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000
FXUS64 KLCH 011036
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...

A FRONTAL WAVE LOW IS FOUND JUST EAST OF LUFKIN THIS MORNING.

ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BOWS CLOCKWISE THROUGH WOODVILLE THROUGH
HOUSTON. ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT DRAPES SOUTH THROUGH DERIDDER
THROUGH LAFAYETTE. THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE SEPARATES THE TWO FRONTS.

THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE WILL EXPAND TODAY...AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A TEXAS DRY-AIR INTRUSION
WILL DE-STABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

JT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AN
ADDITIONAL CLUSTER IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THEY ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER OUR
AREA.  WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW AN AREA OF MOISTURE INLAND FROM
CORPUS CRISTI ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO ACADIANA MOVING OFFSHORE.
BEHIND THAT MOISTURE COMPLEX IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CURRENT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT THE SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE THROUGH BY 21Z. THE
HRRR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE AND SO I TRENDED
MORE TOWARDS THE WRF ARW IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SLOWLY
OFFSHORE. WITH THE WET PATTERN EXPECTED MINOR STREET FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT FORECASTED QPF TOTALS ARE ONLY IN THE 0.5 TO
1.5 INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST BEING A WET ONE.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST... WITH THE EXPECTED WET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE TRENDED TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE
BECAUSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN FEW EXTENDED PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER 80S FURTHER INLAND. AEX COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE A RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURE. THE CURRENT MIN FORECAST IS 83
AND THE RECORD LOW MAX IS 81. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMALS RUNNING
5-8 DEGREES BELOW. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON EITHER
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE ECMWF VS THE GFS
RESPECTIVELY. ONCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS WE SHOULD
SEE A DRIER AIR MASS MOVE OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD BRING A LACK
OF SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES.

DEAL

MARINE...
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORCING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THOSE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
STALL OFF THE COAST WHERE IT WILL BE THE SOURCE OF THE EXPECTED
SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  86  73  87  73  87 /  40  40  40  30  40
KBPT  87  73  87  73  88 /  50  40  30  30  30
KAEX  83  70  85  70  86 /  50  40  40  30  40
KLFT  86  74  86  73  86 /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 011036
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.AVIATION...

A FRONTAL WAVE LOW IS FOUND JUST EAST OF LUFKIN THIS MORNING.

ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BOWS CLOCKWISE THROUGH WOODVILLE THROUGH
HOUSTON. ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT DRAPES SOUTH THROUGH DERIDDER
THROUGH LAFAYETTE. THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE SEPARATES THE TWO FRONTS.

THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE WILL EXPAND TODAY...AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. A TEXAS DRY-AIR INTRUSION
WILL DE-STABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR WEDGE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

JT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AN
ADDITIONAL CLUSTER IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THEY ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER OUR
AREA.  WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW AN AREA OF MOISTURE INLAND FROM
CORPUS CRISTI ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO ACADIANA MOVING OFFSHORE.
BEHIND THAT MOISTURE COMPLEX IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CURRENT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT THE SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE THROUGH BY 21Z. THE
HRRR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE AND SO I TRENDED
MORE TOWARDS THE WRF ARW IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SLOWLY
OFFSHORE. WITH THE WET PATTERN EXPECTED MINOR STREET FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT FORECASTED QPF TOTALS ARE ONLY IN THE 0.5 TO
1.5 INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST BEING A WET ONE.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST... WITH THE EXPECTED WET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE TRENDED TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE
BECAUSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN FEW EXTENDED PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER 80S FURTHER INLAND. AEX COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE A RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURE. THE CURRENT MIN FORECAST IS 83
AND THE RECORD LOW MAX IS 81. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMALS RUNNING
5-8 DEGREES BELOW. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON EITHER
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE ECMWF VS THE GFS
RESPECTIVELY. ONCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS WE SHOULD
SEE A DRIER AIR MASS MOVE OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD BRING A LACK
OF SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES.

DEAL

MARINE...
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORCING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THOSE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
STALL OFF THE COAST WHERE IT WILL BE THE SOURCE OF THE EXPECTED
SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  86  73  87  73  87 /  40  40  40  30  40
KBPT  87  73  87  73  88 /  50  40  30  30  30
KAEX  83  70  85  70  86 /  50  40  40  30  40
KLFT  86  74  86  73  86 /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 010838
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AN
ADDITIONAL CLUSTER IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THEY ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER OUR
AREA.  WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW AN AREA OF MOISTURE INLAND FROM
CORPUS CRISTI ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO ACADIANA MOVING OFFSHORE.
BEHIND THAT MOISTURE COMPLEX IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CURRENT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT THE SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE THROUGH BY 21Z. THE
HRRR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE AND SO I TRENDED
MORE TOWARDS THE WRF ARW IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SLOWLY
OFFSHORE. WITH THE WET PATTERN EXPECTED MINOR STREET FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT FORECASTED QPF TOTALS ARE ONLY IN THE 0.5 TO
1.5 INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST BEING A WET ONE.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST... WITH THE EXPECTED WET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE TRENDED TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE
BECAUSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN FEW EXTENDED PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER 80S FURTHER INLAND. AEX COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE A RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURE. THE CURRENT MIN FORECAST IS 83
AND THE RECORD LOW MAX IS 81. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMALS RUNNING
5-8 DEGREES BELOW. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON EITHER
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE ECMWF VS THE GFS
RESPECTIVELY. ONCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS WE SHOULD
SEE A DRIER AIR MASS MOVE OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD BRING A LACK
OF SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES.

DEAL

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORCING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THOSE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
STALL OFF THE COAST WHERE IT WILL BE THE SOURCE OF THE EXPECTED
SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  86  73  87  73  87 /  40  40  40  30  40
KBPT  87  73  87  73  88 /  50  40  30  30  30
KAEX  83  70  85  70  86 /  50  40  40  30  40
KLFT  86  74  86  73  86 /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010446
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND BEGIN TO SLOW ITS
MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KBPT SHOULD HAVE PREVAILING
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 02/09Z FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH VCSH
FOR KAEX AND KLCH. ACTIVITY SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT NEAR A FRONT
BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL WAVE OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. WILL PLACE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
KAEX/KBPT/KLCH BEGINNING IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN VCSH BY 02/18Z WITH
PROB30 GROUPS AT KLFT/KARA AS ACTIVITY PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...A MORE MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW THAT IS IN
THE VICINITY OF LUFKIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
NEAR THE LOW AND BACK ALONG THE TRAILING WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE THE CWA THROUGH THE
THE EVENING WHILE SLOWING. THIS MAY PRODUCE THE TREAT FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST CENTRAL LA THROUGH SE TX INLAND FROM
THE COAST. POPS HAVE BUMPED UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO
FRI AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN AND WEAKENS.

TINGLER


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  50  40  30  30
KBPT  75  89  73  86  74 /  60  50  40  20  30
KAEX  71  85  69  87  70 /  70  50  20  30  30
KLFT  74  87  76  87  73 /  40  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 010446
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND BEGIN TO SLOW ITS
MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KBPT SHOULD HAVE PREVAILING
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 02/09Z FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH VCSH
FOR KAEX AND KLCH. ACTIVITY SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT NEAR A FRONT
BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL WAVE OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. WILL PLACE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
KAEX/KBPT/KLCH BEGINNING IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN VCSH BY 02/18Z WITH
PROB30 GROUPS AT KLFT/KARA AS ACTIVITY PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...A MORE MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW THAT IS IN
THE VICINITY OF LUFKIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
NEAR THE LOW AND BACK ALONG THE TRAILING WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE THE CWA THROUGH THE
THE EVENING WHILE SLOWING. THIS MAY PRODUCE THE TREAT FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST CENTRAL LA THROUGH SE TX INLAND FROM
THE COAST. POPS HAVE BUMPED UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO
FRI AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN AND WEAKENS.

TINGLER


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  50  40  30  30
KBPT  75  89  73  86  74 /  60  50  40  20  30
KAEX  71  85  69  87  70 /  70  50  20  30  30
KLFT  74  87  76  87  73 /  40  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010038
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
738 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...A MORE MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW THAT IS IN
THE VICINITY OF LUFKIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
NEAR THE LOW AND BACK ALONG THE TRAILING WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE THE CWA THROUGH THE
THE EVENING WHILE SLOWING. THIS MAY PRODUCE THE TREAT FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST CENTRAL LA THROUGH SE TX INLAND FROM
THE COAST. POPS HAVE BUMPED UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO
FRI AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN AND WEAKENS.



TINGLER



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND SLOW DOWN...REMAINING WEST OF TAF SITES.
THEREFORE...WILL PLACE A VCSH AT KAEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR
A FEW OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THAT TAF SITE...WITH JUST VFR
ELSEWHERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT NEAR A FRONT BOUNDARY
AND FRONTAL WAVE OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY. WILL PLACE PRO30 FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
KAEX/KBPT/KLCH BEGINNING IN THE MORNING HOURS...THEN AT KLFT/KARA
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  50  40  30  30
KBPT  75  89  73  86  74 /  60  50  40  20  30
KAEX  71  85  69  87  70 /  70  50  20  30  30
KLFT  74  87  76  87  73 /  40  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 312324
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND SLOW DOWN...REMAINING WEST OF TAF SITES.
THEREFORE...WILL PLACE A VCSH AT KAEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR
A FEW OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THAT TAF SITE...WITH JUST VFR
ELSEWHERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT NEAR A FRONT BOUNDARY
AND FRONTAL WAVE OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY. WILL PLACE PRO30 FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
KAEX/KBPT/KLCH BEGINNING IN THE MORNING HOURS...THEN AT KLFT/KARA
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  30  40  30  30
KBPT  76  89  73  86  74 /  50  30  40  20  30
KAEX  70  85  69  87  70 /  60  40  20  30  30
KLFT  75  87  76  87  73 /  50  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 312324
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF EAST
TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND SLOW DOWN...REMAINING WEST OF TAF SITES.
THEREFORE...WILL PLACE A VCSH AT KAEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS FOR
A FEW OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING THAT TAF SITE...WITH JUST VFR
ELSEWHERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT NEAR A FRONT BOUNDARY
AND FRONTAL WAVE OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY. WILL PLACE PRO30 FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
KAEX/KBPT/KLCH BEGINNING IN THE MORNING HOURS...THEN AT KLFT/KARA
IN THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  30  40  30  30
KBPT  76  89  73  86  74 /  50  30  40  20  30
KAEX  70  85  69  87  70 /  60  40  20  30  30
KLFT  75  87  76  87  73 /  50  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 312113 AAA
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014


SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  30  40  30  30
KBPT  76  89  73  86  74 /  50  30  40  20  30
KAEX  70  85  69  87  70 /  60  40  20  30  30
KLFT  75  87  76  87  73 /  50  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 312113 AAA
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014


SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  30  40  30  30
KBPT  76  89  73  86  74 /  50  30  40  20  30
KAEX  70  85  69  87  70 /  60  40  20  30  30
KLFT  75  87  76  87  73 /  50  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 312100
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME TONIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BERMUDA RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  30  40  30  30
KBPT  76  89  73  86  74 /  50  30  40  20  30
KAEX  70  85  69  87  70 /  60  40  20  30  30
KLFT  75  87  76  87  73 /  50  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 312100
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME TONIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BERMUDA RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  30  40  30  30
KBPT  76  89  73  86  74 /  50  30  40  20  30
KAEX  70  85  69  87  70 /  60  40  20  30  30
KLFT  75  87  76  87  73 /  50  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 311822
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE REMAINING
PRECIP FROM THE MORNING MCS CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE UPON APPROACH
TO THE NRN ZONES. MEANWHILE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS
PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AS WELL. DESPITE HIGH PWAT VALUES IN
THIS MORNINGS REGIONAL SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
WINNING OUT. STILL HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO VCSH MENTIONS AT THE
WRN/NRN SITES WHERE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE BEST AND LIFT SHOULD
BE A LITTLE BETTER GIVEN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE MOST PART...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD
LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS AT KAEX. POST-SUNRISE THE INTERACTION OF
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT/THE WEAK FRONT/COPIOUS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WITH
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT LEFT OUT THE TAFS FOR NOW.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...SOME THETA TROFFING AT H7 HELPED DIMINISH THE SHOWERS
HEADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE
COAST HAS EXPANDED WEST OF CAMERON. MADE SOME CHANGES KNOCKING DOWN
POPS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING MENTION OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
THIS MORNING. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW AS THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE DFW
AREA HEADS SOUTHEAST. TEMPS LOOKING PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  20  40  50  40  30
KAEX  90  69  85  70  89 /  40  50  50  40  30
KLFT  90  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 311822
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE REMAINING
PRECIP FROM THE MORNING MCS CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE UPON APPROACH
TO THE NRN ZONES. MEANWHILE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HAS
PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AS WELL. DESPITE HIGH PWAT VALUES IN
THIS MORNINGS REGIONAL SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
WINNING OUT. STILL HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO VCSH MENTIONS AT THE
WRN/NRN SITES WHERE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE BEST AND LIFT SHOULD
BE A LITTLE BETTER GIVEN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE QUIET WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE MOST PART...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD
LEAD TO LOWER CEILINGS AT KAEX. POST-SUNRISE THE INTERACTION OF
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT/THE WEAK FRONT/COPIOUS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...WITH
THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT LEFT OUT THE TAFS FOR NOW.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...SOME THETA TROFFING AT H7 HELPED DIMINISH THE SHOWERS
HEADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE
COAST HAS EXPANDED WEST OF CAMERON. MADE SOME CHANGES KNOCKING DOWN
POPS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING MENTION OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
THIS MORNING. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW AS THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE DFW
AREA HEADS SOUTHEAST. TEMPS LOOKING PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  20  40  50  40  30
KAEX  90  69  85  70  89 /  40  50  50  40  30
KLFT  90  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 311513
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1013 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...SOME THETA TROFFING AT H7 HELPED DIMINISH THE SHOWERS
HEADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OFF THE
COAST HAS EXPANDED WEST OF CAMERON. MADE SOME CHANGES KNOCKING DOWN
POPS TO THE NORTH AND INCREASING MENTION OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
THIS MORNING. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NW AS THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE DFW
AREA HEADS SOUTHEAST. TEMPS LOOKING PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  20  40  50  40  30
KAEX  90  69  85  70  89 /  40  50  50  40  30
KLFT  90  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 311136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  87  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  89  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 311136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY FOR
ALL SITES.  MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HANDLING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY.  IN THE NEAR TERM...MCS OVER NE TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
AEX THROUGH MID MORNING.  COVERAGE NEAR AEX WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS.  ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  90  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  87  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  89  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 310949
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  89  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  86  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  88  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER








000
FXUS64 KLCH 310949
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MCS
OVER NE TEXAS. THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME WE ARE REMAINING IN THE DRIER
AIR BUT THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF
DFW/FTW METRO-PLEX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THIS REGION.
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
WILL BEGIN TO SWING IN FROM THE NW... THIS WILL SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVE. STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP US A FEW DEGREES COOLER.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER AROUND OUR REGION AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. NOT LOOKING FOR AT LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS...
GENERALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND FOUR TO
FIVE INCHES. STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  74  87  73  90 /  30  40  50  40  40
KBPT  89  74  90  73  92 /  30  40  50  40  30
KAEX  86  69  85  70  89 /  50  50  50  40  30
KLFT  88  73  87  73  89 /  30  30  50  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER







000
FXUS64 KLCH 310224
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
924 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTED A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...CAPPED BY A 4400-FOOT FRONTAL INVERSION.

THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE 5000 TO
10000-FOOT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINED THE
SAME. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND 1.63 INCHES (ABOUT 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR LATE JULY).

A STATIONARY FRONT SPOKES FROM A FRONTAL-WAVE LOW VICINITY DALLAS
THROUGH BEAUMONT TO THE MIDPOINT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO (25N 88W.)

FOR TONIGHT...WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR WHERE
RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

HOWEVER...WEAK ADVECTIVE WARMING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE (CONTINGENT ON THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT).

THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR CALM THROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING AND BECOME SE TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY PERIOD AT UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  67  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 310224
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
924 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTED A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...CAPPED BY A 4400-FOOT FRONTAL INVERSION.

THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE 5000 TO
10000-FOOT LAYER. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINED THE
SAME. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS AROUND 1.63 INCHES (ABOUT 90
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR LATE JULY).

A STATIONARY FRONT SPOKES FROM A FRONTAL-WAVE LOW VICINITY DALLAS
THROUGH BEAUMONT TO THE MIDPOINT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO (25N 88W.)

FOR TONIGHT...WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR WHERE
RELATIVELY COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

HOWEVER...WEAK ADVECTIVE WARMING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE (CONTINGENT ON THE POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT).

THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR CALM THROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING AND BECOME SE TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY PERIOD AT UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  67  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 302311
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR CALM THROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING AND BECOME SE TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY PERIOD AT UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  68  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 302311
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND THU
MORNING, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. VCSH WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO NEAR CALM THROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING AND BECOME SE TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID
DAY PERIOD AT UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  68  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 302022
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  68  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 302022
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
322 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA WHILE FAIR WX CU IS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES AND INTO SE TX
AS A WEAK RETURN FLOW GETS UNDERWAY WITHIN A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM HIGH ISLAND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DRIVES A LEAD FRONTAL WAVE
OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE DEW POINTS STAY BLO THE 70 MARK TNITE
ALLOWING ONE MORE NIGHT WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE COOLER THAN CLIMO TREND
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE BACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROF ANCHORS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAINTAINS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WAVES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE NW GULF IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROF. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAKNESS REMAINS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS.
THE REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN AS A
CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87  73 /  10  30  40  50  30
KBPT  74  89  75  86  74 /  10  20  30  50  30
KAEX  68  87  70  86  69 /  10  40  40  50  30
KLFT  69  89  74  87  73 /  10  20  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 301754
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICT THE BEGINNINGS
OF A CU FIELD AT KBPT AS SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS COMMENCED THERE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT RETURN TO
BOTH KBPT/KLCH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW SPREADS EWD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 301754
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICT THE BEGINNINGS
OF A CU FIELD AT KBPT AS SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS COMMENCED THERE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT RETURN TO
BOTH KBPT/KLCH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW SPREADS EWD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE HIGH.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 301514
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 301514
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1014 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...DELIGHTFUL CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS SUMMER
THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS MORNING. APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE TYPICAL 102 WE SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SINCE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 70 MARK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NE LA.

AS THE FRONT RETREATS THIS AFTERNOON INTO LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING A COOLING SEABREEZE
TO COASTAL SE TX. ONLY CHANGE IS TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND
90 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AROUND BEAUMONT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  90  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  91  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  91  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 301153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT... A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL ONLY LAST FOR
LESS THAN AN HOUR... OTHERWISE LOOKING AT LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW
CLOUDS TODAY... VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.

MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  93  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  90  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  90  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 300843
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S NORTH OF
THE I10 CORRIDOR. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEGATIVE THTE
ADVECTION FOR TODAY SO EXPECT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN SHIFT NORTH TODAY OVER TEXAS AS
GOOD PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED. HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY
WITH DECENT RAIN COVERAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...THINK THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE STALLED OVER EAST TEXAS/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THAT TIME.  THIS COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN UPPER NW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THIS AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...NO CHANGE TO POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW DRYING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTH WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST CYCLE.


&&

.MARINE...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE
DEVELOPS. ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE  BENIGN WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  72  90  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KBPT  93  74  91  75  88 /  10  10  10  40  50
KAEX  90  69  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  40  50
KLFT  90  72  90  74  88 /  10  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 300221
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COOL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. ITS SOUTHERN EDGE IS MARKED BY A STATIONARY FRONT
...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM GALVESTON TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY

THE EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT DRIER
AIR COLUMN...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EARLY-MORNING SOUNDING. ]
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED BY 0.70 INCHES...TO 1.63 INCHES
(OVER 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY)

THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRACE REVEALD A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION
AROUND THE 5500-FOOT LEVEL.

ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...AS TRAVELING CANADIAN AIR
...MODIFIED BY ITS LONG TREK ACROSS THE WARM GROUND...SNEAKS INTO
THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

THE STRONGEST ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49
STRETCH BETWEEN ALEXANDRIA AND LAFAYETTE. THE WEAKEST ADVECTIVE
COOLING WILL BE OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE.

WILL LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTH TO NW TO NEAR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND BECOME NE TO EAST WED UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  91  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KBPT  72  92  74  90  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KAEX  65  90  68  88  69 /  10  10  10  40  50
KLFT  67  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 300221
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COOL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH
OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS. ITS SOUTHERN EDGE IS MARKED BY A STATIONARY FRONT
...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM GALVESTON TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY

THE EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT DRIER
AIR COLUMN...WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EARLY-MORNING SOUNDING. ]
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DECREASED BY 0.70 INCHES...TO 1.63 INCHES
(OVER 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY)

THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TRACE REVEALD A SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION
AROUND THE 5500-FOOT LEVEL.

ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...AS TRAVELING CANADIAN AIR
...MODIFIED BY ITS LONG TREK ACROSS THE WARM GROUND...SNEAKS INTO
THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES.

THE STRONGEST ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49
STRETCH BETWEEN ALEXANDRIA AND LAFAYETTE. THE WEAKEST ADVECTIVE
COOLING WILL BE OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE.

WILL LOWER THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO REFLECT
CURRENT THINKING.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTH TO NW TO NEAR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND BECOME NE TO EAST WED UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  91  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KBPT  72  92  74  90  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KAEX  65  90  68  88  69 /  10  10  10  40  50
KLFT  67  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KLCH 292349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND GENERALLY NORTH TO NW TO NEAR CALM WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT AND BECOME NE TO EAST WED UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  91  72  89  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KBPT  74  92  74  90  74 /  10  10  10  30  50
KAEX  67  90  68  88  69 /  10  10  10  40  50
KLFT  71  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 292206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  91  72  89 /  10  10  10  30
KBPT  74  92  74  90 /  10  10  10  30
KAEX  67  90  68  88 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  71  89  72  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 292206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION FARTHER
WEST TO THE SOUTH OF GALVESTON BAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALED A MEAN EAST COAST TROF/WRN
CONUS RIDGE PATTERN...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL YIELD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RETREATING
NORTH TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH TX IN RESPONSE
TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...TAKING ON
A MORE NW TO SE ORIENTATION AS IT REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. HAVE HELD THE FCST DRY...AS BETTER MSTR DEPTH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD.

THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN CHANGING ON THU...HOWEVER...AS MSTR
DEPTH INCREASES AND THE WEAK RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AS THE SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE ARKLATEX. THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE SE TWD THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHICH CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE PERIOD WITH OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD DEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE VORT LOBES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. THE TROF IS
PROGGED TO FILL EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS
TO HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR...WITH THE GFS POINTING TWD DRYING
US OUT MORE QUICKLY THAN THE ECMWF. HELD ONTO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL
POPS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEK

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  91  72  89 /  10  10  10  30
KBPT  74  92  74  90 /  10  10  10  30
KAEX  67  90  68  88 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  71  89  72  89 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 291743
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM COASTAL SE TX OUT OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS RESULTED IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS SOUTH YET SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE BPT TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE VCTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AT
LFT AND ARA WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY THIS EVENING. CAVOK AT AEX.
LIGHT NE WINDS FOR ALL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION PROVING A BIT STUBBORN OVER SE TX AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS A NET SOUTHWARD SHIFT TAKING PLACE. SENT
ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS HERE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS BECOME A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IS SFC OBS...BUT
APPEARS TO SLICE ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE LA COASTLINE. VORT LOBE
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SE THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES REGION HELPING
TO INITIATE CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE TX AND OUT
INTO THE GULF WATERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO A CHANCE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS MDLS DEPICT A CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR.

REMAINING CHANGES WERE GENERALLY MINOR AND TO BRING HOURLY FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT NOW S OF THE SE TX/SW LA
COAST...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE JUST S OF THE SC LA COAST IGNITING A
BKN LINE OF TSRA JUST S OF CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S NOW ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE TODAY
BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY THIS EVENING...PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS C LA TO NEAR/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK WED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N GULF THU
AFTERNOON INTO FRI...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUED ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT...BUT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FURTHER BY SUN AND MON AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROF SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NE.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN AS
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS THE
FRONT BACK NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  73  90  74  89 /  30  20  20  10  30
KBPT  92  76  90  76  89 /  60  20  20  10  30
KAEX  91  68  90  70  87 /  10  10  20  20  40
KLFT  91  71  90  72  90 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 291743
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM COASTAL SE TX OUT OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS RESULTED IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS SOUTH YET SUFFICIENTLY CLOSE TO THE BPT TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE VCTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AT
LFT AND ARA WILL BE SCATTERING OUT BY THIS EVENING. CAVOK AT AEX.
LIGHT NE WINDS FOR ALL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION PROVING A BIT STUBBORN OVER SE TX AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS A NET SOUTHWARD SHIFT TAKING PLACE. SENT
ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS HERE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS BECOME A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IS SFC OBS...BUT
APPEARS TO SLICE ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE LA COASTLINE. VORT LOBE
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SE THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES REGION HELPING
TO INITIATE CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE TX AND OUT
INTO THE GULF WATERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO A CHANCE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS MDLS DEPICT A CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR.

REMAINING CHANGES WERE GENERALLY MINOR AND TO BRING HOURLY FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT NOW S OF THE SE TX/SW LA
COAST...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE JUST S OF THE SC LA COAST IGNITING A
BKN LINE OF TSRA JUST S OF CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S NOW ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE TODAY
BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY THIS EVENING...PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS C LA TO NEAR/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK WED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N GULF THU
AFTERNOON INTO FRI...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUED ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT...BUT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FURTHER BY SUN AND MON AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROF SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NE.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN AS
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS THE
FRONT BACK NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  73  90  74  89 /  30  20  20  10  30
KBPT  92  76  90  76  89 /  60  20  20  10  30
KAEX  91  68  90  70  87 /  10  10  20  20  40
KLFT  91  71  90  72  90 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 291727
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION PROVING A BIT STUBBORN OVER SE TX AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS A NET SOUTHWARD SHIFT TAKING PLACE. SENT
ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS HERE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS BECOME A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IS SFC OBS...BUT
APPEARS TO SLICE ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE LA COASTLINE. VORT LOBE
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SE THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES REGION HELPING
TO INITIATE CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE TX AND OUT
INTO THE GULF WATERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO A CHANCE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS MDLS DEPICT A CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR.

REMAINING CHANGES WERE GENERALLY MINOR AND TO BRING HOURLY FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT NOW S OF THE SE TX/SW LA
COAST...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE JUST S OF THE SC LA COAST IGNITING A
BKN LINE OF TSRA JUST S OF CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S NOW ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE TODAY
BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY THIS EVENING...PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS C LA TO NEAR/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK WED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N GULF THU
AFTERNOON INTO FRI...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUED ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT...BUT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FURTHER BY SUN AND MON AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROF SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NE.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN AS
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS THE
FRONT BACK NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  90  74  89 /  20  20  10  30
KBPT  76  90  76  89 /  20  20  10  30
KAEX  68  90  70  87 /  10  20  20  40
KLFT  71  90  72  90 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 291727
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION PROVING A BIT STUBBORN OVER SE TX AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS A NET SOUTHWARD SHIFT TAKING PLACE. SENT
ANOTHER UPDATE TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS HERE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS BECOME A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IS SFC OBS...BUT
APPEARS TO SLICE ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST OFF THE LA COASTLINE. VORT LOBE
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SE THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES REGION HELPING
TO INITIATE CONVECTION INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SE TX AND OUT
INTO THE GULF WATERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO A CHANCE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS MDLS DEPICT A CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR.

REMAINING CHANGES WERE GENERALLY MINOR AND TO BRING HOURLY FIRST
PERIOD GRIDS LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT NOW S OF THE SE TX/SW LA
COAST...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE JUST S OF THE SC LA COAST IGNITING A
BKN LINE OF TSRA JUST S OF CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S NOW ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.

THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD A BIT MORE TODAY
BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEEPING THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BY THIS EVENING...PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH FURTHER AS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS C LA TO NEAR/LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE BY DAYBREAK WED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N GULF THU
AFTERNOON INTO FRI...WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUED ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SAT...BUT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FURTHER BY SUN AND MON AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROF SLOWLY FILLS AND LIFTS NE.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN AS
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS THE
FRONT BACK NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  90  74  89 /  20  20  10  30
KBPT  76  90  76  89 /  20  20  10  30
KAEX  68  90  70  87 /  10  20  20  40
KLFT  71  90  72  90 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







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