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000
FXUS64 KLIX 050431
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  83  60  84 /  10  10   0  20
BTR  63  84  62  84 /  30  10  10  20
ASD  63  82  62  83 /  20  10   0  10
MSY  67  82  66  83 /  20  10   0  20
GPT  65  81  64  82 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  61  82  59  83 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 050431
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
PATCHY FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  83  60  84 /  10  10   0  20
BTR  63  84  62  84 /  30  10  10  20
ASD  63  82  62  83 /  20  10   0  10
MSY  67  82  66  83 /  20  10   0  20
GPT  65  81  64  82 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  61  82  59  83 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 042027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ONGOING THINKING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH...THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE
DOMINATED BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF SOUTH AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MID-
LEVEL CAP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. OVERALL...EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL
TURN MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASING OMEGA AND
RESULTANT LIFT TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY. THE INITIAL FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...AND
ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DAY. A MUCH STRONGER FEATURE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
SLIDE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE A MIX OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GREATEST.

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FOUR CORNER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE WENT WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DAY TO REFLECT THE INCREASED FORCING THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT...AND OVERALL
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS DAY WILL ALSO HAVE THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REFLECTED IN A RATHER HEALTHY CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE AREA. A NARROW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TUESDAY. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT WINDS APPEAR TO STAY
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FROM FORMING. POPS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TERMINALS ON TUESDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WILL
IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN PLACE. IN
FACT...WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FEET IN
THESE OUTER WATERS. NEARER TO SHORE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS ARE OUT FOR TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THEN LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THE FLOW WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO DROP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  83  60  84 /  10  10   0  20
BTR  63  84  62  84 /  30  10  10  20
ASD  63  82  62  83 /  20  10   0  10
MSY  67  82  66  83 /  20  10   0  20
GPT  65  81  64  82 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  61  82  59  83 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 042027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ONGOING THINKING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH...THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE
DOMINATED BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF SOUTH AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MID-
LEVEL CAP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. OVERALL...EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL
TURN MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASING OMEGA AND
RESULTANT LIFT TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY. THE INITIAL FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...AND
ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DAY. A MUCH STRONGER FEATURE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
SLIDE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE A MIX OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GREATEST.

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FOUR CORNER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE WENT WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DAY TO REFLECT THE INCREASED FORCING THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT...AND OVERALL
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS DAY WILL ALSO HAVE THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REFLECTED IN A RATHER HEALTHY CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE AREA. A NARROW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TUESDAY. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT WINDS APPEAR TO STAY
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FROM FORMING. POPS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TERMINALS ON TUESDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WILL
IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN PLACE. IN
FACT...WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FEET IN
THESE OUTER WATERS. NEARER TO SHORE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS ARE OUT FOR TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THEN LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THE FLOW WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO DROP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  83  60  84 /  10  10   0  20
BTR  63  84  62  84 /  30  10  10  20
ASD  63  82  62  83 /  20  10   0  10
MSY  67  82  66  83 /  20  10   0  20
GPT  65  81  64  82 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  61  82  59  83 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$

32




000
FXUS64 KLIX 042027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ONGOING THINKING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH...THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE
DOMINATED BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF SOUTH AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MID-
LEVEL CAP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. OVERALL...EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL
TURN MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASING OMEGA AND
RESULTANT LIFT TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY. THE INITIAL FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...AND
ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DAY. A MUCH STRONGER FEATURE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
SLIDE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE A MIX OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GREATEST.

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FOUR CORNER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE WENT WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DAY TO REFLECT THE INCREASED FORCING THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT...AND OVERALL
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS DAY WILL ALSO HAVE THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REFLECTED IN A RATHER HEALTHY CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE AREA. A NARROW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TUESDAY. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT WINDS APPEAR TO STAY
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FROM FORMING. POPS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TERMINALS ON TUESDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WILL
IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN PLACE. IN
FACT...WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FEET IN
THESE OUTER WATERS. NEARER TO SHORE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS ARE OUT FOR TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THEN LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THE FLOW WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO DROP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  83  60  84 /  10  10   0  20
BTR  63  84  62  84 /  30  10  10  20
ASD  63  82  62  83 /  20  10   0  10
MSY  67  82  66  83 /  20  10   0  20
GPT  65  81  64  82 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  61  82  59  83 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$

32




000
FXUS64 KLIX 042027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ONGOING THINKING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH...THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE
DOMINATED BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF SOUTH AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MID-
LEVEL CAP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. OVERALL...EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL
TURN MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASING OMEGA AND
RESULTANT LIFT TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY. THE INITIAL FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...AND
ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DAY. A MUCH STRONGER FEATURE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
SLIDE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE A MIX OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GREATEST.

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FOUR CORNER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE WENT WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DAY TO REFLECT THE INCREASED FORCING THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT...AND OVERALL
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS DAY WILL ALSO HAVE THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REFLECTED IN A RATHER HEALTHY CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE AREA. A NARROW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TUESDAY. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT WINDS APPEAR TO STAY
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FROM FORMING. POPS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TERMINALS ON TUESDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WILL
IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN PLACE. IN
FACT...WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FEET IN
THESE OUTER WATERS. NEARER TO SHORE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS ARE OUT FOR TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THEN LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THE FLOW WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO DROP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  83  60  84 /  10  10   0  20
BTR  63  84  62  84 /  30  10  10  20
ASD  63  82  62  83 /  20  10   0  10
MSY  67  82  66  83 /  20  10   0  20
GPT  65  81  64  82 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  61  82  59  83 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 041728
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1228 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REFLECTED IN A RATHER HEALTHY CUMULUS
FIELD AT MID-DAY. A NARROW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
TERREBONNE PARISH WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THAT. WILL NEED TO KEEP VCTS IN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KHUM...KHDC AND KBTR. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TUESDAY. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT WINDS APPEAR
TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST
8000 FEET HAVE TRANSPORTED MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS ABOVE THIS LEVEL. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.13 INCHES IS CLOSE TO THE TYPICAL EARLY MAY
VALUE. A 13 CELSIUS TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 600 FEET THAT SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. WINDS ARE UNDER 20
KNOTS UNTIL 40000 FEET WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 45 KNOTS AT 49000
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT
LASTED 98 MINUTES AND ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING WEST OF WAVELAND 20 MILES DOWNRANGE
FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SEVERAL SH/TS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING IN SE LA AND COASTAL MISS
THIS MORNING. BUMPED NUMBERS JUST A TAD FOR THIS EXTRA FOCUS.
AFTER TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE A STALLING FRONT BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE FCST. PRESISTENT
SE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST. IN
FACT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH NEAR OR AT SCY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LARGE FETCH ACROSS THE
GULF SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM LEADING TO SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD START TO BACK DOWN AROUND
THE MIDDLE/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIGHTENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
NERN GULF. SCY FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT WITH THIS
PACKAGE AND THEN GO INTO EFFECT AT 18Z FOR THE INNER WATERS. /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL ALL OR MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS.
LGT SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS TRIED TO PUSH INLAND WITH ONLY
GPT AND BIX BEING IMPACTED SO FAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME EARLY MORNING
FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTS. TODAY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW BUT AN ISLTD
STORM OR TWO COULD LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR OR IFR STATUS THIS AFTN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  60  81  60 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  63  81  62 /  30  10  10   0
ASD  81  63  80  63 /  20  10  10   0
MSY  80  67  80  67 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  79  65  79  65 /  30  10  10   0
PQL  80  60  80  62 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 041728
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1228 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REFLECTED IN A RATHER HEALTHY CUMULUS
FIELD AT MID-DAY. A NARROW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
TERREBONNE PARISH WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF
THAT. WILL NEED TO KEEP VCTS IN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KHUM...KHDC AND KBTR. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WANE WITH SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TUESDAY. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT WINDS APPEAR
TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST
8000 FEET HAVE TRANSPORTED MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS ABOVE THIS LEVEL. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.13 INCHES IS CLOSE TO THE TYPICAL EARLY MAY
VALUE. A 13 CELSIUS TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 600 FEET THAT SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. WINDS ARE UNDER 20
KNOTS UNTIL 40000 FEET WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 45 KNOTS AT 49000
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT
LASTED 98 MINUTES AND ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING WEST OF WAVELAND 20 MILES DOWNRANGE
FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SEVERAL SH/TS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING IN SE LA AND COASTAL MISS
THIS MORNING. BUMPED NUMBERS JUST A TAD FOR THIS EXTRA FOCUS.
AFTER TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE A STALLING FRONT BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE FCST. PRESISTENT
SE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST. IN
FACT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH NEAR OR AT SCY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LARGE FETCH ACROSS THE
GULF SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM LEADING TO SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD START TO BACK DOWN AROUND
THE MIDDLE/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIGHTENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
NERN GULF. SCY FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT WITH THIS
PACKAGE AND THEN GO INTO EFFECT AT 18Z FOR THE INNER WATERS. /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL ALL OR MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS.
LGT SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS TRIED TO PUSH INLAND WITH ONLY
GPT AND BIX BEING IMPACTED SO FAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME EARLY MORNING
FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTS. TODAY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW BUT AN ISLTD
STORM OR TWO COULD LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR OR IFR STATUS THIS AFTN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  60  81  60 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  63  81  62 /  30  10  10   0
ASD  81  63  80  63 /  20  10  10   0
MSY  80  67  80  67 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  79  65  79  65 /  30  10  10   0
PQL  80  60  80  62 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 041247
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
747 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST
8000 FEET HAVE TRANSPORTED MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS ABOVE THIS LEVEL. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.13 INCHES IS CLOSE TO THE TYPICAL EARLY MAY
VALUE. A 13 CELSIUS TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE
TO 600 FEET THAT SHOULD MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. WINDS ARE UNDER 20
KNOTS UNTIL 40000 FEET WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 45 KNOTS AT 49000
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT
LASTED 98 MINUTES AND ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING WEST OF WAVELAND 20 MILES DOWNRANGE
FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SEVERAL SH/TS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING IN SE LA AND COASTAL MISS
THIS MORNING. BUMPED NUMBERS JUST A TAD FOR THIS EXTRA FOCUS.
AFTER TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE A STALLING FRONT BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE FCST. PRESISTENT
SE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST. IN
FACT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH NEAR OR AT SCY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LARGE FETCH ACROSS THE
GULF SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM LEADING TO SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD START TO BACK DOWN AROUND
THE MIDDLE/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIGHTENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
NERN GULF. SCY FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT WITH THIS
PACKAGE AND THEN GO INTO EFFECT AT 18Z FOR THE INNER WATERS. /CAB/

