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000
FXUS64 KLIX 310411
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1111 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  71  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  47  74  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  45  75  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  74  45  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  46  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  41  76  36  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 310411
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1111 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  71  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  47  74  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  45  75  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  74  45  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  46  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  41  76  36  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 310049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
749 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ATMOSPHERE HAS REALLY COOLED OFF AND DRIED OUT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN/S TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
LOWERED BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. IN THE LOWEST 5000
FEET...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN AN INCH AND WELL BELOW THE 0.90
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE FOR LATE OCTOBER. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
MID-LEVELS AND FINALLY THE WEST ABOVE 350MB. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF
57 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 26500 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THIS EVENING/S FLIGHT. THE
BALLOON WAS IN FLIGHT FOR 100 MINUTES AND BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE TERMINATION OCCURRED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PASS CHRISTIAN MS 40 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE
LAUNCH SITE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCALLY...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THE COOLER
AIR MASS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY SITTING IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY A QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES SINCE
THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AGAIN. LATE BUT THEN A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND FRIDAY
EVENING AND TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES AT TRICK OR TREAT TIME WILL DROP FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AROUND 5PM TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY 8PM. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY SETS IN...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER.
LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND IT APPEARS POSSIBLE A FEW PLACES WON/T
EVEN REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE EURO GUIDANCE WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING THE
SEASON/S FIRST FREEZE HAS WARMED BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND IS NOW
IN LINE WITH THE MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FORECASTING LOWS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. AM STILL CARRYING TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...BUT WITH THE
JET PATTERN BRINGING IN COLD AIR DIRECT FROM CANADA...CAN/T RULE
OUT THAT ONE OR TWO ISOLATED LOCATIONS MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECASTS AS THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY...AND BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ALMOST A FULL 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST. WHILE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN HOLDING THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE GFS INDICATES THE NEXT FRONT
COULD ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO
ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT MORE INCONSISTENT WITH
ITS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUN ELONGATED THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF A LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH RESULTED IN HOLDING THE
FRONT BACK FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z RUN...HOWEVER...HAS COME MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. WHILE IT STILL CLOSES OFF A LOW
OVER TEXAS...IT NEVER TRULY DISSOCIATES FROM THE MEAN FLOW.
INSTEAD...IT MOVES EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED THE FAR
EXTENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS AND ITS FASTER SOLUTION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY
TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY TOMORROW MORNING AS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER BEING ELEVATED THIS
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE FRI/SAT AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR FRI EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  71  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  47  74  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  45  75  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  74  45  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  46  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  41  76  36  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 302038
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCALLY...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THE COOLER
AIR MASS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY SITTING IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY A QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES SINCE
THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AGAIN. LATE BUT THEN A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND FRIDAY
EVENING AND TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES AT TRICK OR TREAT TIME WILL DROP FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AROUND 5PM TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY 8PM. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY SETS IN...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER.
LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND IT APPEARS POSSIBLE A FEW PLACES WON/T
EVEN REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE EURO GUIDANCE WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING THE
SEASON/S FIRST FREEZE HAS WARMED BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND IS NOW
IN LINE WITH THE MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FORECASTING LOWS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. AM STILL CARRYING TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...BUT WITH THE
JET PATTERN BRINGING IN COLD AIR DIRECT FROM CANADA...CAN/T RULE
OUT THAT ONE OR TWO ISOLATED LOCATIONS MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECASTS AS THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY...AND BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ALMOST A FULL 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST. WHILE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN HOLDING THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE GFS INDICATES THE NEXT FRONT
