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000
FXUS64 KLIX 190119
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
719 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED ABOUT 4 MILES NORTH OF GRAND BAY
ALABAMA...JUST EAST OF THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE. FLIGHT
TERMINATED AT AN ALTITUDE OF 108.3K FEET OR 20.5 MILES.

MOISTURE HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.38 INCHES...WHICH IS 161 PERCENT OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. BASE OF INVERSIONS AT 960 MB AND 720 MB. CLOUD
DECK RAPIDLY DESCENDED FROM FL080 TO FL025 IN THE HOUR BEFORE THE
LAUNCH...AND THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE SOUNDING WHICH WAS PRETTY
MUCH SATURATED BETWEEN THE INVERSIONS. MARINE LAYER APPEARS TO BE
ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWER 2000 FEET
RAPIDLY BECOME WEST ABOVE THAT...AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH 100
MB. PEAK WIND OF 124 KNOTS AT 42.3K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS IMPACTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. MAIN
CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST IS AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...AM CARRYING 100 PERCENT POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY DUE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR...WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
FOR MANY PLACES.

HPC IS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST SOME RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
I.E. RAINFALL THAT EXCEEDS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL COME DOWN TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. RIVERS AND OTHER
RESERVOIRS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...IF A
SPECIFIC LOCATION DOES HAPPEN TO EXPERIENCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVIER RAIN...WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BECAUSE THE
THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED AT THIS TIME...WILL FORGO ANY
KIND OF WATCH PRODUCT WITH THIS PACKAGE.

ONTO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE
COAST. A TRACK THIS FAR SOUTH WILL KEEP THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER
THE GULF WITH ONLY VERY MARGINAL AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE OVER LAND AREAS. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SPC/S LATEST OUTLOOK AGREES WITH THIS
LINE OF THINKING AS THEY CONTINUE TO WHITTLE AWAY NORTHERN PARTS
OF THEIR MARGINAL RISK AREA. SINCE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
AND WINDS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

THIS SECOND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS IT
PASSES BY...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT...AND EVEN GETTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE A STRETCH. AS THIS LOW PASSES THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

A THIRD UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY FORCE A CLEARING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT WELL INTO THE GULF...WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR SPREADS NORTHWARD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS.
SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND FOG WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED TSRA
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AFTER 09Z THROUGH 18Z.

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AHEAD OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY...AND ONE OR TWO COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  52  44  58 /  50 100  70  20
BTR  51  60  46  61 /  60 100  60  20
ASD  49  58  47  61 /  40  90  70  20
MSY  55  63  52  61 /  40  90  60  20
GPT  48  57  49  61 /  30  80  70  30
PQL  43  58  44  63 /  30  70  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 182153
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS IMPACTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. MAIN
CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST IS AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...AM CARRYING 100 PERCENT POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY DUE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR...WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
FOR MANY PLACES.

HPC IS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST SOME RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
I.E. RAINFALL THAT EXCEEDS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL COME DOWN TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. RIVERS AND OTHER
RESERVOIRS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...IF A
SPECIFIC LOCATION DOES HAPPEN TO EXPERIENCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVIER RAIN...WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BECAUSE THE
THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED AT THIS TIME...WILL FORGO ANY
KIND OF WATCH PRODUCT WITH THIS PACKAGE.

ONTO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE
COAST. A TRACK THIS FAR SOUTH WILL KEEP THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER
THE GULF WITH ONLY VERY MARGINAL AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE OVER LAND AREAS. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SPC/S LATEST OUTLOOK AGREES WITH THIS
LINE OF THINKING AS THEY CONTINUE TO WHITTLE AWAY NORTHERN PARTS
OF THEIR MARGINAL RISK AREA. SINCE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
AND WINDS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

THIS SECOND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS IT
PASSES BY...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT...AND EVEN GETTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE A STRETCH. AS THIS LOW PASSES THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

A THIRD UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY FORCE A CLEARING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT WELL INTO THE GULF...WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR SPREADS NORTHWARD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS.
SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND FOG WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED TSRA
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AFTER 09Z THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AHEAD OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY...AND ONE OR TWO COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  52  44  58 /  50 100  70  20
BTR  51  60  46  61 /  60 100  60  20
ASD  49  58  47  61 /  40  90  70  20
MSY  55  63  52  61 /  40  90  60  20
GPT  48  57  49  61 /  30  80  70  30
PQL  43  58  44  63 /  30  70  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...21
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






000
FXUS64 KLIX 182153
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS IMPACTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. MAIN
CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST IS AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...AM CARRYING 100 PERCENT POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY DUE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR...WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
FOR MANY PLACES.

