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000
FXUS64 KLCH 301120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING CLR SKIES AND NE WINDS. VFR FLIGHT RULES TO HOLD THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NE FLOW BEHIND IT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...WITH LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF.
THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH SECONDARY
FROPA. THUS...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE WITH ONGOING FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND MON...WITH
RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO
WED. DIDN`T GO HIGHER THAN 40% FOR CONFIDENCE REASONS...AS STILL
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HOWEVER...BOTH ARE NOW SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH
POSSIBLY INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF AN EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE.
STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES
HERE.

DML

MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS BY FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  75  43  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
KBPT  76  55  75  46  62 /  10   0   0   0   0
KAEX  75  50  72  38  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  74  41  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 300735
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NE FLOW BEHIND IT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...WITH LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF.
THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH SECONDARY
FROPA. THUS...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE WITH ONGOING FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND MON...WITH
RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO
WED. DIDN`T GO HIGHER THAN 40% FOR CONFIDENCE REASONS...AS STILL
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HOWEVER...BOTH ARE NOW SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH
POSSIBLY INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF AN EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE.
STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES
HERE.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS BY FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  75  44  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  56  75  47  62  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  50  72  39  59  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  52  74  42  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 292307
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
607 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...POST FRONTAL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFT...AND LOOKS
TO BE VERY NEAR THE COAST AS OF THIS WRITING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
INVOF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER...STILL EXTENDING NWD
TO NEAR KAEX...IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH IN TANDEM WITH THE
FRONT...WITH ALL INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN LA...WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD...WITH
MORNING LOWS THU EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE THIS MORNING.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THU...WITH A SECONDARY AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...USHERING IN A SURGE OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR. HIGHS FRI
ARE STILL FCST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S...BUT READINGS WILL DROP
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LA AND THE MID 40S OVER SE TX BY SAT MORNING. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER
60S. THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...WERE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL LA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE WARMING AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
ADVANCING WRN CONUS TROF. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE A SLOW
MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUE-WED...WITH A GOOD FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING WITH AT LEAST MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
RETURN TO BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN. GFS PWAT PROGS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH POPS IN THE MID CHANCE RANGE...BUT SHOULD
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD AND TIMING DIFFERENCES DECREASE...THIS
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE INCREASED IN LATER FCSTS.

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
SOUTH FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  76  53  75  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
KBPT  56  77  55  76  46 /  10  10   0   0   0
KAEX  48  75  50  72  38 /  10  10   0   0   0
KLFT  52  76  52  74  41 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 292136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFT...AND LOOKS
TO BE VERY NEAR THE COAST AS OF THIS WRITING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
INVOF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. THE POST FRONTAL CLOUD COVER...STILL EXTENDING NWD
TO NEAR KAEX...IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH IN TANDEM WITH THE
FRONT...WITH ALL INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. DRIER AND COOLER AIR...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN LA...WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD...WITH
MORNING LOWS THU EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE THIS MORNING.

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THU...WITH A SECONDARY AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI...USHERING IN A SURGE OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR. HIGHS FRI
ARE STILL FCST TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S...BUT READINGS WILL DROP
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LA AND THE MID 40S OVER SE TX BY SAT MORNING. CAA
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER
60S. THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
MORNING...WERE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL LA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE WARMING AHEAD OF A SLOWLY
ADVANCING WRN CONUS TROF. THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE A SLOW
MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUE-WED...WITH A GOOD FETCH OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING WITH AT LEAST MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
RETURN TO BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN. GFS PWAT PROGS ARE NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH POPS IN THE MID CHANCE RANGE...BUT SHOULD
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD AND TIMING DIFFERENCES DECREASE...THIS
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE INCREASED IN LATER FCSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
SOUTH FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  76  53  75 /  10  10   0   0
KBPT  56  77  55  76 /  10  10   0   0
KAEX  48  75  50  72 /  10  10   0   0
KLFT  52  76  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13







000
FXUS64 KLCH 291753
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1253 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...A BAND OF STRATOCU AND ALTOCU ASSOCIATED WITH THE H8
FRONTAL SURFACE EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH THE
TRAILING CLEARING LINE STILL A COUPLE OF HOURS TO THE NORTH AND
UPSTREAM FROM AEX.

EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AT AEX AND MVFR CIGS TO MOVE
INTO BPT, LCH, AND LFT. CIGS LOOK A BIT HIGHER AT VFR LEVELS BY
THE TIME THESE CLOUDS MOVE INTO ARA. ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH SOME MVFR FOG LOOKING POSSIBLE FOR LCH
LATE TNITE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SENT AN UPDATE EARLIER TO EXPIRE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CURRENT FCST
APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET...THUS SEE NO NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AROUND 14 TO 15Z THIS AM W/
SKIES BECOMING PTCLDY. CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY FROM AEX SOUTH TO ARA
INCLUDING LFT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. VFR WX AROUND AND AFTER THE
NOON HOUR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX/N LA...WITH SCT
SHRA/ISO TSRA ALONG IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
COLLAPSED...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES. FOR THIS...ISSUED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 9 AM.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ALONG
THE FROPA AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY 20-30%...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...CLOSER TO 80
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE CLOUDING OVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FROPA...WITH
CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK THU MORNING.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THU AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED
BY SUN MORNING.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY MON...WITH RETURN
FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

DML

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A STRONGER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  55  76  54  75 /  30  10  10  10   0
KBPT  80  57  76  56  75 /  30  10  10  10   0
KAEX  75  48  75  50  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
KLFT  81  54  76  52  74 /  30  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 291628
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SENT AN UPDATE EARLIER TO EXPIRE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CURRENT FCST
APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET...THUS SEE NO NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AROUND 14 TO 15Z THIS AM W/
SKIES BECOMING PTCLDY. CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY FROM AEX SOUTH TO ARA
INCLUDING LFT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. VFR WX AROUND AND AFTER THE
NOON HOUR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX/N LA...WITH SCT
SHRA/ISO TSRA ALONG IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
COLLAPSED...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES. FOR THIS...ISSUED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 9 AM.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ALONG
THE FROPA AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY 20-30%...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...CLOSER TO 80
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE CLOUDING OVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FROPA...WITH
CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK THU MORNING.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THU AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED
BY SUN MORNING.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY MON...WITH RETURN
FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

DML

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A STRONGER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  55  76  54 /  30  10  10  10
KBPT  80  57  76  56 /  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  48  75  50 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  81  54  76  52 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 291628
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SENT AN UPDATE EARLIER TO EXPIRE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CURRENT FCST
APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET...THUS SEE NO NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AROUND 14 TO 15Z THIS AM W/
SKIES BECOMING PTCLDY. CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY FROM AEX SOUTH TO ARA
INCLUDING LFT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. VFR WX AROUND AND AFTER THE
NOON HOUR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX/N LA...WITH SCT
SHRA/ISO TSRA ALONG IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
COLLAPSED...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES. FOR THIS...ISSUED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 9 AM.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ALONG
THE FROPA AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY 20-30%...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...CLOSER TO 80
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE CLOUDING OVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FROPA...WITH
CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK THU MORNING.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THU AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED
BY SUN MORNING.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY MON...WITH RETURN
FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

DML

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A STRONGER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  55  76  54 /  30  10  10  10
KBPT  80  57  76  56 /  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  48  75  50 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  81  54  76  52 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 291128
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AROUND 14 TO 15Z THIS AM W/
SKIES BECOMING PTCLDY. CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY FROM AEX SOUTH TO ARA
INCLUDING LFT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. VFR WX AROUND AND AFTER THE
NOON HOUR ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX/N LA...WITH SCT
SHRA/ISO TSRA ALONG IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
COLLAPSED...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES. FOR THIS...ISSUED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 9 AM.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ALONG
THE FROPA AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY 20-30%...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...CLOSER TO 80
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE CLOUDING OVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FROPA...WITH
CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK THU MORNING.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THU AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED
BY SUN MORNING.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY MON...WITH RETURN
FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

