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000
FXUS64 KLIX 031059
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
459 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FORECAST ISSUES IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. FIRST...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SECOND...WHAT EFFECTS THE
FOG...THE MARINE LAYER...AND ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL HAVE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THIRD...DETERMINING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE VERY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WHETHER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN BEFORE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

THE BASIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH LOCALLY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARM
AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY
MUCH WIDESPREAD SINCE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE WARMER OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY AN HOUR OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS
OVER AND NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND COAST. REGARDING THE RAIN
CHANCES...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH ON RADAR SINCE MIDNIGHT...SO
LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNUP...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SOME
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES
TO RESPOND WELL LIKE YESTERDAY...SO HAVE GONE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MAV HIGHS...EXCEPT SHAVED A COUPLE DEGREES OFF IN COASTAL AREAS
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE PERSISTENTLY COOL NEAR
SHORE WATER.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE A REPEAT WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THE MORE
INLAND AREAS BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT. ANY RAINFALL TONIGHT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG. AFTER THE
FOG LIFTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE WARM SIDE...FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THERE COULD BE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IN SOME
AREAS...HOWEVER THE HIGHER LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT LOWER AS WELL...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES /IN THE LOWER 30S/ WILL OCCUR AFTER 6 AM AND LIKELY
IN THE 7 TO 9 AM PERIOD...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE 6 AM TO 10 AM PERIOD FOR THE SAME GENERAL
AREA AS BEFORE...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR NEW
ROADS TO MCCOMB...AND HAVE ONLY INDICATED TRACE TO ONE HUNDREDTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH THE MODEL TRENDS...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE OF COLD RAIN
WILL BE ENDING DURING THE LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...BUT LINGERING IN SOME COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AND BRISK NORTH
WIND PRODUCING COLDER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RATHER COLD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
SOME PRIOR RUNS. HAVE BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDER ECMWF
TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS A LIGHT FREEZE TO A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY BRING OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE AND
CHANCE OF RAIN AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE TIMING OF THIS AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SHOULD FINALLY RETURN BACK CLOSER TO
THE SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

22/TD
&&

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD FOG IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASED MIXING
AFTER 16Z...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR RANGE...AND
THE CEILINGS TO RISE TO AROUND 1000 FEET.  CEILINGS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RISE TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET AFTER 20Z...RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 03Z.  EXPECT TO SEE FOG BEGIN FORMING
AROUND 03Z AND GRADUALLY THICKEN BACK TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AFTER 06Z.  CEILINGS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 200 FEET OR LESS AS THE
FOG INCREASES.  32

&&

MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE ADVECTION FOG TO FORM OVER THE COOLER
NEARSHORE WATERS...SOUNDS...AND TIDAL LAKES THIS MORNING.  THE DENSE
FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.
UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT FLOW WILL EASE BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS.  A GENERAL NORTHEAST WIND OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET IN THE
OPEN GULF WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. 32

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             DENSE FOG THREAT THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  63  78  32 /  40  20  40  80
BTR  78  65  80  34 /  40  20  40  70
ASD  74  59  77  41 /  20  20  30  60
MSY  77  63  80  44 /  30  20  30  60
GPT  71  59  75  46 /  20  20  30  60
PQL  72  57  76  47 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 031059
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
459 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FORECAST ISSUES IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. FIRST...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SECOND...WHAT EFFECTS THE
FOG...THE MARINE LAYER...AND ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL HAVE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THIRD...DETERMINING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE VERY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WHETHER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN BEFORE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

THE BASIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH LOCALLY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARM
AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY
MUCH WIDESPREAD SINCE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE WARMER OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY AN HOUR OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS
OVER AND NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND COAST. REGARDING THE RAIN
CHANCES...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH ON RADAR SINCE MIDNIGHT...SO
LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNUP...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SOME
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES
TO RESPOND WELL LIKE YESTERDAY...SO HAVE GONE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MAV HIGHS...EXCEPT SHAVED A COUPLE DEGREES OFF IN COASTAL AREAS
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE PERSISTENTLY COOL NEAR
SHORE WATER.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE A REPEAT WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THE MORE
INLAND AREAS BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT. ANY RAINFALL TONIGHT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG. AFTER THE
FOG LIFTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE WARM SIDE...FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THERE COULD BE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IN SOME
AREAS...HOWEVER THE HIGHER LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT LOWER AS WELL...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES /IN THE LOWER 30S/ WILL OCCUR AFTER 6 AM AND LIKELY
IN THE 7 TO 9 AM PERIOD...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE 6 AM TO 10 AM PERIOD FOR THE SAME GENERAL
AREA AS BEFORE...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR NEW
ROADS TO MCCOMB...AND HAVE ONLY INDICATED TRACE TO ONE HUNDREDTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH THE MODEL TRENDS...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE OF COLD RAIN
WILL BE ENDING DURING THE LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...BUT LINGERING IN SOME COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AND BRISK NORTH
WIND PRODUCING COLDER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RATHER COLD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
SOME PRIOR RUNS. HAVE BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDER ECMWF
TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS A LIGHT FREEZE TO A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY BRING OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE AND
CHANCE OF RAIN AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE TIMING OF THIS AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SHOULD FINALLY RETURN BACK CLOSER TO
THE SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

22/TD
&&

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD FOG IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASED MIXING
AFTER 16Z...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR RANGE...AND
THE CEILINGS TO RISE TO AROUND 1000 FEET.  CEILINGS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RISE TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET AFTER 20Z...RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 03Z.  EXPECT TO SEE FOG BEGIN FORMING
AROUND 03Z AND GRADUALLY THICKEN BACK TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AFTER 06Z.  CEILINGS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 200 FEET OR LESS AS THE
FOG INCREASES.  32

&&

MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE ADVECTION FOG TO FORM OVER THE COOLER
NEARSHORE WATERS...SOUNDS...AND TIDAL LAKES THIS MORNING.  THE DENSE
FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.
UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT FLOW WILL EASE BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS.  A GENERAL NORTHEAST WIND OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET IN THE
OPEN GULF WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. 32

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             DENSE FOG THREAT THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  63  78  32 /  40  20  40  80
BTR  78  65  80  34 /  40  20  40  70
ASD  74  59  77  41 /  20  20  30  60
MSY  77  63  80  44 /  30  20  30  60
GPT  71  59  75  46 /  20  20  30  60
PQL  72  57  76  47 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 031059
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
459 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FORECAST ISSUES IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. FIRST...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SECOND...WHAT EFFECTS THE
FOG...THE MARINE LAYER...AND ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL HAVE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THIRD...DETERMINING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE VERY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WHETHER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN BEFORE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

THE BASIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH LOCALLY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARM
AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY
MUCH WIDESPREAD SINCE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE WARMER OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY AN HOUR OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS
OVER AND NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND COAST. REGARDING THE RAIN
CHANCES...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH ON RADAR SINCE MIDNIGHT...SO
LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNUP...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SOME
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES
TO RESPOND WELL LIKE YESTERDAY...SO HAVE GONE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MAV HIGHS...EXCEPT SHAVED A COUPLE DEGREES OFF IN COASTAL AREAS
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE PERSISTENTLY COOL NEAR
SHORE WATER.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE A REPEAT WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THE MORE
INLAND AREAS BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT. ANY RAINFALL TONIGHT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG. AFTER THE
FOG LIFTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE WARM SIDE...FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THERE COULD BE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IN SOME
AREAS...HOWEVER THE HIGHER LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT LOWER AS WELL...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES /IN THE LOWER 30S/ WILL OCCUR AFTER 6 AM AND LIKELY
IN THE 7 TO 9 AM PERIOD...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE 6 AM TO 10 AM PERIOD FOR THE SAME GENERAL
AREA AS BEFORE...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR NEW
ROADS TO MCCOMB...AND HAVE ONLY INDICATED TRACE TO ONE HUNDREDTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH THE MODEL TRENDS...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE OF COLD RAIN
WILL BE ENDING DURING THE LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...BUT LINGERING IN SOME COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AND BRISK NORTH
WIND PRODUCING COLDER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RATHER COLD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
SOME PRIOR RUNS. HAVE BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDER ECMWF
TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS A LIGHT FREEZE TO A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY BRING OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE AND
CHANCE OF RAIN AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE TIMING OF THIS AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SHOULD FINALLY RETURN BACK CLOSER TO
THE SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

