Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KLCH 201738
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
GENERALLY AOA 4K FT AND LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INHERITED PROB GROUPS WERE RETAINED
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VCSH CARRIED INTO FRI
MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...A RAPID WARMUP ONGOING THIS MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. ALL ELSE ON TRACK.  ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  56  73  55 /  20  20  20  20
KBPT  76  60  74  59 /  20  30  30  20
KAEX  69  51  71  51 /  10  20  30  20
KLFT  73  52  73  53 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 201738
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
GENERALLY AOA 4K FT AND LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTH WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. INHERITED PROB GROUPS WERE RETAINED
FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VCSH CARRIED INTO FRI
MORNING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...A RAPID WARMUP ONGOING THIS MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. ALL ELSE ON TRACK.  ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  56  73  55 /  20  20  20  20
KBPT  76  60  74  59 /  20  30  30  20
KAEX  69  51  71  51 /  10  20  30  20
KLFT  73  52  73  53 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 201654
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1054 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...A RAPID WARMUP ONGOING THIS MORNING. HAVE TWEAKED
AFTERNOON HIGHS UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. ALL ELSE ON TRACK.  ZONES/GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  76  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  69  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  73  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 201054
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  72  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  67  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  70  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 201054
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY ONGOING AND EXPECTED THRU 14Z AT
AEX/BPT/LCH/LFT WHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED CALM...DESPITE THE
INCREASING SCT/BKN LAYER ~6000FT. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM
THE SSE 10-13 KTS BY 15Z INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY GENERATE CHANCE OF SHRA OVER SE TX/C LA. FOR
THIS...PLACED PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA & MVFR CEILINGS AT BPT/LCH/AEX
FROM 06-12Z FRI.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  72  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  67  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  70  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 201008
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  72  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  67  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  70  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 201008
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
408 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SFC OBS SHOW A
CONSIDERABLE WARMING TREND HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO EVEN LOWER 50S AT
KBPT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS...
WHILE A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED FARTHER WEST.
PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID /UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG NOTED MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE
AREA AND COASTAL SERN TX. REGIONAL 88DS REMAIN PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE PUSHING ENEWD TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BEGIN DRAWING GULF MOISTURE ALOFT UP AND OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LITTLE BIT OF LIFT/WEAKENING CAP
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER
THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CONTINUED
LOW-LEVEL WARMING ON THE HEELS OF CONTINUED SRLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR MAXES TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN SPREADING SLIGHTLY EWD
AS THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR NORTH...WHILE MINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S EXTREME NERN ZONES TO THE LOWER 60S
COAST/JEFFERSON COUNTY. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE
GOING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SVR WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE MORE OF A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY/GOOD
CAPES/RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SPC NOW HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. LONE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO
BE THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
SUNDAY... WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  56  73  55  74 /  20  20  20  20  70
KBPT  72  60  74  59  73 /  20  30  30  20  70
KAEX  67  51  71  51  72 /  10  20  30  20  70
KLFT  70  52  73  53  73 /  10  20  20  10  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KLCH 200542
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
20/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF FCST. LATEST STLT IMAGES
SHOW SKC TO FEW/SCT STRATOCU ACRS THE AREA. EXPECT SCT 4-5 KFT
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BKN THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN
12-14Z. VFR STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CIGS REMAINING ABV 3500 FT. A FEW -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT BPT AFTER
00Z WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FM THE WEST. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

K. KUYPER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  68  54  70 /  10  10  20  30
KBPT  52  70  60  71 /  10  20  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68 /  10  10  20  30
KLFT  45  69  52  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 200359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  55  71  51 /  10  10  20  20  20
KBPT  52  70  60  71  58 /  10  20  30  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68  49 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  45  69  52  71  50 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 200359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  55  71  51 /  10  10  20  20  20
KBPT  52  70  60  71  58 /  10  20  30  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68  49 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  45  69  52  71  50 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 200359
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15
DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT WE ARE LOOKING
MORNING LOWS HOLDING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. CURRENT ZONES ARE
FINE.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARM-UP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  55  71  51 /  10  10  20  20  20
KBPT  52  70  60  71  58 /  10  20  30  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68  49 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  45  69  52  71  50 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 192331
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARMUP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  68  54  70 /  10  10  20  30
KBPT  52  70  60  71 /  10  20  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68 /  10  10  20  30
KLFT  45  69  52  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...23
AVIATION...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 192331
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRES NOW EAST OF THE AREA...WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE/CLOUDS BACK ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ACRS THE AREA...WITH CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN SCT/BKN BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT...HENCE VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SELY WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KT THIS EVENING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING TO 8-12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARMUP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  68  54  70 /  10  10  20  30
KBPT  52  70  60  71 /  10  20  30  30
KAEX  42  67  50  68 /  10  10  20  30
KLFT  45  69  52  71 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...23
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 192118
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
318 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DEPICTING STRATOCU AT INVERSION LEVEL OF
NEAR 5K FT OVERSPREADING THE AREA ON A RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT OF
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM.
WARMUP TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ON SATURDAY.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW ADVANCED EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW NOW REESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCOMING
WARMTH AND MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT MAIN RAINS WILL BE ARRIVING SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROGGED SIMILARLY BY MODELS...AND
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. WINDS PROFILES VERY
SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPES. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN A DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

RAINS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME
CARRYING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY PER THE SUPERBLEND.
DRY FRONT THEN SLIPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
A SECONDARY AND REINFORCING FRONT COMING THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SHARPLY COOLER AIR FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  49  70  58  72  58 /  10  10  20  20  20
KBPT  52  71  61  71  63 /  10  20  30  30  30
KAEX  43  66  52  68  53 /  10  10  20  30  20
KLFT  46  69  54  71  56 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE






000
FXUS64 KLCH 191811
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1211 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP AS SFC HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WITH MSTR
RETURN EVIDENT IN THE FORM OF CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING OVER SE TX.
VFR TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY KBPT AND KLCH. CLOUDS ARE FCST TO PERSIST AND
LOWER TONIGHT PER FCST TIME HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS AT ALL BUT THE
ACADIANA TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WITHIN VFR.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...HEADING FOR A RATHER MILD AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY CHILLY
START. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALL ELSE LOOKS RIGHT ON.
GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY UPDATED.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING. INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA
THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. WINDS BECOMING SE BY 15Z...AND
S 8-10 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  49  70  58 /   0  10  10  20
KBPT  64  52  71  61 /  10  10  20  30
KAEX  59  43  66  52 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  60  46  69  54 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 191811
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1211 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP AS SFC HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WITH MSTR
RETURN EVIDENT IN THE FORM OF CU/STRATOCU DEVELOPING OVER SE TX.
VFR TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY KBPT AND KLCH. CLOUDS ARE FCST TO PERSIST AND
LOWER TONIGHT PER FCST TIME HEIGHTS/SOUNDINGS AT ALL BUT THE
ACADIANA TERMINALS...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WITHIN VFR.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...HEADING FOR A RATHER MILD AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY CHILLY
START. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALL ELSE LOOKS RIGHT ON.
GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY UPDATED.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING. INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA
THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. WINDS BECOMING SE BY 15Z...AND
S 8-10 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  49  70  58 /   0  10  10  20
KBPT  64  52  71  61 /  10  10  20  30
KAEX  59  43  66  52 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  60  46  69  54 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 191638
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1038 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...HEADING FOR A RATHER MILD AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY CHILLY
START. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALL ELSE LOOKS RIGHT ON.
GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY UPDATED.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING. INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA
THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. WINDS BECOMING SE BY 15Z...AND
S 8-10 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  49  70  58  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  64  52  71  61  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  59  43  66  52  68 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  60  46  69  54  71 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 191638
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1038 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...HEADING FOR A RATHER MILD AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY CHILLY
START. BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALL ELSE LOOKS RIGHT ON.
GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY UPDATED.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING. INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA
THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. WINDS BECOMING SE BY 15Z...AND
S 8-10 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  49  70  58  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  64  52  71  61  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  59  43  66  52  68 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  60  46  69  54  71 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 191135
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING. INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA
THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. WINDS BECOMING SE BY 15Z...AND
S 8-10 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  58  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  62  52  71  61  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  60  43  66  52  68 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  60  46  69  54  71 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 191135
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
535 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING. INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA
THRU 13Z...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. WINDS BECOMING SE BY 15Z...AND
S 8-10 KTS BY 18Z...DIMINISHING BY 00Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  58  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  62  52  71  61  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  60  43  66  52  68 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  60  46  69  54  71 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 191003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  58  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  62  52  71  61  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  60  43  66  52  68 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  60  46  69  54  71 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KLCH 191003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  58  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  62  52  71  61  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  60  43  66  52  68 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  60  46  69  54  71 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 191003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  58  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  62  52  71  61  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  60  43  66  52  68 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  60  46  69  54  71 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KLCH 191003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SERN CONUS RIDGING WSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CALM TO
LIGHT SRLY WINDS PREVAILING. SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO
THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...WITH LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING
OVER THE ERN CONUS...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CORROBORATING WITH
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT OVERHEAD. REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE AS EXPECTED.

THE THEME FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODIFICATION AS TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY AS SRLY FLOW PUSHES GULF AIR
NWD. WARMING LOOKS MUCH MORE DRAMATIC TONIGHT AS MINS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 15-20 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING.

SMALL POPS RETURN TO THE WRN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CONTINUING INCREASING MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSES ALOFT. THESE RAIN CHANCES SPREAD
EWD DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD ALONG WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
ANOTHER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO PASS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS/ZONES. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN
EARNEST WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE DESERT SW BEFORE GOING
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COPIOUS MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN...WHILE
INCREASING LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AND LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
FOR NOW SPC INCLUDING MAINLY THE TX ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS FINE GIVEN CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT ANY SEVERE MENTION FOR
NOW SINCE WE ARE TALKING DAY FOUR. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH AVERAGE QPFS FOR THIS EVENT CURRENTLY RUNNING A SOLID
1-2 INCHES ATTM.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION MOVE NE OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...DRYING ALOFT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL SHUT OFF THE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW AM CARRYING
SMALL POPS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
WHAT LOOKS FOR NOW TO BE A DRY SFC COLD FRONT. AT THAT POINT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SO NO POPS ARE
CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AIRMASS OF
PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WITH MORNING LOWS RUNNING MORE IN THE LOWER 40S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN SRLY TODAY WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO OUR EAST. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...WITH CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SCA WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NWRN GULF. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO A WRLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON SUNDAY...
WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND EXPECTED BY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  58  72 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  62  52  71  61  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  60  43  66  52  68 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  60  46  69  54  71 /   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 190659
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE JEFFERSON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES PLUS CAMERON PARISH AS SFC OBS AND LOCAL REPORTS INDICATE
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO AT OR JUST BELOW THE 32F MARK.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SLY
WINDS 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENTLY WE ARE REMAINING IN THE COOL POOL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW CAN BE SEEN FROM HOUSTON TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO NE TX
WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S. COOLER TEMPS WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST
DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH FREEZING TEMP EXPECTED FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. CURRENT ZONES ARE GOOD HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY
UPDATES ATTM.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRES CNTRD NEARLY OVHD WITH WINDS NR CALM AREAWIDE.
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS TRANSITING EAST ALOFT...SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING SELY 5-10 MPH DURING THE
DAY. A FEW STRATOCU WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS
DURING THE AFTN MAINLY AT BPT/LCH...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE 20S.

ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH
THE CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HEADING THIS WAY...AND TIME HEIGHTS KEEP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VOID OF ANY DECENT MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS...AS THEY SEEM TOO LOW AS
WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO THE EURO 90P LOW
TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. THIS GIVES THE
LOWEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HARD FREEZE CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET TONIGHT SO NO HARD FREEZE WARNING. WILL ISSUE ONE MORE
FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL ALSO PLACE PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.

ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND TO MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. GULF MOISTURE GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AS PWAT EXCEEDS 1.80 INCHES (BETWEEN THE 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORM) WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. GOOD SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI`S
AROUND (-3). THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED INTO AND HOW MUCH
OF A SURFACE BASE THEY CAN TAKE ON WITH A MODIFIED GULF MARINE AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR...WILL MOVE ACROSS NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS
ARE DECREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. STILL SOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS...SO
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HEADLINE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE OFF THE GULF RETURNING. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS...AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  48  69  56  71 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  64  51  70  59  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  59  41  65  49  67 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  59  46  68  52  71 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 190659
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE JEFFERSON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES PLUS CAMERON PARISH AS SFC OBS AND LOCAL REPORTS INDICATE
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO AT OR JUST BELOW THE 32F MARK.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SLY
WINDS 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENTLY WE ARE REMAINING IN THE COOL POOL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW CAN BE SEEN FROM HOUSTON TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO NE TX
WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S. COOLER TEMPS WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST
DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH FREEZING TEMP EXPECTED FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. CURRENT ZONES ARE GOOD HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY
UPDATES ATTM.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRES CNTRD NEARLY OVHD WITH WINDS NR CALM AREAWIDE.
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS TRANSITING EAST ALOFT...SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING SELY 5-10 MPH DURING THE
DAY. A FEW STRATOCU WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS
DURING THE AFTN MAINLY AT BPT/LCH...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE 20S.

ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH
THE CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HEADING THIS WAY...AND TIME HEIGHTS KEEP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VOID OF ANY DECENT MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS...AS THEY SEEM TOO LOW AS
WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO THE EURO 90P LOW
TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. THIS GIVES THE
LOWEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HARD FREEZE CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET TONIGHT SO NO HARD FREEZE WARNING. WILL ISSUE ONE MORE
FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL ALSO PLACE PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.

ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND TO MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. GULF MOISTURE GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AS PWAT EXCEEDS 1.80 INCHES (BETWEEN THE 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORM) WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. GOOD SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI`S
AROUND (-3). THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED INTO AND HOW MUCH
OF A SURFACE BASE THEY CAN TAKE ON WITH A MODIFIED GULF MARINE AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR...WILL MOVE ACROSS NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS
ARE DECREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. STILL SOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS...SO
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HEADLINE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE OFF THE GULF RETURNING. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS...AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  48  69  56  71 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  64  51  70  59  71 /  10  10  20  30  30
KAEX  59  41  65  49  67 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  59  46  68  52  71 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 190535
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SLY
WINDS 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENTLY WE ARE REMAINING IN THE COOL POOL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW CAN BE SEEN FROM HOUSTON TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO NE TX
WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S. COOLER TEMPS WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST
DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH FREEZING TEMP EXPECTED FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. CURRENT ZONES ARE GOOD HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY
UPDATES ATTM.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRES CNTRD NEARLY OVHD WITH WINDS NR CALM AREAWIDE.
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS TRANSITING EAST ALOFT...SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING SELY 5-10 MPH DURING THE
DAY. A FEW STRATOCU WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS
DURING THE AFTN MAINLY AT BPT/LCH...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE 20S.

ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH
THE CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HEADING THIS WAY...AND TIME HEIGHTS KEEP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VOID OF ANY DECENT MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS...AS THEY SEEM TOO LOW AS
WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO THE EURO 90P LOW
TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. THIS GIVES THE
LOWEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HARD FREEZE CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET TONIGHT SO NO HARD FREEZE WARNING. WILL ISSUE ONE MORE
FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL ALSO PLACE PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.

ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND TO MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. GULF MOISTURE GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AS PWAT EXCEEDS 1.80 INCHES (BETWEEN THE 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORM) WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. GOOD SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI`S
AROUND (-3). THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED INTO AND HOW MUCH
OF A SURFACE BASE THEY CAN TAKE ON WITH A MODIFIED GULF MARINE AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR...WILL MOVE ACROSS NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS
ARE DECREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. STILL SOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS...SO
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HEADLINE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE OFF THE GULF RETURNING. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS...AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  31  60  45  67 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  35  64  51  70 /   0  10  10  20
KAEX  27  59  41  65 /   0   0  10  10
KLFT  30  59  45  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-JEFFERSON
     DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST.
     MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR HARDIN-NORTHERN
     JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
     TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 190535
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH SLY
WINDS 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING DURING THE
EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CURRENTLY WE ARE REMAINING IN THE COOL POOL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW CAN BE SEEN FROM HOUSTON TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO NE TX
WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S. COOLER TEMPS WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST
DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH FREEZING TEMP EXPECTED FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. CURRENT ZONES ARE GOOD HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY
UPDATES ATTM.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRES CNTRD NEARLY OVHD WITH WINDS NR CALM AREAWIDE.
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS TRANSITING EAST ALOFT...SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING SELY 5-10 MPH DURING THE
DAY. A FEW STRATOCU WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS
DURING THE AFTN MAINLY AT BPT/LCH...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE 20S.

ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH
THE CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HEADING THIS WAY...AND TIME HEIGHTS KEEP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VOID OF ANY DECENT MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS...AS THEY SEEM TOO LOW AS
WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO THE EURO 90P LOW
TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. THIS GIVES THE
LOWEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HARD FREEZE CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET TONIGHT SO NO HARD FREEZE WARNING. WILL ISSUE ONE MORE
FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL ALSO PLACE PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.

ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND TO MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. GULF MOISTURE GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AS PWAT EXCEEDS 1.80 INCHES (BETWEEN THE 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORM) WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. GOOD SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI`S
AROUND (-3). THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED INTO AND HOW MUCH
OF A SURFACE BASE THEY CAN TAKE ON WITH A MODIFIED GULF MARINE AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR...WILL MOVE ACROSS NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS
ARE DECREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. STILL SOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS...SO
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HEADLINE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE OFF THE GULF RETURNING. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS...AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  31  60  45  67 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  35  64  51  70 /   0  10  10  20
KAEX  27  59  41  65 /   0   0  10  10
KLFT  30  59  45  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-JEFFERSON
     DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-ST. LANDRY-ST.
     MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR HARDIN-NORTHERN
     JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
     TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 190233
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
833 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY WE ARE REMAINING IN THE COOL POOL THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW CAN BE SEEN FROM HOUSTON TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO NE TX
WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S. COOLER TEMPS WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST
DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH FREEZING TEMP EXPECTED FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. CURRENT ZONES ARE GOOD HAVE NO PLANS FOR ANY
UPDATES ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRES CNTRD NEARLY OVHD WITH WINDS NR CALM AREAWIDE.
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS TRANSITING EAST ALOFT...SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING SELY 5-10 MPH DURING THE
DAY. A FEW STRATOCU WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS
DURING THE AFTN MAINLY AT BPT/LCH...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE 20S.

ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH
THE CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HEADING THIS WAY...AND TIME HEIGHTS KEEP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VOID OF ANY DECENT MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS...AS THEY SEEM TOO LOW AS
WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO THE EURO 90P LOW
TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. THIS GIVES THE
LOWEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HARD FREEZE CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET TONIGHT SO NO HARD FREEZE WARNING. WILL ISSUE ONE MORE
FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL ALSO PLACE PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.

ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND TO MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. GULF MOISTURE GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AS PWAT EXCEEDS 1.80 INCHES (BETWEEN THE 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORM) WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. GOOD SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI`S
AROUND (-3). THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED INTO AND HOW MUCH
OF A SURFACE BASE THEY CAN TAKE ON WITH A MODIFIED GULF MARINE AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR...WILL MOVE ACROSS NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS
ARE DECREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. STILL SOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS...SO
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HEADLINE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE OFF THE GULF RETURNING. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS...AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  33  62  48  69  56 /   0   0  10  10  20
KBPT  36  64  51  70  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
KAEX  28  59  41  65  49 /   0   0  10  10  20
KLFT  30  59  46  68  52 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
     BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 182345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRES CNTRD NEARLY OVHD WITH WINDS NR CALM AREAWIDE.
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS TRANSITING EAST ALOFT...SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING SELY 5-10 MPH DURING THE
DAY. A FEW STRATOCU WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS
DURING THE AFTN MAINLY AT BPT/LCH...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE 20S.

ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH
THE CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HEADING THIS WAY...AND TIME HEIGHTS KEEP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VOID OF ANY DECENT MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS...AS THEY SEEM TOO LOW AS
WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO THE EURO 90P LOW
TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. THIS GIVES THE
LOWEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HARD FREEZE CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET TONIGHT SO NO HARD FREEZE WARNING. WILL ISSUE ONE MORE
FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL ALSO PLACE PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.

ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND TO MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. GULF MOISTURE GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AS PWAT EXCEEDS 1.80 INCHES (BETWEEN THE 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORM) WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. GOOD SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI`S
AROUND (-3). THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED INTO AND HOW MUCH
OF A SURFACE BASE THEY CAN TAKE ON WITH A MODIFIED GULF MARINE AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR...WILL MOVE ACROSS NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS
ARE DECREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. STILL SOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS...SO
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HEADLINE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE OFF THE GULF RETURNING. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS...AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  31  60  45  67 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  36  64  51  70 /   0  10  10  20
KAEX  28  59  41  65 /   0   0  10  10
KLFT  30  59  45  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EVANGELINE-
     IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-
     ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     HARDIN-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
     SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 182345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRES CNTRD NEARLY OVHD WITH WINDS NR CALM AREAWIDE.
OTHER THAN A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS TRANSITING EAST ALOFT...SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH WINDS BECOMING SELY 5-10 MPH DURING THE
DAY. A FEW STRATOCU WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS
DURING THE AFTN MAINLY AT BPT/LCH...BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE 20S.

ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH
THE CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HEADING THIS WAY...AND TIME HEIGHTS KEEP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VOID OF ANY DECENT MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS...AS THEY SEEM TOO LOW AS
WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO THE EURO 90P LOW
TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. THIS GIVES THE
LOWEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HARD FREEZE CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET TONIGHT SO NO HARD FREEZE WARNING. WILL ISSUE ONE MORE
FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL ALSO PLACE PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.

ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND TO MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. GULF MOISTURE GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AS PWAT EXCEEDS 1.80 INCHES (BETWEEN THE 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORM) WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. GOOD SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI`S
AROUND (-3). THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED INTO AND HOW MUCH
OF A SURFACE BASE THEY CAN TAKE ON WITH A MODIFIED GULF MARINE AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR...WILL MOVE ACROSS NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS
ARE DECREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. STILL SOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS...SO
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HEADLINE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE OFF THE GULF RETURNING. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS...AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  31  60  45  67 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  36  64  51  70 /   0  10  10  20
KAEX  28  59  41  65 /   0   0  10  10
KLFT  30  59  45  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ACADIA-ALLEN-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EVANGELINE-
     IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-
     ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     HARDIN-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
     SOUTHERN NEWTON-TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 182049
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
249 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE 20S.

ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH
THE CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HEADING THIS WAY...AND TIME HEIGHTS KEEP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VOID OF ANY DECENT MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS...AS THEY SEEM TOO LOW AS
WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO THE EURO 90P LOW
TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. THIS GIVES THE
LOWEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HARD FREEZE CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET TONIGHT SO NO HARD FREEZE WARNING. WILL ISSUE ONE MORE
FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL ALSO PLACE PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.

ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND TO MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. GULF MOISTURE GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AS PWAT EXCEEDS 1.80 INCHES (BETWEEN THE 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORM) WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. GOOD SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI`S
AROUND (-3). THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED INTO AND HOW MUCH
OF A SURFACE BASE THEY CAN TAKE ON WITH A MODIFIED GULF MARINE AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR...WILL MOVE ACROSS NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS
ARE DECREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. STILL SOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS...SO
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HEADLINE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE OFF THE GULF RETURNING. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS...AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  33  62  48  69  56 /   0   0  10  10  20
KBPT  36  64  51  70  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
KAEX  28  59  41  65  49 /   0   0  10  10  20
KLFT  30  59  46  68  52 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
     BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 182049
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
249 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AIR
MASS IS RATHER DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS IN THE 20S.

ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT TERM IS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH
THE CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT SEE ANY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HEADING THIS WAY...AND TIME HEIGHTS KEEP THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VOID OF ANY DECENT MOISTURE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
STILL WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE MOS NUMBERS...AS THEY SEEM TOO LOW AS
WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AGAIN WENT CLOSE TO THE EURO 90P LOW
TEMPERATURE AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS NUMBERS. THIS GIVES THE
LOWEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 14 AND HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDORS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HARD FREEZE CRITERIA DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE MET TONIGHT SO NO HARD FREEZE WARNING. WILL ISSUE ONE MORE
FREEZE WARNING TO COVER THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND
WILL ALSO PLACE PATCHY FROST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR THE DEW POINT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL BEGIN. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE
TEMPERATURES AND BEGIN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY.

ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL CHANCE
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND TO MOVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN UP INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY EVENING. GULF MOISTURE GREATLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AS PWAT EXCEEDS 1.80 INCHES (BETWEEN THE 150 TO 200 PERCENT
OF NORM) WITH MEAN RH OVER 80 PERCENT...AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. GOOD SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO
NOTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LI`S
AROUND (-3). THEREFORE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OR SEVERITY OF THE STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CAN BE TAPPED INTO AND HOW MUCH
OF A SURFACE BASE THEY CAN TAKE ON WITH A MODIFIED GULF MARINE AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH
MAYBE JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY. NEXT COLD
FRONT WITH MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR...WILL MOVE ACROSS NEXT
MONDAY...WITH AGAIN A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO EASE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS
ARE DECREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. STILL SOME
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS...SO
EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN THE HEADLINE FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE OFF THE GULF RETURNING. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS...AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  33  62  48  69  56 /   0   0  10  10  20
KBPT  36  64  51  70  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
KAEX  28  59  41  65  49 /   0   0  10  10  20
KLFT  30  59  46  68  52 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
     BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 181732
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1132 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT NORTHERLY...TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED ABOVE FREEZING AND INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S...SO HAVE REFRESHED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REMOVE FREEZE
WARNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE NIGHT...ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND EXIT THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE MORE
NIGHT OF A LIGHT FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AS CLOUDS...OR LACK OF CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH TONIGHT`S LOWS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
ALOFT...FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE A PERSISTENT DRY
ATMOSPHERE SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST
AGAIN UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND RELAXES THE GRADIENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...CIRRUS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW 28
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING, THEREFORE
THE HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH A
FREEZE WARNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE. THE SHORT WAVE HAS PROVIDED MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED HOLDING TEMPS ABOVE FORECASTED VALUES
AND KEEPING PORTIONS OF THE AREA OUT OF HARD FREEZE CRITERIA IN
THE NORTH HALF AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING ALONE FOR
NOW AS CRITERIA MAY STILL BE MET AT A FEW LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. CIRRUS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH HOWEVER WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE AND REMAIN LOW INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES
TO THE EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SE INTO WED MORNING. AS THE
RIDGE PASSES OVER HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS ONE MORE CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO GET UNDERWAY EARLY WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
FRI AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES A SHOWER OR TWO MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH CHANCES HIGHER ON FRI. DURING
THE WEEKEND A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LIFT, MOISTURE, AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE,
HOWEVER CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FEW ISOLD STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN A SVR STORM BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS EXIT EAST EARLY SUNDAY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
STILL OCCURRING IN THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING IN THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE OUTER GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE WED MORNING. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AND SAT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  33  61  47  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  51  37  63  50  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  48  29  59  40  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
KLFT  49  31  60  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 181607
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1007 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED ABOVE FREEZING AND INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S...SO HAVE REFRESHED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REMOVE FREEZE
WARNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE NIGHT...ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND EXIT THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE MORE
NIGHT OF A LIGHT FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...AS CLOUDS...OR LACK OF CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH TONIGHT`S LOWS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
ALOFT...FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE A PERSISTENT DRY
ATMOSPHERE SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST
AGAIN UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND RELAXES THE GRADIENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...CIRRUS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW 28
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING, THEREFORE
THE HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH A
FREEZE WARNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE. THE SHORT WAVE HAS PROVIDED MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED HOLDING TEMPS ABOVE FORECASTED VALUES
AND KEEPING PORTIONS OF THE AREA OUT OF HARD FREEZE CRITERIA IN
THE NORTH HALF AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING ALONE FOR
NOW AS CRITERIA MAY STILL BE MET AT A FEW LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. CIRRUS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH HOWEVER WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE AND REMAIN LOW INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES
TO THE EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SE INTO WED MORNING. AS THE
RIDGE PASSES OVER HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS ONE MORE CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO GET UNDERWAY EARLY WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
FRI AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES A SHOWER OR TWO MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH CHANCES HIGHER ON FRI. DURING
THE WEEKEND A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LIFT, MOISTURE, AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE,
HOWEVER CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FEW ISOLD STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN A SVR STORM BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS EXIT EAST EARLY SUNDAY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
STILL OCCURRING IN THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING IN THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE OUTER GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE WED MORNING. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AND SAT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  33  61  47  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  51  37  63  50  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  48  29  59  40  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
KLFT  49  31  60  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
     CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 181235
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
ALOFT...FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE A PERSISTENT DRY
ATMOSPHERE SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST
AGAIN UNTIL THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND RELAXES THE GRADIENT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...CIRRUS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW 28
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING, THEREFORE
THE HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH A
FREEZE WARNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE. THE SHORT WAVE HAS PROVIDED MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED HOLDING TEMPS ABOVE FORECASTED VALUES
AND KEEPING PORTIONS OF THE AREA OUT OF HARD FREEZE CRITERIA IN
THE NORTH HALF AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING ALONE FOR
NOW AS CRITERIA MAY STILL BE MET AT A FEW LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. CIRRUS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH HOWEVER WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE AND REMAIN LOW INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES
TO THE EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SE INTO WED MORNING. AS THE
RIDGE PASSES OVER HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS ONE MORE CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO GET UNDERWAY EARLY WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
FRI AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES A SHOWER OR TWO MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH CHANCES HIGHER ON FRI. DURING
THE WEEKEND A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LIFT, MOISTURE, AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE,
HOWEVER CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FEW ISOLD STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN A SVR STORM BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS EXIT EAST EARLY SUNDAY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
STILL OCCURRING IN THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING IN THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE OUTER GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE WED MORNING. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AND SAT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  33  61  47  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  51  37  63  50  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  48  29  59  40  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
KLFT  49  31  60  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 181225
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...CIRRUS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW 28
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING, THEREFORE
THE HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH A
FREEZE WARNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE. THE SHORT WAVE HAS PROVIDED MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED HOLDING TEMPS ABOVE FORECASTED VALUES
AND KEEPING PORTIONS OF THE AREA OUT OF HARD FREEZE CRITERIA IN
THE NORTH HALF AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING ALONE FOR
NOW AS CRITERIA MAY STILL BE MET AT A FEW LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. CIRRUS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH HOWEVER WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE AND REMAIN LOW INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES
TO THE EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SE INTO WED MORNING. AS THE
RIDGE PASSES OVER HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS ONE MORE CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO GET UNDERWAY EARLY WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
FRI AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES A SHOWER OR TWO MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH CHANCES HIGHER ON FRI. DURING
THE WEEKEND A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LIFT, MOISTURE, AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE,
HOWEVER CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FEW ISOLD STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN A SVR STORM BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS EXIT EAST EARLY SUNDAY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
STILL OCCURRING IN THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING IN THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE OUTER GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE WED MORNING. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AND SAT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  33  61  47  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  51  37  63  50  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  48  29  59  40  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
KLFT  49  31  60  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 181004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE. THE SHORT WAVE HAS PROVIDED MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED HOLDING TEMPS ABOVE FORECASTED VALUES
AND KEEPING PORTIONS OF THE AREA OUT OF HARD FREEZE CRITERIA IN
THE NORTH HALF AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING ALONE FOR
NOW AS CRITERIA MAY STILL BE MET AT A FEW LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. CIRRUS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH HOWEVER WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE AND REMAIN LOW INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES
TO THE EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SE INTO WED MORNING. AS THE
RIDGE PASSES OVER HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS ONE MORE CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO GET UNDERWAY EARLY WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
FRI AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES A SHOWER OR TWO MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH CHANCES HIGHER ON FRI. DURING
THE WEEKEND A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LIFT, MOISTURE, AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE,
HOWEVER CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FEW ISOLD STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN A SVR STORM BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS EXIT EAST EARLY SUNDAY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH.


&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
STILL OCCURRING IN THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING IN THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE OUTER GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE WED MORNING. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AND SAT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  33  61  47  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  51  37  63  50  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  48  29  59  40  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
KLFT  49  31  60  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     EVANGELINE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 181004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE. THE SHORT WAVE HAS PROVIDED MORE CLOUD
COVER THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED HOLDING TEMPS ABOVE FORECASTED VALUES
AND KEEPING PORTIONS OF THE AREA OUT OF HARD FREEZE CRITERIA IN
THE NORTH HALF AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING ALONE FOR
NOW AS CRITERIA MAY STILL BE MET AT A FEW LOCATIONS BY SUNRISE. CIRRUS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH HOWEVER WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
SURFACE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL PASS OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECREASE AND REMAIN LOW INTO TONIGHT, HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES
TO THE EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER SE INTO WED MORNING. AS THE
RIDGE PASSES OVER HEAD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS ONE MORE CHILLY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO GET UNDERWAY EARLY WED. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
FRI AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS. AS MOISTURE INCREASES A SHOWER OR TWO MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH CHANCES HIGHER ON FRI. DURING
THE WEEKEND A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES LIFT, MOISTURE, AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE,
HOWEVER CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FEW ISOLD STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN A SVR STORM BEFORE THE
BEST DYNAMICS EXIT EAST EARLY SUNDAY. LOW END RAIN CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH.


&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
STILL OCCURRING IN THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS DECREASING AS THE RIDGE PASSES.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING IN THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
THE OUTER GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE WED MORNING. AS THE RIDGE
MOVES FARTHER EAST AND LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRI AND SAT WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  33  61  47  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  51  37  63  50  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  48  29  59  40  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
KLFT  49  31  60  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     EVANGELINE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 180537
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1137 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UP. VFR FLIGHT RULES ALL TAF LCTNS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

UPDATE...WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WV IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME THIN CIRRUS COURTESY OF THE POLAR JET HEADING OVER
THE AREA LATER TNITE BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO AFFECT TEMPS.
DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS PROGS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER SOME COLD ADVECTION AND GOOD HEIGHT
FALLS WILL STILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING A FIRST FREEZE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO ONGOING WARNINGS WARRANTED. WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE WIND ADVISORY WORDING.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

AVIATION...
CLR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VSBY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF A BIT INTO THE EVE HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE MAINLY CLEARED OUT AS A DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS.
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING
WILL LESSEN MIXING AND THEREFORE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A VERY COLD AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 20S AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING WILL BE
THE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE...BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO STAY UP IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...AND THEREFORE...NOT
OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT "BOTTOM" OUT. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
FRIGID. GFS AND NAM MOS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ON THE COLD SIDE
LATELY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE EURO MEAN TEMPS AT THE 50 AND 90
PERCENTILE VALUES...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING MID 20S...LOCAL HARD FREEZE...FOR NORTH OF
I-10 CORRIDOR...AND UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...I-10 CORRIDOR...SOUTH
TO THE COAST. AREAS IN THE HARD FREEZE WARNING...CAN EXPECTED
FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS...WITH
HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS...AND AREAS IN FREEZE
WARNING CAN EXPECT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY...AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...HOWEVER
STILL RATHER ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ABOUT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE COULD BE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
BRING ABOUT SOME RATHER HEFTY STORMS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
A LARGE AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES...ALONG WITH A GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. NO
LONGER SEEING ANY WIND GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE COAST OUT TO 60 NM
WILL SUFFICE. WINDS OVER THE LAKES AND BAYS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES...EXCEPT FOR EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE BAYS. TIDES ARE ALSO RECOVERING AND NOT EXPECTING
THE ACTUAL TIDE LEVEL TO BE BELOW (-1) MLLW...AND THEREFORE...LOW
WATER ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  28  50  32  61  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  27  50  36  63  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  26  47  28  58  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  26  48  29  59  45 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...EVANGELINE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN
     NEWTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 180307
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
907 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WV IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME THIN CIRRUS COURTESY OF THE POLAR JET HEADING OVER
THE AREA LATER TNITE BUT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO AFFECT TEMPS.
DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS PROGS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL REMAIN HOWEVER SOME COLD ADVECTION AND GOOD HEIGHT
FALLS WILL STILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING A FIRST FREEZE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. NO CHANGES TO ONGOING WARNINGS WARRANTED. WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE WIND ADVISORY WORDING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

AVIATION...
CLR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VSBY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF A BIT INTO THE EVE HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE MAINLY CLEARED OUT AS A DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS.
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING
WILL LESSEN MIXING AND THEREFORE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A VERY COLD AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 20S AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING WILL BE
THE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE...BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO STAY UP IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...AND THEREFORE...NOT
OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT "BOTTOM" OUT. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
FRIGID. GFS AND NAM MOS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ON THE COLD SIDE
LATELY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE EURO MEAN TEMPS AT THE 50 AND 90
PERCENTILE VALUES...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING MID 20S...LOCAL HARD FREEZE...FOR NORTH OF
I-10 CORRIDOR...AND UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...I-10 CORRIDOR...SOUTH
TO THE COAST. AREAS IN THE HARD FREEZE WARNING...CAN EXPECTED
FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS...WITH
HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS...AND AREAS IN FREEZE
WARNING CAN EXPECT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY...AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...HOWEVER
STILL RATHER ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ABOUT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE COULD BE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
BRING ABOUT SOME RATHER HEFTY STORMS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
A LARGE AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES...ALONG WITH A GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. NO
LONGER SEEING ANY WIND GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE COAST OUT TO 60 NM
WILL SUFFICE. WINDS OVER THE LAKES AND BAYS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES...EXCEPT FOR EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE BAYS. TIDES ARE ALSO RECOVERING AND NOT EXPECTING
THE ACTUAL TIDE LEVEL TO BE BELOW (-1) MLLW...AND THEREFORE...LOW
WATER ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  28  50  32  61  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  27  50  36  63  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  26  47  28  58  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  26  48  29  59  45 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...EVANGELINE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN
     NEWTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 172318
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
518 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES AND UNLIMITED VSBY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF A BIT INTO THE EVE HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE MAINLY CLEARED OUT AS A DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS.
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THEREFORE...A
WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING
WILL LESSEN MIXING AND THEREFORE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A VERY COLD AIR MASS INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 20S AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING WILL BE
THE WINDS. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL DECREASE...BUT STILL EXPECTED
TO STAY UP IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE...AND THEREFORE...NOT
OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT "BOTTOM" OUT. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
FRIGID. GFS AND NAM MOS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ON THE COLD SIDE
LATELY...SO WENT CLOSER TO THE EURO MEAN TEMPS AT THE 50 AND 90
PERCENTILE VALUES...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLEND NUMBERS.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING MID 20S...LOCAL HARD FREEZE...FOR NORTH OF
I-10 CORRIDOR...AND UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...I-10 CORRIDOR...SOUTH
TO THE COAST. AREAS IN THE HARD FREEZE WARNING...CAN EXPECTED
FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 6 TO 10 HOURS...WITH
HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS...AND AREAS IN FREEZE
WARNING CAN EXPECT BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY...AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...HOWEVER
STILL RATHER ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY RETURNING. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ABOUT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE COULD BE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
BRING ABOUT SOME RATHER HEFTY STORMS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
A LARGE AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES...ALONG WITH A GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. NO
LONGER SEEING ANY WIND GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE...SO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE COAST OUT TO 60 NM
WILL SUFFICE. WINDS OVER THE LAKES AND BAYS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES...EXCEPT FOR EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE BAYS. TIDES ARE ALSO RECOVERING AND NOT EXPECTING
THE ACTUAL TIDE LEVEL TO BE BELOW (-1) MLLW...AND THEREFORE...LOW
WATER ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  29  49  32  61  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
KBPT  29  51  36  63  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
KAEX  25  47  28  58  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  28  48  29  59  45 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     EVANGELINE...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...
     ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...TYLER.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN
     JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities