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000
FXUS64 KLCH 201203
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WERE
HIGH. GOES-E MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY CHARTS SHOWED FOG
CONCENTRATION MAINLY CONFINED IN THE TERMINAL AIRPORT AREAS OF BPT
AND LCH EARLY THIS MORNING. BPT WAS THE CLEAR PROBLEM SPOT AS LIFR
VISIBILITY/CLOUD CONDITIONS SEEN THERE BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SLOWLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WHERE FOG WAS A BIT THICK. ELSEWHERE...ALL TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD BE VFR BY 15Z. FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN
TONIGHT AS FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR.

06

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROF EMERGING EAST O THE FOUR CORNERS INTO WEST TX. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WRN
GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM ERN CANADA INTO
THE NW GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY...LEADING
TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS
CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OBS ACROSS SE TX/SW LA INDICATE AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND INTO SW LA VIA A
COMBINATION OF ADVECTION/RADIATION PROCESSES. HAD INSERTED PATCHY
FOG INTO THE GRIDS OVER SE TX FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...BUT IN THE PROCESS OF WRITING THIS AFD...THE FOG HAS
WORSENED AND EXPANDED EASTWARD. AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF
AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT TRAVERSING THE REGION
UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO
THE MODERATING TREND. CONTINUED TO KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY...BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE SOME
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  20
KBPT  81  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  20
KAEX  81  58  80  60 /  10  10  20  30
KLFT  81  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CALCASIEU-
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HARDIN-
     JEFFERSON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13









000
FXUS64 KLCH 201203
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 20/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WERE
HIGH. GOES-E MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY CHARTS SHOWED FOG
CONCENTRATION MAINLY CONFINED IN THE TERMINAL AIRPORT AREAS OF BPT
AND LCH EARLY THIS MORNING. BPT WAS THE CLEAR PROBLEM SPOT AS LIFR
VISIBILITY/CLOUD CONDITIONS SEEN THERE BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SLOWLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WHERE FOG WAS A BIT THICK. ELSEWHERE...ALL TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA SHOULD BE VFR BY 15Z. FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN
TONIGHT AS FORECAST CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR.

06

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROF EMERGING EAST O THE FOUR CORNERS INTO WEST TX. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WRN
GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM ERN CANADA INTO
THE NW GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY...LEADING
TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS
CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OBS ACROSS SE TX/SW LA INDICATE AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND INTO SW LA VIA A
COMBINATION OF ADVECTION/RADIATION PROCESSES. HAD INSERTED PATCHY
FOG INTO THE GRIDS OVER SE TX FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...BUT IN THE PROCESS OF WRITING THIS AFD...THE FOG HAS
WORSENED AND EXPANDED EASTWARD. AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF
AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT TRAVERSING THE REGION
UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO
THE MODERATING TREND. CONTINUED TO KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY...BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE SOME
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  20
KBPT  81  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  20
KAEX  81  58  80  60 /  10  10  20  30
KLFT  81  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CALCASIEU-
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HARDIN-
     JEFFERSON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13










000
FXUS64 KLCH 201004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
504 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROF EMERGING EAST O THE FOUR CORNERS INTO WEST TX. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WRN
GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM ERN CANADA INTO
THE NW GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY...LEADING
TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS
CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OBS ACROSS SE TX/SW LA INDICATE AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND INTO SW LA VIA A
COMBINATION OF ADVECTION/RADIATION PROCESSES. HAD INSERTED PATCHY
FOG INTO THE GRIDS OVER SE TX FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...BUT IN THE PROCESS OF WRITING THIS AFD...THE FOG HAS
WORSENED AND EXPANDED EASTWARD. AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF
AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT TRAVERSING THE REGION
UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO
THE MODERATING TREND. CONTINUED TO KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY...BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE SOME
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  20
KBPT  81  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  20
KAEX  81  58  80  60 /  10  10  20  30
KLFT  81  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CALCASIEU-
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HARDIN-
     JEFFERSON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 201004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
504 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROF EMERGING EAST O THE FOUR CORNERS INTO WEST TX. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WRN
GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM ERN CANADA INTO
THE NW GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY...LEADING
TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS
CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OBS ACROSS SE TX/SW LA INDICATE AREAS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AND INTO SW LA VIA A
COMBINATION OF ADVECTION/RADIATION PROCESSES. HAD INSERTED PATCHY
FOG INTO THE GRIDS OVER SE TX FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
MORNING...BUT IN THE PROCESS OF WRITING THIS AFD...THE FOG HAS
WORSENED AND EXPANDED EASTWARD. AN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF
AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT TRAVERSING THE REGION
UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO
THE MODERATING TREND. CONTINUED TO KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY...BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE SOME
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND LIFTS BACK
NORTHWARD.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  20
KBPT  81  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  20
KAEX  81  58  80  60 /  10  10  20  30
KLFT  81  59  80  61 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CALCASIEU-
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HARDIN-
     JEFFERSON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13







