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000
FXUS64 KLCH 020442
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
WITH VCSH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT KLFT AND KARA AFTER 02/08Z
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG MIXING IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. ALSO...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AT KAEX DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANYTIME DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  92  72  94 /  40  50  20  30
LCH  72  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  40
LFT  74  90  73  92 /  20  50  20  30
BPT  73  86  76  88 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 020442
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
WITH VCSH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT KLFT AND KARA AFTER 02/08Z
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG MIXING IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. ALSO...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AT KAEX DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANYTIME DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  92  72  94 /  40  50  20  30
LCH  72  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  40
LFT  74  90  73  92 /  20  50  20  30
BPT  73  86  76  88 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 020442
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
WITH VCSH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT KLFT AND KARA AFTER 02/08Z
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG MIXING IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. ALSO...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AT KAEX DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANYTIME DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  92  72  94 /  40  50  20  30
LCH  72  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  40
LFT  74  90  73  92 /  20  50  20  30
BPT  73  86  76  88 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 020442
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
WITH VCSH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT KLFT AND KARA AFTER 02/08Z
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG MIXING IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. ALSO...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AT KAEX DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANYTIME DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  92  72  94 /  40  50  20  30
LCH  72  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  40
LFT  74  90  73  92 /  20  50  20  30
BPT  73  86  76  88 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 012323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...EXPECTED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PUSH INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION VCSH AT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 02/10Z TO COVER THIS. MORE CONVECTION
WILL THEN DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INLAND BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
LCH  76  88  74  87 /  50  60  20  40
LFT  75  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  30
BPT  76  82  76  85 /  50  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 012323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...EXPECTED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PUSH INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION VCSH AT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 02/10Z TO COVER THIS. MORE CONVECTION
WILL THEN DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INLAND BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
LCH  76  88  74  87 /  50  60  20  40
LFT  75  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  30
BPT  76  82  76  85 /  50  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 012049
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

.LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
LCH  76  88  74  87 /  50  60  20  40
LFT  75  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  30
BPT  76  82  76  85 /  50  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 011545
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011545
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 011126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  30
LCH  74  90  73  90 /  30  50  30  30
LFT  74  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  30
BPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 011126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  30
LCH  74  90  73  90 /  30  50  30  30
LFT  74  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  30
BPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  30
LCH  74  90  73  90 /  30  50  30  30
LFT  74  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  30
BPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010839
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  72  94  71 /  30  30  20  20
LCH  87  74  90  73 /  70  30  50  30
LFT  91  74  92  73 /  30  20  30  30
BPT  86  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010839
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  72  94  71 /  30  30  20  20
LCH  87  74  90  73 /  70  30  50  30
LFT  91  74  92  73 /  30  20  30  30
BPT  86  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 010435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST...AND A MOIST AIR MASS...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE INTO THE TAF
SITES AT KBPT/KLCH. AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 01/10Z
TO 01/14Z. DURING TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL THEN DECREASE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MORE RAIN AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS JUST
TO THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  94  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  74  88  73  91 /  30  40  30  30
LFT  74  92  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  74  87  74  89 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 010435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST...AND A MOIST AIR MASS...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE INTO THE TAF
SITES AT KBPT/KLCH. AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 01/10Z
TO 01/14Z. DURING TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL THEN DECREASE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MORE RAIN AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS JUST
TO THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  94  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  74  88  73  91 /  30  40  30  30
LFT  74  92  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  74  87  74  89 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST...AND A MOIST AIR MASS...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE INTO THE TAF
SITES AT KBPT/KLCH. AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 01/10Z
TO 01/14Z. DURING TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL THEN DECREASE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MORE RAIN AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS JUST
TO THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  94  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  74  88  73  91 /  30  40  30  30
LFT  74  92  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  74  87  74  89 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 010435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PACKAGE. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST...AND A MOIST AIR MASS...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE INTO THE TAF
SITES AT KBPT/KLCH. AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS...THERE WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 01/10Z
TO 01/14Z. DURING TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL THEN DECREASE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MORE RAIN AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS JUST
TO THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  94  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  74  88  73  91 /  30  40  30  30
LFT  74  92  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  74  87  74  89 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010229
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
929 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MORE RAIN AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS JUST
TO THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS DECREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM ROUGHLY 01/10Z TO 01/14Z. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EAST TEXAS...AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE NEAR THE
KBPT/KLCH TAF SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINING
TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  94  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  74  88  73  91 /  30  40  30  30
LFT  74  92  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  74  87  74  89 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 010229
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
929 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND MORE RAIN AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS JUST
TO THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUE. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS DECREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM ROUGHLY 01/10Z TO 01/14Z. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EAST TEXAS...AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE NEAR THE
KBPT/KLCH TAF SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINING
TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  94  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  74  88  73  91 /  30  40  30  30
LFT  74  92  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  74  87  74  89 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 312326
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS DECREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM ROUGHLY 01/10Z TO 01/14Z. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EAST TEXAS...AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE NEAR THE
KBPT/KLCH TAF SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINING
TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  90  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  75  86  73  91 /  40  40  40  30
LFT  72  89  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  77  89  74  89 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 312326
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS DECREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM ROUGHLY 01/10Z TO 01/14Z. ALSO...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EAST TEXAS...AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE NEAR THE
KBPT/KLCH TAF SITES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINING
TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  90  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  75  86  73  91 /  40  40  40  30
LFT  72  89  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  77  89  74  89 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 312113
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

