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000
FXUS64 KLIX 270808
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
308 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUIET NIGHT OVER THE CWA BUT WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
ACTIVITY WORKING SE OUT OF NERN TX AND INTO WRN LA. THIS SHOULD
IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE AND INCREASED LIFT STREAMING IN FROM THE PAC
OVER THE DESERT SW.

TODAY SHOULD BE FAR MORE ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY. WE HAVE NOW
RECOVERED AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. COMBINE THAT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TODAY...THE COMPLEX MOVING IN FROM THE NW...WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT...AND THE INCREASE IN LIFT WORKING IN AND WE
SHOULD SEE SCT TO NUM SHRA AND TSRA WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE COVERAGE AS ADDED INFLUENCE FROM THE
SEA/LAKE BREEZE KICKS IN. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE SWRN MS COUNTIES AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HUM TO NBG. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS...THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND THIS SHOULD GET A FEW STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER
FROM DEVELOPING. MAIN CONCERN FROM STORMS WILL STRONG TO DAMAGING
STRAIGHTLINE WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.

AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS ON
THU AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN. GIVEN THAT...AFTN HEATING AND ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD NOT HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY ALL DAY. ISLTD
TO SCT STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THU. AS
WE HEAD INTO FRI AND THE WEEKEND THINGS WILL BECOME MORE
SUMMERLIKE AS CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL INFLUENCES.
AFTN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER LAND AREAS AND THEN ISLTD ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARDS THE MARINE ZONES. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION... TAFS ARE STILL CONTINGENT ON DEVELOPMENTS WITH SQUALL
LINE ADVANCING OUT OF NE TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTERACTING
WITH GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF SQUALL. INDICATING
TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 17Z-21Z THAT MAY NEED TEMPORAL
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION.

MEFFER/RR

&&

.MARINE... BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 8 TO 14 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID WEEKEND
WILL BREAK DOWN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LEAD TO WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
OVER THE AREA. THUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX SUNDAY THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND SEAS LESS THAN A FOOT.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  70  85  69 /  50  30  50  20
BTR  87  71  86  71 /  60  30  50  20
ASD  86  72  85  72 /  60  30  40  20
MSY  86  74  86  74 /  50  20  40  20
GPT  84  74  85  74 /  60  30  40  20
PQL  84  71  85  71 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
MARINE/AVIATION: MEFFER




000
FXUS64 KLIX 270808
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
308 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUIET NIGHT OVER THE CWA BUT WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
ACTIVITY WORKING SE OUT OF NERN TX AND INTO WRN LA. THIS SHOULD
IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE AND INCREASED LIFT STREAMING IN FROM THE PAC
OVER THE DESERT SW.

TODAY SHOULD BE FAR MORE ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY. WE HAVE NOW
RECOVERED AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. COMBINE THAT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING TODAY...THE COMPLEX MOVING IN FROM THE NW...WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT...AND THE INCREASE IN LIFT WORKING IN AND WE
SHOULD SEE SCT TO NUM SHRA AND TSRA WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE COVERAGE AS ADDED INFLUENCE FROM THE
SEA/LAKE BREEZE KICKS IN. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE SWRN MS COUNTIES AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HUM TO NBG. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS...THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND THIS SHOULD GET A FEW STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE. LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER
FROM DEVELOPING. MAIN CONCERN FROM STORMS WILL STRONG TO DAMAGING
STRAIGHTLINE WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.

AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS ON
THU AS S/W RIDGING MOVES IN. GIVEN THAT...AFTN HEATING AND ONLY WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD NOT HOLD CONVECTION AT BAY ALL DAY. ISLTD
TO SCT STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON THU. AS
WE HEAD INTO FRI AND THE WEEKEND THINGS WILL BECOME MORE
SUMMERLIKE AS CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL INFLUENCES.
AFTN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER LAND AREAS AND THEN ISLTD ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARDS THE MARINE ZONES. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION... TAFS ARE STILL CONTINGENT ON DEVELOPMENTS WITH SQUALL
LINE ADVANCING OUT OF NE TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTERACTING
WITH GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF SQUALL. INDICATING
TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 17Z-21Z THAT MAY NEED TEMPORAL
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION.

MEFFER/RR

&&

.MARINE... BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 8 TO 14 KNOT RANGE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MID WEEKEND
WILL BREAK DOWN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LEAD TO WEAK PRESSURE FIELD
OVER THE AREA. THUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX SUNDAY THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND SEAS LESS THAN A FOOT.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  70  85  69 /  50  30  50  20
BTR  87  71  86  71 /  60  30  50  20
ASD  86  72  85  72 /  60  30  40  20
MSY  86  74  86  74 /  50  20  40  20
GPT  84  74  85  74 /  60  30  40  20
PQL  84  71  85  71 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
MARINE/AVIATION: MEFFER





000
FXUS64 KLIX 270503
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS ARE GOING TO CONTINGENT ON DEVELOPMENTS WITH SQUALL
LINE ADVANCING OUT OF NE TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND INTERACTING WITH GULF
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF SQUALL. INDICATING TEMPO
GROUPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 17Z-21Z THAT MAY NEED TEMPORAL
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGEAS
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GOING
FORECAST. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THROUGH GENERAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

ONE WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING
COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS...BUT ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT TO SEE AN
ELEVATED INVERSION FORM OVER THE AREA.  AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS AROUND 09Z.  DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL LIFT THE CEILINGS BACK INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 14Z.

