Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...MDLS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE DEPTH AND SURGE OF DRY
AIR THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. 3-4 DAYS AGO THEY SUGGESTED WE WOULD
DRY OUT FOR MON AND TUE BUT THEN SAT NIGHT THEY BEGAN TO SUGGEST THE
BNDRY WOULD HOLD FURTHER NORTH AND MOISTURE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE
REGION ALONG WITH SCT SHRA MON AND TODAY. THIS WAS EVEN WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE A S/W RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND A BIG NEGATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES. WELL WE SHOULD HAVE
STUCK WITH OUR GUNS YESTERDAY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WILL DO SO
TODAY.

S/W RIDGING IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE L/W TROUGH SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. LAST NIGHT PWS JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH WERE NEAR 1.5 WHILE OUR BNDRY DRIFTED WELL INTO THE
GULF. COMBINE ALL THAT WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND IT HELPED KEEP
THINGS QUIET YESTERDAY. AS FOR TODAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS MUCH OF SELA AND SRN MS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER AND ACTUALLY FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY. ENJOY IT AS THIS VERY
WELL COULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO TUE NIGHT AND MORE SO WED AND THU...MOISTURE WILL BE
BACK ON THE RISE AND OUR S/W RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. BY WED PWS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND 2 INCH WITH DEVELOPING WSW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND A WEAK IMPULSE INTO THE REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION WED.

THE L/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE AND THIS ALONG WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THU WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT. ONLY VERY MINOR
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY ALL
CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH THE ECMWF THE COLDEST. AGAIN
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO
THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

FRI WILL BE THE LAST DAY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE FCST. A
STRONG MID LVL JET DROPPING OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL SHARPEN THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT MOVES INTO THE
ERN CONUS FRI NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE GRT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRI
AND WITH THE STRONG PUSH THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND WITH
THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT DRY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FRI AFTN. AS FOR STRONG
SVR POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT MID
LVL FLOW WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. CANT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED
WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI WILL OVERCOME ANY
MIXING FROM WINDS AND WILL COOL THINGS OFF IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS
SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING SINCE MID MAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THIS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S
IN SWRN MS. NOT GOING TO BITE ON THAT QUITE YET BUT WILL SHOW 50 FOR
MCB AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
HUM...MCB...BTR...ASD AND HDC...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF OR
TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HUM AND MCB. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT HUM...NEW...MSY AND BTR...VERY ISOLATED SO WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL...OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYER DECREASE ABOUT 60M TO 70M BEHIND THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO GFS AND EURO. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE THE DURATION OF OFF SHORE WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  30  30
BTR  88  71  87  73 /  10  10  40  30
ASD  86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  40  30
GPT  85  70  85  73 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  85  66  85  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 18





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...MDLS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE DEPTH AND SURGE OF DRY
AIR THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. 3-4 DAYS AGO THEY SUGGESTED WE WOULD
DRY OUT FOR MON AND TUE BUT THEN SAT NIGHT THEY BEGAN TO SUGGEST THE
BNDRY WOULD HOLD FURTHER NORTH AND MOISTURE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE
REGION ALONG WITH SCT SHRA MON AND TODAY. THIS WAS EVEN WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE A S/W RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND A BIG NEGATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES. WELL WE SHOULD HAVE
STUCK WITH OUR GUNS YESTERDAY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WILL DO SO
TODAY.

S/W RIDGING IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE L/W TROUGH SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. LAST NIGHT PWS JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH WERE NEAR 1.5 WHILE OUR BNDRY DRIFTED WELL INTO THE
GULF. COMBINE ALL THAT WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND IT HELPED KEEP
THINGS QUIET YESTERDAY. AS FOR TODAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS MUCH OF SELA AND SRN MS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER AND ACTUALLY FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY. ENJOY IT AS THIS VERY
WELL COULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO TUE NIGHT AND MORE SO WED AND THU...MOISTURE WILL BE
BACK ON THE RISE AND OUR S/W RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. BY WED PWS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND 2 INCH WITH DEVELOPING WSW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND A WEAK IMPULSE INTO THE REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION WED.

THE L/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE AND THIS ALONG WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THU WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT. ONLY VERY MINOR
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY ALL
CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH THE ECMWF THE COLDEST. AGAIN
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO
THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

FRI WILL BE THE LAST DAY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE FCST. A
STRONG MID LVL JET DROPPING OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL SHARPEN THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT MOVES INTO THE
ERN CONUS FRI NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE GRT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRI
AND WITH THE STRONG PUSH THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND WITH
THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT DRY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FRI AFTN. AS FOR STRONG
SVR POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT MID
LVL FLOW WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. CANT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED
WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI WILL OVERCOME ANY
MIXING FROM WINDS AND WILL COOL THINGS OFF IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS
SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING SINCE MID MAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THIS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S
IN SWRN MS. NOT GOING TO BITE ON THAT QUITE YET BUT WILL SHOW 50 FOR
MCB AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
HUM...MCB...BTR...ASD AND HDC...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF OR
TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HUM AND MCB. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT HUM...NEW...MSY AND BTR...VERY ISOLATED SO WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL...OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYER DECREASE ABOUT 60M TO 70M BEHIND THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO GFS AND EURO. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE THE DURATION OF OFF SHORE WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  30  30
BTR  88  71  87  73 /  10  10  40  30
ASD  86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  40  30
GPT  85  70  85  73 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  85  66  85  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 18






000
FXUS64 KLIX 300454
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY...MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT A FEW TAF AIRPORTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF
OR TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE FOG PRONE
AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
FROM 14Z TUESDAY TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY
WOULD ONLY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS ON ANY TAF AIRPORT...SO HAVE NOT
ADDED MENTION AT THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED DRYING OF THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAVE DECREASED BY NEAR 0.20 INCHES TODAY AND DEEP LAYER
NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A REGION
OF MUCH DRIER AIR FROM AROUND 450MB AND UP...WITH CAPPING ALOFT
NOTED WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. BELOW THIS
CAP...A REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE TODAY. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS NOTED AT 1600 J/KG...THE OVERALL LAPSE
RATES WERE VERY WEAK AND CAPE WAS ACTUALLY QUITE SKINNY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 100MB KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA ALL MORNING AND HAS REALLY ONLY STARTED BREAKING UP SINCE
18Z. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED...ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED...AND ARE MOVING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...MET GUIDANCE POPS ARE
OVERDONE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW THE AIRMASS IS GOING TO
BE A BIT DRIER THAN TODAY. COMBINED WITH NO ORGANIZED
FORCING...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS DRY AS THE MAV GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE
MAV POPS AS A BASELINE. STRONG TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...BUT STAY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY CLOSE ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOLUTIONS WOULD INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP FROM ABOUT 1.8
INCHES AT 18Z FRIDAY TO ABOUT 0.5 INCHES 12 HOURS LATER. EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...BUT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MEX DATA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
H925 TEMPERATURES DROP BY 6-8C BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PAST 80 FOR THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
50S...WITH SOME MODERATION BEYOND THAT. 35

AVIATION...