COULD ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO
ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT MORE INCONSISTENT WITH
ITS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUN ELONGATED THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF A LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH RESULTED IN HOLDING THE
FRONT BACK FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z RUN...HOWEVER...HAS COME MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. WHILE IT STILL CLOSES OFF A LOW
OVER TEXAS...IT NEVER TRULY DISSOCIATES FROM THE MEAN FLOW.
INSTEAD...IT MOVES EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED THE FAR
EXTENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS AND ITS FASTER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY
TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY TOMORROW MORNING AS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER BEING ELEVATED THIS
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE FRI/SAT AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR FRI EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  47  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  76  47  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  75  45  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  55  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  76  46  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  76  41  76  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 301717
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY
TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY TOMORROW MORNING AS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  72  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  50  74  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  74  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  75  45  61 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  48  74  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  43  75  39  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 300913
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISSCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND IS
CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE MORE
SEASONABLE UNTIL THE BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR ON TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING OF COLD AIR. THIS AIR WILL
ORIGINATE FROM CANADA AND WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. AN EAST COAST SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AND SHOULD ALSO HELP DRAW THAT COLDER AIR DEEPER INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS AIR WILL BE
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. IF YOU LOOK A THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED JET STRUCTURE THAT TAPS WELL INTO NORTHERN CANADA AND
THE WIND STREAMLINES/TRAJECTORY TAPPING INTO THAT NORTHERN
CANADIAN AIR HEADING DUE SOUTH CANADA...THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY
GOOD SETUP FOR SOME POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST...BASICALLY THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS
A WHOLE. FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD FEEL SOME OF THE COLD AIR BUT THE
COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD COME ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO COME IN COLDER. EVEN THOUGH THE BULK OF
THE COLD AIR WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...I HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT. I HAVE STAYED JUST
ABOVE THE EUROMOS AND UNDERCUT THE IN HOUSE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE...WITH THAT BEING SAID THAT LEAVES THE TEMPERATURES NORTH
OF THE LAKE RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY MORNING.
NOW...IF WE ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S...IF WINDS STAY UP
WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN THE
NEXT FEW FORECAST UPDATES.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE. BIGGEST RISE IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT A
GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KNEW THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SCS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST
OF THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD RELAX BY MIDDAY.
MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI/SAT AS A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY NOW AND MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR FRI
AFTN THROUGH MUCH OF SAT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ON MON...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  47  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  76  50  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  75  46  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  55  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  76  48  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  76  43  75  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 300427
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KNEW THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  73  46  72 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  52  75  49  73 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  50  76  45  74 /  20   0   0   0
MSY  59  75  55  74 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  54  76  47  74 /  20   0   0   0
PQL  49  75  43  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 300056
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
756 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/S SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH THE
NORTHSHORE BY LAUNCH TIME WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH. THERE WAS ALSO
A SHOWER IN THE HOUR BEFORE LAUNCH WHICH ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF A
SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION TO DEVELOP. THE LOW LEVELS WERE
FAIRLY SATURATED AS DRIER AIR WAS JUST BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. TOMORROW MORNING/S SOUNDING WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WILL BE WELL UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURE
AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL TONIGHT IS LOWER /COOLER/ THAN WHAT IT WAS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME /NOT TOO SURPRISING/. WINDS WERE CALM AT THE
SURFACE WHEN THE BALLOON WAS RELEASED...BUT WAS BRISKLY TAKEN
TOWARD LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FROM THE LAUNCH SITE WITH WIND FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH ABOUT 8000 FEET. THEN WINDS WERE
PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST FROM 8000 FEET TO THE TROPOPAUSE. A
MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 47 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 25500 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: TONIGHT/S FLIGHT LASTED 106 MINUTES AND ATTAINED A
HEIGHT OF 20.8 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING SOUTH OF
GULFPORT NEAR CAT ISLAND 47 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE LAUNCH SITE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.

LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A NARROW
AND BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ASSUMING THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD AS FORECAST...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BEFORE THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

A 1030MB HIGH SLIDING SOUTHWARD WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
COLDER. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR
THIS SEASON AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. MOS GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE ONCE AGAIN BUMPED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AM STILL A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR NORTHERN AREAS. AM
CARRYING TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH OF THE LAKE AND IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE. BIGGEST RISE IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT A
GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BY
06Z...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS NO
LATER THAN 12Z.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH FOLLOWING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND MAY BRIEFLY
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE AT THE VERY LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF CAUTION CRITERIA WILL
OCCUR...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS
WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOME MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  73  46  72 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  52  75  49  73 /  10   0   0   0
ASD  50  76  45  74 /  20   0   0   0
MSY  59  75  55  74 /  20   0   0   0
GPT  54  76  47  74 /  20   0   0   0
PQL  49  75  43  74 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 292001
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
301 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.

LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE SITTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A NARROW
AND BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ONE OR TWO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IS EVIDENT ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ASSUMING THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD AS FORECAST...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS BEFORE THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

A 1030MB HIGH SLIDING SOUTHWARD WILL REINFORCE THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
COLDER. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE LOWER 60S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR
THIS SEASON AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. MOS GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO COLD...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NORTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE ONCE AGAIN BUMPED
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AM STILL A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR NORTHERN AREAS. AM
CARRYING TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH OF THE LAKE AND IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME ONSHORE. BIGGEST RISE IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT A
GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE TERMINALS BY
06Z...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS NO
LATER THAN 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH FOLLOWING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
THURSDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND MAY BRIEFLY
REACH CAUTION CRITERIA FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE AT THE VERY LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF CAUTION CRITERIA WILL
OCCUR...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS
WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOME MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  50  73  46 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  80  52  75  49 /  30  10   0   0
ASD  81  50  76  45 /  30  20   0   0
MSY  81  59  75  55 /  20  20   0   0
GPT  80  54  76  47 /  30  20   0   0
PQL  81  49  75  43 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 291727
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1227 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE FOG HAS CLEARED FROM MOST OF THE AREA TERMINALS IN THE LAST
FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY KNEW STILL SEEING SOME MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HAZE. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED WITH ALL OF THE
TERMINALS NOW REPORTING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK GENERALLY
RUNNING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET. THESE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE TERMINALS
BY 06Z...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS NO
LATER THAN 12Z. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  73  48  72 /  10  10  10   0
BTR  53  75  49  75 /  10  10  10   0
ASD  55  75  45  74 /  10  10  10   0
MSY  61  75  55  75 /  20  10  10   0
GPT  56  75  48  74 /  20  10  10   0
PQL  53  74  43  73 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 290858
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE START OF THE DAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH PATCHY FOG...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY BE FAIRLY DENSE. OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 1/2 MILE AND UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHT COOLING IN THE
BOTTOM COOLING IN TH BOTTOM 50MB BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS SHOULD
WEAKEN THE INVERSION SOME AND THINKING IS THAT FOG DENSITY WILL NOT
GET ANY WORSE THAN CURRENT. FOR THIS REASON...WILL HOLD OFF ON DENSE
FOG ADVISORY BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE.

ONE LAST DAY OF WARM FALL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE
COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CWA. REALLY LIKED THE OUTPUT OF THE HRRR THIS MORNING IN TERMS
OF ITS INITIALIZATION AND FCST QPF WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT IN TERMS OF
COVERAGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH PWAT NEVER REACHING 1.5 INCHES
TODAY. SO HAVE DROPPED POPS ABOUT 5 TO 10 PERCENT TODAY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WHICH WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO ISOLATED. SVR WEATHER WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE.

.LONG TERM...
A SECONDARY VORT MAX WILL REALLY DIG THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS
THE SERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND A A
REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT
AS MOISTURE DOESNT HAVE TIME TO RETURN BEFORE THE BOUNDARY COMES
THROUGH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM
MIDWEEK. EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN COMING IN COLDER AND COLDER SO HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS TREND AS WELL. FCST TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF WHICH SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLDNESS OF THE AIR MASS...WITH THE MAV
PLAYING CATCH-UP. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS NIGHTTIME LOWS TO NEAR 40
DEGREES ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THOSE TWO NIGHTS AND HIGHS
SATURDAY 60 TO 65.  VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
MODIFYING AIRMASS BY MONDAY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY COMING BACK UP ALMOST
TO CLIMO NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES COULD BE COMING BACK MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS REALLY SLACKING OFF
RIGHT NOW AS FRONT APPROACHES BUT AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TODAY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION CAA WILL
HELP INCREASE THE WINDS EARLY THU MORNING WITH SCS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR GETS HERE FRI AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS IT WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SCY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI AFTN AND PERSIST INTO SAT. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...BROAD RANGE OF ISSUES AND STATUSES THIS MORNING.
TERMINALS AROUND THE REGION RANGE FROM LIFR TO VFR STATUS. THIS
MORNING LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPACT MOST TERMINALS OFF AN ON BUT
OVERALL BNDRY LAYER WINDS SHOULD MAINLY JUST LEAD TO LOW CIGS. AFTER
SUNRISE CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT WE MAY START TO SEE A FEW SHRA ANS TSRA DEVELOP. OVERALL
RAIN CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW AND WILL LIKELY KEEP MENTION OF THEM OUT
OF MOST TAFS...EXCEPTIONS OUR NERN HALF (MCB/ASD/GPT). IN ADDITION
LOOKS FROM WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE NW THEN N THIS AFTN BUT NOT
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. /CAB/

&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  50  73  48 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  80  53  75  49 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  81  55  75  45 /  30  10  10  10
MSY  81  61  75  55 /  20  20  10  10
GPT  80  56  75  48 /  30  20  10  10
PQL  81  53  74  43 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 290439
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1139 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD HELP LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES IN THE
3 TO 5SM RANGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT SOME SITES.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS AS
THIS BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  76  50  74 /  20  40  20  10
BTR  63  81  55  77 /  20  40  20  10
ASD  62  81  53  76 /  10  40  20  10
MSY  66  82  60  76 /  10  30  20  10
GPT  64  80  54  77 /  20  40  20  10
PQL  60  81  49  75 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 282022
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN UPPER
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THEN INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING IT EASTWARD WILL ELONGATE AND THE FRONT WILL LOSE
ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM. THIS WILL CAUSE IT TO STALL NEAR THE
AREA...BUT NOT FOR LONG. BY THURSDAY...A SECOND AND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE WITH ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS FORECAST MOST PLACES.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT AS THE SECONDARY
SURGE SENDS A 1030MB HIGH SOUTHWARD. 00Z EURO MOS GUIDANCE IS
COLDEST WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THINK THIS IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE AND
WHILE I HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
WEEKEND...AM SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE EURO. HAVE GENERALLY
TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING AND
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH OF THE LAKE. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S.

