000
FXUS64 KLCH 181717
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT CLOUDS HAVE BROKE ACRS THE REGION WITH
ALL SITES VFR. THIS WILL HOLD INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS BUT CLOUDS
WILL SPILL BACK IN TWRDS MIDNIGHT AND CONT THRU SR. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY SKY...WIND...TEMP AND
DEWPOINT GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT OBS TRENDS. LATEST OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LOW CLOUDS LIFTING WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY NR 80 DEGREES AS OF 15Z...AND
THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WITH
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE REGION...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTN WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN SLY WINDS AND ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST GULF
AIR WILL MAINTAIN MUGGY CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT, HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH NORTH
FLORIDA TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
FURTHER WEST...A STATIONARY FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDS MERIDIONALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHER-UP...A TROUGH IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN.
DISCUSSION...
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STEER CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MORNING MARINE STRATUS WILL FRAGMENT INTO FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
BY MIDMORNING. THE PREVIOUS VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED A POSSIBLE
SEA BREEZE (OR MARINE PUSH) STARTING IN THE MID AFTERNOON. SKIES
RAPIDLY CLEARED GULFWARD OF THE ONSHORING SEA BREEZE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PINEY
HILLS AND LAKES REGIONS. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
MARINE...
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES. WIND WAVES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 5 SECONDS.
OUTLOOK...
THE SOUTHERLY SEGMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST...ENTERING SOUTHEAST TEXAS/WESTERN
LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY.
THE TRAVELING TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL COME TO A HALT ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 70 83 72 83 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 71 81 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 68 88 71 89 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 71 84 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181540
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1040 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY SKY...WIND...TEMP AND
DEWPOINT GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT OBS TRENDS. LATEST OBS AND
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LOW CLOUDS LIFTING WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY NR 80 DEGREES AS OF 15Z...AND
THIS IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WITH
MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE REGION...EXPECT ABV NORMAL MAX
TEMPS THIS AFTN WITH SUBSIDENCE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN SLY WINDS AND ADVECTION OF WARM MOIST GULF
AIR WILL MAINTAIN MUGGY CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT, HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH NORTH
FLORIDA TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
FURTHER WEST...A STATIONARY FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDS MERIDIONALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHER-UP...A TROUGH IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN.
DISCUSSION...
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STEER CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MORNING MARINE STRATUS WILL FRAGMENT INTO FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
BY MIDMORNING. THE PREVIOUS VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED A POSSIBLE
SEA BREEZE (OR MARINE PUSH) STARTING IN THE MID AFTERNOON. SKIES
RAPIDLY CLEARED GULFWARD OF THE ONSHORING SEA BREEZE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PINEY
HILLS AND LAKES REGIONS. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
MARINE...
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES. WIND WAVES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 5 SECONDS.
OUTLOOK...
THE SOUTHERLY SEGMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST...ENTERING SOUTHEAST TEXAS/WESTERN
LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY.
THE TRAVELING TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL COME TO A HALT ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 69 84 71 / 10 10 10 10
KBPT 86 71 81 73 / 10 10 10 10
KAEX 91 68 88 71 / 10 10 10 10
KLFT 88 70 84 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181127
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT, HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH NORTH
FLORIDA TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
FURTHER WEST...A STATIONARY FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDS MERIDIONALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHER-UP...A TROUGH IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN.
DISCUSSION...
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STEER CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MORNING MARINE STRATUS WILL FRAGMENT INTO FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
BY MIDMORNING. THE PREVIOUS VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED A POSSIBLE
SEA BREEZE (OR MARINE PUSH) STARTING IN THE MID AFTERNOON. SKIES
RAPIDLY CLEARED GULFWARD OF THE ONSHORING SEA BREEZE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PINEY
HILLS AND LAKES REGIONS. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
MARINE...
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES. WIND WAVES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 5 SECONDS.
OUTLOOK...
THE SOUTHERLY SEGMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST...ENTERING SOUTHEAST TEXAS/WESTERN
LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY.
