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000
FXUS64 KLIX 012031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
BTR  74  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  20  30
MSY  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  20  40
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  30
PQL  73  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 012031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
BTR  74  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  20  30
MSY  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  20  40
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  30
PQL  73  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 012031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
BTR  74  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  20  30
MSY  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  20  40
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  30
PQL  73  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 011310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 011310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH


.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH


.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 010058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT A BIT MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS. PW IS UP TO 1.62 INCHES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 1300 J/KG.
THERE WERE SOME STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST LA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY UP TO
900 MB THEN RATHER VARIABLE IN A LAYER TO 525 MB. WINDS ALOFT ARE
THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH PEAK WIND OF 45 KTS AT 170 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS 2 MAIN AREAS OF WEAKNESS. THE STRONGEST EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO AND THE OTHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE
2 FEATURES THOUGH RIGHT ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE
WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE HAVE BEEN NUDGING INTO
THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
ADDED SLIGHTLY CHANCE POPS ALONG THE LCH/LIX CWA BOUNDARIES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. MOST OF THE INLAND CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A BTR TO HUM LINE AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND SHIFT EAST MID WEEK THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
BUOYANT CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40
PERCENT POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE.

MEFFER

MARINE... THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS.
ONLY FCST ISSUE WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY FEW TO SCT AT 040
TO 050. ALSO ADDED TEMPO FOR MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AROUND 12Z AT HDC...MCB...BTR...AND HUM FOLLOWING
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING.

ANSORGE

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  73  93  73  94 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  73  93  73  92 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  75  91  76  91 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  72  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 312113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS 2 MAIN AREAS OF WEAKNESS. THE STRONGEST EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO AND THE OTHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE
2 FEATURES THOUGH RIGHT ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE
WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE HAVE BEEN NUDGING INTO
THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
ADDED SLIGHTLY CHANCE POPS ALONG THE LCH/LIX CWA BOUNDARIES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. MOST OF THE INLAND CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A BTR TO HUM LINE AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND SHIFT EAST MID WEEK THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
BUOYANT CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40
PERCENT POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE... THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS.
ONLY FCST ISSUE WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY FEW TO SCT AT 040
TO 050. ALSO ADDED TEMPO FOR MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AROUND 12Z AT HDC...MCB...BTR...AND HUM FOLLOWING
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING.

ANSORGE
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  73  93  73  94 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  73  93  73  92 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  75  91  76  91 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  72  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 312113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS 2 MAIN AREAS OF WEAKNESS. THE STRONGEST EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO AND THE OTHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE
2 FEATURES THOUGH RIGHT ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF MOISTURE JUST TO THE
WEST. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE HAVE BEEN NUDGING INTO
THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE
ADDED SLIGHTLY CHANCE POPS ALONG THE LCH/LIX CWA BOUNDARIES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. MOST OF THE INLAND CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. TUESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF A BTR TO HUM LINE AND HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND SHIFT EAST MID WEEK THRU FRIDAY.
THIS SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY
BUOYANT CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40
PERCENT POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE... THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS.
ONLY FCST ISSUE WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY FEW TO SCT AT 040
TO 050. ALSO ADDED TEMPO FOR MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AROUND 12Z AT HDC...MCB...BTR...AND HUM FOLLOWING
GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING.

ANSORGE
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  73  93  73  94 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  73  93  73  92 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  75  91  76  91 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  72  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 311744
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1244 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...18Z AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY FEW TO SCT AT 040 TO 050.
ALSO ADDED TEMPO FOR MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT PATCHY
FOG AROUND 12Z AT HDC...MCB...BTR...AND HUM FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SLOW MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES AS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS CLIMBED ABOUT 0.15 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT
TO 1.37 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT FORECAST CAPE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 86 WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY FORMING DUE TO DRY AIR BETWEEN 5000 AND 15000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE ASCENT LASTED 111 MINUTES AND REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON BURST NEAR
TALISHEEK 15 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  73  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  71  93  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  75  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  72  92  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 311744
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1244 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...18Z AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY FEW TO SCT AT 040 TO 050.
ALSO ADDED TEMPO FOR MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT PATCHY
FOG AROUND 12Z AT HDC...MCB...BTR...AND HUM FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SLOW MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES AS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS CLIMBED ABOUT 0.15 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT
TO 1.37 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT FORECAST CAPE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 86 WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY FORMING DUE TO DRY AIR BETWEEN 5000 AND 15000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE ASCENT LASTED 111 MINUTES AND REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON BURST NEAR
TALISHEEK 15 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  73  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  71  93  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  75  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  72  92  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 311744
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1244 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...18Z AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW.
THE LOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY FEW TO SCT AT 040 TO 050.
ALSO ADDED TEMPO FOR MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT PATCHY
FOG AROUND 12Z AT HDC...MCB...BTR...AND HUM FOLLOWING GUIDANCE
AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SLOW MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES AS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS CLIMBED ABOUT 0.15 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT
TO 1.37 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT FORECAST CAPE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 86 WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY FORMING DUE TO DRY AIR BETWEEN 5000 AND 15000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE ASCENT LASTED 111 MINUTES AND REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON BURST NEAR
TALISHEEK 15 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  73  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  71  93  73  93 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  75  91  77  91 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  72  92  73  90 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 311300
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SLOW MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES AS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS CLIMBED ABOUT 0.15 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT
TO 1.37 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT FORECAST CAPE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 86 WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY FORMING DUE TO DRY AIR BETWEEN 5000 AND 15000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE ASCENT LASTED 111 MINUTES AND REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON BURST NEAR
TALISHEEK 15 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  91  75  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  91  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 311300
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SLOW MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES AS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS CLIMBED ABOUT 0.15 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT
TO 1.37 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT FORECAST CAPE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 86 WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY FORMING DUE TO DRY AIR BETWEEN 5000 AND 15000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE ASCENT LASTED 111 MINUTES AND REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON BURST NEAR
TALISHEEK 15 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  91  75  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  91  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 311300
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SLOW MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES AS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS CLIMBED ABOUT 0.15 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT
TO 1.37 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT FORECAST CAPE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 86 WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY FORMING DUE TO DRY AIR BETWEEN 5000 AND 15000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE ASCENT LASTED 111 MINUTES AND REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON BURST NEAR
TALISHEEK 15 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  91  75  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  91  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 311300
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SLOW MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES AS WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS CLIMBED ABOUT 0.15 INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT
TO 1.37 INCHES THIS MORNING. THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME...BUT FORECAST CAPE
VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG LATER TODAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 86 WILL BE REACHED IN MANY LOCATIONS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY FORMING DUE TO DRY AIR BETWEEN 5000 AND 15000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE ASCENT LASTED 111 MINUTES AND REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON BURST NEAR
TALISHEEK 15 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  91  75  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  91  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 310849
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  91  75  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  91  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 310849
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  91  75  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  91  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310849
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  91  75  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  91  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 310849
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER TO THE EAST COAST.
LOCALLY WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MEANING HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE
FEW DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
IN THE LONG RANGE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOME GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS BUT STUCK WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. AS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING BR/FG DROPPING A FEW LOCATIONS INTO
MVFR STATUS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BY THE RULE OF THE
DAY. NO CONVECTION IS REALLY ANTICIPATED FOR ANOTHER 46 TO 72 HRS.
/CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
THE FCST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINS BENIGN WITH GENERALLY 10
KTS OR LESS AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT OR LESS. ONLY FCST ISSUE
WOULD BE ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  93  71  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  91  75  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  91  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  92  72  92  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310425
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015



.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COULD OF EXCEPTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMCB AND KHUM. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 310425
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015



.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COULD OF EXCEPTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KMCB AND KHUM. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310103
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
803 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
REGION...WITH WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE...AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL OF AROUND ONE DEGREE CELSIUS STILL IN PLACE. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS MOISTENED UP SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT PW VALUES ARE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL AT ONLY 1.3
INCHES. AS A RESULT...ONLY SOME LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FORM OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WAS NOTED BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL CAP.
32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310103
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
803 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
REGION...WITH WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE...AND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL OF AROUND ONE DEGREE CELSIUS STILL IN PLACE. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS MOISTENED UP SLIGHTLY ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT PW VALUES ARE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL AT ONLY 1.3
INCHES. AS A RESULT...ONLY SOME LIMITED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE
FORM OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WAS NOTED BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL CAP.
32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 302011
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A WEAK TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA...IS ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST. A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...BUT
NOTHING MUCH GOING ON OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CURRENTLY NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT THE FEW STORMS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. GEORGIA UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE
BIG BEND LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS. HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST DUE TO CONTINUITY WITH MODELS AND
NEIGHBORS FORECASTS. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER LAND UNTIL A
SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF NORMAL...TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. 35

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SET UP OVER THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DIFFERING DETAILS ON WHEN SYSTEM
DEPARTS. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS...WHICH IS SCATTERED PRECIP DURING
THE DAY AND ISOLATED...MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS AT NIGHT. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MCB WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AND PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z
FOR A FEW HOURS. 12Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE LIGHT FOG
PERHAPS AT BTR AND HDC...BUT WITH OBS THIS MORNING NOT SHOWING
ANYTHING LESS THAN 7 MILES DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

ANSORGE

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 3 FEET /MAINLY OUTER WATERS/ WILL PREVAIL AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINANTS THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ANSORGE

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 302011
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOWS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A WEAK TROF...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA...IS ALONG THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST. A COUPLE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR WESTERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS...BUT
NOTHING MUCH GOING ON OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CURRENTLY NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS
EVENING...AND EXPECT THE FEW STORMS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. GEORGIA UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE
BIG BEND LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN TEXAS. HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST DUE TO CONTINUITY WITH MODELS AND
NEIGHBORS FORECASTS. NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVER LAND UNTIL A
SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF NORMAL...TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. 35

.LONG TERM...

WEAK UPPER LOW IN EAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SET UP OVER THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH DIFFERING DETAILS ON WHEN SYSTEM
DEPARTS. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS...WHICH IS SCATTERED PRECIP DURING
THE DAY AND ISOLATED...MAINLY OVER COASTAL WATERS AT NIGHT. LATER
FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP A BIT FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING CLOSE TO NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MCB WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AND PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z
FOR A FEW HOURS. 12Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATE LIGHT FOG
PERHAPS AT BTR AND HDC...BUT WITH OBS THIS MORNING NOT SHOWING
ANYTHING LESS THAN 7 MILES DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

ANSORGE

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS TO 3 FEET /MAINLY OUTER WATERS/ WILL PREVAIL AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINANTS THE WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL RETURN TUESDAY
AND BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ANSORGE

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  68  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  91  75  90 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 301755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18Z AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9Z AROUND MCB
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 301755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18Z AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9Z AROUND MCB
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 301755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18Z AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9Z AROUND MCB
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 301755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...18Z AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 9Z AROUND MCB
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 301406
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 301406
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 301406
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
906 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z LIX SOUNDING CONTINUED TO DEPICT A DRY AIR COLUMN WITH THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.2 INCHES. MOISTURE WAS ALSO PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 6 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE UP TO NEAR
20 KFT. A CAP/INVERSION OF 3 DEGREES F EXTENDED FROM 6 TO 8
KFT...AND THE INSTABILITY WAS MODERATE WITH MU PARCEL CAPE AT 1877
J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS LOW AT 84 DEGREES F...HOWEVER
ANY BUILDING CUMULUS TOWERS WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...THUS NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WIND PROFILE IS DOMINANT
WESTERLY AND GENERALLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL WINDS
WEST AT 5 KNOTS UP TO 5 KFT...AND SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS AT 5 TO
10 KFT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

.LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT SINCE ERIKA WAS TAKEN OFF THE TABLE
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ARE COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH KICKS OUT
TODAY AS ANOTHER ONE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS BY LATE TOMORROW AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. I HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WE START CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
13/MH

.LONG TERM...
AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK AND BEYOND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN NO ISSUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE DEMISE OF ERIKA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MARINE FCST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BENIGN. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  91  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  91  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  74  91  75 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  88  72  90  72 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300428
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300428
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300428
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AT
1.15 INCHES...AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY NOTED BELOW THE
CAP...AND THAT ALLOWED FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM
TODAY...BUT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE CAPPING AND
DRY AIRMASS. WEAK WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED.
WINDS WERE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AT
1.15 INCHES...AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY NOTED BELOW THE
CAP...AND THAT ALLOWED FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM
TODAY...BUT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE CAPPING AND
DRY AIRMASS. WEAK WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED.
WINDS WERE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AT
1.15 INCHES...AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY NOTED BELOW THE
CAP...AND THAT ALLOWED FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM
TODAY...BUT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE CAPPING AND
DRY AIRMASS. WEAK WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED.
WINDS WERE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
758 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AT
1.15 INCHES...AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP OF 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE WAS SOME INSTABILITY NOTED BELOW THE
CAP...AND THAT ALLOWED FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM
TODAY...BUT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WAS LIMITED DUE TO THE CAPPING AND
DRY AIRMASS. WEAK WIND FLOW THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED.
WINDS WERE VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  70  92  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  71  90  68  92 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  73  90  75  90 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  90 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  73  89  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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