COLDEST AIR WILL ONLY STICK AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN RESULTS IN A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THROUGH
06Z...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS RUNNING AROUND 3500 TO 5000 FEET.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION AFTER 06Z. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS
RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM FULLY EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE. IF THIS OCCURS...THE FOG SEEN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL NOT DEVELOP AS FULLY. HOWEVER...IF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO DECREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME...THE INVERSION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FULLY DESCEND TO THE
SURFACE. IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE PUT IN TEMPO GROUP
WORDING WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND LIFR CEILINGS TO REFLECT
THE FOG RISK AT KHUM...KBTR...KHDC...AND KMCB WHERE THE INVERSION
IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKEST. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AFTER 15Z...ANY INVERSION WILL QUICKLY
LIFT AND CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK INTO MVFR AND VFR RANGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BRINGING OFFSHORE FLOW BACK OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE THURSDAY AS STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS LOOK POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES LIKELY AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  63  76  50  74 /  20  40  20  10
BTR  63  81  55  77 /  20  40  20  10
ASD  62  81  53  76 /  10  40  20  10
MSY  66  82  60  76 /  10  30  20  10
GPT  64  80  54  77 /  20  40  20  10
PQL  60  81  49  75 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281732
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THROUGH
06Z...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS RUNNING AROUND 3500 TO 5000 FEET.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION AFTER 06Z. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS
RANGING FROM 500 TO 1000 FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT AN ELEVATED INVERSION
FROM FULLY EXTENDING TO THE SURFACE. IF THIS OCCURS...THE FOG SEEN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL NOT DEVELOP AS FULLY. HOWEVER...IF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO DECREASE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME...THE INVERSION WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FULLY DESCEND TO THE
SURFACE. IF THIS OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE PUT IN TEMPO GROUP
WORDING WITH IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND LIFR CEILINGS TO REFLECT
THE FOG RISK AT KHUM...KBTR...KHDC...AND KMCB WHERE THE INVERSION
IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WEAKEST. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AFTER 15Z...ANY INVERSION WILL QUICKLY
LIFT AND CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK INTO MVFR AND VFR RANGE.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  77  53  73 /  20  30  10  10
BTR  62  80  57  75 /  10  30  10  10
ASD  62  82  55  75 /  10  30  10  10
MSY  66  82  61  74 /  10  30  10  10
GPT  65  80  56  75 /  20  30  20  10
PQL  60  80  52  75 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 281412
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
912 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HEADLINES AND ANY FOG
WORDING FOR THIS MORNING SINCE ALL FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.  95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT HAD THE BALLOON BURST OVER HARRISON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI LESS THAN A MILE NORTH OF WEST HARRISON HIGH SCHOOL AT
AN ALTITUDE OF 106.3K FEET OR JUST OVER 20 MILES UP. AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.90
INCHES. SURFACE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW THIS MORNING WITH
DRYING ABOUT 200 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. ANOTHER 3-4C INVERSION
AROUND 820 MB. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...QUICKLY
BECAME SOUTHWEST AT 2000 FEET AND REMAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FLIGHT THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE. MAX
WIND WAS 61 KNOTS AT ABOUT 44K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL THIS MORNING
WAS AT 15.4K FEET...AND -20C AT 25K FEET. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE.
COVERAGE OF DENSE APPEARED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BY 8 TO 9AM...
UNFORTUNATELY AFTER MORNING RUSH HOUR. OTHERWISE...WARM FALL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY...JUST REACHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY LATE
AFTN/EVN. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WARM
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG CAP AND THERES JUST TOO
MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH IF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. SO HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED TO OFFSHORE WATERS WITH NUDGING
INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES AND EXTREME NWRN ZONES IN SW
MISSISSIPPI BY TMR MORNING. MEANWHILE...FCST HIGHS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE MOST PART AND SHOULD BE AROUND YSTRDY/S
OBSERVED MAX TEMPS. SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO MUCH COOLING OVERNIGHT EITHER
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOW TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY THE RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP WATER VALUES NOT EVEN
REACHING 1.5 INCHES AND CAPE BARELY UP TO 500 J/KG. LI/S MIGHT REACH
-2 AND COLUMN WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. SO SEVERE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT COULD BE TOUGH FOR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LIFT FROM THE FRONT ITSELF LIKELY NOT
GOING TO BE IMPRESSIVE EITHER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH AND RACING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST POPS
OF AROUND 30 PCT. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY...AS
WILL ANY SHOWERS LEFT WILL BE AS WELL. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF ABOUT 10
DEGREES THEN TOO AS CAA OCCURS.

MODELS INDICATING A REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS MOISTURE DOESNT HAVE
TIME TO RETURN BEFORE THE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
DROP TEMPS BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MIDWEEK. HAVE DROPPED
FCST TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS SATURDAY
PROBABLY WON/T REACH 70 AND POSSIBLY NOT EVEN MID 60S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MODIFYING AIRMASS
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY COMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.

