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000
FXUS64 KLCH 031729
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED ABV A MILE...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS NOW ABV 6
MILES SO CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER INLAND AREAS. LEFT
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND
NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE A FEW OBS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW VSBYS LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BRIEFLY THIS AFTN
OVER COASTAL AREAS...WITH DENSE FOG RETURNING AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  64  77  35 /  20  30  40  70
KBPT  70  65  77  38 /  20  30  40  60
KAEX  73  64  77  32 /  30  30  60  80
KLFT  76  65  79  36 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-
     LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 031729
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED ABV A MILE...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS NOW ABV 6
MILES SO CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER INLAND AREAS. LEFT
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND
NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE A FEW OBS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW VSBYS LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BRIEFLY THIS AFTN
OVER COASTAL AREAS...WITH DENSE FOG RETURNING AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  64  77  35 /  20  30  40  70
KBPT  70  65  77  38 /  20  30  40  60
KAEX  73  64  77  32 /  30  30  60  80
KLFT  76  65  79  36 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-
     LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 031729
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED ABV A MILE...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS NOW ABV 6
MILES SO CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER INLAND AREAS. LEFT
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND
NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE A FEW OBS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW VSBYS LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BRIEFLY THIS AFTN
OVER COASTAL AREAS...WITH DENSE FOG RETURNING AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  64  77  35 /  20  30  40  70
KBPT  70  65  77  38 /  20  30  40  60
KAEX  73  64  77  32 /  30  30  60  80
KLFT  76  65  79  36 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-
     LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 031729
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
VSBYS HAVE LIFTED ABV A MILE...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS NOW ABV 6
MILES SO CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER INLAND AREAS. LEFT
THE ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 18Z FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND
NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE A FEW OBS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW VSBYS LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BRIEFLY THIS AFTN
OVER COASTAL AREAS...WITH DENSE FOG RETURNING AGAIN LATE THIS AFTN
OR EARLY EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  64  77  35 /  20  30  40  70
KBPT  70  65  77  38 /  20  30  40  60
KAEX  73  64  77  32 /  30  30  60  80
KLFT  76  65  79  36 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-
     LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 031728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. IFR CONDITIONS LIFTING TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. AFTER SUNSET...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  64  77  37  43 /  30  20  40  60  30
KBPT  70  65  77  38  44 /  30  30  40  60  30
KAEX  73  64  77  32  39 /  30  30  60  80  30
KLFT  76  65  79  36  42 /  30  20  30  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 031728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. IFR CONDITIONS LIFTING TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. AFTER SUNSET...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  64  77  37  43 /  30  20  40  60  30
KBPT  70  65  77  38  44 /  30  30  40  60  30
KAEX  73  64  77  32  39 /  30  30  60  80  30
KLFT  76  65  79  36  42 /  30  20  30  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 031728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. IFR CONDITIONS LIFTING TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. AFTER SUNSET...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  64  77  37  43 /  30  20  40  60  30
KBPT  70  65  77  38  44 /  30  30  40  60  30
KAEX  73  64  77  32  39 /  30  30  60  80  30
KLFT  76  65  79  36  42 /  30  20  30  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 031728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TAF SET. IFR CONDITIONS LIFTING TO
MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. AFTER SUNSET...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  64  77  37  43 /  30  20  40  60  30
KBPT  70  65  77  38  44 /  30  30  40  60  30
KAEX  73  64  77  32  39 /  30  30  60  80  30
KLFT  76  65  79  36  42 /  30  20  30  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 031621
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  64  77  35 /  30  30  40  70
KBPT  70  65  77  38 /  30  30  40  60
KAEX  73  64  77  32 /  30  30  60  80
KLFT  76  65  79  36 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-
     IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-
     ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
     NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-
     SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 031621
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1021 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE IMPROVEMENTS IN VISBY. WARM FRONT
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF I-10 WITH BETTER VSBYS JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DENSE SEA FOG PERSISTS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SINCE A FEW POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL
LINGER OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH 11AM-NOON...DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS THE RAPID VARYING VSBYS CAN STILL MAKE
FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT THE SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A TSTM CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS OFF THE GULF SPREADS NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  64  77  35 /  30  30  40  70
KBPT  70  65  77  38 /  30  30  40  60
KAEX  73  64  77  32 /  30  30  60  80
KLFT  76  65  79  36 /  30  20  30  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-
     IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-
     ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
     NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-
     SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 031248
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  65  71  37  40 /  20  20  20  70  50
KBPT  72  64  73  38  41 /  20  20  20  70  50
KAEX  78  66  78  31  39 /  20  20  40  80  30
KLFT  76  68  74  35  39 /  20  20  30  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 031248
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  65  71  37  40 /  20  20  20  70  50
KBPT  72  64  73  38  41 /  20  20  20  70  50
KAEX  78  66  78  31  39 /  20  20  40  80  30
KLFT  76  68  74  35  39 /  20  20  30  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 031248
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...LIFR AND IFR VIS AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING TODAY AS FOG AND STRATUS SLOWLY MIX OUT AND
LIFT. CEILINGS MAY BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE FOG WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VIS EXPECTED AGAIN. LIGHT NE WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE TO S BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  65  71  37  40 /  20  20  20  70  50
KBPT  72  64  73  38  41 /  20  20  20  70  50
KAEX  78  66  78  31  39 /  20  20  40  80  30
KLFT  76  68  74  35  39 /  20  20  30  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 031236
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  65  71  37  40 /  20  20  20  70  50
KBPT  72  64  73  38  41 /  20  20  20  70  50
KAEX  78  66  78  31  39 /  20  20  40  80  30
KLFT  76  68  74  35  39 /  20  20  30  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 031236
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  65  71  37  40 /  20  20  20  70  50
KBPT  72  64  73  38  41 /  20  20  20  70  50
KAEX  78  66  78  31  39 /  20  20  40  80  30
KLFT  76  68  74  35  39 /  20  20  30  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 031236
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  65  71  37  40 /  20  20  20  70  50
KBPT  72  64  73  38  41 /  20  20  20  70  50
KAEX  78  66  78  31  39 /  20  20  40  80  30
KLFT  76  68  74  35  39 /  20  20  30  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 031236
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED EURO DATA LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS ON SUFFICIENTLY
COLD TEMPS FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING JASPER, LEESVILLE, ALEXANDRIA AND MARKSVILLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY.
WENT WITH MINIMAL ICE ACCUMULATION...ABOUT A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  65  71  37  40 /  20  20  20  70  50
KBPT  72  64  73  38  41 /  20  20  20  70  50
KAEX  78  66  78  31  39 /  20  20  40  80  30
KLFT  76  68  74  35  39 /  20  20  30  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 031111
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
511 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND NOON AS A VERY
MOIST LAYER IS ENCOUNTERING A WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF
THE GULF. WARM SATURATED AIR FROM THE LOWER GULF HAS BEEN
ADVECTED OVER COOLER WATERS AS WELL AS COOL GROUND COVER AND WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS...THE RESULT HAS BEEN THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TODAY
DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIRMASS WHICH AT JUST UNDER 1.5
PRECIP WATER WAS NEARLY TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS MORE MOIST THEN IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS...POSSIBLY A HARD FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AND A LIGHT FREEZE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. OF
SOME CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL BE ENDING JUST AS THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE IN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING A FEW HOURS BEFORE TEMPS LOWER TO THE
FREEZING MARK LATE THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
OVERRUNNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROF PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MUCH WARMER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S AS WARM GULF AIR MOVES IN. DID NOT GO QUITE AS