000
FXUS64 KLCH 200041
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
741 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR NEARLY CALM WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. MADE
ONLY A MINOR TWEAK LOWER ON TEMPS. COULD BE A FEW SHALLOW FOG
PATCHES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. GRIDS ALRADY UPDATED.
SHOULD BE A MIGHTY FINE SUNRISE FOR EASTER.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
WHAT FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS EVE WILL BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE... VFR WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A BIT OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER C AND SC LA...WITH A FIELD OF CUMULUS OVER W LA & SE TX
FROM THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH
DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THUS...EXPECT THE PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EASTER
WEEKEND. ONLY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS...MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS EASTER SUN.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH
COULD SCURRY UP ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED
TO WASH OUT EITHER ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR THE COAST WITH NO
COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GENERATE ISO SHRA/TSRA BY
NEXT FRI...THUS LEFT INHERITED 20% FOR THIS PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  79  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
KBPT  57  79  60  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
KAEX  54  80  58  81  60 /   0   0  10  20  30
KLFT  55  81  59  81  60 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 200041
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
741 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR NEARLY CALM WINDS AND FAIR SKIES. MADE
ONLY A MINOR TWEAK LOWER ON TEMPS. COULD BE A FEW SHALLOW FOG
PATCHES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. GRIDS ALRADY UPDATED.
SHOULD BE A MIGHTY FINE SUNRISE FOR EASTER.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

AVIATION...
WHAT FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS EVE WILL BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE... VFR WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A BIT OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER C AND SC LA...WITH A FIELD OF CUMULUS OVER W LA & SE TX
FROM THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH
DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THUS...EXPECT THE PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EASTER
WEEKEND. ONLY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS...MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS EASTER SUN.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH
COULD SCURRY UP ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED
TO WASH OUT EITHER ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR THE COAST WITH NO
COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GENERATE ISO SHRA/TSRA BY
NEXT FRI...THUS LEFT INHERITED 20% FOR THIS PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  79  60  79  61 /   0   0  10  20  20
KBPT  57  79  60  79  62 /   0   0  10  20  20
KAEX  54  80  58  81  60 /   0   0  10  20  30
KLFT  55  81  59  81  60 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 192330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WHAT FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS EVE WILL BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE... VFR WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A BIT OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER C AND SC LA...WITH A FIELD OF CUMULUS OVER W LA & SE TX
FROM THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH
DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THUS...EXPECT THE PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EASTER
WEEKEND. ONLY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS...MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS EASTER SUN.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH
COULD SCURRY UP ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED
TO WASH OUT EITHER ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR THE COAST WITH NO
COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GENERATE ISO SHRA/TSRA BY
NEXT FRI...THUS LEFT INHERITED 20% FOR THIS PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  20  20
KBPT  58  79  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  20  20
KAEX  55  81  58  81  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
KLFT  57  81  59  81  60 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 192330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WHAT FEW CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS EVE WILL BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE... VFR WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A BIT OF
FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER C AND SC LA...WITH A FIELD OF CUMULUS OVER W LA & SE TX
FROM THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH
DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THUS...EXPECT THE PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EASTER
WEEKEND. ONLY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS...MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS EASTER SUN.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH
COULD SCURRY UP ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED
TO WASH OUT EITHER ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR THE COAST WITH NO
COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GENERATE ISO SHRA/TSRA BY
NEXT FRI...THUS LEFT INHERITED 20% FOR THIS PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  20  20
KBPT  58  79  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  20  20
KAEX  55  81  58  81  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
KLFT  57  81  59  81  60 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 191922
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER C AND SC LA...WITH A FIELD OF CUMULUS OVER W LA & SE TX
FROM THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH
DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THUS...EXPECT THE PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EASTER
WEEKEND. ONLY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS...MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS EASTER SUN.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH
COULD SCURRY UP ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED
TO WASH OUT EITHER ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR THE COAST WITH NO
COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GENERATE ISO SHRA/TSRA BY
NEXT FRI...THUS LEFT INHERITED 20% FOR THIS PERIOD.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  20  20
KBPT  58  79  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  20  20
KAEX  55  81  58  81  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
KLFT  57  81  59  81  60 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 191922
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
222 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY OVER C AND SC LA...WITH A FIELD OF CUMULUS OVER W LA & SE TX
FROM THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH
DEWPTS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THUS...EXPECT THE PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EASTER
WEEKEND. ONLY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS...MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S FOR
LOWS TONIGHT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS EASTER SUN.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH
COULD SCURRY UP ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED
TO WASH OUT EITHER ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OR THE COAST WITH NO
COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS
NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GENERATE ISO SHRA/TSRA BY
NEXT FRI...THUS LEFT INHERITED 20% FOR THIS PERIOD.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EASTER WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST. AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  79  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  20  20
KBPT  58  79  60  79  62 /  10  10  10  20  20
KAEX  55  81  58  81  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
KLFT  57  81  59  81  60 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 191732
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1232 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF MVFR PATCHY FOG AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. ONLY
MINOR REFRESH OF CURRENT TRENDS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONGOING FORECAST
ON TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WEAK WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