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH THE WORK WEEK.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE
FIELD BECOMES LESS DEFINED AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  70  86  69 /  60  20  40  20
BTR  83  72  87  71 /  60  10  30  30
ASD  83  73  85  72 /  80  20  40  30
MSY  84  74  86  74 /  70  10  30  20
GPT  82  74  84  74 / 100  30  50  30
PQL  82  73  84  71 / 100  40  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 262031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGEAS
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GOING
FORECAST. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THROUGH GENERAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

ONE WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING
COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS...BUT ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT TO SEE AN
ELEVATED INVERSION FORM OVER THE AREA.  AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS AROUND 09Z.  DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL LIFT THE CEILINGS BACK INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH THE WORK WEEK.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE
FIELD BECOMES LESS DEFINED AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  86  69  85 /  30  60  40  40
BTR  72  87  71  86 /  30  60  40  40
ASD  73  85  72  85 /  30  60  40  40
MSY  74  86  74  86 /  30  60  40  40
GPT  74  84  74  84 /  30  60  40  30
PQL  73  84  71  85 /  30  60  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 262031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGEAS
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GOING
FORECAST. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THROUGH GENERAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

ONE WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING
COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS...BUT ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY
WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT TO SEE AN
ELEVATED INVERSION FORM OVER THE AREA.  AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL
OF THE TERMINALS AROUND 09Z.  DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL LIFT THE CEILINGS BACK INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH THE WORK WEEK.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE
FIELD BECOMES LESS DEFINED AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  86  69  85 /  30  60  40  40
BTR  72  87  71  86 /  30  60  40  40
ASD  73  85  72  85 /  30  60  40  40
MSY  74  86  74  86 /  30  60  40  40
GPT  74  84  74  84 /  30  60  40  30
PQL  73  84  71  85 /  30  60  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 261719
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 12K
FEET...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD TRY TO
REDEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO TERMINALS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. BY 08Z...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS THE ATMOSPHERE TURNS MORE STABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
AN ELEVATED INVERSION. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 09Z AND LINGER
THROUGH AROUND 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
LIFT THE CEILINGS BACK INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  86  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
BTR  72  87  70  86 /  60  60  50  60
ASD  72  85  71  85 /  60  60  60  50
MSY  73  86  73  86 /  50  60  50  50
GPT  74  84  73  84 /  60  60  50  40
PQL  72  84  70  85 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 261719
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 12K
FEET...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD TRY TO
REDEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO TERMINALS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. BY 08Z...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS THE ATMOSPHERE TURNS MORE STABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
AN ELEVATED INVERSION. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 09Z AND LINGER
THROUGH AROUND 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
LIFT THE CEILINGS BACK INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  86  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
BTR  72  87  70  86 /  60  60  50  60
ASD  72  85  71  85 /  60  60  60  50
MSY  73  86  73  86 /  50  60  50  50
GPT  74  84  73  84 /  60  60  50  40
PQL  72  84  70  85 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32




000
FXUS64 KLIX 261719
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 12K
FEET...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD TRY TO
REDEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO TERMINALS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. BY 08Z...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS THE ATMOSPHERE TURNS MORE STABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
AN ELEVATED INVERSION. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 09Z AND LINGER
THROUGH AROUND 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
LIFT THE CEILINGS BACK INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  86  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
BTR  72  87  70  86 /  60  60  50  60
ASD  72  85  71  85 /  60  60  60  50
MSY  73  86  73  86 /  50  60  50  50
GPT  74  84  73  84 /  60  60  50  40
PQL  72  84  70  85 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 261719
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1219 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL DECK AROUND 12K
FEET...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD TRY TO
REDEVELOP BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO TERMINALS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. BY 08Z...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS THE ATMOSPHERE TURNS MORE STABLE.
HOWEVER...THIS STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
AN ELEVATED INVERSION. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 09Z AND LINGER
THROUGH AROUND 14Z. DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL
LIFT THE CEILINGS BACK INTO VFR RANGE AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  86  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
BTR  72  87  70  86 /  60  60  50  60
ASD  72  85  71  85 /  60  60  60  50
MSY  73  86  73  86 /  50  60  50  50
GPT  74  84  73  84 /  60  60  50  40
PQL  72  84  70  85 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32




000
FXUS64 KLIX 261341
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
841 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING REPRESENTS AN ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER BY STORMS JUST A COUPLE HOURS PRIOR. THE PROFILE IS
NEARLY SATURATED THROUGHOUT WITH PW AT 1.88 INCHES. WINDS WERE
SHOWN TO BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE MCS FROM THE SFC TO 750 MB THEN
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ABOVE EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST
FROM 240 TO 170 MB. THE MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN AND AIRMASS
RECOVERY COULD TAKE PLACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER TODAY.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO FAR.
THINGS PICKED UP QUICK AS A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE AREA AS
STRONG SQUALLINE WAS APPROACHING AND ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF IT. ONE VERY INTERESTING STORM MOVED THROUGH
N.O. AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPED A TORNADO. THE OFFICE DID A 6Z SNDG
AND THIS SHOWED DECENT ROTATION IN THE LL WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 189
M2/S2. THIS EXPLAINS WHY THESE SHALLOW STORMS HAVE INTERESTING LOOKS
TO THE THEM.

