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000
FXUS64 KLCH 221155
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
555 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...WHILE A FRONTAL WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM OFF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST, OVERRUNNING LOW STRATUS AND SOME SEA FOG HAS MOVED
INTO THE LCH AIRPORT WITH MODERATE SE WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
LFT AND ARA ARE MORE INFLUENCED BY LIGHT NE WINDS UNDERCUTTING THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

FURTHER NORTH, AEX HAS PATCHY LIFR WHERE A COLD POOL OF MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
AROUND BPT HAS PRODUCED IFR CIGS IN OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND
WITH IMPROVEMENT ON VIS BUT IFR CIGS LINGERING UNTIL NOON AT LCH
AND ARA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...EARLIER IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOR LFT AND AEX. BPT SHOULD SEE MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR CONITIONS
IN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE AT THE SOUTH LA AIRPORTS. BPT AND AEX
SHOULD SEE AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY STARTS OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AND
NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN SE TX OR SW LA. THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SOME STRONG ONES...WILL BE IN ACADIANA OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

A COOL DOWN COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S
ON WEDNESDAY CHRISTMAS EVE...AND THEN LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CHRISTMAS DAY
SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
ON SATURDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  58  65  43  54 /  20  20  70  40  10
KBPT  70  58  63  43  53 /  20  20  60  20  10
KAEX  71  55  62  41  52 /  20  20  70  40  10
KLFT  72  60  67  46  54 /  20  30  80  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221155
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
555 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...WHILE A FRONTAL WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM OFF THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST, OVERRUNNING LOW STRATUS AND SOME SEA FOG HAS MOVED
INTO THE LCH AIRPORT WITH MODERATE SE WINDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
LFT AND ARA ARE MORE INFLUENCED BY LIGHT NE WINDS UNDERCUTTING THE
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IFR CONDITIONS.

FURTHER NORTH, AEX HAS PATCHY LIFR WHERE A COLD POOL OF MOISTURE
HAS BEEN TRAPPED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
AROUND BPT HAS PRODUCED IFR CIGS IN OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INLAND
WITH IMPROVEMENT ON VIS BUT IFR CIGS LINGERING UNTIL NOON AT LCH
AND ARA WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...EARLIER IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING TO MVFR FOR LFT AND AEX. BPT SHOULD SEE MVFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VLIFR CONITIONS
IN THE BROAD FRONTAL ZONE AT THE SOUTH LA AIRPORTS. BPT AND AEX
SHOULD SEE AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY STARTS OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AND
NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN SE TX OR SW LA. THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SOME STRONG ONES...WILL BE IN ACADIANA OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

A COOL DOWN COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S
ON WEDNESDAY CHRISTMAS EVE...AND THEN LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CHRISTMAS DAY
SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
ON SATURDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  58  65  43  54 /  20  20  70  40  10
KBPT  70  58  63  43  53 /  20  20  60  20  10
KAEX  71  55  62  41  52 /  20  20  70  40  10
KLFT  72  60  67  46  54 /  20  30  80  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 220948
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
348 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY STARTS OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AND
NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN SE TX OR SW LA. THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SOME STRONG ONES...WILL BE IN ACADIANA OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

A COOL DOWN COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S
ON WEDNESDAY CHRISTMAS EVE...AND THEN LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CHRISTMAS DAY
SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
ON SATURDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  58  65  43  54 /  20  20  70  40  10
KBPT  70  58  63  43  53 /  20  20  60  20  10
KAEX  71  55  62  41  52 /  20  20  70  40  10
KLFT  72  60  67  46  54 /  20  30  80  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220948
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
348 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY STARTS OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT THERE COULD
ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AND
NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN SE TX OR SW LA. THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SOME STRONG ONES...WILL BE IN ACADIANA OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

A COOL DOWN COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S
ON WEDNESDAY CHRISTMAS EVE...AND THEN LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CHRISTMAS DAY
SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THANKS TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
ON SATURDAY...SO I WOULD EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  58  65  43  54 /  20  20  70  40  10
KBPT  70  58  63  43  53 /  20  20  60  20  10
KAEX  71  55  62  41  52 /  20  20  70  40  10
KLFT  72  60  67  46  54 /  20  30  80  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 220255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
855 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST UPPER AIR OBSERVATION FROM KLCH SHOWS A SHALLOW COOL LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THE RESULT IS A DECENT INVERSION WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...LOW
STRATUS LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR STEADY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND MAY INCREASE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNRISE.
OVERALL THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FOR AEX/LFT/ARA...SOME CLEARING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BPT/LCH REMAINED IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY LOWERING
AREAWIDE AFTER 06Z...EXPECTING INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS
TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VSBY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS A S TO
SSW WINDS PICKS UP 14-16 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS...BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY WITH A MVFR CEILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN CONUS CONTINUING TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE CNTL/NERN GULF WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING OVER THE
SERN MARINE ZONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTL CONUS WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM SET TO DROP
THROUGH IT. CLOSER TO HOME SKIES HAVE REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALL DAY ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONSHORE FLOW
COMMENCING...AND A SUFFICIENT TEMP INVERSION. LIKELY THAT SOME
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS BUT FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED THE GRIDS/ZONES AT
JUST PATCHY FOG. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE FOG WILL HAVE BURNED
OFF BUT SMALL POPS GET INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST AS INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF/DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING
SRLY FLOW WITH MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILARLY HIGHER.

POPS START CREEPING UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROF IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROF WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE ERN 1/4 OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER
INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED. LINGERING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. A GOOD COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY...AND MINS
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
EWD...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SRLY INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASING TREND
PREVIOUSLY NOTED FOR TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS SIGNIFICANT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS AT MOST NOW.
HOWEVER A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO A SRLY DIRECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AND CROSSES THE CNTL/NERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  71  59  65  42 /  10  20  40  60  30
KBPT  53  72  59  63  42 /  10  20  30  50  20
KAEX  48  69  56  62  40 /  10  20  40  60  40
KLFT  52  71  61  67  45 /  10  20  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
855 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST UPPER AIR OBSERVATION FROM KLCH SHOWS A SHALLOW COOL LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THE RESULT IS A DECENT INVERSION WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...LOW
STRATUS LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR STEADY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND MAY INCREASE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNRISE.
OVERALL THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FOR AEX/LFT/ARA...SOME CLEARING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BPT/LCH REMAINED IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY LOWERING
AREAWIDE AFTER 06Z...EXPECTING INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS
TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VSBY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS A S TO
SSW WINDS PICKS UP 14-16 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS...BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY WITH A MVFR CEILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN CONUS CONTINUING TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE CNTL/NERN GULF WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING OVER THE
SERN MARINE ZONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTL CONUS WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM SET TO DROP
THROUGH IT. CLOSER TO HOME SKIES HAVE REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALL DAY ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONSHORE FLOW
COMMENCING...AND A SUFFICIENT TEMP INVERSION. LIKELY THAT SOME
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS BUT FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED THE GRIDS/ZONES AT
JUST PATCHY FOG. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE FOG WILL HAVE BURNED
OFF BUT SMALL POPS GET INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST AS INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF/DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING
SRLY FLOW WITH MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILARLY HIGHER.

POPS START CREEPING UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROF IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROF WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE ERN 1/4 OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER
INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED. LINGERING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. A GOOD COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY...AND MINS
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
EWD...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SRLY INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASING TREND
PREVIOUSLY NOTED FOR TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS SIGNIFICANT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS AT MOST NOW.
HOWEVER A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO A SRLY DIRECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AND CROSSES THE CNTL/NERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  71  59  65  42 /  10  20  40  60  30
KBPT  53  72  59  63  42 /  10  20  30  50  20
KAEX  48  69  56  62  40 /  10  20  40  60  40
KLFT  52  71  61  67  45 /  10  20  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 212329
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR AEX/LFT/ARA...SOME CLEARING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BPT/LCH REMAINED IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY LOWERING
AREAWIDE AFTER 06Z...EXPECTING INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS
TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VSBY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS A S TO
SSW WINDS PICKS UP 14-16 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS...BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY WITH A MVFR CEILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN CONUS CONTINUING TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE CNTL/NERN GULF WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING OVER THE
SERN MARINE ZONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTL CONUS WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM SET TO DROP
THROUGH IT. CLOSER TO HOME SKIES HAVE REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALL DAY ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONSHORE FLOW
COMMENCING...AND A SUFFICIENT TEMP INVERSION. LIKELY THAT SOME
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS BUT FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED THE GRIDS/ZONES AT
JUST PATCHY FOG. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE FOG WILL HAVE BURNED
OFF BUT SMALL POPS GET INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST AS INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF/DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING
SRLY FLOW WITH MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILARLY HIGHER.

POPS START CREEPING UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROF IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROF WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE ERN 1/4 OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER
INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED. LINGERING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. A GOOD COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY...AND MINS
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
EWD...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SRLY INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASING TREND
PREVIOUSLY NOTED FOR TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS SIGNIFICANT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS AT MOST NOW.
HOWEVER A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO A SRLY DIRECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AND CROSSES THE CNTL/NERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  59  65  42 /  10  20  40  60  30
KBPT  51  72  59  63  42 /  10  20  30  50  20
KAEX  47  69  56  62  40 /   0  20  40  60  40
KLFT  52  71  61  67  45 /  10  20  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 212140
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN CONUS CONTINUING TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE CNTL/NERN GULF WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING OVER THE
SERN MARINE ZONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTL CONUS WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM SET TO DROP
THROUGH IT. CLOSER TO HOME SKIES HAVE REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALL DAY ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONSHORE FLOW
COMMENCING...AND A SUFFICIENT TEMP INVERSION. LIKELY THAT SOME
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS BUT FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED THE GRIDS/ZONES AT
JUST PATCHY FOG. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE FOG WILL HAVE BURNED
OFF BUT SMALL POPS GET INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST AS INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF/DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING
SRLY FLOW WITH MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILARLY HIGHER.

POPS START CREEPING UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROF IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROF WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE ERN 1/4 OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER
INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED. LINGERING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. A GOOD COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY...AND MINS
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
EWD...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SRLY INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASING TREND
PREVIOUSLY NOTED FOR TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS SIGNIFICANT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS AT MOST NOW.
HOWEVER A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO A SRLY DIRECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AND CROSSES THE CNTL/NERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  59  65  42 /  10  20  40  60  30
KBPT  51  72  59  63  42 /  10  20  30  50  20
KAEX  47  69  56  62  40 /   0  20  40  60  40
KLFT  52  71  61  67  45 /  10  20  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KLCH 212140
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN CONUS CONTINUING TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE CNTL/NERN GULF WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING OVER THE
SERN MARINE ZONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTL CONUS WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM SET TO DROP
THROUGH IT. CLOSER TO HOME SKIES HAVE REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALL DAY ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONSHORE FLOW
COMMENCING...AND A SUFFICIENT TEMP INVERSION. LIKELY THAT SOME
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS BUT FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED THE GRIDS/ZONES AT
JUST PATCHY FOG. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE FOG WILL HAVE BURNED
OFF BUT SMALL POPS GET INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST AS INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF/DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING
SRLY FLOW WITH MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILARLY HIGHER.

POPS START CREEPING UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROF IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROF WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE ERN 1/4 OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER
INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED. LINGERING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. A GOOD COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY...AND MINS
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
EWD...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SRLY INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASING TREND
PREVIOUSLY NOTED FOR TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS SIGNIFICANT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS AT MOST NOW.
HOWEVER A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO A SRLY DIRECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AND CROSSES THE CNTL/NERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  59  65  42 /  10  20  40  60  30
KBPT  51  72  59  63  42 /  10  20  30  50  20
KAEX  47  69  56  62  40 /   0  20  40  60  40
KLFT  52  71  61  67  45 /  10  20  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 212140
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN CONUS CONTINUING TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE CNTL/NERN GULF WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING OVER THE
SERN MARINE ZONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTL CONUS WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM SET TO DROP
THROUGH IT. CLOSER TO HOME SKIES HAVE REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALL DAY ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONSHORE FLOW
COMMENCING...AND A SUFFICIENT TEMP INVERSION. LIKELY THAT SOME
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS BUT FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED THE GRIDS/ZONES AT
JUST PATCHY FOG. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE FOG WILL HAVE BURNED
OFF BUT SMALL POPS GET INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST AS INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF/DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING
SRLY FLOW WITH MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILARLY HIGHER.

POPS START CREEPING UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROF IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROF WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE ERN 1/4 OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER
INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED. LINGERING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. A GOOD COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY...AND MINS
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
EWD...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SRLY INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASING TREND
PREVIOUSLY NOTED FOR TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS SIGNIFICANT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS AT MOST NOW.
HOWEVER A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO A SRLY DIRECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AND CROSSES THE CNTL/NERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  59  65  42 /  10  20  40  60  30
KBPT  51  72  59  63  42 /  10  20  30  50  20
KAEX  47  69  56  62  40 /   0  20  40  60  40
KLFT  52  71  61  67  45 /  10  20  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KLCH 212140
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN CONUS CONTINUING TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE CNTL/NERN GULF WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING OVER THE
SERN MARINE ZONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTL CONUS WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM SET TO DROP
THROUGH IT. CLOSER TO HOME SKIES HAVE REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALL DAY ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONSHORE FLOW
COMMENCING...AND A SUFFICIENT TEMP INVERSION. LIKELY THAT SOME
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS BUT FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED THE GRIDS/ZONES AT
JUST PATCHY FOG. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE FOG WILL HAVE BURNED
OFF BUT SMALL POPS GET INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST AS INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF/DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING
SRLY FLOW WITH MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILARLY HIGHER.

POPS START CREEPING UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROF IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROF WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE ERN 1/4 OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER
INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED. LINGERING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. A GOOD COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY...AND MINS
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
EWD...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SRLY INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASING TREND
PREVIOUSLY NOTED FOR TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS SIGNIFICANT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS AT MOST NOW.
HOWEVER A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO A SRLY DIRECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AND CROSSES THE CNTL/NERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  59  65  42 /  10  20  40  60  30
KBPT  51  72  59  63  42 /  10  20  30  50  20
KAEX  47  69  56  62  40 /   0  20  40  60  40
KLFT  52  71  61  67  45 /  10  20  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 211806
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1206 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
21/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE LINGERED THIS MORNING...WITH VSBYS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE AT LCH. SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE BUILDING NW TOWARD AEX AT
THIS HOUR. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AT AEX...WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN. OTHERWISE...SRN TAF SITES WILL
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z WITH MVFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. LT ELY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO ERODE FROM NE-SW
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...BUT ALSO SEEING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FLOWING NWD FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CROSSING DEEP SRN TX. HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT..AND THE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS WELL. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATUS OVER THE
TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS NOW
ADVANCED WEST OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRATUS
AND BR RESULTING IN IFR AT ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BPT COMING IN WITHIN MVFR. AEX REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG ONGOING.

EXPECTING STRATUS GRADUALLY TO LIFT INTO MVFR MOVING THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR STRATUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS A
NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

JB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  48  69  60 /   0  10  20  40
KBPT  62  51  71  62 /   0  10  20  30
KAEX  61  44  67  58 /   0   0  20  40
KLFT  62  49  70  62 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 211806
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1206 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
21/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG AND STRATUS HAVE LINGERED THIS MORNING...WITH VSBYS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO IMPROVE AT LCH. SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE BUILDING NW TOWARD AEX AT
THIS HOUR. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AT AEX...WITH VFR
PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN. OTHERWISE...SRN TAF SITES WILL
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z WITH MVFR CIGS PERSISTING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN
FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. LT ELY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO ERODE FROM NE-SW
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...BUT ALSO SEEING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FLOWING NWD FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CROSSING DEEP SRN TX. HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT..AND THE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS WELL. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATUS OVER THE
TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS NOW
ADVANCED WEST OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRATUS
AND BR RESULTING IN IFR AT ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BPT COMING IN WITHIN MVFR. AEX REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG ONGOING.

EXPECTING STRATUS GRADUALLY TO LIFT INTO MVFR MOVING THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR STRATUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS A
NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

JB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  48  69  60 /   0  10  20  40
KBPT  62  51  71  62 /   0  10  20  30
KAEX  61  44  67  58 /   0   0  20  40
KLFT  62  49  70  62 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211655
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1055 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO ERODE FROM NE-SW
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...BUT ALSO SEEING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FLOWING NWD FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CROSSING DEEP SRN TX. HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT..AND THE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS WELL. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATUS OVER THE
TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS NOW
ADVANCED WEST OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRATUS
AND BR RESULTING IN IFR AT ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BPT COMING IN WITHIN MVFR. AEX REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG ONGOING.

EXPECTING STRATUS GRADUALLY TO LIFT INTO MVFR MOVING THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR STRATUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS A
NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  61  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  62  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211655
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1055 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO ERODE FROM NE-SW
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...BUT ALSO SEEING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FLOWING NWD FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE CROSSING DEEP SRN TX. HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT..AND THE MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS WELL. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATUS OVER THE
TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS NOW
ADVANCED WEST OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRATUS
AND BR RESULTING IN IFR AT ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BPT COMING IN WITHIN MVFR. AEX REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG ONGOING.

EXPECTING STRATUS GRADUALLY TO LIFT INTO MVFR MOVING THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR STRATUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS A
NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  61  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  62  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 211214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATUS OVER THE
TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS NOW
ADVANCED WEST OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRATUS
AND BR RESULTING IN IFR AT ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BPT COMING IN WITHIN MVFR. AEX REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG ONGOING.

EXPECTING STRATUS GRADUALLY TO LIFT INTO MVFR MOVING THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR STRATUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS A
NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  60  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  63  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 211214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATUS OVER THE
TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS NOW
ADVANCED WEST OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRATUS
AND BR RESULTING IN IFR AT ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BPT COMING IN WITHIN MVFR. AEX REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG ONGOING.

