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000
FXUS64 KLCH 051203
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
703 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
WATERS THIS AM. STORMS ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...
VFR WITH A FEW CU AROUND 025 TO 035.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN HOT AND DRY FOR OVER A MONTH WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS
AND ALMOST NO RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD... AND BECAUSE OF THIS
WE ARE BACK IN A DROUGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS IN SE TX AND SRN LA.
STRANGE... SINCE AT THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER WE STARTED OUT WITH
PLENTY OF WATER IN AREA PONDS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER RESULT HAS SEEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT FIVE
TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE 30 YEAR CLIMATE RANGE. RAINS AND CLOUDS ARE
THE BIG MECHANISM FOR MODERATING TEMPS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. THE
ISSUE HAS BEEN THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER TX/LA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OUR BIGGEST PROBLEM. UNTIL IT MIGRATES WE ARE ONLY LOOKING
AT A FEW AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE PERSISTENCE FORECAST... HOT AND DRY WITH A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE C-BRZ. THE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX TO CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND CLIMBING TO AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  76  97  76 /  20  20  20  10
LCH  94  78  94  78 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  94  77  95  77 /  40  40  20  10
BPT  95  77  96  77 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 051203
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
703 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
WATERS THIS AM. STORMS ARE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...
VFR WITH A FEW CU AROUND 025 TO 035.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN HOT AND DRY FOR OVER A MONTH WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS
AND ALMOST NO RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD... AND BECAUSE OF THIS
WE ARE BACK IN A DROUGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS IN SE TX AND SRN LA.
STRANGE... SINCE AT THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER WE STARTED OUT WITH
PLENTY OF WATER IN AREA PONDS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER RESULT HAS SEEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT FIVE
TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE 30 YEAR CLIMATE RANGE. RAINS AND CLOUDS ARE
THE BIG MECHANISM FOR MODERATING TEMPS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. THE
ISSUE HAS BEEN THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER TX/LA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OUR BIGGEST PROBLEM. UNTIL IT MIGRATES WE ARE ONLY LOOKING
AT A FEW AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE PERSISTENCE FORECAST... HOT AND DRY WITH A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE C-BRZ. THE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX TO CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND CLIMBING TO AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  76  97  76 /  20  20  20  10
LCH  94  78  94  78 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  94  77  95  77 /  40  40  20  10
BPT  95  77  96  77 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050914
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN HOT AND DRY FOR OVER A MONTH WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS
AND ALMOST NO RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD... AND BECAUSE OF THIS
WE ARE BACK IN A DROUGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS IN SE TX AND SRN LA.
STRANGE... SINCE AT THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER WE STARTED OUT WITH
PLENTY OF WATER IN AREA PONDS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER RESULT HAS SEEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT FIVE
TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE 30 YEAR CLIMATE RANGE. RAINS AND CLOUDS ARE
THE BIG MECHANISM FOR MODERATING TEMPS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. THE
ISSUE HAS BEEN THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER TX/LA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OUR BIGGEST PROBLEM. UNTIL IT MIGRATES WE ARE ONLY LOOKING
AT A FEW AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE PERSISTENCE FORECAST... HOT AND DRY WITH A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE C-BRZ. THE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX TO CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND CLIMBING TO AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  76  97  76 /  20  20  20  10
LCH  94  78  94  78 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  94  77  95  77 /  40  40  20  10
BPT  95  77  96  77 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050914
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN HOT AND DRY FOR OVER A MONTH WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS
AND ALMOST NO RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD... AND BECAUSE OF THIS
WE ARE BACK IN A DROUGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS IN SE TX AND SRN LA.
STRANGE... SINCE AT THE BEGINNING OF SUMMER WE STARTED OUT WITH
PLENTY OF WATER IN AREA PONDS AND STREAMS.