AVIATION...OVERALL ALL OR MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS.
LGT SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS TRIED TO PUSH INLAND WITH ONLY
GPT AND BIX BEING IMPACTED SO FAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME EARLY MORNING
FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTS. TODAY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW BUT AN ISLTD
STORM OR TWO COULD LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR OR IFR STATUS THIS AFTN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  60  81  60 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  63  81  62 /  30  10  10   0
ASD  81  63  80  63 /  20  10  10   0
MSY  80  67  80  67 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  79  65  79  65 /  30  10  10   0
PQL  80  60  80  62 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-557.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 040850
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SEVERAL SH/TS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING IN SE LA AND COASTAL MISS
THIS MORNING. BUMPED NUMBERS JUST A TAD FOR THIS EXTRA FOCUS.
AFTER TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE A STALLING FRONT BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE FCST. PRESISTENT
SE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST. IN
FACT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH NEAR OR AT SCY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LARGE FETCH ACROSS THE
GULF SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM LEADING TO SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD START TO BACK DOWN AROUND
THE MIDDLE/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIGHTENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
NERN GULF. SCY FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT WITH THIS
PACKAGE AND THEN GO INTO EFFECT AT 18Z FOR THE INNER WATERS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL ALL OR MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS.
LGT SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS TRIED TO PUSH INLAND WITH ONLY
GPT AND BIX BEING IMPACTED SO FAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME EARLY MORNING
FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTS. TODAY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW BUT AN ISLTD
STORM OR TWO COULD LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR OR IFR STATUS THIS AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
 SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  60  81  60 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  63  81  62 /  30  10  10   0
ASD  81  63  80  63 /  20  10  10   0
MSY  80  67  80  67 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  79  65  79  65 /  30  10  10   0
PQL  80  60  80  62 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-557.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 040850
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SEVERAL SH/TS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING IN SE LA AND COASTAL MISS
THIS MORNING. BUMPED NUMBERS JUST A TAD FOR THIS EXTRA FOCUS.
AFTER TODAY...DAYTIME HEATING AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE A STALLING FRONT BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE FCST. PRESISTENT
SE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST. IN
FACT STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH NEAR OR AT SCY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED OVER ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LARGE FETCH ACROSS THE
GULF SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM LEADING TO SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE
IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD START TO BACK DOWN AROUND
THE MIDDLE/SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LIGHTENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
NERN GULF. SCY FOR THE OUTER WATERS WILL GO INTO EFFECT WITH THIS
PACKAGE AND THEN GO INTO EFFECT AT 18Z FOR THE INNER WATERS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL ALL OR MOST TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN VFR STATUS.
LGT SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING HAS TRIED TO PUSH INLAND WITH ONLY
GPT AND BIX BEING IMPACTED SO FAR. CANT RULE OUT SOME EARLY MORNING
FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF IMPACTS. TODAY CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW BUT AN ISLTD
STORM OR TWO COULD LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR OR IFR STATUS THIS AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO.
ACTIVITIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
 SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  60  81  60 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  63  81  62 /  30  10  10   0
ASD  81  63  80  63 /  20  10  10   0
MSY  80  67  80  67 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  79  65  79  65 /  30  10  10   0
PQL  80  60  80  62 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR GMZ550-552-555-557.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR GMZ552-555-557.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 040440
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1140 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AT THE
MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE TAF DURING THE DAY MONDAY... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT KBTR. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TOO LOW HOWEVER
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  82  59  82 /  10  20  20  10
BTR  59  82  62  83 /  10  20  20  10
ASD  58  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  65  80  66  81 /  10  20  20  10
GPT  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  58  81  59  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 040440
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1140 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AT THE
MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE TAF DURING THE DAY MONDAY... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT KBTR. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TOO LOW HOWEVER
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  82  59  82 /  10  20  20  10
BTR  59  82  62  83 /  10  20  20  10
ASD  58  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  65  80  66  81 /  10  20  20  10
GPT  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  58  81  59  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 040440
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1140 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO PATCHY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AT THE
MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE TAF DURING THE DAY MONDAY... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT KBTR. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TOO LOW HOWEVER
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  82  59  82 /  10  20  20  10
BTR  59  82  62  83 /  10  20  20  10
ASD  58  80  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  65  80  66  81 /  10  20  20  10
GPT  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  58  81  59  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 040115
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FLIGHT WAS SUCCESSFUL THIS EVENING. BALLOON BURST AT 109836 FEET
ABOVE A POINT JUST WEST OF BAY ST LOUIS NEAR ROAD 273 AND HWY 90.
VERY DRY SOUNDING WITH A PW AT .66 INCHES. FREEZING LEVEL MEASURED
AT 13595 FEET. WINDS SE FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 4K FEET THEN
WESTERLY PEAKING OUT AROUND 45KT AT 50K FEET. /KEG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

