUCH DRIER ACROSS
NEBRASKA FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM
THE 00Z SOLUTIONS OF TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH BLANKETED MOST OF THE AREA
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER STREAMS AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN STREAM PV MAX...ROBUST IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...IS NOW PROGGED TO BE QUICKER AND MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW AND SHEARS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
MOISTURE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS AND EC BOTH DROPPED
THEIR LAYER PWAT VALUES FOR LBF BY ALMOST HALF AN INCH ON SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY QPF. THE RESULT IS A
MUCH DRIER FORECAST...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY CUT OUT
POPS UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATE SATURDAY.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DEGREE OF MIXING AND KEEP TEMPS WITHIN THE
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND GENERATING QPF OVER PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AT A PREMIUM AND ANY SNOWFALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL STRUGGLE AS H85 TEMPS COOL TO -10C TO -16C ACROSS THE
CWA....KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REVERTS BACK
TO THE FAMILIAR WEST COAST RIDGE AND STRONG LOW OVER THE HUDSON
BAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH
DECREASING WINDS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO THINKING A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281924
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
124 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING ONGOING TO
AROUND 750MB IN SOME AREAS WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AT 19Z WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND THE DEEP MIXING WINDS WERE
STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE BEING
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KMCK. THESE AREAS HAVE OBSERVED FREQUENT SPEEDS OF
30KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS. THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON JUST
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...HAVE REACHED
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE MIXING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. MAY BE ABLE TO GET ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO YET THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST FOR THIS...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE VERY NEAR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH
DECREASING WINDS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO THINKING A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT IN
THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281924
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
124 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING ONGOING TO
AROUND 750MB IN SOME AREAS WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AT 19Z WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND THE DEEP MIXING WINDS WERE
STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE BEING
OBSERVED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH AROUND KMCK. THESE AREAS HAVE OBSERVED FREQUENT SPEEDS OF
30KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS. THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON JUST
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...HAVE REACHED
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ALTHOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE MIXING HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. MAY BE ABLE TO GET ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO YET THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST FOR THIS...BUT WITH THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION THINK CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE VERY NEAR
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH
DECREASING WINDS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO THINKING A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT IN
THE MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BROOKS
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 281801
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1201 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH
DECREASING WINDS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO THINKING A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281801
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1201 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KVTN TO KLBF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN GOING
THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY SO THE FORECAST TRENDS WITH
DECREASING WINDS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO THINKING A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS TO MIX OUT IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BROOKS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 281214
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS DROOPING DOWN TO 10000 FT
AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP DOWN TO 2500
FT AGL OVERNIGHT AT THE KVTN TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 281214
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
614 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS DROOPING DOWN TO 10000 FT
AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL DROP DOWN TO 2500
FT AGL OVERNIGHT AT THE KVTN TERMINAL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 280958
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
32022G29KT AFTER 18Z AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 10K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS. JUST INTRODUCED A SCT025 FOR KVTN AFTER 03Z UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG






000
FXUS63 KLBF 280958
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
32022G29KT AFTER 18Z AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 10K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS. JUST INTRODUCED A SCT025 FOR KVTN AFTER 03Z UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 280958
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
32022G29KT AFTER 18Z AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 10K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS. JUST INTRODUCED A SCT025 FOR KVTN AFTER 03Z UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG






000
FXUS63 KLBF 280958
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER SWRN IDAHO. CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS
THE SWRN IDAHO SHORTWAVE NOW OVER FAR NRN UTAH...ENTERING SWRN
WYOMING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA SWD INTO THE OZARKS. WEST OF THIS FEATURE...LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WERE PRESENT...WHILE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS WERE FROM
THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST. AS OF 3 AM CST...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA. READINGS AS OF 3 AM CST
RANGED FROM 26 AT NORTH PLATTE TO 45 AT OGALLALA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND THE
THREAT FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THE NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND WINDS TONIGHT. FOR
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SWRN WYOMING...WILL LIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AND EAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO MONTANA. H850 WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
BY 21Z...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
EFFICIENT MIXING TAKES PLACE WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM H850 TO THE SFC.
WITH GOOD MIXING AND H85 TEMPS IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TDY...HIGHS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY
FOLLOWED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS VERIFIED NICELY THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...THERE
WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPG SHORTWAVE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW AS THE BEST LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGES OF COLORADO AND SERN
WYOMING. AS THE SHOWERS LIFT EAST...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...THUS THE LOW POPS. FOR TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR. BY 12Z THURSDAY...H85
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -7C IN THE NORTHEAST...TO -2C IN THE
SOUTHWEST. WITH BREEZY CONDS FCST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S. ATTM...DECIDED TO LEAVE A DRY FCST IN
PLACE...EVEN IN LIGHT OF A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
APPROACHES NORTHERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN IS
INDICATING SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS FCST BEING
DRY. WILL GIVE A HEADS UP TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT AND HAVE THEM WATCH
THE MODEL TRENDS TDY FOR TONIGHTS FCST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

