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000
FXUS64 KLIX 240532
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER POTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN CONDITIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR AT MOST
TAF LOCATIONS. THE WORST CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS WHERE
SOME ADVECTION FOG WAS ALSO BEING OBSERVED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON MONDAY. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  64  40  58 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  55  67  39  61 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  55  68  38  59 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  59  68  46  59 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  59  71  40  59 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  72  37  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 240345
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
945 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...
MARINE FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THIS AREA. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  52  64  40 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  75  55  67  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  75  55  68  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  75  59  68  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  73  59  71  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  73  57  72  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 240345
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
945 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.MARINE...
MARINE FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INNER COASTAL WATERS THAT WAS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THIS AREA. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  52  64  40 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  75  55  67  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  75  55  68  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  75  59  68  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  73  59  71  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  73  57  72  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 240020
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
620 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK BELOW 600MB AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IN EXCESS OF 5 DEGREES CELSIUS IS NOTED FROM THE PREVIOUS
00Z SOUNDING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25
KNOTS NOTED. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  64  40  58 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  55  67  39  61 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  55  68  38  59 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  59  68  46  59 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  59  71  40  59 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  72  37  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 240020
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
620 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY WEAK BELOW 600MB AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING IN EXCESS OF 5 DEGREES CELSIUS IS NOTED FROM THE PREVIOUS
00Z SOUNDING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25
KNOTS NOTED. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  64  40  58 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  55  67  39  61 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  55  68  38  59 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  59  68  46  59 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  59  71  40  59 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  72  37  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 232115
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS TODAY. STRONGEST STORMS THANKFULLY STAYED
OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
BETTER INSTABILITY WERE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EVEN
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. EXPECT A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS INTO HIGHER GEAR MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN COULD ALSO BLEED OVER INTO LAND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE LAKE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 60
DEGREES.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AS THE JET STREAK ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...A
REINFORCING HIGH WILL BUILD IN AND THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AND TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SQUALL LINE MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WITHOUT TOO MUCH
FANFARE. DID MEASURE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS AS CONVECTION MOVED
THROUGH. THOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN RELAXING THIS
EVENING...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
TONIGHT AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR OPEN
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ARE AGAIN...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
GRADUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME ADVECTION FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS NEAR KMSY...KNEW...KHUM...KASD...AND KGPT. ANY
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AROUND
DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR SURGES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20
KNOTS AT KMSY AND KNEW MONDAY MORNING. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  64  40  58 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  55  67  39  61 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  55  68  38  59 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  59  68  46  59 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  59  71  40  59 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  72  37  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLIX 232115
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS TODAY. STRONGEST STORMS THANKFULLY STAYED
OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WHERE THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
BETTER INSTABILITY WERE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SWING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. EVEN
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. EXPECT A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS INTO HIGHER GEAR MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS MONDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ALONG/NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10/12 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN COULD ALSO BLEED OVER INTO LAND AREAS IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE LAKE. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 60
DEGREES.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME SHOWERS AS THE JET STREAK ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH
ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. AM CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...A
REINFORCING HIGH WILL BUILD IN AND THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AND TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SQUALL LINE MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WITHOUT TOO MUCH
FANFARE. DID MEASURE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS AS CONVECTION MOVED
THROUGH. THOUGH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN RELAXING THIS
EVENING...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
TONIGHT AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR OPEN
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A REINFORCING
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ARE AGAIN...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
GRADUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME ADVECTION FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS NEAR KMSY...KNEW...KHUM...KASD...AND KGPT. ANY
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AROUND
DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR SURGES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST OVER 20
KNOTS AT KMSY AND KNEW MONDAY MORNING. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  64  40  58 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  55  67  39  61 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  55  68  38  59 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  59  68  46  59 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  59  71  40  59 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  72  37  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 231813
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1213 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS ENDED AT ALL THE TAF AIRPORTS...SO THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE
FIRST 6 HOURS WILL BE LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT 20Z-22Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR
KHUM...KASD...AND KGPT. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST LOW IFR CIGS AT
KMSY AND KNEW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER SO HAVE LEFT OUT THE
LOWER CONDITIONS FOR NOW. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AROUND DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ON MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  75  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  75  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  75  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  73  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  73  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 231813
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1213 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS ENDED AT ALL THE TAF AIRPORTS...SO THE MAIN IMPACT IN THE
FIRST 6 HOURS WILL BE LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT 20Z-22Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS NEAR
KHUM...KASD...AND KGPT. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST LOW IFR CIGS AT
KMSY AND KNEW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER SO HAVE LEFT OUT THE
LOWER CONDITIONS FOR NOW. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AROUND DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER ON MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR SURGES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  75  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  75  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  75  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  73  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  73  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 230950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

&&

.MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  77  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  77  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 230950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

&&

.MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  77  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  77  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 230950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

&&

.MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  77  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  77  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 230950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

&&

.MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  77  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  77  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 230654
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT
ALSO A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A DEEP MARINE LAYER RESIDING OVER
THE AREA. 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 381 M2/S2 AND A
DEVELOPING 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ARE NOTED. HOWEVER...THE MARINE
LAYER EXTENDS UP TO NEARLY 4000 FEET AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN
VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES ARE
POSITIVE. THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF MODIFICATION TO
THE AIRMASS IN ORDER FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
AT MOST...THIS SOUNDING IS CONDUCIVE TO SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  53  64  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  76  53  64  39 /  90  10  10  10
ASD  76  55  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  57  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  57  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 230525
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. SHOWERS
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 / 100 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 / 100  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 / 100 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 / 100 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 / 100 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 230525
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. SHOWERS
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 / 100 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 / 100  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 / 100 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 / 100 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 / 100 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 230040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG 4 DEGREE CELSIUS
ELEVATED CAP AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS CAP STILL IN PLACE...THE RISK
OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS
BASICALLY NIL. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES WILL NEED TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR CONVECTIVE RISK
TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WITH PW VALUES RISING NEARLY HALF AN INCH SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN EXCESS OF 25
KNOTS.  A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT WILL BE DONE AT 06Z TO GET ANOTHER
ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 230040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG 4 DEGREE CELSIUS
ELEVATED CAP AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS CAP STILL IN PLACE...THE RISK
OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS
BASICALLY NIL. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES WILL NEED TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR CONVECTIVE RISK
TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WITH PW VALUES RISING NEARLY HALF AN INCH SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN EXCESS OF 25
KNOTS.  A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT WILL BE DONE AT 06Z TO GET ANOTHER
ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 222122
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE NAILING DOWN TIMING AND
EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED AND GENERALLY ONLY SMALL
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.

BASE OF TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO IS CLEARLY INDICATED
ON WV IMAGERY. SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER WEST
TEXAS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS WITH A FEW WARNINGS ALREADY BEING ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT. GFS AND EURO ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A JET
STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. PW VALUES ARE ON THE RISE AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL INDICATE THAT PW VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. 00Z BALLOON DATA WILL GIVE A GOOD INDICATION IF THIS
MOISTENING IS OCCURRING.

LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY AS BEST
CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF. GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NAM AND EURO
INDICATE MAX ML CAPE OVER LAND AROUND 500 J/KG AND THAT WILL ONLY
BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS COULD KEEP STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS JUST
OFF SHORE. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION WILL BE WHETHER ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL CUT OFF INFLOW OVER LAND AREAS.

THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF PARAMETERS THAT WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED OVER LAND AREAS. SR HELICITY PEAKS IN THE 400 TO 600
M2/S2 RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON
LOCATION AND MODEL OF CHOICE...SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SQUALL LINE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AND WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE WILL BE MOST LIKELY.
AGAIN...WITH STRONG HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
LOCAL AREA BY ABOUT NOON WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. IN FACT...WHILE TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...AM CURRENTLY
NOT FORECASTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS A SQUALL LINES MOVES
THROUGH...SO HAVE ADDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP WITH THESE GUSTS
ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS DURING THE PERIOD OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER
SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22/TD
MARINE...CAB
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






000
FXUS64 KLIX 222122
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE NAILING DOWN TIMING AND
EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED AND GENERALLY ONLY SMALL
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.

BASE OF TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO IS CLEARLY INDICATED
ON WV IMAGERY. SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER WEST
TEXAS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS WITH A FEW WARNINGS ALREADY BEING ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT. GFS AND EURO ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A JET
STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. PW VALUES ARE ON THE RISE AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL INDICATE THAT PW VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. 00Z BALLOON DATA WILL GIVE A GOOD INDICATION IF THIS
MOISTENING IS OCCURRING.

LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY AS BEST
CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF. GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NAM AND EURO
INDICATE MAX ML CAPE OVER LAND AROUND 500 J/KG AND THAT WILL ONLY
BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS COULD KEEP STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS JUST
OFF SHORE. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION WILL BE WHETHER ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL CUT OFF INFLOW OVER LAND AREAS.

THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF PARAMETERS THAT WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED OVER LAND AREAS. SR HELICITY PEAKS IN THE 400 TO 600
M2/S2 RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON
LOCATION AND MODEL OF CHOICE...SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SQUALL LINE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AND WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE WILL BE MOST LIKELY.
AGAIN...WITH STRONG HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
LOCAL AREA BY ABOUT NOON WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. IN FACT...WHILE TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...AM CURRENTLY
NOT FORECASTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS A SQUALL LINES MOVES
THROUGH...SO HAVE ADDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP WITH THESE GUSTS
ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS DURING THE PERIOD OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER
SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22/TD
MARINE...CAB
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221839
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO HAVE A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS A SQUALL LINES MOVES
THROUGH...SO HAVE ADDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP WITH THESE GUSTS
ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS DURING THE PERIOD OF TSRA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES MAINLY TO ELIMINATE THE HIGHER POPS
THAT BLED OVER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD FROM THE EVENING
PERIOD. HAVE REDUCED POPS GENERALLY TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS...AND FRANKLY EVEN THAT
MIGHT BE GENEROUS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  20  90 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  30 100  90  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  30  90 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  30  90 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  20  80 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  20  70 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 221839
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO HAVE A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS A SQUALL LINES MOVES
THROUGH...SO HAVE ADDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP WITH THESE GUSTS
ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS DURING THE PERIOD OF TSRA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES MAINLY TO ELIMINATE THE HIGHER POPS
THAT BLED OVER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD FROM THE EVENING
PERIOD. HAVE REDUCED POPS GENERALLY TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS...AND FRANKLY EVEN THAT
MIGHT BE GENEROUS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  20  90 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  30 100  90  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  30  90 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  30  90 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  20  80 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  20  70 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 221437
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES MAINLY TO ELIMINATE THE HIGHER POPS
THAT BLED OVER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD FROM THE EVENING
PERIOD. HAVE REDUCED POPS GENERALLY TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS...AND FRANKLY EVEN THAT
MIGHT BE GENEROUS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  20  90 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  30 100  90  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  30  90 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  30  90 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  20  80 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  20  70 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...95/DM
PREV DISCUSSION...MH/CAB






000
FXUS64 KLIX 221100 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
PLAYING /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLIX 221100 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
PLAYING /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 220531
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 220531
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 220048
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
648 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING BY .15 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. BELOW
850MB...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AROUND 850 TO 750MB...SOME WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW HAS KEPT A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THIS
LAYER...AND HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION
OF AROUND 3 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A RESULT...ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY
WAS CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 5000 FEET.  32


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 220048
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
648 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING BY .15 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. BELOW
850MB...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AROUND 850 TO 750MB...SOME WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW HAS KEPT A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THIS
LAYER...AND HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION
OF AROUND 3 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A RESULT...ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY
WAS CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 5000 FEET.  32


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM








000
FXUS64 KLIX 211727 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
BEGIN DETERIORATING AS MARINE LAYER FETCH STARTS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING DYNAMIC SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND ADVANCE TO THE MORE INTERIOR TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING STEADY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TIDES ARE STILL BEHAVING BUT EXTRA-TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
NEAR PLUS 2 FOOT ANOMALIES FOR SATURDAY HIGH TIDE. NO CHANGES TO THINKING
AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX/HEAVY RAINFALL/COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
             FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 211727 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
BEGIN DETERIORATING AS MARINE LAYER FETCH STARTS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING DYNAMIC SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND ADVANCE TO THE MORE INTERIOR TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING STEADY INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TIDES ARE STILL BEHAVING BUT EXTRA-TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
NEAR PLUS 2 FOOT ANOMALIES FOR SATURDAY HIGH TIDE. NO CHANGES TO THINKING
AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX/HEAVY RAINFALL/COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
             FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLIX 211003
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 211003
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENCOMPASSING A
MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CONUS IS EJECTING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND AND WILL DOMINATE THE SERN CONUS AS
WELL. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN  EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. IN RETURN...MOISTURE LEVELS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...MORESO ON SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPWARD TREND TODAY. WENT WITH A MOSTLY MAV GUIDANCE MAX TEMP
FORECAST AS IT PERFORMED QUITE WELL YSTRDY.

.LONG TERM...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WELL
ESTABLISHED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP WATER COMING UP TO OVER
1.5 INCHES LATE IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
TEXAS AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MID LEVEL COOLING FROM LOWERING HEIGHTS
AND LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SURGING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MODELS
INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY THIS RUN WITH -LI/S -4 TO -8 AND
CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS IS NOT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THE LOWER MOISTURE
MAY KEEP CAPE DOWN TO 500 J/KG OR LESS AND THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED. THE OPPOSITE AFFECT WILL THE CASE FOR SRH. THE STRONGEST
HELICITY WILL BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE STRONGER...POSSIBLY OVER 500 M2/S2...AND HALF THAT ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL SHEAR SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH BULK SHEAR
OF 70+KTS. OF OTHER NOTE IS THE POSSIBLE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH IS THE MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
RECENT STRONG COLD FRONTS HAVE DROPPED NEARSHORE WATERS TO BELOW 60
DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST WEST OF LAFOURCHE PARISH...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE SOUNDS. OTHER AREAS...ESP SOUTH OF THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO...STILL HAS WATER TEMPS NEAR 70 DEGREES. SO COULD HAVE
INTERMITTENT SHADOWING OR WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THE PASS FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME FORM OF THIS MARINE
LAYER AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALL IN ALL...FEELING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR THE BE THE GREATEST THREAT. HAIL TO A LESSER DEGREE
MAINLY DUE TO WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AT 12KFT.

CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER AS
A DEEP TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  49  70  61 /  10  10  40  90
BTR  72  51  73  62 /  10  10  60  90
ASD  71  51  71  61 /  10  10  60  90
MSY  72  57  72  65 /  10  10  70  90
GPT  70  52  68  62 /  10  10  50  90
PQL  70  48  69  61 /   0  10  50  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









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