HPC IS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST SOME RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
I.E. RAINFALL THAT EXCEEDS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL COME DOWN TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. RIVERS AND OTHER
RESERVOIRS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...IF A
SPECIFIC LOCATION DOES HAPPEN TO EXPERIENCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVIER RAIN...WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BECAUSE THE
THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED AT THIS TIME...WILL FORGO ANY
KIND OF WATCH PRODUCT WITH THIS PACKAGE.

ONTO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE
COAST. A TRACK THIS FAR SOUTH WILL KEEP THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER
THE GULF WITH ONLY VERY MARGINAL AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE OVER LAND AREAS. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SPC/S LATEST OUTLOOK AGREES WITH THIS
LINE OF THINKING AS THEY CONTINUE TO WHITTLE AWAY NORTHERN PARTS
OF THEIR MARGINAL RISK AREA. SINCE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
AND WINDS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

THIS SECOND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS IT
PASSES BY...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT...AND EVEN GETTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE A STRETCH. AS THIS LOW PASSES THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

A THIRD UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY FORCE A CLEARING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT WELL INTO THE GULF...WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR SPREADS NORTHWARD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS.
SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND FOG WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED TSRA
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AFTER 09Z THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AHEAD OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY...AND ONE OR TWO COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  52  44  58 /  50 100  70  20
BTR  51  60  46  61 /  60 100  60  20
ASD  49  58  47  61 /  40  90  70  20
MSY  55  63  52  61 /  40  90  60  20
GPT  48  57  49  61 /  30  80  70  30
PQL  43  58  44  63 /  30  70  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...21
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 181734
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST WEATHER FOR THE
TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BASED
ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  30  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  30  50  80  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  20  40  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  20  40  80  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  30  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /  10  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 181254
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 181254
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 181254
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 181254
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 180956
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

.LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 180054
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

FLIGHT A LITTLE SHORTER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. LOST WIND DATA AT
ABOUT 80K FEET...AND FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI IN THE SANDHILL CRANE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AT A
HEIGHT OF 88.1K FEET OR 16.7 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.59 INCHES...WHICH IS 68 PERCENT OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE C INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 920 MB. A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 825 AND
725 MB...BUT THIS IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE JUST ABOVE 400 MB WHICH IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FROM ABOUT 2500 FEET TO
10000 FEET WITH GENERALLY WEST WINDS ABOVE THAT. MAX WIND WESTERLY
AT 107 KNOTS AT 44.5K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 13K FEET...AND
-20C LEVEL AT 23.3K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 180054
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

FLIGHT A LITTLE SHORTER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. LOST WIND DATA AT
ABOUT 80K FEET...AND FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI IN THE SANDHILL CRANE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AT A
HEIGHT OF 88.1K FEET OR 16.7 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.59 INCHES...WHICH IS 68 PERCENT OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE C INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 920 MB. A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 825 AND
725 MB...BUT THIS IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE JUST ABOVE 400 MB WHICH IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FROM ABOUT 2500 FEET TO
10000 FEET WITH GENERALLY WEST WINDS ABOVE THAT. MAX WIND WESTERLY
AT 107 KNOTS AT 44.5K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 13K FEET...AND
-20C LEVEL AT 23.3K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 172216
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 172216
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32






000
FXUS64 KLIX 171755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE 18Z
TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AND VSBYS REMAINING ABOVE 6 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  43  63  48 /   0  10  20  30
BTR  62  45  67  53 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  61  42  68  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  61  49  69  56 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  59  43  64  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  61  38  66  44 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 171755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE 18Z
TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AND VSBYS REMAINING ABOVE 6 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  43  63  48 /   0  10  20  30
BTR  62  45  67  53 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  61  42  68  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  61  49  69  56 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  59  43  64  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  61  38  66  44 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 170919
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 170919
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 170919
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 170520
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 170520
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 170100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND SOUTH OF
PASCAGOULA JUST NORTH OF THE EAST END OF HORN ISLAND. BALLOON
BURST AT 110.2K FEET...OR ABOUT 20.9 MILES UP.

AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW DOWN TO 0.38 INCHES...ABOUT 45
PERCENT OF NORMAL...COMPARED TO 1.18 LAST EVENING. INVERSIONS FROM
ABOUT 940 MB TO AROUND 750 MB THIS EVENING...ASIDE FROM THE
SURFACE INVERSION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE BECOME WESTERLY BY 700 MB...AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH
THE TROPOPAUSE. WIND MAX BELOW 100 MB WAS 67 KNOTS AT 38.2K FEET.
35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION...AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. AS MOISTURE ALOFT
RISES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY. THE ELONGATED VORT WILL ALSO KEEP A REGION OF INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH.

WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE GULF SOUTH...ANOTHER
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL KICK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
TEXAS...JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE A WARM FRONT
SURGE INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...OR IN A
REGION OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...WITH SKINNY CAPE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL VERY HIGH AS A 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. 0-3KM SPEED SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS
OF 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR
SCENARIO...WHERE THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AS WELL DURING
THIS PERIOD OF TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA...WITH HELICITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. BASICALLY READINGS WILL
FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY...BUT A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...

DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL EAST AND TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SEAS WILL ALSO DROP FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...WIND WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 170100
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MISSISSIPPI SOUND SOUTH OF
PASCAGOULA JUST NORTH OF THE EAST END OF HORN ISLAND. BALLOON
BURST AT 110.2K FEET...OR ABOUT 20.9 MILES UP.

AIRMASS HAS DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW DOWN TO 0.38 INCHES...ABOUT 45
PERCENT OF NORMAL...COMPARED TO 1.18 LAST EVENING. INVERSIONS FROM
ABOUT 940 MB TO AROUND 750 MB THIS EVENING...ASIDE FROM THE
SURFACE INVERSION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE BECOME WESTERLY BY 700 MB...AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH
THE TROPOPAUSE. WIND MAX BELOW 100 MB WAS 67 KNOTS AT 38.2K FEET.
35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION...AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. AS MOISTURE ALOFT
RISES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY. THE ELONGATED VORT WILL ALSO KEEP A REGION OF INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH.

WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE GULF SOUTH...ANOTHER
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL KICK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
TEXAS...JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE A WARM FRONT
SURGE INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...OR IN A
REGION OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...WITH SKINNY CAPE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL VERY HIGH AS A 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. 0-3KM SPEED SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS
OF 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR
SCENARIO...WHERE THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AS WELL DURING
THIS PERIOD OF TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA...WITH HELICITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. BASICALLY READINGS WILL
FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY...BUT A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...

DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL EAST AND TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SEAS WILL ALSO DROP FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...WIND WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 162157
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION...AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. AS MOISTURE ALOFT
RISES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY. THE ELONGATED VORT WILL ALSO KEEP A REGION OF INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH.

WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE GULF SOUTH...ANOTHER
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL KICK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
TEXAS...JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE A WARM FRONT
SURGE INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...OR IN A
REGION OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...WITH SKINNY CAPE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL VERY HIGH AS A 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. 0-3KM SPEED SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS
OF 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR
SCENARIO...WHERE THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AS WELL DURING
THIS PERIOD OF TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA...WITH HELICITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. BASICALLY READINGS WILL
FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY...BUT A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL EAST AND TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SEAS WILL ALSO DROP FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...WIND WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32






000
FXUS64 KLIX 162157
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S
FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION...AND A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
LOW LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. AS MOISTURE ALOFT
RISES...THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
THURSDAY. THE ELONGATED VORT WILL ALSO KEEP A REGION OF INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL OMEGA OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH.

WITH THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DOMINATING THE GULF SOUTH...ANOTHER
MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL KICK OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AND INTO TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
TEXAS...JET DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...EXPECT TO SEE A WARM FRONT
SURGE INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...OR IN A
REGION OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL...WITH SKINNY CAPE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...SHEAR VALUES WILL VERY HIGH AS A 40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. 0-3KM SPEED SHEAR WILL
AVERAGE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND HELICITY VALUES WILL BE WELL IN EXCESS
OF 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR
SCENARIO...WHERE THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SURFACE
BASED SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AS WELL DURING
THIS PERIOD OF TIME.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.
STRONG SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA...WITH HELICITY
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
CANNOT BE RULED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-LEVELS. EXPECT TO SEE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
FRIDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. BASICALLY READINGS WILL
FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...

THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ON SUNDAY...BUT A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS MODELS
INDICATE THAT A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THIS JET STREAK
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOME
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF POPS FOR THESE AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...COOL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL EAST AND TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF SOUTH.
SEAS WILL ALSO DROP FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THESE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ON FRIDAY...AND
EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
ROUGH SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST
ON SATURDAY...WIND WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT TO SEE A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  61  40  65 /   0   0   0  20
BTR  39  62  44  69 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  36  61  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  43  59  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  38  61  42  68 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  37  61  38  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 161747
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014


.AVIATION...
DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A GULFPORT TO HOUMA LINE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS SEEING AT MOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BUT MORE COMMONLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AS HIGH
AS 30 KNOTS BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AND RIGHT ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY DROPPING ABOUT 6
DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
DEWPOINTS FALLING AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE HRRR QPF OUTPUT IS SPOT ON
FOR INITIATION AND HAS BEEN DOING WELL FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. GOING
OFF THAT...WHATS LEFT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY NOON.

TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN INSOLATION AND COOL AIR MOVING
IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY OR LOWER TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON
FCST LOWS.

LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO
NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO IMPACT THE AREA COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS
SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHOOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE MAIN PIECE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THUS COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES IS WHERE THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. DRYING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE JUST AS COOL AS WELL WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MEFFER

AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE
SHRA HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NW/NNW THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RELAX AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT...IN FACT THE SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN QUIET. /CAB/

MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A SHORT WHILE BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW SCS
HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE MIDDAY. CAA IS JUST NOT THAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT COMBINE THAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEING RATHER FAR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NEXT SFC LOW ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP FRI WITH SCY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  34  58  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  37  61  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  35  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  65  44  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  69  35  61  39 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 161747
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014


.AVIATION...
DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VISIBILITIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY...OTHERWISE
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A GULFPORT TO HOUMA LINE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS SEEING AT MOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BUT MORE COMMONLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AS HIGH
AS 30 KNOTS BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AND RIGHT ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY DROPPING ABOUT 6
DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
DEWPOINTS FALLING AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE HRRR QPF OUTPUT IS SPOT ON
FOR INITIATION AND HAS BEEN DOING WELL FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. GOING
OFF THAT...WHATS LEFT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY NOON.

TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN INSOLATION AND COOL AIR MOVING
IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY OR LOWER TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON
FCST LOWS.

LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO
NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO IMPACT THE AREA COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS
SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHOOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE MAIN PIECE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THUS COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES IS WHERE THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. DRYING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE JUST AS COOL AS WELL WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MEFFER

AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE
SHRA HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NW/NNW THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RELAX AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT...IN FACT THE SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN QUIET. /CAB/

MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A SHORT WHILE BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW SCS
HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE MIDDAY. CAA IS JUST NOT THAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT COMBINE THAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEING RATHER FAR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NEXT SFC LOW ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP FRI WITH SCY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  34  58  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  37  61  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  35  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  65  44  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  69  35  61  39 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 160945
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A GULFPORT TO HOUMA LINE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS SEEING AT MOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BUT MORE COMMONLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AS HIGH
AS 30 KNOTS BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AND RIGHT ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY DROPPING ABOUT 6
DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
DEWPOINTS FALLING AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE HRRR QPF OUTPUT IS SPOT ON
FOR INITIATION AND HAS BEEN DOING WELL FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. GOING
OFF THAT...WHATS LEFT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY NOON.

TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN INSOLATION AND COOL AIR MOVING
IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY OR LOWER TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON
FCST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO
NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO IMPACT THE AREA COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS
SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHOOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE MAIN PIECE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THUS COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES IS WHERE THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. DRYING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE JUST AS COOL AS WELL WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE
SHRA HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NW/NNW THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RELAX AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT...IN FACT THE SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN QUIET. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A SHORT WHILE BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW SCS
HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE MIDDAY. CAA IS JUST NOT THAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT COMBINE THAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEING RATHER FAR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NEXT SFC LOW ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP FRI WITH SCY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  34  58  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  37  61  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  35  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  65  44  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  69  35  61  39 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 160945
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
345 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A GULFPORT TO HOUMA LINE AND
MOVING EASTWARD. THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH LOCATIONS SEEING AT MOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH
BUT MORE COMMONLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO AS HIGH
AS 30 KNOTS BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BRIEF AND RIGHT ALONG
THE LINE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY DROPPING ABOUT 6
DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
DEWPOINTS FALLING AROUND 10 DEGREES. THE HRRR QPF OUTPUT IS SPOT ON
FOR INITIATION AND HAS BEEN DOING WELL FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. GOING
OFF THAT...WHATS LEFT OF THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SHOULD
BE PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY NOON.

TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE A FIGHT BETWEEN INSOLATION AND COOL AIR MOVING
IN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY OR LOWER TO UPPER 60S WHICH IS
RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOVING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AM AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON
FCST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...
A BRIEF COOLING TREND WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING IN COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MORE FROM TUESDAY TO
NEAR 60 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS THE SFC RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW & MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

THE NEXT EVENT TO IMPACT THE AREA COMES IN LATE THIS WEEK. MODELS
SHOW A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHOOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD NUDGE
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY. THE MAIN PIECE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS ON FRIDAY. AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AND TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY DOES APPEAR TO BE HIGHER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND THUS COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES IS WHERE THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. DRYING WILL THEN TAKE PLACE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ON SATURDAY AND EVEN LESS
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE JUST AS COOL AS WELL WITH MINS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE
SHRA HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SETTING RIGHT BACK IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NW/NNW THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD QUICKLY RELAX AFTER 3Z
TONIGHT...IN FACT THE SOUTHSHORE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE WINDS
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT EVEN AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER
THAN THAT EVERYTHING SHOULD REMAIN QUIET. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR A SHORT WHILE BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP BELOW SCS
HEADLINE CRITERIA BEFORE MIDDAY. CAA IS JUST NOT THAT STRONG BEHIND
THE FRONT COMBINE THAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BEING RATHER FAR
NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NEXT SFC LOW ONSHORE
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP FRI WITH SCY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SAT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  62  34  58  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  64  37  61  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  35  61  42 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  65  44  60  48 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  65  38  59  44 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  69  35  61  39 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 160532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST OF KMCB TO NEAR KBTR AT 05Z AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE OBSERVED AT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL CLEAR WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  63  36  58 /  20   0   0   0
BTR  50  64  38  61 /  20   0   0   0
ASD  55  65  37  60 /  20  10   0   0
MSY  55  64  44  59 /  20  10   0   0
GPT  55  65  40  60 /  20  10   0   0
PQL  53  69  36  60 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 160532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST OF KMCB TO NEAR KBTR AT 05Z AND
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE OBSERVED AT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL CLEAR WITH A RETURN TO
VFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  48  63  36  58 /  20   0   0   0
BTR  50  64  38  61 /  20   0   0   0
ASD  55  65  37  60 /  20  10   0   0
MSY  55  64  44  59 /  20  10   0   0
GPT  55  65  40  60 /  20  10   0   0
PQL  53  69  36  60 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









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