A HYBRID OF PACIFIC AND ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. H850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF -3C WEST TO -10C FARTHER EAST WILL ENSURE FOR A
CHILLY DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO LESS WIND THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND WINDS ALOFT DECREASE. PACIFIC AIR SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. A BIT OF
THIS WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE FAVORED AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE SANDHILLS...HELPING TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH THE PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE.

INTERESTING SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE
PLUMB OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE...ORIGINATING OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN CONUS BY FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AND SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE ALL INTERACT. THE KEY TO ANSWERING THAT QUESTION APPEARS TO
BE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THIS ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DETERMINE IF
SNOW DEVELOPS OR NOT. IF THE ENERGY IS QUICKER THAN MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THEN THE MOISTURE NEEDED FOR SNOW
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY ALL
MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF...ARE SUCH THAT THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS SLOW ENOUGH FOR THE
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP WITHIN REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. ONCE
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
SNOW WILL RAPIDLY COME TO AN END AS DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY DEVELOPS. WILL
NUDGE THE GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MODELS AGREE THIS EVENING ON THE SLOWER NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COMING INTO PLAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND SEE IF THE SLOWER WETTER/SNOWIER MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA.

MORE CERTAIN WILL BE THE COLDER WEATHER THAT WILL BE INTRODUCED BACK
TO THE AREA AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PASSES. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS SATURDAY...MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY...EXPECT A BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR TO
BE DRAWN SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TUESDAY...WITH A MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
32022G29KT AFTER 18Z AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 10K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS. JUST INTRODUCED A SCT025 FOR KVTN AFTER 03Z UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...ROBERG





000
FXUS63 KLBF 280513
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1113 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS...AND A 576DM RIDGE
BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE CORE
OF THE WARMEST 850HPA TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE 850HPA TEMPS WILL STILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 10C IN THE PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AT 28/12Z. DESPITE SURFACE WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
28/06Z AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED. THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE COLD AIR DRAINING WHILE THE WIND REMAINS
LIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOWS NEAR 30F.

AFTER 28/12Z...STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE IN THE PANHANDLE AND WORK
EASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50KTS AT 850HPA ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE. WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE...NOT EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO EXCEED 15KTS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 28/15Z. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GRADUALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL HELP JUMP TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S BY 28/18Z.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER
60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE SPEEDS APPROACH 25KTS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR
THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE /PRIMARILY
500 TO 750HPA/ IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 28/21Z. ATMOSPHERIC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT THE GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8C/KM. TOYED WITH INTRODUCING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE SURFACE TO 800HPA AS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION
OF SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THE UNDERLYING LAYER
IS STILL QUITE DRY. AS A RESULT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. IT IS ENOUGH TO HAVE A MENTION
OF SPRINKLES (VERY LIGHT SHOWERS).

A FRONT COMING ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SNOW EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET ANY KIND OF FIX ON THE AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND COLORADO AND THEN ACROSS THE TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
FRONT STALLED...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
32022G29KT AFTER 18Z AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 10K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS. JUST INTRODUCED A SCT025 FOR KVTN AFTER 03Z UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG








000
FXUS63 KLBF 280513
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1113 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS...AND A 576DM RIDGE
BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE CORE
OF THE WARMEST 850HPA TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE 850HPA TEMPS WILL STILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 10C IN THE PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AT 28/12Z. DESPITE SURFACE WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
28/06Z AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED. THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE COLD AIR DRAINING WHILE THE WIND REMAINS
LIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOWS NEAR 30F.

