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000
FXUS64 KLCH 192051
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION HAVE WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AGAIN
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNSTABLE AND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LOUISIANA THROUGH 8 PM. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED INTO TYLER AND HARDIN COUNTIES AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM WINDS.

STORMS CHANGING OVER TO RAINS BEHIND THE FRONT... PRECIP ENDING
BEFORE SUNRISE. A BIT COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER START TO THE NEW
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. MORNING
LOWS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED. RAINS RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  59  76  52 /  40  40   0   0
LCH  80  62  78  56 /  20  30   0   0
LFT  83  64  78  57 /  30  30  10   0
BPT  80  61  78  58 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 192051
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION HAVE WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AGAIN
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNSTABLE AND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LOUISIANA THROUGH 8 PM. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED INTO TYLER AND HARDIN COUNTIES AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM WINDS.

STORMS CHANGING OVER TO RAINS BEHIND THE FRONT... PRECIP ENDING
BEFORE SUNRISE. A BIT COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER START TO THE NEW
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN AND INTO THE REGION. MORNING
LOWS INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED. RAINS RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  59  76  52 /  40  40   0   0
LCH  80  62  78  56 /  20  30   0   0
LFT  83  64  78  57 /  30  30  10   0
BPT  80  61  78  58 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 192014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  59  76  52  78 /  40   0   0  10
LCH  62  78  56  79 /  30   0   0  10
LFT  64  78  57  79 /  30  10   0  10
BPT  61  78  58  79 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 191701
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT KAEX LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM
SW TO NW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS PUNCHED IN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT VFR WITH SWLY WINDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TNITE WITH NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT BPT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
LINE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THE RELEASE OF THIS DISCUSSION. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SOUNDING PROFILES THIS MORNING CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND THAT WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE LCH SOUNDING DROPPING TO 1.50 INCHES AND WAS EVEN LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS. SUSPECT THAT DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER AN INCH
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MATCHING THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SHOULD
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE SCRAPPED TOGETHER FOR A
LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END EARLY ACROSS THE LAND AREA WITH RAIN EXITING THE COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SERIOUS DRYING TIME FOR THIS SOGGY LADEN REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS IN EARNEST BY MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS
FOR PIECES OF ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY AND TURN
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  60  76  54 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  84  63  79  59 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  85  64  79  59 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  83  63  79  60 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 191701
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT KAEX LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM
SW TO NW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS PUNCHED IN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT VFR WITH SWLY WINDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TNITE WITH NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT BPT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
LINE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THE RELEASE OF THIS DISCUSSION. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SOUNDING PROFILES THIS MORNING CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND THAT WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE LCH SOUNDING DROPPING TO 1.50 INCHES AND WAS EVEN LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS. SUSPECT THAT DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER AN INCH
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MATCHING THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SHOULD
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE SCRAPPED TOGETHER FOR A
LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END EARLY ACROSS THE LAND AREA WITH RAIN EXITING THE COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SERIOUS DRYING TIME FOR THIS SOGGY LADEN REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS IN EARNEST BY MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS
FOR PIECES OF ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY AND TURN
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  60  76  54 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  84  63  79  59 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  85  64  79  59 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  83  63  79  60 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 191701
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT KAEX LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM
SW TO NW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS PUNCHED IN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT VFR WITH SWLY WINDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TNITE WITH NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT BPT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
LINE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THE RELEASE OF THIS DISCUSSION. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SOUNDING PROFILES THIS MORNING CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND THAT WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE LCH SOUNDING DROPPING TO 1.50 INCHES AND WAS EVEN LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS. SUSPECT THAT DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER AN INCH
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MATCHING THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SHOULD
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE SCRAPPED TOGETHER FOR A
LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END EARLY ACROSS THE LAND AREA WITH RAIN EXITING THE COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SERIOUS DRYING TIME FOR THIS SOGGY LADEN REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS IN EARNEST BY MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS
FOR PIECES OF ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY AND TURN
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  60  76  54 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  84  63  79  59 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  85  64  79  59 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  83  63  79  60 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 191701
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AT KAEX LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM
SW TO NW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS PUNCHED IN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT VFR WITH SWLY WINDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TNITE WITH NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT BPT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
LINE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THE RELEASE OF THIS DISCUSSION. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SOUNDING PROFILES THIS MORNING CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND THAT WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE LCH SOUNDING DROPPING TO 1.50 INCHES AND WAS EVEN LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS. SUSPECT THAT DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER AN INCH
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MATCHING THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SHOULD
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE SCRAPPED TOGETHER FOR A
LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END EARLY ACROSS THE LAND AREA WITH RAIN EXITING THE COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SERIOUS DRYING TIME FOR THIS SOGGY LADEN REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS IN EARNEST BY MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS
FOR PIECES OF ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY AND TURN
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  60  76  54 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  84  63  79  59 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  85  64  79  59 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  83  63  79  60 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 191116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS PUNCHED IN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT VFR WITH SWLY WINDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TNITE WITH NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT BPT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
LINE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THE RELEASE OF THIS DISCUSSION. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SOUNDING PROFILES THIS MORNING CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND THAT WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE LCH SOUNDING DROPPING TO 1.50 INCHES AND WAS EVEN LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS. SUSPECT THAT DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER AN INCH
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MATCHING THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SHOULD
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE SCRAPPED TOGETHER FOR A
LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END EARLY ACROSS THE LAND AREA WITH RAIN EXITING THE COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SERIOUS DRYING TIME FOR THIS SOGGY LADEN REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS IN EARNEST BY MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS
FOR PIECES OF ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY AND TURN
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  60  76  54 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  84  63  79  59 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  85  64  79  59 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  83  63  79  60 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 191116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS PUNCHED IN BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT VFR WITH SWLY WINDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TNITE WITH NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT BPT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
LINE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THE RELEASE OF THIS DISCUSSION. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SOUNDING PROFILES THIS MORNING CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND THAT WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE LCH SOUNDING DROPPING TO 1.50 INCHES AND WAS EVEN LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS. SUSPECT THAT DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER AN INCH
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MATCHING THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SHOULD
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE SCRAPPED TOGETHER FOR A
LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END EARLY ACROSS THE LAND AREA WITH RAIN EXITING THE COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SERIOUS DRYING TIME FOR THIS SOGGY LADEN REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS IN EARNEST BY MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS
FOR PIECES OF ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY AND TURN
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  60  76  54 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  84  63  79  59 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  85  64  79  59 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  83  63  79  60 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 190930
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
LINE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THE RELEASE OF THIS DISCUSSION. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SOUNDING PROFILES THIS MORNING CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND THAT WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE LCH SOUNDING DROPPING TO 1.50 INCHES AND WAS EVEN LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS. SUSPECT THAT DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER AN INCH
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MATCHING THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SHOULD
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE SCRAPPED TOGETHER FOR A
LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END EARLY ACROSS THE LAND AREA WITH RAIN EXITING THE COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SERIOUS DRYING TIME FOR THIS SOGGY LADEN REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS IN EARNEST BY MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS
FOR PIECES OF ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY AND TURN
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  60  76  54 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  84  63  79  59 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  85  64  79  59 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  83  63  79  60 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 190930
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
430 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
 A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE WAS PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS
LINE WILL EXIT THE AREA BY THE RELEASE OF THIS DISCUSSION. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE LOWER 60S OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 70 AS YOU MIGRATE INTO THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SOUNDING PROFILES THIS MORNING CONFIRM THE DRYING TREND THAT WAS
FORECAST YESTERDAY FOR THIS TIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE LCH SOUNDING DROPPING TO 1.50 INCHES AND WAS EVEN LOWER
NORTHERN AREAS. SUSPECT THAT DRYING IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
CONTINUE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO UNDER AN INCH
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON MATCHING THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT
COULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THIS SHOULD
HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE SCRAPPED TOGETHER FOR A
LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END EARLY ACROSS THE LAND AREA WITH RAIN EXITING THE COASTAL AREAS
MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
SERIOUS DRYING TIME FOR THIS SOGGY LADEN REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS IN EARNEST BY MID WEEK ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AS UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS
FOR PIECES OF ENERGY TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY TUESDAY AND TURN
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  60  76  54 /  20  30  10  10
LCH  84  63  79  59 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  85  64  79  59 /  20  20  10  10
BPT  83  63  79  60 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 190505
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS ANTICIPATED...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA...AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS STARTING TO DECAY. TIMED THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE
INTO KBPT...KLCH...AND KAEX AS JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN. NO EFFECTS CARRIED AT THE ACADIANA
TERMINALS. EXPECT THAT THE RESULTANT MIXING WILL IMPROVE THE
VISIBILITY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT DID SHOW THE FOG RE-
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS LATER. VFR TO PREVAIL TOMORROW ONCE THE
FOG ERODES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WX CONCERN IS THE MCS OVER C AND N TX...MOVING E. RADAR STILL
SHOWS FAIRLY SOLID SQUALL LINE BETWEEN  WHILE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LATEST NAM12 & HRRR SUGGEST IT CONTINUING E
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AFFECTING INLAND SE TX/C LA BETWEEN
06-09Z. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...20%
CONTINUES FOR ANY ISO SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  30  30  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 190505
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS ANTICIPATED...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA...AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS STARTING TO DECAY. TIMED THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE
INTO KBPT...KLCH...AND KAEX AS JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN. NO EFFECTS CARRIED AT THE ACADIANA
TERMINALS. EXPECT THAT THE RESULTANT MIXING WILL IMPROVE THE
VISIBILITY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT DID SHOW THE FOG RE-
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS LATER. VFR TO PREVAIL TOMORROW ONCE THE
FOG ERODES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WX CONCERN IS THE MCS OVER C AND N TX...MOVING E. RADAR STILL
SHOWS FAIRLY SOLID SQUALL LINE BETWEEN  WHILE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LATEST NAM12 & HRRR SUGGEST IT CONTINUING E
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AFFECTING INLAND SE TX/C LA BETWEEN
06-09Z. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...20%
CONTINUES FOR ANY ISO SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  30  30  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 190505
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS ANTICIPATED...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA...AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS STARTING TO DECAY. TIMED THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE
INTO KBPT...KLCH...AND KAEX AS JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN. NO EFFECTS CARRIED AT THE ACADIANA
TERMINALS. EXPECT THAT THE RESULTANT MIXING WILL IMPROVE THE
VISIBILITY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT DID SHOW THE FOG RE-
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS LATER. VFR TO PREVAIL TOMORROW ONCE THE
FOG ERODES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WX CONCERN IS THE MCS OVER C AND N TX...MOVING E. RADAR STILL
SHOWS FAIRLY SOLID SQUALL LINE BETWEEN  WHILE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LATEST NAM12 & HRRR SUGGEST IT CONTINUING E
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AFFECTING INLAND SE TX/C LA BETWEEN
06-09Z. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...20%
CONTINUES FOR ANY ISO SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  30  30  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 190505
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AS ANTICIPATED...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA...AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IS STARTING TO DECAY. TIMED THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE
INTO KBPT...KLCH...AND KAEX AS JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED
WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN. NO EFFECTS CARRIED AT THE ACADIANA
TERMINALS. EXPECT THAT THE RESULTANT MIXING WILL IMPROVE THE
VISIBILITY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT DID SHOW THE FOG RE-
DEVELOPING A COUPLE HOURS LATER. VFR TO PREVAIL TOMORROW ONCE THE
FOG ERODES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN WX CONCERN IS THE MCS OVER C AND N TX...MOVING E. RADAR STILL
SHOWS FAIRLY SOLID SQUALL LINE BETWEEN  WHILE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LATEST NAM12 & HRRR SUGGEST IT CONTINUING E
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AFFECTING INLAND SE TX/C LA BETWEEN
06-09Z. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...20%
CONTINUES FOR ANY ISO SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  30  30  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 190225
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
925 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WX CONCERN IS THE MCS OVER C AND N TX...MOVING E. RADAR STILL
SHOWS FAIRLY SOLID SQUALL LINE BETWEEN  WHILE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LATEST NAM12 & HRRR SUGGEST IT CONTINUING E
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AFFECTING INLAND SE TX/C LA BETWEEN
06-09Z. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...20%
CONTINUES FOR ANY ISO SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  30  30  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 190225
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
925 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WX CONCERN IS THE MCS OVER C AND N TX...MOVING E. RADAR STILL
SHOWS FAIRLY SOLID SQUALL LINE BETWEEN  WHILE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LATEST NAM12 & HRRR SUGGEST IT CONTINUING E
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AFFECTING INLAND SE TX/C LA BETWEEN
06-09Z. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...20%
CONTINUES FOR ANY ISO SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  30  30  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 190225
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
925 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WX CONCERN IS THE MCS OVER C AND N TX...MOVING E. RADAR STILL
SHOWS FAIRLY SOLID SQUALL LINE BETWEEN  WHILE SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...LATEST NAM12 & HRRR SUGGEST IT CONTINUING E
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AFFECTING INLAND SE TX/C LA BETWEEN
06-09Z. THUS...HAVE INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF ACROSS THESE AREAS
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...20%
CONTINUES FOR ANY ISO SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  30  30  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  30  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 190034
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  40  20  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  30  10  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...13





000
FXUS64 KLCH 190034
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
734 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHING PERHAPS AS FAR AS JUST
EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/MODEL TRENDS THROUGH
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR/IFR AS LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CIGS
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  40  20  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  30  10  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...13




000
FXUS64 KLCH 182121
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  40  20  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  30  10  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24





000
FXUS64 KLCH 182121
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW-MOVING UPR LOW OVER
ERN COLORADO...WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. ONE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACRS
SRN TX INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE CROSSING WRN TX.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TRIGGERING STORMS ACRS THE NW/CNTL GULF
COAST AS WELL AS ACRS WRN TX. OVER THE IMMEDIATE CWA...ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED FAIRLY SCTD...WITH A SWATH OF LT/MODT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTL/WRN LA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE
TODAY...AND ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS LIMITED INFLOW.
THIS COMBINATION HAS REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TODAY AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. LOOKING AT A
COMBINATION OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS RAP/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
A DECREASING TREND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ACTIVITY
ALONG THE TX COAST IS EXPECTED TO TREK E/NE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES OUR COASTAL WATERS ZONES. LIKEWISE...THE STORMS
ACRS WRN TX WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...BUT ALSO WEAKEN AS THEY
REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO BRING A REPREIVE FROM THE RAINY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLT
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SCT BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED IN A SLT RISK FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUS AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER
OF COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

DRY WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS ON MONDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SMALL RAIN CHCS WILL
RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH CHCS INCREASING TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHC POPS
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTMS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MODT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING
FOR MONDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER ELY TUESDAY...THEN
SELY BY WEDNESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  83  60  76 /  40  20  30  10
LCH  64  82  63  79 /  30  10  20  10
LFT  65  84  64  79 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  64  82  63  79 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 181920
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
220 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS TO
VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR ALSO VSBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3 SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE BRIEFLY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SWLY FLOW. EXPECT SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN AS THIS IMPULSE TRAVELS OVER
THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TODAY TO REFLECT RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS.
