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000
FXUS64 KLIX 011017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING QUICKLY ALONG WITH LIFT
OVER THE AREA AND THUS AFTER 6Z THE RADAR HAS BECOME FAR MORE
ACTIVE. VERY LGT RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WEST OF 55 AND SOUTH OF 10
AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE MRNG.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FCST AS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST ONE IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY TWO SEPARATE DISTURBANCES.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE WHEN THE BAJA LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION MID WEEK.

FIRST TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL SEE NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EVEN
A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA(MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG). AS
MENTIONED EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS AS BROAD LIFT HAS INCREASED OVER THE REGION. FIRST FOCUSED
DISTURBANCE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT HAS DETACHED FROM THE BAJA LOW
AND AT 8Z WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL TX. THIS WILL QUICKLY
PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MRNG AND LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 18Z. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO. AT THE SAME TIME AN H85 THETA E RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED/MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN/SERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE WHERE THE GREATEST COV AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
BUT BY MIDDAY SHRA WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BECOMING MORE SCT POSSIBLY
EVEN ISLTD WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA.

THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. AS MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A STRONG NRN
STREAM S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE. AT 8Z THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ENTERING THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME A SFC LOW WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER KS. THE S/W
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SE THROUGH THE DAY EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY PUSHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF WELL
BEFORE 12Z MON. ALL OF THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF TSRA...MAYBE
EVEN A STRONG ONE OR TWO...THE THREAT DOESNT LOOK GREAT BUT IT IS
NON-ZERO. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATLY LACKING...LL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
THE BETTER MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THAT SAID MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO SHABBY AT 6-6.5 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 50-60 KTS AND THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL FLOW AROUND
50-60KTS AS WELL. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GET A FEW
STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE PROVIDING A SMALL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AGAIN NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BUT THE RISK IS NON-ZERO.

RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. ONCE IT DOES MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE
INTO THE AREA. H925 TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND
0-3C. WHEN THIS IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC IT SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND THAT SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT AS BOTH SFC
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THAT SUPER
ADIABATIC SFC/SKIN LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. WITH TEMPS THAT LOW DURING
THE DAY IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SETTLE RIGHT OVER THE AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE MRNG. WITH THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...EVEN LL WINDS WILL
BE LGT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUIET LOW...POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MRNG LOWS TUE
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SWRN MS TO MID UPPER 30S ACROSS
COASTAL SELA. THE FEW THINGS THAT COULD KEEP THE REGION FROM COOLING
AS MUCH AS FCST WILL BE RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM SUN/SUN NIGHTS
RAINS ALONG WITH WEAK WAA IN THE LL ABV THE SFC. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY. THE GFS HAS NOW SLOWED UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN AND THE ECMWF IS NOW MUCH FASTER. THIS IS NOT
BODING WELL FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. THE GEM IS RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO AND THE GFES IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
TIMING WISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING BUT
HIGH THAT WE WILL GET SOME DECENT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE NIGHT AND
THU. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS AND
NOT LEAN IN FAVOR OF A SPECIFIC MDL.

THE MAIN PROTAGONIST WILL BE THE BAJA LOW EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST DOES THIS OCCUR AND WHAT ACTUALLY
KICKS THIS LOW OUT OF THE BAJA. LOOKING ACROSS THE PAC LARGE LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN THERE THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FCST BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PAC TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC
JUST WEST OF THE BAJA LOW. THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WHICH IS WHY THE
BAJA LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL MON NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS IS A
SLOW PROCESS AND B/C OF THAT I WANT TO LEAN TWRDS THE SLOWER GFS BUT
THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS. IN FACT THE GFS TRIES
TO KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE WED. EVEN THE
EURO WHEN IT WAS THE SLOWEST MDL HAD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS. THE BAJA
LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO TX LATE
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WED AND THU. AT
THE SFC STILL LOOKING FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NWRN GULF WITH THIS
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO FL LATE
THU/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH LGT
RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR WED AND/OR WED NIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSRA AS WE
WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR.

RAIN WILL COME TO AND END THU/THU NIGHT WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND NEXT
WEEKEND. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING AND
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER 00Z MONDAY. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS AS WINDS STILL WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
AS A SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELEVATE WINDS INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REALM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE ISSUED AT
SOME POINT THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT
ON WEDNESDAY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  37  46  28 /  80  80  10   0
BTR  72  39  48  31 /  80  70   0   0
ASD  71  43  50  32 /  60  70  10   0
MSY  73  45  50  37 /  60  70  10   0
GPT  68  44  51  33 /  70  70  10   0
PQL  69  45  51  31 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB AVIATION/MARINE: 13/MH






000
FXUS64 KLIX 011017
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING QUICKLY ALONG WITH LIFT
OVER THE AREA AND THUS AFTER 6Z THE RADAR HAS BECOME FAR MORE
ACTIVE. VERY LGT RAIN HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WEST OF 55 AND SOUTH OF 10
AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE MRNG.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE FCST AS WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST ONE IS
ALREADY OCCURRING AND IS CHARACTERIZED BY TWO SEPARATE DISTURBANCES.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE WHEN THE BAJA LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION MID WEEK.

FIRST TODAY AND TONIGHT WE WILL SEE NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EVEN
A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA(MAINLY LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG). AS
MENTIONED EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS AS BROAD LIFT HAS INCREASED OVER THE REGION. FIRST FOCUSED
DISTURBANCE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT HAS DETACHED FROM THE BAJA LOW
AND AT 8Z WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL TX. THIS WILL QUICKLY
PUSH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MRNG AND LIKELY BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 18Z. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO. AT THE SAME TIME AN H85 THETA E RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED/MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN/SERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE WHERE THE GREATEST COV AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
BUT BY MIDDAY SHRA WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF BECOMING MORE SCT POSSIBLY
EVEN ISLTD WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA.

