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000
FXUS64 KLCH 071517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 07/12Z SHOWS PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.6 INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR FROM ABOVE 85H TO BELOW 50H.
DESPITE THE RIDGING...SOME STREAMER SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE
BEEN MOVING OFF THE GULF ONSHORE LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING. STILL THINK RIDGING WILL HOLD ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY SHOWER FREE...AND LATEST HI-RES ALSO AGREES WITH
THIS...WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-10. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS
ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN MEXICO HELPS TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT...WITH SPEEDS AOA 10 KNOTS EXPECTED ALL SITES. HAVE
CARRIED OVER THE INHERITED VCSH MENTION AT THE SERN TERMINALS AS A
LITTLE BETTER GULF MOISTURE IS PROGGED OVER THESE AREAS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS...TRIGGERED IN PART BY A NELY JET
STREAK BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF VERMILION PARISH.
CARRIED A SMALL POP THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES/PARISHES...EXPANDING IT AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THIS SAME JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. N-S
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT  AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
INITIAL FOCAL PTS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE TO ISOLATED
IN NATURE...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST CHANGED VERY LITTLE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WWD WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...REACHING
SOMETHING OF A PEAK IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROFS TO
TRANSLATE WWD THRU THE DEEP SELY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGING FURTHER ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  78  91  76 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  77  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 071517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 07/12Z SHOWS PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.6 INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL...AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE WITH DRY AIR FROM ABOVE 85H TO BELOW 50H.
DESPITE THE RIDGING...SOME STREAMER SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE
BEEN MOVING OFF THE GULF ONSHORE LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING. STILL THINK RIDGING WILL HOLD ENOUGH THAT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY SHOWER FREE...AND LATEST HI-RES ALSO AGREES WITH
THIS...WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-10. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 100F AND 103F.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS
ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN MEXICO HELPS TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT...WITH SPEEDS AOA 10 KNOTS EXPECTED ALL SITES. HAVE
CARRIED OVER THE INHERITED VCSH MENTION AT THE SERN TERMINALS AS A
LITTLE BETTER GULF MOISTURE IS PROGGED OVER THESE AREAS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS...TRIGGERED IN PART BY A NELY JET
STREAK BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF VERMILION PARISH.
CARRIED A SMALL POP THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES/PARISHES...EXPANDING IT AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THIS SAME JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. N-S
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT  AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
INITIAL FOCAL PTS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE TO ISOLATED
IN NATURE...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST CHANGED VERY LITTLE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WWD WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...REACHING
SOMETHING OF A PEAK IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROFS TO
TRANSLATE WWD THRU THE DEEP SELY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGING FURTHER ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  78  91  76 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  77  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 071143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS
ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN MEXICO HELPS TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT...WITH SPEEDS AOA 10 KNOTS EXPECTED ALL SITES. HAVE
CARRIED OVER THE INHERITED VCSH MENTION AT THE SERN TERMINALS AS A
LITTLE BETTER GULF MOISTURE IS PROGGED OVER THESE AREAS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS...TRIGGERED IN PART BY A NELY JET
STREAK BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF VERMILION PARISH.
CARRIED A SMALL POP THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES/PARISHES...EXPANDING IT AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THIS SAME JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. N-S
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT  AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
INITIAL FOCAL PTS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE TO ISOLATED
IN NATURE...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST CHANGED VERY LITTLE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WWD WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...REACHING
SOMETHING OF A PEAK IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROFS TO
TRANSLATE WWD THRU THE DEEP SELY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGING FURTHER ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  78  91  76 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  77  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 071143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS
ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN MEXICO HELPS TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT...WITH SPEEDS AOA 10 KNOTS EXPECTED ALL SITES. HAVE
CARRIED OVER THE INHERITED VCSH MENTION AT THE SERN TERMINALS AS A
LITTLE BETTER GULF MOISTURE IS PROGGED OVER THESE AREAS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS...TRIGGERED IN PART BY A NELY JET
STREAK BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF VERMILION PARISH.
CARRIED A SMALL POP THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES/PARISHES...EXPANDING IT AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THIS SAME JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. N-S
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT  AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
INITIAL FOCAL PTS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE TO ISOLATED
IN NATURE...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST CHANGED VERY LITTLE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WWD WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...REACHING
SOMETHING OF A PEAK IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROFS TO
TRANSLATE WWD THRU THE DEEP SELY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGING FURTHER ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  78  91  76 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  77  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 071143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS
ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN MEXICO HELPS TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT...WITH SPEEDS AOA 10 KNOTS EXPECTED ALL SITES. HAVE
CARRIED OVER THE INHERITED VCSH MENTION AT THE SERN TERMINALS AS A
LITTLE BETTER GULF MOISTURE IS PROGGED OVER THESE AREAS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS...TRIGGERED IN PART BY A NELY JET
STREAK BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF VERMILION PARISH.
CARRIED A SMALL POP THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES/PARISHES...EXPANDING IT AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THIS SAME JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. N-S
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT  AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
INITIAL FOCAL PTS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE TO ISOLATED
IN NATURE...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST CHANGED VERY LITTLE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WWD WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...REACHING
SOMETHING OF A PEAK IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROFS TO
TRANSLATE WWD THRU THE DEEP SELY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGING FURTHER ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  78  91  76 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  77  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 071143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS
STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. MAIN STORY THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED SRLY WINDS
ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN MEXICO HELPS TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT...WITH SPEEDS AOA 10 KNOTS EXPECTED ALL SITES. HAVE
CARRIED OVER THE INHERITED VCSH MENTION AT THE SERN TERMINALS AS A
LITTLE BETTER GULF MOISTURE IS PROGGED OVER THESE AREAS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS...TRIGGERED IN PART BY A NELY JET
