Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KLCH 281130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  55  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 281130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  55  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  55  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. SOUTH WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESUME DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK
AND THEREFORE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  55  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 280946
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
446 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST WILL WASH OUT
LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF.
FAIR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH AND A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. CHANCES FOR RAIN MOVE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHADED TEMPS HIGHER TODAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE EAST COMBINE TO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA
WITH A LACK OF CLOUD COVER. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...MINIMIZING THE
EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  52  78  59 /  10   0  10  10
LCH  77  56  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  77  53  80  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  78  57  79  63 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 280409
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PACKAGE WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW RIDGING OVER THE REGION ADVANCES
EAST.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. JUST A MINOR NUDGE TO FCST LOWS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 280409
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PACKAGE WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW RIDGING OVER THE REGION ADVANCES
EAST.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. JUST A MINOR NUDGE TO FCST LOWS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 280409
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PACKAGE WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW RIDGING OVER THE REGION ADVANCES
EAST.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. JUST A MINOR NUDGE TO FCST LOWS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 280409
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PACKAGE WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW RIDGING OVER THE REGION ADVANCES
EAST.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. JUST A MINOR NUDGE TO FCST LOWS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 280310
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1010 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. JUST A MINOR NUDGE TO FCST LOWS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 280310
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1010 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS ON TARGET. JUST A MINOR NUDGE TO FCST LOWS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 272109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  48  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER




000
FXUS64 KLCH 272109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  48  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 272109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  48  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 272109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 70S. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK THIS EVENING BECOMING
LESS THAN 10 MPH. TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S TOWARDS SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING TOMORROW. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MILD SPRING LIKE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
RAINS RETURN TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  73  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  48  75  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  46  73  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  51  75  58  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER




000
FXUS64 KLCH 271719
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER A FEW CIRRUS MAY BE NOTED ESPECIALLY TOWARD KAEX. NW WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM AND VRB THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOOKS GREAT TO GO FISHING... GOLFING... OR
TAKING IN A GOOD GAME OF SOFTBALL OR BASEBALL. ENJOY

K. KUYPER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

MARINE...TRIMMED BACK THE SCA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING CLOSER TO THE SHORE WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. WILL
GO WITH SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. COASTAL FORECAST
ALREADY UPDATED.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  50  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  47  75  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  52  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 271719
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER A FEW CIRRUS MAY BE NOTED ESPECIALLY TOWARD KAEX. NW WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM AND VRB THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOOKS GREAT TO GO FISHING... GOLFING... OR
TAKING IN A GOOD GAME OF SOFTBALL OR BASEBALL. ENJOY

K. KUYPER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

MARINE...TRIMMED BACK THE SCA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING CLOSER TO THE SHORE WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. WILL
GO WITH SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. COASTAL FORECAST
ALREADY UPDATED.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  50  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  47  75  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  52  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 271719
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER A FEW CIRRUS MAY BE NOTED ESPECIALLY TOWARD KAEX. NW WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM AND VRB THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOOKS GREAT TO GO FISHING... GOLFING... OR
TAKING IN A GOOD GAME OF SOFTBALL OR BASEBALL. ENJOY

K. KUYPER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

MARINE...TRIMMED BACK THE SCA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING CLOSER TO THE SHORE WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. WILL
GO WITH SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. COASTAL FORECAST
ALREADY UPDATED.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  50  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  47  75  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  52  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 271719
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER A FEW CIRRUS MAY BE NOTED ESPECIALLY TOWARD KAEX. NW WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM AND VRB THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOOKS GREAT TO GO FISHING... GOLFING... OR
TAKING IN A GOOD GAME OF SOFTBALL OR BASEBALL. ENJOY

K. KUYPER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

MARINE...TRIMMED BACK THE SCA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING CLOSER TO THE SHORE WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. WILL
GO WITH SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. COASTAL FORECAST
ALREADY UPDATED.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  50  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  47  75  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  52  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 271545
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOOKS GREAT TO GO FISHING... GOLFING... OR
TAKING IN A GOOD GAME OF SOFTBALL OR BASEBALL. ENJOY