06

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ONE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE DEPARTING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
BAJA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED
ACROSS TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR APALACHICOLA...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NW
GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PROVE TO BE MUCH OF AN INHIBITOR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS THE COOL HIGH ONLY
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT
TRAVERSING THE REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED
WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO THE MODERATING
TREND.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO PREVAIL ON WED...WITH GLOBAL MODELS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  56  78  59  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  78  57  78  60  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  78  56  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  78  57  80  59  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 191732
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1232 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF MVFR PATCHY FOG AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. ONLY
MINOR REFRESH OF CURRENT TRENDS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONGOING FORECAST
ON TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WEAK WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

06

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ONE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE DEPARTING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
BAJA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED
ACROSS TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR APALACHICOLA...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NW
GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PROVE TO BE MUCH OF AN INHIBITOR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS THE COOL HIGH ONLY
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT
TRAVERSING THE REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED
WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO THE MODERATING
TREND.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO PREVAIL ON WED...WITH GLOBAL MODELS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  56  78  59  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  78  57  78  60  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  78  56  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  78  57  80  59  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 191505
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1005 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. ONLY
MINOR REFRESH OF CURRENT TRENDS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONGOING FORECAST
ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WEAK WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

06

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ONE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE DEPARTING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
BAJA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED
ACROSS TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR APALACHICOLA...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NW
GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PROVE TO BE MUCH OF AN INHIBITOR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS THE COOL HIGH ONLY
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT
TRAVERSING THE REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED
WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO THE MODERATING
TREND.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO PREVAIL ON WED...WITH GLOBAL MODELS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  56  78  59  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  78  57  78  60  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  78  56  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  78  57  80  59  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 191505
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1005 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING S ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY...BEHIND THE WEAKENING SFC LOW OVER FL/GA. THE RESULT...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80. ONLY
MINOR REFRESH OF CURRENT TRENDS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONGOING FORECAST
ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WEAK WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

06

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ONE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE DEPARTING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
BAJA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED
ACROSS TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR APALACHICOLA...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NW
GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PROVE TO BE MUCH OF AN INHIBITOR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS THE COOL HIGH ONLY
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT
TRAVERSING THE REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED
WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO THE MODERATING
TREND.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO PREVAIL ON WED...WITH GLOBAL MODELS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  56  78  59  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  78  57  78  60  78 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  78  56  80  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  78  57  80  59  81 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 191153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
758 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WEAK WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ONE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE DEPARTING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
BAJA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED
ACROSS TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR APALACHICOLA...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NW
GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PROVE TO BE MUCH OF AN INHIBITOR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS THE COOL HIGH ONLY
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT
TRAVERSING THE REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED
WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO THE MODERATING
TREND.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO PREVAIL ON WED...WITH GLOBAL MODELS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  56  78  59 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  78  57  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  78  56  80  58 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  78  57  80  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13









000
FXUS64 KLCH 191153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
758 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN WEAK WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ONE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE DEPARTING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
BAJA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED
ACROSS TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR APALACHICOLA...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NW
GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PROVE TO BE MUCH OF AN INHIBITOR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS THE COOL HIGH ONLY
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT
TRAVERSING THE REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED
WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO THE MODERATING
TREND.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO PREVAIL ON WED...WITH GLOBAL MODELS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  56  78  59 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  78  57  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  78  56  80  58 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  78  57  80  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13










