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000
FXUS64 KLCH 010459
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER LOWER ACADIANA...AFFECTING THE SERN TERMINALS BY
06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY KLCH/MAYBE
KBPT FIRST BEFORE REACHING KAEX LATER. MEANWHILE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS STILL SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IN BETTER CONFINEMENT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONT...AGAIN IMPACTING THE SERN SITES MORE
THAN THE OTHERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN SO
MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACADIANA POTENTIAL HIGHEST AREA-WIDE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. DID TRIM DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  82  68  77 /  30  60  50  80
LCH  71  81  71  79 /  40  60  50  80
LFT  71  82  74  80 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  83  71  80 /  30  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 010459
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER LOWER ACADIANA...AFFECTING THE SERN TERMINALS BY
06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY KLCH/MAYBE
KBPT FIRST BEFORE REACHING KAEX LATER. MEANWHILE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS STILL SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IN BETTER CONFINEMENT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONT...AGAIN IMPACTING THE SERN SITES MORE
THAN THE OTHERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN SO
MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACADIANA POTENTIAL HIGHEST AREA-WIDE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. DID TRIM DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  82  68  77 /  30  60  50  80
LCH  71  81  71  79 /  40  60  50  80
LFT  71  82  74  80 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  83  71  80 /  30  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 010244
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACADIANA POTENTIAL HIGHEST AREA-WIDE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. DID TRIM DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  82  68  77 /  30  60  50  80
LCH  71  81  71  79 /  40  60  50  80
LFT  71  82  74  80 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  83  71  80 /  30  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 010200
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  83  68  78 /  50  60  50  80
LCH  71  82  71  80 /  50  60  50  80
LFT  71  83  71  83 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  82  71  81 /  40  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 302130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  83  68  78 /  50  60  50  80
LCH  71  82  71  80 /  50  60  50  80
LFT  72  83  71  83 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  71  82  71  81 /  40  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301740
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...THE LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER HOUR FOR
LOWER ACADIANA WHILE SAINT LANDRY AND LAFAYETTE HAVE BEEN SHAVED
OFF.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...THE SVR WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA AND TIME TO
INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TO THE WEST HAVE
BEEN SHAVED OFF AS THE THREAT SHIFT EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LA IN THE UPDATE SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  83  68  78 /  60  50  40  70
LCH  71  82  71  80 /  50  60  40  60
LFT  72  83  71  83 /  60  70  30  60
BPT  71  82  71  81 /  40  50  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301544
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1044 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...THE SVR WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA AND TIME TO
INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TO THE WEST HAVE
BEEN SHAVED OFF AS THE THREAT SHIFT EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LA IN THE UPDATE SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 / 100  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 / 100  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 / 100  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LA IN THE UPDATE SHORTLY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301037
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 301037
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 300947
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 300425
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1125 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWING ALL SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ACROSS NE AND E TX...AND
JUST NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS N TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES IN E TX.
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS C AND N TX NOW...WILL LIKELY BE OUR WX MAKER FOR LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS...MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN POPS THRU 1 AM...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS THEREAFTER. SPC KEEPING GREATEST THREAT OVER NE TX THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...NO CHANGES IN HAZARD GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  90  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  80 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  82  72  82 /  20  70  70  70
BPT  72  80  71  81 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 300228
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
928 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWING ALL SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ACROSS NE AND E TX...AND
JUST NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS N TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES IN E TX.
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS C AND N TX NOW...WILL LIKELY BE OUR WX MAKER FOR LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS...MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN POPS THRU 1 AM...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS THEREAFTER. SPC KEEPING GREATEST THREAT OVER NE TX THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...NO CHANGES IN HAZARD GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  90  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  80 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  82  72  82 /  20  70  70  70
BPT  72  80  71  81 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08





000
FXUS64 KLCH 300228
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
928 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWING ALL SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ACROSS NE AND E TX...AND
JUST NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS N TYLER/JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES IN E TX.
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS C AND N TX NOW...WILL LIKELY BE OUR WX MAKER FOR LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS...MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD IN POPS THRU 1 AM...BUT HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER
POPS THEREAFTER. SPC KEEPING GREATEST THREAT OVER NE TX THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THUS...NO CHANGES IN HAZARD GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  90  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  80 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  82  72  82 /  20  70  70  70
BPT  72  80  71  81 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...08





