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000
FXUS64 KLIX 211732
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...09Z TO
13Z...AT THE MORE TAF PRONE SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  88  58 /   0  10  20  10
BTR  91  69  88  62 /   0  10  20  10
ASD  90  68  90  61 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  89  73  89  70 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  90  71  91  66 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  89  69  90  63 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 210907
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
407 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WITH THIS FLOW
PATTERN IN PLACE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WHERE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE
GREATEST. OUTSIDE OF THE PASSING FRONT...A DRY FORECAST IS IN
PLACE FOR ALL OF THE LAND BASED ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE GULF
WATERS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE
REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SURGE OF DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR INLAND PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PARISHES.


.LONG TERM...

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS IS THE SPEED OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN
EITHER THE CMC OR THE ECMWF. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS OVER THE WEST
COAST...AS ENERGY DIGS INTO CALIFORNIA IT SHOULD BECOME CUT OFF
FROM THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
WESTERN CANADA. AS THE LOW CLOSES OFF AND BECOMES INDEPENDENT OF
THE JET STREAM TO THE NORTH IT WILL MEANDER OVER CALIFORNIA AND
THE FOUR CORNERS UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FINALLY KICKS THE SYSTEM TO
THE EAST. OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM ON WEDNESDAY AND BECOME FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GULF SOUTH WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD RIDGE AND THUS WILL BE STUCK FIRMLY IN
DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW.

THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
INITIALLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE GENERALLY CONFINED
TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...AS MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH RIDING AROUND THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH SLIDES THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH. INCREASED
VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS AND SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY AS A
RESULT...HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS.
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION IN
PLACE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO AREAS OF LIGHT FOG /BR/
FOR KMCB AND POSSIBLY KBTR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
ADDITIONAL AIRPORTS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
TEMPO IFR COULD OCCUR. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY OFFSHORE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...COULD IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS OR THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS ON
MONDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MENTION
IN THE TAFS WITH THE LATER TAF ISSUANCES TODAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH
GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS...WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY DOWN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS MOSTLY 5
FEET OR LESS. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS FOR THE LAKES...SOUNDS...AND NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY AND OUTER
COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A FAIRLY STRONG REINFORCING COLD FRONT...BRINGING THE FIRST AUTUMN
EPISODE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY DRY AIR...WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CREATE UNSTABLE NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE DUE
TO HIGHER AIR VERSUS WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS. THE MODELS
OFTER TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE THE WINDS IN THESE AUTUMN PATTERNS...SO
HAVE GONE WITH THE HIGHER MAV ADJUSTED WINDS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST OF SOUTHWEST
PASS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLER DRY AIRMASS OVER LAND AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY THEN WINDS EXCEEDING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE DURATION OF
STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE LONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
TIDES UP TO AT LEAST ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE EAST FACING
SHORELINES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOR LONGER RANGE
PLANNERS...WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS POINT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SUBSIDE
NEXT WEEKEND. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  88  58 /   0  10  20  10
BTR  91  69  88  62 /   0  10  20  10
ASD  90  68  90  61 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  89  73  89  70 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  90  71  91  66 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  89  69  90  63 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 210555
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

DID MINOR UPDATE TO WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY TO REMOVE MENTION
OF RAIN WHERE THE POP IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR NOW. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY OFFSHORE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED ABOVE 600MB AS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR HAS MOVED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF
MOISTURE RETURN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER COMPARED
TO WHAT WAS MEASURED THIS MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THEN
SWITCHED TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. A PEAK WIND OF 57 KNOTS WAS AT 40500 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THAT LASTED 113 MINUTES. THE
BALLOON BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 31.4
MILES DOWNRANGE SOUTH OF CHALMETTE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IN THE
SHORT-TERM. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT. A
PLEASANT SUNDAY IN STORE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO AREA
MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS THE
GULF BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINENTAL
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA POST-FRONTAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING UNDER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN. GULF
BREEZE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT INLAND EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTION TO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
24/RR

AVIATION...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER IMPACTING KHUM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...09Z TO 13Z...AT THE MORE FOG
PRONE TAF SITES. 11

