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000
FXUS64 KLCH 240253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 240253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 232345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  64  82 /   0  10  20  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...23
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 232345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  64  82 /   0  10  20  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...23
AVIATION...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 232121
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 232121
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 231919
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
219 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAIR WEATHER CU PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE THERE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/GUIDANCE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO
THE EAST AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ...IT APPEARS
THE LOW CLOUD MODE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STRATUS VERSUS FOG. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME REDUCTION TO VSBYS...BUT THE DENSE AND
PERSISTENT FOG SEEN AT KBPT AND KLCH THIS MORNING IS UNLIKELY.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE BROUGHT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING...THEN IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU. KEPT
PREVAILING MVFR AT KAEX...WITH A TEMPO TO IFR. IMPROVED ALL SITES
A CAT BY MID MORNING...YIELDING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES AND VFR
AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64 /   0  20  20  20
KLFT  82  64  80  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231919
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
219 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAIR WEATHER CU PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE THERE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/GUIDANCE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO
THE EAST AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ...IT APPEARS
THE LOW CLOUD MODE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STRATUS VERSUS FOG. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME REDUCTION TO VSBYS...BUT THE DENSE AND
PERSISTENT FOG SEEN AT KBPT AND KLCH THIS MORNING IS UNLIKELY.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE BROUGHT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING...THEN IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU. KEPT
PREVAILING MVFR AT KAEX...WITH A TEMPO TO IFR. IMPROVED ALL SITES
A CAT BY MID MORNING...YIELDING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES AND VFR
AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64 /   0  20  20  20
KLFT  82  64  80  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 231535
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231535
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 231211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 230936
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

RDEAL








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230936
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

RDEAL







000
FXUS64 KLCH 230716
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST SENT OUT TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SOME AREAS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

RDEAL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  62  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
KLFT  82  64  81  64  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 230716
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST SENT OUT TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SOME AREAS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

RDEAL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  62  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
KLFT  82  64  81  64  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230454
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 230454
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 230303
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230303
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 222349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 222349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 222014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221719
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. COOL FRONT IS NOW
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST. HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR ONGOING AT ALL
TERMINALS UNDER CU AND STRATOCU. CLOUDS WILL BE ERODING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANTICIPATING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH THAT...COULD SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
ALL TERMINALS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY
EAST OF KAEX TO KACP TO JUST NORTH OF KBMT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY STALL BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING AT KLCH SHOWED DECENT MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 1.50 INCHES. FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER IS WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING. WILL
HOLD ON TO JUST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH COMBO FROM THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY NOON OR SO PER FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO GIVE ADDITIONAL THOUGHT TO FOG POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND A
SHALLOW RIBBON OF SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  63  81  64  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
KAEX  81  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  80  63  81  64  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 221517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY
EAST OF KAEX TO KACP TO JUST NORTH OF KBMT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY STALL BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING AT KLCH SHOWED DECENT MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 1.50 INCHES. FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER IS WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING. WILL
HOLD ON TO JUST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH COMBO FROM THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY NOON OR SO PER FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO GIVE ADDITIONAL THOUGHT TO FOG POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND A
SHALLOW RIBBON OF SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  63  81  64  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
KAEX  81  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  80  63  81  64  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221213
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
713 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY NOON OR SO PER FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO GIVE ADDITIONAL THOUGHT TO FOG POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND A
SHALLOW RIBBON OF SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  82  64  81  65  81 /  30  10  10  10  20
KAEX  80  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  79  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220940
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  82  64  81  65  81 /  30  10  10  10  20
KAEX  80  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  79  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

69





000
FXUS64 KLCH 220940
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  82  64  81  65  81 /  30  10  10  10  20
KAEX  80  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  79  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