ANOTHER RESULT HAS SEEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT FIVE
TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE 30 YEAR CLIMATE RANGE. RAINS AND CLOUDS ARE
THE BIG MECHANISM FOR MODERATING TEMPS DURING THE SUMMERTIME. THE
ISSUE HAS BEEN THE RIDGE ALOFT OVER TX/LA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OUR BIGGEST PROBLEM. UNTIL IT MIGRATES WE ARE ONLY LOOKING
AT A FEW AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE PERSISTENCE FORECAST... HOT AND DRY WITH A FEW STORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE C-BRZ. THE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX TO CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND CLIMBING TO AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  76  97  76 /  20  20  20  10
LCH  94  78  94  78 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  94  77  95  77 /  40  40  20  10
BPT  95  77  96  77 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050424
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1124 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 05/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION AND CU FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAS DISSIPATED. WITH
STABILIZED CONDITIONS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...TAIL END OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND
DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED VCSH AT KLFT/KARA SITES DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS JUST
OUTSIDE OUR SE CWA BOUNDARY OVER TERREBONNE PARISH...AND WAS
KEEPING AN EYE ON ANY WWD DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND THINGS LOOK QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ACRS THE SRN
PARISHES/COUNTIES WITH UPPER 80S/NR 90 ACRS THE NORTH. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ON SLY LOW LVL WINDS WHILE THE KLCH
05/00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WITH PWAT BACK ABV 2 INCHES. A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF
CAMERON.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX OVERNIGHT WITH REMAINDER OF
FCST LOOKING FINE. ZONES UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS OVER
LOWER ACADIANA.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
INLAND AREA. LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTS NO NEED TO MENTION
ANY RAIN CHANCE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE/PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/MAV MOS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF MOS COMING IN WITH HIGHER
NUMBERS. AT HIS TIME MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE...BUT HIGHER IN THE ACADIANA AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK....MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.
ACCORDINGLY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
TRENDING MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  10
LCH  78  94  79  94 /  10  20  20  10
LFT  77  94  77  94 /  10  40  40  20
BPT  78  95  78  96 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050424
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1124 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 05/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION AND CU FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAS DISSIPATED. WITH
STABILIZED CONDITIONS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...TAIL END OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND
DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED VCSH AT KLFT/KARA SITES DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS JUST
OUTSIDE OUR SE CWA BOUNDARY OVER TERREBONNE PARISH...AND WAS
KEEPING AN EYE ON ANY WWD DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND THINGS LOOK QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ACRS THE SRN
PARISHES/COUNTIES WITH UPPER 80S/NR 90 ACRS THE NORTH. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ON SLY LOW LVL WINDS WHILE THE KLCH
05/00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WITH PWAT BACK ABV 2 INCHES. A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF
CAMERON.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX OVERNIGHT WITH REMAINDER OF
FCST LOOKING FINE. ZONES UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS OVER
LOWER ACADIANA.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
INLAND AREA. LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTS NO NEED TO MENTION
ANY RAIN CHANCE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE/PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/MAV MOS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF MOS COMING IN WITH HIGHER
NUMBERS. AT HIS TIME MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE...BUT HIGHER IN THE ACADIANA AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK....MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.
ACCORDINGLY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
TRENDING MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  10
LCH  78  94  79  94 /  10  20  20  10
LFT  77  94  77  94 /  10  40  40  20
BPT  78  95  78  96 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050424
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1124 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 05/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION AND CU FROM DAYTIME HEATING HAS DISSIPATED. WITH
STABILIZED CONDITIONS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...TAIL END OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND
DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED VCSH AT KLFT/KARA SITES DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS JUST
OUTSIDE OUR SE CWA BOUNDARY OVER TERREBONNE PARISH...AND WAS
KEEPING AN EYE ON ANY WWD DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND THINGS LOOK QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ACRS THE SRN
PARISHES/COUNTIES WITH UPPER 80S/NR 90 ACRS THE NORTH. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ON SLY LOW LVL WINDS WHILE THE KLCH
05/00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WITH PWAT BACK ABV 2 INCHES. A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF
CAMERON.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX OVERNIGHT WITH REMAINDER OF
FCST LOOKING FINE. ZONES UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS OVER
LOWER ACADIANA.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
INLAND AREA. LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTS NO NEED TO MENTION
ANY RAIN CHANCE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE/PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/MAV MOS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF MOS COMING IN WITH HIGHER
NUMBERS. AT HIS TIME MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE...BUT HIGHER IN THE ACADIANA AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK....MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.
ACCORDINGLY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
TRENDING MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  10
LCH  78  94  79  94 /  10  20  20  10
LFT  77  94  77  94 /  10  40  40  20
BPT  78  95  78  96 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050248
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
948 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS JUST
OUTSIDE OUR SE CWA BOUNDARY OVER TERREBONNE PARISH...AND WAS
KEEPING AN EYE ON ANY WWD DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND THINGS LOOK QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ACRS THE SRN
PARISHES/COUNTIES WITH UPPER 80S/NR 90 ACRS THE NORTH. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ON SLY LOW LVL WINDS WHILE THE KLCH
05/00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WITH PWAT BACK ABV 2 INCHES. A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF
CAMERON.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX OVERNIGHT WITH REMAINDER OF
FCST LOOKING FINE. ZONES UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS OVER
LOWER ACADIANA.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 05/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND BEEN
MAINLY UNEVENTFUL. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT AREA ON RADAR SHOULD MISS
ANY TAF SITE AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY. THEREFORE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW TO SCT CU UNTIL SUNSET...THEN CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED VCSH AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA SITES DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
INLAND AREA. LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTS NO NEED TO MENTION
ANY RAIN CHANCE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE/PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/MAV MOS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF MOS COMING IN WITH HIGHER
NUMBERS. AT HIS TIME MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE...BUT HIGHER IN THE ACADIANA AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK....MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.
ACCORDINGLY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
TRENDING MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  10
LCH  78  94  79  94 /  10  20  20  10
LFT  77  94  77  94 /  10  40  40  20
BPT  78  95  78  96 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050248
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
948 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS JUST
OUTSIDE OUR SE CWA BOUNDARY OVER TERREBONNE PARISH...AND WAS
KEEPING AN EYE ON ANY WWD DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING AND THINGS LOOK QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ACRS THE SRN
PARISHES/COUNTIES WITH UPPER 80S/NR 90 ACRS THE NORTH. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ON SLY LOW LVL WINDS WHILE THE KLCH
05/00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WITH PWAT BACK ABV 2 INCHES. A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF
CAMERON.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX OVERNIGHT WITH REMAINDER OF
FCST LOOKING FINE. ZONES UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS OVER
LOWER ACADIANA.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 05/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND BEEN
MAINLY UNEVENTFUL. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT AREA ON RADAR SHOULD MISS
ANY TAF SITE AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY. THEREFORE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW TO SCT CU UNTIL SUNSET...THEN CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED VCSH AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA SITES DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
INLAND AREA. LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTS NO NEED TO MENTION
ANY RAIN CHANCE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE/PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/MAV MOS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF MOS COMING IN WITH HIGHER
NUMBERS. AT HIS TIME MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE...BUT HIGHER IN THE ACADIANA AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK....MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.
ACCORDINGLY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
TRENDING MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  10
LCH  78  94  79  94 /  10  20  20  10
LFT  77  94  77  94 /  10  40  40  20
BPT  78  95  78  96 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 042336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 05/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND BEEN
MAINLY UNEVENTFUL. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT AREA ON RADAR SHOULD MISS
ANY TAF SITE AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY. THEREFORE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW TO SCT CU UNTIL SUNSET...THEN CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED VCSH AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA SITES DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
INLAND AREA. LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTS NO NEED TO MENTION
ANY RAIN CHANCE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE/PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/MAV MOS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF MOS COMING IN WITH HIGHER
NUMBERS. AT HIS TIME MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE...BUT HIGHER IN THE ACADIANA AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK....MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.
ACCORDINGLY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
TRENDING MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  10
LCH  78  94  79  94 /  10  20  20  10
LFT  77  94  77  94 /  20  40  40  20
BPT  78  95  78  96 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 05/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND BEEN
MAINLY UNEVENTFUL. THE FEW SHOWERS THAT AREA ON RADAR SHOULD MISS
ANY TAF SITE AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY. THEREFORE...SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW TO SCT CU UNTIL SUNSET...THEN CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED VCSH AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA SITES DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
INLAND AREA. LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTS NO NEED TO MENTION
ANY RAIN CHANCE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE/PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/MAV MOS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF MOS COMING IN WITH HIGHER
NUMBERS. AT HIS TIME MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE...BUT HIGHER IN THE ACADIANA AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK....MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.
ACCORDINGLY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
TRENDING MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  10
LCH  78  94  79  94 /  10  20  20  10
LFT  77  94  77  94 /  20  40  40  20
BPT  78  95  78  96 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 042133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
INLAND AREA. LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTS NO NEED TO MENTION
ANY RAIN CHANCE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE/PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/MAV MOS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF MOS COMING IN WITH HIGHER
NUMBERS. AT HIS TIME MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE...BUT HIGHER IN THE ACADIANA AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK....MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.
ACCORDINGLY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
TRENDING MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  10
LCH  78  94  79  94 /  10  20  20  10
LFT  77  94  77  94 /  20  40  40  20
BPT  78  95  78  96 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE MIGRATING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE
INLAND AREA. LACK OF ACTIVITY WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTS NO NEED TO MENTION
ANY RAIN CHANCE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING A BRIEF UPTICK IN MOISTURE/PWAT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL-END OF A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM/MAV MOS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE ECMWF MOS COMING IN WITH HIGHER
NUMBERS. AT HIS TIME MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
AREA-WIDE...BUT HIGHER IN THE ACADIANA AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK....MOISTURE VALUES AGAIN DROP
BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.
ACCORDINGLY WILL SEE AN GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
TRENDING MORE WESTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  10
LCH  78  94  79  94 /  10  20  20  10
LFT  77  94  77  94 /  20  40  40  20
BPT  78  95  78  96 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 041759
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CU. SEA BREEZE SHOWING UP NICELY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG THE SE TX/SW LA COAST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
LOWER JEFFERSON COUNTY. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW GENERALLY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR IT TO TRACK INLAND THERE...SO DID INCLUDE VCSH IN
THE KBPT TAF. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL LA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW N/NW OF OF HOUMA.
INCLUDED VCSH FOR KLFT AND KARA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WEAK EASTWARD
ADVANCING LOW OVER TERREBONNE PARISH. FEATURE AIDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS
IMMEDIATE AREA...AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEAR GULF
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ELSEWHERE.

MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT UP TO 1.62 INCHES WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A CONTINUED INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING LOW END POPS. NO UPDATE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING APPEAR
TO BE VISIBILITY AND POPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WHICH COULD PERSIST
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE GOOD HEATING COMMENCES AND THE LIGHT FOG
BURNS OFF. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A SLOWLY-EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WHICH COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND VCTS CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED AT KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 041759
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CU. SEA BREEZE SHOWING UP NICELY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG THE SE TX/SW LA COAST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
LOWER JEFFERSON COUNTY. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW GENERALLY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR IT TO TRACK INLAND THERE...SO DID INCLUDE VCSH IN
THE KBPT TAF. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL LA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW N/NW OF OF HOUMA.
INCLUDED VCSH FOR KLFT AND KARA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WEAK EASTWARD
ADVANCING LOW OVER TERREBONNE PARISH. FEATURE AIDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS
IMMEDIATE AREA...AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEAR GULF
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ELSEWHERE.

MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT UP TO 1.62 INCHES WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A CONTINUED INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING LOW END POPS. NO UPDATE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING APPEAR
TO BE VISIBILITY AND POPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WHICH COULD PERSIST
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE GOOD HEATING COMMENCES AND THE LIGHT FOG
BURNS OFF. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A SLOWLY-EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WHICH COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND VCTS CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED AT KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 041759
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AMID LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND FAIR
WEATHER CU. SEA BREEZE SHOWING UP NICELY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG THE SE TX/SW LA COAST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
LOWER JEFFERSON COUNTY. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW GENERALLY MORE
FAVORABLE FOR IT TO TRACK INLAND THERE...SO DID INCLUDE VCSH IN
THE KBPT TAF. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL LA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW N/NW OF OF HOUMA.
INCLUDED VCSH FOR KLFT AND KARA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WEAK EASTWARD
ADVANCING LOW OVER TERREBONNE PARISH. FEATURE AIDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS
IMMEDIATE AREA...AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEAR GULF
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ELSEWHERE.

MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT UP TO 1.62 INCHES WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A CONTINUED INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING LOW END POPS. NO UPDATE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING APPEAR
TO BE VISIBILITY AND POPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WHICH COULD PERSIST
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE GOOD HEATING COMMENCES AND THE LIGHT FOG
BURNS OFF. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A SLOWLY-EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WHICH COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND VCTS CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED AT KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041633
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WEAK EASTWARD
ADVANCING LOW OVER TERREBONNE PARISH. FEATURE AIDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS
IMMEDIATE AREA...AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEAR GULF
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ELSEWHERE.

MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT UP TO 1.62 INCHES WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A CONTINUED INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING LOW END POPS. NO UPDATE NEEDED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING APPEAR
TO BE VISIBILITY AND POPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WHICH COULD PERSIST
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE GOOD HEATING COMMENCES AND THE LIGHT FOG
BURNS OFF. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A SLOWLY-EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WHICH COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND VCTS CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED AT KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041633
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS SHOWING A WEAK EASTWARD
ADVANCING LOW OVER TERREBONNE PARISH. FEATURE AIDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS
IMMEDIATE AREA...AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEAR GULF
WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ELSEWHERE.

MORNING LCH SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT UP TO 1.62 INCHES WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A CONTINUED INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING LOW END POPS. NO UPDATE NEEDED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING APPEAR
TO BE VISIBILITY AND POPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WHICH COULD PERSIST
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE GOOD HEATING COMMENCES AND THE LIGHT FOG
BURNS OFF. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A SLOWLY-EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WHICH COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND VCTS CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED AT KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 041207
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING APPEAR
TO BE VISIBILITY AND POPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WHICH COULD PERSIST
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE GOOD HEATING COMMENCES AND THE LIGHT FOG
BURNS OFF. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A SLOWLY-EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WHICH COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND VCTS CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED AT KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 041207
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING APPEAR
TO BE VISIBILITY AND POPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WHICH COULD PERSIST
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE GOOD HEATING COMMENCES AND THE LIGHT FOG
BURNS OFF. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A SLOWLY-EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WHICH COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND VCTS CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED AT KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041207
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING APPEAR
TO BE VISIBILITY AND POPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WHICH COULD PERSIST
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE GOOD HEATING COMMENCES AND THE LIGHT FOG
BURNS OFF. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A SLOWLY-EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WHICH COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND VCTS CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED AT KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 041207
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
707 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN ITEMS OF CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS THIS MORNING APPEAR
TO BE VISIBILITY AND POPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. ATTM A FEW LOCATIONS
ARE SHOWING SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY WHICH COULD PERSIST
NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE GOOD HEATING COMMENCES AND THE LIGHT FOG
BURNS OFF. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A SLOWLY-EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO ENCROACH OVER LOWER
ACADIANA WHICH COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THERE...AND VCTS CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED AT KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 040815
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 040815
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
315 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING RADAR SHOWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
15 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE BETWEEN GRAND CHENIER AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DRIFTING EAST TO NORTHEAST.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WERE INDICATING THAT MARINE
AIR HAD BEGUN TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH DEWPOINTS 2 TO 5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 00Z TUE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT
THERE WAS CAPPING OR WARM AIR APPROXIMATELY 9500 FT TO 12420 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED INLAND
YESTERDAY AND IT APPEARED THAT THIS WARM CAP AND WEAK SEA BREEZE
GENERALLY RESULTED IN JUST A HOT MONDAY.

TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. SOUNDING PROFILE FORECAST OFF THE
GFS MODEL INDICATE THAT WITH TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE 1.60 TO NEAR 2" PW RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE THE SEA BREEZE MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE.
IN GENERAL THOUGH...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES AS THE WARM CAP REMAINS INTACT.

LOOKING INTO WEDNESDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND SLIGHT WESTWARD REGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL JUST
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. WENT AHEAD AND
UPPED THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINE TO TRIGGER AND DISTRIBUTE MORE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS MOS GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE
SIGNALING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SO EXPECT LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS SOME
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