AFTER 28/12Z...STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE IN THE PANHANDLE AND WORK
EASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50KTS AT 850HPA ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE. WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE...NOT EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO EXCEED 15KTS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 28/15Z. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GRADUALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL HELP JUMP TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S BY 28/18Z.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER
60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE SPEEDS APPROACH 25KTS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR
THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE /PRIMARILY
500 TO 750HPA/ IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 28/21Z. ATMOSPHERIC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT THE GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8C/KM. TOYED WITH INTRODUCING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE SURFACE TO 800HPA AS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION
OF SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THE UNDERLYING LAYER
IS STILL QUITE DRY. AS A RESULT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. IT IS ENOUGH TO HAVE A MENTION
OF SPRINKLES (VERY LIGHT SHOWERS).

A FRONT COMING ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SNOW EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET ANY KIND OF FIX ON THE AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND COLORADO AND THEN ACROSS THE TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
FRONT STALLED...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
32022G29KT AFTER 18Z AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE A
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS NEAR 10K FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
21Z...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS AND MVFR
CEILINGS. JUST INTRODUCED A SCT025 FOR KVTN AFTER 03Z UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG









000
FXUS63 KLBF 272256
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
456 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS...AND A 576DM RIDGE
BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE CORE
OF THE WARMEST 850HPA TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE 850HPA TEMPS WILL STILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 10C IN THE PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AT 28/12Z. DESPITE SURFACE WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
28/06Z AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED. THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE COLD AIR DRAINING WHILE THE WIND REMAINS
LIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOWS NEAR 30F.

AFTER 28/12Z...STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE IN THE PANHANDLE AND WORK
EASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50KTS AT 850HPA ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE. WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE...NOT EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO EXCEED 15KTS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 28/15Z. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GRADUALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL HELP JUMP TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S BY 28/18Z.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER
60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE SPEEDS APPROACH 25KTS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR
THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE /PRIMARILY
500 TO 750HPA/ IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 28/21Z. ATMOSPHERIC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT THE GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8C/KM. TOYED WITH INTRODUCING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE SURFACE TO 800HPA AS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION
OF SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THE UNDERLYING LAYER
IS STILL QUITE DRY. AS A RESULT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. IT IS ENOUGH TO HAVE A MENTION
OF SPRINKLES (VERY LIGHT SHOWERS).

A FRONT COMING ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SNOW EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET ANY KIND OF FIX ON THE AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND COLORADO AND THEN ACROSS THE TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
FRONT STALLED...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WIND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME 280-310 AT
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 18-21G28-30KT BY 19Z.
OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER








000
FXUS63 KLBF 272256
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
456 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS...AND A 576DM RIDGE
BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE CORE
OF THE WARMEST 850HPA TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE 850HPA TEMPS WILL STILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 10C IN THE PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AT 28/12Z. DESPITE SURFACE WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
28/06Z AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED. THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE COLD AIR DRAINING WHILE THE WIND REMAINS
LIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOWS NEAR 30F.

AFTER 28/12Z...STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE IN THE PANHANDLE AND WORK
EASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50KTS AT 850HPA ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE. WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE...NOT EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO EXCEED 15KTS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 28/15Z. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GRADUALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL HELP JUMP TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S BY 28/18Z.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER
60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE SPEEDS APPROACH 25KTS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR
THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE /PRIMARILY
500 TO 750HPA/ IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 28/21Z. ATMOSPHERIC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT THE GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8C/KM. TOYED WITH INTRODUCING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE SURFACE TO 800HPA AS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION
OF SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THE UNDERLYING LAYER
IS STILL QUITE DRY. AS A RESULT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. IT IS ENOUGH TO HAVE A MENTION
OF SPRINKLES (VERY LIGHT SHOWERS).