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

MARINE...TRIMMED BACK THE SCA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING CLOSER TO THE SHORE WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. WILL
GO WITH SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. COASTAL FORECAST
ALREADY UPDATED.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  44  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  73  50  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  47  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  74  52  76  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 271545
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOOKS GREAT TO GO FISHING... GOLFING... OR
TAKING IN A GOOD GAME OF SOFTBALL OR BASEBALL. ENJOY

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

MARINE...TRIMMED BACK THE SCA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING CLOSER TO THE SHORE WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. WILL
GO WITH SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. COASTAL FORECAST
ALREADY UPDATED.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  44  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  73  50  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  47  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  74  52  76  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 271545
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S.
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOOKS GREAT TO GO FISHING... GOLFING... OR
TAKING IN A GOOD GAME OF SOFTBALL OR BASEBALL. ENJOY

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

MARINE...TRIMMED BACK THE SCA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING CLOSER TO THE SHORE WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. WILL
GO WITH SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. COASTAL FORECAST
ALREADY UPDATED.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  44  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  73  50  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  47  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  74  52  76  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 271253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.MARINE...TRIMMED BACK THE SCA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING CLOER TO THE SHORE WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. WILL GO
WITH SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. COASTAL FORECAST
ALREADY UPDATED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  44  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  73  50  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  47  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  74  52  76  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 271253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.MARINE...TRIMMED BACK THE SCA FROM THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS ARE
DIMINISHING CLOER TO THE SHORE WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. WILL GO
WITH SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY AND FOR THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON. COASTAL FORECAST
ALREADY UPDATED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  44  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  73  50  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  47  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  74  52  76  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ452-470.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 271125
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  44  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  73  50  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  47  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  74  52  76  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-
     470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 270825
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ARE WORKING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NW HALF OF THE
REGION FALLING INTO THE 40S. UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND MILD WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE PROGS FROM GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME SHORT WAVES EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW... WILL GENERALLY KEEP 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.



&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES TO SCA HAZARDS FOR NOW.  MODELS INCLUDING LATER
HRRR CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING.
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH A MODEST TIGHTENING OF GRADIENT ESPECIALLY OVER SE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS TIME...NO SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  44  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  73  50  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  71  47  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  74  52  76  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 270521
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE CLEARING A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THUS...MINOR EDITS ONLY TO 00Z PACKAGE TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO REMAINING A LITTLE HIGHER AND GUSTIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...SO THESE WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD. VFR TO
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. FAIRLY BRISK NNW TO N WINDS ~15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WITH 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH PRECIP REMAINING AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THUS...ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE TO
NEARTERM FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HRS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AT TIMES FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  50  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  47  75  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  52  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 270521
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE CLEARING A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THUS...MINOR EDITS ONLY TO 00Z PACKAGE TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO REMAINING A LITTLE HIGHER AND GUSTIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...SO THESE WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD. VFR TO
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. FAIRLY BRISK NNW TO N WINDS ~15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WITH 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH PRECIP REMAINING AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THUS...ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE TO
NEARTERM FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HRS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AT TIMES FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  50  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  47  75  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  52  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 270521
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE CLEARING A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THUS...MINOR EDITS ONLY TO 00Z PACKAGE TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO REMAINING A LITTLE HIGHER AND GUSTIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...SO THESE WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD. VFR TO
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. FAIRLY BRISK NNW TO N WINDS ~15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WITH 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH PRECIP REMAINING AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THUS...ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE TO
NEARTERM FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HRS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AT TIMES FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  50  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  47  75  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  52  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 270521
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE CLEARING A LITTLE BEHIND SCHEDULE...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
THUS...MINOR EDITS ONLY TO 00Z PACKAGE TO ADJUST THE TIMING.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO REMAINING A LITTLE HIGHER AND GUSTIER
THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...SO THESE WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD. VFR TO
PREVAIL ON FRIDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. FAIRLY BRISK NNW TO N WINDS ~15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WITH 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH PRECIP REMAINING AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THUS...ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE TO
NEARTERM FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HRS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AT TIMES FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  44  75  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  50  76  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  47  75  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  52  76  58  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ455-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-
     470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 270152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
852 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. FAIRLY BRISK NNW TO N WINDS ~15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WITH 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH PRECIP REMAINING AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THUS...ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE TO
NEARTERM FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HRS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AT TIMES FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  68  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  47  71  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  45  69  47  75 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  48  72  52  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08