000
FXUS64 KLCH 190939
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
439 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ONE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE DEPARTING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
BAJA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED
ACROSS TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR APALACHICOLA...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NW
GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PROVE TO BE MUCH OF AN INHIBITOR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS THE COOL HIGH ONLY
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT
TRAVERSING THE REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED
WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO THE MODERATING
TREND.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO PREVAIL ON WED...WITH GLOBAL MODELS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  56  78  59 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  78  57  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  78  56  80  58 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  78  57  80  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 190939
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
439 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...ONE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE DEPARTING TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OVER THE
BAJA. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...MID/UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED
ACROSS TX AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR APALACHICOLA...WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NW
GULF.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT
WINDS AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE ALOFT IS CARRIED IN BY THE SUBTROPICAL
JET...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PROVE TO BE MUCH OF AN INHIBITOR TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MODERATION WILL OCCUR AS THE COOL HIGH ONLY
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN.

THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND...CROSSING THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. THE MEAN TROF AXIS...HOWEVER...WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND...NOT
TRAVERSING THE REGION UNTIL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONTINUED
WITH LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROF NUDGES A
WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NEAR
THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES OTHER THAN A BRIEF HALT TO THE MODERATING
TREND.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO PREVAIL ON WED...WITH GLOBAL MODELS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT HEADING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  56  78  59 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  78  57  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  78  56  80  58 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  78  57  80  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13







000
FXUS64 KLCH 190443
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... VFR FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES, CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A
DEPARTING LOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES ARE OVER. WEAK COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING
INTO LOWER ACADIANA WITH WINDS DECOUPLING LATE TNITE SO TWEAKED
TEMPS DOWN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
SKIES CLEARING THIS EVE WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF. VFR FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED THRU MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS...COUPLED WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS C AND SC LA...ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES OVER THIS REGION.
THE CONTINUATION OF 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED.

AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER
EAST...THE SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LOWS
EXPECTED RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
MAINLY BYPASS OUR REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE MAY ALLOW FOR A
WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH MAY
SCURRY UP ISO SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT
ANYWAY WITH NO COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  78  59  81  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  58  76  59  79  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  55  77  57  82  61 /  10   0  10  10  10
KLFT  54  77  58  82  63 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 190443
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1143 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... VFR FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES, CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A
DEPARTING LOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES ARE OVER. WEAK COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING
INTO LOWER ACADIANA WITH WINDS DECOUPLING LATE TNITE SO TWEAKED
TEMPS DOWN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
SKIES CLEARING THIS EVE WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF. VFR FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED THRU MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS...COUPLED WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS C AND SC LA...ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES OVER THIS REGION.
THE CONTINUATION OF 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED.

AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER
EAST...THE SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LOWS
EXPECTED RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
MAINLY BYPASS OUR REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE MAY ALLOW FOR A
WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH MAY
SCURRY UP ISO SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT
ANYWAY WITH NO COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  78  59  81  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  58  76  59  79  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  55  77  57  82  61 /  10   0  10  10  10
KLFT  54  77  58  82  63 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 190118
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
818 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES, CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A
DEPARTING LOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES ARE OVER. WEAK COLD ADVECTION THIS EVENING
INTO LOWER ACADIANA WITH WINDS DECOUPLING LATE TNITE SO TWEAKED
TEMPS DOWN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
SKIES CLEARING THIS EVE WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF. VFR FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED THRU MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS...COUPLED WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS C AND SC LA...ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES OVER THIS REGION.
THE CONTINUATION OF 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED.

AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER
EAST...THE SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LOWS
EXPECTED RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
MAINLY BYPASS OUR REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE MAY ALLOW FOR A
WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH MAY
SCURRY UP ISO SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT
ANYWAY WITH NO COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

DML

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  78  59  81  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  58  76  59  79  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  55  77  57  82  61 /  10   0  10  10  10
KLFT  54  77  58  82  63 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 190049
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
749 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SKIES CLEARING THIS EVE WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF. VFR FLIGHT RULES
EXPECTED THRU MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  80  59  81  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  59  79  59  79  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  54  80  57  82  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  57  80  58  82  63 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 181955
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
255 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS...COUPLED WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS C AND SC LA...ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES OVER THIS REGION.
THE CONTINUATION OF 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED.

AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER
EAST...THE SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LOWS
EXPECTED RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
MAINLY BYPASS OUR REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE MAY ALLOW FOR A
WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH MAY
SCURRY UP ISO SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT
ANYWAY WITH NO COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  78  58  80  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  78  60  79  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  79  57  80  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  58  79  59  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 181955
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
255 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS...COUPLED WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS C AND SC LA...ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES OVER THIS REGION.
THE CONTINUATION OF 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON IS WARRANTED.

AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROF AXIS MOVES FURTHER
EAST...THE SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LOWS
EXPECTED RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
MAINLY BYPASS OUR REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS...SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED THIS
EASTER WEEKEND.

THE MIDWEST TROF DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH MON & TUE MAY ALLOW FOR A
WEAK FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHICH MAY
SCURRY UP ISO SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO WASH OUT
ANYWAY WITH NO COOLING TEMPS BEHIND IT. SO...LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S AND HIGHS NEAR 80/LOWER 80S LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  78  58  80  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  78  60  79  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  79  57  80  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  58  79  59  81  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 181729
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND
TAKING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. THEREFORE...DO NOT PLAN ON
MENTIONING ANY SHOWERS FOR KAEX WITH THE START OF THIS PACKAGE.
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 5K
FEET. THE STRATO-CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES OVER C LA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY. THUS...CONTINUED 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY 20% FOR C AND SC LA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
UPDATES FOR MORNING TRENDS IN ALL WX FIELDS...BUT OTHERWISE...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 181729
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND
TAKING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. THEREFORE...DO NOT PLAN ON
MENTIONING ANY SHOWERS FOR KAEX WITH THE START OF THIS PACKAGE.
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 5K
FEET. THE STRATO-CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING...LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES OVER C LA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY. THUS...CONTINUED 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY 20% FOR C AND SC LA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
UPDATES FOR MORNING TRENDS IN ALL WX FIELDS...BUT OTHERWISE...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 181445
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES OVER C LA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY. THUS...CONTINUED 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY 20% FOR C AND SC LA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
UPDATES FOR MORNING TRENDS IN ALL WX FIELDS...BUT OTHERWISE...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 181445
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES OVER C LA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY. THUS...CONTINUED 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY 20% FOR C AND SC LA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
UPDATES FOR MORNING TRENDS IN ALL WX FIELDS...BUT OTHERWISE...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 181206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 181206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 181001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 180456
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...THE NEXT TROF PASSAGE WILL BE PRECEDED BY INCREASING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK FOR BPT AND
LCH...AFTER DAYBREAK FOR AEX. AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND NVA IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR IFR
CIGS LATE TNITE INTO LFT AND ARA WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AT ARA WITH
GROUND FOG. THE TROF ONCOMIN TROF PASSAGE SHOULD USHER IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THAT
IS BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 180456
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...THE NEXT TROF PASSAGE WILL BE PRECEDED BY INCREASING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK FOR BPT AND
LCH...AFTER DAYBREAK FOR AEX. AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND NVA IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR IFR
CIGS LATE TNITE INTO LFT AND ARA WITH TEMPO LIFR VIS AT ARA WITH
GROUND FOG. THE TROF ONCOMIN TROF PASSAGE SHOULD USHER IN GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THAT
IS BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 180250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 180250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE
MAIN AXIS ALOFT NOW CROSSING SERN LA...AND HAS CARRIED OF THE BULK
OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP WITH IT AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE PRIMARY TROF AXIS IS NOTED CROSSING THE PLAINS
STATES/TEXAS ATTM. ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS IS HELPING PRODUCE PATCHY
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED ON
REGIONAL 88DS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LIGHT RETURNS ARE NOTED UPSTREAM TO WARRANT
THROWING IN A VERY SMALL POP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE TROF SWINGS THROUGH. WILL BE MAINTAINING
AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO HAS BEEN NOTED OUT THERE. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
AVIATION...
AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 172340
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AVIATION...AN IMPULSE WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES OUT AC CIGS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER LAYERS, CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH
BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171935
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 171935
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
235 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE SOME BRIEF CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THERE
IS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EASE BACK TO THE NORTH FOR
A WHILE THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL END ALL PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT THE EASTERN ZONES BY 06Z TONIGHT. THERE THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUED MENTION OF SMALL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO GRIDS OTHER THAN TO REMOVE THE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE ACTIVITY WELL TO THE WEST.

