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000
FXUS64 KLCH 161206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 161206
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 160831
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.


&&

.MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 160831
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.


&&

.MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  89  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  90  71  90  71  88 /  40  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  89  72  86 /  50  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 160433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THESE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TAF SITES
AND SOUTH OF KAEX...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87  72 /  20  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  88  74  87  72 /  20  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  88  70  89  70 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  87  73  88  72 /  20  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 160433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1133 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE NOTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THESE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR TAF SITES
AND SOUTH OF KAEX...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A SHORT WAVE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87  72 /  20  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  88  74  87  72 /  20  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  88  70  89  70 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  87  73  88  72 /  20  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 160239
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLFT/KARA/KLCH SITES THROUGH ABOUT 16/01Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR...SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87 /  20  70  40  40
KBPT  77  88  74  87 /  20  60  40  50
KAEX  72  88  70  89 /  20  70  20  30
KLFT  74  87  73  88 /  20  70  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 160239
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
939 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DIVIDE THE AREA NORTH AND
SOUTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. WILL LEAVE
TOKEN POPS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION
SO CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS OKAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLFT/KARA/KLCH SITES THROUGH ABOUT 16/01Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR...SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  73  87 /  20  70  40  40
KBPT  77  88  74  87 /  20  60  40  50
KAEX  72  88  70  89 /  20  70  20  30
KLFT  74  87  73  88 /  20  70  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06







000
FXUS64 KLCH 152333
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 16/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
KLFT/KARA/KLCH SITES THROUGH ABOUT 16/01Z...THEN ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VFR...SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH DECENT
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS AREA SEES INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM AN EASTERLY MOVING WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  83  74  86  72 /  30  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  85  75  87  72 /  30  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  82  70  89  71 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  83  72  87  72 /  30  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 152021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  83  74  86  72 /  30  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  85  75  87  72 /  30  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  82  70  89  71 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  83  72  87  72 /  30  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 152021
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
321 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PASSING BY TO THE WEST. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL BE RAMPING UP AS A DEEP TRAJECTORY FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND CARRIBBEAN TAKES PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN HIGHER THAN SEASONAL NORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIP WATER ABOUT A
STANDARD DEVIATION HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OUR
POPS LATER TNITE AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY SOME JET
STREAM ENERGY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH GOING FOR LIKELY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUESDAY. WENT
COOLER ON TEMPS DURING THE DAY TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WENT WITH A MINIMAL MENTION OF PRECIP
AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN YET MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY A MID
LATITUDE TROF THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT COULD MOVE
INTO OUR AREA AROUND MONDAY. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT COOLER ON THIS
FEATURE WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROF SO I CHOSE TO BLEND IN SOME OF
THE COOLER EURO WITH THE TEMPS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  83  74  86  72 /  30  70  40  40  20
KBPT  77  85  75  87  72 /  30  60  40  50  20
KAEX  72  82  70  89  71 /  20  70  20  30  20
KLFT  74  83  72  87  72 /  30  70  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 151742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1242 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
SMALL SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ONSHORE OVER THE PAST HOUR WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SIZE AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SITES AND
COME TO AN END BY 00Z. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST LIGHT PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. LFT AND ARA ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN AREAS FURTHER
WEST. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE GONE BY 14Z TUESDAY.

&&

66

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OUT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SOUTH
OF CAMERON WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST.
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND
JUST A VERY MINOR TWEAK LOWER ON TEMPS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE INLAND
AREA...WHILE RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS. LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH NO MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA. SOME LIGHT FOG CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RETURNING TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART DURING THE
DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE DOWN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST BY TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRAG ADDITION MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION... SOME EFFECTS OF
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND THIS WILL HOLD MOISTURE
IN PLACE... ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE TO
DEVELOP. THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS BLOW
OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO OUR REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS A END RESULT. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK AND BRING THE REGION MORE RAINFALL. RAINS LOOK TO
END TOWARDS FRIDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE WEST AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  87  74  88  72 /  20  60  20  40  20
KBPT  75  88  75  89  73 /  20  60  20  40  20
KAEX  71  87  70  89  68 /  20  50  20  30  20
KLFT  73  87  74  89  71 /  20  60  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 151459
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OUT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SOUTH
OF CAMERON WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST.
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND
JUST A VERY MINOR TWEAK LOWER ON TEMPS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE INLAND
AREA...WHILE RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS. LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH NO MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA. SOME LIGHT FOG CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RETURNING TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART DURING THE
DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE DOWN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST BY TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRAG ADDITION MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION... SOME EFFECTS OF
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND THIS WILL HOLD MOISTURE
IN PLACE... ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE TO
DEVELOP. THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS BLOW
OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO OUR REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS A END RESULT. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK AND BRING THE REGION MORE RAINFALL. RAINS LOOK TO
END TOWARDS FRIDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE WEST AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  74  88 /  40  20  60  20  40
KBPT  90  75  88  75  89 /  40  20  60  20  40
KAEX  88  71  87  70  89 /  30  20  50  20  30
KLFT  89  73  87  74  89 /  40  20  60  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 151459
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OUT IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SOUTH
OF CAMERON WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST.
MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS WAVE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FCST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS AND
JUST A VERY MINOR TWEAK LOWER ON TEMPS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE INLAND
AREA...WHILE RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS. LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH NO MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA. SOME LIGHT FOG CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RETURNING TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART DURING THE
DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE DOWN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST BY TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRAG ADDITION MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION... SOME EFFECTS OF
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND THIS WILL HOLD MOISTURE
IN PLACE... ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE TO
DEVELOP. THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS BLOW
OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO OUR REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS A END RESULT. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK AND BRING THE REGION MORE RAINFALL. RAINS LOOK TO
END TOWARDS FRIDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE WEST AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  74  88 /  40  20  60  20  40
KBPT  90  75  88  75  89 /  40  20  60  20  40
KAEX  88  71  87  70  89 /  30  20  50  20  30
KLFT  89  73  87  74  89 /  40  20  60  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 151135
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE INLAND
AREA...WHILE RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS. LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH NO MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA. SOME LIGHT FOG CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RETURNING TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART DURING THE
DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE DOWN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST BY TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRAG ADDITION MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION... SOME EFFECTS OF
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND THIS WILL HOLD MOISTURE
IN PLACE... ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE TO
DEVELOP. THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS BLOW
OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO OUR REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS A END RESULT. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK AND BRING THE REGION MORE RAINFALL. RAINS LOOK TO
END TOWARDS FRIDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE WEST AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  74  88 /  30  20  60  20  40
KBPT  90  75  88  75  89 /  30  20  60  20  40
KAEX  88  71  87  70  89 /  20  20  50  20  30
KLFT  89  73  87  74  89 /  30  20  60  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 151135
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONGOING ACROSS THE INLAND
AREA...WHILE RADAR DEPICTS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL
WATERS. LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. VFR
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH NO MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA. SOME LIGHT FOG CURRENTLY IN
PLACE WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RETURNING TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART DURING THE
DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE DOWN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST BY TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRAG ADDITION MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION... SOME EFFECTS OF
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND THIS WILL HOLD MOISTURE
IN PLACE... ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE TO
DEVELOP. THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS BLOW
OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO OUR REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS A END RESULT. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK AND BRING THE REGION MORE RAINFALL. RAINS LOOK TO
END TOWARDS FRIDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE WEST AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  74  88 /  30  20  60  20  40
KBPT  90  75  88  75  89 /  30  20  60  20  40
KAEX  88  71  87  70  89 /  20  20  50  20  30
KLFT  89  73  87  74  89 /  30  20  60  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 150957
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
457 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RETURNING TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART DURING THE
DAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S. A MORE TYPICAL FALL DAY FOR
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE DOWN TOWARDS
THE COAST.

CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TONIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST BY TOMORROW. THIS
WILL DRAG ADDITION MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION... SOME EFFECTS OF
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND THIS WILL HOLD MOISTURE
IN PLACE... ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILE TO
DEVELOP. THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS BLOW
OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS TEXAS
AND INTO OUR REGION. THE END RESULT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
COOLER AS A END RESULT. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK AND BRING THE REGION MORE RAINFALL. RAINS LOOK TO
END TOWARDS FRIDAY AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE WEST AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  74  87  74  88 /  30  20  60  20  40
KBPT  90  75  88  75  89 /  30  20  60  20  40
KAEX  88  71  87  70  89 /  20  20  50  20  30
KLFT  89  73  87  74  89 /  30  20  60  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER






000
FXUS64 KLCH 150252
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
952 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
NUDGED THE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
GETTING A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO EARLIER FORECAST TEMPERATURES. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BEING THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE
ADJUSTMENT. DEWPOINT VALUES WOULD INDICATE THERE IS SOME ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SOME MORE BEFORE RECOVERING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT JUST NORTH
OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

A TROUGH IN THE GULF EASTERLIES (AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH APEX NEAR
GULF POINT 24N 91W) WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY WESTWARD...REACHING
OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

THE TRAVELING TROUGH WILL LINK UP WITH A STATIONARY FRONT (WHICH
CURRENTLY DRAPES THROUGH GULF PORT THROUGH BROWNSVILLE).

THE MERGED TROUGH-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...WILL TRANSITION TO OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE TROPICAL LOW/WAVE HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A VERY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NOTED STREAMING FROM THE FL
PENINSULA TO THE BOC BETWEEN AN E-W ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE GULF
COAST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN. THE WAVE IS FCST TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY WWD AND BE NEARING THE MID TO LOWER TX COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH INTO THE
REGION...HELPING TO FURTHER MODIFY THE COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MON THROUGH WED...WITH TUE
REPRESENTING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM AS LIFT IS FURTHER AIDED BY A
DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES DECLINE ON THU AS DEEP MSTR IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH EAST WINDS RETURNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87 /  10  40  20  60
KBPT  72  90  76  88 /  10  40  20  60
KAEX  67  89  71  87 /  10  30  20  50
KLFT  70  89  74  87 /  10  50  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06







000
FXUS64 KLCH 150252
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
952 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
NUDGED THE TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE
GETTING A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO EARLIER FORECAST TEMPERATURES. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BEING THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE
ADJUSTMENT. DEWPOINT VALUES WOULD INDICATE THERE IS SOME ROOM FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SOME MORE BEFORE RECOVERING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT JUST NORTH
OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...

A TROUGH IN THE GULF EASTERLIES (AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH APEX NEAR
GULF POINT 24N 91W) WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY WESTWARD...REACHING
OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

THE TRAVELING TROUGH WILL LINK UP WITH A STATIONARY FRONT (WHICH
CURRENTLY DRAPES THROUGH GULF PORT THROUGH BROWNSVILLE).

THE MERGED TROUGH-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...WILL TRANSITION TO OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE TROPICAL LOW/WAVE HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A VERY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NOTED STREAMING FROM THE FL
PENINSULA TO THE BOC BETWEEN AN E-W ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE GULF
COAST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN. THE WAVE IS FCST TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY WWD AND BE NEARING THE MID TO LOWER TX COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH INTO THE
REGION...HELPING TO FURTHER MODIFY THE COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MON THROUGH WED...WITH TUE
REPRESENTING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM AS LIFT IS FURTHER AIDED BY A
DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES DECLINE ON THU AS DEEP MSTR IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH EAST WINDS RETURNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  89  75  87 /  10  40  20  60
KBPT  72  90  76  88 /  10  40  20  60
KAEX  67  89  71  87 /  10  30  20  50
KLFT  70  89  74  87 /  10  50  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 142331
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...

A TROUGH IN THE GULF EASTERLIES (AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH APEX NEAR
GULF POINT 24N 91W) WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY WESTWARD...REACHING
OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

THE TRAVELING TROUGH WILL LINK UP WITH A STATIONARY FRONT (WHICH
CURRENTLY DRAPES THROUGH GULF PORT THROUGH BROWNSVILLE).

THE MERGED TROUGH-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...WILL TRANSITION TO OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

21


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE TROPICAL LOW/WAVE HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A VERY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NOTED STREAMING FROM THE FL
PENINSULA TO THE BOC BETWEEN AN E-W ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE GULF
COAST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN. THE WAVE IS FCST TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY WWD AND BE NEARING THE MID TO LOWER TX COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH INTO THE
REGION...HELPING TO FURTHER MODIFY THE COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MON THROUGH WED...WITH TUE
REPRESENTING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM AS LIFT IS FURTHER AIDED BY A
DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES DECLINE ON THU AS DEEP MSTR IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH EAST WINDS RETURNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  89  75  87  73 /  10  40  20  60  20
KBPT  72  90  76  88  74 /  10  40  20  60  20
KAEX  69  89  71  87  69 /  10  30  20  50  20
KLFT  73  89  74  87  73 /  10  50  20  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 142331
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...

A TROUGH IN THE GULF EASTERLIES (AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH APEX NEAR
GULF POINT 24N 91W) WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY WESTWARD...REACHING
OFFSHORE BROWNSVILLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.

THE TRAVELING TROUGH WILL LINK UP WITH A STATIONARY FRONT (WHICH
CURRENTLY DRAPES THROUGH GULF PORT THROUGH BROWNSVILLE).

THE MERGED TROUGH-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...WILL TRANSITION TO OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

21


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE TROPICAL LOW/WAVE HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A VERY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NOTED STREAMING FROM THE FL
PENINSULA TO THE BOC BETWEEN AN E-W ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE GULF
COAST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN. THE WAVE IS FCST TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY WWD AND BE NEARING THE MID TO LOWER TX COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH INTO THE
REGION...HELPING TO FURTHER MODIFY THE COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MON THROUGH WED...WITH TUE
REPRESENTING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM AS LIFT IS FURTHER AIDED BY A
DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES DECLINE ON THU AS DEEP MSTR IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH EAST WINDS RETURNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  89  75  87  73 /  10  40  20  60  20
KBPT  72  90  76  88  74 /  10  40  20  60  20
KAEX  69  89  71  87  69 /  10  30  20  50  20
KLFT  73  89  74  87  73 /  10  50  20  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KLCH 142134
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
434 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE TROPICAL LOW/WAVE HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A VERY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NOTED STREAMING FROM THE FL
PENINSULA TO THE BOC BETWEEN AN E-W ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE GULF
COAST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN. THE WAVE IS FCST TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY WWD AND BE NEARING THE MID TO LOWER TX COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH INTO THE
REGION...HELPING TO FURTHER MODIFY THE COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MON THROUGH WED...WITH TUE
REPRESENTING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM AS LIFT IS FURTHER AIDED BY A
DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES DECLINE ON THU AS DEEP MSTR IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH EAST WINDS RETURNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  89  75  87 /  10  40  20  60
KBPT  73  90  76  88 /  10  40  20  60
KAEX  69  89  71  87 /  10  30  20  50
KLFT  73  89  74  87 /  10  50  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 142134
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
434 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE TROPICAL LOW/WAVE HAS FOUND ITSELF IN A VERY
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NOTED STREAMING FROM THE FL
PENINSULA TO THE BOC BETWEEN AN E-W ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE GULF
COAST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN. THE WAVE IS FCST TO
CONTINUE GENERALLY WWD AND BE NEARING THE MID TO LOWER TX COAST BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED FLOW AROUND
THIS FEATURE WILL IMPART A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH INTO THE
REGION...HELPING TO FURTHER MODIFY THE COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MON THROUGH WED...WITH TUE
REPRESENTING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM AS LIFT IS FURTHER AIDED BY A
DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES DECLINE ON THU AS DEEP MSTR IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH EAST WINDS RETURNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  89  75  87 /  10  40  20  60
KBPT  73  90  76  88 /  10  40  20  60
KAEX  69  89  71  87 /  10  30  20  50
KLFT  73  89  74  87 /  10  50  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 141749
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...LOW MVFR CIGS LIFTING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
MIX OUT FROM DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECTING VFR IN A FEW HOURS AS WE
MEET THE 83F THRESHOLD TO FINISH MIXING OUT THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFT AFTER THE FRONT OUT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WASHES OUT.

SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE AROUND AEX TOWARDS MORNING.
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERLY INVERTED TROF
APPROACHING ON MONDAY SHOULD SET OFF SCATTERED TSTMS ESPECIALLY
AROUND ACADIANA TERMINALS LFT AND ARA BEGINNING ABOUT 17Z (NOON).
WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THOSE AS WELL AS LCH. BPT AND AEX WILL SEE
THIS ACTIVITY BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND CLOUDY START TO THIS SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAVE FOR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN...SO A
WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 80S APPEARS WITHIN REACH. CONTINUED LEANING
TWD THE NAM AS DID THE PREVIOUS FCST...WHICH HAS DONE A BETTER JOB
OF DEPICTING THE CLOUD COVER AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO TRACK WWD...AND IS NOW
SOUTH OF THE SE LA COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
MAINTAINED THE INHERITED DRY FCST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE SCEC WAS RETAINED FOR THE 20-60NM
ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE RANGING FROM 006 TO 023 W/ MOST SITES LESS THAN 010.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 14 TO 15Z BEFORE LIFTING.
SKIES BECMG MVFR THRU ABOUT 17 TO 18Z AND XPCD TO BECM VFR DRG THE
AFTN HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...WITH LARGE
HIGH KEEPING PREVAILING NE FLOW OVER ALL OF OUR AREA. STILL SOME
OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA OVER THE FAR MARINE ZONES...AROUND
40-60NM S OF VERMILION BAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S!

MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINLY THE NAM12...CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE FROPA INVERSION (~900MB) FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAD
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM
AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WELL...MAINLY GOING LOWER/MID 80S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND
BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE
TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W FOR MON AFTERNOON...AND
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THRU THU. BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ANOTHER
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU...MORE OF A BACKDOOR TYPE...AS
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH DECREASED POPS FOR
FRI NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS THE CAA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THUS...SCEC CONTINUES THRU ~15Z. OTHERWISE...ECHOING THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BEGINNING MON
INTO LATE THU...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY FRI AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  73  90  74  87 /  10  10  50  30  60
KBPT  83  74  88  76  87 /  10  20  40  30  60
KAEX  81  68  90  70  88 /  10  10  40  30  60
KLFT  82  73  90  73  87 /  10  10  50  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 141749
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1249 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...LOW MVFR CIGS LIFTING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO
MIX OUT FROM DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECTING VFR IN A FEW HOURS AS WE
MEET THE 83F THRESHOLD TO FINISH MIXING OUT THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFT AFTER THE FRONT OUT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WASHES OUT.

SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE AROUND AEX TOWARDS MORNING.
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERLY INVERTED TROF
APPROACHING ON MONDAY SHOULD SET OFF SCATTERED TSTMS ESPECIALLY
AROUND ACADIANA TERMINALS LFT AND ARA BEGINNING ABOUT 17Z (NOON).
WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THOSE AS WELL AS LCH. BPT AND AEX WILL SEE
THIS ACTIVITY BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND CLOUDY START TO THIS SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAVE FOR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN...SO A
WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 80S APPEARS WITHIN REACH. CONTINUED LEANING
TWD THE NAM AS DID THE PREVIOUS FCST...WHICH HAS DONE A BETTER JOB
OF DEPICTING THE CLOUD COVER AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO TRACK WWD...AND IS NOW
SOUTH OF THE SE LA COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
MAINTAINED THE INHERITED DRY FCST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE SCEC WAS RETAINED FOR THE 20-60NM
ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE RANGING FROM 006 TO 023 W/ MOST SITES LESS THAN 010.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 14 TO 15Z BEFORE LIFTING.
SKIES BECMG MVFR THRU ABOUT 17 TO 18Z AND XPCD TO BECM VFR DRG THE
AFTN HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...WITH LARGE
HIGH KEEPING PREVAILING NE FLOW OVER ALL OF OUR AREA. STILL SOME
OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA OVER THE FAR MARINE ZONES...AROUND
40-60NM S OF VERMILION BAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S!

MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINLY THE NAM12...CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE FROPA INVERSION (~900MB) FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAD
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM
AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WELL...MAINLY GOING LOWER/MID 80S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND
BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE
TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W FOR MON AFTERNOON...AND
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THRU THU. BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ANOTHER
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU...MORE OF A BACKDOOR TYPE...AS
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH DECREASED POPS FOR
FRI NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS THE CAA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THUS...SCEC CONTINUES THRU ~15Z. OTHERWISE...ECHOING THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BEGINNING MON
INTO LATE THU...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY FRI AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  73  90  74  87 /  10  10  50  30  60
KBPT  83  74  88  76  87 /  10  20  40  30  60
KAEX  81  68  90  70  88 /  10  10  40  30  60
KLFT  82  73  90  73  87 /  10  10  50  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 141630
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND CLOUDY START TO THIS SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAVE FOR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN...SO A
WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 80S APPEARS WITHIN REACH. CONTINUED LEANING
TWD THE NAM AS DID THE PREVIOUS FCST...WHICH HAS DONE A BETTER JOB
OF DEPICTING THE CLOUD COVER AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO TRACK WWD...AND IS NOW
SOUTH OF THE SE LA COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
MAINTAINED THE INHERITED DRY FCST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE SCEC WAS RETAINED FOR THE 20-60NM
ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE RANGING FROM 006 TO 023 W/ MOST SITES LESS THAN 010.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 14 TO 15Z BEFORE LIFTING.
SKIES BECMG MVFR THRU ABOUT 17 TO 18Z AND XPCD TO BECM VFR DRG THE
AFTN HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...WITH LARGE
HIGH KEEPING PREVAILING NE FLOW OVER ALL OF OUR AREA. STILL SOME
OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA OVER THE FAR MARINE ZONES...AROUND
40-60NM S OF VERMILION BAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S!

MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINLY THE NAM12...CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE FROPA INVERSION (~900MB) FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAD
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM
AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WELL...MAINLY GOING LOWER/MID 80S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND
BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE
TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W FOR MON AFTERNOON...AND
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THRU THU. BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ANOTHER
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU...MORE OF A BACKDOOR TYPE...AS
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH DECREASED POPS FOR
FRI NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS THE CAA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THUS...SCEC CONTINUES THRU ~15Z. OTHERWISE...ECHOING THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BEGINNING MON
INTO LATE THU...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY FRI AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  73  90  74 /  10  10  50  30
KBPT  83  74  88  76 /  10  20  40  30
KAEX  81  68  90  70 /  10  10  40  30
KLFT  82  73  90  73 /  10  10  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 141630
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AND CLOUDY START TO THIS SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S SAVE FOR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CLOUDS STARTING TO THIN...SO A
WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 80S APPEARS WITHIN REACH. CONTINUED LEANING
TWD THE NAM AS DID THE PREVIOUS FCST...WHICH HAS DONE A BETTER JOB
OF DEPICTING THE CLOUD COVER AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO TRACK WWD...AND IS NOW
SOUTH OF THE SE LA COAST. THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
SOUTH...AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TODAY.
MAINTAINED THE INHERITED DRY FCST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
INTO THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE SCEC WAS RETAINED FOR THE 20-60NM
ZONES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE RANGING FROM 006 TO 023 W/ MOST SITES LESS THAN 010.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 14 TO 15Z BEFORE LIFTING.
SKIES BECMG MVFR THRU ABOUT 17 TO 18Z AND XPCD TO BECM VFR DRG THE
AFTN HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...WITH LARGE
HIGH KEEPING PREVAILING NE FLOW OVER ALL OF OUR AREA. STILL SOME
OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA OVER THE FAR MARINE ZONES...AROUND
40-60NM S OF VERMILION BAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S!

MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINLY THE NAM12...CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE FROPA INVERSION (~900MB) FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAD
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM
AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WELL...MAINLY GOING LOWER/MID 80S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND
BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE
TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W FOR MON AFTERNOON...AND
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THRU THU. BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ANOTHER
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU...MORE OF A BACKDOOR TYPE...AS
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH DECREASED POPS FOR
FRI NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS THE CAA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THUS...SCEC CONTINUES THRU ~15Z. OTHERWISE...ECHOING THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BEGINNING MON
INTO LATE THU...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY FRI AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  73  90  74 /  10  10  50  30
KBPT  83  74  88  76 /  10  20  40  30
KAEX  81  68  90  70 /  10  10  40  30
KLFT  82  73  90  73 /  10  10  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 141238
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
738 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE RANGING FROM 006 TO 023 W/ MOST SITES LESS THAN 010.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 14 TO 15Z BEFORE LIFTING.
SKIES BECMG MVFR THRU ABOUT 17 TO 18Z AND XPCD TO BECM VFR DRG THE
AFTN HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...WITH LARGE
HIGH KEEPING PREVAILING NE FLOW OVER ALL OF OUR AREA. STILL SOME
OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA OVER THE FAR MARINE ZONES...AROUND
40-60NM S OF VERMILION BAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S!

MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINLY THE NAM12...CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE FROPA INVERSION (~900MB) FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAD
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM
AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WELL...MAINLY GOING LOWER/MID 80S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND
BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE
TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W FOR MON AFTERNOON...AND
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THRU THU. BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ANOTHER
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU...MORE OF A BACKDOOR TYPE...AS
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH DECREASED POPS FOR
FRI NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS THE CAA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THUS...SCEC CONTINUES THRU ~15Z. OTHERWISE...ECHOING THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BEGINNING MON
INTO LATE THU...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY FRI AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  90  74  87 /  10  10  50  30  60
KBPT  83  73  88  76  87 /  10  20  40  30  60
KAEX  82  67  90  70  88 /  10  10  40  30  60
KLFT  83  72  90  73  87 /  10  10  50  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 141238
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
738 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS ARE RANGING FROM 006 TO 023 W/ MOST SITES LESS THAN 010.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 14 TO 15Z BEFORE LIFTING.
SKIES BECMG MVFR THRU ABOUT 17 TO 18Z AND XPCD TO BECM VFR DRG THE
AFTN HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...WITH LARGE
HIGH KEEPING PREVAILING NE FLOW OVER ALL OF OUR AREA. STILL SOME
OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA OVER THE FAR MARINE ZONES...AROUND
40-60NM S OF VERMILION BAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S!

MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINLY THE NAM12...CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE FROPA INVERSION (~900MB) FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAD
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM
AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WELL...MAINLY GOING LOWER/MID 80S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND
BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE
TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W FOR MON AFTERNOON...AND
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THRU THU. BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ANOTHER
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU...MORE OF A BACKDOOR TYPE...AS
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH DECREASED POPS FOR
FRI NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

MARINE...
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS THE CAA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THUS...SCEC CONTINUES THRU ~15Z. OTHERWISE...ECHOING THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BEGINNING MON
INTO LATE THU...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY FRI AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  90  74  87 /  10  10  50  30  60
KBPT  83  73  88  76  87 /  10  20  40  30  60
KAEX  82  67  90  70  88 /  10  10  40  30  60
KLFT  83  72  90  73  87 /  10  10  50  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 140755
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...WITH LARGE
HIGH KEEPING PREVAILING NE FLOW OVER ALL OF OUR AREA. STILL SOME
OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA OVER THE FAR MARINE ZONES...AROUND
40-60NM S OF VERMILION BAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S!

MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINLY THE NAM12...CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE FROPA INVERSION (~900MB) FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAD
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM
AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WELL...MAINLY GOING LOWER/MID 80S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND
BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE
TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W FOR MON AFTERNOON...AND
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THRU THU. BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ANOTHER
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU...MORE OF A BACKDOOR TYPE...AS
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH DECREASED POPS FOR
FRI NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS THE CAA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THUS...SCEC CONTINUES THRU ~15Z. OTHERWISE...ECHOING THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BEGINNING MON
INTO LATE THU...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY FRI AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  90  74  87 /  10  10  50  30  60
KBPT  83  73  88  76  87 /  10  20  40  30  60
KAEX  82  67  90  70  88 /  10  10  40  30  60
KLFT  83  72  90  73  87 /  10  10  50  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 140755
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...WITH LARGE
HIGH KEEPING PREVAILING NE FLOW OVER ALL OF OUR AREA. STILL SOME
OVER-RUNNING SHRA/ISO TSRA OVER THE FAR MARINE ZONES...AROUND
40-60NM S OF VERMILION BAY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS OBSERVED
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S!

MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINLY THE NAM12...CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE FROPA INVERSION (~900MB) FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING...BEGINNING TO MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAD
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH IT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THIS...LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM
AFTERNOON TEMPS AS WELL...MAINLY GOING LOWER/MID 80S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND
BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE
TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM E TO W FOR MON AFTERNOON...AND
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE THRU THU. BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI...ANOTHER
COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU...MORE OF A BACKDOOR TYPE...AS
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEPENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN...WITH DECREASED POPS FOR
FRI NEXT WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS THE CAA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THUS...SCEC CONTINUES THRU ~15Z. OTHERWISE...ECHOING THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE WITH INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BEGINNING MON
INTO LATE THU...WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY FRI AS THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  90  74  87 /  10  10  50  30  60
KBPT  83  73  88  76  87 /  10  20  40  30  60
KAEX  82  67  90  70  88 /  10  10  40  30  60
KLFT  83  72  90  73  87 /  10  10  50  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 140548
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1248 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SOME SITES THESE CONDITIONS
THIS WILL PERSIST THRU SUNRISE. OTHERWISE... VSBY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE VFR FLIGHT RULES AND STORMS OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATES TO THE GRIDS WERE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
AND WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
EVENING AS CAA CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE COASTAL ZONES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC
THROUGH 12Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THUS TIGHTENED UP
THE POP GRID TO REFLECT THIS.

BRAZZELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...WITH ALEXANDRIA AS OF YET NOT ECLIPSING THE 71 DEGREE
DAILY HIGH THAT OCCURRED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH HAVE FARED A LITTLE BETTER...THOUGH WE ARE STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME DEPTH. THUS...EXPECT THINNER
CLOUDS/MORE BREAKS TOMORROW...AND TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILING...THOUGH CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP MONDAY AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES WWD AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH LIKELY
POPS ON TUE AND HIGH CHANCES WED AS IT IS MET BY ANOTHER FRONT DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY A DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AMID CONTINENTAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUE TO LOOK AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OF THE
PERIOD.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  74  89  74  85 /  10  10  40  30  60
KBPT  88  75  89  76  87 /  10  10  40  40  60
KAEX  85  68  89  70  87 /  10  10  30  30  50
KLFT  88  74  89  74  86 /  20  20  50  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 140156
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
856 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATES TO THE GRIDS WERE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
AND WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
EVENING AS CAA CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE COASTAL ZONES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC
THROUGH 12Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THUS TIGHTENED UP
THE POP GRID TO REFLECT THIS.

BRAZZELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...WITH ALEXANDRIA AS OF YET NOT ECLIPSING THE 71 DEGREE
DAILY HIGH THAT OCCURRED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH HAVE FARED A LITTLE BETTER...THOUGH WE ARE STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME DEPTH. THUS...EXPECT THINNER
CLOUDS/MORE BREAKS TOMORROW...AND TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILING...THOUGH CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP MONDAY AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES WWD AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH LIKELY
POPS ON TUE AND HIGH CHANCES WED AS IT IS MET BY ANOTHER FRONT DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY A DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AMID CONTINENTAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUE TO LOOK AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OF THE
PERIOD.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  68  87  74  89 /  20  10  10  10  40
KBPT  79  68  88  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  40
KAEX  68  63  85  68  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
KLFT  76  68  88  74  89 /  30  10  20  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 140156
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
856 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATES TO THE GRIDS WERE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
AND WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS
EVENING AS CAA CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE COASTAL ZONES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED THE SCEC
THROUGH 12Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING JUST NORTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE EASTERN COASTAL ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THUS TIGHTENED UP
THE POP GRID TO REFLECT THIS.

BRAZZELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...WITH ALEXANDRIA AS OF YET NOT ECLIPSING THE 71 DEGREE
DAILY HIGH THAT OCCURRED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH HAVE FARED A LITTLE BETTER...THOUGH WE ARE STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME DEPTH. THUS...EXPECT THINNER
CLOUDS/MORE BREAKS TOMORROW...AND TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILING...THOUGH CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP MONDAY AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES WWD AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH LIKELY
POPS ON TUE AND HIGH CHANCES WED AS IT IS MET BY ANOTHER FRONT DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY A DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AMID CONTINENTAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUE TO LOOK AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OF THE
PERIOD.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  68  87  74  89 /  20  10  10  10  40
KBPT  79  68  88  75  89 /  20  10  10  10  40
KAEX  68  63  85  68  89 /  20  10  10  10  30
KLFT  76  68  88  74  89 /  30  10  20  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 132125
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
425 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...WITH ALEXANDRIA AS OF YET NOT ECLIPSING THE 71 DEGREE
DAILY HIGH THAT OCCURRED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH HAVE FARED A LITTLE BETTER...THOUGH WE ARE STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME DEPTH. THUS...EXPECT THINNER
CLOUDS/MORE BREAKS TOMORROW...AND TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILING...THOUGH CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP MONDAY AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES WWD AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH LIKELY
POPS ON TUE AND HIGH CHANCES WED AS IT IS MET BY ANOTHER FRONT DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY A DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AMID CONTINENTAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUE TO LOOK AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OF THE
PERIOD.

13

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  68  87  74  89 /  10  10  10  40
KBPT  68  88  75  89 /  10  10  10  40
KAEX  63  85  68  89 /  10  10  10  30
KLFT  68  88  74  89 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 132125
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
425 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED UNDER THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...WITH ALEXANDRIA AS OF YET NOT ECLIPSING THE 71 DEGREE
DAILY HIGH THAT OCCURRED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. READINGS FARTHER
SOUTH HAVE FARED A LITTLE BETTER...THOUGH WE ARE STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY LOSE SOME DEPTH. THUS...EXPECT THINNER
CLOUDS/MORE BREAKS TOMORROW...AND TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PREVAILING...THOUGH CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP MONDAY AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES WWD AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...WITH LIKELY
POPS ON TUE AND HIGH CHANCES WED AS IT IS MET BY ANOTHER FRONT DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY A DIGGING ERN CONUS TROF. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AGAIN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AMID CONTINENTAL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD CONTINUE TO LOOK AT OR BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING THE COOLEST OF THE
PERIOD.

13

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  68  87  74  89 /  10  10  10  40
KBPT  68  88  75  89 /  10  10  10  40
KAEX  63  85  68  89 /  10  10  10  30
KLFT  68  88  74  89 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 131743
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH. IFR TO LOW MVFR OVERRUNNING CIGS IS THE RULE. OPTING
TO GO OPPOSE GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS OPTIMISTIC ON IMPROVING CIGS
TO VFR AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT.

INSTEAD GOING WITH FCST VERTICAL PROFILES WHICH LOOK MORE
REASONABLE IN KEEPING THE LOW FRONTAL IVERSION IN PLACE WITH
MOISTURE. SO WILL GO SLOW ON IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH MVFR STARTING
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND SFC
OBS...AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATION OVER THE 20-60 NM MARINE ZONES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH CAA
HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN...CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND JUST S OF I-10.
WARM SPOT IS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA...WHERE NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS
ARE STILL OBSERVED OVER SAINT MARY AND LOWER ST MARTIN PARISHES.

CLOUD COVER DOES APPEAR TO BE THINNING A BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH OBS SHOWING A HINT OF WARMING
STARTING TO TAKE PLACE. FCST HIGHS WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT STILL LEFT SOME ROOM FOR A 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM
UP...WHICH MAY PROVE INSUFFICIENT SOUTH AND TOO GENEROUS NORTH. A
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FCST TO BE SURE.

RAIN CHANCES WERE ALSO LOWERED WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...HEADLINED SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS WEST
OF CAMERON FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20KT THE REST OF TODAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FROPA LAST EVE W/ CLOUD DECK ACRS THE REGION. NRLY WINDS TODAY
WITH STORMS TWRDS THE NOON HOUR. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS BEFORE ENDING BEFORE SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS THE 1031MB HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE U.S. RADAR SHOWING SCT
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE S...PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. SOME OVER-RUNNING SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND
MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT ABUNDANT TO THE SOUTH...HENCE KEEPING
CHANCE ~30% INLAND...HIGHER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
EXPECTED.

EXPECT DIMINISHED PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING AND SUN AS SOMEWHAT
COOLER BUT DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AN EARLY
TASTE OF FALL SOMEWHAT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND SE TX/C LA...BUT CLOSER TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FURTHER
SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND BRINGS
INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE TREND
OF INCREASED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AFTERNOON FOR C AND SC
LA...AND AREA WIDE TUE-THU. PART OF THIS WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO
ANOTHER COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FOR WED/THU TIME FRAME...WITH
DECREASED POPS EXPECTED BY FRI.

DML

MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL AND ONLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING
SUNDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  79  68  79  72  89 /  20  10  10  20  40
KBPT  79  68  79  73  89 /  20  10  10  20  30
KAEX  75  63  75  69  90 /  20  10  10  10  30
KLFT  81  68  81  73  89 /  30  10  10  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 131743
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1243 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH. IFR TO LOW MVFR OVERRUNNING CIGS IS THE RULE. OPTING
TO GO OPPOSE GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS OPTIMISTIC ON IMPROVING CIGS
TO VFR AND EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT.

INSTEAD GOING WITH FCST VERTICAL PROFILES WHICH LOOK MORE
REASONABLE IN KEEPING THE LOW FRONTAL IVERSION IN PLACE WITH
MOISTURE. SO WILL GO SLOW ON IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH MVFR STARTING
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND SFC
OBS...AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATION OVER THE 20-60 NM MARINE ZONES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH CAA
HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN...CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND JUST S OF I-10.
WARM SPOT IS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA...WHERE NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS
ARE STILL OBSERVED OVER SAINT MARY AND LOWER ST MARTIN PARISHES.

CLOUD COVER DOES APPEAR TO BE THINNING A BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH OBS SHOWING A HINT OF WARMING
STARTING TO TAKE PLACE. FCST HIGHS WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT STILL LEFT SOME ROOM FOR A 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM
UP...WHICH MAY PROVE INSUFFICIENT SOUTH AND TOO GENEROUS NORTH. A
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FCST TO BE SURE.

RAIN CHANCES WERE ALSO LOWERED WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...HEADLINED SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS WEST
OF CAMERON FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20KT THE REST OF TODAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FROPA LAST EVE W/ CLOUD DECK ACRS THE REGION. NRLY WINDS TODAY
WITH STORMS TWRDS THE NOON HOUR. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS BEFORE ENDING BEFORE SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS THE 1031MB HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE U.S. RADAR SHOWING SCT
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE S...PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. SOME OVER-RUNNING SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND
MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT ABUNDANT TO THE SOUTH...HENCE KEEPING
CHANCE ~30% INLAND...HIGHER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
EXPECTED.

EXPECT DIMINISHED PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING AND SUN AS SOMEWHAT
COOLER BUT DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AN EARLY
TASTE OF FALL SOMEWHAT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND SE TX/C LA...BUT CLOSER TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FURTHER
SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND BRINGS
INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE TREND
OF INCREASED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AFTERNOON FOR C AND SC
LA...AND AREA WIDE TUE-THU. PART OF THIS WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO
ANOTHER COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FOR WED/THU TIME FRAME...WITH
DECREASED POPS EXPECTED BY FRI.

DML

MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL AND ONLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING
SUNDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  79  68  79  72  89 /  20  10  10  20  40
KBPT  79  68  79  73  89 /  20  10  10  20  30
KAEX  75  63  75  69  90 /  20  10  10  10  30
KLFT  81  68  81  73  89 /  30  10  10  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 131653
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1153 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND SFC
OBS...AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATION OVER THE 20-60 NM MARINE ZONES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH CAA
HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN...CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND JUST S OF I-10.
WARM SPOT IS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA...WHERE NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS
ARE STILL OBSERVED OVER SAINT MARY AND LOWER ST MARTIN PARISHES.

CLOUD COVER DOES APPEAR TO BE THINNING A BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH OBS SHOWING A HINT OF WARMING
STARTING TO TAKE PLACE. FCST HIGHS WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT STILL LEFT SOME ROOM FOR A 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM
UP...WHICH MAY PROVE INSUFFICIENT SOUTH AND TOO GENEROUS NORTH. A
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FCST TO BE SURE.

RAIN CHANCES WERE ALSO LOWERED WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...HEADLINED SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS WEST
OF CAMERON FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20KT THE REST OF TODAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FROPA LAST EVE W/ CLOUD DECK ACRS THE REGION. NRLY WINDS TODAY
WITH STORMS TWRDS THE NOON HOUR. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS BEFORE ENDING BEFORE SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS THE 1031MB HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE U.S. RADAR SHOWING SCT
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE S...PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. SOME OVER-RUNNING SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND
MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT ABUNDANT TO THE SOUTH...HENCE KEEPING
CHANCE ~30% INLAND...HIGHER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
EXPECTED.

EXPECT DIMINISHED PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING AND SUN AS SOMEWHAT
COOLER BUT DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AN EARLY
TASTE OF FALL SOMEWHAT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND SE TX/C LA...BUT CLOSER TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FURTHER
SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND BRINGS
INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE TREND
OF INCREASED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AFTERNOON FOR C AND SC
LA...AND AREA WIDE TUE-THU. PART OF THIS WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO
ANOTHER COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FOR WED/THU TIME FRAME...WITH
DECREASED POPS EXPECTED BY FRI.

DML

MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL AND ONLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING
SUNDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  79  68  79  72 /  20  10  10  20
KBPT  79  68  79  73 /  20  10  10  20
KAEX  75  63  75  69 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  81  68  81  73 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 131653
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1153 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE PER SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND SFC
OBS...AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATION OVER THE 20-60 NM MARINE ZONES.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH CAA
HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN...CURRENTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND JUST S OF I-10.
WARM SPOT IS THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA...WHERE NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS
ARE STILL OBSERVED OVER SAINT MARY AND LOWER ST MARTIN PARISHES.

CLOUD COVER DOES APPEAR TO BE THINNING A BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES PER VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH OBS SHOWING A HINT OF WARMING
STARTING TO TAKE PLACE. FCST HIGHS WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT STILL LEFT SOME ROOM FOR A 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM
UP...WHICH MAY PROVE INSUFFICIENT SOUTH AND TOO GENEROUS NORTH. A
TRICKY TEMPERATURE FCST TO BE SURE.

RAIN CHANCES WERE ALSO LOWERED WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...HEADLINED SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS WEST
OF CAMERON FOR NORTH WINDS 15-20KT THE REST OF TODAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FROPA LAST EVE W/ CLOUD DECK ACRS THE REGION. NRLY WINDS TODAY
WITH STORMS TWRDS THE NOON HOUR. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN HRS BEFORE ENDING BEFORE SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS THE 1031MB HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST
REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE U.S. RADAR SHOWING SCT
SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.

WITH THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE S...PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. SOME OVER-RUNNING SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND
MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT ABUNDANT TO THE SOUTH...HENCE KEEPING
CHANCE ~30% INLAND...HIGHER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA...HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
EXPECTED.

EXPECT DIMINISHED PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING AND SUN AS SOMEWHAT
COOLER BUT DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. AN EARLY
TASTE OF FALL SOMEWHAT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND SE TX/C LA...BUT CLOSER TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FURTHER
SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RETURN OF SE
TO S WINDS ON MON. ALSO INCREASING IS THE GULF MOISTURE AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W ACROSS THE GULF...AND BRINGS
INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA. THUS...CONTINUED THE TREND
OF INCREASED POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AFTERNOON FOR C AND SC
LA...AND AREA WIDE TUE-THU. PART OF THIS WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO
ANOTHER COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FOR WED/THU TIME FRAME...WITH
DECREASED POPS EXPECTED BY FRI.

DML

MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUING IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL AND ONLY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING
SUNDAY AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH MID WEEK.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  79  68  79  72 /  20  10  10  20
KBPT  79  68  79  73 /  20  10  10  20
KAEX  75  63  75  69 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  81  68  81  73 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$







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