A FRONT COMING ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SNOW EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET ANY KIND OF FIX ON THE AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND COLORADO AND THEN ACROSS THE TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
FRONT STALLED...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

WIND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME 280-310 AT
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z AND INCREASE FURTHER TO 18-21G28-30KT BY 19Z.
OTHERWISE...UNLIMITED CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER







000
FXUS63 KLBF 272102
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
302 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS...AND A 576DM RIDGE
BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE CORE
OF THE WARMEST 850HPA TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE 850HPA TEMPS WILL STILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 10C IN THE PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AT 28/12Z. DESPITE SURFACE WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
28/06Z AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED. THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE COLD AIR DRAINING WHILE THE WIND REMAINS
LIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOWS NEAR 30F.

AFTER 28/12Z...STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE IN THE PANHANDLE AND WORK
EASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50KTS AT 850HPA ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE. WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE...NOT EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO EXCEED 15KTS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 28/15Z. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GRADUALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL HELP JUMP TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S BY 28/18Z.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER
60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE SPEEDS APPROACH 25KTS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR
THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE /PRIMARILY
500 TO 750HPA/ IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 28/21Z. ATMOSPHERIC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT THE GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8C/KM. TOYED WITH INTRODUCING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE SURFACE TO 800HPA AS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION
OF SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THE UNDERLYING LAYER
IS STILL QUITE DRY. AS A RESULT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. IT IS ENOUGH TO HAVE A MENTION
OF SPRINKLES (VERY LIGHT SHOWERS).

A FRONT COMING ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SNOW EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET ANY KIND OF FIX ON THE AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND COLORADO AND THEN ACROSS THE TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
FRONT STALLED...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH 28/18Z. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SIGNAL A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO
ABOVE 12 KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS







000
FXUS63 KLBF 272102
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
302 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS...AND A 576DM RIDGE
BROUGHT RECORD WARMTH TO MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY. THE CORE
OF THE WARMEST 850HPA TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE 850HPA TEMPS WILL STILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 10C IN THE PANHANDLE TO 15C NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AT 28/12Z. DESPITE SURFACE WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
28/06Z AND CONTINUED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CLIMO WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EXPECTED. THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE COLD AIR DRAINING WHILE THE WIND REMAINS
LIGHT AND HAVE KEPT LOWS NEAR 30F.

AFTER 28/12Z...STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE IN THE PANHANDLE AND WORK
EASTWARD. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE 50KTS AT 850HPA ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SPEEDS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40KT RANGE. WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE...NOT EXPECTING SURFACE WINDS TO EXCEED 15KTS...AT LEAST
THROUGH 28/15Z. DESPITE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...GRADUALLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL HELP JUMP TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S BY 28/18Z.
CONTINUED THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER
60S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE SPEEDS APPROACH 25KTS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

THE SYSTEM APPEARS DRY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR
THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE /PRIMARILY
500 TO 750HPA/ IS PRESENT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 28/21Z. ATMOSPHERIC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SOME LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER...BUT THE GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8C/KM. TOYED WITH INTRODUCING LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE PINE
RIDGE...BUT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THE SURFACE TO 800HPA AS
INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTION
OF SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE SYSTEM RELATIVE LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 295-305K LAYER ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THE UNDERLYING LAYER
IS STILL QUITE DRY. AS A RESULT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. IT IS ENOUGH TO HAVE A MENTION
OF SPRINKLES (VERY LIGHT SHOWERS).

A FRONT COMING ACROSS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE SOME SYSTEM-RELATIVE LIFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SNOW EXTENDING INTO THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SATURDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET ANY KIND OF FIX ON THE AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND COLORADO AND THEN ACROSS THE TEXAS RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE
FRONT STALLED...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH 28/18Z. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SIGNAL A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO
ABOVE 12 KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 271720
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1120 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