FOR THE MOST...SUMMER STILL IS IN FULL SWING. EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  76  96  76 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  95  78  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
LFT  95  77  94  77 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  96  77  94  78 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 040428
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT IS
PROGGED TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION IS LOWER ACADIANA. THEREFORE...WILL
PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR KARA AND AFTER 04/19Z FOR KLFT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 040428
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT IS
PROGGED TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION IS LOWER ACADIANA. THEREFORE...WILL
PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR KARA AND AFTER 04/19Z FOR KLFT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 040428
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT IS
PROGGED TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION IS LOWER ACADIANA. THEREFORE...WILL
PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR KARA AND AFTER 04/19Z FOR KLFT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 040428
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT IS
PROGGED TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION IS LOWER ACADIANA. THEREFORE...WILL
PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR KARA AND AFTER 04/19Z FOR KLFT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 040253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INLAND PAST THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WITH A LINE OF CU. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON
TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW
MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION IS KARA...SO WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR
THAT SITE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 040253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INLAND PAST THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WITH A LINE OF CU. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON
TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW
MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION IS KARA...SO WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR
THAT SITE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 040253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INLAND PAST THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WITH A LINE OF CU. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON
TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW
MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION IS KARA...SO WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR
THAT SITE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 040253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INLAND PAST THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WITH A LINE OF CU. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON
TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW
MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION IS KARA...SO WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR
THAT SITE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 032339
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INLAND PAST THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WITH A LINE OF CU. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON
TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW
MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION IS KARA...SO WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR
THAT SITE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 032339
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INLAND PAST THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WITH A LINE OF CU. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON
TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW
MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION IS KARA...SO WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR
THAT SITE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 032143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 032143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  96  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  76  94  78  94 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  94  77  94 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  75  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 031814
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
114 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AMID FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER AND
HIGH BASED CU...AND LIGHT SFC WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
FROM WEAK SURFACE TROFFING/CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS LINGERING MID
LEVEL TROFFING/SHEAR AXIS. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LESSEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND LOW END POPS OVER LOWER ACADIANA LOOKS REASONABLE. NO UPDATE
COMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OFFSHORE
WILL BEGIN TO WAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 031814
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
114 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AMID FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER AND
HIGH BASED CU...AND LIGHT SFC WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
FROM WEAK SURFACE TROFFING/CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS LINGERING MID
LEVEL TROFFING/SHEAR AXIS. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LESSEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND LOW END POPS OVER LOWER ACADIANA LOOKS REASONABLE. NO UPDATE
COMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OFFSHORE
WILL BEGIN TO WAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 031530
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
FROM WEAK SURFACE TROFFING/CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS LINGERING MID
LEVEL TROFFING/SHEAR AXIS. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LESSEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND LOW END POPS OVER LOWER ACADIANA LOOKS REASONABLE. NO UPDATE
COMING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OFFSHORE
WILL BEGIN TO WAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 031530
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
FROM WEAK SURFACE TROFFING/CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS LINGERING MID
LEVEL TROFFING/SHEAR AXIS. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LESSEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND LOW END POPS OVER LOWER ACADIANA LOOKS REASONABLE. NO UPDATE
COMING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OFFSHORE
WILL BEGIN TO WAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 031530
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
DIMINISHING. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
FROM WEAK SURFACE TROFFING/CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS LINGERING MID
LEVEL TROFFING/SHEAR AXIS. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO
LESSEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. INLAND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND LOW END POPS OVER LOWER ACADIANA LOOKS REASONABLE. NO UPDATE
COMING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OFFSHORE
WILL BEGIN TO WAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 031220
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OFFSHORE
WILL BEGIN TO WAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 031220
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OFFSHORE
WILL BEGIN TO WAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 031220
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OFFSHORE
WILL BEGIN TO WAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 031220
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OFFSHORE
WILL BEGIN TO WAIN LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE INLAND COASTAL AREAS AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SPARSE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 030851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 030851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27





000
FXUS64 KLCH 030851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY INCREASING DEW POINTS. THAT
SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE TPW ANALYSIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WILL ADVANCE INLAND SOME TODAY AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHILE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK EARLY TO MID MORNING. STILL BASED ON THE DRY
AIR IN THE TPW ANALYSIS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LA.

UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED AND PUSH WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND POPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES.

RIDGE TRIES MOVE BACK EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS. THAT SAID THE EASTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE NEAR THE BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND THUS
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVES TO AID IN SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATED SOME POPS HERE THROUGH
THE WEEK...BUT AT OR BELOW CLIMO. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  74  96  75 /  10   0  20  10
LCH  95  76  93  78 /  10  10  30  10
LFT  95  76  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
BPT  95  76  94  77 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27





000
FXUS64 KLCH 030452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LT/VRBL
OR SLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WELL THE GOOD TIMES HAD TO END ALONG THE COAST AS THE C-BRZ MOVED
INLAND THIS EVE. DW POINTS WENT FROM 62 AT 7 PM TO 70 DEGREES BY
8 PM AT LCH. ALL OF THE COASTAL CITIES FROM BEAUMONT IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO LAFAYETTE HAS SEEN THE SAME CHANGE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
MRNG LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INSTEAD OF THE 60S AND
THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK TMRW.
BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT BROKE A BIT AND THIS WILL HELP IN AFTN STORM
PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD. 19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL THROUGH MONDAY
AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH OVER THE AREA. KLCH RADAR SHOWS
WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE
SRN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY TURN WINDS MORE
SE/S BUT OVERALL EXPECT LT AND GENERALLY VRBL WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT CU OR SC DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTN AS SLY WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD SEABREEZE-FOCUSED
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS AGAIN IS HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S.
ALSO...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE NEAR THE COAST. ON CONVECTION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS ABOUT 40 TO 60 MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE PLATFORM 60 MILES
SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND IS REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DEW POINT
OF 75F WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.

DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND
CONFINED TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS. THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS TAIL END OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSES AROUND THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE AND
BUILD EASTWARD...TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COMES BACK IN.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL AT THE SURFACE...AND LESS
CONVECTION...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN. COULD
BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND SOME DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE EURO HAS A WEAKER RIDGE CENTERED
FURTHER TO THE WEST...AND HIS WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF THESE
TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS EVEN IF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG IT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL MARINE JET.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  20
LCH  72  95  78  95 /  10  20  10  30
LFT  71  96  77  95 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  72  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 030452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LT/VRBL
OR SLY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WELL THE GOOD TIMES HAD TO END ALONG THE COAST AS THE C-BRZ MOVED
INLAND THIS EVE. DW POINTS WENT FROM 62 AT 7 PM TO 70 DEGREES BY
8 PM AT LCH. ALL OF THE COASTAL CITIES FROM BEAUMONT IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO LAFAYETTE HAS SEEN THE SAME CHANGE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
MRNG LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INSTEAD OF THE 60S AND
THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK TMRW.
BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT BROKE A BIT AND THIS WILL HELP IN AFTN STORM
PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD. 19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL THROUGH MONDAY
AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH OVER THE AREA. KLCH RADAR SHOWS
WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE
SRN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY TURN WINDS MORE
SE/S BUT OVERALL EXPECT LT AND GENERALLY VRBL WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT CU OR SC DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTN AS SLY WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD SEABREEZE-FOCUSED
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS AGAIN IS HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S.
ALSO...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE NEAR THE COAST. ON CONVECTION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS ABOUT 40 TO 60 MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE PLATFORM 60 MILES
SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND IS REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DEW POINT
OF 75F WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.

DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND
CONFINED TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS. THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS TAIL END OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSES AROUND THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE AND
BUILD EASTWARD...TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COMES BACK IN.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL AT THE SURFACE...AND LESS
CONVECTION...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN. COULD
BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND SOME DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE EURO HAS A WEAKER RIDGE CENTERED
FURTHER TO THE WEST...AND HIS WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF THESE
TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS EVEN IF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG IT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL MARINE JET.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  20
LCH  72  95  78  95 /  10  20  10  30
LFT  71  96  77  95 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  72  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 030246
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE GOOD TIMES HAD TO END ALONG THE COAST AS THE C-BRZ MOVED
INLAND THIS EVE. DW POINTS WENT FROM 62 AT 7 PM TO 70 DEGREES BY
8 PM AT LCH. ALL OF THE COASTAL CITIES FROM BEAUMONT IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO LAFAYETTE HAS SEEN THE SAME CHANGE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
MRNG LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INSTEAD OF THE 60S AND
THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK TMRW.
BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT BROKE A BIT AND THIS WILL HELP IN AFTN STORM
PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL THROUGH MONDAY
AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH OVER THE AREA. KLCH RADAR SHOWS
WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE
SRN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY TURN WINDS MORE
SE/S BUT OVERALL EXPECT LT AND GENERALLY VRBL WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT CU OR SC DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTN AS SLY WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD SEABREEZE-FOCUSED
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS AGAIN IS HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S.
ALSO...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE NEAR THE COAST. ON CONVECTION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS ABOUT 40 TO 60 MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE PLATFORM 60 MILES
SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND IS REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DEW POINT
OF 75F WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.

DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND
CONFINED TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS. THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS TAIL END OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSES AROUND THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE AND
BUILD EASTWARD...TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COMES BACK IN.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL AT THE SURFACE...AND LESS
CONVECTION...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN. COULD
BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND SOME DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE EURO HAS A WEAKER RIDGE CENTERED
FURTHER TO THE WEST...AND HIS WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF THESE
TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS EVEN IF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG IT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL MARINE JET.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  20
LCH  72  95  78  95 /  10  20  10  30
LFT  71  96  77  95 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  72  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 030246
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WELL THE GOOD TIMES HAD TO END ALONG THE COAST AS THE C-BRZ MOVED
INLAND THIS EVE. DW POINTS WENT FROM 62 AT 7 PM TO 70 DEGREES BY
8 PM AT LCH. ALL OF THE COASTAL CITIES FROM BEAUMONT IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TO LAFAYETTE HAS SEEN THE SAME CHANGE. THIS WILL MEAN THAT
MRNG LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INSTEAD OF THE 60S AND
THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX WILL CLIMB ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK TMRW.
BUT THE RIDGE ALOFT BROKE A BIT AND THIS WILL HELP IN AFTN STORM
PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS
LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL THROUGH MONDAY
AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH OVER THE AREA. KLCH RADAR SHOWS
WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE
SRN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY TURN WINDS MORE
SE/S BUT OVERALL EXPECT LT AND GENERALLY VRBL WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT CU OR SC DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTN AS SLY WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD SEABREEZE-FOCUSED
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS AGAIN IS HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S.
ALSO...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE NEAR THE COAST. ON CONVECTION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS ABOUT 40 TO 60 MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE PLATFORM 60 MILES
SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND IS REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DEW POINT
OF 75F WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.

DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND
CONFINED TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS. THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS TAIL END OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSES AROUND THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE AND
BUILD EASTWARD...TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COMES BACK IN.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL AT THE SURFACE...AND LESS
CONVECTION...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN. COULD
BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND SOME DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE EURO HAS A WEAKER RIDGE CENTERED
FURTHER TO THE WEST...AND HIS WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF THESE
TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS EVEN IF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG IT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL MARINE JET.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  20
LCH  72  95  78  95 /  10  20  10  30
LFT  71  96  77  95 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  72  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 022345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL THROUGH MONDAY
AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH OVER THE AREA. KLCH RADAR SHOWS
WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE
SRN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY TURN WINDS MORE
SE/S BUT OVERALL EXPECT LT AND GENERALLY VRBL WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT CU OR SC DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTN AS SLY WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD SEABREEZE-FOCUSED
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS AGAIN IS HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S.
ALSO...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE NEAR THE COAST. ON CONVECTION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS ABOUT 40 TO 60 MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE PLATFORM 60 MILES
SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND IS REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DEW POINT
OF 75F WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.

DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND
CONFINED TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS. THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS TAIL END OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSES AROUND THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE AND
BUILD EASTWARD...TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COMES BACK IN.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL AT THE SURFACE...AND LESS
CONVECTION...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN. COULD
BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND SOME DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE EURO HAS A WEAKER RIDGE CENTERED
FURTHER TO THE WEST...AND HIS WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF THESE
TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS EVEN IF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG IT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL MARINE JET.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  20
LCH  72  95  78  95 /  10  20  10  30
LFT  71  96  77  95 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  72  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 022345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
03/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL THROUGH MONDAY
AS MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS NORTH OVER THE AREA. KLCH RADAR SHOWS
WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY MAKING GRADUAL PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE
SRN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY TURN WINDS MORE
SE/S BUT OVERALL EXPECT LT AND GENERALLY VRBL WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT CU OR SC DEVELOPING
MONDAY AFTN AS SLY WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH AN ISLTD SEABREEZE-FOCUSED
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS AGAIN IS HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S.
ALSO...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE NEAR THE COAST. ON CONVECTION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS ABOUT 40 TO 60 MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE PLATFORM 60 MILES
SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND IS REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DEW POINT
OF 75F WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.

DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND
CONFINED TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS. THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS TAIL END OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSES AROUND THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE AND
BUILD EASTWARD...TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COMES BACK IN.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL AT THE SURFACE...AND LESS
CONVECTION...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN. COULD
BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND SOME DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE EURO HAS A WEAKER RIDGE CENTERED
FURTHER TO THE WEST...AND HIS WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF THESE
TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS EVEN IF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG IT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL MARINE JET.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  20
LCH  72  95  78  95 /  10  20  10  30
LFT  71  96  77  95 /  10  20  10  30
BPT  72  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24





000
FXUS64 KLCH 022016
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
316 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS AGAIN IS HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S.
ALSO...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE NEAR THE COAST. ON CONVECTION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS ABOUT 40 TO 60 MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE PLATFORM 60 MILES
SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND IS REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DEW POINT
OF 75F WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.

DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND
CONFINED TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS. THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS TAIL END OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSES AROUND THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE AND
BUILD EASTWARD...TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COMES BACK IN.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL AT THE SURFACE...AND LESS
CONVECTION...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN. COULD
BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND SOME DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE EURO HAS A WEAKER RIDGE CENTERED
FURTHER TO THE WEST...AND HIS WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF THESE
TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS EVEN IF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG IT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL MARINE JET.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  68  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  96  72  95  78 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  97  71  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  98  72  95  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 022016
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
316 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS AGAIN IS HELPING KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
DOWN DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO A FEW UPPER 90S.
ALSO...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES...THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY INACTIVE NEAR THE COAST. ON CONVECTION
SHOWING UP ON RADAR IS ABOUT 40 TO 60 MILES OFF THE COAST WHERE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE PLATFORM 60 MILES
SOUTH OF MARSH ISLAND IS REPORTING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DEW POINT
OF 75F WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED.

DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THEREFORE...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TYPE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED FOR MONDAY AND
CONFINED TO WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS. THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS TAIL END OF A SHORT
WAVE PASSES AROUND THE RIDGE AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE AND
BUILD EASTWARD...TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL HELP LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COMES BACK IN.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL AT THE SURFACE...AND LESS
CONVECTION...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN. COULD
BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON NEARING ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY FRIDAY.

NEXT WEEKEND SOME DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE.
GFS KEEPS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED FURTHER TO THE
EAST. THIS KEEPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE EURO HAS A WEAKER RIDGE CENTERED
FURTHER TO THE WEST...AND HIS WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND OF THESE
TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...AS EVEN IF THE SURFACE FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT ENTER THE
FORECAST AREA...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG IT WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE UP-COMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT WITH THE NOCTURNAL MARINE JET.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  97  68  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  96  72  95  78 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  97  71  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  98  72  95  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 021718
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY OVER THE AREA WITH THE
MORNING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A PWAT OF 1.27 INCHES. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH VFR
CONTINUING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 02/12Z...STILL SHOWS A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT AT 1.27 INCHES...WHICH IS ONLY
AROUND 75 PERCENT OF NORM...WITH A MEAN RH AT 43 PERCENT. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY DIVIDING THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WITH THE MOIST
GULF AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY STALLED ABOUT 60 TO 75 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OVER THE
GULF...AND DESPITE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
CHECK. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS STILL LOOK TOO DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY...THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE
COASTAL SITES TO SHIFT AROUND TO A SRLY DIRECTION BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SUPPRESSING MOST ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY
THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
RETURNING THE SOUTH FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE MORE TYPICAL 70S
DEWPTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY INTO WED, A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THIS WILL ERODE THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST TX HOWEVER. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
ACADIANA INTO CEN LA WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER SE TX.

THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND THEN SHIFT BACK WEST AGAIN FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BACK ONSHORE. THE SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  95  76  94  78 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  96  76  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  97  75  94  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 021718
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY OVER THE AREA WITH THE
MORNING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A PWAT OF 1.27 INCHES. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH VFR
CONTINUING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 02/12Z...STILL SHOWS A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT AT 1.27 INCHES...WHICH IS ONLY
AROUND 75 PERCENT OF NORM...WITH A MEAN RH AT 43 PERCENT. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY DIVIDING THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WITH THE MOIST
GULF AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY STALLED ABOUT 60 TO 75 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OVER THE
GULF...AND DESPITE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
CHECK. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS STILL LOOK TOO DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY...THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE
COASTAL SITES TO SHIFT AROUND TO A SRLY DIRECTION BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SUPPRESSING MOST ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY
THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
RETURNING THE SOUTH FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE MORE TYPICAL 70S
DEWPTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY INTO WED, A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THIS WILL ERODE THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST TX HOWEVER. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
ACADIANA INTO CEN LA WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER SE TX.

THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND THEN SHIFT BACK WEST AGAIN FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BACK ONSHORE. THE SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  95  76  94  78 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  96  76  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  97  75  94  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021718
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY OVER THE AREA WITH THE
MORNING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A PWAT OF 1.27 INCHES. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH VFR
CONTINUING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 02/12Z...STILL SHOWS A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT AT 1.27 INCHES...WHICH IS ONLY
AROUND 75 PERCENT OF NORM...WITH A MEAN RH AT 43 PERCENT. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY DIVIDING THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WITH THE MOIST
GULF AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY STALLED ABOUT 60 TO 75 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OVER THE
GULF...AND DESPITE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
CHECK. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS STILL LOOK TOO DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY...THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE
COASTAL SITES TO SHIFT AROUND TO A SRLY DIRECTION BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SUPPRESSING MOST ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY
THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
RETURNING THE SOUTH FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE MORE TYPICAL 70S
DEWPTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY INTO WED, A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THIS WILL ERODE THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST TX HOWEVER. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
ACADIANA INTO CEN LA WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER SE TX.

THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND THEN SHIFT BACK WEST AGAIN FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BACK ONSHORE. THE SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  95  76  94  78 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  96  76  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  97  75  94  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021718
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY OVER THE AREA WITH THE
MORNING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A PWAT OF 1.27 INCHES. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH VFR
CONTINUING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 02/12Z...STILL SHOWS A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT AT 1.27 INCHES...WHICH IS ONLY
AROUND 75 PERCENT OF NORM...WITH A MEAN RH AT 43 PERCENT. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY DIVIDING THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WITH THE MOIST
GULF AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY STALLED ABOUT 60 TO 75 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OVER THE
GULF...AND DESPITE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
CHECK. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS STILL LOOK TOO DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY...THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE
COASTAL SITES TO SHIFT AROUND TO A SRLY DIRECTION BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SUPPRESSING MOST ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY
THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
RETURNING THE SOUTH FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE MORE TYPICAL 70S
DEWPTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY INTO WED, A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THIS WILL ERODE THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST TX HOWEVER. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
ACADIANA INTO CEN LA WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER SE TX.

THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND THEN SHIFT BACK WEST AGAIN FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BACK ONSHORE. THE SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  95  76  94  78 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  96  76  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  97  75  94  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 021451
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 02/12Z...STILL SHOWS A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PWAT AT 1.27 INCHES...WHICH IS ONLY
AROUND 75 PERCENT OF NORM...WITH A MEAN RH AT 43 PERCENT. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY DIVIDING THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR WITH THE MOIST
GULF AIR IS STILL RELATIVELY STALLED ABOUT 60 TO 75 MILES
OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TODAY. THEREFORE...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OVER THE
GULF...AND DESPITE ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
CHECK. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS AND NO
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS STILL LOOK TOO DRY TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY...THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE
COASTAL SITES TO SHIFT AROUND TO A SRLY DIRECTION BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
NORTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
MONDAY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SUPPRESSING MOST ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH MONDAY
THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC
RETURNING THE SOUTH FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE MORE TYPICAL 70S
DEWPTS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY INTO WED, A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THIS WILL ERODE THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER WEST TX HOWEVER. THIS
WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS OVER
ACADIANA INTO CEN LA WITH LESSER CHANCES OVER SE TX.

THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD AND THEN SHIFT BACK WEST AGAIN FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING MONDAY. THIS
WILL TURN THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BACK ONSHORE. THE SUB TROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST KEEPING AN ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  95  76  94  78 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  96  76  96  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  97  75  94  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ201-215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





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