BKN MVFR CEILINGS AT EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL LOWERING OF MOISTURE CONTENT IN
LOWER PART OF ATMOSPHERE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MOS GUIDANCE
FOLLOWS TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE. 18Z TAFS REFLECT VFR
GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 21

MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE...
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  70  88 /  20  10  20  30
BTR  70  89  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
ASD  69  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  74  87  74  87 /  20  20  20  30
GPT  70  86  71  85 /  30  20  20  20
PQL  67  87  68  85 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 300057
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED DRYING OF THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAVE DECREASED BY NEAR 0.20 INCHES TODAY AND DEEP LAYER
NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A REGION
OF MUCH DRIER AIR FROM AROUND 450MB AND UP...WITH CAPPING ALOFT
NOTED WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. BELOW THIS
CAP...A REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE TODAY. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS NOTED AT 1600 J/KG...THE OVERALL LAPSE
RATES WERE VERY WEAK AND CAPE WAS ACTUALLY QUITE SKINNY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 100MB KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA ALL MORNING AND HAS REALLY ONLY STARTED BREAKING UP SINCE
18Z. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED...ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED...AND ARE MOVING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...MET GUIDANCE POPS ARE
OVERDONE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW THE AIRMASS IS GOING TO
BE A BIT DRIER THAN TODAY. COMBINED WITH NO ORGANIZED
FORCING...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS DRY AS THE MAV GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE
MAV POPS AS A BASELINE. STRONG TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...BUT STAY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY CLOSE ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOLUTIONS WOULD INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP FROM ABOUT 1.8
INCHES AT 18Z FRIDAY TO ABOUT 0.5 INCHES 12 HOURS LATER. EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...BUT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MEX DATA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
H925 TEMPERATURES DROP BY 6-8C BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PAST 80 FOR THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
50S...WITH SOME MODERATION BEYOND THAT. 35

AVIATION...

BKN MVFR CEILINGS AT EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL LOWERING OF MOISTURE CONTENT IN
LOWER PART OF ATMOSPHERE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MOS GUIDANCE
FOLLOWS TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE. 18Z TAFS REFLECT VFR
GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 21

MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE...
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  70  88 /  20  10  20  30
BTR  70  89  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
ASD  69  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  74  87  74  87 /  20  20  20  30
GPT  70  86  71  85 /  30  20  20  20
PQL  67  87  68  85 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 300057
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED DRYING OF THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAVE DECREASED BY NEAR 0.20 INCHES TODAY AND DEEP LAYER
NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A REGION
OF MUCH DRIER AIR FROM AROUND 450MB AND UP...WITH CAPPING ALOFT
NOTED WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. BELOW THIS
CAP...A REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE TODAY. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS NOTED AT 1600 J/KG...THE OVERALL LAPSE
RATES WERE VERY WEAK AND CAPE WAS ACTUALLY QUITE SKINNY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 100MB KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA ALL MORNING AND HAS REALLY ONLY STARTED BREAKING UP SINCE
18Z. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED...ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED...AND ARE MOVING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...MET GUIDANCE POPS ARE
OVERDONE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW THE AIRMASS IS GOING TO
BE A BIT DRIER THAN TODAY. COMBINED WITH NO ORGANIZED
FORCING...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS DRY AS THE MAV GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE
MAV POPS AS A BASELINE. STRONG TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...BUT STAY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY CLOSE ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOLUTIONS WOULD INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP FROM ABOUT 1.8
INCHES AT 18Z FRIDAY TO ABOUT 0.5 INCHES 12 HOURS LATER. EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...BUT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MEX DATA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
H925 TEMPERATURES DROP BY 6-8C BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PAST 80 FOR THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
50S...WITH SOME MODERATION BEYOND THAT. 35

AVIATION...

BKN MVFR CEILINGS AT EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL LOWERING OF MOISTURE CONTENT IN
LOWER PART OF ATMOSPHERE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MOS GUIDANCE
FOLLOWS TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE. 18Z TAFS REFLECT VFR
GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 21

MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE...
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  70  88 /  20  10  20  30
BTR  70  89  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
ASD  69  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  74  87  74  87 /  20  20  20  30
GPT  70  86  71  85 /  30  20  20  20
PQL  67  87  68  85 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 292010
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 100MB KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA ALL MORNING AND HAS REALLY ONLY STARTED BREAKING UP SINCE
18Z. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED...ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED...AND ARE MOVING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...MET GUIDANCE POPS ARE
OVERDONE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW THE AIRMASS IS GOING TO
BE A BIT DRIER THAN TODAY. COMBINED WITH NO ORGANIZED
FORCING...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS DRY AS THE MAV GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE
MAV POPS AS A BASELINE. STRONG TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...BUT STAY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY CLOSE ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOLUTIONS WOULD INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP FROM ABOUT 1.8
INCHES AT 18Z FRIDAY TO ABOUT 0.5 INCHES 12 HOURS LATER. EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...BUT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MEX DATA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
H925 TEMPERATURES DROP BY 6-8C BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PAST 80 FOR THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
50S...WITH SOME MODERATION BEYOND THAT. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

BKN MVFR CEILINGS AT EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL LOWERING OF MOISTURE CONTENT IN
LOWER PART OF ATMOSPHERE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MOS GUIDANCE
FOLLOWS TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE. 18Z TAFS REFLECT VFR
GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 21

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE...
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  70  88 /  20  10  20  30
BTR  70  89  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
ASD  69  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  74  87  74  87 /  20  20  20  30
GPT  70  86  71  85 /  30  20  20  20
PQL  67  87  68  85 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 292010
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 100MB KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA ALL MORNING AND HAS REALLY ONLY STARTED BREAKING UP SINCE
18Z. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED...ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED...AND ARE MOVING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...MET GUIDANCE POPS ARE
OVERDONE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW THE AIRMASS IS GOING TO
BE A BIT DRIER THAN TODAY. COMBINED WITH NO ORGANIZED
FORCING...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS DRY AS THE MAV GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE
MAV POPS AS A BASELINE. STRONG TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...BUT STAY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY CLOSE ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOLUTIONS WOULD INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP FROM ABOUT 1.8
INCHES AT 18Z FRIDAY TO ABOUT 0.5 INCHES 12 HOURS LATER. EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...BUT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MEX DATA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
H925 TEMPERATURES DROP BY 6-8C BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PAST 80 FOR THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
50S...WITH SOME MODERATION BEYOND THAT. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