69






000
FXUS64 KLCH 220502
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
22/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES TO FCST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AS WEAK FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. OUTFLOW BASED BAND
OF TSTMS ACRS NRN LA INTO E TX CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THIS EVENING.
HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT GETS
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT STILL COULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SHOWERS
REACH KAEX BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DISSIPATES SO INCLUDED VCSH AFTER
08Z HERE. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TWEAK FOG POTENTIAL AS
LATEST SREF PROGS/NAM TIME HTS SHOW LOW CLOUDS MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP RATHER THAN FOG. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS
GUIDANCE THE PAST NIGHT OR TWO HAS LEANED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...AND WINDS COULD LIGHTEN ENOUGH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TO ALLOW VISBYS TO DROP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING NWLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  62  82 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83 /  30  30  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 220502
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
22/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES TO FCST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AS WEAK FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO CROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. OUTFLOW BASED BAND
OF TSTMS ACRS NRN LA INTO E TX CONTINUES TO SLIDE SE THIS EVENING.
HI RES MODELS SHOW THIS BAND WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT GETS
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT STILL COULD AT LEAST SEE SOME SHOWERS
REACH KAEX BEFORE IT COMPLETELY DISSIPATES SO INCLUDED VCSH AFTER
08Z HERE. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TWEAK FOG POTENTIAL AS
LATEST SREF PROGS/NAM TIME HTS SHOW LOW CLOUDS MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP RATHER THAN FOG. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS
GUIDANCE THE PAST NIGHT OR TWO HAS LEANED IN THIS DIRECTION AS
WELL...AND WINDS COULD LIGHTEN ENOUGH AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TO ALLOW VISBYS TO DROP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING NWLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  62  82 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83 /  30  30  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 220308
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1008 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATE...
STORMS THIS EVE EXTEND FROM S OF DFW OVR TO SHV AND INTO SRN
ARKANSAS. THIS STORMS ARE SLWLY MARCHING TO THE S THIS EVE. ON
THIS COURSE AND SPD SVRL WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MOV
INTO CNTRL LA AND SE TX LAKE REGION BEFORE FALLING APART DRG THE
OVRNGHT HRS.

STORMS ARE BEING PUSHED BY THE OUTFLOW BNDRY AS THE FRNT IS
HANGING BACK TO THE NW. THE FRNT ON ITS COURSE AND SPD THAT SHLD
MAKE THE LA CSTL WTRS BY TUE AFTN... WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE
N. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY UPDATES ATTM.

THE REAL EVENT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FORMING DRG THE
OVRNGHT HRS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL DROP
VSBY TO LESS THAN ONE MILE IN SOME LCTNS. CONDS TO HOLD THRU SR
BEFORE IMPROVING. TMRW LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TDY W/ A BIT
MORE CLDS ON N WNDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
22/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
WITH HEATING WANING...AFTN CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TOWARD 06Z RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LT SW WINDS AHEAD
OF IT. EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...VISBYS COULD LOWER TO IFR OCCASIONALLY
TOWARD 12Z SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WLY AFTER 12Z...THEN NWLY BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. FOG WILL LIFT WITH FROPA...WITH CIGS ALSO EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY...BUT COVG SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT HELPING TO GIVE THE COLD FRONT A PUSH TO THE EAST AND
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS DECENT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...ALONG WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (AGAIN ONLY 30 PERCENT) FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
LIGHT WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BEING ALLOWED TO COOL TO NEAR THE DEW POINT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BY-PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...STALLING THE NEXT FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MAY AID IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE IN
LINE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
BRINGING IN A HEALTHY STORM SYSTEM...BUT THAT IS DAY 7 TO 8.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST THEN WASH-OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83  63 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220308
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1008 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATE...
STORMS THIS EVE EXTEND FROM S OF DFW OVR TO SHV AND INTO SRN
ARKANSAS. THIS STORMS ARE SLWLY MARCHING TO THE S THIS EVE. ON
THIS COURSE AND SPD SVRL WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MOV
INTO CNTRL LA AND SE TX LAKE REGION BEFORE FALLING APART DRG THE
OVRNGHT HRS.

STORMS ARE BEING PUSHED BY THE OUTFLOW BNDRY AS THE FRNT IS
HANGING BACK TO THE NW. THE FRNT ON ITS COURSE AND SPD THAT SHLD
MAKE THE LA CSTL WTRS BY TUE AFTN... WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE
N. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY UPDATES ATTM.

THE REAL EVENT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FORMING DRG THE
OVRNGHT HRS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL DROP
VSBY TO LESS THAN ONE MILE IN SOME LCTNS. CONDS TO HOLD THRU SR
BEFORE IMPROVING. TMRW LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TDY W/ A BIT
MORE CLDS ON N WNDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
22/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
WITH HEATING WANING...AFTN CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TOWARD 06Z RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LT SW WINDS AHEAD
OF IT. EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...VISBYS COULD LOWER TO IFR OCCASIONALLY
TOWARD 12Z SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WLY AFTER 12Z...THEN NWLY BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. FOG WILL LIFT WITH FROPA...WITH CIGS ALSO EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY...BUT COVG SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT HELPING TO GIVE THE COLD FRONT A PUSH TO THE EAST AND
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS DECENT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...ALONG WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (AGAIN ONLY 30 PERCENT) FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
LIGHT WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BEING ALLOWED TO COOL TO NEAR THE DEW POINT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BY-PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...STALLING THE NEXT FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MAY AID IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE IN
LINE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
BRINGING IN A HEALTHY STORM SYSTEM...BUT THAT IS DAY 7 TO 8.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST THEN WASH-OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83  63 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 220303
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1003 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS THIS EVE EXTEND FROM S OF DFW OVR TO SHV AND INTO SRN
ARKANSAS. THIS STORMS ARE SLWLY MARCHING TO THE S THIS EVE. ON
THIS COURSE AND SPD SVRL WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MOV
INTO CNTRL LA AND SE TX LAKE REGION BEFORE FALLING APART DRG THE
OVRNGHT HRS. THIS BNDRY WILL CONT TO THE CST W/ WINDS SWINGING
AROUND TO THE N THRU THE DAY TMRW.


STORMS ARE BEING PUSHED BY THE OUTFLOW BNDRY AS THE FRNT IS
HANGING WELL BACK TO THE NW. THE FRNT ON ITS COURSE AND SPD THAT
SHLD MAKE THE LA CSTL WTRS BY SR ON WED MRNG. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY UPDATES ATTM.

THE REAL EVENT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FORMING DRG THE
OVRNGHT HRS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL DROP
VSBY TO LESS THAN ONE MILE IN SOME LCTNS. CONDS TO HOLD THRU SR
BEFORE IMPROVING. TMRW LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TDY W/ A BIT
MORE CLDS ON N WNDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
22/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
WITH HEATING WANING...AFTN CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TOWARD 06Z RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LT SW WINDS AHEAD
OF IT. EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...VISBYS COULD LOWER TO IFR OCCASIONALLY
TOWARD 12Z SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WLY AFTER 12Z...THEN NWLY BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. FOG WILL LIFT WITH FROPA...WITH CIGS ALSO EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY...BUT COVG SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT HELPING TO GIVE THE COLD FRONT A PUSH TO THE EAST AND
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS DECENT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...ALONG WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (AGAIN ONLY 30 PERCENT) FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
LIGHT WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BEING ALLOWED TO COOL TO NEAR THE DEW POINT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BY-PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...STALLING THE NEXT FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MAY AID IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE IN
LINE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
BRINGING IN A HEALTHY STORM SYSTEM...BUT THAT IS DAY 7 TO 8.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST THEN WASH-OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83  63 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220303
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1003 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS THIS EVE EXTEND FROM S OF DFW OVR TO SHV AND INTO SRN
ARKANSAS. THIS STORMS ARE SLWLY MARCHING TO THE S THIS EVE. ON
THIS COURSE AND SPD SVRL WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MOV
INTO CNTRL LA AND SE TX LAKE REGION BEFORE FALLING APART DRG THE
OVRNGHT HRS. THIS BNDRY WILL CONT TO THE CST W/ WINDS SWINGING
AROUND TO THE N THRU THE DAY TMRW.


STORMS ARE BEING PUSHED BY THE OUTFLOW BNDRY AS THE FRNT IS
HANGING WELL BACK TO THE NW. THE FRNT ON ITS COURSE AND SPD THAT
SHLD MAKE THE LA CSTL WTRS BY SR ON WED MRNG. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY UPDATES ATTM.

THE REAL EVENT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FORMING DRG THE
OVRNGHT HRS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL DROP
VSBY TO LESS THAN ONE MILE IN SOME LCTNS. CONDS TO HOLD THRU SR
BEFORE IMPROVING. TMRW LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY OF TDY W/ A BIT
MORE CLDS ON N WNDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
22/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
WITH HEATING WANING...AFTN CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TOWARD 06Z RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LT SW WINDS AHEAD
OF IT. EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...VISBYS COULD LOWER TO IFR OCCASIONALLY
TOWARD 12Z SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WLY AFTER 12Z...THEN NWLY BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. FOG WILL LIFT WITH FROPA...WITH CIGS ALSO EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY...BUT COVG SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT HELPING TO GIVE THE COLD FRONT A PUSH TO THE EAST AND
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS DECENT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...ALONG WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (AGAIN ONLY 30 PERCENT) FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
LIGHT WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BEING ALLOWED TO COOL TO NEAR THE DEW POINT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BY-PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...STALLING THE NEXT FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MAY AID IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE IN
LINE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
BRINGING IN A HEALTHY STORM SYSTEM...BUT THAT IS DAY 7 TO 8.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST THEN WASH-OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83  63 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 212359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
659 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
22/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
WITH HEATING WANING...AFTN CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TOWARD 06Z RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LT SW WINDS AHEAD
OF IT. EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...VISBYS COULD LOWER TO IFR OCCASIONALLY
TOWARD 12Z SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WLY AFTER 12Z...THEN NWLY BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. FOG WILL LIFT WITH FROPA...WITH CIGS ALSO EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY...BUT COVG SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT HELPING TO GIVE THE COLD FRONT A PUSH TO THE EAST AND
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS DECENT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...ALONG WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (AGAIN ONLY 30 PERCENT) FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
LIGHT WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BEING ALLOWED TO COOL TO NEAR THE DEW POINT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BY-PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...STALLING THE NEXT FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MAY AID IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE IN
LINE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
BRINGING IN A HEALTHY STORM SYSTEM...BUT THAT IS DAY 7 TO 8.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST THEN WASH-OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  62  82 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83 /  30  30  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 212359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
659 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
22/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
WITH HEATING WANING...AFTN CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TOWARD 06Z RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LT SW WINDS AHEAD
OF IT. EXPECT WINDS TO LIGHTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO FORM
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...VISBYS COULD LOWER TO IFR OCCASIONALLY
TOWARD 12Z SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WLY AFTER 12Z...THEN NWLY BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. FOG WILL LIFT WITH FROPA...WITH CIGS ALSO EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY...BUT COVG SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE SO DID NOT INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT HELPING TO GIVE THE COLD FRONT A PUSH TO THE EAST AND
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS DECENT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...ALONG WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (AGAIN ONLY 30 PERCENT) FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
LIGHT WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BEING ALLOWED TO COOL TO NEAR THE DEW POINT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BY-PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...STALLING THE NEXT FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MAY AID IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE IN
LINE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
BRINGING IN A HEALTHY STORM SYSTEM...BUT THAT IS DAY 7 TO 8.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST THEN WASH-OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  62  82 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83 /  30  30  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 211957
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT HELPING TO GIVE THE COLD FRONT A PUSH TO THE EAST AND
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS DECENT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...ALONG WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (AGAIN ONLY 30 PERCENT) FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
LIGHT WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BEING ALLOWED TO COOL TO NEAR THE DEW POINT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BY-PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...STALLING THE NEXT FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MAY AID IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE IN
LINE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
BRINGING IN A HEALTHY STORM SYSTEM...BUT THAT IS DAY 7 TO 8.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST THEN WASH-OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83  63 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211957
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS NOTED WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT HELPING TO GIVE THE COLD FRONT A PUSH TO THE EAST AND
NEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS DECENT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER...FRONTAL LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS WEAK...ALONG WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE RANGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE (AGAIN ONLY 30 PERCENT) FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
LIGHT WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND AIR TEMPERATURES AGAIN
BEING ALLOWED TO COOL TO NEAR THE DEW POINT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BY-PASS THE REGION TO THE NORTH
ON THURSDAY...STALLING THE NEXT FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING. THIS WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
MAY AID IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING
DAYTIME HEATING. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE IN
LINE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE
BRINGING IN A HEALTHY STORM SYSTEM...BUT THAT IS DAY 7 TO 8.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST THEN WASH-OUT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  64  83  63  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  61  80  60  83  63 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  61  81  64  82  65 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 211726
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1226 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SEEING FEW TO
SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND JUST A BIT