THE TRAVELING TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL COME TO A HALT ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 70 83 72 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 84 71 81 73 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 90 68 88 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 86 71 84 72 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180836
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH NORTH
FLORIDA TO ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
FURTHER WEST...A STATIONARY FRONT/DRY LINE EXTENDS MERIDIONALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FURTHER-UP...A TROUGH IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDS ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STEER CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MORNING MARINE STRATUS WILL FRAGMENT INTO FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS
BY MIDMORNING. THE PREVIOUS VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALED A POSSIBLE
SEA BREEZE (OR MARINE PUSH) STARTING IN THE MID AFTERNOON. SKIES
RAPIDLY CLEARED GULFWARD OF THE ONSHORING SEA BREEZE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PINEY
HILLS AND LAKES REGIONS. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES. WIND WAVES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A PERIOD
AROUND 5 SECONDS.
&&
.OUTLOOK...
THE SOUTHERLY SEGMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST...ENTERING SOUTHEAST TEXAS/WESTERN
LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY.
THE TRAVELING TROUGH WILL BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY
ON WEDNESDAY. THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT WILL COME TO A HALT ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 70 83 72 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 84 71 81 73 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 90 68 88 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
KLFT 86 71 84 72 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
21
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180422
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1122 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR BPT/LCH...AND WILL BECOME PREDOMINATE
FOR LFT/ARA BETWEEN 06-08Z. OTHERWISE...INTERMITTENT IFR
CEILINGS/MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. S WINDS OF 12-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SAT.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY MADE A MINOR CHANGE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER IN THE CLOUD GRID
UP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UNDER THE CAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SCT CEILINGS ~2500-3500FT...WITH S WINDS 8-12 KTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS ~2000-2500FT EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME PREDOMINATE BY MID/LATE EVENING...INTERMITTENT
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...S WINDS OF 12-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SAT.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AFTN UNDERWAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS THE
AREA. SLY WINDS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING
OVER THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO USHER WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN RANGED FM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S
SOUTH TO UPPER 80S NORTH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER
AIR ALOFT...WHILE ANALYSIS OF UPPER FEATURES SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACRS TX.
DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTN WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED WITH
UPPER LVL RIDGING OVER TX TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN
TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT THEN MORE SCT
DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 70S OR
POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 60S. EXPECT A WARM AFTN SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
NR 90 DEGREES. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SWLY ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A SLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT TRAVEL OVER THE AREA. A DAILY SLIGHT OR
LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND AFTN HIGHS IN THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS AT A FEW SITES ACRS CNTL LA INTO THE LAKES
AREA OF TX NR 90.
MARINE...
A GENERALLY MODERATE SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 86 72 86 73 / 10 10 10 10 0
KBPT 71 86 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 69 90 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10 0
KLFT 71 87 72 87 72 / 10 0 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180225
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
925 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY MADE A MINOR CHANGE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER IN THE CLOUD GRID
UP BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
UNDER THE CAP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SCT CEILINGS ~2500-3500FT...WITH S WINDS 8-12 KTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS ~2000-2500FT EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME PREDOMINATE BY MID/LATE EVENING...INTERMITTENT
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...S WINDS OF 12-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SAT.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AFTN UNDERWAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS THE
AREA. SLY WINDS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING
OVER THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO USHER WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN RANGED FM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S
SOUTH TO UPPER 80S NORTH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER
AIR ALOFT...WHILE ANALYSIS OF UPPER FEATURES SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACRS TX.
DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTN WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED WITH
UPPER LVL RIDGING OVER TX TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN
TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT THEN MORE SCT
DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 70S OR
POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 60S. EXPECT A WARM AFTN SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
NR 90 DEGREES. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SWLY ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A SLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT TRAVEL OVER THE AREA. A DAILY SLIGHT OR
LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND AFTN HIGHS IN THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS AT A FEW SITES ACRS CNTL LA INTO THE LAKES
AREA OF TX NR 90.
MARINE...
A GENERALLY MODERATE SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 86 72 86 73 / 10 10 10 10 0
KBPT 71 86 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 69 90 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10 0
KLFT 71 87 72 87 72 / 10 0 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 172327
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT CEILINGS ~2500-3500FT...WITH S WINDS 8-12 KTS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS ~2000-2500FT EXPECTED THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME PREDOMINATE BY MID/LATE EVENING...INTERMITTENT
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...S WINDS OF 12-15
KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z SAT.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AFTN UNDERWAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS THE
AREA. SLY WINDS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING
OVER THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO USHER WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN RANGED FM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S
SOUTH TO UPPER 80S NORTH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER
AIR ALOFT...WHILE ANALYSIS OF UPPER FEATURES SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACRS TX.
DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTN WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED WITH
UPPER LVL RIDGING OVER TX TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN
TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT THEN MORE SCT
DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 70S OR
POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 60S. EXPECT A WARM AFTN SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
NR 90 DEGREES. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SWLY ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A SLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT TRAVEL OVER THE AREA. A DAILY SLIGHT OR
LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND AFTN HIGHS IN THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS AT A FEW SITES ACRS CNTL LA INTO THE LAKES
AREA OF TX NR 90.
MARINE...
A GENERALLY MODERATE SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 86 72 86 73 / 10 10 10 10 0
KBPT 71 86 72 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 69 90 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10 0
KLFT 71 87 72 87 72 / 10 0 10 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 172115
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
415 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AFTN UNDERWAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS THE
AREA. SLY WINDS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING
OVER THE GULF COAST CONTINUE TO USHER WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTN RANGED FM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S
SOUTH TO UPPER 80S NORTH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER
AIR ALOFT...WHILE ANALYSIS OF UPPER FEATURES SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACRS TX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTN WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED WITH
UPPER LVL RIDGING OVER TX TO MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN
TODAY WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT THEN MORE SCT
DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE LOWER 70S OR
POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 60S. EXPECT A WARM AFTN SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO
NR 90 DEGREES. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SWLY ALOFT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF THE AREA...KEEPING A SLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS ON TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT TRAVEL OVER THE AREA. A DAILY SLIGHT OR
LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND AFTN HIGHS IN THE 80S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS AT A FEW SITES ACRS CNTL LA INTO THE LAKES
AREA OF TX NR 90.
&&
.MARINE...
A GENERALLY MODERATE SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 70 87 71 87 / 10 10 10 10
KBPT 71 86 72 84 / 10 10 10 10
KAEX 69 90 70 89 / 10 10 10 10
KLFT 71 87 72 87 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
000
FXUS64 KLCH 171800
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL STREAM AND DEVELOP OVER THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO CONT RISE THRU THE LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR WX... WINDS TO REMAIN UP THRU SUNSET THEN SETTLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRES RIDGING WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR OVER THE AREA.
ABUNDANT STRATUS ACRS THE FCST AREA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME SCT BY THIS AFTN. BEEN WATCHING AN ISOLATED
STORM MOVING SE OUT OF N CNTL TX EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LAST FEW
RADAR SCANS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY TO LOWER
TEENS FOR SE TX...BUT EXPECT THIS STORM WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY SKY...WIND...AND TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS WHICH RESULTED IN
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING IN ZONES...BUT FCST IS GENERALLY ON
TRACK. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE...RIDGES
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (ON THE
WARM SIDE OF DOME) IS TRANSPORTING CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES.
THE CONSEQUENT MORNING MARINE STRATUS WILL BREAK UP BY MID MORNING.
21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS RESULTING FROM A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLIES
INCOMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AFOREMENTIONED ALSO MAINTAINING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO
LOW 70S SOUTH...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS/NORTHERN GULF TO LOW PRESSURE OVER MID-TEXAS.
ALOFT...OPENING LOW NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS.
NEXT TROF AND POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER FOR US NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAINED CONFINED TO ONLY THE LOWER
LEVELS AS A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED ALOFT. WITH
ATMOSPHERE ESSENTIALLY CAPPED...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL
WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD THE NORM AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW END
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME-FRAME AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEST COAST TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MARINE...STRONG FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 85 71 85 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
KBPT 71 84 71 84 73 / 0 0 10 10 10
KAEX 70 89 69 89 71 / 0 0 10 10 10
KLFT 71 86 71 86 72 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 171515
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRES RIDGING WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR OVER THE AREA.
ABUNDANT STRATUS ACRS THE FCST AREA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME SCT BY THIS AFTN. BEEN WATCHING AN ISOLATED
STORM MOVING SE OUT OF N CNTL TX EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT LAST FEW
RADAR SCANS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND. RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY TO LOWER
TEENS FOR SE TX...BUT EXPECT THIS STORM WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...JUST MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY SKY...WIND...AND TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS WHICH RESULTED IN
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING IN ZONES...BUT FCST IS GENERALLY ON
TRACK. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE...RIDGES
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (ON THE
WARM SIDE OF DOME) IS TRANSPORTING CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES.