MEFFER

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BRINGING OFFSHORE
FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
AROUND 10-15 KTS BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS A SECOND SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. /CAB/

AVIATION...FOG AND LOW CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 14Z. VSBYS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM 3-5SM TO AS LOW AS 1/4SM OR LESS AT MOST TERMINALS. CIGS WILL
DROP POSSIBLY AS LOW AS JUST 100FT AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL. AFTER
14Z...VSBYS AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  62  77  53 /  10  20  30  10
BTR  83  62  80  57 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  82  62  82  55 /  10  10  30  10
MSY  83  66  82  61 /  10  10  30  10
GPT  80  65  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
PQL  81  60  80  52 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 281323
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
823 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT HAD THE BALLOON BURST OVER HARRISON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI LESS THAN A MILE NORTH OF WEST HARRISON HIGH SCHOOL AT
AN ALTITUDE OF 106.3K FEET OR JUST OVER 20 MILES UP. AIRMASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.90
INCHES. SURFACE INVERSION WAS VERY SHALLOW THIS MORNING WITH
DRYING ABOUT 200 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. ANOTHER 3-4C INVERSION
AROUND 820 MB. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...QUICKLY
BECAME SOUTHWEST AT 2000 FEET AND REMAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FLIGHT THROUGH THE TROPOPAUSE. MAX
WIND WAS 61 KNOTS AT ABOUT 44K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL THIS MORNING
WAS AT 15.4K FEET...AND -20C AT 25K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN PLACE.
COVERAGE OF DENSE APPEARED TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN IMPROVING BY 8 TO 9AM...
UNFORTUNATELY AFTER MORNING RUSH HOUR. OTHERWISE...WARM FALL
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY...JUST REACHING INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY LATE
AFTN/EVN. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WARM
LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG CAP AND THERES JUST TOO
MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH IF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. SO HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED TO OFFSHORE WATERS WITH NUDGING
INTO THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTIES AND EXTREME NWRN ZONES IN SW
MISSISSIPPI BY TMR MORNING. MEANWHILE...FCST HIGHS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THE MOST PART AND SHOULD BE AROUND YSTRDY/S
OBSERVED MAX TEMPS. SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO MUCH COOLING OVERNIGHT EITHER
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOW TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY THE RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP WATER VALUES NOT EVEN
REACHING 1.5 INCHES AND CAPE BARELY UP TO 500 J/KG. LI/S MIGHT REACH
-2 AND COLUMN WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. SO SEVERE
WEATHER WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AND IT COULD BE TOUGH FOR EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LIFT FROM THE FRONT ITSELF LIKELY NOT
GOING TO BE IMPRESSIVE EITHER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE
NORTH AND RACING EAST BY WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST POPS
OF AROUND 30 PCT. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY...AS
WILL ANY SHOWERS LEFT WILL BE AS WELL. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF ABOUT 10
DEGREES THEN TOO AS CAA OCCURS.

MODELS INDICATING A REINFORCING STRONGER FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS MOISTURE DOESNT HAVE
TIME TO RETURN BEFORE THE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL
DROP TEMPS BY A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MIDWEEK. HAVE DROPPED
FCST TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS SATURDAY
PROBABLY WON/T REACH 70 AND POSSIBLY NOT EVEN MID 60S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MODIFYING AIRMASS
BY MONDAY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY COMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL.

MEFFER

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BRINGING OFFSHORE
FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TO
AROUND 10-15 KTS BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS A SECOND SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. /CAB/

AVIATION...FOG AND LOW CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH 14Z. VSBYS WILL RANGE ANYWHERE
FROM 3-5SM TO AS LOW AS 1/4SM OR LESS AT MOST TERMINALS. CIGS WILL
DROP POSSIBLY AS LOW AS JUST 100FT AT MOST TERMINALS AS WELL. AFTER
14Z...VSBYS AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  62  77  53 /  10  20  30  10
BTR  83  62  80  57 /  10  10  30  10
ASD  82  62  82  55 /  10  10  30  10
MSY  83  66  82  61 /  10  10  30  10
GPT  80  65  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
PQL  81  60  80  52 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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