OVERALL...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS SLIDING
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OMEGA AND MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO SPARK OFF
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THIS PART OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIP THROUGH...ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE
IF ANY RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE LOW AND MID-
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TONIGHT...BUT AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK...LOWS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THESE READINGS ARE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TURN STRONGER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING...DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY ALSO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 04/06Z WITH SOME HIGH
BASED CU/ALTOCU DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. MARINE LAYER BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED OVER TIME WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR HIGH END
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY 4-5SM BR AT A FEW
LOCATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. WITH DIABATIC HEATING MONDAY
MORNING... BASES SHOULD LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA ON CONVERGENT CLOUD STREAKS AND LAKE/GULF BREEZES IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. 24/RR

MARINE...

A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A FAIRLY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN FACT...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE
OUTER MARINE ZONES BEGINNING TOMORROW AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THESE WINDS PERSIST...SEAS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE 4 TO 7
FEET RANGE OFFSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF SOUTH...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW DROPPING INTO THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE
AND 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  82  59  82 /   0  20  20  10
BTR  59  82  62  83 /   0  20  20  10
ASD  58  80  61  81 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  65  80  66  81 /   0  20  20  10
GPT  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  58  81  59  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 040115
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FLIGHT WAS SUCCESSFUL THIS EVENING. BALLOON BURST AT 109836 FEET
ABOVE A POINT JUST WEST OF BAY ST LOUIS NEAR ROAD 273 AND HWY 90.
VERY DRY SOUNDING WITH A PW AT .66 INCHES. FREEZING LEVEL MEASURED
AT 13595 FEET. WINDS SE FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 4K FEET THEN
WESTERLY PEAKING OUT AROUND 45KT AT 50K FEET. /KEG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...

OVERALL...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS SLIDING
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OMEGA AND MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO SPARK OFF
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THIS PART OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIP THROUGH...ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE
IF ANY RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE LOW AND MID-
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TONIGHT...BUT AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK...LOWS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THESE READINGS ARE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TURN STRONGER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING...DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY ALSO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 04/06Z WITH SOME HIGH
BASED CU/ALTOCU DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. MARINE LAYER BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED OVER TIME WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR HIGH END
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY 4-5SM BR AT A FEW
LOCATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. WITH DIABATIC HEATING MONDAY
MORNING... BASES SHOULD LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA ON CONVERGENT CLOUD STREAKS AND LAKE/GULF BREEZES IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. 24/RR

MARINE...

A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A FAIRLY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN FACT...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE
OUTER MARINE ZONES BEGINNING TOMORROW AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THESE WINDS PERSIST...SEAS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE 4 TO 7
FEET RANGE OFFSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF SOUTH...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW DROPPING INTO THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE
AND 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  82  59  82 /   0  20  20  10
BTR  59  82  62  83 /   0  20  20  10
ASD  58  80  61  81 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  65  80  66  81 /   0  20  20  10
GPT  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  58  81  59  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 032030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...

OVERALL...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE GULF
SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAIRLY BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS SLIDING
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY THAT SHOULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH OMEGA AND MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO SPARK OFF
SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THIS PART OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SLIP THROUGH...ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE
IF ANY RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE IN THE LOW AND MID-
LEVELS...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON MONDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BY WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL COOL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TONIGHT...BUT AS DEWPOINTS
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK...LOWS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THESE READINGS ARE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TURN STRONGER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING...DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY ALSO REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 04/06Z WITH SOME HIGH
BASED CU/ALTOCU DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET. MARINE LAYER BECOMES
MORE PRONOUNCED OVER TIME WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR HIGH END
IFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY 4-5SM BR AT A FEW
LOCATIONS GENERALLY BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. WITH DIABATIC HEATING MONDAY
MORNING... BASES SHOULD LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA ON CONVERGENT CLOUD STREAKS AND LAKE/GULF BREEZES IN THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP TOMORROW AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A FAIRLY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. IN FACT...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE
OUTER MARINE ZONES BEGINNING TOMORROW AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THESE WINDS PERSIST...SEAS WILL EASILY RISE INTO THE 4 TO 7
FEET RANGE OFFSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF SOUTH...WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW DROPPING INTO THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE
AND 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  82  59  82 /   0  20  20  10
BTR  59  82  62  83 /   0  20  20  10
ASD  58  80  61  81 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  65  80  66  81 /   0  20  20  10
GPT  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  58  81  59  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32




