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000
FXUS64 KLIX 052011
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

REMNANTS OF A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM IOWA INTO TEXAS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE LOCATIONS
WILL SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. NORTHERLY
BREEZES HELPING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

GREAT PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL SUNDAY...SO MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL STAY RATHER LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR WILL MEAN
25 TO 30 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGES. NORMALLY COOLER SITES COULD DIP
INTO THE UPPER 40S TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...AND WILL GENERALLY
TREND TOWARD THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...AND FIT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO RETURN WITH THE ONSET OF ONSHORE FLOW. ANY SIGNIFICANT
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT NO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OR
RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS TONIGHT DO NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER
FORECAST...AND HAVE LOWERED TONIGHTS ADVISORY TO EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES. THE PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF...WITH WINDS DOWN TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID-MORNING. BENIGN
CONDITIONS THEN SET IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
NECESSARY...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE EASING.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  75  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  52  78  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  49  76  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  51  76  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  49  76  49  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 050915
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITIES...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WHICH WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO RISE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. WITH LOW HUMIDITIES STILL
IN PLACE...THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE FAIRLY LARGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL EASILY DIP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY...AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE STRONGEST
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...INCREASED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE RISE...WITH
CAPE VALUES PEAKING OUT CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN OVERALL FORCING ALOFT AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST.

A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING TROUGH AXIS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMA RIDING ALONG THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO SUPPORT ONGOING LARGELY DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE CONTINUED INCREASES IN
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS RISE BACK INTO THE 60S DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL EASILY CLIMB TO
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. OVERALL...KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SECOND SURGE WILL YIELD A
NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION FOR MOST TAF SITES THURSDAY EVENING AND
WIND SPEEDS OF 12 TO 19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED KMSY AND KNEW AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND WILL INSERT
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING THROUGH NOON TODAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AROUND 30M THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER
WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WILL CREATE A BITE INSTABILITY AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 20 TO 23 KNOTS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SEA SURF
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OPEN AND PROTECTED WATERS FOR TONIGHT. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF AROUND
1 FOOT EXPECTED. THE HIGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ON MONDAY. WINDS
MAY RISE BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD CLIMB TO AROUND
5 FEET. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  79  52  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  78  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  79  58  78  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  51  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  78  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 050503
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE MORE
THAN MID LEVEL CU FIELD WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
SUNSET. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE
NIGHTS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. SUN DECLINATION ANGLE WILL
BE FIGHTING THE COLD AIR AND KEEP HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG
AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. THIS INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION. TOOK A COMBINATION OF BLENDED
MODELS AND MEX FOR FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS LOWER
80S. OTHERWISE...STILL NO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE
ROLLING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY MINOR ISSUE IS MCB WHERE LIGHT BR
COULD DEVELOP HOWEVER THAT RISK IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS LEFT OUT
THE TAF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AT
KNEW.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO.
PERSISTENT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT WINDS ELEVATED TODAY.
LOOKING INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THERE MAY BE LULLS AT TIMES BUT
WINDS WILL REACH EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE TIDAL LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT
FOR LONG ENOUGH DURATIONS TO EXTEND THOSE PRODUCTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH EJECTING EAST FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE RIDGE TO
MOVE IN AND BREAK DOWN THE WIND FIELD. THUS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND
CALMER SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...BLUE.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  76  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  51  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  77  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  51  77  54  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 050503
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE MORE
THAN MID LEVEL CU FIELD WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
SUNSET. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE
NIGHTS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. SUN DECLINATION ANGLE WILL
BE FIGHTING THE COLD AIR AND KEEP HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG
AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. THIS INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION. TOOK A COMBINATION OF BLENDED
MODELS AND MEX FOR FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS LOWER
80S. OTHERWISE...STILL NO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE
ROLLING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY MINOR ISSUE IS MCB WHERE LIGHT BR
COULD DEVELOP HOWEVER THAT RISK IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS LEFT OUT
THE TAF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AT
KNEW.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO.
PERSISTENT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT WINDS ELEVATED TODAY.
LOOKING INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THERE MAY BE LULLS AT TIMES BUT
WINDS WILL REACH EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE TIDAL LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT
FOR LONG ENOUGH DURATIONS TO EXTEND THOSE PRODUCTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH EJECTING EAST FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE RIDGE TO
MOVE IN AND BREAK DOWN THE WIND FIELD. THUS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND
CALMER SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...BLUE.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  76  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  51  78  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  53  77  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  51  77  54  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 042012
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
312 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE MORE
THAN MID LEVEL CU FIELD WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH
SUNSET. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE
NIGHTS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. SUN DECLINATION ANGLE WILL
BE FIGHTING THE COLD AIR AND KEEP HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG
AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. THIS INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION. TOOK A COMBINATION OF BLENDED
MODELS AND MEX FOR FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS LOWER
80S. OTHERWISE...STILL NO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE
ROLLING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY MINOR ISSUE IS MCB WHERE LIGHT BR
COULD DEVELOP HOWEVER THAT RISK IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS LEFT OUT
THE TAF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AT
KNEW.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO.
PERSISTENT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS KEPT WINDS ELEVATED TODAY.
LOOKING INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THERE MAY BE LULLS AT TIMES BUT
WINDS WILL REACH EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE TIDAL LAKES AND SMALL CRAFT
FOR LONG ENOUGH DURATIONS TO EXTEND THOSE PRODUCTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER TROUGH EJECTING EAST FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE RIDGE TO
MOVE IN AND BREAK DOWN THE WIND FIELD. THUS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND
CALMER SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&
.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...BLUE.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  74  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  77  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  54  76  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  61  77  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  56  77  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  52  76  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 041813
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
112 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY MINOR ISSUE IS MCB WHERE
LIGHT BR COULD DEVELOP HOWEVER THAT RISK IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS
LEFT OUT THE TAF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH AT KNEW.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  55  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  76  61  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  56  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  78  52  76  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAB





000
FXUS64 KLIX 041813
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
112 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY MINOR ISSUE IS MCB WHERE
LIGHT BR COULD DEVELOP HOWEVER THAT RISK IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS
LEFT OUT THE TAF FCST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH AT KNEW.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  55  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  76  61  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  56  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  78  52  76  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAB





000
FXUS64 KLIX 040834
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...

GOING TO BE HARD TO BEAT THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE AREA FOR MAY IN THE SOUTH. FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE
INTO THE GULF AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S. DEWPOINTS TONIGHT ARE ALREADY IN MID 50S TO
NEAR 60...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S TODAY AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PLEASANT WEATHER WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WILL CONTINUE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND RAIN CHANCES...ALBEIT SLIGHT...COME BACK LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AROUND
DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE LOW OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AT KNEW...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND WILL CANCEL THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND REPLACE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS.  THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS COLD AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE IN...INCREASED
MIXING OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WATERS BY SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED. THE
HIGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ON MONDAY.   WINDS MAY RISE BACK INTO
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD CLIMB TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  55  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  76  61  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  56  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  78  52  76  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 040834
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...

GOING TO BE HARD TO BEAT THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE AREA FOR MAY IN THE SOUTH. FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE
INTO THE GULF AND COOLER...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S. DEWPOINTS TONIGHT ARE ALREADY IN MID 50S TO
NEAR 60...QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S TODAY AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. PLEASANT WEATHER WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WILL CONTINUE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND RAIN CHANCES...ALBEIT SLIGHT...COME BACK LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AROUND
DAYBREAK...BUT ODDS ARE LOW OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING.  WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AT KNEW...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS ORIGINALLY FORECAST...AND WILL CANCEL THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND REPLACE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS.  THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS COLD AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE IN...INCREASED
MIXING OVER THE WATERS AT NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS TO RETURN BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WATERS BY SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT
WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF AROUND 1 FOOT EXPECTED. THE
HIGH SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ON MONDAY.   WINDS MAY RISE BACK INTO
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND SEAS COULD CLIMB TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  55  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  76  61  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  56  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  78  52  76  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 040517
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH AT KNEW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE ALL DAY. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  55  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  76  61  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  56  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  78  52  76  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 040447
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFFSHORE IS JUST NOW PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION DOING THE SAME...SO
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF NO MENTION OF POPS BEYOND 00Z. CLOUD DECK
APPEARS TO BE ERODING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CU FIELD
DISSIPATING AND STRATUS DECK SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL DROP ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. THIS HOWEVER WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE SUN ANGLE WE HAVE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG
AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. THIS INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION. TOOK A COMBINATION OF BLENDED
MODELS AND MEX FOR FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...STILL NO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE ROLLING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