000
FXUS64 KLCH 270152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
852 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. FAIRLY BRISK NNW TO N WINDS ~15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH HAS BEEN OBSERVED...WITH 20-25 KTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. NOT MUCH PRECIP REMAINING AS MOST OF THE ENERGY
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. THUS...ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE TO
NEARTERM FORECAST THIS EVENING...WITH REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HRS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AT TIMES FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  68  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  47  71  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  45  69  47  75 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  48  72  52  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08




000
FXUS64 KLCH 270049
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
749 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HRS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AT TIMES FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  68  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  47  71  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  45  69  47  75 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  48  72  52  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 270049
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
749 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HRS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AT TIMES FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  68  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  47  71  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  45  69  47  75 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  48  72  52  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 270049
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
749 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED THRU THE TERMINALS AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HRS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. USED A BLEND OF LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AT TIMES FOR IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  68  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  47  71  50  76 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  45  69  47  75 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  48  72  52  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 262126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  70  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  46  73  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  45  71  47  76 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  48  73  52  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 262126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  70  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  46  73  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  45  71  47  76 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  48  73  52  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER




000
FXUS64 KLCH 262126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MORNING LOWS EXPECTED BACK INTO THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH COOL MORNING LOWS AND MILD AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
RAINS TO RETURN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  42  70  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  46  73  50  75 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  45  71  47  76 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  48  73  52  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261915
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
215 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
26/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ACADIANA TERMINALS THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHRA CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT ARA/LFT THROUGH THE AFTN. MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500
FT WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING
FM WEST TO EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NLY AS THEY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW TODAY WITH THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE LAKES
THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MAKE THE COAST BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. OTHERWISE... CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON A DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GREAT SPRING WEEKEND
ON TAP. ZONES ARE FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF ON
TSTMS AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH -RA OR VCSH. WINDS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT FOR MVFR FOG OR CIGS AT LCH AND AEX THIS
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT BPT.

ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE MVFR MOVING INTO LFT AND ARA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP SHOULD END AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR OVERRUNNING CIGS INTO TNITE.
CLEARING TO CAVOK LATER TNITE.

11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...OTHERWISE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS IS NOW.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS TO WACO. STORMY
ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS.

THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TO ARRIVE IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 AM...BEAUMONT BEFORE
NOON...LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AFTER 1 PM...AND LAFAYETTE
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST ACCORDING TO THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH MODEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

SURFACE BASED LIFT WITH WILL BE MAXIMIZED OR CORRELATED
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE...IF
THERE WERE TO BE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA WHERE ONE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SOME
POTENTIAL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW SO
I WILL ONLY MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION TO KEEP OUR DAYSHIFT ON TOP
OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THEREFORE...TAKE AN UMBRELLA TODAY
IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
MOST RAIN TO BE GONE FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER THIN IN WIDTH...I.E
RAIN WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT BUT CALM DOWN BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST DRY FLOW TO DRIVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH STABLE AND
MILD CONDITIONS. GREAT WEEKEND COMING.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOWER SIDE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH PATTERN EMERGES ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR FOR NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WILL NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH & WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE TAPERED OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG THESE LINES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  42  70  44 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  72  48 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  74  45  69  48 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  73  48  73  51 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261915
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
215 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
26/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ACADIANA TERMINALS THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHRA CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY AT ARA/LFT THROUGH THE AFTN. MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500
FT WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING
FM WEST TO EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NLY AS THEY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW TODAY WITH THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE LAKES
THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MAKE THE COAST BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. OTHERWISE... CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON A DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GREAT SPRING WEEKEND
ON TAP. ZONES ARE FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF ON
TSTMS AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH -RA OR VCSH. WINDS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT FOR MVFR FOG OR CIGS AT LCH AND AEX THIS
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT BPT.

ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE MVFR MOVING INTO LFT AND ARA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP SHOULD END AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR OVERRUNNING CIGS INTO TNITE.
CLEARING TO CAVOK LATER TNITE.

11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...OTHERWISE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS IS NOW.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS TO WACO. STORMY
ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS.

THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TO ARRIVE IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 AM...BEAUMONT BEFORE
NOON...LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AFTER 1 PM...AND LAFAYETTE
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST ACCORDING TO THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH MODEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

SURFACE BASED LIFT WITH WILL BE MAXIMIZED OR CORRELATED
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE...IF
THERE WERE TO BE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA WHERE ONE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SOME
POTENTIAL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW SO
I WILL ONLY MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION TO KEEP OUR DAYSHIFT ON TOP
OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THEREFORE...TAKE AN UMBRELLA TODAY
IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
MOST RAIN TO BE GONE FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER THIN IN WIDTH...I.E
RAIN WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT BUT CALM DOWN BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST DRY FLOW TO DRIVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH STABLE AND
MILD CONDITIONS. GREAT WEEKEND COMING.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOWER SIDE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH PATTERN EMERGES ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR FOR NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WILL NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH & WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE TAPERED OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG THESE LINES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  42  70  44 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  72  48 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  74  45  69  48 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  73  48  73  51 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 261515
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW TODAY WITH THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE LAKES
THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MAKE THE COAST BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. OTHERWISE... CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON A DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GREAT SPRING WEEKEND
ON TAP. ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF ON
TSTMS AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH -RA OR VCSH. WINDS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT FOR MVFR FOG OR CIGS AT LCH AND AEX THIS
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT BPT.

ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE MVFR MOVING INTO LFT AND ARA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP SHOULD END AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR OVERRUNNING CIGS INTO TNITE.
CLEARING TO CAVOK LATER TNITE.

11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...OTHERWISE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS IS NOW.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS TO WACO. STORMY
ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS.

THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TO ARRIVE IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 AM...BEAUMONT BEFORE
NOON...LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AFTER 1 PM...AND LAFAYETTE
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST ACCORDING TO THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH MODEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

SURFACE BASED LIFT WITH WILL BE MAXIMIZED OR CORRELATED
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE...IF
THERE WERE TO BE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA WHERE ONE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SOME
POTENTIAL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW SO
I WILL ONLY MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION TO KEEP OUR DAYSHIFT ON TOP
OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THEREFORE...TAKE AN UMBRELLA TODAY
IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
MOST RAIN TO BE GONE FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER THIN IN WIDTH...I.E
RAIN WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT BUT CALM DOWN BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST DRY FLOW TO DRIVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH STABLE AND
MILD CONDITIONS. GREAT WEEKEND COMING.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOWER SIDE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH PATTERN EMERGES ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR FOR NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WILL NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH & WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE TAPERED OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG THESE LINES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  42  70  44 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  72  48 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  74  45  69  48 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  73  48  73  51 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 261515
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW TODAY WITH THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE LAKES
THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MAKE THE COAST BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING. OTHERWISE... CLOUDS
SHOULD BE ON A DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GREAT SPRING WEEKEND
ON TAP. ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF ON
TSTMS AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH -RA OR VCSH. WINDS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT FOR MVFR FOG OR CIGS AT LCH AND AEX THIS
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT BPT.

ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE MVFR MOVING INTO LFT AND ARA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP SHOULD END AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR OVERRUNNING CIGS INTO TNITE.
CLEARING TO CAVOK LATER TNITE.

11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...OTHERWISE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS IS NOW.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS TO WACO. STORMY
ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS.

THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TO ARRIVE IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 AM...BEAUMONT BEFORE
NOON...LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AFTER 1 PM...AND LAFAYETTE
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST ACCORDING TO THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH MODEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

SURFACE BASED LIFT WITH WILL BE MAXIMIZED OR CORRELATED
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE...IF
THERE WERE TO BE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA WHERE ONE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SOME
POTENTIAL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW SO
I WILL ONLY MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION TO KEEP OUR DAYSHIFT ON TOP
OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THEREFORE...TAKE AN UMBRELLA TODAY
IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
MOST RAIN TO BE GONE FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER THIN IN WIDTH...I.E
RAIN WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT BUT CALM DOWN BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST DRY FLOW TO DRIVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH STABLE AND
MILD CONDITIONS. GREAT WEEKEND COMING.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOWER SIDE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH PATTERN EMERGES ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR FOR NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WILL NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH & WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE TAPERED OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG THESE LINES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  42  70  44 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  72  48 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  74  45  69  48 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  73  48  73  51 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261159
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF ON
TSTMS AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH -RA OR VCSH. WINDS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT FOR MVFR FOG OR CIGS AT LCH AND AEX THIS
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT BPT.

ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE MVFR MOVING INTO LFT AND ARA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP SHOULD END AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR OVERRUNNING CIGS INTO TNITE.
CLEARING TO CAVOK LATER TNITE.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...OTHERWISE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS IS NOW.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS TO WACO. STORMY
ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS.

THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TO ARRIVE IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 AM...BEAUMONT BEFORE
NOON...LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AFTER 1 PM...AND LAFAYETTE
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST ACCORDING TO THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH MODEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

SURFACE BASED LIFT WITH WILL BE MAXIMIZED OR CORRELATED
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE...IF
THERE WERE TO BE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA WHERE ONE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SOME
POTENTIAL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW SO
I WILL ONLY MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION TO KEEP OUR DAYSHIFT ON TOP
OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THEREFORE...TAKE AN UMBRELLA TODAY
IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
MOST RAIN TO BE GONE FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER THIN IN WIDTH...I.E
RAIN WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT BUT CALM DOWN BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST DRY FLOW TO DRIVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH STABLE AND
MILD CONDITIONS. GREAT WEEKEND COMING.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOWER SIDE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH PATTERN EMERGES ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR FOR NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WILL NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH & WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE TAPERED OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG THESE LINES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  42  70  44 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  72  48 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  74  45  69  48 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  73  48  73  51 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 261159
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF ON
TSTMS AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH -RA OR VCSH. WINDS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT FOR MVFR FOG OR CIGS AT LCH AND AEX THIS
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT BPT.

ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE MVFR MOVING INTO LFT AND ARA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP SHOULD END AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR OVERRUNNING CIGS INTO TNITE.
CLEARING TO CAVOK LATER TNITE.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...OTHERWISE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS IS NOW.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS TO WACO. STORMY
ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS.

THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TO ARRIVE IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 AM...BEAUMONT BEFORE
NOON...LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AFTER 1 PM...AND LAFAYETTE
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST ACCORDING TO THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH MODEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

SURFACE BASED LIFT WITH WILL BE MAXIMIZED OR CORRELATED
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE...IF
THERE WERE TO BE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA WHERE ONE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SOME
POTENTIAL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW SO
I WILL ONLY MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION TO KEEP OUR DAYSHIFT ON TOP
OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THEREFORE...TAKE AN UMBRELLA TODAY
IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
MOST RAIN TO BE GONE FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER THIN IN WIDTH...I.E
RAIN WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT BUT CALM DOWN BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST DRY FLOW TO DRIVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH STABLE AND
MILD CONDITIONS. GREAT WEEKEND COMING.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOWER SIDE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH PATTERN EMERGES ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR FOR NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WILL NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH & WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE TAPERED OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG THESE LINES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  42  70  44 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  72  48 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  74  45  69  48 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  73  48  73  51 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261159
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
659 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATEX AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACKED OFF ON
TSTMS AND PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL GO WITH -RA OR VCSH. WINDS SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT FOR MVFR FOG OR CIGS AT LCH AND AEX THIS
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING IFR
CIGS LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT BPT.

ACADIANA AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE MVFR MOVING INTO LFT AND ARA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP SHOULD END AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR OVERRUNNING CIGS INTO TNITE.
CLEARING TO CAVOK LATER TNITE.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...OTHERWISE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS IS NOW.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS TO WACO. STORMY
ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS.

THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TO ARRIVE IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 AM...BEAUMONT BEFORE
NOON...LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AFTER 1 PM...AND LAFAYETTE
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST ACCORDING TO THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH MODEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

SURFACE BASED LIFT WITH WILL BE MAXIMIZED OR CORRELATED
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE...IF
THERE WERE TO BE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA WHERE ONE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SOME
POTENTIAL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW SO
I WILL ONLY MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION TO KEEP OUR DAYSHIFT ON TOP
OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THEREFORE...TAKE AN UMBRELLA TODAY
IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
MOST RAIN TO BE GONE FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER THIN IN WIDTH...I.E
RAIN WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT BUT CALM DOWN BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST DRY FLOW TO DRIVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH STABLE AND
MILD CONDITIONS. GREAT WEEKEND COMING.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOWER SIDE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH PATTERN EMERGES ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR FOR NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WILL NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH & WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE TAPERED OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG THESE LINES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  42  70  44 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  72  48 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  74  45  69  48 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  73  48  73  51 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 260926
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...OTHERWISE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS IS NOW.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS TO WACO. STORMY
ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS.

THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TO ARRIVE IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 AM...BEAUMONT BEFORE
NOON...LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AFTER 1 PM...AND LAFAYETTE
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST ACCORDING TO THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH MODEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

SURFACE BASED LIFT WITH WILL BE MAXIMIZED OR CORRELATED
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE...IF
THERE WERE TO BE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA WHERE ONE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SOME
POTENTIAL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW SO
I WILL ONLY MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION TO KEEP OUR DAYSHIFT ON TOP
OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THEREFORE...TAKE AN UMBRELLA TODAY
IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
MOST RAIN TO BE GONE FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER THIN IN WIDTH...I.E
RAIN WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT BUT CALM DOWN BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST DRY FLOW TO DRIVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH STABLE AND
MILD CONDITIONS. GREAT WEEKEND COMING.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOWER SIDE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH PATTERN EMERGES ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH & WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE TAPERED OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG THESE LINES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  42  70  44 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  72  48 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  74  45  69  48 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  73  48  73  51 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 260926
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...OTHERWISE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORMS IS NOW.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS MOISTURE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
LOUISIANA.

THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR TYLER TEXAS TO WACO. STORMY
ACTIVITY WAS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PART OF TEXAS.

THE FRONT IS ON TRACK TO TO ARRIVE IN THE INTERIOR SECTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE MORNING AROUND 10 AM...BEAUMONT BEFORE
NOON...LAKE CHARLES AND ALEXANDRIA AFTER 1 PM...AND LAFAYETTE
BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST ACCORDING TO THE HOURLY RAPID
REFRESH MODEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DYNAMICAL ENERGY FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND THEREFORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXTREMELY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

SURFACE BASED LIFT WITH WILL BE MAXIMIZED OR CORRELATED
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICAL SOUNDING PROFILE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE...IF
THERE WERE TO BE AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM I BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE
THE AREA WHERE ONE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH SOME
POTENTIAL BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY IS LOW SO
I WILL ONLY MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION TO KEEP OUR DAYSHIFT ON TOP
OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THEREFORE...TAKE AN UMBRELLA TODAY
IF YOU PLAN TO GO OUT ANYWHERE NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
MOST RAIN TO BE GONE FROM THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
HEAVY RAINS SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER THIN IN WIDTH...I.E
RAIN WILL NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA..BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT BUT CALM DOWN BY THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST DRY FLOW TO DRIVE THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH STABLE AND
MILD CONDITIONS. GREAT WEEKEND COMING.

NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO COME NEXT WEEK BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ON THE LOWER SIDE AS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH PATTERN EMERGES ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. A
WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL NEED TO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT AS WINDS PICK UP AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH & WEST TO EAST FROM 09Z
TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE TAPERED OFF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ALONG THESE LINES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS IS SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  42  70  44 /  50  10   0   0
LCH  73  46  72  48 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  74  45  69  48 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  73  48  73  51 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM CDT
     FRIDAY FOR GMZ455-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ450-452-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 260420
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT WILL INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VCSH BETWEEN 09-12Z FOR AREA
TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 12-18Z THU.
POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT NNW WINDS ~15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KTS THU AFTERNOON.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS. NOT EXPECTING THE STORMS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH
MAINLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN CONCERNS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MAINLY IN GOOD SHAPE AND
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES EAST OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER
W TX WAS RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS SLY WINDS
BRING GULF MOISTURE ACRS SE TX AND SW LA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND
WV IMAGERY SHOWS SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF
CROSSING NM...WITH PAC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE NWRN GULF.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR 60
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACRS INTERIOR SE TX
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SVR AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A COMPROMISE AND BRING A SLT CHC FOR RAIN
BACK INTO THE FCST ON MONDAY...WITH SLT TO LOW END RAIN CHCS
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
AFTN...BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
WEST TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  71  42  70 /  10  50  10   0
LCH  64  73  46  72 /  20  60  10   0
LFT  63  74  45  69 /  10  60  20   0
BPT  64  73  48  73 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08