STREAK BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF VERMILION PARISH.
CARRIED A SMALL POP THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES/PARISHES...EXPANDING IT AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THIS SAME JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. N-S
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT  AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
INITIAL FOCAL PTS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE TO ISOLATED
IN NATURE...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST CHANGED VERY LITTLE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WWD WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...REACHING
SOMETHING OF A PEAK IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROFS TO
TRANSLATE WWD THRU THE DEEP SELY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGING FURTHER ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  78  91  76 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  77  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 070949
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS...TRIGGERED IN PART BY A NELY JET
STREAK BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF VERMILION PARISH.
CARRIED A SMALL POP THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES/PARISHES...EXPANDING IT AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THIS SAME JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. N-S
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT  AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
INITIAL FOCAL PTS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE TO ISOLATED
IN NATURE...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST CHANGED VERY LITTLE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WWD WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...REACHING
SOMETHING OF A PEAK IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROFS TO
TRANSLATE WWD THRU THE DEEP SELY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGING FURTHER ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  78  91  76 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  77  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 070949
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS...TRIGGERED IN PART BY A NELY JET
STREAK BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF VERMILION PARISH.
CARRIED A SMALL POP THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES/PARISHES...EXPANDING IT AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THIS SAME JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. N-S
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT  AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
INITIAL FOCAL PTS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE TO ISOLATED
IN NATURE...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST CHANGED VERY LITTLE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WWD WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...REACHING
SOMETHING OF A PEAK IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROFS TO
TRANSLATE WWD THRU THE DEEP SELY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGING FURTHER ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  78  91  76 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  77  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 070949
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL LOCATIONS...TRIGGERED IN PART BY A NELY JET
STREAK BTWN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE ERN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF VERMILION PARISH.
CARRIED A SMALL POP THIS MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES/PARISHES...EXPANDING IT AREAWIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS AS
THIS SAME JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. N-S
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT  AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
INITIAL FOCAL PTS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE TO ISOLATED
IN NATURE...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST CHANGED VERY LITTLE...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WWD WHILE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...REACHING
SOMETHING OF A PEAK IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING ONE OR MORE INVERTED TROFS TO
TRANSLATE WWD THRU THE DEEP SELY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES BACK
TO THE SOUTH...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGING FURTHER ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE SRN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  78  91  76 /  20  10  10  10
LFT  91  77  91  76 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 070109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
809 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RADARS AND STLT QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OVER THE GULF AND HRRR CONFIRMS
ISOLATED WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER ON TNITE. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
BUT DID RAISE POPS TO THE SILENT 10S INTO LCH AND LFT AND OUT OVER
THE GULF. OVERALL FCST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...LEAVING THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS 10-14Z.
OTHERWISE...S WINDS 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z. PLACED VCSH FOR AEX/LFT/ARA WHERE ~20% POPS
EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON POPS BELOW CLIMO NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MAINLY DUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE/EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...RAIN CHANCES ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE WEEK. POPS WERE GENERALLY LOWERED A
TAD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE CAME IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 00Z RUNS.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  92  75  92 /   0  20  10  10
LCH  79  90  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  76  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  79  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 070109
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
809 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...RADARS AND STLT QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OVER THE GULF AND HRRR CONFIRMS
ISOLATED WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER ON TNITE. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
BUT DID RAISE POPS TO THE SILENT 10S INTO LCH AND LFT AND OUT OVER
THE GULF. OVERALL FCST REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...LEAVING THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS 10-14Z.
OTHERWISE...S WINDS 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z. PLACED VCSH FOR AEX/LFT/ARA WHERE ~20% POPS
EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON POPS BELOW CLIMO NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MAINLY DUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE/EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...RAIN CHANCES ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE WEEK. POPS WERE GENERALLY LOWERED A
TAD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE CAME IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 00Z RUNS.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  92  75  92 /   0  20  10  10
LCH  79  90  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  76  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  79  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 062205
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
505 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...LEAVING THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS 10-14Z.
OTHERWISE...S WINDS 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z. PLACED VCSH FOR AEX/LFT/ARA WHERE ~20% POPS
EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON POPS BELOW CLIMO NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MAINLY DUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE/EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...RAIN CHANCES ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE WEEK. POPS WERE GENERALLY LOWERED A
TAD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE CAME IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 00Z RUNS.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  92  75  92 /   0  20  10  10
LCH  78  90  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KLCH 062205
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
505 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM
BEFORE DAYBREAK...LEAVING THE TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS 10-14Z.
OTHERWISE...S WINDS 10-14 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z. PLACED VCSH FOR AEX/LFT/ARA WHERE ~20% POPS
EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON POPS BELOW CLIMO NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MAINLY DUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE/EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...RAIN CHANCES ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE WEEK. POPS WERE GENERALLY LOWERED A
TAD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE CAME IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 00Z RUNS.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  92  75  92 /   0  20  10  10
LCH  78  90  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08