000
FXUS64 KLCH 300005
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  81 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  83  72  82 /  20  60  60  70
BPT  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 300005
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...MVFR STRATOCU BLANKETS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST ROUND
OF RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  81 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  83  72  82 /  20  60  60  70
BPT  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 292054
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
354 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM MUGGY AIRMASS IS SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ALONG THE RED RIVER OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN SITUATED IN NORTHER LOUISIANA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ALL DAY
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS PATTERN IS VERY DIFFICULT AND
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE AS WELL WITH WILDLY VARYING
AMOUNTS. WHEREVER BANDS SETUP...WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILES THEY
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

TONIGHT THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE NORTHWEST OF A
ALEXANDRIA TO BEAUMONT LINE AND THUS WILL START THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THESE AREAS TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST TOMORROW AND THE WATCH WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST TOMORROW FOR
THE SAME POTENTIAL. RAINFALL IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RANGE 2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS
WELL.

FRONT GRADUALLY PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THUS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL COULD EXTEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TOO EARLY
FOR ME TO EXTEND BEYOND SUNDAY MORNING.

RIVER GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RIVERS TO GO INTO
MINOR FLOOD WITH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER SABINE AND CALCASIEU RIVERS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE OR HIGHER FLOODING.

STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS
DEVELOPING...WATER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE COASTAL WATER BODIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  82  69  81 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  81  70  81 /  40  70  70  70
LFT  74  83  72  82 /  20  60  60  70
BPT  72  81  71  81 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-041>044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027-030.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ430-
     432-435-450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...27





000
FXUS64 KLCH 291727
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT, HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL AS WELL.
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER WITH THE LOW PROB IT WAS LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
CLOSER.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR TO SOMETIMES IFR CEILINGS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY HAVE
BEEN LIMITED WITH AN ELEVATED SRLY SFC WIND KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE WINDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE MAINLY KBPT/KARA.
PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS. HOWEVER THAT BEGINS TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...WITH SHORT-
RANGE MODELS VARYING ON ARRIVAL TIMES OF A POTENTIAL LINE OF
CONVECTION.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVING
TO THE EAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET...BUT RATHER HUMID START TO THE FORECAST. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP...WITH NO REAL TRIGGER...EXCEPT
FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OFF TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY MORNING AND STALLS.

INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM THE FRONT
AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL ALLOW FOR A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THAT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES TONIGHT AND TO OVER 1.75 INCHES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...THESE VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE TWICE THE STANDARD
DEVIATION OF NORMAL. MEAN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE OVER 70 TO 80
PERCENT...SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
STORM TOTAL FROM WPC QPF AND MODEL BLEND...FAVOR 2 TO 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE NORTHWEST OF AN OPELOUSAS TO CAMERON LINE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF
THAT LINE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
LATER TODAY...AND IF THESE PRECIP NUMBERS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT WPC
DOES HAVE THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALSO...WITH SPEED MAX INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES...AND FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRAIGHTLINE WINDS FROM WET MICRO-BURSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. SPC ALSO HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK (SATURDAY.)

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY DECREASING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET
WILL AGAIN BRING DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE OVER-RIDING TYPE
SHOWERS...AND WITH DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS.
PWAT AND MEAN RH VALUES ARE AGAIN HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AGAIN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF WE
RECEIVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND.

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES MERGE BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL HELP BRING A DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A STEADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON EARLY MONDAY...AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  81  69  83 /  50  70  70  40
LCH  73  80  71  81 /  40  60  70  50
LFT  74  82  72  83 /  20  50  70  60
BPT  72  81  70  82 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 291215
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
715 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR TO SOMETIMES IFR CEILINGS PERSISTING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM ALTHOUGH RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY HAVE
BEEN LIMITED WITH AN ELEVATED SRLY SFC WIND KEEPING FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAIN STORY
WILL BE THE WINDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE MAINLY KBPT/KARA.
PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST
LEVELS. HOWEVER THAT BEGINS TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...WITH SHORT-
RANGE MODELS VARYING ON ARRIVAL TIMES OF A POTENTIAL LINE OF
CONVECTION.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVING
TO THE EAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET...BUT RATHER HUMID START TO THE FORECAST. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP...WITH NO REAL TRIGGER...EXCEPT
FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OFF TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY MORNING AND STALLS.

INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM THE FRONT
AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL ALLOW FOR A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THAT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES TONIGHT AND TO OVER 1.75 INCHES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...THESE VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE TWICE THE STANDARD
DEVIATION OF NORMAL. MEAN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE OVER 70 TO 80
PERCENT...SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
STORM TOTAL FROM WPC QPF AND MODEL BLEND...FAVOR 2 TO 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE NORTHWEST OF AN OPELOUSAS TO CAMERON LINE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF
THAT LINE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
LATER TODAY...AND IF THESE PRECIP NUMBERS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT WPC
DOES HAVE THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALSO...WITH SPEED MAX INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES...AND FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRAIGHTLINE WINDS FROM WET MICRO-BURSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. SPC ALSO HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK (SATURDAY.)

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY DECREASING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET
WILL AGAIN BRING DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE OVER-RIDING TYPE
SHOWERS...AND WITH DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS.
PWAT AND MEAN RH VALUES ARE AGAIN HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AGAIN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF WE
RECEIVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND.

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES MERGE BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL HELP BRING A DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A STEADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON EARLY MONDAY...AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  81  69 /  20  60  70  70
LCH  85  73  80  71 /  20  40  60  70
LFT  86  74  82  72 /  10  20  50  70
BPT  85  72  81  70 /  20  50  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 290954
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVING
TO THE EAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS SOUTHERN JET BECOMING MORE ACTIVE BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES
WILL COMBINE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET...BUT RATHER HUMID START TO THE FORECAST. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL OCCUR UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST AREA
TODAY WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CAP...WITH NO REAL TRIGGER...EXCEPT
FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY...BUT AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN OFF TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY MORNING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY MORNING AND STALLS.

INCREASING MOISTURE...ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT FROM THE FRONT
AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL ALLOW FOR A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. WITH ACTIVITY
REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THAT WILL KEEP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES TONIGHT AND TO OVER 1.75 INCHES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES ON
SATURDAY...THESE VALUES ARE AT OR ABOVE TWICE THE STANDARD
DEVIATION OF NORMAL. MEAN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE OVER 70 TO 80
PERCENT...SO CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PRODUCERS. THEREFORE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
STORM TOTAL FROM WPC QPF AND MODEL BLEND...FAVOR 2 TO 4 INCHES ON
AVERAGE NORTHWEST OF AN OPELOUSAS TO CAMERON LINE FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF
THAT LINE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
LATER TODAY...AND IF THESE PRECIP NUMBERS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT WPC
DOES HAVE THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ALSO...WITH SPEED MAX INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES...AND FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRAIGHTLINE WINDS FROM WET MICRO-BURSTS THE MAIN
CONCERN. SPC ALSO HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK (SATURDAY.)

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BRIEFLY DECREASING.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET
WILL AGAIN BRING DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE OVER-RIDING TYPE
SHOWERS...AND WITH DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS.
PWAT AND MEAN RH VALUES ARE AGAIN HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD...SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AGAIN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF WE
RECEIVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING THE WEEKEND.

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES MERGE BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL HELP BRING A DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A STEADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS ON
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE.

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON EARLY MONDAY...AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND STALLS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  81  69 /  20  60  70  70
LCH  85  73  80  71 /  20  40  60  70
LFT  86  74  82  72 /  10  20  50  70
BPT  85  72  81  70 /  20  50  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 290451
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1151 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...RADAR NOW CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP. SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS
SHOWING MVFR CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW
BREAKS OVER ACADIANA. EXPECTING THESE BREAKS TO FILL IN...WITH
ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS SEEING CEILINGS EASE DOWN TO WITHIN IFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO LIMIT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT LCH...BPT AND AEX. SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH ARA AND LFT WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARD MID-MORNING...WITH VFR THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DID TACK ON A PROB30
GROUP FOR THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING AT LCH...AEX AND BPT WITH THE
APPROACH OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MSTR AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
NWD MOVING SEA BREEZE AND WWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER
SE LA RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS WANED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST HR OR SO...AND HAVE ONLY LEFT
SMALL POPS IN THE FCST THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

FCST WAS OTHERWISE GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  20  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  20  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  20  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 290250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MSTR AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
NWD MOVING SEA BREEZE AND WWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER
SE LA RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS WANED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST HR OR SO...AND HAVE ONLY LEFT
SMALL POPS IN THE FCST THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

FCST WAS OTHERWISE GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  20  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  20  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  20  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 290250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MSTR AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
NWD MOVING SEA BREEZE AND WWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER
SE LA RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS WANED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST HR OR SO...AND HAVE ONLY LEFT
SMALL POPS IN THE FCST THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

FCST WAS OTHERWISE GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  20  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  20  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  20  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 282341
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  10  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  10  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 282341
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  10  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  10  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23





000
FXUS64 KLCH 282101
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  10  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  10  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281744
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1244 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MID AFTERNOON...NORTHERN
AREAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
OF VCSH POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA WHERE RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICKUP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR A GUST HERE AND
THERE.

&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MID AFTERNOON...NORTHERN
AREAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
OF VCSH POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA WHERE RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICKUP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR A GUST HERE AND
THERE.

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
REALLY WARM START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ABSENT ACROSS THESE AREAS
ESPECIALLY LAKE CHARLES. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING HIGHER
GULF TEMPERATURES FROM MODERATING THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE ALL
LEAD TO ONE INEVITABLE OUTCOME...IT IS GOING TO FEEL WARM OUT
THERE THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT ALREADY. HAVE UPPED THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
I ALSO MODERATED HOUR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AND RERUN A FEW
DAILY PRODUCTS LIKE THE SFT...PFM...AND FWF. I ALSO SHRINKED THE
PROBABILITY RAIN CONTOURS TO JUST A SMALL AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE A FEW CELL WILL DEVELOP BY NOON...
OTHERWISE...LEFT THIS AFTERNOON GFE GRID CONTOURS ALONE. FOR THE
PUBLIC THIS WILL MEAN DRY UP TO NOON MOST PLACES...THEN SAME POP
FOR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL THE PRODUCTS UPDATED ALREADY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE NOTED AT TAF SITES UNTIL MID
MORNING OR ROUGHLY 28/14-15Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE IN WINDS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIFT...BEING REPLACED WITH STRATO-CU HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
HEATING...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA...SO WILL PLACE VCSH AT
KARA/KLFT AFTER 28/18Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. NOW SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND THAT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FINALLY
MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS IS RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PER SPC...THERE WILL BE A SMALL
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND AS WELL...SO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER.

CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT MAY HOLD UP
NEAR THE COAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO FOR MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...IT
LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  86  69 /  20  10  30  60
LCH  87  73  82  73 /  20  10  20  60
LFT  87  73  85  73 /  30  10  10  30
BPT  87  74  83  72 /  20  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281743
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1243 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MID AFTERNOON...NORTHERN
AREAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
OF VCSH POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LA WHERE RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PICKUP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR A GUST HERE AND
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
REALLY WARM START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ABSENT ACROSS THESE AREAS
ESPECIALLY LAKE CHARLES. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING HIGHER
GULF TEMPERATURES FROM MODERATING THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE ALL
LEAD TO ONE INEVITABLE OUTCOME...IT IS GOING TO FEEL WARM OUT
THERE THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT ALREADY. HAVE UPPED THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
I ALSO MODERATED HOUR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AND RERUN A FEW
DAILY PRODUCTS LIKE THE SFT...PFM...AND FWF. I ALSO SHRINKED THE
PROBABILITY RAIN CONTOURS TO JUST A SMALL AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE A FEW CELL WILL DEVELOP BY NOON...
OTHERWISE...LEFT THIS AFTERNOON GFE GRID CONTOURS ALONE. FOR THE
PUBLIC THIS WILL MEAN DRY UP TO NOON MOST PLACES...THEN SAME POP
FOR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL THE PRODUCTS UPDATED ALREADY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE NOTED AT TAF SITES UNTIL MID
MORNING OR ROUGHLY 28/14-15Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE IN WINDS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIFT...BEING REPLACED WITH STRATO-CU HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
HEATING...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA...SO WILL PLACE VCSH AT
KARA/KLFT AFTER 28/18Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. NOW SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND THAT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FINALLY
MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS IS RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PER SPC...THERE WILL BE A SMALL
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND AS WELL...SO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER.

CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT MAY HOLD UP
NEAR THE COAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO FOR MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...IT
LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  86  69 /  20  10  30  60
LCH  87  73  82  73 /  20  10  20  60
LFT  87  73  85  73 /  30  10  10  30
BPT  87  74  83  72 /  20  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281602
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1102 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
REALLY WARM START TO THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ABSENT ACROSS THESE AREAS
ESPECIALLY LAKE CHARLES. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS KEEPING HIGHER
GULF TEMPERATURES FROM MODERATING THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE ALL
LEAD TO ONE INEVITABLE OUTCOME...IT IS GOING TO FEEL WARM OUT
THERE THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT ALREADY. HAVE UPPED THE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.
I ALSO MODERATED HOUR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AND RERUN A FEW
DAILY PRODUCTS LIKE THE SFT...PFM...AND FWF. I ALSO SHRINKED THE
PROBABILITY RAIN CONTOURS TO JUST A SMALL AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE A FEW CELL WILL DEVELOP BY NOON...
OTHERWISE...LEFT THIS AFTERNOON GFE GRID CONTOURS ALONE. FOR THE
PUBLIC THIS WILL MEAN DRY UP TO NOON MOST PLACES...THEN SAME POP
FOR FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL THE PRODUCTS UPDATED ALREADY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE NOTED AT TAF SITES UNTIL MID
MORNING OR ROUGHLY 28/14-15Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE IN WINDS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIFT...BEING REPLACED WITH STRATO-CU HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
HEATING...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA...SO WILL PLACE VCSH AT
KARA/KLFT AFTER 28/18Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. NOW SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND THAT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FINALLY
MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS IS RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PER SPC...THERE WILL BE A SMALL
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND AS WELL...SO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER.

CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT MAY HOLD UP
NEAR THE COAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO FOR MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...IT
LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  86  69 /  20  10  30  60
LCH  87  73  82  73 /  20  10  20  60
LFT  87  73  85  73 /  30  10  10  30
BPT  87  74  83  72 /  20  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281128
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE NOTED AT TAF SITES UNTIL MID
MORNING OR ROUGHLY 28/14-15Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE IN WINDS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIFT...BEING REPLACED WITH STRATO-CU HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
HEATING...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA...SO WILL PLACE VCSH AT
KARA/KLFT AFTER 28/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. NOW SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND THAT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FINALLY
MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS IS RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PER SPC...THERE WILL BE A SMALL
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND AS WELL...SO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER.

CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT MAY HOLD UP
NEAR THE COAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO FOR MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...IT
LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  71  86  69 /  20  10  30  60
LCH  83  73  82  73 /  20  10  20  60
LFT  84  73  85  73 /  30  10  10  30
BPT  83  74  83  72 /  20  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281128
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
628 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE NOTED AT TAF SITES UNTIL MID
MORNING OR ROUGHLY 28/14-15Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE IN WINDS...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIFT...BEING REPLACED WITH STRATO-CU HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
HEATING...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA...SO WILL PLACE VCSH AT
KARA/KLFT AFTER 28/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. NOW SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND THAT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FINALLY
MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS IS RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PER SPC...THERE WILL BE A SMALL
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND AS WELL...SO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER.

CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT MAY HOLD UP
NEAR THE COAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO FOR MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...IT
LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  71  86  69 /  20  10  30  60
LCH  83  73  82  73 /  20  10  20  60
LFT  84  73  85  73 /  30  10  10  30
BPT  83  74  83  72 /  20  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07





000
FXUS64 KLCH 280814
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. NOW SEEING A FEW
SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND THAT IS THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TODAY. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FINALLY
MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY. WHAT THAT MEANS IS RAIN CHANCES
WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PER SPC...THERE WILL BE A SMALL
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND AS WELL...SO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER.

CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT MAY HOLD UP
NEAR THE COAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SCENARIO FOR MONDAY. BEYOND THAT...IT
LOOKS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  71  86  69 /  20  10  30  60
LCH  83  73  82  73 /  20  10  20  60
LFT  84  73  85  73 /  30  10  10  30
BPT  83  74  83  72 /  20  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15





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