HIGH AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD ALSO MODERATE
OUR TEMPS TNITE...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT, MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...CHOSE TO BLEND IN THE WARMER EUROPEAN SOLUTION AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS A BIT EARLY TO GO
WITH THE MORE AGRESSIVE GFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  65  71  37  40 /  20  20  20  70  50
KBPT  72  64  73  38  41 /  20  20  20  70  50
KAEX  78  66  78  31  39 /  20  20  40  80  30
KLFT  76  68  74  35  39 /  20  20  30  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 030540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS
ENVELOPED THE AREA AS EXPECTED...WITH IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW LIKELY
TO BE SLUGGISH. FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS POINT TO LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW EVENING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...AND MORE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SEA FOG OFFSHORE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES...AS WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE
GROUND INLAND CREATING THE SAME EFFECT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THIS
WILL LIKELY GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. THUS...HAVE
ISSUED AN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR THE COAST...AND
AREA WIDE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL ~10 AM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10...AND NEAR NOON FOR THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES
AND COASTAL WATERS. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S...ALONG WITH INCREASE LIFT ALOFT...TO MIX OUT THE
LAYER INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR EAST CAMERON-
     IBERIA-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EVANGELINE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
     LAFAYETTE-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR HARDIN-NORTHERN
     JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN
     NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 030540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS
ENVELOPED THE AREA AS EXPECTED...WITH IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW LIKELY
TO BE SLUGGISH. FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS POINT TO LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW EVENING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...AND MORE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SEA FOG OFFSHORE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES...AS WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE
GROUND INLAND CREATING THE SAME EFFECT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THIS
WILL LIKELY GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. THUS...HAVE
ISSUED AN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR THE COAST...AND
AREA WIDE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL ~10 AM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10...AND NEAR NOON FOR THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES
AND COASTAL WATERS. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S...ALONG WITH INCREASE LIFT ALOFT...TO MIX OUT THE
LAYER INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR EAST CAMERON-
     IBERIA-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EVANGELINE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
     LAFAYETTE-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR HARDIN-NORTHERN
     JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN
     NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 030540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS
ENVELOPED THE AREA AS EXPECTED...WITH IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW LIKELY
TO BE SLUGGISH. FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS POINT TO LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW EVENING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...AND MORE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SEA FOG OFFSHORE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES...AS WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE
GROUND INLAND CREATING THE SAME EFFECT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THIS
WILL LIKELY GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. THUS...HAVE
ISSUED AN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR THE COAST...AND
AREA WIDE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL ~10 AM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10...AND NEAR NOON FOR THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES
AND COASTAL WATERS. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S...ALONG WITH INCREASE LIFT ALOFT...TO MIX OUT THE
LAYER INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR EAST CAMERON-
     IBERIA-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EVANGELINE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
     LAFAYETTE-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR HARDIN-NORTHERN
     JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN
     NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 030540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS
ENVELOPED THE AREA AS EXPECTED...WITH IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW LIKELY
TO BE SLUGGISH. FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS POINT TO LOWERING
CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW EVENING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...AND MORE TOWARD MIDNIGHT AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SEA FOG OFFSHORE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES...AS WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE
GROUND INLAND CREATING THE SAME EFFECT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THIS
WILL LIKELY GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. THUS...HAVE
ISSUED AN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR THE COAST...AND
AREA WIDE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL ~10 AM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10...AND NEAR NOON FOR THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES
AND COASTAL WATERS. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S...ALONG WITH INCREASE LIFT ALOFT...TO MIX OUT THE
LAYER INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR EAST CAMERON-
     IBERIA-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EVANGELINE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
     LAFAYETTE-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR JEFFERSON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR HARDIN-NORTHERN
     JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN
     NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 030120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SEA FOG OFFSHORE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES...AS WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE
GROUND INLAND CREATING THE SAME EFFECT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THIS
WILL LIKELY GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. THUS...HAVE
ISSUED AN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR THE COAST...AND
AREA WIDE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL ~10 AM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10...AND NEAR NOON FOR THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES
AND COASTAL WATERS. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S...ALONG WITH INCREASE LIFT ALOFT...TO MIX OUT THE
LAYER INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74  36 /  20  30  30  40  60
KBPT  60  75  64  74  37 /  20  30  30  40  60
KAEX  50  75  64  71  31 /  20  30  30  60  80
KLFT  61  76  65  76  35 /  20  30  30  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
     BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
     VERNON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...
     NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN
     NEWTON...TYLER.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 030120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
720 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SEA FOG OFFSHORE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES/PARISHES...AS WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO THE
GROUND INLAND CREATING THE SAME EFFECT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THIS
WILL LIKELY GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. THUS...HAVE
ISSUED AN DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS EVENING FOR THE COAST...AND
AREA WIDE BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED UNTIL ~10 AM ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10...AND NEAR NOON FOR THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES
AND COASTAL WATERS. BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 70S...ALONG WITH INCREASE LIFT ALOFT...TO MIX OUT THE
LAYER INTO A LOW CLOUD DECK WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74  36 /  20  30  30  40  60
KBPT  60  75  64  74  37 /  20  30  30  40  60
KAEX  50  75  64  71  31 /  20  30  30  60  80
KLFT  61  76  65  76  35 /  20  30  30  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
     BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
     VERNON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...
     NORTHERN NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN
     NEWTON...TYLER.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 030012
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS64 KLCH 030012
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 030012
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 030012
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TERMINALS CONTINUE TO RESIDE ON THE COOL SIDE OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ORIENTED SW TO NE ALONG ROUGHLY A BATON ROUGE TO FRESHWATER
CITY LINE. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY PREVAILED...THOUGH
KBPT DID MANAGE MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTH/WASH OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY 12Z TUE. THIS IS A RIPE STAGE FOR AN
ADVECTIVE FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS EVENT...AS THE SHALLOW COOL AND
MOIST INLAND AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY REPLACED WITH A WARM AND MOIST
MARINE ONE. CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO FALL THIS EVENING PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF THIS TRANSITION OWING SIMPLY TO DIURNAL
COOLING...SO THE END RESULT IS GOING TO BE A LONG PERIOD OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS...WITH PROGGED IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR PERHAPS VFR NOT
TAKING PLACE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-SABINE LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13







000
FXUS64 KLCH 022141
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  75  64  73 /  20  30  30  50
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 022141
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPR LVL LOW NR THE SRN CAL
COAST...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REGION
IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN A PREVAILING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROF
REMAINS SITUATED MORE OR LESS FM SRN MS SW TOWARD THE COASTAL
WATERS/WRN GULF.

AREAS OF FOG PERSIST IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WITH DENSE FOG OVER
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A SHARP
DEMARCATION BETWEEN WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...AND COOLER AIR NW OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED LITTLE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL IN THE UPPER 40S ACRS CNTL LA...MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
A SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE FRONT...FROM N OF BTR
SW TO CROWLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT...USHERING WARM AIR BACK
ACRS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN CLIMB A FEW DEGREES TOWARD
MORNING AS SLY FLOW RETURNS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO
RETURN TONIGHT AND PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HELD OFF ON ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND EXTENT.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS
IN A SLY LOW LVL FLOW. PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY AS THE
TROF OVER SRN CAL MOVES EAST. THE MOIST AIRMASS NR THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF FOG IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHOWER CHCS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS DEEPEST MOISTURE
LIFTS NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT...BUT WILL KEEP SLT/LOW END CHC
OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRES WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY IN ITS
WAKE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH LOWS BY THURSDAY MORNING NR FREEZING NORTH TO MID
30S SOUTH ALONG WITH STRONG NLY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. DIURNAL HEATING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A BOOST TO
INSTABILITY BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AS AN UPR SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY 12Z THURSDAY....TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSING IN ON THE
FREEZING MARK ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL LA. LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE AREAS MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL...AND ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABV FREEZING.

IN THE LONG TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT SLT/LOW END CHC POPS
IN THE FCST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
QUASI-ZONAL WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL BUT GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LT SELY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE STATIONARY FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF DENSE SEA FOG CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THESE SELY WINDS BRING WARM AND
MOIST AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS
WAKE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WATCH ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  75  64  73 /  20  30  30  50
KBPT  60  75  64  74 /  20  30  30  40
KAEX  50  75  64  71 /  20  30  30  60
KLFT  61  76  65  76 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 021915
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WITH LOW CEILINGS TO HANG OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP. VSBY XPCD TO DROP
AFTER SUNSET ALONG W/ CEILINGS TO LIFR/IFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
AREAS OF FOG ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH DENSE
FOG HAS LIFTED ACRS SE TX/SW LA AND FORMED ACRS THE ACADIANA
REGION. GIVEN THIS DISTRIBUTION...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SE TX/SW LA AND ISSUED IT FOR THE ACADIANA
PARISHES WITH AN EXPIRATION AROUND 11 AM. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH
STRETCHED FM THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON PARISH/JEFFERSON
COUNTY NE TOWARD BTR. THIS IS LEADING TO A RATHER WIDE TEMP RANGE
AS WELL...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACRS ACADIANA ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S TO ITS WEST. A DISTURBANCE
PASSING OVER THE REGION IS SETTING OFF SCT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL AND
SW LA AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND THE SFC BOUNDARY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX WITH
HI-RES/HRRR/RUC/NAM GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE AFTN...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  75  64  74  36 /  20  30  30  50  70
KBPT  63  75  64  73  36 /  20  30  30  50  60
KAEX  50  74  63  69  31 /  30  30  40  70  70
KLFT  61  76  65  74  35 /  20  30  30  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 021915
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WITH LOW CEILINGS TO HANG OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP. VSBY XPCD TO DROP
AFTER SUNSET ALONG W/ CEILINGS TO LIFR/IFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
AREAS OF FOG ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH DENSE
FOG HAS LIFTED ACRS SE TX/SW LA AND FORMED ACRS THE ACADIANA
REGION. GIVEN THIS DISTRIBUTION...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SE TX/SW LA AND ISSUED IT FOR THE ACADIANA
PARISHES WITH AN EXPIRATION AROUND 11 AM. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH
STRETCHED FM THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON PARISH/JEFFERSON
COUNTY NE TOWARD BTR. THIS IS LEADING TO A RATHER WIDE TEMP RANGE
AS WELL...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACRS ACADIANA ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S TO ITS WEST. A DISTURBANCE
PASSING OVER THE REGION IS SETTING OFF SCT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL AND
SW LA AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND THE SFC BOUNDARY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX WITH
HI-RES/HRRR/RUC/NAM GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE AFTN...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  75  64  74  36 /  20  30  30  50  70
KBPT  63  75  64  73  36 /  20  30  30  50  60
KAEX  50  74  63  69  31 /  30  30  40  70  70
KLFT  61  76  65  74  35 /  20  30  30  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 021915
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WITH LOW CEILINGS TO HANG OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP. VSBY XPCD TO DROP
AFTER SUNSET ALONG W/ CEILINGS TO LIFR/IFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
AREAS OF FOG ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH DENSE
FOG HAS LIFTED ACRS SE TX/SW LA AND FORMED ACRS THE ACADIANA
REGION. GIVEN THIS DISTRIBUTION...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SE TX/SW LA AND ISSUED IT FOR THE ACADIANA
PARISHES WITH AN EXPIRATION AROUND 11 AM. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH
STRETCHED FM THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON PARISH/JEFFERSON
COUNTY NE TOWARD BTR. THIS IS LEADING TO A RATHER WIDE TEMP RANGE
AS WELL...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACRS ACADIANA ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S TO ITS WEST. A DISTURBANCE
PASSING OVER THE REGION IS SETTING OFF SCT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL AND
SW LA AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND THE SFC BOUNDARY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX WITH
HI-RES/HRRR/RUC/NAM GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE AFTN...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  75  64  74  36 /  20  30  30  50  70
KBPT  63  75  64  73  36 /  20  30  30  50  60
KAEX  50  74  63  69  31 /  30  30  40  70  70
KLFT  61  76  65  74  35 /  20  30  30  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 021915
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WITH LOW CEILINGS TO HANG OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP. VSBY XPCD TO DROP
AFTER SUNSET ALONG W/ CEILINGS TO LIFR/IFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
AREAS OF FOG ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH DENSE
FOG HAS LIFTED ACRS SE TX/SW LA AND FORMED ACRS THE ACADIANA
REGION. GIVEN THIS DISTRIBUTION...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SE TX/SW LA AND ISSUED IT FOR THE ACADIANA
PARISHES WITH AN EXPIRATION AROUND 11 AM. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH
STRETCHED FM THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON PARISH/JEFFERSON
COUNTY NE TOWARD BTR. THIS IS LEADING TO A RATHER WIDE TEMP RANGE
AS WELL...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACRS ACADIANA ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S TO ITS WEST. A DISTURBANCE
PASSING OVER THE REGION IS SETTING OFF SCT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL AND
SW LA AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND THE SFC BOUNDARY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX WITH
HI-RES/HRRR/RUC/NAM GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE AFTN...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  75  64  74  36 /  20  30  30  50  70
KBPT  63  75  64  73  36 /  20  30  30  50  60
KAEX  50  74  63  69  31 /  30  30  40  70  70
KLFT  61  76  65  74  35 /  20  30  30  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 021626
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1026 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AREAS OF FOG ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH DENSE
FOG HAS LIFTED ACRS SE TX/SW LA AND FORMED ACRS THE ACADIANA
REGION. GIVEN THIS DISTRIBUTION...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SE TX/SW LA AND ISSUED IT FOR THE ACADIANA
PARISHES WITH AN EXPIRATION AROUND 11 AM. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH
STRETCHED FM THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON PARISH/JEFFERSON
COUNTY NE TOWARD BTR. THIS IS LEADING TO A RATHER WIDE TEMP RANGE
AS WELL...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACRS ACADIANA ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROF AND UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S TO ITS WEST. A DISTURBANCE
PASSING OVER THE REGION IS SETTING OFF SCT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL AND
SW LA AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE AND THE SFC BOUNDARY.

MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
REFLECT RECENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS/WX WITH
HI-RES/HRRR/RUC/NAM GUIDANCE ALL SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE AFTN...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN OVERNIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
.BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  58  75  64 /  60  20  30  30
KBPT  64  63  75  64 /  50  20  30  30
KAEX  53  50  74  63 /  70  30  30  40
KLFT  69  61  76  65 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IBERIA-
     LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
     VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 021133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
..BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  62  75  64  74 /  60  20  30  30  50
KBPT  64  63  75  64  73 /  60  20  30  30  50
KAEX  53  50  74  63  69 /  50  30  30  40  70
KLFT  70  61  76  65  74 /  50  20  30  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 021133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
..BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  62  75  64  74 /  60  20  30  30  50
KBPT  64  63  75  64  73 /  60  20  30  30  50
KAEX  53  50  74  63  69 /  50  30  30  40  70
KLFT  70  61  76  65  74 /  50  20  30  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 021133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
..BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  62  75  64  74 /  60  20  30  30  50
KBPT  64  63  75  64  73 /  60  20  30  30  50
KAEX  53  50  74  63  69 /  50  30  30  40  70
KLFT  70  61  76  65  74 /  50  20  30  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 021133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
533 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...A SOUPY MESS OF LGT RAIN, LIFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR IN
LOW CIGS AND FOG DUE TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.
THIS BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY
NIGHT LEAVING A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOADED WITH MOISTURE AND
ADVECTING OVER COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS IDEAL FOR SEA FOG. BEST
ALTERNATE WOULD BE AEX BUT ONLY FOR VIS LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE LIFR
CIGS THERE AS WELL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
..BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  62  75  64  74 /  60  20  30  30  50
KBPT  64  63  75  64  73 /  60  20  30  30  50
KAEX  53  50  74  63  69 /  50  30  30  40  70
KLFT  70  61  76  65  74 /  50  20  30  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 020938
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  62  75  64  74 /  60  20  30  30  50
KBPT  64  63  75  64  73 /  60  20  30  30  50
KAEX  53  50  74  63  69 /  50  30  30  40  70
KLFT  70  61  76  65  74 /  50  20  30  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 020938
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A MESSY FORECAST THIS WEEK...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...EXTENDING INLAND IN SE TX AND SW LA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS MAKING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE DENSE FOG DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY WAVERS FROM THE
I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOG WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THEN THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES GOES DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

PRECIP WATERS SHOW WE ARE QUITE ABOVE NORMAL...SO IT MAKES FOR A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK...AND DUE TO TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...A SMALL
CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING IN EAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

IN THE COASTAL WATERS...AFTER THE FOG PROBLEMS STARTING THIS WEEK
...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL GET QUITE
STRONG AND ARE LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  62  75  64  74 /  60  20  30  30  50
KBPT  64  63  75  64  73 /  60  20  30  30  50
KAEX  53  50  74  63  69 /  50  30  30  40  70
KLFT  70  61  76  65  74 /  50  20  30  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 020351
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT IS WAVERING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCES RIDING ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
HAVE PRODUCED AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 02/00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWS THE PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.61
INCHES AND JUST BELOW TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION. SO SOME OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. JUST CHECKED
THE DAILY RAINFALL FOR KLCH OFF THE ASOS...AND SO FAR 2.89 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS BEEN COLLECTED...WHICH WILL BREAK THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR MARCH 1 OF 2.81 INCHES FROM BACK IN 2002.

THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE IS THE FOG. WARM MOIST AIR RIDING OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE AREA LAKE WATERS...IS
PRODUCING DENSE SEA FOG. A MARINE DENSE SEA FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM LOCAL MONDAY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
THE LAKES AND BAY. THIS IS VERIFYING SO FAR...WITH PLATFORM
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS AND THE HELIPORT AT CAMERON BOTH
REPORTING 1/4 OF A MILE...AND CRITERIA IS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
EARLIER...VISIBILITIES FURTHER INLAND REDUCED TO NEAR DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN
SOME. HOWEVER...BELIEVE AS COASTAL TROUGH WAVERS BETWEEN I-10 AND
THE COAST...THAT FOG WILL AGAIN THICKEN AT TIMES...SO HAVE
INCLUDED THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES AROUND SABINE AND CALCASIEU
LAKE IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM LOCAL MONDAY...AS THE
WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY TO SEE IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD
TO INCLUDED PARISHES SURROUNDING VERMILION BAY BEFORE MORNING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRETTY DISMAL AVIATION FORECAST FOR AREA TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HRS. SCT/NUM SHRA COUPLED WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY/CEILINGS THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LIFR AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR
BPT/LCH WITH DENSE MARINE FOG LIKELY THRU MID MORNING MON. ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SE TX/S
LA MON...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT SHRA EXPECTED.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER LOCAL
88DS...IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION OF WARM MOIST AIRMASS/INLAND-
DRIFTING SFC TROF/PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. LATEST SHORT-RANGE
HIGH-RES MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL...WHILE
ALSO DELIVERING YET ANOTHER ROUND LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL LIKELY
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AREA GIVE WAY
TO CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. OTHER MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERRIDING 50S/60 SST OVER THE NWRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEA FOG WELL INTO
MONDAY...AND WITH A CONTINUED SERLY TO SRLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND
THE SFC TROF WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS BEGIN TO SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LATER ON.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE SFC TROF BEGIN WASHING OUT AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL THAT TIME AS NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES IS NOTED DURING THE TIME FRAME. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO BETTER DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER SO
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SMALLER POPS LINGER DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PASS ALOFT TIL THEN. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE A WARM DAY WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORMAL MAXES FOR
EARLY MARCH.

REAL FUN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF IT...
SPC IS MENTIONING TODAY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE STORMS TO ZERO. THEREAFTER COLD AIR OF
CANADIAN SOURCE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ENGULF THE AREA...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY DROPPING 30-40 DEGREES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GOOD OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE OVER CENTRAL
LA/INTERIOR SERN TX...STARTING MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MID-MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS/SOUNDINGS DO WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF ALL
WITH READINGS WELL INLAND DROPPING TO POSSIBLY THE MID 20S. CLOSER
TO THE COAST MINS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WHICH COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AS LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME
PRECIP AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHES NEWD...STAY
TUNED.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE YET ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE MIXED ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK
WITH...THUS ONLY SMALL POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE OUT PERIODS IN
THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY BASED ON VARIOUS REPORTS FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS. COULD HAVE MADE THIS ADVISORY RUN ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BASED ON FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BUT WENT AHEAD AND
EXPIRED IT AT 12Z TOMORROW...WILL LET EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS
DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS ADVISORY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE MAIN STORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE STRONG NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS LOOK CERTAIN AND GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED BY
MID-WEEK AS WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LOOK
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  71  60  76  64 /  50  50  20  30  30
KBPT  58  70  62  77  63 /  50  50  20  30  30
KAEX  50  55  52  78  62 /  60  60  30  30  40
KLFT  64  74  63  78  65 /  50  40  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 020351
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
A COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT IS WAVERING JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCES RIDING ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
HAVE PRODUCED AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH 02/00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWS THE PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.61
INCHES AND JUST BELOW TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION. SO SOME OF THE
STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. JUST CHECKED
THE DAILY RAINFALL FOR KLCH OFF THE ASOS...AND SO FAR 2.89 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS BEEN COLLECTED...WHICH WILL BREAK THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR MARCH 1 OF 2.81 INCHES FROM BACK IN 2002.

THE OTHER MAIN ISSUE IS THE FOG. WARM MOIST AIR RIDING OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE AREA LAKE WATERS...IS
PRODUCING DENSE SEA FOG. A MARINE DENSE SEA FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM LOCAL MONDAY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND
THE LAKES AND BAY. THIS IS VERIFYING SO FAR...WITH PLATFORM
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS AND THE HELIPORT AT CAMERON BOTH
REPORTING 1/4 OF A MILE...AND CRITERIA IS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
EARLIER...VISIBILITIES FURTHER INLAND REDUCED TO NEAR DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN
SOME. HOWEVER...BELIEVE AS COASTAL TROUGH WAVERS BETWEEN I-10 AND
THE COAST...THAT FOG WILL AGAIN THICKEN AT TIMES...SO HAVE
INCLUDED THE COUNTIES AND PARISHES AROUND SABINE AND CALCASIEU
LAKE IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM LOCAL MONDAY...AS THE
WORSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY TO SEE IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD
TO INCLUDED PARISHES SURROUNDING VERMILION BAY BEFORE MORNING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRETTY DISMAL AVIATION FORECAST FOR AREA TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HRS. SCT/NUM SHRA COUPLED WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY/CEILINGS THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LIFR AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR
BPT/LCH WITH DENSE MARINE FOG LIKELY THRU MID MORNING MON. ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SE TX/S
LA MON...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT SHRA EXPECTED.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER LOCAL
88DS...IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION OF WARM MOIST AIRMASS/INLAND-
DRIFTING SFC TROF/PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. LATEST SHORT-RANGE
HIGH-RES MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL...WHILE
ALSO DELIVERING YET ANOTHER ROUND LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL LIKELY
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AREA GIVE WAY
TO CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. OTHER MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERRIDING 50S/60 SST OVER THE NWRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEA FOG WELL INTO
MONDAY...AND WITH A CONTINUED SERLY TO SRLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND
THE SFC TROF WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS BEGIN TO SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LATER ON.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE SFC TROF BEGIN WASHING OUT AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL THAT TIME AS NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES IS NOTED DURING THE TIME FRAME. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO BETTER DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER SO
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SMALLER POPS LINGER DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PASS ALOFT TIL THEN. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE A WARM DAY WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORMAL MAXES FOR
EARLY MARCH.

REAL FUN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF IT...
SPC IS MENTIONING TODAY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE STORMS TO ZERO. THEREAFTER COLD AIR OF
CANADIAN SOURCE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ENGULF THE AREA...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY DROPPING 30-40 DEGREES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GOOD OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE OVER CENTRAL
LA/INTERIOR SERN TX...STARTING MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MID-MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS/SOUNDINGS DO WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF ALL
WITH READINGS WELL INLAND DROPPING TO POSSIBLY THE MID 20S. CLOSER
TO THE COAST MINS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WHICH COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AS LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME
PRECIP AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHES NEWD...STAY
TUNED.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE YET ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE MIXED ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK
WITH...THUS ONLY SMALL POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE OUT PERIODS IN
THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY BASED ON VARIOUS REPORTS FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS. COULD HAVE MADE THIS ADVISORY RUN ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BASED ON FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BUT WENT AHEAD AND
EXPIRED IT AT 12Z TOMORROW...WILL LET EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS
DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS ADVISORY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE MAIN STORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE STRONG NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS LOOK CERTAIN AND GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED BY
MID-WEEK AS WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LOOK
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  71  60  76  64 /  50  50  20  30  30
KBPT  58  70  62  77  63 /  50  50  20  30  30
KAEX  50  55  52  78  62 /  60  60  30  30  40
KLFT  64  74  63  78  65 /  50  40  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 012310
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY DISMAL AVIATION FORECAST FOR AREA TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HRS. SCT/NUM SHRA COUPLED WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY/CEILINGS THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LIFR AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR
BPT/LCH WITH DENSE MARINE FOG LIKELY THRU MID MORNING MON. ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SE TX/S
LA MON...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT SHRA EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER LOCAL
88DS...IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION OF WARM MOIST AIRMASS/INLAND-
DRIFTING SFC TROF/PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. LATEST SHORT-RANGE
HIGH-RES MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL...WHILE
ALSO DELIVERING YET ANOTHER ROUND LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL LIKELY
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AREA GIVE WAY
TO CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. OTHER MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERRIDING 50S/60 SST OVER THE NWRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEA FOG WELL INTO
MONDAY...AND WITH A CONTINUED SERLY TO SRLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND
THE SFC TROF WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS BEGIN TO SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LATER ON.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE SFC TROF BEGIN WASHING OUT AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL THAT TIME AS NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES IS NOTED DURING THE TIME FRAME. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO BETTER DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER SO
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SMALLER POPS LINGER DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PASS ALOFT TIL THEN. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE A WARM DAY WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORMAL MAXES FOR
EARLY MARCH.

REAL FUN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF IT...
SPC IS MENTIONING TODAY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE STORMS TO ZERO. THEREAFTER COLD AIR OF
CANADIAN SOURCE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ENGULF THE AREA...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY DROPPING 30-40 DEGREES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GOOD OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE OVER CENTRAL
LA/INTERIOR SERN TX...STARTING MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MID-MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS/SOUNDINGS DO WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF ALL
WITH READINGS WELL INLAND DROPPING TO POSSIBLY THE MID 20S. CLOSER
TO THE COAST MINS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WHICH COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AS LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME
PRECIP AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHES NEWD...STAY
TUNED.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE YET ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE MIXED ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK
WITH...THUS ONLY SMALL POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE OUT PERIODS IN
THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY BASED ON VARIOUS REPORTS FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS. COULD HAVE MADE THIS ADVISORY RUN ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BASED ON FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BUT WENT AHEAD AND
EXPIRED IT AT 12Z TOMORROW...WILL LET EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS
DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS ADVISORY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE MAIN STORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE STRONG NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS LOOK CERTAIN AND GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED BY
MID-WEEK AS WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LOOK
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  71  60  76  64 /  40  50  30  30  30
KBPT  58  70  62  77  63 /  40  50  30  30  30
KAEX  50  55  52  78  62 /  60  60  30  30  40
KLFT  63  74  63  78  65 /  30  50  30  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 012310
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY DISMAL AVIATION FORECAST FOR AREA TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HRS. SCT/NUM SHRA COUPLED WITH MVFR/IFR VSBY/CEILINGS THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY LOWERING TO LIFR AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY FOR
BPT/LCH WITH DENSE MARINE FOG LIKELY THRU MID MORNING MON. ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SE TX/S
LA MON...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT SHRA EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER LOCAL
88DS...IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION OF WARM MOIST AIRMASS/INLAND-
DRIFTING SFC TROF/PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. LATEST SHORT-RANGE
HIGH-RES MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL...WHILE
ALSO DELIVERING YET ANOTHER ROUND LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL LIKELY
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AREA GIVE WAY
TO CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. OTHER MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERRIDING 50S/60 SST OVER THE NWRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEA FOG WELL INTO
MONDAY...AND WITH A CONTINUED SERLY TO SRLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND
THE SFC TROF WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS BEGIN TO SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LATER ON.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE SFC TROF BEGIN WASHING OUT AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL THAT TIME AS NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES IS NOTED DURING THE TIME FRAME. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO BETTER DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER SO
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SMALLER POPS LINGER DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PASS ALOFT TIL THEN. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE A WARM DAY WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORMAL MAXES FOR
EARLY MARCH.

REAL FUN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF IT...
SPC IS MENTIONING TODAY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE STORMS TO ZERO. THEREAFTER COLD AIR OF
CANADIAN SOURCE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ENGULF THE AREA...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY DROPPING 30-40 DEGREES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GOOD OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE OVER CENTRAL
LA/INTERIOR SERN TX...STARTING MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MID-MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS/SOUNDINGS DO WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF ALL
WITH READINGS WELL INLAND DROPPING TO POSSIBLY THE MID 20S. CLOSER
TO THE COAST MINS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WHICH COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AS LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME
PRECIP AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHES NEWD...STAY
TUNED.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE YET ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE MIXED ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK
WITH...THUS ONLY SMALL POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE OUT PERIODS IN
THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY BASED ON VARIOUS REPORTS FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS. COULD HAVE MADE THIS ADVISORY RUN ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BASED ON FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BUT WENT AHEAD AND
EXPIRED IT AT 12Z TOMORROW...WILL LET EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS
DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS ADVISORY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE MAIN STORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE STRONG NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS LOOK CERTAIN AND GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED BY
MID-WEEK AS WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LOOK
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  71  60  76  64 /  40  50  30  30  30
KBPT  58  70  62  77  63 /  40  50  30  30  30
KAEX  50  55  52  78  62 /  60  60  30  30  40
KLFT  63  74  63  78  65 /  30  50  30  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 012131
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER LOCAL
88DS...IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION OF WARM MOIST AIRMASS/INLAND-
DRIFTING SFC TROF/PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. LATEST SHORT-RANGE
HIGH-RES MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL...WHILE
ALSO DELIVERING YET ANOTHER ROUND LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL LIKELY
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AREA GIVE WAY
TO CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. OTHER MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERRIDING 50S/60 SST OVER THE NWRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEA FOG WELL INTO
MONDAY...AND WITH A CONTINUED SERLY TO SRLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND
THE SFC TROF WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS BEGIN TO SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LATER ON.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE SFC TROF BEGIN WASHING OUT AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL THAT TIME AS NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES IS NOTED DURING THE TIME FRAME. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO BETTER DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER SO
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SMALLER POPS LINGER DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PASS ALOFT TIL THEN. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE A WARM DAY WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORMAL MAXES FOR
EARLY MARCH.

REAL FUN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF IT...
SPC IS MENTIONING TODAY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE STORMS TO ZERO. THEREAFTER COLD AIR OF
CANADIAN SOURCE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ENGULF THE AREA...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY DROPPING 30-40 DEGREES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GOOD OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE OVER CENTRAL
LA/INTERIOR SERN TX...STARTING MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MID-MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS/SOUNDINGS DO WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF ALL
WITH READINGS WELL INLAND DROPPING TO POSSIBLY THE MID 20S. CLOSER
TO THE COAST MINS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WHICH COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AS LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME
PRECIP AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHES NEWD...STAY
TUNED.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE YET ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE MIXED ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK
WITH...THUS ONLY SMALL POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE OUT PERIODS IN
THIS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY BASED ON VARIOUS REPORTS FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS. COULD HAVE MADE THIS ADVISORY RUN ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BASED ON FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BUT WENT AHEAD AND
EXPIRED IT AT 12Z TOMORROW...WILL LET EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS
DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS ADVISORY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE MAIN STORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE STRONG NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS LOOK CERTAIN AND GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED BY
MID-WEEK AS WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LOOK
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  71  60  76  64 /  40  50  30  30  30
KBPT  58  70  62  77  63 /  40  50  30  30  30
KAEX  50  55  52  78  62 /  60  60  30  30  40
KLFT  63  74  63  78  65 /  30  50  30  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 012131
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS...WITH A FEW STORMS...CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY THE ERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PER LOCAL
88DS...IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION OF WARM MOIST AIRMASS/INLAND-
DRIFTING SFC TROF/PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. LATEST SHORT-RANGE
HIGH-RES MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL...WHILE
ALSO DELIVERING YET ANOTHER ROUND LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL LIKELY
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AREA GIVE WAY
TO CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. OTHER MAIN STORY LOOKS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERRIDING 50S/60 SST OVER THE NWRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEA FOG WELL INTO
MONDAY...AND WITH A CONTINUED SERLY TO SRLY FLOW EXPECTED BEHIND
THE SFC TROF WILL LIKELY SEE SOME AREAS BEGIN TO SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS LATER ON.

MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE SFC TROF BEGIN WASHING OUT AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED UNTIL THAT TIME AS NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR
SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE FEATURES IS NOTED DURING THE TIME FRAME. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO BETTER DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER SO
THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SMALLER POPS LINGER DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PASS ALOFT TIL THEN. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE A WARM DAY WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORMAL MAXES FOR
EARLY MARCH.

REAL FUN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF IT...
SPC IS MENTIONING TODAY THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL LIMITED INSTABILITY COULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE STORMS TO ZERO. THEREAFTER COLD AIR OF
CANADIAN SOURCE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY ENGULF THE AREA...WITH TEMPS
LIKELY DROPPING 30-40 DEGREES BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY MORNING. GOOD OVERRUNNING IS PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE OVER CENTRAL
LA/INTERIOR SERN TX...STARTING MAINLY TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO MID-MORNING. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT LATER
MODEL RUNS/SOUNDINGS DO WITH THIS WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF ALL
WITH READINGS WELL INLAND DROPPING TO POSSIBLY THE MID 20S. CLOSER
TO THE COAST MINS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S WHICH COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC AS LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE WANTING TO HOLD ONTO SOME
PRECIP AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHES NEWD...STAY
TUNED.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODIFY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE YET ANOTHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS ARE MIXED ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK
WITH...THUS ONLY SMALL POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR THE OUT PERIODS IN
THIS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY BASED ON VARIOUS REPORTS FROM THE
COASTAL WATERS. COULD HAVE MADE THIS ADVISORY RUN ALL THE WAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BASED ON FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BUT WENT AHEAD AND
EXPIRED IT AT 12Z TOMORROW...WILL LET EVENING/MIDNIGHT SHIFTS
DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH THIS ADVISORY AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE MAIN STORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE STRONG NRLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS LOOK CERTAIN AND GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED BY
MID-WEEK AS WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LOOK
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  71  60  76  64 /  40  50  30  30  30
KBPT  58  70  62  77  63 /  40  50  30  30  30
KAEX  50  55  52  78  62 /  60  60  30  30  40
KLFT  63  74  63  78  65 /  30  50  30  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KLCH 011829
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
01/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS ACRS SE TX FM GALVESTON BAY
NE TO TOLEDO BEND RES...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST FM GLS
ALONG THE LA COAST. AN AREA OF SHRA/ISLTD TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AND
IS MOVING NE AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDS ACRS CNTL LA...WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE AT AEX
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MORE ISLTD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. IFR CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT/BREAK UP
SOME...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR OR EVEN VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN...BUT EXPECT PREVAILING IFR CIGS TO RETURN BY LATE AFTN OR
EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...LOWERING
VISBYS TO IFR/CIGS TO LIFR AFTER 06Z. MODT SELY WINDS AT THE SRN
SITES THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ELY OVERNIGHT...WITH
LT MOSTLY ELY WINDS AT AEX THROUGH THE PERIOD. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY IN A SW-NE FASHION ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROF FROM ROUGHLY KGLS TO
TOLEDO BEND TO KAEX AND KHEZ. MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION TODAY IS HOW
MUCH FARTHER INLAND THIS BOUNDARY MARCHES AND THUS WHERE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIE. INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR/WRF RUNS SO WILL NOT ADJUST
ATTM. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...THEREFORE NO UPDATE
IS PLANNED FOR NOW.

25

MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS FROM THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEED TO ISSUE A MARINE FOG ADVISORY...HAVE BEEN SEEING
VISIBILITIES STEADILY DROP LAST FEW HOURS AS SEA FOG
DEVELOPS/THICKENS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND BR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF...WITH THE
BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARCING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN IFR...OCCASIONALLY
EDGING DOWN INTO LIFR.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. 27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  58  65  59 /  60  50  60  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53 /  60  60  60  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 011829
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1229 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
01/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS ACRS SE TX FM GALVESTON BAY
NE TO TOLEDO BEND RES...WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST FM GLS
ALONG THE LA COAST. AN AREA OF SHRA/ISLTD TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED AND
IS MOVING NE AS MOISTURE OVERRIDES THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDS ACRS CNTL LA...WITH TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE AT AEX
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...MORE ISLTD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. IFR CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT/BREAK UP
SOME...AND OCCASIONAL MVFR OR EVEN VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN...BUT EXPECT PREVAILING IFR CIGS TO RETURN BY LATE AFTN OR
EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...LOWERING
VISBYS TO IFR/CIGS TO LIFR AFTER 06Z. MODT SELY WINDS AT THE SRN
SITES THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ELY OVERNIGHT...WITH
LT MOSTLY ELY WINDS AT AEX THROUGH THE PERIOD. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY IN A SW-NE FASHION ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROF FROM ROUGHLY KGLS TO
TOLEDO BEND TO KAEX AND KHEZ. MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION TODAY IS HOW
MUCH FARTHER INLAND THIS BOUNDARY MARCHES AND THUS WHERE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIE. INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR/WRF RUNS SO WILL NOT ADJUST
ATTM. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...THEREFORE NO UPDATE
IS PLANNED FOR NOW.

25

MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS FROM THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEED TO ISSUE A MARINE FOG ADVISORY...HAVE BEEN SEEING
VISIBILITIES STEADILY DROP LAST FEW HOURS AS SEA FOG
DEVELOPS/THICKENS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND BR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF...WITH THE
BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARCING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN IFR...OCCASIONALLY
EDGING DOWN INTO LIFR.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. 27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  58  65  59 /  60  50  60  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53 /  60  60  60  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62 /  60  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 011651
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY IN A SW-NE FASHION ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROF FROM ROUGHLY KGLS TO
TOLEDO BEND TO KAEX AND KHEZ. MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION TODAY IS HOW
MUCH FARTHER INLAND THIS BOUNDARY MARCHES AND THUS WHERE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIE. INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR/WRF RUNS SO WILL NOT ADJUST
ATTM. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...THEREFORE NO UPDATE
IS PLANNED FOR NOW.

25

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS FROM THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEED TO ISSUE A MARINE FOG ADVISORY...HAVE BEEN SEEING
VISIBILITIES STEADILY DROP LAST FEW HOURS AS SEA FOG
DEVELOPS/THICKENS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND BR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF...WITH THE
BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARCING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN IFR...OCCASIONALLY
EDGING DOWN INTO LIFR.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 011651
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY IN A SW-NE FASHION ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROF FROM ROUGHLY KGLS TO
TOLEDO BEND TO KAEX AND KHEZ. MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION TODAY IS HOW
MUCH FARTHER INLAND THIS BOUNDARY MARCHES AND THUS WHERE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIE. INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR/WRF RUNS SO WILL NOT ADJUST
ATTM. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...THEREFORE NO UPDATE
IS PLANNED FOR NOW.

25

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS FROM THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEED TO ISSUE A MARINE FOG ADVISORY...HAVE BEEN SEEING
VISIBILITIES STEADILY DROP LAST FEW HOURS AS SEA FOG
DEVELOPS/THICKENS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND BR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF...WITH THE
BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARCING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN IFR...OCCASIONALLY
EDGING DOWN INTO LIFR.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 011651
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY IN A SW-NE FASHION ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROF FROM ROUGHLY KGLS TO
TOLEDO BEND TO KAEX AND KHEZ. MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION TODAY IS HOW
MUCH FARTHER INLAND THIS BOUNDARY MARCHES AND THUS WHERE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIE. INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR/WRF RUNS SO WILL NOT ADJUST
ATTM. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...THEREFORE NO UPDATE
IS PLANNED FOR NOW.

25

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS FROM THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEED TO ISSUE A MARINE FOG ADVISORY...HAVE BEEN SEEING
VISIBILITIES STEADILY DROP LAST FEW HOURS AS SEA FOG
DEVELOPS/THICKENS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND BR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF...WITH THE
BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARCING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN IFR...OCCASIONALLY
EDGING DOWN INTO LIFR.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 011651
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER STEADY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY IN A SW-NE FASHION ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROF FROM ROUGHLY KGLS TO
TOLEDO BEND TO KAEX AND KHEZ. MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION TODAY IS HOW
MUCH FARTHER INLAND THIS BOUNDARY MARCHES AND THUS WHERE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIE. INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR/WRF RUNS SO WILL NOT ADJUST
ATTM. ELSEWHERE JUST MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE...THEREFORE NO UPDATE
IS PLANNED FOR NOW.

25

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS FROM THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEED TO ISSUE A MARINE FOG ADVISORY...HAVE BEEN SEEING
VISIBILITIES STEADILY DROP LAST FEW HOURS AS SEA FOG
DEVELOPS/THICKENS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND BR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF...WITH THE
BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARCING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN IFR...OCCASIONALLY
EDGING DOWN INTO LIFR.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 011142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND BR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF...WITH THE
BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARCING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN IFR...OCCASIONALLY
EDGING DOWN INTO LIFR.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 011142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND BR CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. THIS TO THE EAST OF A COASTAL TEXAS TROF...WITH THE
BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ARCING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN IFR...OCCASIONALLY
EDGING DOWN INTO LIFR.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 011002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 011002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 011002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 011002
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS NOTED IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WITH
EMBEDDED WAVES RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ONE IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE AREA NOW AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ON THE INCREASE. WARM FRONT IS NOTED FROM NEAR TOLEDO BEND TO
SOUTH OF MONROE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE UPPER
50S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE SEEN IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. PERIODIC WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
WELL THROUGH THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND BEGIN WASHING OUT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AS WELL WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK BACK IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT OFF AND ON RAIN WITH DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THE TIMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED 24 HOURS AGO. STILL FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

POST FRONTAL RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN FACT WE MAY NOT SEE FULL SUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK SOMEWHAT INTERESTING FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND IF CMC AND GFS
ARE CORRECT...MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SO HERE IS HOW WE HANDLED THINGS AFTER COORDINATION THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN ON TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE STARTING TO
SLOW ITS CATCH UP...HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MANY MORE BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DIP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN
THE GRIDS THURSDAY MORNING WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN JUST FOR THURSDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. AGAIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT COULD BE
LONGER DURATION SO STAY TUNED AS WE BEGIN TO GET A LOT MORE
GUIDANCE INFORMATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AGAIN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HAD
TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS A RESULT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WAS REDUCED.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS MORNING. WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN VERY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS...GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SEA FOG POTENTIAL
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  61  70  60  74 /  50  40  50  30  30
KBPT  69  60  70  61  75 /  60  40  50  30  30
KAEX  65  52  57  53  76 /  60  60  60  30  30
KLFT  70  62  71  62  76 /  60  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 010256
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
856 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM KLCH SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE
AROUND 10K FEET. HOWEVER...BELOW THE CAP...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PWAT NEARING 1 INCH. LOCAL RADARS ALREADY SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOVES ACROSS. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY LIGHT...UNDER
THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
ZONES. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP THE POP SOME IN THAT AREA.
ALSO...ADJUSTED CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS CHANGE SHOULD NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES...SHOULD
REMAIN ALMOST STEADY STATE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  61  70  62 /  40  40  40  40  20
KBPT  56  71  61  70  63 /  50  40  40  50  30
KAEX  49  67  55  62  57 /  30  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 010256
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
856 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM KLCH SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE
AROUND 10K FEET. HOWEVER...BELOW THE CAP...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PWAT NEARING 1 INCH. LOCAL RADARS ALREADY SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOVES ACROSS. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY LIGHT...UNDER
THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
ZONES. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP THE POP SOME IN THAT AREA.
ALSO...ADJUSTED CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS CHANGE SHOULD NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES...SHOULD
REMAIN ALMOST STEADY STATE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  61  70  62 /  40  40  40  40  20
KBPT  56  71  61  70  63 /  50  40  40  50  30
KAEX  49  67  55  62  57 /  30  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010256
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
856 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM KLCH SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE
AROUND 10K FEET. HOWEVER...BELOW THE CAP...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PWAT NEARING 1 INCH. LOCAL RADARS ALREADY SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOVES ACROSS. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY LIGHT...UNDER
THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
ZONES. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP THE POP SOME IN THAT AREA.
ALSO...ADJUSTED CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS CHANGE SHOULD NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES...SHOULD
REMAIN ALMOST STEADY STATE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  61  70  62 /  40  40  40  40  20
KBPT  56  71  61  70  63 /  50  40  40  50  30
KAEX  49  67  55  62  57 /  30  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 010256
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
856 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM KLCH SHOWS A CAP IN PLACE
AROUND 10K FEET. HOWEVER...BELOW THE CAP...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PWAT NEARING 1 INCH. LOCAL RADARS ALREADY SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOVES ACROSS. THEREFORE...SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY LIGHT...UNDER
THE CAP SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
ZONES. THEREFORE...BUMPED UP THE POP SOME IN THAT AREA.
ALSO...ADJUSTED CURRENT AND NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS CHANGE SHOULD NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AS TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES...SHOULD
REMAIN ALMOST STEADY STATE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  70  61  70  62 /  40  40  40  40  20
KBPT  56  71  61  70  63 /  50  40  40  50  30
KAEX  49  67  55  62  57 /  30  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 282313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  70  61  70  62 /  30  40  40  40  20
KBPT  54  71  61  70  63 /  30  40  40  50  30
KAEX  46  67  55  62  57 /  20  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 282313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  70  61  70  62 /  30  40  40  40  20
KBPT  54  71  61  70  63 /  30  40  40  50  30
KAEX  46  67  55  62  57 /  20  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 282313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  70  61  70  62 /  30  40  40  40  20
KBPT  54  71  61  70  63 /  30  40  40  50  30
KAEX  46  67  55  62  57 /  20  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









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