BKN MVFR CEILINGS AT EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL LOWERING OF MOISTURE CONTENT IN
LOWER PART OF ATMOSPHERE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MOS GUIDANCE
FOLLOWS TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE. 18Z TAFS REFLECT VFR
GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 21

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE...
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  70  88 /  20  10  20  30
BTR  70  89  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
ASD  69  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  74  87  74  87 /  20  20  20  30
GPT  70  86  71  85 /  30  20  20  20
PQL  67  87  68  85 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 291307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
807 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DESPITE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE
450MB/ SINCE LAST EVENING/S BALLOON...ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE REMAINS
SATURATED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 2.2 INCHES. MLCAPE
WAS CALCULATED AROUND 250 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TODAY
MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. THERE ARE NO TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THE
PROFILE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER OR
LOWER AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE TO
12000 FEET...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 23500 FEET WHERE WINDS
BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. A
PEAK WIND OF 42 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 36000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: BALLOON FLIGHT LASTED 88 MINUTES AND REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 16 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER LAKE BORGNE 22
MILES DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...DEEP MID LVL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN OVER OUR REGION
NOW IN PHASE WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND TWRDS
THE APPALACHIANS. A RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST AND
TROUGH IN THE EAST. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY BNDRY IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE NRN GULF WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE NRN GRT LAKES AND DRAPED
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. /CAB/

SHORT TERM...LINGERING SHRA ALONG AND JUST OFF THE MS COAST AND WEST
INTO SELA HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
DO SO TILL SUNRISE WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH. HUMID NIGHT OUT
THERE WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS.

OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOME BUT OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY. OUR DISTURBANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND RIDGING WILL MOVE
IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THAT SAID HGHTS DON/T REALLY INCREASE
WITH H5 HGHTS B/T 584-586DM THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION WE WILL NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY(IF ANY) OF DRYING OUT. PWS WILL REMAIN ABV 1.5
INCHES OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME. LAST AS PREVIOUS FCSTER
MENTIONED...THAT BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST TODAY BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA ACTIVITY TODAY ALONG WITH
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND
TONIGHT SO HAVE OPTED OUT OF INCLUDING THUNDER IN THE FCST.

BY TUE THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LEAVING A L/W
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE RIDGE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS EAST AND THUS FLATTENING IT OUT OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LVLS NOW
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. COMBINE THAT WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE
305K LVL AND THIS SHOULD AID IN ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION AS WE HEAT
UP. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY IN PLACE SO WILL
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST FOR TUE.

BY WED WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EAST AND WE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER SW FLOW. A WEAK
IMPULSE MAY MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SCT SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE
SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH AND THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER WITH THE ECMWF BEGIN THE FASTER MDL. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT SAID THE GFS TRENDED FASTER AS WELL AND WITH THAT
HAVE USED A BLEND APPROACH WITH A HIGHER WEIGHT TWRDS THE ECMWF FOR
FRI AND THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE TRENDS.

THU WILL BE A WETTER DAY. AS THE L/W TROUGH STARTS WORKING EAST SW
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
WELL. ONCE THE L/W TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO PUSH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL RACE
NE THU NIGHT AS THE L/W TROUGH MOVES IN THE PLAINS AND DIGS. THIS
WILL FINALLY GET THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SITTING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS TO SURGE SOUTH AND BY LATE THU NIGHT WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOOK FOR SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA TO
INCREASE.

FRI...STILL LOOKING HIGHLY LIKELY THAT OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK PROVIDING WHAT WILL
FEEL LIKE A FALL WEEKEND. MDLS ARE INDICATING A FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY IN THE GULF FRI AFTN. SHRA AND
TSRA ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NW POSSIBLY RAIN
FREE NO LATER THAN 15Z. NOT ANTICIPATING ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER BUT
WITH MID LVL FLOW APPROACHING 40 KTS...SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH...ALONG WITH RATHER STRONG FORCING THANKS TO THE FRONT AND
TROUGH AXIS...CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY SVR STORMS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE RAW MDL TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S AT LEAST. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE SUN AS
THE SFC HIGH SITS RIGHT OVER THE REGION PROVIDING THE BEST RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE FCST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. THE SOUTHSHORE COULD
SEE LOWER 60S. /CAB/

AVIATION...

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. IN THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS
AFTER 06Z. 11

MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE...
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A
DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  40  30  30  10
BTR  86  71  87  71 /  40  30  40  20
ASD  85  69  86  70 /  40  40  30  20
MSY  85  73  86  73 /  40  40  30  20
GPT  85  70  85  71 /  50  40  30  20
PQL  85  68  85  68 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 291307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
807 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DESPITE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE UPPER LEVELS /ABOVE
450MB/ SINCE LAST EVENING/S BALLOON...ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE REMAINS
SATURATED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 2.2 INCHES. MLCAPE
WAS CALCULATED AROUND 250 J/KG SO INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TODAY
MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY. THERE ARE NO TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THE
PROFILE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER OR
LOWER AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

WINDS ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE TO
12000 FEET...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 23500 FEET WHERE WINDS
BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. A
PEAK WIND OF 42 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 36000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: BALLOON FLIGHT LASTED 88 MINUTES AND REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 16 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BURSTING OVER LAKE BORGNE 22
MILES DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...DEEP MID LVL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN OVER OUR REGION
NOW IN PHASE WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND TWRDS
THE APPALACHIANS. A RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST AND
TROUGH IN THE EAST. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY BNDRY IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE NRN GULF WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE NRN GRT LAKES AND DRAPED
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. /CAB/

SHORT TERM...LINGERING SHRA ALONG AND JUST OFF THE MS COAST AND WEST
INTO SELA HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
DO SO TILL SUNRISE WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH. HUMID NIGHT OUT
THERE WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS.

OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOME BUT OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY. OUR DISTURBANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND RIDGING WILL MOVE
IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THAT SAID HGHTS DON/T REALLY INCREASE
WITH H5 HGHTS B/T 584-586DM THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION WE WILL NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY(IF ANY) OF DRYING OUT. PWS WILL REMAIN ABV 1.5
INCHES OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME. LAST AS PREVIOUS FCSTER
MENTIONED...THAT BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST TODAY BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA ACTIVITY TODAY ALONG WITH
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND
TONIGHT SO HAVE OPTED OUT OF INCLUDING THUNDER IN THE FCST.

BY TUE THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LEAVING A L/W
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE RIDGE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS EAST AND THUS FLATTENING IT OUT OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LVLS NOW
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. COMBINE THAT WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE
305K LVL AND THIS SHOULD AID IN ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION AS WE HEAT
UP. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY IN PLACE SO WILL
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST FOR TUE.

BY WED WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EAST AND WE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER SW FLOW. A WEAK
IMPULSE MAY MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SCT SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE
SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH AND THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER WITH THE ECMWF BEGIN THE FASTER MDL. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT SAID THE GFS TRENDED FASTER AS WELL AND WITH THAT
HAVE USED A BLEND APPROACH WITH A HIGHER WEIGHT TWRDS THE ECMWF FOR
FRI AND THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE TRENDS.

THU WILL BE A WETTER DAY. AS THE L/W TROUGH STARTS WORKING EAST SW
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
WELL. ONCE THE L/W TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO PUSH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL RACE
NE THU NIGHT AS THE L/W TROUGH MOVES IN THE PLAINS AND DIGS. THIS
WILL FINALLY GET THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SITTING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS TO SURGE SOUTH AND BY LATE THU NIGHT WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOOK FOR SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA TO
INCREASE.

FRI...STILL LOOKING HIGHLY LIKELY THAT OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK PROVIDING WHAT WILL
FEEL LIKE A FALL WEEKEND. MDLS ARE INDICATING A FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY IN THE GULF FRI AFTN. SHRA AND
TSRA ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NW POSSIBLY RAIN
FREE NO LATER THAN 15Z. NOT ANTICIPATING ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER BUT
WITH MID LVL FLOW APPROACHING 40 KTS...SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH...ALONG WITH RATHER STRONG FORCING THANKS TO THE FRONT AND
TROUGH AXIS...CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY SVR STORMS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE RAW MDL TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S AT LEAST. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE SUN AS
THE SFC HIGH SITS RIGHT OVER THE REGION PROVIDING THE BEST RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE FCST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. THE SOUTHSHORE COULD
SEE LOWER 60S. /CAB/

AVIATION...

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. IN THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS
AFTER 06Z. 11

MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE...
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A
DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  40  30  30  10
BTR  86  71  87  71 /  40  30  40  20
ASD  85  69  86  70 /  40  40  30  20
MSY  85  73  86  73 /  40  40  30  20
GPT  85  70  85  71 /  50  40  30  20
PQL  85  68  85  68 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 290905
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MID LVL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT THE RAIN OVER OUR REGION
NOW IN PHASE WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND TWRDS
THE APPALACHIANS. A RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST AND
TROUGH IN THE EAST. AT THE SFC...A STATIONARY BNDRY IS DRAPED ACROSS
THE NRN GULF WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE NRN GRT LAKES AND DRAPED
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.SHORT TERM...LINGERING SHRA ALONG AND JUST OFF THE MS COAST AND WEST
INTO SELA HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY
DO SO TILL SUNRISE WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH. HUMID NIGHT OUT
THERE WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND
THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS.

OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOME BUT OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR EACH DAY. OUR DISTURBANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND RIDGING WILL MOVE
IN PLACE TODAY AND TOMORROW. THAT SAID HGHTS DON/T REALLY INCREASE
WITH H5 HGHTS B/T 584-586DM THROUGH WED. IN ADDITION WE WILL NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY(IF ANY) OF DRYING OUT. PWS WILL REMAIN ABV 1.5
INCHES OVER THE SAME TIME FRAME. LAST AS PREVIOUS FCSTER
MENTIONED...THAT BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST TODAY BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA ACTIVITY TODAY ALONG WITH
A LITTLE OVERRUNNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY AND
TONIGHT SO HAVE OPTED OUT OF INCLUDING THUNDER IN THE FCST.

BY TUE THE CLOSED LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LEAVING A L/W
TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE RIDGE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS EAST AND THUS FLATTENING IT OUT OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LVLS NOW
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. COMBINE THAT WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE
305K LVL AND THIS SHOULD AID IN ISLTD TO SCT CONVECTION AS WE HEAT
UP. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY IN PLACE SO WILL
INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FCST FOR TUE.

BY WED WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EAST AND WE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER SW FLOW. A WEAK
IMPULSE MAY MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SCT SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE DAY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE
SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH AND THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO TREND
FASTER WITH THE ECMWF BEGIN THE FASTER MDL. THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE
AMPLIFIED. THAT SAID THE GFS TRENDED FASTER AS WELL AND WITH THAT
HAVE USED A BLEND APPROACH WITH A HIGHER WEIGHT TWRDS THE ECMWF FOR
FRI AND THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE TRENDS.

THU WILL BE A WETTER DAY. AS THE L/W TROUGH STARTS WORKING EAST SW
FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
WELL. ONCE THE L/W TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO PUSH EAST OF THE ROCKIES
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL RACE
NE THU NIGHT AS THE L/W TROUGH MOVES IN THE PLAINS AND DIGS. THIS
WILL FINALLY GET THE COLD FRONT THAT IS SITTING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS TO SURGE SOUTH AND BY LATE THU NIGHT WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LOOK FOR SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA TO
INCREASE.

FRI...STILL LOOKING HIGHLY LIKELY THAT OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK PROVIDING WHAT WILL
FEEL LIKE A FALL WEEKEND. MDLS ARE INDICATING A FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY IN THE GULF FRI AFTN. SHRA AND
TSRA ARE LIKELY WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN OUR NW POSSIBLY RAIN
FREE NO LATER THAN 15Z. NOT ANTICIPATING ORGANIZED SVR WEATHER BUT
WITH MID LVL FLOW APPROACHING 40 KTS...SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH...ALONG WITH RATHER STRONG FORCING THANKS TO THE FRONT AND
TROUGH AXIS...CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG AND POSSIBLY SVR STORMS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN. DEWPOINTS ARE NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE RAW MDL TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 40S AT LEAST. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE SUN AS
THE SFC HIGH SITS RIGHT OVER THE REGION PROVIDING THE BEST RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS. CURRENTLY HAVE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE FCST FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. THE SOUTHSHORE COULD
SEE LOWER 60S. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE PRIMARILY TO LOW
CEILINGS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. IN THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS
AFTER 06Z. 11

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE...
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A
DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  40  30  30  10
BTR  86  71  87  71 /  40  30  40  20
ASD  85  69  86  70 /  40  40  30  20
MSY  85  73  86  73 /  40  40  30  20
GPT  85  70  85  71 /  50  40  30  20
PQL  85  68  85  68 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 11