000
FXUS64 KLCH 260420
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT WILL INCREASE
THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VCSH BETWEEN 09-12Z FOR AREA
TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 12-18Z THU.
POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT NNW WINDS ~15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KTS THU AFTERNOON.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS. NOT EXPECTING THE STORMS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH
MAINLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN CONCERNS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MAINLY IN GOOD SHAPE AND
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES EAST OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER
W TX WAS RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS SLY WINDS
BRING GULF MOISTURE ACRS SE TX AND SW LA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND
WV IMAGERY SHOWS SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF
CROSSING NM...WITH PAC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE NWRN GULF.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR 60
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACRS INTERIOR SE TX
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SVR AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A COMPROMISE AND BRING A SLT CHC FOR RAIN
BACK INTO THE FCST ON MONDAY...WITH SLT TO LOW END RAIN CHCS
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
AFTN...BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
WEST TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  71  42  70 /  10  50  10   0
LCH  64  73  46  72 /  20  60  10   0
LFT  63  74  45  69 /  10  60  20   0
BPT  64  73  48  73 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KLCH 260248
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
948 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS. NOT EXPECTING THE STORMS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH
MAINLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN CONCERNS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MAINLY IN GOOD SHAPE AND
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES EAST OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER
W TX WAS RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS SLY WINDS
BRING GULF MOISTURE ACRS SE TX AND SW LA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND
WV IMAGERY SHOWS SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF
CROSSING NM...WITH PAC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE NWRN GULF.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR 60
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACRS INTERIOR SE TX
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SVR AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A COMPROMISE AND BRING A SLT CHC FOR RAIN
BACK INTO THE FCST ON MONDAY...WITH SLT TO LOW END RAIN CHCS
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
AFTN...BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
WEST TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  71  42  70 /  10  50  10   0
LCH  64  73  46  72 /  20  60  10   0
LFT  63  74  45  69 /  10  60  20   0
BPT  64  73  48  73 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 260248
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
948 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS. NOT EXPECTING THE STORMS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH
MAINLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN CONCERNS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MAINLY IN GOOD SHAPE AND
MADE ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES EAST OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER
W TX WAS RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS SLY WINDS
BRING GULF MOISTURE ACRS SE TX AND SW LA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND
WV IMAGERY SHOWS SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF
CROSSING NM...WITH PAC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE NWRN GULF.

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR 60
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACRS INTERIOR SE TX
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SVR AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A COMPROMISE AND BRING A SLT CHC FOR RAIN
BACK INTO THE FCST ON MONDAY...WITH SLT TO LOW END RAIN CHCS
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
AFTN...BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
WEST TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  71  42  70 /  10  50  10   0
LCH  64  73  46  72 /  20  60  10   0
LFT  63  74  45  69 /  10  60  20   0
BPT  64  73  48  73 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 252126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES EAST OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER
W TX WAS RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS SLY WINDS
BRING GULF MOISTURE ACRS SE TX AND SW LA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND
WV IMAGERY SHOWS SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF
CROSSING NM...WITH PAC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR 60
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACRS INTERIOR SE TX
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SVR AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A COMPROMISE AND BRING A SLT CHC FOR RAIN
BACK INTO THE FCST ON MONDAY...WITH SLT TO LOW END RAIN CHCS
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
AFTN...BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
WEST TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  71  42  70 /  10  50  10   0
LCH  61  73  46  72 /  10  60  10   0
LFT  61  74  45  69 /  10  60  20   0
BPT  63  73  48  73 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24





000
FXUS64 KLCH 252126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES EAST OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER
W TX WAS RESULTING IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AS SLY WINDS
BRING GULF MOISTURE ACRS SE TX AND SW LA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND
WV IMAGERY SHOWS SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROF
CROSSING NM...WITH PAC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS NEAR 60
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACRS INTERIOR SE TX
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SVR AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST ON THURSDAY AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRIER WEATHER AND MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
AS NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.

MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE NEXT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A COMPROMISE AND BRING A SLT CHC FOR RAIN
BACK INTO THE FCST ON MONDAY...WITH SLT TO LOW END RAIN CHCS
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
AFTN...BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER
WEST TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  71  42  70 /  10  50  10   0
LCH  61  73  46  72 /  10  60  10   0
LFT  61  74  45  69 /  10  60  20   0
BPT  63  73  48  73 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities