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000
FXUS64 KLCH 130533
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 13/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND KBPT MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND LOW CEILINGS IN THE
IFR-MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 13/08Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...THE ONLY UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD THE SCEC
TO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM 11 TO 0 Z TOMORROW. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COOL FRONT NOW DRAPED OVER THE NRN
ZONES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO
MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS...MAINTAINING A DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
SFC OBS/VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A LITTLE FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY OOZING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT...FORECAST
MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES AND SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SRN ZONES.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RUN SOME 15 OR SO DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EWD
AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO HELP SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/FRONT
LOOKS ON THE HORIZON FOR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LOOK LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS ON TAP BEHIND
THE NEXT FROPA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  57  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  47  62  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  46  62  43  64 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  51  64  48  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 5 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 130533
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 13/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND KBPT MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND LOW CEILINGS IN THE
IFR-MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 13/08Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...THE ONLY UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD THE SCEC
TO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM 11 TO 0 Z TOMORROW. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COOL FRONT NOW DRAPED OVER THE NRN
ZONES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO
MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS...MAINTAINING A DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
SFC OBS/VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A LITTLE FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY OOZING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT...FORECAST
MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES AND SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SRN ZONES.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RUN SOME 15 OR SO DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EWD
AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO HELP SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/FRONT
LOOKS ON THE HORIZON FOR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LOOK LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS ON TAP BEHIND
THE NEXT FROPA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  57  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  47  62  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  46  62  43  64 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  51  64  48  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 5 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 130533
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 13/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND KBPT MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND LOW CEILINGS IN THE
IFR-MVFR RANGE THROUGH ABOUT 13/08Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

UPDATE...THE ONLY UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD THE SCEC
TO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM 11 TO 0 Z TOMORROW. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COOL FRONT NOW DRAPED OVER THE NRN
ZONES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO
MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS...MAINTAINING A DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
SFC OBS/VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A LITTLE FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY OOZING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT...FORECAST
MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES AND SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SRN ZONES.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RUN SOME 15 OR SO DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EWD
AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO HELP SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/FRONT
LOOKS ON THE HORIZON FOR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LOOK LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS ON TAP BEHIND
THE NEXT FROPA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  57  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  47  62  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  46  62  43  64 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  51  64  48  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 5 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 130250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
850 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...THE ONLY UPDATE NEEDED THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD THE SCEC
TO THE GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM 11 TO 0 Z TOMORROW. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 13/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES BY 13/07Z. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
FROM ROUGHLY 13/03Z TO 13/07Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COOL FRONT NOW DRAPED OVER THE NRN
ZONES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO
MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS...MAINTAINING A DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
SFC OBS/VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A LITTLE FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY OOZING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT...FORECAST
MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES AND SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SRN ZONES.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RUN SOME 15 OR SO DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EWD
AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO HELP SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/FRONT
LOOKS ON THE HORIZON FOR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LOOK LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS ON TAP BEHIND
THE NEXT FROPA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  57  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  47  62  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  46  62  43  64 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  51  64  48  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 5 AM CST SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 122324
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
524 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 13/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WILL MOVE GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH ALL THE TAF SITES BY 13/07Z. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
FROM ROUGHLY 13/03Z TO 13/07Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COOL FRONT NOW DRAPED OVER THE NRN
ZONES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO
MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS...MAINTAINING A DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
SFC OBS/VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A LITTLE FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY OOZING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT...FORECAST
MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES AND SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SRN ZONES.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RUN SOME 15 OR SO DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EWD
AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO HELP SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/FRONT
LOOKS ON THE HORIZON FOR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LOOK LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS ON TAP BEHIND
THE NEXT FROPA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  57  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  47  62  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  46  62  43  64 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  51  64  48  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 122145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COOL FRONT NOW DRAPED OVER THE NRN
ZONES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO
MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS...MAINTAINING A DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
SFC OBS/VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A LITTLE FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY OOZING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT...FORECAST
MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES AND SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SRN ZONES.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RUN SOME 15 OR SO DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EWD
AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO HELP SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/FRONT
LOOKS ON THE HORIZON FOR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LOOK LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS ON TAP BEHIND
THE NEXT FROPA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  57  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  47  62  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  46  62  43  64 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  51  64  48  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 122145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COOL FRONT NOW DRAPED OVER THE NRN
ZONES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTL GULF OF MEXICO
MAINTAINS A WEAK GRIP ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND RIDGING
LINGERING OVER THE WRN CONUS...MAINTAINING A DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
SFC OBS/VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICT A LITTLE FAIR WEATHER CU ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

