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000
FXUS64 KLIX 272049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GORGEOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON LOCATION...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. THINK GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO COOL WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS TOMORROW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED
OR AT LEAST WEAKENED SIGNIFICANT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. ADD IN FULL SUNSHINE WITH A RISING SUN ANGLE...AND
THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK INSTEAD OF
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THUS AM
CARRYING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND WARMING TREND BEGINS
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...RISING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STILL
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER
LEVEL PUSH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE STALLING BOUNDARY
COULD STILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS RESULTS IN
SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE OTHER WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE REFINING THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER.

BEYOND MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH 0Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KNEW WHERE WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  71  48  76 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  45  74  53  79 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  41  72  48  75 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  49  72  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  45  68  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  40  70  44  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...13/MH
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





000
FXUS64 KLIX 272049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GORGEOUS WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THIS
WEEKEND AS COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING
ON LOCATION...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S
NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST. THINK GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO COOL WITH
REGARDS TO HIGHS TOMORROW. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE CEASED
OR AT LEAST WEAKENED SIGNIFICANT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY. ADD IN FULL SUNSHINE WITH A RISING SUN ANGLE...AND
THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK INSTEAD OF
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THUS AM
CARRYING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WITH FORECAST
AFTERNOON TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND WARMING TREND BEGINS
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...RISING ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STILL
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER
LEVEL PUSH AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE STALLING BOUNDARY
COULD STILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
INDICATE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS EITHER SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. THIS RESULTS IN
SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY THAT ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS WILL SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE OTHER WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE REFINING THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THE SITUATION BECOMES CLEARER.

BEYOND MIDWEEK...ANOTHER FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
STRONG IT WILL BE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH 0Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KNEW WHERE WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  71  48  76 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  45  74  53  79 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  41  72  48  75 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  49  72  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  45  68  51  72 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  40  70  44  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...13/MH
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM




000
FXUS64 KLIX 270957
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
457 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A FAIRLY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TODAY TO NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DURING THE SAME PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL TAKE HOLD OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES AND THE
GULF COAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE CLEARING LINE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEARING MCCOMB AND
BATON ROUGE AS OF 4 AM. CLEARING WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR SURGES IN.
AFTER A COOL START WITH AN ADDED CHILL FROM THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...IT WILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY LATE MORNING UNDER THE WARM
LATE MARCH SUN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LEAVE LIGHTER AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
NORTH GULF COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK UP IN THE 70S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION EARLY MONDAY AND THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION
ON MONDAY. THE FORCING WILL BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.

A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T/STORMS. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SLOWEST PUSHING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND KEEPING LOW END CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KNEW. THERE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THRU THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS CLOUDS SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST THIS MORNING.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND SPEEDS ARE WELL IN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SFC HIGH WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WHICH WILL BE WEAKENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AIDE IN RELAXING THE WINDS. ATTM...IT
APPEARS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA AROUND MID
MORNING. SO HAVE THE ADVISORY EXPIRING THEN. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER OFFSHORE...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL ROTATE
BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE
AREA.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
             FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  41  68  49 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  69  45  71  53 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  68  43  67  49 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  67  51  69  57 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  68  45  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  42  65  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 270957
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
457 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A FAIRLY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TODAY TO NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DURING THE SAME PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL TAKE HOLD OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES AND THE
GULF COAST. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE CLEARING LINE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...NEARING MCCOMB AND
BATON ROUGE AS OF 4 AM. CLEARING WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR SURGES IN.
AFTER A COOL START WITH AN ADDED CHILL FROM THE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...IT WILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY LATE MORNING UNDER THE WARM
LATE MARCH SUN WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOW
HUMIDITY.

TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...EXCEPT MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

A FAST MOVING...CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LEAVE LIGHTER AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
NORTH GULF COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK UP IN THE 70S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION EARLY MONDAY AND THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION
ON MONDAY. THE FORCING WILL BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.

A LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND ADJACENT MEXICO ON TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...HOWEVER
THERE MAY BE AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T/STORMS. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
ON THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SLOWEST PUSHING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND KEEPING LOW END CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND CONTINUES SOUTH INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS. WINDS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KNEW. THERE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THRU THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS CLOUDS SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST THIS MORNING.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND SPEEDS ARE WELL IN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SFC HIGH WILL BE
QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WHICH WILL BE WEAKENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AIDE IN RELAXING THE WINDS. ATTM...IT
APPEARS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA AROUND MID
MORNING. SO HAVE THE ADVISORY EXPIRING THEN. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST A BIT LONGER OFFSHORE...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL ROTATE
BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAIN SITUATED EAST OF THE
AREA.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
             FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  41  68  49 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  69  45  71  53 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  68  43  67  49 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  67  51  69  57 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  68  45  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  42  65  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 270240
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
940 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A FAIRLY MOIST SOUNDING WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.22 INCHES. AN INVERSION WAS PRESENT
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. SOME INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT IN THE LOWER
AND MID LEVELS ABOVE THIS INVERSION. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE
INVERSION UP TO NEAR 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 500 MB
WITH A MAX WIND OF 110 KNOTS NEAR 160 MB. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WELL...THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF EFFECTIVELY KEPT ANY TSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT
NOW THAT THE FRONT IS ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA...A NARROW AND
BROKEN BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF
IT. INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-59 HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER BY
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS ALONG
AND EAT OF I-59 SAW SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TIL NOW...SO THE BAND MAY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THESE AREAS. SILL EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE BAND WILL BE MOVING AT A FAIRLY
DECENT CLIP.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD STILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ON TAP
WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...BUT SHOULD DROP FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
JUST WEST OF KMCB...A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING KNEW...KMSY AND KHUM. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT AFTER 0Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
NORTHERLY AND JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 03Z UNTIL 15Z. SFC HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE
AND SUPPORTING THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
THOUGH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD
AFTER THE SCA EXPIRES. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. WINDS NOT
LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE OVER EASTERN GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  42  64  42 /  40  20   0   0
BTR  75  45  67  46 /  50  20   0   0
ASD  74  49  67  44 /  70  30   0   0
MSY  74  51  67  51 /  70  30   0   0
GPT  73  50  67  46 /  70  40   0   0
PQL  75  51  67  43 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 270240
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
940 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A FAIRLY MOIST SOUNDING WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.22 INCHES. AN INVERSION WAS PRESENT
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. SOME INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT IN THE LOWER
AND MID LEVELS ABOVE THIS INVERSION. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE
INVERSION UP TO NEAR 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 500 MB
WITH A MAX WIND OF 110 KNOTS NEAR 160 MB. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WELL...THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF EFFECTIVELY KEPT ANY TSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT
NOW THAT THE FRONT IS ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA...A NARROW AND
BROKEN BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF
IT. INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-59 HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER BY
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS ALONG
AND EAT OF I-59 SAW SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TIL NOW...SO THE BAND MAY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THESE AREAS. SILL EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE BAND WILL BE MOVING AT A FAIRLY
DECENT CLIP.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD STILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ON TAP
WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...BUT SHOULD DROP FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
JUST WEST OF KMCB...A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING KNEW...KMSY AND KHUM. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT AFTER 0Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
NORTHERLY AND JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 03Z UNTIL 15Z. SFC HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE
AND SUPPORTING THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
THOUGH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD
AFTER THE SCA EXPIRES. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. WINDS NOT
LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE OVER EASTERN GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  42  64  42 /  40  20   0   0
BTR  75  45  67  46 /  50  20   0   0
ASD  74  49  67  44 /  70  30   0   0
MSY  74  51  67  51 /  70  30   0   0
GPT  73  50  67  46 /  70  40   0   0
PQL  75  51  67  43 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 270240
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
940 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A FAIRLY MOIST SOUNDING WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.22 INCHES. AN INVERSION WAS PRESENT
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. SOME INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT IN THE LOWER
AND MID LEVELS ABOVE THIS INVERSION. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE
INVERSION UP TO NEAR 500 MB. SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILED ABOVE 500 MB
WITH A MAX WIND OF 110 KNOTS NEAR 160 MB. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WELL...THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF EFFECTIVELY KEPT ANY TSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT
NOW THAT THE FRONT IS ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA...A NARROW AND
BROKEN BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF
IT. INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-59 HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER BY
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS ALONG
AND EAT OF I-59 SAW SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TIL NOW...SO THE BAND MAY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THESE AREAS. SILL EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE BAND WILL BE MOVING AT A FAIRLY
DECENT CLIP.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD STILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ON TAP
WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...BUT SHOULD DROP FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
JUST WEST OF KMCB...A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING KNEW...KMSY AND KHUM. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT AFTER 0Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
NORTHERLY AND JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 03Z UNTIL 15Z. SFC HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE
AND SUPPORTING THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
THOUGH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD
AFTER THE SCA EXPIRES. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. WINDS NOT
LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE OVER EASTERN GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  42  64  42 /  40  20   0   0
BTR  75  45  67  46 /  50  20   0   0
ASD  74  49  67  44 /  70  30   0   0
MSY  74  51  67  51 /  70  30   0   0
GPT  73  50  67  46 /  70  40   0   0
PQL  75  51  67  43 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 262015
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WELL...THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF EFFECTIVELY KEPT ANY TSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT
NOW THAT THE FRONT IS ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA...A NARROW AND
BROKEN BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF
IT. INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-59 HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER BY
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS ALONG
AND EAT OF I-59 SAW SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TIL NOW...SO THE BAND MAY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THESE AREAS. SILL EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE BAND WILL BE MOVING AT A FAIRLY
DECENT CLIP.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD STILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ON TAP
WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...BUT SHOULD DROP FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
JUST WEST OF KMCB...A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING KNEW...KMSY AND KHUM. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT AFTER 0Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
NORTHERLY AND JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 03Z UNTIL 15Z. SFC HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE
AND SUPPORTING THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
THOUGH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD
AFTER THE SCA EXPIRES. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. WINDS NOT
LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE OVER EASTERN GULF.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  64  42  71 /  20   0   0  10
BTR  45  67  46  75 /  20   0   0  10
ASD  49  67  44  70 /  30   0   0  10
MSY  51  67  51  72 /  30   0   0  10
GPT  50  67  46  67 /  40   0   0  10
PQL  51  67  43  68 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

AVIATION...13/MH
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM




000
FXUS64 KLIX 262015
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WELL...THE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF EFFECTIVELY KEPT ANY TSTORM
ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT
NOW THAT THE FRONT IS ENTERING THE LOCAL AREA...A NARROW AND
BROKEN BAND OF MOSTLY SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF
IT. INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-59 HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER BY
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS ALONG
AND EAT OF I-59 SAW SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TIL NOW...SO THE BAND MAY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THESE AREAS. SILL EXPECTING RAINFALL TOTALS
TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AS THE BAND WILL BE MOVING AT A FAIRLY
DECENT CLIP.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS THE FRONT BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD STILL BEGIN WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY TO BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ON TAP
WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH. NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST...BUT SHOULD DROP FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
JUST WEST OF KMCB...A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECTING KNEW...KMSY AND KHUM. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT AFTER 0Z. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
VFR CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
NORTHERLY AND JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 03Z UNTIL 15Z. SFC HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING WINDS TO EASE
AND SUPPORTING THE SHORT DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...
THOUGH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A PERIOD
AFTER THE SCA EXPIRES. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD. WINDS NOT
LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STAYING IN PLACE OVER EASTERN GULF.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  64  42  71 /  20   0   0  10
BTR  45  67  46  75 /  20   0   0  10
ASD  49  67  44  70 /  30   0   0  10
MSY  51  67  51  72 /  30   0   0  10
GPT  50  67  46  67 /  40   0   0  10
PQL  51  67  43  68 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

AVIATION...13/MH
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





000
FXUS64 KLIX 261020
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
520 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TWO DIFFERENT STREAMS OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DIVERGENCE AREAS
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLEW UP EARLIER OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM AND THIS HAS QUICKLY
EXPANDED EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF TERREBONNE PARISH. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MORE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION
WILL DRIVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL NEARLY COUPLE WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET. THERE MAY BE A ZONE WITH LESS CONVECTION IN BETWEEN
THE EXPANDING AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRENDS WITH CATEGORICAL RANGE POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND LIKELY
ELSEWHERE...AND KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH MUCAPES UP NEAR 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -5 AROUND 4
PM TODAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THEN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH COASTAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

A FAIRLY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY TO NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE HOLD OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MID 60S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...LOW
HUMIDITY AND NORTH BREEZES. FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR 50 SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...

THE ECMWF HAS A CLIPPER TYPE WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF
AMOUNTS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM AND IS DRY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
WITH REGARDS TO THE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES THAT RIDE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE
ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS GOING INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST AROUND VERMILION BAY
AND MOVING NORTHEAST. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE SOME IMPACT FROM
RAIN BY AROUND 15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD
BUT COULD HAVE TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES WITH MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. RAIN WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE RAINFREE BY 06Z. LOW CEILINGS OF
AROUND 1500KFT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT ATTM BUT WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO SOUTHWEST AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE
LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO
20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 30S. WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THIS MORNING TO START AT 03Z. SFC
HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...SO
LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY MID MORNING. ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW
STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT NO ADVISORY NEEDED AS
SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND
TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS
NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
             FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  42  64  42 /  60  30   0   0
BTR  75  45  67  46 /  60  30   0   0
ASD  74  48  67  43 /  70  40  10   0
MSY  74  51  67  51 /  70  40  10   0
GPT  73  50  67  45 /  70  40  10   0
PQL  75  51  67  41 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 261020
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
520 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TWO DIFFERENT STREAMS OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DIVERGENCE AREAS
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLEW UP EARLIER OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM AND THIS HAS QUICKLY
EXPANDED EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF TERREBONNE PARISH. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MORE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION
WILL DRIVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL NEARLY COUPLE WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET. THERE MAY BE A ZONE WITH LESS CONVECTION IN BETWEEN
THE EXPANDING AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRENDS WITH CATEGORICAL RANGE POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND LIKELY
ELSEWHERE...AND KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH MUCAPES UP NEAR 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -5 AROUND 4
PM TODAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THEN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH COASTAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

A FAIRLY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY TO NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE HOLD OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MID 60S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...LOW
HUMIDITY AND NORTH BREEZES. FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR 50 SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...

THE ECMWF HAS A CLIPPER TYPE WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF
AMOUNTS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM AND IS DRY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
WITH REGARDS TO THE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES THAT RIDE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE
ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS GOING INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST AROUND VERMILION BAY
AND MOVING NORTHEAST. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE SOME IMPACT FROM
RAIN BY AROUND 15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD
BUT COULD HAVE TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES WITH MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. RAIN WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE RAINFREE BY 06Z. LOW CEILINGS OF
AROUND 1500KFT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT ATTM BUT WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO SOUTHWEST AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE
LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO
20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 30S. WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THIS MORNING TO START AT 03Z. SFC
HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...SO
LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY MID MORNING. ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW
STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT NO ADVISORY NEEDED AS
SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND
TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS
NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
             FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  42  64  42 /  60  30   0   0
BTR  75  45  67  46 /  60  30   0   0
ASD  74  48  67  43 /  70  40  10   0
MSY  74  51  67  51 /  70  40  10   0
GPT  73  50  67  45 /  70  40  10   0
PQL  75  51  67  41 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 261020
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
520 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TWO DIFFERENT STREAMS OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DIVERGENCE AREAS
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

ONE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BLEW UP EARLIER OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM AND THIS HAS QUICKLY
EXPANDED EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF TERREBONNE PARISH. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MORE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION
WILL DRIVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL NEARLY COUPLE WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET. THERE MAY BE A ZONE WITH LESS CONVECTION IN BETWEEN
THE EXPANDING AREA TO THE SOUTH AND THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRENDS WITH CATEGORICAL RANGE POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND LIKELY
ELSEWHERE...AND KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL BULK SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SLIGHT TO MODERATE
WITH MUCAPES UP NEAR 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -5 AROUND 4
PM TODAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THEN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND
SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PULLS
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH COASTAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

A FAIRLY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM JUST
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY TO NEAR THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE HOLD OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN STATES. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE MID 60S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...LOW
HUMIDITY AND NORTH BREEZES. FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT NEAR 50 SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...

THE ECMWF HAS A CLIPPER TYPE WEAK SYSTEM AND LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF
AMOUNTS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM AND IS DRY. HAVE MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
WITH REGARDS TO THE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES THAT RIDE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND A BETTER CHANCE
ON WEDNESDAY AS MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS GOING INTO
THE LATER MORNING HOURS AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SHOWERS APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST AROUND VERMILION BAY
AND MOVING NORTHEAST. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE SOME IMPACT FROM
RAIN BY AROUND 15Z. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD
BUT COULD HAVE TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES WITH MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION. RAIN WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE RAINFREE BY 06Z. LOW CEILINGS OF
AROUND 1500KFT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT ATTM BUT WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO SOUTHWEST AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE
LOCATIONS AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO
20+ KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE LOW 30S. WILL BE ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THIS MORNING TO START AT 03Z. SFC
HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND FRONT...SO
LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY MID MORNING. ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW
STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BUT NO ADVISORY NEEDED AS
SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND
TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. WINDS
NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
             FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  42  64  42 /  60  30   0   0
BTR  75  45  67  46 /  60  30   0   0
ASD  74  48  67  43 /  70  40  10   0
MSY  74  51  67  51 /  70  40  10   0
GPT  73  50  67  45 /  70  40  10   0
PQL  75  51  67  41 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY
     FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 260145
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
845 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG INVERSION PERSISTED NEAR 85H. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE REMAINED LOW AT 0.71 INCH. SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILED
BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
OBSERVED ABOVE IT. THE MAX WIND WAS 100 KNOTS AT 150 MB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  58  74  42 /  10  10  60  30
BTR  79  60  75  45 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  61  75  48 /  10  10  60  40
MSY  78  64  75  50 /  10  10  60  40
GPT  76  63  74  49 /  10  10  70  40
PQL  77  61  76  49 /  10  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 260145
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
845 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG INVERSION PERSISTED NEAR 85H. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE REMAINED LOW AT 0.71 INCH. SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILED
BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
OBSERVED ABOVE IT. THE MAX WIND WAS 100 KNOTS AT 150 MB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  58  74  42 /  10  10  60  30
BTR  79  60  75  45 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  61  75  48 /  10  10  60  40
MSY  78  64  75  50 /  10  10  60  40
GPT  76  63  74  49 /  10  10  70  40
PQL  77  61  76  49 /  10  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 260145
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
845 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG INVERSION PERSISTED NEAR 85H. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE REMAINED LOW AT 0.71 INCH. SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILED
BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
OBSERVED ABOVE IT. THE MAX WIND WAS 100 KNOTS AT 150 MB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  58  74  42 /  10  10  60  30
BTR  79  60  75  45 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  61  75  48 /  10  10  60  40
MSY  78  64  75  50 /  10  10  60  40
GPT  76  63  74  49 /  10  10  70  40
PQL  77  61  76  49 /  10  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 260145
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
845 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
AREA. A STRONG INVERSION PERSISTED NEAR 85H. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE REMAINED LOW AT 0.71 INCH. SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILED
BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
OBSERVED ABOVE IT. THE MAX WIND WAS 100 KNOTS AT 150 MB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  58  74  42 /  10  10  60  30
BTR  79  60  75  45 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  61  75  48 /  10  10  60  40
MSY  78  64  75  50 /  10  10  60  40
GPT  76  63  74  49 /  10  10  70  40
PQL  77  61  76  49 /  10  10  70  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 252040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF FOG ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND MENTION IN THE ZONES. WILL HOLD OFF ON DENSE WORDING
THOUGH AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT COULD
MOVE IN EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE.

BROAD SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST/NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD START DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ARISES FROM
THE FACT THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECONDARY IMPULSE AND
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...IT COULD ROB THE FRONT OF MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE
AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS. THINK
THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS...BUT WILL KEEP QPF FORECAST
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE FOR MOST LAND
AREAS. TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BEING IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CUMULUS FIELD NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES VERY EVIDENT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON WHEN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT REACH THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY GENERAL IFR
CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 09Z...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY IN THE MVFR RANGE AS CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING
AT MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE GULF TOMORROW. PLANNING ON
CARRYING SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE 00Z FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 18
HOURS. WINDS WILL VEER THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
             FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  74  42  65 /  10  60  30   0
BTR  60  75  45  68 /  10  60  20   0
ASD  61  75  48  67 /  10  60  40   0
MSY  64  75  50  67 /  10  60  40  10
GPT  63  74  49  67 /  10  70  40  10
PQL  61  76  49  67 /  10  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM




000
FXUS64 KLIX 252040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE ARE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF FOG ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE TONIGHT...SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND MENTION IN THE ZONES. WILL HOLD OFF ON DENSE WORDING
THOUGH AS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF THURSDAY/S COLD FRONT COULD
MOVE IN EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE.

BROAD SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST/NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD START DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ARISES FROM
THE FACT THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECONDARY IMPULSE AND
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...IT COULD ROB THE FRONT OF MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE
AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS. THINK
THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME RAINFALL...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS...BUT WILL KEEP QPF FORECAST
GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH RANGE FOR MOST LAND
AREAS. TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY MIDNIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BEING IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CUMULUS FIELD NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING...WITH SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES VERY EVIDENT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON WHEN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT REACH THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY GENERAL IFR
CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 09Z...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY IN THE MVFR RANGE AS CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING
AT MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE GULF TOMORROW. PLANNING ON
CARRYING SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THE 00Z FORECAST
PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 18
HOURS. WINDS WILL VEER THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
             FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  74  42  65 /  10  60  30   0
BTR  60  75  45  68 /  10  60  20   0
ASD  61  75  48  67 /  10  60  40   0
MSY  64  75  50  67 /  10  60  40  10
GPT  63  74  49  67 /  10  70  40  10
PQL  61  76  49  67 /  10  70  50  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





000
FXUS64 KLIX 251738
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1238 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

MORNING FOG HAS LIFTED...ALTHOUGH A FEW REMNANTS NEAR KNEW AND
KMSY. RATHER HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH BASES BETWEEN FL035 AND
FL045. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON
WHEN CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACH THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL
CARRY GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 09Z...LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. VISIBILITIES
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT CEILINGS LIKELY IN THE MVFR RANGE AS
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINTING AT MOST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE GULF
TOMORROW. PLANNING ON CARRYING SHOWERS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER...BUT THREAT NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY CATEGORICALLY THAT FAR OUT. 35



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED THIS MORNING IN A SFC INVERSION
THROUGH JUST THE FIRST 006 FT. THE SHALLOW SFC LAYER AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING. JUST ABOVE THE CALM SFC
CONDITIONS WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MARINE LAYER UP TO AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 055 FT. ABOVE THIS THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS 105 KTS AT 180 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATING PACKAGE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR THURSDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 251257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED THIS MORNING IN A SFC INVERSION
THROUGH JUST THE FIRST 006 FT. THE SHALLOW SFC LAYER AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING. JUST ABOVE THE CALM SFC
CONDITIONS WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MARINE LAYER UP TO AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 055 FT. ABOVE THIS THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS 105 KTS AT 180 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATING PACKAGE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ039-040-
     049-050-057>064-067>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 251257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED THIS MORNING IN A SFC INVERSION
THROUGH JUST THE FIRST 006 FT. THE SHALLOW SFC LAYER AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING. JUST ABOVE THE CALM SFC
CONDITIONS WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MARINE LAYER UP TO AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 055 FT. ABOVE THIS THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS 105 KTS AT 180 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATING PACKAGE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ039-040-
     049-050-057>064-067>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 251257
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED THIS MORNING IN A SFC INVERSION
THROUGH JUST THE FIRST 006 FT. THE SHALLOW SFC LAYER AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING. JUST ABOVE THE CALM SFC
CONDITIONS WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MARINE LAYER UP TO AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 055 FT. ABOVE THIS THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY. PEAK WIND IS 105 KTS AT 180 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATING PACKAGE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ039-040-
     049-050-057>064-067>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 251137
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATING PACKAGE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ039-040-
     049-050-057>064-067>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 251137
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATING PACKAGE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ039-040-
     049-050-057>064-067>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 251137
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATING PACKAGE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ039-040-
     049-050-057>064-067>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 251137
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATING PACKAGE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID-
MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ039-040-
     049-050-057>064-067>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 250913
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
MEFFER





000
FXUS64 KLIX 250913
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MARINE LAYER WAS STEADILY ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH SOME
RADIATIONAL AND ADVECTIVE FOG IMPACTING COOLER NEAR-WATER
AREAS...LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BAYOUS. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING YIELDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TODAY. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BUT BECOMING DISRUPTED AT TIMES BY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
MAY DEVELOP ON CONVERGENT ZONES WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MODELS WERE TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION THAT
MAY SEE RAINFALL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER...THEREBY HOLDING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE
GONE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 40S
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT ON STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH MODERATES AND MOVES EAST WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
MORNINGS ONCE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RATHER STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS IN TEXAS THAT EVENTUALLY BRINGS
BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT SHOULD BE
LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH RIVER
INFLUENCES WHICH WILL LIMIT LOCATIONS IMPACTED TO BTR...MSY/NEW
AND HUM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MID
LEVEL DECKS RISING TO JUST CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THE AFTERNOON. MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
VEER OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE MARINE LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY JUMP UP TO 20+ KNOTS AND THUS EXPECTING TO NEED
TO ISSUE A SCA. SFC HIGH WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND FRONT...SO LIKELY ENDING THE ADVISORY BY AROUND NOON.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE FLOW STILL TO PERSIST THOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL ROTATE BACK AROUND TO OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. WINDS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING IN PLACE. MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  57  75  44 /  10  10  60  20
BTR  79  59  76  47 /   0  10  60  20
ASD  78  59  77  49 /  10  10  60  30
MSY  78  63  77  53 /  10  10  60  30
GPT  76  61  76  50 /  10  10  60  40
PQL  77  59  78  50 /  10  10  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
MEFFER




000
FXUS64 KLIX 250455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AT SURF UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AT 6500 FEET. MIXING WILL HAMPER SOME RADIONAL FOG FROM
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY COASTAL TAF SITES. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE INLAND
AT MCB AND BTR AND MIST MAY RESTRICT TO IFR CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY
AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z AT THESE LOCALES. SURFACE
HEATING...SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING EAST OVER THE AREA WILL ERODE LOW AND MID LAYER CEILINGS
AT ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. 18.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 250455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AT SURF UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AT 6500 FEET. MIXING WILL HAMPER SOME RADIONAL FOG FROM
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY COASTAL TAF SITES. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE INLAND
AT MCB AND BTR AND MIST MAY RESTRICT TO IFR CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY
AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z AT THESE LOCALES. SURFACE
HEATING...SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING EAST OVER THE AREA WILL ERODE LOW AND MID LAYER CEILINGS
AT ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. 18.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 250455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AT SURF UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AT 6500 FEET. MIXING WILL HAMPER SOME RADIONAL FOG FROM
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY COASTAL TAF SITES. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE INLAND
AT MCB AND BTR AND MIST MAY RESTRICT TO IFR CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY
AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z AT THESE LOCALES. SURFACE
HEATING...SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING EAST OVER THE AREA WILL ERODE LOW AND MID LAYER CEILINGS
AT ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. 18.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 250455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AT SURF UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION AT 6500 FEET. MIXING WILL HAMPER SOME RADIONAL FOG FROM
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY COASTAL TAF SITES. WINDS MAY DECOUPLE INLAND
AT MCB AND BTR AND MIST MAY RESTRICT TO IFR CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY
AT TIMES BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z AT THESE LOCALES. SURFACE
HEATING...SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND THERMAL TROUGH
SLIDING EAST OVER THE AREA WILL ERODE LOW AND MID LAYER CEILINGS
AT ALL TAF SITES BY 17Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. 18.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 250148
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
848 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 0.84 INCH AND THERE WAS A STRONG
INVERSION LOCATED JUST BELOW 800 MB. SOME MOISTURE WAS PRESENT
BELOW THIS INVERSION...BUT VERY DRY AIR WAS LOCATED AT ALL LEVELS
ABOVE IT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED BELOW THE
INVERSION...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH AROUND 850MB HAS KEPT AN ELEVATED
INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH DAY. AFTER REVIEWING MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOT FROM SEVERAL MODEL SOURCES...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP A BROKEN STRATUS DECK IN PLACE FOR THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THIS THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM AND THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO
INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS PUMPING WARMER OFFSHORE
AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE INVERSION...AND THUS LOWERING
THE OVERALL RISK OF FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A POTENT
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN QUICKLY RACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OMEGA IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER VERTICAL
UPDRAFTS...BUT OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE VERY LIMITED AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
AT MOST...A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD DEVELOP...PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH.

STRONG DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
BRING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT A 15 DEGREE DROP FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL WILL SETTLE IN ON
FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE RULE
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
ON SUNDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SET UP
BY MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...THE COLD POOL WILL ALSO PULL
AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON SUNDAY...AND THEN WARMING BACK TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMS ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
COOL...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS CLOSER TO AVERAGE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

BOTH THE EURO AND GFS INDICATE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS
HAS A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE EURO HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND OPEN TROUGH MOVING
INTO TEXAS. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH...HAVE WENT WITH A
BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IN THE DAY 7 AND 8 PERIOD. EXPECT TO SEE WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TUESDAY AND DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAKES HOLD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

AVIATION...

RATHER EXTENSIVE CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPED ON THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. TWO DIFFERENT LAYERS OF
CLOUDS...ONE THIN BAND TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION AT 850
MB...AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FEET. WHILE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE 2500 FOOT LAYER PROVIDING MVFR
CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD LOSE AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT MOISTURE FURTHER BELOW THE
850 MB INVERSION...CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED NEAR 2500 FEET...COULD
BUILD DOWN ENOUGH TO CREATE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. TWO SCENARIOS EXIST...ONE WOULD BE FOR THE 1500-2000 FOOT
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL...THE OTHER WOULD BE FOR SKIES TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG AT MOST
TERMINALS. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TRENDS TOWARD
THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS AROUND 15-16Z TOMORROW. 35

MARINE...

BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THIS
PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOME OR
MOST OF  THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST BY THE
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT COULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  52  79  56 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  78  53  80  57 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  77  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  76  58  79  62 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  75  56  77  59 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  76  54  78  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 250148
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
848 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 0.84 INCH AND THERE WAS A STRONG
INVERSION LOCATED JUST BELOW 800 MB. SOME MOISTURE WAS PRESENT
BELOW THIS INVERSION...BUT VERY DRY AIR WAS LOCATED AT ALL LEVELS
ABOVE IT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED BELOW THE
INVERSION...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH AROUND 850MB HAS KEPT AN ELEVATED
INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH DAY. AFTER REVIEWING MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOT FROM SEVERAL MODEL SOURCES...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP A BROKEN STRATUS DECK IN PLACE FOR THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THIS THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM AND THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO
INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS PUMPING WARMER OFFSHORE
AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE INVERSION...AND THUS LOWERING
THE OVERALL RISK OF FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A POTENT
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN QUICKLY RACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OMEGA IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER VERTICAL
UPDRAFTS...BUT OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE VERY LIMITED AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
AT MOST...A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD DEVELOP...PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH.

STRONG DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
BRING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT A 15 DEGREE DROP FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL WILL SETTLE IN ON
FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE RULE
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
ON SUNDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SET UP
BY MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...THE COLD POOL WILL ALSO PULL
AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON SUNDAY...AND THEN WARMING BACK TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMS ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
COOL...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS CLOSER TO AVERAGE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

BOTH THE EURO AND GFS INDICATE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS
HAS A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE EURO HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND OPEN TROUGH MOVING
INTO TEXAS. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH...HAVE WENT WITH A
BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IN THE DAY 7 AND 8 PERIOD. EXPECT TO SEE WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TUESDAY AND DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAKES HOLD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

AVIATION...

RATHER EXTENSIVE CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPED ON THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. TWO DIFFERENT LAYERS OF
CLOUDS...ONE THIN BAND TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION AT 850
MB...AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FEET. WHILE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE 2500 FOOT LAYER PROVIDING MVFR
CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD LOSE AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT MOISTURE FURTHER BELOW THE
850 MB INVERSION...CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED NEAR 2500 FEET...COULD
BUILD DOWN ENOUGH TO CREATE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. TWO SCENARIOS EXIST...ONE WOULD BE FOR THE 1500-2000 FOOT
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL...THE OTHER WOULD BE FOR SKIES TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG AT MOST
TERMINALS. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TRENDS TOWARD
THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS AROUND 15-16Z TOMORROW. 35

MARINE...

BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THIS
PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOME OR
MOST OF  THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST BY THE
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT COULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  52  79  56 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  78  53  80  57 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  77  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  76  58  79  62 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  75  56  77  59 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  76  54  78  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 250148
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
848 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 0.84 INCH AND THERE WAS A STRONG
INVERSION LOCATED JUST BELOW 800 MB. SOME MOISTURE WAS PRESENT
BELOW THIS INVERSION...BUT VERY DRY AIR WAS LOCATED AT ALL LEVELS
ABOVE IT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS OBSERVED BELOW THE
INVERSION...WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT THERMAL TROUGH AROUND 850MB HAS KEPT AN ELEVATED
INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH DAY. AFTER REVIEWING MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PLOT FROM SEVERAL MODEL SOURCES...HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP A BROKEN STRATUS DECK IN PLACE FOR THE AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THIS THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM AND THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO
INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS PUMPING WARMER OFFSHORE
AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERSION FORMS. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING...LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE INVERSION...AND THUS LOWERING
THE OVERALL RISK OF FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM...WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS A POTENT
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO SEE A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN QUICKLY RACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OFFSHORE...WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OMEGA IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER VERTICAL
UPDRAFTS...BUT OVERALL SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE VERY LIMITED AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT TO
SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
AT MOST...A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD DEVELOP...PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH.

STRONG DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL
BRING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT A 15 DEGREE DROP FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL WILL SETTLE IN ON
FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE RULE
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
ON SUNDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SET UP
BY MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...THE COLD POOL WILL ALSO PULL
AWAY FROM THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY...WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES ON SUNDAY...AND THEN WARMING BACK TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMS ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
COOL...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS CLOSER TO AVERAGE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

BOTH THE EURO AND GFS INDICATE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE GFS
HAS A MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE EURO HAS A MUCH WEAKER AND OPEN TROUGH MOVING
INTO TEXAS. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH...HAVE WENT WITH A
BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IN THE DAY 7 AND 8 PERIOD. EXPECT TO SEE WARMER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN TUESDAY AND DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAKES HOLD...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

AVIATION...

RATHER EXTENSIVE CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPED ON THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING. TWO DIFFERENT LAYERS OF
CLOUDS...ONE THIN BAND TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION AT 850
MB...AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FEET. WHILE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE 2500 FOOT LAYER PROVIDING MVFR
CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD LOSE AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUDS AFTER
SUNSET...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT MOISTURE FURTHER BELOW THE
850 MB INVERSION...CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED NEAR 2500 FEET...COULD
BUILD DOWN ENOUGH TO CREATE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. TWO SCENARIOS EXIST...ONE WOULD BE FOR THE 1500-2000 FOOT
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL...THE OTHER WOULD BE FOR SKIES TO CLEAR
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG AT MOST
TERMINALS. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TRENDS TOWARD
THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS AROUND 15-16Z TOMORROW. 35

MARINE...

BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OVER THIS
PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOME OR
MOST OF  THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST BY THE
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT COULD BE IN A WEAKENING STATE AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  52  79  56 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  78  53  80  57 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  77  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  76  58  79  62 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  75  56  77  59 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  76  54  78  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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