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000
FXUS64 KLIX 080525
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS MONDAY AT THE MORE COASTAL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  53  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  38  56  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  35  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  58  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  38  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  34  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ530-532-534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ532-534.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 080525
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS MONDAY AT THE MORE COASTAL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  53  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  38  56  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  35  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  58  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  38  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  34  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ530-532-534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ532-534.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 080525
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS MONDAY AT THE MORE COASTAL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  53  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  38  56  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  35  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  58  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  38  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  34  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ530-532-534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ532-534.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 072114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
314 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST
FLOW A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED...AS NOTED BY THE LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON...AND PW VALUES OF LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES
WHEN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS TOMORROW MORNING. AS A RESULT...ONLY A
FEW PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...A SURGE OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WILL ALSO INCREASE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
TOMORROW AND THEN PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS COULD
EASILY GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SOME COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT IN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THE MAIN COLD POOL WILL REALLY TAKE
HOLD TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. ON
TUESDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWS IN THE 30S WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HELPING
TO KEEP THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOME INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER TEXAS FINALLY BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND THEN
FURTHER WARM TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS WILL TAKE ON A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OCCUR. AS A
RESULT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IN THE 40S.

THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INTERACT WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FORCING AND OVERALL LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND NORTHSHORE...AND HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHT RISK OF A SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER THESE AREAS. THE FARTHER
WEST IN THE CWA...THE LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN DUE TO THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES...BUT OVERALL READINGS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERALL...A
PLEASANT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS ADVECT INTO THE REGION. CLOSER TO SHORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE
WARMER WATERS...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS
WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED OFFSHORE FLOW OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO SHORE...AND 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO
RESPOND TO THESE STRONG WINDS...WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FEET
POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE SOUNDS AND
LAKES.  THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SLOWLY EASE
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS FALLING BACK INTO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY FALLING
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME MORE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL FALL TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...MET ON SITE FOR MARDI GRAS SUPPORT IN NEW ORLEANS.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.
MONITORING MARINE AREAS FOR INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS/GALE WARNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  53  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  38  56  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  35  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  58  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  38  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  34  57  31  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ530-532-534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ532-534.

&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 071701
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1101 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
GROUND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO PREVENT SUCCESSFUL SOUNDING.
PARTS FOR REPAIR ARE ON ORDER. 95/DM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...
VERY PROGRESSIVE BUT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE EXPANSIVE ROSBY WAVE OVER TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING...DRY COLD
AIR WILL SIMPLY REPLACE THE SAME. BUT THIS TIME A LITTLE MORE WIND
WILL ACCOMPANY ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDY SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE ALL WE SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OUT...A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LARGER ROSBY WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA PROVIDING
CLOUDY SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED. THE ONE AFTER THAT SHOULD
BE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST AND DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE OF PRODUCING
PRECIP EITHER...BUT WHAT IS BEING RESOLVED IN THE MASS FIELDS IS
QPF THAT LOOKS LIKE RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD
NOT BE THE CASE AS THE FCASTED ENVIRONMENTAL INVERSION IN SOUNDING
PROFILES OVER THE FRONTAL REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST MODERATE ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SH/TS FROM DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WHAT THE MODEL MASS
FIELDS LOOK TO BE RESOLVING IS VERY THICK DENSE FOG FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD MAKE A LOT MORE SENSE. BUT THIS IS A LONG
WAY OUT FOR FCASTING FOG WHICH CAN BE VERY TOUGH EVEN 24 HOURS
OUT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY EASING OF WINDS AND SEAS. BY
MONDAY...A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. AS
THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.
             MONITORING MARINE AREAS FOR INCREASED WINDS AND
             SEAS/GALE WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

98

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  38  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  42  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  43  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  43  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  58  42  56  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

