000
FXUS64 KLCH 241645
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
SCATTERED CATEGORY.
ALSO...MINOR CHANGE TO THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
24/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS AT KLCH AND IFR VISBYS AND OCCASIONAL CIGS AT KBPT THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT ERN SITES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE IS LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY
LT VRBL WINDS EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT DRIFTING NE TO SW ACRS THE
AREA WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A TS AND INCLUDED VCSH MENTION AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING. LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING AT SRN SITES OVERNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY IN TEXAS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT KEEPING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK...WITH JUST A FEW
SPOTS SO FAR REPORTING PATCHY FOG. WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST WITH
DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND IT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REACH THE DEW POINT READING. A FEW SPOTS
MAY SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/4SM...MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
THEN BISECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. STILL DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE
AS A FOCUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF ACTIVITY AGAIN WAITS
TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT A STORM MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG WITH HAIL AND
DOWN BURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...PROVIDING A COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOR THOSE AREAS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HUMID
CONDITIONS MAY HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
WITH THIS...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE DRY SIDE FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY...WITH WARM DAYS AND SEASONABLE NIGHTS.
A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BRINGING BACK DECENT GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
RUA
MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE COAST TONIGHT AND WASHING OUT ON
SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY EASTERLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF CAMERON DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE EAST. THIS BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 70 87 68 87 / 30 10 10 10 10
KBPT 88 71 87 70 87 / 30 10 20 10 10
KAEX 87 64 88 66 89 / 30 10 10 10 10
KLFT 89 69 88 67 87 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 241154
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
24/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS AT KLCH AND IFR VISBYS AND OCCASIONAL CIGS AT KBPT THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT ERN SITES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE IS LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY
LT VRBL WINDS EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT DRIFTING NE TO SW ACRS THE
AREA WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A TS AND INCLUDED VCSH MENTION AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING. LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING AT SRN SITES OVERNIGHT. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY IN TEXAS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT KEEPING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK...WITH JUST A FEW
SPOTS SO FAR REPORTING PATCHY FOG. WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST WITH
DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND IT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REACH THE DEW POINT READING. A FEW SPOTS
MAY SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/4SM...MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
THEN BISECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. STILL DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE
AS A FOCUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF ACTIVITY AGAIN WAITS
TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT A STORM MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG WITH HAIL AND
DOWN BURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...PROVIDING A COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOR THOSE AREAS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HUMID
CONDITIONS MAY HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
WITH THIS...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE DRY SIDE FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY...WITH WARM DAYS AND SEASONABLE NIGHTS.
A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BRINGING BACK DECENT GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
RUA
MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE COAST TONIGHT AND WASHING OUT ON
SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY EASTERLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF CAMERON DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE EAST. THIS BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 88 68 88 67 / 20 10 10 10
KBPT 88 71 87 70 / 20 10 20 10
KAEX 87 64 88 66 / 20 10 10 10
KLFT 90 69 88 67 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24
000
FXUS64 KLCH 240857
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
357 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY IN TEXAS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT KEEPING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK...WITH JUST A FEW
SPOTS SO FAR REPORTING PATCHY FOG. WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST WITH
DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND IT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REACH THE DEW POINT READING. A FEW SPOTS
MAY SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/4SM...MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
THEN BISECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. STILL DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE
AS A FOCUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF ACTIVITY AGAIN WAITS
TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT A STORM MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG WITH HAIL AND
DOWN BURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...PROVIDING A COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOR THOSE AREAS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HUMID
CONDITIONS MAY HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
WITH THIS...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE DRY SIDE FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY...WITH WARM DAYS AND SEASONABLE NIGHTS.
A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BRINGING BACK DECENT GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
RUA
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE COAST TONIGHT AND WASHING OUT ON
SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY EASTERLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF CAMERON DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE EAST. THIS BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 70 87 68 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 88 71 87 70 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KAEX 87 64 88 66 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
KLFT 89 69 88 67 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 240505
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WHAT EFFECT THE APPROACHING CIRRUS
WILL HAVE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE CLOUD DECK ENCROACHING PORTIONS
OF THE AREA NOW LOOKS RATHER THIN AND SHOULD NOT RETARD FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOO MUCH...HOWEVER UPSTREAM CIRRUS IS MUCH THICKER PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THIS
CIRRUS IS MORE SWD WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS CONTINUED EARLIER TREND OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z...WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH LOWER VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE. THEREAFTER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP POST-SUNRISE. MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LACKING
THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING POPS THROUGH 06Z AS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. AFTER
THIS...ATTENTION TURNS TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ERUPTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER C AND SC LA ALONG A
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX...AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND PVA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EARLIER MCS OVER THE ARKLATEX. THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO REFORM ALONG ITS OWN GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU SUNSET.
THUS...KEPT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUP FOR AEX/LFT/ARA THRU 02Z FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z...BECOMING
MORE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBY
FOR LCH/LFT/ARA BETWEEN 09-13Z.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DISPLAYED
ON RADAR, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING FEATURED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND
MOISTURE BELOW. A VEERING WIND PROFILE, IDENTIFIED BY CLOCKWISE
WINDS, EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT IF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUFFICIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PAIRED WITH THE DRIER AIR EXISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE FELT, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE, MEMORIAL DAY, AS WELL AS THE
REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RESULT OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA.
STACKHOUSE
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LOCALLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NEAR
20 KTS BY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 89 69 87 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 70 86 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 70 87 62 87 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 90 68 88 66 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 240117
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
817 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING POPS THROUGH 06Z AS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. AFTER
THIS...ATTENTION TURNS TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ERUPTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER C AND SC LA ALONG A
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX...AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND PVA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EARLIER MCS OVER THE ARKLATEX. THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO REFORM ALONG ITS OWN GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU SUNSET.
THUS...KEPT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUP FOR AEX/LFT/ARA THRU 02Z FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z...BECOMING
MORE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBY
FOR LCH/LFT/ARA BETWEEN 09-13Z.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DISPLAYED
ON RADAR, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING FEATURED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND
MOISTURE BELOW. A VEERING WIND PROFILE, IDENTIFIED BY CLOCKWISE
WINDS, EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT IF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUFFICIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PAIRED WITH THE DRIER AIR EXISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE FELT, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE, MEMORIAL DAY, AS WELL AS THE
REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RESULT OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA.
STACKHOUSE
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LOCALLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NEAR
20 KTS BY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 89 69 87 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 70 86 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 70 87 62 87 64 / 30 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 90 68 88 66 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 232336
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ERUPTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER C AND SC LA ALONG A
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX...AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND PVA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EARLIER MCS OVER THE ARKLATEX. THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO REFORM ALONG ITS OWN GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU SUNSET.
THUS...KEPT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUP FOR AEX/LFT/ARA THRU 02Z FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z...BECOMING
MORE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBY
FOR LCH/LFT/ARA BETWEEN 09-13Z.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DISPLAYED
ON RADAR, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING FEATURED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND
MOISTURE BELOW. A VEERING WIND PROFILE, IDENTIFIED BY CLOCKWISE
WINDS, EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT IF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUFFICIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PAIRED WITH THE DRIER AIR EXISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE FELT, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE, MEMORIAL DAY, AS WELL AS THE
REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RESULT OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA.
STACKHOUSE
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LOCALLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NEAR
20 KTS BY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 89 69 87 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 70 86 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 70 87 62 87 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 90 68 88 66 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 232017
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DISPLAYED
ON RADAR, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING FEATURED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND
MOISTURE BELOW. A VEERING WIND PROFILE, IDENTIFIED BY CLOCKWISE
WINDS, EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT IF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUFFICIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PAIRED WITH THE DRIER AIR EXISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE FELT, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE, MEMORIAL DAY, AS WELL AS THE
REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RESULT OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA.
STACKHOUSE
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LOCALLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NEAR
20 KTS BY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 89 69 87 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 70 86 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 70 87 62 87 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 90 68 88 66 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 231707
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...REACHING A SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LINE BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
SINKING AIR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL TRAPPED MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE..BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET THIS MORNING AND
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN AREAS OF FOG AT ALL SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING EXCEPT KLCH WHERE LIFR VISBYS OF 1/4-1/2 SM HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW HOURS. CIGS/FOG WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING AT SRN SITES BY MIDNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
BECOME MAINLY DIFFUSE AS IT DRIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING
BEHIND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS
THE FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY BOUNCING
AROUND BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 3SM...AND THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER AS ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WITH DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL RIDGE DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND WASH-OUT ON SATURDAY FROM ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND
RATHER WARM MEMORIAL DAY.
RUA
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN WASH OUT
ON SATURDAY. BRIEF EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME
BY SUNDAY...AND INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH AGAIN
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 71 89 69 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KBPT 88 71 88 70 86 / 20 10 20 10 10
KAEX 91 69 88 63 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KLFT 89 71 89 67 88 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 231427
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
927 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET THIS MORNING AND
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN AREAS OF FOG AT ALL SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING EXCEPT KLCH WHERE LIFR VISBYS OF 1/4-1/2 SM HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW HOURS. CIGS/FOG WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING AT SRN SITES BY MIDNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
BECOME MAINLY DIFFUSE AS IT DRIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING
BEHIND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS
THE FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY BOUNCING
AROUND BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 3SM...AND THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER AS ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WITH DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL RIDGE DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND WASH-OUT ON SATURDAY FROM ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND
RATHER WARM MEMORIAL DAY.
RUA
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN WASH OUT
ON SATURDAY. BRIEF EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME
BY SUNDAY...AND INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH AGAIN
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 71 89 69 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KBPT 88 71 88 70 86 / 20 10 20 10 10
KAEX 91 69 88 63 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KLFT 89 71 89 67 88 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 231142
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN AREAS OF FOG AT ALL SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING EXCEPT KLCH WHERE LIFR VISBYS OF 1/4-1/2 SM HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW HOURS. CIGS/FOG WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING AT SRN SITES BY MIDNIGHT. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
BECOME MAINLY DIFFUSE AS IT DRIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING
BEHIND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS
THE FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY BOUNCING
AROUND BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 3SM...AND THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER AS ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WITH DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL RIDGE DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND WASH-OUT ON SATURDAY FROM ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND
RATHER WARM MEMORIAL DAY.
RUA
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN WASH OUT
ON SATURDAY. BRIEF EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME
BY SUNDAY...AND INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH AGAIN
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 70 89 67 / 20 10 20 10
KBPT 88 71 88 70 / 20 10 20 10
KAEX 91 69 88 63 / 20 10 20 10
KLFT 89 71 89 67 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24
000
FXUS64 KLCH 230855
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
BECOME MAINLY DIFFUSE AS IT DRIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING
BEHIND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS
THE FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY BOUNCING
AROUND BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 3SM...AND THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER AS ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WITH DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL RIDGE DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND WASH-OUT ON SATURDAY FROM ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND
RATHER WARM MEMORIAL DAY.
RUA
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN WASH OUT
ON SATURDAY. BRIEF EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME
BY SUNDAY...AND INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH AGAIN
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 71 89 69 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KBPT 88 71 88 70 86 / 20 10 20 10 10
KAEX 91 69 88 63 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KLFT 89 71 89 67 88 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 230439
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FROM RAINS ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...RETURNING TO
VFR.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET. ADJUSTED HOURLY DEWPOINTS UP
A BIT TO BETTER AGREE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND ALSO NUDGED FCST
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO. LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS...AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. PATCHY FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR DEPICTING JUST
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ACADIANA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE THROUGH
THE COOLING EVENING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS A
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FROM
RAINS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY...RETURNING TO VFR.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING TROUGH DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE REGION WITH THE
BEST DIVERGENCE PUSHING EAST INTO SE LA AND MS. WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE DEPARTING, THE MID TO UPPER LVLS DRYING, AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND INTO THURSDAY THAT A FEW ISOLD SHRA
AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION PUSHING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES, HOWEVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE COMING WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 89 71 89 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
KBPT 72 88 71 88 70 / 10 20 10 20 10
KAEX 68 91 69 88 63 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 69 89 71 89 67 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 230315
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET. ADJUSTED HOURLY DEWPOINTS UP
A BIT TO BETTER AGREE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND ALSO NUDGED FCST
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO. LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS...AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. PATCHY FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR DEPICTING JUST
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ACADIANA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE THROUGH
THE COOLING EVENING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS A
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FROM
RAINS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY...RETURNING TO VFR.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING TROUGH DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE REGION WITH THE
BEST DIVERGENCE PUSHING EAST INTO SE LA AND MS. WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE DEPARTING, THE MID TO UPPER LVLS DRYING, AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND INTO THURSDAY THAT A FEW ISOLD SHRA
AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION PUSHING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES, HOWEVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE COMING WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 89 71 89 / 10 20 10 20
KBPT 72 88 71 88 / 10 20 10 20
KAEX 68 91 69 88 / 10 20 10 20
KLFT 69 89 71 89 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 222352
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR DEPICTING JUST
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ACADIANA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE THROUGH
THE COOLING EVENING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS A
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FROM
RAINS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY...RETURNING TO VFR.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING TROUGH DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE REGION WITH THE
BEST DIVERGENCE PUSHING EAST INTO SE LA AND MS. WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE DEPARTING, THE MID TO UPPER LVLS DRYING, AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND INTO THURSDAY THAT A FEW ISOLD SHRA
AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION PUSHING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES, HOWEVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE COMING WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 89 71 89 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
KBPT 71 88 71 88 70 / 10 20 10 20 10
KAEX 66 91 69 88 63 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 89 71 89 67 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 222024
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING TROUGH DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE REGION WITH THE
BEST DIVERGENCE PUSHING EAST INTO SE LA AND MS. WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE DEPARTING, THE MID TO UPPER LVLS DRYING, AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND INTO THURSDAY THAT A FEW ISOLD SHRA
AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION PUSHING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES, HOWEVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE COMING WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 89 71 89 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
KBPT 71 88 71 88 70 / 10 20 10 20 10
KAEX 66 91 69 88 63 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 89 71 89 67 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 221747
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW LINGERING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER S-CNTL
LA...THUS INCLUDED THUNDER AT KLFT/KARA THROUGH 20Z TO ACCOUNT.
EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY PUSH EWD AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TAKES
HOLD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG/LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AT
THE SRN SITES...OTHERWISE VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED INTO THE
AREA DURING THIS MORNING WITH SCT STORMS. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND RETURN NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, AND WITH
THE BOUNDARY AROUND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...
DID A QUICK CLEAN UP TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING IS NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS...AS PREFRONTAL TROF AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE THE SOUTH. ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HELD ON
TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS...AS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HANG
AROUND THE AREA...AND MAY HELP FOCUS DAYTIME HEATING ACTIVITY.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
22/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
BKN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT KBPT...KLCH...KLFT AND KARA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH AND DIMINISHING.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AT THESE SITES THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT KAEX WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. VRBL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SLY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10...BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FRONT. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS...HELPING TO PROVIDE
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH IS GIVING A BIT OF AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN...WITH HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE DOWN BURST WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE ASPECTS.
ALSO...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A BIT OF A TRAINING TO THE STORMS
COULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE. AND FINALLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THAT WILL COMBINE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN CHANCES.
RUA
MARINE...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE EAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 86 71 87 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
KBPT 87 72 87 71 88 / 50 10 20 10 20
KAEX 87 68 90 70 88 / 30 10 20 10 20
KLFT 87 71 89 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 221442
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
942 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED INTO THE
AREA DURING THIS MORNING WITH SCT STORMS. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND RETURN NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, AND WITH
THE BOUNDARY AROUND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...
DID A QUICK CLEAN UP TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING IS NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS...AS PREFRONTAL TROF AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE THE SOUTH. ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HELD ON
TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS...AS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HANG
AROUND THE AREA...AND MAY HELP FOCUS DAYTIME HEATING ACTIVITY.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
22/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
BKN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT KBPT...KLCH...KLFT AND KARA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH AND DIMINISHING.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AT THESE SITES THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT KAEX WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. VRBL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SLY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10...BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FRONT. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS...HELPING TO PROVIDE
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH IS GIVING A BIT OF AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN...WITH HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE DOWN BURST WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE ASPECTS.
ALSO...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A BIT OF A TRAINING TO THE STORMS
COULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE. AND FINALLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THAT WILL COMBINE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN CHANCES.
RUA
MARINE...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE EAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 86 71 87 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
KBPT 87 72 87 71 88 / 50 10 20 10 20
KAEX 87 68 90 70 88 / 30 10 20 10 20
KLFT 87 71 89 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 221219
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
719 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK CLEAN UP TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING IS NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS...AS PREFRONTAL TROF AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE THE SOUTH. ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HELD ON
TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS...AS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HANG
AROUND THE AREA...AND MAY HELP FOCUS DAYTIME HEATING ACTIVITY.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
22/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
BKN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT KBPT...KLCH...KLFT AND KARA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH AND DIMINISHING.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AT THESE SITES THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT KAEX WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. VRBL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SLY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10...BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FRONT. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS...HELPING TO PROVIDE
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH IS GIVING A BIT OF AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN...WITH HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE DOWN BURST WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE ASPECTS.
ALSO...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A BIT OF A TRAINING TO THE STORMS
COULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE. AND FINALLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THAT WILL COMBINE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN CHANCES.
RUA
MARINE...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE EAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 86 71 87 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
KBPT 87 72 87 71 88 / 50 10 20 10 20
KAEX 87 68 90 70 88 / 30 10 20 10 20
KLFT 87 71 89 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 221152
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
22/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
BKN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT KBPT...KLCH...KLFT AND KARA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH AND DIMINISHING.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AT THESE SITES THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT KAEX WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. VRBL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SLY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10...BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FRONT. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS...HELPING TO PROVIDE
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH IS GIVING A BIT OF AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN...WITH HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE DOWN BURST WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE ASPECTS.
ALSO...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A BIT OF A TRAINING TO THE STORMS
COULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE. AND FINALLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THAT WILL COMBINE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN CHANCES.
RUA
MARINE...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE EAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 86 70 88 70 / 50 10 20 10
KBPT 87 72 87 71 / 50 10 20 10
KAEX 87 68 90 70 / 60 10 20 10
KLFT 87 72 89 71 / 50 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24
000
FXUS64 KLCH 220911
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
411 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10...BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FRONT. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS...HELPING TO PROVIDE
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH IS GIVING A BIT OF AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN...WITH HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE DOWN BURST WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE ASPECTS.
ALSO...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A BIT OF A TRAINING TO THE STORMS
COULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE. AND FINALLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THAT WILL COMBINE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN CHANCES.
RUA
&&
.MARINE...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE EAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 86 71 87 71 89 / 50 10 20 10 20
KBPT 87 72 87 71 88 / 50 10 20 10 20
KAEX 87 68 90 70 88 / 60 10 20 10 20
KLFT 87 71 89 71 89 / 50 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 220502
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FINAL UPDATE OF THE EVENING TO EXPAND LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH RADAR TRENDS AND AVAILABLE 00Z
MODEL DATA MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT CONVECTION WILL REACH DEEPER INTO
SE TX/SW LA.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
EARLIER POP/WX UPDATES FOR BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE
STILL ON TARGET...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION OF ANY CONSEQUENCE WILL GET. CONTINUED
TO LEAVE FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONE...WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOULD RADAR
TRENDS AND/OR 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST OTHERWISE...AS SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE...THEN ANOTHER UPDATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED DECENT
RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA...HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF PCPN
CLOUDS THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST AS WELL...BUT WITH IT LIKELY TO AT
LEAST AFFECT EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LA...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FCST
AND DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED A GOOD 5 OR SO DEGREES IN THESE AREAS.
FINALLY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NO LONGER SUPPORT THE SCEC
HEADLINE...SO THIS HAZARD WAS REMOVED.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS UNTIL 1 AM. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTENSIVE QLCS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE SE INTO PARTS OF EAST TX/CENTRAL LA...WHICH IS REASONABLE
GIVEN RAPID PROGRESSION OF LEADING OUTFLOW...WHICH IS ONLY 20 MIN
OR SO AWAY FROM REACHING NW VERNON PARISH. HOW STNG/SVR THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT WIDESPREAD 30KT WIND
GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER VALUES SEEMS LIKELY. POPS/WX
GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST
MODEL DATA/RADAR TRENDS...BUT LEFT FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT UNCHANGED
AT THIS TIME.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH TX AND OK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE MID TO LOW LVLS. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EAST OK AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DFW METRO WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AREA AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF
THE CWA OR RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH EDGE, HOWEVER THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S AND EAST ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
TONIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST, BUT THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GIVE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM INTO WED MORNING. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH WED WHILE THE BEST DIVERGENCE
PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING WILL AGAIN OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HOWEVER A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE IN FRI
OR EARLY SAT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH, HOWEVER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS MAY FILTER IN ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT DURING SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS RUNNING AROUND 15 KTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE DURING WED MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, BUT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 74 86 71 88 / 70 50 10 20
KBPT 73 87 72 88 / 70 50 10 20
KAEX 67 87 68 90 / 70 60 20 20
KLFT 76 87 71 89 / 50 60 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 220356
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
EARLIER POP/WX UPDATES FOR BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE
STILL ON TARGET...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING AS
TO HOW FAR SOUTH CONVECTION OF ANY CONSEQUENCE WILL GET. CONTINUED
TO LEAVE FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONE...WHICH MAINTAINS HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOULD RADAR
TRENDS AND/OR 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGEST OTHERWISE...AS SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE...THEN ANOTHER UPDATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED DECENT
RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA...HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF PCPN
CLOUDS THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST AS WELL...BUT WITH IT LIKELY TO AT
LEAST AFFECT EAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LA...THE LOW TEMPERATURE FCST
AND DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED A GOOD 5 OR SO DEGREES IN THESE AREAS.
FINALLY...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NO LONGER SUPPORT THE SCEC
HEADLINE...SO THIS HAZARD WAS REMOVED.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS UNTIL 1 AM. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTENSIVE QLCS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE SE INTO PARTS OF EAST TX/CENTRAL LA...WHICH IS REASONABLE
GIVEN RAPID PROGRESSION OF LEADING OUTFLOW...WHICH IS ONLY 20 MIN
OR SO AWAY FROM REACHING NW VERNON PARISH. HOW STNG/SVR THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT WIDESPREAD 30KT WIND
GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER VALUES SEEMS LIKELY. POPS/WX
GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST
MODEL DATA/RADAR TRENDS...BUT LEFT FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT UNCHANGED
AT THIS TIME.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH TX AND OK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE MID TO LOW LVLS. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EAST OK AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DFW METRO WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AREA AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF
THE CWA OR RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH EDGE, HOWEVER THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S AND EAST ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
TONIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST, BUT THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GIVE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM INTO WED MORNING. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH WED WHILE THE BEST DIVERGENCE
PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING WILL AGAIN OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HOWEVER A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE IN FRI
OR EARLY SAT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH, HOWEVER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS MAY FILTER IN ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT DURING SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS RUNNING AROUND 15 KTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE DURING WED MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, BUT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 74 86 71 88 / 50 50 10 20
KBPT 73 87 72 88 / 50 50 10 20
KAEX 67 87 68 90 / 70 60 20 20
KLFT 76 87 71 89 / 30 60 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 220126
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
826 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS UNTIL 1 AM. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTENSIVE QLCS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE SE INTO PARTS OF EAST TX/CENTRAL LA...WHICH IS REASONABLE
GIVEN RAPID PROGRESSION OF LEADING OUTFLOW...WHICH IS ONLY 20 MIN
OR SO AWAY FROM REACHING NW VERNON PARISH. HOW STNG/SVR THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT WIDESPREAD 30KT WIND
GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER VALUES SEEMS LIKELY. POPS/WX
GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST
MODEL DATA/RADAR TRENDS...BUT LEFT FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT UNCHANGED
AT THIS TIME.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH TX AND OK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE MID TO LOW LVLS. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EAST OK AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DFW METRO WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AREA AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF
THE CWA OR RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH EDGE, HOWEVER THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S AND EAST ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
TONIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST, BUT THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GIVE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM INTO WED MORNING. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH WED WHILE THE BEST DIVERGENCE
PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING WILL AGAIN OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HOWEVER A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE IN FRI
OR EARLY SAT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH, HOWEVER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS MAY FILTER IN ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT DURING SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS RUNNING AROUND 15 KTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE DURING WED MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, BUT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 86 71 88 / 50 50 10 20
KBPT 73 87 72 88 / 50 50 10 20
KAEX 71 87 68 90 / 70 60 20 20
KLFT 74 87 71 89 / 30 60 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 212056
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
356 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS NORTH TX AND OK THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAK RIDGING IS
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE MID TO LOW LVLS. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EAST OK AND DOWN THROUGH THE
DFW METRO WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AREA AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF
THE CWA OR RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH EDGE, HOWEVER THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S AND EAST ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
TONIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST, BUT THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GIVE AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM INTO WED MORNING. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH WED WHILE THE BEST DIVERGENCE
PASSES TO THE EAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING WILL AGAIN OCCUR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, HOWEVER A VERY WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE IN FRI
OR EARLY SAT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH, HOWEVER A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS MAY FILTER IN ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT DURING SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
&&
.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS RUNNING AROUND 15 KTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE DURING WED MORNING AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES, BUT STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 86 71 88 71 / 40 50 10 20 10
KBPT 73 87 72 88 71 / 40 50 10 20 10
KAEX 71 87 68 90 70 / 60 60 20 20 10
KLFT 74 87 71 89 71 / 30 60 20 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 211800
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS CARRIED THROUGH THIS
ROUND AS WELL. SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS APLENTY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CEILINGS SLOWLY RISE...AND
ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR SHORTLY. LOCAL 88DS SHOW A FEW SPOTTY SMALL
SHOWERS POPPING UP MAINLY INLAND AND THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET LOW CLOUDS WILL AGAIN
FILL IN WILL CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STILL SEEING HINTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT...
THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONTINUED WITH STRONGEST WORDING AT KAEX..LESS SO OTHER SITES
ESPECIALLY SERN TERMINALS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET FOR NOW, HOWEVER
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE THE TEMP AND RH GRIDS FOR TODAY.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER WX ELEMENT WAS TOUCHED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE
DAY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE LIFTING FROM MVFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PUSH THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL
PLACE SOME PROB30 GROUPS AT KAEX/KBPT/KLCH AROUND 22/06Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT HOLDS TOGETHER WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH KARA/KLFT UNTIL THE VERY END OR AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY BRINGING
A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD MAKE FOR A WARM AND DRY
HOLDIDAY WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS LATER TODAY AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF OUR ZONES. USED THE
EURO BEGINNING TONIGHT. THAT MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH AND IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON THE RAIN CHANCES. DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WAS
NOTED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...WENT A BIT WARMER ON TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS LOOKING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING DESPITE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SWEENEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 72 86 72 88 / 10 40 50 10 20
KBPT 87 73 87 74 88 / 10 40 50 10 20
KAEX 92 71 87 67 91 / 20 50 50 10 20
KLFT 88 74 87 69 92 / 10 40 50 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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