ALSO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS...AND THIS PRODUCED MUCH LOWER QPF ACRS
SE TX. THUS...CANCELLED THE FFA ACRS OUR SE TX ZONES. KEPT FFA UP
ACRS LA AND ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS LOWER...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ACRS PORTIONS OF SW LA. REMAINDER OF FCST IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH JUST SOME MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...AEX STARTING OUT IFR ON CIGS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WITH LGT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR LATE TNITE AS WE SCATTER OUT ALOFT BUT REMAIN
MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS IN SCUD ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  82  61  78 /  50  20  20  10
LCH  65  82  64  80 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  66  84  65  80 /  60  30  20  10
BPT  65  82  64  80 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 181920
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
220 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND RAINS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS TO
VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR ALSO VSBY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3 SM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE BRIEFLY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SWLY FLOW. EXPECT SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN AS THIS IMPULSE TRAVELS OVER
THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TODAY TO REFLECT RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS.
ALSO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS...AND THIS PRODUCED MUCH LOWER QPF ACRS
SE TX. THUS...CANCELLED THE FFA ACRS OUR SE TX ZONES. KEPT FFA UP
ACRS LA AND ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS LOWER...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ACRS PORTIONS OF SW LA. REMAINDER OF FCST IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH JUST SOME MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...AEX STARTING OUT IFR ON CIGS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WITH LGT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR LATE TNITE AS WE SCATTER OUT ALOFT BUT REMAIN
MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS IN SCUD ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  82  61  78 /  50  20  20  10
LCH  65  82  64  80 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  66  84  65  80 /  60  30  20  10
BPT  65  82  64  80 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 181659
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE BRIEFLY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SWLY FLOW. EXPECT SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN AS THIS IMPULSE TRAVELS OVER
THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TODAY TO REFLECT RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS.
ALSO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS...AND THIS PRODUCED MUCH LOWER QPF ACRS
SE TX. THUS...CANCELLED THE FFA ACRS OUR SE TX ZONES. KEPT FFA UP
ACRS LA AND ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS LOWER...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ACRS PORTIONS OF SW LA. REMAINDER OF FCST IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH JUST SOME MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...AEX STARTING OUT IFR ON CIGS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WITH LGT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR LATE TNITE AS WE SCATTER OUT ALOFT BUT REMAIN
MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS IN SCUD ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  64  82  61 /  80  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  80  40  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  78  65  82  64 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 181659
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE BRIEFLY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SWLY FLOW. EXPECT SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN AS THIS IMPULSE TRAVELS OVER
THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TODAY TO REFLECT RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS.
ALSO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS...AND THIS PRODUCED MUCH LOWER QPF ACRS
SE TX. THUS...CANCELLED THE FFA ACRS OUR SE TX ZONES. KEPT FFA UP
ACRS LA AND ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS LOWER...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ACRS PORTIONS OF SW LA. REMAINDER OF FCST IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH JUST SOME MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...AEX STARTING OUT IFR ON CIGS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WITH LGT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR LATE TNITE AS WE SCATTER OUT ALOFT BUT REMAIN
MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS IN SCUD ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  64  82  61 /  80  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  80  40  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  78  65  82  64 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 181659
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE BRIEFLY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SWLY FLOW. EXPECT SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN AS THIS IMPULSE TRAVELS OVER
THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TODAY TO REFLECT RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS.
ALSO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS...AND THIS PRODUCED MUCH LOWER QPF ACRS
SE TX. THUS...CANCELLED THE FFA ACRS OUR SE TX ZONES. KEPT FFA UP
ACRS LA AND ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS LOWER...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ACRS PORTIONS OF SW LA. REMAINDER OF FCST IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH JUST SOME MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...AEX STARTING OUT IFR ON CIGS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WITH LGT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR LATE TNITE AS WE SCATTER OUT ALOFT BUT REMAIN
MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS IN SCUD ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  64  82  61 /  80  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  80  40  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  78  65  82  64 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 181659
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO STABILIZE BRIEFLY. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE MOIST SWLY FLOW. EXPECT SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN AS THIS IMPULSE TRAVELS OVER
THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS TODAY TO REFLECT RECENT HRRR AND RAP RUNS.
