000
FXUS64 KLIX 241450 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
950 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING IS MODERATELY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WITH PW OF 1.55
INCHES...SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2914 J/KG AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
1705 J/KG. MOISTURE PROFILE IN SOUNDING IS MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED
IN LOW LEVELS UP TO 850 MB AND IN MID LEVELS FROM 600-500 MB.
MODIFIED SOUNDING AT KBTR AROUND 20Z YIELDS A HIGHER MIXED LAYER
CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG. WIND PROFILE IS LIGHT NORTHERLY /10 KNOTS OR
LESS/ UP TO 12KFT...THEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT STRONGER SPEEDS
ABOVE 12KFT WITH A PEAK WIND AROUND 60 KT AT 44 KFT. WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL IS MODERATE TODAY...SO IF MORE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLULAR
CONVECTION CAN FORM THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS REQUIRING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHT
IS AROUND 11 KFT...SO SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
HAVE ELEVATED HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATING
DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
LITTLE FANFARE ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
THE MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE DURING THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER... SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION AS THIS
DISTURBANCE PASSES. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH THE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT
IN A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK...BUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE IN
THE WEEK. 11
AVIATION...
LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM
TEXAS CONVECTION...HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG AT
LOCAL TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN 3 TO 4
DEGREES AT MOST SITES...EXPECT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS NEAR THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY NEAR KMCB...WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND NOT
WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 35
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE OPEN
WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED OVER THE SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE RATHER QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED BY MID WEEK. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 56 85 56 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 89 64 87 61 / 20 10 0 0
ASD 88 60 85 59 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 88 68 85 65 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 88 61 84 61 / 10 10 0 0
PQL 88 57 85 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 240841
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
DOMINATING DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH LITTLE FANFARE ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE THE MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE DURING THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH THE WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK...BUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM
TEXAS CONVECTION...HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG AT
LOCAL TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN 3 TO 4
DEGREES AT MOST SITES...EXPECT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS NEAR THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY NEAR KMCB...WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND NOT
WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 35
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE OPEN
WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED OVER THE SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE RATHER QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED BY MID WEEK. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 56 85 56 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 89 64 87 61 / 20 10 0 0
ASD 88 60 85 59 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 88 68 85 65 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 88 61 84 61 / 10 10 0 0
PQL 88 57 85 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 240115
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING. RATHER TYPICAL DRY ADIABATIC
SOUNDING FOR NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SOMEWHAT
DRY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOIST LAYERS AS THE WETTEST
LEVEL IS A 4 DEGREE SPREAD AT 916 MB / 2800 FT BUT DEPARTS QUICKLY
ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.26 INCHES BUT SURFACE BASED POSITIVE
AREA IS 3561 J/KG WITH LOW HELICITY OF ONLY 21 M2/S2. STORM MOTION
353/8 KT LOOKS WELL ALIGNED WITH RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE SW 5 KTS
SURFACE TO ABOUT 1800 FT...VEERING NW-N 5-15 KT TO 15KFT...THEN
BACKING TO NW 20-70 KT THROUGH TROPOPAUSE AND LOWER STRATOSPHERE.
PEAK WIND 285/70 KT AT 41.3KFT. BALLOON OVER-ACHIEVED BY REACHING
A RARE 6.4 MB...34.112 KM / 111916 FT / 21.2 MI AND BURST 25 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAUNCH OVER UPPER LAKE BORGNE ABOUT 1 MILE WEST OF
THE UPPER TIP OF BILOXI MARSH...BUT NOT BEFORE REACHING WAVELAND
MS PRIOR TO WESTWARD DRIFT ON EASTERLY WINDS IN UPPER
STRATOSPHERE. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR WEDGE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE
COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTH SHORE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ON TAP WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE. SOME OF THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO
SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EVEN THEN...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED.
7/ARM
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATER INCLUSION IN TAFS...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS KMCB AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND AREAS ALONG I-12/10 AROUND MIDDAY TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AND LOW CIGS IN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY AT SOME AIRPORTS. 22/TD
MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL PRODUCE A STEADY
NORTHEAST BREEZE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUNDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IN TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...HIGHER SWELLS ARE EXPECTED BY WEEKS
END DUE TO THE LONG FETCH.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 86 56 85 / 20 10 0 0
BTR 69 89 64 87 / 20 20 10 0
ASD 68 88 60 84 / 20 10 0 0
MSY 71 88 68 85 / 20 20 10 0
GPT 69 89 61 83 / 20 10 0 0
PQL 67 88 57 84 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 232018
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
318 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR WEDGE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE
COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTH SHORE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ON TAP WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE. SOME OF THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO
SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EVEN THEN...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED.
7/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATER INCLUSION IN TAFS...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS KMCB AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND AREAS ALONG I-12/10 AROUND MIDDAY TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AND LOW CIGS IN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY AT SOME AIRPORTS. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL PRODUCE A STEADY
NORTHEAST BREEZE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUNDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IN TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...HIGHER SWELLS ARE EXPECTED BY WEEKS
END DUE TO THE LONG FETCH.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 86 56 85 / 20 10 0 0
BTR 69 89 64 87 / 20 20 10 0
ASD 68 88 60 84 / 20 10 0 0
MSY 71 88 68 85 / 20 20 10 0
GPT 69 89 61 83 / 20 10 0 0
PQL 67 88 57 84 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 231816
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
116 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATER INCLUSION IN TAFS...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS KMCB AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND AREAS ALONG I-12/10 AROUND MIDDAY TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AND LOW CIGS IN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY AT SOME AIRPORTS. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS BURNED OFF...SO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD START TO FALL IN LINE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. 12Z LIX SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HOWEVER THE RISK OF
WET MICROBURSTS /STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS/ TODAY IS LOW. 22/TD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND BE REINFORCED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A DELIGHTFUL LATE MAY WEEKEND
FEATURING COOLER NIGHTS AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN A FEW AREAS.
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS AND DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN BY MID WEEK COULD YIELD VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. 11
AVIATION...
CURRENTLY...ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHUM
WHICH IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUD CURVES ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS...LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35
MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
24-36 HOURS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL PROBABLY NEED HEADLINES IN THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
TO NECESSITATE HEADLINES AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN WATERS. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 65 87 58 / 10 20 10 0
BTR 90 69 89 63 / 10 20 20 10
ASD 89 68 89 61 / 10 20 10 0
MSY 88 72 89 67 / 10 20 20 10
GPT 87 69 89 60 / 10 20 10 0
PQL 89 66 88 58 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 231600 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS BURNED OFF...SO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD START TO FALL IN LINE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. 12Z LIX SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HOWEVER THE RISK OF
WET MICROBURSTS /STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS/ TODAY IS LOW. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND BE REINFORCED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A DELIGHTFUL LATE MAY WEEKEND
FEATURING COOLER NIGHTS AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN A FEW AREAS.
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS AND DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN BY MID WEEK COULD YIELD VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. 11
AVIATION...
CURRENTLY...ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHUM
WHICH IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUD CURVES ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS...LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35
MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
24-36 HOURS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL PROBABLY NEED HEADLINES IN THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
TO NECESSITATE HEADLINES AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN WATERS. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 65 87 58 / 10 20 10 10
BTR 90 69 89 63 / 10 20 20 10
ASD 89 68 89 61 / 10 20 10 10
MSY 88 72 89 67 / 10 10 20 10
GPT 87 69 89 60 / 10 20 10 10
PQL 89 66 88 58 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 230850
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND BE REINFORCED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A DELIGHTFUL LATE MAY WEEKEND
FEATURING COOLER NIGHTS AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN A FEW AREAS.
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS AND DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN BY MID WEEK COULD YIELD VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY...ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHUM
WHICH IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUD CURVES ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS...LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
24-36 HOURS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL PROBABLY NEED HEADLINES IN THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
TO NECESSITATE HEADLINES AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN WATERS. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 65 87 58 / 20 20 10 10
BTR 90 69 89 63 / 20 20 20 10
ASD 89 68 89 61 / 20 20 10 10
MSY 88 72 89 67 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 87 69 89 60 / 20 20 10 10
PQL 89 66 88 58 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 230123
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
823 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH FLIGHT THIS EVENING. DESPITE AIR MASS BEING
WORKED OVER BY QLCS THIS MORNING...MOISTURE RECOVERED WITH 5
DEGREE OR LESS SPREAD FROM SURFACE TO 630 MB...RESIDUAL
ALTOCUMULUS DECK AT 11 KFT WITH SATURATED LAYER INDICATED UNDER
ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 630 MB TO 560 MB...THEN A DRY
COLUMN ALOFT. WINDS CALM AT SURFACE QUICKLY TURN SOUTHWEST 15-20KT
TO 10KFT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST INTO LOWER STRATOSPHERE 20-60KT.
PEAK WIND 265/56KT AT 43.3KFT. BALLOON TERMINATED AT 33239M/109051
FT OR 20.6 MILES OVER WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR BAYOU LACROIX.