24/RR





000
FXUS64 KLIX 071701
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1101 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
GROUND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO PREVENT SUCCESSFUL SOUNDING.
PARTS FOR REPAIR ARE ON ORDER. 95/DM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...
VERY PROGRESSIVE BUT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE EXPANSIVE ROSBY WAVE OVER TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING...DRY COLD
AIR WILL SIMPLY REPLACE THE SAME. BUT THIS TIME A LITTLE MORE WIND
WILL ACCOMPANY ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDY SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE ALL WE SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OUT...A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LARGER ROSBY WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA PROVIDING
CLOUDY SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED. THE ONE AFTER THAT SHOULD
BE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST AND DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE OF PRODUCING
PRECIP EITHER...BUT WHAT IS BEING RESOLVED IN THE MASS FIELDS IS
QPF THAT LOOKS LIKE RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD
NOT BE THE CASE AS THE FCASTED ENVIRONMENTAL INVERSION IN SOUNDING
PROFILES OVER THE FRONTAL REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST MODERATE ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SH/TS FROM DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WHAT THE MODEL MASS
FIELDS LOOK TO BE RESOLVING IS VERY THICK DENSE FOG FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD MAKE A LOT MORE SENSE. BUT THIS IS A LONG
WAY OUT FOR FCASTING FOG WHICH CAN BE VERY TOUGH EVEN 24 HOURS
OUT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY EASING OF WINDS AND SEAS. BY
MONDAY...A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. AS
THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.
             MONITORING MARINE AREAS FOR INCREASED WINDS AND
             SEAS/GALE WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

98

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  38  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  42  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  43  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  43  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  58  42  56  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

24/RR




000
FXUS64 KLIX 071408
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
808 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
GROUND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO PREVENT SUCCESSFUL SOUNDING.
PARTS FOR REPAIR ARE ON ORDER. 95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...
VERY PROGRESSIVE BUT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE EXPANSIVE ROSBY WAVE OVER TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING...DRY COLD
AIR WILL SIMPLY REPLACE THE SAME. BUT THIS TIME A LITTLE MORE WIND
WILL ACCOMPANY ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDY SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE ALL WE SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OUT...A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LARGER ROSBY WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA PROVIDING
CLOUDY SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED. THE ONE AFTER THAT SHOULD
BE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST AND DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE OF PRODUCING
PRECIP EITHER...BUT WHAT IS BEING RESOLVED IN THE MASS FIELDS IS
QPF THAT LOOKS LIKE RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD
NOT BE THE CASE AS THE FCASTED ENVIRONMENTAL INVERSION IN SOUNDING
PROFILES OVER THE FRONTAL REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST MODERATE ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SH/TS FROM DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WHAT THE MODEL MASS
FIELDS LOOK TO BE RESOLVING IS VERY THICK DENSE FOG FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD MAKE A LOT MORE SENSE. BUT THIS IS A LONG
WAY OUT FOR FCASTING FOG WHICH CAN BE VERY TOUGH EVEN 24 HOURS
OUT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY EASING OF WINDS AND SEAS. BY
MONDAY...A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. AS
THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.
             MONITORING MARINE AREAS FOR INCREASED WINDS AND
             SEAS/GALE WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

98

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  38  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  42  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  43  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  43  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  58  42  56  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 071408
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
808 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
GROUND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO PREVENT SUCCESSFUL SOUNDING.
PARTS FOR REPAIR ARE ON ORDER. 95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...
VERY PROGRESSIVE BUT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE EXPANSIVE ROSBY WAVE OVER TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING...DRY COLD
AIR WILL SIMPLY REPLACE THE SAME. BUT THIS TIME A LITTLE MORE WIND
WILL ACCOMPANY ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDY SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE ALL WE SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OUT...A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LARGER ROSBY WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA PROVIDING
CLOUDY SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED. THE ONE AFTER THAT SHOULD
BE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST AND DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE OF PRODUCING
PRECIP EITHER...BUT WHAT IS BEING RESOLVED IN THE MASS FIELDS IS
QPF THAT LOOKS LIKE RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD
NOT BE THE CASE AS THE FCASTED ENVIRONMENTAL INVERSION IN SOUNDING
PROFILES OVER THE FRONTAL REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST MODERATE ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SH/TS FROM DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WHAT THE MODEL MASS
FIELDS LOOK TO BE RESOLVING IS VERY THICK DENSE FOG FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD MAKE A LOT MORE SENSE. BUT THIS IS A LONG
WAY OUT FOR FCASTING FOG WHICH CAN BE VERY TOUGH EVEN 24 HOURS
OUT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY EASING OF WINDS AND SEAS. BY
MONDAY...A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. AS
THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.
             MONITORING MARINE AREAS FOR INCREASED WINDS AND
             SEAS/GALE WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