OVERALL MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FCST WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION. FIRST THE SVR ASPECT
TODAY OR MORE SO EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN WE WILL FOCUS ON FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. ABUNDANT STRONG LL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A SMALL THREAT OF SVR WEATHER. TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE SHORTEST ASPECT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER AS
THE SQUALLINE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH THE SVR THREAT WILL END. WE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DROPPING
PARISHES AND COUNTIES OUT OF THE TOR WATCH.

AS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO
HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AND IF/WHERE THIS OCCURS IT COULD
LEAD TO RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL LATER. PWS ON THE 6Z SNDG WERE AT 1.9
AND THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT. BTR HAD ALMOST 1.5
INCHES IN ABOUT 45 MINS. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT LOSE ANY MOISTURE AND
THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA
LATER THIS MORNING BUT AS THE NEXT IMPULSE(ALREADY MOVING INTO SRN
TX FROM MEXICO) PUSHES INTO THE REGION NUM STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN BIG CONCERN WILL BE WHERE THIS LINE FINALLY
LAYS UP AS IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS. CONVECTION COULD BE HEAVIEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND THEN FINALLY PUSH EAST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WE COULD INITIALLY BE UNDER THE RRQ
OF THE JET WHICH COULD AID IN EFFICIENCY OF STORMS. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS MOMENT BUT
WILL NEED TO ASSESS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. TOMORROW WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
MOVE ACROSS. AS WE MOVE INTO THU WE WILL MOVE UNDER S/W RIDGING BUT
HGHTS WILL ACTUALLY NOT CHANGE AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT
WITH PWS ABV 1.75 AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
AFTER SOME DECENT HEATING. HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND WE WILL MOVE UNDER A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND SCT CONVECTION
SHOULD ACTUALLY POP RATHER EARLY FRI/SAT/SUN. /CAB/

MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BUT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOME BY THU.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE FIELD BECOMES LESS DEFINED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SFC LOW SITTING OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. /CAB/

AVIATION...

A POTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND  WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING IFR TO ALL TERMINALS DURING THE 8Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.  BKN TO OVC CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...TORNADO WATCH
             FLASH FLOOD WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  70  86  68 /  70  60  60  50
BTR  85  72  87  70 /  70  60  60  50
ASD  85  72  85  71 /  80  60  60  60
MSY  86  73  86  73 /  70  50  60  50
GPT  84  74  84  73 / 100  60  60  50
PQL  84  72  84  70 / 100  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 261341
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
841 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING REPRESENTS AN ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER BY STORMS JUST A COUPLE HOURS PRIOR. THE PROFILE IS
NEARLY SATURATED THROUGHOUT WITH PW AT 1.88 INCHES. WINDS WERE
SHOWN TO BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE MCS FROM THE SFC TO 750 MB THEN
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ABOVE EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST
FROM 240 TO 170 MB. THE MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN AND AIRMASS
RECOVERY COULD TAKE PLACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER TODAY.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO FAR.
THINGS PICKED UP QUICK AS A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE AREA AS
STRONG SQUALLINE WAS APPROACHING AND ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF IT. ONE VERY INTERESTING STORM MOVED THROUGH
N.O. AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPED A TORNADO. THE OFFICE DID A 6Z SNDG
AND THIS SHOWED DECENT ROTATION IN THE LL WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 189
M2/S2. THIS EXPLAINS WHY THESE SHALLOW STORMS HAVE INTERESTING LOOKS
TO THE THEM.

OVERALL MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FCST WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION. FIRST THE SVR ASPECT
TODAY OR MORE SO EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN WE WILL FOCUS ON FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. ABUNDANT STRONG LL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A SMALL THREAT OF SVR WEATHER. TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE SHORTEST ASPECT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER AS
THE SQUALLINE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH THE SVR THREAT WILL END. WE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DROPPING
PARISHES AND COUNTIES OUT OF THE TOR WATCH.

AS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO
HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AND IF/WHERE THIS OCCURS IT COULD
LEAD TO RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL LATER. PWS ON THE 6Z SNDG WERE AT 1.9
AND THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT. BTR HAD ALMOST 1.5
INCHES IN ABOUT 45 MINS. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT LOSE ANY MOISTURE AND
THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA
LATER THIS MORNING BUT AS THE NEXT IMPULSE(ALREADY MOVING INTO SRN
TX FROM MEXICO) PUSHES INTO THE REGION NUM STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN BIG CONCERN WILL BE WHERE THIS LINE FINALLY
LAYS UP AS IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS. CONVECTION COULD BE HEAVIEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND THEN FINALLY PUSH EAST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WE COULD INITIALLY BE UNDER THE RRQ
OF THE JET WHICH COULD AID IN EFFICIENCY OF STORMS. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS MOMENT BUT
WILL NEED TO ASSESS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. TOMORROW WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
MOVE ACROSS. AS WE MOVE INTO THU WE WILL MOVE UNDER S/W RIDGING BUT
HGHTS WILL ACTUALLY NOT CHANGE AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT
WITH PWS ABV 1.75 AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
AFTER SOME DECENT HEATING. HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND WE WILL MOVE UNDER A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND SCT CONVECTION
SHOULD ACTUALLY POP RATHER EARLY FRI/SAT/SUN. /CAB/

MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BUT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOME BY THU.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE FIELD BECOMES LESS DEFINED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SFC LOW SITTING OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. /CAB/

AVIATION...

A POTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND  WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING IFR TO ALL TERMINALS DURING THE 8Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.  BKN TO OVC CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...TORNADO WATCH
             FLASH FLOOD WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  70  86  68 /  70  60  60  50
BTR  85  72  87  70 /  70  60  60  50
ASD  85  72  85  71 /  80  60  60  60
MSY  86  73  86  73 /  70  50  60  50
GPT  84  74  84  73 / 100  60  60  50
PQL  84  72  84  70 / 100  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 260854
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO FAR.
THINGS PICKED UP QUICK AS A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE AREA AS
STRONG SQUALLINE WAS APPROACHING AND ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF IT. ONE VERY INTERESTING STORM MOVED THROUGH
N.O. AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPED A TORNADO. THE OFFICE DID A 6Z SNDG
AND THIS SHOWED DECENT ROTATION IN THE LL WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 189
M2/S2. THIS EXPLAINS WHY THESE SHALLOW STORMS HAVE INTERESTING LOOKS
TO THE THEM.

OVERALL MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FCST WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION. FIRST THE SVR ASPECT
TODAY OR MORE SO EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN WE WILL FOCUS ON FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. ABUNDANT STRONG LL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A SMALL THREAT OF SVR WEATHER. TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE SHORTEST ASPECT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER AS
THE SQUALLINE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH THE SVR THREAT WILL END. WE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DROPPING
PARISHES AND COUNTIES OUT OF THE TOR WATCH.

AS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO
HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AND IF/WHERE THIS OCCURS IT COULD
LEAD TO RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL LATER. PWS ON THE 6Z SNDG WERE AT 1.9
AND THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT. BTR HAD ALMOST 1.5
INCHES IN ABOUT 45 MINS. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT LOSE ANY MOISTURE AND
THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA
LATER THIS MORNING BUT AS THE NEXT IMPULSE(ALREADY MOVING INTO SRN
TX FROM MEXICO) PUSHES INTO THE REGION NUM STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN BIG CONCERN WILL BE WHERE THIS LINE FINALLY
LAYS UP AS IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS. CONVECTION COULD BE HEAVIEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND THEN FINALLY PUSH EAST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WE COULD INITIALLY BE UNDER THE RRQ
OF THE JET WHICH COULD AID IN EFFICIENCY OF STORMS. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS MOMENT BUT
WILL NEED TO ASSESS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. TOMORROW WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
MOVE ACROSS. AS WE MOVE INTO THU WE WILL MOVE UNDER S/W RIDGING BUT
HGHTS WILL ACTUALLY NOT CHANGE AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT
WITH PWS ABV 1.75 AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
AFTER SOME DECENT HEATING. HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND WE WILL MOVE UNDER A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND SCT CONVECTION
SHOULD ACTUALLY POP RATHER EARLY FRI/SAT/SUN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BUT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOME BY THU.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE FIELD BECOMES LESS DEFINED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SFC LOW SITTING OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

A POTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND  WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING IFR TO ALL TERMINALS DURING THE 8Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.  BKN TO OVC CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...TORNADO WATCH
             FLASH FLOOD WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  70  86  68 /  70  60  60  50
BTR  85  72  87  70 /  70  60  60  50
ASD  85  72  85  71 /  70  60  60  60
MSY  86  73  86  73 /  70  50  60  50
GPT  84  74  84  73 /  70  60  60  50
PQL  84  72  84  70 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LAZ034>037-039- 040-046>050-056>072.
     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-105-109-117.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.
     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     MSC045-047-059-109-147

GM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552

&&

$$

CAB





000
FXUS64 KLIX 260854
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO FAR.
THINGS PICKED UP QUICK AS A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE AREA AS
STRONG SQUALLINE WAS APPROACHING AND ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF IT. ONE VERY INTERESTING STORM MOVED THROUGH
N.O. AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPED A TORNADO. THE OFFICE DID A 6Z SNDG
AND THIS SHOWED DECENT ROTATION IN THE LL WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 189
M2/S2. THIS EXPLAINS WHY THESE SHALLOW STORMS HAVE INTERESTING LOOKS
TO THE THEM.

OVERALL MAINLY FOCUSING ON THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE FCST WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION. FIRST THE SVR ASPECT
TODAY OR MORE SO EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN WE WILL FOCUS ON FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL. ABUNDANT STRONG LL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A SMALL THREAT OF SVR WEATHER. TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORM AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE THE SHORTEST ASPECT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER AS
THE SQUALLINE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND ONCE IT MOVES
THROUGH THE SVR THREAT WILL END. WE HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DROPPING
PARISHES AND COUNTIES OUT OF THE TOR WATCH.

AS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LINE TO
HANG UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AND IF/WHERE THIS OCCURS IT COULD
LEAD TO RATHER HEAVY RAINFALL LATER. PWS ON THE 6Z SNDG WERE AT 1.9
AND THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER EFFICIENT. BTR HAD ALMOST 1.5
INCHES IN ABOUT 45 MINS. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT LOSE ANY MOISTURE AND
THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A
BREAK WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA
LATER THIS MORNING BUT AS THE NEXT IMPULSE(ALREADY MOVING INTO SRN
TX FROM MEXICO) PUSHES INTO THE REGION NUM STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN BIG CONCERN WILL BE WHERE THIS LINE FINALLY
LAYS UP AS IT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS. CONVECTION COULD BE HEAVIEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND THEN FINALLY PUSH EAST AND
NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WE COULD INITIALLY BE UNDER THE RRQ
OF THE JET WHICH COULD AID IN EFFICIENCY OF STORMS. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS MOMENT BUT
WILL NEED TO ASSESS AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. TOMORROW WE WILL REMAIN
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
MOVE ACROSS. AS WE MOVE INTO THU WE WILL MOVE UNDER S/W RIDGING BUT
HGHTS WILL ACTUALLY NOT CHANGE AND MOISTURE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT
WITH PWS ABV 1.75 AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
AFTER SOME DECENT HEATING. HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND WE WILL MOVE UNDER A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND SCT CONVECTION
SHOULD ACTUALLY POP RATHER EARLY FRI/SAT/SUN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK BUT SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOME BY THU.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE FIELD BECOMES LESS DEFINED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SFC LOW SITTING OVER THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

A POTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND  WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA BRINGING IFR TO ALL TERMINALS DURING THE 8Z TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.  BKN TO OVC CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...TORNADO WATCH
             FLASH FLOOD WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  70  86  68 /  70  60  60  50
BTR  85  72  87  70 /  70  60  60  50
ASD  85  72  85  71 /  70  60  60  60
MSY  86  73  86  73 /  70  50  60  50
GPT  84  74  84  73 /  70  60  60  50
PQL  84  72  84  70 /  70  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LAZ034>037-039- 040-046>050-056>072.
     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-105-109-117.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.
     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     MSC045-047-059-109-147

GM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552

&&

$$

CAB




000
FXUS64 KLIX 260350
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1050 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY RACING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AT AROUND 45 MPH. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR 2 AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUS A TORNADO
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU 5AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...

A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

INITIALLY...A ELONGATED AREA OF INCREASED VORTICITY STRETCHING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY. HIGH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED TO CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
WANE A BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOWER CAPE VALUES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASED VORTICITY AND
OMEGA CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL EJECT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AXIS OF THE PARENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH AMPLE
FORCING IN PLACE ALOFT...AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSLATING ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE HIGHEST PW VALUES
WILL PEAK AT AROUND 2 INCHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING ISSUES COULD DEVELOP. THE
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TREND
OF HIGHER POPS TRANSLATING EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BY
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PARENT TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SOME
INCREASED OMEGA WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN CAPE VALUES PEAK
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT 1.8 INCHES. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
PW VALUES WILL FALL FROM AROUND 1.7 INCHES ON THURSDAY TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE...IN THAT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AND THE MID- LEVEL CAP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK.
THUS...THE RISK OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL
EXIST EACH DAY ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MIDDLE 80S
IS ACHIEVED. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CHANCE POPS OF 30 TO 50
PERCENT IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. POPS DROP TO 10 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES AND CAPE VALUES FALL FROM AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG TO UNDER 500
J/KG OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SUMMERLIKE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS VFR...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING OCCASIONAL CEILINGS
AROUND FL025. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AND CARRYING VCTS WITH SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BEGIN PERCOLATING BY MID-
MORNING. HI-RES ARW WOULD INDICATE THAT WE COULD ACTUALLY HAVE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH OTHER SOLUTIONS
KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. 35

MARINE...

A FAIRLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THESE EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
AT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. MORE PROTECTED
AREAS WILL SEE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH GAINS
STRENGTH OVER THE GULF...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  84  70  87 /  50  70  60  60
BTR  73  85  71  87 /  60  70  60  60
ASD  73  85  72  86 /  50  70  60  60
MSY  75  86  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
GPT  74  84  74  84 /  50  70  70  60
PQL  72  84  71  85 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 260350
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1050 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY RACING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AT AROUND 45 MPH. THIS LINE SHOULD REACH THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR 2 AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THUS A TORNADO
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THRU 5AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...

A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

INITIALLY...A ELONGATED AREA OF INCREASED VORTICITY STRETCHING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY. HIGH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED TO CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
WANE A BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOWER CAPE VALUES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASED VORTICITY AND
OMEGA CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL EJECT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AXIS OF THE PARENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH AMPLE
FORCING IN PLACE ALOFT...AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSLATING ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE HIGHEST PW VALUES
WILL PEAK AT AROUND 2 INCHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING ISSUES COULD DEVELOP. THE
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TREND
OF HIGHER POPS TRANSLATING EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BY
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PARENT TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SOME
INCREASED OMEGA WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN CAPE VALUES PEAK
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT 1.8 INCHES. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
PW VALUES WILL FALL FROM AROUND 1.7 INCHES ON THURSDAY TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE...IN THAT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AND THE MID- LEVEL CAP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK.
THUS...THE RISK OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL
EXIST EACH DAY ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MIDDLE 80S
IS ACHIEVED. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CHANCE POPS OF 30 TO 50
PERCENT IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. POPS DROP TO 10 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES AND CAPE VALUES FALL FROM AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG TO UNDER 500
J/KG OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SUMMERLIKE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS VFR...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING OCCASIONAL CEILINGS
AROUND FL025. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AND CARRYING VCTS WITH SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BEGIN PERCOLATING BY MID-
MORNING. HI-RES ARW WOULD INDICATE THAT WE COULD ACTUALLY HAVE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH OTHER SOLUTIONS
KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. 35

MARINE...

A FAIRLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THESE EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
AT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. MORE PROTECTED
AREAS WILL SEE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH GAINS
STRENGTH OVER THE GULF...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  84  70  87 /  50  70  60  60
BTR  73  85  71  87 /  60  70  60  60
ASD  73  85  72  86 /  50  70  60  60
MSY  75  86  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
GPT  74  84  74  84 /  50  70  70  60
PQL  72  84  71  85 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 252038
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...