000
FXUS64 KLIX 282111
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...

AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRANSIT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOUISIANA COAST AND SHOULD QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE IS A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW AND A REGION OF LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT TO THE WEST.
THIS GRADIENT CURRENTLY LIES FROM MCCOMB TO HAMMOND TO PORT
FOURCHON. GIVEN THIS...HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF
THIS LINE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST FOR THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE COVERAGE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY PULLS TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AND TOWARD LOWER ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT A LINGERING TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD SHIFT TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THIS WOULD ALLOW A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO BUILD OVER THE
LAND BASED ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LAST COUPLE
OF MODEL RUNS ARE NOW INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SIT ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS THROUGH MID-
WEEK. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST...HAVE
HAD RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR EACH DAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED NOW. EVEN WITH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY A
MINIMAL CAP IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME HEATING...WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME ANY WEAK CAPPING ALOFT AND SPARK OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS FALL BACK
INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A STRONG LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS STATES AND QUICKLY RACE TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS...A STRONG
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES STATES BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RACE TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THIS DEEPENING BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM AND EXPECT TO SEE A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BUILD OVER
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL TAKE ON A MORE SUMMER
LIKE FEEL. INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO GREATER FORCING AND OVERALL OMEGA IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF DIURNALLY INDUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...STRONG FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG IT AND SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE SHEAR VALUES AND
OVERALL DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THIS IN MIND...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL IN NATURE...SO THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES TO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
ALSO BE COLDER...AND EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CIGS IN
THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOWER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY OR PREVAILING GROUPS AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z. AFTER THAT...ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. WITH THESE LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM CALM TO AROUND 2 FEET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP. SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET AS THIS
FLOW DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  85  69  87 /  40  30  20  30
BTR  70  86  70  87 /  40  30  20  30
ASD  70  86  68  86 /  60  40  30  30
MSY  73  83  73  85 /  50  40  30  40
GPT  72  84  70  85 /  60  40  30  30
PQL  70  85  68  85 /  70  50  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32






000
FXUS64 KLIX 282111
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...

AN ELONGATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRANSIT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOUISIANA COAST AND SHOULD QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE IS A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THIS
DEVELOPING LOW AND A REGION OF LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT TO THE WEST.
THIS GRADIENT CURRENTLY LIES FROM MCCOMB TO HAMMOND TO PORT
FOURCHON. GIVEN THIS...HAVE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF
THIS LINE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST FOR THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE COVERAGE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE LOW
SLOWLY PULLS TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT...THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AND TOWARD LOWER ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO
TOMORROW AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT A LINGERING TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD SHIFT TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THIS WOULD ALLOW A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO BUILD OVER THE
LAND BASED ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LAST COUPLE
OF MODEL RUNS ARE NOW INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SIT ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS THROUGH MID-
WEEK. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE COAST...HAVE
HAD RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR EACH DAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED NOW. EVEN WITH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY A
MINIMAL CAP IS EXPECTED. DAYTIME HEATING...WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME ANY WEAK CAPPING ALOFT AND SPARK OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE MODELS FALL BACK
INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A STRONG LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS STATES AND QUICKLY RACE TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH DEEPENS...A STRONG
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES STATES BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RACE TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO PULL BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THIS DEEPENING BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM AND EXPECT TO SEE A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS BUILD OVER
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY...AND THE AIRMASS WILL TAKE ON A MORE SUMMER
LIKE FEEL. INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO GREATER FORCING AND OVERALL OMEGA IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER
ROUND OF DIURNALLY INDUCED SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...STRONG FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG IT AND SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE SHEAR VALUES AND
OVERALL DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THIS IN MIND...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WIND FIELD WILL BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL IN NATURE...SO THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
STRONG NEGATIVE VORTICITY AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES TO THE AREA. THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL
ALSO BE COLDER...AND EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CIGS IN
THE 1500 TO 2500 FT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOWER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY OR PREVAILING GROUPS AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z. AFTER THAT...ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER
OFF CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. WITH THESE LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM CALM TO AROUND 2 FEET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO
DEVELOP. SEAS WILL INCREASE BACK TO BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FEET AS THIS
FLOW DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  85  69  87 /  40  30  20  30
BTR  70  86  70  87 /  40  30  20  30
ASD  70  86  68  86 /  60  40  30  30
MSY  73  83  73  85 /  50  40  30  40
GPT  72  84  70  85 /  60  40  30  30
PQL  70  85  68  85 /  70  50  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 281307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
807 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS MOIST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE YIELDING A
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.28 INCHES. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER AT AROUND 600 J/KG. TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 850MB ARE GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER /WARMER/ AND FROM
800 TO 600MB A FEW DEGREES LOWER /COOLER/ THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE FROM THE EAST...IN THE
MID- LEVELS FROM THE SOUTH...AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST. A PEAK WIND OF 40 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 37500
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 114 MINUTES THIS
MORNING REACHING A HEIGHT OF 21.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING JUST SOUTHEAST OF PICAYUNE MS 15 MILES DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT HAS BEEN MUCH QUIETER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WE APPEAR TO BE B/T DISTURBANCES WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE STILL
BACK TO OUR WEST OVER TX. THIS HAS LED TO TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
CONVECTION...ONE TO OUR EAST IN THE GULF AND THE SECOND MUCH LARGER
AREA TO OUR WEST AND SW. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND TEMPS ARE
FAR WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE
AREA MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT 7Z.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY TODAY JUST TIMING HAS BEEN A LITTLE
SLOWER. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF TX TODAY. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVERRUNNING AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN GULF AND WITH THAT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED
TSRA WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS. OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL.
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA BUT EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR. COMBINE THAT WITH
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MAINLY ANTICIPATING
MODERATE SHRA. SPOTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TSRA
OCCUR BUT MAINLY LOOK FOR 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE ENE. LIGHT SHRA MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BEFORE WE TEMPORARILY DRY OUT
AS S/W RIDGING TAKES PLACE MON AFTN AND NIGHT. /CAB/

LONG TERM...HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WE SEE A
SLIGHT WARM UP JUST BEFORE OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS FRI WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SLOWLY WORK
EAST CAUSING THE S/W RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUE TO BREAK DOWN WITH SW
FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING. THE SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE PLAINS THU NIGHT AND FRI.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE L/W TROUGH DOMINATING
THE ERN CONUS FRI AND DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND INTO THE SERN STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SW WITH DEEP NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A NICE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS DEEP INTO THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CNTRD OVER GULF COAST SUN
MORNING. IF EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT LIKE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THEN
MORNING LOWS SUN COULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO THE LOWER 60S. /CAB/

AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LIKEWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL IMPACT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. 11

MARINE...

MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 7 AM TODAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHERLY ON MONDAY AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  69  86  68 /  70  60  20  10
BTR  81  70  85  69 /  80  60  20  10
ASD  82  68  86  67 /  90  80  30  20
MSY  81  72  83  73 /  90  80  30  20
GPT  80  69  85  68 /  90  80  30  20
PQL  81  68  84  65 / 100  90  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 281307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
807 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS MOIST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE YIELDING A
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.28 INCHES. INSTABILITY IS
RATHER MEAGER AT AROUND 600 J/KG. TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 850MB ARE GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER /WARMER/ AND FROM
800 TO 600MB A FEW DEGREES LOWER /COOLER/ THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WERE FROM THE EAST...IN THE
MID- LEVELS FROM THE SOUTH...AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OR WEST. A PEAK WIND OF 40 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 37500
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 114 MINUTES THIS
MORNING REACHING A HEIGHT OF 21.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE
BURSTING JUST SOUTHEAST OF PICAYUNE MS 15 MILES DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT HAS BEEN MUCH QUIETER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WE APPEAR TO BE B/T DISTURBANCES WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE STILL
BACK TO OUR WEST OVER TX. THIS HAS LED TO TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
CONVECTION...ONE TO OUR EAST IN THE GULF AND THE SECOND MUCH LARGER
AREA TO OUR WEST AND SW. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND TEMPS ARE
FAR WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE
AREA MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT 7Z.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY TODAY JUST TIMING HAS BEEN A LITTLE
SLOWER. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF TX TODAY. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVERRUNNING AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN GULF AND WITH THAT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED
TSRA WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS. OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL.
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA BUT EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR. COMBINE THAT WITH
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MAINLY ANTICIPATING
MODERATE SHRA. SPOTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TSRA
OCCUR BUT MAINLY LOOK FOR 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE ENE. LIGHT SHRA MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BEFORE WE TEMPORARILY DRY OUT
AS S/W RIDGING TAKES PLACE MON AFTN AND NIGHT. /CAB/

LONG TERM...HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WE SEE A
SLIGHT WARM UP JUST BEFORE OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS FRI WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SLOWLY WORK
EAST CAUSING THE S/W RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUE TO BREAK DOWN WITH SW
FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING. THE SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE PLAINS THU NIGHT AND FRI.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE L/W TROUGH DOMINATING
THE ERN CONUS FRI AND DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND INTO THE SERN STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SW WITH DEEP NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A NICE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS DEEP INTO THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CNTRD OVER GULF COAST SUN
MORNING. IF EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT LIKE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THEN
MORNING LOWS SUN COULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO THE LOWER 60S. /CAB/

AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LIKEWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL IMPACT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. 11

MARINE...

MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 7 AM TODAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHERLY ON MONDAY AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  69  86  68 /  70  60  20  10
BTR  81  70  85  69 /  80  60  20  10
ASD  82  68  86  67 /  90  80  30  20
MSY  81  72  83  73 /  90  80  30  20
GPT  80  69  85  68 /  90  80  30  20
PQL  81  68  84  65 / 100  90  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 280802
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
302 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT HAS BEEN MUCH QUIETER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WE APPEAR TO BE B/T DISTURBANCES WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE STILL
BACK TO OUR WEST OVER TX. THIS HAS LED TO TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
CONVECTION...ONE TO OUR EAST IN THE GULF AND THE SECOND MUCH LARGER
AREA TO OUR WEST AND SW. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND TEMPS ARE
FAR WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE
AREA MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT 7Z.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY TODAY JUST TIMING HAS BEEN A LITTLE
SLOWER. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF TX TODAY. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVERRUNNING AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN GULF AND WITH THAT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED
TSRA WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS. OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL.
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA BUT EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR. COMBINE THAT WITH
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MAINLY ANTICIPATING
MODERATE SHRA. SPOTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TSRA
OCCUR BUT MAINLY LOOK FOR 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE ENE. LIGHT SHRA MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BEFORE WE TEMPORARILY DRY OUT
AS S/W RIDGING TAKES PLACE MON AFTN AND NIGHT. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WE SEE A
SLIGHT WARM UP JUST BEFORE OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS FRI WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SLOWLY WORK
EAST CAUSING THE S/W RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUE TO BREAK DOWN WITH SW
FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING. THE SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE PLAINS THU NIGHT AND FRI.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE L/W TROUGH DOMINATING
THE ERN CONUS FRI AND DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND INTO THE SERN STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SW WITH DEEP NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A NICE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS DEEP INTO THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CNTRD OVER GULF COAST SUN
MORNING. IF EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT LIKE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THEN
MORNING LOWS SUN COULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO THE LOWER 60S. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LIKEWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL IMPACT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. 11

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 7 AM TODAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHERLY ON MONDAY AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  69  86  68 /  70  60  20  10
BTR  81  70  85  69 /  80  60  20  10
ASD  82  68  86  67 /  90  80  30  20
MSY  81  72  83  73 /  90  80  30  20
GPT  80  69  85  68 /  90  80  30  20
PQL  81  68  84  65 / 100  90  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 11






000
FXUS64 KLIX 280802
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
302 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT HAS BEEN MUCH QUIETER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WE APPEAR TO BE B/T DISTURBANCES WITH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE STILL
BACK TO OUR WEST OVER TX. THIS HAS LED TO TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF
CONVECTION...ONE TO OUR EAST IN THE GULF AND THE SECOND MUCH LARGER
AREA TO OUR WEST AND SW. MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING AND TEMPS ARE
FAR WARMER TONIGHT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THE
AREA MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT 7Z.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A WET DAY TODAY JUST TIMING HAS BEEN A LITTLE
SLOWER. STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF TX TODAY. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVERRUNNING AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN GULF AND WITH THAT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND EMBEDDED
TSRA WILL IMPACT THE REGION. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS. OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING A GREAT DEAL OF RAINFALL.
LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF TSRA BUT EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR. COMBINE THAT WITH
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MAINLY ANTICIPATING
MODERATE SHRA. SPOTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TSRA
OCCUR BUT MAINLY LOOK FOR 1 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE ENE. LIGHT SHRA MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BEFORE WE TEMPORARILY DRY OUT
AS S/W RIDGING TAKES PLACE MON AFTN AND NIGHT. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WE SEE A
SLIGHT WARM UP JUST BEFORE OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS FRI WITH
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI WITH PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

WED AND THU...DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL SLOWLY WORK
EAST CAUSING THE S/W RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUE TO BREAK DOWN WITH SW
FLOW EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING. THE SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THU AS THE TROUGH AXIS WORKS ACROSS THE PLAINS THU NIGHT AND FRI.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE L/W TROUGH DOMINATING
THE ERN CONUS FRI AND DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS AND INTO THE SERN STATES. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SW WITH DEEP NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP
DRIVE A NICE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS DEEP INTO THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CNTRD OVER GULF COAST SUN
MORNING. IF EVERYTHING PLAYS OUT LIKE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED THEN
MORNING LOWS SUN COULD RANGE FROM NEAR 50 TO THE LOWER 60S. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. LIKEWISE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL IMPACT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. 11

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 7 AM TODAY. AN INVERTED
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHERLY ON MONDAY AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  69  86  68 /  70  60  20  10
BTR  81  70  85  69 /  80  60  20  10
ASD  82  68  86  67 /  90  80  30  20
MSY  81  72  83  73 /  90  80  30  20
GPT  80  69  85  68 /  90  80  30  20
PQL  81  68  84  65 / 100  90  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 11







000
FXUS64 KLIX 272331 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
631 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS HAS RESULTED IN VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION THUS FAR. SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS...KGPT...KASD 02-04Z AND
KBTR/KHDC AROUND 08Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
VISIBILITIES OF 1-3SM AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL END LATE SUNDAY
BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AN ISSUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. 14/MM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...