&&

.LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  90  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  75  86  73  91 /  40  40  40  30
LFT  72  89  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  77  89  74  89 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 312113
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PROVIDE A WARMING TREND AND SOMEWHAT LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
THETA RIDGING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE HIGH RES REFRESH
MODEL. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON TEMPS
AND WENT ABOVE TO THE SOUTH WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
HIGHER THAN PROGGED.

&&

.LONG RANGE...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  90  71  93 /  10  40  30  30
LCH  75  86  73  91 /  40  40  40  30
LFT  72  89  72  90 /  20  40  20  20
BPT  77  89  74  89 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 311745
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE...BOTH DEALING
WITH CONVECTION. LOCAL 88DS CURRENTLY SHOW NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
PERHAPS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/SPEEDMAX ALOFT AFFECTING LOWER
ACADIANA AND THE ADJACENT BAYS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
LINGER...IF NOT SLIGHTLY INCREASE...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE TX COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE DEEP TROF
OVER SRN PLAINS/ERN TX/NRN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE
KBPT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
WITH MAYBE A SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING KLCH THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LESS MOISTURE UP NORTH SO KAEX
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE AS OF NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
ROUND THE TROF AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND PROB30S
HAVE BEEN INSERTED TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS HAS
ALREADY BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF AND WILL BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. TWEAKED UP THE PRECIP CHANCE FOR
LOWER SE TX AND EDGED LOWER THE CHANCES TO THE EAST ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. ALSO ADDED MORNING POPS FOR THE COASTAL MARSHES
AROUND VERMILION BAY. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  89  74  89  73 /  20  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 311745
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE...BOTH DEALING
WITH CONVECTION. LOCAL 88DS CURRENTLY SHOW NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
PERHAPS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/SPEEDMAX ALOFT AFFECTING LOWER
ACADIANA AND THE ADJACENT BAYS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
LINGER...IF NOT SLIGHTLY INCREASE...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE TX COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE DEEP TROF
OVER SRN PLAINS/ERN TX/NRN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE
KBPT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
WITH MAYBE A SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING KLCH THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LESS MOISTURE UP NORTH SO KAEX
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE AS OF NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
ROUND THE TROF AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND PROB30S
HAVE BEEN INSERTED TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS HAS
ALREADY BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF AND WILL BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. TWEAKED UP THE PRECIP CHANCE FOR
LOWER SE TX AND EDGED LOWER THE CHANCES TO THE EAST ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. ALSO ADDED MORNING POPS FOR THE COASTAL MARSHES
AROUND VERMILION BAY. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  89  74  89  73 /  20  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 311745
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE...BOTH DEALING
WITH CONVECTION. LOCAL 88DS CURRENTLY SHOW NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
PERHAPS A WEAK DISTURBANCE/SPEEDMAX ALOFT AFFECTING LOWER
ACADIANA AND THE ADJACENT BAYS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
LINGER...IF NOT SLIGHTLY INCREASE...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG
THE TX COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE DEEP TROF
OVER SRN PLAINS/ERN TX/NRN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE
KBPT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
WITH MAYBE A SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING KLCH THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW LESS MOISTURE UP NORTH SO KAEX
SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE AS OF NOW. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
ROUND THE TROF AND MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND PROB30S
HAVE BEEN INSERTED TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS HAS
ALREADY BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF AND WILL BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. TWEAKED UP THE PRECIP CHANCE FOR
LOWER SE TX AND EDGED LOWER THE CHANCES TO THE EAST ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. ALSO ADDED MORNING POPS FOR THE COASTAL MARSHES
AROUND VERMILION BAY. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  89  74  89  73 /  20  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 311550
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS HAS
ALREADY BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF AND WILL BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. TWEAKED UP THE PRECIP CHANCE FOR
LOWER SE TX AND EDGED LOWER THE CHANCES TO THE EAST ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. ALSO ADDED MORNING POPS FOR THE COASTAL MARSHES
AROUND VERMILION BAY. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  89  74  89  73 /  20  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 311550
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS HAS
ALREADY BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF AND WILL BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. TWEAKED UP THE PRECIP CHANCE FOR
LOWER SE TX AND EDGED LOWER THE CHANCES TO THE EAST ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. ALSO ADDED MORNING POPS FOR THE COASTAL MARSHES
AROUND VERMILION BAY. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  89  74  89  73 /  20  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 311550
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST TEXAS HAS
ALREADY BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF AND WILL BE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. TWEAKED UP THE PRECIP CHANCE FOR
LOWER SE TX AND EDGED LOWER THE CHANCES TO THE EAST ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. ALSO ADDED MORNING POPS FOR THE COASTAL MARSHES
AROUND VERMILION BAY. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  89  74  89  73 /  20  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 311153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  90  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  20
BPT  90  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 311153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  90  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  20
BPT  90  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 311153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  90  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  20
BPT  90  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 311153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TAF ISSUANCE FOR 31/12Z.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR RULES WILL APPLY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY EXCEPT FOR AEX/ARA TAF SITES WHERE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
PREVAILS. PATCHY FOG WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. LEFT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIT AND MISS ACROSS
REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  90  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LFT  91  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  20
BPT  90  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 310948
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  89  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LFT  90  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  20
BPT  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER




000
FXUS64 KLCH 310948
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
448 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE GULF SOUTH OF VERMILION
BAY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO SPILL BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE USUAL 30 YEAR CLIMO
RANGE OF 90 DEGREES MORE OR LESS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FOCUS DOWN ALONG THE COAST AND AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-10
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL DRAW TO A CLOSE AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS ALSO
TYPICAL FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER AS DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 70S... SO THE MID 60S FOR MORNING LOWS LOOK TO BE IN
THE PAST AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK.

AFTERNOON RAINS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND GULF MOISTURE THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN OF AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINS ARE ALWAYS HELPFUL
IN SUPPLYING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE SOIL AS DAILY LOSSES OF
SOIL MOISTURE IS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND THAT ADDS UP
FAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  89  74  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
LFT  90  73  92  74 /  30  10  20  20
BPT  89  74  89  74 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 310245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING
HAVE DISSIPATED. WHILE 00Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD DRY AIR
LAYER...LATEST HRRR IS STILL HINTING AT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

WILL TWEAK TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 310245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...THE FEW SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING
HAVE DISSIPATED. WHILE 00Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD DRY AIR
LAYER...LATEST HRRR IS STILL HINTING AT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE COAST AND NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

WILL TWEAK TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 302307
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
607 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CULMINATES IN
AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SRN TX. INVERTED LOW-MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS COASTLINES. SFC PATTERN REMAINS NON-DESCRIPT...WITH THE NW
GULF COAST REGION ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MSTR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SFC AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALOFT ON WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER...WITH CHAOTIC AND AT TIMES NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED TROF. THAT IS FCST TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE
INVERTED TROF PUSHES INLAND LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A MORE
PREVALENT ONSHORE FETCH. GFS PROGGED PWATS CLIMB TO A NEAR CLIMO
1.8 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT CONVECTION
OF GREATER COVERAGE/DEPTH TO OCCUR INLAND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS PWATS
CLIMB A LITTLE MORE AND THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO ERN TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA WED AND THU...BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SHEARING APART...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DISTINCT
AND ROBUST LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST
TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 302307
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
607 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY BR MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CULMINATES IN
AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SRN TX. INVERTED LOW-MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS COASTLINES. SFC PATTERN REMAINS NON-DESCRIPT...WITH THE NW
GULF COAST REGION ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MSTR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SFC AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALOFT ON WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER...WITH CHAOTIC AND AT TIMES NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED TROF. THAT IS FCST TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE
INVERTED TROF PUSHES INLAND LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A MORE
PREVALENT ONSHORE FETCH. GFS PROGGED PWATS CLIMB TO A NEAR CLIMO
1.8 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT CONVECTION
OF GREATER COVERAGE/DEPTH TO OCCUR INLAND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS PWATS
CLIMB A LITTLE MORE AND THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO ERN TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA WED AND THU...BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SHEARING APART...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DISTINCT
AND ROBUST LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST
TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 302104
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CULMINATES IN
AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SRN TX. INVERTED LOW-MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS COASTLINES. SFC PATTERN REMAINS NON-DESCRIPT...WITH THE NW
GULF COAST REGION ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MSTR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SFC AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALOFT ON WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER...WITH CHAOTIC AND AT TIMES NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED TROF. THAT IS FCST TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE
INVERTED TROF PUSHES INLAND LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A MORE
PREVALENT ONSHORE FETCH. GFS PROGGED PWATS CLIMB TO A NEAR CLIMO
1.8 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT CONVECTION
OF GREATER COVERAGE/DEPTH TO OCCUR INLAND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS PWATS
CLIMB A LITTLE MORE AND THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO ERN TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA WED AND THU...BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SHEARING APART...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DISTINCT
AND ROBUST LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST
TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 302104
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING NE THROUGH THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPSTREAM
UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH CULMINATES IN
AND UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SRN TX. INVERTED LOW-MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS NOTED JUST OFFSHORE AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS COASTLINES. SFC PATTERN REMAINS NON-DESCRIPT...WITH THE NW
GULF COAST REGION ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

MSTR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AT THE SFC AMID LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND ALOFT ON WESTERLY FLOW AT H5 AND ABOVE AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING LOW OUT WEST. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
DRY...HOWEVER...WITH CHAOTIC AND AT TIMES NE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED TROF. THAT IS FCST TO CHANGE...HOWEVER...AS THE
INVERTED TROF PUSHES INLAND LATER TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A MORE
PREVALENT ONSHORE FETCH. GFS PROGGED PWATS CLIMB TO A NEAR CLIMO
1.8 INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT CONVECTION
OF GREATER COVERAGE/DEPTH TO OCCUR INLAND...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON TUE AS PWATS
CLIMB A LITTLE MORE AND THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO ERN TEXAS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA WED AND THU...BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND THIS POINT...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING UP AND SHEARING APART...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DISTINCT
AND ROBUST LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. BOTH SCENARIOS RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST
TEXAS AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  72  89  74  89 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  72  91  74  92 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  72  90  75  89 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...MDT CU EVIDENT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INTRUDE
ON WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CIG AT LFT TO PERSIST.
THIS FLOW WILL BRING TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATCHY FOG TO THE PRONE
AIRPORTS LATE TNITE...MVFR/TEMPO IFR LCH AND ARA. AN UPPER TROF
SETTING UP OVER EAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO DELIVER SOME SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE BPT TERMINAL
AROUND THIS TIME ON MONDAY...VCTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS ALONG A NE TO SW ORIENTED CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...AND INSISTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
QUITE SOLD ON THAT SCENARIO...SO ADDED SMALL POPS FOR THIS AREA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CENTRAL LA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION
TO A DENSER CU FIELD...SEEING SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING EAST
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF DIGGING INTO EAST TX.
ATMOSPHERE AS DEPICTED ON 12Z KLCH RAOB CONTINUES TO HAVE A
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 5-16K FT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301114
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301114
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301114
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301114
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF BR THRU SUNRISE OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY... AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS WEAK SFC HIGH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH WEAK RIDGING
SW ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK SE FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO SE TX. RETREATING NE OF THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SE TX. TEMPS A LITTLE
WARMER THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S...AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...LESS THAN 10%

THE WX PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LOWS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE
FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE TODAY...WITH ANOTHER SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER TX TODAY AND MON AND ONLY
DRIFT EAST THIS WEEK...BASICALLY PARKING OVER SE TX/LA THRU THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO INCREASING POPS
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH BETTER
CHANCES BEGINNING TUE-SAT. AT THIS TIME...DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ~30-40% EACH
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE MID 70S FOR LOWS...AND LOWER/MID 90S FOR
HIGHS...TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO EAST TEXAS AND MOVES
SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  73  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
LFT  91  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  90  74  90  75 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




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