000
FXUS64 KLCH 061948
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON POPS BELOW CLIMO NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MAINLY DUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE/EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...RAIN CHANCES ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE WEEK. POPS WERE GENERALLY LOWERED A
TAD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE CAME IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 00Z RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  92  75  92 /   0  20  10  10
LCH  78  90  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27





000
FXUS64 KLCH 061948
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
248 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIRMASS INDICATED THROUGH THE COLUMN VERSUS THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON POPS BELOW CLIMO NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES TUESDAY AND ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MAINLY DUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AS
RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE/EASTERLY WAVE
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...RAIN CHANCES ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE WEEK. POPS WERE GENERALLY LOWERED A
TAD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE CAME IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE 00Z RUNS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  92  75  92 /   0  20  10  10
LCH  78  90  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 061729
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LIMIT ANY
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY THAT IT WILL NOT BE MENTIONED AT ANY TAF
SITE. BIT OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT KBPT/KLCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL ALSO HELP BRING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
OVERNIGHT...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 07/09Z AS
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...
ONLY SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO THE T AND TD GRIDS. GREATEST CHANGE WAS
TO THE WIND GUST GRIDS AS GUSTY WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
PROGGED TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS...IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN
A DRIER PATTERN VS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO AT
LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SURGE OF BETTER MSTR COUPLED WITH
A PAIR OF WEAK INVERTED TROFS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
BETTER POPS...BUT STILL GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  78  90  77 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  91  77  91  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  91  78 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 061729
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LIMIT ANY
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY THAT IT WILL NOT BE MENTIONED AT ANY TAF
SITE. BIT OF A GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT KBPT/KLCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL ALSO HELP BRING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
OVERNIGHT...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 07/09Z AS
SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

UPDATE...
ONLY SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO THE T AND TD GRIDS. GREATEST CHANGE WAS
TO THE WIND GUST GRIDS AS GUSTY WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
PROGGED TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS...IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN
A DRIER PATTERN VS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO AT
LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SURGE OF BETTER MSTR COUPLED WITH
A PAIR OF WEAK INVERTED TROFS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
BETTER POPS...BUT STILL GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  78  90  77 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  91  77  91  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  91  78 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 061520
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO THE T AND TD GRIDS. GREATEST CHANGE WAS
TO THE WIND GUST GRIDS AS GUSTY WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
PROGGED TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS...IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN
A DRIER PATTERN VS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO AT
LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SURGE OF BETTER MSTR COUPLED WITH
A PAIR OF WEAK INVERTED TROFS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
BETTER POPS...BUT STILL GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  78  90  77 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  91  77  91  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  91  78 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27





000
FXUS64 KLCH 061520
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO THE T AND TD GRIDS. GREATEST CHANGE WAS
TO THE WIND GUST GRIDS AS GUSTY WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
PROGGED TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS...IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN
A DRIER PATTERN VS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO AT
LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SURGE OF BETTER MSTR COUPLED WITH
A PAIR OF WEAK INVERTED TROFS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
BETTER POPS...BUT STILL GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  78  90  77 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  91  77  91  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  91  78 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 060922
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
PROGGED TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS...IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN
A DRIER PATTERN VS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO AT
LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SURGE OF BETTER MSTR COUPLED WITH
A PAIR OF WEAK INVERTED TROFS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
BETTER POPS...BUT STILL GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  78  90  77 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  91  77  91  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  91  78 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 060922
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
PROGGED TO LIFT NWD AND EXPAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS...IS PROGGED TO RESULT IN
A DRIER PATTERN VS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. BY LATE WEEK AND INTO AT
LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SURGE OF BETTER MSTR COUPLED WITH
A PAIR OF WEAK INVERTED TROFS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO
BETTER POPS...BUT STILL GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  90  78  90  77 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  91  77  91  77 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  91  78  91  78 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 060444
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...RADARS AND HRRR MODEL ARE QUIET TNITE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD BE BUILDING WHILE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE GULF CONTINUES BELOW
THE INVERSION. THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LCH. MONDAY
EVENING BOTH BPT AND LCH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DIED OFF WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS WELL. INHERITED ZONES/POP GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 060444
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...RADARS AND HRRR MODEL ARE QUIET TNITE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD BE BUILDING WHILE LIGHT FLOW FROM THE GULF CONTINUES BELOW
THE INVERSION. THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LCH. MONDAY
EVENING BOTH BPT AND LCH COULD SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DIED OFF WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS WELL. INHERITED ZONES/POP GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 060247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DIED OFF WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS WELL. INHERITED ZONES/POP GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 060247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DIED OFF WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS WELL. INHERITED ZONES/POP GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 060247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DIED OFF WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS WELL. INHERITED ZONES/POP GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 060247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY
DIED OFF WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES...AND SIMILAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AS WELL. INHERITED ZONES/POP GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THIS. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052357
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052357
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
657 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT MID LEVELS WHILE
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET
UP OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SHALLOW MARINE LAYER PRODUCING IFR CIGS BLO
2K FT AT BPT AND AEX LATER TNITE. VFR BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 052010
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052010
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
310 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATCHING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THIS EVENING.

A LARGE RIDGE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN OUR REGION THIS WEEK. A DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND EVEN BEYOND THAT...WILL ONLY BE CARRYING
20 PERCENT POPS FOR DIRUNAL DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS CLOSER TO 30
TO 40 PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND MAX HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE...A LITTLE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT HOT ENOUGH THAT PEOPLE OUTDOORS NEED TO FOLLOW GOOD
HEAT SAFETY RULES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  20
LCH  77  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  92  76  92 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  78  91  78  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15





000
FXUS64 KLCH 051137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR WILL CONT ESE TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST AT
KAEX AND LOWEST AT KBPT...BUT AGAIN WITH MESOSCALE DRIVERS LIKE
THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS AT PLAY...NAILING DOWN TIMING AT ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS A DUBIOUS PROSPECT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

24

DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

24

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 051137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR WILL CONT ESE TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST AT
KAEX AND LOWEST AT KBPT...BUT AGAIN WITH MESOSCALE DRIVERS LIKE
THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS AT PLAY...NAILING DOWN TIMING AT ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS A DUBIOUS PROSPECT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

24

DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

24

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 051137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR WILL CONT ESE TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST AT
KAEX AND LOWEST AT KBPT...BUT AGAIN WITH MESOSCALE DRIVERS LIKE
THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS AT PLAY...NAILING DOWN TIMING AT ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS A DUBIOUS PROSPECT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

24

DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

24

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 051137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR WILL CONT ESE TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST AT
KAEX AND LOWEST AT KBPT...BUT AGAIN WITH MESOSCALE DRIVERS LIKE
THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS AT PLAY...NAILING DOWN TIMING AT ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS A DUBIOUS PROSPECT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

24

DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

24

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050941
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050941
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050457
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...WILL STAY WITH VFR AND VCSH BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN, NOCTURNAL GULF DEVELOPMENT,
AND AMPLE MOISTURE. BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY VCTS AND VFR EXCEPT AEX
WHERE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM A MOISTURE POOL WILL RESULT IN
PREDOMINANT -TSRA WITH VFR TO START WITH. WILL LET SUBSEQUENT
RADAR IMAGERY DEFINE PERIODS OF ANY MVFR TEMPOS. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050457
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...WILL STAY WITH VFR AND VCSH BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN, NOCTURNAL GULF DEVELOPMENT,
AND AMPLE MOISTURE. BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY VCTS AND VFR EXCEPT AEX
WHERE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM A MOISTURE POOL WILL RESULT IN
PREDOMINANT -TSRA WITH VFR TO START WITH. WILL LET SUBSEQUENT
RADAR IMAGERY DEFINE PERIODS OF ANY MVFR TEMPOS. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 050053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 042352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11





000
FXUS64 KLCH 042013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KLCH 042013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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