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000
FXUS64 KLIX 200820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IT WAS ANOTHER QUIET YET
WARM ONE. NO CONVECTION WAS NOTED ON THE SCOPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE TONIGHT FROM LAST NIGHT WAS TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS MAY BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT TEMPS DID DROP MUCH FASTER
DURING THE EVNG HRS WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE MID 70S BY 7Z.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED AND BY FRI
A 594DM RIDGE WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
IN THE LAST FEW FCST THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER POPS AND WARMER
TEMPS...AND MOST LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
SEASON. FIRST FOR TSRA CHANCES...THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
WHILE WARMING LOW AND MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO A CAP. ALL OF THIS WILL
HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON CONVECTION. THAT SAID CANT RULE OUT ISLTD
TO WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SELA COAST WHERE
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS COMBINE WITH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTN
POSSIBLY LEADING TO CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN
THAT RESPECT AND IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI.
H925 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 28-29C AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO UPPER 90S ON
THOSE DAYS. AS FOR ANY POSSIBILITIES OF A HEAT ADV IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA. MORNING LOWS SHOULD COOL OFF IN
MOST PLACES TO ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE
CITY WHERE LOWS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 70S. AFTN
HEAT INDICIES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S. SO WITH THAT SAID IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM AND OPPRESSIVE IN THE AFTN. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. THE MDLS DIVERGE AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS FALLS OUT OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MON NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL STILL DOMINATE
THE REGION LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. AS WE
HEAD INTO MON NIGHT AND TUE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING WEAK ERLYS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MDLS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WITH NOTHING EVEN DEVELOPED YET IT IS FUTILE TO TRY
TO FCST WHERE THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL GO. AS ALWAYS IN MID
AUG...ITS HURRICANE SEASON AND NO MATTER WHAT YOU SHOULD PAY
ATTENTION TO THE TROPICS. UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS NECESSARY IF THERE
IS ANY CHANGE. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. NOT INCLUDING IN TAFS THIS FCST PERIOD BUT RATHER DO
AN UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE... EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  96  74 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  94  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  94  78  94  78 /  40  20  20  10
GPT  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  93  77  94  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IT WAS ANOTHER QUIET YET
WARM ONE. NO CONVECTION WAS NOTED ON THE SCOPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE TONIGHT FROM LAST NIGHT WAS TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS MAY BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT TEMPS DID DROP MUCH FASTER
DURING THE EVNG HRS WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE MID 70S BY 7Z.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED AND BY FRI
A 594DM RIDGE WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
IN THE LAST FEW FCST THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER POPS AND WARMER
TEMPS...AND MOST LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
SEASON. FIRST FOR TSRA CHANCES...THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
WHILE WARMING LOW AND MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO A CAP. ALL OF THIS WILL
HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON CONVECTION. THAT SAID CANT RULE OUT ISLTD
TO WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SELA COAST WHERE
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS COMBINE WITH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTN
POSSIBLY LEADING TO CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN
THAT RESPECT AND IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI.
H925 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 28-29C AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO UPPER 90S ON
THOSE DAYS. AS FOR ANY POSSIBILITIES OF A HEAT ADV IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA. MORNING LOWS SHOULD COOL OFF IN
MOST PLACES TO ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE
CITY WHERE LOWS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 70S. AFTN
HEAT INDICIES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S. SO WITH THAT SAID IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM AND OPPRESSIVE IN THE AFTN. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. THE MDLS DIVERGE AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS FALLS OUT OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MON NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL STILL DOMINATE
THE REGION LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. AS WE
HEAD INTO MON NIGHT AND TUE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING WEAK ERLYS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MDLS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WITH NOTHING EVEN DEVELOPED YET IT IS FUTILE TO TRY
TO FCST WHERE THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL GO. AS ALWAYS IN MID
AUG...ITS HURRICANE SEASON AND NO MATTER WHAT YOU SHOULD PAY
ATTENTION TO THE TROPICS. UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS NECESSARY IF THERE
IS ANY CHANGE. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. NOT INCLUDING IN TAFS THIS FCST PERIOD BUT RATHER DO
AN UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE... EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  96  74 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  94  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  94  78  94  78 /  40  20  20  10
GPT  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  93  77  94  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 200417
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1117 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200417
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1117 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 200111
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
811 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S BALLOON ONCE AGAIN SAMPLED A FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE MIDLEVELS...ESPECIALLY
NOTED BETWEEN 525 AND 400MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TONIGHT/S PW MEASURED
AT 1.97 INCHES. WINDS WERE PRIMIARILY FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 300MB. THEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL TO 100MB. OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUNTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING WITH NO ISSUES.
THE BALLOON TRAVELED 25 MILES DOWNRANGE BEFORE BURSTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN
PLACE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT IN A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP
FOR THE AREA...WITH THE POP HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD ASSIST IN OVERCOMING THE CAP
ALOFT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND ALONG ANY
LAKEBREEZE AND SEABREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS PUSHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RECOVERY FROM THE
HEAT...SO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
RUNS...HAVE WENT THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH
THIS IN MIND...EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONG 595 RIDGE SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...PLACING THE GULF SOUTH IN A MORE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK VORT MAX ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS RISK. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY THE POPS WERE
LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STILL BE FIRMLY
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...BUT SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
AUGUST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE. A NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT AS
A MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS TO THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE RIVER EACH
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED
WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 200111
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
811 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S BALLOON ONCE AGAIN SAMPLED A FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE MIDLEVELS...ESPECIALLY
NOTED BETWEEN 525 AND 400MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TONIGHT/S PW MEASURED
AT 1.97 INCHES. WINDS WERE PRIMIARILY FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 300MB. THEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL TO 100MB. OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUNTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING WITH NO ISSUES.
THE BALLOON TRAVELED 25 MILES DOWNRANGE BEFORE BURSTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN
PLACE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT IN A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP
FOR THE AREA...WITH THE POP HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD ASSIST IN OVERCOMING THE CAP
ALOFT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND ALONG ANY
LAKEBREEZE AND SEABREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS PUSHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RECOVERY FROM THE
HEAT...SO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
RUNS...HAVE WENT THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH
THIS IN MIND...EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONG 595 RIDGE SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...PLACING THE GULF SOUTH IN A MORE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK VORT MAX ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS RISK. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY THE POPS WERE
LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STILL BE FIRMLY
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...BUT SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
AUGUST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE. A NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT AS
A MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS TO THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE RIVER EACH
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED
WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 192027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN
PLACE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT IN A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP
FOR THE AREA...WITH THE POP HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD ASSIST IN OVERCOMING THE CAP
ALOFT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND ALONG ANY
LAKEBREEZE AND SEABREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS PUSHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RECOVERY FROM THE
HEAT...SO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
RUNS...HAVE WENT THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH
THIS IN MIND...EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONG 595 RIDGE SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...PLACING THE GULF SOUTH IN A MORE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK VORT MAX ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS RISK. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY THE POPS WERE
LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STILL BE FIRMLY
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...BUT SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE. A NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT AS
A MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS TO THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE RIVER EACH
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED
WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 191714
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...QUIET NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AFTER 7Z.

LESS CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER TX AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
SHEARING OUT TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
GOING TO LEAD TO SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL KEEP THE POPS ON
THE LOW END. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND PEAK AFTN HEATING MAY STILL
SPARK A FEW SHRA AND TSRA BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
BE MUCH LOWER. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO HEAT UP PROVIDING
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS SUMMER. H925 TEMPS WILL APPROACH
26/27C TODAY AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT BY THU
AND FRI H925 TEMPS COULD HIT 28C LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
COMBINE THOSE TEMPS WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND AFTN
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABV 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR THE ERLYS TO
RETURN. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FCST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW POPS AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE HEADS TO
THE NORTH WE MAY START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTN HIGHS BUT STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. /CAB/

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  10
ASD  92  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  91  76  91  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 191714
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...QUIET NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AFTER 7Z.

LESS CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER TX AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
SHEARING OUT TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
GOING TO LEAD TO SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL KEEP THE POPS ON
THE LOW END. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND PEAK AFTN HEATING MAY STILL
SPARK A FEW SHRA AND TSRA BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
BE MUCH LOWER. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO HEAT UP PROVIDING
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS SUMMER. H925 TEMPS WILL APPROACH
26/27C TODAY AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT BY THU
AND FRI H925 TEMPS COULD HIT 28C LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
COMBINE THOSE TEMPS WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND AFTN
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABV 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR THE ERLYS TO
RETURN. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FCST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW POPS AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE HEADS TO
THE NORTH WE MAY START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTN HIGHS BUT STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. /CAB/

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  10
ASD  92  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  91  76  91  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 190824
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...QUIET NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AFTER 7Z.

LESS CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER TX AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
SHEARING OUT TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
GOING TO LEAD TO SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL KEEP THE POPS ON
THE LOW END. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND PEAK AFTN HEATING MAY STILL
SPARK A FEW SHRA AND TSRA BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
BE MUCH LOWER. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO HEAT UP PROVIDING
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS SUMMER. H925 TEMPS WILL APPROACH
26/27C TODAY AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT BY THU
AND FRI H925 TEMPS COULD HIT 28C LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
COMBINE THOSE TEMPS WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND AFTN
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABV 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR THE ERLYS TO
RETURN. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FCST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW POPS AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE HEADS TO
THE NORTH WE MAY START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTN HIGHS BUT STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. /CAB/

&&.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS THIS FCST PERIOD DUE TO SUCH A LOW PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3KFT AND 4KFT
DURING THE DAY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. SEAS
WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS
AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  10
ASD  92  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  91  76  91  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 190824
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...QUIET NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AFTER 7Z.

LESS CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER TX AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
SHEARING OUT TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
GOING TO LEAD TO SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL KEEP THE POPS ON
THE LOW END. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND PEAK AFTN HEATING MAY STILL
SPARK A FEW SHRA AND TSRA BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
BE MUCH LOWER. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO HEAT UP PROVIDING
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS SUMMER. H925 TEMPS WILL APPROACH
26/27C TODAY AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT BY THU
AND FRI H925 TEMPS COULD HIT 28C LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
COMBINE THOSE TEMPS WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND AFTN
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABV 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR THE ERLYS TO
RETURN. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FCST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW POPS AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE HEADS TO
THE NORTH WE MAY START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTN HIGHS BUT STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. /CAB/

&&.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND THUS WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS THIS FCST PERIOD DUE TO SUCH A LOW PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3KFT AND 4KFT
DURING THE DAY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. SEAS
WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS
AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  10
ASD  92  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  91  76  91  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 190134
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS EVENING AS THE
SUN SETS. THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OUT THERE HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED AT THIS POINT. MLCAPE WAS CALCULATED AT 2400 J/KG AND
THE LIFTED INDEX WAS ALMOST -8. WINDS WERE GENERALLY WESTERLY UP
TO 7.2 MILES AND THEN PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST. A PEAK WIND OF 21
KNOTS WAS LOCATED AROUND 6.5 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: WE HAD TO LAUNCH TWO BALLOONS THIS EVENING AS
THE FIRST BALLOON LOST GPS SIGNAL. SECOND BALLOON WAS SUCCESSFUL
AND BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND OVER MANDEVILLE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE HAS BROUGHT
ENOUGH OMEGA TO THE AREA TO THE PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY
WANES. ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT
TO KEEP SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
SHEARING OUT...AND EXPECT LESS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM...WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT
WILL COMPLETELY SHEAR OUT TOMORROW NIGHT...AND A STRONG 595 H5
RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE GULF SOUTH. THIS STRONG RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES.
HAVE KEPT IN TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO REFLECT THE RISK OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ALONG ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEABREEZE.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX READINGS TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S BOTH DAYS...AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
WILL RISE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
BE WARM...WITH READINGS ONLY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN METRO
NEW ORLEANS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL BE VERY ISOLATED
WITH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LIMITED TO ANY
LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH INCREASED FORCING ALOFT
IN PLACE AND CONTINUED WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE
SURFACE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE AUGUST
AS THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS GROUPS FOR MOST TERMINALS AND WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS TO UPDATE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3KFT AND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

MARINE...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS WEEK...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE AND FALL TO 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED BENEATH A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMA
OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  72  93 /  20  20  10  20
BTR  76  94  75  94 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  92  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  92  78  92 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  91  75  92 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 190134
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS EVENING AS THE
SUN SETS. THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OUT THERE HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED AT THIS POINT. MLCAPE WAS CALCULATED AT 2400 J/KG AND
THE LIFTED INDEX WAS ALMOST -8. WINDS WERE GENERALLY WESTERLY UP
TO 7.2 MILES AND THEN PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST. A PEAK WIND OF 21
KNOTS WAS LOCATED AROUND 6.5 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

00Z BALLOON INFO: WE HAD TO LAUNCH TWO BALLOONS THIS EVENING AS
THE FIRST BALLOON LOST GPS SIGNAL. SECOND BALLOON WAS SUCCESSFUL
AND BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND OVER MANDEVILLE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE HAS BROUGHT
ENOUGH OMEGA TO THE AREA TO THE PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY
WANES. ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT
TO KEEP SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
SHEARING OUT...AND EXPECT LESS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM...WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT
WILL COMPLETELY SHEAR OUT TOMORROW NIGHT...AND A STRONG 595 H5
RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE GULF SOUTH. THIS STRONG RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES.
HAVE KEPT IN TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO REFLECT THE RISK OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ALONG ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEABREEZE.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX READINGS TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S BOTH DAYS...AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
WILL RISE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
BE WARM...WITH READINGS ONLY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN METRO
NEW ORLEANS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL BE VERY ISOLATED
WITH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LIMITED TO ANY
LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH INCREASED FORCING ALOFT
IN PLACE AND CONTINUED WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE
SURFACE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE AUGUST
AS THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS GROUPS FOR MOST TERMINALS AND WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS TO UPDATE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3KFT AND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

MARINE...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS WEEK...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE AND FALL TO 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED BENEATH A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMA
OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  72  93 /  20  20  10  20
BTR  76  94  75  94 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  92  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  92  78  92 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  91  75  92 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 182027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE HAS BROUGHT
ENOUGH OMEGA TO THE AREA TO THE PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY
WANES. ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD SEE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT
TO KEEP SOME VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STILL BE
LINGERING OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
SHEARING OUT...AND EXPECT LESS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WARM...WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL VORT
WILL COMPLETELY SHEAR OUT TOMORROW NIGHT...AND A STRONG 595 H5
RIDGE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE GULF SOUTH. THIS STRONG RIDGE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...RESULTING IN VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES.
HAVE KEPT IN TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO REFLECT THE RISK OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS ALONG ANY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE THE SEABREEZE.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
HUMIDITY WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX READINGS TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S BOTH DAYS...AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
WILL RISE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO
BE WARM...WITH READINGS ONLY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN METRO
NEW ORLEANS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. RAIN WILL BE VERY ISOLATED
WITH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND LIMITED TO ANY
LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER
LEVEL VORT MAX TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH INCREASED FORCING ALOFT
IN PLACE AND CONTINUED WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE
SURFACE...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR BOTH DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE AUGUST
AS THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS GROUPS FOR MOST TERMINALS AND WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS TO UPDATE IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3KFT AND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS WEEK...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE AND FALL TO 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED BENEATH A LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL WIND MAXIMA
OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  94  72  93 /  20  20  10  20
BTR  76  94  75  94 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  92  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  92  78  92 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  91  75  92 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 180912
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
412 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1009MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
KENTUCKY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH ARKANSAS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS MAINTAINED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A SWATH OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE ARKLATEX REGION TO WEST
TENNESSEE AND A BROAD SWATH OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO NORTH FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND
HIGHS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EAST
GULF. 18


&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO NORTH ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...EAST TO WEST WITH THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 90F
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THIS APPROACHING WAVE...EXPECT HIGH
END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EAST GULF AND FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST BY TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
RELATIVE DRY ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE ACROSS THE EAST GULF AND THIS
WILL SUPPRESS A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. ERGO...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. 18


.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST GULF AND FLORIDA WILL
EXPAND NORTHWEST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY. EURO AND GFS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS UP TO 5950M FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. GFS HAS 5H TEMPS
AROUND -5C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE EURO REMAINS AROUND -6. IN
ADDITION...GFS HAS LOWERED THEIR PW VALUES TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LAYER DRYING. A GENERAL
DESCENT WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND INTENSE
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED MAY EXCEED 105 IN SOME SPOTS
EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS WEEK...WILL MONITOR. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE MID SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES BY SUNDAY ACCORDING TO GFS. LOOK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST IMPACTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HUM AND THE NEW ORLEANS
TERMINALS ARE QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BEING IMPACTED BY STORMS.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AROUND STORMS. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. MOST STORMS WILL NOT LAST MUCH MORE THAN AN HOUR
AND IMPACTS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 30 MINUTES OR LESS. EXPECT MOST
CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. SEAS
WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS
AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  93  74 /  50  40  20  10
BTR  94  75  94  75 /  50  40  20  10
ASD  92  77  92  76 /  40  40  20  10
MSY  92  77  93  77 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  90  78  90  78 /  40  40  20  10
PQL  90  76  90  76 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 180912
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
412 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1009MB LOW OVER NORTHERN
KENTUCKY WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH ARKANSAS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS MAINTAINED SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A SWATH OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE ARKLATEX REGION TO WEST
TENNESSEE AND A BROAD SWATH OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TO NORTH FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND
HIGHS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EAST
GULF. 18


&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TO NORTH ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...EAST TO WEST WITH THE
NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. WITH SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 90F
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THIS APPROACHING WAVE...EXPECT HIGH
END SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EAST GULF AND FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND WEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST BY TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
RELATIVE DRY ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE ACROSS THE EAST GULF AND THIS
WILL SUPPRESS A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY. ERGO...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS. 18


.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST GULF AND FLORIDA WILL
EXPAND NORTHWEST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
BECOME AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY. EURO AND GFS SHOW SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HEIGHTS UP TO 5950M FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. GFS HAS 5H TEMPS
AROUND -5C THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE EURO REMAINS AROUND -6. IN
ADDITION...GFS HAS LOWERED THEIR PW VALUES TO 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LAYER DRYING. A GENERAL
DESCENT WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND INTENSE
SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED MAY EXCEED 105 IN SOME SPOTS
EACH AFTERNOON. HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS WEEK...WILL MONITOR. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE MID SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW. PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES BY SUNDAY ACCORDING TO GFS. LOOK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND...MORE COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST IMPACTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. HUM AND THE NEW ORLEANS
TERMINALS ARE QUESTIONABLE IN TERMS OF BEING IMPACTED BY STORMS.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS AROUND STORMS. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. MOST STORMS WILL NOT LAST MUCH MORE THAN AN HOUR
AND IMPACTS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 30 MINUTES OR LESS. EXPECT MOST
CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. SEAS
WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS
AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  93  74 /  50  40  20  10
BTR  94  75  94  75 /  50  40  20  10
ASD  92  77  92  76 /  40  40  20  10
MSY  92  77  93  77 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  90  78  90  78 /  40  40  20  10
PQL  90  76  90  76 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 180151
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
851 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING SAMPLED AN AIRMASS WELL REMOVED FROM THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT WAS MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.08 INCHES
AND A MLCAPE OF 1979 J/KG. THE ENTIRE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WAS FREE
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSIONS. WINDS UP TO 250 MB WERE
DOMINANTLY WESTERLY WITH A PEAK SPEED OF 23 KNOTS NEAR 2000
FEET...WHICH WAS INTERESTINGLY THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LOWEST
55K FEET. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND
02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY ABOUT 15Z ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...LESS AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THAN TODAY.
BRIEF PERIODS OF 2500 FT CEILINGS...WIND GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND
VISBILITIES 1-3SM POSSIBLE IN THE TSRA MONDAY AFTN.  14/MM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
NORTH TEXAS SERVING AS A SOURCE REGION OF FOCUSED MOISTURE TAPPED
FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SUBTLE ENERGY
PACKETS WERE BECOMING ACTIVATED ON THE GULF BREEZE TO PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SIMILIAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AS GULF BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH SOME BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TODAY WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES
MONDAY AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO DRYING. THIS STILL WARRANTS 40
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY RAINFALL ONSET AND
EVENTUAL ANVIL EXPANSE OVER AREA.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENSION FROM LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AND ESTABLISH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL START TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENT
PROXIMAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RAIN CHANCES IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED 10 PERCENT AND AROUND 20 PERCENT WHERE
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY BRIEFLY AID IN SHORT-LIVED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
TO 20 PERCENT AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY ERODES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MID 90S
MID TO LATE WEEK.

MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO ISOLATED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE NEAR SHORE.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST IMPACTS NOW
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION OF VCTS EARLY FROM KHUM...KMSY AND KNEW.
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS...IFR VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. LIFE CYCLE OF ANY ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN
LESS THAN AN HOUR. IMPACTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES
OR LESS. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY
ABOUT 15Z ON MONDAY...BUT PROBABLY SOMEWHAT LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  40  20
BTR  75  94  76  94 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  77  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  20
MSY  77  92  78  92 /  20  30  30  20
GPT  78  90  79  90 /  30  40  40  20
PQL  76  90  77  90 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 180151
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
851 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING SAMPLED AN AIRMASS WELL REMOVED FROM THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT WAS MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2.08 INCHES
AND A MLCAPE OF 1979 J/KG. THE ENTIRE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WAS FREE
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSIONS. WINDS UP TO 250 MB WERE
DOMINANTLY WESTERLY WITH A PEAK SPEED OF 23 KNOTS NEAR 2000
FEET...WHICH WAS INTERESTINGLY THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LOWEST
55K FEET. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND
02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY ABOUT 15Z ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...LESS AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THAN TODAY.
BRIEF PERIODS OF 2500 FT CEILINGS...WIND GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND
VISBILITIES 1-3SM POSSIBLE IN THE TSRA MONDAY AFTN.  14/MM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
NORTH TEXAS SERVING AS A SOURCE REGION OF FOCUSED MOISTURE TAPPED
FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SUBTLE ENERGY
PACKETS WERE BECOMING ACTIVATED ON THE GULF BREEZE TO PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SIMILIAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AS GULF BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH SOME BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TODAY WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES
MONDAY AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO DRYING. THIS STILL WARRANTS 40
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY RAINFALL ONSET AND
EVENTUAL ANVIL EXPANSE OVER AREA.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENSION FROM LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AND ESTABLISH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL START TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENT
PROXIMAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RAIN CHANCES IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED 10 PERCENT AND AROUND 20 PERCENT WHERE
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY BRIEFLY AID IN SHORT-LIVED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
TO 20 PERCENT AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY ERODES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MID 90S
MID TO LATE WEEK.

MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO ISOLATED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE NEAR SHORE.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST IMPACTS NOW
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION OF VCTS EARLY FROM KHUM...KMSY AND KNEW.
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS...IFR VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. LIFE CYCLE OF ANY ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN
LESS THAN AN HOUR. IMPACTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES
OR LESS. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY
ABOUT 15Z ON MONDAY...BUT PROBABLY SOMEWHAT LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  40  20
BTR  75  94  76  94 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  77  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  20
MSY  77  92  78  92 /  20  30  30  20
GPT  78  90  79  90 /  30  40  40  20
PQL  76  90  77  90 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 172340 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND
02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY ABOUT 15Z ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...LESS AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THAN TODAY.
BRIEF PERIODS OF 2500 FT CEILINGS...WIND GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND
VISBILITIES 1-3SM POSSIBLE IN THE TSRA MONDAY AFTN.  14/MM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
NORTH TEXAS SERVING AS A SOURCE REGION OF FOCUSED MOISTURE TAPPED
FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SUBTLE ENERGY
PACKETS WERE BECOMING ACTIVATED ON THE GULF BREEZE TO PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SIMILIAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AS GULF BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH SOME BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TODAY WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES
MONDAY AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO DRYING. THIS STILL WARRANTS 40
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY RAINFALL ONSET AND
EVENTUAL ANVIL EXPANSE OVER AREA.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENSION FROM LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AND ESTABLISH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL START TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENT
PROXIMAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RAIN CHANCES IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED 10 PERCENT AND AROUND 20 PERCENT WHERE
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY BRIEFLY AID IN SHORT-LIVED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
TO 20 PERCENT AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY ERODES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MID 90S
MID TO LATE WEEK.

MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO ISOLATED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE NEAR SHORE.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST IMPACTS NOW
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION OF VCTS EARLY FROM KHUM...KMSY AND KNEW.
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS...IFR VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. LIFE CYCLE OF ANY ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN
LESS THAN AN HOUR. IMPACTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES
OR LESS. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY
ABOUT 15Z ON MONDAY...BUT PROBABLY SOMEWHAT LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  40  20
BTR  75  94  76  94 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  77  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  20
MSY  77  92  78  92 /  20  30  30  20
GPT  78  90  79  90 /  30  40  40  20
PQL  76  90  77  90 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 172340 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND
02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY ABOUT 15Z ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER...LESS AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THAN TODAY.
BRIEF PERIODS OF 2500 FT CEILINGS...WIND GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND
VISBILITIES 1-3SM POSSIBLE IN THE TSRA MONDAY AFTN.  14/MM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
NORTH TEXAS SERVING AS A SOURCE REGION OF FOCUSED MOISTURE TAPPED
FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SUBTLE ENERGY
PACKETS WERE BECOMING ACTIVATED ON THE GULF BREEZE TO PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SIMILIAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AS GULF BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH SOME BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TODAY WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES
MONDAY AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO DRYING. THIS STILL WARRANTS 40
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY RAINFALL ONSET AND
EVENTUAL ANVIL EXPANSE OVER AREA.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENSION FROM LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AND ESTABLISH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL START TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENT
PROXIMAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RAIN CHANCES IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED 10 PERCENT AND AROUND 20 PERCENT WHERE
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY BRIEFLY AID IN SHORT-LIVED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
TO 20 PERCENT AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY ERODES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MID 90S
MID TO LATE WEEK.

MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO ISOLATED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE NEAR SHORE.

AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST IMPACTS NOW
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION OF VCTS EARLY FROM KHUM...KMSY AND KNEW.
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS...IFR VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. LIFE CYCLE OF ANY ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN
LESS THAN AN HOUR. IMPACTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES
OR LESS. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY
ABOUT 15Z ON MONDAY...BUT PROBABLY SOMEWHAT LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  40  20
BTR  75  94  76  94 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  77  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  20
MSY  77  92  78  92 /  20  30  30  20
GPT  78  90  79  90 /  30  40  40  20
PQL  76  90  77  90 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 172013
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
313 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
NORTH TEXAS SERVING AS A SOURCE REGION OF FOCUSED MOISTURE TAPPED
FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SUBTLE ENERGY
PACKETS WERE BECOMING ACTIVATED ON THE GULF BREEZE TO PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SIMILIAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AS GULF BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH SOME BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TODAY WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES
MONDAY AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO DRYING. THIS STILL WARRANTS 40
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY RAINFALL ONSET AND
EVENTUAL ANVIL EXPANSE OVER AREA.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENSION FROM LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AND ESTABLISH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL START TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENT
PROXIMAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RAIN CHANCES IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED 10 PERCENT AND AROUND 20 PERCENT WHERE
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY BRIEFLY AID IN SHORT-LIVED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
TO 20 PERCENT AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY ERODES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MID 90S
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO ISOLATED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE NEAR SHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST IMPACTS NOW
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION OF VCTS EARLY FROM KHUM...KMSY AND KNEW.
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS...IFR VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. LIFE CYCLE OF ANY ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN
LESS THAN AN HOUR. IMPACTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES
OR LESS. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY
ABOUT 15Z ON MONDAY...BUT PROBABLY SOMEWHAT LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  40  20
BTR  75  94  76  94 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  77  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  20
MSY  77  92  78  92 /  20  30  30  20
GPT  78  90  79  90 /  30  40  40  20
PQL  76  90  77  90 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35






000
FXUS64 KLIX 172013
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
313 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
NORTH TEXAS SERVING AS A SOURCE REGION OF FOCUSED MOISTURE TAPPED
FROM TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SUBTLE ENERGY
PACKETS WERE BECOMING ACTIVATED ON THE GULF BREEZE TO PRODUCE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SIMILIAR SITUATION FOR MONDAY AS GULF BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH SOME BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TODAY WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO AROUND 1.9 INCHES
MONDAY AS MID LEVELS UNDERGO DRYING. THIS STILL WARRANTS 40
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED BY RAINFALL ONSET AND
EVENTUAL ANVIL EXPANSE OVER AREA.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENSION FROM LARGE ATLANTIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF AND ESTABLISH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL START TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AND SUBSEQUENT
PROXIMAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. RAIN CHANCES IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED 10 PERCENT AND AROUND 20 PERCENT WHERE
LAKE AND GULF BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY BRIEFLY AID IN SHORT-LIVED
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
TO 20 PERCENT AREA-WIDE NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY ERODES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE MID 90S
MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERAL LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING ALONG THE NORTH GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO ISOLATED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH LAND BREEZE NEAR SHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST IMPACTS NOW
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THROUGH 21Z...MAY BE
ABLE TO REMOVE MENTION OF VCTS EARLY FROM KHUM...KMSY AND KNEW.
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS...IFR VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. LIFE CYCLE OF ANY ONE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN
LESS THAN AN HOUR. IMPACTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES
OR LESS. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OUT BY 01Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LIKELY BY
ABOUT 15Z ON MONDAY...BUT PROBABLY SOMEWHAT LESS AREAL COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  40  20
BTR  75  94  76  94 /  20  40  40  20
ASD  77  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  20
MSY  77  92  78  92 /  20  30  30  20
GPT  78  90  79  90 /  30  40  40  20
PQL  76  90  77  90 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35







000
FXUS64 KLIX 171345
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
845 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SAMPLED THIS MORNING. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS MEASURED AT 2.08 INCHES AND THE LOW
LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST WHILE THERE IS A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ALMOST 3000 J/KG
AND THE LIFTED INDEX IS -9...SO PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO USE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WHILE THERE IS THE
USUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION...THAT WILL NOT INHIBIT
CONVECTION AS IT WILL EASILY MIX OUT WITH A BIT OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOLLOWS THE
PSEUDO-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH A PEAK WIND OF 20 KNOTS AT A HEIGHT OF 7000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 14000
FEET...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ABOVE THIS LEVEL. STORM MOTION WILL
BE 279 AT 9 KNOTS.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON
REACHED A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE SURFACE BEFORE BURSTING
OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1018MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
AND 1009MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY
FLOW HIGH TO LOW AND LIGHT SOUTH FLOW HAS ADVECT IN DEWPOINT
READINGS ABV 70F OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A SWATH OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
AND ANOTHER SWATH OF 1.8 INCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
AXIS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGH
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA. 18

SHORT TERM...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 1.8 INCHES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDING FROM GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 3 AND 4KJ/KG IN THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT IN
A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 500MB. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS AROUND
90F LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL CREATE MODERATE LAPSE RATES
AND WARMING LAYER SHOULD NOT SERVE AS AN INHIBITOR OR CAP. LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE TODAY AND MONDAY. MORNING TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S AND SURFACE WITH MOISTURE IN PLAY EACH MORNING. 18

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING GFS AND
EURO...5OOMB HEIGHTS INCREASE 5930 TO 5940M OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH SHIFT THE HIGH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 5H TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -7C ON
TUESDAY AND CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
HOWEVER...TEMPS AT 5H ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL INCREASE TO
-6C AND THIS SLIGHT INCREASE AND GENERAL DESCENT WILL SUPPRESS
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD ISOLATED
CONVECTION...VERY ISOLATED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH ON TOP
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED MAY EXCEED 105 IN SOME
SPOTS EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND RAIN CHANCES PROVIDING RELIEF FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL MONITOR. 18

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN CONTROL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO KMCB AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  ANY FOG
SHOULD CLEAR BY 13Z.  THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK. IF CONVECTION DOES IMPACT A
TERMINAL...A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS WILL TEND
TO LAST FOR AN HOUR OR LESS. 32

MARINE...

A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 FEET.  WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  40  20
BTR  94  75  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  40  20
MSY  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  30  20
GPT  90  78  90  79 /  40  20  40  20
PQL  90  76  90  77 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 171345
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
845 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SAMPLED THIS MORNING. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS MEASURED AT 2.08 INCHES AND THE LOW
LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST WHILE THERE IS A BIT OF DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ALMOST 3000 J/KG
AND THE LIFTED INDEX IS -9...SO PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO USE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WHILE THERE IS THE
USUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION...THAT WILL NOT INHIBIT
CONVECTION AS IT WILL EASILY MIX OUT WITH A BIT OF DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOLLOWS THE
PSEUDO-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH A PEAK WIND OF 20 KNOTS AT A HEIGHT OF 7000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 14000
FEET...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ABOVE THIS LEVEL. STORM MOTION WILL
BE 279 AT 9 KNOTS.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE BALLOON
REACHED A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE THE SURFACE BEFORE BURSTING
OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1018MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
AND 1009MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY
FLOW HIGH TO LOW AND LIGHT SOUTH FLOW HAS ADVECT IN DEWPOINT
READINGS ABV 70F OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A SWATH OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
AND ANOTHER SWATH OF 1.8 INCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
AXIS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGH
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA. 18

SHORT TERM...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 1.8 INCHES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDING FROM GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 3 AND 4KJ/KG IN THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT IN
A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 500MB. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS AROUND
90F LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL CREATE MODERATE LAPSE RATES
AND WARMING LAYER SHOULD NOT SERVE AS AN INHIBITOR OR CAP. LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE TODAY AND MONDAY. MORNING TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S AND SURFACE WITH MOISTURE IN PLAY EACH MORNING. 18

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING GFS AND
EURO...5OOMB HEIGHTS INCREASE 5930 TO 5940M OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH SHIFT THE HIGH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 5H TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -7C ON
TUESDAY AND CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
HOWEVER...TEMPS AT 5H ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL INCREASE TO
-6C AND THIS SLIGHT INCREASE AND GENERAL DESCENT WILL SUPPRESS
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD ISOLATED
CONVECTION...VERY ISOLATED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH ON TOP
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED MAY EXCEED 105 IN SOME
SPOTS EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL UNCERTAINTY WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND RAIN CHANCES PROVIDING RELIEF FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL MONITOR. 18

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN CONTROL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO KMCB AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  ANY FOG
SHOULD CLEAR BY 13Z.  THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK. IF CONVECTION DOES IMPACT A
TERMINAL...A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS WILL TEND
TO LAST FOR AN HOUR OR LESS. 32

MARINE...

A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 FEET.  WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  40  20
BTR  94  75  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  40  20
MSY  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  30  20
GPT  90  78  90  79 /  40  20  40  20
PQL  90  76  90  77 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 170925
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1018MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
AND 1009MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY
FLOW HIGH TO LOW AND LIGHT SOUTH FLOW HAS ADVECT IN DEWPOINT
READINGS ABV 70F OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A SWATH OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI
AND ANOTHER SWATH OF 1.8 INCHES FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
AXIS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND HIGH
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND OVER FLORIDA PENINSULA. 18

&&


.SHORT TERM...

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 1.8 INCHES
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDING FROM GFS SHOW CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 3 AND 4KJ/KG IN THE MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT IN
A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 500MB. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS AROUND
90F LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL CREATE MODERATE LAPSE RATES
AND WARMING LAYER SHOULD NOT SERVE AS AN INHIBITOR OR CAP. LIFT
SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE TODAY AND MONDAY. MORNING TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 70S AND SURFACE WITH MOISTURE IN PLAY EACH MORNING. 18

.LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACCORDING GFS AND
EURO...5OOMB HEIGHTS INCREASE 5930 TO 5940M OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH SHIFT THE HIGH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 5H TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -7C ON
TUESDAY AND CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.
HOWEVER...TEMPS AT 5H ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL INCREASE TO
-6C AND THIS SLIGHT INCREASE AND GENERAL DESCENT WILL SUPPRESS
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP
WILL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WILL YIELD
ISOLATED CONVECTION...VERY ISOLATED ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED MAY EXCEED 105
IN SOME SPOTS EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL UNCERTAINTY
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND RAIN CHANCES PROVIDING RELIEF FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...HEAT ADVISORY MAYBE NEEDED FOR PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WILL MONITOR. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN CONTROL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY BRING A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO KMCB AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING.  ANY FOG
SHOULD CLEAR BY 13Z.  THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE TERMINALS AFTER 15Z. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK. IF CONVECTION DOES IMPACT A
TERMINAL...A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
OF UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS WILL TEND
TO LAST FOR AN HOUR OR LESS. 32

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 FEET.  WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  40  20
BTR  94  75  94  76 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  40  20
MSY  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  30  20
GPT  90  78  90  79 /  40  20  40  20
PQL  90  76  90  77 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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