MARINE...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE OFFSHORE TO INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE MID AND
WEEK LATE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  84  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  69  89  61  85 /  10  30  10  10
ASD  74  88  66  84 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  73  88  69  84 /  10  20  10  10
GPT  75  88  67  83 /  10  20  10  10
PQL  75  89  66  84 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 210555
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

DID MINOR UPDATE TO WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH MONDAY TO REMOVE MENTION
OF RAIN WHERE THE POP IS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR NOW. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY OFFSHORE/ WELL SOUTH OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED ABOVE 600MB AS
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR HAS MOVED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF
MOISTURE RETURN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER COMPARED
TO WHAT WAS MEASURED THIS MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THEN
SWITCHED TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. A PEAK WIND OF 57 KNOTS WAS AT 40500 FEET ABOVE
THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THAT LASTED 113 MINUTES. THE
BALLOON BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 31.4
MILES DOWNRANGE SOUTH OF CHALMETTE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IN THE
SHORT-TERM. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT. A
PLEASANT SUNDAY IN STORE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO AREA
MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS THE
GULF BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINENTAL
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA POST-FRONTAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING UNDER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN. GULF
BREEZE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT INLAND EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTION TO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
24/RR

AVIATION...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER IMPACTING KHUM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY LIGHT FOG COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...09Z TO 13Z...AT THE MORE FOG
PRONE TAF SITES. 11

MARINE...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE OFFSHORE TO INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE MID AND
WEEK LATE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  84  58  81 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  69  89  61  85 /  10  30  10  10
ASD  74  88  66  84 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  73  88  69  84 /  10  20  10  10
GPT  75  88  67  83 /  10  20  10  10
PQL  75  89  66  84 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 210104
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
804 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED ABOVE 600MB AS WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER COMPARED TO WHAT
WAS MEASURED THIS MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THEN SWITCHED TO
THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. A PEAK WIND OF 57 KNOTS WAS AT 40500 FEET ABOVE THE
GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THAT LASTED 113 MINUTES. THE
BALLOON BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 31.4
MILES DOWNRANGE SOUTH OF CHALMETTE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IN THE
SHORT-TERM. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT. A
PLEASANT SUNDAY IN STORE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO AREA
MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS THE
GULF BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINENTAL
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA POST-FRONTAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING UNDER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN. GULF
BREEZE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT INLAND EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTION TO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 24/RR

AVIATION...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IMPACTING KHUM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...09Z TO 13Z...AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. 11

MARINE...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE OFFSHORE TO INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE MID AND
WEEK LATE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  88  70  84 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  69  91  69  89 /  10   0  10  30
ASD  73  88  74  88 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  74  87  73  88 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  73  87  75  88 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  73  88  75  89 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 210104
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
804 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED ABOVE 600MB AS WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER COMPARED TO WHAT
WAS MEASURED THIS MORNING. WINDS THIS EVENING WERE FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THEN SWITCHED TO
THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE UPPER
LEVELS. A PEAK WIND OF 57 KNOTS WAS AT 40500 FEET ABOVE THE
GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THAT LASTED 113 MINUTES. THE
BALLOON BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 31.4
MILES DOWNRANGE SOUTH OF CHALMETTE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IN THE
SHORT-TERM. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT. A
PLEASANT SUNDAY IN STORE.

LONG TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO AREA
MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS THE
GULF BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINENTAL
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA POST-FRONTAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING UNDER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN. GULF
BREEZE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT INLAND EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTION TO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 24/RR

AVIATION...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IMPACTING KHUM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...09Z TO 13Z...AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. 11

MARINE...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE OFFSHORE TO INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE MID AND
WEEK LATE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  88  70  84 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  69  91  69  89 /  10   0  10  30
ASD  73  88  74  88 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  74  87  73  88 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  73  87  75  88 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  73  88  75  89 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 202027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IN THE
SHORT-TERM. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT. A
PLEASANT SUNDAY IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO AREA
MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS THE
GULF BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINENTAL
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA POST-FRONTAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING UNDER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN. GULF
BREEZE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT INLAND EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTION TO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IMPACTING KHUM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...09Z TO 13Z...AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. 11

&&

.MARINE...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE OFFSHORE TO INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE MID AND
WEEK LATE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  88  70 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  90  69  91  69 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  87  73  88  74 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  86  74  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  86  73  88  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR








000
FXUS64 KLIX 202027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IN THE
SHORT-TERM. EASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELAX TONIGHT. A
PLEASANT SUNDAY IN STORE.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS IN BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO AREA
MONDAY...ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS THE
GULF BREEZE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT LOW FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINENTAL
DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA POST-FRONTAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MODERATING UNDER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ONCE AGAIN. GULF
BREEZE FLOW BECOMES DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO LIMIT INLAND EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTION TO THE NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IMPACTING KHUM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY
LIGHT FOG COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...09Z TO 13Z...AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. 11

&&

.MARINE...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 7 PM TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE OFFSHORE TO INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME
EASTERLY BY MID WEEK AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE DURING THE MID AND
WEEK LATE PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  88  70 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  90  69  91  69 /   0  10   0  10
ASD  87  73  88  74 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  86  74  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  86  73  88  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLIX 201712
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KHUM THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  66  90  66 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  90  69  91  68 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10   0
MSY  89  75  90  74 /  10  10  10   0
GPT  89  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  67  89  68 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 201421
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
921 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1.26 INCHES THIS MORNING. ABOVE
H5 SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOWER HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE FRONT IS STALLED. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE EAST AT THE SURFACE WHICH HAS THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST. WINDS
ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE NORTH.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE NORTH GULF
COASTAL WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING DRY AIR SOUTHEAST. CONVERGENCE DUE
TO STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OFFSHORE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LESS HUMID AIR OVER MOST AREAS...AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AMPLIFY A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. USING A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND BRING
MORE OF A TASTE OF AUTUMN TO THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN CORRIDOR WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-10 IN LOUISIANA. EVEN THE HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 80S EXPECTED STARTING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOWS SHOULD
START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT OR REPOSITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. PERSISTENT
EASTERLIES NEAR THE COAST WITH INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST...OR SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE
THE DRY AIR WILL BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. 22/TD

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL GOMEX INTERACTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.  EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUNDS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS THE LOW DEGRADES IN THE GULF AND THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERLY FLOW TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO FALL BACK TO
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEADING INTO MONDAY...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN GOMEX BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASE BACK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD. 32

AVIATION...

A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT MCB...HDC...ASD...BTR...AND HUM WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
WORDING TO INCLUDE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  A VERY SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 09Z.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  66  90  66 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  90  69  91  68 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10   0
MSY  89  75  90  74 /  10  10  10   0
GPT  89  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  67  89  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLIX 201421
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
921 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER IN WITH PW VALUES DOWN TO 1.26 INCHES THIS MORNING. ABOVE
H5 SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOWER HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE FRONT IS STALLED. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE EAST AT THE SURFACE WHICH HAS THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST. WINDS
ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE NORTH.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE NORTH GULF
COASTAL WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING DRY AIR SOUTHEAST. CONVERGENCE DUE
TO STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OFFSHORE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LESS HUMID AIR OVER MOST AREAS...AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AMPLIFY A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. USING A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND BRING
MORE OF A TASTE OF AUTUMN TO THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN CORRIDOR WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-10 IN LOUISIANA. EVEN THE HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 80S EXPECTED STARTING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOWS SHOULD
START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT OR REPOSITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. PERSISTENT
EASTERLIES NEAR THE COAST WITH INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST...OR SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE
THE DRY AIR WILL BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. 22/TD

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL GOMEX INTERACTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.  EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUNDS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS THE LOW DEGRADES IN THE GULF AND THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERLY FLOW TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO FALL BACK TO
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEADING INTO MONDAY...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN GOMEX BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASE BACK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD. 32

AVIATION...

A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT MCB...HDC...ASD...BTR...AND HUM WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
WORDING TO INCLUDE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  A VERY SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 09Z.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  66  90  66 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  90  69  91  68 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10   0
MSY  89  75  90  74 /  10  10  10   0
GPT  89  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  67  89  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 201009
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
509 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE NORTH GULF
COASTAL WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING DRY AIR SOUTHEAST. CONVERGENCE DUE
TO STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OFFSHORE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LESS HUMID AIR OVER MOST AREAS...AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AMPLIFY A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. USING A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND BRING
MORE OF A TASTE OF AUTUMN TO THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN CORRIDOR WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-10 IN LOUISIANA. EVEN THE HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 80S EXPECTED STARTING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOWS SHOULD
START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT OR REPOSITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. PERSISTENT
EASTERLIES NEAR THE COAST WITH INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST...OR SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE
THE DRY AIR WILL BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL GOMEX INTERACTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.  EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUNDS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS THE LOW DEGRADES IN THE GULF AND THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERLY FLOW TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO FALL BACK TO
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEADING INTO MONDAY...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN GOMEX BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASE BACK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD. 32

&&

.AVIATION...

A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT MCB...HDC...ASD...BTR...AND HUM WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
WORDING TO INCLUDE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  A VERY SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 09Z.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  66  90  66 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  90  69  91  68 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10   0
MSY  89  75  90  74 /  10  10  10   0
GPT  89  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  67  89  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 201009
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
509 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE NORTH GULF
COASTAL WATERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING DRY AIR SOUTHEAST. CONVERGENCE DUE
TO STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OFFSHORE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE
NORTH GULF COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE GULF STATES WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
LESS HUMID AIR OVER MOST AREAS...AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AMPLIFY A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. USING A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

ANOTHER PUSH OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND BRING
MORE OF A TASTE OF AUTUMN TO THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN CORRIDOR WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF I-10 IN LOUISIANA. EVEN THE HIGHS
SHOULD BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 80S EXPECTED STARTING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOWS SHOULD
START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT OR REPOSITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. PERSISTENT
EASTERLIES NEAR THE COAST WITH INVERTED TROUGH FEATURES MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST...OR SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL AREAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE
THE DRY AIR WILL BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL GOMEX INTERACTS WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.  EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
IN THE SOUNDS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS THE LOW DEGRADES IN THE GULF AND THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERLY FLOW TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO FALL BACK TO
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET BY SUNDAY EVENING. HEADING INTO MONDAY...A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN GOMEX BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH...THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY
FLOW INCREASE BACK TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD. 32

&&

.AVIATION...

A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP AT MCB...HDC...ASD...BTR...AND HUM WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
WORDING TO INCLUDE MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  A VERY SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 09Z.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  66  90  66 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  90  69  91  68 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  89  69  90  69 /  10  10  10   0
MSY  89  75  90  74 /  10  10  10   0
GPT  89  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  88  67  89  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 200436
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT THE
MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  88  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  68  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  69  89  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  88  75  91 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  88  67  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 200436
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT THE
MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  88  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  68  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  69  89  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  88  75  91 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  88  67  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200116
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
816 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS NOTED
ON WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THIS MEANS CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER. WITH THE COLUMN DRYING
OUT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO DROPPING AND ARE AT 1.45
INCHES. THIS IS ABOUT A HALF INCH LOWER THAN THIS MORNING/S
SOUNDING AND ABOUT A QUARTER INCH BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE.
INSTABILITY HAS ALSO DECREASED WITH MLCAPES CALCULATED NEAR 150
J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX AROUND -2. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FOLLOWED
THE PSEUDO ADIABATS ABOVE 700MB WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS AROUND 575MB AND 430MB. LOW LEVEL WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO
25 KNOTS FROM THE EAST CARRIED THE BALLOON TO LACOMBE BEFORE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST CARRIED THE BALLOON OVER
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
OF 43 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 32500 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS EVENING THAT REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING 26.7 MILES DOWNRANGE
JUST EAST OF CHALMETTE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NORTH
FLORIDA TO COASTAL LOUISIANA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHEAST CONUS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
LOUISIANA..DRY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE DEMARCATION LINE FROM
PENSACOLA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO LAKE CHARLES WITH MID LAYER
DRYING NORTH. WRF3KM SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH HALF ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
HAMPER DEEP GROWTH AND CONVECTION.

SHORT TERM...
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ZONES TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET AND CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW NORTHERN POINTS TO RADIATE. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
ZONES BUT REMAINING THE 70S FOR SOUTH ZONES AND REPEAT POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH
FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD BELOW 1 INCHES BY SATURDAY AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1 INCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER...MID
LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE PASSAGE AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TSRA MONDAY
THRU MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. 1000 TO 700MB LAYERS
BEHIND THIS TROUGH DECREASE ONLY 10 TO 15 METERS. HOWEVER...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH
ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO EURO AND GFS. WILL NOT GO AS
LOW AS MEX NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THESE TEMPS WILL PROVIDE
AC RELIEF MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS...A HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY...CREATING A MORE EAST FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THUS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH ZONES.

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CNTRL GULF HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS. THIS IS LEADING TO WINDS ABV 20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THUS HAVE
ISSUED A SCY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND
SOUNDS. SEAS WILL RISE TO AS MUCH AS 7 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS LOW WILL PULL TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO
2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
THE MARINE ZONES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS SOME DRIER AIR
ADVECTS OVER THE AREA...A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS BACK TOWARD
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE FOR THE MOST PART BUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE VERY EARLY EVNG HRS SOME
VERY SHALLOW SHRA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE WE LOSE
THE DAYTIME HEATING WHAT EVER CONVECTION IS OUT THERE WILL
DISSIPATE. ONCE THIS OCCURS LOOK FOR SOME CU AROUND 4-5 FT BUT
OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  88  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  68  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  69  89  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  88  75  91 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  88  67  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200116
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
816 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS NOTED
ON WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THIS MEANS CONDITIONS ARE QUITE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER. WITH THE COLUMN DRYING
OUT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO DROPPING AND ARE AT 1.45
INCHES. THIS IS ABOUT A HALF INCH LOWER THAN THIS MORNING/S
SOUNDING AND ABOUT A QUARTER INCH BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE.
INSTABILITY HAS ALSO DECREASED WITH MLCAPES CALCULATED NEAR 150
J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX AROUND -2. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FOLLOWED
THE PSEUDO ADIABATS ABOVE 700MB WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS AROUND 575MB AND 430MB. LOW LEVEL WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO
25 KNOTS FROM THE EAST CARRIED THE BALLOON TO LACOMBE BEFORE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST CARRIED THE BALLOON OVER
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
OF 43 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 32500 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS EVENING THAT REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING 26.7 MILES DOWNRANGE
JUST EAST OF CHALMETTE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NORTH
FLORIDA TO COASTAL LOUISIANA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHEAST CONUS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
LOUISIANA..DRY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE DEMARCATION LINE FROM
PENSACOLA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO LAKE CHARLES WITH MID LAYER
DRYING NORTH. WRF3KM SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH HALF ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
HAMPER DEEP GROWTH AND CONVECTION.

SHORT TERM...
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ZONES TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET AND CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW NORTHERN POINTS TO RADIATE. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
ZONES BUT REMAINING THE 70S FOR SOUTH ZONES AND REPEAT POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH
FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD BELOW 1 INCHES BY SATURDAY AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1 INCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER...MID
LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE PASSAGE AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TSRA MONDAY
THRU MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. 1000 TO 700MB LAYERS
BEHIND THIS TROUGH DECREASE ONLY 10 TO 15 METERS. HOWEVER...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH
ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO EURO AND GFS. WILL NOT GO AS
LOW AS MEX NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT THESE TEMPS WILL PROVIDE
AC RELIEF MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS...A HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY...CREATING A MORE EAST FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THUS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH ZONES.

MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CNTRL GULF HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS. THIS IS LEADING TO WINDS ABV 20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THUS HAVE
ISSUED A SCY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND
SOUNDS. SEAS WILL RISE TO AS MUCH AS 7 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS LOW WILL PULL TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO
2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
THE MARINE ZONES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS SOME DRIER AIR
ADVECTS OVER THE AREA...A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS BACK TOWARD
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE FOR THE MOST PART BUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE VERY EARLY EVNG HRS SOME
VERY SHALLOW SHRA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE WE LOSE
THE DAYTIME HEATING WHAT EVER CONVECTION IS OUT THERE WILL
DISSIPATE. ONCE THIS OCCURS LOOK FOR SOME CU AROUND 4-5 FT BUT
OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  88  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  68  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  69  89  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  88  75  91 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  88  67  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 192043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NORTH
FLORIDA TO COASTAL LOUISIANA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHEAST CONUS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
LOUISIANA..DRY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE DEMARCATION LINE FROM
PENSACOLA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO LAKE CHARLES WITH MID LAYER
DRYING NORTH. WRF3KM SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH HALF ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
HAMPER DEEP GROWTH AND CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ZONES TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET AND CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW NORTHERN POINTS TO RADIATE. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
ZONES BUT REMAINING THE 70S FOR SOUTH ZONES AND REPEAT POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH
FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD BELOW 1 INCHES BY SATURDAY AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1 INCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER...MID
LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE PASSAGE AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TSRA MONDAY
MONDAY THRU MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. 1000 TO 700MB
LAYERS BEHIND THIS TROUGH DECREASE ONLY 10 TO 15 METERS.
HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO EURO
AND GFS. WILL NOT GO AS LOW AS MEX NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT
THESE TEMPS WILL PROVIDE AC RELIEF MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. WITH
THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS...A HIGH WILL
DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...CREATING A MORE EAST
FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THUS INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CNTRL GULF HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS. THIS IS LEADING TO WINDS ABV 20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THUS HAVE
ISSUED A SCY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND
SOUNDS. SEAS WILL RISE TO AS MUCH AS 7 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS LOW WILL PULL TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO
2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
THE MARINE ZONES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS SOME DRIER AIR
ADVECTS OVER THE AREA...A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS BACK TOWARD
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE FOR THE MOST PART BUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE VERY EARLY EVNG HRS SOME
VERY SHALLOW SHRA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE WE LOSE
THE DAYTIME HEATING WHAT EVER CONVECTION IS OUT THERE WILL
DISSIPATE. ONCE THIS OCCURS LOOK FOR SOME CU AROUND 4-5 FT BUT
OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  88  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  68  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  69  89  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  88  75  91 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  88  67  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 192043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NORTH
FLORIDA TO COASTAL LOUISIANA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHEAST CONUS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
LOUISIANA..DRY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF. WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE DEMARCATION LINE FROM
PENSACOLA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO LAKE CHARLES WITH MID LAYER
DRYING NORTH. WRF3KM SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTH HALF ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD
HAMPER DEEP GROWTH AND CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF ZONES TONIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET AND CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW NORTHERN POINTS TO RADIATE. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
ZONES BUT REMAINING THE 70S FOR SOUTH ZONES AND REPEAT POSSIBLY A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO
THE EAST WILL SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH
FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD BELOW 1 INCHES BY SATURDAY AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1 INCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE LOUISIANA COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER...MID
LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE PASSAGE AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TSRA MONDAY
MONDAY THRU MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. 1000 TO 700MB
LAYERS BEHIND THIS TROUGH DECREASE ONLY 10 TO 15 METERS.
HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES BY TUESDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO EURO
AND GFS. WILL NOT GO AS LOW AS MEX NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT
THESE TEMPS WILL PROVIDE AC RELIEF MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. WITH
THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS...A HIGH WILL
DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...CREATING A MORE EAST
FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THUS INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH ZONES.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CNTRL GULF HAS
TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS. THIS IS LEADING TO WINDS ABV 20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND THUS HAVE
ISSUED A SCY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND
SOUNDS. SEAS WILL RISE TO AS MUCH AS 7 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS EAST
OF THE MS RIVER. THIS LOW WILL PULL TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
EXPECT TO SEE EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO
2 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH
THE MARINE ZONES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS SOME DRIER AIR
ADVECTS OVER THE AREA...A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS BACK TOWARD
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE FOR THE MOST PART BUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND INTO THE VERY EARLY EVNG HRS SOME
VERY SHALLOW SHRA WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ONCE WE LOSE
THE DAYTIME HEATING WHAT EVER CONVECTION IS OUT THERE WILL
DISSIPATE. ONCE THIS OCCURS LOOK FOR SOME CU AROUND 4-5 FT BUT
OVERALL SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  88  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  68  90  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  69  89  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  74  88  75  91 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  73  89  71  91 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  69  88  67  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 190842
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS RUNNING
ITS COURSE THIS MORNING WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC PROCESSES
UNDERWAY. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILTER
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR A DRIER DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BECOME ENHANCED ON LAKE BREEZE.
WILL MAINTAIN 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 00Z
BUT DRYING OUT STEADILY IN THE EVENING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD
ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY DRIER OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONSENSUS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
MONDAY THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE LESS PRONOUNCED WITH RAINFALL
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIVERGES WITH ITS
PASSAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY THEN MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CONTINENTAL
HIGH TO BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY...BUT ONLY
WORTHY OF 20-30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLOW TREND TOWARDS NORMALS BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
AN EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MORE COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KHUM...KMSY...AND KGPT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AND LOW
CEILING FORMATION AT KMCB...KHDC...KBTR...KASD WHERE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERSION MAY DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING.  THE INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LINGER THROUGH AROUND 18Z AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.   AS THE
DISTURBANCE PULLS TO THE EAST AND SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN
ALOFT...THE CLOUD DECK WILL RISE ABOVE 12K FEET AND ALSO BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 10Z...WHICH MAY LEAD SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION AT KMCB AND
KHUM.  AT MOST...A PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
FOG. 32

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM TEXAS TOWARD FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTANT GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  THE GRADIENT SHOULD MAXIMIZE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH
EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET IN THE OUTER GULF WATERS WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS IN THE SOUNDS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS POSTED FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND
POSSIBLY THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THIS LOW WILL PULL TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FEET
DURING THIS PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE MARINE
ZONES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA...A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS BACK TOWARD EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  70  87  69 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  87  70  88  71 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  87  71  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
MSY  87  74  89  75 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  87  73  87  71 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  88  69  88  68 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32








000
FXUS64 KLIX 190842
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS RUNNING
ITS COURSE THIS MORNING WITH SOME FRONTOGENETIC PROCESSES
UNDERWAY. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILTER
SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR A DRIER DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BECOME ENHANCED ON LAKE BREEZE.
WILL MAINTAIN 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT AREA THROUGH 00Z
BUT DRYING OUT STEADILY IN THE EVENING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD
ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY DRIER OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONSENSUS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
MONDAY THOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE LESS PRONOUNCED WITH RAINFALL
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIVERGES WITH ITS
PASSAGE. HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY THEN MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CONTINENTAL
HIGH TO BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY...BUT ONLY
WORTHY OF 20-30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A SLOW TREND TOWARDS NORMALS BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
AN EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MORE COASTAL TERMINALS
SUCH AS KHUM...KMSY...AND KGPT. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AND LOW
CEILING FORMATION AT KMCB...KHDC...KBTR...KASD WHERE A WEAK LOW
LEVEL INVERSION MAY DEVELOP BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING.  THE INVERSION
SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LINGER THROUGH AROUND 18Z AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.   AS THE
DISTURBANCE PULLS TO THE EAST AND SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN
ALOFT...THE CLOUD DECK WILL RISE ABOVE 12K FEET AND ALSO BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  ANOTHER WEAK INVERSION MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 10Z...WHICH MAY LEAD SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION AT KMCB AND
KHUM.  AT MOST...A PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
FOG. 32

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM TEXAS TOWARD FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.  THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTANT GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.  THE GRADIENT SHOULD MAXIMIZE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH
EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET IN THE OUTER GULF WATERS WITH 2 TO 4 FEET SEAS IN THE SOUNDS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS POSTED FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND
POSSIBLY THE CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
THIS LOW WILL PULL TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  EXPECT TO SEE
EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FEET
DURING THIS PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE MARINE
ZONES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  AS SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA...A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS BACK TOWARD EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  70  87  69 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  87  70  88  71 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  87  71  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
MSY  87  74  89  75 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  87  73  87  71 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  88  69  88  68 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32









000
FXUS64 KLIX 190436
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COULD AFFECT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL OF THE TAF FORECASTS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND AT THE MORE COASTAL TAF SITES. SOME LOW CEILINGS AND/OR
FOG MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  87  67  88 /  40   0  10  10
BTR  68  86  70  87 /  50  10  10  10
ASD  74  84  76  87 /  40  20  10  10
MSY  73  84  76  89 /  50  20  10  10
GPT  75  87  76  86 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  74  87  75  87 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 190436
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1136 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COULD AFFECT ANY OF
THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT...TEMPO GROUPS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL BE INCLUDED IN ALL OF THE TAF FORECASTS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AND AT THE MORE COASTAL TAF SITES. SOME LOW CEILINGS AND/OR
FOG MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  87  67  88 /  40   0  10  10
BTR  68  86  70  87 /  50  10  10  10
ASD  74  84  76  87 /  40  20  10  10
MSY  73  84  76  89 /  50  20  10  10
GPT  75  87  76  86 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  74  87  75  87 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 182037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOISTURE THAT GOT PUSHED INTO THE GULF YSTRY...BACK INTO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH MOST ONGOING SHOWERS IN THE CWA ARE SOUTH OF THE LA
COAST...A FEW HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS. MCV CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN LA/TX BORDER APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST...MORESO ON THE COASTAL INTERFACE BETWEEN
VERMILLION BAY AND THE TX BORDER. HRRR DOES SHOW SOME BLOWOVER FROM
THAT FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE CWA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE IN A A
DECAYING PHASE. SO ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT WITH NOT TOO HIGH OF
QPF OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
BEFOREHAND.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS SLIGHT
UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION AND HAVE LIMITED CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ONLY COASTAL AREAS SEEING ANY STORMS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING
THE NEXT SOMEWHAT DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS MAY COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH THE POSSIBILITY IF LOWER 60S
FOR MORNING LOWS IN THE SOUTHWEST MS ZONES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW
DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS
COAST AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD
FLORIDA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS.  WITH STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE MOST
ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH HEATING GOING ON TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING REPORTED YET.
MAIN CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MESOSCALE
MODELING TENDS TO PICK UP ONE OF THESE AREAS...BUT NOT BOTH. IN
EITHER CASE...ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAL COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY VCTS IN MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGPT AND KASD. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
SHOULD HANG IN OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  87  67  88 /  30   0  10  10
BTR  68  86  70  87 /  50  10  10  10
ASD  74  84  76  87 /  30  20  10  10
MSY  73  84  76  89 /  50  20  10  10
GPT  75  87  76  86 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  74  87  75  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 182037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IS IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
MOISTURE THAT GOT PUSHED INTO THE GULF YSTRY...BACK INTO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH MOST ONGOING SHOWERS IN THE CWA ARE SOUTH OF THE LA
COAST...A FEW HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS. MCV CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN LA/TX BORDER APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST...MORESO ON THE COASTAL INTERFACE BETWEEN
VERMILLION BAY AND THE TX BORDER. HRRR DOES SHOW SOME BLOWOVER FROM
THAT FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE CWA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE IN A A
DECAYING PHASE. SO ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGHER IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT WITH NOT TOO HIGH OF
QPF OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
BEFOREHAND.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS SLIGHT
UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION AND HAVE LIMITED CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
ONLY COASTAL AREAS SEEING ANY STORMS. GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOWING
THE NEXT SOMEWHAT DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
TEMPS MAY COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES WITH THE POSSIBILITY IF LOWER 60S
FOR MORNING LOWS IN THE SOUTHWEST MS ZONES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW
DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS
COAST AND THEN PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD
FLORIDA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS.  WITH STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE MOST
ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH HEATING GOING ON TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING REPORTED YET.
MAIN CONVECTION IS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. MESOSCALE
MODELING TENDS TO PICK UP ONE OF THESE AREAS...BUT NOT BOTH. IN
EITHER CASE...ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAL COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL CARRY VCTS IN MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGPT AND KASD. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
SHOULD HANG IN OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PRECLUDE A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  87  67  88 /  30   0  10  10
BTR  68  86  70  87 /  50  10  10  10
ASD  74  84  76  87 /  30  20  10  10
MSY  73  84  76  89 /  50  20  10  10
GPT  75  87  76  86 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  74  87  75  87 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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