OF ALTOCU IN SOME AREAS. THIS OVERALL TREND AND VFR SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING TONIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR
THE COAST. STRATUS WITHIN MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SLIPPING DOWN BRIEFLY INTO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...FOG HAS LIFTED AND HAVE LET
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9 AM LOCAL. REMAINDER OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE WARM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE GRID BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
SITES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF SHORTLY WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A VFR DAY WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER DOMINATING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO WANE...LEAVING
BEHIND ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH JUST
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO LINGER WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE. MAIN CONCERN WAS
LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SHARP DROP IN VISIBILITIES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. DENSE FOG
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A BIT DURING THE ADVISORY TIMES. DENSE FOG
SHOULD DISIPATE BY 9 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  62  81  63  80 /  10  20  20  10  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60  82 /  10  30  30  10  10
KLFT  80  61  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211726
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1226 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SEEING FEW TO
SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND JUST A BIT
OF ALTOCU IN SOME AREAS. THIS OVERALL TREND AND VFR SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING TONIGHT. THIS AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR
THE COAST. STRATUS WITHIN MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SLIPPING DOWN BRIEFLY INTO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...FOG HAS LIFTED AND HAVE LET
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9 AM LOCAL. REMAINDER OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE WARM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE GRID BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
SITES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF SHORTLY WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A VFR DAY WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER DOMINATING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO WANE...LEAVING
BEHIND ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH JUST
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO LINGER WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE. MAIN CONCERN WAS
LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SHARP DROP IN VISIBILITIES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. DENSE FOG
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A BIT DURING THE ADVISORY TIMES. DENSE FOG
SHOULD DISIPATE BY 9 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  62  81  63  80 /  10  20  20  10  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60  82 /  10  30  30  10  10
KLFT  80  61  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 211449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...FOG HAS LIFTED AND HAVE LET
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9 AM LOCAL. REMAINDER OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE WARM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE GRID BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
SITES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF SHORTLY WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A VFR DAY WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER DOMINATING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO WANE...LEAVING
BEHIND ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH JUST
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO LINGER WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE. MAIN CONCERN WAS
LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SHARP DROP IN VISIBILITIES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. DENSE FOG
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A BIT DURING THE ADVISORY TIMES. DENSE FOG
SHOULD DISIPATE BY 9 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  62  81  63  80 /  10  20  20  10  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60  82 /  10  30  30  10  10
KLFT  80  61  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 211449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...FOG HAS LIFTED AND HAVE LET
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9 AM LOCAL. REMAINDER OF THE DAY
SHOULD BE WARM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE GRID BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
SITES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF SHORTLY WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A VFR DAY WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER DOMINATING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO WANE...LEAVING
BEHIND ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH JUST
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO LINGER WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE. MAIN CONCERN WAS
LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SHARP DROP IN VISIBILITIES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. DENSE FOG
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A BIT DURING THE ADVISORY TIMES. DENSE FOG
SHOULD DISIPATE BY 9 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  62  81  63  80 /  10  20  20  10  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60  82 /  10  30  30  10  10
KLFT  80  61  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
SITES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF SHORTLY WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A VFR DAY WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER DOMINATING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO WANE...LEAVING
BEHIND ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH JUST
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO LINGER WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE. MAIN CONCERN WAS
LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SHARP DROP IN VISIBILITIES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. DENSE FOG
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A BIT DURING THE ADVISORY TIMES. DENSE FOG
SHOULD DISIPATE BY 9 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  62  81  63  80 /  10  20  20  10  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60  82 /  10  30  30  10  10
KLFT  81  61  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 211211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
SITES WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BURN OFF SHORTLY WITH THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THEREAFTER EXPECTING A VFR DAY WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER DOMINATING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO WANE...LEAVING
BEHIND ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WITH JUST
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO LINGER WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE. MAIN CONCERN WAS
LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SHARP DROP IN VISIBILITIES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. DENSE FOG
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A BIT DURING THE ADVISORY TIMES. DENSE FOG
SHOULD DISIPATE BY 9 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  62  81  63  80 /  10  20  20  10  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60  82 /  10  30  30  10  10
KLFT  81  61  81  63  81 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211150
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE. MAIN CONCERN WAS
LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SHARP DROP IN VISIBILITIES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. DENSE FOG
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A BIT DURING THE ADVISORY TIMES. DENSE FOG
SHOULD DISIPATE BY 9 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63 /  10  20  20  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60 /  10  30  30  10
KLFT  81  61  81  63 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ACADIA-
     CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR JEFFERSON-
     ORANGE.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06







