Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KLCH 251028
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, LEADING TO MVFR VSBY THRU 13Z.
OTHERWISE, VCSH LATER THIS MORNING, REPLACED WITH VCTS BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PERTURBATION FROM THE SW APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN
21-02Z WITH THE PEAK OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND MAXIMUM UPLIFT
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX AND THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
RIDGING ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES KEEPING UP A STEADY DELIVERY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED PWAT VALUES WELL
ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THESE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN. IN ADDITION WATER VAPOR
SHOWED YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND INTO FAR WRN TX.
CLOSE TO HOME 88DS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ONGOING ATTM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS JUST INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPORADIC LIGHT FOG.

GIVEN ALL THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NOT WITHOUT QUESTIONS ON TIMING. THE
WRN TX SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EWD TODAY...APPROACHING
THE SABINE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. COMBO OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION
OF BEST QPF VALUES BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS
AFTERNOON POPS TREND FROM GOOD CHANCE SERN ZONES TO HIGH LIKELY
OVER THE NWRN AREAS. ALSO INSERTED ISOLATED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE
WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...IN LINE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WINDS ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL 88D VWPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHEAR DECENT SHEAR SO A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MOST WIDESPREAD HIGH POPS ARE BEING CARRIED TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF
EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SEWD TO INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA
GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH FELL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT
WITH HIGHEST QPFS BEING CARRIED ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
ELECTED TO LEAVE THE WATCH AS INHERITED.

SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AFTERNOON POPS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS AND
INTERACTS WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING.

MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  71  84  72 /  60  70  60  20
LCH  85  73  86  74 /  60  70  50  20
LFT  85  74  84  72 /  50  60  60  30
BPT  85  73  84  75 /  60  70  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KLCH 251028
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, LEADING TO MVFR VSBY THRU 13Z.
OTHERWISE, VCSH LATER THIS MORNING, REPLACED WITH VCTS BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PERTURBATION FROM THE SW APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN
21-02Z WITH THE PEAK OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND MAXIMUM UPLIFT
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX AND THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
RIDGING ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES KEEPING UP A STEADY DELIVERY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED PWAT VALUES WELL
ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THESE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN. IN ADDITION WATER VAPOR
SHOWED YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND INTO FAR WRN TX.
CLOSE TO HOME 88DS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ONGOING ATTM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS JUST INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPORADIC LIGHT FOG.

GIVEN ALL THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NOT WITHOUT QUESTIONS ON TIMING. THE
WRN TX SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EWD TODAY...APPROACHING
THE SABINE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. COMBO OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION
OF BEST QPF VALUES BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS
AFTERNOON POPS TREND FROM GOOD CHANCE SERN ZONES TO HIGH LIKELY
OVER THE NWRN AREAS. ALSO INSERTED ISOLATED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE
WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...IN LINE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WINDS ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL 88D VWPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHEAR DECENT SHEAR SO A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MOST WIDESPREAD HIGH POPS ARE BEING CARRIED TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF
EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SEWD TO INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA
GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH FELL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT
WITH HIGHEST QPFS BEING CARRIED ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
ELECTED TO LEAVE THE WATCH AS INHERITED.

SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AFTERNOON POPS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS AND
INTERACTS WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING.

MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  71  84  72 /  60  70  60  20
LCH  85  73  86  74 /  60  70  50  20
LFT  85  74  84  72 /  50  60  60  30
BPT  85  73  84  75 /  60  70  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...08





000
FXUS64 KLCH 251028
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
528 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, LEADING TO MVFR VSBY THRU 13Z.
OTHERWISE, VCSH LATER THIS MORNING, REPLACED WITH VCTS BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT PERTURBATION FROM THE SW APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN
21-02Z WITH THE PEAK OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND MAXIMUM UPLIFT
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX AND THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
RIDGING ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES KEEPING UP A STEADY DELIVERY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED PWAT VALUES WELL
ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THESE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN. IN ADDITION WATER VAPOR
SHOWED YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND INTO FAR WRN TX.
CLOSE TO HOME 88DS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ONGOING ATTM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS JUST INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPORADIC LIGHT FOG.

GIVEN ALL THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NOT WITHOUT QUESTIONS ON TIMING. THE
WRN TX SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EWD TODAY...APPROACHING
THE SABINE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. COMBO OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION
OF BEST QPF VALUES BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS
AFTERNOON POPS TREND FROM GOOD CHANCE SERN ZONES TO HIGH LIKELY
OVER THE NWRN AREAS. ALSO INSERTED ISOLATED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE
WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...IN LINE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WINDS ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL 88D VWPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHEAR DECENT SHEAR SO A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MOST WIDESPREAD HIGH POPS ARE BEING CARRIED TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF
EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SEWD TO INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA
GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH FELL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT
WITH HIGHEST QPFS BEING CARRIED ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
ELECTED TO LEAVE THE WATCH AS INHERITED.

SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AFTERNOON POPS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS AND
INTERACTS WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING.

MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  71  84  72 /  60  70  60  20
LCH  85  73  86  74 /  60  70  50  20
LFT  85  74  84  72 /  50  60  60  30
BPT  85  73  84  75 /  60  70  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...08




000
FXUS64 KLCH 251015
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX AND THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
RIDGING ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES KEEPING UP A STEADY DELIVERY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED PWAT VALUES WELL
ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THESE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN. IN ADDITION WATER VAPOR
SHOWED YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND INTO FAR WRN TX.
CLOSE TO HOME 88DS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ONGOING ATTM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS JUST INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPORADIC LIGHT FOG.

GIVEN ALL THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NOT WITHOUT QUESTIONS ON TIMING. THE
WRN TX SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EWD TODAY...APPROACHING
THE SABINE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. COMBO OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION
OF BEST QPF VALUES BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS
AFTERNOON POPS TREND FROM GOOD CHANCE SERN ZONES TO HIGH LIKELY
OVER THE NWRN AREAS. ALSO INSERTED ISOLATED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE
WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...IN LINE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WINDS ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL 88D VWPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHEAR DECENT SHEAR SO A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MOST WIDESPREAD HIGH POPS ARE BEING CARRIED TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF
EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SEWD TO INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA
GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH FELL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT
WITH HIGHEST QPFS BEING CARRIED ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
ELECTED TO LEAVE THE WATCH AS INHERITED.

SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AFTERNOON POPS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS AND
INTERACTS WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  71  84  72 /  60  70  60  20
LCH  85  73  86  74 /  60  70  50  20
LFT  85  74  84  72 /  50  60  60  30
BPT  85  73  84  75 /  60  70  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KLCH 251015
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING
PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN TX AND THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
RIDGING ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES KEEPING UP A STEADY DELIVERY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED PWAT VALUES WELL
ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THESE CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN. IN ADDITION WATER VAPOR
SHOWED YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND INTO FAR WRN TX.
CLOSE TO HOME 88DS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ONGOING ATTM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS JUST INDICATE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SPORADIC LIGHT FOG.

GIVEN ALL THAT HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT NOT WITHOUT QUESTIONS ON TIMING. THE
WRN TX SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EWD TODAY...APPROACHING
THE SABINE VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. COMBO OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE
COPIOUS MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON LOCATION
OF BEST QPF VALUES BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL
BE FOUND OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUS
AFTERNOON POPS TREND FROM GOOD CHANCE SERN ZONES TO HIGH LIKELY
OVER THE NWRN AREAS. ALSO INSERTED ISOLATED SEVERE WORDING FOR THE
WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...IN LINE WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WINDS ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL 88D VWPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
SHEAR DECENT SHEAR SO A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MOST WIDESPREAD HIGH POPS ARE BEING CARRIED TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF
EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH SEWD TO INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA
GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS WHICH FELL OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT
WITH HIGHEST QPFS BEING CARRIED ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
ELECTED TO LEAVE THE WATCH AS INHERITED.

SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AFTERNOON POPS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS AND
INTERACTS WITH PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT
THANKS TO A PERSISTENT TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  71  84  72 /  60  70  60  20
LCH  85  73  86  74 /  60  70  50  20
LFT  85  74  84  72 /  50  60  60  30
BPT  85  73  84  75 /  60  70  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...TOOK PATCHY FOG OUT FOR
THE EARLY AM HOURS. EXPECTING VCTS DURING THE DAY HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...TOOK PATCHY FOG OUT FOR
THE EARLY AM HOURS. EXPECTING VCTS DURING THE DAY HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...TOOK PATCHY FOG OUT FOR
THE EARLY AM HOURS. EXPECTING VCTS DURING THE DAY HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 250154
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 250154
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 250154
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 250154
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 242352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 242352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 242352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 242352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 242133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  60  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  60  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 242133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  60  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  60  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 242133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  60  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  60  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241902
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 ISSUED
BY SPC UNTIL 8 PM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET
AND SHEAR IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLIER MCS. SOME ROTATION MAY OCCUR IN THE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS BAND...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  60  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  60  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  60  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  60  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241902
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 ISSUED
BY SPC UNTIL 8 PM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET
AND SHEAR IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLIER MCS. SOME ROTATION MAY OCCUR IN THE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS BAND...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  60  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  60  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  60  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  60  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 241750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  82  70  83 /  80  70  70  70
LCH  73  84  73  85 /  80  60  70  70
LFT  73  84  73  85 /  80  70  60  70
BPT  74  83  74  85 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  82  70  83 /  80  70  70  70
LCH  73  84  73  85 /  80  60  70  70
LFT  73  84  73  85 /  80  70  60  70
BPT  74  83  74  85 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 241656
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  70  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  50  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241656
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  70  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  50  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241656
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  70  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  50  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 241656
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  70  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  50  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 241449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  82  70  83 /  80  70  70  70
LCH  73  84  73  85 /  80  60  70  70
LFT  73  84  73  85 /  80  70  60  70
BPT  74  83  74  85 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  82  70  83 /  80  70  70  70
LCH  73  84  73  85 /  80  60  70  70
LFT  73  84  73  85 /  80  70  60  70
BPT  74  83  74  85 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 241209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 241209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 240945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.



&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 240945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.



&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 240945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.



&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 240945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.



&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 240259
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS ENDING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE
PROFILE CONDS TO DEEPEN. LOOKING FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT TMRW
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT AS STORMS IN CNTRL
TX MOV EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING STILL EXISTS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE...SO HAS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS STILL SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS
UP AGAINST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING DEEP MOIST FEED WITH DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL FORM
OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWN
POURS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS BAND
TO WORK WITH...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2
INCHES...TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...AND MEAN RH OVER 80
PERCENT. SO VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AS ACTIVITY
RAINS ITSELF OUT. HOWEVER...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (WET
GROUNDS...HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS)...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. CURRENT QPF
PROJECTIONS SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
(SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) IN THE WATCH AREA FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED
AS THE PATTERN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY SWITCH TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TAKING WITH IT THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT...ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO CALL FOR DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT MAY NEAR 20 KNOTS
AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE TIME...SO WILL KEEP JUST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  83  69  81 /  30  70  70  70
LCH  74  83  72  83 /  30  70  80  70
LFT  73  85  72  84 /  30  60  60  70
BPT  76  82  73  84 /  30  80  80  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 240259
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS ENDING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE
PROFILE CONDS TO DEEPEN. LOOKING FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT TMRW
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT AS STORMS IN CNTRL
TX MOV EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING STILL EXISTS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE...SO HAS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS STILL SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS
UP AGAINST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING DEEP MOIST FEED WITH DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL FORM
OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWN
POURS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS BAND
TO WORK WITH...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2
INCHES...TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...AND MEAN RH OVER 80
PERCENT. SO VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AS ACTIVITY
RAINS ITSELF OUT. HOWEVER...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (WET
GROUNDS...HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS)...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. CURRENT QPF
PROJECTIONS SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
(SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) IN THE WATCH AREA FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED
AS THE PATTERN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY SWITCH TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TAKING WITH IT THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT...ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO CALL FOR DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT MAY NEAR 20 KNOTS
AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE TIME...SO WILL KEEP JUST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  83  69  81 /  30  70  70  70
LCH  74  83  72  83 /  30  70  80  70
LFT  73  85  72  84 /  30  60  60  70
BPT  76  82  73  84 /  30  80  80  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 232042
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING STILL EXISTS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE...SO HAS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS STILL SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS
UP AGAINST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING DEEP MOIST FEED WITH DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL FORM
OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWN
POURS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS BAND
TO WORK WITH...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2
INCHES...TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...AND MEAN RH OVER 80
PERCENT. SO VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AS ACTIVITY
RAINS ITSELF OUT. HOWEVER...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (WET
GROUNDS...HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS)...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. CURRENT QPF
PROJECTIONS SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
(SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) IN THE WATCH AREA FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED
AS THE PATTERN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY SWITCH TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TAKING WITH IT THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT...ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO CALL FOR DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT MAY NEAR 20 KNOTS
AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE TIME...SO WILL KEEP JUST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  83  69  81 /  30  70  70  70
LCH  74  83  72  83 /  30  70  80  70
LFT  73  85  72  84 /  30  60  60  70
BPT  76  82  73  84 /  30  80  80  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 232042
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING STILL EXISTS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE...SO HAS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS STILL SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS
UP AGAINST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING DEEP MOIST FEED WITH DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL FORM
OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWN
POURS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS BAND
TO WORK WITH...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2
INCHES...TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...AND MEAN RH OVER 80
PERCENT. SO VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AS ACTIVITY
RAINS ITSELF OUT. HOWEVER...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (WET
GROUNDS...HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS)...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. CURRENT QPF
PROJECTIONS SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
(SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) IN THE WATCH AREA FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED
AS THE PATTERN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY SWITCH TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TAKING WITH IT THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT...ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO CALL FOR DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT MAY NEAR 20 KNOTS
AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE TIME...SO WILL KEEP JUST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  83  69  81 /  30  70  70  70
LCH  74  83  72  83 /  30  70  80  70
LFT  73  85  72  84 /  30  60  60  70
BPT  76  82  73  84 /  30  80  80  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231650
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO CAP AND A NORTHWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WHILE SUNDAY
LOOKING INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR
NEXT UPPER TROF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  20  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  30  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  20  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231650
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO CAP AND A NORTHWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WHILE SUNDAY
LOOKING INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR
NEXT UPPER TROF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  20  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  30  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  20  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231521
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231521
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 230935
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 230935
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 222347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND TOWARDS THE COAST. CEILING WILL REMAIN AROUND 025 TO 045 THEN
BEGIN TO DROP AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF PULLS
BACK TO THE NORTH. MVFR AFTR MIDNIGHT FOR CEILING ISSUES. STORMS
ON TAP FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET WEATHER DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
A MORE WET PATTER DEVELOPING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE...WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TOWARD THE PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LINE BY MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A
RETURN TO A MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL RESUME. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BY SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
LOCATED. THEN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY RETREATS.

LATER IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE USUAL PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM THE
PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY AND MOIST FLOW...WITH
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS WILL
ARRIVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2
INCHES...WHICH IS TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR LATE MAY...WITH
MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...MAKING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

THIS MOIST FEED WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...AREA WIDE RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED SPOTS. WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY
RUNNING AT HIGH LEVELS AND WET GROUNDS...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

RUA

MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST ALONG THE MARINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...WILL MOVE
BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST...AND INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY....IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS. THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  50
LCH  71  85  74  85 /  20  40  30  50
LFT  69  85  73  86 /  20  40  30  40
BPT  73  85  76  84 /  30  40  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 222347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND TOWARDS THE COAST. CEILING WILL REMAIN AROUND 025 TO 045 THEN
BEGIN TO DROP AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF PULLS
BACK TO THE NORTH. MVFR AFTR MIDNIGHT FOR CEILING ISSUES. STORMS
ON TAP FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET WEATHER DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
A MORE WET PATTER DEVELOPING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE...WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TOWARD THE PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LINE BY MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A
RETURN TO A MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL RESUME. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BY SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
LOCATED. THEN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY RETREATS.

LATER IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE USUAL PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM THE
PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY AND MOIST FLOW...WITH
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS WILL
ARRIVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2
INCHES...WHICH IS TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR LATE MAY...WITH
MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...MAKING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

THIS MOIST FEED WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...AREA WIDE RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED SPOTS. WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY
RUNNING AT HIGH LEVELS AND WET GROUNDS...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

RUA

MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST ALONG THE MARINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...WILL MOVE
BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST...AND INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY....IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS. THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  50
LCH  71  85  74  85 /  20  40  30  50
LFT  69  85  73  86 /  20  40  30  40
BPT  73  85  76  84 /  30  40  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 222347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND TOWARDS THE COAST. CEILING WILL REMAIN AROUND 025 TO 045 THEN
BEGIN TO DROP AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF PULLS
BACK TO THE NORTH. MVFR AFTR MIDNIGHT FOR CEILING ISSUES. STORMS
ON TAP FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET WEATHER DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
A MORE WET PATTER DEVELOPING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE...WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TOWARD THE PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LINE BY MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A
RETURN TO A MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL RESUME. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BY SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
LOCATED. THEN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY RETREATS.

LATER IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE USUAL PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM THE
PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY AND MOIST FLOW...WITH
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS WILL
ARRIVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2
INCHES...WHICH IS TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR LATE MAY...WITH
MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...MAKING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

THIS MOIST FEED WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...AREA WIDE RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED SPOTS. WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY
RUNNING AT HIGH LEVELS AND WET GROUNDS...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

RUA

MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST ALONG THE MARINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...WILL MOVE
BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST...AND INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY....IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS. THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  50
LCH  71  85  74  85 /  20  40  30  50
LFT  69  85  73  86 /  20  40  30  40
BPT  73  85  76  84 /  30  40  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 222115
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
415 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A RATHER QUIET WEATHER DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THINGS WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
A MORE WET PATTER DEVELOPING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE...WILL MOVE
BACK NORTH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TOWARD THE PLAINS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LINE BY MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...A
RETURN TO A MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL RESUME. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
BY SUNRISE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
LOCATED. THEN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING INLAND DURING THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY RETREATS.

LATER IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE USUAL PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT FROM THE
PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY AND MOIST FLOW...WITH
INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS WILL
ARRIVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 2
INCHES...WHICH IS TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR LATE MAY...WITH
MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...MAKING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

THIS MOIST FEED WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...AREA WIDE RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY...SHOW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED SPOTS. WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY
RUNNING AT HIGH LEVELS AND WET GROUNDS...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...JUST ALONG THE MARINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...WILL MOVE
BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST...AND INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY....IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND
AND BECOME WIDESPREAD FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS. THE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  50
LCH  71  85  74  85 /  20  40  30  50
LFT  69  85  73  86 /  20  40  30  40
BPT  73  85  76  84 /  30  40  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 221751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A DOME OF SHALLOW RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY LAYER ONSHORE FLOW ASCENDING THIS COOLER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MVFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE VICINITY
OF FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...HAS STALLED IN THE GULF JUST BEYOND THE MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY WARM TO NEAR 80F FOR
HIGHS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. VCSH/VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS PERIOD. NE TO EAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED CDFNT STRETCHED EAST TO WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR KEY FL TO CORPUS CHRISTI TX.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. INLAND...A PLEASANTLY COOL MORNING IS UNFOLDING...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10...ALONG WITH A GENTLE NORTH BREEZE.

EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WITH FRONT
FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT EVIDENT IN MODEL PROGS...ALONG WITH WEAK/FLAT RIDGING
SLIDING OVERHEAD. THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SURGES
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP WRN CONUS TROF. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE AND STRONGLY
DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST TO INCLUDE WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AREAWIDE BY MONDAY.

A LOW END SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST GIVEN PROGGED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF EXPECTED MSTR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SVR FOR NOW.

VERY GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE MEAN TROF...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS WED
AND THU AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST BUILDS A BIT WWD.

13

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  66  85  71 /  10  10  60  20
LCH  81  71  85  74 /  20  30  40  20
LFT  80  70  85  73 /  20  20  60  20
BPT  82  73  85  76 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 221751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A DOME OF SHALLOW RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY LAYER ONSHORE FLOW ASCENDING THIS COOLER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MVFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE VICINITY
OF FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...HAS STALLED IN THE GULF JUST BEYOND THE MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY WARM TO NEAR 80F FOR
HIGHS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. VCSH/VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS PERIOD. NE TO EAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED CDFNT STRETCHED EAST TO WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR KEY FL TO CORPUS CHRISTI TX.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. INLAND...A PLEASANTLY COOL MORNING IS UNFOLDING...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10...ALONG WITH A GENTLE NORTH BREEZE.

EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WITH FRONT
FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT EVIDENT IN MODEL PROGS...ALONG WITH WEAK/FLAT RIDGING
SLIDING OVERHEAD. THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SURGES
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP WRN CONUS TROF. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE AND STRONGLY
DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST TO INCLUDE WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AREAWIDE BY MONDAY.

A LOW END SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST GIVEN PROGGED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF EXPECTED MSTR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SVR FOR NOW.

VERY GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE MEAN TROF...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS WED
AND THU AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST BUILDS A BIT WWD.

13

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  66  85  71 /  10  10  60  20
LCH  81  71  85  74 /  20  30  40  20
LFT  80  70  85  73 /  20  20  60  20
BPT  82  73  85  76 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 221751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A DOME OF SHALLOW RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY LAYER ONSHORE FLOW ASCENDING THIS COOLER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MVFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE VICINITY
OF FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...HAS STALLED IN THE GULF JUST BEYOND THE MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY WARM TO NEAR 80F FOR
HIGHS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. VCSH/VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS PERIOD. NE TO EAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED CDFNT STRETCHED EAST TO WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR KEY FL TO CORPUS CHRISTI TX.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. INLAND...A PLEASANTLY COOL MORNING IS UNFOLDING...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10...ALONG WITH A GENTLE NORTH BREEZE.

EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WITH FRONT
FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT EVIDENT IN MODEL PROGS...ALONG WITH WEAK/FLAT RIDGING
SLIDING OVERHEAD. THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SURGES
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP WRN CONUS TROF. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE AND STRONGLY
DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST TO INCLUDE WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AREAWIDE BY MONDAY.

A LOW END SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST GIVEN PROGGED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF EXPECTED MSTR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SVR FOR NOW.

VERY GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE MEAN TROF...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS WED
AND THU AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST BUILDS A BIT WWD.

13

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  66  85  71 /  10  10  60  20
LCH  81  71  85  74 /  20  30  40  20
LFT  80  70  85  73 /  20  20  60  20
BPT  82  73  85  76 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 221751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...WEST TO EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A DOME OF SHALLOW RELATIVELY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY LAYER ONSHORE FLOW ASCENDING THIS COOLER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MVFR CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE VICINITY
OF FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...HAS STALLED IN THE GULF JUST BEYOND THE MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY WARM TO NEAR 80F FOR
HIGHS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. VCSH/VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS PERIOD. NE TO EAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED CDFNT STRETCHED EAST TO WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR KEY FL TO CORPUS CHRISTI TX.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. INLAND...A PLEASANTLY COOL MORNING IS UNFOLDING...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10...ALONG WITH A GENTLE NORTH BREEZE.

EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WITH FRONT
FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT EVIDENT IN MODEL PROGS...ALONG WITH WEAK/FLAT RIDGING
SLIDING OVERHEAD. THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SURGES
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP WRN CONUS TROF. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE AND STRONGLY
DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST TO INCLUDE WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AREAWIDE BY MONDAY.

A LOW END SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST GIVEN PROGGED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF EXPECTED MSTR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SVR FOR NOW.

VERY GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE MEAN TROF...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS WED
AND THU AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST BUILDS A BIT WWD.

13

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  66  85  71 /  10  10  60  20
LCH  81  71  85  74 /  20  30  40  20
LFT  80  70  85  73 /  20  20  60  20
BPT  82  73  85  76 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 221531
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...HAS STALLED IN THE GULF JUST BEYOND THE MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY WARM TO NEAR 80F FOR
HIGHS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. VCSH/VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS PERIOD. NE TO EAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED CDFNT STRETCHED EAST TO WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR KEY FL TO CORPUS CHRISTI TX.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. INLAND...A PLEASANTLY COOL MORNING IS UNFOLDING...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10...ALONG WITH A GENTLE NORTH BREEZE.

EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WITH FRONT
FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT EVIDENT IN MODEL PROGS...ALONG WITH WEAK/FLAT RIDGING
SLIDING OVERHEAD. THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SURGES
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP WRN CONUS TROF. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE AND STRONGLY
DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST TO INCLUDE WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AREAWIDE BY MONDAY.

A LOW END SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST GIVEN PROGGED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF EXPECTED MSTR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SVR FOR NOW.

VERY GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE MEAN TROF...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS WED
AND THU AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST BUILDS A BIT WWD.

13

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  66  85  71 /  10  10  60  20
LCH  81  71  85  74 /  20  30  40  20
LFT  80  70  85  73 /  20  20  60  20
BPT  82  73  85  76 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 221531
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...HAS STALLED IN THE GULF JUST BEYOND THE MARINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION
KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESPITE
THE SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY WARM TO NEAR 80F FOR
HIGHS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WORK BACK TO THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...POST FRONTAL STRATUS IS PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. VCSH/VCTS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS PERIOD. NE TO EAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED CDFNT STRETCHED EAST TO WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR KEY FL TO CORPUS CHRISTI TX.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY. INLAND...A PLEASANTLY COOL MORNING IS UNFOLDING...WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10...ALONG WITH A GENTLE NORTH BREEZE.

EXPECT MINIMAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WITH FRONT
FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT EVIDENT IN MODEL PROGS...ALONG WITH WEAK/FLAT RIDGING
SLIDING OVERHEAD. THAT WILL CHANGE SATURDAY AS THE FRONT SURGES
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION AMID A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING DEEP WRN CONUS TROF. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN ACTIVE AND STRONGLY
DIVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IMPINGES ON THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST TO INCLUDE WESTERN LOUISIANA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AREAWIDE BY MONDAY.

A LOW END SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST GIVEN PROGGED INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE
OF EXPECTED MSTR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. INCLUDED LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON SVR FOR NOW.

VERY GOOD RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE MEAN TROF...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS WED
AND THU AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT TO THE NE AND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST BUILDS A BIT WWD.

13

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST TO WEST OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST NORTHEAST
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING...THEN INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  66  85  71 /  10  10  60  20
LCH  81  71  85  74 /  20  30  40  20
LFT  80  70  85  73 /  20  20  60  20
BPT  82  73  85  76 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities