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000
FXUS64 KLIX 232047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS ARE FINALLY ESTABLISHING LAKE AND SEA
BREEZE REGIME FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUD COVER TAHT WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TODAY. A REPEAT SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY AFTER
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG BURNS OFF BY MID-MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
STEADY STATE ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRIEFLY BECOME DISRUPTED ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOWER END OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME CONVERGENT BOUNDARY GENERATED SHOWERS DUE TO INTERATIONS WITH
LAKE AND SEA BREEZES. TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
RATHER LARGE AND STRONG CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
WITH DEEP FETCHED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THES
SCENARIO SHOULD FEATURE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH BUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT EXTENDS DOWN TO THE
GULF COAST AREAS...THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SQUALL LINE AND DISCRETE BOWING SEGMENTS MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE WEATHER IS INDICATED TO DEPART TUESDAY MORNING BUT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE COLDEST ADVECTION DOES NOT FULLY SWING
THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IF ECMWF
VERIFIES...NOT QUITE AS COLD BUT STILL COLD IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RECORD FOR LOWEST MAX DAILY TEMPERATURE
IF ALL PANS OUT AND TEMPS ONLY REACH MID 60S. RECORD LOWS DURING
THAT PERIOD ARE AROUND 40 AT KBTR AND UPPER 40S IN NEW ORLEANS
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO 5-6SM BR BEFORE DAYBREAK
MAINLY DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND AND RADIATIONAL FOG BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF BY 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A TIGHTENING OF THE ONSHORE WIND GRADIENT SUNDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE SEAS TO RESPOND IN KIND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS RELAX A BIT ON TUESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTH GULF NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL FOR MON/TUE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
       VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
      AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
      SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  60  84  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  60  81  63  80 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  82  66  82 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  58  78  65  79 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  79  62  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLIX 231336 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
836 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
REMINDER THAT WEDNESDAY IS WEEKLY RADIO TEST DAY AROUND 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT HWO ISSUANCE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND SPC 4-7 DAY OUTLOOK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING. AN OVERLY DRY SOUNDING ABOVE
810 MB WITH JUST SOME MODERATE SATURATION WITH 5C DEPRESSIONS FROM
SURFACE INVERSION TO BASE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 810 MB. QUITE
STABLE WITH A SHOWALTER OF 6...LIFTED INDEX 0.6. PRECIPITABLE
WATER 0.79 INCHES IS ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS 12
HOURS. WINDS CALM TO LIGHT NE SURFACE TO 5KFT...NW 5-15 KT TO
17KFT...A LAYER OF SW 10 KT TO ABOUT 22KFT...THEN NW 10-55 KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 280/55KT AT 50.2KFT. DOUBLE TROPOPAUSE STRUCTURE
WITH A WARM -58.2C AT 200MB...THEN -71.9C AT 106MB. BALLOON BURST
28 MILES ESE AT AN ALTITUDE OF 32625 M/ 20.27 MILES UP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT 6 MILES S OF BUCCANEER STATE PARK ON THE
HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 994MB LOW OVER MAINE WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO GEORGIA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
MISSISSIPPI DELTA MOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. DEWPOINT READINGS
WERE 65 TO 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT 55 TO 65 NORTH OF THE FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
FRONT...HOUMA AIRPORT WAS QUARTER MILE...GALIANO AIRPORT WAS A
QUARTER...PATTERSON WAS HALF. HOWEVER...NET CAMS AROUND HOUMA
INDICATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 2 MILES. WILL HANDLE FOG WITH
SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
DRYING IN MID AND UPPER ATM OVER THE GULF COAST DUE TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH AXIS FROM WASHINGTON TO ARIZONA. 18

SHORT TERM...
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR PROGRESSION FROM
WEST TO EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST TO THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURF WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SATURATION IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. WITH THIS
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY. 18

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK EAST. WITH THE
AXIS ALREADY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND NORTHERN TRACK EQUATE TO LOW TO
NIL CHANCES OF RAIN AS THE AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TAKE A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK ACROSS ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCE AND
POSSIBLY STRONG CONVECTION. ALBEIT WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT TIMES OVER
THE WEEKEND...INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH SHOW AN EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY THEN
THEY DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS
TRACK WILL BRING A CLOUDY SKY...BELOW NORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES THE CONUS. ECMWF
KEEPS A CLOSED LOW BUT FARTHER NORTH. WE LEAN TO GFS WITH TEMPS
BUT NOT AS COLD AND JUST CLOUDY AND NO RAIN FOR NOW AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
08-13Z. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KHUM WHERE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY THE LOWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MEFFER

MARINE...
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NOW
THROUGH MID WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY AND BEYOND THE WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD EXIST AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
STRONG THIS BOUNDARY IS.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  84  61  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  79  58  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  79  57  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KLIX 231200 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 994MB LOW OVER MAINE WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO GEORGIA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
MISSISSIPPI DELTA MOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. DEWPOINT READINGS
WERE 65 TO 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT 55 TO 65 NORTH OF THE FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
FRONT...HOUMA AIRPORT WAS QUARTER MILE...GALIANO AIRPORT WAS A
QUARTER...PATTERSON WAS HALF. HOWEVER...NET CAMS AROUND HOUMA
INDICATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 2 MILES. WILL HANDLE FOG WITH
SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
DRYING IN MID AND UPPER ATM OVER THE GULF COAST DUE TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH AXIS FROM WASHINGTON TO ARIZONA. 18

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR PROGRESSION FROM
WEST TO EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST TO THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURF WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SATURATION IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. WITH THIS
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK EAST. WITH THE
AXIS ALREADY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND NORTHERN TRACK EQUATE TO LOW TO
NIL CHANCES OF RAIN AS THE AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TAKE A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK ACROSS ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCE AND
POSSIBLY STRONG CONVECTION. ALBEIT WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT TIMES OVER
THE WEEKEND...INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH SHOW AN EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY THEN
THEY DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS
TRACK WILL BRING A CLOUDY SKY...BELOW NORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES THE CONUS. ECMWF
KEEPS A CLOSED LOW BUT FARTHER NORTH. WE LEAN TO GFS WITH TEMPS
BUT NOT AS COLD AND JUST CLOUDY AND NO RAIN FOR NOW AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
08-13Z. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KHUM WHERE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY THE LOWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NOW
THROUGH MID WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY AND BEYOND THE WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD EXIST AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
STRONG THIS BOUNDARY IS.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  84  61  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  79  58  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  79  57  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLIX 230946
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
446 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 994MB LOW OVER MAINE WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO GEORGIA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
MISSISSIPPI DELTA MOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. DEWPOINT READINGS
WERE 65 TO 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT 55 TO 65 NORTH OF THE FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
FRONT...HOUMA AIRPORT WAS QUARTER MILE...GALIANO AIRPORT WAS A
QUARTER...PATTERSON WAS HALF. HOWEVER...NET CAMS AROUND HOUMA
INDICATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 2 MILES. WILL HANDLE FOG WITH
SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
DRYING IN MID AND UPPER ATM OVER THE GULF COAST DUE TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH AXIS FROM WASHINGTON TO ARIZONA. 18

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR PROGRESSION FROM
WEST TO EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST TO THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURF WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SATURATION IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. WITH THIS
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK EAST. WITH THE
AXIS ALREADY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND NORTHERN TRACK EQUATE TO LOW TO
NIL CHANCES OF RAIN AS THE AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TAKE A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK ACROSS ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCE AND
POSSIBLY STRONG CONVECTION. ALBEIT WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT TIMES OVER
THE WEEKEND...INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH SHOW AN EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY THEN
THEY DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS
TRACK WILL BRING A CLOUDY SKY...BELOW NORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES THE CONUS. ECMWF
KEEPS A CLOSED LOW BUT FARTHER NORTH. WE LEAN TO GFS WITH TEMPS
BUT NOT AS COLD AND JUST CLOUDY AND NO RAIN FOR NOW AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
08-13Z. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KHUM WHERE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY THE LOWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NOW
THROUGH MID WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY AND BEYOND THE WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD EXIST AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
STRONG THIS BOUNDARY IS.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  84  61  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  79  58  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  79  57  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 230500
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1200 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
10-13Z. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KHUM WHERE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN
PLACE BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION AT 750MB. ABOVE THE
INVERSION...A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT IN A
MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...ONLY A BROKEN
STRATOCU FIELD AND SOME LIGHT MARINE LAYER SHOWERS WERE NOTED
AROUND THE TIME OF OBSERVATION. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  81  59  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  59  81  60  81 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  77  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  62  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  59  79  57  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 230121
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
821 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN
PLACE BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION AT 750MB. ABOVE THE
INVERSION...A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT IN A
MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...ONLY A BROKEN
STRATOCU FIELD AND SOME LIGHT MARINE LAYER SHOWERS WERE NOTED
AROUND THE TIME OF OBSERVATION. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  57  81  59 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  79  61  83  61 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  77  59  81  60 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  77  64  77  64 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  77  62  79  58 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  75  59  79  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 222033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. RAINFALL HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PRIMARILY SPOTTY ALMOST STRATIFORM OR VERY LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE MARINE LAYER INSTABILITY BELOW WARM MID-LAYER. THERE IS
STILL A SMALL WINDOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING SHUTS OFF AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RELAX TO
THE POINT WHERE RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 4 AM
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE INDICATED THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
FEW MODELS DO GRAZE THE SOUTHWEST MS COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN BUT
THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT UNTIL MORE RESOLUTION IN NEXT MODEL RUNS OR
TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE PERSISTENT NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STEADY STATE THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER
LARGE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND
DEVELOPS A STRONG SURFACE LOW TO BRING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA AND MAY INVOLVE SEVERE STORMS THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z BEFORE RADIATIONAL FOG
INDUCES MVFR CIGS/VSBY BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY TO VFR CAVOK FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS WINDS STEADILY WALK FROM WEAK OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EAST TOMORROW AND SOUTHEAST BY WEDNEDAY NIGHT THEN LIGHT STEADY
STATE ONSHORE FLOW THR0UGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DOES
NOT MOVE OFF THE COAST UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  81  59  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  59  81  60  81 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  77  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  62  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  59  79  57  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR








000
FXUS64 KLIX 221308
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
808 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS PW
VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT NEARS. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE PROFILE OF THE SOUNDING ONLY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...WHERE ANY RAIN DOES OCCUR. WINDS ARE
UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING...OUT OF THE WEST.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TEXAS HILLS.
SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH ALABAMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO JUST
EAST OF TEXAS HILLS. NAM AND GFS INITIALIZED THE 500MB
DISTURBANCE/VORT MAX OVER ARKANSAS.

SHORT TERM...
WRF3KM SHOWED THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HOLDING
TOGETHER AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FLORIDA
PARISHES THROUGH NOON...REMAINING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE OVER ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TO
GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ZONES THROUGH AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
AT THE SAME TIME. SHV INDICATED PW VALUE OF 1.35 INCHES IN THE
AXIS WHILE GFS WAS A TENTH HIGHER. GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE AXIS
MOVING EAST AND DECREASING TO 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. UNDOUBTEDLY SOME OR QUITE A FEW AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE
ANY RAINFALL...THEREFORE WILL INSERT 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES AND MISSISSIPPI COAST...AREAS
CLOSES TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY DECREASE BY 5 DEGREES AT THE MOST
THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH HALF ZONES/COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CREATE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
ERGO...SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM...
THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL NOT BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
SATURDAY BUT MAINTAIN BROAD RIDGE OVER EAST CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LARGE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST. IF THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS TRUE...VERY COLD CORE STORM WILL BRING STRONG
STORMS AND LOWER THICKNESS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH RECORD COLD
TEMPS FOR THE END OF APRIL.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OTHER
THAN A THIN CIRRUS DECK PASSING OVER AND A FEW LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING AS SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP. IF MVFR CIGS DO DEVELOP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATER MORNING TO POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN.

MEFFER

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND LENDING
TO LIGHT COASTAL WATER WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  57  81  57 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  61  83  62 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  79  59  81  58 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  78  64 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  77  62  79  58 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  77  59  79  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 220936
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
436 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TEXAS HILLS.
SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH ALABAMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO JUST
EAST OF TEXAS HILLS. NAM AND GFS INITIALIZED THE 500MB
DISTURBANCE/VORT MAX OVER ARKANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WRF3KM SHOWED THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HOLDING
TOGETHER AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FLORIDA
PARISHES THROUGH NOON...REMAINING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE OVER ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TO
GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ZONES THROUGH AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
AT THE SAME TIME. SHV INDICATED PW VALUE OF 1.35 INCHES IN THE
AXIS WHILE GFS WAS A TENTH HIGHER. GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE AXIS
MOVING EAST AND DECREASING TO 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. UNDOUBTEDLY SOME OR QUITE A FEW AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE
ANY RAINFALL...THEREFORE WILL INSERT 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES AND MISSISSIPPI COAST...AREAS
CLOSES TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY DECREASE BY 5 DEGREES AT THE MOST
THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH HALF ZONES/COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CREATE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
ERGO...SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL NOT BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
SATURDAY BUT MAINTAIN BROAD RIDGE OVER EAST CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LARGE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST. IF THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS TRUE...VERY COLD CORE STORM WILL BRING STRONG
STORMS AND LOWER THICKNESS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH RECORD COLD
TEMPS FOR THE END OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OTHER
THAN A THIN CIRRUS DECK PASSING OVER AND A FEW LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING AS SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP. IF MVFR CIGS DO DEVELOP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATER MORNING TO POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND LENDING
TO LIGHT COASTAL WATER WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  57  81  57 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  61  83  62 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  79  59  81  58 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  78  64 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  77  62  79  58 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  77  59  79  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 220455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS AT MIDNIGHT SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR
AND IFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING TUESDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE LATER MORNING TO POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE 1020MB SITUATED OVER THE MID-GULF STATES AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NUDGE EASTWARD A LITTLE
BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW A FRONTAL ZONE TO SAG INTO THE AREA. RESIDUAL
SUBSIDENCE AND SOME DRAINAGE ASPECTS MAY ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY NOT BE FULLY
AFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK ANTICIPATED TO ROLL IN ON
LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE. ONE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION MOVING NORTHEAST. MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BULK OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATION
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. WITH FRONT ENTERING AREA AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER THAT ENDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL
MAINTAIN ONGOING FORECAST 20-40 PERCENT IN A N-S GRADIENT FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND ISOLATED FOR THE EVENING HOURS...ALL ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH A SENSE OF PERSISTENCE DEVELOPING HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. CONTINENTAL HIGH POST-FRONTAL WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
AND ONSET ONSHORE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
DAILY SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DIFFICULT NOT TO KEEP AT LEAST 20-30 PERCENT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON IN THIS REGIME. NEXT ORGANIZED
SYSTEM IS INDICATED TO BE AN APPROACHING SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY THAT
MAY STALL OVER THE AREA FOR A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
STORMS. THIS IS CURRENTLY JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST WINDOW BUT
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ADVECTION ON LOW LEVEL JET TO ESTABLISH
MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING THAT MAY LOWER TO IFR WITH ACCOMPANYING
RADIATIONAL FOG MAINLY IN DRAINAGE AFFECTED AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE
THE CASE AT KMCB...KGPT...KPQL AND KASD. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME
VARIABLE HIGH END MVFR-LOW END VFR AFTER 15Z WTH CONVECTION AHEAD
OF FRONT WARRANTING AT LEAST VCTS AFTER 22/17Z IN WESTERN
TERMINALS AND VCSH EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF. FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING TO VEER
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY BUT STILL AT RATHER LIGHT LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE FRINGE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH GULF AND MOVE EAST TO KEEP
WINDS VEERING THROUGH EASTERLY WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW THEREAFTER. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT RATHER LOW LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ONCE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  79  57  84 /  20  40  20  10
BTR  59  84  61  84 /  10  30  20  10
ASD  59  79  60  82 /  10  30  10  10
MSY  60  79  64  81 /  10  30  10  10
GPT  59  77  62  80 /  10  30  10  10
PQL  56  77  59  77 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 212011
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE 1020MB SITUTATED OVER THE MID-GULF STATES AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NUDGE EASTWARD A LITTLE
BY TUESDAY TO ALLOW A FRONTAL ZONE TO SAG INTO THE AREA. RESIDUAL
SUBSIDENCE AND SOME DRAINAGE ASPECTS MAY ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY NOT BE FULLY
AFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER STRATUS DECK ANTICIPATED TO ROLL IN ON
LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE. ONE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION MOVING NORTHEAST. MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BULK OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO
PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATION
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILTY TO SUPPORT NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. WITH FRONT ENTERING AREA AROUND MAX DAYTIME HEATING THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER THAT ENDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL
MAINTAIN ONGOING FORECAST 20-40 PERCENT IN A N-S GRADIENT FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND ISOLATED FOR THE EVENING HOURS...ALL ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ESSENTIALLY A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WITH A SENSE OF PERSISTENCE DEVELOPING HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. CONTINENTAL HIGH POST-FRONTAL WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
AND ONSET ONSHORE FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH LIKLIHOOD OF
DAILY SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY AND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DIFFICULT NOT TO KEEP AT LEAST 20-30 PERCENT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON IN THIS REGIME. NEXT ORGANIZED
SYSTEM IS INDICATED TO BE AN APPROACHING SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY THAT
MAY STALL OVER THE AREA FOR A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
STORMS. THIS IS CURRENTLY JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST WINDOW BUT
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS ADVECTION ON LOW LEVEL JET TO ESTABLISH
MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING THAT MAY LOWER TO IFR WITH ACCOMPANYING
RADIATIONAL FOG MAINLY IN DRAINAGE AFFECTED AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE
THE CASE AT KMCB...KGPT...KPQL AND KASD. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME
VARIABLE HIGH END MVFR-LOW END VFR AFTER 15Z WTH CONVECTION AHEAD
OF FRONT WARRANTING AT LEAST VCTS AFTER 22/17Z IN WESTERN
TERMINALS AND VCSH EASTERN HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF. FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY EVENING TO VEER
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY BUT STILL AT RATHER LIGHT LEVELS. HIGH
PRESSURE FRINGE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTH GULF AND MOVE EAST TO KEEP
WINDS VEERING THROUGH EASTERLY WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW THEREAFTER. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT RATHER LOW LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STEADY STATE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ONCE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  79  57  84 /  10  40  20  10
BTR  59  84  61  84 /  10  30  20  10
ASD  59  79  60  82 /  10  30  10  10
MSY  60  79  64  81 /  10  30  10  10
GPT  59  77  62  80 /  10  30  10  10
PQL  56  77  59  77 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR








000
FXUS64 KLIX 211520 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1020 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
DID CLEAN UP CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS IN GRID IN THE SH0RT-
TERM BUT NOT UPDATING ANY ACTUAL PUBLIC PRODUCTS...JUST NDFD
DATABASE VIEWING AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCES WILL BE DEALING WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK
ROLLING OFF THE GULF AND IMPACTING KGPT/KPQL/KNEW/KASD AND
ADVANCING INLAND OVER TIME. THIS DECK WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY AT
MVFR LEVELS BUT MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN SCT-BKN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECK TO LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLY SOME IFR VSBYS IN RADIATIONAL/ADVECTIVE FOG MAINLY AFTER
06Z. 24/RR

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH MORNING FLIGHT. SURFACE BASED SHALLOW INVERSION
OF 8F THROUGH 1007MB/400 FT...THEN RELATIVELY DRY LAYER TO BASE OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 873MB...WARM TO ISOTHERMAL LAYER 10-12C TO
700 MB...ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE TO 510 MB...THEN PSEUDO TO
TROPOPAUSE AT 184MB. MODERATELY MOIST FROM SURFACE INVERSION TO
BASE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THEN VERY DRY BETWEEN 800-650
MB...SOME LIMITED MOISTURE WITH DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 8-10C TO 510
MB...THEN DRY ALOFT. WINDS SE-E 0-10 KT SURFACE TO
2300FT...VARBIABLE LESS THAN 15KT TO 7400FT...THEN W 5-75KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 270/76KT AT 38.3KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASED
SLIGHTLY TO 0.92 INCHES SINCE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. LIFTED INDEX 2.5.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS
HAVE REBOUNDED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES FROM 58 TO 63 ACROSS
THE WEST ZONES DOWN TO 52 TO 57F ACROSS THE EAST ZONES. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB SHOWED A JET MAX NEAR 75
KNOTS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM FROM JUST SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO SOUTH TEXAS TO FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
POSITIONING OF JETS CREATES A DIVERGENCE AREA ALOFT JUST WEST OF
ARKLATEX REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 00Z ON A PLANER VIEW
REVEALED THE WEDGE OF DRY VALUES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF
WITH VALUES FROM 0.5 TO 0.85 INCH AND A SWATH OF MOISTURE 1 TO 1.4
INCHES FROM WEST GULF TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TO WESTERN MISSOURI...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

SHORT TERM...
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO THE 60S TODAY AND TONIGHT...AMBIENT TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL MEET RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ZONES
THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND COULD HAMPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD FOR LONG DURATION TONIGHT BUT
CANT RULE A FEW AREAS EXPERIENCING PATCHY DENSE FOG AT TIMES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL INSERT PATCHY FOG FOR NOW ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES.
SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL
PLACE THE SLIGHT DIVERGENCE AREA OVER THE NORTH HALF ZONES ON
TUESDAY BUT SLIGHT TO NIL VEERING WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FROM SURF
TO 700MB BEFORE THE WAVE. MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ALSO WITH
1.4 INCHES OVER THE NORTH ZONES TUESDAY MORNING ...THEN SOUTH
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SURF BASE AND MID LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING UP TO 1500J/KG.
ERGO...CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT BUT WAVE WILL BECOME STRETCHED
AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY AND TUESDAY AND SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH/CLEAR
THE LAND AREA BY 12Z WED.

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
EAST GULF CREATING A WEAK SOUTH FLOW OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PLAINS AND SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY YIELD A SOUTH FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
APPROACH THE AREA BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM...FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...WILL
TAP DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND CREATE A SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LAST FEW HOURS WHEN A PATCH
OF LIFR CLOUDS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BTR TO MCB. OTHERWISE...FEW
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE...SO HAVE INCLUDED
4SM BR AT A FEW TAF AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING 10-14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING ON MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE TRACKS
WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UP UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT PRETTY BENIGN CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS BACK EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  58  79  58 /  10  10  40  10
BTR  83  60  84  58 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  78  59  79  59 /  10  10  30  10
MSY  78  62  79  64 /  10  10  30  10
GPT  74  62  77  61 /  10  10  30  10
PQL  74  56  77  60 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 210927
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
427 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS
HAVE REBOUNDED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES FROM 58 TO 63 ACROSS
THE WEST ZONES DOWN TO 52 TO 57F ACROSS THE EAST ZONES. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB SHOWED A JET MAX NEAR 75
KNOTS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM FROM JUST SOUTH OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO SOUTH TEXAS TO FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
POSITIONING OF JETS CREATES A DIVERGENCE AREA ALOFT JUST WEST OF
ARKLATEX REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 00Z ON A PLANER VIEW
REVEALED THE WEDGE OF DRY VALUES FROM OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF
WITH VALUES FROM 0.5 TO 0.85 INCH AND A SWATH OF MOISTURE 1 TO 1.4
INCHES FROM WEST GULF TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TO WESTERN MISSOURI...MAINLY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
INCREASING TO THE 60S TODAY AND TONIGHT...AMBIENT TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WILL MEET RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ZONES
THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND COULD HAMPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD FOR LONG DURATION TONIGHT BUT
CANT RULE A FEW AREAS EXPERIENCING PATCHY DENSE FOG AT TIMES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL INSERT PATCHY FOG FOR NOW ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES.
SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL
PLACE THE SLIGHT DIVERGENCE AREA OVER THE NORTH HALF ZONES ON
TUESDAY BUT SLIGHT TO NIL VEERING WINDS WILL BE PRESENT FROM SURF
TO 700MB BEFORE THE WAVE. MOISTURE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ALSO WITH
1.4 INCHES OVER THE NORTH ZONES TUESDAY MORNING ...THEN SOUTH
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SURF BASE AND MID LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING UP TO 1500J/KG.
ERGO...CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT BUT WAVE WILL BECOME STRETCHED
AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY AND TUESDAY AND SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH/CLEAR
THE LAND AREA BY 12Z WED.


.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
EAST GULF CREATING A WEAK SOUTH FLOW OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH PLAINS AND SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY YIELD A SOUTH FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT
APPROACH THE AREA BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM...FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...WILL
TAP DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND CREATE A SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL THE LAST FEW HOURS WHEN A PATCH
OF LIFR CLOUDS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BTR TO MCB. OTHERWISE...FEW
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE...SO HAVE INCLUDED
4SM BR AT A FEW TAF AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING 10-14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING ON MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE TRACKS
WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UP UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT EXPECT PRETTY BENIGN CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS BACK EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  58  79  58 /  10  10  40  10
BTR  83  60  84  58 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  78  59  79  59 /  10  10  30  10
MSY  78  62  79  64 /  10  10  30  10
GPT  74  62  77  61 /  10  10  30  10
PQL  74  56  77  60 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 210458
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1158 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG...SO HAVE INCLUDED 4SM BR AT A FEW TAF AIRPORTS FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING 10-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND DISSIPATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION DURING THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKY AND VISIBILITY AROUND 10 MILES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z. PATCHY FOG LOWERING VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES
MAY FORM AFTER 06Z ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A KBTR...KMCB LINE. DUE
TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE AND LACK OF CLOUD
COVER...THE PATCHY FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY 14 TO 15Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 15Z THROUGH 00Z.

MARINE...
EAST WINDS 10 KNOTS AREA EXPECTED TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY EVENING
AND SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND BECOMES STATIONARY ON TUESDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND ABOUT 1 FOOT IN PROTECTED BAYS AND LAKES.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT MONITORING RIVER FLOODING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  80  59  79 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  57  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  30
ASD  57  78  60  79 /   0  10  10  30
MSY  61  78  62  79 /   0  10  10  30
GPT  60  76  62  77 /   0  10  10  30
PQL  54  76  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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