000
FXUS64 KLIX 031657
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING IN STREAKS GENERALLY BASED AROUND
3500FT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION GENERALLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THROUGH ABOUT 1430Z. SHORT-RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
BE OMITTED FROM TAFS...BUT MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AROUND THE AREA
IN-FLIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. ANOTHER STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 FEET WITH AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM 8100 TO 9500 FEET. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAINS WELL
BELOW NORMAL AROUND 0.75 INCHES. WINDS ARE UNDER 20 KNOTS UNTIL
ABOUT 38500 FEET AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS AT 50000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THAT LASTED 112
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.1
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER BAY ST. LOUIS 31 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 031657
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING IN STREAKS GENERALLY BASED AROUND
3500FT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION GENERALLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THROUGH ABOUT 1430Z. SHORT-RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
BE OMITTED FROM TAFS...BUT MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AROUND THE AREA
IN-FLIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. ANOTHER STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 FEET WITH AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM 8100 TO 9500 FEET. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAINS WELL
BELOW NORMAL AROUND 0.75 INCHES. WINDS ARE UNDER 20 KNOTS UNTIL
ABOUT 38500 FEET AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS AT 50000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THAT LASTED 112
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.1
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER BAY ST. LOUIS 31 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 031657
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THOUGH SOME
CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING IN STREAKS GENERALLY BASED AROUND
3500FT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY AT A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION GENERALLY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THROUGH ABOUT 1430Z. SHORT-RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL
BE OMITTED FROM TAFS...BUT MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AROUND THE AREA
IN-FLIGHT. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. ANOTHER STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 FEET WITH AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM 8100 TO 9500 FEET. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAINS WELL
BELOW NORMAL AROUND 0.75 INCHES. WINDS ARE UNDER 20 KNOTS UNTIL
ABOUT 38500 FEET AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS AT 50000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THAT LASTED 112
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.1
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER BAY ST. LOUIS 31 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 031300
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. ANOTHER STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 FEET WITH AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM 8100 TO 9500 FEET. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAINS WELL
BELOW NORMAL AROUND 0.75 INCHES. WINDS ARE UNDER 20 KNOTS UNTIL
ABOUT 38500 FEET AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS AT 50000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THAT LASTED 112
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.1
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER BAY ST. LOUIS 31 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 031300
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. ANOTHER STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 FEET WITH AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM 8100 TO 9500 FEET. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAINS WELL
BELOW NORMAL AROUND 0.75 INCHES. WINDS ARE UNDER 20 KNOTS UNTIL
ABOUT 38500 FEET AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS AT 50000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THAT LASTED 112
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.1
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER BAY ST. LOUIS 31 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 031300
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. ANOTHER STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 FEET WITH AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM 8100 TO 9500 FEET. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAINS WELL
BELOW NORMAL AROUND 0.75 INCHES. WINDS ARE UNDER 20 KNOTS UNTIL
ABOUT 38500 FEET AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS AT 50000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THAT LASTED 112
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.1
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER BAY ST. LOUIS 31 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 031300
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. ANOTHER STOUT TEMPERATURE INVERSION
EXISTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 FEET WITH AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM 8100 TO 9500 FEET. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE REMAINS WELL
BELOW NORMAL AROUND 0.75 INCHES. WINDS ARE UNDER 20 KNOTS UNTIL
ABOUT 38500 FEET AND A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 42 KNOTS AT 50000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THAT LASTED 112
MINUTES THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21.1
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER BAY ST. LOUIS 31 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 030849
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO. ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH                VISIBILITY
EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH
IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY         TROPICAL
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR
MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS;
EVENTS OF NATIONAL          SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 030849
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST
OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC RIDGE...NOW TO THE
EAST HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY
BRINGING UP DEWPOINTS. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY SHOWER
OR 2 TO DEVELOP TODAY BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY MENTION OF RAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE AS MUCH GOING INTO MONDAY AS A NORTHERN
CLIPPER TROUGH WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AT
THIS TIME AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDING THEN INDICATES PWAT INCREASING
ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THIS WILL REMOVE CIN AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE ALLOWED TO BE REALIZED. THE FORECAST POPS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN BUILDING FROM THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD. RAIN CHANCES...NOT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH...WILL FADE TO
ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH MID 80 HIGHS BECOMING
BETTER ESTABLISHED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND BECOME CNTRD
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW MORNING. ON SHORE IS ALREADY
SETTING BACK UP AND WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LGT
WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH SEAS
UP TO 6 FT. BY LATE MON. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT FOG AT THE USUAL PROBLEM SITES AND VSBYS COULD LEAD TO
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BUT AS SOON AS THE SUN COMES UP VFR STATUS WILL
DOMINATE. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE...GREEN. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NO. ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH                VISIBILITY
EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH
IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY         TROPICAL
EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR
MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS;
EVENTS OF NATIONAL          SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  10
BTR  82  59  82  63 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  77  62  79  64 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  78  65  79  68 /  10  20  30  10
GPT  77  64  79  65 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  78  62  81  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 030427
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY PREVAIL DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AT SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES.
11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  82  58  81 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  60  80  60  82 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  65  77  68  79 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  65  78  68  79 /   0   0  20  30
GPT  65  77  67  79 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  61  78  67  81 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 030427
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY PREVAIL DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AT SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES.
11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  82  58  81 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  60  80  60  82 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  65  77  68  79 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  65  78  68  79 /   0   0  20  30
GPT  65  77  67  79 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  61  78  67  81 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 030427
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY PREVAIL DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AT SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES.
11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  82  58  81 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  60  80  60  82 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  65  77  68  79 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  65  78  68  79 /   0   0  20  30
GPT  65  77  67  79 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  61  78  67  81 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 030427
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY PREVAIL DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AT SOME OF THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES.
11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  82  58  81 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  60  80  60  82 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  65  77  68  79 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  65  78  68  79 /   0   0  20  30
GPT  65  77  67  79 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  61  78  67  81 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 022058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
JUST A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ONSET INTO SUNDAY WITH FAVORABLE
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. NO WEATHER ISSUES
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO BRING
DEEP FETCHED ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SHALLOW CONVERGENT
FLOW MAY IMPART ENOUGH FOCUS ON GULF BREEZE TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO
IN MAX HEATING. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THIS IN MIND. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME HYBRID
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST THAT MATURES TO THE POINT OF
INFLUENCING AND ENHANCING THE DRAINAGE FLOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IN TIME. THE GFS INDICATES ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURE
PROLONG SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EVOLVE
THIS FEATURE AND MUCH WEAKER...BUT END RESULT IS A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. ALL THIS BEING SAID MAINLY BECAUSE IT WILL HAVE
SOME INDIRECT BEARING ON WHAT TRANSPIRES LOCALLY. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INDICATING TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY PUSHING UPPER 90S TO 101 IN THE DAY 8-10
RANGE /BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE/ BUT DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT FORMS AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCB...KHUM...KBTR...AND KHDC BETWEEN 09Z
AND 13Z. KMCB WILL SEE THE STRONGEST INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE MILE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. KHUM
COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG...BUT THE
RISK IS SOMEWHAT LOWER AT THIS TERMINAL.  32