THE CONSEQUENT MORNING MARINE STRATUS WILL BREAK UP BY MID MORNING.
21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS RESULTING FROM A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLIES
INCOMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AFOREMENTIONED ALSO MAINTAINING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO
LOW 70S SOUTH...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS/NORTHERN GULF TO LOW PRESSURE OVER MID-TEXAS.
ALOFT...OPENING LOW NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS.
NEXT TROF AND POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER FOR US NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAINED CONFINED TO ONLY THE LOWER
LEVELS AS A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED ALOFT. WITH
ATMOSPHERE ESSENTIALLY CAPPED...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL
WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD THE NORM AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW END
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME-FRAME AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEST COAST TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MARINE...STRONG FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 84 70 86 70 / 10 0 0 10
KBPT 83 71 84 71 / 10 0 0 10
KAEX 87 70 89 69 / 10 0 0 10
KLFT 84 71 85 71 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 171212
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
712 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...LOCATED OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE...RIDGES
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (ON THE
WARM SIDE OF DOME) IS TRANSPORTING CARIBBEAN AIR INTO THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES.
THE CONSEQUENT MORNING MARINE STRATUS WILL BREAK UP BY MID MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS RESULTING FROM A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLIES
INCOMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AFOREMENTIONED ALSO MAINTAINING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO
LOW 70S SOUTH...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS/NORTHERN GULF TO LOW PRESSURE OVER MID-TEXAS.
ALOFT...OPENING LOW NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS.
NEXT TROF AND POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER FOR US NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAINED CONFINED TO ONLY THE LOWER
LEVELS AS A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED ALOFT. WITH
ATMOSPHERE ESSENTIALLY CAPPED...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL
WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD THE NORM AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW END
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME-FRAME AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEST COAST TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MARINE...STRONG FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 71 85 71 85 / 10 0 0 10 10
KBPT 83 71 84 71 84 / 10 0 0 10 10
KAEX 87 70 89 69 89 / 10 0 0 10 10
KLFT 85 71 86 71 86 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 170858
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS RESULTING FROM A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLIES
INCOMING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AFOREMENTIONED ALSO MAINTAINING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE NORM...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO
LOW 70S SOUTH...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS/NORTHERN GULF TO LOW PRESSURE OVER MID-TEXAS.
ALOFT...OPENING LOW NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ADVANCING INTO THE PLAINS.
NEXT TROF AND POTENTIAL RAIN MAKER FOR US NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS.
ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAINED CONFINED TO ONLY THE LOWER
LEVELS AS A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINED ALOFT. WITH
ATMOSPHERE ESSENTIALLY CAPPED...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL
WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD THE NORM AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW END
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIME-FRAME AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEST COAST TROF
ADVANCES SLOWLY INTO AND THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.MARINE...STRONG FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY
FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 71 85 71 85 / 10 0 0 10 10
KBPT 83 71 84 71 84 / 10 0 0 10 10
KAEX 87 70 89 69 89 / 10 0 0 10 10
KLFT 85 71 86 71 86 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 170429
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVC MVFR CEILINGS ~1200-1500FT ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SE
TX...WITH BKN MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF LA TERMINAL SITES. INTERMITTENT IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...S WINDS OF 12-14 KTS
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z FRI.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 4K
FEET...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. ALSO...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT. THAT IS THE ONLY REAL
CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH WINDS STAYING UP
ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUD BASES.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL BE NEARING IFR LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A SINGLE SEVERE
STORM...CROSSING NRN LA. OTHERWISE A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR EAST MAINTAINS A MOIST SRLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THREW IN A SMALL POP ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE INTENSE CELL NEAR KSHV HAS SHOWN RIGHT-MOVING
TENDENCIES AND COULD SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...OR POSSIBLY SPIN OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOWS. OVERNIGHT
HOURS THEN LOOK CLOUDY/WARM/MUGGY AS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN A NEAR-SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTHERLIES ALOFT.