EXPECTING STRATUS GRADUALLY TO LIFT INTO MVFR MOVING THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR STRATUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS A
NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  60  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  63  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 211214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATUS OVER THE
TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS NOW
ADVANCED WEST OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRATUS
AND BR RESULTING IN IFR AT ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BPT COMING IN WITHIN MVFR. AEX REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG ONGOING.

EXPECTING STRATUS GRADUALLY TO LIFT INTO MVFR MOVING THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR STRATUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS A
NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  60  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  63  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 211214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATUS OVER THE
TERMINALS OF LFT AND ARA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS NOW
ADVANCED WEST OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STRATUS
AND BR RESULTING IN IFR AT ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BPT COMING IN WITHIN MVFR. AEX REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WITH JUST SOME LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG ONGOING.

EXPECTING STRATUS GRADUALLY TO LIFT INTO MVFR MOVING THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. VFR THEN ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR STRATUS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AS A
NE-SW ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  60  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  63  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 211011
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  60  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  63  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$
27








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211011
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  60  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  63  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$
27







000
FXUS64 KLCH 211011
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  60  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  63  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$
27








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211011
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
411 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG
HAS BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 50S UNDER THE MORE DENSE OVERCAST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.

STILL LOOKING FOR THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AND PEAK DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND END TUESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERALL
THE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT DID NOT MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TIMING. STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
WELL.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK TO PICK UP
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.

DID HAVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST A FEW DEGREES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY AND SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY HAVE TO
BE LOWERED A LITTLE MORE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. A WARMING TREND
DOES BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR AREAS BEYOND
20 NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING WINDS
WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  49  70  61  70 /  10  10  20  40  60
KBPT  62  51  71  62  70 /   0  10  20  30  50
KAEX  60  44  67  58  69 /   0   0  20  40  60
KLFT  63  50  70  62  72 /  10  10  20  40  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$
27







000
FXUS64 KLCH 210247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
847 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE ON-GOING FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO
AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 12 AND HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
MAINLY CLEARED OUT OF THESE AREAS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT
MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND AIR TEMPERATURES TO REACH DEW POINTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAINING OVER LFT/ARA AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER
ACADIANA. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED WITH
THE DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER SE TX/C AND SW LA. BEST CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER LFT/ARA OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SUN. NNE WINDS ~10-12 KTS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE NE THEN E BY SUN.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOW THE GULF LOW PRESSURE NOW
APPROACHING THE NERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION ATTM ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. AS
STATED EARLIER DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT OVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
THE STRATUS HAS BEEN STEADILY DISSIPATING FROM NE-SW SINCE THIS
MORNING.

STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH HOLDS TO OUR NE...MAINTAINING
A DRY NERLY/ERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DIG OVER THE WRN 1/2
OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND IN TURN ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SRN TX COAST. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN/CNTL
GULF WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE SLIM RAIN CHANCES THEN SPREAD
NWD INTO THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AS ENHANCED
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WORKS WITH LINGERING LIFT BEHIND THE DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A LITTLE CONVECTION.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER INSTABILITY/STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED...BUT NOT PLANNING ANY MENTION ATTM.
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING BEHIND DRY WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. OUR PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING EWD...ALLOWING A
RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...
DROPPED CAUTION HEADLINES FROM THE COASTALS AS INITIALS SPEEDS
SHOULD BE RUNNING 15 KNOTS AT MOST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
INTO SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  44  64  50  70  59 /  10  10  10  10  30
KBPT  46  65  52  71  60 /  10  10  10  10  20
KAEX  39  61  45  69  57 /   0  10  10  10  40
KLFT  44  65  51  70  60 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 210247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
847 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE ON-GOING FORECAST WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO
AREAS ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 12 AND HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
MAINLY CLEARED OUT OF THESE AREAS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT
MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND AIR TEMPERATURES TO REACH DEW POINTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAINING OVER LFT/ARA AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER
ACADIANA. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED WITH
THE DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER SE TX/C AND SW LA. BEST CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER LFT/ARA OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SUN. NNE WINDS ~10-12 KTS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE NE THEN E BY SUN.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOW THE GULF LOW PRESSURE NOW
APPROACHING THE NERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION ATTM ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. AS
STATED EARLIER DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT OVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
THE STRATUS HAS BEEN STEADILY DISSIPATING FROM NE-SW SINCE THIS
MORNING.

STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH HOLDS TO OUR NE...MAINTAINING
A DRY NERLY/ERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DIG OVER THE WRN 1/2
OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND IN TURN ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SRN TX COAST. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN/CNTL
GULF WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE SLIM RAIN CHANCES THEN SPREAD
NWD INTO THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AS ENHANCED
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WORKS WITH LINGERING LIFT BEHIND THE DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A LITTLE CONVECTION.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER INSTABILITY/STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED...BUT NOT PLANNING ANY MENTION ATTM.
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING BEHIND DRY WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. OUR PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING EWD...ALLOWING A
RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...
DROPPED CAUTION HEADLINES FROM THE COASTALS AS INITIALS SPEEDS
SHOULD BE RUNNING 15 KNOTS AT MOST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
INTO SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  44  64  50  70  59 /  10  10  10  10  30
KBPT  46  65  52  71  60 /  10  10  10  10  20
KAEX  39  61  45  69  57 /   0  10  10  10  40
KLFT  44  65  51  70  60 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 202326
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
526 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAINING OVER LFT/ARA AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER
ACADIANA. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED WITH
THE DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER SE TX/C AND SW LA. BEST CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER LFT/ARA OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SUN. NNE WINDS ~10-12 KTS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE NE THEN E BY SUN.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOW THE GULF LOW PRESSURE NOW
APPROACHING THE NERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION ATTM ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. AS
STATED EARLIER DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT OVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
THE STRATUS HAS BEEN STEADILY DISSIPATING FROM NE-SW SINCE THIS
MORNING.

STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH HOLDS TO OUR NE...MAINTAINING
A DRY NERLY/ERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DIG OVER THE WRN 1/2
OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND IN TURN ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SRN TX COAST. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN/CNTL
GULF WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE SLIM RAIN CHANCES THEN SPREAD
NWD INTO THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AS ENHANCED
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WORKS WITH LINGERING LIFT BEHIND THE DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A LITTLE CONVECTION.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER INSTABILITY/STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED...BUT NOT PLANNING ANY MENTION ATTM.
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING BEHIND DRY WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. OUR PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING EWD...ALLOWING A
RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...
DROPPED CAUTION HEADLINES FROM THE COASTALS AS INITIALS SPEEDS
SHOULD BE RUNNING 15 KNOTS AT MOST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
INTO SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  44  64  50  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  30
KBPT  45  65  52  71  60 /   0  10  10  10  20
KAEX  39  61  45  69  57 /   0  10  10  10  40
KLFT  45  65  51  70  60 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 202326
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
526 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS REMAINING OVER LFT/ARA AS LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER
ACADIANA. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED WITH
THE DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER SE TX/C AND SW LA. BEST CHANCES FOR LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER LFT/ARA OVERNIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SUN. NNE WINDS ~10-12 KTS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE NE THEN E BY SUN.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOW THE GULF LOW PRESSURE NOW
APPROACHING THE NERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION ATTM ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. AS
STATED EARLIER DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT OVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
THE STRATUS HAS BEEN STEADILY DISSIPATING FROM NE-SW SINCE THIS
MORNING.

STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH HOLDS TO OUR NE...MAINTAINING
A DRY NERLY/ERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DIG OVER THE WRN 1/2
OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND IN TURN ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SRN TX COAST. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN/CNTL
GULF WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE SLIM RAIN CHANCES THEN SPREAD
NWD INTO THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AS ENHANCED
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WORKS WITH LINGERING LIFT BEHIND THE DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A LITTLE CONVECTION.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER INSTABILITY/STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED...BUT NOT PLANNING ANY MENTION ATTM.
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING BEHIND DRY WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. OUR PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING EWD...ALLOWING A
RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...
DROPPED CAUTION HEADLINES FROM THE COASTALS AS INITIALS SPEEDS
SHOULD BE RUNNING 15 KNOTS AT MOST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
INTO SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  44  64  50  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  30
KBPT  45  65  52  71  60 /   0  10  10  10  20
KAEX  39  61  45  69  57 /   0  10  10  10  40
KLFT  45  65  51  70  60 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 202147
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOW THE GULF LOW PRESSURE NOW
APPROACHING THE NERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION ATTM ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. AS
STATED EARLIER DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT OVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
THE STRATUS HAS BEEN STEADILY DISSIPATING FROM NE-SW SINCE THIS
MORNING.

STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH HOLDS TO OUR NE...MAINTAINING
A DRY NERLY/ERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DIG OVER THE WRN 1/2
OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND IN TURN ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SRN TX COAST. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN/CNTL
GULF WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE SLIM RAIN CHANCES THEN SPREAD
NWD INTO THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AS ENHANCED
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WORKS WITH LINGERING LIFT BEHIND THE DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A LITTLE CONVECTION.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER INSTABILITY/STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED...BUT NOT PLANNING ANY MENTION ATTM.
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING BEHIND DRY WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. OUR PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING EWD...ALLOWING A
RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
DROPPED CAUTION HEADLINES FROM THE COASTALS AS INITIALS SPEEDS
SHOULD BE RUNNING 15 KNOTS AT MOST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
INTO SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  44  64  50  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  30
KBPT  45  65  52  71  60 /   0  10  10  10  20
KAEX  39  61  45  69  57 /   0  10  10  10  40
KLFT  45  65  51  70  60 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KLCH 202147
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOW THE GULF LOW PRESSURE NOW
APPROACHING THE NERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION ATTM ALTHOUGH A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON. AS
STATED EARLIER DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT OVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
THE STRATUS HAS BEEN STEADILY DISSIPATING FROM NE-SW SINCE THIS
MORNING.

STILL EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH HOLDS TO OUR NE...MAINTAINING
A DRY NERLY/ERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT NOTED UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DIG OVER THE WRN 1/2
OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AND IN TURN ARE
PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE SRN TX COAST. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WRN/CNTL
GULF WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE SLIM RAIN CHANCES THEN SPREAD
NWD INTO THE ERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AS ENHANCED
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WORKS WITH LINGERING LIFT BEHIND THE DISTURBANCES TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE A LITTLE CONVECTION.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING FOR THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER INSTABILITY/STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED...BUT NOT PLANNING ANY MENTION ATTM.
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...
LEAVING BEHIND DRY WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. OUR PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING EWD...ALLOWING A
RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BEFORE YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
DROPPED CAUTION HEADLINES FROM THE COASTALS AS INITIALS SPEEDS
SHOULD BE RUNNING 15 KNOTS AT MOST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX
INTO SUNDAY WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  44  64  50  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  30
KBPT  45  65  52  71  60 /   0  10  10  10  20
KAEX  39  61  45  69  57 /   0  10  10  10  40
KLFT  45  65  51  70  60 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 201800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
20/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACRS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH RECENT STLT
IMAGES SHOW SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING ACRS WRN/CNTL LA AND SPREADING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LCH TERMINAL. MET/MAV MOS DIFFER IN REGARD TO
CIGS LIFTING/BREAKING BUT MODEL LOW LVL RH PROGS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WEDGE OF DRIER AIR WORKING INTO LCH/AEX AND
EVENTUALLY BPT WHILE LFT/ARA WILL PROBABLY SEE LITTLE IMPROVEMENT.
THUS...EXPECT MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AT AEX BY MID-AFTN...IFR TO
MVFR BY MID-AFTN AT LCH/BPT THEN VFR THIS EVENING...AND LIFR/IFR
TO MVFR AT LFT/ARA THIS EVENING. NELY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THAT ALL THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD-
MOVING SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GULF HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME BREAKS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE THICK STRATUS OVERCAST AS DRIER AIR TO
OUR NE BEGINS WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. ALL IN ALL
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES STILL LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED THIS MORNING...THUS NO UPDATE IS ON TAP.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR STRATUS AT 4-7
HUNDRED FEET WILL START THE TAF PACKAGES AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A FRONTAL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO BREAK AND SKIES CLEAR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH VFR RETURNING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA...ALL OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY AND DEVELOPING
TROUGHINESS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THUS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
EVE...HOWEVER BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING WINDS TO BE NEAR OR INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO START THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MORNING
LOWS...BUT WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LIKELY INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTS MAY GET OVER GALE FORCE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  43  61  48 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  45  63  50 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  56  39  60  45 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  58  45  63  50 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...04






000
FXUS64 KLCH 201645
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THAT ALL THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD-
MOVING SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GULF HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME BREAKS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE THICK STRATUS OVERCAST AS DRIER AIR TO
OUR NE BEGINS WRAPPING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. ALL IN ALL
INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES STILL LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED THIS MORNING...THUS NO UPDATE IS ON TAP.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR STRATUS AT 4-7
HUNDRED FEET WILL START THE TAF PACKAGES AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A FRONTAL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO BREAK AND SKIES CLEAR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH VFR RETURNING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA...ALL OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY AND DEVELOPING
TROUGHINESS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THUS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
EVE...HOWEVER BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING WINDS TO BE NEAR OR INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO START THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MORNING
LOWS...BUT WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LIKELY INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTS MAY GET OVER GALE FORCE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  43  62  49  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  45  63  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  56  39  60  45  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  58  45  64  50  70 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 201134
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR STRATUS AT 4-7
HUNDRED FEET WILL START THE TAF PACKAGES AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A FRONTAL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO BREAK AND SKIES CLEAR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH VFR RETURNING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA...ALL OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY AND DEVELOPING
TROUGHINESS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THUS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
EVE...HOWEVER BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING WINDS TO BE NEAR OR INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO START THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MORNING
LOWS...BUT WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LIKELY INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTS MAY GET OVER GALE FORCE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  43  62  49  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  45  63  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  56  39  60  45  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  58  45  64  50  70 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 201134
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR STRATUS AT 4-7
HUNDRED FEET WILL START THE TAF PACKAGES AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH A FRONTAL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO BREAK AND SKIES CLEAR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH VFR RETURNING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA...ALL OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY AND DEVELOPING
TROUGHINESS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THUS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
EVE...HOWEVER BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING WINDS TO BE NEAR OR INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO START THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MORNING
LOWS...BUT WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON FRIDAY.

MARINE...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LIKELY INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTS MAY GET OVER GALE FORCE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  43  62  49  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  45  63  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  56  39  60  45  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  58  45  64  50  70 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 201022
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA...ALL OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY AND DEVELOPING
TROUGHINESS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THUS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
EVE...HOWEVER BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING WINDS TO BE NEAR OR INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO START THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MORNING
LOWS...BUT WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LIKELY INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTS MAY GET OVER GALE FORCE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  43  62  49  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  45  63  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  56  39  60  45  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  58  45  64  50  70 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$
27







000
FXUS64 KLCH 201022
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA...ALL OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW EARLY AND DEVELOPING
TROUGHINESS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THUS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.

THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST
THAT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS
EVE...HOWEVER BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING WINDS TO BE NEAR OR INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS TO START THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL MORNING
LOWS...BUT WARM QUICKLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LIKELY INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTS MAY GET OVER GALE FORCE AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  43  62  49  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  60  45  63  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  56  39  60  45  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
KLFT  58  45  64  50  70 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$
27








000
FXUS64 KLCH 200320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT
ENDS...WHICH IN TURN...ALLOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL STILL HANG IN AFTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
ENDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ALSO...OBSERVATIONS FROM RIGS AND BUOYS SHOW WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN OUTER WATERS...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST BEYOND THE OUTER
WATERS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND PLACED MARINE ZONES BEYOND 20
NM BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-RA WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z SAT. NNE WINDS 10-14 KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD
OF IT JUST BEYOND THE MARINE ZONES...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF
CROSSING THE CNTL CONUS ATTM WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE BEHIND IT. BIG
STORY LOCALLY REMAINS THE PLENTIFUL LIGHT RAIN NOTED ON REGIONAL
88DS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL BREAK HERE AND THERE.

POPS REMAIN HIGH FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME NWRN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS 88DS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THAT AREA ATTM. THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TODAY AS WE
AWAIT THE TROF TO PUSH FARTHER EWD WHICH WILL FINALLY SHOVE THE
GULF LOW EWD WHILE ALSO USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CUTTING OFF THE
OVERRUNNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TROF WILL ACT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE...BUT THE RESULTANT
ZONAL FLOW AND SFC HIGH BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHING OFF THE SRN TX COAST IS PROGGED TO HELP RAMP UP ANOTHER
GULF LOW WHICH WILL THEN PUSH ENEWD...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME SERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RUN RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN WARM JUST SLIGHTLY
FOR SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS FINE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A RAPID WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
SOME COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. HOWEVER OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES A
RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BACK BY CHRISTMAS.

MARINE...
INTRODUCED CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE WRN WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LEAVES BEHIND A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT. WINDS WILL RELAX BEGINNING LATER
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK SHOT OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  47  59  44  62  48 /  50  10  10  10   0
KBPT  47  61  46  63  49 /  20  10  10  10   0
KAEX  44  55  41  59  44 /  20  10  10  10  10
KLFT  47  58  46  62  50 /  90  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 200320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT
ENDS...WHICH IN TURN...ALLOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL STILL HANG IN AFTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
ENDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ALSO...OBSERVATIONS FROM RIGS AND BUOYS SHOW WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN OUTER WATERS...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST BEYOND THE OUTER
WATERS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND PLACED MARINE ZONES BEYOND 20
NM BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-RA WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z SAT. NNE WINDS 10-14 KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD
OF IT JUST BEYOND THE MARINE ZONES...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF
CROSSING THE CNTL CONUS ATTM WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE BEHIND IT. BIG
STORY LOCALLY REMAINS THE PLENTIFUL LIGHT RAIN NOTED ON REGIONAL
88DS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL BREAK HERE AND THERE.

POPS REMAIN HIGH FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME NWRN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS 88DS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THAT AREA ATTM. THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TODAY AS WE
AWAIT THE TROF TO PUSH FARTHER EWD WHICH WILL FINALLY SHOVE THE
GULF LOW EWD WHILE ALSO USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CUTTING OFF THE
OVERRUNNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TROF WILL ACT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE...BUT THE RESULTANT
ZONAL FLOW AND SFC HIGH BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHING OFF THE SRN TX COAST IS PROGGED TO HELP RAMP UP ANOTHER
GULF LOW WHICH WILL THEN PUSH ENEWD...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME SERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RUN RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN WARM JUST SLIGHTLY
FOR SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS FINE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A RAPID WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
SOME COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. HOWEVER OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES A
RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BACK BY CHRISTMAS.

MARINE...
INTRODUCED CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE WRN WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LEAVES BEHIND A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT. WINDS WILL RELAX BEGINNING LATER
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK SHOT OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  47  59  44  62  48 /  50  10  10  10   0
KBPT  47  61  46  63  49 /  20  10  10  10   0
KAEX  44  55  41  59  44 /  20  10  10  10  10
KLFT  47  58  46  62  50 /  90  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 192329
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
-RA WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z SAT. NNE WINDS 10-14 KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE PERIOD.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD
OF IT JUST BEYOND THE MARINE ZONES...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF
CROSSING THE CNTL CONUS ATTM WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE BEHIND IT. BIG
STORY LOCALLY REMAINS THE PLENTIFUL LIGHT RAIN NOTED ON REGIONAL
88DS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL BREAK HERE AND THERE.

POPS REMAIN HIGH FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME NWRN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS 88DS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THAT AREA ATTM. THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TODAY AS WE
AWAIT THE TROF TO PUSH FARTHER EWD WHICH WILL FINALLY SHOVE THE
GULF LOW EWD WHILE ALSO USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CUTTING OFF THE
OVERRUNNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TROF WILL ACT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE...BUT THE RESULTANT
ZONAL FLOW AND SFC HIGH BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHING OFF THE SRN TX COAST IS PROGGED TO HELP RAMP UP ANOTHER
GULF LOW WHICH WILL THEN PUSH ENEWD...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME SERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RUN RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN WARM JUST SLIGHTLY
FOR SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS FINE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A RAPID WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
SOME COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. HOWEVER OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES A
RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BACK BY CHRISTMAS.

MARINE...
INTRODUCED CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE WRN WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LEAVES BEHIND A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT. WINDS WILL RELAX BEGINNING LATER
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK SHOT OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  59  44  62  48 /  60  10  10  10   0
KBPT  47  61  46  63  49 /  40  10  10  10   0
KAEX  43  55  41  59  44 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  48  58  46  62  50 /  70  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 192329
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
529 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
-RA WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z SAT. NNE WINDS 10-14 KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE PERIOD.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD
OF IT JUST BEYOND THE MARINE ZONES...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF
CROSSING THE CNTL CONUS ATTM WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE BEHIND IT. BIG
STORY LOCALLY REMAINS THE PLENTIFUL LIGHT RAIN NOTED ON REGIONAL
88DS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL BREAK HERE AND THERE.

POPS REMAIN HIGH FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME NWRN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS 88DS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THAT AREA ATTM. THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TODAY AS WE
AWAIT THE TROF TO PUSH FARTHER EWD WHICH WILL FINALLY SHOVE THE
GULF LOW EWD WHILE ALSO USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CUTTING OFF THE
OVERRUNNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TROF WILL ACT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE...BUT THE RESULTANT
ZONAL FLOW AND SFC HIGH BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHING OFF THE SRN TX COAST IS PROGGED TO HELP RAMP UP ANOTHER
GULF LOW WHICH WILL THEN PUSH ENEWD...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME SERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RUN RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN WARM JUST SLIGHTLY
FOR SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS FINE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A RAPID WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
SOME COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. HOWEVER OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES A
RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BACK BY CHRISTMAS.

MARINE...
INTRODUCED CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE WRN WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LEAVES BEHIND A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT. WINDS WILL RELAX BEGINNING LATER
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK SHOT OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  59  44  62  48 /  60  10  10  10   0
KBPT  47  61  46  63  49 /  40  10  10  10   0
KAEX  43  55  41  59  44 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  48  58  46  62  50 /  70  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 192140
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD
OF IT JUST BEYOND THE MARINE ZONES...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF
CROSSING THE CNTL CONUS ATTM WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE BEHIND IT. BIG
STORY LOCALLY REMAINS THE PLENTIFUL LIGHT RAIN NOTED ON REGIONAL
88DS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL BREAK HERE AND THERE.

POPS REMAIN HIGH FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME NWRN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS 88DS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THAT AREA ATTM. THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TODAY AS WE
AWAIT THE TROF TO PUSH FARTHER EWD WHICH WILL FINALLY SHOVE THE
GULF LOW EWD WHILE ALSO USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CUTTING OFF THE
OVERRUNNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TROF WILL ACT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE...BUT THE RESULTANT
ZONAL FLOW AND SFC HIGH BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHING OFF THE SRN TX COAST IS PROGGED TO HELP RAMP UP ANOTHER
GULF LOW WHICH WILL THEN PUSH ENEWD...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME SERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RUN RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN WARM JUST SLIGHTLY
FOR SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS FINE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A RAPID WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
SOME COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. HOWEVER OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES A
RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BACK BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.MARINE...
INTRODUCED CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE WRN WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LEAVES BEHIND A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT. WINDS WILL RELAX BEGINNING LATER
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK SHOT OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  59  44  62  48 /  60  10  10  10   0
KBPT  47  61  46  63  49 /  40  10  10  10   0
KAEX  43  55  41  59  44 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  48  58  46  62  50 /  70  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KLCH 192140
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD
OF IT JUST BEYOND THE MARINE ZONES...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF
CROSSING THE CNTL CONUS ATTM WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE BEHIND IT. BIG
STORY LOCALLY REMAINS THE PLENTIFUL LIGHT RAIN NOTED ON REGIONAL
88DS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL BREAK HERE AND THERE.

POPS REMAIN HIGH FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME NWRN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS 88DS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THAT AREA ATTM. THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TODAY AS WE
AWAIT THE TROF TO PUSH FARTHER EWD WHICH WILL FINALLY SHOVE THE
GULF LOW EWD WHILE ALSO USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CUTTING OFF THE
OVERRUNNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TROF WILL ACT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE...BUT THE RESULTANT
ZONAL FLOW AND SFC HIGH BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHING OFF THE SRN TX COAST IS PROGGED TO HELP RAMP UP ANOTHER
GULF LOW WHICH WILL THEN PUSH ENEWD...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME SERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RUN RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN WARM JUST SLIGHTLY
FOR SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS FINE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A RAPID WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
SOME COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. HOWEVER OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES A
RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BACK BY CHRISTMAS.

&&

.MARINE...
INTRODUCED CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE WRN WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LEAVES BEHIND A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT. WINDS WILL RELAX BEGINNING LATER
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK SHOT OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  59  44  62  48 /  60  10  10  10   0
KBPT  47  61  46  63  49 /  40  10  10  10   0
KAEX  43  55  41  59  44 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  48  58  46  62  50 /  70  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25






000
FXUS64 KLCH 191759
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
AN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION. REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...INITIALIZED
WITH VCSH AT LCH/LFT/ARA WHERE RADAR RETURNS LOOK MORE SCTD AT THE
MOMENT...THEN TRENDED TOWARD PREVAILING -RA FM MID-AFTN ONWARD AS
THE RAIN SHIELD SPREADS EAST. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM W TO
E DURING THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NELY WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WILL BECOME MORE NLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE
COAST.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CANNOT REALLY FIND A REASON TO CHANGE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. LOCAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUING TO COVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INCHING NWD
ALONG THE COAST...AND DECENT OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. DID ADJUST THE MAX TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR
NRN ZONES WHERE TEMPS HAVE CREPT ABOVE INHERITED MAXES...BUT
ADDITIONAL WARMING LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS/RAIN.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON TODAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS. IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AND
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL YIELD BRIEF LOWER VSBYS. RAINS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES
OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION. IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT AND INTO THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND
FIVE TO SIX INCHES. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN
THE NORMALLY LOW LYING LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ALL THAT MUCH AS RAINS WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE RAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVER NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE START ON SATURDAY. SKIES
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR...THEREFORE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY. RAINS RETURN BACK ON TUESDAY.

FOR THOSE LOOKING TOWARDS CHRISTMAS... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
MID 60S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  45  55  44 / 100  40  10  10
KBPT  62  46  56  46 / 100  30  10  10
KAEX  53  42  53  41 / 100  50  10  10
KLFT  63  46  57  46 / 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 191759
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
AN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION. REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF TAF SITES. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...INITIALIZED
WITH VCSH AT LCH/LFT/ARA WHERE RADAR RETURNS LOOK MORE SCTD AT THE
MOMENT...THEN TRENDED TOWARD PREVAILING -RA FM MID-AFTN ONWARD AS
THE RAIN SHIELD SPREADS EAST. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FM W TO
E DURING THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF BUT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NELY WINDS AROUND 10 KT
WILL BECOME MORE NLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFF THE
COAST.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CANNOT REALLY FIND A REASON TO CHANGE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. LOCAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUING TO COVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INCHING NWD
ALONG THE COAST...AND DECENT OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. DID ADJUST THE MAX TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR
NRN ZONES WHERE TEMPS HAVE CREPT ABOVE INHERITED MAXES...BUT
ADDITIONAL WARMING LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS/RAIN.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON TODAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS. IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AND
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL YIELD BRIEF LOWER VSBYS. RAINS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES
OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION. IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT AND INTO THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND
FIVE TO SIX INCHES. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN
THE NORMALLY LOW LYING LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ALL THAT MUCH AS RAINS WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE RAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVER NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE START ON SATURDAY. SKIES
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR...THEREFORE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY. RAINS RETURN BACK ON TUESDAY.

FOR THOSE LOOKING TOWARDS CHRISTMAS... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
MID 60S.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  45  55  44 / 100  40  10  10
KBPT  62  46  56  46 / 100  30  10  10
KAEX  53  42  53  41 / 100  50  10  10
KLFT  63  46  57  46 / 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 191635
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CANNOT REALLY FIND A REASON TO CHANGE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. LOCAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUING TO COVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INCHING NWD
ALONG THE COAST...AND DECENT OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. DID ADJUST THE MAX TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR
NRN ZONES WHERE TEMPS HAVE CREPT ABOVE INHERITED MAXES...BUT
ADDITIONAL WARMING LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS/RAIN.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON TODAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS. IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AND
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL YIELD BRIEF LOWER VSBYS. RAINS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES
OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION. IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT AND INTO THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND
FIVE TO SIX INCHES. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN
THE NORMALLY LOW LYING LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ALL THAT MUCH AS RAINS WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE RAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVER NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE START ON SATURDAY. SKIES
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR...THEREFORE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY. RAINS RETURN BACK ON TUESDAY.

FOR THOSE LOOKING TOWARDS CHRISTMAS... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  46  57  45  60 / 100  40  10  10  10
KBPT  62  46  56  46  61 / 100  30  10  10  10
KAEX  53  42  53  41  57 / 100  50  10  10  10
KLFT  63  47  57  46  61 / 100  50  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 191635
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CANNOT REALLY FIND A REASON TO CHANGE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS
MORNING. LOCAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUING TO COVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF...AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INCHING NWD
ALONG THE COAST...AND DECENT OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. DID ADJUST THE MAX TEMPS JUST SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR
NRN ZONES WHERE TEMPS HAVE CREPT ABOVE INHERITED MAXES...BUT
ADDITIONAL WARMING LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS/RAIN.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON TODAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS. IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AND
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL YIELD BRIEF LOWER VSBYS. RAINS WILL TAPER
OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROF MOVES
OVER AND EAST OF THE REGION. IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE LOW OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT AND INTO THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND
FIVE TO SIX INCHES. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN
THE NORMALLY LOW LYING LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ALL THAT MUCH AS RAINS WILL COOL THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE RAINS BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVER NIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE START ON SATURDAY. SKIES
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR...THEREFORE AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
SATURDAY. RAINS RETURN BACK ON TUESDAY.

FOR THOSE LOOKING TOWARDS CHRISTMAS... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A
COOL START TO THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
MID 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  46  57  45  60 / 100  40  10  10  10
KBPT  62  46  56  46  61 / 100  30  10  10  10
KAEX  53  42  53  41  57 / 100  50  10  10  10
KLFT  63  47  57  46  61 / 100  50  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









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