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BECOME STEADY STATE WITH
SEAS BUILDING MAINLY ON DEEP GROUND SWELL BY TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  87  60  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  80  65  77  68 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  78  65  78  68 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  80  65  77  67 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  80  61  78  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR





000
FXUS64 KLIX 022058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
JUST A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ONSET INTO SUNDAY WITH FAVORABLE
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. NO WEATHER ISSUES
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO BRING
DEEP FETCHED ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SHALLOW CONVERGENT
FLOW MAY IMPART ENOUGH FOCUS ON GULF BREEZE TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO
IN MAX HEATING. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THIS IN MIND. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME HYBRID
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST THAT MATURES TO THE POINT OF
INFLUENCING AND ENHANCING THE DRAINAGE FLOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IN TIME. THE GFS INDICATES ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURE
PROLONG SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EVOLVE
THIS FEATURE AND MUCH WEAKER...BUT END RESULT IS A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. ALL THIS BEING SAID MAINLY BECAUSE IT WILL HAVE
SOME INDIRECT BEARING ON WHAT TRANSPIRES LOCALLY. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INDICATING TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY PUSHING UPPER 90S TO 101 IN THE DAY 8-10
RANGE /BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE/ BUT DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT FORMS AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCB...KHUM...KBTR...AND KHDC BETWEEN 09Z
AND 13Z. KMCB WILL SEE THE STRONGEST INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE MILE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. KHUM
COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG...BUT THE
RISK IS SOMEWHAT LOWER AT THIS TERMINAL.  32

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BECOME STEADY STATE WITH
SEAS BUILDING MAINLY ON DEEP GROUND SWELL BY TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  87  60  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  80  65  77  68 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  78  65  78  68 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  80  65  77  67 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  80  61  78  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR





000
FXUS64 KLIX 022058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
JUST A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ONSET INTO SUNDAY WITH FAVORABLE
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. NO WEATHER ISSUES
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO BRING
DEEP FETCHED ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SHALLOW CONVERGENT
FLOW MAY IMPART ENOUGH FOCUS ON GULF BREEZE TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO
IN MAX HEATING. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THIS IN MIND. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME HYBRID
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST THAT MATURES TO THE POINT OF
INFLUENCING AND ENHANCING THE DRAINAGE FLOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IN TIME. THE GFS INDICATES ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURE
PROLONG SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EVOLVE
THIS FEATURE AND MUCH WEAKER...BUT END RESULT IS A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. ALL THIS BEING SAID MAINLY BECAUSE IT WILL HAVE
SOME INDIRECT BEARING ON WHAT TRANSPIRES LOCALLY. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INDICATING TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY PUSHING UPPER 90S TO 101 IN THE DAY 8-10
RANGE /BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE/ BUT DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT FORMS AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCB...KHUM...KBTR...AND KHDC BETWEEN 09Z
AND 13Z. KMCB WILL SEE THE STRONGEST INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE MILE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. KHUM
COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG...BUT THE
RISK IS SOMEWHAT LOWER AT THIS TERMINAL.  32

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BECOME STEADY STATE WITH
SEAS BUILDING MAINLY ON DEEP GROUND SWELL BY TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  87  60  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  80  65  77  68 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  78  65  78  68 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  80  65  77  67 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  80  61  78  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR




000
FXUS64 KLIX 022058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
JUST A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ONSET INTO SUNDAY WITH FAVORABLE
SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. NO WEATHER ISSUES
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO BRING
DEEP FETCHED ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME SHALLOW CONVERGENT
FLOW MAY IMPART ENOUGH FOCUS ON GULF BREEZE TO POP A SHOWER OR TWO
IN MAX HEATING. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THIS IN MIND. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME HYBRID
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST THAT MATURES TO THE POINT OF
INFLUENCING AND ENHANCING THE DRAINAGE FLOW INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IN TIME. THE GFS INDICATES ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURE
PROLONG SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EVOLVE
THIS FEATURE AND MUCH WEAKER...BUT END RESULT IS A SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. ALL THIS BEING SAID MAINLY BECAUSE IT WILL HAVE
SOME INDIRECT BEARING ON WHAT TRANSPIRES LOCALLY. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INDICATING TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY PUSHING UPPER 90S TO 101 IN THE DAY 8-10
RANGE /BEYOND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE/ BUT DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT FORMS AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCB...KHUM...KBTR...AND KHDC BETWEEN 09Z
AND 13Z. KMCB WILL SEE THE STRONGEST INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE MILE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. KHUM
COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG...BUT THE
RISK IS SOMEWHAT LOWER AT THIS TERMINAL.  32

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BECOME STEADY STATE WITH
SEAS BUILDING MAINLY ON DEEP GROUND SWELL BY TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  87  60  80  60 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  80  65  77  68 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  78  65  78  68 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  80  65  77  67 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  80  61  78  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR




000
FXUS64 KLIX 021715
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT FORMS AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCB...KHUM...KBTR...AND KHDC BETWEEN 09Z
AND 13Z. KMCB WILL SEE THE STRONGEST INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE MILE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. KHUM
COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG...BUT THE
RISK IS SOMEWHAT LOWER AT THIS TERMINAL.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  80  57  80 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  58  81  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  56  79  61  79 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  61  79  65  79 /   0   0  20  30
GPT  59  78  64  78 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  54  79  62  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 021715
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT FORMS AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCB...KHUM...KBTR...AND KHDC BETWEEN 09Z
AND 13Z. KMCB WILL SEE THE STRONGEST INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE MILE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. KHUM
COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG...BUT THE
RISK IS SOMEWHAT LOWER AT THIS TERMINAL.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  80  57  80 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  58  81  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  56  79  61  79 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  61  79  65  79 /   0   0  20  30
GPT  59  78  64  78 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  54  79  62  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 021715
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT FORMS AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCB...KHUM...KBTR...AND KHDC BETWEEN 09Z
AND 13Z. KMCB WILL SEE THE STRONGEST INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE MILE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. KHUM
COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG...BUT THE
RISK IS SOMEWHAT LOWER AT THIS TERMINAL.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  80  57  80 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  58  81  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  56  79  61  79 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  61  79  65  79 /   0   0  20  30
GPT  59  78  64  78 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  54  79  62  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 021715
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERSION THAT FORMS AROUND DAYBREAK...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KMCB...KHUM...KBTR...AND KHDC BETWEEN 09Z
AND 13Z. KMCB WILL SEE THE STRONGEST INVERSION TONIGHT...WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND ONE MILE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. KHUM
COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF IFR RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG...BUT THE
RISK IS SOMEWHAT LOWER AT THIS TERMINAL.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  55  80  57  80 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  58  81  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  56  79  61  79 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  61  79  65  79 /   0   0  20  30
GPT  59  78  64  78 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  54  79  62  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 021413
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
913 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
NEAR 0.60 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 1000 FEET WITH A WEAKER ELEVATED INVERSION AROUND 7500 FEET.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 20 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 29000 FEET AND A
PEAK WIND SPEED OF ONLY 53 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 47800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE
BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SLOW MOISTENING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
RAIN CHANCES SNEAKING INTO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WED
SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES WITH MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO GIVE WAY TO
DAYTIME SH/TS.

LONG TERM...
EASTERLIES BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
REGIONS. EASTERLY WAVES WILL BEGIN TO BE FOCUSED ON AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE SUMMER SEASON. THESE USUALLY PROVIDE MOST OF OUR
WIDEPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS AND NIGHTS. OTHERWISE ITS OUR DAYTIME
THERMAL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL BE
REPONSIBLE FOR DEPOSITING STATIONARY FRONTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA WHICH WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN AS THE SFC LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS MOVES EAST THROUGH MONDAY. ALL GLOBAL MODEL
SUITES SHOW AN ELONGATED EASTERLY WAVE INTERACTING WITH THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE BAHAMAS THEN CUTTING OFF A SFC LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS AREA EAST OF THE FLA GA
COASTLINE IS USUALLY A CONDUCIVE AREA FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS
AND ALTHOUGH EARLY IN THE YEAR...MAY CAN STILL PRODUCE. NO ISSUES
FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BUT IT DOES ILLUDE TO THE SEASON JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING TODAY...NO
IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED AND VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU
THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ENTIRE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THRU
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND DIRECTION TO ROTATE AROUND TO
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN ONSHORE. SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH THAT RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING TO THE WEST. THE LOCAL RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD BRING SPEEDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  55  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  58  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  80  56  79  61 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  78  61  79  65 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  79  59  78  64 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  80  54  79  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 021413
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
913 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
NEAR 0.60 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. THERE IS A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE
TO 1000 FEET WITH A WEAKER ELEVATED INVERSION AROUND 7500 FEET.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 20 KNOTS IN THE LOWEST 29000 FEET AND A
PEAK WIND SPEED OF ONLY 53 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 47800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE
BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SLOW MOISTENING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
RAIN CHANCES SNEAKING INTO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WED
SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES WITH MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO GIVE WAY TO
DAYTIME SH/TS.

LONG TERM...
EASTERLIES BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
REGIONS. EASTERLY WAVES WILL BEGIN TO BE FOCUSED ON AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE SUMMER SEASON. THESE USUALLY PROVIDE MOST OF OUR
WIDEPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS AND NIGHTS. OTHERWISE ITS OUR DAYTIME
THERMAL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL BE
REPONSIBLE FOR DEPOSITING STATIONARY FRONTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA WHICH WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN AS THE SFC LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS MOVES EAST THROUGH MONDAY. ALL GLOBAL MODEL
SUITES SHOW AN ELONGATED EASTERLY WAVE INTERACTING WITH THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE BAHAMAS THEN CUTTING OFF A SFC LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS AREA EAST OF THE FLA GA
COASTLINE IS USUALLY A CONDUCIVE AREA FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS
AND ALTHOUGH EARLY IN THE YEAR...MAY CAN STILL PRODUCE. NO ISSUES
FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BUT IT DOES ILLUDE TO THE SEASON JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING TODAY...NO
IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED AND VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU
THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ENTIRE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THRU
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND DIRECTION TO ROTATE AROUND TO
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN ONSHORE. SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH THAT RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING TO THE WEST. THE LOCAL RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD BRING SPEEDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  55  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  58  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  80  56  79  61 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  78  61  79  65 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  79  59  78  64 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  80  54  79  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 020750
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SLOW MOISTENING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
RAIN CHANCES SNEAKING INTO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WED
SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES WITH MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO GIVE WAY TO
DAYTIME SH/TS.

.LONG TERM...
EASTERLIES BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
REGIONS. EASTERLY WAVES WILL BEGIN TO BE FOCUSED ON AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE SUMMER SEASON. THESE USUALLY PROVIDE MOST OF OUR
WIDEPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS AND NIGHTS. OTHERWISE ITS OUR DAYTIME
THERMAL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL BE
REPONSIBLE FOR DEPOSITING STATIONARY FRONTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA WHICH WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN AS THE SFC LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS MOVES EAST THROUGH MONDAY. ALL GLOBAL MODEL
SUITES SHOW AN ELONGATED EASTERLY WAVE INTERACTING WITH THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE BAHAMAS THEN CUTTING OFF A SFC LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS AREA EAST OF THE FLA GA
COASTLINE IS USUALLY A CONDUCIVE AREA FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS
AND ALTHOUGH EARLY IN THE YEAR...MAY CAN STILL PRODUCE. NO ISSUES
FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BUT IT DOES ILLUDE TO THE SEASON JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING TODAY...NO
IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED AND VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU
THE PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ENTIRE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THRU
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND DIRECTION TO ROTATE AROUND TO
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN ONSHORE. SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH THAT RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING TO THE WEST. THE LOCAL RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD BRING SPEEDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.

MEFFER
&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  55  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  58  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  80  56  79  61 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  78  61  79  65 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  79  59  78  64 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  80  54  79  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 020750
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SLOW MOISTENING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME
RAIN CHANCES SNEAKING INTO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WED
SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES WITH MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO GIVE WAY TO
DAYTIME SH/TS.

.LONG TERM...
EASTERLIES BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
REGIONS. EASTERLY WAVES WILL BEGIN TO BE FOCUSED ON AS WE MOVE
TOWARD THE SUMMER SEASON. THESE USUALLY PROVIDE MOST OF OUR
WIDEPREAD CONVECTIVE DAYS AND NIGHTS. OTHERWISE ITS OUR DAYTIME
THERMAL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EAST COAST TROUGHING WILL BE
REPONSIBLE FOR DEPOSITING STATIONARY FRONTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF FLORIDA WHICH WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN AS THE SFC LOW
OFF THE CAROLINAS MOVES EAST THROUGH MONDAY. ALL GLOBAL MODEL
SUITES SHOW AN ELONGATED EASTERLY WAVE INTERACTING WITH THIS
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE BAHAMAS THEN CUTTING OFF A SFC LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS AREA EAST OF THE FLA GA
COASTLINE IS USUALLY A CONDUCIVE AREA FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS
AND ALTHOUGH EARLY IN THE YEAR...MAY CAN STILL PRODUCE. NO ISSUES
FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BUT IT DOES ILLUDE TO THE SEASON JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING TODAY...NO
IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED AND VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THRU
THE PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ENTIRE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTHEAST THRU
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE WIND DIRECTION TO ROTATE AROUND TO
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND REMAIN ONSHORE. SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH THAT RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE AND LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING TO THE WEST. THE LOCAL RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD BRING SPEEDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE.

MEFFER
&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  55  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  58  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  80  56  79  61 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  78  61  79  65 /   0   0   0  20
GPT  79  59  78  64 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  80  54  79  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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