H5 ANALYSIS  FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SWD
TO CAPE HATTERAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW
MEXICO...NNW INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND SWRN CANADA. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND NRN FLORIDA. IN ADDITION
TO THESE FEATURES...A CUTOFF LOW WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AN SRN PLAINS. ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA INTO
NERN WYOMING...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S AS OF 3 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. FOR TODAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST WITH ITS AXIS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 00Z THIS EVENING. VERY
WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TDY...WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM 15C IN THE EAST...TO 19C IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...UTILIZED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...AS THE MET
GUIDANCE...SEEMS TO HAVE A COOL BIAS...WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UTILIZING THE MAV GUIDANCE YIELDED HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE SRLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA...GAVE A 1-2 DEG BOOST TO MAV
HIGHS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH YIELDED A HIGH OF
73 IN NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. IF A HIGH OF 73 WERE TO OCCUR
IN NORTH PLATTE...WE WOULD SHATTER THE RECORD HIGH OF 67 SET
PREVIOUSLY IN 2003 AND WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR
JANUARY. FOR IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...FCST HIGHS TDY
ARE 73...69 AND 69 RESPECTIVELY. RECORD HIGHS FOR
IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...ARE 67...74...AND 68...SO
RECORD HIGHS FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL SHOULD BE TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MIN RH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 20
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH EXPECTED. FOR
TONIGHT...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST FORCED ALONG BY
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH STILL 6C TO 12C FOR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP MIX THE BL AND HIGHS
STILL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRAILS LATE IN THE DAY. MARGINAL LIFT AND A DRY LOWER
LEVEL...HOWEVER DECENT MOISTURE ALOFT RIDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS NW...HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS SOME WILL BE
LOST TO SATURATION. FORECAST IS FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES.

WESTERLY RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SURGES SOUTH...AFTERNOON
TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
FIRST IS THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH...WHICH ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE A 500 MB LOW DIGS OVER SRN CAL INTO THE DESERT
SW. ALSO SEEING A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
DRAW SOME MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD. OVERALL THERE IS
A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONG WITH THIS SOUTHWESTER LOW. RESULTING
WEATHER FOR THE AREA HAS CHANGED WITH MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL MAKE...AND HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WILL PLAY INTO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO THE CWA. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND ZERO C FRIDAY NIGHT AND FALLING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT HEATING...HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST EC IS THE COOLEST
WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -6 TO -10 C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS -2 TO -5. FORECAST IS A
BLEND...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE 20S WOULD BE FAVORED IF THE COOLER
EC VERIFIES.

SUNDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RVR VALLEY. THE
COLDEST AIR IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER N CENTRAL
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS NEAR 10. THE SW IS WARMEST
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH 28/18Z. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SIGNAL A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO
ABOVE 12 KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS









000
FXUS63 KLBF 271720
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1120 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

H5 ANALYSIS  FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SWD
TO CAPE HATTERAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW
MEXICO...NNW INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND SWRN CANADA. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND NRN FLORIDA. IN ADDITION
TO THESE FEATURES...A CUTOFF LOW WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AN SRN PLAINS. ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA INTO
NERN WYOMING...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S AS OF 3 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. FOR TODAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST WITH ITS AXIS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 00Z THIS EVENING. VERY
WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TDY...WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM 15C IN THE EAST...TO 19C IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...UTILIZED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...AS THE MET
GUIDANCE...SEEMS TO HAVE A COOL BIAS...WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UTILIZING THE MAV GUIDANCE YIELDED HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE SRLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA...GAVE A 1-2 DEG BOOST TO MAV
HIGHS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH YIELDED A HIGH OF
73 IN NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. IF A HIGH OF 73 WERE TO OCCUR
IN NORTH PLATTE...WE WOULD SHATTER THE RECORD HIGH OF 67 SET
PREVIOUSLY IN 2003 AND WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR
JANUARY. FOR IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...FCST HIGHS TDY
ARE 73...69 AND 69 RESPECTIVELY. RECORD HIGHS FOR
IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...ARE 67...74...AND 68...SO
RECORD HIGHS FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL SHOULD BE TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MIN RH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 20
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH EXPECTED. FOR
TONIGHT...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST FORCED ALONG BY
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH STILL 6C TO 12C FOR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP MIX THE BL AND HIGHS
STILL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRAILS LATE IN THE DAY. MARGINAL LIFT AND A DRY LOWER
LEVEL...HOWEVER DECENT MOISTURE ALOFT RIDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS NW...HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS SOME WILL BE
LOST TO SATURATION. FORECAST IS FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES.

WESTERLY RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SURGES SOUTH...AFTERNOON
TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
FIRST IS THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH...WHICH ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE A 500 MB LOW DIGS OVER SRN CAL INTO THE DESERT
SW. ALSO SEEING A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
DRAW SOME MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD. OVERALL THERE IS
A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONG WITH THIS SOUTHWESTER LOW. RESULTING
WEATHER FOR THE AREA HAS CHANGED WITH MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL MAKE...AND HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WILL PLAY INTO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO THE CWA. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND ZERO C FRIDAY NIGHT AND FALLING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT HEATING...HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST EC IS THE COOLEST
WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -6 TO -10 C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS -2 TO -5. FORECAST IS A
BLEND...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE 20S WOULD BE FAVORED IF THE COOLER
EC VERIFIES.

SUNDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RVR VALLEY. THE
COLDEST AIR IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER N CENTRAL
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS NEAR 10. THE SW IS WARMEST
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH 28/18Z. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
WILL SIGNAL A WIND SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO
ABOVE 12 KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...DS








000
FXUS63 KLBF 271158
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
558 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

H5 ANALYSIS  FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SWD
TO CAPE HATTERAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW
MEXICO...NNW INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND SWRN CANADA. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND NRN FLORIDA. IN ADDITION
TO THESE FEATURES...A CUTOFF LOW WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AN SRN PLAINS. ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA INTO
NERN WYOMING...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S AS OF 3 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. FOR TODAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST WITH ITS AXIS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 00Z THIS EVENING. VERY
WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TDY...WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM 15C IN THE EAST...TO 19C IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...UTILIZED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...AS THE MET
GUIDANCE...SEEMS TO HAVE A COOL BIAS...WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UTILIZING THE MAV GUIDANCE YIELDED HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE SRLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA...GAVE A 1-2 DEG BOOST TO MAV
HIGHS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH YIELDED A HIGH OF
73 IN NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. IF A HIGH OF 73 WERE TO OCCUR
IN NORTH PLATTE...WE WOULD SHATTER THE RECORD HIGH OF 67 SET
PREVIOUSLY IN 2003 AND WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR
JANUARY. FOR IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...FCST HIGHS TDY
ARE 73...69 AND 69 RESPECTIVELY. RECORD HIGHS FOR
IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...ARE 67...74...AND 68...SO
RECORD HIGHS FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL SHOULD BE TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MIN RH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 20
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH EXPECTED. FOR
TONIGHT...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST FORCED ALONG BY
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH STILL 6C TO 12C FOR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP MIX THE BL AND HIGHS
STILL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRAILS LATE IN THE DAY. MARGINAL LIFT AND A DRY LOWER
LEVEL...HOWEVER DECENT MOISTURE ALOFT RIDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS NW...HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS SOME WILL BE
LOST TO SATURATION. FORECAST IS FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES.

WESTERLY RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SURGES SOUTH...AFTERNOON
TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
FIRST IS THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH...WHICH ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE A 500 MB LOW DIGS OVER SRN CAL INTO THE DESERT
SW. ALSO SEEING A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
DRAW SOME MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD. OVERALL THERE IS
A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONG WITH THIS SOUTHWESTER LOW. RESULTING
WEATHER FOR THE AREA HAS CHANGED WITH MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL MAKE...AND HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WILL PLAY INTO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO THE CWA. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND ZERO C FRIDAY NIGHT AND FALLING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT HEATING...HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST EC IS THE COOLEST
WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -6 TO -10 C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS -2 TO -5. FORECAST IS A
BLEND...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE 20S WOULD BE FAVORED IF THE COOLER
EC VERIFIES.

SUNDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RVR VALLEY. THE
COLDEST AIR IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER N CENTRAL
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS NEAR 10. THE SW IS WARMEST
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IS
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB








000
FXUS63 KLBF 271158
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
558 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

H5 ANALYSIS  FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SWD
TO CAPE HATTERAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW
MEXICO...NNW INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND SWRN CANADA. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND NRN FLORIDA. IN ADDITION
TO THESE FEATURES...A CUTOFF LOW WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AN SRN PLAINS. ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA INTO
NERN WYOMING...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S AS OF 3 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. FOR TODAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST WITH ITS AXIS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 00Z THIS EVENING. VERY
WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TDY...WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM 15C IN THE EAST...TO 19C IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...UTILIZED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...AS THE MET
GUIDANCE...SEEMS TO HAVE A COOL BIAS...WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UTILIZING THE MAV GUIDANCE YIELDED HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE SRLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA...GAVE A 1-2 DEG BOOST TO MAV
HIGHS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH YIELDED A HIGH OF
73 IN NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. IF A HIGH OF 73 WERE TO OCCUR
IN NORTH PLATTE...WE WOULD SHATTER THE RECORD HIGH OF 67 SET
PREVIOUSLY IN 2003 AND WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR
JANUARY. FOR IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...FCST HIGHS TDY
ARE 73...69 AND 69 RESPECTIVELY. RECORD HIGHS FOR
IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...ARE 67...74...AND 68...SO
RECORD HIGHS FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL SHOULD BE TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MIN RH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 20
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH EXPECTED. FOR
TONIGHT...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST FORCED ALONG BY
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH STILL 6C TO 12C FOR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP MIX THE BL AND HIGHS
STILL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRAILS LATE IN THE DAY. MARGINAL LIFT AND A DRY LOWER
LEVEL...HOWEVER DECENT MOISTURE ALOFT RIDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS NW...HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS SOME WILL BE
LOST TO SATURATION. FORECAST IS FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES.

WESTERLY RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SURGES SOUTH...AFTERNOON
TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
FIRST IS THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH...WHICH ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE A 500 MB LOW DIGS OVER SRN CAL INTO THE DESERT
SW. ALSO SEEING A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
DRAW SOME MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD. OVERALL THERE IS
A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONG WITH THIS SOUTHWESTER LOW. RESULTING
WEATHER FOR THE AREA HAS CHANGED WITH MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL MAKE...AND HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WILL PLAY INTO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO THE CWA. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND ZERO C FRIDAY NIGHT AND FALLING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT HEATING...HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST EC IS THE COOLEST
WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -6 TO -10 C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS -2 TO -5. FORECAST IS A
BLEND...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE 20S WOULD BE FAVORED IF THE COOLER
EC VERIFIES.

SUNDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RVR VALLEY. THE
COLDEST AIR IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER N CENTRAL
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS NEAR 10. THE SW IS WARMEST
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS AT UNDER 10 KTS. THE ONLY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IS
SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AON 25000 FT AGL POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB







000
FXUS63 KLBF 270938
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

H5 ANALYSIS  FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SWD
TO CAPE HATTERAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW
MEXICO...NNW INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND SWRN CANADA. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND NRN FLORIDA. IN ADDITION
TO THESE FEATURES...A CUTOFF LOW WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AN SRN PLAINS. ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA INTO
NERN WYOMING...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S AS OF 3 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. FOR TODAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST WITH ITS AXIS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 00Z THIS EVENING. VERY
WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TDY...WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM 15C IN THE EAST...TO 19C IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...UTILIZED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...AS THE MET
GUIDANCE...SEEMS TO HAVE A COOL BIAS...WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UTILIZING THE MAV GUIDANCE YIELDED HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE SRLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA...GAVE A 1-2 DEG BOOST TO MAV
HIGHS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH YIELDED A HIGH OF
73 IN NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. IF A HIGH OF 73 WERE TO OCCUR
IN NORTH PLATTE...WE WOULD SHATTER THE RECORD HIGH OF 67 SET
PREVIOUSLY IN 2003 AND WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR
JANUARY. FOR IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...FCST HIGHS TDY
ARE 73...69 AND 69 RESPECTIVELY. RECORD HIGHS FOR
IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...ARE 67...74...AND 68...SO
RECORD HIGHS FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL SHOULD BE TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MIN RH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 20
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH EXPECTED. FOR
TONIGHT...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST FORCED ALONG BY
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH STILL 6C TO 12C FOR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP MIX THE BL AND HIGHS
STILL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRAILS LATE IN THE DAY. MARGINAL LIFT AND A DRY LOWER
LEVEL...HOWEVER DECENT MOISTURE ALOFT RIDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS NW...HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS SOME WILL BE
LOST TO SATURATION. FORECAST IS FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES.

WESTERLY RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SURGES SOUTH...AFTERNOON
TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
FIRST IS THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH...WHICH ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE A 500 MB LOW DIGS OVER SRN CAL INTO THE DESERT
SW. ALSO SEEING A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
DRAW SOME MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD. OVERALL THERE IS
A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONG WITH THIS SOUTHWESTER LOW. RESULTING
WEATHER FOR THE AREA HAS CHANGED WITH MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL MAKE...AND HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WILL PLAY INTO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO THE CWA. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND ZERO C FRIDAY NIGHT AND FALLING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT HEATING...HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST EC IS THE COOLEST
WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -6 TO -10 C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS -2 TO -5. FORECAST IS A
BLEND...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE 20S WOULD BE FAVORED IF THE COOLER
EC VERIFIES.

SUNDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RVR VALLEY. THE
COLDEST AIR IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER N CENTRAL
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS NEAR 10. THE SW IS WARMEST
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG







000
FXUS63 KLBF 270938
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

H5 ANALYSIS  FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAD A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SWD
TO CAPE HATTERAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW
MEXICO...NNW INTO WASHINGTON STATE AND SWRN CANADA. ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM NORTH
DAKOTA...INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND NRN FLORIDA. IN ADDITION
TO THESE FEATURES...A CUTOFF LOW WAS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF SRN
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AN SRN PLAINS. ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA INTO
NERN WYOMING...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS PRESENT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S AS OF 3 AM CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN. FOR TODAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST WITH ITS AXIS
ORIENTED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY 00Z THIS EVENING. VERY
WARM H85 TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TDY...WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM 15C IN THE EAST...TO 19C IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR HIGHS
TODAY...UTILIZED THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE...AS THE MET
GUIDANCE...SEEMS TO HAVE A COOL BIAS...WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. UTILIZING THE MAV GUIDANCE YIELDED HIGHS
FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...WHERE SRLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR NORTH
PLATTE...IMPERIAL AND OGALLALA...GAVE A 1-2 DEG BOOST TO MAV
HIGHS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH YIELDED A HIGH OF
73 IN NORTH PLATTE THIS AFTERNOON. IF A HIGH OF 73 WERE TO OCCUR
IN NORTH PLATTE...WE WOULD SHATTER THE RECORD HIGH OF 67 SET
PREVIOUSLY IN 2003 AND WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR
JANUARY. FOR IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...FCST HIGHS TDY
ARE 73...69 AND 69 RESPECTIVELY. RECORD HIGHS FOR
IMPERIAL...BROKEN BOW AND VALENTINE...ARE 67...74...AND 68...SO
RECORD HIGHS FOR VALENTINE AND IMPERIAL SHOULD BE TIED OR BROKEN
TODAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MIN RH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 20
PERCENT...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH EXPECTED. FOR
TONIGHT...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRANSITION EAST FORCED ALONG BY
A SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
30S...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH STILL 6C TO 12C FOR EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP MIX THE BL AND HIGHS
STILL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRAILS LATE IN THE DAY. MARGINAL LIFT AND A DRY LOWER
LEVEL...HOWEVER DECENT MOISTURE ALOFT RIDING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND WITH TOP DOWN SATURATION...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS NW...HIGHER TERRAIN...IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE NAM IS STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES A FEW
HUNDREDTHS...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS SOME WILL BE
LOST TO SATURATION. FORECAST IS FOR A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES.

WESTERLY RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON THURSDAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD
TREND FOR THURSDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH SURGES SOUTH...AFTERNOON
TEMPS STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S.

FRIDAY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO NOTE.
FIRST IS THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH...WHICH ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE A 500 MB LOW DIGS OVER SRN CAL INTO THE DESERT
SW. ALSO SEEING A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL
DRAW SOME MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD. OVERALL THERE IS
A CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH AND STRONG WITH THIS SOUTHWESTER LOW. RESULTING
WEATHER FOR THE AREA HAS CHANGED WITH MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO
THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL MAKE...AND HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER WILL PLAY INTO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO THE CWA. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND ZERO C FRIDAY NIGHT AND FALLING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THE INCREASE OF CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT HEATING...HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE ALL LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST EC IS THE COOLEST
WITH 850 TEMPS DOWN TO -6 TO -10 C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
REST OF THE MODEL SUITE IS -2 TO -5. FORECAST IS A
BLEND...HOWEVER HIGHS IN THE 20S WOULD BE FAVORED IF THE COOLER
EC VERIFIES.

SUNDAY THE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI RVR VALLEY. THE
COLDEST AIR IS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER N CENTRAL
WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 20S WITH LOWS NEAR 10. THE SW IS WARMEST
IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IN FACT...CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG






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