THE COMBINATION OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE MOVING
NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE ELONGATED TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF WILL BRING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FORCING INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DONALDSONVILLE
TO HAMMOND TO POPLARVILLE LINE. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE
HAVE PUT IN LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT AS FORCING AND THE AMOUNT OF
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED. LATE TONIGHT...SOME
HEAVIER RAINS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
COASTS. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE ELONGATED TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND SERVES AS A FOCAL
POINT FOR REPEATED HEAVIER CONVECTION.

THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SURFACE LOW IN A REGION OF ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS LOW INTENSIFIES...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLS TO THE
NORTHEAST...A REGION OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE POOL OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FIRST IMPROVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE BATON ROUGE AREA...AND THEN
FINALLY IMPROVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS.

LONG TERM...

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOR TUESDAY...AS THE TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP A
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DUE TO THE CONTINUED
PRESCENCE OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND A
MID-LEVEL CAP. AT MOST...SOME SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOP CAN
BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SINKING AIR ALOFT AND A DRIER AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND READINGS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WEAK
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND WILL THUS BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA INCLUDING METRO NEW
ORLEANS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AS A REGION OF INCREASING POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE GULF SOUTH.
WITH INCREASING OMEGA IN PLACE ALOFT AND THE WEAK WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE RACED INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO THE THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW. A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.

MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LEGS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THESE WATERS. AS THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT THEN WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE VARIABLE
TOMORROW AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TUESDAY AND SEAS WILL
FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  82  66  85 /  60  60  40  10
BTR  69  83  68  85 /  60  60  40  10
ASD  69  82  68  85 /  80  80  50  20
MSY  73  82  71  83 /  80  80  50  20
GPT  72  82  68  83 / 100 100  60  30
PQL  71  81  67  84 / 100 100  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 272109
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
409 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...

THE COMBINATION OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE MOVING
NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES IMPACTING
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THE ELONGATED TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF WILL BRING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FORCING INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE A SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DONALDSONVILLE
TO HAMMOND TO POPLARVILLE LINE. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE
HAVE PUT IN LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT AS FORCING AND THE AMOUNT OF
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED. LATE TONIGHT...SOME
HEAVIER RAINS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
COASTS. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS
THE ELONGATED TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND SERVES AS A FOCAL
POINT FOR REPEATED HEAVIER CONVECTION.

THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SURFACE LOW IN A REGION OF ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS LOW INTENSIFIES...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLS TO THE
NORTHEAST...A REGION OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THE POOL OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL FIRST IMPROVE
OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THE BATON ROUGE AREA...AND THEN
FINALLY IMPROVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS.

.LONG TERM...

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FOR TUESDAY...AS THE TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP A
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DUE TO THE CONTINUED
PRESCENCE OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND A
MID-LEVEL CAP. AT MOST...SOME SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOP CAN
BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. SINKING AIR ALOFT AND A DRIER AIRMASS
OVERALL WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGHS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND READINGS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S BOTH
DAYS. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WEAK
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND WILL THUS BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA INCLUDING METRO NEW
ORLEANS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY...AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AS A REGION OF INCREASING POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE GULF SOUTH.
WITH INCREASING OMEGA IN PLACE ALOFT AND THE WEAK WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST DUE TO THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVING INTO THE REGION.

ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE RACED INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO THE THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOW. A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND INTO
THE EARLY EVNG HRS WILL BE MVFR CIGS. BASES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-3K FT UNTIL RAIN STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND 2/3Z AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 5Z. LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEFORE
5Z WILL BE MSY/NEW/ASD/GPT/HUM. BTR AND HDC ALSO HAVE A DECENT SHOT
OF RAIN BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 5Z. RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH 15/18Z TOMORROW. CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR(700-1K) AT
TIMES ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN LEGS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THESE WATERS. AS THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEAKENS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT...BUT THEN WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE VARIABLE
TOMORROW AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO TURN FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TUESDAY AND SEAS WILL
FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SURGE
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  82  66  85 /  60  60  40  10
BTR  69  83  68  85 /  60  60  40  10
ASD  69  82  68  85 /  80  80  50  20
MSY  73  82  71  83 /  80  80  50  20
GPT  72  82  68  83 / 100 100  60  30
PQL  71  81  67  84 / 100 100  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

32






000
FXUS64 KLIX 271925
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
225 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AND INTO
THE EARLY EVNG HRS WILL BE MVFR CIGS. BASES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-3K FT UNTIL RAIN STARTS TO PUSH IN AROUND 2/3Z AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER 5Z. LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEFORE
5Z WILL BE MSY/NEW/ASD/GPT/HUM. BTR AND HDC ALSO HAVE A DECENT SHOT
OF RAIN BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 5Z. RAIN WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH 15/18Z TOMORROW. CIGS COULD DROP TO IFR(700-1K) AT
TIMES ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS ESPECIALLY WITH ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN. /CAB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  67  80  65 /  20  50  50  20
BTR  84  68  84  66 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  85  68  82  65 /  40  70  70  30
MSY  83  73  82  71 /  40  60  60  30
GPT  85  71  81  66 /  50  80  80  30
PQL  85  70  81  65 /  50  90  80  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KLIX 271818
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
118 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.MARINE...

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN LEGS OF THE
MARINE ZONES. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA HAS
ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO RISE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 7 FEET AS NOTED BY BUOY 42040. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE TREND OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT STILL
EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF EASES. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SHORTLY AFTER BALLOON RELEASE RH WAS LOST FOR AN UNKNOWN REASON
AND THIS IS WHY THERE IS NO DEWPOINT PROFILE ON THIS MORNING/S
SOUNDING. THE LACK OF THIS DATA MEANS THAT MANY CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS /CONVECTIVE TEMP...LI/TT/K INDEX...ETC/ AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ARE ERRONEOUS. MODELED PW VALUES AT
LAUNCH TIME WERE BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4 INCHES. BY THIS EVENING/S
BALLOON...PW VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES /1.8 INCHES IN 11Z
RUC TO 2.3 INCHES IN 3Z SREF/6Z GFS/.

THERE WERE TWO TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE FIRST BEING THE SURFACE
INVERSION AND THE OTHER INVERSION BEING LOCATED BETWEEN 860 AND
820MB. A NICE VEERING PROFILE THIS MORNING AS WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE AND THEN BECAME FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8000 FEET ON UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN BY LATE TODAY. A PEAK
WIND OF 44 KNOTS WAS FOUND AT 37000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND.

12Z BALLOON INFO: OUTSIDE OF THE RH ISSUE MENTIONED ABOVE THE
FLIGHT WAS SUCCESSFUL. THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 109 MINUTES TO A
HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND BURST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF PICAYUNE 14 MILES DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REMNANTS OF THE OLD COLD
FRONT REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND 27N.
ALOFT...WEAK UPPER LOWS ARE OVER IOWA AND WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER WEAK
TROF EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
GULF...BUT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS CONTINUES TO GET
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN
THE CIRRUS THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS FINALLY BEGINS LIFTING OUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. THE BEST INGREDIENTS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLACE. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY RAISE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE NAM IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AND AWAY FROM THE
NAM SOLUTION. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND MUCH OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OR TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BUSTED POP FORECAST IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND REMAINS THERE.

UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
PRETTY CLOSE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY...GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO WARM ON HIGHS FOR SUNDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT SOMEWHAT AND MAY
STILL NOT BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SUNDAY...WHERE PRECIPITATION COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS BELOW 80 DEGREES. PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA AT MIDWEEK WITH A COUPLE OF DRY
DAYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TOO
WARM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE BACKED THOSE OFF A FEW
DEGREES. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
ARE INCREASING IN AMPLITUDE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN
RIDGE-EASTERN TROF PATTERN RE-EMERGES. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LATER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY TO RAISE POPS SOMEWHAT
FOR AT LEAST ONE PERIOD DURING THAT TIME AS FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE ESTABLISHED. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP IN EXCESS OF
100 METERS FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP
FROM 16-18C TO 10-12C...WHICH WOULD INDICATE TEMPERATURES COOLING
10F OR MORE BY SUNDAY. WILL BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS NEXT SUNDAY
MORNING LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY...
HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY AT TAF SITES SITES CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN...HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WHEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. 11

MARINE...

MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OR WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AREA. SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FEET TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS BE LIGHT AND SEAS LOW DURING THE EARLY AND MID PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  67  80  65 /  20  50  50  20
BTR  84  68  84  66 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  85  68  82  65 /  40  70  70  30
MSY  83  73  82  71 /  40  60  60  30
GPT  85  71  81  66 /  50  80  80  30
PQL  85  70  81  65 /  50  90  80  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 271818
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
118 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.MARINE...

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN LEGS OF THE
MARINE ZONES. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA HAS
ALLOWED FOR WINDS TO RISE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 7 FEET AS NOTED BY BUOY 42040. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE TREND OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT STILL
EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF EASES. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SHORTLY AFTER BALLOON RELEASE RH WAS LOST FOR AN UNKNOWN REASON
AND THIS IS WHY THERE IS NO DEWPOINT PROFILE ON THIS MORNING/S
SOUNDING. THE LACK OF THIS DATA MEANS THAT MANY CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS /CONVECTIVE TEMP...LI/TT/K INDEX...ETC/ AND THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ARE ERRONEOUS. MODELED PW VALUES AT
LAUNCH TIME WERE BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4 INCHES. BY THIS EVENING/S
BALLOON...PW VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES /1.8 INCHES IN 11Z
RUC TO 2.3 INCHES IN 3Z SREF/6Z GFS/.

THERE WERE TWO TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE FIRST BEING THE SURFACE
INVERSION AND THE OTHER INVERSION BEING LOCATED BETWEEN 860 AND
820MB. A NICE VEERING PROFILE THIS MORNING AS WINDS WERE FROM
THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE AND THEN BECAME FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8000 FEET ON UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL MOVE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN BY LATE TODAY. A PEAK
WIND OF 44 KNOTS WAS FOUND AT 37000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND.

12Z BALLOON INFO: OUTSIDE OF THE RH ISSUE MENTIONED ABOVE THE
FLIGHT WAS SUCCESSFUL. THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 109 MINUTES TO A
HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND BURST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF PICAYUNE 14 MILES DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REMNANTS OF THE OLD COLD
FRONT REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND 27N.
ALOFT...WEAK UPPER LOWS ARE OVER IOWA AND WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER WEAK
TROF EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
GULF...BUT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS CONTINUES TO GET
TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN
THE CIRRUS THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS FINALLY BEGINS LIFTING OUT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. THE BEST INGREDIENTS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLACE. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS QUICKLY RAISE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE NAM IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE WETTER ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AND AWAY FROM THE
NAM SOLUTION. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND MUCH OF THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OR TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BUSTED POP FORECAST IF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND REMAINS THERE.

UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD BE LIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING
WITH DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
PRETTY CLOSE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. GENERALLY...GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO WARM ON HIGHS FOR SUNDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT SOMEWHAT AND MAY
STILL NOT BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SUNDAY...WHERE PRECIPITATION COULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS BELOW 80 DEGREES. PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON MONDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA AT MIDWEEK WITH A COUPLE OF DRY
DAYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TOO
WARM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE BACKED THOSE OFF A FEW
DEGREES. SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
ARE INCREASING IN AMPLITUDE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS A WESTERN
RIDGE-EASTERN TROF PATTERN RE-EMERGES. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LATER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY TO RAISE POPS SOMEWHAT
FOR AT LEAST ONE PERIOD DURING THAT TIME AS FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE ESTABLISHED. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES DROP IN EXCESS OF
100 METERS FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP
FROM 16-18C TO 10-12C...WHICH WOULD INDICATE TEMPERATURES COOLING
10F OR MORE BY SUNDAY. WILL BE HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH LOWS NEXT SUNDAY
MORNING LIKELY IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY...
HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY AT TAF SITES SITES CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN...HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY WHEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. 11

MARINE...

MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OR WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE AREA. SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FEET TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS BE LIGHT AND SEAS LOW DURING THE EARLY AND MID PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  67  80  65 /  20  50  50  20
BTR  84  68  84  66 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  85  68  82  65 /  40  70  70  30
MSY  83  73  82  71 /  40  60  60  30
GPT  85  71  81  66 /  50  80  80  30
PQL  85  70  81  65 /  50  90  80  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities