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000
FXUS64 KLIX 280423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY...FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DURING
THIS PERIOD TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  94  69  89 /  10  40  30  10
BTR  76  97  70  94 /  10  40  40  30
ASD  76  94  74  90 /  10  40  40  20
MSY  77  93  75  89 /  20  30  40  40
GPT  81  93  74  89 /  10  40  40  10
PQL  75  93  73  89 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 280423
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY...FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS DURING
THIS PERIOD TO COVER THE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  94  69  89 /  10  40  30  10
BTR  76  97  70  94 /  10  40  40  30
ASD  76  94  74  90 /  10  40  40  20
MSY  77  93  75  89 /  20  30  40  40
GPT  81  93  74  89 /  10  40  40  10
PQL  75  93  73  89 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 272043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONSIDERABLY LIGHT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CONFINED
TO GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEW IBERIA TO THIBODAUX TO CHALMETTE.
DEEP LAYERED WESTERLIES ARE INHIBITING INLAND PENETRATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND MUCH OF WHAT IS OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE...CONTINENTAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
INDIANA TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL GAIN MORE TROUGHING ALOFT TO
SEND THE FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING ARRIVAL INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF CWA PRIOR TO SUNSET THEN MOVING TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THIS IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING FORECAST.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING IN SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS STILL SHOW FRONT CLEARING THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY BUT ARE MORE IN CONSENSUS WITH KEEPING
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF BEFORE DRAWING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER IMPULSE EJECTS
FROM THE WEST THAT WILL LIKELY INDUCE A WAVE UPON THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER EAST TEXAS TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SO WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD
PRIOR TO RETURNING TO A WET PATTERN LATE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING AROUND 4000
FEET WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 02Z. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AFTER 02Z...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT FOG TO KMCB AND KHUM AFTER 08Z. THIS FOG WILL LINGER
THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES
WARM. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 13Z
THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW AS ANOTHER CU FIELD DEVELOPS. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 16Z.  AFTER 18Z...CONVECTIVE RISK
INCREASES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.  VCTS WORDING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 32

&&

.MARINE...
A LITTLE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WILL BRING
THE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND WATERS EAST OF THE
RIVER. THESE ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN
LIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT TAKES PLACE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
HIGH GUSTS AN GENERATE LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR
GETS TRANSPORTED TO THE WARM WATER SURFACE. FRONTAL ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE RATHER QUICKLY AND WIND FIELD FLATTENS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  94  69  89 /  10  40  30  10
BTR  76  97  70  94 /  10  40  40  30
ASD  76  94  74  90 /  10  40  40  20
MSY  77  93  75  89 /  20  30  40  40
GPT  81  93  74  89 /  10  40  40  10
PQL  75  93  73  89 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 272043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONSIDERABLY LIGHT RADAR COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CONFINED
TO GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEW IBERIA TO THIBODAUX TO CHALMETTE.
DEEP LAYERED WESTERLIES ARE INHIBITING INLAND PENETRATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND MUCH OF WHAT IS OUT THERE WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. MEANWHILE...CONTINENTAL COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
INDIANA TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL GAIN MORE TROUGHING ALOFT TO
SEND THE FRONT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING ARRIVAL INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF CWA PRIOR TO SUNSET THEN MOVING TO THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. THIS IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING FORECAST.
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING IN SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS STILL SHOW FRONT CLEARING THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY BUT ARE MORE IN CONSENSUS WITH KEEPING
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF BEFORE DRAWING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER IMPULSE EJECTS
FROM THE WEST THAT WILL LIKELY INDUCE A WAVE UPON THE SURFACE
FRONT OVER EAST TEXAS TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SO WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD
PRIOR TO RETURNING TO A WET PATTERN LATE THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING AROUND 4000
FEET WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 02Z. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AFTER 02Z...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT FOG TO KMCB AND KHUM AFTER 08Z. THIS FOG WILL LINGER
THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPERATURES
WARM. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 13Z
THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW AS ANOTHER CU FIELD DEVELOPS. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 16Z.  AFTER 18Z...CONVECTIVE RISK
INCREASES AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.  VCTS WORDING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 32

&&

.MARINE...
A LITTLE TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT CURRENTLY UNDERWAY WILL BRING
THE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KT ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND WATERS EAST OF THE
RIVER. THESE ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN
LIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT TAKES PLACE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE
HIGH GUSTS AN GENERATE LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR
GETS TRANSPORTED TO THE WARM WATER SURFACE. FRONTAL ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE RATHER QUICKLY AND WIND FIELD FLATTENS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  94  69  89 /  10  40  30  10
BTR  76  97  70  94 /  10  40  40  30
ASD  76  94  74  90 /  10  40  40  20
MSY  77  93  75  89 /  20  30  40  40
GPT  81  93  74  89 /  10  40  40  10
PQL  75  93  73  89 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32








000
FXUS64 KLIX 271721
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING AROUND
4000 FEET WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER 02Z...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT FOG TO KMCB AND KHUM AFTER 08Z. THIS FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 13Z THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW AS ANOTHER CU FIELD
DEVELOPS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 16Z.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  94  69  89 /  10  40  30  20
BTR  76  97  70  94 /  10  40  40  30
ASD  76  94  74  90 /  10  40  40  20
MSY  77  93  75  89 /  20  30  40  40
GPT  81  93  74  89 /  10  40  40  20
PQL  75  93  73  89 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 271721
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING AROUND
4000 FEET WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 02Z.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER 02Z...BUT A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT FOG TO KMCB AND KHUM AFTER 08Z. THIS FOG WILL
LINGER THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FROM 13Z THROUGH 15Z TOMORROW AS ANOTHER CU FIELD
DEVELOPS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 16Z.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  94  69  89 /  10  40  30  20
BTR  76  97  70  94 /  10  40  40  30
ASD  76  94  74  90 /  10  40  40  20
MSY  77  93  75  89 /  20  30  40  40
GPT  81  93  74  89 /  10  40  40  20
PQL  75  93  73  89 /  20  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 271317
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
817 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING REVEALS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO 700MB AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S SOUNDING.
THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION AS IS TYPICAL ON OUR
MORNING SOUNDING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS GENERALLY 1 DEGREE LOWER OR HIGHER UP TO
ABOUT 700MB. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE FROM THE WEST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS AND THEN VEERED TO BLOWING FROM THE NORTHEAST ABOVE 400MB.
THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS WAS LOCATED 8.55 MILES ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THIS MORNING/S BALLOON DETAILS ARE THAT IT REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 20 MILES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND BURST NORTH OF LAPLACE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SYNOPTIC...RIDGE CNTRD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN NM WITH ONE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE OTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE NW ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS THROUGH UTAH AND TWRDS THE PAC NW. S/W EMBEDDED IN THE NRN
STREAM IS NOW OVER NRN MN. AT THE SFC THE GULF WAS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BASICALLY CNTRD SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WAS DRAPED MOSTLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM WRN CANADA.

SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER QUIET MUGGY NIGHT OVER THE MISSLOU
AREA. RADAR IS NICE AND QUIET BUT TEMPS AT 7Z WERE RANGING FROM 77
TO 83 WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS STILL REPORTING A HEAT INDEX AROUND
90.

ONE MORE MOSTLY QUIET DAY IN STORE BUT LOOK FOR IT TO BE A WARM
MUGGY ONE AGAIN. RIDGE AXIS FROM THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. WILL THE SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW
STORMS...NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT BUT IF ANY CONVECTION OCCURS
IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. H925 TEMPS OF 24-26C
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN AND GIVEN
MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS TO AT LEAST BE EQUAL TO YESTERDAY IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. COMBINE THAT WITH THE RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AND WE COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN
ISLTD LOCATIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.

MON THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. THE MID LVLS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
AND THE RIDGE WILL START TO LOSE SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEPENING ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO SEND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SOUTH
TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER AFTN
CONVECTION MON BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WONT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN MON NIGHT.

AS FOR THE COLD FRONT...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARENT QUITE IN AGREEMENT
LIKE THEY WERE THE PREV NIGHT BUT THE MAJORITY AT LEAST BRING THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT MON AND APPROACHING THE COAST TUE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE MORNING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES WILL DICTATE ON HOW MUCH
DRY AND COOLER AIR PUSHES IN. IF THE FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO NUDGE
SOUTH INTO THE GULF THEN THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COMFORTABLE TUE NIGHT BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS ON THE COAST TUE THEN
TUE NIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN PREV NIGHTS BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL
FOR JULY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH HPC AND THE GFS
AND GOING WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR LOWS WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...MDLS ARE SOMEWHAT ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH EXACT
POSITION OF OUR FRONT. GFS PUSHES IT THROUGH SOUTH OF THE COAST TUE
NIGHT BUT LAYS IT UP OVER SWRN LA AND THEN NUDGES BACK NORTH OVER
THE CWA THU. ECMWF STALLS IT OVER SRN LA TUE AND IT JUST MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE AND REINFORCING FRONT
PUSHES IT INTO THE GULF SAT...YES A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. WITH SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH IT BEING SUMMER AND KIND OF AN UNUSUAL
TIME TO GET COLD FRONTS WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND
APPROACH TO THE FCST WITH A LITTLE WEIGHT GIVEN TWRDS THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS.

WED SHOULD BE DRIER THAN TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND DRIER AIR FINALLY OVER THE REGION. THAT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST PLACES. WED NIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER NICE JULY NIGHT AS LONG AS
THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S COULD LEAD TO MORNING LOWS THU 5 DEGREES OR POSSIBLY MORE BELOW
NORMAL.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS BEGIN TO COME IN FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
NOW WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF FRONT AND ITS INFLUENCE ON TEMPS
AND POPS. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER NW FLOW AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK IMPULSE COMING ACROSS THE REGION AND IF
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT IS OVER THE REGION THEN THERE COULD BE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH. AS FOR TEMPS STILL FEEL LIKE WE WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. EITHER THERE WILL BE DECENT CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION WHICH WILL HURT DAYTIME HEATING EVEN WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP UP IN LL TEMPS OR THE COLD FRONT BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
COOL LL TEMPS OVER THE REGION.

FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH AND THERE IS EVEN SUGGESTIONS FROM THE
MDLS THAT THE TROUGH COULD CLOSE OFF AND DIG SOUTH PROVIDING
CONTINUE COOL WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. /CAB/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z.
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD
RANGING FROM 3000 TO 5000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT WEAKEN
EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 5-13 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK BUT UNUSUAL SUMMERTIME COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  75  91  71 /  10  10  40  30
BTR  95  76  92  74 /  10  10  40  40
ASD  94  76  92  73 /  20  10  40  40
MSY  91  77  92  76 /  20  20  30  40
GPT  94  81  95  77 /  20  10  40  40
PQL  91  75  90  72 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 271317
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
817 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING REVEALS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE UP TO 700MB AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S SOUNDING.
THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION AS IS TYPICAL ON OUR
MORNING SOUNDING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS GENERALLY 1 DEGREE LOWER OR HIGHER UP TO
ABOUT 700MB. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE FROM THE WEST AT ABOUT 15
KNOTS AND THEN VEERED TO BLOWING FROM THE NORTHEAST ABOVE 400MB.
THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS WAS LOCATED 8.55 MILES ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THIS MORNING/S BALLOON DETAILS ARE THAT IT REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 20 MILES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND BURST NORTH OF LAPLACE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SYNOPTIC...RIDGE CNTRD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN NM WITH ONE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE OTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE NW ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS THROUGH UTAH AND TWRDS THE PAC NW. S/W EMBEDDED IN THE NRN
STREAM IS NOW OVER NRN MN. AT THE SFC THE GULF WAS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BASICALLY CNTRD SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WAS DRAPED MOSTLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM WRN CANADA.

SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER QUIET MUGGY NIGHT OVER THE MISSLOU
AREA. RADAR IS NICE AND QUIET BUT TEMPS AT 7Z WERE RANGING FROM 77
TO 83 WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS STILL REPORTING A HEAT INDEX AROUND
90.

ONE MORE MOSTLY QUIET DAY IN STORE BUT LOOK FOR IT TO BE A WARM
MUGGY ONE AGAIN. RIDGE AXIS FROM THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. WILL THE SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW
STORMS...NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT BUT IF ANY CONVECTION OCCURS
IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. H925 TEMPS OF 24-26C
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN AND GIVEN
MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS TO AT LEAST BE EQUAL TO YESTERDAY IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. COMBINE THAT WITH THE RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AND WE COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN
ISLTD LOCATIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.

MON THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. THE MID LVLS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
AND THE RIDGE WILL START TO LOSE SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEPENING ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO SEND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SOUTH
TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER AFTN
CONVECTION MON BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WONT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN MON NIGHT.

AS FOR THE COLD FRONT...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARENT QUITE IN AGREEMENT
LIKE THEY WERE THE PREV NIGHT BUT THE MAJORITY AT LEAST BRING THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT MON AND APPROACHING THE COAST TUE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE MORNING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES WILL DICTATE ON HOW MUCH
DRY AND COOLER AIR PUSHES IN. IF THE FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO NUDGE
SOUTH INTO THE GULF THEN THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COMFORTABLE TUE NIGHT BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS ON THE COAST TUE THEN
TUE NIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN PREV NIGHTS BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL
FOR JULY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH HPC AND THE GFS
AND GOING WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR LOWS WED MORNING.

LONG TERM...MDLS ARE SOMEWHAT ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH EXACT
POSITION OF OUR FRONT. GFS PUSHES IT THROUGH SOUTH OF THE COAST TUE
NIGHT BUT LAYS IT UP OVER SWRN LA AND THEN NUDGES BACK NORTH OVER
THE CWA THU. ECMWF STALLS IT OVER SRN LA TUE AND IT JUST MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE AND REINFORCING FRONT
PUSHES IT INTO THE GULF SAT...YES A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. WITH SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH IT BEING SUMMER AND KIND OF AN UNUSUAL
TIME TO GET COLD FRONTS WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND
APPROACH TO THE FCST WITH A LITTLE WEIGHT GIVEN TWRDS THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS.

WED SHOULD BE DRIER THAN TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND DRIER AIR FINALLY OVER THE REGION. THAT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST PLACES. WED NIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER NICE JULY NIGHT AS LONG AS
THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S COULD LEAD TO MORNING LOWS THU 5 DEGREES OR POSSIBLY MORE BELOW
NORMAL.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS BEGIN TO COME IN FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
NOW WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF FRONT AND ITS INFLUENCE ON TEMPS
AND POPS. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER NW FLOW AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK IMPULSE COMING ACROSS THE REGION AND IF
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT IS OVER THE REGION THEN THERE COULD BE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH. AS FOR TEMPS STILL FEEL LIKE WE WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. EITHER THERE WILL BE DECENT CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION WHICH WILL HURT DAYTIME HEATING EVEN WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP UP IN LL TEMPS OR THE COLD FRONT BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
COOL LL TEMPS OVER THE REGION.

FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH AND THERE IS EVEN SUGGESTIONS FROM THE
MDLS THAT THE TROUGH COULD CLOSE OFF AND DIG SOUTH PROVIDING
CONTINUE COOL WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. /CAB/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z.
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD
RANGING FROM 3000 TO 5000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT WEAKEN
EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 5-13 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK BUT UNUSUAL SUMMERTIME COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  75  91  71 /  10  10  40  30
BTR  95  76  92  74 /  10  10  40  40
ASD  94  76  92  73 /  20  10  40  40
MSY  91  77  92  76 /  20  20  30  40
GPT  94  81  95  77 /  20  10  40  40
PQL  91  75  90  72 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 270831
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPTIC...RIDGE CNTRD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN NM WITH ONE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE OTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE NW ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS THROUGH UTAH AND TWRDS THE PAC NW. S/W EMBEDDED IN THE NRN
STREAM IS NOW OVER NRN MN. AT THE SFC THE GULF WAS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BASICALLY CNTRD SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WAS DRAPED MOSTLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM WRN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER QUIET MUGGY NIGHT OVER THE MISSLOU
AREA. RADAR IS NICE AND QUIET BUT TEMPS AT 7Z WERE RANGING FROM 77
TO 83 WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS STILL REPORTING A HEAT INDEX AROUND
90.

ONE MORE MOSTLY QUIET DAY IN STORE BUT LOOK FOR IT TO BE A WARM
MUGGY ONE AGAIN. RIDGE AXIS FROM THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. WILL THE SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW
STORMS...NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT BUT IF ANY CONVECTION OCCURS
IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. H925 TEMPS OF 24-26C
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN AND GIVEN
MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS TO AT LEAST BE EQUAL TO YESTERDAY IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. COMBINE THAT WITH THE RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AND WE COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN
ISLTD LOCATIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.

MON THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. THE MID LVLS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
AND THE RIDGE WILL START TO LOSE SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEPENING ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO SEND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SOUTH
TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER AFTN
CONVECTION MON BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WONT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN MON NIGHT.

AS FOR THE COLD FRONT...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARENT QUITE IN AGREEMENT
LIKE THEY WERE THE PREV NIGHT BUT THE MAJORITY AT LEAST BRING THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT MON AND APPROACHING THE COAST TUE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE MORNING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES WILL DICTATE ON HOW MUCH
DRY AND COOLER AIR PUSHES IN. IF THE FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO NUDGE
SOUTH INTO THE GULF THEN THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COMFORTABLE TUE NIGHT BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS ON THE COAST TUE THEN
TUE NIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN PREV NIGHTS BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL
FOR JULY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH HPC AND THE GFS
AND GOING WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR LOWS WED MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MDLS ARE SOMEWHAT ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH EXACT
POSITION OF OUR FRONT. GFS PUSHES IT THROUGH SOUTH OF THE COAST TUE
NIGHT BUT LAYS IT UP OVER SWRN LA AND THEN NUDGES BACK NORTH OVER
THE CWA THU. ECMWF STALLS IT OVER SRN LA TUE AND IT JUST MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE AND REINFORCING FRONT
PUSHES IT INTO THE GULF SAT...YES A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. WITH SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH IT BEING SUMMER AND KIND OF AN UNUSUAL
TIME TO GET COLD FRONTS WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND
APPROACH TO THE FCST WITH A LITTLE WEIGHT GIVEN TWRDS THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS.

WED SHOULD BE DRIER THAN TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND DRIER AIR FINALLY OVER THE REGION. THAT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST PLACES. WED NIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER NICE JULY NIGHT AS LONG AS
THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S COULD LEAD TO MORNING LOWS THU 5 DEGREES OR POSSIBLY MORE BELOW
NORMAL.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS BEGIN TO COME IN FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
NOW WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF FRONT AND ITS INFLUENCE ON TEMPS
AND POPS. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER NW FLOW AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK IMPULSE COMING ACROSS THE REGION AND IF
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT IS OVER THE REGION THEN THERE COULD BE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH. AS FOR TEMPS STILL FEEL LIKE WE WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. EITHER THERE WILL BE DECENT CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION WHICH WILL HURT DAYTIME HEATING EVEN WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP UP IN LL TEMPS OR THE COLD FRONT BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
COOL LL TEMPS OVER THE REGION.

FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH AND THERE IS EVEN SUGGESTIONS FROM THE
MDLS THAT THE TROUGH COULD CLOSE OFF AND DIG SOUTH PROVIDING
CONTINUE COOL WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z.
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD
RANGING FROM 3000 TO 5000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT WEAKEN
EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 5-13 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK BUT UNUSUAL SUMMERTIME COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  75  91  71 /  10  10  40  30
BTR  95  76  92  74 /  10  10  40  40
ASD  94  76  92  73 /  20  10  40  40
MSY  91  77  92  76 /  20  20  30  40
GPT  94  81  95  77 /  20  10  40  40
PQL  91  75  90  72 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER






000
FXUS64 KLIX 270831
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPTIC...RIDGE CNTRD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN NM WITH ONE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE OTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE NW ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS THROUGH UTAH AND TWRDS THE PAC NW. S/W EMBEDDED IN THE NRN
STREAM IS NOW OVER NRN MN. AT THE SFC THE GULF WAS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BASICALLY CNTRD SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WAS DRAPED MOSTLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM WRN CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER QUIET MUGGY NIGHT OVER THE MISSLOU
AREA. RADAR IS NICE AND QUIET BUT TEMPS AT 7Z WERE RANGING FROM 77
TO 83 WITH NUMEROUS LOCATIONS STILL REPORTING A HEAT INDEX AROUND
90.

