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000
FXUS64 KLIX 220515
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...

ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  79  52  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  47  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  78  58  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  51  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 220515
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...

ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  79  52  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  47  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  78  58  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  51  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 212040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS TO SLOW AS THIS OCCURS AND THE LOW DEEPENS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA AS WELL AS
SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE AT A MINIMUM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ANYWAYS.

A MORE NORTHERLY STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE CURRENT ONE TO THE EAST
AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS.

FOR THE TROPICS...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
INVESTIGATING AT THIS TIME. NO IMMEDIATE IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM/S TRACK INCREASES
QUITE A BIT BEYOND 5 DAYS. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SPLITTING IN HALF
WITH ONE PORTION BEING PICKED UP WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH AND ANOTHER
BEING LEFT BEHIND. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN WITH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
LEFTOVER ENERGY. AT THE LEAST IT WOULD BE STUCK IN A WEAK STEERING
PATTERN REGIME IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. MAY NEED TO MONITOR
THIS NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
580 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OK TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z MAINLY NEAR INLAND BODIES OF
WATER. IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE. A SEABREEZE WILL MOVE THROUGH
KGPT BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND WILL BRING TEMPORARY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW.

KEG
&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL SLOW AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES A LOW OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THUS... MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH INTERACTS WITH A REGION OF LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  79  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  62  78  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  77  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  50  77  45  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 211708
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
580 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OK TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z MAINLY NEAR INLAND
BODIES OF WATER. IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE. A SEABREEZE WILL
MOVE THROUGH KGPT BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND WILL BRING TEMPORARY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

$$

KEG







000
FXUS64 KLIX 210729
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
229 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS WILL BE PRETTY SHORT AND SWEET SINCE THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT
TO DISCUSS. ONCE AGAIN GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE
FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST
THINKING HASN/T CHANGED.

A PERSISTENT LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL REINFORCE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PLEASANT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THE LOWS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME VERY GRADUAL MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE
ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEYOND ABOUT
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TODAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
ALSO FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.  THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF SOUTH INTERACTS WITH A REGION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  82  56  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  52  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  79  62  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  55  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  80  50  77  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 210505
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1205 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AS A DRY AND
STABLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  53  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  83  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  82  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  82  62  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  81  56  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  81  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 210505
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1205 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AS A DRY AND
STABLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  53  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  83  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  82  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  82  62  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  81  56  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  81  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 202117
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. THE SHORT VERSION IS NO RAIN EXPECTED AND TEMPS WITHIN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THE LONG
VERSION WONT BE THAT TERRIBLY LONG. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS NEAR THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTLINES AND RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES
OF A LOW CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS KEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO EACH OTHER ANYWAYS.

A MORE NORTHERLY STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE
CURRENT ONE TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
STILL NO RAIN WITH LACK OF MOISTURE.

FOR THE TROPICS...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENERALLY SPEAKING...NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM/S
TRACK INCREASES QUITE A BIT BEYOND 5 DAYS. IT COULD GET PICKED UP BY
THE LATE WEEK TROUGH AND HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. IF THAT DOESNT
HAPPEN...IT COULD STALL SOMEWHERE AROUND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO OR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND BE STUCK IN A LOW STEERING
CURRENT REGIME.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TERMINAL SITES WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT 10KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACT EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL SLOW AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES A LOW OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THUS...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS ALSO FORECAST THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS  LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  55  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  60  82  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  81  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  54  81  52  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 202117
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. THE SHORT VERSION IS NO RAIN EXPECTED AND TEMPS WITHIN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THE LONG
VERSION WONT BE THAT TERRIBLY LONG. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS NEAR THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTLINES AND RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES
OF A LOW CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS KEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO EACH OTHER ANYWAYS.

A MORE NORTHERLY STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE
CURRENT ONE TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
STILL NO RAIN WITH LACK OF MOISTURE.

FOR THE TROPICS...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENERALLY SPEAKING...NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM/S
TRACK INCREASES QUITE A BIT BEYOND 5 DAYS. IT COULD GET PICKED UP BY
THE LATE WEEK TROUGH AND HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. IF THAT DOESNT
HAPPEN...IT COULD STALL SOMEWHERE AROUND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO OR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND BE STUCK IN A LOW STEERING
CURRENT REGIME.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TERMINAL SITES WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT 10KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACT EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL SLOW AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES A LOW OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THUS...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS ALSO FORECAST THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS  LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  55  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  60  82  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  81  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  54  81  52  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 201720
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. THE RESULT IS
VFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINAL SITES WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT 10KTS OR LESS. WINDS MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY MINIMAL IF
ANY IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

$$
KEG





000
FXUS64 KLIX 201312
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...12Z SOUNDING...

A SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION WAS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDING THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE
REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS TURNED CALM AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WAS A NEARLY
15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE TOP OF THE INVERSION 500
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND TO THE SURFACE. ABOVE THIS INVERSION
LAYER...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN
FACT...ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION WAS NOTED FROM 950 TO 925MB DUE
TO AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THIS CONTINUED DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO DROPPED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN FROM
0.72 INCHES LAST EVENING TO 0.64 INCHES THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 201312
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...12Z SOUNDING...

A SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION WAS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDING THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE
REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS TURNED CALM AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WAS A NEARLY
15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE TOP OF THE INVERSION 500
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND TO THE SURFACE. ABOVE THIS INVERSION
LAYER...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN
FACT...ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION WAS NOTED FROM 950 TO 925MB DUE
TO AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THIS CONTINUED DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO DROPPED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN FROM
0.72 INCHES LAST EVENING TO 0.64 INCHES THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 192046
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO EAST TEXAS. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH AXIS FROM EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS ON A PLANER VIEW REVEALED AROUND
0.5 INCH OR LESS OVER EAST THIRD CONUS. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT FALL LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A
CLIPPER WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/EAST COAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. AS
A RESULT...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF ANY KIND OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE COAST AND DISPLACE MOISTURE EAST TO FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEK. ALL IN ALL...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 60S. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL
MID MORNING MONDAY. NO FOG OR APPRECIABLE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE CAA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWUNG THRU OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEED ARE
ALREADY FADING...AND WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THEREAFTER...MODERATE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF BY MID WEEK WHICH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  47  79  52 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  79  52  81  54 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  77  48  80  50 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  77  58  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  77  48  79  48 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 192046
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO EAST TEXAS. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH AXIS FROM EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER PLOTS ON A PLANER VIEW REVEALED AROUND
0.5 INCH OR LESS OVER EAST THIRD CONUS. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT FALL LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A
CLIPPER WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/EAST COAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. AS
A RESULT...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF ANY KIND OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE COAST AND DISPLACE MOISTURE EAST TO FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEK. ALL IN ALL...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 60S. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL
MID MORNING MONDAY. NO FOG OR APPRECIABLE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE CAA CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWUNG THRU OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEED ARE
ALREADY FADING...AND WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. THEREAFTER...MODERATE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF BY MID WEEK WHICH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  47  79  52 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  79  52  81  54 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  77  48  80  50 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  77  58  80  61 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  77  51  79  54 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  77  48  79  48 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 190820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE LANDMASS AND IS MOVING INTO
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AT 3 AM. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS HAS
DEPARTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT ARE STILL IN THE LOWER
70S NEAR THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO
THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER LAND.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS AND
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE
MOST PART. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE. BOTH MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
CUTS OFF THE LOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND HAS IT CENTERED OVER GEORGIA. BOTH
MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MOVE IT
TOWARD CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS SOLUTION IS FASTER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HAS IT IN THE
BAHAMAS SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS IT OVER
WESTERN CUBA. NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND OVER LAND. BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE ECMWF SOLUTION ONLY MOVES THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO NEAR MOBILE BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE 27TH. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AT THAT
TIME...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION...IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

NO RADICAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT MSY AND ESPECIALLY KNEW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND
THROUGH MID MORNING...THE NEAR WATERS THROUGH NOON...AND THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. THEREAFTER...MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  50  80  55 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  79  54  82  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  77  50  81  53 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  77  59  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  77  52  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  77  47  80  51 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 190820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE LANDMASS AND IS MOVING INTO
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AT 3 AM. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS HAS
DEPARTED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT ARE STILL IN THE LOWER
70S NEAR THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO
THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER IMPACTS OVER THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER LAND.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS AND
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE
MOST PART. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIVERGE. BOTH MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON THURSDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE ECMWF
CUTS OFF THE LOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER SYSTEM MORE OPEN AND HAS IT CENTERED OVER GEORGIA. BOTH
MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MOVE IT
TOWARD CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS SOLUTION IS FASTER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HAS IT IN THE
BAHAMAS SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS IT OVER
WESTERN CUBA. NEITHER SOLUTION PRODUCES ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND OVER LAND. BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE ECMWF SOLUTION ONLY MOVES THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO NEAR MOBILE BY MIDDAY MONDAY THE 27TH. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AT THAT
TIME...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION HAS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION...IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

NO RADICAL SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK DURING THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT MSY AND ESPECIALLY KNEW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND
THROUGH MID MORNING...THE NEAR WATERS THROUGH NOON...AND THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. THEREAFTER...MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  50  80  55 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  79  54  82  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  77  50  81  53 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  77  59  80  62 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  77  52  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  77  47  80  51 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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