A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

INITIALLY...A ELONGATED AREA OF INCREASED VORTICITY STRETCHING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY. HIGH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED TO CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
WANE A BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOWER CAPE VALUES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASED VORTICITY AND
OMEGA CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL EJECT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AXIS OF THE PARENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH AMPLE
FORCING IN PLACE ALOFT...AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSLATING ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE HIGHEST PW VALUES
WILL PEAK AT AROUND 2 INCHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING ISSUES COULD DEVELOP. THE
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TREND
OF HIGHER POPS TRANSLATING EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BY
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PARENT TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SOME
INCREASED OMEGA WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN CAPE VALUES PEAK
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT 1.8 INCHES. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
PW VALUES WILL FALL FROM AROUND 1.7 INCHES ON THURSDAY TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE...IN THAT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AND THE MID- LEVEL CAP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK.
THUS...THE RISK OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL
EXIST EACH DAY ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MIDDLE 80S
IS ACHIEVED. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CHANCE POPS OF 30 TO 50
PERCENT IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. POPS DROP TO 10 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES AND CAPE VALUES FALL FROM AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG TO UNDER 500
J/KG OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SUMMERLIKE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS VFR...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING OCCASIONAL CEILINGS
AROUND FL025. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AND CARRYING VCTS WITH SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BEGIN PERCOLATING BY MID-
MORNING. HI-RES ARW WOULD INDICATE THAT WE COULD ACTUALLY HAVE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH OTHER SOLUTIONS
KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A FAIRLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THESE EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
AT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. MORE PROTECTED
AREAS WILL SEE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH GAINS
STRENGTH OVER THE GULF...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  84  70  87 /  50  70  60  60
BTR  73  85  71  87 /  60  70  60  60
ASD  73  85  72  86 /  50  70  60  60
MSY  75  86  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
GPT  74  84  74  84 /  50  70  70  60
PQL  72  84  71  85 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32




000
FXUS64 KLIX 252038
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...

A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

INITIALLY...A ELONGATED AREA OF INCREASED VORTICITY STRETCHING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY. HIGH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED TO CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
WANE A BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOWER CAPE VALUES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASED VORTICITY AND
OMEGA CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL EJECT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AXIS OF THE PARENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH AMPLE
FORCING IN PLACE ALOFT...AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSLATING ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE HIGHEST PW VALUES
WILL PEAK AT AROUND 2 INCHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING ISSUES COULD DEVELOP. THE
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TREND
OF HIGHER POPS TRANSLATING EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BY
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PARENT TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SOME
INCREASED OMEGA WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN CAPE VALUES PEAK
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT 1.8 INCHES. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
PW VALUES WILL FALL FROM AROUND 1.7 INCHES ON THURSDAY TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE...IN THAT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AND THE MID- LEVEL CAP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK.
THUS...THE RISK OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL
EXIST EACH DAY ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MIDDLE 80S
IS ACHIEVED. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CHANCE POPS OF 30 TO 50
PERCENT IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. POPS DROP TO 10 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES AND CAPE VALUES FALL FROM AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG TO UNDER 500
J/KG OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SUMMERLIKE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS VFR...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING OCCASIONAL CEILINGS
AROUND FL025. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AND CARRYING VCTS WITH SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BEGIN PERCOLATING BY MID-
MORNING. HI-RES ARW WOULD INDICATE THAT WE COULD ACTUALLY HAVE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH OTHER SOLUTIONS
KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A FAIRLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THESE EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
AT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. MORE PROTECTED
AREAS WILL SEE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH GAINS
STRENGTH OVER THE GULF...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  84  70  87 /  50  70  60  60
BTR  73  85  71  87 /  60  70  60  60
ASD  73  85  72  86 /  50  70  60  60
MSY  75  86  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
GPT  74  84  74  84 /  50  70  70  60
PQL  72  84  71  85 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 251756
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS VFR AT MIDDAY...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS AROUND FL025. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...AND COULD
THREATEN JUST ABOUT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
CARRY VCTS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY IF MORE SIGNIFICANT THREATS
OCCUR. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
PERCOLATING BY MID-MORNING. HI-RES ARW WOULD INDICATE THAT WE
COULD ACTUALLY HAVE CONVECTION IN THE AREA AROUND 09Z
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. PW IS NEAR THE
DAILY MAX IN THE SPC CLIMATOLOGY AT 2.0 INCHES AND MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS 2500 J/KG. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS RELATIVELY STEEP AT
6.3 C/KM. STORMS FIRED OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE SHOULD GO UP AGAIN TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR IN PLACE
WITH WINDS GENERALLY SSW THROUGHOUT THOUGH STORM AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY LATER TODAY. STILL... THE
SUPERCELL COMPOSITE FOR THIS PROFILE COMES OUT AT 8.3. PEAK WIND
IS 55 KTS AT 170 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM IOWA TO WEST
KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS. SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER PLAINS AND
MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES
WAS FROM THE GULF COAST TO I-20. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO IOWA WITH VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RIDGE OVER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
FROM WEST MS TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND ANOTHER OVER WEST TEXAS.
VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALED SSE FLOW OF 15KTS AT 1KFT THEN S AT 20
TO 25 KTS FROM 2KFT TO 7KFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ABV 7KFT. LL
HELICITY WAS AROUND 130M/S FROM SURF TO 1 AND 2KM FROM 00Z
SOUNDING.