ONE MORE MOSTLY QUIET DAY IN STORE BUT LOOK FOR IT TO BE A WARM
MUGGY ONE AGAIN. RIDGE AXIS FROM THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. WILL THE SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK A FEW
STORMS...NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT BUT IF ANY CONVECTION OCCURS
IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST. H925 TEMPS OF 24-26C
SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ONCE AGAIN AND GIVEN
MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS TO AT LEAST BE EQUAL TO YESTERDAY IF NOT A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. COMBINE THAT WITH THE RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS
IN PLACE AND WE COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX APPROACH 105 DEGREES IN
ISLTD LOCATIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON.

MON THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE. THE MID LVLS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
AND THE RIDGE WILL START TO LOSE SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME THE DEEPENING ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO SEND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS SOUTH
TWRDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER HGHTS AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER AFTN
CONVECTION MON BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WONT IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN MON NIGHT.

AS FOR THE COLD FRONT...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARENT QUITE IN AGREEMENT
LIKE THEY WERE THE PREV NIGHT BUT THE MAJORITY AT LEAST BRING THE
COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT MON AND APPROACHING THE COAST TUE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD GET SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR SLOWLY FILTERING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUE MORNING.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES WILL DICTATE ON HOW MUCH
DRY AND COOLER AIR PUSHES IN. IF THE FRONT CAN CONTINUE TO NUDGE
SOUTH INTO THE GULF THEN THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COMFORTABLE TUE NIGHT BUT IF THE FRONT STALLS ON THE COAST TUE THEN
TUE NIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN PREV NIGHTS BUT NOTHING EXCEPTIONAL
FOR JULY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH HPC AND THE GFS
AND GOING WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR LOWS WED MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MDLS ARE SOMEWHAT ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH EXACT
POSITION OF OUR FRONT. GFS PUSHES IT THROUGH SOUTH OF THE COAST TUE
NIGHT BUT LAYS IT UP OVER SWRN LA AND THEN NUDGES BACK NORTH OVER
THE CWA THU. ECMWF STALLS IT OVER SRN LA TUE AND IT JUST MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE AND REINFORCING FRONT
PUSHES IT INTO THE GULF SAT...YES A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. WITH SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH IT BEING SUMMER AND KIND OF AN UNUSUAL
TIME TO GET COLD FRONTS WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND
APPROACH TO THE FCST WITH A LITTLE WEIGHT GIVEN TWRDS THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS.

WED SHOULD BE DRIER THAN TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND DRIER AIR FINALLY OVER THE REGION. THAT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER LL TEMPS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST PLACES. WED NIGHT COULD BE ANOTHER NICE JULY NIGHT AS LONG AS
THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S COULD LEAD TO MORNING LOWS THU 5 DEGREES OR POSSIBLY MORE BELOW
NORMAL.

BIGGEST QUESTIONS BEGIN TO COME IN FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
NOW WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF FRONT AND ITS INFLUENCE ON TEMPS
AND POPS. WE WILL STILL BE UNDER NW FLOW AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK IMPULSE COMING ACROSS THE REGION AND IF
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT IS OVER THE REGION THEN THERE COULD BE
SOME CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH. AS FOR TEMPS STILL FEEL LIKE WE WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. EITHER THERE WILL BE DECENT CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION WHICH WILL HURT DAYTIME HEATING EVEN WITH A SLIGHT
BUMP UP IN LL TEMPS OR THE COLD FRONT BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
COOL LL TEMPS OVER THE REGION.

FRI AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH AND THERE IS EVEN SUGGESTIONS FROM THE
MDLS THAT THE TROUGH COULD CLOSE OFF AND DIG SOUTH PROVIDING
CONTINUE COOL WET PERIOD FOR THE REGION. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z.
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD
RANGING FROM 3000 TO 5000 FEET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BUT WEAKEN
EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 5-13 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK BUT UNUSUAL SUMMERTIME COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  75  91  71 /  10  10  40  30
BTR  95  76  92  74 /  10  10  40  40
ASD  94  76  92  73 /  20  10  40  40
MSY  91  77  92  76 /  20  20  30  40
GPT  94  81  95  77 /  20  10  40  40
PQL  91  75  90  72 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER





000
FXUS64 KLIX 270429
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE MORE
FOG PRONE TAF SITES. CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. 11


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  74  91 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  75  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  40
ASD  76  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
MSY  78  93  78  91 /  10  20  10  40
GPT  78  93  78  94 /  10  20  10  50
PQL  75  92  76  90 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 270429
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE MORE
FOG PRONE TAF SITES. CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. 11


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  74  91 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  75  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  40
ASD  76  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
MSY  78  93  78  91 /  10  20  10  40
GPT  78  93  78  94 /  10  20  10  50
PQL  75  92  76  90 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 262035
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
GULF AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE NOT BEEN EFFICIENT TRIGGERS
FOR CONVECTION THUSFAR TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN PROMINENTLY DEPICTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 10 PM. ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AS AIR
MASS STARTS SUCCUMBING TO THE AFFECTS OF COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING...TRANSLATING TO MID 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
MARINE INFLUENCES.

.LONG TERM...
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNDERGOING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH TROUGHING AND IMPULSE
ROUNDING THE BASE TO ADVANCE THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING BUT LOOK A LITTLE LIGHT ON POPS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT AND STRONG FOCUS BUT
NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY BE A HINDRANCE. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND 40 PERCENT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SEEM BENT ON PUSHING
THE FRONT CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND COASTAL WATERS BUT
FEEL THE RESISTANCE OF A WARM GULF WILL QUICKLY MODERATE THE
FRONTAL ZONE UPON ARRIVAL INTO THE NORTH GULF. THE AREA WILL
BENEFIT BY A SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY ON A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEW KHUM...KMSY...AND KNEW
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS CONVECTION MAY BREIFLY IMPACT ANY OF THESE
TERMINALS...BUT GIVEN THE LOW CHANCE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.  OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE
RISK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3500 TO 5000
FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THERE MAY BE A WEAK
INVERSION OVER KMCB AND KHUM LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AROUND 10Z WITH A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.  ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z.  BY
16Z...ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM
3000 TO 5000 FEET SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THE RISK IS STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  3

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  74  91 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  75  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  40
ASD  76  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
MSY  78  93  78  91 /  10  20  10  40
GPT  78  93  78  94 /  10  20  10  50
PQL  75  92  76  90 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32








000
FXUS64 KLIX 262035
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
GULF AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE NOT BEEN EFFICIENT TRIGGERS
FOR CONVECTION THUSFAR TODAY BUT HAVE BEEN PROMINENTLY DEPICTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 10 PM. ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER AS AIR
MASS STARTS SUCCUMBING TO THE AFFECTS OF COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING...TRANSLATING TO MID 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
MARINE INFLUENCES.

.LONG TERM...
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNDERGOING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH TROUGHING AND IMPULSE
ROUNDING THE BASE TO ADVANCE THE FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING BUT LOOK A LITTLE LIGHT ON POPS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF FRONT AND STRONG FOCUS BUT
NOCTURNAL TIMING MAY BE A HINDRANCE. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS OF 40-50 PERCENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND 40 PERCENT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SEEM BENT ON PUSHING
THE FRONT CLEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND COASTAL WATERS BUT
FEEL THE RESISTANCE OF A WARM GULF WILL QUICKLY MODERATE THE
FRONTAL ZONE UPON ARRIVAL INTO THE NORTH GULF. THE AREA WILL
BENEFIT BY A SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY ON A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEW KHUM...KMSY...AND KNEW
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS CONVECTION MAY BREIFLY IMPACT ANY OF THESE
TERMINALS...BUT GIVEN THE LOW CHANCE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION
OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.  OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE
RISK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH ONLY A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3500 TO 5000
FEET EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THERE MAY BE A WEAK
INVERSION OVER KMCB AND KHUM LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AROUND 10Z WITH A MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS.  ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY 13Z.  BY
16Z...ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM
3000 TO 5000 FEET SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THE RISK IS STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.  3

&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  74  91 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  75  94  74  92 /  10  10  10  40
ASD  76  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
MSY  78  93  78  91 /  10  20  10  40
GPT  78  93  78  94 /  10  20  10  50
PQL  75  92  76  90 /  20  20  10  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 261724
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET WILL
REMAIN OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. THE CU FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND ONLY EXPECT TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SLIDING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KMCB AND KHUM
THAT COULD BRING LIGHT FOG TO THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 08Z
THROUGH 12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL FALL INTO MVFR RANGE WHEN THIS FOG
FORMS. THE INVERSION WILL QUICKLY LIFT AFTER 12Z...WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD REDEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT CEILINGS OF AROUND 2000 FEET BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET AFTER 16Z. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  50
BTR  75  92  76  92 /  10  20  10  40
ASD  76  92  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
MSY  78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  40
GPT  78  93  78  94 /  10  20  10  40
PQL  75  90  76  90 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 261724
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET WILL
REMAIN OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 03Z TONIGHT. THE CU FIELD
WILL DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND ONLY EXPECT TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SLIDING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A RISK OF A WEAK INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KMCB AND KHUM
THAT COULD BRING LIGHT FOG TO THE TERMINALS FROM AROUND 08Z
THROUGH 12Z. VISIBILITIES WILL FALL INTO MVFR RANGE WHEN THIS FOG
FORMS. THE INVERSION WILL QUICKLY LIFT AFTER 12Z...WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD REDEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT CEILINGS OF AROUND 2000 FEET BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET AFTER 16Z. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  50
BTR  75  92  76  92 /  10  20  10  40
ASD  76  92  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
MSY  78  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  40
GPT  78  93  78  94 /  10  20  10  40
PQL  75  90  76  90 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 261516
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1016 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING DEPICTS A SEASONABLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
PROFILE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ IS 1.93 INCHES AND THE MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS 2291 J/KG. ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS RATHER LOW RH ABOVE 650 MB WHICH YIELDS A HIGHER
DCAPE OF 1468 J/KG. WINDS WERE GENERALLY WESTERLY UP TO AROUND 9
KFT THEN MOSTLY NORTHEAST ABOVE WITH THE PEAK TROPOSPHERIC WIND
ABOUT 40 KNOTS NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE AT 46 KFT. THE WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL IS MODERATE TODAY...POSITIVES BEING CAPE...HIGH PW...AND
HIGH LOW LEVEL THETA-E...WITH THE BIG NEGATIVE BEING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...VERY QUIET YET MUGGY NIGHT OVER THE REGION. TEMPS AT
8Z WERE STILL IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO
THE WSW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CNTRD OVER THE 4 CORNERS.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WARM MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RATHER ENTRENCHED OVER
THE 4 CORNERS WITH THE WRN RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY LAT SUN THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
MAIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
WILL BE JUST THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL SEND US
ANOTHER JULY COLD FRONT BUT PRIOR TO THAT LOOK FOR WARM TEMPS AND
VERY LITTLE RAIN THIS WEEKEND. H925 TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND 24-26C
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER AND POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR HIGHS.
MORNING LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80S. AS FOR
CONVECTION ISLTD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAT UP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BNDRY.

HEADING INTO MON THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS. NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MON AND
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TWRDS THE AREA. THIS COLD
FRONT...THE NW FLOW...AND LOWERING HGHTS WILL LEAD TO BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ON MON BUT MORE SO MON NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO
SLIDE INTO THE AREA. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF OUR UNUSUAL JULY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS STILL THE
STRONGEST BUT THE ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW AND WITH THAT
HAVE CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND APPROACH OF THE MDLS.

COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY
MID/LATE TUE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO COME TO AN END SLOWLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TUE AND MORE SO TUE NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH. ON WED AND THU H925 TEMPS COULD BE
AS LOW AS 21-23C LEADING TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
NEAR 90 SOUTH. AS FOR MORNING LOWS...DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO
SOME RATHER COOL MORNING LOWS WED AND THU. HAVE NOT GONE AS COLD AS
WE COULD REACH RIGHT NOW BUT AM SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO GO A LITTLE
COOLER FOR WED AND THU MORNING. THE FRONT COULD EVENTUALLY STALL
NEAR THE COAST AND THIS WOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. /CAB/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES SUCH AS HUM AND MCB. CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME AND BE LEFT UP TO
AMENDMENTS FOR ANY TSRA INCLUSION.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 5-13 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK BUT UNUSUAL SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE STALLING
FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
BRING NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AND WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  92  75  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  92  76  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  91  78  91  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  90  75  90  76 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 261516
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1016 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING DEPICTS A SEASONABLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
PROFILE. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ IS 1.93 INCHES AND THE MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS 2291 J/KG. ONE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE FROM
YESTERDAY IS RATHER LOW RH ABOVE 650 MB WHICH YIELDS A HIGHER
DCAPE OF 1468 J/KG. WINDS WERE GENERALLY WESTERLY UP TO AROUND 9
KFT THEN MOSTLY NORTHEAST ABOVE WITH THE PEAK TROPOSPHERIC WIND
ABOUT 40 KNOTS NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE AT 46 KFT. THE WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL IS MODERATE TODAY...POSITIVES BEING CAPE...HIGH PW...AND
HIGH LOW LEVEL THETA-E...WITH THE BIG NEGATIVE BEING LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...VERY QUIET YET MUGGY NIGHT OVER THE REGION. TEMPS AT
8Z WERE STILL IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO
THE WSW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CNTRD OVER THE 4 CORNERS.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WARM MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RATHER ENTRENCHED OVER
THE 4 CORNERS WITH THE WRN RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY LAT SUN THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
MAIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
WILL BE JUST THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL SEND US
ANOTHER JULY COLD FRONT BUT PRIOR TO THAT LOOK FOR WARM TEMPS AND
VERY LITTLE RAIN THIS WEEKEND. H925 TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND 24-26C
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER AND POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR HIGHS.
MORNING LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80S. AS FOR
CONVECTION ISLTD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAT UP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BNDRY.

HEADING INTO MON THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS. NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MON AND
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TWRDS THE AREA. THIS COLD
FRONT...THE NW FLOW...AND LOWERING HGHTS WILL LEAD TO BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ON MON BUT MORE SO MON NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO
SLIDE INTO THE AREA. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF OUR UNUSUAL JULY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS STILL THE
STRONGEST BUT THE ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW AND WITH THAT
HAVE CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND APPROACH OF THE MDLS.

COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY
MID/LATE TUE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO COME TO AN END SLOWLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TUE AND MORE SO TUE NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH. ON WED AND THU H925 TEMPS COULD BE
AS LOW AS 21-23C LEADING TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
NEAR 90 SOUTH. AS FOR MORNING LOWS...DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO
SOME RATHER COOL MORNING LOWS WED AND THU. HAVE NOT GONE AS COLD AS
WE COULD REACH RIGHT NOW BUT AM SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO GO A LITTLE
COOLER FOR WED AND THU MORNING. THE FRONT COULD EVENTUALLY STALL
NEAR THE COAST AND THIS WOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. /CAB/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES SUCH AS HUM AND MCB. CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME AND BE LEFT UP TO
AMENDMENTS FOR ANY TSRA INCLUSION.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 5-13 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK BUT UNUSUAL SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE STALLING
FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
BRING NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AND WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  92  75  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  92  76  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  91  78  91  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  90  75  90  76 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 260847
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...VERY QUIET YET MUGGY NIGHT OVER THE REGION. TEMPS AT
8Z WERE STILL IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. HIGH CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO
THE WSW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE CNTRD OVER THE 4 CORNERS.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WARM MUGGY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN RATHER ENTRENCHED OVER
THE 4 CORNERS WITH THE WRN RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. BY LAT SUN THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
MAIN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
WILL BE JUST THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN SHIFT WHICH WILL SEND US
ANOTHER JULY COLD FRONT BUT PRIOR TO THAT LOOK FOR WARM TEMPS AND
VERY LITTLE RAIN THIS WEEKEND. H925 TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND 24-26C
AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER AND POSSIBLY MID 90S FOR HIGHS.
MORNING LOWS THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80S. AS FOR
CONVECTION ISLTD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAT UP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE BNDRY.

HEADING INTO MON THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY WITH A DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
WRN CONUS. NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MON AND
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT TWRDS THE AREA. THIS COLD
FRONT...THE NW FLOW...AND LOWERING HGHTS WILL LEAD TO BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ON MON BUT MORE SO MON NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO
SLIDE INTO THE AREA. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF OUR UNUSUAL JULY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING ABOUT COOLER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE GFS IS STILL THE
STRONGEST BUT THE ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW AND WITH THAT
HAVE CONTINUED TO USE A BLEND APPROACH OF THE MDLS.

COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY
MID/LATE TUE MORNING. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO COME TO AN END SLOWLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TUE AND MORE SO TUE NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTH. ON WED AND THU H925 TEMPS COULD BE
AS LOW AS 21-23C LEADING TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO
NEAR 90 SOUTH. AS FOR MORNING LOWS...DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO
SOME RATHER COOL MORNING LOWS WED AND THU. HAVE NOT GONE AS COLD AS
WE COULD REACH RIGHT NOW BUT AM SHOWING LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S ACROSS. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO GO A LITTLE
COOLER FOR WED AND THU MORNING. THE FRONT COULD EVENTUALLY STALL
NEAR THE COAST AND THIS WOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES SUCH AS HUM AND MCB. CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME AND BE LEFT UP TO
AMENDMENTS FOR ANY TSRA INCLUSION.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 5-13 KNOTS AND SEAS
2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK BUT UNUSUAL SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE STALLING
FURTHER OUT INTO THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
BRING NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AND WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  92  75  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  92  76  92  76 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  91  78  91  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  90  75  90  76 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER





000
FXUS64 KLIX 260426
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE
MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  73  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  20
ASD  72  92  74  92 /  20  30  10  20
MSY  76  93  78  92 /  20  30  10  20
GPT  76  92  77  91 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  75  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 260426
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT THE
MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  73  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  20
ASD  72  92  74  92 /  20  30  10  20
MSY  76  93  78  92 /  20  30  10  20
GPT  76  92  77  91 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  75  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 260108
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
808 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
A SUCCESSFUL 00Z BALLOON LAUNCH THIS EVENING THAT REACHED A HEIGHT
OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND BURST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF LAKE MAUREPAS. A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UP TO ABOUT
525MB AFTER WHICH DRIER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED. THE 750 TO 650MB LAYER
HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLE FROM THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING AS THE
DRIER AIR IS BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST PER WV IMAGERY AND
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON/S THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER
THE LAUNCH SITE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE IS COMPARABLE TO 24
HOURS AGO...THEN GENERALLY 1 OR 2 DEGREES HIGHER /WARMER/ UP TO
ABOUT 600MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES AT OVER 2 INCHES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
1731 J/KG/ AND WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE AND THEN VEERED TO NORTHEASTERLY ABOVE 450MB. A WIND
SPEED MAX OF 45 KNOTS WAS LOCATED 7.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS WINDS VARYING
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
GULF...TO NORTHWESTERLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF
SORTS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES TO
AID FOCUS FOR LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY
LITTLE STEERING...MOST OF THE STORMS ARE RUNNING ON PROPAGATION
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BAND BUT BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINATED RATHER
QUICKLY. THE FEW CLUSTER OF CELLS ON THE SCOPE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE SOME MINOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENTS BY
DAYBREAK TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND FOCUSED ON LAKE AND GULF
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL REMAIN WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD AS DEEP TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FRONT IS STILL INDICATED BY THE MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR THE COAST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY THOUGH CONVECTION MAY
INDUCE IT SOUTHWARD INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE TO EITHER DISRUPT THE LAND-GULF BREEZE CYCLE OR
ENHANCE THE GULF BREEZE ASPECT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE AUGMENTATION OF
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF A TIMING
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS DO
INDICATE AN IMPULSE EVENTUALLY RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTOLYTIC
BOUNDARY TO INCREASE RAIN COVERAGE AND EFFICIENCY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AMBITIOUS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE GULF...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREBY POSING THE GREATER RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...INDICATED A BLENDED FORECAST THAT ALLOWS FOR
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD NEXT WEEK BUT CONCEDING THE FRONT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO REACH FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY BELIEVED.

AVIATION...
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS COVERAGE IS ISOLATED AT
BEST. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RUNNING AROUND 4000 FEET WILL
LINGER THROUGH 00Z...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION AT SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS
AROUND 10Z TO 13Z...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR ONCE THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION LIFTS. OVERALL...EXPECTING TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 32

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF IT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST WILL REFLECT
IT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BECOMING STATIONARY...WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF STORMINESS IN THE MARINE AREAS NEXT
WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  73  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  20
ASD  72  92  74  92 /  20  30  10  20
MSY  76  93  78  92 /  20  30  10  20
GPT  76  92  77  91 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  75  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 260108
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
808 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
A SUCCESSFUL 00Z BALLOON LAUNCH THIS EVENING THAT REACHED A HEIGHT
OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND BURST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF LAKE MAUREPAS. A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN UP TO ABOUT
525MB AFTER WHICH DRIER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED. THE 750 TO 650MB LAYER
HAS MOISTENED CONSIDERABLE FROM THIS MORNING/S SOUNDING AS THE
DRIER AIR IS BEING PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST PER WV IMAGERY AND
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON/S THUNDERSTORMS MOVED OVER
THE LAUNCH SITE. THE TEMPERATURE AT THE SURFACE IS COMPARABLE TO 24
HOURS AGO...THEN GENERALLY 1 OR 2 DEGREES HIGHER /WARMER/ UP TO
ABOUT 600MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES AT OVER 2 INCHES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
1731 J/KG/ AND WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE AND THEN VEERED TO NORTHEASTERLY ABOVE 450MB. A WIND
SPEED MAX OF 45 KNOTS WAS LOCATED 7.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS WINDS VARYING
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
GULF...TO NORTHWESTERLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF
SORTS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES TO
AID FOCUS FOR LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY
LITTLE STEERING...MOST OF THE STORMS ARE RUNNING ON PROPAGATION
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BAND BUT BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINATED RATHER
QUICKLY. THE FEW CLUSTER OF CELLS ON THE SCOPE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE SOME MINOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENTS BY
DAYBREAK TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND FOCUSED ON LAKE AND GULF
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL REMAIN WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD AS DEEP TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FRONT IS STILL INDICATED BY THE MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR THE COAST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY THOUGH CONVECTION MAY
INDUCE IT SOUTHWARD INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE TO EITHER DISRUPT THE LAND-GULF BREEZE CYCLE OR
ENHANCE THE GULF BREEZE ASPECT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE AUGMENTATION OF
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF A TIMING
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS DO
INDICATE AN IMPULSE EVENTUALLY RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTOLYTIC
BOUNDARY TO INCREASE RAIN COVERAGE AND EFFICIENCY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AMBITIOUS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE GULF...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREBY POSING THE GREATER RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...INDICATED A BLENDED FORECAST THAT ALLOWS FOR
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD NEXT WEEK BUT CONCEDING THE FRONT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO REACH FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY BELIEVED.

AVIATION...
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS COVERAGE IS ISOLATED AT
BEST. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RUNNING AROUND 4000 FEET WILL
LINGER THROUGH 00Z...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION AT SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS
AROUND 10Z TO 13Z...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR ONCE THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION LIFTS. OVERALL...EXPECTING TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 32

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF IT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST WILL REFLECT
IT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BECOMING STATIONARY...WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF STORMINESS IN THE MARINE AREAS NEXT
WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  73  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  20
ASD  72  92  74  92 /  20  30  10  20
MSY  76  93  78  92 /  20  30  10  20
GPT  76  92  77  91 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  75  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 252052
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS WINDS VARYING
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
GULF...TO NORTHWESTERLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF
SORTS OVER SOUTEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES TO
AID FOCUS FOR LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY
LITTLE STEERING...MOST OF THE STORMS ARE RUNNING ON PROPAGATION
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BAND BUT BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINATED RATHER
QUICKLY. THE FEW CLUSTER OF CELLS ON THE SCOPE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE SOME MINOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENTS BY
DAYBREAK TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND FOCUSED ON LAKE AND GULF
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL REMAIN WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD AS DEEP TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FRONT IS STILL INDICATED BY THE MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR THE COAST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY THOUGH CONVECTION MAY
INDUCE IT SOUTHWARD INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE TO EITHER DISRUPT THE LAND-GULF BREEZE CYCLE OR
ENHANCE THE GULF BREEZE ASPECT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE AUGMENTATION OF
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF A TIMING
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS DO
INDICATE AN IMPULSE EVENTUALLY RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTOLYTIC
BOUNDARY TO INCREASE RAIN COVERAGE AND EFFICIENCY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AMBITIOUS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE GULF...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREBY POSING THE GREATER RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...INDICATED A BLENDED FORECAST THAT ALLOWS FOR
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD NEXT WEEK BUT CONCEDING THE FRONT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO REACH FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY BELIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS COVERAGE IS ISOLATED AT
BEST. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RUNNING AROUND 4000 FEET WILL
LINGER THROUGH 00Z...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION AT SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS
AROUND 10Z TO 13Z...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR ONCE THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION LIFTS. OVERALL...EXPECTING TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 32

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF IT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST WILL REFLECT
IT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BECOMING STATIONARY...WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF STORMINESS IN THE MARINE AREAS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  73  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  20
ASD  72  92  74  92 /  20  30  10  20
MSY  76  93  78  92 /  20  30  10  20
GPT  76  92  77  91 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  75  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32








000
FXUS64 KLIX 252052
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION HAS WINDS VARYING
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE
GULF...TO NORTHWESTERLY IN INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A CONVERGENCE ZONE OF
SORTS OVER SOUTEAST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES TO
AID FOCUS FOR LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH VERY
LITTLE STEERING...MOST OF THE STORMS ARE RUNNING ON PROPAGATION
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BAND BUT BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINATED RATHER
QUICKLY. THE FEW CLUSTER OF CELLS ON THE SCOPE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING
OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE SOME MINOR SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENTS BY
DAYBREAK TO BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND FOCUSED ON LAKE AND GULF
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. COVERAGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ISOLATED AND
SHORT-LIVED IN NATURE.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL REMAIN WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD AS DEEP TROUGHING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FRONT IS STILL INDICATED BY THE MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY
CLEAR THE COAST BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY THOUGH CONVECTION MAY
INDUCE IT SOUTHWARD INITIALLY BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE TO EITHER DISRUPT THE LAND-GULF BREEZE CYCLE OR
ENHANCE THE GULF BREEZE ASPECT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE AUGMENTATION OF
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A BIT OF A TIMING
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS DO
INDICATE AN IMPULSE EVENTUALLY RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTOLYTIC
BOUNDARY TO INCREASE RAIN COVERAGE AND EFFICIENCY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS IS MORE AMBITIOUS WITH PUSHING THE FRONT WELL INTO
THE GULF...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREBY POSING THE GREATER RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME...INDICATED A BLENDED FORECAST THAT ALLOWS FOR
ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD NEXT WEEK BUT CONCEDING THE FRONT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO REACH FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY BELIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS COVERAGE IS ISOLATED AT
BEST. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RUNNING AROUND 4000 FEET WILL
LINGER THROUGH 00Z...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION AT SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS
AROUND 10Z TO 13Z...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR ONCE THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION LIFTS. OVERALL...EXPECTING TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 32

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE NORTH REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF IT WILL ACTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST WILL REFLECT
IT MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BECOMING STATIONARY...WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE RISK OF STORMINESS IN THE MARINE AREAS NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  73  94  74  94 /  20  20  10  20
ASD  72  92  74  92 /  20  30  10  20
MSY  76  93  78  92 /  20  30  10  20
GPT  76  92  77  91 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  75  92  73  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32









000
FXUS64 KLIX 251326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SUCCESSFULL FLIGHT THIS MORNING. SOUNDING IS VERY MOIST WITH
PW MEASURED AT 1.95 INCHES. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM 750MB
TO 650MB THEN ABOVE 600MB. WINDS WESTERLY AT THE SFC THEN NW
FLOW ALOFT. ENTIRE SOUNDING IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SOUNDING BY A DEGREE OR TWO. SOME PARAMETERS FROM THE FLIGHT. 500
MB TEMPERATURE IS -6C...CHANCE OF SEVERE VERY LOW...LFC PRESSURE
WAS 868MB... AND THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 564MB.

&&

.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND CAROLINAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO CENTRAL BAMA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. NORTH WINDS WERE LOCATED AT JACKSON AND POINTS
NORTH AND DEWPOINT READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S SOUTH OF
GREENWOOD/MS. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEMARCATION LINE WITH DRY AIR NORTH FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTH
ALABAMA TO BTR TO LCH. PLANER VIEW OF PW VALUES SHOWED THE MID
LAYER DRYING AND POOL OF MOISTURE FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS TO
MISSISSIPPI COAST TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES.
5H TEMPS WERE AROUND -5C ALONG LOUISIANA COAST AND -4C OVER NORTH
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. 18

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LAYERS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHT PUSH TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. PW VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 1.4 INCHES
JUST NORTH OF BTR AND REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE
RIVER PARISHES...TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. SURFACE
HEATING WITH MOISTURE MAY YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND POINTS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AT SAME
TIME...WARMING IN THE MID LAYER WILL RESULT IN SKINNY CAPES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES STARTING AROUND 2000J/KG THIS MORNING
TO 700J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR MID DAY THEN DECREASING COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. WARM MID
LAYER TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED IN
NATURE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER RED RIVER VALLEY AND
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S. 18

LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN
AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND
THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPS ACROSS NORTH HALF MAY RESPOND DOWN INTO 60S FOR MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE MORE FOG PRONE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TODAY...AND ALSO AROUND ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GPT TO MSY TO
HUM LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  92  72  92  74 /  40  20  30  10
MSY  90  76  93  77 /  40  20  30  10
GPT  92  76  92  77 /  40  20  30  10
PQL  91  75  92  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 251326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SUCCESSFULL FLIGHT THIS MORNING. SOUNDING IS VERY MOIST WITH
PW MEASURED AT 1.95 INCHES. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM 750MB
TO 650MB THEN ABOVE 600MB. WINDS WESTERLY AT THE SFC THEN NW
FLOW ALOFT. ENTIRE SOUNDING IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SOUNDING BY A DEGREE OR TWO. SOME PARAMETERS FROM THE FLIGHT. 500
MB TEMPERATURE IS -6C...CHANCE OF SEVERE VERY LOW...LFC PRESSURE
WAS 868MB... AND THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 564MB.

&&

.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND CAROLINAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO CENTRAL BAMA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. NORTH WINDS WERE LOCATED AT JACKSON AND POINTS
NORTH AND DEWPOINT READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S SOUTH OF
GREENWOOD/MS. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEMARCATION LINE WITH DRY AIR NORTH FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTH
ALABAMA TO BTR TO LCH. PLANER VIEW OF PW VALUES SHOWED THE MID
LAYER DRYING AND POOL OF MOISTURE FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS TO
MISSISSIPPI COAST TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES.
5H TEMPS WERE AROUND -5C ALONG LOUISIANA COAST AND -4C OVER NORTH
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. 18

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LAYERS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHT PUSH TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. PW VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 1.4 INCHES
JUST NORTH OF BTR AND REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE
RIVER PARISHES...TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. SURFACE
HEATING WITH MOISTURE MAY YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND POINTS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AT SAME
TIME...WARMING IN THE MID LAYER WILL RESULT IN SKINNY CAPES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES STARTING AROUND 2000J/KG THIS MORNING
TO 700J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR MID DAY THEN DECREASING COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. WARM MID
LAYER TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED IN
NATURE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER RED RIVER VALLEY AND
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S. 18

LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN
AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND
THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPS ACROSS NORTH HALF MAY RESPOND DOWN INTO 60S FOR MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 18

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE MORE FOG PRONE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TODAY...AND ALSO AROUND ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GPT TO MSY TO
HUM LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  92  72  92  74 /  40  20  30  10
MSY  90  76  93  77 /  40  20  30  10
GPT  92  76  92  77 /  40  20  30  10
PQL  91  75  92  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 250935
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
435 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND CAROLINAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TO CENTRAL BAMA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. NORTH WINDS WERE LOCATED AT JACKSON AND POINTS
NORTH AND DEWPOINT READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S SOUTH OF
GREENWOOD/MS. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
DEMARCATION LINE WITH DRY AIR NORTH FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTH
ALABAMA TO BTR TO LCH. PLANER VIEW OF PW VALUES SHOWED THE MID
LAYER DRYING AND POOL OF MOISTURE FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS TO
MISSISSIPPI COAST TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES.
5H TEMPS WERE AROUND -5C ALONG LOUISIANA COAST AND -4C OVER NORTH
LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. 18

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LAYERS WILL PROVIDE
SLIGHT PUSH TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTH PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY. PW VALUES WILL DECREASE TO 1.4 INCHES
JUST NORTH OF BTR AND REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE
RIVER PARISHES...TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. SURFACE
HEATING WITH MOISTURE MAY YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND POINTS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AT SAME
TIME...WARMING IN THE MID LAYER WILL RESULT IN SKINNY CAPES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES STARTING AROUND 2000J/KG THIS MORNING
TO 700J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR MID DAY THEN DECREASING COVERAGE BY THIS EVENING. WARM MID
LAYER TEMPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED IN
NATURE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER RED RIVER VALLEY AND
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL THICKNESS LAYERS TO INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S. 18

.LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON SHOWING AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN
AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND
THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPS ACROSS NORTH HALF MAY RESPOND DOWN INTO 60S FOR MORNING LOWS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THE MORE FOG PRONE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TODAY...AND ALSO AROUND ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GPT TO MSY TO
HUM LINE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  71  93  74 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  92  72  92  74 /  40  20  30  10
MSY  90  76  93  77 /  40  20  30  10
GPT  92  76  92  77 /  40  20  30  10
PQL  91  75  92  73 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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