ALSO ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS...AND THIS PRODUCED MUCH LOWER QPF ACRS
SE TX. THUS...CANCELLED THE FFA ACRS OUR SE TX ZONES. KEPT FFA UP
ACRS LA AND ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS LOWER...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ACRS PORTIONS OF SW LA. REMAINDER OF FCST IS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH JUST SOME MINOR EDITS TO HOURLY
TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...AEX STARTING OUT IFR ON CIGS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WITH LGT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR LATE TNITE AS WE SCATTER OUT ALOFT BUT REMAIN
MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS IN SCUD ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  64  82  61 /  80  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  80  40  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  78  65  82  64 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 181156
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...AEX STARTING OUT IFR ON CIGS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WITH LGT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR LATE TNITE AS WE SCATTER OUT ALOFT BUT REMAIN
MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS IN SCUD ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 181156
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
656 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...AEX STARTING OUT IFR ON CIGS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE
VFR CIGS WITH LGT RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS LATER
THIS MORNING. MVFR LATE TNITE AS WE SCATTER OUT ALOFT BUT REMAIN
MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. COULD SEE SOME IFR CIGS IN SCUD ALONG
WITH SOME LIGHT FOG.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 3-4 INCHES OF
RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF URBAN AREAS...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
CAMERON PARISH OVER THE MARSHES. OTHERWISE...1 TO 2 INCH RAINS
WERE COMMON FROM OPELOUSAS...WEST TO DEQUINCY...TO ORANGE AND
VILLAGE MILLS. THE NORTHERN AREAS HAVE BEEN SPARED THIS TIME
AROUND.

THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND OF
COURSE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...AND THE CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM 40NM TO WELL BEYOND 60NM HAS DIVERTED THE DEEP GULF
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH WAY FROM AREA. THERE IS A GOOD PLUME OF
CLOUDS BLOWING OFF GULF CONVECTION SWEEPING NORTHWARD ACROSS AREA
TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOUNDING FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOLDING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OR BETTER AT
LEAST UNTIL 00Z AND THEN DROP OFF. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AS THE RISK FROM SPC IS
SLIGHT. CLOUDS MAY HINDER INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY ANYWAY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE ISOLATED IF ANY.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE LIFTED TODAY IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THE SATURATED SOILS AND FILLED DITCHES. REALLY BELIEVE THAT THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE OF ANY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINS...HOWEVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVIER RAINS FROM UPSTREAM INSTABILITY...THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP FOR NOW AS IT WOULD NOT BE PRUDENT TO MOVE IT
JUST YET.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH THE
SOUTHERLY TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTHERN
STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AS IT DOES...DEEP MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE...DO EXPECT TO SEE A BIG DROPOFF IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY BUT KEEP LOW POPS IN AS AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A
WARM FRONT BY MIDWEEK AND THEREFORE WILL GET A BUMP UP IN POPS AS
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
FALL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MARINE...
AM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS BAD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC DISRUPTION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND OUTFLOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  80  30  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  70  30  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 / 100  30  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 180713
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND. UPDATE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  90  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  90  50  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 180713
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND. UPDATE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  90  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  90  50  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 180713
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND. UPDATE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  90  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  90  50  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 180713
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS WEAKENED OVER LAND. UPDATE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE
WATCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  64  82  61 /  90  50  20  20
LCH  77  65  82  64 /  90  50  20  20
LFT  78  66  84  65 /  90  60  30  20
BPT  79  65  82  64 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 180234
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  90  90  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  90  90  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  90  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  90  90  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 180234
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  90  90  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  90  90  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  90  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  90  90  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 180234
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
934 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS TRUCKING ENE AT 30-35 KTS ACROSS SE TX/COASTAL WATERS.
KXIH AWOS ABOUT 15 MILES SE OF GALVESTON REPORTED A 61 KNOT WIND
GUST AS THE APEX OF THE BOW PASSED OVER THIS PLATFORM. THUS...FOR
THIS AND THE LIKEHOOD OF IT CONTINUING SVR FOR THE NEXT 4-5
HOURS...SPC ISSUED SVR WATCH #71 THRU 2 AM FOR SE TX COUNTIES/LA
PARISHES ALONG AND S OF I-10 INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERWARDS...AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
SAT...ADDING TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OF THIS WX SYSTEM. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THRU 6 PM SAT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO
TIMING OF POPS/WX AND SVR WORDING TO FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  90  90  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  90  90  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  90  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  90  90  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 180021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  80  80  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  80  70  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  80  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 180021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
721 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT FCST THIS EVENING WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE TX THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL PROGS...THUS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL AT THE KBPT...KLCH AND
KAEX TERMINALS. FCSTS AT KARA AND KLFT WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
NOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  80  80  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  80  70  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  80  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 172044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  80  80  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  80  70  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  80  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KLCH 172044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR NEXT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WELL TO OUR
WEST AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE
ALOFT AND APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
WRN/CNTL TX ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH
THE EVENING...WHILE ALSO FURTHER DEVELOPING AS INCREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTENING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF IT...THUS EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH BEST VALUES ACROSS
THE SWRN ZONES WHERE SEVERE WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE
GRIDS/ZONES. IN ADDITION AS STATED EARLIER...HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS YET
ANOTHER IMPULSE ALOFT SLIPS INTO THE REGION. THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS INCLUDED IN AN SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
EARLIER CONVECTION AND HOW IT MAY WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE PLUS
LIMITED HEATING FROM CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. FOR NOW AM NOT INSERTING
SEVERE MENTION INTO THE SATURDAY GRIDS/ZONES BUT AM SURE THIS WILL
BE RE-EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS...STAY TUNED.

PRECIP WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS..AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY
CROSSES THE AREA. ATTM MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS A NRLY FLOW IS PROGGED
THROUGH THE COLUMN. HOWEVER OUR POP-FREE FORECAST LOOKS SHORT-
LIVED FOR AT LEAST THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP IN TIME FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF MEXICO.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A GRADUAL REPEAT OF THE
PAST WEEK AS GRADUAL MOISTENING AND PERIODIC IMPULSES ALOFT
COMBINE FOR PERIODS OF CONVECTION BEGINNING MID-WEEK. HOWEVER AM
CAPPING POPS IN THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LONG-RANGE
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  76  64  82 /  80  80  50  20
LCH  69  77  65  82 /  80  70  50  20
LFT  70  78  66  84 /  80  90  60  30
BPT  69  79  65  82 /  80  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 171851
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
151 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MAINLY
SCT/BKN CUMULUS OVER THE REGION...WITH PREVAILING VFR AND OCNL
MVFR CIGS AT TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
CIGS WILL LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR AFTER 06Z...WITH SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITHIN
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR. 25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

AP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171550
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171550
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A FUN DAY YESTERDAY...LOCAL 88DS ARE REFRESHINGLY QUIET THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY JUST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXITING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
BRUSHING LOWER ACADIANA. 12Z KLCH SOUNDING SHOWED A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE MODIFIED
SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR INSTABILITY TO THURSDAY. PLAYING TO OUR
ADVANTAGE TODAY IS A RELATIVE LACK OF APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN
THAT WE ARE STILL REASONABLY MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE...DAYTIME
HEATING OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD STILL SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LACK OF PRECIP TODAY...STILL EXPECTING
ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FLOODING WHICH OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND THE
SATURATED GROUNDS LEFT BEHIND FROM ALL THE RAIN...EXTENDED THE
INHERITED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE JUST TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  77  62 /  30  70  80  40
LCH  82  67  77  64 /  40  70  80  40
LFT  81  69  78  65 /  40  60  90  40
BPT  82  67  79  64 /  40  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 171116
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...SINCE MIDNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY. RADAR NOW SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THESE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY LOOKS TO WITH MUCH LESS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA AS SOME
SHARPLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MODELS
SUGGESTING A RAMPING UP OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. ALTOCU CLOUDS AT AROUND 10KT FT CURRENTLY
OVER AREA. WILL SEE LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES BUT WILL MAINTAIN THESE WITHIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 170835
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 170835
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 170835
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 170835
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...POPS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT WAS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS OF 08Z. THE
LATEST HRRR CONFIRMS THIS WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING SIGNIFICANT
LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA FOR NOW...BUT MAY CANCEL EARLY IF
WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. WILL TAPER POPS TO MID RANGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN LIFTING UPPER TROUGH NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALSO...APPEARS THAT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY.
WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER SATURDAY...A MUCH NEEDED PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECASTED. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING DRY WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONT IS
FORECASTED TO STALL OVER THE GULF AND RETURN NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE
FLOW. WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  80  66  77  62 /  60  70  80  40
LCH  81  67  77  64 /  70  70  80  40
LFT  80  69  78  65 /  70  60  90  40
BPT  81  67  79  64 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 170329
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
STALLED COASTAL TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD TO TAP INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE
NEAR TERM...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND THEN BASICALLY TRAINING
BETWEEN 190 AND I-10 IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA THROUGH AT-LEAST 1 AM.
ALSO...STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A QUICK SPIN UP FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TORNADO WATCH 65 WILL CONTINUE FOR
HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 3
AM...IF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON THE MONEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DAYBREAK...EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  70  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  66  80  67  80 / 100  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 170329
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
STALLED COASTAL TROUGH LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVERHEAD TO TAP INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE
NEAR TERM...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND THEN BASICALLY TRAINING
BETWEEN 190 AND I-10 IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA THROUGH AT-LEAST 1 AM.
ALSO...STORMS THAT CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED RIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE COASTAL TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A QUICK SPIN UP FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND TORNADO WATCH 65 WILL CONTINUE FOR
HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 3
AM...IF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ON THE MONEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
AND WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DAYBREAK...EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  70  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  66  80  67  80 / 100  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 170153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 170153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 170153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
853 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD TORNADO WATCH 65 FROM SPC FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS DECENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY MAY CAUSE A FEW SPIN UPS ALONG THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST THAT COULD REACH LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 162305
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KLCH 162305
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
-SHRA WITH A MIX OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. AEX HAS HAD CONTINUOUS TSRA WITH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DIMINISHING AS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SEVERAL OTHER VORT MAXES PRODUCING
NUMEROUS TSRA ACROSS MOST OF E TX...AND COASTAL LA...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREAT OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA & MVFR VSBY CEILINGS
THIS EVENING. RAIN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MORNING. AFTER 15Z FRI...INSTABILITY
WILL IGNITE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE AREA...THUS
PLACING PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL AREAS FROM 18-24Z.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GOING TO KEEP THIS BRIEF THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING TO POP UP IN A
MOISTURE-RICH AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT THE ROCKIES...AS WELL
AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCES PASSING
OVERHEAD. FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION HAS HAD A HARD TIME GETTING
GOING ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT HAS COME ON
WITH A VENGEANCE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CNTL LA WHERE
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IS BEING REPORTED IN ALEXANDRIA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE LAKES REGION
OF SERN TX AS WELL. ALL IN ALL HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AS
WELL AS EXTENDED IT TEMPORALLY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN ALREADY
SATURATED GROUNDS...EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HIGH
POPS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FLOOD WATCH EXTENDED BY
LATER SHIFTS. BY SUNDAY THE LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND EJECT
NEWD...TAKING BEST DYNAMICS WITH IT ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY TAKES HOLD. THEREFORE POPS FINALLY
DIMINISH TO A MUCH LESSER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY...AND THEN LOOK FAIRLY
SLIM AT WORST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
SRN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER ACTIVE AND ONCE MOISTURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN...SLIGHT OR LOW END CHANCE POPS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...
EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  79  66  78 /  90  60  70  70
LCH  67  80  67  78 / 100  60  70  70
LFT  68  79  69  79 /  90  70  60  80
BPT  68  80  67  80 / 100  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08




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