98

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  38  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  42  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  43  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  43  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  58  42  56  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 071408
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
808 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
GROUND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO PREVENT SUCCESSFUL SOUNDING.
PARTS FOR REPAIR ARE ON ORDER. 95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...
VERY PROGRESSIVE BUT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE EXPANSIVE ROSBY WAVE OVER TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING...DRY COLD
AIR WILL SIMPLY REPLACE THE SAME. BUT THIS TIME A LITTLE MORE WIND
WILL ACCOMPANY ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDY SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE ALL WE SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OUT...A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LARGER ROSBY WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA PROVIDING
CLOUDY SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED. THE ONE AFTER THAT SHOULD
BE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST AND DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE OF PRODUCING
PRECIP EITHER...BUT WHAT IS BEING RESOLVED IN THE MASS FIELDS IS
QPF THAT LOOKS LIKE RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD
NOT BE THE CASE AS THE FCASTED ENVIRONMENTAL INVERSION IN SOUNDING
PROFILES OVER THE FRONTAL REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST MODERATE ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SH/TS FROM DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WHAT THE MODEL MASS
FIELDS LOOK TO BE RESOLVING IS VERY THICK DENSE FOG FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD MAKE A LOT MORE SENSE. BUT THIS IS A LONG
WAY OUT FOR FCASTING FOG WHICH CAN BE VERY TOUGH EVEN 24 HOURS
OUT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY EASING OF WINDS AND SEAS. BY
MONDAY...A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. AS
THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.
             MONITORING MARINE AREAS FOR INCREASED WINDS AND
             SEAS/GALE WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

98

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  38  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  42  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  43  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  43  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  58  42  56  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 070827
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
227 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...
VERY PROGRESSIVE BUT DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. UPPER TROUGHING
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE EXPANSIVE ROSBY WAVE OVER TWO THIRDS
OF THE CONUS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY MORNING...DRY COLD
AIR WILL SIMPLY REPLACE THE SAME. BUT THIS TIME A LITTLE MORE WIND
WILL ACCOMPANY ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDY SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE ALL WE SEE WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS THE UPPER
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OUT...A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LARGER ROSBY WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA PROVIDING
CLOUDY SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE...DRY COOL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED. THE ONE AFTER THAT SHOULD
BE IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST AND DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE OF PRODUCING
PRECIP EITHER...BUT WHAT IS BEING RESOLVED IN THE MASS FIELDS IS
QPF THAT LOOKS LIKE RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD
NOT BE THE CASE AS THE FCASTED ENVIRONMENTAL INVERSION IN SOUNDING
PROFILES OVER THE FRONTAL REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST MODERATE ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SH/TS FROM DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WHAT THE MODEL MASS
FIELDS LOOK TO BE RESOLVING IS VERY THICK DENSE FOG FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD MAKE A LOT MORE SENSE. BUT THIS IS A LONG
WAY OUT FOR FCASTING FOG WHICH CAN BE VERY TOUGH EVEN 24 HOURS
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY EASING OF WINDS AND SEAS. BY MONDAY...A
REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. AS THE ARCTIC
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.
             MONITORING MARINE AREAS FOR INCREASED WINDS AND
             SEAS/GALE WATCH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&
98

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  38  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  60  39  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  58  42  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  43  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  43  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  58  42  56  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 070529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  53  41  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  36  57  42  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  54  47  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  53  46  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  40  54  47  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  54  46  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 070529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  53  41  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  36  57  42  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  54  47  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  53  46  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  40  54  47  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  54  46  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 070529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  53  41  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  36  57  42  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  54  47  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  53  46  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  40  54  47  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  54  46  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 070019
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
619 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO FLIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO GROUND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS. AWAITING PARTS
FOR REPAIRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED STRONG OMEGA TO FORCE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A CONVERGENCE LAYER THAT SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY JUST OFF THE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT. HEAVY VIRGA MAY ALLOW SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES IN THE LAND AREAS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
PM...BUT SHOULD REMAIN INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF SOLUTIONS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE LOWER COLUMN AND SOME CONSIDERATION FOR
WET-BULB COOLING UNDER VIRGA MAY ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WENT ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES BELOW THE COLDER GFS
VALUES FOR THIS REASON TONIGHT AND PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THERMAL TROUGH BASES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER THE
NEXT POLAR SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IT IS STILL ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE MORE PRONE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL EPISODES THIS
SEASON...THEN MID 30S ELSEWHERE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPS STAY COOL TO MILD IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
MARDI GRAS DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SUNNY BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADIENT WINDS WILL PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A SLOW WARMING
TREND THEN TAKES PLACE ASH WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING FLATTENS AND SURFACE POLAR HIGH MODERATES BY THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES EAST AND USHERS ANOTHER
CANADIAN SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF PRODUCES
FRONTAL RAINFALL NEXT FRIDAY EVENING...THE GFS TO A LESSER
EXTENT AND DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY. IF THAT SHOT AT RAINFALL IS
MISSED...IT MAY BE A CONSIDERABLY LONG STRETCH OF DRYNESS BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE TO FAVOR MORE LONGER DWELL TIME
MOISTURE. 24/RR

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
RANGING FROM 10K TO 25K THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPS
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ON THE TERMINALS. 32

MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL BE ADDED INTO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE WINDS.  A
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.  THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  THESE CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY.  AS THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE SOME FRICTIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN WIND SPEED...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  GALE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AT SOME POINT IN
THE FUTURE.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW OFFSHORE WINDS TO FALL BACK
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM 10 TO 12 FEET DOWN TO 6
TO 8 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS FALLING BACK TO 4 FEET OR LESS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NOHSEP SUPPORT.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  53  41  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  36  57  42  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  54  47  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  53  46  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  40  54  47  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  54  46  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 070019
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
619 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO FLIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO GROUND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS. AWAITING PARTS
FOR REPAIRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED STRONG OMEGA TO FORCE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A CONVERGENCE LAYER THAT SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY JUST OFF THE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT. HEAVY VIRGA MAY ALLOW SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES IN THE LAND AREAS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
PM...BUT SHOULD REMAIN INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF SOLUTIONS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE LOWER COLUMN AND SOME CONSIDERATION FOR
WET-BULB COOLING UNDER VIRGA MAY ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WENT ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES BELOW THE COLDER GFS
VALUES FOR THIS REASON TONIGHT AND PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THERMAL TROUGH BASES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER THE
NEXT POLAR SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IT IS STILL ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE MORE PRONE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL EPISODES THIS
SEASON...THEN MID 30S ELSEWHERE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPS STAY COOL TO MILD IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
MARDI GRAS DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SUNNY BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADIENT WINDS WILL PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A SLOW WARMING
TREND THEN TAKES PLACE ASH WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING FLATTENS AND SURFACE POLAR HIGH MODERATES BY THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES EAST AND USHERS ANOTHER
CANADIAN SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF PRODUCES
FRONTAL RAINFALL NEXT FRIDAY EVENING...THE GFS TO A LESSER
EXTENT AND DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY. IF THAT SHOT AT RAINFALL IS
MISSED...IT MAY BE A CONSIDERABLY LONG STRETCH OF DRYNESS BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE TO FAVOR MORE LONGER DWELL TIME
MOISTURE. 24/RR

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
RANGING FROM 10K TO 25K THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPS
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ON THE TERMINALS. 32

MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL BE ADDED INTO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE WINDS.  A
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.  THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  THESE CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY.  AS THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE SOME FRICTIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN WIND SPEED...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  GALE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AT SOME POINT IN
THE FUTURE.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW OFFSHORE WINDS TO FALL BACK
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM 10 TO 12 FEET DOWN TO 6
TO 8 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS FALLING BACK TO 4 FEET OR LESS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NOHSEP SUPPORT.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  53  41  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  36  57  42  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  54  47  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  53  46  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  40  54  47  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  54  46  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 070019
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
619 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO FLIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO GROUND EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS. AWAITING PARTS
FOR REPAIRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED STRONG OMEGA TO FORCE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A CONVERGENCE LAYER THAT SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY JUST OFF THE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT. HEAVY VIRGA MAY ALLOW SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES IN THE LAND AREAS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
PM...BUT SHOULD REMAIN INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF SOLUTIONS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE LOWER COLUMN AND SOME CONSIDERATION FOR
WET-BULB COOLING UNDER VIRGA MAY ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WENT ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES BELOW THE COLDER GFS
VALUES FOR THIS REASON TONIGHT AND PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THERMAL TROUGH BASES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER THE
NEXT POLAR SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IT IS STILL ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE MORE PRONE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL EPISODES THIS
SEASON...THEN MID 30S ELSEWHERE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPS STAY COOL TO MILD IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
MARDI GRAS DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SUNNY BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADIENT WINDS WILL PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A SLOW WARMING
TREND THEN TAKES PLACE ASH WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING FLATTENS AND SURFACE POLAR HIGH MODERATES BY THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES EAST AND USHERS ANOTHER
CANADIAN SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF PRODUCES
FRONTAL RAINFALL NEXT FRIDAY EVENING...THE GFS TO A LESSER
EXTENT AND DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY. IF THAT SHOT AT RAINFALL IS
MISSED...IT MAY BE A CONSIDERABLY LONG STRETCH OF DRYNESS BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE TO FAVOR MORE LONGER DWELL TIME
MOISTURE. 24/RR

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
RANGING FROM 10K TO 25K THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPS
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ON THE TERMINALS. 32

MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL BE ADDED INTO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE WINDS.  A
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.  THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  THESE CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY.  AS THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE SOME FRICTIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN WIND SPEED...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  GALE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AT SOME POINT IN
THE FUTURE.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW OFFSHORE WINDS TO FALL BACK
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM 10 TO 12 FEET DOWN TO 6
TO 8 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS FALLING BACK TO 4 FEET OR LESS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NOHSEP SUPPORT.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  53  41  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  36  57  42  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  54  47  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  53  46  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  40  54  47  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  54  46  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 062037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES STATES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE
DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED STRONG OMEGA TO FORCE SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A CONVERGENCE LAYER THAT SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY JUST OFF THE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
RAPIDLY PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT. HEAVY VIRGA MAY ALLOW SOME BRIEF
SPRINKLES IN THE LAND AREAS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 8
PM...BUT SHOULD REMAIN INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER OF SOLUTIONS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE LOWER COLUMN AND SOME CONSIDERATION FOR
WET-BULB COOLING UNDER VIRGA MAY ALLOW FOR EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WENT ABOUT 1-2 DEGREES BELOW THE COLDER GFS
VALUES FOR THIS REASON TONIGHT AND PARTICULARLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN THERMAL TROUGH BASES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER THE
NEXT POLAR SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IT IS STILL ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE MORE PRONE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL EPISODES THIS
SEASON...THEN MID 30S ELSEWHERE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. DAYTIME TEMPS STAY COOL TO MILD IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...
MARDI GRAS DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SUNNY BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION GRADIENT WINDS WILL PRODUCE UNCOMFORTABLE WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A SLOW WARMING
TREND THEN TAKES PLACE ASH WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING FLATTENS AND SURFACE POLAR HIGH MODERATES BY THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM RACES EAST AND USHERS ANOTHER
CANADIAN SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF PRODUCES
FRONTAL RAINFALL NEXT FRIDAY EVENING...THE GFS TO A LESSER
EXTENT AND DELAYED UNTIL SATURDAY. IF THAT SHOT AT RAINFALL IS
MISSED...IT MAY BE A CONSIDERABLY LONG STRETCH OF DRYNESS BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE TO FAVOR MORE LONGER DWELL TIME
MOISTURE. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
RANGING FROM 10K TO 25K THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPS
THROUGH THE GULF SOUTH...BUT THESE WILL HAVE NO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS
ON THE TERMINALS. 32

