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000
FXUS64 KLCH 220816
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
316 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE
U.S. AND N GULF KEEPING A S FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR NOT
SHOWING ANY SHRA YET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SHOWING NOCTURNAL
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS S LA TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION...BUT WITH JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALOFT...COUPLED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S...ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS C AND SC LA ALONG AND N OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT STILL EXPECTING TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE A BIT MORE...EXPECTING
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 100
DEGREES ACROSS C LA BY SUN. WHILE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...HAVE OPTED TO PLACE AT LEAST ISO SHRA/TSRA OVER C AND SC
LA...AS THESE TEMPS AND PAST HISTORY THIS WEEK HAS PROVEN THAT
CONVECTION IS INDEED POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE
AGAIN BEGINNING MON. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
BE TUE AS THE AXIS OF MOISTURE/LIFT MOVES OVER THE REGION.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INHIBITS MOST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTED INCREASED CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY MON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  77  94  76  95 /  30  20  20  10  20
KBPT  93  77  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  97  74  98  75  99 /  30  20  20  10  20
KLFT  94  76  96  76  97 /  30  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING`S NAM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COASTAL FRONT RE-FORMING OVER
THE COASTAL MARSHES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE AFTERNOON GFS SOLUTION DEPICTS PVA LIFT MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL MARSHES TONIGHT.

WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL BE GONE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN AGAIN TO A PORTION OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AS
DIURNAL HEATING WANES.

STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH
LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90`S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON
WHICH...WHILE BRUTAL...FALLS BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
108.

THE FEVER BREAKS BY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WEAKENING THE
RIDGE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST WHILE SUPPRESSING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  93  76  93  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  77  94  77  94  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  73  96  74  96  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
KLFT  75  94  76  95  76 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 220214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING`S NAM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COASTAL FRONT RE-FORMING OVER
THE COASTAL MARSHES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE AFTERNOON GFS SOLUTION DEPICTS PVA LIFT MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL MARSHES TONIGHT.

WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL BE GONE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN AGAIN TO A PORTION OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AS
DIURNAL HEATING WANES.

STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH
LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90`S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON
WHICH...WHILE BRUTAL...FALLS BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
108.

THE FEVER BREAKS BY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WEAKENING THE
RIDGE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST WHILE SUPPRESSING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  93  76  93  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  77  94  77  94  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  73  96  74  96  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
KLFT  75  94  76  95  76 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 220036
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
736 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL BE GONE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN AGAIN TO A PORTION OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AS
DIURNAL HEATING WANES.

STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH
LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90`S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON
WHICH...WHILE BRUTAL...FALLS BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
108.

THE FEVER BREAKS BY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WEAKENING THE
RIDGE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST WHILE SUPPRESSING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  74  96  74  96  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  94  76  95  76 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220036
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
736 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL BE GONE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN AGAIN TO A PORTION OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AS
DIURNAL HEATING WANES.

STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH
LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90`S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON
WHICH...WHILE BRUTAL...FALLS BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
108.

THE FEVER BREAKS BY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WEAKENING THE
RIDGE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST WHILE SUPPRESSING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  74  96  74  96  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  94  76  95  76 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 212048
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AS
DIURNAL HEATING WANES.

STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH
LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90`S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON
WHICH...WHILE BRUTAL...FALLS BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
108.

THE FEVER BREAKS BY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WEAKENING THE
RIDGE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST WHILE SUPPRESSING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  93  76  93  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  78  94  77  94  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  74  96  74  96  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
KLFT  77  94  76  95  76 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

66






000
FXUS64 KLCH 211750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ARA AS
SEVERAL TSTMS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE WITHIN 5 NM. TEMPO IFR TSTMS FOR ARA AND LFT AS RAINFALL RATES
WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED AIRMASS TSTMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE AEX VCNTY. BPT AND LCH ARE SOUTH OF THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY AND LOOKS TO BE FREE AND CLEAR ON TSTMS...VFR. COULD BE
MVFR IN LIGHT FOG TNITE INITALLY AT AEX AND LATER AT LCH. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE FOR MENTION OF ANY TSTMS ON FRIDAY DUE TO RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING NOCTURNAL SHRA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS S LA TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

SEEM TO BE STUCK IN A PATTERN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO GENERATE ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA...DESPITE BEING
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THUS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR POPS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON HEATING MAXIMUM...WHICH SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THIS REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET.

STILL EXPECTING PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THUS...DIDN`T MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IF ANY TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THUS...MINIMAL PRECI CHANCES FRI-SUN...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH
MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF I-10.

INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE
AGAIN MON-WED...THUS DIDN`T MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
GOING 20% MON & 30% TUE-WED.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES
FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INHIBITS MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  78  94  76  94 /  50  10  20  10  10
KBPT  93  78  94  77  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
KAEX  96  75  97  74  97 /  30  10  20  10  10
KLFT  94  76  95  76  95 /  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 210800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING NOCTURNAL SHRA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS S LA TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

SEEM TO BE STUCK IN A PATTERN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO GENERATE ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA...DESPITE BEING
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THUS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR POPS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON HEATING MAXIMUM...WHICH SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THIS REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET.