22/TD
&&

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD FOG IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASED MIXING
AFTER 16Z...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR RANGE...AND
THE CEILINGS TO RISE TO AROUND 1000 FEET.  CEILINGS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RISE TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET AFTER 20Z...RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 03Z.  EXPECT TO SEE FOG BEGIN FORMING
AROUND 03Z AND GRADUALLY THICKEN BACK TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AFTER 06Z.  CEILINGS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 200 FEET OR LESS AS THE
FOG INCREASES.  32

&&

MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE ADVECTION FOG TO FORM OVER THE COOLER
NEARSHORE WATERS...SOUNDS...AND TIDAL LAKES THIS MORNING.  THE DENSE
FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.
UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT FLOW WILL EASE BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS.  A GENERAL NORTHEAST WIND OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET IN THE
OPEN GULF WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. 32

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             DENSE FOG THREAT THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  63  78  32 /  40  20  40  80
BTR  78  65  80  34 /  40  20  40  70
ASD  74  59  77  41 /  20  20  30  60
MSY  77  63  80  44 /  30  20  30  60
GPT  71  59  75  46 /  20  20  30  60
PQL  72  57  76  47 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 031059
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
459 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FORECAST ISSUES IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF
THE FORECAST. FIRST...DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SECOND...WHAT EFFECTS THE
FOG...THE MARINE LAYER...AND ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL HAVE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
THIRD...DETERMINING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE VERY STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WHETHER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN BEFORE DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

THE BASIC PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH LOCALLY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARM
AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PRETTY
MUCH WIDESPREAD SINCE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE WARMER OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING...AND THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BY AN HOUR OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS
OVER AND NEAR THE TIDAL LAKES AND COAST. REGARDING THE RAIN
CHANCES...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH ON RADAR SINCE MIDNIGHT...SO
LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNUP...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MAINLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SOME
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON FOR TEMPERATURES
TO RESPOND WELL LIKE YESTERDAY...SO HAVE GONE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
MAV HIGHS...EXCEPT SHAVED A COUPLE DEGREES OFF IN COASTAL AREAS
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMING OFF THE PERSISTENTLY COOL NEAR
SHORE WATER.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE A REPEAT WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THE MORE
INLAND AREAS BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT. ANY RAINFALL TONIGHT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN EARLY THIS MORNING...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT THE VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG. AFTER THE
FOG LIFTS WEDNESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE WARM SIDE...FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THERE COULD BE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND IN SOME
AREAS...HOWEVER THE HIGHER LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT LOWER AS WELL...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES /IN THE LOWER 30S/ WILL OCCUR AFTER 6 AM AND LIKELY
IN THE 7 TO 9 AM PERIOD...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A CHANCE OF RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE 6 AM TO 10 AM PERIOD FOR THE SAME GENERAL
AREA AS BEFORE...BASICALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR NEW
ROADS TO MCCOMB...AND HAVE ONLY INDICATED TRACE TO ONE HUNDREDTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH THE MODEL TRENDS...THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS...IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. THE CHANCE OF COLD RAIN
WILL BE ENDING DURING THE LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...BUT LINGERING IN SOME COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AND BRISK NORTH
WIND PRODUCING COLDER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RATHER COLD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
SOME PRIOR RUNS. HAVE BLENDED IN SOME OF THE COLDER ECMWF
TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS A LIGHT FREEZE TO A LARGE PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY BRING OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE AND
CHANCE OF RAIN AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE TIMING OF THIS AT THE MOMENT. OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ON THE COLD SIDE WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN GRADUALLY RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND SHOULD FINALLY RETURN BACK CLOSER TO
THE SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY.

22/TD
&&

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD FOG IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 15-16Z THIS
MORNING.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME INCREASED MIXING
AFTER 16Z...ALLOWING VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR RANGE...AND
THE CEILINGS TO RISE TO AROUND 1000 FEET.  CEILINGS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RISE TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET AFTER 20Z...RESULTING IN
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE
PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 03Z.  EXPECT TO SEE FOG BEGIN FORMING
AROUND 03Z AND GRADUALLY THICKEN BACK TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AFTER 06Z.  CEILINGS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 200 FEET OR LESS AS THE
FOG INCREASES.  32

&&

MARINE...

ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR DENSE ADVECTION FOG TO FORM OVER THE COOLER
NEARSHORE WATERS...SOUNDS...AND TIDAL LAKES THIS MORNING.  THE DENSE
FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING.
UNFORTUNATELY...ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
THESE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON
FRIDAY...GRADIENT FLOW WILL EASE BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS.  A GENERAL NORTHEAST WIND OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSTANT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FEET IN THE
OPEN GULF WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. 32

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             DENSE FOG THREAT THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  63  78  32 /  40  20  40  80
BTR  78  65  80  34 /  40  20  40  70
ASD  74  59  77  41 /  20  20  30  60
MSY  77  63  80  44 /  30  20  30  60
GPT  71  59  75  46 /  20  20  30  60
PQL  72  57  76  47 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 030532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z IN THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...PREVAILING
LIFR AND VLIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS AND CEILINGS BELOW 300 FEET. SOME MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR AFTER 16Z...ALLOWING FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND IFR CEILINGS AROUND 800-1000 FEET TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET BY
20Z...RESULTING IN PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
AFTER 03Z...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO REFORM OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  75  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
BTR  61  77  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
ASD  60  76  62  78 /  30  20  20  40
MSY  62  77  65  78 /  30  20  20  40
GPT  59  72  61  73 /  30  20  20  40
PQL  57  73  60  73 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 030532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z IN THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...PREVAILING
LIFR AND VLIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS AND CEILINGS BELOW 300 FEET. SOME MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR AFTER 16Z...ALLOWING FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND IFR CEILINGS AROUND 800-1000 FEET TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET BY
20Z...RESULTING IN PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
AFTER 03Z...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO REFORM OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  75  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
BTR  61  77  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
ASD  60  76  62  78 /  30  20  20  40
MSY  62  77  65  78 /  30  20  20  40
GPT  59  72  61  73 /  30  20  20  40
PQL  57  73  60  73 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 030532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 15-16Z IN THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...PREVAILING
LIFR AND VLIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS AND CEILINGS BELOW 300 FEET. SOME MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR AFTER 16Z...ALLOWING FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES AND IFR CEILINGS AROUND 800-1000 FEET TO DEVELOP.
CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE TO AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET BY
20Z...RESULTING IN PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
AFTER 03Z...CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR LOW STRATUS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO REFORM OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  75  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
BTR  61  77  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
ASD  60  76  62  78 /  30  20  20  40
MSY  62  77  65  78 /  30  20  20  40
GPT  59  72  61  73 /  30  20  20  40
PQL  57  73  60  73 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 022136
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WARM/HUMID AIR IS
ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE. FOG NEVER COMPLETELY CLEARED FROM THE AREA TODAY AND EXPECT
THAT IT WILL BECOME DENSE IN AT LEAST PATCHES AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...SPREADING IN COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 9PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9AM TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP IN THE LOW LEVELS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG MAY BEGIN CLEARING OUT
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO TO END THE ADVISORY BEFORE 9AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE MIX ON WEDNESDAY AS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A GREAT SET UP FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD BUT SHALLOW AIR MASS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A BIT MORE
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THIS RUN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS. THE MAJOR
CONCERN HERE IS THAT IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE PRECIP
MOVES OUT...THERE COULD BE A WINDOW OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX
TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CERTAINLY THE BEST CHANCES OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER...
THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT AT THIS POINT TO INTRODUCE ABOUT 6 HOURS
OF A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM NEW ROADS TO KENTWOOD TO TYLERTOWN. WILL REFRAIN FROM
INCLUDING ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT IT IS STILL THREE DAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...ANYONE IN THESE AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES TO
EXPECTED IMPACTS.

