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000
FXUS64 KLIX 160314
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1014 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA STILL BEING MET IN THE OPEN COASTAL
WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISHING STEADILY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ABATES. WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY RATHER QUICKLY AND
ESTABLISH SOME BAROCLINIC TIGHTENING FOR MODERATE WIND LEVELS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO FLIGHT THIS EVENING BUT THE REPLACEMENT PART DID ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...HAS BEEN INSTALLED AND TESTED OUT OKAY. SOUNDINGS WILL
RESUME AT 12Z.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S. COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPS DOWN IN TO THE MID
30S OVER THE NORTH SHORE WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY FROM FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. THE LIGHT BREEZE
SHOULD HELP KEEP FROST FROM DEVELOPING.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON BOTH
THE DAYTIME AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS. 07/AM

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...WITH
THE GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
WENT WITH MORE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHTING
TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

EXPECT TO SEE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIG INTO THE PLAINS STATES DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ALSO TRANSIT
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG OMEGA IN RELATION TO THESE
SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER POPS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700
AND 850MB...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO A LACK
SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD
OF THE GULF SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING WILL BE PLACED WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
LOW.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A WEAK SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS...COMBINED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 32/PG

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. 07/AM

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW...OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT TO
SEE WINDS DROP BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE DURING THE
DAY...AND GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.
UNFORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. EASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL
FALL TO 3 FEET OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. 32/PG

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  64  44  69 /   0   0  10  20
BTR  37  65  47  71 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  37  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  44  62  53  70 /   0   0  10  20
GPT  40  64  53  69 /   0   0  10  20
PQL  36  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR








000
FXUS64 KLIX 152044
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S. COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPS DOWN IN TO THE MID
30S OVER THE NORTH SHORE WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY FROM FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. THE LIGHT BREEZE
SHOULD HELP KEEP FROST FROM DEVELOPING.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON BOTH
THE DAYTIME AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS. 07/AM

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...WITH
THE GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
WENT WITH MORE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHTING
TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

EXPECT TO SEE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIG INTO THE PLAINS STATES DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ALSO TRANSIT
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG OMEGA IN RELATION TO THESE
SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER POPS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700
AND 850MB...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO A LACK
SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD
OF THE GULF SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING WILL BE PLACED WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
LOW.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A WEAK SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS...COMBINED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 32/PG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. 07/AM

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW...OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT TO
SEE WINDS DROP BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE DURING THE
DAY...AND GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.
UNFORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. EASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL
FALL TO 3 FEET OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. 32/PG

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  64  44  69 /   0   0  10  20
BTR  37  65  47  71 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  37  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  44  62  53  70 /   0   0  10  20
GPT  40  64  53  69 /   0   0  10  20
PQL  36  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 151138
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
638 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THERE WILL BE NO UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM LIX AGAIN THIS MORNING AS
THERE IS A SERIOUS EQUIPMENT PROBLEM WHICH IS NOT ALLOWING THE
RADIOSONDE TO SPEAK TO THE DATA COLLECTION SYSTEM. WE ARE
AGGRESSIVELY WORKING THE PROBLEM AND HOPE TO HAVE UPPER AIR DATA
FOR THE 00Z LAUNCH THIS EVENING.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL LAND AREAS AS OF 3 AM...WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM GULFPORT TO GRAND ISLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WHERE
WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT.

SHORT TERM...

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH
ALL AREAS SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
HAS COME UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW
CARRYING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE AT MOST SITES. WILL MENTION COLD
TEMPERATURES IN HWO AND PROBABLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING COLD TEMPERATURES.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
MONDAY...AND ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
MODERATION WILL BEGIN THEN...BUT EVEN THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
DETAILS IN EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CARRY
THURSDAYS SHORTWAVE OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT ECMWF UNCHARACTERISTICALLY CUTS OFF A LOW IN THE SAME
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH STALLS THE PATTERN BRIEFLY. THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED BY WPC...LENDING SOMEWHAT MORE
CREDENCE TO GFS SOLUTION. A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH MODELS PICK UP ON THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT ECMWF SOLUTION DOES NOT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA.

WILL CARRY SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND THEN DRY UNTIL THE MONDAY
SHORTWAVE...WHERE SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35

AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT
THE TAF SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY. 11

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 11 AM TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY LOCALLY STRONG
MAGNITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
             WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ORLEANS PARISH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  34  64  44 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  61  35  67  48 /  10   0  10  10
ASD  62  34  65  48 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  62  44  65  54 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  63  38  65  52 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  62  35  65  49 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER
     ST. BERNARD.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 150833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL LAND AREAS AS OF 3 AM...WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM GULFPORT TO GRAND ISLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WHERE
WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH
ALL AREAS SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
HAS COME UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW
CARRYING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE AT MOST SITES. WILL MENTION COLD
TEMPERATURES IN HWO AND PROBABLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING COLD TEMPERATURES.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
MONDAY...AND ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
MODERATION WILL BEGIN THEN...BUT EVEN THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
DETAILS IN EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CARRY
THURSDAYS SHORTWAVE OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT ECMWF UNCHARACTERISTICALLY CUTS OFF A LOW IN THE SAME
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH STALLS THE PATTERN BRIEFLY. THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED BY WPC...LENDING SOMEWHAT MORE
CREDENCE TO GFS SOLUTION. A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH MODELS PICK UP ON THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT ECMWF SOLUTION DOES NOT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA.

WILL CARRY SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND THEN DRY UNTIL THE MONDAY
SHORTWAVE...WHERE SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT
THE TAF SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 11 AM TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY LOCALLY STRONG
MAGNITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
             WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ORLEANS PARISH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  34  64  44 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  61  35  67  48 /  10   0  10  10
ASD  62  34  65  48 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  62  44  65  54 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  63  38  65  52 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  62  35  65  49 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER
     ST. BERNARD.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 150421 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVING CONVECTIVE HEADLINES FROM PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. ALL
WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED AT 11 PM. THE COASTAL AND WIND BASED WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS IN THE
SHORT-TERM TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CAVOK BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY...PARTICULARLY AT KNEW WITH WARM WATER/COLD AIR
INTERACTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINTAINING GALE WARNINGS WHICH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE BACK END
A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DROP DURING SHARP
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO SOUNDING THIS EVENING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ATTEMPTING TO
LOCK ON TO INSTRUMENT DURING BASELINE WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE LAUNCH WINDOW. WE HAVE A 1 HOUR WINDOW TO LAUNCH BETWEEN
00Z-01Z TO MAKE CUT-OFF FOR DATA INGEST INTO MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...TENTATIVE SURVEY TEAM TO JACKSON CO MS TUE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MOST OF
THE AREA (EXCEPT THE FAR NW ZONES) UNTIL 04Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE. THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
SE LA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THE MS COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH
08Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY.

14/MM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
TO ADD WATCH HEADLINES FOR EXTENSION OF WS 81...NOW TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE CWA UNTIL 9 PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
KEPT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A TREND
TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND PW VALUES RUNNING
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...SO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND AS A RESULT ELEVATED. OVERALL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARMER WATERS
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER METRO NEW
ORLEANS TONIGHT. AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL FALL BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE LARGE BATTERING
WAVES IMPACTING THE ORLEANS PARISH SHORELINE ALONG LAKESHORE
DRIVE. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LEVEE PROTECTION ALONG THE LAKEFRONT IN NEW ORLEANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AS A DEEP COLD POOL
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME TO SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO FREEZING...BUT AT THIS TIME A FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...FROST COULD BE A CONCERN. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER REVIEWING THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO TOSS
OUT THE GFS MODEL RUN AND WENT EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE EURO. WITH
THAT IN MIND...EXPECT A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERALL OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

AVIATION...

IN GENERAL...MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 3 TO 5
MILES. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES TO THE TERMINALS...RESULTING
IN IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 14Z TONIGHT
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE FORMS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW...AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG WINDS IMPACTING KNEW
AND KMSY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KNEW.

MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MARINE ZONE
WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ROUGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN
THREATS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  61  33  64 /  90  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  34  66 /  90  10   0   0
ASD  49  62  33  65 /  90  20   0   0
MSY  50  61  43  65 /  90  20   0   0
GPT  52  63  37  65 /  90  20   0   0
PQL  52  62  34  65 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER
     ST. BERNARD.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

24/RR








000
FXUS64 KLIX 150153 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
853 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MOST OF
THE AREA (EXCEPT THE FAR NW ZONES) UNTIL 04Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE. THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
SE LA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THE MS COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH
08Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY.

14/MM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
TO ADD WATCH HEADLINES FOR EXTENSION OF WS 81...NOW TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE CWA UNTIL 9 PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
KEPT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A TREND
TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND PW VALUES RUNNING
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...SO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND AS A RESULT ELEVATED. OVERALL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARMER WATERS
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER METRO NEW
ORLEANS TONIGHT. AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL FALL BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE LARGE BATTERING
WAVES IMPACTING THE ORLEANS PARISH SHORELINE ALONG LAKESHORE
DRIVE. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LEVEE PROTECTION ALONG THE LAKEFRONT IN NEW ORLEANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AS A DEEP COLD POOL
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME TO SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO FREEZING...BUT AT THIS TIME A FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...FROST COULD BE A CONCERN. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER REVIEWING THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO TOSS
OUT THE GFS MODEL RUN AND WENT EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE EURO. WITH
THAT IN MIND...EXPECT A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERALL OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

AVIATION...

IN GENERAL...MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 3 TO 5
MILES. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES TO THE TERMINALS...RESULTING
IN IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 14Z TONIGHT
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE FORMS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW...AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG WINDS IMPACTING KNEW
AND KMSY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KNEW.

MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MARINE ZONE
WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ROUGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN
THREATS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  61  33  64 /  90  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  34  66 /  90  10   0   0
ASD  49  62  33  65 /  90  10   0   0
MSY  50  61  43  65 /  90  10   0   0
GPT  52  63  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
PQL  52  62  34  65 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER
     ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 142319 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
619 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD WATCH HEADLINES FOR EXTENSION OF WS 81...NOW TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE CWA UNTIL 9 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
KEPT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A TREND
TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND PW VALUES RUNNING
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...SO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND AS A RESULT ELEVATED. OVERALL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARMER WATERS
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER METRO NEW
ORLEANS TONIGHT. AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL FALL BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE LARGE BATTERING
WAVES IMPACTING THE ORLEANS PARISH SHORELINE ALONG LAKESHORE
DRIVE. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LEVEE PROTECTION ALONG THE LAKEFRONT IN NEW ORLEANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AS A DEEP COLD POOL
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME TO SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO FREEZING...BUT AT THIS TIME A FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...FROST COULD BE A CONCERN. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER REVIEWING THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO TOSS
OUT THE GFS MODEL RUN AND WENT EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE EURO. WITH
THAT IN MIND...EXPECT A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERALL OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

AVIATION...

IN GENERAL...MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 3 TO 5
MILES. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES TO THE TERMINALS...RESULTING
IN IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 14Z TONIGHT
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE FORMS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW...AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG WINDS IMPACTING KNEW
AND KMSY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KNEW.

MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MARINE ZONE
WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ROUGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN
THREATS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  61  33  64 /  70  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  34  66 /  70  10   0   0
ASD  49  62  33  65 /  90  10   0   0
MSY  50  61  43  65 /  90  10   0   0
GPT  52  63  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
PQL  52  62  34  65 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLIX 142126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
KEPT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A TREND
TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND PW VALUES RUNNING
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...SO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND AS A RESULT ELEVATED. OVERALL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARMER WATERS
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER METRO NEW
ORLEANS TONIGHT. AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL FALL BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE LARGE BATTERING
WAVES IMPACTING THE ORLEANS PARISH SHORELINE ALONG LAKESHORE
DRIVE. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LEVEE PROTECTION ALONG THE LAKEFRONT IN NEW ORLEANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AS A DEEP COLD POOL
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME TO SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO FREEZING...BUT AT THIS TIME A FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...FROST COULD BE A CONCERN. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER REVIEWING THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO TOSS
OUT THE GFS MODEL RUN AND WENT EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE EURO. WITH
THAT IN MIND...EXPECT A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERALL OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

IN GENERAL...MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 3 TO 5
MILES. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES TO THE TERMINALS...RESULTING
IN IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 14Z TONIGHT
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE FORMS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW...AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG WINDS IMPACTING KNEW
AND KMSY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KNEW.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MARINE ZONE
WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ROUGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN
THREATS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  61  33  64 /  70  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  34  66 /  70  10   0   0
ASD  49  62  33  65 /  90  10   0   0
MSY  50  61  43  65 /  90  10   0   0
GPT  52  63  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
PQL  52  62  34  65 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 141827
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
127 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN WIDESPREAD FROM 21Z MONDAY TO 04Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS
WILL BOUNCE FROM 500 TO 2500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STRONG TSRA ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS ENOUGH FOR MENTION AS
PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN MOST OF THE TAFS 21Z MONDAY TO 04Z
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST SITES 02 TO 04Z WITH
STRONG NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILING WILL SLOWLY
ASCEND BUT IFR CONDITION MAY EXIST THROUGH 12Z THEN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. 18

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 141629
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
GFS AND MET GUIDANCE ARE BOTH MAINTAINING NORTH WINDS AT ABOVE 30
KNOTS AT LAKEFRONT FROM 06Z TO 12Z. IN ADDITION...ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AT NEW CANAL AND OTHER POINTS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THIS DURATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PUSH
WATER ON ROADS OUTSIDE THE PROTECTION LEVEE AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS THE
HUGE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS PW VALUES ARE UP TO
1.63 INCHES ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. IN ADDITION...0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS ARE SHOWN.
FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT JUST ABOVE 13K FEET BUT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE LOWER AROUND 11K. AS THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
PROGRESS...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES REACH TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MLCAPE WITH MODERATE LAPSE RATES. THE SOUNDING HODOGRAPH
ALSO SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CURVED SHAPE WITH HELICITY VALUES
BETWEEN 350-400 M2/S2 AT THE PRESENT TIME...ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS NUMBER DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY BEFORE THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

ALL OF THAT SAID...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BEGINNING LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND DAMAGING HAIL ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
MAIN IMPACTS. SEE BELOW DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED
IMPACTS TODAY.

98/SO

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

.STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ST. LOUIS TO TEXARKANA TO THE
BIG BEND OF TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SAGGED
SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 20. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT HAS BECOME DRIVEN BY A COLD
POOL ON THE NORTH END AND HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT ALL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS JUST BARELY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN PUSHING INTO MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARK-LA-MISS AREA THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL AND MERGED BOUNDARIES
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
DUE TO REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS AND EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY CROSSING OVER INTO THE ADJACENT UPPER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES DURING THE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL PERIOD AS FAR AS SUPPORT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. A
STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL BE FROM NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID APRIL. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...MEAN LAYER
CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND LIS OF  -4 TO -8 FROM AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IDEAL FOR
TORNADOES...BUT STILL ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SUPERCELLS BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MOSTLY LINEAR. EVEN AFTER
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LINEAR...THERE COULD STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE A
BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY SLOW MOVING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...AND THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST WHERE THE COMBINATION OF THE BEST INITIALIZED ECMWF AND
THE SUITE OF MESOSCALE BASED MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL DURING PEAK HEATING AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST BASED OFF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ECMWF
QPF...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES. A MAJOR
CONCERN OF PROPAGATION VECTORS COULD BE EXACTLY OPPOSED TO THE MEAN
STEERING CURRENTS WHICH COULD RESULT IN BACK-BUILDING OR
REGENERATIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SUPPORTS SOME
OF THE WRF MODELS THAT INDICATE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER SOME AREAS FROM SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO NEAR OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST.

OTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. NUMEROUS CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE MAV MOS FOR KNEW/LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT HAVE INDICATED AROUND 40 KNOTS OR GREATER DURING THE PERIOD
FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST 35 KNOTS AT THE 925 MB LEVEL DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO BRING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AT LEAST IN GUSTS. AM ANTICIPATING NORTH WINDS WILL EASILY
BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OVER MOST AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE TIDAL LAKES...AND NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE AS INDICATED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE
THAT THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT OF THE SOUTHSHORE COULD BE IN HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA OF 40 TO 45 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING OR WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE
ISSUED A STRONGLY WORDED WIND ADVISORY ADDRESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN SUCH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...LARGE
BATTERING WAVES ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION
LEVEE SYSTEM...LIKE ON THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF LAKESHORE DRIVE IN
NEW ORLEANS. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN MENTIONED IN THE WIND ADVISORY
PRODUCT.

AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL SPELL...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE COULD OCCUR IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

22/TD

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WITH THE EXTENDED
SCENARIO...BUT HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION NOW AT LEAST HAS A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT DRIES EVERYTHING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NOW CLOSER TO
WHAT GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING. WILL HOLD MINIMAL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RECOGNITION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR MANY SITES. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
COULD HAVE AN AGRICULTURAL IMPACT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 35

AVIATION...

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE OTHER BIG
ISSUE WILL BE STRONG TSRA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS
ENOUGH FOR MENTION AS PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN MOST OF THE TAFS AT
SOME POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MANY OF THE TSRA
WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES. CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING AS
COLD FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. WINDS THEN SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT...BUT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY AT THAT POINT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  43  58  33  69 /  80  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  36  70 /  70  10   0   0
ASD  48  62  35  69 /  90  10   0   0
MSY  49  61  43  68 /  80  10   0   0
GPT  51  63  38  68 /  90  20   0   0
PQL  51  62  34  68 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 141353
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
853 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS THE
HUGE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS PW VALUES ARE UP TO
1.63 INCHES ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. IN ADDITION...0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS ARE SHOWN.
FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT JUST ABOVE 13K FEET BUT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE LOWER AROUND 11K. AS THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
PROGRESS...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES REACH TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MLCAPE WITH MODERATE LAPSE RATES. THE SOUNDING HODOGRAPH
ALSO SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CURVED SHAPE WITH HELICITY VALUES
BETWEEN 350-400 M2/S2 AT THE PRESENT TIME...ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS NUMBER DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY BEFORE THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

ALL OF THAT SAID...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BEGINNING LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND DAMAGING HAIL ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
MAIN IMPACTS. SEE BELOW DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED
IMPACTS TODAY.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

..STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ST. LOUIS TO TEXARKANA TO THE
BIG BEND OF TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SAGGED
SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 20. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT HAS BECOME DRIVEN BY A COLD
POOL ON THE NORTH END AND HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT ALL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS JUST BARELY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN PUSHING INTO MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARK-LA-MISS AREA THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL AND MERGED BOUNDARIES
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
DUE TO REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS AND EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY CROSSING OVER INTO THE ADJACENT UPPER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES DURING THE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL PERIOD AS FAR AS SUPPORT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. A
STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL BE FROM NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID APRIL. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...MEAN LAYER
CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND LIS OF  -4 TO -8 FROM AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IDEAL FOR
TORNADOES...BUT STILL ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SUPERCELLS BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MOSTLY LINEAR. EVEN AFTER
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LINEAR...THERE COULD STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE A
BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY SLOW MOVING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...AND THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST WHERE THE COMBINATION OF THE BEST INITIALIZED ECMWF AND
THE SUITE OF MESOSCALE BASED MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL DURING PEAK HEATING AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST BASED OFF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ECMWF
QPF...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES. A MAJOR
CONCERN OF PROPAGATION VECTORS COULD BE EXACTLY OPPOSED TO THE MEAN
STEERING CURRENTS WHICH COULD RESULT IN BACK-BUILDING OR
REGENERATIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SUPPORTS SOME
OF THE WRF MODELS THAT INDICATE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER SOME AREAS FROM SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO NEAR OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST.

OTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. NUMEROUS CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE MAV MOS FOR KNEW/LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT HAVE INDICATED AROUND 40 KNOTS OR GREATER DURING THE PERIOD
FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST 35 KNOTS AT THE 925 MB LEVEL DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO BRING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AT LEAST IN GUSTS. AM ANTICIPATING NORTH WINDS WILL EASILY
BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OVER MOST AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE TIDAL LAKES...AND NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE AS INDICATED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE
THAT THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT OF THE SOUTHSHORE COULD BE IN HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA OF 40 TO 45 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING OR WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE
ISSUED A STRONGLY WORDED WIND ADVISORY ADDRESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN SUCH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...LARGE
BATTERING WAVES ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION
LEVEE SYSTEM...LIKE ON THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF LAKESHORE DRIVE IN
NEW ORLEANS. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN MENTIONED IN THE WIND ADVISORY
PRODUCT.

AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL SPELL...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE COULD OCCUR IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

22/TD

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WITH THE EXTENDED
SCENARIO...BUT HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION NOW AT LEAST HAS A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT DRIES EVERYTHING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NOW CLOSER TO
WHAT GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING. WILL HOLD MINIMAL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RECOGNITION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR MANY SITES. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
COULD HAVE AN AGRICULTURAL IMPACT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 35

AVIATION...

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE OTHER BIG
ISSUE WILL BE STRONG TSRA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS
ENOUGH FOR MENTION AS PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN MOST OF THE TAFS AT
SOME POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MANY OF THE TSRA
WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES. CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING AS
COLD FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. WINDS THEN SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT...BUT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY AT THAT POINT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  43  58  33 /  90  80  10   0
BTR  81  46  61  36 /  80  70  10   0
ASD  80  48  62  35 /  90  90  10   0
MSY  81  49  61  43 /  90  80  10   0
GPT  78  51  63  38 /  90  90  20   0
PQL  78  51  62  34 /  90  90  20   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 141045
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
545 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ST. LOUIS TO TEXARKANA TO THE
BIG BEND OF TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SAGGED
SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 20. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT HAS BECOME DRIVEN BY A COLD
POOL ON THE NORTH END AND HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT ALL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS JUST BARELY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN PUSHING INTO MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARK-LA-MISS AREA THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL AND MERGED BOUNDARIES
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
DUE TO REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS AND EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY CROSSING OVER INTO THE ADJACENT UPPER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES DURING THE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL PERIOD AS FAR AS SUPPORT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. A
STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL BE FROM NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID APRIL. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...MEAN LAYER
CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND LIS OF  -4 TO -8 FROM AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IDEAL FOR
TORNADOES...BUT STILL ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SUPERCELLS BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MOSTLY LINEAR. EVEN AFTER
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LINEAR...THERE COULD STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE A
BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY SLOW MOVING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...AND THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST WHERE THE COMBINATION OF THE BEST INITIALIZED ECMWF AND
THE SUITE OF MESOSCALE BASED MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL DURING PEAK HEATING AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST BASED OFF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ECMWF
QPF...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES. A MAJOR
CONCERN OF PROPAGATION VECTORS COULD BE EXACTLY OPPOSED TO THE MEAN
STEERING CURRENTS WHICH COULD RESULT IN BACK-BUILDING OR
REGENERATIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SUPPORTS SOME
OF THE WRF MODELS THAT INDICATE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER SOME AREAS FROM SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO NEAR OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST.

OTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. NUMEROUS CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE MAV MOS FOR KNEW/LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT HAVE INDICATED AROUND 40 KNOTS OR GREATER DURING THE PERIOD
FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST 35 KNOTS AT THE 925 MB LEVEL DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO BRING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AT LEAST IN GUSTS. AM ANTICIPATING NORTH WINDS WILL EASILY
BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OVER MOST AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE TIDAL LAKES...AND NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE AS INDICATED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE
THAT THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT OF THE SOUTHSHORE COULD BE IN HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA OF 40 TO 45 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING OR WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE
ISSUED A STRONGLY WORDED WIND ADVISORY ADDRESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN SUCH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...LARGE
BATTERING WAVES ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION
LEVEE SYSTEM...LIKE ON THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF LAKESHORE DRIVE IN
NEW ORLEANS. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN MENTIONED IN THE WIND ADVISORY
PRODUCT.

AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL SPELL...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE COULD OCCUR IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

22/TD

&&

.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WITH THE EXTENDED
SCENARIO...BUT HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION NOW AT LEAST HAS A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT DRIES EVERYTHING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NOW CLOSER TO
WHAT GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING. WILL HOLD MINIMAL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RECOGNITION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR MANY SITES. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
COULD HAVE AN AGRICULTURAL IMPACT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE OTHER BIG
ISSUE WILL BE STRONG TSRA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS
ENOUGH FOR MENTION AS PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN MOST OF THE TAFS AT
SOME POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MANY OF THE TSRA
WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES. CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING AS
COLD FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. WINDS THEN SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT...BUT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY AT THAT POINT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  43  58  33 /  90  80  10   0
BTR  81  46  61  36 /  80  70  10   0
ASD  80  48  62  35 /  90  90  10   0
MSY  81  49  61  43 /  90  80  10   0
GPT  78  51  63  38 /  90  90  20   0
PQL  78  51  62  34 /  90  90  20   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 132143
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
443 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BREEZY AND WARM DAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CU FIELD ALIGNED IN CLOUD STREETS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE GULF
IS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SETTING UP THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR THE
DEEP SOUTH FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. LOOKING OUT ACROSS THE
PLAINS THE LEAD SHORT WAVE HAS SPARKED OFF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. NEW RUNS OF SOME
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS NORTHEAST THE CONVECTION LOOKS
TO DIMINISH ON THE SOUTHERN END...WHICH MEANS THAT OUR AREA COULD
BE MISSED BY THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION TONIGHT. MULTIPLE FORMS
OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WOULD OCCUR SO HAVE TRIMMED DOWN POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WILL ON INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD GET GOING WILL HAVE THE RIGHT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SEVERE.
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS TONIGHT THE HELICITY VALUES...SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT THE THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAPPING INVERSION TONIGHT SO THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED. THE BEST
CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF I-12 UP INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

OUR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA LOOK
TO COME WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING DOWN INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY AS I AM WRITING THIS DISCUSSION.
THIS SHOULD KICK OUT OVER THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
DIFFERENCE WITH THIS PARTICULAR ROUND WOULD BE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND HELICITY WOULD NOT BE AS STRONG...BUT THE INSTABILITY
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE HIGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1.6 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE AND THE WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTH TOMORROW EVENING WILL BE OVER 10K FEET AND THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY MONDAY EVENING AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STATIONARY BANDS OF STRONGER CONVECTION DUE TO BACK-BUILDING. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE FLOODING THREAT AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE ANOTHER ATTRIBUTE TO WATCH TOMORROW BECAUSE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL HINGE ON THE MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
WHAT THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION DOES TO THE ATMOSPHERE. RIGHT
NOW THE THINKING IS THAT WE WILL CATCH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOULD MISS MOST OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT AND IN TURN
THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR TOMORROW BEFORE THE
FORCING COMES WITH THE SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT
CAPE VALUES COULD TOP OUT AROUND 2500 J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THAT IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO GET SEVERE CONVECTION GOING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS TOMORROW LOOK TO BE
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WITH DEEPER
CONVECTION. ALL INTERESTS IN OUR AREA SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE EVENT
UNFOLDS. MONITOR OUR WEB SITE AND SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH


.LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING OUT
OF THE LOWER 60S BUT THE BIG THING TO WATCH ARE THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHSHORE AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S.
WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN
THE 30S OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AT MID WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ECMWF
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE GFS
PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES THAT
NEED TO BE MADE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. A MOIST LOW LEVELS SHOULD CREATE LOW CIGS TO MVFR OR IFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
SURFACE WINDS OF 7 TO 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO NIL DUE TO FOG. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION MAY OCCUR BE DUE
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR AT TAF SITES FROM
10Z TO 14Z MONDAY MORNING. LATER TAF PACKAGE AT 00Z THIS EVENING
WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER PREVAILING TSRA TO THE TAFS AFTER 18Z
MONDAY FOR SOME TAF SITES. 18

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THAT HAD PROMPTED EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTENSION THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DEFINITELY WILL BE
NEEDED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A SHORT GALE WARNING COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE ON
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LIKELY. 13/MH


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  79  44  58 /  40 100  80  10
BTR  69  80  47  61 /  40 100  70  10
ASD  69  80  49  62 /  10 100  90  10
MSY  70  80  50  61 /  10 100  80  10
GPT  70  78  51  62 /  10 100  90  20
PQL  67  78  53  62 /  10 100  90  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 131905
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
205 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. A MOIST LOW LEVELS SHOULD CREATE LOW CIGS TO MVFR OR IFR
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
SURFACE WINDS OF 7 TO 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO NIL DUE TO FOG. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION MAY OCCUR BE DUE
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR AT TAF SITES FROM
10Z TO 14Z MONDAY MORNING. LATER TAF PACKAGE AT 00Z THIS EVENING
WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER PREVAILING TSRA TO THE TAFS AFTER 18Z
MONDAY FOR SOME TAF SITES. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 131344
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
844 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SOME MINOR ISSUES WITH BASELINE PRIOR TO LAUNCH...OTHERWISE
NO PROBLEMS WITH FLIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS NOW RISEN TO 1.02 INCHES. A SURFACE BASED
INVERSION EXTENDS TO JUST UNDER 986 MB/1KFT...THEN ADIABATIC TO
THE BASE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 820 MB. A WARM LAYER ABOVE 10C
TO 729 MB THEN DRY ADIABATIC TO A SECOND WARM LAYER LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS CLOUD DECK NEAR 500 MB/19KFT. A
PSEUDO LAPSE RATE TO A VERY HIGH TROPOPAUSE AT 182 MB WITH A RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPERATURE OF -65C. DEWPOINT DEPARTURES ARE GENERALLY 1-5C
FROM SURFACE TO BASE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THEN DRY ALOFT BUT
NARROWING NEAR CIRRUS LEVEL AROUND 24KFT. WINDS INDICATED A LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK SSW-SSE 25-30 KT JUST OFF SURFACE TO 5900FT...SW
10-25 KT TO A CALM LAYER AT 8700FT...THEN VEERING TO NW 15-80 KT
TO TROPOPAUSE. PEAK WIND 285/79KT AT 43.3KFT. LIFTED INDEX -4.7
WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY NOW UP TO 185 M2/S2 DUE MAINLY TO SPEED
SHEAR. BOTH OF THESE VALUES WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM. FINALLY...BALLOON BURST OVER
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI SOUND NEAR GAP TO LAKE BORGNE 36 MILES DOWN
RANGE AND 8 MILES SOUTH OF PASS CHRISTIAN MS/WEST OF CAT ISLAND AT
10.77 MB OR 30555 M/19.0 MILES UP. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN AXIS
OF THE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER IOWA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A DRY LINE OVER
WEST TEXAS. A RATHER EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DECK HAS LIMITED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AS OF 3 AM.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY PHASED ENERGY CARVING OUT
A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM NEAR WESTERN MONTANA TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
WARM/HUMID DAY IS IN STORE TODAY. MOISTURE REMAINS TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE TONIGHT. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THIS WIND AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.6-1.8
INCHES....AND DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS A
100-110 KT JET STREAK AT 250 MB APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTN OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SHIFT EAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT AT
VARIOUS LEVELS WILL BE A BIT DISJOINTED AND OUT OF PHASE
TONIGHT...SO CURRENT THINKING IS THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-12 AND I-10 AND ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH
OF I-10. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR THIS PERIOD WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF 250-400 M2/S2
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND 150-300 M2/S2 AROUND 6 AM MONDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO MID
MORNING MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. A
STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY
MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWS OF
1.6-1.8 INCHES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE MONDAY AFTN/EVENING BUT INSTABILITY IS GREATER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS OF -4 TO -6.
HAVE LIKELY POPS BLANKETED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH
A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
A SLIGHT RISK...WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AND FORCING WILL PLAY OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AND COULD BECOME A CONCERN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STATIONARY BANDS
OF STRONGER CONVECTION DUE TO BACK-BUILDING. IT CURRENTLY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THAT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A WATCH...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. 22/TD

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL BE MOVING INTO PLACE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
GETTING MUCH PAST THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY AND MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S IN SOME AREAS. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE 30S. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE
TOO COLD LAST FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AT MID WEEK. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE
MAINLY DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MAIN EMPHASIS OF SYSTEMS WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF US IN EITHER CASE. PREVIOUS PACKAGES HAVE BEEN SHADED
TOWARD GFS WITH MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT
TREND FOR NOW. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS. 35

AVIATION...

CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN HARD TO PREDICT AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR ON PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST TO VFR OVER MANY OF THE LARGER AIRPORTS. IT IS STILL EXPECTED
THAT IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES THE CIGS TO LIFT ABOVE 030 BY MIDDAY.
AFTERNOON IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS SHOULD QUICKLY CREATE LOW CIGS TO MVFR OR IFR THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO START TO IMPACT AREAS FROM NEAR KMCB
TO KBTR AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND THE REMAINING AIRPORTS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. LATER TAF ISSUANCES AT 12Z AND 18Z WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
ADDING MENTION OF TSRA TO THE TAFS. 22/TD

MARINE...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
TODAY...BUT WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW. HEADLINES A
LITTLE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DEFINITELY WILL BE NEEDED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A SHORT GALE WARNING COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE ON
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LIKELY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  67  79  44 /  10  50  70  70
BTR  82  69  79  46 /  10  50  70  70
ASD  79  68  80  49 /  10  40  70  70
MSY  80  69  80  51 /  10  40  70  70
GPT  76  69  77  50 /  10  30  70  70
PQL  76  66  78  50 /  10  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLIX 130939
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
439 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN AXIS
OF THE HIGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER IOWA AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WITH A DRY LINE OVER
WEST TEXAS. A RATHER EXTENSIVE CIRRUS DECK HAS LIMITED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AS OF 3 AM.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY PHASED ENERGY CARVING OUT
A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM NEAR WESTERN MONTANA TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
WARM/HUMID DAY IS IN STORE TODAY. MOISTURE REMAINS TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION LATE TONIGHT. A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND THIS WIND AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.6-1.8
INCHES....AND DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS A
100-110 KT JET STREAK AT 250 MB APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTN OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SHIFT EAST
ACROSS LOUISIANA SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE ENERGY AND LIFT AT
VARIOUS LEVELS WILL BE A BIT DISJOINTED AND OUT OF PHASE
TONIGHT...SO CURRENT THINKING IS THE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH NEAR I-12 AND I-10 AND ISOLATED TO THE SOUTH
OF I-10. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR THIS PERIOD WITH 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF 250-400 M2/S2
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND 150-300 M2/S2 AROUND 6 AM MONDAY. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO MID
MORNING MONDAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY. A
STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY
MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWS OF
1.6-1.8 INCHES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE LESS
IMPRESSIVE MONDAY AFTN/EVENING BUT INSTABILITY IS GREATER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS OF -4 TO -6.
HAVE LIKELY POPS BLANKETED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH
A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
A SLIGHT RISK...WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
AND FORCING WILL PLAY OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AND COULD BECOME A CONCERN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STATIONARY BANDS
OF STRONGER CONVECTION DUE TO BACK-BUILDING. IT CURRENTLY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THAT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A WATCH...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. 22/TD

&&

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY...CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL BE MOVING INTO PLACE...AND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
GETTING MUCH PAST THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY AND MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
50S IN SOME AREAS. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE 30S. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS...GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE
TOO COLD LAST FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN THE 30S OVER NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AT MID WEEK. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE
MAINLY DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE GFS PUSHES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MAIN EMPHASIS OF SYSTEMS WILL BE TO
THE NORTH OF US IN EITHER CASE. PREVIOUS PACKAGES HAVE BEEN SHADED
TOWARD GFS WITH MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT
TREND FOR NOW. WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN HARD TO PREDICT AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR ON PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI GULF
COAST TO VFR OVER MANY OF THE LARGER AIRPORTS. IT IS STILL EXPECTED
THAT IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING CAUSES THE CIGS TO LIFT ABOVE 030 BY MIDDAY.
AFTERNOON IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS SHOULD QUICKLY CREATE LOW CIGS TO MVFR OR IFR THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO START TO IMPACT AREAS FROM NEAR KMCB
TO KBTR AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND THE REMAINING AIRPORTS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. LATER TAF ISSUANCES AT 12Z AND 18Z WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
ADDING MENTION OF TSRA TO THE TAFS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
TODAY...BUT WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW. HEADLINES A
LITTLE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DEFINITELY WILL BE NEEDED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A SHORT GALE WARNING COULD BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL EASE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON THURSDAY. NEXT FRONT DUE ON
FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LIKELY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  67  79  44 /  10  50  70  70
BTR  82  69  79  46 /  10  50  70  70
ASD  79  68  80  49 /  10  40  70  70
MSY  80  69  80  51 /  10  40  70  70
GPT  76  69  77  50 /  10  30  70  70
PQL  76  66  78  50 /  10  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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