STILL EXPECTING PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THUS...DIDN`T MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IF ANY TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THUS...MINIMAL PRECI CHANCES FRI-SUN...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH
MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF I-10.

INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE
AGAIN MON-WED...THUS DIDN`T MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
GOING 20% MON & 30% TUE-WED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES
FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INHIBITS MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  78  94  76  94 /  30  10  20  10  10
KBPT  93  78  94  77  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
KAEX  96  75  97  74  97 /  30  10  20  10  10
KLFT  94  76  95  76  95 /  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 210541
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1241 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHWARD... ALSO SEVERAL SITES
NOTING CLOUDS AROUND 025 OTHERWISE VFR WX TO HOLD THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND KAEX TOWARD SUNRISE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID DAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  77  94  76  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  93  77  94  77  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
KAEX  95  75  96  74  96 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  93  76  94  76  94 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 210541
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1241 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHWARD... ALSO SEVERAL SITES
NOTING CLOUDS AROUND 025 OTHERWISE VFR WX TO HOLD THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND KAEX TOWARD SUNRISE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID DAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  77  94  76  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  93  77  94  77  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
KAEX  95  75  96  74  96 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  93  76  94  76  94 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 210446
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND KAEX TOWARD SUNRISE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID DAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  76  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 210446
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND KAEX TOWARD SUNRISE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID DAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  76  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 202347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014



.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 202347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014



.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 202013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  94  77  94  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  30  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 202013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  94  77  94  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  30  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 201752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST
INCLUDING BPT. SUFFICIENT CAPES AND PRECIP WATER FOR TEMPO IFR VIS
MVFR CIGS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT BPT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER AT
BPT AS WELL SO WENT WITH MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE CHOSE TO GO WITH VCTS AS COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS
SCATTERED. DELAYED VCTS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT AEX BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AEX LATE TNITE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 201752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST
INCLUDING BPT. SUFFICIENT CAPES AND PRECIP WATER FOR TEMPO IFR VIS
MVFR CIGS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT BPT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER AT
BPT AS WELL SO WENT WITH MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE CHOSE TO GO WITH VCTS AS COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS
SCATTERED. DELAYED VCTS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT AEX BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AEX LATE TNITE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 201620
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 201620
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 200904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 200904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 200246
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FAIRLY DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACRS THE AREA THIS
AFTN...INCLUDING SOME STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT TRAINED ACRS THE
LAKE CHARLES AREA. THESE STORMS DROPPED A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT STREET
FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH LITTLE...IF
ANY...PRECIP CURRENTLY NOTED ON KLCH 88D. THE SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTN...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BRING
IN LINE WITH RECENT OBS AND LIKEWISE TWEAK LOWS SLIGHTLY AS TEMPS
DID NOT RECOVER MUCH AFTER AFTN CONVECTION DISSIPATED. ALSO MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX...AND UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE
EVENING POP WORDING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

23/MS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
KBPT  78  92  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
KAEX  74  95  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
KLFT  74  93  77  93 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 200246
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FAIRLY DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACRS THE AREA THIS
AFTN...INCLUDING SOME STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT TRAINED ACRS THE
LAKE CHARLES AREA. THESE STORMS DROPPED A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT STREET
FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH LITTLE...IF
ANY...PRECIP CURRENTLY NOTED ON KLCH 88D. THE SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTN...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BRING
IN LINE WITH RECENT OBS AND LIKEWISE TWEAK LOWS SLIGHTLY AS TEMPS
DID NOT RECOVER MUCH AFTER AFTN CONVECTION DISSIPATED. ALSO MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX...AND UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE
EVENING POP WORDING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

23/MS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
KBPT  78  92  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
KAEX  74  95  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
KLFT  74  93  77  93 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 192348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KLCH 192348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 192035
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

STACKHOUSE/MARCOTTE






000
FXUS64 KLCH 192035
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

STACKHOUSE/MARCOTTE







000
FXUS64 KLCH 191728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A PREVAILING VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IFR VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS/AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM ADVANCES OVER A
TAF SITES. STORM MOTION TODAY LOOKS TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 20/00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KLCH OVERNIGHT AND
AROUND DAYBREAK...AS SMOKE FROM MARSH FIRE IN CAMERON PARISH
SETTLES AND MIXES INTO THE FOG/HAZE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 191728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A PREVAILING VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IFR VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS/AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM ADVANCES OVER A
TAF SITES. STORM MOTION TODAY LOOKS TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 20/00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KLCH OVERNIGHT AND
AROUND DAYBREAK...AS SMOKE FROM MARSH FIRE IN CAMERON PARISH
SETTLES AND MIXES INTO THE FOG/HAZE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 191609
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGGINING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 191609
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGGINING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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