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000
FXUS64 KLCH 271722
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Inflow into surface low over central Texas has increased above
what was earlier thought. Sustained winds between 20 and 25 mph
with gusts to 35 mph occurring over lower southeast Texas and
lower southwest Louisiana. Therefore, have issued a Wind Advisory
for that area for the remainder of the afternoon. Also, went ahead
and increased the exercise caution to small craft advisory for the
Cameron to High Island marine zones out 60 nm.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 955 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Earlier complex of thunderstorms continues to weaken over the
forecast area...and the remnant activity should not make much more
progress to the east and continue to weaken. Will keep decent pops
in the forecast for upper southeast Texas and west central
Louisiana for the remainder of the day...as once airmass
recovers...daytime heating should allow for redevelopment of
showers and storms...with numerous left over meso scale boundaries
serving as a focus. Pops will taper off the further to the
east...with just a slight chance for lower Acadiana. Remainder of
the forecast is unchanged at this time.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For the 05/27/16 1200 UTC TAF package.

AVIATION...
Line of convection currently pushing through E TX this morning
just moving into the KBPT area at this time. Inserted a tempo TSRA
here for the next few HRS, though that duration may prove too
long. Effects on downstream sites becomes increasingly uncertain,
and for that reason have only used VCTS at KAEX and KLCH, with no
mention at all for the Acadiana terminals. Doppler velocityestimates
in the stronger convection have been around 50KT at near 3K FT,
but gusts at the surface thus far have been closer to 20-25KT.
Will continue to monitor trends for possible AMDS, as it appears
the convection will reach KLCH sooner than indicated in the TAF.
Away from the convection, a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGS are expected
with south winds increasing and becoming gusty with daytime
mixing.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Today through Saturday.
Main forecast issues will be POPs especially over western parts of
the forecast area today and intensity of storms as they move
through southeast Texas this morning. Based on satellite and
radar...overall thunderstorm activity had weakened across
southeast Texas overnight as convection has increased and
intensified westward into central Texas. However...intense
convective line is beginning to organize northwest of Houston and
will likely move into southeast Texas later this morning. SPC has
issued a watch until 10 AM for southeast Texas as strong winds
and hail will be possible. Will maintain current fotrecast of
high POPs similar to ongoing forecast. Focus of stronger storms
and heavy appears to shifting further west in time. Also total QPF
through 12Z Saturday is forecasted under 1 inch so no FFA for now.
While upper trough axis will shift NE of area...rich thte air will
remain over the area so taper POPs to chance category for
Saturday. Highest POPs will remain over the north.

04

Long Term...Saturday night through Thursday
A fairly persistent weak upper ridge pattern is expected through
at least the middle of next week. With rich moisture still in
place...will continue with low-end diurnal rain chances through
Wednesday. Upper trough will begin to move into the southern
Plains by late next week. Both GFS and ECMWF are showing
impressive upper diffluent flow east of the trough which would
denote potential for more heavy rain events. Temperatures should
remain near normal through late next week.

04

MARINE...
Persistent high pressure will continue over the eastern U.S. through
Saturday. This will keep a modest gradient over the area through
Saturday.  Gradient should weaken by Sunday as high pressure builds
westward. This should bring a weak wind regime for the northern Gulf
and coastal areas for early next week.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  71  87  70 /  60  20  40  10
LCH  83  74  85  72 /  40  20  30  10
LFT  85  72  87  71 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  83  75  86  73 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LAZ041-042-073-
     074.

TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through late tonight for GMZ452-455-
     472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 PM CDT this evening through
     late tonight for GMZ450-470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 262335
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
635 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
Storms north of HGX continue to march towards southeast Texas
this evening. These storms look to lower vsby...ceilings...
and produce hail along with strong and gusty winds. Storms
expected to move through BPT in about one to two hours. Conds
to go ifr... LCH getting a bit of light rain although clouds
remain vfr.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds thickening up across the area now thanks to a combination
of scattered low level clouds and mid to upper level clouds from
thunderstorm blowoff. This thunderstorm activity was occurring
over the piney woods...prairies and lakes region of Texas...and
had edged into interior southeast Texas this afternoon.

Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s to near 90 in most of
southwest...central and south central Louisiana. However...thick
clouds and some rain cooled air had southeast Texas temperatures
reeling back into the lowers 80s south to the uppers 70s interior
southeast Texas.

The upper flow was southwesterly aloft ahead of a broad trough
which covered much of the southwest United States. A disturbance
ejected out of the main trough was now moving into the Houston
region. showers and thunderstorms...some severe...were beginning
to pick up steam. Most of this activity looked to be headed more
into the Piney Woods and northeast Texas this afternoon and
evening. However...no doubt some of the edge will eventually get
into southwest Texas and western Louisiana overnight. Have upped
the pops to account for current HRRR and MOS guidance which
appeared to bring this activity into our area...albeit...the
highest pops looks to be across interior southeast Texas. I did
not go as high as guidance this time around as some of this will
weaken with loss of daytime heating and the trajectory of the rain
indicates most will stay west of a Alexandria Lake Charles line.

Better rain chances, along with a risk of severe thunderstorms,
will come Friday and on into Saturday as the main trof with a
negatively tilted axis emerges east of the Rockies then
subsequently lifts out to the NE. Large hail/damaging winds appear
to be the primary hazards at this time. Convection will also be
quite efficient at rainfall production given progged PWATs near 2
inches.

The upper ridge will build back in a bit in the wake of the trof,
with rain chances decreasing back to a small diurnal PoP from
Sunday through early week. Disparity appears in the guidance by
mid week with the ECMWF breaking the ridge down again while the
GFS holds it firm. Capped PoPs at a low end chance.

06

MARINE... Onshore flow will prevail through the week as high
pressure remains established over the Southeast coast. The onshore
winds will increase tonight into Friday as a series of low
pressure systems develops over the Plains. Small craft should
exercise caution over the Gulf waters tonight through Friday
night.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  84  70  86 /  70  50  30  50
LCH  75  83  73  84 /  80  40  30  40
LFT  74  85  72  86 /  30  20  20  30
BPT  76  83  74  85 /  80  50  40  40

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through late Friday night for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1149 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Given similarities in forecast time-height sections over the past
day or so...went with a fairly persistent trend in this set of
TAFs. Basically expecting MVFR ceilings to develop around sunrise
at the southern terminals...possibly sooner at KBPT where some
lower clouds are already hanging around...and shortly thereafter
at KAEX. Also threw in a tempo for light fog at KAEX late tonight
based on lighter winds and climatology. The main story for
tomorrow again appears to be elevated srly winds...with ceilings
generally rising beginning mid/late morning.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1032 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...A very mild and quiet night ongoing. Forecast on
track and no evening update will be required.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...A surface ridge is centered over the southeast
states while a ridge aloft is also over the north central gulf
coast. This is keeping a moist south to southeast flow in place
while suppressing most shower activity outside of a few small
diurnal showers well inland. Nearly the same conditions will
prevail Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday and upper low will move across the
southwest states eroding the local upper ridge. This will allow
for rain chances to increase as multiple upper disturbances move
around the base of the larger trof. No frontal boundary is
expected to move into the region keeping most of the convection
diurnally driven.

Late in the weekend and into early next week a ridge aloft will
build back into the area suppressing pops and warming the high
temps back into the upper 80s to low 90s.

MARINE...Multiple low pressure systems will move across the
plains through Saturday. This will keep winds moderate. Late in
the weekend high pressure will settle back over the region
decreasing the wind speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  73  86 /  10  20  10  30
LCH  74  86  74  84 /  10  10  10  20
LFT  74  88  73  87 /  10  10  10  20
BPT  75  87  75  85 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$





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