DML

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A STRONGER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  55  76  54  75 /  30  10  10  10   0
KBPT  80  57  76  56  75 /  30  10  10  10   0
KAEX  75  48  75  50  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
KLFT  81  54  76  52  74 /  30  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 290850
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
350 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX/N LA...WITH SCT
SHRA/ISO TSRA ALONG IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
COLLAPSED...COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUES. FOR THIS...ISSUED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 9 AM.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ALONG
THE FROPA AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY 20-30%...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE MID 70S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...CLOSER TO 80
FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE CLOUDING OVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FROPA...WITH
CLEAR SKIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK THU MORNING.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THU AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED
BY SUN MORNING.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY MON...WITH RETURN
FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A STRONGER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  55  76  54  75 /  30  10  10  10   0
KBPT  80  57  76  56  75 /  30  10  10  10   0
KAEX  75  48  75  50  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
KLFT  81  54  76  52  74 /  30  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 290209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
909 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED AT 29/01Z FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH REACHING
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT NOT
AS STRONG DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FOG FORMATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT
THIS POINT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2
MILES AT TIMES. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWS THE PWAT
VALUE NEAR NORMAL OF 1.14 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS STILL
MAINLY IN THE LOW LAYERS AND UP TO ABOUT 7K FEET. THE EARLIER
VERY ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. AND WITH THE
MOISTURE STILL RELATIVELY SHALLOW...WILL LEAVE JUST THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS.

OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND DO NOT SEE THE NEED
TO MODIFY ANY OF THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ALONG A LINE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
THROUGH WACO TO JUST NORTH OF DEL RIO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...REACHING A JACKSON-WACO-DEL RIO LINE BY
EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.

ONGOING ADVECTIVE MOISTENING WITHIN THE SURFACE LAYER MAY BRING
ABOUT IFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG TONIGHT.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTING A FEW PINPOINTS SHOWERS
OVER THE INLAND AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED WITH
MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS AND BELOW A
DIMINISHING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A
NE-SW ORIENTED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING ARKANSAS AND
TEXAS...AND OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER.

FRONT PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE AND LIFT LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY NO MORE THAN LOW END POPS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AIDED
BY A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS ONE DRY. COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE SEASON INCOMING FOR THE WEEKEND. A
MOISTENING AND WARMING RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE GULF WATERS
TODAY...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  80  56  76  53 /  10  30  20  10   0
KBPT  66  80  58  76  56 /  10  30  20  10   0
KAEX  64  75  49  75  49 /  20  30  10  10   0
KLFT  65  81  56  76  52 /  10  30  20  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 282305
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES ALONG A LINE THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
THROUGH WACO TO JUST NORTH OF DEL RIO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
TRAVEL SOUTH AND EAST...REACHING A JACKSON-WACO-DEL RIO LINE BY
EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.

ONGOING ADVECTIVE MOISTENING WITHIN THE SURFACE LAYER MAY BRING
ABOUT IFR CEILINGS AND/OR FOG TONIGHT.

JT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTING A FEW PINPOINTS SHOWERS
OVER THE INLAND AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED WITH
MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS AND BELOW A
DIMINISHING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A
NE-SW ORIENTED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING ARKANSAS AND
TEXAS...AND OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER.

FRONT PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE AND LIFT LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY NO MORE THAN LOW END POPS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AIDED
BY A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS ONE DRY. COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE SEASON INCOMING FOR THE WEEKEND. A
MOISTENING AND WARMING RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE GULF WATERS
TODAY...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  80  56  76  53 /  10  30  20  10   0
KBPT  66  80  58  76  56 /  10  30  20  10   0
KAEX  64  75  49  75  49 /  20  30  10  10   0
KLFT  65  81  56  76  52 /  10  30  20  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 282139
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
439 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTING A FEW PINPOINTS SHOWERS
OVER THE INLAND AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED WITH
MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS AND BELOW A
DIMINISHING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A
NE-SW ORIENTED STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING ARKANSAS AND
TEXAS...AND OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER.

FRONT PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE AND LIFT LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY NO MORE THAN LOW END POPS.

COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AIDED
BY A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS ONE DRY. COLDEST TEMPS OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE SEASON INCOMING FOR THE WEEKEND. A
MOISTENING AND WARMING RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE GULF WATERS
TODAY...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  80  56  76  53 /  10  30  20  10   0
KBPT  66  80  58  76  56 /  10  30  20  10   0
KAEX  64  75  49  75  49 /  20  30  10  10   0
KLFT  65  81  56  76  52 /  10  30  20  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE







000
FXUS64 KLCH 281831
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
131 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN MOIST THE PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN A BROAD SWATH FROM KLCH TO KAEX.
INSERTED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AMID GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
PROBLEMATIC...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
AGAIN ANTICIPATE A COMBINATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG BASED ON
FCST TIME HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS AND LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE
TAFS WERE CONSTRUCTED UPON A BLEND OF THIS DATA PLUS PERSISTENCE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR GULF
WATERS...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS ALIGNED
WELL WITH 1000-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS PER RUC13. WITH
GRADIENT/WINDS WEAKENING...CONVERGENCE WILL RELAX AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS SHOULD END. WILL ALLOW DRY AFTERNOON FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
NO UPDATE COMING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR VSBY THRU 14Z FOR LA SITES. RADAR SHOWING
LIGHT STREAMER SHRA OVER SE TX...WITH -SHRA NOTED AT BPT. WITH THE
WINDS REMAINING ABOVE 5 KTS AND CEILINGS FLIRTING WITH MVFR...DON`T
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH VSBY THIS MORNING. AFTER
14Z...S WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6-8 KTS AREAWIDE...WITH VFR EXPECTED
AS ANY CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000FT. AS THE FRONT SAGS
FURTHER S LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SHRA EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER C LA...THUS PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT AEX.
FURTHER S...PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE ACROSS SE TX/S
LA...WITH IFR/LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS LOOKING LIKELY.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SERN
CONUS COAST RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...MAINTAINING
A LIGHT SRLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A
COLD FRONT IS NOTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE
MS VALLEY TO N-CNTL/WRN TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TRAILING TROF AXIS NOTED THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES DOWN INTO TX. LOCALLY SFC OBS ARE SHOWING NOT AS
MUCH FOG AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH WHERE IT HAS DEVELOPED
THE VISIBILITIES ARE RUNNING MUCH LOWER ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING STILL HOLDING TRUE IN MOST INSTANCES. THE NRN
CONUS STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD WHICH IN TURN
WILL PULL THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AS OF NOW THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT IS
PROGGED TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN BY THE AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS PARALLELLING THE FLOW ALOFT...
KEEPING THE FRONT/CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO
THE NRN ZONES...THUS POPS ARE CAPPED AT A SLIM 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL NOT
EXPECTED TO RUN THAT HIGH AS STATED PREVIOUSLY. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWD INTO THE GULF AND/OR COME TO
AN END THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SWD AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS ENCROACHING THE REGION IN CONCERT WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AS RIDGING ALOFT/SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKE HOLD...THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR LATE WEEK AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MAX TEMPS PROJECTED IN THE 70S
EACH AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. IN FACT SOME COOL SPOTS IN THE NERN
ZONES MAY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AS GOOD CAA
ENVELOPS THE AREA.

POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST JUST BEYOND THE TIME SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT CROSSING THE
COUNTRY PULLS COPIOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE NWD...COURTESY OF THE NEXT
EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND DRAGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT WITH THE
TIMING OF ALL THIS...AND SHOULD THE QUICKER GFS VERIFY POPS WILL
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A DAY OR SO WITH LATTER FORECASTS.

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY CREEPS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
INCREASING TO POSSIBLY CAUTION CRITERIA BY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT BULLS ITS WAY INTO THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  84  64  82  59 /  20  10  30  20
KBPT  82  64  83  61 /  20  10  30  20
KAEX  84  63  77  54 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  84  64  82  59 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 281507
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1007 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWING A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR GULF
WATERS...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS ALIGNED
WELL WITH 1000-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS PER RUC13. WITH
GRADIENT/WINDS WEAKENING...CONVERGENCE WILL RELAX AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS SHOULD END. WILL ALLOW DRY AFTERNOON FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
NO UPDATE COMING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR VSBY THRU 14Z FOR LA SITES. RADAR SHOWING
LIGHT STREAMER SHRA OVER SE TX...WITH -SHRA NOTED AT BPT. WITH THE
WINDS REMAINING ABOVE 5 KTS AND CEILINGS FLIRTING WITH MVFR...DON`T
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH VSBY THIS MORNING. AFTER
14Z...S WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6-8 KTS AREAWIDE...WITH VFR EXPECTED
AS ANY CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000FT. AS THE FRONT SAGS
FURTHER S LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SHRA EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER C LA...THUS PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT AEX.
FURTHER S...PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE ACROSS SE TX/S
LA...WITH IFR/LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS LOOKING LIKELY.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SERN
CONUS COAST RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...MAINTAINING
A LIGHT SRLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A
COLD FRONT IS NOTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE
MS VALLEY TO N-CNTL/WRN TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TRAILING TROF AXIS NOTED THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES DOWN INTO TX. LOCALLY SFC OBS ARE SHOWING NOT AS
MUCH FOG AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH WHERE IT HAS DEVELOPED
THE VISIBILITIES ARE RUNNING MUCH LOWER ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING STILL HOLDING TRUE IN MOST INSTANCES. THE NRN
CONUS STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD WHICH IN TURN
WILL PULL THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AS OF NOW THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT IS
PROGGED TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN BY THE AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS PARALLELLING THE FLOW ALOFT...
KEEPING THE FRONT/CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO
THE NRN ZONES...THUS POPS ARE CAPPED AT A SLIM 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL NOT
EXPECTED TO RUN THAT HIGH AS STATED PREVIOUSLY. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWD INTO THE GULF AND/OR COME TO
AN END THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SWD AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS ENCROACHING THE REGION IN CONCERT WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AS RIDGING ALOFT/SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKE HOLD...THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR LATE WEEK AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MAX TEMPS PROJECTED IN THE 70S
EACH AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. IN FACT SOME COOL SPOTS IN THE NERN
ZONES MAY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AS GOOD CAA
ENVELOPS THE AREA.

POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST JUST BEYOND THE TIME SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT CROSSING THE
COUNTRY PULLS COPIOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE NWD...COURTESY OF THE NEXT
EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND DRAGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT WITH THE
TIMING OF ALL THIS...AND SHOULD THE QUICKER GFS VERIFY POPS WILL
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A DAY OR SO WITH LATTER FORECASTS.

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY CREEPS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
INCREASING TO POSSIBLY CAUTION CRITERIA BY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT BULLS ITS WAY INTO THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  84  64  82  59  78 /  20  10  30  20  10
KBPT  82  64  83  61  79 /  20  10  30  20  10
KAEX  84  63  77  54  76 /  20  20  30  20  10
KLFT  84  64  82  59  78 /  10  10  30  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 281016
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
516 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR VSBY THRU 14Z FOR LA SITES. RADAR SHOWING
LIGHT STREAMER SHRA OVER SE TX...WITH -SHRA NOTED AT BPT. WITH THE
WINDS REMAINING ABOVE 5 KTS AND CEILINGS FLIRTING WITH MVFR...DON`T
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH VSBY THIS MORNING. AFTER
14Z...S WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6-8 KTS AREAWIDE...WITH VFR EXPECTED
AS ANY CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000FT. AS THE FRONT SAGS
FURTHER S LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SHRA EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER C LA...THUS PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS AT AEX.
FURTHER S...PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE ACROSS SE TX/S
LA...WITH IFR/LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS LOOKING LIKELY.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SERN
CONUS COAST RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...MAINTAINING
A LIGHT SRLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A
COLD FRONT IS NOTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE
MS VALLEY TO N-CNTL/WRN TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TRAILING TROF AXIS NOTED THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES DOWN INTO TX. LOCALLY SFC OBS ARE SHOWING NOT AS
MUCH FOG AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH WHERE IT HAS DEVELOPED
THE VISIBILITIES ARE RUNNING MUCH LOWER ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING STILL HOLDING TRUE IN MOST INSTANCES. THE NRN
CONUS STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD WHICH IN TURN
WILL PULL THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AS OF NOW THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT IS
PROGGED TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN BY THE AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS PARALLELLING THE FLOW ALOFT...
KEEPING THE FRONT/CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO
THE NRN ZONES...THUS POPS ARE CAPPED AT A SLIM 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL NOT
EXPECTED TO RUN THAT HIGH AS STATED PREVIOUSLY. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWD INTO THE GULF AND/OR COME TO
AN END THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SWD AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS ENCROACHING THE REGION IN CONCERT WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AS RIDGING ALOFT/SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKE HOLD...THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR LATE WEEK AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MAX TEMPS PROJECTED IN THE 70S
EACH AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. IN FACT SOME COOL SPOTS IN THE NERN
ZONES MAY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AS GOOD CAA
ENVELOPS THE AREA.

POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST JUST BEYOND THE TIME SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT CROSSING THE
COUNTRY PULLS COPIOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE NWD...COURTESY OF THE NEXT
EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND DRAGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT WITH THE
TIMING OF ALL THIS...AND SHOULD THE QUICKER GFS VERIFY POPS WILL
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A DAY OR SO WITH LATTER FORECASTS.

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY CREEPS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
INCREASING TO POSSIBLY CAUTION CRITERIA BY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT BULLS ITS WAY INTO THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  82  59  78  55 /  10  30  20  10   0
KBPT  64  83  61  79  58 /  10  30  20  10   0
KAEX  63  77  54  76  50 /  20  30  20  10   0
KLFT  64  82  59  78  53 /  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 280900
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SERN
CONUS COAST RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...MAINTAINING
A LIGHT SRLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE A
COLD FRONT IS NOTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE
MS VALLEY TO N-CNTL/WRN TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW
CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS WITH A TRAILING TROF AXIS NOTED THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES DOWN INTO TX. LOCALLY SFC OBS ARE SHOWING NOT AS
MUCH FOG AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...ALTHOUGH WHERE IT HAS DEVELOPED
THE VISIBILITIES ARE RUNNING MUCH LOWER ATTM.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING STILL HOLDING TRUE IN MOST INSTANCES. THE NRN
CONUS STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD WHICH IN TURN
WILL PULL THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. AS OF NOW THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT IS
PROGGED TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN BY THE AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS PARALLELLING THE FLOW ALOFT...
KEEPING THE FRONT/CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS INTO
THE NRN ZONES...THUS POPS ARE CAPPED AT A SLIM 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL NOT
EXPECTED TO RUN THAT HIGH AS STATED PREVIOUSLY. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
WHICH DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SWD INTO THE GULF AND/OR COME TO
AN END THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS FARTHER SWD AND
DRIER AIR BEGINS ENCROACHING THE REGION IN CONCERT WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

AS RIDGING ALOFT/SFC HIGH PRESSURE TAKE HOLD...THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY FOR LATE WEEK AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE COOLER
TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MAX TEMPS PROJECTED IN THE 70S
EACH AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. IN FACT SOME COOL SPOTS IN THE NERN
ZONES MAY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S ON SATURDAY AS GOOD CAA
ENVELOPS THE AREA.

POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST JUST BEYOND THE TIME SCOPE OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT CROSSING THE
COUNTRY PULLS COPIOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE NWD...COURTESY OF THE NEXT
EPAC TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND DRAGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT WITH THE
TIMING OF ALL THIS...AND SHOULD THE QUICKER GFS VERIFY POPS WILL
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A DAY OR SO WITH LATTER FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY CREEPS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
INCREASING TO POSSIBLY CAUTION CRITERIA BY EARLY FRIDAY AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT BULLS ITS WAY INTO THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  84  64  82  59  78 /  10  10  30  20  10
KBPT  82  64  83  61  79 /  10  10  30  20  10
KAEX  84  63  77  54  76 /  10  20  30  20  10
KLFT  84  64  82  59  78 /  10  10  30  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KLCH 280219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
919 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IS LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON THE LATEST UPPER AIR
SOUNDING FROM KLCH WITH A MOIST PROFILE NOW UP TO ABOUT 5K FEET.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF A HUMID
NIGHT...FOR LATE OCTOBER ANYWAYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. WILL KEEP
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST AS WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY
LIGHTEN UP JUST ENOUGH AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A WIND
GRADIENT IN THE LOW LEVELS TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND JUST
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT WARMING
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. I BRING THIS UP SIMPLY BECAUSE THE REGION HAS BEEN
ABSENT OF ANY CLOUDS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AND WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF SIMILAR TEMPS BEFORE OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OVERALL THINKING IN GRIDS/FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE. NEXT AND BEST RAIN CHANCE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER WITH FEATURE AND CARRYING NO MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES THEN LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AIDED BY A REINFORCING SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR FRIDAY. STRONG
RETURN FLOW SETS UP EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY RECOVERING.

MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  83  65  81  59 /  10  10  10  30  20
KBPT  68  83  66  81  61 /  10  10  10  30  20
KAEX  63  82  63  77  54 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  67  84  65  81  59 /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 272039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT WARMING
HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. I BRING THIS UP SIMPLY BECAUSE THE REGION HAS BEEN
ABSENT OF ANY CLOUDS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES HAVE AGAIN RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AND WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF SIMILAR TEMPS BEFORE OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OVERALL THINKING IN GRIDS/FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE. NEXT AND BEST RAIN CHANCE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE HOWEVER
CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER WITH FEATURE AND CARRYING NO MORE THAN
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES THEN LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AIDED BY A REINFORCING SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR FRIDAY. STRONG
RETURN FLOW SETS UP EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RAPIDLY RECOVERING.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF
WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  83  65  81  59 /  10  10  10  30  20
KBPT  69  83  66  81  61 /  10  10  10  30  20
KAEX  64  82  63  77  54 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  66  84  65  81  59 /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE







000
FXUS64 KLCH 271825
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
125 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER
CU GENERALLY AOA 3.5K FT AND AT TIMES GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WITH
WINDS ALSO SETTLING DOWN AROUND THAT TIME. VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA
TERMINALS. LOW STRATUS MAY PROVE THE GREATER RISK ACROSS SE TX
INTO SW AND CENTRAL LA WHERE BL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

UPDATE...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD WITH A RETURN OF A
DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
TREND HIGHER AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMS.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR AN UPDATE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR VSBY/CEILING DUE TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER SC LA AFFECTING LFT/ARA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. PREVAILED THE LIFR VSBY/CEILING...SHOWING IMPROVEMENT
FROM 12-13Z THIS MORNING. FOR AEX...ONLY EXPECTING MVFR/IFR VSBY
WITH PATCHY FOG EXPECTED. FURTHER W FOR BPT/LCH...RETURN FLOW ALREADY
ESTABLISHED...WITH FOG THREAT DIMINISHED DUE TO THE SE WINDS NOW
AT BPT...AND EXPECTED SHORTLY AT LCH. SE WINDS 6-8 KTS EXPECTED
AFTER 14Z...BECOMING S AND INCREASING TO 9-11 KTS AFTER 18Z AS THE
RETURN FLOW BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NERN
GULF/FL PANHANDLE RIDGING WWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED WELL TO OUR NORTH STRETCHING FROM THE
CNTL PLAINS TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE GULF COAST ALTHOUGH A STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM IS NOTED CROSSING THE NRN TIER OF STATES WHICH IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND PUSH THE RIDGE EWD. YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING/CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG...
OCCASIONALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN 1/2 OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EWD TODAY...WHILE THE STORM
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE PLAINS. COMBO OF
THESE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY INCREASING SRLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THIS ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO BUILD...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPS...ALTHOUGH DRY MID/
UPPER-LEVELS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO BASICALLY NIL INTO TONIGHT.

BY TOMORROW THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA ATTM. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE BEGINNINGS OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
SUPPORT BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE FRONT GETS HUNG UP IN A MORE WRLY FLOW BEHIND
THE TROF AND ONLY SAGS SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH MID-
WEEK...THUS POPS REMAIN LIMITED DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. POPS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT AND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY
SFC COLD FRONT.

REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING ALOFT/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE WRN GULF REGION.

MARINE...
AS STATED BEFORE SRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY WITH A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS FOR NOW ARE PROJECTED TO
STAY BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LINGER INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY CREEPS INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...INCREASING TO POSSIBLY CAUTION CRITERIA BY EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE SECONDARY FRONT BULLS ITS WAY INTO THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  84  67  84  65  82 /   0  10  20  20  20
KBPT  85  69  84  65  83 /  10  10  20  20  20
KAEX  84  65  83  64  78 /   0  10  20  20  30
KLFT  85  66  84  64  83 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









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