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000
FXUS64 KLIX 311113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY. BUT A COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH TODAY. DEW PTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN MCB BY SUNRISE AND SHOULD REACH ABOUT 63
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON. DP TEMPS WILL LOWER IN SLIDELL AROUND NOON
AND TO THE SOUTH SHORE SHORTLY AFTER. THIS CONTRAST TO THE DP
TEMPS THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER LATELY WILL BE FELT. THIS WILL ALSO
DO TWO THINGS. ONE WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE SECOND THING WILL BE TO KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES DOWN. TIMING OF SH/TS HAVE BEEN OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND THAT ALWAYS HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS AND THEREFORE HEAT
INDEX VALUES. BUT TODAY SHOULD NOT BE A TIMING ISSUE AS DRY AIR
WILL BE THE CAUSE OF LOWER HEAT INDICES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH BY SAT NIGHT BRINGING BACK THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP ALL SH/TS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT SO POP GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SET ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...
SH/TS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE WEEKEND...MOST SH/TS WILL
BE ACTIVATED BY C-BRZ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION AT KHUM WHERE
SOME TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT FOG.
MAINTAIN VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. 18

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TIDAL
AND EXTREME NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY AND STALL. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THICKNESS 1000-700MB SHOW A 10 TO 15 METER DROP TODAY. NORTH WINDS
WILL KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. THE STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST GULF AND YIELD A WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  96  70  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  92  72  94  70 /  40  10  10  10
MSY  93  78  93  79 /  40  10  10  20
GPT  93  74  92  71 /  40  20  20  20
PQL  94  75  91  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 311113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY. BUT A COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH TODAY. DEW PTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN MCB BY SUNRISE AND SHOULD REACH ABOUT 63
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON. DP TEMPS WILL LOWER IN SLIDELL AROUND NOON
AND TO THE SOUTH SHORE SHORTLY AFTER. THIS CONTRAST TO THE DP
TEMPS THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER LATELY WILL BE FELT. THIS WILL ALSO
DO TWO THINGS. ONE WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE SECOND THING WILL BE TO KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES DOWN. TIMING OF SH/TS HAVE BEEN OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND THAT ALWAYS HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS AND THEREFORE HEAT
INDEX VALUES. BUT TODAY SHOULD NOT BE A TIMING ISSUE AS DRY AIR
WILL BE THE CAUSE OF LOWER HEAT INDICES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH BY SAT NIGHT BRINGING BACK THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP ALL SH/TS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT SO POP GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SET ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...
SH/TS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE WEEKEND...MOST SH/TS WILL
BE ACTIVATED BY C-BRZ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION AT KHUM WHERE
SOME TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT FOG.
MAINTAIN VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. 18

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TIDAL
AND EXTREME NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY AND STALL. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THICKNESS 1000-700MB SHOW A 10 TO 15 METER DROP TODAY. NORTH WINDS
WILL KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. THE STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST GULF AND YIELD A WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  96  70  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  92  72  94  70 /  40  10  10  10
MSY  93  78  93  79 /  40  10  10  20
GPT  93  74  92  71 /  40  20  20  20
PQL  94  75  91  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 311113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY. BUT A COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH TODAY. DEW PTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN MCB BY SUNRISE AND SHOULD REACH ABOUT 63
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON. DP TEMPS WILL LOWER IN SLIDELL AROUND NOON
AND TO THE SOUTH SHORE SHORTLY AFTER. THIS CONTRAST TO THE DP
TEMPS THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER LATELY WILL BE FELT. THIS WILL ALSO
DO TWO THINGS. ONE WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE SECOND THING WILL BE TO KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES DOWN. TIMING OF SH/TS HAVE BEEN OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND THAT ALWAYS HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS AND THEREFORE HEAT
INDEX VALUES. BUT TODAY SHOULD NOT BE A TIMING ISSUE AS DRY AIR
WILL BE THE CAUSE OF LOWER HEAT INDICES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH BY SAT NIGHT BRINGING BACK THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP ALL SH/TS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT SO POP GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SET ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...
SH/TS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE WEEKEND...MOST SH/TS WILL
BE ACTIVATED BY C-BRZ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION AT KHUM WHERE
SOME TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT FOG.
MAINTAIN VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. 18

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TIDAL
AND EXTREME NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY AND STALL. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THICKNESS 1000-700MB SHOW A 10 TO 15 METER DROP TODAY. NORTH WINDS
WILL KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. THE STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST GULF AND YIELD A WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  96  70  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  92  72  94  70 /  40  10  10  10
MSY  93  78  93  79 /  40  10  10  20
GPT  93  74  92  71 /  40  20  20  20
PQL  94  75  91  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 311113
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY. BUT A COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH TODAY. DEW PTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN MCB BY SUNRISE AND SHOULD REACH ABOUT 63
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON. DP TEMPS WILL LOWER IN SLIDELL AROUND NOON
AND TO THE SOUTH SHORE SHORTLY AFTER. THIS CONTRAST TO THE DP
TEMPS THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER LATELY WILL BE FELT. THIS WILL ALSO
DO TWO THINGS. ONE WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE SECOND THING WILL BE TO KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES DOWN. TIMING OF SH/TS HAVE BEEN OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND THAT ALWAYS HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS AND THEREFORE HEAT
INDEX VALUES. BUT TODAY SHOULD NOT BE A TIMING ISSUE AS DRY AIR
WILL BE THE CAUSE OF LOWER HEAT INDICES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH BY SAT NIGHT BRINGING BACK THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP ALL SH/TS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT SO POP GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SET ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...
SH/TS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE WEEKEND...MOST SH/TS WILL
BE ACTIVATED BY C-BRZ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION AT KHUM WHERE
SOME TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT FOG.
MAINTAIN VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. 18

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TIDAL
AND EXTREME NEAR SHORE WATERS TODAY AND STALL. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THICKNESS 1000-700MB SHOW A 10 TO 15 METER DROP TODAY. NORTH WINDS
WILL KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. THE STALLED COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST GULF AND YIELD A WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  96  70  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  92  72  94  70 /  40  10  10  10
MSY  93  78  93  79 /  40  10  10  20
GPT  93  74  92  71 /  40  20  20  20
PQL  94  75  91  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 310915
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY. BUT A COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH TODAY. DEW PTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN MCB BY SUNRISE AND SHOULD REACH ABOUT 63
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON. DP TEMPS WILL LOWER IN SLIDELL AROUND NOON
AND TO THE SOUTH SHORE SHORTLY AFTER. THIS CONTRAST TO THE DP
TEMPS THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER LATELY WILL BE FELT. THIS WILL ALSO
DO TWO THINGS. ONE WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE SECOND THING WILL BE TO KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES DOWN. TIMING OF SH/TS HAVE BEEN OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND THAT ALWAYS HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS AND THEREFORE HEAT
INDEX VALUES. BUT TODAY SHOULD NOT BE A TIMING ISSUE AS DRY AIR
WILL BE THE CAUSE OF LOWER HEAT INDICES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH BY SAT NIGHT BRINGING BACK THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP ALL SH/TS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT SO POP GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SET ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...
SH/TS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE WEEKEND...MOST SH/TS WILL
BE ACTIVATED BY C-BRZ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT TAF SITES BRIEFLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY GPT...ASD...MCB...HDC...NEW...BTR
AND MSY 21Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  96  70  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  92  72  94  70 /  40  10  10  10
MSY  93  78  93  79 /  40  10  10  20
GPT  93  74  92  71 /  40  20  20  20
PQL  94  75  91  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310915
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY. BUT A COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH TODAY. DEW PTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN MCB BY SUNRISE AND SHOULD REACH ABOUT 63
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON. DP TEMPS WILL LOWER IN SLIDELL AROUND NOON
AND TO THE SOUTH SHORE SHORTLY AFTER. THIS CONTRAST TO THE DP
TEMPS THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER LATELY WILL BE FELT. THIS WILL ALSO
DO TWO THINGS. ONE WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE SECOND THING WILL BE TO KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES DOWN. TIMING OF SH/TS HAVE BEEN OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND THAT ALWAYS HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS AND THEREFORE HEAT
INDEX VALUES. BUT TODAY SHOULD NOT BE A TIMING ISSUE AS DRY AIR
WILL BE THE CAUSE OF LOWER HEAT INDICES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH BY SAT NIGHT BRINGING BACK THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP ALL SH/TS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT SO POP GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SET ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...
SH/TS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE WEEKEND...MOST SH/TS WILL
BE ACTIVATED BY C-BRZ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT TAF SITES BRIEFLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY GPT...ASD...MCB...HDC...NEW...BTR
AND MSY 21Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  96  70  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  92  72  94  70 /  40  10  10  10
MSY  93  78  93  79 /  40  10  10  20
GPT  93  74  92  71 /  40  20  20  20
PQL  94  75  91  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 310915
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
415 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY. BUT A COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH TODAY. DEW PTS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN MCB BY SUNRISE AND SHOULD REACH ABOUT 63
DEGREES BY AFTERNOON. DP TEMPS WILL LOWER IN SLIDELL AROUND NOON
AND TO THE SOUTH SHORE SHORTLY AFTER. THIS CONTRAST TO THE DP
TEMPS THAT WE HAVE BEEN UNDER LATELY WILL BE FELT. THIS WILL ALSO
DO TWO THINGS. ONE WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE SECOND THING WILL BE TO KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX VALUES DOWN. TIMING OF SH/TS HAVE BEEN OFF THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND THAT ALWAYS HAS A MAJOR IMPACT ON TEMPS AND THEREFORE HEAT
INDEX VALUES. BUT TODAY SHOULD NOT BE A TIMING ISSUE AS DRY AIR
WILL BE THE CAUSE OF LOWER HEAT INDICES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH BY SAT NIGHT BRINGING BACK THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP ALL SH/TS ACTIVITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT SO POP GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN SET ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...
SH/TS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BACK TO THE AREA ONCE THE COLD FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AFTER THE WEEKEND...MOST SH/TS WILL
BE ACTIVATED BY C-BRZ AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT TAF SITES BRIEFLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY GPT...ASD...MCB...HDC...NEW...BTR
AND MSY 21Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  68  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  96  70  95  70 /  10  10   0   0
ASD  92  72  94  70 /  40  10  10  10
MSY  93  78  93  79 /  40  10  10  20
GPT  93  74  92  71 /  40  20  20  20
PQL  94  75  91  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310504
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS HEADING SOUTH WITH A MID SUMMER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED IN
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NOW MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE REMOVED OR
LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF THE RAIN
COOLED AIR. UPDATED HAVE BEEN SENT. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION AT KHUM WHERE
SOME TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT FOG. LESS
SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THERE IS
A HIGHER POP. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE DATA FROM THE 0Z RELEASE WAS COMING IN SUSPECT AT
TIMES... BUT THE SMOOTHED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES STILL
APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR
AT THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN AN INVERSION LAYER UP TO ABOUT 875 MB.
ABOVE THIS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH 1900 J/KG MU
CAPE. INDEED THERE ARE STORMS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AT 550 MB IS INDICATIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM BEING UNDER THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 2.22 INCHES AND WINDS ARE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  75  96  71  95 /  20  20  10   0
ASD  76  94  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
MSY  78  93  79  93 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  77  92  75  92 /  20  30  20  20
PQL  76  92  74  92 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310504
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS HEADING SOUTH WITH A MID SUMMER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED IN
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NOW MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE REMOVED OR
LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF THE RAIN
COOLED AIR. UPDATED HAVE BEEN SENT. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION AT KHUM WHERE
SOME TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT FOG. LESS
SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THERE IS
A HIGHER POP. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE DATA FROM THE 0Z RELEASE WAS COMING IN SUSPECT AT
TIMES... BUT THE SMOOTHED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES STILL
APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR
AT THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN AN INVERSION LAYER UP TO ABOUT 875 MB.
ABOVE THIS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH 1900 J/KG MU
CAPE. INDEED THERE ARE STORMS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AT 550 MB IS INDICATIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM BEING UNDER THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 2.22 INCHES AND WINDS ARE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  75  96  71  95 /  20  20  10   0
ASD  76  94  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
MSY  78  93  79  93 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  77  92  75  92 /  20  30  20  20
PQL  76  92  74  92 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310504
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1204 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS HEADING SOUTH WITH A MID SUMMER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED IN
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE NOW MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE REMOVED OR
LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY AND LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF THE RAIN
COOLED AIR. UPDATED HAVE BEEN SENT. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION AT KHUM WHERE
SOME TEMPO MVFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT FOG. LESS
SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR THE AIRPORTS CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THERE IS
A HIGHER POP. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE DATA FROM THE 0Z RELEASE WAS COMING IN SUSPECT AT
TIMES... BUT THE SMOOTHED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES STILL
APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR
AT THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN AN INVERSION LAYER UP TO ABOUT 875 MB.
ABOVE THIS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH 1900 J/KG MU
CAPE. INDEED THERE ARE STORMS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AT 550 MB IS INDICATIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM BEING UNDER THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 2.22 INCHES AND WINDS ARE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  70  94 /  10  10   0   0
BTR  75  96  71  95 /  20  20  10   0
ASD  76  94  74  93 /  20  30  20  10
MSY  78  93  79  93 /  20  30  20  20
GPT  77  92  75  92 /  20  30  20  20
PQL  76  92  74  92 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 310140
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE DATA FROM THE 0Z RELEASE WAS COMING IN SUSPECT AT
TIMES... BUT THE SMOOTHED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES STILL
APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR
AT THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN AN INVERSION LAYER UP TO ABOUT 875 MB.
ABOVE THIS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH 1900 J/KG MU
CAPE. INDEED THERE ARE STORMS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AT 550 MB IS INDICATIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM BEING UNDER THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 2.22 INCHES AND WINDS ARE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 310140
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE DATA FROM THE 0Z RELEASE WAS COMING IN SUSPECT AT
TIMES... BUT THE SMOOTHED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES STILL
APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR
AT THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN AN INVERSION LAYER UP TO ABOUT 875 MB.
ABOVE THIS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH 1900 J/KG MU
CAPE. INDEED THERE ARE STORMS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AT 550 MB IS INDICATIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM BEING UNDER THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 2.22 INCHES AND WINDS ARE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310140
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE DATA FROM THE 0Z RELEASE WAS COMING IN SUSPECT AT
TIMES... BUT THE SMOOTHED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES STILL
APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR
AT THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN AN INVERSION LAYER UP TO ABOUT 875 MB.
ABOVE THIS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH 1900 J/KG MU
CAPE. INDEED THERE ARE STORMS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AT 550 MB IS INDICATIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM BEING UNDER THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 2.22 INCHES AND WINDS ARE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 310140
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE DATA FROM THE 0Z RELEASE WAS COMING IN SUSPECT AT
TIMES... BUT THE SMOOTHED TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRACES STILL
APPEAR REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. RAIN COOLED AIR
AT THE SFC HAS RESULTED IN AN INVERSION LAYER UP TO ABOUT 875 MB.
ABOVE THIS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH 1900 J/KG MU
CAPE. INDEED THERE ARE STORMS ONGOING IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION LAYER AT 550 MB IS INDICATIVE
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM BEING UNDER THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 2.22 INCHES AND WINDS ARE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PROFILE.

KRAUTMANN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310000 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310000 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310000 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS
RELATED TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS
OUTFLOW HAS COOLED EVERYONE IN THE ADVISORY OFF. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO MIRROR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...

WILL HOLD ONTO CONVECTION AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL 02Z-03Z BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR. SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION BY LATE MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KMCB. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 302027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>065-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 302027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND SINKING ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10-12 CORRIDOR MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST. WHERE IT IS NOT
RAINING...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 105 TO 113
IN MANY AREAS...WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY
EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

QUESTION OF THE DAY IS EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE
STALLING OUT. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO NEAR THE COAST...BUT
DRIER AIR LAGS THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE BY ABOUT 150 MILES. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AS CONVECTION LIKELY TO HANG ON UNTIL
02Z OR SO. FIRING POINT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT FURTHER
SOUTH TOMORROW AND WILL KEEP NORTHWEST SECTIONS DRY...WITH CHANCE
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...AND NOT MUCH MORE
THAN 20-30 POPS.

HIGHS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT
NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COOL
ON LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING AS MET GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE. THAT WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW MORNINGS. WITH LOWER DEW POINTS...SHOULD
AVOID HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY A FEW DEGREES. WILL NOT GO QUITE
AS LOW ON DEW POINTS AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO ANCHOR OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW IMPULSES TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...WITH A ROUND
OR TWO OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS GFS
GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE. DRY AIR WILL WASH OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CURRENT LEVELS BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. SHRA
AND TSRA WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THROUGH
2Z. AFTER THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PUSH SOUTH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MARINE FCST. GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS EXPECTED TO ENTIRE TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 12 KTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT WILL STALL THERE AND THEN LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY ISSUES TO RECREATIONAL
BOATING WILL BE CONVECTION AS SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS...SEAS...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.
/CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  94  70  94 /  30  10   0   0
BTR  77  96  71  95 /  30  20  10   0
ASD  79  94  74  93 /  40  30  20  10
MSY  81  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  20
GPT  79  92  75  92 /  40  30  20  20
PQL  78  92  74  92 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>065-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300842
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. NUMBERS CONTINUE
TO REFLECT SH/TS DEVELOPING BEFORE INDEX VALUES REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. PROBLEM WITH THIS IS TIMING. IF SH/TS DEVELOP LATER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN OBVIOUSLY THERE WILL BE MORE HEATING AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKE YESTERDAY. WE EXPECT SH/TS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AND SHOULD BE EARLY ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER
FOR MOST AREAS. AGAIN...REGARDLESS OF CRITERIA REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY STATUS...CAUTION NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH THE HEAT.
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPPED FROM SOUTH GEORGIA TO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS PROVIDING A NICE AREA OF SUPPORT AND A
FOCUS FOR SH/TS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST OVER THE
GULF. A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE SH/TS
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...
MORE OF THE SAME BUT SH/TS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DAY AFTER
DAY. TIMING WILL ALWAYS BE AN ISSUE WITH TS INITIALIZATION. IF
ACTIVITY STARTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE GULF AND THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS AWAY. BUT WE WILL SEE
SOME PULSING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT TAF SITES BRIEFLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY GPT...ASD...MCB...HDC...NEW...BTR
AND MSY 21Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  75  94  72 /  40  20  20  10
BTR  97  77  95  74 /  40  30  30  20
ASD  95  78  94  76 /  50  40  40  20
MSY  95  81  94  80 /  50  50  40  20
GPT  94  78  92  76 /  50  50  40  20
PQL  94  78  92  74 /  60  60  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300842
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
342 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AGAIN THE HEAT WILL BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. NUMBERS CONTINUE
TO REFLECT SH/TS DEVELOPING BEFORE INDEX VALUES REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. PROBLEM WITH THIS IS TIMING. IF SH/TS DEVELOP LATER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN OBVIOUSLY THERE WILL BE MORE HEATING AND HIGHER
HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKE YESTERDAY. WE EXPECT SH/TS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AND SHOULD BE EARLY ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME CLOUD COVER
FOR MOST AREAS. AGAIN...REGARDLESS OF CRITERIA REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY STATUS...CAUTION NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH THE HEAT.
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPPED FROM SOUTH GEORGIA TO THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS PROVIDING A NICE AREA OF SUPPORT AND A
FOCUS FOR SH/TS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST OVER THE
GULF. A SFC LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE SH/TS
ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...
MORE OF THE SAME BUT SH/TS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DAY AFTER
DAY. TIMING WILL ALWAYS BE AN ISSUE WITH TS INITIALIZATION. IF
ACTIVITY STARTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED. LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE GULF AND THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS AWAY. BUT WE WILL SEE
SOME PULSING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT TAF SITES BRIEFLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY GPT...ASD...MCB...HDC...NEW...BTR
AND MSY 21Z TODAY THROUGH 02Z FRIDAY. 18

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  96  75  94  72 /  40  20  20  10
BTR  97  77  95  74 /  40  30  30  20
ASD  95  78  94  76 /  50  40  40  20
MSY  95  81  94  80 /  50  50  40  20
GPT  94  78  92  76 /  50  50  40  20
PQL  94  78  92  74 /  60  60  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
958 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TONIGHT TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES IN MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES IN COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCED EVENING LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WERE BELOW THE FORECAST
LOWS OVERNIGHT...SO UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT A FEW AIRPORTS LATE THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER CHANCES AFTER 06Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AWAY FROM CONVECTION. SCATTERED TSRA WITH POSSIBLE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVEMENT
AND GENERALLY SMALLER STORMS NOT GOING TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN. HOWEVER... STORMS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWN BURSTS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THAT THREAT. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF A
SLIDELL TO NEW ORLEANS LINE ALTHOUGH MAJORITY WILL BE OFFSHORE.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WEST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE 4-
CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES FROM MAKING IT TO HEAT ADVISORY VALUES. ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE TROUGH TO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL
LOWER CWA RAIN CHANCES.

MEFFER &&

AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A BROAD SURFACE LOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS INTO
IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO NOCTURNAL
JET BRINGING SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT TOMORROW CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
GREATER COVERAGE AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH          VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY                  TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE
RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  10
BTR  76  95  76  94 /  30  40  30  40
ASD  75  94  78  90 /  50  50  40  50
MSY  76  91  81  90 /  50  50  50  50
GPT  75  89  79  87 /  30  50  50  50
PQL  77  91  77  87 /  30  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
958 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TONIGHT TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES IN MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES IN COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCED EVENING LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WERE BELOW THE FORECAST
LOWS OVERNIGHT...SO UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT A FEW AIRPORTS LATE THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER CHANCES AFTER 06Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AWAY FROM CONVECTION. SCATTERED TSRA WITH POSSIBLE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVEMENT
AND GENERALLY SMALLER STORMS NOT GOING TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN. HOWEVER... STORMS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWN BURSTS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THAT THREAT. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF A
SLIDELL TO NEW ORLEANS LINE ALTHOUGH MAJORITY WILL BE OFFSHORE.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WEST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE 4-
CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES FROM MAKING IT TO HEAT ADVISORY VALUES. ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE TROUGH TO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL
LOWER CWA RAIN CHANCES.

MEFFER &&

AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A BROAD SURFACE LOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS INTO
IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO NOCTURNAL
JET BRINGING SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT TOMORROW CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
GREATER COVERAGE AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH          VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY                  TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE
RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  10
BTR  76  95  76  94 /  30  40  30  40
ASD  75  94  78  90 /  50  50  40  50
MSY  76  91  81  90 /  50  50  50  50
GPT  75  89  79  87 /  30  50  50  50
PQL  77  91  77  87 /  30  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
958 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TONIGHT TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES IN MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES IN COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCED EVENING LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WERE BELOW THE FORECAST
LOWS OVERNIGHT...SO UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS FOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT A FEW AIRPORTS LATE THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER CHANCES AFTER 06Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AWAY FROM CONVECTION. SCATTERED TSRA WITH POSSIBLE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVEMENT
AND GENERALLY SMALLER STORMS NOT GOING TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN. HOWEVER... STORMS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWN BURSTS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THAT THREAT. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF A
SLIDELL TO NEW ORLEANS LINE ALTHOUGH MAJORITY WILL BE OFFSHORE.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WEST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE 4-
CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES FROM MAKING IT TO HEAT ADVISORY VALUES. ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE TROUGH TO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL
LOWER CWA RAIN CHANCES.

MEFFER &&

AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A BROAD SURFACE LOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS INTO
IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO NOCTURNAL
JET BRINGING SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT TOMORROW CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
GREATER COVERAGE AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH          VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY                  TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE
RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  10
BTR  76  95  76  94 /  30  40  30  40
ASD  75  94  78  90 /  50  50  40  50
MSY  76  91  81  90 /  50  50  50  50
GPT  75  89  79  87 /  30  50  50  50
PQL  77  91  77  87 /  30  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVEMENT
AND GENERALLY SMALLER STORMS NOT GOING TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN. HOWEVER... STORMS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWN BURSTS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THAT THREAT. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF A
SLIDELL TO NEW ORLEANS LINE ALTHOUGH MAJORITY WILL BE OFFSHORE.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WEST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE 4-
CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES FROM MAKING IT TO HEAT ADVISORY VALUES. ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE TROUGH TO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL
LOWER CWA RAIN CHANCES.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A BROAD SURFACE LOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS INTO
IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO NOCTURNAL
JET BRINGING SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT TOMORROW CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
GREATER COVERAGE AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH          VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY                  TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE
RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  10
BTR  76  95  76  94 /  20  40  30  40
ASD  77  94  78  90 /  40  50  40  50
MSY  79  91  81  90 /  30  50  50  50
GPT  78  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  50
PQL  77  91  77  87 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVEMENT
AND GENERALLY SMALLER STORMS NOT GOING TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN. HOWEVER... STORMS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWN BURSTS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THAT THREAT. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF A
SLIDELL TO NEW ORLEANS LINE ALTHOUGH MAJORITY WILL BE OFFSHORE.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WEST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE 4-
CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES FROM MAKING IT TO HEAT ADVISORY VALUES. ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE TROUGH TO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL
LOWER CWA RAIN CHANCES.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A BROAD SURFACE LOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS INTO
IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO NOCTURNAL
JET BRINGING SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT TOMORROW CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
GREATER COVERAGE AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH          VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY                  TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE
RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  10
BTR  76  95  76  94 /  20  40  30  40
ASD  77  94  78  90 /  40  50  40  50
MSY  79  91  81  90 /  30  50  50  50
GPT  78  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  50
PQL  77  91  77  87 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 291252
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR THIS MORNING. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE IS AT 19.3C WITH THE
925MB TEMPERATURE AT 24.7C. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE COLUMN
IS 1.97 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MEAN STORM MOTION FROM
72 AT ONLY 2 KNOTS AND HIGH PW VALUES...SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. NOW...MUCH DRIER AIR EXISTS ABOVE 12000 FEET
AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE 1340 J/KG DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THAT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL THREAT IS
REALLY LIMITED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL QUITE HIGH NEAR 17500
FEET. WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 2800 FEET...THEN
ATTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 4200 FEET THROUGH THE
TROPOPAUSE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 46200
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND DURING ITS 103 MINUTE ASCENT BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 43
MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SH/TS SHOULD FIRE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND
MOVE WSW. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE AT A HIGH
FREQUENCY. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE THE CASE...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SEVERE TS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE TUNE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG TERM...
THE FINALLY DEPARTING STACKED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SLOWLLY FILL BEHIND IT CAUSING THE
PATTERN OF SH/TS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY TO OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGPT...KMSY...
KNEW...KASD AND KHUM. 11

MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  94  75 /  30  30  50  30
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  50
ASD  96  77  95  78 /  40  30  40  50
MSY  94  79  92  81 /  40  30  40  50
GPT  95  78  90  79 /  40  40  50  50
PQL  95  77  92  77 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 291252
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR THIS MORNING. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE IS AT 19.3C WITH THE
925MB TEMPERATURE AT 24.7C. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE COLUMN
IS 1.97 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MEAN STORM MOTION FROM
72 AT ONLY 2 KNOTS AND HIGH PW VALUES...SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. NOW...MUCH DRIER AIR EXISTS ABOVE 12000 FEET
AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE 1340 J/KG DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THAT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL THREAT IS
REALLY LIMITED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL QUITE HIGH NEAR 17500
FEET. WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 2800 FEET...THEN
ATTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 4200 FEET THROUGH THE
TROPOPAUSE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 46200
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND DURING ITS 103 MINUTE ASCENT BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 43
MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SH/TS SHOULD FIRE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND
MOVE WSW. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE AT A HIGH
FREQUENCY. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE THE CASE...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SEVERE TS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE TUNE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG TERM...
THE FINALLY DEPARTING STACKED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SLOWLLY FILL BEHIND IT CAUSING THE
PATTERN OF SH/TS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY TO OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGPT...KMSY...
KNEW...KASD AND KHUM. 11

MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  94  75 /  30  30  50  30
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  50
ASD  96  77  95  78 /  40  30  40  50
MSY  94  79  92  81 /  40  30  40  50
GPT  95  78  90  79 /  40  40  50  50
PQL  95  77  92  77 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 291252
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR THIS MORNING. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE IS AT 19.3C WITH THE
925MB TEMPERATURE AT 24.7C. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE COLUMN
IS 1.97 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MEAN STORM MOTION FROM
72 AT ONLY 2 KNOTS AND HIGH PW VALUES...SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. NOW...MUCH DRIER AIR EXISTS ABOVE 12000 FEET
AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE 1340 J/KG DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THAT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL THREAT IS
REALLY LIMITED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL QUITE HIGH NEAR 17500
FEET. WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 2800 FEET...THEN
ATTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 4200 FEET THROUGH THE
TROPOPAUSE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 46200
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND DURING ITS 103 MINUTE ASCENT BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 43
MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SH/TS SHOULD FIRE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND
MOVE WSW. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE AT A HIGH
FREQUENCY. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE THE CASE...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SEVERE TS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE TUNE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG TERM...
THE FINALLY DEPARTING STACKED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SLOWLLY FILL BEHIND IT CAUSING THE
PATTERN OF SH/TS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY TO OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGPT...KMSY...
KNEW...KASD AND KHUM. 11

MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  94  75 /  30  30  50  30
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  50
ASD  96  77  95  78 /  40  30  40  50
MSY  94  79  92  81 /  40  30  40  50
GPT  95  78  90  79 /  40  40  50  50
PQL  95  77  92  77 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 290809
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
309 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SH/TS SHOULD FIRE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND
MOVE WSW. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE AT A HIGH
FREQUENCY. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE THE CASE...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SEVERE TS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE TUNE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...
THE FINALLY DEPARTING STACKED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SLOWLLY FILL BEHIND IT CAUSING THE
PATTERN OF SH/TS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY TO OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS
INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGPT...KMSY...
KNEW...KASD AND KHUM. 11

&&

.MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  94  75 /  30  30  50  30
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  50
ASD  96  77  95  78 /  40  30  40  50
MSY  94  79  92  81 /  40  30  40  50
GPT  95  78  90  79 /  40  40  50  50
PQL  95  77  92  77 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 290424
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5KFT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  75  94 /  10  20  40  50
BTR  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  40
ASD  76  96  77  95 /  10  20  40  40
MSY  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  30  40
GPT  77  95  78  90 /  10  20  40  50
PQL  76  95  77  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 290424
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5KFT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  75  94 /  10  20  40  50
BTR  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  40
ASD  76  96  77  95 /  10  20  40  40
MSY  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  30  40
GPT  77  95  78  90 /  10  20  40  50
PQL  76  95  77  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 290424
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5KFT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  75  94 /  10  20  40  50
BTR  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  40
ASD  76  96  77  95 /  10  20  40  40
MSY  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  30  40
GPT  77  95  78  90 /  10  20  40  50
PQL  76  95  77  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 282026
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE JUST BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME COULD INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND BEGIN DISSIPATING WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL BEGIN
RETROGRADING WEST BENINNING WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE
WILL OPEN THE CWA BACK UP TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WED ONWARD. SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS NORTH AND
STRETCHES SW TO NE WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY & INTO NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. BY MID WEEK...A BROAD
SURFACE LOW DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL
DRAW WINDS INTO IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.  THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET
OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  75  94 /  10  20  40  50
BTR  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  40
ASD  76  96  77  95 /  10  20  40  40
MSY  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  30  40
GPT  77  95  78  90 /  10  20  40  50
PQL  76  95  77  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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