000
FXUS64 KLCH 211150
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR AREA FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES TO LAFAYETTE. MAIN CONCERN WAS
LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
A SHARP DROP IN VISIBILITIES OVER A SHORT TIME PERIOD. DENSE FOG
MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN A BIT DURING THE ADVISORY TIMES. DENSE FOG
SHOULD DISIPATE BY 9 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63 /  10  20  20  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60 /  10  30  30  10
KLFT  81  61  81  63 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ACADIA-
     CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR JEFFERSON-
     ORANGE.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 210819
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63 /  10  20  20  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60 /  10  30  30  10
KLFT  81  61  81  63 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 210819
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
319 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SETTING UP AGAIN FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT EAST TO
SHORT OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. GOES-E/MODIS MVFR PRODUCT SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW VISIBILITY FOR DEVELOPING IN THE
BPT AREA WHICH LATEST OBSERVATION CONFIRM THAT TREND...AND ANOTHER
AREA FROM LAKE CHARLES TO NEAR LAFAYETTE. THEREFORE...ASKING FOLKS
TO DRIVE CAREFULLY THIS MORNING IF YOUR DRIVING IN THESE AREAS.

NOW...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP FOR THE REGION DESPITE SOME
MORNING FOG. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS MOVED
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWESTERLY UNSTABLE FLOW TO
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO TUESDAY AREAWIDE AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE WEAK FRONT MAY GET DOWN TO THE I-10
CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING AND WASHING OUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DYNAMICS ARE BEST WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TUESDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNAFFECTED DUE
TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN...AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. SO...MORE OR LESS...WE ARE JUST TALKING A BRIEF
WINDSHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW OR NON EXISTENT DUE TO WEAK DYNAMICS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL TRIGGER.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT MORE PROMISING AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGIN TO
RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY OUT
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...GUIDANCE DOES AT LEAST SHOW POPS
INCREASING.

TO SUM UP THINGS...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
WARM WITH LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WE MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LETHARGIC AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS
STUBBORNLY OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN SEAS WILL TAKE PLACE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  10
KBPT  80  63  81  63 /  10  20  20  10
KAEX  83  60  81  60 /  10  30  30  10
KLFT  81  61  81  63 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06







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