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000
FXUS64 KLCH 290603
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SE TX AND
FAR SW LA. VSBYS AT SE TX AIRPORTS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACRS SW LA...WITH VSBYS
CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING BUT EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1/4 MILE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING THURSDAY.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPING TO BRING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE PRODUCING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
ALSO LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO DEW POINTS WITH SOME FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED BELOW WHAT
THE EVENING DEW POINTS WERE...AND WITH THAT...VISIBILITY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KBPT AND BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AT KLCH. EXPECT KBPT TO
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH KLCH ALSO SETTLING IN FOR MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 29/09Z. THE OTHER TAF SITES THAT HAVE SEEN LESS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF IFR. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 29/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET MOVING WITH THE
FRONT.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  47  59 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  55  72  50  61 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  58 /   0   0  10   0
KLFT  50  74  48  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CALCASIEU-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
     ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 290603
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SE TX AND
FAR SW LA. VSBYS AT SE TX AIRPORTS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACRS SW LA...WITH VSBYS
CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING BUT EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1/4 MILE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING THURSDAY.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPING TO BRING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE PRODUCING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
ALSO LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO DEW POINTS WITH SOME FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED BELOW WHAT
THE EVENING DEW POINTS WERE...AND WITH THAT...VISIBILITY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KBPT AND BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AT KLCH. EXPECT KBPT TO
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH KLCH ALSO SETTLING IN FOR MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 29/09Z. THE OTHER TAF SITES THAT HAVE SEEN LESS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF IFR. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 29/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET MOVING WITH THE
FRONT.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  47  59 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  55  72  50  61 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  58 /   0   0  10   0
KLFT  50  74  48  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CALCASIEU-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
     ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 290530
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPING TO BRING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE PRODUCING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
ALSO LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO DEW POINTS WITH SOME FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED BELOW WHAT
THE EVENING DEW POINTS WERE...AND WITH THAT...VISIBILITY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KBPT AND BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AT KLCH. EXPECT KBPT TO
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH KLCH ALSO SETTLING IN FOR MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 29/09Z. THE OTHER TAF SITES THAT HAVE SEEN LESS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF IFR. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 29/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET MOVING WITH THE
FRONT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  53  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  55  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  50  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 290530
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPING TO BRING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE PRODUCING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
ALSO LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO DEW POINTS WITH SOME FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED BELOW WHAT
THE EVENING DEW POINTS WERE...AND WITH THAT...VISIBILITY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KBPT AND BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AT KLCH. EXPECT KBPT TO
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH KLCH ALSO SETTLING IN FOR MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 29/09Z. THE OTHER TAF SITES THAT HAVE SEEN LESS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF IFR. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 29/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET MOVING WITH THE
FRONT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  53  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  55  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  50  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 290350
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  45  58 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  55  72  47  59 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  56 /   0   0  10   0
KLFT  50  74  46  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 290350
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  45  58 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  55  72  47  59 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  56 /   0   0  10   0
KLFT  50  74  46  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 282120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
AIR MASS TO MODIFY OVER NIGHT. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG COULD DEVELOP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE
IN THE SHORT TERM. BOTH MODELS SHOW A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE THE WESTERN GULF STATES
BY SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY OPENS UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL GULF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
A RISK OF PATCHY MARINE FOG FORMING OVER THE SHALLOW COOL COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF MARINE FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  52  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  50  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  51  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 282120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
AIR MASS TO MODIFY OVER NIGHT. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG COULD DEVELOP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE
IN THE SHORT TERM. BOTH MODELS SHOW A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE THE WESTERN GULF STATES
BY SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY OPENS UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL GULF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
A RISK OF PATCHY MARINE FOG FORMING OVER THE SHALLOW COOL COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF MARINE FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  52  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  50  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  51  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1151 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKY AND VISIBILITY 10 MILES ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED BETWEEN 09 AND 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF PATCHY ADVECTION
AND RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER THE COOL SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1151 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKY AND VISIBILITY 10 MILES ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED BETWEEN 09 AND 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF PATCHY ADVECTION
AND RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER THE COOL SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 281538
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
938 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF PATCHY ADVECTION
AND RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER THE COOL SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281538
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
938 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF PATCHY ADVECTION
AND RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER THE COOL SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 281155
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281155
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 281014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

66






000
FXUS64 KLCH 281014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

66







000
FXUS64 KLCH 281014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

66






000
FXUS64 KLCH 281014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

66







000
FXUS64 KLCH 280529
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...ALTHOUGH A QUICK LOOK
OUTSIDE SHOWS SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP HERE AT
THE LCH AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS
AT BPT AND POSSIBLY LCH...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE
REGION...FOG SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY AND SHALLOW. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT BPT/LCH FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08-12Z...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (28/00Z) FROM KLCH VERIFIES WHAT IS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS. SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RISEN THE DEW POINTS SOME THIS EVENING
AT A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
CALM...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. WITH THIS...A FEW SITES MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS AIR TEMPERATURES LATER ON REACH DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT OVERALL AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT PLACE IN WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  45  69  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  47  72  53  73 /   0   0   0  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  45  69  52  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 280529
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...ALTHOUGH A QUICK LOOK
OUTSIDE SHOWS SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP HERE AT
THE LCH AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS
AT BPT AND POSSIBLY LCH...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE
REGION...FOG SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY AND SHALLOW. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT BPT/LCH FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08-12Z...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (28/00Z) FROM KLCH VERIFIES WHAT IS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS. SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RISEN THE DEW POINTS SOME THIS EVENING
AT A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
CALM...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. WITH THIS...A FEW SITES MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS AIR TEMPERATURES LATER ON REACH DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT OVERALL AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT PLACE IN WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  45  69  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  47  72  53  73 /   0   0   0  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  45  69  52  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 280244
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
844 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (28/00Z) FROM KLCH VERIFIES WHAT IS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS. SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RISEN THE DEW POINTS SOME THIS EVENING
AT A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
CALM...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. WITH THIS...A FEW SITES MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS AIR TEMPERATURES LATER ON REACH DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT OVERALL AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT PLACE IN WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  69  52  73  49 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  47  72  53  73  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  45  69  52  74  48 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 280244
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
844 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (28/00Z) FROM KLCH VERIFIES WHAT IS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS. SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RISEN THE DEW POINTS SOME THIS EVENING
AT A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
CALM...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. WITH THIS...A FEW SITES MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS AIR TEMPERATURES LATER ON REACH DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT OVERALL AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT PLACE IN WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  69  52  73  49 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  47  72  53  73  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  45  69  52  74  48 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 280244
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
844 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (28/00Z) FROM KLCH VERIFIES WHAT IS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS. SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RISEN THE DEW POINTS SOME THIS EVENING
AT A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
CALM...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. WITH THIS...A FEW SITES MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS AIR TEMPERATURES LATER ON REACH DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT OVERALL AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT PLACE IN WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  69  52  73  49 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  47  72  53  73  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  45  69  52  74  48 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 280244
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
844 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (28/00Z) FROM KLCH VERIFIES WHAT IS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS. SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RISEN THE DEW POINTS SOME THIS EVENING
AT A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
CALM...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. WITH THIS...A FEW SITES MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS AIR TEMPERATURES LATER ON REACH DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT OVERALL AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT PLACE IN WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  69  52  73  49 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  47  72  53  73  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  45  69  52  74  48 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 272319
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  45  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  77  47  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  73  41  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  73  45  69  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 272319
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  45  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  77  47  72  53 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  73  41  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  73  45  69  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 272142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  69  52  73  49 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  47  72  53  73  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  45  69  52  74  48 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 272142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  69  52  73  49 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  47  72  53  73  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  45  69  52  74  48 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 271717
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1117 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE YIELDING
VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AN EXTREMELY QUIET TAF PERIOD UPCOMING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND THUS VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EWD OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
BETWEEN THESES TWO FEATURES OUR LOCAL AREA HAS A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND
MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT PROLONGING THE
TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL VEER THE LIGHT WINDS
FROM WEST THIS MORNING TO EAST BY WED MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES WED. THIS WILL BEGIN THE RETURN FLOW FOR THE REGION
WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LOCALLY AND SWING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY
WED MORNING, HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING PRECIP REMOVED FROM THE CWA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY PINCH
OFF A CUT OFF LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER S TX AND INCREASE ISENTROPIC
LIFT LOCALLY BY SAT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ENDING THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRIEFLY DRYING THE AREA OUT BEHIND THE LOW AND
FRONT, HOWEVER DREARY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

MARINE...WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND VEER MORE EASTERLY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ONSHORE DURING WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TURNING THE FLOW OFFSHORE AND INCREASING THE SPEEDS TO NEAR
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  46  69  51  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  73  48  69  53  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  69  42  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  70  44  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 271525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
925 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AN EXTREMELY QUIET TAF PERIOD UPCOMING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND THUS VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EWD OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
BETWEEN THESES TWO FEATURES OUR LOCAL AREA HAS A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND
MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT PROLONGING THE
TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL VEER THE LIGHT WINDS
FROM WEST THIS MORNING TO EAST BY WED MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES WED. THIS WILL BEGIN THE RETURN FLOW FOR THE REGION
WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LOCALLY AND SWING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY
WED MORNING, HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING PRECIP REMOVED FROM THE CWA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY PINCH
OFF A CUT OFF LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER S TX AND INCREASE ISENTROPIC
LIFT LOCALLY BY SAT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ENDING THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRIEFLY DRYING THE AREA OUT BEHIND THE LOW AND
FRONT, HOWEVER DREARY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

MARINE...WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND VEER MORE EASTERLY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ONSHORE DURING WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TURNING THE FLOW OFFSHORE AND INCREASING THE SPEEDS TO NEAR
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  46  69  51  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  73  48  69  53  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  69  42  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  70  44  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 271158
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
558 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN EXTREMELY QUIET TAF PERIOD UPCOMING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND THUS VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EWD OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
BETWEEN THESES TWO FEATURES OUR LOCAL AREA HAS A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND
MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT PROLONGING THE
TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL VEER THE LIGHT WINDS
FROM WEST THIS MORNING TO EAST BY WED MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES WED. THIS WILL BEGIN THE RETURN FLOW FOR THE REGION
WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LOCALLY AND SWING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY
WED MORNING, HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING PRECIP REMOVED FROM THE CWA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY PINCH
OFF A CUT OFF LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER S TX AND INCREASE ISENTROPIC
LIFT LOCALLY BY SAT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ENDING THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRIEFLY DRYING THE AREA OUT BEHIND THE LOW AND
FRONT, HOWEVER DREARY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

MARINE...WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND VEER MORE EASTERLY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ONSHORE DURING WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TURNING THE FLOW OFFSHORE AND INCREASING THE SPEEDS TO NEAR
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  46  69  51  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  73  48  69  53  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  69  42  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  70  44  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 271158
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
558 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN EXTREMELY QUIET TAF PERIOD UPCOMING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND THUS VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING EWD OVER THE GULF
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
BETWEEN THESES TWO FEATURES OUR LOCAL AREA HAS A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND
MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT PROLONGING THE
TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL VEER THE LIGHT WINDS
FROM WEST THIS MORNING TO EAST BY WED MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES WED. THIS WILL BEGIN THE RETURN FLOW FOR THE REGION
WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LOCALLY AND SWING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY
WED MORNING, HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING PRECIP REMOVED FROM THE CWA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY PINCH
OFF A CUT OFF LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER S TX AND INCREASE ISENTROPIC
LIFT LOCALLY BY SAT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ENDING THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRIEFLY DRYING THE AREA OUT BEHIND THE LOW AND
FRONT, HOWEVER DREARY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

MARINE...WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND VEER MORE EASTERLY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ONSHORE DURING WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TURNING THE FLOW OFFSHORE AND INCREASING THE SPEEDS TO NEAR
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  46  69  51  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  73  48  69  53  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  69  42  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  70  44  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 270930
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
BETWEEN THESES TWO FEATURES OUR LOCAL AREA HAS A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND
MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT PROLONGING THE
TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL VEER THE LIGHT WINDS
FROM WEST THIS MORNING TO EAST BY WED MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES WED. THIS WILL BEGIN THE RETURN FLOW FOR THE REGION
WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LOCALLY AND SWING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY
WED MORNING, HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING PRECIP REMOVED FROM THE CWA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY PINCH
OFF A CUT OFF LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER S TX AND INCREASE ISENTROPIC
LIFT LOCALLY BY SAT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ENDING THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRIEFLY DRYING THE AREA OUT BEHIND THE LOW AND
FRONT, HOWEVER DREARY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE COMING WORK WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND VEER MORE EASTERLY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ONSHORE DURING WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TURNING THE FLOW OFFSHORE AND INCREASING THE SPEEDS TO NEAR
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  46  69  51  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  73  48  69  53  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  69  42  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  70  44  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 270930
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
330 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
BETWEEN THESES TWO FEATURES OUR LOCAL AREA HAS A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK REINFORCING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND
MOVE INTO THE SE STATES THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT PROLONGING THE
TRANQUIL AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL VEER THE LIGHT WINDS
FROM WEST THIS MORNING TO EAST BY WED MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES WED. THIS WILL BEGIN THE RETURN FLOW FOR THE REGION
WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LOCALLY AND SWING A FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BY
WED MORNING, HOWEVER THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING PRECIP REMOVED FROM THE CWA. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY PINCH
OFF A CUT OFF LOW FROM THE FAR SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA. THE SHORT WAVE WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE END OF THE COLD FRONT OVER S TX AND INCREASE ISENTROPIC
LIFT LOCALLY BY SAT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND ENDING THE STRING
OF DRY DAYS. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRIEFLY DRYING THE AREA OUT BEHIND THE LOW AND
FRONT, HOWEVER DREARY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
THE COMING WORK WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL GULF
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND VEER MORE EASTERLY AS A
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE ONSHORE DURING WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TURNING THE FLOW OFFSHORE AND INCREASING THE SPEEDS TO NEAR
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  46  69  51  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  73  48  69  53  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  69  42  69  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  70  44  68  49  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 270518
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1118 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST THINKING. SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION...WITH VFR/LT WINDS PREVAILING
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...DEW POINTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES DRIER THAN PROGGED
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SOUNDING STILL
VERY DRY WITH NOT A HINT OF CIRRUS WHICH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING TO
THE WEST ON THE LATEST IR STLT LOOP. TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT.
GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. REGARDING 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A BIT OF CIRRUS AROUND.
THUS VFR CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER
HEAD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRING OF
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS GOING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES. COULD BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN WITH THE RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM
AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE TO BRING OVER-RIDING RAIN BACK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
LESSENING THE GRADIENT. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 50F DEW
POINTS NEARING THE READINGS OF NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  43  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  65  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  61  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  42  70  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 270518
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1118 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST THINKING. SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION...WITH VFR/LT WINDS PREVAILING
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...DEW POINTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES DRIER THAN PROGGED
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SOUNDING STILL
VERY DRY WITH NOT A HINT OF CIRRUS WHICH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING TO
THE WEST ON THE LATEST IR STLT LOOP. TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT.
GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. REGARDING 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A BIT OF CIRRUS AROUND.
THUS VFR CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER
HEAD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRING OF
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS GOING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES. COULD BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN WITH THE RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM
AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE TO BRING OVER-RIDING RAIN BACK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
LESSENING THE GRADIENT. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 50F DEW
POINTS NEARING THE READINGS OF NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  43  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  65  43  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  61  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  42  70  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 270150
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
750 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...DEW POINTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES DRIER THAN PROGGED
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SOUNDING STILL
VERY DRY WITH NOT A HINT OF CIRRUS WHICH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING TO
THE WEST ON THE LATEST IR STLT LOOP. TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT.
GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. REGARDING 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A BIT OF CIRRUS AROUND.
THUS VFR CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER
HEAD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRING OF
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS GOING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES. COULD BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN WITH THE RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM
AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE TO BRING OVER-RIDING RAIN BACK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
LESSENING THE GRADIENT. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 50F DEW
POINTS NEARING THE READINGS OF NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  72  46  69  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  43  73  47  70  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  40  67  41  68  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  42  70  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 270150
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
750 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...DEW POINTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES DRIER THAN PROGGED
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SOUNDING STILL
VERY DRY WITH NOT A HINT OF CIRRUS WHICH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING TO
THE WEST ON THE LATEST IR STLT LOOP. TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT.
GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. REGARDING 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A BIT OF CIRRUS AROUND.
THUS VFR CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER
HEAD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRING OF
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS GOING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES. COULD BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN WITH THE RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM
AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE TO BRING OVER-RIDING RAIN BACK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
LESSENING THE GRADIENT. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 50F DEW
POINTS NEARING THE READINGS OF NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  42  72  46  69  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  43  73  47  70  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  40  67  41  68  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  42  70  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 262258
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
458 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. REGARDING 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A BIT OF CIRRUS AROUND.
THUS VFR CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER
HEAD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRING OF
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS GOING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES. COULD BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN WITH THE RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM
AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE TO BRING OVER-RIDING RAIN BACK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
LESSENING THE GRADIENT. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 50F DEW
POINTS NEARING THE READINGS OF NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  45  71  46  69  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  46  72  47  70  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  42  69  41  68  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  45  70  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 262258
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
458 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. REGARDING 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A BIT OF CIRRUS AROUND.
THUS VFR CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER
HEAD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRING OF
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS GOING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES. COULD BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN WITH THE RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM
AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE TO BRING OVER-RIDING RAIN BACK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT.

RUA

MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
LESSENING THE GRADIENT. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 50F DEW
POINTS NEARING THE READINGS OF NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  45  71  46  69  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  46  72  47  70  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  42  69  41  68  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  45  70  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 262037
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
237 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVER
HEAD. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S...WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRING OF
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS GOING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR A
WARMING TREND ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES. COULD BE
A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN WITH THE RETURN FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW...SHOULD KEEP
ANY SHOWERS FROM FORMING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GET CUT OFF FROM THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA. SOUTHERN STREAM
AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL HELP
INCREASE EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE...WITH A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EJECTING AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE
RESULT WILL BE TO BRING OVER-RIDING RAIN BACK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY INCREASING
MOISTURE VALUES...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
PROVIDING SOME EXTRA LIFT.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
LESSENING THE GRADIENT. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY SEA FOG BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO POOL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WITH LOW TO MID 50F DEW
POINTS NEARING THE READINGS OF NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  45  71  46  69  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  46  72  47  70  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  42  69  41  68  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  45  70  44  68  50 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 261720
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP A BIT OF CIRRUS AROUND. THUS VFR CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH HAS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.22 INCHES WHICH IS ONLY 29 PERCENT OF NORM. SO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR TODAY. ONLY CHANGE TO
THE GRIDS WAS A MINOR ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD TO THE DEW POINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

MARINE...WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
SCA AND SCEC STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK. AN UPDATED CWF AND
MWW HAS BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PER ALL THE DRY AIR SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED NRLY WINDS MAINLY
SRN SITES WILL LINGER TO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.

MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  65  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  61  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 261720
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ON A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME LIMITED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP A BIT OF CIRRUS AROUND. THUS VFR CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH HAS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.22 INCHES WHICH IS ONLY 29 PERCENT OF NORM. SO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR TODAY. ONLY CHANGE TO
THE GRIDS WAS A MINOR ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD TO THE DEW POINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

MARINE...WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
SCA AND SCEC STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK. AN UPDATED CWF AND
MWW HAS BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PER ALL THE DRY AIR SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED NRLY WINDS MAINLY
SRN SITES WILL LINGER TO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.

MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  65  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  61  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 261547
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH HAS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.22 INCHES WHICH IS ONLY 29 PERCENT OF NORM. SO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR TODAY. ONLY CHANGE TO
THE GRIDS WAS A MINOR ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD TO THE DEW POINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

MARINE...WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
SCA AND SCEC STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK. AN UPDATED CWF AND
MWW HAS BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PER ALL THE DRY AIR SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED NRLY WINDS MAINLY
SRN SITES WILL LINGER TO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.

MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  65  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  61  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 261547
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH HAS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.22 INCHES WHICH IS ONLY 29 PERCENT OF NORM. SO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR TODAY. ONLY CHANGE TO
THE GRIDS WAS A MINOR ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD TO THE DEW POINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

MARINE...WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
SCA AND SCEC STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK. AN UPDATED CWF AND
MWW HAS BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PER ALL THE DRY AIR SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED NRLY WINDS MAINLY
SRN SITES WILL LINGER TO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.

MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  65  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  61  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 261326
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
726 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.MARINE...WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
SCA AND SCEC STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK. AN UPDATED CWF AND
MWW HAS BEEN SENT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PER ALL THE DRY AIR SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED NRLY WINDS MAINLY
SRN SITES WILL LINGER TO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.

MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  64  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  60  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 261326
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
726 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.MARINE...WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE
SCA AND SCEC STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK. AN UPDATED CWF AND
MWW HAS BEEN SENT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PER ALL THE DRY AIR SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED NRLY WINDS MAINLY
SRN SITES WILL LINGER TO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.

MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  64  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  60  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 261133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
533 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PER ALL THE DRY AIR SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED NRLY WINDS MAINLY
SRN SITES WILL LINGER TO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.

MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  64  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  60  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 261133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
533 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PER ALL THE DRY AIR SHOWN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ENHANCED NRLY WINDS MAINLY
SRN SITES WILL LINGER TO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.

MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  64  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  60  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 260910
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.


&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  64  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  60  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 260910
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
310 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA WITH COOL AND DRY WEATHER
THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO VALUES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE FLOW WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE
AND WED. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WEAK RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS LIFTS NE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWINGING A WEAK FRONT SOUTH THU THAT
WILL STALL IN THE GULF. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO CA AND
GRADUALLY CUT OFF AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS BY LATE
WEEK AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND AS OVERRUNNING OCCURS.


&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. AS
THE RIDGE MOVES IN TODAY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU KEEPING
MARINE CONDITIONS OUT OF SCA CRITERIA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  45  71  46  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  64  46  71  48  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  60  42  68  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  60  44  69  44  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM CST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








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