THE FLIGHT DID REACH AS FAR EAST AS HOLLYWOOD CASINO AREA 26 MILES
DOWNRANGE BEFORE EASTERLY WINDS IN UPPER STRATOSPHERE BROUGHT THE
BALLOON WITHIN 12 MILES OF LAUNCH SITE. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN. THROUGH THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT TERREBONNE AND
POSSIBLY LAFOURCHE PARISHES BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A TROF WILL BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEDGE OR OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE PLEASANT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHSHORE.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE QUITE POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL. MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE AFTERNOON
SUMMER LIKE STORM BY MID WEEK.
7/ARM
AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SE LA AND S MS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LOW CIGS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT NEARLY ALL TAF SITES FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS...OF A PERIOD OF
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 65 90 65 / 70 10 20 20
BTR 86 68 91 69 / 80 10 20 10
ASD 85 68 89 68 / 100 10 20 20
MSY 85 70 88 71 / 100 10 20 10
GPT 83 68 87 69 / 100 10 20 20
PQL 85 67 87 66 / 90 10 20 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 222017
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN. THROUGH THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT TERREBONNE AND
POSSIBLY LAFOURCHE PARISHES BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A TROF WILL BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEDGE OR OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE PLEASANT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHSHORE.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE QUITE POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL. MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE AFTERNOON
SUMMER LIKE STORM BY MID WEEK.
7/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SE LA AND S MS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LOW CIGS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT NEARLY ALL TAF SITES FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS...OF A PERIOD OF
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 90 65 87 / 10 20 20 10
BTR 68 91 69 89 / 10 20 10 20
ASD 68 89 68 88 / 20 20 20 10
MSY 70 88 71 88 / 10 20 10 20
GPT 68 87 69 88 / 20 20 20 10
PQL 67 87 66 89 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 221716
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1216 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SE LA AND S MS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LOW CIGS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT NEARLY ALL TAF SITES FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. PW MEASURED AT 1.66
INCHES WITH MOISTURE MEASURED FROM THE SFC THROUGH 35K FT. MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 10K FEET THEN SW TO W UPWARD.
NOT A SEVERE SOUNDING BUT THERE IS SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
RADAR. FREEZING LEVEL MEASURED AT 12753 KFT. OVERALL SOUNDING IS
WARMER THEN 24 HOURS AGO.
SHORT TERM...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH AMOUNT AND TIMING OF THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION. UPDATED POPS AND QPF AS THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST. RAINFALL RATES BEING REPRESENTED VERY
WELL ON THE WSR88D DUAL POL WITH OVER 2 INCHES IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES ARE HIGH WITH AN INCH REPORTED AT KBTR
IN 7 MINUTES.
DECISION SUPPORT...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS WAS A HI-RES WRF RUN FROM YESTERDAY...AS
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT FAST ENOUGH. THIS CONVECTION IS
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAKE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER
AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ACCELERATION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TYPICAL IN THIS VERY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PERSIST STRONGLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES. THE BIG QUESTION AND FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IS WHETHER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAINST THE MOMENTUM OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND IF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS IT IS MORE LIKELY A BOUNDARY
WILL STALL RATHER THAN MOVE BACK NORTH AT THIS POINT.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS HAVE ALREADY STARTED IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF BATON ROUGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
MOST LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THEN THE
HEAVIER RAIN AREAS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW TODAY...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS
THAT DEVELOP MINI-BOW STRUCTURES COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY...A
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD REGION AS
A MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. IN
BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THERE
WILL BE A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH OR
TEMPORARILY STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE CONTENT TO
WORK WITH WHICH MEANS A LACK OF CLOUDS AND FAIRLY HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH. SINCE THE
DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CAUSE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY MAY BE HUNG UP JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND LESS HUMID. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO MORE
COMFORTABLE AND BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER SYSTEMS OVER BOTH
THE WEST AND EAST COASTS WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON
THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS MEANS THERE SHOULD BE NO THREAT OF
RAIN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST LOWS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS TRENDS FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOUT NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD
MARINE...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COAST AND BECOME STATIONARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH
FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN WATERS...OF A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 65 91 63 / 70 10 20 20
BTR 86 68 92 68 / 80 10 20 10
ASD 85 68 89 66 / 100 10 20 10
MSY 85 71 89 70 / 100 10 20 10
GPT 83 69 87 67 / 100 20 20 10
PQL 85 67 89 65 / 90 20 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...95/DM
SOUNDING...KEG
PREV DISCUSSION...22/35
000
FXUS64 KLIX 221312
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. PW MEASURED AT 1.66 INCHES
WITH MOISTURE MEASURED FROM THE SFC THROUGH 35K FT. MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 10K FEET THEN SW TO W UPWARD. NOT A SEVERE
SOUNDING BUT THERE IS SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. FREEZING LEVEL
MEASURED AT 12753 KFT. OVERALL SOUNDING IS WARMER THEN 24 HOURS AGO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH AMOUNT AND TIMING OF THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION. UPDATED POPS AND QPF AS THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST. RAINFALL RATES BEING REPRESENTED VERY
WELL ON THE WSR88D DUAL POL WITH OVER 2 INCHES IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES ARE HIGH WITH AN INCH REPORTED AT KBTR
IN 7 MINUTES.
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. PW MEASURED AT 1.66 INCHES
WITH MOISTURE MEASURED FROM THE SFC THROUGH 35K FT. MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 10K FEET THEN SW TO W UPWARD. NOT A SEVERE
SOUNDING BUT THERE IS SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE RADAR. FREEZING LEVEL
MEASURED AT 12753 KFT. OVERALL SOUNDING IS WARMER THEN 24 HOURS AGO.
DECISION SUPPORT...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS WAS A HI-RES WRF RUN FROM YESTERDAY...AS
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT FAST ENOUGH. THIS CONVECTION IS
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAKE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER
AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ACCELERATION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TYPICAL IN THIS VERY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PERSIST STRONGLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES. THE BIG QUESTION AND FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IS WHETHER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAINST THE MOMENTUM OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND IF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS IT IS MORE LIKELY A BOUNDARY
WILL STALL RATHER THAN MOVE BACK NORTH AT THIS POINT.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS HAVE ALREADY STARTED IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF BATON ROUGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
MOST LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THEN THE
HEAVIER RAIN AREAS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW TODAY...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS
THAT DEVELOP MINI-BOW STRUCTURES COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY...A
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD REGION AS
A MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. IN
BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THERE
WILL BE A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH OR
TEMPORARILY STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE CONTENT TO
WORK WITH WHICH MEANS A LACK OF CLOUDS AND FAIRLY HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH. SINCE THE
DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CAUSE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY MAY BE HUNG UP JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND LESS HUMID. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO MORE
COMFORTABLE AND BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER SYSTEMS OVER BOTH
THE WEST AND EAST COASTS WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON
THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS MEANS THERE SHOULD BE NO THREAT OF
RAIN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST LOWS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS TRENDS FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOUT NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD
AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MADE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THAN WAS
ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT TSRA TO AFFECT KMCB WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR...AND WE MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT TO ADD IT TO KBTR SHORTLY AS
WELL. CONVECTION IS STRETCHING ALMOST EAST-WEST AT THIS TIME AND
SOME QUESTION WHETHER IT WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT ANY
OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...WHEREVER THE
CONVECTION DIES WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE THE CONVECTION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REACH KGPT AND KHUM...BUT WILL CARRY MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
18Z. BEYOND 00Z...EXPECT DIMINISHING TREND IN CONVECTION...AND WITH
ONSHORE FLOW POTENTIALLY DISRUPTED...STRATUS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF
AN ISSUE THURSDAY MORNING. 35
MARINE...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE COAST AND BECOME STATIONARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH FLOW BECOMING
OFFSHORE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
WATERS...OF A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 65 91 63 / 70 10 20 20
BTR 86 68 92 68 / 100 10 20 10
ASD 85 68 89 66 / 100 10 20 10
MSY 85 71 89 70 / 100 10 20 10
GPT 83 69 87 67 / 100 20 20 10
PQL 85 67 89 65 / 80 20 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 221019
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
519 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS WAS A HI-RES WRF RUN FROM YESTERDAY...AS
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT FAST ENOUGH. THIS CONVECTION IS
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAKE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER
AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ACCELERATION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TYPICAL IN THIS VERY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PERSIST STRONGLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES. THE BIG QUESTION AND FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IS WHETHER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAINST THE MOMENTUM OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND IF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS IT IS MORE LIKELY A BOUNDARY
WILL STALL RATHER THAN MOVE BACK NORTH AT THIS POINT.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS HAVE ALREADY STARTED IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF BATON ROUGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
MOST LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THEN THE
HEAVIER RAIN AREAS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW TODAY...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS
THAT DEVELOP MINI-BOW STRUCTURES COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY...A
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD REGION AS
A MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. IN
BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THERE
WILL BE A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH OR
TEMPORARILY STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE CONTENT TO
WORK WITH WHICH MEANS A LACK OF CLOUDS AND FAIRLY HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH. SINCE THE
DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CAUSE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY MAY BE HUNG UP JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND LESS HUMID. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO MORE
COMFORTABLE AND BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER SYSTEMS OVER BOTH
THE WEST AND EAST COASTS WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON
THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS MEANS THERE SHOULD BE NO THREAT OF
RAIN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST LOWS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS TRENDS FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOUT NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MADE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THAN WAS
ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT TSRA TO AFFECT KMCB WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR...AND WE MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT TO ADD IT TO KBTR SHORTLY AS
WELL. CONVECTION IS STRETCHING ALMOST EAST-WEST AT THIS TIME AND
SOME QUESTION WHETHER IT WILL DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT ANY
OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THAT BEING SAID...WHEREVER THE
CONVECTION DIES WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE THE CONVECTION WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REACH KGPT AND KHUM...BUT WILL CARRY MENTION IN
THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
18Z. BEYOND 00Z...EXPECT DIMINISHING TREND IN CONVECTION...AND WITH
ONSHORE FLOW POTENTIALLY DISRUPTED...STRATUS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF
AN ISSUE THURSDAY MORNING. 35
&&
.MARINE...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE COAST AND BECOME STATIONARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH FLOW BECOMING
OFFSHORE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
WATERS...OF A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 65 91 63 / 60 10 20 20
BTR 86 68 92 68 / 60 10 20 10
ASD 85 68 89 66 / 60 10 20 10
MSY 85 71 89 70 / 40 10 20 10
GPT 83 69 87 67 / 40 20 20 10
PQL 85 67 89 65 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 212050
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE SHOWED A DEEP 1001MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING EAST THEN A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI TO OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NORTHEAST GULF.
SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO
FUNNEL FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW BUT EXPANSIVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. IN ADDITION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALLER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE PLANAR FIELD SHOWED THE DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT WITH VALUES 1.5 INCHES FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...PW VALUES FROM 1.5 INCHES NW ZONES TO 1 INCH OVER MS
COAST. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT 250MB SHOWED JET MAX OF 95 KNOTS ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW/TROUGH...NORTHERN MISSOURI TO
WISCONSIN AND SUB-JET FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO WEST CUBA...PLACE A
DIVERGENCE FIELD OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. IN OTHER WORDS...BEST
FIELDS FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL FILL OR OPEN TO A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SMALLER CIRCULATION TO LIFT NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
TOWARD NORTHWEST ZONES LATE TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE UP
TO 3KJ/KG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FIELD WITH
VEERING WINDS FROM SURF TO 600MB BUT NOT GREAT WIND SPEEDS. WITH
THE LITTLE WAVE FORECASTED TO PULL NORTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS AND
MISSOURI WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WITH THIS PACKAGE...WE ARE THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION...A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL SUB SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NORTH OF BTR.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
STRUGGLES TO APPROACH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN ON THE EAST COAST FLOW PUSHING THE BULK OF THE DRY AIR JUST
EAST OF FORECAST...TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS EAST ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER WEST ZONES. ERGO...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS BTR
AND SOME RIVER PARISHES ON FRIDAY. MAIN TROUGH WILL LIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST AND LEAVING RIDGE TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER SOUTHERN TIER
OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5H...COOL AIR WILL SLIP UNDERNEATH THIS
FEATURE AND CREATE MORE STABLE ATM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING IN THE FL010-FL020
RANGE BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR WITH PATCHY FOG
BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING TO 3 TO 7 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 15Z WITH CEILINGS ALL ABOVE
FL020. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BTR AND MCB AS EARLY AS 10Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE OTHER SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. 18
&&
.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IT WILL SLOWLY RETREAT EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS...POSSIBLY A TOUCH ABOVE 15 KNOTS BRIEFLY IN SPOTS. SEAS THRU
THAT PERIOD TO BE MAINLY IN THE 2 FOOT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WESTERN WATERS WITH 3 TO 4 FOOT WAVES POSSIBLE TODAY WITH
PERSISTENT WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF BEGINNING MID
WEEK. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST AND CAUSE THE
WIND FIELD TO BREAKDOWN. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH
EASTERN LEGS OF MARINE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 18
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 69 87 68 90 / 20 50 20 30
BTR 74 89 70 90 / 20 50 20 30
ASD 73 88 69 89 / 10 30 20 30
MSY 75 87 72 87 / 10 30 20 30
GPT 74 86 68 86 / 10 30 20 30
PQL 68 86 67 88 / 10 30 20 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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