THE FRONT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS FORWARD PUSH AS IT NEARS THE COAST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AGAIN AS THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOL/DRY AIR TO REINFORCE THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE EURO IS
FAR SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BRINGS THIS SURGE IN.
THUS...IT IS INDICATING A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
GFS...BUT DOES INDICATE SOME WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NOD TO
THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS
LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG SETTLE INTO THE AREA. VISIBILITY COULD
IMPROVE AS EARLY AS 12Z AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE
FOG...BUT LOW CEILINGS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER- FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-
WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE
ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  75  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
BTR  61  77  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
ASD  60  76  62  78 /  30  20  20  40
MSY  62  77  65  78 /  30  20  20  40
GPT  59  72  61  73 /  30  20  20  40
PQL  57  73  60  73 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
     ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 022136
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARMER AND MORE HUMID THAN NORMAL THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WARM/HUMID AIR IS
ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE. FOG NEVER COMPLETELY CLEARED FROM THE AREA TODAY AND EXPECT
THAT IT WILL BECOME DENSE IN AT LEAST PATCHES AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...SPREADING IN COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 9PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9AM TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN PICKING UP IN THE LOW LEVELS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG MAY BEGIN CLEARING OUT
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS
SCENARIO TO END THE ADVISORY BEFORE 9AM.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
IN THE MIX ON WEDNESDAY AS DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A GREAT SET UP FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
COLD BUT SHALLOW AIR MASS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY. THE 12Z GFS HAS
COME IN SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN WITH A BIT MORE
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE EURO ON THE OTHER HAND LOOKS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THIS RUN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS. THE MAJOR
CONCERN HERE IS THAT IF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE PRECIP
MOVES OUT...THERE COULD BE A WINDOW OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX
TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. CERTAINLY THE BEST CHANCES OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER...
THERE IS ENOUGH SUPPORT AT THIS POINT TO INTRODUCE ABOUT 6 HOURS
OF A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM NEW ROADS TO KENTWOOD TO TYLERTOWN. WILL REFRAIN FROM
INCLUDING ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT IT IS STILL THREE DAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...ANYONE IN THESE AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES TO
EXPECTED IMPACTS.

THE FRONT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS FORWARD PUSH AS IT NEARS THE COAST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AGAIN AS THE MODELS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOL/DRY AIR TO REINFORCE THE HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE EURO IS
FAR SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BRINGS THIS SURGE IN.
THUS...IT IS INDICATING A WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
GFS...BUT DOES INDICATE SOME WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NOD TO
THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS
LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG SETTLE INTO THE AREA. VISIBILITY COULD
IMPROVE AS EARLY AS 12Z AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX OUT THE
FOG...BUT LOW CEILINGS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER- FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-
WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE REMAINING OFFSHORE
ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
             DENSE FOG ADVISORIES.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  75  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
BTR  61  77  65  76 /  30  30  30  50
ASD  60  76  62  78 /  30  20  20  40
MSY  62  77  65  78 /  30  20  20  40
GPT  59  72  61  73 /  30  20  20  40
PQL  57  73  60  73 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON
     ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 021346
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
746 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING AS THE
PROFILE IS MOSTLY SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 530 MB. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS 1.88 INCHES... WHICH IS THE NEW RECORD FOR TODAY AS DEPICTED
IN THE SPC THREADED SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR LIX. THIS REPRESENTS
THE FOGGY CONDITIONS IN THE AREA AND OVERNIGHT DOWNPOURS WELL. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE BROUGHT IN GULF AIR AND THE MARITIME AIRMASS
WITH A 7 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION TO 015 FT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH A 90 KT PEAK WIND AT 170 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY
HAS PROVIDED A SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH BAROCLINIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WEST GULF WAS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD...ENRICHING THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN 1 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO FAR WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL ONGOING FROM ROUGHLY PEARL RIVER TO POINTE A LA
HACHE...MOVING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION MAY RESULT IN SOME SHORT-TERM ECHO TRAINING BEFORE
EASING AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. DEEP FETCHED MARITIME
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA FOG DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN DEFERENCE TO COLD MARINE AIR RETURN...BUT STILL ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK TO BRING A DRASTIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THAT FALL AROUND
40F BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE A SEVERAL POINTS OF STRONG
CONSIDERATION WITH THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL PATTERN MAINTAINS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE TIME WHILE THE DENSE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH
OTHER OMEGA FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL DURING
THE TEMPERATURE TRANSITION. PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE
MODEL DOMAINS HAVE STARTED OUT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAYS OUT ONLY TO
TREND WARMER CLOSER TO ACTUAL EVENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE NO
EXCEPTION. FINALLY...THICKNESSES NEVER FALL BELOW 552DM IN SW
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRECLUDE A WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL CONCEDE THAT THIS IS A CLOSE
CALL...BUT PAST TRENDS WORK IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF ON WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA BORDERS...THOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ARE PRUDENTLY TAKING THESE CONDITIONS JUST UP TO OUR JURISDICTION.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS THURSDAY. COLD AIR MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MECHANICAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF TO FOCUS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR
NEXT WEEKEND TIME FRAME. 24/RR

AVIATION...
CEILINGS RANGING AROUND 500 FEET WILL KEEP IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z...AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 00Z.  THE STRATUS DECK WILL
THEN START TO BUILD BACK DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AFTER 00Z...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND ONE MILE BY 03Z.  AS A
RESULT...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. 32

MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST TO MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER-
FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE
REMAINING OFFSHORE ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  60  74  65 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  72  61  76  65 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  72  61  75  63 /  50  30  20  20
MSY  70  62  75  65 /  50  30  20  20
GPT  69  59  72  62 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  66  58  73  62 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 021346
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
746 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING AS THE
PROFILE IS MOSTLY SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 530 MB. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS 1.88 INCHES... WHICH IS THE NEW RECORD FOR TODAY AS DEPICTED
IN THE SPC THREADED SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR LIX. THIS REPRESENTS
THE FOGGY CONDITIONS IN THE AREA AND OVERNIGHT DOWNPOURS WELL. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE BROUGHT IN GULF AIR AND THE MARITIME AIRMASS
WITH A 7 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION TO 015 FT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH A 90 KT PEAK WIND AT 170 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY
HAS PROVIDED A SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH BAROCLINIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WEST GULF WAS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD...ENRICHING THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN 1 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO FAR WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL ONGOING FROM ROUGHLY PEARL RIVER TO POINTE A LA
HACHE...MOVING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION MAY RESULT IN SOME SHORT-TERM ECHO TRAINING BEFORE
EASING AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. DEEP FETCHED MARITIME
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA FOG DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN DEFERENCE TO COLD MARINE AIR RETURN...BUT STILL ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK TO BRING A DRASTIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THAT FALL AROUND
40F BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE A SEVERAL POINTS OF STRONG
CONSIDERATION WITH THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL PATTERN MAINTAINS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE TIME WHILE THE DENSE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH
OTHER OMEGA FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL DURING
THE TEMPERATURE TRANSITION. PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE
MODEL DOMAINS HAVE STARTED OUT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAYS OUT ONLY TO
TREND WARMER CLOSER TO ACTUAL EVENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE NO
EXCEPTION. FINALLY...THICKNESSES NEVER FALL BELOW 552DM IN SW
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRECLUDE A WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL CONCEDE THAT THIS IS A CLOSE
CALL...BUT PAST TRENDS WORK IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF ON WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA BORDERS...THOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ARE PRUDENTLY TAKING THESE CONDITIONS JUST UP TO OUR JURISDICTION.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS THURSDAY. COLD AIR MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MECHANICAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF TO FOCUS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR
NEXT WEEKEND TIME FRAME. 24/RR

AVIATION...
CEILINGS RANGING AROUND 500 FEET WILL KEEP IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z...AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 00Z.  THE STRATUS DECK WILL
THEN START TO BUILD BACK DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AFTER 00Z...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND ONE MILE BY 03Z.  AS A
RESULT...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. 32

MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST TO MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER-
FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE
REMAINING OFFSHORE ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  60  74  65 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  72  61  76  65 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  72  61  75  63 /  50  30  20  20
MSY  70  62  75  65 /  50  30  20  20
GPT  69  59  72  62 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  66  58  73  62 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 021346
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
746 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING AS THE
PROFILE IS MOSTLY SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 530 MB. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS 1.88 INCHES... WHICH IS THE NEW RECORD FOR TODAY AS DEPICTED
IN THE SPC THREADED SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR LIX. THIS REPRESENTS
THE FOGGY CONDITIONS IN THE AREA AND OVERNIGHT DOWNPOURS WELL. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE BROUGHT IN GULF AIR AND THE MARITIME AIRMASS
WITH A 7 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION TO 015 FT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH A 90 KT PEAK WIND AT 170 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY
HAS PROVIDED A SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH BAROCLINIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WEST GULF WAS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD...ENRICHING THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN 1 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO FAR WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL ONGOING FROM ROUGHLY PEARL RIVER TO POINTE A LA
HACHE...MOVING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION MAY RESULT IN SOME SHORT-TERM ECHO TRAINING BEFORE
EASING AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. DEEP FETCHED MARITIME
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA FOG DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN DEFERENCE TO COLD MARINE AIR RETURN...BUT STILL ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK TO BRING A DRASTIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THAT FALL AROUND
40F BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE A SEVERAL POINTS OF STRONG
CONSIDERATION WITH THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL PATTERN MAINTAINS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE TIME WHILE THE DENSE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH
OTHER OMEGA FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL DURING
THE TEMPERATURE TRANSITION. PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE
MODEL DOMAINS HAVE STARTED OUT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAYS OUT ONLY TO
TREND WARMER CLOSER TO ACTUAL EVENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE NO
EXCEPTION. FINALLY...THICKNESSES NEVER FALL BELOW 552DM IN SW
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRECLUDE A WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL CONCEDE THAT THIS IS A CLOSE
CALL...BUT PAST TRENDS WORK IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF ON WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA BORDERS...THOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ARE PRUDENTLY TAKING THESE CONDITIONS JUST UP TO OUR JURISDICTION.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS THURSDAY. COLD AIR MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MECHANICAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF TO FOCUS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR
NEXT WEEKEND TIME FRAME. 24/RR

AVIATION...
CEILINGS RANGING AROUND 500 FEET WILL KEEP IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z...AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 00Z.  THE STRATUS DECK WILL
THEN START TO BUILD BACK DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AFTER 00Z...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND ONE MILE BY 03Z.  AS A
RESULT...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. 32

MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST TO MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER-
FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE
REMAINING OFFSHORE ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  60  74  65 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  72  61  76  65 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  72  61  75  63 /  50  30  20  20
MSY  70  62  75  65 /  50  30  20  20
GPT  69  59  72  62 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  66  58  73  62 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 021346
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
746 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING AS THE
PROFILE IS MOSTLY SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 530 MB. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS 1.88 INCHES... WHICH IS THE NEW RECORD FOR TODAY AS DEPICTED
IN THE SPC THREADED SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR LIX. THIS REPRESENTS
THE FOGGY CONDITIONS IN THE AREA AND OVERNIGHT DOWNPOURS WELL. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE BROUGHT IN GULF AIR AND THE MARITIME AIRMASS
WITH A 7 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION TO 015 FT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH A 90 KT PEAK WIND AT 170 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY
HAS PROVIDED A SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH BAROCLINIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WEST GULF WAS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD...ENRICHING THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN 1 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO FAR WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL ONGOING FROM ROUGHLY PEARL RIVER TO POINTE A LA
HACHE...MOVING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION MAY RESULT IN SOME SHORT-TERM ECHO TRAINING BEFORE
EASING AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. DEEP FETCHED MARITIME
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA FOG DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN DEFERENCE TO COLD MARINE AIR RETURN...BUT STILL ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK TO BRING A DRASTIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THAT FALL AROUND
40F BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE A SEVERAL POINTS OF STRONG
CONSIDERATION WITH THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL PATTERN MAINTAINS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE TIME WHILE THE DENSE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH
OTHER OMEGA FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL DURING
THE TEMPERATURE TRANSITION. PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE
MODEL DOMAINS HAVE STARTED OUT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAYS OUT ONLY TO
TREND WARMER CLOSER TO ACTUAL EVENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE NO
EXCEPTION. FINALLY...THICKNESSES NEVER FALL BELOW 552DM IN SW
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRECLUDE A WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL CONCEDE THAT THIS IS A CLOSE
CALL...BUT PAST TRENDS WORK IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF ON WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA BORDERS...THOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ARE PRUDENTLY TAKING THESE CONDITIONS JUST UP TO OUR JURISDICTION.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS THURSDAY. COLD AIR MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MECHANICAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF TO FOCUS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR
NEXT WEEKEND TIME FRAME. 24/RR

AVIATION...
CEILINGS RANGING AROUND 500 FEET WILL KEEP IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z...AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 00Z.  THE STRATUS DECK WILL
THEN START TO BUILD BACK DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AFTER 00Z...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND ONE MILE BY 03Z.  AS A
RESULT...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. 32

MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST TO MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER-
FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE
REMAINING OFFSHORE ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  60  74  65 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  72  61  76  65 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  72  61  75  63 /  50  30  20  20
MSY  70  62  75  65 /  50  30  20  20
GPT  69  59  72  62 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  66  58  73  62 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 021017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY
HAS PROVIDED A SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH BAROCLINIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WEST GULF WAS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD...ENRICHING THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN 1 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO FAR WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL ONGOING FROM ROUGHLY PEARL RIVER TO POINTE A LA
HACHE...MOVING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION MAY RESULT IN SOME SHORT-TERM ECHO TRAINING BEFORE
EASING AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. DEEP FETCHED MARITIME
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA FOG DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN DEFERENCE TO COLD MARINE AIR RETURN...BUT STILL ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK TO BRING A DRASTIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THAT FALL AROUND
40F BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE A SEVERAL POINTS OF STRONG
CONSIDERATION WITH THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL PATTERN MAINTAINS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE TIME WHILE THE DENSE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH
OTHER OMEGA FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL DURING
THE TEMPERATURE TRANSITION. PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE
MODEL DOMAINS HAVE STARTED OUT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAYS OUT ONLY TO
TREND WARMER CLOSER TO ACTUAL EVENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE NO
EXCEPTION. FINALLY...THICKNESSES NEVER FALL BELOW 552DM IN SW
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRECLUDE A WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL CONCEDE THAT THIS IS A CLOSE
CALL...BUT PAST TRENDS WORK IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF ON WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA BORDERS...THOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ARE PRUDENTLY TAKING THESE CONDITIONS JUST UP TO OUR JURISDICTION.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS THURSDAY. COLD AIR MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MECHANICAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF TO FOCUS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR
NEXT WEEKEND TIME FRAME. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS RANGING AROUND 500 FEET WILL KEEP IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z...AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 00Z.  THE STRATUS DECK WILL
THEN START TO BUILD BACK DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AFTER 00Z...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND ONE MILE BY 03Z.  AS A
RESULT...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. 32

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST TO MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER-
FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE
REMAINING OFFSHORE ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  60  74  65 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  72  61  76  65 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  72  61  75  63 /  50  30  20  20
MSY  70  62  75  65 /  50  30  20  20
GPT  69  59  72  62 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  66  58  73  62 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

24/RR
32








000
FXUS64 KLIX 021017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY
HAS PROVIDED A SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH BAROCLINIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WEST GULF WAS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD...ENRICHING THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN 1 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO FAR WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL ONGOING FROM ROUGHLY PEARL RIVER TO POINTE A LA
HACHE...MOVING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION MAY RESULT IN SOME SHORT-TERM ECHO TRAINING BEFORE
EASING AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. DEEP FETCHED MARITIME
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA FOG DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN DEFERENCE TO COLD MARINE AIR RETURN...BUT STILL ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK TO BRING A DRASTIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THAT FALL AROUND
40F BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE A SEVERAL POINTS OF STRONG
CONSIDERATION WITH THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL PATTERN MAINTAINS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE TIME WHILE THE DENSE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH
OTHER OMEGA FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL DURING
THE TEMPERATURE TRANSITION. PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE
MODEL DOMAINS HAVE STARTED OUT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAYS OUT ONLY TO
TREND WARMER CLOSER TO ACTUAL EVENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE NO
EXCEPTION. FINALLY...THICKNESSES NEVER FALL BELOW 552DM IN SW
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRECLUDE A WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL CONCEDE THAT THIS IS A CLOSE
CALL...BUT PAST TRENDS WORK IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF ON WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA BORDERS...THOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ARE PRUDENTLY TAKING THESE CONDITIONS JUST UP TO OUR JURISDICTION.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS THURSDAY. COLD AIR MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MECHANICAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF TO FOCUS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR
NEXT WEEKEND TIME FRAME. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS RANGING AROUND 500 FEET WILL KEEP IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z...AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 00Z.  THE STRATUS DECK WILL
THEN START TO BUILD BACK DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AFTER 00Z...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND ONE MILE BY 03Z.  AS A
RESULT...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. 32

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST TO MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER-
FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE
REMAINING OFFSHORE ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  60  74  65 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  72  61  76  65 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  72  61  75  63 /  50  30  20  20
MSY  70  62  75  65 /  50  30  20  20
GPT  69  59  72  62 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  66  58  73  62 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

24/RR
32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 021017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY
HAS PROVIDED A SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH BAROCLINIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WEST GULF WAS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD...ENRICHING THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN 1 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO FAR WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL ONGOING FROM ROUGHLY PEARL RIVER TO POINTE A LA
HACHE...MOVING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION MAY RESULT IN SOME SHORT-TERM ECHO TRAINING BEFORE
EASING AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. DEEP FETCHED MARITIME
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA FOG DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN DEFERENCE TO COLD MARINE AIR RETURN...BUT STILL ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK TO BRING A DRASTIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THAT FALL AROUND
40F BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE A SEVERAL POINTS OF STRONG
CONSIDERATION WITH THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL PATTERN MAINTAINS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE TIME WHILE THE DENSE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH
OTHER OMEGA FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL DURING
THE TEMPERATURE TRANSITION. PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE
MODEL DOMAINS HAVE STARTED OUT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAYS OUT ONLY TO
TREND WARMER CLOSER TO ACTUAL EVENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE NO
EXCEPTION. FINALLY...THICKNESSES NEVER FALL BELOW 552DM IN SW
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRECLUDE A WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL CONCEDE THAT THIS IS A CLOSE
CALL...BUT PAST TRENDS WORK IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF ON WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA BORDERS...THOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ARE PRUDENTLY TAKING THESE CONDITIONS JUST UP TO OUR JURISDICTION.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS THURSDAY. COLD AIR MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MECHANICAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF TO FOCUS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR
NEXT WEEKEND TIME FRAME. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS RANGING AROUND 500 FEET WILL KEEP IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z...AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 00Z.  THE STRATUS DECK WILL
THEN START TO BUILD BACK DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AFTER 00Z...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND ONE MILE BY 03Z.  AS A
RESULT...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. 32

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST TO MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER-
FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE
REMAINING OFFSHORE ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  60  74  65 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  72  61  76  65 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  72  61  75  63 /  50  30  20  20
MSY  70  62  75  65 /  50  30  20  20
GPT  69  59  72  62 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  66  58  73  62 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

24/RR
32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 021017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY
HAS PROVIDED A SYNOPTIC SCALE FOCUS FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH BAROCLINIC WARM FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WEST GULF WAS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD...ENRICHING THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN 1 TO 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO FAR WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL ONGOING FROM ROUGHLY PEARL RIVER TO POINTE A LA
HACHE...MOVING INTO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION MAY RESULT IN SOME SHORT-TERM ECHO TRAINING BEFORE
EASING AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE
THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. DEEP FETCHED MARITIME
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH
DAY...ALONG WITH SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR SEA FOG DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN DEFERENCE TO COLD MARINE AIR RETURN...BUT STILL ON
THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THINGS GET REALLY INTERESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES OVER ESTABLISHED SNOW PACK TO BRING A DRASTIC DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WITH ITS PASSAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THAT FALL AROUND
40F BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE A SEVERAL POINTS OF STRONG
CONSIDERATION WITH THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL PATTERN MAINTAINS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE TIME WHILE THE DENSE COLD AIR
UNDERCUTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH
OTHER OMEGA FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RAINFALL DURING
THE TEMPERATURE TRANSITION. PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR SITUATIONS IN THE
MODEL DOMAINS HAVE STARTED OUT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD DAYS OUT ONLY TO
TREND WARMER CLOSER TO ACTUAL EVENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE NO
EXCEPTION. FINALLY...THICKNESSES NEVER FALL BELOW 552DM IN SW
MISSISSIPPI...WHICH SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRECLUDE A WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION THIS FAR SOUTH. WILL CONCEDE THAT THIS IS A CLOSE
CALL...BUT PAST TRENDS WORK IN FAVOR OF HOLDING OFF ON WINTER
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE CWA BORDERS...THOUGH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
ARE PRUDENTLY TAKING THESE CONDITIONS JUST UP TO OUR JURISDICTION.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER PRECIPITATION
ENDS THURSDAY. COLD AIR MODERATES RATHER QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MECHANICAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF TO FOCUS MOISTURE RETURN ALONG
THE NORTH GULF NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ECMWF FOR
NEXT WEEKEND TIME FRAME. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS RANGING AROUND 500 FEET WILL KEEP IFR RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET AFTER
15Z...AND REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 00Z.  THE STRATUS DECK WILL
THEN START TO BUILD BACK DOWN TO AROUND 500 FEET AFTER 00Z...AND
VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND ONE MILE BY 03Z.  AS A
RESULT...PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW. 32

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH WARM FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST TO MOVE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES DEEPER AND LONGER-
FETCHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO DEVELOP A DECENT GROUND SWELL IN THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GALES OR AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WHILE
REMAINING OFFSHORE ORIENTED NEXT WEEKEND. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  60  74  65 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  72  61  76  65 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  72  61  75  63 /  50  30  20  20
MSY  70  62  75  65 /  50  30  20  20
GPT  69  59  72  62 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  66  58  73  62 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

24/RR
32








000
FXUS64 KLIX 020554
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AREA OF RAIN PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH 10Z. WITH THE WARM FRONT
SOUTHWEST...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED WITH LOW CLOUDS
CEILINGS BETWEEN 200 AND 600 FEET THROUGH MONDAY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY HOURS. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 020554
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AREA OF RAIN PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH 10Z. WITH THE WARM FRONT
SOUTHWEST...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED WITH LOW CLOUDS
CEILINGS BETWEEN 200 AND 600 FEET THROUGH MONDAY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY HOURS. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 020200
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
RADAR COVERAGE REMAINS NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST
ZONES OVER BTR AND MCB THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT THIS ONGOING TREND. WHILE SOUNDING SHOWED NO
CAPE VALUES...THUNDER WAS PRESENT AT BTR AND OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING...WILL INSERT TS FOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR AREA OF RAIN TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PARISHES. WILL MAINTAIN FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PASCAGOULA. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT ABOUT 108K FEET OR
ABOUT 20.5 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

SOUNDING CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS NOW UP TO 1.56 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. MUCH OF THE SOUNDING BETWEEN 950 AND 730 MB IS ABOUT 5C
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP
THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...AND GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY
BY ABOUT FL130. WIND MAX OF 104 KNOTS AT ABOUT 43K FEET. FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 12.5K FEET AND -20C LEVEL AT ABOUT 24.5K FEET. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  60  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  60  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 020200
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
800 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
RADAR COVERAGE REMAINS NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST
ZONES OVER BTR AND MCB THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT THIS ONGOING TREND. WHILE SOUNDING SHOWED NO
CAPE VALUES...THUNDER WAS PRESENT AT BTR AND OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING...WILL INSERT TS FOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING FOR AREA OF RAIN TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PARISHES. WILL MAINTAIN FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PASCAGOULA. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT ABOUT 108K FEET OR
ABOUT 20.5 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

SOUNDING CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS NOW UP TO 1.56 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. MUCH OF THE SOUNDING BETWEEN 950 AND 730 MB IS ABOUT 5C
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP
THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...AND GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY
BY ABOUT FL130. WIND MAX OF 104 KNOTS AT ABOUT 43K FEET. FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 12.5K FEET AND -20C LEVEL AT ABOUT 24.5K FEET. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  60  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  60  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 020049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
649 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PASCAGOULA. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT ABOUT 108K FEET OR
ABOUT 20.5 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

SOUNDING CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS NOW UP TO 1.56 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. MUCH OF THE SOUNDING BETWEEN 950 AND 730 MB IS ABOUT 5C
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP
THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...AND GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY
BY ABOUT FL130. WIND MAX OF 104 KNOTS AT ABOUT 43K FEET. FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 12.5K FEET AND -20C LEVEL AT ABOUT 24.5K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  40  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  30  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 020049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
649 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PASCAGOULA. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT ABOUT 108K FEET OR
ABOUT 20.5 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

SOUNDING CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS NOW UP TO 1.56 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. MUCH OF THE SOUNDING BETWEEN 950 AND 730 MB IS ABOUT 5C
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP
THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...AND GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY
BY ABOUT FL130. WIND MAX OF 104 KNOTS AT ABOUT 43K FEET. FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 12.5K FEET AND -20C LEVEL AT ABOUT 24.5K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  40  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  30  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 020049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
649 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PASCAGOULA. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT ABOUT 108K FEET OR
ABOUT 20.5 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

SOUNDING CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS NOW UP TO 1.56 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. MUCH OF THE SOUNDING BETWEEN 950 AND 730 MB IS ABOUT 5C
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP
THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...AND GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY
BY ABOUT FL130. WIND MAX OF 104 KNOTS AT ABOUT 43K FEET. FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 12.5K FEET AND -20C LEVEL AT ABOUT 24.5K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  40  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  30  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 020049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
649 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PASCAGOULA. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT ABOUT 108K FEET OR
ABOUT 20.5 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

SOUNDING CONTINUES TO WARM AND MOISTEN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS NOW UP TO 1.56 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 175 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. MUCH OF THE SOUNDING BETWEEN 950 AND 730 MB IS ABOUT 5C
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MARINE LAYER IS ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP
THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...AND GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY
BY ABOUT FL130. WIND MAX OF 104 KNOTS AT ABOUT 43K FEET. FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 12.5K FEET AND -20C LEVEL AT ABOUT 24.5K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  40  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  30  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 012100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARRIBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  40  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  30  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 012100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARRIBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  40  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  30  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 012100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARRIBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  40  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  30  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 012100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT...TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
BUT THATS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES END. 30 TO 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED BY 60 DEGREE TD/S AS GULF MOISTURE HAS SURGED INTO THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES HAVE GIVEN WAY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH
ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS
ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE AREA BEING IN A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARRIBEAN AND A TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN THIS REGION
OF THE GULF SOUTH HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF INCREASE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXISTS FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE TO LAKE
CHARLES TO SHREVEPORT AND THEN OVER TO JACKSON. PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SW OF THERE STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS BUT MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THINKING
THAT COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE SOME. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM WEATHER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FOG...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE WATER TEMPS. THIS IS A PRIME SITUATION FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP.
SO WILL BE GOING OUT WITH A MARINE FOG ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. DEFINITELY WILL BE MONITORED FOR THIS TO BE CARRIED
FURTHER INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING HIGHER POPS IN NW AND LOWER ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY AS SFC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH DISSIPATES AND RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE/EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT TO REACH
INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY...HAVE KEPT POPS TO A
MINIMUM AS A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BUT DONT FORESEE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT W/O A DEFINED FOCUS. THIS IS NOT THE CASE PROGRESSING
WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL RACE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH MOST PRECIP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP ABOUT 6 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE
FCST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WHICH DOES HAVE RAIN COMING IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...THE FCST POPS FOR WED WILL
BE WAY TOO HIGH. THIS TIMING ALSO PLAYS INTO THE BACKSIDE FREEZING
PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE GFS STILL SHOWS COLD AIR MOVING IN PLENTY FAST
ENOUGH WITH PRECIP STILL OVERHEAD FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP AS
FAR SOUTH AS MCB AND BTR. THE ECMWF OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT WITH IS
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. STILL HOLDING OFF ON
THE MENTION OF FRZL IN THE ZONES DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY FOR TILL SUNDAY WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PULLS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MOISTURE
DOESN/T QUITE GO AWAY AFTER THE LATEST FRONT AND BACKTRACKS OVER THE
CWA FRIDAY BEFORE THE SOUTHERN TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MADE
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST B/C OF THE DISAGREEMENT.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AND VLIFR CATEGORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 11

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF WORK WEEK. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION AND
PRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  68  60  74 /  40  50  20  20
BTR  59  72  62  78 /  30  50  20  20
ASD  58  72  61  75 /  30  30  20  20
MSY  60  73  62  77 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  58  69  59  71 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  55  72  58  73 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
     AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 011759
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1159 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT FOG
WAS ALSO BEING OBSERVED. IFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LOW
CEILINGS. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WHICH LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER
06Z. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  57  67  60 /  40  40  50  20
BTR  69  59  71  62 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  66  57  70  61 /  30  30  30  20
MSY  68  59  72  62 /  40  20  30  20
GPT  64  57  68  59 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  66  56  69  59 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 011759
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1159 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD MAINLY LIGHT FOG
WAS ALSO BEING OBSERVED. IFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LOW
CEILINGS. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WHICH LIKELY RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AFTER
06Z. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  57  67  60 /  40  40  50  20
BTR  69  59  71  62 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  66  57  70  61 /  30  30  30  20
MSY  68  59  72  62 /  40  20  30  20
GPT  64  57  68  59 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  66  56  69  59 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 011327
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
727 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM 12
AND 24 HOURS AGO... PW IS 1.16 INCHES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. THIS IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE SFC AND RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO THE TOP OF THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT
900 MB. WINDS VEER FROM THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE THE
INVERSION. PEAK WIND IS 105 KTS AT 180 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH
IT. WE WERE FINALLY ABLE TO GET AT LEAST A SAMPLE OF THE JET
ENERGY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ISSUE. LOOKING AT RAOBS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 30H JET WAS MOVING
ONSHORE AT 00Z SUN...SUPPORTED THE INITIALIZATION OF THE EURO THE
BEST. THE GFS WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH. TIMING IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AS THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE NE RATHER
QUICKLY LEAVING THE SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THE COUPLING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTPAC AND STAY ORIENTED OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE LAYER LIFTING OVER THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING
A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR. THE
FIRST POSSIBILITY OF ANY WINTER WX WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THU
MORNING. ATTM THIS AREA LOOKS TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN ANY ONE VARIABLE
TO BRING THIS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTER WX WILL BE
FRI MORNING AS A SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH THE COUPLED JET CREATING
SOMEWHAT BETTER LIFT FROM SE TX THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING WILL HAVE TO ALL FALL IN LINE PERFECTLY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO MORE MODEL RUNS WITH
A GOOD SAMPLE FROM RAOBS TO INITIALIZE WELL BEFORE CALLING FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE WILL UNLTIMATELY MOVE HIGHER
WITH SUCESSIVE WELL SAMPLED RUNS.

AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND FOG PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...A FEW TS COULD MOVE VERY CLOSE TO TERMINALS. EASTERN
TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY. FOG CONDITIONS WILL
HAMPER TRANSIT THROUGH THE MISS RIVER AS WELL AS OTHER MAIN
CANALS AND STRUCTURES. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND SHOULD END ONCE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY AS WIND SPEEDS MY BE VERY
CLOSE TO GALES...ESPECIALLY ON PLATFORMS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  57  67  60 /  40  40  50  30
BTR  69  59  71  62 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  66  57  70  61 /  30  30  30  20
MSY  68  59  72  62 /  40  30  30  20
GPT  64  57  68  59 /  30  30  30  20
PQL  66  56  69  59 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 011327
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
727 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM 12
AND 24 HOURS AGO... PW IS 1.16 INCHES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. THIS IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE SFC AND RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO THE TOP OF THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT
900 MB. WINDS VEER FROM THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE THE
INVERSION. PEAK WIND IS 105 KTS AT 180 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH
IT. WE WERE FINALLY ABLE TO GET AT LEAST A SAMPLE OF THE JET
ENERGY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ISSUE. LOOKING AT RAOBS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 30H JET WAS MOVING
ONSHORE AT 00Z SUN...SUPPORTED THE INITIALIZATION OF THE EURO THE
BEST. THE GFS WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH. TIMING IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AS THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE NE RATHER
QUICKLY LEAVING THE SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THE COUPLING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTPAC AND STAY ORIENTED OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE LAYER LIFTING OVER THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING
A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR. THE
FIRST POSSIBILITY OF ANY WINTER WX WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THU
MORNING. ATTM THIS AREA LOOKS TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN ANY ONE VARIABLE
TO BRING THIS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTER WX WILL BE
FRI MORNING AS A SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH THE COUPLED JET CREATING
SOMEWHAT BETTER LIFT FROM SE TX THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING WILL HAVE TO ALL FALL IN LINE PERFECTLY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO MORE MODEL RUNS WITH
A GOOD SAMPLE FROM RAOBS TO INITIALIZE WELL BEFORE CALLING FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE WILL UNLTIMATELY MOVE HIGHER
WITH SUCESSIVE WELL SAMPLED RUNS.

AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND FOG PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...A FEW TS COULD MOVE VERY CLOSE TO TERMINALS. EASTERN
TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY. FOG CONDITIONS WILL
HAMPER TRANSIT THROUGH THE MISS RIVER AS WELL AS OTHER MAIN
CANALS AND STRUCTURES. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND SHOULD END ONCE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY AS WIND SPEEDS MY BE VERY
CLOSE TO GALES...ESPECIALLY ON PLATFORMS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  57  67  60 /  40  40  50  30
BTR  69  59  71  62 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  66  57  70  61 /  30  30  30  20
MSY  68  59  72  62 /  40  30  30  20
GPT  64  57  68  59 /  30  30  30  20
PQL  66  56  69  59 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 011327
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
727 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM 12
AND 24 HOURS AGO... PW IS 1.16 INCHES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. THIS IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE SFC AND RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO THE TOP OF THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT
900 MB. WINDS VEER FROM THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE THE
INVERSION. PEAK WIND IS 105 KTS AT 180 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH
IT. WE WERE FINALLY ABLE TO GET AT LEAST A SAMPLE OF THE JET
ENERGY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ISSUE. LOOKING AT RAOBS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 30H JET WAS MOVING
ONSHORE AT 00Z SUN...SUPPORTED THE INITIALIZATION OF THE EURO THE
BEST. THE GFS WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH. TIMING IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AS THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE NE RATHER
QUICKLY LEAVING THE SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THE COUPLING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTPAC AND STAY ORIENTED OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE LAYER LIFTING OVER THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING
A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR. THE
FIRST POSSIBILITY OF ANY WINTER WX WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THU
MORNING. ATTM THIS AREA LOOKS TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN ANY ONE VARIABLE
TO BRING THIS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTER WX WILL BE
FRI MORNING AS A SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH THE COUPLED JET CREATING
SOMEWHAT BETTER LIFT FROM SE TX THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING WILL HAVE TO ALL FALL IN LINE PERFECTLY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO MORE MODEL RUNS WITH
A GOOD SAMPLE FROM RAOBS TO INITIALIZE WELL BEFORE CALLING FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE WILL UNLTIMATELY MOVE HIGHER
WITH SUCESSIVE WELL SAMPLED RUNS.

AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND FOG PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...A FEW TS COULD MOVE VERY CLOSE TO TERMINALS. EASTERN
TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY. FOG CONDITIONS WILL
HAMPER TRANSIT THROUGH THE MISS RIVER AS WELL AS OTHER MAIN
CANALS AND STRUCTURES. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND SHOULD END ONCE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY AS WIND SPEEDS MY BE VERY
CLOSE TO GALES...ESPECIALLY ON PLATFORMS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  57  67  60 /  40  40  50  30
BTR  69  59  71  62 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  66  57  70  61 /  30  30  30  20
MSY  68  59  72  62 /  40  30  30  20
GPT  64  57  68  59 /  30  30  30  20
PQL  66  56  69  59 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 011327
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
727 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM 12
AND 24 HOURS AGO... PW IS 1.16 INCHES. THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. THIS IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE SFC AND RETURN OF THE MARINE LAYER. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO THE TOP OF THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT
900 MB. WINDS VEER FROM THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE THE
INVERSION. PEAK WIND IS 105 KTS AT 180 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH
IT. WE WERE FINALLY ABLE TO GET AT LEAST A SAMPLE OF THE JET
ENERGY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ISSUE. LOOKING AT RAOBS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 30H JET WAS MOVING
ONSHORE AT 00Z SUN...SUPPORTED THE INITIALIZATION OF THE EURO THE
BEST. THE GFS WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH. TIMING IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AS THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE NE RATHER
QUICKLY LEAVING THE SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THE COUPLING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTPAC AND STAY ORIENTED OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE LAYER LIFTING OVER THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING
A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR. THE
FIRST POSSIBILITY OF ANY WINTER WX WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THU
MORNING. ATTM THIS AREA LOOKS TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN ANY ONE VARIABLE
TO BRING THIS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTER WX WILL BE
FRI MORNING AS A SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH THE COUPLED JET CREATING
SOMEWHAT BETTER LIFT FROM SE TX THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING WILL HAVE TO ALL FALL IN LINE PERFECTLY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO MORE MODEL RUNS WITH
A GOOD SAMPLE FROM RAOBS TO INITIALIZE WELL BEFORE CALLING FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE WILL UNLTIMATELY MOVE HIGHER
WITH SUCESSIVE WELL SAMPLED RUNS.

AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND FOG PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...A FEW TS COULD MOVE VERY CLOSE TO TERMINALS. EASTERN
TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY. FOG CONDITIONS WILL
HAMPER TRANSIT THROUGH THE MISS RIVER AS WELL AS OTHER MAIN
CANALS AND STRUCTURES. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND SHOULD END ONCE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY AS WIND SPEEDS MY BE VERY
CLOSE TO GALES...ESPECIALLY ON PLATFORMS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  57  67  60 /  40  40  50  30
BTR  69  59  71  62 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  66  57  70  61 /  30  30  30  20
MSY  68  59  72  62 /  40  30  30  20
GPT  64  57  68  59 /  30  30  30  20
PQL  66  56  69  59 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 011053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
453 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

QUITE A DYNAMIC FORECAST TO COME. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WE WILL SEE
THE VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL MISS RIVER VALLEY MOVE
TO EXTREME SW MISSISSIPPI BEFORE QUICKLY RETURNING NORTHWEST TO
BECOME ENVELOPED WITH THE NEXT STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT. FOG
IS NOT WIDESPREAD OR DENSE THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NEAR SOME COOLER WATER BODIES COULD SEE VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
MISS RIVER. DEW PT TEMPS MOVING ASHORE ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES.
WATER TEMPS CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE ONLY FOUND IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING AS TEMPS FROM BATON ROUGE TO THE
HEAD OF PASSES IS RUNNING AROUND THE MID 40S GIVING A 15 DEGREE
SPLIT. LAKE TEMPS ARE RUNNING AROUND 55 DEGREES GIVING ONLY A 5
DEGREE SPLIT. NEAR SHORE WATERS ARE RUNNING AROUND 60 GIVING A
ZERO SPLIT. ALTHOUGH IF CEILINGS MANAGE TO DEVELOP
DOWNWARD...THESE TEMPS WOULD NOT DEVELOP FOG BUT WOULD SUPPORT FOG
THAT FORMS FROM ANOTHER MEDIUM. MOISTURE LOADING AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SH/TS WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST UNSTABLE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD SEE ONLY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

EACH SUCESSIVE NIGHT MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG AS DP TEMPS OF 65
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING. THAT NUMBER GOES TO
NEAR 70 BY WED MORNING. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD BE FOUND OVER AS
WELL AS ALONG AND OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF WATER BODIES...ESPECIALLY
THE COOLEST WATER.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH
IT. WE WERE FINALLY ABLE TO GET AT LEAST A SAMPLE OF THE JET
ENERGY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ISSUE. LOOKING AT RAOBS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 30H JET WAS MOVING
ONSHORE AT 00Z SUN...SUPPORTED THE INITIALIZATION OF THE EURO THE
BEST. THE GFS WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH. TIMING IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AS THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE NE RATHER
QUICKLY LEAVING THE SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THE COUPLING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTPAC AND STAY ORIENTED OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE LAYER LIFTING OVER THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING
A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR. THE
FIRST POSSIBILITY OF ANY WINTER WX WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THU
MORNING. ATTM THIS AREA LOOKS TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN ANY ONE VARIABLE
TO BRING THIS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTER WX WILL BE
FRI MORNING AS A SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH THE COUPLED JET CREATING
SOMEWHAT BETTER LIFT FROM SE TX THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING WILL HAVE TO ALL FALL IN LINE PERFECTLY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO MORE MODEL RUNS WITH
A GOOD SAMPLE FROM RAOBS TO INITIALIZE WELL BEFORE CALLING FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE WILL UNLTIMATELY MOVE HIGHER
WITH SUCESSIVE WELL SAMPLED RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND FOG PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...A FEW TS COULD MOVE VERY CLOSE TO TERMINALS. EASTERN
TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY. FOG CONDITIONS WILL
HAMPER TRANSIT THROUGH THE MISS RIVER AS WELL AS OTHER MAIN
CANALS AND STRUCTURES. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND SHOULD END ONCE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY AS WIND SPEEDS MY BE VERY
CLOSE TO GALES...ESPECIALLY ON PLATFORMS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  57  67  60 /  40  40  50  30
BTR  69  59  71  62 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  66  57  70  61 /  30  30  30  20
MSY  68  59  72  62 /  40  30  30  20
GPT  64  57  68  59 /  30  30  30  20
PQL  66  56  69  59 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 011053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
453 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

QUITE A DYNAMIC FORECAST TO COME. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WE WILL SEE
THE VERY WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL MISS RIVER VALLEY MOVE
TO EXTREME SW MISSISSIPPI BEFORE QUICKLY RETURNING NORTHWEST TO
BECOME ENVELOPED WITH THE NEXT STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT. FOG
IS NOT WIDESPREAD OR DENSE THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NEAR SOME COOLER WATER BODIES COULD SEE VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
MISS RIVER. DEW PT TEMPS MOVING ASHORE ARE AROUND 60 DEGREES.
WATER TEMPS CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE ONLY FOUND IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING AS TEMPS FROM BATON ROUGE TO THE
HEAD OF PASSES IS RUNNING AROUND THE MID 40S GIVING A 15 DEGREE
SPLIT. LAKE TEMPS ARE RUNNING AROUND 55 DEGREES GIVING ONLY A 5
DEGREE SPLIT. NEAR SHORE WATERS ARE RUNNING AROUND 60 GIVING A
ZERO SPLIT. ALTHOUGH IF CEILINGS MANAGE TO DEVELOP
DOWNWARD...THESE TEMPS WOULD NOT DEVELOP FOG BUT WOULD SUPPORT FOG
THAT FORMS FROM ANOTHER MEDIUM. MOISTURE LOADING AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SH/TS WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST UNSTABLE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD SEE ONLY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

EACH SUCESSIVE NIGHT MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG AS DP TEMPS OF 65
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND MONDAY MORNING. THAT NUMBER GOES TO
NEAR 70 BY WED MORNING. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD BE FOUND OVER AS
WELL AS ALONG AND OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF WATER BODIES...ESPECIALLY
THE COOLEST WATER.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE BRINGING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER WITH
IT. WE WERE FINALLY ABLE TO GET AT LEAST A SAMPLE OF THE JET
ENERGY THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ISSUE. LOOKING AT RAOBS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE 30H JET WAS MOVING
ONSHORE AT 00Z SUN...SUPPORTED THE INITIALIZATION OF THE EURO THE
BEST. THE GFS WAS NOT FAR BEHIND THOUGH. TIMING IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AS THE EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS THE MAIN FORCING WILL MOVE INTO THE NE RATHER
QUICKLY LEAVING THE SHALLOW VERY COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE GULF.
THE COUPLING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
EASTPAC AND STAY ORIENTED OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP
CAUSE LAYER LIFTING OVER THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT BRINGING
A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD DOME OF AIR. THE
FIRST POSSIBILITY OF ANY WINTER WX WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT THU
MORNING. ATTM THIS AREA LOOKS TO STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN ANY ONE VARIABLE
TO BRING THIS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTER WX WILL BE
FRI MORNING AS A SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH THE COUPLED JET CREATING
SOMEWHAT BETTER LIFT FROM SE TX THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA. TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING WILL HAVE TO ALL FALL IN LINE PERFECTLY FOR THIS TO
OCCUR. WOULD LIKE TO SEE AT LEAST ONE TO TWO MORE MODEL RUNS WITH
A GOOD SAMPLE FROM RAOBS TO INITIALIZE WELL BEFORE CALLING FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE WILL UNLTIMATELY MOVE HIGHER
WITH SUCESSIVE WELL SAMPLED RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AND FOG PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE WESTERN
TERMINALS...A FEW TS COULD MOVE VERY CLOSE TO TERMINALS. EASTERN
TERMINALS SHOULD ONLY SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT CAUTION STATEMENTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY TODAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH TODAY. FOG CONDITIONS WILL
HAMPER TRANSIT THROUGH THE MISS RIVER AS WELL AS OTHER MAIN
CANALS AND STRUCTURES. FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM OVER NEAR SHORE
WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND SHOULD END ONCE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS WINDS AND SEAS BACK UP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY
NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY AS WIND SPEEDS MY BE VERY
CLOSE TO GALES...ESPECIALLY ON PLATFORMS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  57  67  60 /  40  40  50  30
BTR  69  59  71  62 /  40  30  50  20
ASD  66  57  70  61 /  30  30  30  20
MSY  68  59  72  62 /  40  30  30  20
GPT  64  57  68  59 /  30  30  30  20
PQL  66  56  69  59 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 010554
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EAST FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL BRING MID 50S DEWPOINT
AIR OVER LOWER 50S COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...A LOW STRATUS
DECT WILL SPREAD OVER THE NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS MAY TRY TO ASCEND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
HEATING BUT ONLY UP TO 1.5 TO 2KFT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT LIFT AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WESTERN TAF SITES
AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT KHUM...TEMPO AT
KMSY...KBTR...KNEW AND KBTR. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010554
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EAST FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL BRING MID 50S DEWPOINT
AIR OVER LOWER 50S COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...A LOW STRATUS
DECT WILL SPREAD OVER THE NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS MAY TRY TO ASCEND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
HEATING BUT ONLY UP TO 1.5 TO 2KFT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT LIFT AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WESTERN TAF SITES
AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT KHUM...TEMPO AT
KMSY...KBTR...KNEW AND KBTR. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 010554
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EAST FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL BRING MID 50S DEWPOINT
AIR OVER LOWER 50S COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...A LOW STRATUS
DECT WILL SPREAD OVER THE NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS MAY TRY TO ASCEND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
HEATING BUT ONLY UP TO 1.5 TO 2KFT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT LIFT AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WESTERN TAF SITES
AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT KHUM...TEMPO AT
KMSY...KBTR...KNEW AND KBTR. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010554
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
EAST FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING RIDGE WILL BRING MID 50S DEWPOINT
AIR OVER LOWER 50S COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...A LOW STRATUS
DECT WILL SPREAD OVER THE NEAR COASTAL TAF SITES WITH IFR CEILINGS
THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS MAY TRY TO ASCEND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
HEATING BUT ONLY UP TO 1.5 TO 2KFT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT LIFT AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER WESTERN TAF SITES
AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT KHUM...TEMPO AT
KMSY...KBTR...KNEW AND KBTR. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 010103
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
703 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN
MOSS POINT AND INTERSTATE 10. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT AN ALTITUDE OF
100.6K FEET OR 19.1 MILES.

SOUNDING HAS MOISTENED UP A LITTLE BIT...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.72 INCHES. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION JUST
BELOW 700 MB...WHICH WAS BEING REFLECTED BY AN INCREASE IN
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AT FL095 AT LAUNCH TIME. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BELOW 850 MB...AND WEST ABOVE THAT LEVEL THROUGH
100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 127 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST AT 38.5K FEET.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 13.2K FEET...WITH -20C LEVEL AT 23K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE ALL THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. 11

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS MINUS THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BE MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  40  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  20  30  30
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010103
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
703 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN
MOSS POINT AND INTERSTATE 10. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT AN ALTITUDE OF
100.6K FEET OR 19.1 MILES.

SOUNDING HAS MOISTENED UP A LITTLE BIT...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.72 INCHES. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION JUST
BELOW 700 MB...WHICH WAS BEING REFLECTED BY AN INCREASE IN
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AT FL095 AT LAUNCH TIME. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BELOW 850 MB...AND WEST ABOVE THAT LEVEL THROUGH
100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 127 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST AT 38.5K FEET.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 13.2K FEET...WITH -20C LEVEL AT 23K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE ALL THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. 11

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS MINUS THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BE MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  40  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  20  30  30
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010103
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
703 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN
MOSS POINT AND INTERSTATE 10. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT AN ALTITUDE OF
100.6K FEET OR 19.1 MILES.

SOUNDING HAS MOISTENED UP A LITTLE BIT...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.72 INCHES. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION JUST
BELOW 700 MB...WHICH WAS BEING REFLECTED BY AN INCREASE IN
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AT FL095 AT LAUNCH TIME. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BELOW 850 MB...AND WEST ABOVE THAT LEVEL THROUGH
100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 127 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST AT 38.5K FEET.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 13.2K FEET...WITH -20C LEVEL AT 23K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE ALL THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. 11

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS MINUS THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BE MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  40  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  20  30  30
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 010103
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
703 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN
MOSS POINT AND INTERSTATE 10. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT AN ALTITUDE OF
100.6K FEET OR 19.1 MILES.

SOUNDING HAS MOISTENED UP A LITTLE BIT...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.72 INCHES. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION JUST
BELOW 700 MB...WHICH WAS BEING REFLECTED BY AN INCREASE IN
ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AT FL095 AT LAUNCH TIME. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BELOW 850 MB...AND WEST ABOVE THAT LEVEL THROUGH
100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 127 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST AT 38.5K FEET.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 13.2K FEET...WITH -20C LEVEL AT 23K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE ALL THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. 11

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS MINUS THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BE MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  40  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  20  30  30
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 282120
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE ALL THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS MINUS THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BE MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  40  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  20  30  30
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 282120
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE ALL THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS MINUS THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BE MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  40  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  20  30  30
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 281307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 281307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 281307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









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