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI.
THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE MAY INCREASE LL HELICITY SURF TO 3KM UP
TO 200M/S AND COULD BE A DRIVER FOR A FEW MID LAYER SPIN THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE MS
COAST AND NORTH OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE
AS THE WAVE LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAINTAIN VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT LOSE THE MOISTURE AXIS.
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND 2KJ/KG AND MOISTURE WILL BE THE
DRIVER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR TODAY.

THE SECOND WAVE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE DAMPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE
RIDGE. ERGO...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION... MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL
MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR ALL TERMINALS
EAST OF A KHUM TO KMCB LINE. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MEFFER &&

MARINE... STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER
STATE BEYOND MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING
WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MIDWEEK
ONWARD AS SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE EAST WEAKENS.

MEFFER &&

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  71  84  71 /  60  50  70  40
BTR  84  73  85  73 /  50  60  70  40
ASD  82  73  85  73 /  70  50  70  50
MSY  83  75  86  74 /  70  50  70  50
GPT  81  75  85  75 /  70  50  70  50
PQL  82  72  85  72 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 251756
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1256 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS VFR AT MIDDAY...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS AROUND FL025. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...AND COULD
THREATEN JUST ABOUT ANY TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL
CARRY VCTS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY IF MORE SIGNIFICANT THREATS
OCCUR. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
PERCOLATING BY MID-MORNING. HI-RES ARW WOULD INDICATE THAT WE
COULD ACTUALLY HAVE CONVECTION IN THE AREA AROUND 09Z
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH OTHER SOLUTIONS KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. PW IS NEAR THE
DAILY MAX IN THE SPC CLIMATOLOGY AT 2.0 INCHES AND MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS 2500 J/KG. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS RELATIVELY STEEP AT
6.3 C/KM. STORMS FIRED OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE SHOULD GO UP AGAIN TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR IN PLACE
WITH WINDS GENERALLY SSW THROUGHOUT THOUGH STORM AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY LATER TODAY. STILL... THE
SUPERCELL COMPOSITE FOR THIS PROFILE COMES OUT AT 8.3. PEAK WIND
IS 55 KTS AT 170 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM IOWA TO WEST
KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS. SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER PLAINS AND
MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES
WAS FROM THE GULF COAST TO I-20. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO IOWA WITH VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RIDGE OVER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
FROM WEST MS TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND ANOTHER OVER WEST TEXAS.
VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALED SSE FLOW OF 15KTS AT 1KFT THEN S AT 20
TO 25 KTS FROM 2KFT TO 7KFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ABV 7KFT. LL
HELICITY WAS AROUND 130M/S FROM SURF TO 1 AND 2KM FROM 00Z
SOUNDING.

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI.
THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE MAY INCREASE LL HELICITY SURF TO 3KM UP
TO 200M/S AND COULD BE A DRIVER FOR A FEW MID LAYER SPIN THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE MS
COAST AND NORTH OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE
AS THE WAVE LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAINTAIN VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT LOSE THE MOISTURE AXIS.
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND 2KJ/KG AND MOISTURE WILL BE THE
DRIVER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR TODAY.

THE SECOND WAVE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE DAMPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE
RIDGE. ERGO...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION... MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL
MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR ALL TERMINALS
EAST OF A KHUM TO KMCB LINE. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MEFFER &&

MARINE... STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER
STATE BEYOND MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING
WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MIDWEEK
ONWARD AS SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE EAST WEAKENS.

MEFFER &&

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  71  84  71 /  60  50  70  40
BTR  84  73  85  73 /  50  60  70  40
ASD  82  73  85  73 /  70  50  70  50
MSY  83  75  86  74 /  70  50  70  50
GPT  81  75  85  75 /  70  50  70  50
PQL  82  72  85  72 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 251329
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
829 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. PW IS NEAR THE
DAILY MAX IN THE SPC CLIMATOLOGY AT 2.0 INCHES AND MIXED LAYER
CAPE IS 2500 J/KG. 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS RELATIVELY STEEP AT
6.3 C/KM. STORMS FIRED OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE SHOULD GO UP AGAIN TODAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR IN PLACE
WITH WINDS GENERALLY SSW THROUGHOUT THOUGH STORM AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY LATER TODAY. STILL... THE
SUPERCELL COMPOSITE FOR THIS PROFILE COMES OUT AT 8.3. PEAK WIND
IS 55 KTS AT 170 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM IOWA TO WEST
KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS. SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER PLAINS AND
MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES
WAS FROM THE GULF COAST TO I-20. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO IOWA WITH VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RIDGE OVER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
FROM WEST MS TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND ANOTHER OVER WEST TEXAS.
VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALED SSE FLOW OF 15KTS AT 1KFT THEN S AT 20
TO 25 KTS FROM 2KFT TO 7KFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ABV 7KFT. LL
HELICITY WAS AROUND 130M/S FROM SURF TO 1 AND 2KM FROM 00Z
SOUNDING.

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI.
THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE MAY INCREASE LL HELICITY SURF TO 3KM UP
TO 200M/S AND COULD BE A DRIVER FOR A FEW MID LAYER SPIN THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE MS
COAST AND NORTH OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE
AS THE WAVE LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAINTAIN VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT LOSE THE MOISTURE AXIS.
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND 2KJ/KG AND MOISTURE WILL BE THE
DRIVER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR TODAY.

THE SECOND WAVE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE DAMPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE
RIDGE. ERGO...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION... MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL
MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR ALL TERMINALS
EAST OF A KHUM TO KMCB LINE. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MEFFER &&

MARINE... STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER
STATE BEYOND MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING
WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MIDWEEK
ONWARD AS SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE EAST WEAKENS.

MEFFER &&

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  71  84  71 /  70  50  70  40
BTR  85  73  85  73 /  60  60  70  40
ASD  83  73  85  73 /  60  50  70  50
MSY  83  75  86  74 /  70  50  70  50
GPT  82  75  85  75 /  70  50  70  50
PQL  82  72  85  72 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 250946
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
446 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM IOWA TO WEST
KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS. SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER PLAINS AND
MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES
WAS FROM THE GULF COAST TO I-20. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO IOWA WITH VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RIDGE OVER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
FROM WEST MS TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND ANOTHER OVER WEST TEXAS.
VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALED SSE FLOW OF 15KTS AT 1KFT THEN S AT 20
TO 25 KTS FROM 2KFT TO 7KFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ABV 7KFT. LL
HELICITY WAS AROUND 130M/S FROM SURF TO 1 AND 2KM FROM 00Z
SOUNDING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI.
THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE MAY INCREASE LL HELICITY SURF TO 3KM UP
TO 200M/S AND COULD BE A DRIVER FOR A FEW MID LAYER SPIN THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE MS
COAST AND NORTH OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE
AS THE WAVE LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAINTAIN VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT LOSE THE MOISTURE AXIS.
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND 2KJ/KG AND MOISTURE WILL BE THE
DRIVER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR TODAY.

THE SECOND WAVE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE DAMPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE
RIDGE. ERGO...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION... MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL
MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR ALL TERMINALS
EAST OF A KHUM TO KMCB LINE. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MEFFER &&

.MARINE... STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER
STATE BEYOND MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING
WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MIDWEEK
ONWARD AS SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE EAST WEAKENS.

MEFFER &&

.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  71  84  71 /  70  50  70  40
BTR  85  73  85  73 /  60  60  70  40
ASD  83  73  85  73 /  60  50  70  50
MSY  83  75  86  74 /  70  50  70  50
GPT  82  75  85  75 /  70  50  70  50
PQL  82  72  85  72 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 250946
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
446 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM IOWA TO WEST
KANSAS TO WEST TEXAS. SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER PLAINS AND
MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES
WAS FROM THE GULF COAST TO I-20. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO IOWA WITH VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WEST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND RIDGE OVER ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
FROM WEST MS TO NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND ANOTHER OVER WEST TEXAS.
VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALED SSE FLOW OF 15KTS AT 1KFT THEN S AT 20
TO 25 KTS FROM 2KFT TO 7KFT AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ABV 7KFT. LL
HELICITY WAS AROUND 130M/S FROM SURF TO 1 AND 2KM FROM 00Z
SOUNDING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI.
THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE MAY INCREASE LL HELICITY SURF TO 3KM UP
TO 200M/S AND COULD BE A DRIVER FOR A FEW MID LAYER SPIN THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE MS
COAST AND NORTH OVER MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND BECOME DIFFUSE
AS THE WAVE LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAINTAIN VALUES BETWEEN
1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT LOSE THE MOISTURE AXIS.
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1200 AND 2KJ/KG AND MOISTURE WILL BE THE
DRIVER OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR TODAY.

THE SECOND WAVE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING A THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY OCCUR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE DAMPENS A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE
RIDGE. ERGO...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER
DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION... MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL
MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR ALL TERMINALS
EAST OF A KHUM TO KMCB LINE. CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.

MEFFER &&

.MARINE... STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND WEEKEND BUT IN A MUCH WEAKER
STATE BEYOND MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING
WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX MIDWEEK
ONWARD AS SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE EAST WEAKENS.

MEFFER &&

.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  71  84  71 /  70  50  70  40
BTR  85  73  85  73 /  60  60  70  40
ASD  83  73  85  73 /  60  50  70  50
MSY  83  75  86  74 /  70  50  70  50
GPT  82  75  85  75 /  70  50  70  50
PQL  82  72  85  72 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 250456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CURRENT ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM
VFR TO MVFR WITH SOME TEMPO LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 250456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CURRENT ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM
VFR TO MVFR WITH SOME TEMPO LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 250235
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 250235
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 250133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 250133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO




000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO





000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO





000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO




000
FXUS64 KLIX 241903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR TORNADO WATCH 204
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING
INTO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA A FEW QUICK SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. FULL FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT IN A FEW HOURS.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  60  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  60  70  50  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  60  70  40  60
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  60  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  60  70  40  60
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 241903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR TORNADO WATCH 204
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING
INTO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA A FEW QUICK SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. FULL FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT IN A FEW HOURS.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  60  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  60  70  50  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  60  70  40  60
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  60  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  60  70  40  60
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 241903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR TORNADO WATCH 204
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING
INTO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA A FEW QUICK SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. FULL FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT IN A FEW HOURS.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  60  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  60  70  50  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  60  70  40  60
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  60  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  60  70  40  60
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 241340
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  84  71 /  50  60  70  50
BTR  87  72  84  72 /  60  60  70  50
ASD  87  72  83  73 /  30  60  70  40
MSY  87  75  85  75 /  50  60  70  50
GPT  85  74  82  75 /  30  60  70  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 241340
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  84  71 /  50  60  70  50
BTR  87  72  84  72 /  60  60  70  50
ASD  87  72  83  73 /  30  60  70  40
MSY  87  75  85  75 /  50  60  70  50
GPT  85  74  82  75 /  30  60  70  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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