MEFFER

AVIATION... MVFR CIGS STILL PLAGUING MUCH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS FOR
CLOUDS TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVNG
BEFORE THE AREA IS FINALLY CLOUD FREE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR WINDS WILL
START TO PICK UP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS. ONLY OTHER ISSUE COULD BE SOME LIGHT BR IN THE USUAL TROUBLE
SPOTS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. /CAB/

MARINE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. SO DECIDED TO START OFF WITH EXERCISE CAUTION 00Z-
06Z...THEN SMALL CRAFT FROM THEN THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER 20+KNOT WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED THE REST
OF THE DAY OR JUST EXERCISE CAUTION...SO HELD OFF ON EITHER BEYOND
15Z. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
RIGHT AT THAT 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. UPPER TROUGH
EJECTING EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE IN AND BREAK DOWN
THE WIND FIELD. THUS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...BLUE.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  76  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  77  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  77  55  76 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  63  76  61  77 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  60  77  56  77 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  58  78  52  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 032044
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFFSHORE IS JUST NOW PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION DOING THE SAME...SO
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST OF NO MENTION OF POPS BEYOND 00Z. CLOUD DECK
APPEARS TO BE ERODING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CU FIELD
DISSIPATING AND STRATUS DECK SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL DROP ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES. THIS HOWEVER WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH THE SUN ANGLE WE HAVE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG WAVE TROUGH MARCHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG
AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST WITH NO
CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD. THIS INCREASE IN 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION. TOOK A COMBINATION OF BLENDED
MODELS AND MEX FOR FORECAST HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...STILL NO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE ROLLING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

MEFFER
&&


.AVIATION... MVFR CIGS STILL PLAGUING MUCH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS FOR
CLOUDS TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVNG
BEFORE THE AREA IS FINALLY CLOUD FREE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR WINDS WILL
START TO PICK UP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS. ONLY OTHER ISSUE COULD BE SOME LIGHT BR IN THE USUAL TROUBLE
SPOTS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. SO DECIDED TO START OFF WITH EXERCISE CAUTION 00Z-
06Z...THEN SMALL CRAFT FROM THEN THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHETHER 20+KNOT WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED THE REST
OF THE DAY OR JUST EXERCISE CAUTION...SO HELD OFF ON EITHER BEYOND
15Z. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
RIGHT AT THAT 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. UPPER TROUGH
EJECTING EAST WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE IN AND BREAK DOWN
THE WIND FIELD. THUS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...BLUE.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  78  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  78  58  78 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  63  77  63  78 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  60  78  59  78 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  58  79  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 031814
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
114 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS STILL PLAGUING MUCH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS FOR
CLOUDS TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVNG
BEFORE THE AREA IS FINALLY CLOUD FREE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR WINDS WILL
START TO PICK UP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS. ONLY OTHER ISSUE COULD BE SOME LIGHT BR IN THE USUAL TROUBLE
SPOTS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  78  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  78  58  78 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  63  77  63  78 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  60  78  59  78 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  58  79  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAB





000
FXUS64 KLIX 031814
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
114 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS STILL PLAGUING MUCH OF THE AREA BUT LOOKS FOR
CLOUDS TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVNG
BEFORE THE AREA IS FINALLY CLOUD FREE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR WINDS WILL
START TO PICK UP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS. ONLY OTHER ISSUE COULD BE SOME LIGHT BR IN THE USUAL TROUBLE
SPOTS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  78  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  78  58  78 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  63  77  63  78 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  60  78  59  78 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  58  79  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

CAB





000
FXUS64 KLIX 031304
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
804 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FIRST 2000 FT BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT
THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CROSSED MOST OF THE AREA. THE PROFILE
WILL GRADUALLY BE DRYING THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS. PW HAS NOT REALLY BEGUN TO
DROP YET AND IS STILL AT 1.57 INCHES. WE EXPECT SKIES TO BE
CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON BUT SOME CLOUDS COULD BE STUBBORN AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AS DRIER AIR MIXES
IN AS WELL.

KRAUTMANN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...

JUST A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPED WITH A AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISIPPI. RAIN SHOULD
BE OVER NOW AND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE A
WHILE...SHOULD BE OVER FOR A WHILE. THERE IS STILL AN EVER SO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY BUT OPTED TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY OFF
THE LAND AREAS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THERE IS NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST...SO THE
AREA WILL GET A MUCH NEEDED CHANCE TO DRY OUT.

LONG TERM...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND IN THE FORECAST.
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATUES WILL ALSO BE
COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY AND LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FEW LOWS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME EVEN COOL NIGHTS TO BE HAD WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

AVIATION...

IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z THIS
MORNING WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET AND VISIBILTIES
RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 MILES.  AFTER 14Z...INCREASING MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO RAPIDLY
IMPROVE INTO VFR RANGE.  THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS COULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH.  WINDS SHOULD DROP OF SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVER THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH WINDS BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE.  SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  53  77  53 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  78  56  78  57 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  78  58  78  58 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  78  63  77  63 /  10  10   0   0
GPT  78  60  78  59 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  80  58  79  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 030900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...

JUST A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPED WITH A AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISIPPI. RAIN SHOULD
BE OVER NOW AND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE A
WHILE...SHOULD BE OVER FOR A WHILE. THERE IS STILL AN EVER SO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY BUT OPTED TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY OFF
THE LAND AREAS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THERE IS NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST...SO THE
AREA WILL GET A MUCH NEEDED CHANCE TO DRY OUT.

.LONG TERM...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND IN THE FORECAST.
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATUES WILL ALSO BE
COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY AND LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FEW LOWS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME EVEN COOL NIGHTS TO BE HAD WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z THIS
MORNING WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET AND VISIBILTIES
RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 MILES.  AFTER 14Z...INCREASING MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO RAPIDLY
IMPROVE INTO VFR RANGE.  THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS COULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH.  WINDS SHOULD DROP OF SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVER THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH WINDS BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE.  SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  53  77  53 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  78  56  78  57 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  78  58  78  58 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  78  63  77  63 /  10  10   0   0
GPT  78  60  78  59 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  80  58  79  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG/SHORT...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 030900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...

JUST A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPED WITH A AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISIPPI. RAIN SHOULD
BE OVER NOW AND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE A
WHILE...SHOULD BE OVER FOR A WHILE. THERE IS STILL AN EVER SO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER TODAY BUT OPTED TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY OFF
THE LAND AREAS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THERE IS NO MENTION OF RAIN IN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST...SO THE
AREA WILL GET A MUCH NEEDED CHANCE TO DRY OUT.

.LONG TERM...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO RAIN CHANCES TO BE FOUND IN THE FORECAST.
AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST TEMPERATUES WILL ALSO BE
COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY AND LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE DAY. AT NIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FEW LOWS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME EVEN COOL NIGHTS TO BE HAD WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 13-14Z THIS
MORNING WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET AND VISIBILTIES
RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 MILES.  AFTER 14Z...INCREASING MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO RAPIDLY
IMPROVE INTO VFR RANGE.  THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS COULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH.  WINDS SHOULD DROP OF SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVER THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PUSH WINDS BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE.  SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET EXPECTED.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  53  77  53 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  78  56  78  57 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  78  58  78  58 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  78  63  77  63 /  10  10   0   0
GPT  78  60  78  59 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  80  58  79  58 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG/SHORT...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 030527
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT MOST OF
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD BOUNCE BETWEEN 1 AND 5 MILES
THROUGH 14Z...AND CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 300 AND 800
FEET DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. AFTER 14Z...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO QUICKLY MIX OUT AND THE CEILINGS
TO RAPIDLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  53  77  56 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  78  57  79  57 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  79  56  78  57 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  79  62  78  62 /  10  10   0   0
GPT  79  59  79  59 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  79  58  79  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 030527
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT MOST OF
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD BOUNCE BETWEEN 1 AND 5 MILES
THROUGH 14Z...AND CEILINGS SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 300 AND 800
FEET DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. AFTER 14Z...NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FOG TO QUICKLY MIX OUT AND THE CEILINGS
TO RAPIDLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  53  77  56 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  78  57  79  57 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  79  56  78  57 /  10  10   0   0
MSY  79  62  78  62 /  10  10   0   0
GPT  79  59  79  59 /  10  10   0   0
PQL  79  58  79  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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