&&

.MARINE...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES WILL BE ADDED INTO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE WINDS.  A
SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND WINDS SHOULD FALL BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.  THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE HIGH
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  THESE CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS A REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT SURGES INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY.  AS THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDS IN...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 35 KNOTS WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.  THERE WILL BE SOME FRICTIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN WIND SPEED...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  GALE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AT SOME POINT IN
THE FUTURE.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO RELAX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW OFFSHORE WINDS TO FALL BACK
TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL FROM 10 TO 12 FEET DOWN TO 6
TO 8 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OFF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS FALLING BACK TO 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NOHSEP SUPPORT.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  53  41  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  36  57  42  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  40  54  47  51 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  42  53  46  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  40  54  47  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  54  46  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35





000
FXUS64 KLIX 061708
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1108 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...

OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 10K AND
25K FEET...NO WEATHER RESTRICTIONS TO TERMINAL OPERATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  31  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  34  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  56  35  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  40  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  37  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  55  35  58  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32




000
FXUS64 KLIX 061708
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1108 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...

OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 10K AND
25K FEET...NO WEATHER RESTRICTIONS TO TERMINAL OPERATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  31  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  34  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  56  35  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  40  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  37  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  55  35  58  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 061708
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1108 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...

OUTSIDE OF SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 10K AND
25K FEET...NO WEATHER RESTRICTIONS TO TERMINAL OPERATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  31  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  34  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  56  35  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  40  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  37  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  55  35  58  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 060931
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EAST TX IS ON ITS WAY. THIS
WILL SIMPLY BE A REINFORCEMENT TO THE DRY COOL AIR THAT IS ALREADY
IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLYL MOVE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY THING THAT WILL BE SEEN FROM THIS MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FOR
THOSE EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA. CLOUD DECK MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
GET A FEW SHOWERS OUT OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
ATCHAFALAYA. DEEP DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE STUBBORN TO MOVE AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN MISS AND SE LA. SO ANY CLOUDS THAT MANAGE TO GET TO THE
MISS RIVER WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST. WE WILL TRANSITION
RAPIDLY TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE A
LITTLE MORE OF A POLAR FEEL TO IT. IT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY NOON
MONDAY. AGAIN THE ONLY THINGS THAT WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE FROM
THIS WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS...DP DROP FROM 40S TO 20S...AND NW WINDS
WILL RISE QUITE A BIT MOSTLY OVER MARINE AREAS. THIS FRONT WILL
BE BRIDGED BY A FAST MOVING RIDGE DROPPING FROM THE NORTH CAUSING
ANY CLOUDINESS TO DECAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH WILL CAUSE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS TO DIG SOUTHWARD
BUT SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY
EVENING. COOL DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE WITH US THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARD US BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AFTER THIS ONE. BY THAT TIME WE MAY BE LOOKING FOR A BIT OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD PART OF MONDAY...TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH WE
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AT THIS POINT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE
WARNINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT ALL WITH WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS AND ABOVE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&
98

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  31  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  34  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  56  35  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  40  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  37  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  55  35  58  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 060522
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1122 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  30  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  32  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 052133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION TONIGHT AFTER WINDS ABATE WITH
SUNSET. SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE A LIGHT FREEZE MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
MORE INTERIOR LOCALES. A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A RAPIDLY MOVING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
SKIRTS THE COAST TOWARDS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT 10-20 PERCENT MENTION...BUT REST OF AREA TO REMAIN DRY.
A SIMILAR LIGHT FREEZE NIGHT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF CANADIAN COLD AIR EXPECTING TO
BUILD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS. COLD AIR
MASS TO IMPART AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTINESS ON MARDI GRAS DAY
THAT COULD MAKE THINGS FIT A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE FROM A WIND CHILL
STANDPOINT...BUT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP EASE THE BITE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MODERATES OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
YET ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. WENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. IT MAY BE
WORTH NOTING THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY OVERACHIEVE ON THE
LOW END DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
HAVE SOME RAMIFICATIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING DUE TO VERY LOW
HUMIDITY COMBINING WITH HIGH WINDS AND GENERAL GUSTINESS. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SETTLING FROM HIGHER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE STATE SATURDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SURGE INTO THE NORTH
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SECOND SURGE TAKES PLACE MONDAY
TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLANES STATES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  30  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  32  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35




000
FXUS64 KLIX 052133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION TONIGHT AFTER WINDS ABATE WITH
SUNSET. SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE A LIGHT FREEZE MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
MORE INTERIOR LOCALES. A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A RAPIDLY MOVING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
SKIRTS THE COAST TOWARDS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT 10-20 PERCENT MENTION...BUT REST OF AREA TO REMAIN DRY.
A SIMILAR LIGHT FREEZE NIGHT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF CANADIAN COLD AIR EXPECTING TO
BUILD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS. COLD AIR
MASS TO IMPART AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTINESS ON MARDI GRAS DAY
THAT COULD MAKE THINGS FIT A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE FROM A WIND CHILL
STANDPOINT...BUT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP EASE THE BITE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MODERATES OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
YET ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. WENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. IT MAY BE
WORTH NOTING THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY OVERACHIEVE ON THE
LOW END DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
HAVE SOME RAMIFICATIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING DUE TO VERY LOW
HUMIDITY COMBINING WITH HIGH WINDS AND GENERAL GUSTINESS. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SETTLING FROM HIGHER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE STATE SATURDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SURGE INTO THE NORTH
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SECOND SURGE TAKES PLACE MONDAY
TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLANES STATES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  30  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  32  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35





000
FXUS64 KLIX 052133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION TONIGHT AFTER WINDS ABATE WITH
SUNSET. SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE A LIGHT FREEZE MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
MORE INTERIOR LOCALES. A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A RAPIDLY MOVING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
SKIRTS THE COAST TOWARDS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT 10-20 PERCENT MENTION...BUT REST OF AREA TO REMAIN DRY.
A SIMILAR LIGHT FREEZE NIGHT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF CANADIAN COLD AIR EXPECTING TO
BUILD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS. COLD AIR
MASS TO IMPART AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTINESS ON MARDI GRAS DAY
THAT COULD MAKE THINGS FIT A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE FROM A WIND CHILL
STANDPOINT...BUT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP EASE THE BITE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MODERATES OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
YET ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. WENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. IT MAY BE
WORTH NOTING THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY OVERACHIEVE ON THE
LOW END DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
HAVE SOME RAMIFICATIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING DUE TO VERY LOW
HUMIDITY COMBINING WITH HIGH WINDS AND GENERAL GUSTINESS. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SETTLING FROM HIGHER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE STATE SATURDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SURGE INTO THE NORTH
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SECOND SURGE TAKES PLACE MONDAY
TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLANES STATES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  30  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  32  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35





000
FXUS64 KLIX 051730
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THIS WILL
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 051730
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THIS WILL
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051730
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THIS WILL
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 051335
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
735 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING BALLOON OBSERVATION REVEALED WHAT WE ALREADY
KNOW...BONE DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.09 INCH IS WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IS
PRESENT FROM SURF TO 6KFT THEN NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW FROM 6KFT TO
50KFT. STEEP INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE TO 1500 FEET
AND ANOTHER 7500 FEET TO 9600 FEET. ALL IN ALL...DRY VERY STABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE AGAIN CHANGED WITH THE TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THEY
HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND NOW HAVE THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND
EXITING JUST AFTER DARK. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH JUST
BEFORE DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MARINE ISSUES THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH EITHER FRONT. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTICED AS THEY ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ALONG EACH FRONT. THE FIRST
FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW RAIN DROPS WITH IT BUT ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO FALL SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.

LONG TERM...
A DEEP MID AND UPPER THERMAL TROUGH MOST NOTEABLE AT ABOUT 500MB
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY. A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT WILL DENOTE THE
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS MOSTLY ALONG AND COLDER THAN
THE -25C @500. THE FCASTED POSITION OF THIS TROUGH HAS SLIPPED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST IMPORTANT IN PRODUCING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POST-FRONTAL TROUGHING. THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIP
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MISS TO CENTRAL ALA FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DEEP DRY AIR COLUMN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THOUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS WELL OUTSIDE THE TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THIS
FCAST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

MARINE...

WINDS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AND
REPLACE IT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES
THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT ONE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH...COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 051335
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
735 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING BALLOON OBSERVATION REVEALED WHAT WE ALREADY
KNOW...BONE DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.09 INCH IS WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IS
PRESENT FROM SURF TO 6KFT THEN NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW FROM 6KFT TO
50KFT. STEEP INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE TO 1500 FEET
AND ANOTHER 7500 FEET TO 9600 FEET. ALL IN ALL...DRY VERY STABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE AGAIN CHANGED WITH THE TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THEY
HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND NOW HAVE THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND
EXITING JUST AFTER DARK. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH JUST
BEFORE DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MARINE ISSUES THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH EITHER FRONT. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTICED AS THEY ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ALONG EACH FRONT. THE FIRST
FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW RAIN DROPS WITH IT BUT ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO FALL SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.

LONG TERM...
A DEEP MID AND UPPER THERMAL TROUGH MOST NOTEABLE AT ABOUT 500MB
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY. A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT WILL DENOTE THE
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS MOSTLY ALONG AND COLDER THAN
THE -25C @500. THE FCASTED POSITION OF THIS TROUGH HAS SLIPPED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST IMPORTANT IN PRODUCING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POST-FRONTAL TROUGHING. THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIP
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MISS TO CENTRAL ALA FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DEEP DRY AIR COLUMN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THOUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS WELL OUTSIDE THE TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THIS
FCAST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

MARINE...

WINDS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AND
REPLACE IT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES
THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT ONE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH...COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051335
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
735 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING BALLOON OBSERVATION REVEALED WHAT WE ALREADY
KNOW...BONE DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.09 INCH IS WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IS
PRESENT FROM SURF TO 6KFT THEN NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW FROM 6KFT TO
50KFT. STEEP INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE TO 1500 FEET
AND ANOTHER 7500 FEET TO 9600 FEET. ALL IN ALL...DRY VERY STABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE AGAIN CHANGED WITH THE TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THEY
HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND NOW HAVE THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND
EXITING JUST AFTER DARK. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH JUST
BEFORE DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MARINE ISSUES THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH EITHER FRONT. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTICED AS THEY ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ALONG EACH FRONT. THE FIRST
FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW RAIN DROPS WITH IT BUT ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO FALL SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.

LONG TERM...
A DEEP MID AND UPPER THERMAL TROUGH MOST NOTEABLE AT ABOUT 500MB
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY. A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT WILL DENOTE THE
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS MOSTLY ALONG AND COLDER THAN
THE -25C @500. THE FCASTED POSITION OF THIS TROUGH HAS SLIPPED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST IMPORTANT IN PRODUCING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POST-FRONTAL TROUGHING. THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIP
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MISS TO CENTRAL ALA FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DEEP DRY AIR COLUMN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THOUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS WELL OUTSIDE THE TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THIS
FCAST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

MARINE...

WINDS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AND
REPLACE IT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES
THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT ONE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH...COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 050915
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE AGAIN CHANGED WITH THE TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THEY
HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND NOW HAVE THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND
EXITING JUST AFTER DARK. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH JUST
BEFORE DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MARINE ISSUES THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH EITHER FRONT. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTICED AS THEY ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ALONG EACH FRONT. THE FIRST
FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW RAIN DROPS WITH IT BUT ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO FALL SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.

.LONG TERM...
A DEEP MID AND UPPER THERMAL TROUGH MOST NOTEABLE AT ABOUT 500MB
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY. A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT WILL DENOTE THE
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS MOSTLY ALONG AND COLDER THAN
THE -25C @500. THE FCASTED POSITION OF THIS TROUGH HAS SLIPPED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST IMPORTANT IN PRODUCING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POST-FRONTAL TROUGHING. THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIP
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MISS TO CENTRAL ALA FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DEEP DRY AIR COLUMN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THOUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS WELL OUTSIDE THE TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THIS
FCAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AND
REPLACE IT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES
THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT ONE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH...COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





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