OTHERWISE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY

BRAZZELL



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  78  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  58  78  60  78  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  55  75  56  79  59 /  20  20  10  10  10
KLFT  58  75  58  78  60 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171541
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1041 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SHORT TERM GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING
NORTHEAST PROGRESS INTO DRIER AIRMASS...HOWEVER RAPID MOISTENING
OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST AS MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEGIN TO
MOVE IT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS WERE
NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER TX GENERATING WEAK SFC WAVE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/LIFT OVER THE NW GULF...RESULTING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER NORTH OVER SE TX/S LA...GENERALLY A MID
LEVEL OVC...WITH SHRA FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD...AFFECTING THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...CONTINUED
VCSH FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY/CEILING POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY E WINDS 8-10 KTS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE/GULF LOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY 14Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  59  78  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
KBPT  70  59  79  60  78 /  70  20  10  10  10
KAEX  69  56  76  57  79 /  50  30  20  10  10
KLFT  71  59  76  59  78 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171541
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1041 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SHORT TERM GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING
NORTHEAST PROGRESS INTO DRIER AIRMASS...HOWEVER RAPID MOISTENING
OF THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST AS MORE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEGIN TO
MOVE IT FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE A GENERAL INCREASE IN POPS WERE
NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER TX GENERATING WEAK SFC WAVE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/LIFT OVER THE NW GULF...RESULTING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER NORTH OVER SE TX/S LA...GENERALLY A MID
LEVEL OVC...WITH SHRA FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD...AFFECTING THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...CONTINUED
VCSH FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY/CEILING POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY E WINDS 8-10 KTS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE/GULF LOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY 14Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  59  78  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
KBPT  70  59  79  60  78 /  70  20  10  10  10
KAEX  69  56  76  57  79 /  50  30  20  10  10
KLFT  71  59  76  59  78 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 171536
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1036 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER TX GENERATING WEAK SFC WAVE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/LIFT OVER THE NW GULF...RESULTING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER NORTH OVER SE TX/S LA...GENERALLY A MID
LEVEL OVC...WITH SHRA FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD...AFFECTING THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...CONTINUED
VCSH FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY/CEILING POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY E WINDS 8-10 KTS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE/GULF LOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY 14Z FRI.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  59  78  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
KBPT  70  59  79  60  78 /  70  20  10  10  10
KAEX  69  56  76  57  79 /  50  30  20  10  10
KLFT  71  59  76  59  78 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 171536
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1036 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER TX GENERATING WEAK SFC WAVE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/LIFT OVER THE NW GULF...RESULTING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. FURTHER NORTH OVER SE TX/S LA...GENERALLY A MID
LEVEL OVC...WITH SHRA FORMING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
SHIELD...AFFECTING THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...CONTINUED
VCSH FOR BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY/CEILING POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY E WINDS 8-10 KTS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE/GULF LOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY 14Z FRI.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTN.
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO APPROACH OUR
WRN COASTAL ZONES. ALSO ADDED THUNDER MENTION TO COASTAL WATERS
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND TO LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10 FOR THIS AFTN.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
EVIDENT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND NEAR GALVESTON. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH LOWERING
MVFR AND IFR CIGS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA RESPECTIVELY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE CNTRD NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD AND WLY FLOW ALOFT
USHERING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. KLCH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PW UP
TO 0.5 INCHES AFTER COMING IN LESS THAN 0.2 AT 12Z YESTERDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND SELY WINDS HAS ALLOWED THE
AIRMASS TO MODIFY RELATIVE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN TEMPS WERE
RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER. AS OF 4 AM...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FM THE
WEST WHILE IN THE LOWER LVLS STRATOCU SPREADS NORTH FM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS SRN TX AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AND
IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ON FRI AS IT MOVES EAST OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PRECIP WATER WILL CLIMB TO OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS...MOSTLY ISOLTD IN COVG...TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AS LIFT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...AN AREA LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE N CNTL GULF ALONG THE NOW STALLED FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
AND MOVE NE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH NELY WINDS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE AREA ON ITS BACKSIDE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BRING A MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR...TEMPS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
FRI AND SAT.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRI INTO EARLY SUN AS DRIER AIR
ALONG WITH RIDGING ALOFT TRANSIT THE REGION. AT THE SFC...SLY
WINDS WILL RETURN BY SAT AFTN AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ENTER THE
SRN PLAINS EASTER SUNDAY. THE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO STAY WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...EASTER LOOKS TO STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE TX COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND
LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE.

LOW POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST THROUGH TUES AS THE TROF PROGRESSES ACRS
THE REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL RUN NR TO ABV NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80. BY MIDWEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABV NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WED.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NELY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SELY DURING THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  59  78  60  78 /  50  20  10  10  10
KBPT  70  59  79  60  78 /  70  20  10  10  10
KAEX  69  56  76  57  79 /  50  30  20  10  10
KLFT  71  59  76  59  78 /  30  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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