OUR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY OOZING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND IT...FORECAST
MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RUN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES AND SAME OR SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THE SRN ZONES.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RUN SOME 15 OR SO DEGREES LESS THAN TODAY WITH
READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLDOWN
LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWIFTLY EWD
AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NWRN 1/2 OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO HELP SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE
PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY SO THUNDER LOOKS ISOLATED AT
BEST. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/FRONT
LOOKS ON THE HORIZON FOR JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LOOK LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WILL BE BRIEF AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES PAST THE COASTAL
WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS ON TAP BEHIND
THE NEXT FROPA FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  40  57  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
LCH  47  62  43  66 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  46  62  43  64 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  51  64  48  70 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KLCH 121808
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
12/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT SC DEVELOPING ON W/SW LOW LVL FLOW ACRS THE REGION WITH A
COLD FRONT POISED ACRS NRN LA. EXPECT SCT TO OCNLY BKN CLOUDS
BASED AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH THE AFTN ALONG WITH W-SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH...PASSING THE SRN TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-03Z
THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER AT
LCH/LFT/ARA WITH WINDS BCMG N THEN NELY. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AT
POSSIBLE FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING IN THE VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY
NR BPT...WHILE SOUNDINGS/TIME HTS INDICATE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL AND LEANED TOWARD THIS LATTER SOLUTION AS THE SHALLOW
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE
EVENING.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COOL FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM...AND LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOW LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...AND GIVEN GOOD DEPTH OF DRY AIR IN
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OBS SHOWED
GOOD WARMING UNDERWAY AND THUS TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY. ALL
IN ALL INHERITED ZONES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...HOWEVER WILL ISSUE AN
UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG MENTION/ADVISORY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MIXING OUT
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY CLOUDS
DIMINISHING IN ITS WAKE WHILE WINDS TREND BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.

23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO RISE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. BUT A CHANGE IS ON THE
WAY AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TODAY. WINDS
WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COOLER START TO TOMORROW AS COLD AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS LATEST FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER WEEKEND... GREAT FOR HAVING SOME FUN OUTSIDE.

WE ARE IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THIS NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH FAST AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. WINDS TO PICKUP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSTED ON LATE
MONDAY. OTHERWISE... DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  41  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  75  46  62  41 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  75  46  61  41 /   0  10   0   0
BPT  77  51  63  44 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 121649
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR COOL FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM...AND LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOW LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...AND GIVEN GOOD DEPTH OF DRY AIR IN
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. OBS SHOWED
GOOD WARMING UNDERWAY AND THUS TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY. ALL
IN ALL INHERITED ZONES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...HOWEVER WILL ISSUE AN
UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG MENTION/ADVISORY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MIXING OUT
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY CLOUDS
DIMINISHING IN ITS WAKE WHILE WINDS TREND BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO RISE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. BUT A CHANGE IS ON THE
WAY AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TODAY. WINDS
WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COOLER START TO TOMORROW AS COLD AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS LATEST FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER WEEKEND... GREAT FOR HAVING SOME FUN OUTSIDE.

WE ARE IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THIS NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH FAST AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. WINDS TO PICKUP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSTED ON LATE
MONDAY. OTHERWISE... DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  41  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  75  46  62  41 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  75  46  61  41 /   0  10   0   0
BPT  77  51  63  44 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 121204
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
604 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MIXING OUT
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY CLOUDS
DIMINISHING IN ITS WAKE WHILE WINDS TREND BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO RISE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. BUT A CHANGE IS ON THE
WAY AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TODAY. WINDS
WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COOLER START TO TOMORROW AS COLD AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS LATEST FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER WEEKEND... GREAT FOR HAVING SOME FUN OUTSIDE.

WE ARE IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THIS NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH FAST AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. WINDS TO PICKUP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSTED ON LATE
MONDAY. OTHERWISE... DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  41  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  46  62  41 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  74  46  61  41 /   0  10   0   0
BPT  76  51  63  44 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ201-215-
     216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 121204
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
604 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MIXING OUT
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY CLOUDS
DIMINISHING IN ITS WAKE WHILE WINDS TREND BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO RISE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. BUT A CHANGE IS ON THE
WAY AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TODAY. WINDS
WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COOLER START TO TOMORROW AS COLD AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS LATEST FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER WEEKEND... GREAT FOR HAVING SOME FUN OUTSIDE.

WE ARE IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THIS NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH FAST AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. WINDS TO PICKUP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSTED ON LATE
MONDAY. OTHERWISE... DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  41  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  46  62  41 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  74  46  61  41 /   0  10   0   0
BPT  76  51  63  44 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ201-215-
     216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 121204
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
604 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MIXING OUT
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH VFR THEN PREVAILING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLIP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY CLOUDS
DIMINISHING IN ITS WAKE WHILE WINDS TREND BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO RISE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. BUT A CHANGE IS ON THE
WAY AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TODAY. WINDS
WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COOLER START TO TOMORROW AS COLD AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS LATEST FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER WEEKEND... GREAT FOR HAVING SOME FUN OUTSIDE.

WE ARE IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THIS NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH FAST AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. WINDS TO PICKUP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSTED ON LATE
MONDAY. OTHERWISE... DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  41  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  46  62  41 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  74  46  61  41 /   0  10   0   0
BPT  76  51  63  44 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ201-215-
     216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 121033
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO RISE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. BUT A CHANGE IS ON THE
WAY AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TODAY. WINDS
WILL KICK AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COOLER START TO TOMORROW AS COLD AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS LATEST FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AND
DRIER WEEKEND... GREAT FOR HAVING SOME FUN OUTSIDE.

WE ARE IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL MEAN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THIS NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH FAST AND RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH. WINDS TO PICKUP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSTED ON LATE
MONDAY. OTHERWISE... DRY AND COOL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  41  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  46  62  41 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  74  46  61  41 /   0  10   0   0
BPT  76  51  63  44 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ201-215-
     216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 120540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WARMER...MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F TO THE LOW 60S HAVE
STAYED NEAR THE COAST...AND THIS IS WHERE SOME SEA FOG IS FORMING.
HOWEVER...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
WIDESPREAD SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST...WITH TAF SITES DEALING MORE
WITH A COMBINATION FOG EVENT. THUS...FURTHER INLAND...WITH CLEAR
SKIES...AIR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING HAVE
FINALLY COOLED BELOW DEW POINT CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES...AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONDENSE INTO FOG AND
STRATUS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA.
KLCH VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 12/09Z.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LIFR/IFR/MVFR.

CLOSER TO SUNRISE...GRADIENT DOES RELAX ENOUGH THAT A MORE
CONSISTENT FOG WITH VISIBILITIES STAYING IN THE LIFR/IFR RANGE
THROUGH ABOUT 12/15Z. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH COOLING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO FORM
AT KAEX.

EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AROUND 12/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH JUST A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THE MAIN AFFECT FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 120540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WARMER...MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F TO THE LOW 60S HAVE
STAYED NEAR THE COAST...AND THIS IS WHERE SOME SEA FOG IS FORMING.
HOWEVER...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
WIDESPREAD SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST...WITH TAF SITES DEALING MORE
WITH A COMBINATION FOG EVENT. THUS...FURTHER INLAND...WITH CLEAR
SKIES...AIR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING HAVE
FINALLY COOLED BELOW DEW POINT CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES...AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONDENSE INTO FOG AND
STRATUS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA.
KLCH VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 12/09Z.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LIFR/IFR/MVFR.

CLOSER TO SUNRISE...GRADIENT DOES RELAX ENOUGH THAT A MORE
CONSISTENT FOG WITH VISIBILITIES STAYING IN THE LIFR/IFR RANGE
THROUGH ABOUT 12/15Z. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH COOLING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO FORM
AT KAEX.

EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AROUND 12/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH JUST A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THE MAIN AFFECT FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 120540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WARMER...MOIST AIR WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F TO THE LOW 60S HAVE
STAYED NEAR THE COAST...AND THIS IS WHERE SOME SEA FOG IS FORMING.
HOWEVER...SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
WIDESPREAD SEA FOG NEAR THE COAST...WITH TAF SITES DEALING MORE
WITH A COMBINATION FOG EVENT. THUS...FURTHER INLAND...WITH CLEAR
SKIES...AIR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING HAVE
FINALLY COOLED BELOW DEW POINT CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES...AND THIS
HAS ALLOWED SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONDENSE INTO FOG AND
STRATUS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA.
KLCH VAD WIND PROFILE STILL SHOWS WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 12/09Z.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME MIXING TO OCCUR THAT WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LIFR/IFR/MVFR.

CLOSER TO SUNRISE...GRADIENT DOES RELAX ENOUGH THAT A MORE
CONSISTENT FOG WITH VISIBILITIES STAYING IN THE LIFR/IFR RANGE
THROUGH ABOUT 12/15Z. AT THIS TIME...ENOUGH COOLING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE TO ALLOW PATCHY FOG BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO FORM
AT KAEX.

EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AROUND 12/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT...WITH JUST A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...THE MAIN AFFECT FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 120245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
845 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WILL START THE TAF PACKAGE OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE...AND HOW
MUCH THESE WINDS STAY UP TONIGHT WILL BE PART OF THE ANSWER TO IF
AND HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT
BACK SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TAF SITES ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. LESS MOISTURE
FURTHER NORTH WITH KAEX STILL IN THE MID 40S. NEAR SHORE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO DEW POINTS
HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED THE THRESHOLD TO GET THE SEA FOG MACHINE
GOING...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS DEW POINTS RIGHT NEAR THAT THRESHOLD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR GREATER...UNTIL AFTER
12/09Z WHEN GRADIENT SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CLOSER TO 10
KNOTS.

THEREFORE...WINDS MAY CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH THE EVENING TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...THEN ONLY PATCHY FOG FORMING AROUND
12/06Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG WILL COME CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SO
WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 12/10Z FOR
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL MIX OUT AFTER
12/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 112341
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
541 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL START THE TAF PACKAGE OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE...AND HOW
MUCH THESE WINDS STAY UP TONIGHT WILL BE PART OF THE ANSWER TO IF
AND HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT
BACK SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TAF SITES ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. LESS MOISTURE
FURTHER NORTH WITH KAEX STILL IN THE MID 40S. NEAR SHORE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO DEW POINTS
HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED THE THRESHOLD TO GET THE SEA FOG MACHINE
GOING...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS DEW POINTS RIGHT NEAR THAT THRESHOLD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR GREATER...UNTIL AFTER
12/09Z WHEN GRADIENT SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CLOSER TO 10
KNOTS.

THEREFORE...WINDS MAY CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH THE EVENING TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...THEN ONLY PATCHY FOG FORMING AROUND
12/06Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG WILL COME CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SO
WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 12/10Z FOR
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL MIX OUT AFTER
12/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 112341
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
541 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL START THE TAF PACKAGE OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE...AND HOW
MUCH THESE WINDS STAY UP TONIGHT WILL BE PART OF THE ANSWER TO IF
AND HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT
BACK SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TAF SITES ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. LESS MOISTURE
FURTHER NORTH WITH KAEX STILL IN THE MID 40S. NEAR SHORE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO DEW POINTS
HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED THE THRESHOLD TO GET THE SEA FOG MACHINE
GOING...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS DEW POINTS RIGHT NEAR THAT THRESHOLD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR GREATER...UNTIL AFTER
12/09Z WHEN GRADIENT SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CLOSER TO 10
KNOTS.