THIS AFTN AND EVNG THE SECOND AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES WILL
IMPACT THE REGION. AS MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A STRONG NRN
STREAM S/W WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE. AT 8Z THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND ENTERING THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME A SFC LOW WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER KS. THE S/W
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SE THROUGH THE DAY EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN AND PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY PUSHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF WELL
BEFORE 12Z MON. ALL OF THIS WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF TSRA...MAYBE
EVEN A STRONG ONE OR TWO...THE THREAT DOESNT LOOK GREAT BUT IT IS
NON-ZERO. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATLY LACKING...LL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
THE BETTER MID/UPPER LVL SUPPORT WILL BE POST FRONTAL. THAT SAID MID
LVL LAPSE RATES ARENT TOO SHABBY AT 6-6.5 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 50-60 KTS AND THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL FLOW AROUND
50-60KTS AS WELL. THIS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO GET A FEW
STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE PROVIDING A SMALL RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AGAIN NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BUT THE RISK IS NON-ZERO.

RAIN WILL START TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. ONCE IT DOES MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE
INTO THE AREA. H925 TEMPS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND
0-3C. WHEN THIS IS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC IT SHOULD YIELD TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND THAT SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT AS BOTH SFC
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THAT SUPER
ADIABATIC SFC/SKIN LAYER FROM DEVELOPING. WITH TEMPS THAT LOW DURING
THE DAY IT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SETTLE RIGHT OVER THE AREA MON
NIGHT/TUE MRNG. WITH THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE...EVEN LL WINDS WILL
BE LGT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE QUIET LOW...POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MRNG LOWS TUE
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN SWRN MS TO MID UPPER 30S ACROSS
COASTAL SELA. THE FEW THINGS THAT COULD KEEP THE REGION FROM COOLING
AS MUCH AS FCST WILL BE RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE FROM SUN/SUN NIGHTS
RAINS ALONG WITH WEAK WAA IN THE LL ABV THE SFC. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY
AND CONTINUITY. THE GFS HAS NOW SLOWED UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN AND THE ECMWF IS NOW MUCH FASTER. THIS IS NOT
BODING WELL FOR CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST. THE GEM IS RIGHT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TWO AND THE GFES IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS
TIMING WISE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING BUT
HIGH THAT WE WILL GET SOME DECENT RAIN SOMETIME BETWEEN TUE NIGHT AND
THU. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS AND
NOT LEAN IN FAVOR OF A SPECIFIC MDL.

THE MAIN PROTAGONIST WILL BE THE BAJA LOW EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST DOES THIS OCCUR AND WHAT ACTUALLY
KICKS THIS LOW OUT OF THE BAJA. LOOKING ACROSS THE PAC LARGE LOW
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN THERE THROUGH
PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE FCST BUT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PAC TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC
JUST WEST OF THE BAJA LOW. THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME WHICH IS WHY THE
BAJA LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE UNTIL MON NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS IS A
SLOW PROCESS AND B/C OF THAT I WANT TO LEAN TWRDS THE SLOWER GFS BUT
THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS. IN FACT THE GFS TRIES
TO KEEP MUCH OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE WED. EVEN THE
EURO WHEN IT WAS THE SLOWEST MDL HAD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WED. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS. THE BAJA
LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO TX LATE
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WED AND THU. AT
THE SFC STILL LOOKING FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NWRN GULF WITH THIS
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND EVENTUALLY INTO FL LATE
THU/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUM TO WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH LGT
RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. BULK OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OCCUR WED AND/OR WED NIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY TSRA AS WE
WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR.

RAIN WILL COME TO AND END THU/THU NIGHT WITH A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W
DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND NEXT
WEEKEND. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING AND
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SHOULD
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES
INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER 00Z MONDAY. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS AS WINDS STILL WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
AS A SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY RELAX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELEVATE WINDS INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REALM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE ISSUED AT
SOME POINT THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT
ON WEDNESDAY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  37  46  28 /  80  80  10   0
BTR  72  39  48  31 /  80  70   0   0
ASD  71  43  50  32 /  60  70  10   0
MSY  73  45  50  37 /  60  70  10   0
GPT  68  44  51  33 /  70  70  10   0
PQL  69  45  51  31 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB AVIATION/MARINE: 13/MH





000
FXUS64 KLIX 010529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE DETERIORATING AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS CEILINGS LOWER
INTO THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICTS VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE
RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z
MONDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE DETERIORATING AT THE
TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS CEILINGS LOWER
INTO THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES AND RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
AND OCCASIONALLY RESTRICTS VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 3 MILE
RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 00Z
MONDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010042
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
642 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...00Z SOUNDING...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A 2 DEGREE INVERSION IS NOTED
AT 900MB...AND A DEEP DRY LAYER OF AIR EXTENDING FROM THIS
TEMPERATURE INVERSION UP TO 500MB IS NOTED. ABOVE 500MB...MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MOISTURE WAS NOTED AS A
CIRRUS DECK THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS
ALSO ALLOWED FOR HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES BELOW THE ELEVATED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED AROUND 10
DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOR A RISE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FROM 0.34 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 0.52 THIS EVENING. THESE
VALUES ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 312127
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...

RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA CUTOFF LOW WILL ALLOW
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE MUCH AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM THE DRY 0.34 FROM THIS MORNINGS LIX
SOUNDING TO 1.25-1.3 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS ARE EVEN MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE
MON. H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS
WOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND
RATHER LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
BAJA LOW WHICH BY LATE MONDAY WOULD HAVE DUG TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO
AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME TIME AND TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE OLD BAJA LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WED AND EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS NOW IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
STRONGER AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD AIR WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS BY DAYBREAK FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE OUTER
GULF WATERS AS WELL AS THE INNER GULF WATERS CLOSER TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THESE AREAS...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY BEGINNING SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

AVIATION/MARINE...95/DMM
REST OF DISCUSSION...22/TD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 312127
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...

RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA CUTOFF LOW WILL ALLOW
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE MUCH AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM THE DRY 0.34 FROM THIS MORNINGS LIX
SOUNDING TO 1.25-1.3 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS ARE EVEN MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE
MON. H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS
WOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND
RATHER LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
BAJA LOW WHICH BY LATE MONDAY WOULD HAVE DUG TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO
AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME TIME AND TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE OLD BAJA LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WED AND EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS NOW IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
STRONGER AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD AIR WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS BY DAYBREAK FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE OUTER
GULF WATERS AS WELL AS THE INNER GULF WATERS CLOSER TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THESE AREAS...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY BEGINNING SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

AVIATION/MARINE...95/DMM
REST OF DISCUSSION...22/TD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 312127
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...

RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF SLOW MOVING NORTHWEST MEXICO/BAJA CUTOFF LOW WILL ALLOW
THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE MUCH AS CLOUDS THICKEN.

A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL
BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUNDAY. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM THE DRY 0.34 FROM THIS MORNINGS LIX
SOUNDING TO 1.25-1.3 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN AND DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SHOWERS ARE EVEN MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE
MON. H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS
WOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND
RATHER LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE
BAJA LOW WHICH BY LATE MONDAY WOULD HAVE DUG TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BAJA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO
AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME TIME AND TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE OLD BAJA LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
WED AND EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS NOW IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM THAT MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS
STRONGER AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD AIR WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST BUT OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LOWER TO
MVFR LEVELS BY DAYBREAK FOR MOST TERMINALS. SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE OUTER
GULF WATERS AS WELL AS THE INNER GULF WATERS CLOSER TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THESE AREAS...MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NECESSARY BEGINNING SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED CLOSER TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND
WAVES TO EASE A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF. A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

AVIATION/MARINE...95/DMM
REST OF DISCUSSION...22/TD

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  69  39  46 /  30  80  70   0
BTR  51  72  41  48 /  40  80  60   0
ASD  52  72  44  51 /  20  70  60   0
MSY  56  74  47  50 /  30  60  50   0
GPT  51  69  44  52 /  20  70  60  10
PQL  49  70  45  51 /  20  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLIX 311255
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
655 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THIS
MORNING IT IS FROM THE SURFACE TO 3200 FEET OF 9 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THIS IS A LAYER WHERE WINDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. TOWARD THE TOP OF THIS DRY AIR ABOVE 14000 FEET...WINDS
SWITCH AND BECOME FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS IS BRINGING IN
MORE MOIST AIR FROM OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST ENTERING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 75 KNOTS WAS LOCATED NEAR
40700 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING LASTING 104 MINUTES.
THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING NEAR SHIP ISLAND 52 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 311255
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
655 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AND THIS
MORNING IT IS FROM THE SURFACE TO 3200 FEET OF 9 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THE LOW-LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY AND THIS IS A LAYER WHERE WINDS ARE
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. TOWARD THE TOP OF THIS DRY AIR ABOVE 14000 FEET...WINDS
SWITCH AND BECOME FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS IS BRINGING IN
MORE MOIST AIR FROM OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR WEST ENTERING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 75 KNOTS WAS LOCATED NEAR
40700 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING LASTING 104 MINUTES.
THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING NEAR SHIP ISLAND 52 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 311030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: GP







000
FXUS64 KLIX 311030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN MORE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAN WAS
EXPECTED IT HAS BEEN QUIET. THIS HAS HAD AN OBVIOUS HIT ON TEMPS
WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY GOING TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER
THAN FCST. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT WITH A WET FORECAST TOMORROW AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 9Z
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND WE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP FOR THE MORNING LOWS.

FOR THE ENTIRE FCST THE MAIN PROTAGONISTS WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND A PERSISTENT L/W TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE
ERN CONUS. THE FIRST 60 HRS OF THE FCST WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE
EFFECTS OF A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W THAT HAS DROPPED OUT OF
BC...CANADA AND INTO THE BIG SKY COUNTRY. THIS S/W WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT WITH THE SFC LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT WHILE
DRIVING A COLD FRONT TWRDS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF OF THE BAJA LOW AND MOVE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUN. THE COMBINED IMPACTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL LOWER HGHTS SOME 7 DM LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUN. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS
WE MOVE UNDER WEAK SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LVLS AND LL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SE. PWS WILL INCREASE FROM A PALTRY 0.28 (LAST
NIGHTS SNDG) TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FIRST SHOT OF SHRA MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS SUN AND
THROUGH MIDDAY OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH AN H85 THETA E
AXIS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTN RAIN WILL LIKELY TAPER
OFF SOME FOR THE SRN HALF AND START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTN AND EARLY IN THE EVNG. THIS WILL BE
IN RESPONSE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NRN STREAM S/W AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN
AFTN/EVNG AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK INTO THE AREA MON WITH A FAIRLY CHILLY DAY IN STORE MON.
H925 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -1C TO 3C ACROSS THE CWA AND THIS WOULD
YIELD HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE OF A BREEZE AND THIS COULD HELP
KEEPS THINGS MIXED LEADING TO HIGHS A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT GUI IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING AND HAVE NUDGED THINGS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER.

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE BUT THE EURO IS THE SLOWER MDL AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO
THE 12Z RUNS...AND THIS IS AT ODDS WITH THE 00Z RUN LAST NIGHT WHERE
IT WAS THE FASTER. THE GFS HAS BY FAR BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MDL
BUT THE EURO IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERNT SO A BLEND OF THE TWO WITH
A CONTINUED SLIGHT LEAN TWRDS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BETTER SOLN
HERE. THE GFS DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GEM AND THE GFES.

A QUIET AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE STORE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR...AND RATHER LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RAD COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE
COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR MRNG LOWS TUE WILL BE HOW
MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND THE RESULTING GROUND
MOISTURE LEFT IN PLACE. AFTER THAT THINGS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE. THE
SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THE BAJA LOW
WHICH BY LATE MON WOULD HAVE DUG TWRDS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SRN TX LATE
TUE NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN GULF AT THE SAME
TIME AND TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WED AND TWRDS FL THU. THE OLD
BAJA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WED AND WED NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WED AND INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT SHRA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS
TUE AFTN BUT LIKELY HOLD OFF FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FCST BUT OUTSIDE OF TUE
MORNING THEY WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUNDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6AM OVER THE
OPEN WATERS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SLACK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY
BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO 15 TO 20 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT FORWARD WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE LOCATIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST.  A STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME AS A RESULT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  50  68  40 /   0  30  70  60
BTR  62  51  70  42 /   0  30  60  50
ASD  61  52  71  45 /   0  20  60  50
MSY  62  56  73  48 /   0  20  60  50
GPT  59  51  68  45 /   0  20  60  50
PQL  60  49  69  46 /   0  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: GP






000
FXUS64 KLIX 310534
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  60  50  65 /   0   0  40  70
BTR  38  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  60
ASD  37  60  52  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  43  61  56  72 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  37  58  51  66 /   0   0  20  60
PQL  34  59  49  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 310534
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  60  50  65 /   0   0  40  70
BTR  38  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  60
ASD  37  60  52  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  43  61  56  72 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  37  58  51  66 /   0   0  20  60
PQL  34  59  49  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 310129
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
729 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS STABLE WITH TWO ELEVATED INVERSION
LAYERS AT 875 AND 525 MB. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY... THE DRIEST OF
THE WEEK WITH PW .28 INCHES. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE EVIDENT AT
UPPER LEVELS THOUGH DUE TO A CIRRUS DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 600 MB AND WESTERLY ABOVE.
FROM THE SFC TO 950 MB THE SOUNDING IS 10-15 F COOLER THAN 0Z
YESTERDAY.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. NEXT UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER ARIZONA.
CIRRUS IS FILTERING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 30 NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND 35 TO 40 SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PICKS
UP SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW...BUT LEAVES A REMNANT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST AREAS WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AND HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
MIDDAY ON MONDAY. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT
WOULD BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
BUT INSTABILITY RATHER LACKING.

GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EVEN ON FRONTAL TIMING...AND DO NOT PLAN TO ROAM FAR FROM
FORECAST TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. 35

LONG TERM...

ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY...DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GFS LIFTS UPPER LOW OUT OF MEXICO SOMEWHAT QUICKER...ABOUT
12 HOURS...THAN DOES THE ECMWF AS BOTH WEAKEN THE UPPER SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. THIS WOULD HAVE THE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA ON THE COLD AND WET SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT
THE MEX DATA INDICATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK
NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT EXTREMELY SO. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

NEXT 5 DAYS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED ON THE OPEN WATERS. OPEN
WATERS STILL EXPERIENCING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST CONTINUE THE HEADLINES
THROUGH 12Z TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE
FOR HEADLINES FOR A GOOD BIT OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. A BRIEF LULL
AHEAD BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE EASTERLIES
REQUIRE HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  35  60  50 /   0   0   0  40
BTR  62  38  61  52 /   0   0  10  40
ASD  62  37  60  52 /   0   0   0  30
MSY  62  43  61  56 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  62  37  58  51 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  62  34  59  49 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 310129
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
729 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS STABLE WITH TWO ELEVATED INVERSION
LAYERS AT 875 AND 525 MB. THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY... THE DRIEST OF
THE WEEK WITH PW .28 INCHES. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE EVIDENT AT
UPPER LEVELS THOUGH DUE TO A CIRRUS DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS ARE NORTHERLY FROM THE SFC TO 600 MB AND WESTERLY ABOVE.
FROM THE SFC TO 950 MB THE SOUNDING IS 10-15 F COOLER THAN 0Z
YESTERDAY.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. NEXT UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER ARIZONA.
CIRRUS IS FILTERING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 30 NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND 35 TO 40 SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PICKS
UP SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW...BUT LEAVES A REMNANT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST AREAS WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AND HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
MIDDAY ON MONDAY. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT
WOULD BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
BUT INSTABILITY RATHER LACKING.

GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EVEN ON FRONTAL TIMING...AND DO NOT PLAN TO ROAM FAR FROM
FORECAST TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. 35

LONG TERM...

ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY...DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GFS LIFTS UPPER LOW OUT OF MEXICO SOMEWHAT QUICKER...ABOUT
12 HOURS...THAN DOES THE ECMWF AS BOTH WEAKEN THE UPPER SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. THIS WOULD HAVE THE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA ON THE COLD AND WET SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT
THE MEX DATA INDICATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK
NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT EXTREMELY SO. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...

NEXT 5 DAYS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED ON THE OPEN WATERS. OPEN
WATERS STILL EXPERIENCING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST CONTINUE THE HEADLINES
THROUGH 12Z TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE
FOR HEADLINES FOR A GOOD BIT OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. A BRIEF LULL
AHEAD BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE EASTERLIES
REQUIRE HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  35  60  50 /   0   0   0  40
BTR  62  38  61  52 /   0   0  10  40
ASD  62  37  60  52 /   0   0   0  30
MSY  62  43  61  56 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  62  37  58  51 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  62  34  59  49 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 302107
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. NEXT UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER ARIZONA.
CIRRUS IS FILTERING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 30 NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND 35 TO 40 SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PICKS
UP SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW...BUT LEAVES A REMNANT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST AREAS WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AND HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
MIDDAY ON MONDAY. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT
WOULD BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
BUT INSTABILITY RATHER LACKING.

GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EVEN ON FRONTAL TIMING...AND DO NOT PLAN TO ROAM FAR FROM
FORECAST TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY...DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GFS LIFTS UPPER LOW OUT OF MEXICO SOMEWHAT QUICKER...ABOUT
12 HOURS...THAN DOES THE ECMWF AS BOTH WEAKEN THE UPPER SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. THIS WOULD HAVE THE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA ON THE COLD AND WET SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT
THE MEX DATA INDICATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK
NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT EXTREMELY SO. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

NEXT 5 DAYS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED ON THE OPEN WATERS. OPEN
WATERS STILL EXPERIENCING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST CONTINUE THE HEADLINES
THROUGH 12Z TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE
FOR HEADLINES FOR A GOOD BIT OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. A BRIEF LULL
AHEAD BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE EASTERLIES
REQUIRE HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  60  50  65 /   0   0  40  70
BTR  38  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  60
ASD  37  60  52  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  43  61  56  72 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  37  58  51  66 /   0   0  20  60
PQL  34  59  49  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 302107
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
307 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. NEXT UPPER LOW IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER ARIZONA.
CIRRUS IS FILTERING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 30 NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND 35 TO 40 SOUTH OF THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO RETURN. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PICKS
UP SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW...BUT LEAVES A REMNANT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A LITTLE
LIGHT RAIN BREAK OUT AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOST AREAS WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ON
SUNDAY AND HIGH CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY
MIDDAY ON MONDAY. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT
WOULD BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
BUT INSTABILITY RATHER LACKING.

GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...EVEN ON FRONTAL TIMING...AND DO NOT PLAN TO ROAM FAR FROM
FORECAST TEMPERATURE NUMBERS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

ONCE WE GET PAST MONDAY...DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GFS LIFTS UPPER LOW OUT OF MEXICO SOMEWHAT QUICKER...ABOUT
12 HOURS...THAN DOES THE ECMWF AS BOTH WEAKEN THE UPPER SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD TO
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. THIS WOULD HAVE THE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA ON THE COLD AND WET SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES WAS USED...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT
WARMER ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT
THE MEX DATA INDICATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALL WEEK
NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT EXTREMELY SO. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

NEXT 5 DAYS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED ON THE OPEN WATERS. OPEN
WATERS STILL EXPERIENCING EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST CONTINUE THE HEADLINES
THROUGH 12Z TO ELIMINATE CONFUSION. CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE
FOR HEADLINES FOR A GOOD BIT OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. A BRIEF LULL
AHEAD BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE EASTERLIES
REQUIRE HEADLINES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  60  50  65 /   0   0  40  70
BTR  38  61  52  68 /   0  10  40  60
ASD  37  60  52  68 /   0   0  30  50
MSY  43  61  56  72 /   0  10  30  50
GPT  37  58  51  66 /   0   0  20  60
PQL  34  59  49  67 /   0   0  20  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 301305
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
705 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ELEVATED TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 6 DEGREES CELSIUS BEGINS AROUND
1500 FEET ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING. THE COLUMN IS RATHER
DRY...THOUGH IT IS A BIT MORE MOIST BETWEEN 20000 AND 29000
FEET. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA AND THIS MAY BE THE HEIGHT THAT THEY ARE LOCATED. WINDS FROM
THE SURFACE TO 4000 FEET WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH...THEN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 93 KNOTS WAS LOCATED NEAR 40400
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE 115 MINUTE FLIGHT THIS MORNING
THAT TRAVELED 78 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE AND BURST AT A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND EAST OF BRETON NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...OUR FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE N AND NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN NICELY BEHIND IT WITH AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES IN ABOUT
3 HRS. ONE THING TO NOTE...MOST IF NOT ALL SITES HAVE LIKELY SEEN
THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY ALREADY AS EVERYONE AT 6Z WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LOOK FOR A MOSTLY QUIET FCST FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HRS. NEWLY
ESTABLISHED NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY BUT OUR AIRMASS WILL NOT GET
AS MUCH OF A SRN PUSH AND ACTUALLY START TO NUDGE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6-8C TODAY LEADING TO A RATHER
COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. AGAIN THE
OFFICIAL HIGH FOR THE CALENDAR DAY HAS LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AS CAA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL WARM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES.
THIS WILL FEEL COLD WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY AS WE WILL BE
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT STARTS TO OCCUR AND OUR SFC HIGH PUSHES
INTO APPALACHIA AND EVENTUALLY TWRDS THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST
LL TEMPS WILL START TO SLOWLY REBOUND. MOISTURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY
RECOVER. THE BULK OF THE CHANGES THOUGH WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE BAJA WILL SLOWLY NUDGE TWRDS MEXICO SAT NIGHT
BEFORE DIGGING ONCE AGAIN TWRDS THE SRN BAJA SUN NIGHT. THIS ALONG
WITH ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN SUN. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND AS THIS NRN STREAM S/W DROPS SE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IT WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TWRDS THE REGION. THIS FRONT...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LOWERING HGHTS IN THE MID LVLS ALONG WITH TAPPING INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN AMPLE SUPPORT FOR NUM
SHRA SUN. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW TSRA SUN AFTN AS
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE RRQ OF THE JET
TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG SUN BUT WE SHOULD SEE IT SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. /CAB/

LONG TERM...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FCST AS THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE PRETTY LARGE STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
TUE. EURO HAS HAD THE LARGEST SHIFT FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN BUT IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT MODEL TIMING WISE BUT IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TO TWRDS THE GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS MOS ALONG
WITH THE GFES AND GEM. THE EURO AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER COLD MDL BUT WILL CLOSELY WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE MDLS
TREND.

ERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED SUN NIGHT AND WILL SEND OUR
SECOND COLD FRONT AND AIRMASS INTO THE AREA MON. THIS WILL KEEP US
COOL AND DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
SUN NIGHT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF. THIS OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL
BECOME ACTIVATED AS THE OLD CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA IS FINALLY
LIFTING OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO TX LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
SWRN GULF TUE. AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO TX TUE NIGHT IT WILL
OPEN UP AND PUT THE REGION UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND START LIFTING TO THE NE TWRDS OUR
CWA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES WED. AS PREV FCSTER
MENTIONED WE ARE STILL ON THE COLD WET SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY TSRA.

THIRD RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SFC LOW
BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS TO HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. THE EURO
HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT IS ALSO AT ODDS
WITH ITS OWN MOS WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE RAW MDL. THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL USE A
BLEND WITH A LEAN TWRDS THE GFS. /CAB/

AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...NOW SOUTH OF
MSY AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING HUM SHORTLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY AFTER FROPA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...STEADILY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND START PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RAMPING
UP QUICKLY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITION DURATION WILL BE QUITE SHORT...
ENDING BY AROUND NOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. ONLY OTHER CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS ADDING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE COMING IN BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD
BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE UPPER 20S AND A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP DURATION ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE LEAST CAN BE EXPECTED AS IT NEARS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  34  60  50 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  60  38  61  52 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  60  36  60  53 /   0   0   0  30
MSY  59  42  61  56 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  59  36  58  51 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  59  33  60  50 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 301305
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
705 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ELEVATED TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 6 DEGREES CELSIUS BEGINS AROUND
1500 FEET ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING. THE COLUMN IS RATHER
DRY...THOUGH IT IS A BIT MORE MOIST BETWEEN 20000 AND 29000
FEET. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE INTO OUR
AREA AND THIS MAY BE THE HEIGHT THAT THEY ARE LOCATED. WINDS FROM
THE SURFACE TO 4000 FEET WERE FROM THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH...THEN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 93 KNOTS WAS LOCATED NEAR 40400
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE 115 MINUTE FLIGHT THIS MORNING
THAT TRAVELED 78 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE AND BURST AT A
HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND EAST OF BRETON NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...OUR FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE N AND NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN NICELY BEHIND IT WITH AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES IN ABOUT
3 HRS. ONE THING TO NOTE...MOST IF NOT ALL SITES HAVE LIKELY SEEN
THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY ALREADY AS EVERYONE AT 6Z WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LOOK FOR A MOSTLY QUIET FCST FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HRS. NEWLY
ESTABLISHED NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY BUT OUR AIRMASS WILL NOT GET
AS MUCH OF A SRN PUSH AND ACTUALLY START TO NUDGE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6-8C TODAY LEADING TO A RATHER
COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. AGAIN THE
OFFICIAL HIGH FOR THE CALENDAR DAY HAS LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AS CAA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL WARM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES.
THIS WILL FEEL COLD WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY AS WE WILL BE
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT STARTS TO OCCUR AND OUR SFC HIGH PUSHES
INTO APPALACHIA AND EVENTUALLY TWRDS THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST
LL TEMPS WILL START TO SLOWLY REBOUND. MOISTURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY
RECOVER. THE BULK OF THE CHANGES THOUGH WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE BAJA WILL SLOWLY NUDGE TWRDS MEXICO SAT NIGHT
BEFORE DIGGING ONCE AGAIN TWRDS THE SRN BAJA SUN NIGHT. THIS ALONG
WITH ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN SUN. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND AS THIS NRN STREAM S/W DROPS SE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IT WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TWRDS THE REGION. THIS FRONT...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LOWERING HGHTS IN THE MID LVLS ALONG WITH TAPPING INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN AMPLE SUPPORT FOR NUM
SHRA SUN. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW TSRA SUN AFTN AS
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE RRQ OF THE JET
TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG SUN BUT WE SHOULD SEE IT SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. /CAB/

LONG TERM...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FCST AS THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE PRETTY LARGE STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
TUE. EURO HAS HAD THE LARGEST SHIFT FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN BUT IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT MODEL TIMING WISE BUT IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TO TWRDS THE GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS MOS ALONG
WITH THE GFES AND GEM. THE EURO AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER COLD MDL BUT WILL CLOSELY WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE MDLS
TREND.

ERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED SUN NIGHT AND WILL SEND OUR
SECOND COLD FRONT AND AIRMASS INTO THE AREA MON. THIS WILL KEEP US
COOL AND DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
SUN NIGHT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF. THIS OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL
BECOME ACTIVATED AS THE OLD CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA IS FINALLY
LIFTING OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO TX LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
SWRN GULF TUE. AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO TX TUE NIGHT IT WILL
OPEN UP AND PUT THE REGION UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND START LIFTING TO THE NE TWRDS OUR
CWA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES WED. AS PREV FCSTER
MENTIONED WE ARE STILL ON THE COLD WET SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY TSRA.

THIRD RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SFC LOW
BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS TO HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. THE EURO
HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT IS ALSO AT ODDS
WITH ITS OWN MOS WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE RAW MDL. THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL USE A
BLEND WITH A LEAN TWRDS THE GFS. /CAB/

AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...NOW SOUTH OF
MSY AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING HUM SHORTLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY AFTER FROPA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...STEADILY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND START PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RAMPING
UP QUICKLY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITION DURATION WILL BE QUITE SHORT...
ENDING BY AROUND NOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. ONLY OTHER CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS ADDING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE COMING IN BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD
BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE UPPER 20S AND A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP DURATION ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE LEAST CAN BE EXPECTED AS IT NEARS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  34  60  50 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  60  38  61  52 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  60  36  60  53 /   0   0   0  30
MSY  59  42  61  56 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  59  36  58  51 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  59  33  60  50 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 301006
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...OUR FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE N AND NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN NICELY BEHIND IT WITH AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES IN ABOUT
3 HRS. ONE THING TO NOTE...MOST IF NOT ALL SITES HAVE LIKELY SEEN
THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY ALREADY AS EVERYONE AT 6Z WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LOOK FOR A MOSTLY QUIET FCST FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HRS. NEWLY
ESTABLISHED NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY BUT OUR AIRMASS WILL NOT GET
AS MUCH OF A SRN PUSH AND ACTUALLY START TO NUDGE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6-8C TODAY LEADING TO A RATHER
COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. AGAIN THE
OFFICIAL HIGH FOR THE CALENDAR DAY HAS LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AS CAA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL WARM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES.
THIS WILL FEEL COLD WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY AS WE WILL BE
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT STARTS TO OCCUR AND OUR SFC HIGH PUSHES
INTO APPALACHIA AND EVENTUALLY TWRDS THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST
LL TEMPS WILL START TO SLOWLY REBOUND. MOISTURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY
RECOVER. THE BULK OF THE CHANGES THOUGH WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE BAJA WILL SLOWLY NUDGE TWRDS MEXICO SAT NIGHT
BEFORE DIGGING ONCE AGAIN TWRDS THE SRN BAJA SUN NIGHT. THIS ALONG
WITH ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN SUN. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND AS THIS NRN STREAM S/W DROPS SE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IT WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TWRDS THE REGION. THIS FRONT...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LOWERING HGHTS IN THE MID LVLS ALONG WITH TAPPING INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN AMPLE SUPPORT FOR NUM
SHRA SUN. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW TSRA SUN AFTN AS
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE RRQ OF THE JET
TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG SUN BUT WE SHOULD SEE IT SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FCST AS THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE PRETTY LARGE STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
TUE. EURO HAS HAD THE LARGEST SHIFT FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN BUT IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT MODEL TIMING WISE BUT IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TO TWRDS THE GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS MOS ALONG
WITH THE GFES AND GEM. THE EURO AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER COLD MDL BUT WILL CLOSELY WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE MDLS
TREND.

ERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED SUN NIGHT AND WILL SEND OUR
SECOND COLD FRONT AND AIRMASS INTO THE AREA MON. THIS WILL KEEP US
COOL AND DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
SUN NIGHT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF. THIS OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL
BECOME ACTIVATED AS THE OLD CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA IS FINALLY
LIFTING OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO TX LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
SWRN GULF TUE. AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO TX TUE NIGHT IT WILL
OPEN UP AND PUT THE REGION UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND START LIFTING TO THE NE TWRDS OUR
CWA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES WED. AS PREV FCSTER
MENTIONED WE ARE STILL ON THE COLD WET SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY TSRA.

THIRD RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SFC LOW
BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS TO HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. THE EURO
HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT IS ALSO AT ODDS
WITH ITS OWN MOS WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE RAW MDL. THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL USE A
BLEND WITH A LEAN TWRDS THE GFS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...NOW SOUTH OF
MSY AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING HUM SHORTLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY AFTER FROPA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...STEADILY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND START PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RAMPING
UP QUICKLY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITION DURATION WILL BE QUITE SHORT...
ENDING BY AROUND NOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. ONLY OTHER CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS ADDING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE COMING IN BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD
BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE UPPER 20S AND A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP DURATION ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE LEAST CAN BE EXPECTED AS IT NEARS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  34  60  50 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  60  38  61  52 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  60  36  60  53 /   0   0   0  30
MSY  59  42  61  56 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  59  36  58  51 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  59  33  60  50 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
MARINE/AVIATION: MEFFER





000
FXUS64 KLIX 301006
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...OUR FIRST COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE N AND NW OVERNIGHT. TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN NICELY BEHIND IT WITH AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES IN ABOUT
3 HRS. ONE THING TO NOTE...MOST IF NOT ALL SITES HAVE LIKELY SEEN
THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY ALREADY AS EVERYONE AT 6Z WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LOOK FOR A MOSTLY QUIET FCST FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HRS. NEWLY
ESTABLISHED NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY BUT OUR AIRMASS WILL NOT GET
AS MUCH OF A SRN PUSH AND ACTUALLY START TO NUDGE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 6-8C TODAY LEADING TO A RATHER
COLD DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. AGAIN THE
OFFICIAL HIGH FOR THE CALENDAR DAY HAS LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM AS CAA WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL WARM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES.
THIS WILL FEEL COLD WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY AS WE WILL BE
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT AS RIDGING ALOFT STARTS TO OCCUR AND OUR SFC HIGH PUSHES
INTO APPALACHIA AND EVENTUALLY TWRDS THE MID AND SERN ATLANTIC COAST
LL TEMPS WILL START TO SLOWLY REBOUND. MOISTURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY
RECOVER. THE BULK OF THE CHANGES THOUGH WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT AND
MORE SO ON SUN AND INTO SUN NIGHT. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE BAJA WILL SLOWLY NUDGE TWRDS MEXICO SAT NIGHT
BEFORE DIGGING ONCE AGAIN TWRDS THE SRN BAJA SUN NIGHT. THIS ALONG
WITH ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN SUN. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AND AS THIS NRN STREAM S/W DROPS SE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IT WILL SEND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TWRDS THE REGION. THIS FRONT...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LOWERING HGHTS IN THE MID LVLS ALONG WITH TAPPING INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN AMPLE SUPPORT FOR NUM
SHRA SUN. THERE IS EVEN A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW TSRA SUN AFTN AS
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND THE RRQ OF THE JET
TO WORK WITH.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG SUN BUT WE SHOULD SEE IT SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FCST AS THE EURO AND
GFS HAVE PRETTY LARGE STRENGTH AND TIMING ISSUES BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
TUE. EURO HAS HAD THE LARGEST SHIFT FROM LAST NIGHTS RUN BUT IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE MORE
CONSISTENT MODEL TIMING WISE BUT IS WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE MDLS WITH A
SLIGHT LEAN TO TWRDS THE GFS WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS MOS ALONG
WITH THE GFES AND GEM. THE EURO AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE THE
OUTLIER COLD MDL BUT WILL CLOSELY WATCH TO SEE WHERE THE MDLS
TREND.

ERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED SUN NIGHT AND WILL SEND OUR
SECOND COLD FRONT AND AIRMASS INTO THE AREA MON. THIS WILL KEEP US
COOL AND DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
SUN NIGHT WILL STALL OVER THE GULF. THIS OLD FRONTAL ZONE WILL
BECOME ACTIVATED AS THE OLD CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA IS FINALLY
LIFTING OUT ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO TX LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
SWRN GULF TUE. AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS INTO TX TUE NIGHT IT WILL
OPEN UP AND PUT THE REGION UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT. THE DEVELOPING SFC
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND START LIFTING TO THE NE TWRDS OUR
CWA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES WED. AS PREV FCSTER
MENTIONED WE ARE STILL ON THE COLD WET SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY TSRA.

THIRD RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SFC LOW
BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS TO HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. THE EURO
HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT IS ALSO AT ODDS
WITH ITS OWN MOS WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE RAW MDL. THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SO AS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL USE A
BLEND WITH A LEAN TWRDS THE GFS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...NOW SOUTH OF
MSY AND SHOULD BE APPROACHING HUM SHORTLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY AFTER FROPA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND...STEADILY PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND START PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RAMPING
UP QUICKLY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITION DURATION WILL BE QUITE SHORT...
ENDING BY AROUND NOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. ONLY OTHER CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST TODAY IS ADDING
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.

A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE COMING IN BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD
BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE UPPER 20S AND A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP DURATION ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
IN THE WESTERN GULF AND TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
EXERCISE CAUTION AT THE LEAST CAN BE EXPECTED AS IT NEARS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  34  60  50 /   0   0   0  30
BTR  60  38  61  52 /   0   0  10  30
ASD  60  36  60  53 /   0   0   0  30
MSY  59  42  61  56 /   0   0  10  30
GPT  59  36  58  51 /   0   0   0  20
PQL  59  33  60  50 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
MARINE/AVIATION: MEFFER






000
FXUS64 KLIX 300538
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT WILL IMPACT
KHUM PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY AFTER
FROPA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  45  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  49  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  46  59  39  58 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  46  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 300538
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT WILL IMPACT
KHUM PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY AFTER
FROPA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  45  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  49  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  46  59  39  58 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  46  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 300143
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS WESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 500 MB. A JET MAX OF 90 KTS IS
PRESENT AT 180 MB. THERE IS AN ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
550 MB RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR THE SFC THE PROFILE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN 0Z YESTERDAY. PW IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AT .84 INCHES.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  42  58  36 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  45  60  40 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  70  45  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  72  49  58  44 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  67  46  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  68  46  59  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 300143
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS WESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 500 MB. A JET MAX OF 90 KTS IS
PRESENT AT 180 MB. THERE IS AN ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
550 MB RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR THE SFC THE PROFILE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN 0Z YESTERDAY. PW IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AT .84 INCHES.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  42  58  36 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  45  60  40 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  70  45  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  72  49  58  44 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  67  46  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  68  46  59  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 292157
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  45  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  49  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  46  59  39  58 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  46  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR








000
FXUS64 KLIX 292157
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  45  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  49  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  46  59  39  58 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  46  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLIX 291341
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 9 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 FEET THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. AIR REMAINS
A BIT DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 0.56 INCHES. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...THEY
WERE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. WINDS ARE
THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 3500 FEET...THEN MAINLY FROM THE
WEST UP TO ABOUT 22500 FEET AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE MORNING FLIGHT THAT LASTED
102 MINUTES AND BURST SOUTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 48 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...QUIET COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8Z.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS. WEAK NW
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED
AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TWRDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT AHEAD OF IT LOOK FOR A WARM DAY. H925
TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MID 70S IN A FEW
AREAS.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE
IN. IN ADDITION DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 6-8C WHICH COULD MEAN AS MUCH
AS A 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR A HIGH ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER A RIDGE WHILE A LARGE CLOSED
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STILL BE OVER THE BAJA BY SUN MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL PUT
US UNDER WEAK SW FLOW. IN ADDITION ON SUN A WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN SUN. WILL NOT
MENTION TSRA AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLE
AGREEMENT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE IT FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE MDLS.

SUN NIGHT OUR LITTLE SFC WAVE/LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OUT TO THE NE
WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE MON AS OUR COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ANOTHER COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY GETS
KICKED OUT OF THE BAJA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MDLS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST ON TUE AND THE EURO HOLDING OFF MORE TWRDS WED. ONCE THIS
OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUE NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON WED. /CAB/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW
TERMINALS WEST OF HDC COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT
SUNRISE.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY VEERING FROM ENE TO SSE SINCE SUNSET
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES
TO HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT AS WINDS
JUMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEADLINE DROPPING OFF BY
NOON FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED WINDS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  44  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  44  59  39  60 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  48  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  44  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 291341
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 9 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 FEET THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. AIR REMAINS
A BIT DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 0.56 INCHES. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...THEY
WERE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. WINDS ARE
THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 3500 FEET...THEN MAINLY FROM THE
WEST UP TO ABOUT 22500 FEET AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE MORNING FLIGHT THAT LASTED
102 MINUTES AND BURST SOUTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 48 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...QUIET COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8Z.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS. WEAK NW
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED
AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TWRDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT AHEAD OF IT LOOK FOR A WARM DAY. H925
TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MID 70S IN A FEW
AREAS.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE
IN. IN ADDITION DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 6-8C WHICH COULD MEAN AS MUCH
AS A 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR A HIGH ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER A RIDGE WHILE A LARGE CLOSED
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STILL BE OVER THE BAJA BY SUN MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL PUT
US UNDER WEAK SW FLOW. IN ADDITION ON SUN A WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN SUN. WILL NOT
MENTION TSRA AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLE
AGREEMENT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE IT FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE MDLS.

SUN NIGHT OUR LITTLE SFC WAVE/LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OUT TO THE NE
WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE MON AS OUR COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ANOTHER COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY GETS
KICKED OUT OF THE BAJA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MDLS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST ON TUE AND THE EURO HOLDING OFF MORE TWRDS WED. ONCE THIS
OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUE NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON WED. /CAB/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW
TERMINALS WEST OF HDC COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT
SUNRISE.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY VEERING FROM ENE TO SSE SINCE SUNSET
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES
TO HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT AS WINDS
JUMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEADLINE DROPPING OFF BY
NOON FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED WINDS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  44  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  44  59  39  60 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  48  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  44  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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