RIDGING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BEGIN TO CAP THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. DID THROW IN SLIM POPS
AGAIN FOR E-CNTL LA WHERE LESS CAPPING IS PROGGED. THEREAFTER THE
FORECAST LOOKS DRY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING 90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH THE SAVING GRACE EACH DAY BEING DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING DOWN AND HELPING KEEP RH VALUES FROM BEING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO SMALL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OR ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY AGAIN LOOKS DRY AS
RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AS SRLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 70 83 71 86 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 71 84 71 85 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 68 87 70 89 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KLFT 70 85 71 87 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 170207
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
907 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 4K
FEET...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. ALSO...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TONIGHT. THAT IS THE ONLY REAL
CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...A
MUGGY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH WINDS STAYING UP
ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUD BASES.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL BE NEARING IFR LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A SINGLE SEVERE
STORM...CROSSING NRN LA. OTHERWISE A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR EAST MAINTAINS A MOIST SRLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THREW IN A SMALL POP ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE INTENSE CELL NEAR KSHV HAS SHOWN RIGHT-MOVING
TENDENCIES AND COULD SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...OR POSSIBLY SPIN OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOWS. OVERNIGHT
HOURS THEN LOOK CLOUDY/WARM/MUGGY AS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN A NEAR-SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTHERLIES ALOFT.
RIDGING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BEGIN TO CAP THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. DID THROW IN SLIM POPS
AGAIN FOR E-CNTL LA WHERE LESS CAPPING IS PROGGED. THEREAFTER THE
FORECAST LOOKS DRY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING 90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH THE SAVING GRACE EACH DAY BEING DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING DOWN AND HELPING KEEP RH VALUES FROM BEING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO SMALL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OR ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY AGAIN LOOKS DRY AS
RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AS SRLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 70 83 71 86 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 71 84 71 85 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 68 87 70 89 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KLFT 70 85 71 87 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 162325
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH WINDS STAYING UP
ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT...ONLY CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUD BASES.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL BE NEARING IFR LEVELS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A SINGLE SEVERE
STORM...CROSSING NRN LA. OTHERWISE A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR EAST MAINTAINS A MOIST SRLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THREW IN A SMALL POP ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE INTENSE CELL NEAR KSHV HAS SHOWN RIGHT-MOVING
TENDENCIES AND COULD SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...OR POSSIBLY SPIN OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOWS. OVERNIGHT
HOURS THEN LOOK CLOUDY/WARM/MUGGY AS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN A NEAR-SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTHERLIES ALOFT.
RIDGING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BEGIN TO CAP THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. DID THROW IN SLIM POPS
AGAIN FOR E-CNTL LA WHERE LESS CAPPING IS PROGGED. THEREAFTER THE
FORECAST LOOKS DRY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING 90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH THE SAVING GRACE EACH DAY BEING DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING DOWN AND HELPING KEEP RH VALUES FROM BEING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO SMALL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OR ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY AGAIN LOOKS DRY AS
RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AS SRLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 70 83 71 86 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 71 84 71 85 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 68 87 70 89 69 / 20 20 10 10 10
KLFT 70 85 71 87 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 162038
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...INCLUDING A SINGLE SEVERE
STORM...CROSSING NRN LA. OTHERWISE A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO OUR EAST MAINTAINS A MOIST SRLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THREW IN A SMALL POP ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS THE INTENSE CELL NEAR KSHV HAS SHOWN RIGHT-MOVING
TENDENCIES AND COULD SURVIVE THIS FAR SOUTH...OR POSSIBLY SPIN OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOWS. OVERNIGHT
HOURS THEN LOOK CLOUDY/WARM/MUGGY AS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN A NEAR-SATURATED LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SOUTHERLIES ALOFT.
RIDGING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
BEGIN TO CAP THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE BEGINNING TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. DID THROW IN SLIM POPS
AGAIN FOR E-CNTL LA WHERE LESS CAPPING IS PROGGED. THEREAFTER THE
FORECAST LOOKS DRY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PUSHING 90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH THE SAVING GRACE EACH DAY BEING DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING DOWN AND HELPING KEEP RH VALUES FROM BEING OVERLY OPPRESSIVE.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO SMALL POPS ACROSS MUCH
OR ALL OF THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY AGAIN LOOKS DRY AS
RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE INSERTED CAUTION HEADLINES ON THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT
AS SRLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 70 83 71 86 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KBPT 71 84 71 85 71 / 10 10 10 10 10
KAEX 68 87 70 89 69 / 20 20 10 10 10
KLFT 70 85 71 87 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
25
000
FXUS64 KLCH 161756
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1256 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
16/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN NR KAEX AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW. ANTICIPATED SHRA COVERAGE
WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE SO LEFT OUT VC MENTION IN AEX TAF. WILL BE
WATCHING CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH ACRS NE TX FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ACTIVITY REACHING KAEX LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING...BUT
ATTM THINK THIS WILL WEAKEN/REMAIN NORTH. OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH
PRES TO THE EAST WILL KEEP A GENERALLY MODERATE SLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 18-25 KT AT TIMES. A SCT
CU FIELD 2500-3500 FT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FM 04Z-06Z TONIGHT. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...THE REMAINS OF LAST
NIGHTS NRN TX SEVERE CONVECTION...PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE TOLEDO
BEND REGION AND CNTL LA. UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BRIEF SHOT OF DRY AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
SABINE VALLEY...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS NOTED BACK IN CNTL TX.
MODIFIED 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS PLENTY MOIST (1.5 INCH PWAT/130+
PCNT OF CLIMO NORMAL) AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A TRIGGER TEMP IN
THE MID 70S. GIVEN ALL THAT THE SMALL POPS INHERITED FOR THE REST
OF TODAY LOOK GOOD. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS WHICH
WILL NOT WARRANT A ZONE UPDATE THIS MORNING.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH THE RISING SUN.
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THIS AREA AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY SHORTWAVES...ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
OKLAHOMA LOW...CONTINUE TO UPSWING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON. 21
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TEXAS MCS
NOW ADVANCING INTO OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. HAVE
BUMPED UP EARLY MORNING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 35 MPH.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ENTERING THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE. FEATURE SPAWNED A QLCS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE QLCS
APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. DECAY OF SYSTEM
HAS BEEN RAPID OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO
AREA OF MORE STABILITY. EXPECTING LITTLE ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS AREA-WIDE AS
SOUTHWARD TROFFING/WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IN COMBINATION
WITH ANY PVA CARRIED WITHIN TROF.
LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH
AMPLIFYING RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENSUING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK...WHILE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE NIGHTS WILL BE MILD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL.
MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE NORTHWEST GULF PRIMARILY WITHIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 69 84 70 / 30 10 10 10
KBPT 81 70 83 71 / 20 10 10 10
KAEX 85 68 87 69 / 30 10 10 10
KLFT 83 70 84 70 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 161525
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...THE REMAINS OF LAST
NIGHTS NRN TX SEVERE CONVECTION...PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE TOLEDO
BEND REGION AND CNTL LA. UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
BRIEF SHOT OF DRY AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
SABINE VALLEY...BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS NOTED BACK IN CNTL TX.
MODIFIED 12Z KLCH SOUNDING WAS PLENTY MOIST (1.5 INCH PWAT/130+
PCNT OF CLIMO NORMAL) AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH A TRIGGER TEMP IN
THE MID 70S. GIVEN ALL THAT THE SMALL POPS INHERITED FOR THE REST
OF TODAY LOOK GOOD. OTHERWISE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS WHICH
WILL NOT WARRANT A ZONE UPDATE THIS MORNING.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH THE RISING SUN.
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THIS AREA AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY SHORTWAVES...ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
OKLAHOMA LOW...CONTINUE TO UPSWING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
.BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TEXAS MCS
NOW ADVANCING INTO OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. HAVE
BUMPED UP EARLY MORNING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 35 MPH.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ENTERING THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE. FEATURE SPAWNED A QLCS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE QLCS
APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. DECAY OF SYSTEM
HAS BEEN RAPID OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO
AREA OF MORE STABILITY. EXPECTING LITTLE ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS AREA-WIDE AS
SOUTHWARD TROFFING/WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IN COMBINATION
WITH ANY PVA CARRIED WITHIN TROF.
LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH
AMPLIFYING RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENSUING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK...WHILE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE NIGHTS WILL BE MILD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL.
MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE NORTHWEST GULF PRIMARILY WITHIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 82 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 81 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 85 68 87 69 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
KLFT 83 70 84 70 86 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 161252
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
752 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH THE RISING SUN.
HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THIS AREA AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY SHORTWAVES...ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
OKLAHOMA LOW...CONTINUE TO UPSWING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
..BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TEXAS MCS
NOW ADVANCING INTO OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. HAVE
BUMPED UP EARLY MORNING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 35 MPH.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ENTERING THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE. FEATURE SPAWNED A QLCS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE QLCS
APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. DECAY OF SYSTEM
HAS BEEN RAPID OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO
AREA OF MORE STABILITY. EXPECTING LITTLE ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS AREA-WIDE AS
SOUTHWARD TROFFING/WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IN COMBINATION
WITH ANY PVA CARRIED WITHIN TROF.
LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH
AMPLIFYING RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENSUING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK...WHILE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE NIGHTS WILL BE MILD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL.
MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE NORTHWEST GULF PRIMARILY WITHIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 81 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 81 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 84 68 87 69 88 / 30 10 10 10 10
KLFT 82 70 84 70 86 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 161209
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WESTERLY SHORTWAVES...ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
OKLAHOMA LOW...CONTINUE TO UPSWING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
...BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TEXAS MCS
NOW ADVANCING INTO OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. HAVE
BUMPED UP EARLY MORNING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 35 MPH.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ENTERING THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE. FEATURE SPAWNED A QLCS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE QLCS
APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. DECAY OF SYSTEM
HAS BEEN RAPID OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO
AREA OF MORE STABILITY. EXPECTING LITTLE ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS AREA-WIDE AS
SOUTHWARD TROFFING/WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IN COMBINATION
WITH ANY PVA CARRIED WITHIN TROF.
LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH
AMPLIFYING RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENSUING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK...WHILE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE NIGHTS WILL BE MILD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL.
MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE NORTHWEST GULF PRIMARILY WITHIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 81 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 81 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 84 68 87 69 88 / 60 10 10 10 10
KLFT 82 70 84 70 86 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 161146
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER TEXAS MCS
NOW ADVANCING INTO OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. HAVE
BUMPED UP EARLY MORNING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AT 35 MPH.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ENTERING THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE. FEATURE SPAWNED A QLCS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE QLCS
APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. DECAY OF SYSTEM
HAS BEEN RAPID OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO
AREA OF MORE STABILITY. EXPECTING LITTLE ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS AREA-WIDE AS
SOUTHWARD TROFFING/WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IN COMBINATION
WITH ANY PVA CARRIED WITHIN TROF.
LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH
AMPLIFYING RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENSUING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK...WHILE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE NIGHTS WILL BE MILD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL.
MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE NORTHWEST GULF PRIMARILY WITHIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 81 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 81 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 84 68 87 69 88 / 60 10 10 10 10
KLFT 82 70 84 70 86 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 160831
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LOW NOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
LOW PROGGED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ENTERING THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE. FEATURE SPAWNED A QLCS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTH TEXAS...WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE QLCS
APPROACHING OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES. DECAY OF SYSTEM
HAS BEEN RAPID OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO
AREA OF MORE STABILITY. EXPECTING LITTLE ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
OUR CWA. OTHERWISE...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS AREA-WIDE AS
SOUTHWARD TROFFING/WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...IN COMBINATION
WITH ANY PVA CARRIED WITHIN TROF.
LOW WILL OPEN AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH
AMPLIFYING RIDGING MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ENSUING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK...WHILE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN ONLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THAT IN MIND...WARM AND SOMEWHAT
HUMID DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...WHILE NIGHTS WILL BE MILD. RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL.
&&
.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND NORTHERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
NEW WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE NORTHWEST GULF PRIMARILY WITHIN A DRY WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 81 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 81 70 83 71 84 / 20 10 10 10 10
KAEX 84 68 87 69 88 / 20 10 10 10 10
KLFT 82 70 84 70 86 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MARCOTTE
000
FXUS64 KLCH 160249
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. ONE
PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS SKIRTED THE NORTHERN ZONES AS IT MOVED THROUGH. ATTENTION
NOW TURNS TO SEVERE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND
THE METROPLEX. SOME HIRES MESO SCALE MODELS WANT TO CONGEAL THE
ACTIVITY INTO A LINE AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKENS IT. THAT IS THE MOST PROBABLE
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE SOME CHANCE
POPS FOR AREAS NORTH OF A WOODVILLE TO LEESVILLE LINE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DOWN TOWARD A MARKSVILLE TO JUST NORTH OF BEAUMONT
LINE...IN CASE ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER MORE THAN WHAT IS
ANTICIPATED.
OTHER THAN TO ADJUST POPS...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMP AND WIND
GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND BLEND WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS AND SO HAVE DROPPED VCSH FROM THE TAF SITES. MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS AS NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE
PROJECTING A CEILING AROUND 1500 FEET WITH BEAUMONT DROPPING TO
AROUND 900 FEET. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND RETURNING TO VFR.
69
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH A PAIR OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND IT. FIRST
ONE IS HELPING PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NW BUT WITH
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP PERSISTING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
WITH THE 2ND VORT TO ITS WEST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST KEEPING A PERSISTENT MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY AIR NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION APPEARS TO BE WINNING OUT
AFTER ALL AS COVERAGE OF RETURNS ON RADAR HAS BEEN STEADILY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z MAINLY OVER THE LA ZONES. BUT
LOOKING BACK OVER CNTL TX BEGINNING TO SEE MORE CONVECTION FIRING
AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE-
BOUND TOWARD THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
MAINTAINED A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA. STILL CARRYING
SLIM POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE DEEPENING MOISTURE IN PLACE.
BEYOND TOMORROW NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO SPEAK
OF. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN RISING IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
ON FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE SERVING AS A CAP WHICH WILL KEEP
POPS TO BASICALLY NIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WITH MAXES NEAR
90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN TERMS OF TIMING/COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AM KEEPING 20ISH POPS TO COVER.
MARINE...
MAINLY MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A DECENT GRADIENT PERSISTS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
TX/SRN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 66 81 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
KBPT 68 82 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
KAEX 62 84 68 87 69 / 30 20 10 10 10
KLFT 64 82 70 85 70 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 152348
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS AND SO HAVE DROPPED VCSH FROM THE TAF SITES. MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS AS NEARLY ALL MODELS ARE
PROJECTING A CEILING AROUND 1500 FEET WITH BEAUMONT DROPPING TO
AROUND 900 FEET. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING AND RETURNING TO VFR.
69
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH A PAIR OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND IT. FIRST
ONE IS HELPING PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NW BUT WITH
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP PERSISTING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
WITH THE 2ND VORT TO ITS WEST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST KEEPING A PERSISTENT MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY AIR NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION APPEARS TO BE WINNING OUT
AFTER ALL AS COVERAGE OF RETURNS ON RADAR HAS BEEN STEADILY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z MAINLY OVER THE LA ZONES. BUT
LOOKING BACK OVER CNTL TX BEGINNING TO SEE MORE CONVECTION FIRING
AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE-
BOUND TOWARD THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
MAINTAINED A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA. STILL CARRYING
SLIM POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE DEEPENING MOISTURE IN PLACE.
BEYOND TOMORROW NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO SPEAK
OF. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN RISING IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
ON FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE SERVING AS A CAP WHICH WILL KEEP
POPS TO BASICALLY NIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WITH MAXES NEAR
90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN TERMS OF TIMING/COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AM KEEPING 20ISH POPS TO COVER.
MARINE...
MAINLY MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A DECENT GRADIENT PERSISTS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
TX/SRN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 66 81 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
KBPT 68 82 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
KAEX 62 84 68 87 69 / 40 20 10 10 10
KLFT 64 82 70 85 70 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 152039
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CUTOFF LOW SPINNING ENEWD ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH A PAIR OF IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND IT. FIRST
ONE IS HELPING PRODUCE AN AREA OF RAIN MAINLY TO OUR NW BUT WITH
PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP PERSISTING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS CLOSER TO THE LOW AND
WITH THE 2ND VORT TO ITS WEST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST KEEPING A PERSISTENT MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY AIR NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION APPEARS TO BE WINNING OUT
AFTER ALL AS COVERAGE OF RETURNS ON RADAR HAS BEEN STEADILY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH 00Z MAINLY OVER THE LA ZONES. BUT
LOOKING BACK OVER CNTL TX BEGINNING TO SEE MORE CONVECTION FIRING
AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE-
BOUND TOWARD THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
MAINTAINED A SMALL POP FOR TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA. STILL CARRYING
SLIM POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AS NEXT SHORTWAVE CROSSES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE DEEPENING MOISTURE IN PLACE.
BEYOND TOMORROW NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO SPEAK
OF. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN RISING IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
ON FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE SERVING AS A CAP WHICH WILL KEEP
POPS TO BASICALLY NIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WITH MAXES NEAR
90 FOR THE NRN ZONES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. NEXT STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES...HELPING BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN TERMS OF TIMING/COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AM KEEPING 20ISH POPS TO COVER.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A DECENT GRADIENT PERSISTS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
TX/SRN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 66 81 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
KBPT 68 82 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
KAEX 62 84 68 87 69 / 40 20 10 10 10
KLFT 64 82 70 85 70 / 20 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
25
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