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000
FXUS64 KLIX 010140
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
ONE THAT HAD BEEN MODIFIED LOCALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN IN THE AREA. THERE WAS AN INVERSION
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER JUST BELOW 85O MB. THE SOUNDING
ALSO INDICATED THAT SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAD TAKEN PLACE IN THE 875
TO 550 MB LAYER WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED AT 12Z. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE HAD DECREASED TO 1.53 INCHES...DOWN FROM
1.93 INCHES THIS MORNING. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN US WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE
GENERATED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD POOLS. THE MOST
NOTABLE BOUNDARY IS OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS OR COLD
POOLS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.

SHORT TERM...(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)...

THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ROTATING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON) AND AM CARRYING CHANCE POPS (AROUND 50%) AREA WIDE.
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EAST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS
TO TRY AND BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MAY SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
I-59 OVER THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 90S MOST OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE WORK WEEK WILL END WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS AVERAGING AROUND 30% THIS WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WEATHER TO
BECOME HOTTER WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL REMAIN IN
TAF WITH TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT
KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM
WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN. EXPECT MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND
15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS THRU
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. MONITOR CONVECTIVE
             TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  10  10
BTR  74  91  76  93 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  76  91  77  92 /  50  50  10  20
MSY  77  91  78  92 /  50  50  10  10
GPT  77  89  78  91 /  50  40  20  30
PQL  75  89  77  91 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010140
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...BUT
ONE THAT HAD BEEN MODIFIED LOCALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY EARLIER
CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN IN THE AREA. THERE WAS AN INVERSION
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER JUST BELOW 85O MB. THE SOUNDING
ALSO INDICATED THAT SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAD TAKEN PLACE IN THE 875
TO 550 MB LAYER WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED AT 12Z. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE HAD DECREASED TO 1.53 INCHES...DOWN FROM
1.93 INCHES THIS MORNING. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN US WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE
GENERATED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD POOLS. THE MOST
NOTABLE BOUNDARY IS OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS OR COLD
POOLS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.

SHORT TERM...(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)...

THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ROTATING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON) AND AM CARRYING CHANCE POPS (AROUND 50%) AREA WIDE.
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EAST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS
TO TRY AND BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MAY SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
I-59 OVER THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 90S MOST OF THE
AREA.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE WORK WEEK WILL END WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS AVERAGING AROUND 30% THIS WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WEATHER TO
BECOME HOTTER WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL REMAIN IN
TAF WITH TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT
KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM
WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN. EXPECT MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND
15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS THRU
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. MONITOR CONVECTIVE
             TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  10  10
BTR  74  91  76  93 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  76  91  77  92 /  50  50  10  20
MSY  77  91  78  92 /  50  50  10  10
GPT  77  89  78  91 /  50  40  20  30
PQL  75  89  77  91 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 302114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN US WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA HAVE
GENERATED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/COLD POOLS. THE MOST
NOTABLE BOUNDARY IS OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI MOVING SOUTHWEST FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PUSHED INTO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS OR COLD
POOLS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)...

THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ROTATING AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY (ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON) AND AM CARRYING CHANCE POPS (AROUND 50%) AREA WIDE.
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EAST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH BEGINS
TO TRY AND BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE ONLY AREA THAT
MAY SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
I-59 OVER THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 90S MOST OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE WORK WEEK WILL END WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY PROMOTE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POPS AVERAGING AROUND 30% THIS WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WEATHER TO
BECOME HOTTER WITH LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S.

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL REMAIN IN
TAF WITH TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT
KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM
WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN. EXPECT MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND
15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS THRU
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. MONITOR CONVECTIVE
             TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  10  10
BTR  74  91  76  93 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  76  91  77  92 /  50  50  10  20
MSY  77  91  78  92 /  50  50  10  10
GPT  77  89  78  91 /  50  40  20  30
PQL  75  89  77  91 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

MARINE/AVIATION...18
REST OF DISCUSSION...ANSORGE

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 301857
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
157 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL REMAIN IN
TAF WITH TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT
KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM
WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 301857
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
157 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL REMAIN IN
TAF WITH TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT
KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM
WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 301857
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
157 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL REMAIN IN
TAF WITH TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT
KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM
WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300831
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE...EXERTING INFLUENCE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDE UPPER TROF COVERS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY...THE REMNANTS OF AN EVENING
MCS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE EVENING MCS IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS NEVER
REACHED. THOSE AREAS STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH HAVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF TODAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...A REPEAT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA PER SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD A BIT WESTWARD ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION MENTION ON THURSDAY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 90
MARK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURE BUSTS WHERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY. THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THAN CURRENTLY...SO AREAL COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST DAY OR TWO...BUT STILL
IN CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90
TO 95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 70S SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB
WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 17

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN. EXPECT MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WEDNESDAY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET. 17

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. MONITOR CONVECTIVE
             TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  72  90  74 /  50  20  40  10
BTR  91  73  91  76 /  40  20  40  10
ASD  90  76  91  77 /  40  20  40  10
MSY  91  76  91  78 /  30  20  50  10
GPT  89  77  89  78 /  50  20  30  20
PQL  89  74  89  77 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300831
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE...EXERTING INFLUENCE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDE UPPER TROF COVERS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY...THE REMNANTS OF AN EVENING
MCS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE EVENING MCS IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS NEVER
REACHED. THOSE AREAS STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH HAVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF TODAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...A REPEAT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA PER SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD A BIT WESTWARD ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION MENTION ON THURSDAY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 90
MARK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURE BUSTS WHERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY. THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THAN CURRENTLY...SO AREAL COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST DAY OR TWO...BUT STILL
IN CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90
TO 95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 70S SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB
WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 17

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN. EXPECT MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WEDNESDAY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET. 17

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. MONITOR CONVECTIVE
             TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  72  90  74 /  50  20  40  10
BTR  91  73  91  76 /  40  20  40  10
ASD  90  76  91  77 /  40  20  40  10
MSY  91  76  91  78 /  30  20  50  10
GPT  89  77  89  78 /  50  20  30  20
PQL  89  74  89  77 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300831
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE...EXERTING INFLUENCE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDE UPPER TROF COVERS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY...THE REMNANTS OF AN EVENING
MCS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE EVENING MCS IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS NEVER
REACHED. THOSE AREAS STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH HAVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF TODAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...A REPEAT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA PER SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD A BIT WESTWARD ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION MENTION ON THURSDAY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 90
MARK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURE BUSTS WHERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY. THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THAN CURRENTLY...SO AREAL COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST DAY OR TWO...BUT STILL
IN CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90
TO 95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 70S SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB
WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 17

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN. EXPECT MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WEDNESDAY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET. 17

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. MONITOR CONVECTIVE
             TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  72  90  74 /  50  20  40  10
BTR  91  73  91  76 /  40  20  40  10
ASD  90  76  91  77 /  40  20  40  10
MSY  91  76  91  78 /  30  20  50  10
GPT  89  77  89  78 /  50  20  30  20
PQL  89  74  89  77 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300831
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE...EXERTING INFLUENCE OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDE UPPER TROF COVERS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER UTAH.
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY...THE REMNANTS OF AN EVENING
MCS ARE PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY RADAR OVER SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE EVENING MCS IS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS NEVER
REACHED. THOSE AREAS STILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH HAVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF TODAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...A REPEAT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA PER SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD A BIT WESTWARD ON THURSDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NAM AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION MENTION ON THURSDAY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE 90
MARK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW TEMPERATURE BUSTS WHERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY. THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGHS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THAN CURRENTLY...SO AREAL COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY
FORCED CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST DAY OR TWO...BUT STILL
IN CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90
TO 95 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 70S SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH THE
PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDE TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB
WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 17

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN. EXPECT MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WEDNESDAY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET. 17

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. MONITOR CONVECTIVE
             TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  72  90  74 /  50  20  40  10
BTR  91  73  91  76 /  40  20  40  10
ASD  90  76  91  77 /  40  20  40  10
MSY  91  76  91  78 /  30  20  50  10
GPT  89  77  89  78 /  50  20  30  20
PQL  89  74  89  77 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
747 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
2100 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AT ABOUT 6.7 C/KM. STORMS
WERE MARGINALLY SEVERE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING...
BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT
1.93 INCHES AND WINDS ARE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE BORGNE WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BATON ROUGE AT 3PM.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE RAIN-COOLED MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER
FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT OCCURRED.

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS ALL BUT WASHED OUT
NOW. HOWEVER...VORITICTY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE
AS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY OR A BIT LOWER. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ANSORGE

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EXPAND OVER THE
PLAINS WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE DRIEST DAYS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING AN INCREASE OF POPS OVER OUR AREA COMPARED
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COULD
OCCUR IF RAIN DOESN`T COOL THE AIR. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
LATER NEXT WEEK FOR OUR AREA IF THIS SOLUTIONS PERSISTS.

ANSORGE

AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 18

MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. EXPECT
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER
SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR
WEST THIS EVENING THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.
18

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  73  90 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  40
ASD  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  40  20  40
GPT  76  89  78  89 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  75  89  75  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
747 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
2100 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AT ABOUT 6.7 C/KM. STORMS
WERE MARGINALLY SEVERE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING...
BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT
1.93 INCHES AND WINDS ARE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE BORGNE WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BATON ROUGE AT 3PM.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE RAIN-COOLED MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER
FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT OCCURRED.

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS ALL BUT WASHED OUT
NOW. HOWEVER...VORITICTY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE
AS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY OR A BIT LOWER. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ANSORGE

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EXPAND OVER THE
PLAINS WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE DRIEST DAYS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING AN INCREASE OF POPS OVER OUR AREA COMPARED
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COULD
OCCUR IF RAIN DOESN`T COOL THE AIR. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
LATER NEXT WEEK FOR OUR AREA IF THIS SOLUTIONS PERSISTS.

ANSORGE

AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 18

MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. EXPECT
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER
SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR
WEST THIS EVENING THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.
18

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  73  90 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  40
ASD  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  40  20  40
GPT  76  89  78  89 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  75  89  75  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
747 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
2100 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AT ABOUT 6.7 C/KM. STORMS
WERE MARGINALLY SEVERE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING...
BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT
1.93 INCHES AND WINDS ARE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE BORGNE WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BATON ROUGE AT 3PM.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE RAIN-COOLED MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER
FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT OCCURRED.

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS ALL BUT WASHED OUT
NOW. HOWEVER...VORITICTY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE
AS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY OR A BIT LOWER. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ANSORGE

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EXPAND OVER THE
PLAINS WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE DRIEST DAYS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING AN INCREASE OF POPS OVER OUR AREA COMPARED
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COULD
OCCUR IF RAIN DOESN`T COOL THE AIR. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
LATER NEXT WEEK FOR OUR AREA IF THIS SOLUTIONS PERSISTS.

ANSORGE

AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 18

MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. EXPECT
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER
SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR
WEST THIS EVENING THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.
18

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  73  90 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  40
ASD  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  40  20  40
GPT  76  89  78  89 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  75  89  75  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
747 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
2100 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AT ABOUT 6.7 C/KM. STORMS
WERE MARGINALLY SEVERE NORTH OF THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING...
BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
EARLY TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT
1.93 INCHES AND WINDS ARE WESTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE BORGNE WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BATON ROUGE AT 3PM.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE RAIN-COOLED MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER
FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT OCCURRED.

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS ALL BUT WASHED OUT
NOW. HOWEVER...VORITICTY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE
AS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY OR A BIT LOWER. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ANSORGE

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EXPAND OVER THE
PLAINS WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE DRIEST DAYS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING AN INCREASE OF POPS OVER OUR AREA COMPARED
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COULD
OCCUR IF RAIN DOESN`T COOL THE AIR. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
LATER NEXT WEEK FOR OUR AREA IF THIS SOLUTIONS PERSISTS.

ANSORGE

AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 18

MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. EXPECT
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER
SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR
WEST THIS EVENING THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.
18

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  73  90 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  40
ASD  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  40  20  40
GPT  76  89  78  89 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  75  89  75  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 292105
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE BORGNE WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BATON ROUGE AT 3PM.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE RAIN-COOLED MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER
FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT OCCURRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS ALL BUT WASHED OUT
NOW. HOWEVER...VORITICTY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE
AS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY OR A BIT LOWER. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ANSORGE

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EXPAND OVER THE
PLAINS WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE DRIEST DAYS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING AN INCREASE OF POPS OVER OUR AREA COMPARED
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COULD
OCCUR IF RAIN DOESN`T COOL THE AIR. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
LATER NEXT WEEK FOR OUR AREA IF THIS SOLUTIONS PERSISTS.

ANSORGE

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 18

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. EXPECT
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER
SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR
WEST THIS EVENING THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.
18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  73  90 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  40
ASD  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  40  20  40
GPT  76  89  78  89 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  75  89  75  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 292105
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES ARE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND LAKE BORGNE WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BATON ROUGE AT 3PM.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE RAIN-COOLED MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S OVER
FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT OCCURRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLIER TODAY IS ALL BUT WASHED OUT
NOW. HOWEVER...VORITICTY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE
AS NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...BUT
HAVE MAINTAINED POPS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY OR A BIT LOWER. HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

ANSORGE

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL EXPAND OVER THE
PLAINS WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATER THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE DRIEST DAYS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS WEEKEND AND BRING AN INCREASE OF POPS OVER OUR AREA COMPARED
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL COULD
OCCUR IF RAIN DOESN`T COOL THE AIR. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE ROCKIES MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD MEAN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
LATER NEXT WEEK FOR OUR AREA IF THIS SOLUTIONS PERSISTS.

ANSORGE

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO WILL
INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 18

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THEREFORE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY. EXPECT
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER
SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR
WEST THIS EVENING THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET.
18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
 TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  89  73  90 /  20  50  20  40
BTR  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  40
ASD  75  90  76  91 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  40  20  40
GPT  76  89  78  89 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  75  89  75  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 291759
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1259 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED...SO INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA
IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 291759
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1259 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED...SO INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA
IN MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 23Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KMCB WHERE
IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING/MAINLY FROM
LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 290843
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND MISSOURI THIS
MORNING. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE AXIS OF AN
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. ONE LARGE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AT 3 AM ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S. DRIER AIR IS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY VERY FAR FROM
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE CONVECTION EARLIER THAN 18Z. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND
THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF THERE ARE
TO BE ANY DRY DAYS DURING THE WEEK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR THAT TO OCCUR AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. IMPULSES AGAIN MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO SNEAK A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK. BEYOND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...SOME INDICATIONS THAT ROCKIES RIDGE MAY BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WOULD LIKELY MEAN DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF IT
VERIFIES. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
AT KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT OR
TWO...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS
TIME. BETTER PROBABILITIES OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE
ANTICIPATED...SO INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN MOST OF THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT
AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS WILL VARY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR WEST TODAY THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  72  89  73 /  30  20  40  20
BTR  89  74  91  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  89  75  90  76 /  40  20  40  20
MSY  89  76  91  77 /  50  20  40  20
GPT  88  76  90  78 /  30  20  40  20
PQL  89  74  90  75 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 290843
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND MISSOURI THIS
MORNING. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE AXIS OF AN
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. ONE LARGE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AT 3 AM ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S. DRIER AIR IS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY VERY FAR FROM
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE CONVECTION EARLIER THAN 18Z. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND
THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF THERE ARE
TO BE ANY DRY DAYS DURING THE WEEK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR THAT TO OCCUR AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. IMPULSES AGAIN MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO SNEAK A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK. BEYOND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...SOME INDICATIONS THAT ROCKIES RIDGE MAY BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WOULD LIKELY MEAN DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF IT
VERIFIES. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
AT KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT OR
TWO...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS
TIME. BETTER PROBABILITIES OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE
ANTICIPATED...SO INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN MOST OF THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT
AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS WILL VARY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR WEST TODAY THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  72  89  73 /  30  20  40  20
BTR  89  74  91  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  89  75  90  76 /  40  20  40  20
MSY  89  76  91  77 /  50  20  40  20
GPT  88  76  90  78 /  30  20  40  20
PQL  89  74  90  75 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 290843
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND MISSOURI THIS
MORNING. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH THE AXIS OF AN
UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA. ONE LARGE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WITH
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AT 3 AM ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S. DRIER AIR IS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO STRAY VERY FAR FROM
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A FEW TEMPERATURE BUSTS IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE CONVECTION EARLIER THAN 18Z. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE AND
THE BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF THERE ARE
TO BE ANY DRY DAYS DURING THE WEEK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY DAYS FOR THAT TO OCCUR AS BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. IMPULSES AGAIN MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO SNEAK A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK. BEYOND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...SOME INDICATIONS THAT ROCKIES RIDGE MAY BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WOULD LIKELY MEAN DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT HOTTER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IF IT
VERIFIES. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
AT KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
/MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT OR
TWO...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS
TIME. BETTER PROBABILITIES OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE
ANTICIPATED...SO INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN MOST OF THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXTENDING WEST FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME BERMUDA
RIDGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE
EASTERLIES...NOR ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OR LOWS PASSING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THAT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WINDS AND
WAVES. THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT
AROUND 15 KNOTS WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS
TODAY...TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS WILL VARY FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR WEST TODAY THEN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO
OCCASIONALLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 FEET. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON
 MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING AND BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  72  89  73 /  30  20  40  20
BTR  89  74  91  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  89  75  90  76 /  40  20  40  20
MSY  89  76  91  77 /  50  20  40  20
GPT  88  76  90  78 /  30  20  40  20
PQL  89  74  90  75 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 290550
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL
BE AT KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING /MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT
KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT AN AIRPORT OR TWO...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. BETTER PROBABILITIES OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED...SO INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN
MOST OF THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
1400 J/KG. PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED... THOUGH STILL A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED STORMS OVERNIGHT. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.93
INCHES. WINDS ARE WESTERLY THOUGH THE PROFILE.
KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DAMPENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MS WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING TO NEAR 70 IN MCB AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH CONVECTION
REFIRING DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT.....WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHWEST IN SW MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...WITH MORNING LOWS A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THESE AREAS.

FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS AREA ON
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES
DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST MS AND
THEN PROGRESSIVE HIGHER TO THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MON.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHING OUT AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...20 PCT POPS...AND WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.  21

LONG TERM...
WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WITH
700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN S AND SW AS LOW RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND S TO SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FINAL RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.  21

AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND
FLOW THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STARTING WINDS OVER THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
21

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  89  72  89 /  20  40  10  30
BTR  75  91  74  90 /  20  40  10  30
ASD  74  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  30
MSY  77  90  76  90 /  20  30  20  30
GPT  76  89  77  88 /  20  30  20  40
PQL  74  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 290550
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL
BE AT KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING /MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT
KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT AN AIRPORT OR TWO...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. BETTER PROBABILITIES OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED...SO INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN
MOST OF THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
1400 J/KG. PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED... THOUGH STILL A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED STORMS OVERNIGHT. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.93
INCHES. WINDS ARE WESTERLY THOUGH THE PROFILE.
KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DAMPENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MS WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING TO NEAR 70 IN MCB AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH CONVECTION
REFIRING DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT.....WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHWEST IN SW MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...WITH MORNING LOWS A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THESE AREAS.

FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS AREA ON
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES
DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST MS AND
THEN PROGRESSIVE HIGHER TO THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MON.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHING OUT AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...20 PCT POPS...AND WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.  21

LONG TERM...
WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WITH
700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN S AND SW AS LOW RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND S TO SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FINAL RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.  21

AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND
FLOW THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STARTING WINDS OVER THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
21

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  89  72  89 /  20  40  10  30
BTR  75  91  74  90 /  20  40  10  30
ASD  74  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  30
MSY  77  90  76  90 /  20  30  20  30
GPT  76  89  77  88 /  20  30  20  40
PQL  74  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 290550
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL
BE AT KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING /MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT
KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT AN AIRPORT OR TWO...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. BETTER PROBABILITIES OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED...SO INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN
MOST OF THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
1400 J/KG. PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED... THOUGH STILL A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED STORMS OVERNIGHT. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.93
INCHES. WINDS ARE WESTERLY THOUGH THE PROFILE.
KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DAMPENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MS WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING TO NEAR 70 IN MCB AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH CONVECTION
REFIRING DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT.....WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHWEST IN SW MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...WITH MORNING LOWS A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THESE AREAS.

FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS AREA ON
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES
DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST MS AND
THEN PROGRESSIVE HIGHER TO THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MON.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHING OUT AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...20 PCT POPS...AND WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.  21

LONG TERM...
WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WITH
700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN S AND SW AS LOW RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND S TO SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FINAL RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.  21

AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND
FLOW THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STARTING WINDS OVER THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
21

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  89  72  89 /  20  40  10  30
BTR  75  91  74  90 /  20  40  10  30
ASD  74  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  30
MSY  77  90  76  90 /  20  30  20  30
GPT  76  89  77  88 /  20  30  20  40
PQL  74  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 290550
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXCEPTIONS WILL
BE AT KMCB WHERE IFR/LIFR WILL BE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING /MAINLY FROM LOW STRATUS/...AND AT
KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT COULD BRIEFLY
IMPACT AN AIRPORT OR TWO...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME. BETTER PROBABILITIES OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED...SO INCLUDED PROB30 TSRA IN
MOST OF THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
1400 J/KG. PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED... THOUGH STILL A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED STORMS OVERNIGHT. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.93
INCHES. WINDS ARE WESTERLY THOUGH THE PROFILE.
KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DAMPENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MS WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING TO NEAR 70 IN MCB AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH CONVECTION
REFIRING DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT.....WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHWEST IN SW MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...WITH MORNING LOWS A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THESE AREAS.

FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS AREA ON
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES
DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST MS AND
THEN PROGRESSIVE HIGHER TO THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MON.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHING OUT AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...20 PCT POPS...AND WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.  21

LONG TERM...
WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WITH
700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN S AND SW AS LOW RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND S TO SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FINAL RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.  21

AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND
FLOW THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STARTING WINDS OVER THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
21

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  89  72  89 /  20  40  10  30
BTR  75  91  74  90 /  20  40  10  30
ASD  74  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  30
MSY  77  90  76  90 /  20  30  20  30
GPT  76  89  77  88 /  20  30  20  40
PQL  74  90  74  90 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 290200
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
900 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
1400 J/KG. PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED... THOUGH STILL A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED STORMS OVERNIGHT. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.93
INCHES. WINDS ARE WESTERLY THOUGH THE PROFILE.
KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DAMPENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MS WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING TO NEAR 70 IN MCB AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH CONVECTION
REFIRING DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT.....WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHWEST IN SW MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...WITH MORNING LOWS A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THESE AREAS.

FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS AREA ON
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES
DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST MS AND
THEN PROGRESSIVE HIGHER TO THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MON.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHING OUT AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...20 PCT POPS...AND WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.  21

LONG TERM...
WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WITH
700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN S AND SW AS LOW RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND S TO SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FINAL RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.  21

AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND
FLOW THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STARTING WINDS OVER THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
21

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  89  73  89 /  10  30  20  40
BTR  73  90  75  91 /  30  40  20  40
ASD  71  90  74  90 /  30  40  20  30
MSY  75  90  77  90 /  30  40  20  30
GPT  74  88  76  89 /  30  40  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 290200
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
900 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE AT
1400 J/KG. PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED... THOUGH STILL A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED STORMS OVERNIGHT. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.93
INCHES. WINDS ARE WESTERLY THOUGH THE PROFILE.
KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DAMPENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MS WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING TO NEAR 70 IN MCB AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH CONVECTION
REFIRING DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT.....WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHWEST IN SW MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...WITH MORNING LOWS A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THESE AREAS.

FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS AREA ON
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES
DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST MS AND
THEN PROGRESSIVE HIGHER TO THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MON.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHING OUT AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...20 PCT POPS...AND WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.  21

LONG TERM...
WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WITH
700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN S AND SW AS LOW RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND S TO SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FINAL RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.  21

AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

MARINE...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND
FLOW THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STARTING WINDS OVER THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
21

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  89  73  89 /  10  30  20  40
BTR  73  90  75  91 /  30  40  20  40
ASD  71  90  74  90 /  30  40  20  30
MSY  75  90  77  90 /  30  40  20  30
GPT  74  88  76  89 /  30  40  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 282016
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
BROAD LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DAMPENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MS WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING TO NEAR 70 IN MCB AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH CONVECTION
REFIRING DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT.....WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHWEST IN SW MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...WITH MORNING LOWS A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THESE AREAS.

FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS AREA ON
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES
DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST MS AND
THEN PROGRESSIVE HIGHER TO THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MON.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHING OUT AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...20 PCT POPS...AND WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.  21

.LONG TERM...
WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WITH
700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN S AND SW AS LOW RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND S TO SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FINAL RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.  21

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

&&

.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND
FLOW THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STARTING WINDS OVER THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
21

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  89  73  89 /  10  30  20  40
BTR  73  90  75  91 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  71  90  74  90 /  30  40  20  30
MSY  75  90  77  90 /  30  40  20  30
GPT  74  88  76  89 /  30  40  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 282016
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
BROAD LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DAMPENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MS WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING TO NEAR 70 IN MCB AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH CONVECTION
REFIRING DUE TO SURFACE HEATING AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL
ZONES. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT.....WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHWEST IN SW MS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...WITH MORNING LOWS A
BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THESE AREAS.

FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS AREA ON
MONDAY...AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES
DESTABILIZATION. RAIN CHANCE WILL BE LOWEST IN SOUTHWEST MS AND
THEN PROGRESSIVE HIGHER TO THE COAST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MON.

MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DAMPEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD AS
WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WASHING OUT AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...20 PCT POPS...AND WARMER TEMPS ON
MONDAY...MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.  21

.LONG TERM...
WHILE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF WITH
700 AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN S AND SW AS LOW RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND S TO SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW...FINAL RESULT OF THESE CHANGES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.  21

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

&&

.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER LA
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND
FLOW THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION IN PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN COASTAL WATERS FOR 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO STARTING WINDS OVER THE REGION.
WIND SPEEDS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
21

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  89  73  89 /  10  30  20  40
BTR  73  90  75  91 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  71  90  74  90 /  30  40  20  30
MSY  75  90  77  90 /  30  40  20  30
GPT  74  88  76  89 /  30  40  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 281746
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  69  88  73 /  30  10  40  20
BTR  88  72  89  75 /  40  30  40  20
ASD  88  73  89  74 /  50  40  40  20
MSY  87  76  89  77 /  60  40  50  20
GPT  86  75  87  76 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  88  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 281746
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  69  88  73 /  30  10  40  20
BTR  88  72  89  75 /  40  30  40  20
ASD  88  73  89  74 /  50  40  40  20
MSY  87  76  89  77 /  60  40  50  20
GPT  86  75  87  76 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  88  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 281746
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  69  88  73 /  30  10  40  20
BTR  88  72  89  75 /  40  30  40  20
ASD  88  73  89  74 /  50  40  40  20
MSY  87  76  89  77 /  60  40  50  20
GPT  86  75  87  76 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  88  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 281746
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12/10 CORRIDOR. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  69  88  73 /  30  10  40  20
BTR  88  72  89  75 /  40  30  40  20
ASD  88  73  89  74 /  50  40  40  20
MSY  87  76  89  77 /  60  40  50  20
GPT  86  75  87  76 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  88  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 280909
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COURTESY A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL LA/MS. WATCHING CLOSE OVERNIGHT FOR ANY
PROBLEM AREAS DUE TO TRAINING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES MOST OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND BECOMES DEFUSE. SW MS AREAS AROUND
KMCB WILL GET SOME SUBTLE RELIEF AS THE DEW POINT IS PROGGED TO
DROP TO 65 PER GFS AND 67 ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY AREAS
SOUTH OF THERE WONT FEEL TOO MUCH RELIEF IF ANY AT ALL.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR CORAL PINK UT. THIS STRONG RIDGE IS
CAUSING THE HEAT WAVE IN THE W CONUS. IN THE EAST... A TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE ERIE AREA. BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE TROUGH LIES THE STORM TRACK WITH PERTURBATIONS
CAUSING SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INCLUDING ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /KEG/

.LONG TERM...
THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST FLATTENING OUT THE
PATTERN THU/FRI. THE RIDGE IN THE WCONUS RETROGRADES WEST TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER RENO. THE RESULT WILL BE TO MOVE THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.
DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY AS RAISED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN. LOOKS TO PRETTY HOT TOWARDS THE END 0F THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. /KEG/

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME AREAS OF LOW IFR CIGS MAY IMPACT KBTR-KMCB AT TIMES EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AWAY
FROM THE SHRA/TSRA. TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MANY AIRPORTS
SOUTH OF I-10 IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA COULD IMPACT A FEW
AIRPORTS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS AND UPDATE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES NOT HAVE ANY COOLER OR DRIER AIR THAT
WILL REACH THE COASTAL AREAS AND WATERS IN THE NEAR TERM. A SLIGHT
NORTHWEST COMPONENT OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES AND AREAS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND
CHANDELEUR SOUNDS. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 18 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FEET.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO STARTING EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH INTO
COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY 10 TO
15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN VARYING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO
OCCASIONALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  69  88  73 /  30  10  40  20
BTR  88  72  89  75 /  40  30  40  20
ASD  88  73  89  74 /  50  40  40  20
MSY  87  76  89  77 /  60  40  50  20
GPT  86  75  87  76 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  88  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 280909
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION COURTESY A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL LA/MS. WATCHING CLOSE OVERNIGHT FOR ANY
PROBLEM AREAS DUE TO TRAINING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES MOST OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH AND BECOMES DEFUSE. SW MS AREAS AROUND
KMCB WILL GET SOME SUBTLE RELIEF AS THE DEW POINT IS PROGGED TO
DROP TO 65 PER GFS AND 67 ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY AREAS
SOUTH OF THERE WONT FEEL TOO MUCH RELIEF IF ANY AT ALL.

IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR CORAL PINK UT. THIS STRONG RIDGE IS
CAUSING THE HEAT WAVE IN THE W CONUS. IN THE EAST... A TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE ERIE AREA. BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE TROUGH LIES THE STORM TRACK WITH PERTURBATIONS
CAUSING SOME INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INCLUDING ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /KEG/

.LONG TERM...
THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST FLATTENING OUT THE
PATTERN THU/FRI. THE RIDGE IN THE WCONUS RETROGRADES WEST TO
BECOME CENTERED OVER RENO. THE RESULT WILL BE TO MOVE THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.
DROPPED POPS ACCORDINGLY AS RAISED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN. LOOKS TO PRETTY HOT TOWARDS THE END 0F THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. /KEG/

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME AREAS OF LOW IFR CIGS MAY IMPACT KBTR-KMCB AT TIMES EARLY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AWAY
FROM THE SHRA/TSRA. TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MANY AIRPORTS
SOUTH OF I-10 IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA COULD IMPACT A FEW
AIRPORTS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS AND UPDATE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE IMPACTS.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES NOT HAVE ANY COOLER OR DRIER AIR THAT
WILL REACH THE COASTAL AREAS AND WATERS IN THE NEAR TERM. A SLIGHT
NORTHWEST COMPONENT OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE TIDAL LAKES AND AREAS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI AND
CHANDELEUR SOUNDS. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 18 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN COASTAL
WATERS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FEET.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO STARTING EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH INTO
COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY 10 TO
15 KNOTS EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN VARYING FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO
OCCASIONALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  69  88  73 /  30  10  40  20
BTR  88  72  89  75 /  40  30  40  20
ASD  88  73  89  74 /  50  40  40  20
MSY  87  76  89  77 /  60  40  50  20
GPT  86  75  87  76 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  88  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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