THEREFORE...WINDS MAY CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH THE EVENING TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...THEN ONLY PATCHY FOG FORMING AROUND
12/06Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG WILL COME CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SO
WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 12/10Z FOR
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL MIX OUT AFTER
12/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 112341
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
541 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL START THE TAF PACKAGE OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE...AND HOW
MUCH THESE WINDS STAY UP TONIGHT WILL BE PART OF THE ANSWER TO IF
AND HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT
BACK SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TAF SITES ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. LESS MOISTURE
FURTHER NORTH WITH KAEX STILL IN THE MID 40S. NEAR SHORE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO DEW POINTS
HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED THE THRESHOLD TO GET THE SEA FOG MACHINE
GOING...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS DEW POINTS RIGHT NEAR THAT THRESHOLD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR GREATER...UNTIL AFTER
12/09Z WHEN GRADIENT SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CLOSER TO 10
KNOTS.

THEREFORE...WINDS MAY CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH THE EVENING TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...THEN ONLY PATCHY FOG FORMING AROUND
12/06Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG WILL COME CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SO
WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 12/10Z FOR
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL MIX OUT AFTER
12/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 112145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 111740
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
11/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLR SKIES ACRS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW FAIR WX CU DEVELOPING NR THE ACADIANA TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SWLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET TO
AROUND 5 KT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY BR AND SCTD STRATUS WITH MVFR VSBY
REDUCTIONS AFTER 06Z. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY 14-15Z FRI
MORNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR REMAINING DOMINANT WITH NWRLY
FLOW ALOFT/WRLY SFC FLOW PREVAILING. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD TOWARD THE
AREA...THE EVER-PRESENT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT ANY CLOUD COVER AND
ABSOLUTELY SQUASH POTENTIAL RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
TEMPS/WINDS LOOK FINE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. ALL IN ALL NO
UPDATE IS PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ROLL IN LATE TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON A RETURNING MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 111740
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
11/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLR SKIES ACRS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW FAIR WX CU DEVELOPING NR THE ACADIANA TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SWLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET TO
AROUND 5 KT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY BR AND SCTD STRATUS WITH MVFR VSBY
REDUCTIONS AFTER 06Z. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY 14-15Z FRI
MORNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR REMAINING DOMINANT WITH NWRLY
FLOW ALOFT/WRLY SFC FLOW PREVAILING. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD TOWARD THE
AREA...THE EVER-PRESENT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT ANY CLOUD COVER AND
ABSOLUTELY SQUASH POTENTIAL RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
TEMPS/WINDS LOOK FINE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. ALL IN ALL NO
UPDATE IS PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ROLL IN LATE TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON A RETURNING MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 111740
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
11/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLR SKIES ACRS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW FAIR WX CU DEVELOPING NR THE ACADIANA TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. SWLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTN WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET TO
AROUND 5 KT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY BR AND SCTD STRATUS WITH MVFR VSBY
REDUCTIONS AFTER 06Z. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY 14-15Z FRI
MORNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR REMAINING DOMINANT WITH NWRLY
FLOW ALOFT/WRLY SFC FLOW PREVAILING. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD TOWARD THE
AREA...THE EVER-PRESENT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT ANY CLOUD COVER AND
ABSOLUTELY SQUASH POTENTIAL RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
TEMPS/WINDS LOOK FINE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. ALL IN ALL NO
UPDATE IS PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ROLL IN LATE TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON A RETURNING MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 111616
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1016 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR REMAINING DOMINANT WITH NWRLY
FLOW ALOFT/WRLY SFC FLOW PREVAILING. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD TOWARD THE
AREA...THE EVER-PRESENT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT ANY CLOUD COVER AND
ABSOLUTELY SQUASH POTENTIAL RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE INHERITED
TEMPS/WINDS LOOK FINE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. ALL IN ALL NO
UPDATE IS PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ROLL IN LATE TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON A RETURNING MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 111113
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ROLL IN LATE TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON A RETURNING MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 111113
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ROLL IN LATE TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON A RETURNING MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 111113
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL ROLL IN LATE TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR ON A RETURNING MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 111047
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 111047
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER




000
FXUS64 KLCH 111047
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW AREAS REPORTING SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
PUSHED DEW POINTS UP INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST... TO
NEAR 50 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR... TO MID 40S AROUND THE LAKES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

AROUND THE COUNTY... MINNESOTA IS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME AS ONE
OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS WITH -15 TO -24 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

BACK AT HOME... HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN THE GULF AND THIS
IS THE REASON FOR THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE DRY AND JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ON MONDAY... ANOTHER STILL STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT LOOKING FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... AS THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE RATHER QUICK.

FOR TODAY THOUGH... LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S
MOST LOCATIONS ON SOUTH WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A BIT WARMER AND A BIT
MORE FOG.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES...
GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  48  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  74  56  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  76  54  75  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 110310
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
910 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SFC HIGH OVER C GULF WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS OK THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR SW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS
SETUP...LOW TEMP LIKELY BEEN REACHED ACROSS SE TX/SW LA WITH SW
WINDS ALREADY NOTED...AND TEMPS LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
BY DAYBREAK BECAUSE OF THIS. ACROSS C LA...A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING POSSIBLE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE HALTING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THIS THINKING...WITH NO
UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LT AND
VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS DURING THURSDAY
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER EAST TX AND WRN
LA AND NORTH WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA. A DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AROUND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.

THIS TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT A BIT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH AN E-W ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULTING WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARM UP...WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S.

A WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT IS
PROGGED TO STALL OUT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT. CONTINUED NWD
LOW LEVEL MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY RAISES THE PROSPECT OF FOG
FORMATION...WHICH IS STRONGLY INDICATED IN THE NAM/HIRESW/SREF
MODELS. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HRS IN THE REGION OF HIGHEST SREF PROGS. HELD OFF INCLUSION OVER
ANY MARINE AREAS AT THIS TIME AS PROGGED DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
RIGHT AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW SSTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COOLISH AREA AROUND VERMILION BAY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA.

A STRONGER FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
SAT...KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
EXPANSIVE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS FCST SETTLE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY
SUN. THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE TIMING OF PACIFIC ENERGY
SLATED TO APPROACH AND TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE RESULTING CONSENSUS POPS INCREASING TO HIGH END
CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUE AND WED.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF BOUT OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. A MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  74  53  73 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  46  74  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  48  76  54  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08





000
FXUS64 KLCH 102323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LT AND
VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS DURING THURSDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER EAST TX AND WRN
LA AND NORTH WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA. A DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AROUND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.

THIS TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT A BIT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH AN E-W ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULTING WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARM UP...WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S.

A WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT IS
PROGGED TO STALL OUT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT. CONTINUED NWD
LOW LEVEL MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY RAISES THE PROSPECT OF FOG
FORMATION...WHICH IS STRONGLY INDICATED IN THE NAM/HIRESW/SREF
MODELS. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HRS IN THE REGION OF HIGHEST SREF PROGS. HELD OFF INCLUSION OVER
ANY MARINE AREAS AT THIS TIME AS PROGGED DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
RIGHT AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW SSTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COOLISH AREA AROUND VERMILION BAY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA.

A STRONGER FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
SAT...KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
EXPANSIVE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS FCST SETTLE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY
SUN. THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE TIMING OF PACIFIC ENERGY
SLATED TO APPROACH AND TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE RESULTING CONSENSUS POPS INCREASING TO HIGH END
CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUE AND WED.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF BOUT OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. A MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  74  53  73 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  46  74  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  48  76  54  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 102323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LT AND
VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS DURING THURSDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER EAST TX AND WRN
LA AND NORTH WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA. A DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AROUND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.

THIS TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT A BIT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH AN E-W ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULTING WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARM UP...WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S.

A WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT IS
PROGGED TO STALL OUT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT. CONTINUED NWD
LOW LEVEL MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY RAISES THE PROSPECT OF FOG
FORMATION...WHICH IS STRONGLY INDICATED IN THE NAM/HIRESW/SREF
MODELS. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HRS IN THE REGION OF HIGHEST SREF PROGS. HELD OFF INCLUSION OVER
ANY MARINE AREAS AT THIS TIME AS PROGGED DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
RIGHT AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW SSTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COOLISH AREA AROUND VERMILION BAY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA.

A STRONGER FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
SAT...KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
EXPANSIVE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS FCST SETTLE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY
SUN. THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE TIMING OF PACIFIC ENERGY
SLATED TO APPROACH AND TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE RESULTING CONSENSUS POPS INCREASING TO HIGH END
CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUE AND WED.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF BOUT OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. A MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  74  53  73 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  46  74  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  48  76  54  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 102143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PROCESS OF TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED OVER EAST TX AND WRN
LA AND NORTH WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA. A DEEP NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AROUND THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS.

THIS TROF IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT A BIT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH AN E-W ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULTING WARMER THERMAL PROFILE AND
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARM UP...WITH LOWS TONIGHT A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT...AND HIGHS TOMORROW CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S.

A WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO APPROACH THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT IS
PROGGED TO STALL OUT TO THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT. CONTINUED NWD
LOW LEVEL MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY RAISES THE PROSPECT OF FOG
FORMATION...WHICH IS STRONGLY INDICATED IN THE NAM/HIRESW/SREF
MODELS. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HRS IN THE REGION OF HIGHEST SREF PROGS. HELD OFF INCLUSION OVER
ANY MARINE AREAS AT THIS TIME AS PROGGED DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY
RIGHT AT OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW SSTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COOLISH AREA AROUND VERMILION BAY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA.

A STRONGER FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
SAT...KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. THE
EXPANSIVE POST FRONTAL HIGH IS FCST SETTLE OVER THE ERN CONUS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN...WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY
SUN. THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST THE TIMING OF PACIFIC ENERGY
SLATED TO APPROACH AND TRAVERSE THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE RESULTING CONSENSUS POPS INCREASING TO HIGH END
CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUE AND WED.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF BOUT OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. A MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN SUNDAY AS THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH ANOTHER FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  76  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  47  74  53  73 /   0   0  10  10
LFT  46  74  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  48  76  54  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 101739
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VISIBILITIES...AND FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE DRY TREND CONTINUING SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WSWRLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 12KT AT THE SRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 101739
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VISIBILITIES...AND FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE DRY TREND CONTINUING SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WSWRLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 12KT AT THE SRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 101739
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VISIBILITIES...AND FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE DRY TREND CONTINUING SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WSWRLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEN SPEEDS LOOK TO INCREASE AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH SPEEDS EXCEEDING 12KT AT THE SRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 101705
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 101705
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 101705
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST ON TARGET. MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING
THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS. NO ZFP UPDATE NEEDED. UPDATED
PFM TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 101119
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR GMZ452-455-470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 101119
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR GMZ452-455-470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 101119
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES. VFR AHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR GMZ452-455-470.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 100953
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
353 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES
TO THE MID 40S DOWN ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER ALSO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY... AS THIS
PROCESS DEVELOPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH WIND SPEEDS
FALLING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF THIS EVENING
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL FURTHER
RAISE THE DEW POINTS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TODAY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SWINGING AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60S. A WARMUP OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH... LOOKING
FOR HIGHS INTO THE 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
NEXT RAINS WILL APPEAR TOWARDS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK SO THE WEEKEND
IS LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  60  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  61  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  59  48  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  64  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
     TODAY FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR GMZ452-455-470.

&&

$$

K. KUYPER





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